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NFL Week 14 Best Bets · Toadstool Sports

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Yep. Inside I want to kill myself. We are on
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: OWN seven run over the last two days after tonight
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: it was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: start off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: don't even know what to tell you above that I
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: just don't want to do this anymore. I have never
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: seen anything like this. Man with the slump continuing, two
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: straight losses, not a good day at all. Own four
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: that have not had a good season. Man with wookends
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: the slump that I'm on, and the slump continues. I've
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: reached into peak. Actually, I'm going to burn my browins
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: hat Man, I don't know what is going on with
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: the Bruins arch hape? Is that what it is? I
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: don't even know it's It's March ninth, I think who
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: even knows? Man, I don't know what data is anymore.
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: But I don't even know what data is anymore. Man,
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: back with you after the worst day that I could
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: possibly have with you, as I always am until I
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: die at least oh and two. Yesterday and yesterday it
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: did not go well for me. Own five the worst
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: month that I've ever had in my eighteen years doing this.
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: I don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: To the slumperies, the slump discontinuous, the slump continues. Somebody
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: fucking kill me, please. I don't even know what I
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: should do at this point, other than potentially end it all.
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: What's up? Everybody's towed back with you? Toadstool Sports. Maybe
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna change the name of this to toad Stronamus.
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: I don't know yet, not after today, which I'll talk
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: about how bad today was tomorrow. I mean, it wasn't
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: that bad, but it certainly was bad enough. It wasn't good.
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: Uh College Football Championship action was good for me though,
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: so two and oh there, So yay, I guess even
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: though I predicted some of the other games wrong. This
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: this is the NFL show, though, So we're gonna try
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: to continue the hot streak in the NFL. Hopefully we can.
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: I don't know if it's gonna happen. I don't love
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: this board man. The more that I broke it down,
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: I'm like, yeah, I just we'll get into it. Obviously.
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna do what I usually do. We have fewer
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: games this week, too. There are a lot of teams
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: on buy this week. This is the last week of byes,
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: so next week onward, we're not gonna have any more buys,
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: So it's gonna be a little bit of a longer show.
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: But this week we have fewer games to break down.
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: We're already one to oh this week with the Detroit
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: Lions on Thursday. So mister Thursday Night continues to come
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: through there on one am I now eleven two and
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: one I think on Thursday nights and either three and
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: one or four and one on the actual plays of
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: going out on Thursday. So that's good, mister Pinsey, what's
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: up man? Thanks for hanging out double down in Indiana.
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: I'm all right. I mean when they were down ten
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: to there was more money line. You have to get
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: more of that live betting action. I guess I don't
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: like to do that. I just let it go, like
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: I just let the main play role. But yeah, saw Charles,
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: what's going on here? Like Toads still sports better? All right?
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: I mean it is still kind of a dig at
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: Dave port noise. So all right, let's get into it.
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: This this board is this is awful, dude, Like I'm
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: gonna have two plays and I'm not sure how much
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: I love them, to be honest, trying to be selective here,
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: I thought I might wind up with one play which
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: would be even more boring. But we're gonna get straight
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: into it, man. I'm gonna skip Redskins Vikings because that
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: is gonna be what I think is the best play
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: tomorrow in that game. Yeah, I mean, you're not gonna
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: like this. This is gonna be ugly, man. But speaking
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: of ugly, I mean, look at these next two games
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: in the one PM slate Dolphins and Jets. Are you
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: kidding me with this? The Dolphins are down from three
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: point favorite to a two and a half point favorite,
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: but they have fifty percent of the tickets. It's seventy
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: two percent of the cash on them, so the money
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: looks like it's coming in on the Dolphins. But let's
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: think about this for a minute, though. The Dolphins and
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: the Jets already played once, right. They played in Miami
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: on a Monday night game earlier this year, and the
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: Dolphins at home were like three point favorites, So how
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: could they possibly be a three point favorite on the
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: road this time? Like, the line seems totally out of whack.
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: It doesn't make any sense, Like, and there weren't any
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: injuries in that game. I don't think right were there?
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: I'm trying to remember, And I know the Jets actually
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: outplayed them in the game. And the Jets basically lost
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: this game because the turnovers, Like I remember enough of
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: this game. Of course it was justin fields, but there's
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: not gonna be that much of a drop off from
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: fields to Tyrod Taylor. I mean, Tyrod Taylor has been
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: playing the last couple of weeks. Now Tua played in
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: this game, So like, what's the deal here? I know
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: ESPN doesn't show the lines anymore, at least for now.
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: Hopefully they bring that back. But I think I have
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: a good memory my autism here. I'm pretty sure that
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: the Dolphins were two and a half three at home here,
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: now they're three on the road. Like, the line just
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: doesn't make any sense. So to me, it seems like
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: the line value is on the Jets, but the money
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: is coming in on the Dolphins. I mean, I don't
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: think the Dolphins are worthy of laying points on the
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: road basically against anybody though, so again, line value wise,
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: I would be looking to take the Jets here, but Situationally,
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: I don't really love it. I mean, Miami did come
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: off a pretty bad game really against the Saints last week.
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: It was actually a little bit better than the final
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: score looked, I guess because the Saints back door that cover.
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: We love the back door action there. This game. It
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: was close statistically though, so I mean not really a
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: misleading final at least I got my lean correct in
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: that game. But yeah, Miami's coming off an ugly game
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: against New Orleans here now they're going to play the Jets.
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: I mean it looks like maybe a spot where they'll
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: play better. Whereas the Jets actually pulled off a nice
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: small home upset win, which I was also correct about
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: that game. Got a little bit lucky maybe on that one.
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: The Jets pulled that win out of their ass at
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: the end of the game. Jets definitely got outgained in
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: this game. So I think that's probably what the betters
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: are seeing and why the money is on Miami, I
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: guess in the spot where Yeah, I mean the Jets
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: definitely got destroyed statistically in this game, they somehow won
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: the game anyway, So based on last week's results, Miami
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: being the right way to look make sense in this game.
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: But I don't think the line makes sense. And we're
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: also talking about Miami going up into cold temperatures. Remember,
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: so this is the time of year where you got
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: to look at the weather. It's not gonna be that bad.
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: I guess at forty three, so it's not gonna be freezing,
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: So that's a little bit better. But Miami and Tua,
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: they notoriously, they do not do well in colder weather.
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: Like I think Tua is like owned seven in freezing
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: temperatures or something like that, although lucky for him, it's
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: not gonna be freezing here. But I just don't know
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: what to do with this game, dude, Like the money
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: looks like it's coming in on the Dolphins, and Final
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: Market Read is kind of saying the Dolphins, Well, we'll
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: see what happens tomorrow, because I'll talk about the final
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: market read against tomorrow morning. I mean, I kind of
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: lean towards taking the Jets at plus three, but I
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: don't love it at all, man, So for now that'll
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: be my lean, I guess, but that one is one
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: of my weakest opinions. I might change it. Yeah, yeah,
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: the back door action pulling it out of your ass
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: Titans Browns. This this might be the worst game of
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: all time, dude, Like, you've got to be kidding me
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: with this matchup here, look at the total in this game,
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: thirty four. It looks like money's coming in on the
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: over here. I think it was as low as thirty
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: three and a half. But to me, I actually think
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: that total is justified. I mean, where are the points
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: gonna come from? This game? It's cam Ward against shar Sanders, Like,
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: are you like you have to be kidding me. These
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: offenses are both awful, unbelievably bad. And yes, obviously the
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: Browns have the better defense and that's why they're favored here,
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: other than the fact that they're at home. But to
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: the Browns, really, like with the the Browns with should
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: Earl Sanders, should they be laying three and a half
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: against anybody with a total of thirty four? I kind
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: of don't think so, Like I would lean towards taking
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: the points with the Titans here eighty three percent of
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: the tickets, only sixty seven percent of the catch Like,
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: why are the Browns public? Like you have to be
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: kidding me. The I mean, it's because nobody wants the Titans.
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: But seeing the Browns as a public favorite is just
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: unbelievably absurd to me. Man, Like, I don't think the
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: Browns should be favored by more than a field goal
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: really against anybody, like maybe not even the Raiders, to
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: be honest, I don't know, but I would take the
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: points in this one. Like this is a game where
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: like if either team gets to seventeen, they might win
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: the game. So it's like, I mean, this game, it's
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: gonna be real ugly, Like it shouldn't even be televised.
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: It's gonna be real bad. But yeah, I would lean
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: towards taking the points in that one. Steelers Ravens kind
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: of an interesting when the Ravens are now from six
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: and a half point favorite to a five and a
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: half point favorite at home. Here, there is kind of
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: a lot going on in this game. Both teams are
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: coming off looking pretty bad. Last week, Steelers basically didn't
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: even score against the Buffalo Bills. The Steelers got wrecked
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: by the Bills last week. I can bring up the
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: schedule like I usually do here. So I predicted that game, right,
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: I mean, that was the return from injury for Aaron
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: Rodgers though, So I always talk about how the reverse
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: injured player spot comes in, and sometimes the quarterback won't
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: do well, like Rodgers definitely did not do well in
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: that game. Steelers are all out of sorts and sometimes
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: that happens, you know, when the team has their star
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: player coming back, they just don't play well in that
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: first game back. Usually the next game back they do
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: play better. So the second game off the injured player,
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: the reverse injured player there, I do expect a better
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: performance out of the Steelers. I mean, this game was ridiculous,
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: Like the crowd was chanting like fire Tomlin. The crowd
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: is getting very, very restless in Pittsburgh here, even though
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: there's six and six. Usually Pittsburgh and Baltimore are wars.
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: Usually it's close, but the gap is widening over the
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: last couple of years and where Baltimore is the better
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: team at Baltimore was able to win by margin once
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: last year, but it was in the playoffs. And now
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: you do know that this is the first time they're
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: playing this year, and it is playoff revenge for Pittsburgh
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: here because they don't play again until the final week
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: of the season. Those are their two matchups here this year,
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: so that is a little bit of a factor. You know,
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh remembers they got eliminated from the playoffs in this
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: exact stadium last year at Baltimore. So maybe a little
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: bit of extra motivation from the Pittsburgh side here. But
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: for the Baltimore side, they do have extra rest and
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: they're coming off a terrible performance as well against Cincinnati,
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: and that was a loss for us on the show.
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: The only loss last week with the play is Lamar Jackson.
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: I'm worried, man. Like normally I would say, yeah, Baltimore's
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: gonna bounce back from that because they have extra time off.
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: And that was a horrendous loss, Like that was the
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: worst loss than Pittsburgh. Like Pittsburgh lost as an underdog
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: at home, Okay, Baltimore loss is a huge favorite at home.
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: That is like more unacceptable, let's say, And they have
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: extra time off, so you gotta think Baltimore's work and
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: I'm fixing some things. The issue that I might have
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: with it is is Lamar Jackson actually healthy. I don't know,
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: because he was. He was horrible in this game. Dude,
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: I'm wondering if he's injured. I don't know. I mean,
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: I guess if he was really that injured, maybe they
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: wouldn't play him. But this game also it was not
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: what it looked like on the scoreboard though. I mean,
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: Baltimore had five turnovers, minus four and turnovers. You're not
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: gonna win the game and you're minus four and turnovers,
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: So I think there was more room to progress back
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: to some sort of mean here for Baltimore. So I've
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: been going back and forth on this game all week. Man,
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: My gut instinct was laid the points with Baltimore in
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: this game, with the extra time off, and based on
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: the fact that it's just way uglier what they did
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: last week because it was against a worst team, even
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: though it was with Joe burrow back. That was the
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: reverse injured player spot with borrow Man, and it was
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: still just awful for the Ravens there. But I think
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: with extra time off, that game being more embarrassing than
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: losing to Buffalo. I don't know, even though the public
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: seems to be on the Ravens side. We'll see what
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: the market starts looking like tomorrow, but I'm kind of
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: leaning towards saying lay it with the Ravens in that
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: one for now. But it does concern me Seahawks Falcons.
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: I don't think I'm gonna change my opinion on this one.
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: I would take the points with Atlanta in this game.
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: Eighty two percent of the tickets, only seventy nine percent
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: of the cash on the Seahawks. It is the number
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: is down from seven and a half to six and
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: a half here. Obviously, if you like the Falcons, you
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: want to try to get at least seven on this,
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: and I think you probably can. Like maybe I would
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: even wait because I mean, if you're just gonna lose
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: the six and a half for a six, that doesn't
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: really matter. So like I would wait to see if
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: you can get seven to seven and a half on
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: this if you want Atlanta. And I do agree with
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: Atlanta on this one. Seattle, I don't think they're quite
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: as good as the record looks at this point. And
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: people are gonna just look at what they did last week.
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: Oh they beat Minnesota twenty six to nothing. Yeah, they did,
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: but that was because Max Brosmer. I mean, I thought
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: that he couldn't possibly be worse than JJ McCarthy and Maham.
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: Was I wrong. Max Brosner was horrible in that game,
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: and that was pretty much what happened in that game,
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: twenty six to nothing shut out. So it looks like
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: a good win for Seattle, but Sam Darnell was terrible
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: in the game. Darnald's actually been not very good over
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: the last three weeks man or even four weeks. I
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: would say he's kind of starting to regress, which I
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: kind of expected that a little bit. And Atlanta is
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: a team that can blitz. They do blitz a lot
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: on deepfense, and that is what Donald struggles with. So
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: maybe there's more game footage on him now, more footage
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: on him, more film on him. These teams starting to
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: figure out how you can counter him, because last year
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: it was really only Detroit and the Rams that were
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: able to do it. But now this season we've seen
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: the Rams in Minnesota do it, and maybe some more
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: teams are gonna do it. But Seattle's also having a
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: lot of travel here, dude. This is gonna be their
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: third road game in four weeks. It's gonna be their
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: fourth road game in the last six weeks, and that
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: can kind of take it sold to having to go
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: back to the East Coast again after being out on
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: the Pacific time zone. They were in Tennessee the week
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: prior to that, they were in the Pacific Times. On
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: the week before that at the Rams. Two weeks before that,
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: they were on the East Coast against Washington. So a
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: lot of things. I just don't like the spot here
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: for Seattle Man, And they do have Indianapolis next and
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: then a quick turnaround to the Rams after that, and
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: both of those games I think are a bit bigger
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: than this one. Atlanta's been struggling. I don't think people
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: really take Atlanta with Kirk Cousins seriously, especially losing to
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: the Jets last week. But as I just showed you,
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: Atlanta was better in that game than it looked man.
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: So Kirk Cousins, you could say he's getting a little
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: bit better again. I mean, he was awful the first
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: game that he played this year, which was the one
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: against Miami earlier this year. But he's been a little
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: bit better the last couple of games, which is good
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: because I kind of like Cousins. I kind of want
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: him to have a resurgence, and Atlanta's gonna need that
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: if they're gonna try to make a push here, and
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: they need these games more because their path to the
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: playoffs is to win the division. But there is a
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: concern about that because yeah, they gotta win the division.
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: But look who they play next. Man, they played Tampa Bay,
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: and it's revenge for Week one as well, where I
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: think Atlanta should have won that game in Week one.
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: I mean they had the game won pretty much and
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: yum Waiku pretty much fucked them in that game. And
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: he still looks like he's not good. If you saw
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: him completely stop on a field goal attempting to blame
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: the holder in that game against the Patriots, when he
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: just stopped and didn't even attempt the field goal. If
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: you saw that, it's almost like he's a Ray Finkel. Now,
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: for those who get that ref it's The Ace Venture,
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: a great movie by the way, you know, blaming Dan
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: Marino for the hold laces out. Dan uh, the laces
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: were out, but yung Waiku was saying that the ball
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: was slipping out of the holder's grasp. I don't know, man,
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: But Atlanta does have Tampa up on Thursday, though, So
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: I do worry about a little bit of a look
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: ahead here because that Tampa game is gonna be huge.
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: It's gonna have some divisional implications. So I do worry
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: about the look I had a little bit for Atlanta here,
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: so I would take Atlanta plus the points, but it's
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: not on my card. Yeah, alrighty then yep, Finkel is einhorn. Man,
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: I can't do a very good Ace or Jim Carrey.
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: All right, Colts and Jags. I don't know what to
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: do with this game either. Man. At first, I was
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: thinking the Jags were gonna kind of be a public
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: side here because the public doesn't want the Colts after
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: what they've done the last couple of weeks. But Jag
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: looking like they have fifty four percent of tickets fifty
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: seven percent of the cash on them, and the Colts
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: have dropped from a two and a half point favorite
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: to a one point favorite here. And this is a
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: pretty big game, man, because the winner of this game
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: will be in sole possession of the lead in that division.
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: And it's starting to look like the crazily the AFC
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: South is gonna get multiple teams into the playoffs, which
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: I really didn't think. So. My prediction preseason was Jacksonville
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: to win the division, and they might if they win
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: this game, man, And I think they might. When I
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: start thinking about this game more, I kind of lean
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: towards Jacksonville, I mean Indianapolis. Yeah, they're coming up a
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: couple of straight losses, but look at those games, man,
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: I mean they played two physical teams, man, Kansas City
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: and Houston, losing both games barely by three in overtime
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: in Arrowhead, and then last week against Houston, tough divisional battle.
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: Those two teams beat you up physically, man, So I
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: kind of worry about it for Indianapolis. Here, man, here's
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: a little thing for you with Indianapolis playing at Jacksonville.
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: I don't have enough people in the chat to really
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: do this, because I was gonna ask, when do you
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: think the last time Indy one in Jacksonville was? And
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: granted they've played a couple of times. I think in London,
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: where Jacksonville has their home game against indian London, that's
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: happened a couple of times. But even so, the last
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: time the Colts won in this stadium in Jacksonville was
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: eleven years ago, twenty fourteen. Indianapolis has not won in
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: Jacksonville since twenty fourteen, So that is not really a
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: trend that I'm willing to jump in front of either
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: here man, Yeah, your Charles, Yeah, you're close. Yeah, twenty fourteen,
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure is the correct answer. It's ridiculous. It's
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: one of the more ridiculous streaks that's out there. I
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: don't want to don't. I wouldn't solely base a handicap
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: off of that. But Jacksonville is also coming off easy
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: your games, though, Man, Jacksonville had an easy win over
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: Tennessee last week. They did have to go two Arizona
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: the week before then, and that wasn't as easy, and
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: I'm pissed that we lost on Arizona by a half
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: point in that one. But Jacksonville last week they had
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: an easy game against Tennessee and now the flight back
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: home for this game is not very difficult for them,
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: So that's not too bad. O. The way it sets
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: up for Jacksonville here slightly into Jacksonville for me here,
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: And I still don't like that. India as Daniel Jones
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: playing with a broken leg. I mean, it's just ridiculous, man, Yeah,
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: you were close, for sure. Yeah, Daniel Jones playing with
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: a broken fibula warris me as well. Man. We get
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: to the four pm say, oh no, wait, there's another
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: one pm game where I don't know, it looks like
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: something must have gotten flex here because we have stuff
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: all over the place here. I'll do the one PM
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: games still, Saints at Buccaneers. Buccaneers are out from a
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: seven and a half to a nine point favorite. They're
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: public with ninety percent of the tickets, but it looks
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: like the actual money is also winning the public on
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: that side. We see two games that look like that
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: here this week with the Buccaneers and the Rams. Buccaneers
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: ninety percent of the cash on them. I mean, I
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: don't really have a great reason to fade Tampa in
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: this game. Tampa. I mean they need to hold serve
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: in their division because they're still barely hanging onto this
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: division over Carolina right now, although they do play Carolina
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: once twice. Still. But the Buccaneers, I mean, they were
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: better than they looked last week. They had a bounce
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: back with that win. Baker Mayfield played. He seems to
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: be healthy if you look at what happened in this game. Yeah,
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: the Buccaneers barely won this game, but they were winning
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: this game by a lot more in this game, although
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: they got out gained, so that does worry me. Arizona
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: actually did kind of dominate them statistically, with over one
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: hundred more yards twenty two to thirteen. A Verst Downs.
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: Buccaneers actually did win the time of possession battle. Arizona
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: had two turnovers, which kind of did the minute seems
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: like that's happening to Arizona a lot. Man, They're out
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: gaining all these teams and just falling short with turnovers.
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: But I think what you can say is that was
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: a lackluster game for Tampa Bay and maybe there was
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: something where, you know, Baker Mayfield was out pretty early
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: in the previous game, so maybe he had to kind
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: of get his bearings again. To me, it kind of
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: looks like a bounce back spot for Tampa the second
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: game back home. Like, I don't think I would want
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: to take the Saints here, man, although the Saints have
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: played close in a good amount of their games this year,
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: Like they are a team that does show up and
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: play pretty competitively, and I think they will for this
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: game because it is a road revenge, you know, second
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: divisional matchup too. So I do a lot of times
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: say that you do want to look that way where
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: New Orleans lost to Tampa Bay twenty three to three
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: in New Orleans earlier this year and a lot of times.
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: I do say that is an angle and that second
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: divisional matchup happens if the road team won the first game,
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: and now in the second game, that team that lost
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: that first game at home is a divisional road underdog,
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: they are a pretty decent way to look in that game.
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: So I struggle with this game too, man. I mean,
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I mean, I'm kind of flipping myself
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: around here, like I want to see what the market
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: read looks like tomorrow leading up to the game before
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: I kind of actually give out a lien on this one,
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: because initially I was kind of thinking a Tampa Bay
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: is probably gonna be the lean in this one. But
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: I'm not so sure, man. I mean, maybe feisty Saints
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: team coming in, because they do. When you're a team
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: like the Saints and you don't have anything left to
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: play for in the season, one of the games you
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: will get up for is a game like this where
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: we have the potential to maybe spoil a divisional rival season.
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: So maybe you'll get a good effort out of New
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: Orleans here. So I don't know, maybe I'll flip it
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: around and say, maybe you do want to take the
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: points in that one, and then the other one PM
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: game that looks like it got flexed out of a
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: four PM game is Bengals Bills. But it seems like
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: it should be one of those later games where they
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: put some of those later games as the better games,
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: because this is the This is some primetime stuff here now,
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: man with Joe Burrow against Josh Allen, even though even
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: though the Bengals are barely holding on to very very
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: slim hopes of doing anything. Of course, if the Bengals
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: are gonna get into the playoffs, they're gonna have to
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: win their division. I mean, they're not gonna get a
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: wild card. I do lean to the Bills in this game.
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: The Bills are a six point favorite, fifty three percent
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: of the cash on them, fifty two percent of the
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: tickets coming in on the Bengals. Of course, people are
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: gonna comment on how it seems like Joe Burrow always
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: gives the Bills fits though, like Joe Burrow seems to
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: go into Buffalo and win, like every time he's there
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: as an underdog of around this magnitude. That is true,
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: he does do well in Buffalo. I don't disagree with that.
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: And now this is his second game back. And I
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: do realize Cincinnati does have extra time off here because
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: they played on Thursday on Thanksgiving night, but that was
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: a huge divisional primetime win over the Ravens. Man And again,
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: it was really pretty misleading, right because I showed you that.
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: I mean, Baltimore had five turnovers in the game, so
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: it wasn't really that much that Cincinnati did. It was
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: more that Baltimore just threw the game away, which I'm
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: still pissed about. So that game wasn't really what it
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: looked like on the scoreboard. Now Cincinnati is facing a
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: third road game in four weeks, which is pretty difficult.
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: And by the way, I did say that their path
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: to make the playoffs is to win their division. Well
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: guess who they play next week? Yeah, they play the
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: Ravens again next week. So they're in a dreaded Ravens
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: sandwich here, which I don't know what the raven sandwich is,
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: but the Baltimore sandwich. But it's a rare scenario here.
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: And I'm not saying Cincinnati is going to overlook Buffalo.
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: I mean they shouldn't, but the Ravens games mean more, man,
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: and that was just a crazy upset win, so I
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: think it still really could be a little bit of
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: a letdown spot for Buffalo. I mean, I don't know
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: if Buffalo could still I think Buffalo could technically still
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: win their division, but if they're gonna do that, they
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: do need to beat New England on the road, and
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: that's next week. So Buffalo, I guess you could argue
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: does have a look ahead to next week because that
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: is a big game against New England. So I struggle
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: with this game. I think both teams are in bad spots.
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: I mean, I told you, man, I don't like this
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: board here, like I'm gonna lean to Buffalo, and it
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: looks like the market is agreeing with that, just because
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: I don't think the Bengals are as good as what
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: they looked like last week, even though I know second
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: game with your star star quarterback back, you are generally
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: gonna play better. But I don't know, man, I mean
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: to me, it seems like it's a like it seems
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: like it's a Buffalo spot. To man, Buffalo had a
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: much easier game last week, even though even though yeah, Buffalo,
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: I mean, it was like a decent win for them
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: on the road whatever, like they looked alright, But like
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: I mean, that game was over pretty pretty early on.
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: I would say so Buffalo. I mean, they really didn't
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: have to do much. Buffalo was literally just running like
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: counterweight with James Cook over and over again, and for
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: some reason the Steelers couldn't stop it. Like Mike Tomlin,
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: he doesn't make it adjustments, dude, he did not make
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: adjustments on that rushing play. The Buffalo is running all
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: game and with success all game last week, and which,
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: by the way, Baltimore might realize that this week and
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: just do the same thing with Derreck Henry, because I mean,
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: they obviously have the ability to. Although Baltimore seems to
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: be stupid with how they use their rushing attack. They
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: don't use it effectively, so I don't know. But for
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: Buffalo it was an easy game because they just ran
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: the football a lot. So I don't know. I don't
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: know what else to say about it. I don't think
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: people are gonna put that much wade into Buffalo beating
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh like that. Public seems to be just off the
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh train. They don't like Rogers and whatever, So I
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: don't know. Tough game for me to read slightly into
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: buffalo for now, but lobster like top lobster. Oh, that's
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: like a buffalo sandwich. I don't know that a lobster well,
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: a lobster sandwich, wouldn't that just be a lobster roll.
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: That's what we have up here in New England. I
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: don't know if I don't think you really can classify
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: that as a sandwich though. But we do the lobster role.
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: It's in like a hot dog role basically, or a
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: brio shroll, you know what I'm talking about. The New
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: England styles to do the cold one with the Mayo.
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: Don't want to overdo the Mayo though. All right, let's
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: go to the four PM games here. Oh yeah, Raven
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: and lobster. Yeah that's uh yeah interesting. It is a
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: Nephelin death squad man. All right, four pm Slate Bears Packers.
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: This is a big game, man, But the Packers are
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: a six and a half point favorite, and you know,
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: the public they love these, you know, shiny toys. The
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: public does not love green Bay because their offense is
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: kind of crappy, to be honest, but green Bay is
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: really good defensively in Chicago, I honestly don't think They're
• 27:50
  Speaker 1: good on either side of the ball. I keep saying it.
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: I know I keep being wrong about Chicago, predicting that
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: Chicago's gonna lose these games, But the Wheels are gonna
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: them off to the Chicago team, they were complete frauds.
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: They might be the most fraudulent team in NFL history, Dude,
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: Like theyk just now, just because of their last win.
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: They barely have a positive point differential just because they
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: won last week, They're like plus six now in point
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: differential on the entire season, and they're still negative yards
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: for play differential. This is gonna be their third road
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: game in four weeks, and they're coming off like basically
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: their legitimizer game. And everybody saw it on Black Friday.
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: They went into Philadelphia and beat the Super Bowl champs. Man,
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: I know Chicago wants to go into green Bay and
• 28:37
  Speaker 1: do it too. But green Bay, I mean, they were
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: a half game behind Chicago because they had that stupid
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: tie against Dallas earlier. So I think green Bay is
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: gonna have something to prove here. Man, green Bay is
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: the better team. It's a more difficult spot for Chicago
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: because they're gonna have to put in this effort multiple
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: games in a row like this. And for Philadelphia, I
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: mean Philadelphia, they really have been kind of unimpressive this year,
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: not that Super Bowl win, Like they don't have the
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: same defense as last year. Philly has not really been
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: great offensively this year. I mean they've been winning a
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: lot of games by close margins. Green Bay, I mean,
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: green Bay might be better than Philadelphia, man, and green
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: Bay's laying basically the same, maybe even a little bit
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: less here, Like the public's gonna look at this and say,
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: how is Chicago as the slightly better team and they
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: haven't lost since weeks and weeks ago? How are they
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: getting like almost a touchdown here? Like it looks so
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: easy to take the Bears here, But that is not
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: what I would do. I mean, I think there is
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: even let down potential. Hero though. Yeah, you could argue
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: the same thing for green Bay, because people did also
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: see green Bay on Thursday beat Detroit on Thanksgiving. That
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: was a big win, no doubt about it. Green Bay
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: got the seasons sweep of Detroit. But they do have
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: an extra day off at least because that was in
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: the afternoon on Thursday, where Chicago played later afternoon on Friday.
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: One extra day of rest for Green Bay here. But
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: both teams are gonna show up, and if that's the case,
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: the better team is what makes sense here. I would
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: lay it with the Packers, try to if you want
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: to do it, I would try to get it at
• 30:10
  Speaker 1: below seven. I have fifty three percent of the tickets
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: on the Bears, sixty two percent of the cash on
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: the Packers. I agree again, the Bears can't continue doing this. Man.
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: They're like a slightly below average offense and they're like
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: a bottom ten defense, So they just can't continue to
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: do this, man. Packers should be able to score against
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: that defense, all right. Also in the four PM slate,
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: I'm not going in total chronological order here because some
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: of these this one game is a twenty minutes earlier
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: than these other two. But Broncos at Raiders, the Broncos
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: laying eight points on the road here, eighty nine percent
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: of the tickets and cash on the Broncos. I know
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: the Broncos didn't look good. I'm on a Sunday night,
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: and that was a win for us with Washington plus
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: the points. But the Broncos are just publican away because
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: the public is gonna want nothing to do with the Raiders. Man,
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: But the Raiders did go into Mile High and they
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: put up a fight. Man, the Broncos only beat them
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: ten to seven back on that Thursday Night game a
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: few weeks ago. So the Raiders, I think one of
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: the situations where a dead team like the Raiders, one
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: of the situations where they will show up is to
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: play a divisional game like this. So I do think
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: you will get a decent effort out of the Raiders
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: in this one game here like you did the last time,
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: although obviously Denver might remember that game and fix some
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: things because they weren't good in that game. But then
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: on the other hand, I mean, they're on a short week,
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: they are having to travel cross country here like they
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: were in Denver. Well, they're in Denver before the bye actually,
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: so they did have a bye in between the two.
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: But they were out on the East Coast last week
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: late Sunday, and now they have to go back to
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: the they have to go all the way to the
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: Pacific time zone. They do have Green Bay Necks, which
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: maybe they'll be looking ahead to that a little bit
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: because that is a bigger game. So I don't know, man,
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: And the other thing about Denvers they just don't win
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: by margin like this eight point spread. They've won by
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: that margin, uh what twice all season. It was in
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: Week one at home against Tennessee where they won by
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: exactly eight, and then against Jake Browning the Cincinnati Bengals
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: they won on a Monday night game twenty eight to three.
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: Since then, all the rest of their wins have been
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: by four or fewer points every single time. Oh no, sorry,
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: they beat Dallas, my mistake. They crushed Dallas in the
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: middle of there. But all the rest of their wins
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: besides those have been by four. If you were so Denver.
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: I mean again, they're just not really built to win
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: by margin. Like I said last week, I wouldn't want
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: to lay points like this on the road. They're mostly
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: a defensive team. Vegas, I would think should get up
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: for this. I mean, everybody's just making fun of them.
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: They had another ugly loss last week in LA. They're
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: just staying in the Pacific time zone here. They've been.
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: This is gonna be the fourth straight week I think
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: that they're in the Pacific time zone. Yeah, so the
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: travel spot is not bad at all for Vegas. Here,
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: I would probably lean towards taking the points with Vegas.
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: I don't love it though. All right, what games so
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: I have left here? Rams Cardinals. This is another one
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: where my instinct, my first thought on this game was
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: to lay the points with the Rams. Public is all
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: over the Rams because the public doesn't like the Cardinals.
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: Ninety percent of tickets ninety five percent of the cash
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: on the Rams r up from nine and a half
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: to a ten point favorite. Here. Now I have you know,
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: I have some problems figuring this game out too, man.
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: The Rams, to me, I think they should be in
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: a bounced back spot because they went out to the
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: East Coast last week and they had an ugly loss
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: to Carolina. They didn't play well. It was a bad
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: game for them. Looking at the stats, I mean it
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: was a little bit misleading. Though the Rams are minus
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: three in turnovers. Man, they won the yardage battle in
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: the game, so it was kind of a misleading result.
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: Like the Rams, when you're minus three internovers, you shouldn't
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: only lose by three. So did play better than what
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: it looked like in that game. So to me, it
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: does seem like a bounce back spot, even though they
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: are having to travel back from the East Coast to
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: whatever time zone Arizona is in Mountain time zone or whatever.
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: And yes, they do have Detroit up next and then
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: Seattle on a Thursday, so you could argue they might
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: be looking ahead to those games. I don't know that
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: they're gonna overlook a divisional game, man, even though it
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: is Arizona, and Arizona is way behind everybody else. For Arizona,
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: I mean, they are also traveling back from the East
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: time zone, Eastern time zon though, because they were just
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: in Tampa Bay and they played pretty well. Although granted
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: Arizona was actually better than they looked. Both of these
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: teams were better than the final score indicated. Last week.
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: Arizona also turned the ball over. As I showed you,
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: they outgained Tampa. But that was a pretty big performance
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: from Arizona. Man against Tampa out on the East coast,
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: they were an underdog. They played pretty well. Now they're
• 34:53
  Speaker 1: coming back from that, coming back home. I mean, based
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: on just what these teams did last week, I kindly
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: in towards the Rams, but I don't think I want
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: to lay like ten on the road in a divisional
• 35:04
  Speaker 1: game with the Rams. Man and Arizona, what you can
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: say about them is they've been pretty feisty, let's say,
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: I mean the almost all their losses have come by
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: single digits. Other losses are by one at the forty
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: nine Ers, three at home against Seattle, one at home
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: against Tennessee, four on the road in Indianapolis, four at
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: home against Green Bay. Then they did get blown out
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: at Seattle, but the yardage battle was actually close in
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: that game. And then they got blown out by San Francisco,
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: but they actually outgained San Francisco significantly in that game.
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: Then their last two losses were by three and overtime
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: against Jacksonville at home and then three on the road
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: at Tampa Bay. So they played a lot of close games.
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: So Arizona is probably at least better than their record looks.
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: So again, yeah, I struggle with it, but I don't know,
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: maybe overall slight lean towards taking the points there, but
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: I don't love it at all. And I think that
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: does this, that that'll bring us to the best bets
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: except for well, the Monday night game, I don't have
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: a best bet on. I guess we could just briefly
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: talk about Monday Night now Eagles and Chargers. Eagles are
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: off from a two point favorite or a two and
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: a half point favorite. And this line seems a little
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: bit weird to me, man. I think it's because Justin
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: Herbert is questionable for the Chargers, so you have to
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: try to gauge, like what are they gonna do with him?
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: Like is Herbert actually playing or is he not playing?
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: Like this line almost seems to indicate that maybe he's
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: not playing, because would the Eagles really be this much
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: of a road favorite if Herbert was playing. I don't know, man,
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: but if he winds up playing, you're gonna see this
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: line come back towards the Chargers. Man, the Eagles are
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: public sixty eight percent of tickets, only fifty four percent
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: of the cash. I wouldn't really want to lay a
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: price with the Eagles on the road in a primetime
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: game where the Eagles have to go to the West Coast,
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: and you know I talk about this, these East coast
• 36:57
  Speaker 1: teams going to the West Coast. It's bad for their
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: biological clock in a late night game like this because
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: it's just late for them. So it's not great. Yeah,
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: short show. I like these better, man, it's been too
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: long anyway, so I don't I like fading these teams
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: when they go out to the West Coast for these
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: late night games. So the Philly did do it once
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: last year against the Rams, and they beat them anyway,
• 37:19
  Speaker 1: pretty handling. I think I might have had a loss
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: on that game too, So Philly has shown the ability
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: to do that though, and Philly is coming off a
• 37:27
  Speaker 1: couple of pretty ugly losses due I mean, they blew
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: a twenty one nothing lead against Dallas and then last
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: week they lost to the Bears, which the Eagles. Everybody
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: saw that on Black Friday, and the Eagles were a
• 37:38
  Speaker 1: favorite there. So in some ways it looks like a
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: bounce back for the Eagles, whereas the Chargers, I mean
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: they just had a whatever win last week against Vegas.
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: I mean it was good as a bounce back win.
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: They're coming out of a bye, so the Chargers will
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: be more rested here and they're staying at home, so
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: the rest and travel spot definitely does benefit the Chargers here.
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: We gotta know if Herbert's play or not, though, I
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: mean I struggle with this game a lot. Yeah, I
• 38:05
  Speaker 1: don't even know what I would do with it. And
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: because the Eagles playing on Friday, they do have extra
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: time off though, as well extra day day or and
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: a half off. So I don't know, man, I don't
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: know what I want to do with this game at
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: the moment. I mean, the market is saying to take
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: the points of the Chargers. Now, if Justin Herbert is out,
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: then you get an injured player spot coming into play
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: with the Chargers. I don't even know who their backup
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: quarterback is right now, but you'll probably get more points,
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: Like it might go up above a field goal if
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: it's announced that Herbert is not playing, and then probably
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: the lean has to be with the Chargers if that's
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: the case. If he is playing, it gets a little
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: bit more iffy, man, according to the market. I mean,
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: I guess still you'd want to lean that way, but
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: I don't really love it. Man. Let's go to the
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: best bets here. You already know what one of them is.
• 38:56
  Speaker 1: One of them. I mean, this is as ugly as
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: it gets, but you know that this is what I do.
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: We're gonna take the Minnesota Vikings plus the one and
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: a half here getting them is a little home underdog here.
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: The public, they're all they're all in Washington all of
• 39:09
  Speaker 1: a sudden, because the Vikings looked so bad last week.
• 39:13
  Speaker 1: By the way, you can see the look ahead here
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: prior to last week's games, the Vikings are gonna be
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: a two and a half point favorite in this game,
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: and now they're one and a half point underdog, basically
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: just because of last week. Well, maybe that's not entirely
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: the case. I'll talk about it in a minute, because
• 39:28
  Speaker 1: some of it does have to do with a quarterback situation,
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: So I'll mention that in a minute. But it's not
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: based entirely off of last week's results. But sixty two
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets, fifty four percent of the cash on Washington,
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: so they're public public. They're more so fading the Vikings
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: than they are playing the Washington side the Redskins. Although
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: let's look at the Redskins here for a minute. Man.
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: We got the win on them last week, right, so
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: they covered. They took Denver into overtime. Of course, whenever
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: you played Denver, it's a tough, physical game, man, and
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: teams that come off of playing Denver they don't typically
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: do very well. This season, I think the majority of
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: teams after playing Denver have lost the next game. I
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: don't know what the record is now. It was really
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: bad earlier in the season, but now Washington's coming up
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: of that. They did have a bye prior to that,
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: but now they're coming up that game. They're gonna go
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: on the road, and they do have a divisional game
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: up next against the Giants, so maybe a game that
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: maybe they'll focus on, although probably means more to the
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: Giants because Washington did beat the Giants already, but still
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: a minute, I just don't know if Washington's gonna be
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: focused on Minnesota. Man, as we say, a team that's dead,
• 40:33
  Speaker 1: like they're not going anywhere this year, like Washington, the
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: games that they're gonna get up for are primetime games
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: like they were just up for on Sunday at home,
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: and maybe divisional games maybe where they could spoil seasons
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: for opponents, So maybe Philadelphia, Dallas those remaining games, not
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: a game against Minnesota. Man. I just don't see where
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: the motivation comes from here for Washington. And again, they
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: just played a tough game and almost had the win
• 40:59
  Speaker 1: in primetime a game it's Denver that would have been
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: a huge win and they fell just short. Now they
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: gonna go to this Minnesota team, and Minnesota looked as
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: ugly as it gets last week. Man, Minnesota shut out
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: on the road at Seattle. Now they're coming back home. Yeah,
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: I know they played two games on the road, but
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: back in home, only home game in the in a
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: five week stretch. Minnesota hanging on for dear life here.
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: I think they're gonna show up for this game, man,
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: I think you're gonna get a better effort here. Again,
• 41:25
  Speaker 1: teams also don't want to get embarrassed. When teams get
• 41:28
  Speaker 1: shut out like this in the NFL, usually you're gonna
• 41:30
  Speaker 1: get value on them in the next game. They're gonna
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: play better. And of course we know that was Brosmer
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: at quarterback there, and that was basically the reason they
• 41:38
  Speaker 1: lost this game was Brosmer turning the ball over maybe
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: one of the worst pick sixes you'll ever see in
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: this game. Look at the yardage in this game, Like
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: Seattle only won the yards volt two nineteen to one
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: sixty two. The game was just awful on both sides.
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: Minnesota got penalized at the time Minnesota lost to turn
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: up in a bout of five to two, negative three
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: into runovers. You know they're gonna use this They're gonna
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: use this week to clean that up, man. And I'm
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: gonna go against what I said last week, Brosmer is
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: worse than McCarthy. But guess what we're getting. We're getting
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: JJ McCarthy back for this game. And I know normally
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna say, well, that means it's a reverse injured
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: player spot right where the team is gonna ease up
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: because their quarterback comes back. Are you really gonna ease
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: up when you just lost twenty six to nothing. I
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: don't think so, man. I think Minnesota is gonna show up. Uh.
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: And McCarthy, I mean, I think he's gonna try to
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: redeem himself with some really bad performances. I know he's
• 42:35
  Speaker 1: not good, but he's facing a week Washington deepfense here too,
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: so I think he might be able to do something
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: against this deepense, even though I know he hasn't looked
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: good against you know, Chicago for example. But I you
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: gotta think Minnesota is at least gonna show up here
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: for Washington. Let's throw another angle that you hear Washington
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: is actually in the reverse injured players spot in this
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: game because Jaden Daniels is coming and Daniels has been
• 43:01
  Speaker 1: out since I don't even know what since this Seattle
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: game right. When Daniels wrecked his arm in that game
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: against Seattle. Almost looks RG three esque, except the arm
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: instead of the legs. So Daniels has missed three games
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: and Washington actually played fairly well in their last two games,
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: and now he's coming back again. When a player has
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: a long absence, which by the way, McCarthy's absence is
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: only one game, so like it's gonna be a lot
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: easier for McCart they just show back up after one
• 43:29
  Speaker 1: game that Daniel's coming off a long layoff like this,
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: This is the worst, like reverse injured player, spot man,
• 43:35
  Speaker 1: when your star quarterback has been out for a long time.
• 43:37
  Speaker 1: We don't even know what he's gonna be like with
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: his left arm, and it's his non throwing arm, but
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: it's not non throwing arm. We'll see how healthy it
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: really is. The team, you know, they might ease up
• 43:47
  Speaker 1: a little bit knowing that their quarterback is back. He
• 43:49
  Speaker 1: has to get back into rhythm and whatever. So that's
• 43:51
  Speaker 1: gonna throw a wrench into it. And that's also part
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: of the reason why the line has moved towards Washington.
• 43:57
  Speaker 1: I just don't really think they should be a favorite
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: on the road here. Man and like, is Washington really
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: so much better than the Vikings right now that they
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: should be laying points on the road. I don't really
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: see it. So we're gonna grab the Vikings for all
• 44:09
  Speaker 1: those reasons. Man. You know, the bounce back spot a
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: letdown spot for Washington, I think. And the worst reverse injured,
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: the worst reverse the worst reverse injured player spot is
• 44:21
  Speaker 1: the side that Washington is in. So yeah, yeah, the
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: Washington Engines. Yeah, the Vikings, Yeah, they're gonna have to
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: be the uh, the Somalian Pirates, all right. And then
• 44:32
  Speaker 1: the final game, I'm just gonna do it, man. On
• 44:35
  Speaker 1: Sunday night, We're gonna lay the points with the Kansas
• 44:37
  Speaker 1: City Chiefs minus three and a half. This has just
• 44:40
  Speaker 1: gotten too far, man, the Chiefs. We're getting live value
• 44:43
  Speaker 1: on the Chiefs here, and I know they're looking like
• 44:45
  Speaker 1: they're headed towards four. It's not much of a difference
• 44:47
  Speaker 1: here because I know these the timer has gone off there.
• 44:51
  Speaker 1: But Chiefs minus the points here, I could I could
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: turn it back on, I guess, or turn the timer off,
• 44:56
  Speaker 1: I mean, turn the banner back on. I hate, dude,
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: I hate a streamyard does this now? I think I
• 45:01
  Speaker 1: did have it off for the other one. I just
• 45:03
  Speaker 1: didn't have it off for this one, all right, Kansas
• 45:05
  Speaker 1: City three and a half four, I mean, hopefully not
• 45:08
  Speaker 1: too much of a difference between those two. But as
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: you can see, the look ahead in this game is
• 45:11
  Speaker 1: gonna be five and a half for the Chiefs. And now, basically,
• 45:14
  Speaker 1: just based off of what these teams did last week,
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: we're getting three and a half. So we're getting live
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: value on the Chiefs. Man, a team that's pretty good,
• 45:22
  Speaker 1: like the Chiefs getting live value like this, and pretty
• 45:26
  Speaker 1: much their season is kind of on the line here, man.
• 45:28
  Speaker 1: I know, I don't like to take teams in like
• 45:30
  Speaker 1: must win scenarios earlier when they're laying a favorite price
• 45:33
  Speaker 1: like this, but it's a short price, and I think
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: you're gonna see the Chiefs show up here, man, And
• 45:39
  Speaker 1: the public doesn't really want them based on what they've
• 45:41
  Speaker 1: seen recently, fifty one percent of tickets on the Texans,
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: sixty percent of the cash on the Chiefs. I think
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: the Chiefs are still the better team, man, and they're
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: basically getting a little bit more than home field here
• 45:52
  Speaker 1: at most. I think they should be a heavier favorite
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: than this last year in the playoffs. These two teams
• 45:57
  Speaker 1: faced off, and there were pretty similar teams last year, right,
• 46:00
  Speaker 1: Texans Chiefs, and the Chiefs were what were they like,
• 46:03
  Speaker 1: a nine point favorite I think in that game. So
• 46:07
  Speaker 1: I think you were definitely getting live value here. I'm
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: not saying they should be a nine point favorite this year.
• 46:11
  Speaker 1: They're not really as good this year, I don't think,
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: but the personnel is pretty similar. And again, yeah, I
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: think the five and a half would be about fair
• 46:19
  Speaker 1: in this one. Yes, I know, speaking of the playoffs,
• 46:21
  Speaker 1: it is playoff revenge for the Texans. Technically, the Chiefs
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: knocked them out of the playoffs. I think maybe two
• 46:27
  Speaker 1: years in a row the Chiefs knocked them out of
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: the playoffs. But this game, it just matters more to
• 46:32
  Speaker 1: the Chiefs man, I mean for the Texans. Both these
• 46:36
  Speaker 1: teams are fighting for wildcard positioning potentially, but the Texans
• 46:40
  Speaker 1: they can get into the playoffs by winning their division
• 46:42
  Speaker 1: as well. The Chiefs do not have that option. So
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: the Chiefs, I think They're gonna have more motivation here
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: because the Chiefs need to beat some of these wildcard
• 46:51
  Speaker 1: potential opponents. Here. The Chiefs already lost to Buffalo, so
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: that's not gonna help them. So that's a bad situation
• 46:58
  Speaker 1: for the Chiefs that they don't have the the tiebreaker
• 47:01
  Speaker 1: against Buffalo now because they lost that. I think the
• 47:04
  Speaker 1: Chiefs did lose the tiebreaker to another one of these
• 47:07
  Speaker 1: teams too, I forget which team, but they got to
• 47:09
  Speaker 1: get it done. Man. They cannot lose the tiebreaker to
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: the Texans as well. Texans again, they could still win
• 47:15
  Speaker 1: their division to it. They have divisional matchups remaining as
• 47:18
  Speaker 1: well against well. I don't think they can play Jacksonville
• 47:21
  Speaker 1: again though, but they could still just overtake teams in
• 47:25
  Speaker 1: their division. The Chiefs. Again, they can't catch Denver, so
• 47:28
  Speaker 1: the Chiefs need to beat these wildcard teams. And if
• 47:31
  Speaker 1: the Chiefs lose this game and fall below five hundred,
• 47:35
  Speaker 1: they're pretty much not gonna make the playoffs here. So
• 47:39
  Speaker 1: I know sometimes I say you shouldn't do it because
• 47:41
  Speaker 1: there's pressure on that team, but again, what I think
• 47:45
  Speaker 1: is a very very cheap price, We're gonna do it.
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: Chiefs also have extra rest, and they didn't look good.
• 47:51
  Speaker 1: People saw them on Thursday and they lost to Dallas,
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: so I thought they would win that game. But they
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: were coming up a decent win over Indy, So the
• 47:59
  Speaker 1: Chiefs you have a tiebreaker against Indy were Indie to
• 48:03
  Speaker 1: fall into the wildcard race, So that's at least good
• 48:07
  Speaker 1: for the Chiefs. For the Chiefs, I think a road
• 48:09
  Speaker 1: out of conference game just didn't matter as much to
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: the Chiefs, man, and they fell short against Dallas. But
• 48:14
  Speaker 1: now everybody saw the Chiefs lose. The Chiefs haven't looked good.
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: They've lost three out of four and yeah, and now
• 48:22
  Speaker 1: they do have extra time off though, so again they
• 48:24
  Speaker 1: have more rest here, which I think is good. And
• 48:26
  Speaker 1: for the Chiefs, what else are they gonna say? Oh yeah,
• 48:30
  Speaker 1: I mean looking at the recent losses, I mean their
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: losses were to Buffalo, Denver and then Dallas was the
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: ugliest one of the three. I mean, you can't really
• 48:37
  Speaker 1: blame them for losing those games. And they're all on
• 48:39
  Speaker 1: the road too. So I saw that the Chiefs are
• 48:41
  Speaker 1: a bad team, and they faced a very difficult schedule.
• 48:44
  Speaker 1: I mean, look at their schedule this year. They played
• 48:47
  Speaker 1: the Chargers, the Ravens, which Lamar Jackson got hurt in
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: the middle of that game, the Eagles, the Lions. They've
• 48:54
  Speaker 1: played some difficult teams, man. So the Chiefs, they're undervalue here.
• 48:58
  Speaker 1: They're not as bad as the record. Look, they're also
• 49:00
  Speaker 1: five and one at home. You're getting the Chiefs at
• 49:02
  Speaker 1: home where they do play a lot better. They win
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: at home. Man, they did lose back at home against Philadelphia,
• 49:09
  Speaker 1: But since then, I mean, what have they done. They
• 49:11
  Speaker 1: won un covered at home against Baltimore, one un covered
• 49:14
  Speaker 1: at home against Detroit, one uncovered at home against the Raiders,
• 49:17
  Speaker 1: one uncovered at home against Washington. So that's what four? Yeah,
• 49:24
  Speaker 1: four straight wins and covers and five straight wins at home,
• 49:28
  Speaker 1: and they just missed the cover against Indy. So they're
• 49:31
  Speaker 1: much much better at home for Houston. Houston doesn't have
• 49:35
  Speaker 1: the additional rest and they're coming off multiple huge wins. Man,
• 49:38
  Speaker 1: they beat Buffalo, which was huge for wildcard implications, but
• 49:43
  Speaker 1: huge win nonetheless at home in primetime on a Thursday.
• 49:46
  Speaker 1: We got the win on that on the show. And
• 49:48
  Speaker 1: then Houston they really needed the game against Indy to
• 49:51
  Speaker 1: get back into the divisional race, and they were able
• 49:53
  Speaker 1: to do it, even though it was Stroud's return last week.
• 49:56
  Speaker 1: That was a huge win for Houston too. So now
• 49:58
  Speaker 1: they're coming off playing on Sunday, so they have a
• 50:01
  Speaker 1: shorter week here. Than Kansas City does and winning a
• 50:04
  Speaker 1: huge divisional matchup on the road. Man, So I think
• 50:07
  Speaker 1: that makes this a bit of a bad spot, maybe
• 50:10
  Speaker 1: even a letdown spot for Houston here. And it's a
• 50:13
  Speaker 1: third road game in four weeks for Houston, which is
• 50:15
  Speaker 1: also not great. Playing all these road games could start
• 50:19
  Speaker 1: to take its toll a little bit. And we're also
• 50:22
  Speaker 1: looking at the fact that this is an arrowhead at night,
• 50:25
  Speaker 1: so the weather may become a factor here. Man, this
• 50:28
  Speaker 1: is a freezing temperature game twenty six degrees And C. J.
• 50:32
  Speaker 1: Stroud doesn't play in environments like this very often. And
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: I know people say, oh, but he played at Ohio State. Yeah,
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: but college they don't play like this deep into the season.
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: I know college is still going on right now, but
• 50:44
  Speaker 1: still they don't really play cold weather games in college
• 50:47
  Speaker 1: like this. Stroud, by the way, in cold weather games,
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: he's done it twice. I checked it out. Actually, we
• 50:54
  Speaker 1: can actually look at Houston the last couple of years here.
• 50:58
  Speaker 1: By the way, Yes, I do know Stroud has second
• 51:00
  Speaker 1: game back. Yes, usually teams do play better in the
• 51:03
  Speaker 1: game with their quarterback back for the second game back.
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: But Davis Mills was filling in really well. For Stroud Man,
• 51:09
  Speaker 1: So I don't even know how much of them an
• 51:11
  Speaker 1: upgrade Stroud really is at this point. But if you
• 51:13
  Speaker 1: look at in the past, as I mentioned, they did
• 51:16
  Speaker 1: lose on the road to Kansas City in January and
• 51:20
  Speaker 1: cold temperatures. They did lose in December late December at
• 51:23
  Speaker 1: Kansas City by a similar margin also last year. So
• 51:27
  Speaker 1: it just seems like they don't do well in Arrowhead
• 51:29
  Speaker 1: Man Houston, Like I just think Kansas City kind of
• 51:31
  Speaker 1: has their number to some extent. And then the year
• 51:34
  Speaker 1: before that, I went back and I looked at Stroud's
• 51:36
  Speaker 1: road December games outdoors, and there was only one other
• 51:41
  Speaker 1: one and it was earlier in December two years ago
• 51:44
  Speaker 1: in his rookie season, which was his best season. They
• 51:47
  Speaker 1: got destroyed by the New York Jets thirty to six
• 51:50
  Speaker 1: on the road by the Jets. Yes, and Stroud only
• 51:54
  Speaker 1: had ninety one passing yards in that game. So really
• 51:58
  Speaker 1: really ugly stuff man Stroud in December and onward when
• 52:02
  Speaker 1: Stroud has to go and play in cold weather environments
• 52:04
  Speaker 1: on the road, I believe he is owned three owned
• 52:09
  Speaker 1: four What did I determine there? Something like that including playoffs. Yeah,
• 52:15
  Speaker 1: so actually one of the games is in the well.
• 52:17
  Speaker 1: The other one was on the in Baltimore January twentieth,
• 52:21
  Speaker 1: Baltimore in the playoffs the year before that. So yeah,
• 52:24
  Speaker 1: cold weather games for Stroud. So basically from December onward outdoors.
• 52:29
  Speaker 1: He's owned four in these games in his NFL career,
• 52:32
  Speaker 1: and his team did not cover any of them and
• 52:36
  Speaker 1: they lost by like a decent margin in all of them.
• 52:39
  Speaker 1: So I don't like it, man, I don't like Stroud
• 52:41
  Speaker 1: going outdoors. We're gonna do it. We're gonna lay the
• 52:44
  Speaker 1: points of the Chiefs, and I think that's it. That's
• 52:47
  Speaker 1: the breakdown for that. That's gonna do it. Taylor Swift
• 52:52
  Speaker 1: are bad Bunny, Taylor Swift. I would rather have Taylor Swift, yeah,
• 53:00
  Speaker 1: I mean, she's at least more, she's at least American. Man.
• 53:05
  Speaker 1: Uh so that yeah, I would go Taylor Swift for sure.
• 53:08
  Speaker 1: Even though her music is garbage, it's at least I mean,
• 53:12
  Speaker 1: her music is less demonic at least really, although it's
• 53:16
  Speaker 1: mostly just about like I don't know x'es and whatever
• 53:18
  Speaker 1: as far as I know, I don't know. I don't
• 53:20
  Speaker 1: really listen to them. But bad Bunny, it's gonna be
• 53:22
  Speaker 1: some real like demonic stuff. Man. Yeah, yeah, that too.
• 53:27
  Speaker 1: All right, that's gonna do it. Man. My plays for
• 53:29
  Speaker 1: tomorrow for the NFL or Minnesota plus the points and
• 53:32
  Speaker 1: Kansas City minus the points. Let's get it. I'll be
• 53:36
  Speaker 1: back in the morning. We got some Uh, there's a
• 53:38
  Speaker 1: little bit of college basketball tomorrow and probably a little
• 53:40
  Speaker 1: bit of NBA and NHL and tomorrow night. I believe
• 53:44
  Speaker 1: I'll be back. I don't know what I'm gonna do, man,
• 53:46
  Speaker 1: because I was thinking, like, should I do like a
• 53:48
  Speaker 1: bowl special? But I don't even know if I should
• 53:50
  Speaker 1: do that, because like it's it almost doesn't even make
• 53:54
  Speaker 1: sense to start talking about the Bulls right away because
• 53:57
  Speaker 1: like so much news comes out later. So I always
• 53:59
  Speaker 1: talk about the Bowls on the day that they're played.
• 54:01
  Speaker 1: But it almost makes sense to just do it that way,
• 54:04
  Speaker 1: even though I know the lines move a ton sometimes
• 54:08
  Speaker 1: like from like the outset and you miss like line value.
• 54:11
  Speaker 1: But sometimes it's because the information is just not out
• 54:14
  Speaker 1: there yet, and then later it's like, oh, this team
• 54:17
  Speaker 1: is just not even gonna show up for this bowl, now,
• 54:19
  Speaker 1: you know what I mean? So I will do a
• 54:22
  Speaker 1: playoff college football playoff bracket special, though I will definitely
• 54:26
  Speaker 1: do that either tomorrow night or like Monday, so I'll
• 54:30
  Speaker 1: come back and do that. But yeah, so we we'll
• 54:34
  Speaker 1: have that. Yeah, Bowl previews. I just can't do it. Man,
• 54:38
  Speaker 1: they're gonna be again, it's gonna be like forty bowls
• 54:41
  Speaker 1: and like again, you don't even know who's gonna be
• 54:44
  Speaker 1: playing in half of them until like closer to when
• 54:47
  Speaker 1: the game goes. So I just don't think it's like
• 54:49
  Speaker 1: feasible and it would and it would be like a
• 54:51
  Speaker 1: three hour show for almost no reason, Thank you, sir. Yeah, Uh,
• 54:57
  Speaker 1: learn it to on Twitter, learn it to on on Instagram, Like,
• 55:00
  Speaker 1: subscribe to the show here, give me good comments, et cetera.
• 55:03
  Speaker 1: Uh audio listen and give me a good review on
• 55:06
  Speaker 1: Apple and Spotify. That all helps me out. Yeah, and
• 55:11
  Speaker 1: uh what else covered in yuke my my yuke channel
• 55:14
  Speaker 1: on YouTube and then not Patreon dot com slash learned
• 55:17
  Speaker 1: to toe Charles. I. I went to look at your
• 55:20
  Speaker 1: uh your messages on there, and like I couldn't see
• 55:23
  Speaker 1: any messages, Like there was something going on with Patreon,
• 55:25
  Speaker 1: I swear, like because you could see I uploaded some
• 55:28
  Speaker 1: new some new songs up there, but I couldn't see
• 55:30
  Speaker 1: any of the messages, so there's something going on there,
• 55:32
  Speaker 1: like what is going on? I'll check again. I mean
• 55:35
  Speaker 1: it was probably just a glitch or something, but I'll
• 55:37
  Speaker 1: check again. Patroon dot com slash Learned to Toe and
• 55:39
  Speaker 1: you can request yuke stuff and there is a Yuke
• 55:42
  Speaker 1: Spotify feed as well there and check out the new
• 55:46
  Speaker 1: podcasts the loser Cast, which I'm on with Layton of
• 55:50
  Speaker 1: Outlaud Thoughts. The first episode is on his channel there
• 55:54
  Speaker 1: also it'll be on the loser Cast channel starting this Tuesday,
• 55:59
  Speaker 1: I believe, And we got Tyler Yankee, the Tower Game
• 56:02
  Speaker 1: producer is on it too, and then Brosiff Smith and
• 56:05
  Speaker 1: then I forget the other guy's name. I apologize to
• 56:07
  Speaker 1: my co host, who I had never met before Tuesday,
• 56:11
  Speaker 1: so we got those and hopefully no longer any women
• 56:14
  Speaker 1: will be allowed on the show late and so we
• 56:17
  Speaker 1: got to clean that up, but I had fun. And
• 56:20
  Speaker 1: then tomorrow the first episode of My Giants podcast with
• 56:25
  Speaker 1: Ben the Emo Ankap, who is a big Giants fan
• 56:28
  Speaker 1: and I am a Dart fan and I'm at least
• 56:30
  Speaker 1: a fan of When the Giants beat the Patriots, when
• 56:32
  Speaker 1: I hated the Patriots, although I now don't really hate
• 56:35
  Speaker 1: the Patriots in their current regime because it's being anti
• 56:38
  Speaker 1: Belichick to be pro Patriots. Right now, I'm patriotic again, man.
• 56:44
  Speaker 1: But yes, it's called the G Spot, which was my
• 56:47
  Speaker 1: idea to call it, to call it that the spot
• 56:50
  Speaker 1: for all the Giants things, and we're the homies hang
• 56:52
  Speaker 1: out the G Spot for the G Men. So we'll
• 56:57
  Speaker 1: see how that episode goes. It's a bye for the Giants.
• 57:00
  Speaker 1: So oh, I forgot to mention that. Yeah, there are
• 57:02
  Speaker 1: four teams on buy this week and they're New England, Carolina,
• 57:06
  Speaker 1: the Giants, and I don't even remember who the other
• 57:09
  Speaker 1: team is on by this week, but nobody had to
• 57:11
  Speaker 1: buy last week. San Francisco is the other team on bye.
• 57:15
  Speaker 1: And this is the last week of byes so and
• 57:19
  Speaker 1: not the last week of Gays. But yes, be on
• 57:23
  Speaker 1: the lookout for the G Spot. Man. That'll be the
• 57:26
  Speaker 1: Giant Podcast with me and Ben and we'll see what happens.
• 57:29
  Speaker 1: And Adam Nutter will be jealous of us. Maybe we'll
• 57:32
  Speaker 1: start letting him on. I don't know, I'm straight g's Yeah, Dave,
• 57:36
  Speaker 1: what's up? Man? You caught me just in time because
• 57:38
  Speaker 1: I'm wrapping up the show here. Yeah, I mean you
• 57:41
  Speaker 1: can go back and see my more full fledged analysis
• 57:44
  Speaker 1: on it. But I like the Packers. I would lay
• 57:46
  Speaker 1: the points to the but you know, dude, I hate
• 57:48
  Speaker 1: the bayle I don't hate the Bears as a team,
• 57:52
  Speaker 1: like Okay, like everybody thinks that that's the case, but no,
• 57:56
  Speaker 1: Like I just think that they're the most overrated NFL
• 57:59
  Speaker 1: team that I've ever seen. And I don't think Cale
• 58:01
  Speaker 1: Williams is any good. I think the Wheels are just
• 58:03
  Speaker 1: gonna come off of the team at some point, man.
• 58:06
  Speaker 1: And just again, now they're coming off like their biggest win,
• 58:09
  Speaker 1: like a win where they actually got a legit win
• 58:12
  Speaker 1: against the legit team, the Eagles. I just don't see
• 58:15
  Speaker 1: them repeating that again. I like the Packers in that game.
• 58:18
  Speaker 1: If you can lay less than a touchdown on it,
• 58:21
  Speaker 1: I like it. And yeah, that's gonna do it. And
• 58:24
  Speaker 1: for Dave once again, Vikings plus the points and Kansas
• 58:28
  Speaker 1: City minus the points are my actual plays here that
• 58:31
  Speaker 1: I'm giving out on the show. Vikings are also a
• 58:33
  Speaker 1: good teaser piece because they're at plus one and a half,
• 58:36
  Speaker 1: so you can tease them up to seven and a half.
• 58:39
  Speaker 1: I don't hate that idea either. But the problem is
• 58:41
  Speaker 1: you gotta find a team to tease them with, and like,
• 58:43
  Speaker 1: who do you tease them with? The Buccaneers basically got
• 58:46
  Speaker 1: teaser killed up to nines, you can't really tease them anymore.
• 58:51
  Speaker 1: You could tease the Jaguars. That might not be a
• 58:54
  Speaker 1: bad idea, teasing the Jags up to US seven and
• 58:57
  Speaker 1: a half because, as I on a two teams six
• 58:59
  Speaker 1: point t because like I said, the Colts have not
• 59:02
  Speaker 1: won in Jacksonville for eleven years, so maybe that's a
• 59:06
  Speaker 1: way to look in that one as well. Maybe that
• 59:08
  Speaker 1: would be the teaser. I don't really do teasers, but
• 59:11
  Speaker 1: the last one I recommended was a winner, so I
• 59:13
  Speaker 1: think if I was gonna do any sort of teaser here,
• 59:16
  Speaker 1: maybe that would be it. I mean, I suppose if
• 59:20
  Speaker 1: you're looking at the Jets plus two and a half,
• 59:21
  Speaker 1: you could tease them up to plus eight and a
• 59:23
  Speaker 1: half as well. I mean eight and a half Dolphins
• 59:26
  Speaker 1: on the road just seems just like there's no way
• 59:29
  Speaker 1: that they would be able to cover that, So maybe
• 59:32
  Speaker 1: that would be an idea as well. You could also
• 59:35
  Speaker 1: tease the Broncos down just to win the game. I mean,
• 59:38
  Speaker 1: they're probably not gonna lose that game, so there is
• 59:41
  Speaker 1: that as well, so some ideas there, but I like
• 59:44
  Speaker 1: Minnesota just win the game anyway, so that's gonna do it.
• 59:47
  Speaker 1: I appreciate it guys, Thanks again for hanging out everybody,
• 59:51
  Speaker 1: and I'll be back in the morning. Peace,