Fed Hikes and Signals More Hikes

MPC Markets Morning Call · Sep 16, 2026 · 17m

The Fed just hiked for the first time since 2023 — 25bp to 3.75%–4.00%, unanimous — and Chair Kevin Warsh warned inflation is "too high and has been for too long." Sixteen of eighteen policymakers see at least one more hike this year, and the dot plot doesn't project 2% inflation until 2029.

Wall Street reversed hard during the presser: Dow –1.21%, S&P 500 –0.44%, Nasdaq barely flat. Oil pulled back sharply on Saudi workaround cargoes via Oman. The 10-year yield held above 5% and the curve flattened dramatically.

We break down why yield spikes historically precede Nasdaq slumps, the equity…