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Deciphering the Cubs’ payroll and an early read on Juan Soto and Corbin Burnes · North Side Territory: A Chicago Cubs Podcast

0:00
Speaker 1: They're not at a point right now where they're waving
0:02
Speaker 1: the white flag. Drew Smiley helps this team, Hector and
0:05
Speaker 1: Aris helps his team. That's gonna set some fans. And
0:08
Speaker 1: I just said that. Welcome into Northside Territory, Powell Territory
0:16
Speaker 1: Networks Cubs Podcast. I'm Saade Sharma with Patrick Mooney, where
0:21
Speaker 1: your Cubs beat writers over at the Athletic Patrick, we
0:24
Speaker 1: had another weekend of Cubs baseball. This was the start
0:28
Speaker 1: of eighteen straight against losing teams in a vacuum. That's
0:33
Speaker 1: perfectly acceptable. Series, winning two three Sunday leaves a bad
0:37
Speaker 1: taste in everyone's mouth. I think one nothing losses are
0:40
Speaker 1: not not gonna work anytime like that. Those are tough
0:44
Speaker 1: to swallow. And I think Craig Council kind of summed
0:47
Speaker 1: it up best missed opportunity. When you pitch that well,
0:50
Speaker 1: you got to come up with a big hit, find
0:52
Speaker 1: a way to scratch some runs across. I know the
0:54
Speaker 1: wind was blowing in on Sunday, not perfect, you know,
0:58
Speaker 1: offensive environment. The Blue Jays were able to get that
1:01
Speaker 1: one run. The Cubs got nothing, and that's kind of
1:05
Speaker 1: been you know, a recurring theme. Uh yeah, fifteen against
1:10
Speaker 1: bad teams. You know, we can do the math and
1:13
Speaker 1: then say, you know, go eleven and four, twelve and three,
1:15
Speaker 1: and we can talk about where they are after that,
1:19
Speaker 1: but you know that they have to get hot here
1:21
Speaker 1: that there's no excuses to be made. I think they
1:23
Speaker 1: know that there's going to need to be a couple
1:26
Speaker 1: sweeps in this next two week stretch. Yeah.
1:32
Speaker 2: I mean at the Athletic we have this ongoing kind
1:35
Speaker 2: of set piece feature that we do across various beats
1:40
Speaker 2: and you know.
1:41
Speaker 3: Called takeaways in mind from Rinley Field was are you ready.
1:45
Speaker 1: For some football?
1:47
Speaker 2: Because it just felt like once again as a game
1:51
Speaker 2: you have to win, you have to bang that one.
1:54
Speaker 2: And it's just like, you know, we already went through
1:57
Speaker 2: this in June when you very act really laid out
2:00
Speaker 2: this is the path. These are the all the bad
2:03
Speaker 2: teams they're playing doing air quotes there, like this is.
2:06
Speaker 3: Where they could really clean up, and they didn't this weekend.
2:10
Speaker 2: You know, like it just you see where they are
2:14
Speaker 2: like two weeks after, you know, really any point in
2:18
Speaker 2: the calendar, right, it's like, okay, they creep up, you
2:22
Speaker 2: know to one game.
2:24
Speaker 3: Underneath five hundred, then.
2:26
Speaker 2: Get swept in Cleveland then two or three, like the
2:28
Speaker 2: math just doesn't really work. I think we are very
2:36
Speaker 2: much gonna be open minded here. Well, we'll see what happens.
2:38
Speaker 2: We'll cover the games, we'll write about what we find interesting.
2:42
Speaker 2: But this idea of winning like ten in a row
2:47
Speaker 2: or you know, winning fifteen of eighteen, just do not
2:52
Speaker 2: see it happening. It has not happened yet, no reason
2:57
Speaker 2: to think it's going to. Like, you know, enjoy hard Knocks,
3:02
Speaker 2: watch Caleb highlights on your phone, read us on the
3:07
Speaker 2: athletic and listen to us here on the Foul Territory Network.
3:10
Speaker 3: We'll have you entirely covered.
3:11
Speaker 2: I think, like sweating the games, it's just not there,
3:17
Speaker 2: Like the energy was not there. That's the kind of
3:19
Speaker 2: the joke that I made of, you know, Robbie Gold's
3:22
Speaker 2: was kind of the loudest year I heard or noticed
3:25
Speaker 2: ye the network, and.
3:27
Speaker 1: I thought that actually stood out to me, Like I like,
3:30
Speaker 1: I kind of like lifted my head up for my screen.
3:33
Speaker 1: I was like, what's going on?
3:34
Speaker 3: Yeah, why okay, here we go and nothing.
3:37
Speaker 2: It's him, the true Chicago guy, you know, high school
3:40
Speaker 2: football coach in the area. Now, it's just like it's
3:43
Speaker 2: how quietly they went down, and then even you know,
3:46
Speaker 2: walking you felt it walking into that clubhouse like in
3:51
Speaker 2: in nineteen when they collapsed, or you could even though
3:55
Speaker 2: you didn't have clubhouse access during twenty one. I mean,
4:00
Speaker 2: I mean, Wilson Cantrier's basically broke through that zoom screen
4:03
Speaker 2: to you know, make you feel how awkward and distracted.
4:07
Speaker 3: This is more just you know, there's this team that
4:12
Speaker 3: was going.
4:12
Speaker 2: To be around five hundred and if they got a
4:14
Speaker 2: couple of breaks, maybe they'd sneak in, and they didn't,
4:17
Speaker 2: maybe a little below like I don't know, not a
4:21
Speaker 2: whole lot of uh, I don't know, not urgency, but
4:25
Speaker 2: just like desperation.
4:26
Speaker 3: You just don't feel that around this team or in
4:27
Speaker 3: the stadium.
4:28
Speaker 1: Yeah, no, no, I'm not getting what's interesting is is, Yeah,
4:33
Speaker 1: I think that this team is what they kind of expected,
4:37
Speaker 1: maybe not the way it's played out exactly, but I
4:42
Speaker 1: mean what external projections had this team around eighty two
4:47
Speaker 1: ish wins that's where they're going to end up. I
4:49
Speaker 1: don't think the internal projections were that different either, which
4:54
Speaker 1: tells me a lot. You know that they're not they're
4:56
Speaker 1: not going all in, that they haven't really pushed to
5:00
Speaker 1: a level where you want to get to a point
5:03
Speaker 1: where and I think I've said this, I can't remember
5:05
Speaker 1: if I said it when when you were gone, Patrick,
5:07
Speaker 1: but what you want to get to is a level
5:10
Speaker 1: of like your projections, say, like eighty nine ninety ninety
5:14
Speaker 1: one wins. It's hard to get even more than that.
5:17
Speaker 1: It just is as far as projections go, Like projections
5:19
Speaker 1: would have to be really aggressive to be above that.
5:21
Speaker 1: But you want to be in the eighty eight to
5:23
Speaker 1: ninety two range. If you're in the if you're at
5:25
Speaker 1: ninety two, those are really good projections. I'm saying, like
5:28
Speaker 1: eighty eight. The way teams look at it, it's like
5:30
Speaker 1: your plus or minus fourish right by like just randomness
5:35
Speaker 1: of baseball and stuff like that, injuries and things like that.
5:37
Speaker 1: You're if you go further in any direction, then things
5:40
Speaker 1: either went really against you really for you, right, Like
5:44
Speaker 1: the Giant season from twenty whatever two or twenty one,
5:48
Speaker 1: that that's right, yeah, yeah, yeah, the one where they
5:52
Speaker 1: want like one hundred and seven, Yeah that was twenty one. Yeah,
5:55
Speaker 1: So like that, that's like a ninety ninth percentile thing
5:57
Speaker 1: where everything goes right and everything clicks right. You don't
6:00
Speaker 1: project that so so weird things happen plus or minus.
6:06
Speaker 1: I think this in the end, We've been saying it
6:09
Speaker 1: for weeks, but I expect them to be around eighty
6:11
Speaker 1: two eighty three wins. They're right there. They got this
6:13
Speaker 1: easy stretch. They'll probably end up like at five hundred,
6:16
Speaker 1: a little above, a little below. Like they are what
6:19
Speaker 1: they are, And what's frustrating I think for fans is
6:23
Speaker 1: is like, well, why aren't you building a team that
6:27
Speaker 1: projects for eighty eight to ninety wins? Like And I
6:30
Speaker 1: think fans just want that that fans just expect that.
6:34
Speaker 1: Perhaps that's what this offseason will be. I don't think
6:38
Speaker 1: they're going to have the spending spree that fans want,
6:41
Speaker 1: but they need to build a team that fans feel
6:44
Speaker 1: better about, and they need to get a little bit
6:47
Speaker 1: closer to having a team that you project to be
6:52
Speaker 1: where it needs to be.
6:54
Speaker 2: I think when you get into that, I mean you
6:56
Speaker 2: have that people running on the Athletic Tuesday morning. It
7:03
Speaker 2: addresses comments that team president Jed Hoyer and general manager
7:08
Speaker 2: Carter Hawkins made on six seventy, the team's flagship radio station,
7:12
Speaker 2: of how the team's expected to be over this year's
7:15
Speaker 2: Luxury tax threshold, which we had a sense it was
7:21
Speaker 2: kind of trending in that direction. It's an ongoing calculation,
7:24
Speaker 2: but like, what did you find out in your latest round.
7:28
Speaker 3: Of reporting, and like what is the rationale behind that?
7:33
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean what I found out isn't too crazy,
7:37
Speaker 1: uh as far as what we've all already known. And
7:41
Speaker 1: like I went back to like I was surprised at
7:44
Speaker 1: how the reaction was to them saying that, right, like
7:47
Speaker 1: it like what this is? Like people were shocked by this?
7:50
Speaker 1: And I went back to piece you and I wrote
7:53
Speaker 1: back in February, like three graphs down, we say, with
7:58
Speaker 1: the addition of Bellinger, the Cubs are not pushing up
8:00
Speaker 1: against the luxury tax. In fact, when you factor in
8:03
Speaker 1: all the roster turn that happens over the course of
8:06
Speaker 1: the season, there is an understanding that they're essentially over it.
8:09
Speaker 1: Like that's like that that was written on February I believe,
8:14
Speaker 1: twenty sixth, right, Like we yes, yes, we wrote this
8:18
Speaker 1: before the season started, right after Bellinger was signed. And
8:21
Speaker 1: that's kind of what Carter and Jed were both saying
8:23
Speaker 1: on the radio. Once they signed Ballinger, they knew they
8:26
Speaker 1: were essentially over And that's like I think what's really
8:30
Speaker 1: hard to understand and like I think people just think
8:33
Speaker 1: this is the number, this is what the salaries are,
8:37
Speaker 1: this is the CBT number. It just doesn't work that way.
8:41
Speaker 1: It's more complex than even like the best like the
8:44
Speaker 1: best reporters or like even front office people really full
8:48
Speaker 1: like they have like when Carter said, like they have
8:51
Speaker 1: people on this, and I think people like made fun
8:53
Speaker 1: of it, like oh what kind of like who do
8:55
Speaker 1: you need on that? Like it's complicated because so when
8:59
Speaker 1: someone goes on the sixty day iluh, they that counts
9:04
Speaker 1: against it, right, like that's someone and then you have
9:06
Speaker 1: to add someone to the forty man and then you
9:08
Speaker 1: call them up and then that like that's all projected.
9:10
Speaker 1: They expect that it's called like they look back at
9:13
Speaker 1: injury trends and say like, well, how much churn should
9:16
Speaker 1: we expect? How much should we like go through? But
9:19
Speaker 1: then there's also things that you don't even like I
9:21
Speaker 1: didn't really fully understand that. I kind of like I
9:23
Speaker 1: remember seeing the CBT once and like what is that?
9:26
Speaker 1: And it's like player benefits are part of this, and
9:29
Speaker 1: like I was like enough to yeah, well there's there's that.
9:32
Speaker 1: There's like say like someone needs like there's some some
9:38
Speaker 1: reason why they need like a private jet, and they
9:39
Speaker 1: give them private jet hours. That's a player benefit. Say
9:43
Speaker 1: someone has a suite because their families coming into town.
9:46
Speaker 1: That's that's a benefit for them. Things like that, Like
9:49
Speaker 1: that goes towards the CBT. So it's all like all
9:52
Speaker 1: these things add up over the course of the year.
9:55
Speaker 1: They knew they were going over the I think the
9:58
Speaker 1: bottom line is what I what I found out is like,
10:01
Speaker 1: this is their budget. They got a budget. It was
10:03
Speaker 1: over the first threshold, and it was just like, so,
10:06
Speaker 1: we're going to spend at that level. So it wasn't
10:09
Speaker 1: like this came as a shock. It wasn't like Tom
10:12
Speaker 1: Rickets is like, hey, what are you doing? You know,
10:15
Speaker 1: like everyone knew that this is the budget. It was
10:18
Speaker 1: over that two hundred and thirty seven million dollar threshold,
10:21
Speaker 1: and that's where they are. Like it's I think the difference.
10:26
Speaker 1: This was interesting to me last year as like their
10:31
Speaker 1: budget was essentially like right at that threshold, which I
10:35
Speaker 1: think was last year two thirty three to thirty four something.
10:38
Speaker 1: It was different. Yeah, yeah, so it was that there.
10:43
Speaker 1: It was a concern to them, not because it's like, oh,
10:46
Speaker 1: we can't go over. It was like, why go over
10:48
Speaker 1: because we're we're essentially like a couple hundred thousand or
10:52
Speaker 1: whatever like. So they made that. Remember the Adrian Samson move,
10:56
Speaker 1: that was a move to get under right because it
10:59
Speaker 1: was not something thing that was going to impact the team,
11:02
Speaker 1: and it was like, Okay, we can do this. We
11:05
Speaker 1: can get under by doing these things. So they thought
11:08
Speaker 1: about it this deadline. According to what I was told,
11:12
Speaker 1: it was not a consideration. It wasn't a topic of
11:14
Speaker 1: conversation as they were making moves. In fact, they added
11:18
Speaker 1: money at the deadline because I believe Lighter and Pierson
11:21
Speaker 1: are essentially a wash and yeah, exactly, so that adds
11:29
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12:47
Speaker 3: Okay, so we get towards the end of August.
12:51
Speaker 2: I mean right at this point, the playof odds are
12:53
Speaker 2: around three percent. Let's say they don't sweep to tigers.
12:59
Speaker 2: Maybe have too much fun in South Florida. They don't
13:01
Speaker 2: take care of the Marlins, you know, they they face
13:06
Speaker 2: like schemes or something like that. In Pittsburgh, and you know,
13:12
Speaker 2: the Braves kind of keep kind of run away with things.
13:15
Speaker 2: Would you expect them to do some sort of Angels
13:20
Speaker 2: style waiver dump?
13:23
Speaker 1: Yeah? So, I mean, I think we did talk about
13:27
Speaker 1: this last week, right and and and I don't like
13:30
Speaker 1: the idea of that. I don't think that's a good
13:32
Speaker 1: way to run run things in baseball. It's a fine
13:36
Speaker 1: way to run a business, I guess, but I don't
13:38
Speaker 1: like to look at these things as a business. That
13:40
Speaker 1: besides the point, my opinion doesn't matter from what I've
13:44
Speaker 1: gathered that that's not something If they make moves at
13:49
Speaker 1: this moment right now, the way they're looking at things,
13:53
Speaker 1: if they make moves that look like salary dumps, it's
13:57
Speaker 1: it's to get players that they want to get at
14:00
Speaker 1: playing time, that they want to get burn up and
14:04
Speaker 1: make sure there's a runway for them. So it would
14:07
Speaker 1: be get like it would be removing players. So maybe
14:09
Speaker 1: you'd be getting rid of salary, but it would be
14:11
Speaker 1: removing players to get playing time for younger players. They're
14:15
Speaker 1: not at a point right now where they're waving the
14:17
Speaker 1: white flag. They Drew Smiley helps this team, Hector and
14:21
Speaker 1: Aris helps this team. That's gonna upset some fans. And
14:24
Speaker 1: I just said that, but I'm just saying he does.
14:27
Speaker 1: And they want to make sure that they're not giving
14:32
Speaker 1: up on the season because they don't think that that
14:34
Speaker 1: makes sense yet. Now, like that's counter to kind of
14:39
Speaker 1: what we heard at the deadline, right, But I don't
14:41
Speaker 1: think fully it's it's counter to what we heard. The
14:43
Speaker 1: whole point that Jed was trying to make is I'm
14:46
Speaker 1: not he wasn't spending aggressively to help just the twenty
14:50
Speaker 1: twenty four team, right that what that's what his point,
14:53
Speaker 1: ye was we weren't the right. So that doesn't mean
14:57
Speaker 1: like there's a difference between spending a great to help
15:01
Speaker 1: and then waving the white flag and saying we're done. Right,
15:03
Speaker 1: And they took like this middle path where it's like,
15:06
Speaker 1: let's try and help for twenty twenty five. See where
15:08
Speaker 1: the odds go. Now, if Tom Ray gets if ownership
15:12
Speaker 1: comes to them and say I want to get underneath
15:14
Speaker 1: the luxury tax this year, I think it makes sense
15:17
Speaker 1: for us to do that. Let's reset this it's not
15:21
Speaker 1: a reset, it's just staying under to make sure. Then
15:24
Speaker 1: then that changes things. Right, But right now they have
15:26
Speaker 1: not That is not what they're working under. That is
15:29
Speaker 1: not something that they've considered. It's not something they consider
15:32
Speaker 1: it the deadline, and it's not in their thought process
15:34
Speaker 1: right now. I have to keep saying right now because
15:39
Speaker 1: the way these are also yeah, yeah, yeah, and you
15:43
Speaker 1: never know what what if if a ten game losing
15:46
Speaker 1: streak happens instead of a ten game winning streak. I
15:50
Speaker 1: you know, I can't rule it out just because who
15:53
Speaker 1: knows what Tom Rikiss decides. Who knows if they suddenly
15:57
Speaker 1: decide like, hey, let's let's try and figure this out
16:00
Speaker 1: to if they hear like, hey maybe this will up
16:03
Speaker 1: the budget for next year if we stay under this year.
16:05
Speaker 1: Whatever it is, however that but it has been that
16:08
Speaker 1: it has not been part of the calculus up to
16:11
Speaker 1: this point.
16:12
Speaker 2: There's always those Devil's advocate type arguments within any front office,
16:17
Speaker 2: and they're always soliciting opinions and trying to form a consensus.
16:21
Speaker 2: And as they're trying to keep their options open, what
16:26
Speaker 2: is your understanding of Okay, Hector NRIs and Cody Bellinger
16:32
Speaker 2: both come back next year, or Cody Bellinger and Hector
16:36
Speaker 2: Naris both depart as free agents after this season.
16:39
Speaker 3: What could the.
16:41
Speaker 2: Landscape look like if we're talking here about Naris's player
16:46
Speaker 2: option vesting or sorry, his option vesting or Cody Bellinger's
16:52
Speaker 2: opt in opt out decision, which I think I would
16:56
Speaker 2: probably assume he will opt out if things continue at
16:59
Speaker 2: this pace, but there is still a lot of time
17:02
Speaker 2: for something that happened to where maybe he does kind
17:05
Speaker 2: of take the safety and comfort of another platform here regally.
17:09
Speaker 1: Yeah, last time I wrote about this, you know, that's
17:13
Speaker 1: when you were on vacation, and my feeling was like,
17:15
Speaker 1: we're right on the fence right now, and he's had
17:17
Speaker 1: a good week. He's had a good week, and like
17:19
Speaker 1: he looks better than he did pre into good player. Yeah,
17:23
Speaker 1: I mean, I think right now, if I had to
17:26
Speaker 1: make a guess, he's opting out. But that's neither here
17:29
Speaker 1: nor there. That if if he opts in and Hector
17:33
Speaker 1: Naris that converts into player option, and he likely opts
17:36
Speaker 1: in right that that would be I think he needs
17:39
Speaker 1: fourteen more appearances whatever I could be wrong, maybe thirteen
17:45
Speaker 1: that that shifts it to like that they'll have like
17:48
Speaker 1: fifty million to spend. I shouldn't say fifty million to spend.
17:52
Speaker 1: There'll be fifty million coming off the books instead of.
17:59
Speaker 2: A larger exodus of contracts that will be falling off
18:03
Speaker 2: the book.
18:04
Speaker 1: Tucker Barnheart, Trey Mancini, Drew Kyle Hendrix. It would be
18:09
Speaker 1: about fifty This is all you know, guestimation roughly and
18:13
Speaker 1: then and it'd be around ninety million if both of
18:16
Speaker 1: them are gone, if both of them are free agents.
18:19
Speaker 2: Uh sodding, roughly ninety million dollars of salary if Ners
18:27
Speaker 2: and Bellager leave.
18:29
Speaker 1: Yes, that's that's I believe a larger group. Yes, yeah,
18:33
Speaker 1: that's that's kind of what the public numbers say. And
18:36
Speaker 1: that's kind of the Those were the guestimations that I've
18:40
Speaker 1: gathered conversations. So I guess so they're pretty big swing. Yeah, yeah,
18:50
Speaker 1: But I mean I think we like we will talk
18:54
Speaker 1: about this more in the off season, right Patrick, like
18:57
Speaker 1: what they need to do, what the plan is. We
18:59
Speaker 1: talked about Catcher, right, But that's just like fifty million
19:03
Speaker 1: maybe enough for them to do what they want to do.
19:07
Speaker 1: There's going to be trades. We've talked about that a
19:09
Speaker 1: ton they're going to make trades. I'm almost certain unless
19:13
Speaker 1: they cannot find trade partners, a big trade is going
19:17
Speaker 1: to be swung this winter. I think what fans want
19:21
Speaker 1: to hear me say right now is they're gonna be
19:23
Speaker 1: big players for Juan Soto. I think both of us
19:27
Speaker 1: have done enough, you know, digging in, whether it's talking
19:31
Speaker 1: to people around the league, talking to people within the organization.
19:35
Speaker 1: I just don't see it happening. It'd be a departure
19:38
Speaker 1: of what they've done over the year. Yeah, I mean yeah,
19:44
Speaker 1: Like it just doesn't seem like that's their mo and
19:47
Speaker 1: I don't think there is it is it? Does it
19:51
Speaker 1: make sense? I think it makes sense to go after
19:53
Speaker 1: want so I would I would say, go after Wan Soda. Yes,
19:58
Speaker 1: left the slugger that you can just figure out, figure
20:01
Speaker 1: out where to play him, d HM if you want to,
20:03
Speaker 1: you know, make a weird moves and try and trade
20:06
Speaker 1: someone whatever. Figure it out. He's won Soto and he's
20:09
Speaker 1: twenty five or twenty six, you know, I think it
20:12
Speaker 1: makes sense. It's just not the route they got. The
20:16
Speaker 1: next guy that I keep hearing about fans wise is
20:19
Speaker 1: Corbyn Burns, Like again, like, what what are we talking
20:25
Speaker 1: about here, this is the way this front office is operated.
20:29
Speaker 1: Has it ever made sense that they're going to go
20:30
Speaker 1: after a guy he's he's thirty, he's thirty years old,
20:34
Speaker 1: he's going to command one of the biggest free agent
20:37
Speaker 1: pitching contracts ever. He'll he'll be thirty in October. Okay, So, like,
20:43
Speaker 1: does that make sense to you? Like how Jed Hoyer
20:47
Speaker 1: runs things? Does that make sense? How you like when
20:49
Speaker 1: you when we talk to Carter Hawkins and the way
20:51
Speaker 1: he talks to reporters and the things he says, is
20:55
Speaker 1: that the way they want to run things, Like, I just.
21:00
Speaker 2: This is the our reporting and our institutional knowledge and
21:06
Speaker 2: not our opinion. It's totally valid to be like they
21:09
Speaker 2: should go sign Sodo, go sign Burns. These are too
21:13
Speaker 2: obvious needs. These are two stars. You have a relationship
21:16
Speaker 2: with the manager and the star pitcher and the slugger
21:21
Speaker 2: has that perfect like age window star attraction. So I
21:25
Speaker 2: think we're on the same page with that. It's just
21:27
Speaker 2: that I just don't wanted to get misinterpreted. We're like
21:31
Speaker 2: trying to like tiss people for oh they go, just
21:35
Speaker 2: that we can't get your hopes up. Fans of being like, oh, hey,
21:40
Speaker 2: Wan Sodo wink wink, Like there is really no historical
21:45
Speaker 2: evidence or like hard reporting that suggests this is going
21:49
Speaker 2: to be like them rolling up their sleeves on October first,
21:52
Speaker 2: being like, we're gonna spend every waking hour in this
21:55
Speaker 2: office trying to figure out how to sign this guy.
21:57
Speaker 1: Like they're trying.
22:00
Speaker 2: Come up with as many possible contingency plans and kind of,
22:04
Speaker 2: you know, run through all their projection systems to avoid
22:09
Speaker 2: doing that, because that's just not how they roll, and
22:12
Speaker 2: that starts at the top with ownership as well.
22:14
Speaker 1: I would add, Yeah, and you know, I don't want to,
22:18
Speaker 1: like I feel less desire to rule out Corbon Burns
22:22
Speaker 1: than Juan Soto. But that's only because I don't see
22:27
Speaker 1: Juan Soto's market just like not being insane to the
22:32
Speaker 1: point where they're like, yeah, we're not doing that, right,
22:36
Speaker 1: That's just not how we do things. We're not going
22:38
Speaker 1: to do that. Corbyn Burns picture markets are just weird sometimes,
22:43
Speaker 1: but he's at the top of it. I just don't
22:45
Speaker 1: I don't see it happening. But I could be wrong.
22:49
Speaker 1: I could maybe they shift gears, maybe they maybe they
22:53
Speaker 1: do have their site set on him. But I think
22:56
Speaker 1: the way this front office works, I just feel like
22:59
Speaker 1: that that have to see it as like this is value.
23:02
Speaker 1: This is oh he's he's not signing an eight year deal.
23:06
Speaker 1: He's not signing a seven year deal. Like what are
23:08
Speaker 1: the best pictures usually signed? It's like a seven year deal?
23:10
Speaker 1: What was Garrett Cole's Like yamamotos was eight, right, Yamamoto
23:16
Speaker 1: was eight and then and then Garrett Cole was eight
23:20
Speaker 1: as well, if I'm remembering correctly, those are the types
23:23
Speaker 1: of deals that nine years, three hundred and twenty four.
23:27
Speaker 1: That's that is Garrett Cole. So I was wrong.
23:30
Speaker 2: It's like this is I mean, I mean represents both
23:34
Speaker 2: those guys in Scott.
23:35
Speaker 1: Yeah, Cody Bellinger is a Boris guy, but like Geez,
23:38
Speaker 1: that was wrong till February. Yamamoto is a twelve year deal.
23:42
Speaker 1: Holy crap. So like these so I'm talking nine and
23:46
Speaker 1: twelve years, right, I think I think Cole was a
23:49
Speaker 1: higher av but you're talking in the thirty million range.
23:53
Speaker 1: Eight let's say minimum, it's going to be eight years.
23:57
Speaker 1: And did you just say this? But it's Boris right?
24:00
Speaker 1: Is Boris Burns? Yes? He switched.
24:06
Speaker 2: I wouldn't say recently but like towards the later stages
24:09
Speaker 2: of his argued knowing.
24:14
Speaker 1: Roll.
24:14
Speaker 2: So, I mean, look like Blake Snell's deal was not
24:18
Speaker 2: what people expected.
24:20
Speaker 1: Like things, Yeah, things happened.
24:22
Speaker 2: I'm not predicting that for Corbyn Burns, but like and
24:27
Speaker 2: Bellinger did come back when we thought it would, only
24:30
Speaker 2: in one certain circumstance. And I will give Jen Carter
24:33
Speaker 2: credit for this that they're pretty good at and they
24:38
Speaker 2: built the organization to a point where they can pivot. And
24:42
Speaker 2: that goes back to Showda in Managa. I mean, that
24:45
Speaker 2: was something that you know, they were on him. They
24:50
Speaker 2: had you know, the scouting reports, they had the kind
24:53
Speaker 2: of uh plan they wanted to implement if they signed him,
24:58
Speaker 2: and you know they did not go all out on him,
25:01
Speaker 2: but they kind of just wanted to monitor and if
25:04
Speaker 2: it had gone to a certain place, you know, there
25:06
Speaker 2: were rumors that were disputed, but that there were rumors
25:09
Speaker 2: of like one hundred million of mon deal in the cubs.
25:11
Speaker 3: We're not going to go there.
25:12
Speaker 2: But when it came back towards where they wanted, they
25:16
Speaker 2: pounced and so that you know it can still work.
25:20
Speaker 2: You know, they they signed you know, an excellent picture.
25:24
Speaker 2: They traded for a very good now rookie first baseman,
25:28
Speaker 2: Like it can work.
25:29
Speaker 1: It just has to work right, right right, I mean yeah,
25:34
Speaker 1: i'd be I'm more confident ruling out Wan Soto than
25:38
Speaker 1: i am Corbyn Burns. I just don't like it has
25:41
Speaker 1: to be It's something weird has to happen there, like
25:44
Speaker 1: right now, when I look at those numbers of the
25:46
Speaker 1: two guys I mentioned, and then think about what Boris
25:49
Speaker 1: is going to try to do, and then you look
25:51
Speaker 1: at the trends with Burns, which Scott Boris is gonna
25:54
Speaker 1: sell someone on them being irrelevant. But his strikeout rate
25:58
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty one was like thirty six percent and
26:02
Speaker 1: it's like twenty three ish percent this year, so like
26:06
Speaker 1: it's it's gone down. It's thirty five point six percent
26:08
Speaker 1: and twenty twenty one twenty three point one percent this year.
26:11
Speaker 1: Those are the types of things that a front office
26:13
Speaker 1: like the Cubs is gonna look at and be like,
26:15
Speaker 1: we're not giving a nine year deal to this thirty
26:18
Speaker 1: year old pitcher or whatever it is, right, So it
26:21
Speaker 1: would have to be, uh something where they're not finding
26:25
Speaker 1: the market that they want. And Corn Burns is like, yeah,
26:27
Speaker 1: you know what I'm gonna take one of those incentive
26:29
Speaker 1: laiden opt out deals to go be with the manager
26:33
Speaker 1: that I trust will use me properly and I'll have
26:35
Speaker 1: a monster season. And but that's not I mean, it's
26:38
Speaker 1: not like he's not coming off a bit. It is
26:41
Speaker 1: just not like, but but here's what he wins.
26:44
Speaker 2: You know, I don't know if he's gonna win the
26:45
Speaker 2: side say he wins like Game seven of the World series, Like,
26:47
Speaker 2: do you think he's thinking, oh, guy, it'll you know, like.
26:50
Speaker 1: Yeah, council like won't be uh, you know.
26:54
Speaker 2: He does not strike me as someone who's going to
26:56
Speaker 2: be overly sentimental or like I think he's you know,
27:01
Speaker 2: solving for wins out there in the right they be
27:05
Speaker 2: found on the table.
27:08
Speaker 3: For not saying you won't say we need X, Y
27:11
Speaker 3: and Z.
27:12
Speaker 2: It just thinks that he's he's very very rational about
27:14
Speaker 2: this process as well.
27:17
Speaker 1: I ultimately, and I said this last episode or whatever
27:20
Speaker 1: episode it was, I've said it before, I think they
27:22
Speaker 1: should go get a picture right. And I'm looking at
27:26
Speaker 1: this time, I'm looking at the list. There are names.
27:29
Speaker 1: There are so many names you can say, like, I mean,
27:33
Speaker 1: I just like whether it's guys coming off down years,
27:36
Speaker 1: whether it's guys coming off, Like there's gonna be a
27:38
Speaker 1: lot of one, two, three year deals given out, maybe
27:41
Speaker 1: even four year deals. I don't know if they'll go
27:43
Speaker 1: like if I'm not sure if there it's not like
27:46
Speaker 1: the priority it was when they signed Jameson Tayo, Right,
27:49
Speaker 1: it just isn't that. That's not the way they're looking
27:51
Speaker 1: at it. But there's going to be a value deal
27:53
Speaker 1: with all these names. I mean, whether it's Luis Severino,
27:56
Speaker 1: someone who's having a bounce back season, is that Alex Cobb?
28:01
Speaker 1: Is it Nathan Ivaldi? I mean, there's so many different names.
28:05
Speaker 1: They're they're good names here. I mean Robbie Ray has
28:08
Speaker 1: an opt out, Like does he have a hot stretch
28:11
Speaker 1: for San Francisco and and they and they decide to
28:15
Speaker 1: and he decides to opt out and and and try
28:18
Speaker 1: and make some money. There's there's random names here that
28:21
Speaker 1: could fill that. Essentially, you want to find someone that
28:24
Speaker 1: you're like, this guy's going to eat one hundred and
28:27
Speaker 1: sixty innings minimum next year, right, Like that's what you
28:30
Speaker 1: want to find or or hope like, hey, h Walker
28:34
Speaker 1: Bueller is going to bounce back. We like that, and
28:36
Speaker 1: he's willing to take this deal, you know something like that. Whatever.
28:40
Speaker 1: I'm just I don't have we don't have names yet
28:43
Speaker 1: because it's August whatever it is.
28:46
Speaker 3: And well, there are so many of them that they
28:48
Speaker 3: have to be.
28:50
Speaker 2: Like actively and exploring that because it's going to be
28:53
Speaker 2: in a place to sign.
28:55
Speaker 1: Yeah, and you know how they are, They're they're looking
28:58
Speaker 1: for value all always looking for value. Showed him Monaga
29:02
Speaker 1: was value for the can they find value in a picture?
29:06
Speaker 1: Was was starting pitcher their number one priority last offseason? No,
29:09
Speaker 1: but they saw value and Showedoimnaga, there will be someone
29:12
Speaker 1: that they find value in and they're smart enough to
29:14
Speaker 1: know that. Yeah, they kind of do. They absolutely have
29:17
Speaker 1: to go in the next season with with a starting pitcher.
29:20
Speaker 1: They probably don't feel that way. I I kind of do,
29:23
Speaker 1: and I think you're I think you and I kind
29:25
Speaker 1: of feel that, like they really need to sign a
29:28
Speaker 1: no doubt starter.
29:29
Speaker 2: Yeah, to me, that would be like not even a discussion.
29:33
Speaker 3: But yeah, maybe I'm a little more.
29:38
Speaker 1: Jaded.
29:39
Speaker 2: I would think the security and the certainty or relative
29:43
Speaker 2: certainty would be very valuable. Because again we saw Jordan
29:48
Speaker 2: Wicks at Wrigley Field this weekend. Obviously, a talented guy
29:53
Speaker 2: and intelligent guy. Hayden was an esky. Love his stuff,
30:00
Speaker 2: I love his attitude, his kind of energy on the mound.
30:05
Speaker 2: I think he's super interesting. And both those guys have
30:08
Speaker 2: shown a lot of flashes. I mean Ben Brown as well,
30:13
Speaker 2: someone who really is interested in the craft of pitching
30:18
Speaker 2: and you know, made himself from I mean, I think
30:21
Speaker 2: he was drafted in a round that doesn't exist anymore,
30:23
Speaker 2: like whatever, like thirty seventh round something like that.
30:25
Speaker 3: To to get to this point, you know, it takes
30:29
Speaker 3: a lot.
30:30
Speaker 2: I mean, Kate Horton, if he like goes on a run,
30:35
Speaker 2: whenever that happens, like it'll probably be pretty awesome, you know,
30:38
Speaker 2: like not, but just when all those guys are hurt,
30:41
Speaker 2: it's really hard to like, if I think, if you're
30:44
Speaker 2: the Cubs to walk into like an off season planning
30:46
Speaker 2: meeting like, oh, we got these guys, so let's ignore
30:49
Speaker 2: these like twenty established starting pitchers who are not gonna
30:52
Speaker 2: all find the deals.
30:53
Speaker 3: That they want.
30:54
Speaker 2: They're not gonna be a place is They're not all
30:56
Speaker 2: gonna be at places or cities that they want to
30:58
Speaker 2: go to. They're gonna make their family he's happy or whatever,
31:02
Speaker 2: or teams that aren't in a winning situation and like,
31:05
Speaker 2: you know, the Cubs finishing strong with a manager we're
31:09
Speaker 2: assuming I don't know, assuming the pitching coaches back, like
31:13
Speaker 2: an infrastructure that is appealing. You have guys like tie
31:16
Speaker 2: On who love to talk and really are very thoughtful
31:20
Speaker 2: and understand the marketplace and can sell the Cubs like
31:24
Speaker 2: can have good defense behind you. Like to me, if
31:27
Speaker 2: you're gonna like run the kids out next year and
31:30
Speaker 2: say like and cross your fingers, that showed us steal
31:33
Speaker 2: and tie On all do the same thing next year,
31:36
Speaker 2: Like that would.
31:36
Speaker 4: Be that would be foolish, right as the might say yeah, yeah, no,
31:42
Speaker 4: and like it would be the reverse of this year,
31:44
Speaker 4: right like thing and then and say like.
31:48
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, look at how good our starting pitching was
31:50
Speaker 1: last year. And then it doesn't repeat and we're and
31:53
Speaker 1: we're talking about the opposite issues next next year because.
31:57
Speaker 2: They didn't in the majors slash. Yeah, we can't understand why,
32:02
Speaker 2: you know. On our thirteenth depth starter from from des Moines.
32:07
Speaker 1: Yeah, then I think we're gonna have to write a
32:10
Speaker 1: fix your Projection Systems Cubs column if that happens in July. Yeah,
32:16
Speaker 1: ultimately I'm trying to think what else fans were freaking
32:19
Speaker 1: out about with the CBT and and when I say
32:22
Speaker 1: that that's not like a task task again, I'm just
32:25
Speaker 1: you know, you guys have questions, and I understand them,
32:29
Speaker 1: but you know, is this going to impact spending going forward? Right?
32:33
Speaker 1: Because if you go over it once, then you know,
32:38
Speaker 1: the more you go over it, the more it impacts
32:41
Speaker 1: the team. So my understanding and that, and like it's
32:44
Speaker 1: a little frustrating to try and find these exact rules online,
32:49
Speaker 1: but if you go over once, what it impacts most
32:51
Speaker 1: of all is qualifying offer stuff. So if they give
32:54
Speaker 1: someone a qualifying offer, the draft pick you get back
32:57
Speaker 1: is lesser. There's no one that they can give a
33:00
Speaker 1: qualifying offer too. That makes sense unless I'm missing someone, right,
33:04
Speaker 1: And then it would impact qualifying offers, like the guys
33:07
Speaker 1: that you sign that are given qualifying offers, you'd lose,
33:11
Speaker 1: you'd lose a draft pick, and you'd lose international money.
33:17
Speaker 1: From my understanding, again, like this isn't impacting their decision making,
33:21
Speaker 1: that won't hold them back from doing things. But I
33:25
Speaker 1: also have not gotten the impression that like, oh yeah,
33:27
Speaker 1: no doubt, are we going over the the luxury at tax.
33:33
Speaker 1: Next year it goes over, it goes up by four million. Obviously,
33:36
Speaker 1: they have a lot of money coming off the books,
33:38
Speaker 1: like we described, so maybe that doesn't impact how they
33:43
Speaker 1: behave in the off season. But I just think it's
33:46
Speaker 1: again like they are given a budget and here's what
33:49
Speaker 1: it is. As far as how Jed and Carter act.
33:54
Speaker 1: That isn't regarding the threshold. It is what their budget is.
33:59
Speaker 1: You know. Uh, if they're close like they did last
34:02
Speaker 1: year and there's reason too, then they can maneuver around it.
34:05
Speaker 1: But this year they didn't see the need. Next year,
34:08
Speaker 1: we'll see how it is. I I'm curious. I'm really
34:11
Speaker 1: curious to see how they what these budgets are, how
34:16
Speaker 1: close they end up next to it next year. Uh.
34:19
Speaker 1: It's it's fascinating to me. But this doesn't seem like
34:22
Speaker 1: some sort of thing where they're handcuffed or they made
34:26
Speaker 1: or they were unaware of this, or they or they
34:29
Speaker 1: were you know, given instructions to do one thing and
34:31
Speaker 1: they couldn't. They couldn't pull it off, so now they're
34:35
Speaker 1: they're in a bind. None of that seems to be
34:37
Speaker 1: the case. So if you're frustrated by it, I completely
34:41
Speaker 1: get it to one sense. In one sense because it's
34:43
Speaker 1: like they gotta go over next year because they're gonna
34:46
Speaker 1: they need to win and the and the way you
34:49
Speaker 1: win is by spending aggressively. I just think they have
34:52
Speaker 1: a different philosophy than that. And I just think they're
34:55
Speaker 1: they're doing things in a way that are going to
34:57
Speaker 1: frustrate fans. I will say this, and I know you've
35:00
Speaker 1: heard it. They're well aware next year they need to win.
35:04
Speaker 1: There's no like, there's no like, Okay, we're building to
35:06
Speaker 1: where it's something the kids are coming like this, that
35:08
Speaker 1: and the other. They need to win. And they know
35:11
Speaker 1: that this isn't something they're blind to. Now, do they
35:15
Speaker 1: behave in the manner that fans want them to with
35:17
Speaker 1: that edict of you need to win?
35:19
Speaker 3: That?
35:19
Speaker 1: I cannot. I cannot full I can't say full throated yes,
35:24
Speaker 1: they because the way fans want them to behave isn't
35:27
Speaker 1: always the way that they think is the best way
35:30
Speaker 1: to lead to wins. That's just the way it is.
35:34
Speaker 1: And I you know, sometimes that's a good thing. Other
35:39
Speaker 1: times it leads to a lot of frustration and seasons
35:41
Speaker 1: like this, Yeah.
35:43
Speaker 3: They just they just have to be right.
35:44
Speaker 2: I mean, I think the takeaways for me are there
35:48
Speaker 2: are real baseball related penalties to some of the CBT stuff,
35:52
Speaker 2: but a lot of it is just lip service or
35:55
Speaker 2: cosmetic or distractive things. Just basically that's, you know, a
36:00
Speaker 2: soft salary cap. That's kind of just where they want
36:03
Speaker 2: to have their baseball operations spend land every year, and
36:10
Speaker 2: next year it's probably gonna be around that.
36:12
Speaker 3: And when it takes.
36:14
Speaker 2: That huge unexpected jump, like it's used it because the
36:20
Speaker 2: team does that. That was after the twenty fifteen and
36:22
Speaker 2: I'll seees and you had someone like THEO kind of
36:26
Speaker 2: like making things happen behind the scenes. A lot of
36:31
Speaker 2: people were involved in that as well, but like it
36:33
Speaker 2: kind of took Theo'd be like, let's do two off
36:36
Speaker 2: seasons and one and like let's kind of accelerate this
36:39
Speaker 2: and those things can happen. I think when I'm hearing
36:43
Speaker 2: from you is that they view this as much longer
36:47
Speaker 2: continuum than any one season, but that there's kind of
36:51
Speaker 2: nowhere to hide after this season, and I think that'll
36:56
Speaker 2: you know, playoffs or busts will be a legitimate theme
37:00
Speaker 2: that will just be hammering all off season.
37:04
Speaker 1: Yeah, and and we can talk about projections. We can
37:06
Speaker 1: talk about all those things. Listen. I get that they're
37:08
Speaker 1: they're valuable to these front offices. But just comes back
37:12
Speaker 1: to what Patrick and I have been saying for years,
37:15
Speaker 1: and THEO and Jed have hammered when when we when
37:18
Speaker 1: we talk to them about these things, I say THEO
37:21
Speaker 1: because he used to say this a lot. But you
37:23
Speaker 1: just have to be right and you just got to win.
37:25
Speaker 1: Like like you can say whatever you want about what
37:28
Speaker 1: went right what didn't go right this season, right, Like
37:32
Speaker 1: the win losses are the bottom line. Craig Council understands that, right,
37:37
Speaker 1: Like if Jed Hoyer understands that they may see things
37:39
Speaker 1: in a different way that that frustrate people, right and
37:42
Speaker 1: say like, well, you know, some of this is randomness,
37:44
Speaker 1: some of this goes this way. If this thing goes
37:47
Speaker 1: this way, this is how we actually see the team.
37:49
Speaker 1: I think the underlying numbers this year, say this is
37:52
Speaker 1: what they are maybe a little bit better. Right if
37:53
Speaker 1: they're five hundred team this year, whatever, that's that's not
37:56
Speaker 1: good enough and they know that and and you know
38:00
Speaker 1: whatever else, whatever, you know, whatever numbers you want to
38:04
Speaker 1: look at, they don't matter outside of wins. And losses
38:07
Speaker 1: and that they understand that. So I guess it's time
38:10
Speaker 1: to kind of get going in that front. Patrick, I'll
38:15
Speaker 1: wrap it up here. This is north Side Territory. Thanks
38:18
Speaker 1: for all the listeners. Thanks for everyone that does all
38:21
Speaker 1: the work in the background. We appreciate you. Make sure
38:24
Speaker 1: to subscribe, rate and review, subscribe to the YouTube page.
38:27
Speaker 1: We'd appreciate that. Make sure to subscribe to The Athletic
38:30
Speaker 1: will be on top of all of this and everything
38:32
Speaker 1: else that happens over the next five weeks and change
38:36
Speaker 1: and see where this team goes, if anywhere, and then
38:40
Speaker 1: into the off season. Thanks everyone for listening. Take care,