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Cubs/Pirates MLB + WNBA Playoffs Best Bets Tuesday 9/16/25 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Yep.
• 0:01
  Speaker 2: Inside, I want to kill myself. We're on OWN seven
• 0:06
  Speaker 2: run over the last two days after tonight.
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: It was just complete bullshit.
• 0:10
  Speaker 2: So that's that's I'm gonna start off this show horrible
• 0:13
  Speaker 2: Sunday one and five.
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: I don't even know what to tell you about that.
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: I just don't want to do this anymore.
• 0:19
  Speaker 2: I have never seen anything like this. Man with the
• 0:23
  Speaker 2: slump continuing. Two straight losses, not a good day at all.
• 0:27
  Speaker 2: Own four, I have not had a good season. Man
• 0:31
  Speaker 2: with wookends the slump that I'm on, and the slump continues.
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: I've reached into pink.
• 0:38
  Speaker 2: Actually, I'm going to burn my browins hat Man, I
• 0:42
  Speaker 2: don't know what is going on with the bruins arch hape?
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: Is that what it is? I don't even know it's
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: It's March ninth, I think who even knows? Man, I
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: don't know what day is anymore. But I don't even
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: know what data is anymore. Man, back with you after
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: the worst stay that I.
• 0:58
  Speaker 2: Could possibly have, Back with you as I always am.
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: Until I die at least oh and two. Yesterday and
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: yesterday did not go well for me. Own five the worst.
• 1:10
  Speaker 2: Month that I've ever had in my eighteen years doing this.
• 1:13
  Speaker 2: I don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
• 1:15
  Speaker 2: The slump, the slump discontinues, the slump continues.
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: Somebody fucking kill me, please.
• 1:23
  Speaker 2: I don't even know what I should do at this point,
• 1:25
  Speaker 2: other than potentially.
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: End it all. What's up, everybody, it's towed back with you.
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: Better off deed.
• 1:37
  Speaker 2: Tuesday, September sixteenth, things are not going well. I should
• 1:41
  Speaker 2: be dead. I mean, you guys are probably gonna kill me.
• 1:46
  Speaker 2: Don't take my advice at all. Obviously one and two yesterday,
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: I mean the Baltimore Orioles one. That was a tough loser, man,
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: because I gave out the run line. If I'd given
• 1:57
  Speaker 2: out the money line in the first five, it was
• 1:59
  Speaker 2: run line first. I had given up the money line
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: in the first five, it would have been a push
• 2:03
  Speaker 2: full game. Both run line and money line actually cashed
• 2:07
  Speaker 2: because the Orioles scored later in the game. It was
• 2:09
  Speaker 2: a one to one game I think at the end
• 2:11
  Speaker 2: of five, So it was a loser on the run line.
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: Just kind of bullshit. I mean, the.
• 2:17
  Speaker 2: Orioles put up all their runs later in the game.
• 2:19
  Speaker 2: Their bullpen. The Orioles have the thinnest bullpen right now
• 2:22
  Speaker 2: in baseball. They only have seven bullpen arms, which during
• 2:26
  Speaker 2: September call ups, that's not that many. White Sox offense
• 2:31
  Speaker 2: is so bad that the Oriols bullpen still got it done,
• 2:34
  Speaker 2: which I had just gone full game on it.
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: I saw some stat I think the Orioles have won
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: like something like nine of the last ten games against
• 2:42
  Speaker 2: the White Sox or something like that as well. So
• 2:44
  Speaker 2: that was something I forgot to bring up yesterday.
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: That was a loser.
• 2:47
  Speaker 2: He did get the win on the Cincinnati Reds. I
• 2:50
  Speaker 2: believe our man Pete, who was in the chat yesterday,
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: also got his win on that one of the first
• 2:55
  Speaker 2: five innings. I believe Cincinnati was winning at the end
• 2:58
  Speaker 2: of five. I think it was like five to two.
• 2:59
  Speaker 2: Maybe it wound up being a six to sixth tie,
• 3:03
  Speaker 2: not that much later, like oh my god, Pete's gonna
• 3:06
  Speaker 2: win and I'm gonna lose. But Cincinnati was able to
• 3:10
  Speaker 2: put it up, put up runs against the Saint Louis bullpen,
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: which I told you was overworked, even though they are
• 3:15
  Speaker 2: a good bullpen on the season.
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: So we're able to get a pretty easy win actually
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: in the end on that one.
• 3:21
  Speaker 2: Eleven to six after it was a six to sixth
• 3:23
  Speaker 2: tie after Cincinnati.
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: Blew a multiple run lead.
• 3:28
  Speaker 2: Yeah, Cincinnati was able to put up a bunch of
• 3:30
  Speaker 2: late runs in that one to get the lead back
• 3:32
  Speaker 2: and extend it and win. And then we lost on
• 3:36
  Speaker 2: the Vegas Raiders. Man, I mean it was looking decent
• 3:39
  Speaker 2: early on. I mean it was an ugly low scoring game,
• 3:41
  Speaker 2: just what I expect.
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: And it's just every time the Raiders scored it was
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: a field goal. I mean that was it.
• 3:49
  Speaker 2: The Chargers only one more scoring drive than Vegas did.
• 3:52
  Speaker 2: So when you hear that, I mean that means that
• 3:55
  Speaker 2: you're an underdog has a decent, like a decent chance
• 3:59
  Speaker 2: to cash. I didn't look what the yardage wound up
• 4:01
  Speaker 2: being at the end of that game. I know Vegas
• 4:03
  Speaker 2: lost the turnover battle by multiple turnovers. That obviously is
• 4:07
  Speaker 2: not going to help you. I mean it was it
• 4:10
  Speaker 2: was the type of game that I expected. Like I said,
• 4:13
  Speaker 2: even though the money was coming in on the over,
• 4:15
  Speaker 2: I didn't really think so. Even though I also thought
• 4:17
  Speaker 2: that the under would kind of help the Chargers because
• 4:20
  Speaker 2: that's their style, but it was a low scoring game.
• 4:23
  Speaker 2: I still thought it was gonna be a close, a
• 4:25
  Speaker 2: close one, man, and it was not close enough. Just yeah,
• 4:29
  Speaker 2: very very frustrating on that one. And I was not
• 4:32
  Speaker 2: right about Houston either. Houston definitely could have won that
• 4:35
  Speaker 2: game against Tampa. I mean, Houston had the lead right
• 4:39
  Speaker 2: near the end. Right, they're winning by more than what
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: the spread was. They were winning by almost a touchdown
• 4:46
  Speaker 2: I think at the end in Tampa got a late
• 4:48
  Speaker 2: touchdown drive to win the game. Houston's defense failed when
• 4:51
  Speaker 2: it mattered most right at the end. So that would
• 4:54
  Speaker 2: have been frustrating if you're on Houston as well, Curtis,
• 4:56
  Speaker 2: what's up, man, Thanks for joining.
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: I'm here a little bit early today. We're gonna get
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: into it. I only have two plays today.
• 5:02
  Speaker 2: One's gonna be the WNBA and the other is gonna
• 5:05
  Speaker 2: be Major League Baseball. I'm getting back into WNBA just
• 5:09
  Speaker 2: because people wanted it. We're gonna be zig zagging in
• 5:12
  Speaker 2: the WNBA playoffs.
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: Let's go to the breakdown.
• 5:16
  Speaker 2: I really don't like the baseball card today, man, and
• 5:19
  Speaker 2: even the play that I do have and almost seems
• 5:21
  Speaker 2: too obvious, so it's probably also gonna lose WNBA. We
• 5:26
  Speaker 2: have two games today now, these series, I think these
• 5:30
  Speaker 2: are all only three game series after the WNBA. I
• 5:33
  Speaker 2: think all the series in the playoffs they think are
• 5:36
  Speaker 2: just three game series.
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: I guess because we're shifting venues here.
• 5:39
  Speaker 2: We're traveling Atlanta as the home team won against Indiana
• 5:43
  Speaker 2: in game one, now they're going out on the road.
• 5:47
  Speaker 2: Atlanta won the game fairly decisively. They won it by twelve,
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: so they covered. So you know, me, this is not
• 5:52
  Speaker 2: gonna be the one that's my play. But I would say,
• 5:54
  Speaker 2: you want to zigzag this, I would lean to Atlanta
• 5:57
  Speaker 2: and the excuse I would lean to Indiana in this
• 6:00
  Speaker 2: and after Atlanta beat them in game one, you want
• 6:02
  Speaker 2: to kind of dig into the box score see like
• 6:03
  Speaker 2: was there any reason, Like was there like an outlier
• 6:07
  Speaker 2: in this game? Indiana actually started out in the lead
• 6:09
  Speaker 2: early in the game. Uh, the game was actually still
• 6:12
  Speaker 2: tied after Atlanta had taken the lead for a bit.
• 6:14
  Speaker 2: They were tied in the third quarter. So the game
• 6:17
  Speaker 2: it was definitely closer than it looked on the final score.
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: Indiana, I mean, Indiana just kind.
• 6:22
  Speaker 2: Of fell off in the fourth quarter. But you know,
• 6:25
  Speaker 2: Indiana is running with a very very thin roster right
• 6:29
  Speaker 2: now here, So that's kind of the problem with Indiana.
• 6:33
  Speaker 2: You know, they don't have cunning him, they don't have Clark.
• 6:35
  Speaker 2: They shot really poorly in this game though, neither team
• 6:38
  Speaker 2: shot well, but Indiana thirty four point nine percent from
• 6:41
  Speaker 2: the field, thirteen point three percent from three. So I
• 6:44
  Speaker 2: do see reasons why Indiana should make some adjustments and
• 6:48
  Speaker 2: play better this time out. Now, the other thing you
• 6:51
  Speaker 2: have to take into account is the number. Indiana was
• 6:53
  Speaker 2: like a seven Excuse me, Atlanta was like a seven
• 6:55
  Speaker 2: and a half point favorite in that one. Now they're
• 6:57
  Speaker 2: only a three and a half point favorite on the road.
• 6:59
  Speaker 2: So taking into account, you know, the shifting in venues,
• 7:02
  Speaker 2: I mean that line basically makes sense.
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: So I mean, there doesn't seem.
• 7:07
  Speaker 2: To be a whole lot of line value, But I
• 7:09
  Speaker 2: would lean to Indiana anyway, because I think when you
• 7:11
  Speaker 2: lose like that and you don't you have an off
• 7:13
  Speaker 2: shooting night, I think you do make the adjustments and
• 7:16
  Speaker 2: come out and play better. Fifty percent of tickets are
• 7:18
  Speaker 2: on Atlanta, sixty nine percent of the cash on Indiana,
• 7:23
  Speaker 2: And I mean, if you want to be like seriously
• 7:25
  Speaker 2: handicap the stuff, you can also look into which I
• 7:28
  Speaker 2: should be doing. You can also look into what they
• 7:30
  Speaker 2: did during the regular season. So Indiana lost the first
• 7:34
  Speaker 2: game and then turned around in the zigzags. Indiana did
• 7:36
  Speaker 2: zigzag and won on the road, But remember Clark was
• 7:40
  Speaker 2: playing in those games. I don't know how much you
• 7:41
  Speaker 2: can really take away from that. They went one to
• 7:43
  Speaker 2: one in those early games. Clark, I don't know if
• 7:47
  Speaker 2: she played in this other game where they got absolutely
• 7:49
  Speaker 2: annihilated at Atlanta, and then they did beat Atlanta at
• 7:52
  Speaker 2: home again, and that was with Clark and Cunningham again,
• 7:54
  Speaker 2: So I'm not sure that Indiana has beaten Atlanta without Clark.
• 8:00
  Speaker 2: So yeah, I mean they have not, right, because that
• 8:03
  Speaker 2: was a bad loss to Atlanta there.
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: So they split the season series two and two.
• 8:08
  Speaker 2: But I think Indiana's wins both came with Cunningham and
• 8:11
  Speaker 2: Clark playing.
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: So what can you really take away from that? Not
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: a whole lot.
• 8:17
  Speaker 2: Indiana is better at home, though they're above five hundred
• 8:20
  Speaker 2: at home, which I'm gonna kind of fade that sentiment.
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: In the game. I'm gonna give you the game. I'm
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: gonna give out.
• 8:25
  Speaker 2: Atlanta is slightly better than that on the road, but
• 8:28
  Speaker 2: it looks like the home road dichotomy kind of gives you,
• 8:32
  Speaker 2: you know, it's so close that it looks like there
• 8:34
  Speaker 2: may be some value in Indiana as the home team.
• 8:36
  Speaker 2: Both these games are ond ESPN by the way, WNBA
• 8:39
  Speaker 2: gets the ESPN billing, and it's basically just like fuck baseball.
• 8:43
  Speaker 2: Baseball doesn't get to be televised. It's all so ridiculous, man,
• 8:47
  Speaker 2: Even though Baseball were in the final two weeks and
• 8:49
  Speaker 2: there's playoff implications in some of the series. Yeah, but again, Indiana,
• 8:56
  Speaker 2: a lot of that home record was with Cunningham and
• 8:59
  Speaker 2: some of it was with Clark as well, so I
• 9:01
  Speaker 2: don't think there's a whole lot to even take away
• 9:02
  Speaker 2: from that either. But I would slightly link to Indiana anyway.
• 9:05
  Speaker 2: The market is going that way, and it is the
• 9:07
  Speaker 2: zigzag spot. But I think the better playing is in
• 9:10
  Speaker 2: this other game, and it is Seattle plus five and
• 9:12
  Speaker 2: a half.
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: Now I know Seattle.
• 9:15
  Speaker 2: They're kind of a newly formed team, so not really
• 9:18
  Speaker 2: used to this playoff structure here. But Vegas isn't really
• 9:22
  Speaker 2: that used to playing in Seattle either. I don't think
• 9:24
  Speaker 2: Vegas has gone to this venue since early in the season,
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: so that's one advantage that Seattle might have here. Even
• 9:31
  Speaker 2: though I know Seattle, their home record isn't that good.
• 9:34
  Speaker 2: So that's what I just alluded to. They're not one
• 9:36
  Speaker 2: of these teams that does well at home. They're actually
• 9:37
  Speaker 2: below five hundred at home, which that worries me a
• 9:40
  Speaker 2: little bit. It means they were actually better on the road.
• 9:42
  Speaker 2: Vegas is not as good on the road as they
• 9:45
  Speaker 2: are at home, obviously, although they're above five hundred on
• 9:48
  Speaker 2: the road. I mean, they're definitely a strong team. But
• 9:50
  Speaker 2: the thing that really jumps out at me in this
• 9:52
  Speaker 2: game is the line is the same as it was
• 9:54
  Speaker 2: in the first game. Vegas is down from six to
• 9:56
  Speaker 2: five and a half. Here, seventy four percent of tickets
• 9:59
  Speaker 2: on them, only sixty three percent of the cash. I
• 10:01
  Speaker 2: know Vegas has won like sixteen whatever games in a
• 10:05
  Speaker 2: row or whatever, but we don't need Seattle to win
• 10:07
  Speaker 2: the game. They only need to cover. So I know
• 10:09
  Speaker 2: we're kind of jumping in front of that Vegas train here.
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: But this is a zigzact spot, which I'll show you
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: in a minute.
• 10:15
  Speaker 2: I think it's the bigger of the two zigzag spots
• 10:18
  Speaker 2: in this line. To me, it makes no sense. Vegas
• 10:21
  Speaker 2: was a five and a half point favorite at home
• 10:24
  Speaker 2: in Game one, so you're shifting venues going up to Seattle,
• 10:27
  Speaker 2: and you're telling me the line is going to be
• 10:28
  Speaker 2: the same on Vegas even though you shifted venues and WNBA.
• 10:33
  Speaker 2: I know, home court doesn't matter that much in the playoffs.
• 10:36
  Speaker 2: I mean, you gotta at least give a team like
• 10:38
  Speaker 2: maybe one and a half for home court, and you're
• 10:40
  Speaker 2: giving me absolutely nothing. I mean, it doesn't make any sense.
• 10:44
  Speaker 2: So I think there is line value on Seattle here
• 10:47
  Speaker 2: at Seattle's really not that bad of a team.
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: I think they kind of underperformed.
• 10:51
  Speaker 2: They started out a little bit questionable because they were
• 10:54
  Speaker 2: trying to get used to their new roster. Although Vegas
• 10:57
  Speaker 2: you could say the same thing about them. Vegas brought
• 11:01
  Speaker 2: in I think at least one new piece there.
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: Now, when you look at the first game, it was
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: a blowout.
• 11:08
  Speaker 2: It was one hundred and two to seventy seven, Vegas
• 11:10
  Speaker 2: winning by I mean that's an embarrassing margin for Seattle.
• 11:13
  Speaker 2: Vegas winning the game by whatever, that is twenty five
• 11:16
  Speaker 2: points blowout win.
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: So it's like, well, why did that happen?
• 11:21
  Speaker 2: You get to dig into it. I mean it was
• 11:23
  Speaker 2: basically Vegas just ran away with the game.
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: On the scoreboard.
• 11:26
  Speaker 2: Vegas shot out of their minds in the game, though,
• 11:28
  Speaker 2: fifty point seven percent from the field and forty eight
• 11:31
  Speaker 2: point three percent from three. That's insane, so I think
• 11:34
  Speaker 2: that's an outlier, especially the three point percentage. That is
• 11:36
  Speaker 2: a ridiculous three point percentage there. And I don't know
• 11:40
  Speaker 2: if Vegas is really that known for even hitting a
• 11:42
  Speaker 2: lot of threes. They do a lot of their damage inside,
• 11:45
  Speaker 2: usually with Asia Wilson. They had fourteen to three pointers
• 11:50
  Speaker 2: in the game compared to seven from Seattle, and there
• 11:54
  Speaker 2: was a lot of home cooking at the line as well.
• 11:56
  Speaker 2: They had twenty one free throw attempts Seattle only had eleven,
• 11:59
  Speaker 2: so I'm expecting those things to maybe change here as
• 12:02
  Speaker 2: we change venues.
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: I don't think.
• 12:03
  Speaker 2: Vegas could possibly shoot that well again from three, and
• 12:07
  Speaker 2: I don't see the free throw descrapant see being as
• 12:09
  Speaker 2: crazy this time either, even though I know Wilson is
• 12:12
  Speaker 2: dominant on the inside and does draw a lot of fouls,
• 12:15
  Speaker 2: so I think it's gonna be a zig zag spot.
• 12:17
  Speaker 2: I think Seattle's gonna be able to make some adjustments here.
• 12:20
  Speaker 2: We're getting line value because the line hasn't changed at all,
• 12:22
  Speaker 2: which is insane. And then looking at the games against
• 12:27
  Speaker 2: each other during the regular season. This is interesting. Vegas
• 12:32
  Speaker 2: never covered this number against Seattle this entire season. They
• 12:35
  Speaker 2: played them four times, they never beat them by this margin.
• 12:39
  Speaker 2: First game was actually at Seattle and Seattle won the
• 12:42
  Speaker 2: game by twenty points. And by the way, every one
• 12:44
  Speaker 2: of these games had all of Vegas's players, Like all
• 12:47
  Speaker 2: the big players are in every one of these games, Wilson, Lloyd,
• 12:53
  Speaker 2: whoever the hell else they have Wilson Lloyd, I forget
• 12:56
  Speaker 2: that there are other players. Man, they have four, like
• 12:58
  Speaker 2: really good players, and they all play in all four games. Wilson, Lloyd, Young,
• 13:03
  Speaker 2: and Gray all played in all of them. So because
• 13:07
  Speaker 2: I dug into the box score, so there wasn't like
• 13:08
  Speaker 2: a huge injury on any of the on any of
• 13:11
  Speaker 2: the teams here. So yeah, the first time they played
• 13:14
  Speaker 2: in Seattle, they lost by twenty. Then they immediately played
• 13:17
  Speaker 2: again in Seattle, so they haven't played there since June first,
• 13:20
  Speaker 2: so it's been a long time since they played in Seattle.
• 13:22
  Speaker 2: And they won that game Vegas did, but only by five,
• 13:25
  Speaker 2: so they didn't cover the five and a half. Then
• 13:27
  Speaker 2: when they played at home, they actually lost to Seattle
• 13:30
  Speaker 2: by seven, and then they beat them by four in
• 13:32
  Speaker 2: the final home game against them. So again, all the
• 13:36
  Speaker 2: games that they play were close except the one blowout
• 13:38
  Speaker 2: Seattle wins so Vegas aside from that playoff game, which
• 13:42
  Speaker 2: I know they covered in that game, obviously, during the
• 13:44
  Speaker 2: regular season they never covered this number. They didn't cover
• 13:46
  Speaker 2: in either game at Seattle, including having a blowout loss
• 13:50
  Speaker 2: there with all their starters playing. So I think there
• 13:54
  Speaker 2: was a lot of value with Seattle here, man, And
• 13:57
  Speaker 2: there's like no reason why the number should be where
• 13:59
  Speaker 2: it is while we have is Samuelson is listed on
• 14:02
  Speaker 2: the injury report for Seattle, but she's been out all
• 14:05
  Speaker 2: season anyway, like she's been out for months, so there's
• 14:07
  Speaker 2: no change here. There's no like, there's no personnel change here.
• 14:12
  Speaker 2: So there's no reason this line should be the same
• 14:14
  Speaker 2: as it was in Vegas. Makes no sense. So take
• 14:18
  Speaker 2: Seattle plus the points there. I went into that series
• 14:21
  Speaker 2: saying I thought Seattle could maybe give Vegas a little
• 14:24
  Speaker 2: bit of a problem at some point in that series,
• 14:26
  Speaker 2: And if it's gonna happen, it should happen in the
• 14:29
  Speaker 2: game in Seattle.
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: At the very least. Maybe Seattle'll still get swept, but I.
• 14:33
  Speaker 2: Think they might be able to put up a fight
• 14:36
  Speaker 2: in this particular game.
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: Let's go to Major League Baseball.
• 14:41
  Speaker 2: You're not gonna have to well, I was gonna say,
• 14:42
  Speaker 2: you're not gonna have to wait that long for my
• 14:44
  Speaker 2: best bet. But it's gonna it's gonna be at the
• 14:45
  Speaker 2: end of the show. It's one of the games it's earlier.
• 14:48
  Speaker 2: Although there's only one after noon game, we'll call this
• 14:51
  Speaker 2: the breakdown segment. As usual, there is one after noon
• 14:54
  Speaker 2: game because it's actually a double header between Atlanta and Washington,
• 14:57
  Speaker 2: so they must be having a makeup game for some
• 15:00
  Speaker 2: game that was rained out earlier in the season. So
• 15:03
  Speaker 2: that's the only afternoon game is Game one between Atlanta
• 15:06
  Speaker 2: and Washington.
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: These teams did play yesterday, and.
• 15:09
  Speaker 2: I was correct about the over, and I said, I
• 15:11
  Speaker 2: almost wanted to give that out as a play. I
• 15:12
  Speaker 2: should have Spencer Strider, I think, actually pitched okay in
• 15:16
  Speaker 2: the game. Washington's pitching was expectedly terrible in the game.
• 15:20
  Speaker 2: Should have gone with it, should have gave it, should
• 15:22
  Speaker 2: have given it out as a play. I gave you
• 15:23
  Speaker 2: that as a lean. A lot of my leans that
• 15:24
  Speaker 2: think wound up being correct yesterday, So that was one
• 15:27
  Speaker 2: of them that was a stronger one for me on
• 15:29
  Speaker 2: the over should have given it out. It was an
• 15:31
  Speaker 2: eleven to three Atlanta win. Looking at the bullpen usage,
• 15:35
  Speaker 2: Atlanta does have the better bullpen. Washington didn't use a
• 15:38
  Speaker 2: ton of their bullpen yesterday and neither did Atlanta, so
• 15:40
  Speaker 2: Atlanta's bullpen usage actually still a little bit lighter than Washington's.
• 15:45
  Speaker 2: So Atlanta has the better bullpen. Atlanta has the better
• 15:48
  Speaker 2: offense as well, I believe. I mean we could dig
• 15:50
  Speaker 2: into that real quick. Washington's offenses, yeah, they're like a
• 15:54
  Speaker 2: bottom several offense. So yeah, Atlanta's got the better offense
• 15:58
  Speaker 2: as well. Game one, we don't know who Atlanta started.
• 16:01
  Speaker 2: Pitcher is gonna be though, so I don't know if
• 16:03
  Speaker 2: they're gonna call somebody up because it's September and it's
• 16:06
  Speaker 2: I forget if there are different rules for double header.
• 16:09
  Speaker 2: I think he might be able to call somebody else up,
• 16:11
  Speaker 2: and that's in the back down. I forget what the
• 16:12
  Speaker 2: rule is. So it's a difficult game to handicap. Jake
• 16:16
  Speaker 2: Irvin is pitching for Washington. He hasn't had a good
• 16:19
  Speaker 2: season five point seven ERA one point four to three whip.
• 16:23
  Speaker 2: He's better at home five point one five ERA, but
• 16:26
  Speaker 2: better is relative. He hasn't been good in his two
• 16:29
  Speaker 2: starts this month. He got bombed by the Cubs for
• 16:32
  Speaker 2: seven runs and three to third innings. Did a little
• 16:34
  Speaker 2: bit better last time out against Miami three ear in
• 16:36
  Speaker 2: runs in five innings, four strikeouts.
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: No walks. He still has a six to four strike.
• 16:41
  Speaker 2: Out walk ratio this month ten point eighty R and
• 16:44
  Speaker 2: those two starts. He was not good at all in
• 16:47
  Speaker 2: August either, eight eight point seven eighty RA sixteen to
• 16:50
  Speaker 2: twelve strike out walk ratio. I mean, in a way,
• 16:53
  Speaker 2: it seems like he's starting to wear down a little bit,
• 16:55
  Speaker 2: even though he threw more innings and he was better
• 16:57
  Speaker 2: last year.
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: So I don't know what to think.
• 16:59
  Speaker 2: Man, He's just not doing well. His numbers are pretty
• 17:02
  Speaker 2: good against Atlanta though, in sixty six at bats thirteen
• 17:06
  Speaker 2: to six strike a walk ratio not great, but to
• 17:08
  Speaker 2: twenty seven average six fifty five ops a lot, so
• 17:11
  Speaker 2: he doesn't do that badly against the Braves historically. But again,
• 17:15
  Speaker 2: I just don't really know how we're gonna handicap this
• 17:17
  Speaker 2: because we don't know what Lanta's starter is and they
• 17:19
  Speaker 2: still are favored. They're up for minus one forty to
• 17:22
  Speaker 2: minus one fifty. Atlanta is as a road favorite. I
• 17:27
  Speaker 2: don't know what you want to do with that. The
• 17:29
  Speaker 2: totals sitting at nine, so it's a fairly high total.
• 17:32
  Speaker 2: I can see arguments for an over because Atlanta's pitching
• 17:35
  Speaker 2: situation may not be very good, but we really don't know.
• 17:38
  Speaker 2: The bullpens are not terrific, especially Washington's. Washington's is really bad,
• 17:44
  Speaker 2: and Irvin just hasn't been good at all this year,
• 17:46
  Speaker 2: even though he does typically do well against Atlanta. I
• 17:48
  Speaker 2: would probably lean more towards his recent performance in the
• 17:51
  Speaker 2: fact that he has not been good. I think that
• 17:53
  Speaker 2: matters more so, maybe in over in game one, but
• 17:57
  Speaker 2: I would really hesitate to give out anything on that
• 17:59
  Speaker 2: one because I don't know. And then Game two, between
• 18:02
  Speaker 2: the two teams in the evening, we know what the
• 18:04
  Speaker 2: starting pitching matchup is gonna be. It's a much more
• 18:06
  Speaker 2: enticing starting pitching matchup, a sexier pitching matchup. Both pitchers
• 18:11
  Speaker 2: are better looking as well as what I mean, no,
• 18:14
  Speaker 2: not really maybe, but that game we don't know what
• 18:18
  Speaker 2: the bullpen usage is gonna be in the first game,
• 18:21
  Speaker 2: so it makes it hard to handicap Game two as well,
• 18:24
  Speaker 2: because you don't know what to start with the bullpen
• 18:26
  Speaker 2: usage is gonna be in Game one, you could probably
• 18:29
  Speaker 2: kind of assume that the bullpen usage isn't gonna be
• 18:32
  Speaker 2: great on either side. You can handy gap the starting
• 18:35
  Speaker 2: pitching matchup a little bit better, which we have Chris
• 18:37
  Speaker 2: Sale pitching for Atlanta, and obviously Atlanta is gonna be
• 18:41
  Speaker 2: a pretty big favorite because of that. He is obviously
• 18:43
  Speaker 2: the better pitcher. He's been injured a little bit throughout
• 18:46
  Speaker 2: the season, but he's been good even at the age
• 18:48
  Speaker 2: of thirty six. Great season last year when he's pitched.
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: He's been really good this year too.
• 18:53
  Speaker 2: Two point five two ERA one point one to two
• 18:55
  Speaker 2: whip a little bit worse.
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: On the road. Two point six four ERA is still
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: really good. Good.
• 19:01
  Speaker 2: Since he's come back from injury, he's been excellent. Since
• 19:03
  Speaker 2: late August. He's given up three or fewer earned runs
• 19:06
  Speaker 2: and all three starts given up one each in the
• 19:09
  Speaker 2: first two starts. Nine strikeouts a piece in each start,
• 19:13
  Speaker 2: twenty seven to two strikeout walk ratio over this man.
• 19:16
  Speaker 2: His command is right on. He's striking out a lot
• 19:18
  Speaker 2: of guys. The last start was the only one that
• 19:21
  Speaker 2: he gave up more than one run. He gave up
• 19:22
  Speaker 2: three ear runs and five innings against the Cubs. It
• 19:25
  Speaker 2: is the Cubs, they can hit, but he still had
• 19:27
  Speaker 2: nine strikeouts in that one, like I said, and one
• 19:30
  Speaker 2: walks on. I mean Sale, he's on point again right now.
• 19:33
  Speaker 2: And because of his injury, he hasn't thrown as many pitches.
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: He hasn't thrown as many innings.
• 19:37
  Speaker 2: This year either, So he's not wearing down or anything
• 19:40
  Speaker 2: like that. But of course Atlanta's not going anywhere. Neither
• 19:42
  Speaker 2: of these teams are going anywhere, so something to point
• 19:45
  Speaker 2: out the motivation. These teams are both playing out the stretch.
• 19:49
  Speaker 2: Atlanta definitely underperformed this year. Washington might try to show
• 19:52
  Speaker 2: up because they got embarrassed yesterday and it is at
• 19:55
  Speaker 2: least a name team that they're facing in Atlanta. Sale
• 19:58
  Speaker 2: against Washington thirty five career of bats, not a lot, surprisingly,
• 20:03
  Speaker 2: nine to two strikeout walk race here, two fifty seven average,
• 20:05
  Speaker 2: seven eighty three ohps is a little bit high. He's
• 20:08
  Speaker 2: allowed five doubles to them in a home run to
• 20:10
  Speaker 2: Josh Bell. So Sale isn't excellent against Washington, but it's
• 20:15
  Speaker 2: not like I expect him to be bad. In this game, obviously,
• 20:17
  Speaker 2: I don't. I think he will be pretty good. He's
• 20:20
  Speaker 2: going up against Mackenzie Gore, who has a lot of
• 20:23
  Speaker 2: strikeout talent man, and I take it back. He's not
• 20:26
  Speaker 2: better looking to Jay Gerban. But his numbers, I mean,
• 20:30
  Speaker 2: they're just not great this season. Four point one four
• 20:33
  Speaker 2: ERA is alright, but one point three to three whip
• 20:35
  Speaker 2: is a bit high.
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: He's just wild man. He walks too many guys. That's
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: his issue.
• 20:41
  Speaker 2: He is worse at home four point seventy three homey RA.
• 20:45
  Speaker 2: He's been, I guess okay over his last five starts.
• 20:48
  Speaker 2: He's allowed no more than three on runs in any
• 20:50
  Speaker 2: of them. Faced some pretty brutal offenses in their Philly
• 20:54
  Speaker 2: Mets Yankees, but he hasn't exactly been great. His walk
• 20:58
  Speaker 2: number is still high. Last down against Miami, he was
• 21:01
  Speaker 2: okay in five innings tour and runs left, four strikeouts,
• 21:04
  Speaker 2: two walks.
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: I don't know if he's gonna be.
• 21:06
  Speaker 2: Able to compete with Chrissale. His numbers are not great
• 21:09
  Speaker 2: against Atlanta. They're worse than sales are against Washington's for sure.
• 21:13
  Speaker 2: Seventy eight at bats against Atlanta, twenty one to nine
• 21:15
  Speaker 2: strike a walk, racious. So again, it's a lot of
• 21:18
  Speaker 2: strikeouts and a lot of walks two sixty nine batting
• 21:21
  Speaker 2: average allowed, eight eighty three ops. So Gore doesn't do
• 21:25
  Speaker 2: particularly well there against Atlanta. Atlanta's up for minus one
• 21:27
  Speaker 2: seventy to minus one seventy eight. I mean, you're always
• 21:30
  Speaker 2: gonna pay too much of a price with Chrysale on
• 21:32
  Speaker 2: the mound. That total did drop from seven and a
• 21:36
  Speaker 2: half to seven. It's a very low total there, so
• 21:39
  Speaker 2: kind of expecting a pitching duel there, I'm not quite
• 21:41
  Speaker 2: sure that I would want to bank on that. And
• 21:43
  Speaker 2: if you were gonna go with the total under there,
• 21:47
  Speaker 2: I would worry about the full game. Man, Washington's bullpen
• 21:50
  Speaker 2: being really bad and you don't know what their usage
• 21:52
  Speaker 2: is gonna be in the first game.
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: Does seem a little bit dicey.
• 21:55
  Speaker 2: It's very hard to handicap both these games, man, But
• 21:58
  Speaker 2: there's nothing that I really want on the s started
• 22:00
  Speaker 2: pitching matchup there.
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: I mean, I think Sales should out pitch Gorn that game.
• 22:04
  Speaker 2: But do you really want to lay some sort of
• 22:06
  Speaker 2: price with Atlanta there, Like you want to lay like
• 22:09
  Speaker 2: a minus half run and probably pay a little bit
• 22:11
  Speaker 2: for that.
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: In the first five, and I don't really I don't really.
• 22:14
  Speaker 2: Want to, even if that might be the way that
• 22:17
  Speaker 2: makes sense to play it, I'll stay away. Cubs at
• 22:21
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh is gonna be my play, as you can see,
• 22:24
  Speaker 2: so a'll weight on that would be probably already know
• 22:26
  Speaker 2: what it is. It almost seems too obvious. Cleveland at Detroit.
• 22:30
  Speaker 2: These teams didn't play yesterday.
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: Detroit.
• 22:34
  Speaker 2: I don't know if they're kind of just you know,
• 22:36
  Speaker 2: on cruise control a little bit here or what's going on.
• 22:39
  Speaker 2: I mean, they definitely stepped it up for the Yankees series.
• 22:41
  Speaker 2: They have not played well in the recent series against
• 22:43
  Speaker 2: the other teams they played, though, but they're playing against
• 22:46
  Speaker 2: Cleveland here today and Cleveland's within six.
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: And a half games, so that in.
• 22:50
  Speaker 2: The division, which is insane that Cleveland could possibly overtake Detroit.
• 22:54
  Speaker 2: I don't think it will happen, but it doesn't mean
• 22:57
  Speaker 2: Detroit might actually have to pay attention in the seas.
• 23:01
  Speaker 2: But I think Cleveland might actually show up with more
• 23:03
  Speaker 2: motivation than Detroit here because Detroit is still their lead
• 23:07
  Speaker 2: is still fairly comfortable in the division. I mean, they
• 23:09
  Speaker 2: basically if they win one game in the series, they'll
• 23:12
  Speaker 2: be fairly comfortable, I think still, But I mean, if
• 23:15
  Speaker 2: you're Detroit, I think you have to be trying to
• 23:17
  Speaker 2: like play for at least playoff seeding here because you're
• 23:20
  Speaker 2: battling with some other teams with good records. They should
• 23:22
  Speaker 2: have motivation. But they're returning o from a road trip
• 23:26
  Speaker 2: they did. They only went to New York, the Yankees,
• 23:29
  Speaker 2: like I said, and Miami, so it wasn't a long
• 23:31
  Speaker 2: road trip. They only went to the Eastern Times on whatever.
• 23:34
  Speaker 2: But it is still a return home spot. And you
• 23:36
  Speaker 2: know I talk about when teams return home sometimes they
• 23:39
  Speaker 2: are distracted.
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: They have to get back to home life.
• 23:42
  Speaker 2: They should be taking these games somewhat seriously, but maybe
• 23:45
  Speaker 2: they won't take it as seriously enough. With still a
• 23:48
  Speaker 2: decent lead in the division. Cleveland, they're really still not
• 23:51
  Speaker 2: as good as they look. Man, But because of their
• 23:54
  Speaker 2: record is good, maybe they'll be taken more seriously. But
• 23:58
  Speaker 2: Cleveland still has a really bad offense. De Troit's offense
• 24:00
  Speaker 2: is the better of the two. Of the Detroit's offense,
• 24:02
  Speaker 2: I think it's kind of slipped a bit. They're definitely
• 24:05
  Speaker 2: still the way better offense over Cleveland.
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: The bullpen, Cleveland has the better bullpen.
• 24:09
  Speaker 2: Their bullpen is actually fourth still in overall ERA this year.
• 24:13
  Speaker 2: Even though they lost class, they might actually even be
• 24:16
  Speaker 2: better without that distraction in there of his gambling or whatever.
• 24:21
  Speaker 2: It's crazy to think about that. Cleveland is starting a
• 24:24
  Speaker 2: road trip here with momentum. They've won a bunch of
• 24:26
  Speaker 2: games recently. Man, They've won whatever this is here, nine
• 24:31
  Speaker 2: of their last ten games.
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: I think they won four in a row.
• 24:34
  Speaker 2: Granted it was against not the greatest opponents Tampa Bay,
• 24:37
  Speaker 2: Kansas City White Sox.
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: Those are the teams they are beating.
• 24:40
  Speaker 2: Detroit has definitely a step up in class, but I
• 24:43
  Speaker 2: think they know that they're gonna be focused.
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: I mean, it's a focused spot.
• 24:46
  Speaker 2: Cleveland still thinks they could potentially compete for the division.
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: They're going out.
• 24:50
  Speaker 2: It would be ridiculous if they made the playoffs though,
• 24:52
  Speaker 2: because they are just so bad this year. Cleveland, and
• 24:57
  Speaker 2: they sold off at the trade deadline too, so that
• 24:59
  Speaker 2: makes it even more ridiculous. I'm pretty sure they did
• 25:03
  Speaker 2: Cleveland again there are going out on the road with
• 25:05
  Speaker 2: momentum though, to face the team leading their division. So
• 25:08
  Speaker 2: it's a focused spot for them. Joey Cantillo is pitching.
• 25:11
  Speaker 2: He might be the better of the two starters. Believe
• 25:14
  Speaker 2: it or not, he's pitching for Cleveland three point three
• 25:17
  Speaker 2: six ERA that is solid. One point three to one
• 25:19
  Speaker 2: whip is not very good. Though he was in the
• 25:22
  Speaker 2: in the bullpen for a while. I think they did
• 25:24
  Speaker 2: have him in the starting rotation a bit last year
• 25:27
  Speaker 2: and he's back in the starting rotation for them now.
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: He is actually better on.
• 25:30
  Speaker 2: The road three point oh two road ERA, and he's
• 25:34
  Speaker 2: been pretty good his last four starts. He's allowed one
• 25:37
  Speaker 2: or fewer earned runs, and all of them this month.
• 25:39
  Speaker 2: He's got at least six innings in both starts. He's
• 25:43
  Speaker 2: pitching well right now, man, except for the walks. The
• 25:45
  Speaker 2: walks are a bit too high last month, but he's
• 25:47
  Speaker 2: gotten those kind of down this month too, with a
• 25:49
  Speaker 2: twelve to two strike a walk ratio in his two
• 25:52
  Speaker 2: starts this one, and one of them was on the
• 25:54
  Speaker 2: road against the Red Sox, not an easy sign, and
• 25:57
  Speaker 2: he held them in a one earned run in six innings,
• 25:59
  Speaker 2: seven strike two walks. He did really well in that one,
• 26:02
  Speaker 2: and they followed that up with an eight in four
• 26:04
  Speaker 2: hit shutout of Kansas City with no walks five strikeouts,
• 26:08
  Speaker 2: So Kansas City not a good offense, but still Cantillo
• 26:11
  Speaker 2: is in form right now. He's pitching pretty impressively right now, man,
• 26:15
  Speaker 2: and because he was coming out of the bullpen whatever.
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: He's not going to be burned out or anything.
• 26:19
  Speaker 2: His innings pitched not very high right now, so that's
• 26:22
  Speaker 2: at least good for him. He also has good numbers
• 26:25
  Speaker 2: against Detroit. They only have ten at bats against him,
• 26:28
  Speaker 2: so he's fairly unfamiliar to them.
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: Two strikeouts, one walk, no extra base hits.
• 26:32
  Speaker 2: He's held them to a two hundred batting average four
• 26:35
  Speaker 2: to seventy three oh ps. I know it's a small
• 26:36
  Speaker 2: sample size, so you don't want to put too much
• 26:39
  Speaker 2: stock into that, but he has been good and limited
• 26:42
  Speaker 2: playing time against Detroit, and I think he probably is
• 26:44
  Speaker 2: better than Casey Mize who's pitching for Detroit, even though
• 26:48
  Speaker 2: Miz has the better whip, and usually I think whip
• 26:50
  Speaker 2: is a better indicator.
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: I still think Myze he's a guy that's not.
• 26:54
  Speaker 2: As good as his numbers look this year three point
• 26:56
  Speaker 2: eight three ERA, one point two to seven whip. He's
• 27:00
  Speaker 2: better at home three point four to seven home ERA.
• 27:05
  Speaker 2: He's done well in his two starts this month, and
• 27:07
  Speaker 2: they were against hard hitting opponents, the Mets and the
• 27:09
  Speaker 2: Yankees on the road.
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: He did well in both starts, had a two point.
• 27:12
  Speaker 2: Four or five ERA, win at least five innings in both,
• 27:15
  Speaker 2: allowed two or fewer in runs in both, and had
• 27:17
  Speaker 2: an eleven to.
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: Zero strikeout walk ratio.
• 27:20
  Speaker 2: So he definitely stepped it up in those starts. But
• 27:22
  Speaker 2: last month he wasn't even good. He had a five
• 27:25
  Speaker 2: point eight one ERA in August, although twenty three to
• 27:28
  Speaker 2: six strike out walk ratio is pretty good, but it
• 27:31
  Speaker 2: is mys. I mean, I guess you could argue he's
• 27:33
  Speaker 2: in pretty good form right now. I mean, what is
• 27:35
  Speaker 2: he gonna do against Cleveland?
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 27:36
  Speaker 2: Cleveland's offense isn't very good. He doesn't have good numbers
• 27:40
  Speaker 2: against him though in thirty eight at bats eight to
• 27:42
  Speaker 2: two strike at walk ratio is good, but two eighty
• 27:44
  Speaker 2: nine batting average, nine oh four ohps. He's allowed three
• 27:47
  Speaker 2: home runs to them, although two of them are from
• 27:49
  Speaker 2: Jose Ramirez. But overall he doesn't do very well against Cleveland.
• 27:55
  Speaker 2: It is a return home spot, you know, I'm kind
• 27:57
  Speaker 2: of tempted to do this. Cleveland with a bulp image
• 28:01
  Speaker 2: to Detroit stem for minus one fifty two and minus
• 28:03
  Speaker 2: one thirty seven eighty eight percent of tickets, ninety six
• 28:06
  Speaker 2: percent of the cash on them. So the money, I mean,
• 28:10
  Speaker 2: it seems like it's coming in on Detroit. But to me,
• 28:12
  Speaker 2: I think it's they're a public side and the money
• 28:15
  Speaker 2: the money line has dropped significantly against them, So I
• 28:17
  Speaker 2: think the money is actually coming in against them, and
• 28:19
  Speaker 2: it's coming in on the under.
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: I would agree with an under as well. Here. I
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: think I have two capable bullpens.
• 28:25
  Speaker 2: They're both rested. Uh, both starters could do okay here.
• 28:29
  Speaker 2: Total down from eight and a half to eight sixty
• 28:31
  Speaker 2: two percent tickets, only sixty percent of the cash on
• 28:33
  Speaker 2: the over.
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: One. Thing that does worry me a little bit.
• 28:36
  Speaker 2: If you want Cleveland here, and I do like Cleveland,
• 28:39
  Speaker 2: I would take them on the money line full game.
• 28:41
  Speaker 2: Detroit is really good at home still, but it is
• 28:44
  Speaker 2: a bad spot from them kind of. They're forty six
• 28:46
  Speaker 2: and twenty nine home Cleveland only five hundred on the
• 28:49
  Speaker 2: road thirty seven and thirty seven. Man, it is tempting,
• 28:53
  Speaker 2: though I kind of want to do it, to be honest,
• 28:56
  Speaker 2: Should we should be really should we be really stupid
• 28:59
  Speaker 2: to take a shot with with Cleveland? On this one
• 29:01
  Speaker 2: and give out an early play. I mean, it sounds crazy,
• 29:06
  Speaker 2: but I think it is the right side. Nah, stay
• 29:09
  Speaker 2: away just because the Cantillo sample size is too small.
• 29:13
  Speaker 2: I'll stay away, but I do I agree with the
• 29:15
  Speaker 2: Cleveland side on the money line full game, and I
• 29:17
  Speaker 2: agree with an under in that game. A's at Red Sox,
• 29:21
  Speaker 2: My Boston Red Sox. You gotta think they might be
• 29:24
  Speaker 2: in a little bit of a.
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: Letdown spot here. They're staying at home.
• 29:27
  Speaker 2: They did have yesterday off. Both of these teams had
• 29:29
  Speaker 2: yesterday off, but the Red Sox, they do have an
• 29:32
  Speaker 2: advantage in a way because they're not traveling. But I
• 29:34
  Speaker 2: think that it's a disadvantage as well because they just
• 29:37
  Speaker 2: beat the Yankees. They're coming up that huge series against
• 29:39
  Speaker 2: the Yankees. The Red Sox won the season zeries against them,
• 29:42
  Speaker 2: nine to four. They're still competing with the Yankees pretty
• 29:46
  Speaker 2: much for a wildcard spot. I think my prediction was wrong.
• 29:49
  Speaker 2: I said, like last month, the Yankees at plus two
• 29:52
  Speaker 2: to eight in a win the division, I thought was
• 29:53
  Speaker 2: a solid play.
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: I don't think it's.
• 29:56
  Speaker 2: Gonna happen now. Man, it looks like Toronto will be
• 29:58
  Speaker 2: able to actually win the division. And not a lot
• 30:00
  Speaker 2: of games left here. Red Sox one game behind the
• 30:04
  Speaker 2: yank because they're both in wildcard spots right now. I
• 30:07
  Speaker 2: believe fighting for those wildcard spots. Man, so that was
• 30:11
  Speaker 2: a big series Red Sox coming off of that might
• 30:13
  Speaker 2: not pay as much attention to the A's. The Red
• 30:15
  Speaker 2: Sox to just beat the A's on the road. They
• 30:18
  Speaker 2: shut them out in two starts, in two games on
• 30:20
  Speaker 2: the road, they shut them out, which is really crazy
• 30:23
  Speaker 2: in that stadium. Although the A's haven't used that stadium
• 30:26
  Speaker 2: to their advantage, they actually hit better on the road
• 30:28
  Speaker 2: for some reason, which is ridiculous.
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: And then the Red Sox did.
• 30:31
  Speaker 2: Lose the final game of that series by one run,
• 30:33
  Speaker 2: but the Red Sox did handle them for the most part.
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: In that series.
• 30:36
  Speaker 2: So arguably it is a little bit of revenge for
• 30:39
  Speaker 2: the A's here, so they might show up. I mean,
• 30:41
  Speaker 2: it's a game Infanway Park against the Red Sox. The
• 30:43
  Speaker 2: A's are coming off of sweeping Cincinnati, so the A's,
• 30:47
  Speaker 2: I mean, they're still playing like they want to win.
• 30:50
  Speaker 2: These young guys and want to go out there and
• 30:51
  Speaker 2: get some wins. They're not that bad. They're actually only
• 30:54
  Speaker 2: ten games below five hundred. Their offense is actually pretty good.
• 30:58
  Speaker 2: They're going out on the road with momentum, although it
• 31:00
  Speaker 2: is a situation where they do have to shift time zones.
• 31:04
  Speaker 2: Although this game is gonna be earlier for their biological clock,
• 31:07
  Speaker 2: which I think is a lot better than it being
• 31:09
  Speaker 2: later for a team's biological clock. The Red Sox have
• 31:13
  Speaker 2: the better bullpen here, the A's have the better offense,
• 31:16
  Speaker 2: so the both offenses are pretty good. They're both like
• 31:20
  Speaker 2: top ten offenses in ops this year. Red Sox have
• 31:23
  Speaker 2: a significant bullpen edge those The Red Sox are actually
• 31:25
  Speaker 2: the second best bullpen era this year. Even though their
• 31:29
  Speaker 2: bullpen I always complain about it, it seems like it's so
• 31:31
  Speaker 2: bad most of the time. Not really this year though
• 31:35
  Speaker 2: A's bottom. You know, several bullpens starting pitching. It that
• 31:39
  Speaker 2: you do have to give the edge to the Red
• 31:40
  Speaker 2: Sox again, and this is a matchup that happened in
• 31:43
  Speaker 2: the last series.
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: But I hesitate a little bit.
• 31:47
  Speaker 2: Jeffrey Springs is pitching for the A's decent season for him,
• 31:51
  Speaker 2: four point two eighty RA, one point two whip. He's
• 31:54
  Speaker 2: been good on the road away from that stadium that
• 31:57
  Speaker 2: really has hit her friendly. He's been a lot better
• 31:59
  Speaker 2: on the road three point six to one road r.
• 32:04
  Speaker 2: He hasn't been great over his last like several starts, though,
• 32:07
  Speaker 2: I mean he's not going terribly deep into most of
• 32:09
  Speaker 2: these starts, going five to two thirds or fewer in
• 32:12
  Speaker 2: all of his starts except one going all the way
• 32:14
  Speaker 2: back through eight August eleventh, I almost said April. This month,
• 32:18
  Speaker 2: he does have a ten to one strike a walk ratio,
• 32:20
  Speaker 2: which is good, but five point seven to three ERA,
• 32:24
  Speaker 2: and that is because he gave up five runs to
• 32:26
  Speaker 2: the Red Sox last time out in his home stadium.
• 32:29
  Speaker 2: His command was good in the game, but he gave
• 32:31
  Speaker 2: up a couple of home runs, didn't pitch wells They
• 32:33
  Speaker 2: lost the game six to nothing, so the Red Sox
• 32:36
  Speaker 2: got that win. Springs overall, he's not particularly good against
• 32:40
  Speaker 2: the Red Sox, but a lot of it is that
• 32:42
  Speaker 2: last outing. He's got forty six at bats against him.
• 32:46
  Speaker 2: Nine to two strike a walk ratio isn't that bad,
• 32:48
  Speaker 2: but two eighty three average a lot nine eighty six
• 32:50
  Speaker 2: oh ps. He's alloted five home runs to them, including
• 32:55
  Speaker 2: two to Refsnyder is not really the best Red Sox
• 32:58
  Speaker 2: hitter here. Snyder, by the way, I believe he's Asian,
• 33:02
  Speaker 2: A very strange name for an Asian man. Ref Snyder.
• 33:05
  Speaker 2: It's like the return of Back in the nineties, the
• 33:08
  Speaker 2: Red Sox had Troy O'Leary, like the irishman Troy O'Leary,
• 33:13
  Speaker 2: except he was.
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: A black guy.
• 33:15
  Speaker 2: I mean, I don't know, man, it's just the Red
• 33:18
  Speaker 2: Sox some like they have these outfielders where their name
• 33:21
  Speaker 2: doesn't match their ethnicity.
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: I don't know, it's bizarre. The Red Sox.
• 33:26
  Speaker 2: They got Connolly early pitching, and you might argue that
• 33:28
  Speaker 2: he got called up too early, but he's one of
• 33:32
  Speaker 2: their best pitching prospects. He kind of skyrocketed through and
• 33:35
  Speaker 2: they brought him up right after they brought up Peyton Toley,
• 33:37
  Speaker 2: and Early was even better than Totally in his first start.
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: I know.
• 33:40
  Speaker 2: Totally hasn't been that good since, and I think Totally
• 33:42
  Speaker 2: only made one other start since then. Because they're trying
• 33:45
  Speaker 2: to with these young guys. They're trying to be careful
• 33:47
  Speaker 2: and not like make them pitch too oftense. So I
• 33:50
  Speaker 2: think they're pitching on a little bit of a delay.
• 33:51
  Speaker 2: Although Earliest pitching on regular rest, he was excellent. He
• 33:55
  Speaker 2: faced the A's in that game. It was the same
• 33:57
  Speaker 2: pitching matchup against Springs. Early shut the A's out in
• 34:01
  Speaker 2: that ridiculous stadiums. That is an interesting sign, man, against
• 34:04
  Speaker 2: a pretty good A's lineup, even though I know, like
• 34:06
  Speaker 2: I said, they're not as good at home, which is
• 34:09
  Speaker 2: weird because it's a very hitter friendly stadium. He dominated
• 34:12
  Speaker 2: in five innings. He had eleven strikeouts in that outing.
• 34:16
  Speaker 2: Give a five hits, one walk, norn runs. That is domination. Man,
• 34:20
  Speaker 2: you have that many strikeouts. That's crazy, even though the
• 34:22
  Speaker 2: A's they might be a little bit more of a
• 34:25
  Speaker 2: strikeout prone lineup, even though they're a good hitting lineup.
• 34:27
  Speaker 2: But that is a great sign that this guy comes
• 34:30
  Speaker 2: out and just does that, has that many strikeouts in
• 34:32
  Speaker 2: his debut.
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: Good sign.
• 34:35
  Speaker 2: Now, the problem is he's not gonna have the unfamiliarity
• 34:39
  Speaker 2: edge now, even though this is only his second start ever.
• 34:42
  Speaker 2: He's facing the same team again. So that's some kind
• 34:44
  Speaker 2: of bad luck there, man, because I think part of
• 34:46
  Speaker 2: the reason he did so well was because the A's
• 34:48
  Speaker 2: had never seen him before. He doesn't have that advantage now,
• 34:51
  Speaker 2: so he might be a little bit worse in this game.
• 34:53
  Speaker 2: Early against the A's they had twenty at bats against
• 34:58
  Speaker 2: him in that game, no extra base hits, eleven strikeouts,
• 35:01
  Speaker 2: one walk, Like I said, two fifty average five thirty
• 35:04
  Speaker 2: six ops. We'll see what he can do in this game, man,
• 35:07
  Speaker 2: because if he is really really good, he might still
• 35:11
  Speaker 2: have a good start again in this one. Man, So
• 35:13
  Speaker 2: maybe he's still preferable over Springs. Uh, it's a little
• 35:18
  Speaker 2: bit worried. Some Red Sox seem like they're getting the
• 35:20
  Speaker 2: money though they're up or down for minus one fifty
• 35:22
  Speaker 2: five to minus one to fifty two. But they do
• 35:24
  Speaker 2: have seventy four percent of tickets ninety five percent of
• 35:26
  Speaker 2: the cash, So it does look like with the market
• 35:28
  Speaker 2: read right now, it does look like the money is
• 35:30
  Speaker 2: still coming in on the Red Sox.
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: I do still worry that it's a letdown spot.
• 35:34
  Speaker 2: For the Red Sox even though they are playing for
• 35:36
  Speaker 2: playoff to even try to make the playoffs here, so
• 35:39
  Speaker 2: they need to win games. Uh, but coming off that
• 35:42
  Speaker 2: Yankees win potentially could be a bit of a letdown.
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: Uh.
• 35:46
  Speaker 2: The total has dropped from nine to eight and a half,
• 35:48
  Speaker 2: eighty nine percent of tickets, only fifty five percent of
• 35:50
  Speaker 2: the cash on the over. I'm not sure that I
• 35:54
  Speaker 2: like that either, because the Red Sox do hit springs
• 35:56
  Speaker 2: pretty well. Early might do worse in this game that
• 35:59
  Speaker 2: he did in his first game again because the A's
• 36:01
  Speaker 2: just saw him, so that is not an advantage to him,
• 36:06
  Speaker 2: so I might actually disagree with that. I mean, I
• 36:09
  Speaker 2: could see this game potentially going over. It seems like
• 36:11
  Speaker 2: more components are there for an over than an under.
• 36:14
  Speaker 2: But Early, even if he pitches worse than he did
• 36:16
  Speaker 2: in that first game, if he's that good, he might
• 36:18
  Speaker 2: actually pitch well again here, So then it would probably
• 36:21
  Speaker 2: actually make sense to go with the Red Sox if
• 36:23
  Speaker 2: you think that's gonna happen, because the Red Sox do
• 36:24
  Speaker 2: have a bullpen edge here as well, which I hope happens.
• 36:27
  Speaker 2: But I mean in a letdown spot potential letdown spot,
• 36:31
  Speaker 2: I really don't want to do it. And if you
• 36:34
  Speaker 2: were to go under in the game, I mean you
• 36:37
  Speaker 2: got to worry about the A's bullpen a little bit.
• 36:39
  Speaker 2: But it is a situation where both bullpens are at
• 36:41
  Speaker 2: least rested, so at least there is that, and in
• 36:46
  Speaker 2: the letdown spot and with the A's traveling, it is
• 36:49
  Speaker 2: possible that the offenses are a little bit distracted or
• 36:52
  Speaker 2: less focus here.
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: San Diego is playing the Mets.
• 36:56
  Speaker 2: These two teams are off yesterday and the Mets broke
• 36:58
  Speaker 2: a long lost streak.
• 36:59
  Speaker 1: They were tanking men. I don't know. I have no
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: faith in the Mets.
• 37:03
  Speaker 2: Man when they're playing in a situation where they need
• 37:05
  Speaker 2: to win to try they had a chance to win
• 37:08
  Speaker 2: their division. Philadelphia lost their best pitcher for the season,
• 37:11
  Speaker 2: Wheeler and one of the Mets, and the Mets are
• 37:13
  Speaker 2: still trying to at least get a wildcard.
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: And what do they do they like basically crash and burn.
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: Makes no sense.
• 37:19
  Speaker 2: It seems like the pressure is just really getting to them.
• 37:21
  Speaker 2: They lost eight games in a row. They finally won,
• 37:24
  Speaker 2: and I told you they would with Nolan McLain on
• 37:26
  Speaker 2: the mound. I think that was more of a product
• 37:28
  Speaker 2: of Texas was in a bad spot. Texas had a
• 37:31
  Speaker 2: series against Houston coming up the next day. But the
• 37:34
  Speaker 2: Mets got the wins that did break the lost streak
• 37:37
  Speaker 2: at least, so you break that losing momentum. Sometimes that
• 37:40
  Speaker 2: newfound positive momentum will carry over into the series. This
• 37:44
  Speaker 2: is a big series. It does have wildcard implications. The
• 37:46
  Speaker 2: Mets need it more. San Diego's more secure in their
• 37:49
  Speaker 2: wildcard Spottle. The San Diego is still trying to beat
• 37:52
  Speaker 2: the Dodgers in their division. San Diego's traveling, so they
• 37:56
  Speaker 2: are having to make a cross country trip here.
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: They have momentum.
• 37:58
  Speaker 2: They just beat the Rockies at home, took three out
• 38:01
  Speaker 2: of four from the Rockies, I mean, but that.
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: Gives them positive momentum.
• 38:05
  Speaker 2: Here will be a focused spot for them. Seems like
• 38:09
  Speaker 2: it actually should be a focused spot for both teams
• 38:11
  Speaker 2: in San Diego. With a travel could be a little
• 38:13
  Speaker 2: bit of a disadvantage. This game has actually got TBS.
• 38:16
  Speaker 2: It's the one like televised game except Philly in La
• 38:19
  Speaker 2: is also televised late tonight. But those are both big games,
• 38:24
  Speaker 2: so at least you get those games televised. Some playoff
• 38:27
  Speaker 2: implications of both games there.
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: As far as this game.
• 38:31
  Speaker 2: Is concerned, San Diego has the better bullpen of the two.
• 38:34
  Speaker 2: Both teams didn't play yesterday, so the bullpen's arrested. The
• 38:36
  Speaker 2: Mets bullpen isn't terrible. Mets have a way better offense
• 38:40
  Speaker 2: than San Diego, so San Diego is.
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: A pretty substantial bullpenerge.
• 38:45
  Speaker 2: The Mets have kind of trailed off there like the
• 38:46
  Speaker 2: middle of the pack bullpen. Why San Diego is kind
• 38:49
  Speaker 2: of a bottom third offense and the Mets are in
• 38:51
  Speaker 2: the top third. So all the information you're trying to
• 38:55
  Speaker 2: get all the information out there. Man Michael King is
• 38:58
  Speaker 2: pitching for San Diego, and I prefer him in this
• 39:00
  Speaker 2: game over Clay Home, So I think San Diego does
• 39:03
  Speaker 2: have a pitching edge across the board in this game.
• 39:06
  Speaker 2: King two point eight to seventy RA this year, one
• 39:08
  Speaker 2: point oh seven whip. Good season, but it's been a
• 39:11
  Speaker 2: shortened season for him due to injury. He's a little
• 39:14
  Speaker 2: bit worse on the road three point sixty three road era.
• 39:17
  Speaker 2: Still not bad though now. He was injured in May.
• 39:21
  Speaker 2: He got injured, and then he tried to come back
• 39:23
  Speaker 2: and he only went two winnings against the Red Sox
• 39:27
  Speaker 2: and his team still won the game, unfortunately for me.
• 39:29
  Speaker 2: Back in August and then it looked like he went
• 39:31
  Speaker 2: on the shelf again. Looked like he got injured again.
• 39:34
  Speaker 2: He threw too many pitches in that outing. He came
• 39:36
  Speaker 2: back and he was pretty efficient in his most recent outy.
• 39:39
  Speaker 2: He came back and he went five innings against Cincinnati,
• 39:42
  Speaker 2: And that was a game where I went with San
• 39:44
  Speaker 2: Diego and it was kind of unfortunate that King was
• 39:47
  Speaker 2: apparently on a pitch count there, because he could have
• 39:49
  Speaker 2: gone deeper into the game. He only threw sixty three pitches,
• 39:53
  Speaker 2: very efficient for a five inning performance.
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: He did okay.
• 39:56
  Speaker 2: Gave up two earned runs, both on solo home runs,
• 39:59
  Speaker 2: which is weird in San Diego's park, which doesn't allow
• 40:01
  Speaker 2: a lot of home runs. Had only two strikeouts though
• 40:04
  Speaker 2: one walk, so his strikeout stuff wasn't totally up to
• 40:07
  Speaker 2: speed yet.
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: Three hits a lot, but.
• 40:08
  Speaker 2: It was still a decent performance from him, and you
• 40:11
  Speaker 2: got to expect that he's gonna get back into his
• 40:13
  Speaker 2: like groove at some point to start, you know, going
• 40:16
  Speaker 2: his normal pitch count again at some point fairly soon.
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: Here.
• 40:19
  Speaker 2: He hasn't allowed more than the three on runs in
• 40:21
  Speaker 2: any outing all season, so I think he's gonna be
• 40:24
  Speaker 2: pitching better again fairly soon. I mean, his first start
• 40:28
  Speaker 2: there coming back wasn't bad at all. He's going up
• 40:32
  Speaker 2: against the Mets here. Excuse me, he does have some
• 40:36
  Speaker 2: track record against the Mets because he's been in the
• 40:39
  Speaker 2: National League now and they played the Mets, played against
• 40:42
  Speaker 2: the Yankees when he was on the Yankees.
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: Most likely he's got forty seven.
• 40:45
  Speaker 2: At bats against the Yankee against the Mets. Excuse me,
• 40:49
  Speaker 2: twelve to four strikeout walk ratio two thirteen average, six
• 40:52
  Speaker 2: to seventy nine oh ps allowed. So he's some pray
• 40:56
  Speaker 2: fairly app fairly six almost said pretty that was like
• 41:00
  Speaker 2: fairly prairily. Uh, he's he's praying, man, he's a man
• 41:04
  Speaker 2: of God. Now I don't know if he is or not.
• 41:06
  Speaker 2: Christ is King though, so I don't know. Maybe maybe
• 41:10
  Speaker 2: maybe he's on the mound here, sir, the sermon on.
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: The mound when he's when he's gonna deliver. Man.
• 41:18
  Speaker 2: Sometimes this show gets unexpectedly funny for two seconds. King,
• 41:23
  Speaker 2: He does have pretty good numbers against the Mets, is
• 41:25
  Speaker 2: what I was trying to say. Uh, Clay Holmes is
• 41:27
  Speaker 2: pitching for the Mets. I don't trust him as much.
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: Man. Both of these guys actually were on the Yankees
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: at one point.
• 41:33
  Speaker 2: Holmes DCDRA this year three point seventy five for the Mets.
• 41:36
  Speaker 2: But his whip is too high one point three to five.
• 41:39
  Speaker 2: So that indicates he's not as good as his era looks.
• 41:42
  Speaker 2: He's gotta be some regression there. He's a little bit
• 41:44
  Speaker 2: worse at home three point eight two home era he
• 41:48
  Speaker 2: hasn't been that good recently, man.
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: Last month he had a twenty to ten strike a.
• 41:52
  Speaker 2: Walk ratio, which is not very good, too many walks
• 41:55
  Speaker 2: four point three two era very mediocre. This month six
• 41:59
  Speaker 2: point two to three, failed to go five innings and
• 42:01
  Speaker 2: either start eleven to six strike out walk ratio.
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: Good strikeout rate but very high walk rate, so still
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: not good.
• 42:10
  Speaker 2: Those are both on the road though, at Detroit and
• 42:12
  Speaker 2: at Philly, so not easy starts for him there against
• 42:16
  Speaker 2: some teams to play pretty well at their home stadiums,
• 42:19
  Speaker 2: and especially Philly hits well, so maybe you give Holmes
• 42:23
  Speaker 2: a pass for that, but I'm gonna call him homes
• 42:27
  Speaker 2: like homeye homes. Holmes does not have good numbers against
• 42:30
  Speaker 2: San Diego though, in forty three at bats six to five,
• 42:33
  Speaker 2: strike out walker ratio three forty nine average nine eight
• 42:36
  Speaker 2: oh ps, so he doesn't do well against San Diego.
• 42:40
  Speaker 2: So I kind of have to lead to San Diego
• 42:43
  Speaker 2: in this game, man, But the money is completely disagreeing
• 42:45
  Speaker 2: with that. San Diego's got eighty four percent of the
• 42:48
  Speaker 2: tickets only seventy one percent of the cash on them,
• 42:51
  Speaker 2: So san Diego is a very public road underdog here
• 42:54
  Speaker 2: and you know what.
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: I say about that.
• 42:55
  Speaker 2: When you have a public road underdog and they're up
• 42:58
  Speaker 2: against a good team, which I would say the Mets
• 43:01
  Speaker 2: still are, even though they've been vastly underperforming, you do
• 43:05
  Speaker 2: usually want to look to the favorite when you see
• 43:07
  Speaker 2: market indicators like this, man, because you're basically getting a
• 43:10
  Speaker 2: good team as the favorite and the public doesn't want them,
• 43:13
  Speaker 2: so they're kind of underpriced. The Mets are up for
• 43:15
  Speaker 2: minus one ten to minus one twenty three here, so
• 43:18
  Speaker 2: money has moved up on the Mets as well, so
• 43:21
  Speaker 2: I guess I would have to lean that way, but
• 43:25
  Speaker 2: I mean I don't want to. I mean, the market
• 43:27
  Speaker 2: is saying Mets, but I think the pitching is just
• 43:30
  Speaker 2: an advantage all across the board for San Diego, so
• 43:33
  Speaker 2: I worry about that, and I just I don't see
• 43:35
  Speaker 2: a reason why the situation for the Mets would be
• 43:38
  Speaker 2: so much more positive than just for San Diego other
• 43:41
  Speaker 2: than that, San Diego's having a travel cross country and
• 43:43
  Speaker 2: the Mets are the more desperate team. But desperation can
• 43:46
  Speaker 2: kind of put pressure on you as well, So I guess.
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: Do with that information what you will.
• 43:49
  Speaker 2: And the totals also drop from eight and a half
• 43:51
  Speaker 2: to eight, fifty four percent of tickets on the over
• 43:54
  Speaker 2: ninety eight percent of the cash on the under, so
• 43:55
  Speaker 2: some strong indicators on the under as well. I don't
• 43:58
  Speaker 2: know if I would trust homes enough to get us
• 44:00
  Speaker 2: to that under, though, Man, that seems a little bit
• 44:03
  Speaker 2: worrisome to me, to be honest. The bullpens are both rested,
• 44:06
  Speaker 2: so I would have less of an issue of playing
• 44:08
  Speaker 2: the under in the full game with those bullpens. But yeah,
• 44:11
  Speaker 2: I mean, those are my thoughts on that. Fernando, what's up?
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: Man?
• 44:15
  Speaker 2: First five under four and a half? We're talking about
• 44:18
  Speaker 2: that game right now, right four and a half? What's
• 44:20
  Speaker 2: the price on that? Is that juiced? Like? Do you
• 44:22
  Speaker 2: have to lay like more than minus one ten on that?
• 44:25
  Speaker 2: Because the total is down to eight and a half,
• 44:27
  Speaker 2: So four and a half seems like a pretty good
• 44:29
  Speaker 2: number on that. I mean, I guess I won't disagree
• 44:31
  Speaker 2: with it because the market is saying under on the
• 44:34
  Speaker 2: full game, which usually pretty much correlates to what is
• 44:37
  Speaker 2: gonna happen in the first five as well, unless there's
• 44:39
  Speaker 2: some real unless there's some real reason for that not
• 44:43
  Speaker 2: to be the case. I don't think that's the case here,
• 44:44
  Speaker 2: San Diego has the best bullpen in baseball eer ay,
• 44:48
  Speaker 2: So it's not like we're looking at this game and saying, oh,
• 44:50
  Speaker 2: you want to only go under in the first five,
• 44:52
  Speaker 2: but the bullpens suck or whatever, you know what I mean,
• 44:56
  Speaker 2: minus one twenty eight that's a bit of a high price.
• 44:59
  Speaker 2: I mean, if I was gonna go under here, personally,
• 45:01
  Speaker 2: I would do it in the full game because the
• 45:03
  Speaker 2: bullpens are rested and you get the advantage of San
• 45:06
  Speaker 2: Diego's bullpen, which is the top bullpen in baseball e
• 45:10
  Speaker 2: r A. Wise, you have to kind of dodge a
• 45:12
  Speaker 2: mediocre Mets bullpen, but they're rested bullpens. So I think
• 45:15
  Speaker 2: I would prefer to play it on the full game
• 45:17
  Speaker 2: under if that's what the price is, or first five
• 45:21
  Speaker 2: you could go under four.
• 45:22
  Speaker 1: I don't think there's that much of a difference between
• 45:24
  Speaker 1: the two.
• 45:25
  Speaker 2: Maybe it's a little bit more juicy, or it's a
• 45:29
  Speaker 2: little more juicy to take the four and half.
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: I mean, it's a little more risky. I meant to say,
• 45:33
  Speaker 1: I'm just looking at the word juice.
• 45:35
  Speaker 2: A little bit more risky maybe to go under the four,
• 45:37
  Speaker 2: though personally I just don't like to go under three
• 45:40
  Speaker 2: and a half in the first five. I will go
• 45:42
  Speaker 2: under four and four and a half on a fairly
• 45:45
  Speaker 2: regular basis, But those.
• 45:46
  Speaker 1: Are my feelings on it.
• 45:47
  Speaker 2: I would my personally, I would say full game under
• 45:50
  Speaker 2: on that one if I was gonna take the under
• 45:53
  Speaker 2: in it. But either way, I mean, I wouldn't disagree
• 45:55
  Speaker 2: again with the first five. I just think I would
• 45:57
  Speaker 2: prefer a better price on that number. So I guess,
• 46:01
  Speaker 2: do what that would you want? I thought your name
• 46:03
  Speaker 2: was gonna be a Ramiro Mendoza, by the way, because
• 46:06
  Speaker 2: I had my screen up my Firefox windows blocking the chat,
• 46:10
  Speaker 2: so I just saw, oh Mendoza, Like, Ramiro Mendoza's.
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: In my chat? What happened in that guy? Where is
• 46:16
  Speaker 1: he at now? On my enemy? By the way?
• 46:19
  Speaker 2: The Yankees, all right, Toronto at Tampa Bay Al East
• 46:26
  Speaker 2: matchup here Toronto, I mean they have a decent lead
• 46:29
  Speaker 2: in the division now, but they probably need to keep
• 46:31
  Speaker 2: winning because I mean the Yankees are still I would
• 46:34
  Speaker 2: say there's still a threat to win this division. I
• 46:36
  Speaker 2: don't really think the Red Sox are, unfortunately, but Toronto
• 46:39
  Speaker 2: does have a five game lead over the Yankees, six
• 46:41
  Speaker 2: games over the Red Sox now, Toronto's won five games
• 46:44
  Speaker 2: in a row. They do have momentum. They did win yesterday.
• 46:47
  Speaker 2: Toronto got a pretty good start from you, Savage. I
• 46:51
  Speaker 2: don't know how you pronounced his name. In his major
• 46:53
  Speaker 2: league debut. I think he gave up either one or
• 46:56
  Speaker 2: zero or in runs in that one. I think he
• 46:57
  Speaker 2: gave up one run in the first inning and then
• 46:59
  Speaker 2: he did not allow anything else. I think he went
• 47:02
  Speaker 2: five innings. Good major league debut from that guy.
• 47:04
  Speaker 1: I don't even know.
• 47:05
  Speaker 2: What Tampa Bay did yesterday as far as their start,
• 47:09
  Speaker 2: it looks like they did not really Maybe they did
• 47:11
  Speaker 2: go with a bullpen game. They used five relievers yesterday,
• 47:13
  Speaker 2: But Tampa does have the better bullpen over Toronto. Here
• 47:16
  Speaker 2: a little bit of usage though, but both bullpens actually
• 47:19
  Speaker 2: had some usage. Toronto's actually had a little bit more yesterday,
• 47:22
  Speaker 2: So Tampa does have a bullpen edge year.
• 47:24
  Speaker 1: Toronto. Their bullpen's been a roller coaster. Man.
• 47:27
  Speaker 2: They were good early in the season, then they had
• 47:29
  Speaker 2: a really bad stretch. Now it looks like their bullpen
• 47:32
  Speaker 2: is actually fairly good. Again, very very strange, but Tampa
• 47:35
  Speaker 2: does have the more consistent and better bullpen. Toronto has
• 47:38
  Speaker 2: the better offense, looking at this game, though, I mean,
• 47:43
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna lead towards an under in this game, even
• 47:46
  Speaker 2: though probably I would do it first five in this
• 47:49
  Speaker 2: one actually because both bullpens. I don't love the bullpen
• 47:52
  Speaker 2: usage here and I don't trust Toronto's bullpens still, so
• 47:54
  Speaker 2: I think under first five is the way I'm gonna
• 47:57
  Speaker 2: lead towards UH is the way I'm gonna lead in
• 47:58
  Speaker 2: this game. This was close to being a play for me.
• 48:00
  Speaker 2: I just worry about Tampa's stupid stadium they play in,
• 48:04
  Speaker 2: which is the Yankees spring training stadium, steinburn Field. It's
• 48:08
  Speaker 2: a very hitter friendly ballpark, but the pitching matchup in
• 48:11
  Speaker 2: the starting pitching does seem conducive to an under to me. Here,
• 48:15
  Speaker 2: Toronto as Jose Barrios on the mound three point nine
• 48:18
  Speaker 2: to nine ERA one point two to nine whip. That
• 48:20
  Speaker 2: whip is definitely too high. He is better on the
• 48:22
  Speaker 2: road though, for whatever reason, three point five to seven
• 48:25
  Speaker 2: roadyra which I think was the case last year too.
• 48:28
  Speaker 1: It might be the case throughout his career.
• 48:30
  Speaker 2: He hasn't been as good as of late though last
• 48:33
  Speaker 2: month four point six four ERA in four starts in August.
• 48:36
  Speaker 1: Eighteen to five strike a walk ratio.
• 48:38
  Speaker 2: Is good, but he was allowing too many runs, although
• 48:41
  Speaker 2: it was really kind of in one start against Texas,
• 48:43
  Speaker 2: but Texas is not a good lineup, and then the
• 48:47
  Speaker 2: two starts this month he hasn't been that great.
• 48:49
  Speaker 1: I think he missed a little bit of time. I
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: don't know if he had an injury or what.
• 48:52
  Speaker 2: But this month he is a four point nine to
• 48:54
  Speaker 2: one ERA six to three strike out walk ratio. He
• 48:57
  Speaker 2: only allowed two runs in each start, but he only
• 48:59
  Speaker 2: went two against Cincinnati, but he had a little bit
• 49:02
  Speaker 2: of a shortened start there. It was on the road
• 49:04
  Speaker 2: at a hitter friendly park. Maybe give him a pass
• 49:06
  Speaker 2: for that because he did pitch better last.
• 49:08
  Speaker 1: Time out against Houston.
• 49:09
  Speaker 2: Gave up two and runs and five and a third
• 49:11
  Speaker 2: and that one with four strikeouts one walk against Tampa.
• 49:15
  Speaker 2: He does have good numbers for the most part, an
• 49:18
  Speaker 2: eighty one career at bats, eighteen to seven strike a
• 49:21
  Speaker 2: walk ratio. Those still too many walks, but two thirty
• 49:24
  Speaker 2: five average allowed seven fifteen ohps is not really that high,
• 49:28
  Speaker 2: and it's I don't know. They have hit him for
• 49:29
  Speaker 2: a little bit of power, but I'm not as I'm
• 49:31
  Speaker 2: not too concerned about that. Even though I know it
• 49:33
  Speaker 2: is a power conducive ballpark. I think Barrios is all right,
• 49:38
  Speaker 2: but it gives me enough pause that I don't quite
• 49:40
  Speaker 2: want to give out the under here in for a play.
• 49:43
  Speaker 2: But that is the way I wouen leaning in this one.
• 49:45
  Speaker 2: Ryan Pepio is pitching for Tampa. Good season for him,
• 49:48
  Speaker 2: three point five ninety RA one point one to three whip.
• 49:51
  Speaker 2: He actually has his better split at home. For whatever reason,
• 49:55
  Speaker 2: he actually pitches better at home, even though he gives
• 49:57
  Speaker 2: up more home runs at home. Is the ray is
• 49:58
  Speaker 2: way better three point zero seventy r A at home,
• 50:01
  Speaker 2: so I think he puts fewer men on base. He
• 50:04
  Speaker 2: hasn't allowed to run in three straight outings. He's only
• 50:06
  Speaker 2: got five innings in each of them, and his pitch
• 50:09
  Speaker 2: count kind of got ratcheted up in the last two.
• 50:12
  Speaker 2: But that's pretty solid, man. He's only allowed two hits
• 50:15
  Speaker 2: over that span, over fifteen innes. He got pulled from
• 50:18
  Speaker 2: a no hitter last time out. He went five innings,
• 50:20
  Speaker 2: hadn't a lot of hit against Cleveland, And this is
• 50:23
  Speaker 2: the modern baseball man. They're like, yeah, you got a
• 50:25
  Speaker 2: no hitter, but you're up to ninety pitches yeah, you're
• 50:28
  Speaker 2: out of there. I mean, if you want, if they
• 50:30
  Speaker 2: wanted him to go for the no hitter in that game,
• 50:32
  Speaker 2: he probably would have been like up like one hundred
• 50:34
  Speaker 2: and thirty pitches in that game. But I'm still kind
• 50:37
  Speaker 2: of the opinion, like, let him go for it, man.
• 50:39
  Speaker 1: Until he loses it. But he's pitching.
• 50:42
  Speaker 2: Pretty well over those last three starts. The walk numbers
• 50:45
  Speaker 2: a little bit high, six walks over that span in
• 50:47
  Speaker 2: addition to seventeen strikeouts. That's not horrible. So he's in
• 50:51
  Speaker 2: pretty good form right now. He's better at home, like
• 50:54
  Speaker 2: I said, and he's pretty good against Toronto and forty
• 50:56
  Speaker 2: three at bats eight to three strikeout walk ratio two
• 50:59
  Speaker 2: nine batting average allowed, five to forty oh ps. And
• 51:02
  Speaker 2: it looks like Bobashett is probably done for the season.
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 51:06
  Speaker 2: He's not listed here because he's not active, so ESPN
• 51:09
  Speaker 2: takes care of that for you. But that's gonna hurt
• 51:12
  Speaker 2: Toronto a little bit offensively with one of their better
• 51:15
  Speaker 2: hitters out of the lineup. But they still have a
• 51:17
  Speaker 2: talented offense otherwise. But yeah, Pepio does have good numbers there.
• 51:22
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna lean under first five in this game. If
• 51:26
  Speaker 2: I can find where the hell it is on this dude.
• 51:29
  Speaker 2: Usually like there's a separate section for the interleague games,
• 51:32
  Speaker 2: and there isn't. Now it looks like the there's at
• 51:35
  Speaker 2: least one interleague game here, it's just listed in the
• 51:37
  Speaker 2: American League. I think pregame actually just fucked that up,
• 51:42
  Speaker 2: because I think the only interleague game is actually Anaheim
• 51:44
  Speaker 2: Milwaukee and it should be in its own section on
• 51:48
  Speaker 2: the board. It is listed at ninety one nine eighty two,
• 51:50
  Speaker 2: so it is the last on the board. But usually
• 51:52
  Speaker 2: pregame here will split that out into the interleague, but
• 51:55
  Speaker 2: they fucked it up and they didn't do it here.
• 51:58
  Speaker 2: Here's this one Toronto, by the way, flip from plus
• 52:01
  Speaker 2: one hundred to minus one away. So Toronto getting a
• 52:03
  Speaker 2: little bit of the money, even though they are public
• 52:05
  Speaker 2: as well. Eighty three percent of tickets, ninety six percent
• 52:07
  Speaker 2: of the cash. I'm a little bit surprised that Toronto's
• 52:10
  Speaker 2: getting the money here because usually the professional money does
• 52:12
  Speaker 2: come in towards Tampa Bay because they are actually better
• 52:16
  Speaker 2: than the record looks at the very least, and I
• 52:18
  Speaker 2: think they'll show up here because they lost yesterday. They
• 52:21
  Speaker 2: played tough yesterday and they do have a chance to
• 52:24
  Speaker 2: maybe spoil something for Toronto's season here. So, I mean,
• 52:27
  Speaker 2: it's the type of game that when you're out of it,
• 52:29
  Speaker 2: you're still gonna show up and play. In a game
• 52:31
  Speaker 2: like this, the money's coming in towards the under, down
• 52:34
  Speaker 2: from eight and a half to eight and a half.
• 52:35
  Speaker 2: Juice to the under. Seventy one percent of tickets, only
• 52:38
  Speaker 2: seventy percent of the cash on the under, So the
• 52:41
  Speaker 2: money is agreeing with me generally on the under. I said,
• 52:44
  Speaker 2: first five innings under, though, I'll try. I gotta try
• 52:47
  Speaker 2: to hurry this up. Man. We're almost in an hour here.
• 52:49
  Speaker 2: Got to get through a bunch of games here if
• 52:50
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna do the full slate, which.
• 52:52
  Speaker 1: I keep doing.
• 52:52
  Speaker 2: We only got two weeks left though, full baseball slates,
• 52:55
  Speaker 2: and I'm at Milwaukee. There you go, right on. Cue
• 52:58
  Speaker 2: the only interleague game these teams didn't play yesterday. Milwaukee
• 53:02
  Speaker 2: is also not traveling. They did lose their last game
• 53:04
  Speaker 2: against Saint Louis.
• 53:05
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee.
• 53:06
  Speaker 2: I think they're a little bit on cruise control right now, man.
• 53:09
  Speaker 2: I mean, but maybe they can't be, because the Cubs
• 53:11
  Speaker 2: are not that far behind them in the division. So
• 53:14
  Speaker 2: Milwaukee is not like sewed up the sewing up the
• 53:18
  Speaker 2: division yet, and they're sowing division.
• 53:22
  Speaker 1: They're like the government, and.
• 53:24
  Speaker 2: They also are they're battling with Philadelphia right now to
• 53:27
  Speaker 2: try to get home field throughout the playoffs too.
• 53:29
  Speaker 1: Man So Milwaukee, they.
• 53:30
  Speaker 2: Do have reasons to show up. Both bullpens will be
• 53:33
  Speaker 2: rested here. Anaheim's on a bad skid right now. They
• 53:36
  Speaker 2: just got swept by Seattle. They are having to now
• 53:38
  Speaker 2: travel that was at Seattle and now they're coming in
• 53:41
  Speaker 2: from Seattle, so it's a little bit of a bad
• 53:43
  Speaker 2: travel spot for them coming in from the Pacific coast.
• 53:46
  Speaker 2: Maybe it'll be good for them to get out of
• 53:47
  Speaker 2: Seattle though, to maybe refocus here. But who knows what
• 53:51
  Speaker 2: Anaheim's mindset is gonna because you know they're out of
• 53:54
  Speaker 2: an Anaheim. As I keep pointing out, they have the
• 53:56
  Speaker 2: worst run differential in the American League. So even though
• 53:59
  Speaker 2: they don't have the worst record in the American League,
• 54:01
  Speaker 2: run differential wise, they're the worst team in the American
• 54:04
  Speaker 2: League and Milwaukee run differential wise is the best team
• 54:07
  Speaker 2: in all of baseball. So huge disparity there, and I
• 54:12
  Speaker 2: think the disparity continues through this up pitching matchmar in Milwaukee,
• 54:15
  Speaker 2: by the way, I believe Wait, do they have the
• 54:18
  Speaker 2: better offense. I'm not even sure now maybe they don't.
• 54:21
  Speaker 2: Where are they at here? Yeah, they're number ten in ops,
• 54:26
  Speaker 2: so they have the better offense. Anaheims is mediocre. Anaims
• 54:29
  Speaker 2: has actually falling down to the bottom third. I mean,
• 54:31
  Speaker 2: they've had some guys with injuries recently, They've had a
• 54:34
  Speaker 2: dell with Vertigo.
• 54:35
  Speaker 1: I don't know what's going on with the Anaheims offense.
• 54:37
  Speaker 2: Man Milwaukee's got the better offense, Milwaukee's got the better bullpen.
• 54:41
  Speaker 2: Anaheims bullpen stinks, and the starting pitching looks like a
• 54:45
  Speaker 2: big mismatch towards Milwaukee as well, which is why you're
• 54:47
  Speaker 2: laying a huge price for Milwaukee. Anaeim is Caiden dana pitching.
• 54:52
  Speaker 1: I mean I don't.
• 54:54
  Speaker 2: I mean, he's got decent scouting on him. He's still
• 54:57
  Speaker 2: really young, so I mean, I think he does have
• 54:59
  Speaker 2: a high seial. He could at some point be good,
• 55:01
  Speaker 2: but I don't think his numbers are very good in
• 55:04
  Speaker 2: the minor leagues this year, and his numbers certainly have
• 55:06
  Speaker 2: not been good in the majors. Maybe they rushed him
• 55:08
  Speaker 2: up six point three two ERA one point six whip.
• 55:11
  Speaker 2: That's not good anaim. Seems like they don't have good
• 55:14
  Speaker 2: pitching coaching either. Even though his numbers have been really bad.
• 55:17
  Speaker 2: His ra on the road is actually one point eight,
• 55:20
  Speaker 2: which is ridiculous, but only has one road start.
• 55:23
  Speaker 1: It was against Kansas City.
• 55:24
  Speaker 2: They have a pitcher friendly ballpark and Kansas City is
• 55:27
  Speaker 2: a pretty weak offense. He did do well in that start,
• 55:29
  Speaker 2: but he hasn't done well in any of his other starts.
• 55:31
  Speaker 2: That's the only start where he went five innings last time,
• 55:34
  Speaker 2: when he walked five guys. He's walked four or more
• 55:37
  Speaker 2: and two of his last three outings. Not a good
• 55:40
  Speaker 2: sign for him. Man, he's been two wild. He's just
• 55:42
  Speaker 2: not really getting it done right now. Even though Milwaukee
• 55:45
  Speaker 2: hasn't seen him before. I don't expect him to do
• 55:46
  Speaker 2: particularly well here. Just recent form matters more than that.
• 55:50
  Speaker 2: He just hasn't done well Normally. I would say a
• 55:53
  Speaker 2: young talented pitcher, they have an unfamiliarity edge against the
• 55:56
  Speaker 2: opposing offense. In this case, I don't really think so,
• 55:58
  Speaker 2: because it hasn't really been the case for him so far.
• 56:01
  Speaker 2: He's going up against Freddy Peralta, who is still Milwaukee's ace.
• 56:05
  Speaker 2: He's having a really good season two point six ninety
• 56:08
  Speaker 2: ra one point zero nine whip. He's really good at
• 56:11
  Speaker 2: home one point seven to two home. He ra he fucked
• 56:14
  Speaker 2: me in the not physically, not literally.
• 56:17
  Speaker 1: I'm not gay. Maybe I don't know if he's gay.
• 56:20
  Speaker 2: He did bad in his last start against the Texas
• 56:23
  Speaker 2: or I had the under in that game, and Peralta
• 56:26
  Speaker 2: totally screwed us with that under.
• 56:28
  Speaker 1: I even he had nine strikeouts. He didn't even do
• 56:30
  Speaker 1: that badly.
• 56:31
  Speaker 2: Really, he went five innings, nine strikeouts, two walks, and
• 56:34
  Speaker 2: that's not awful. But he threw a ton of pitches
• 56:36
  Speaker 2: one hundred and thirteen, gave up five and runs. That's
• 56:40
  Speaker 2: not great. That was the most pitches he threw all season,
• 56:43
  Speaker 2: I think. So that's a little bit worrisome that he
• 56:45
  Speaker 2: threw that many pitches, But I mean, he is a
• 56:47
  Speaker 2: veteran pitcher, so I'm a little bit less concerned by
• 56:50
  Speaker 2: that because I'm sure he's done that before in his career.
• 56:54
  Speaker 2: Prior to that start, he hadn't allow to run in
• 56:56
  Speaker 2: five strade starts, so he was completely on fire. He
• 56:59
  Speaker 2: allowed one run in the entire month of August and
• 57:03
  Speaker 2: then up through a shutout against Philly to start September.
• 57:06
  Speaker 2: So I'm kind of of the opinion of that last
• 57:10
  Speaker 2: start was an outlier, and I think that he should
• 57:13
  Speaker 2: bounce back here against Anaheim. He has really good numbers
• 57:17
  Speaker 2: against Anaheim. It's only thirty two career bats, so it's
• 57:19
  Speaker 2: not a huge sample size, but no extra base hits,
• 57:22
  Speaker 2: thirteen strikeouts, three walks, one eighty eight average love four
• 57:26
  Speaker 2: to forty five ohps. So he does dominate them. Uh,
• 57:29
  Speaker 2: you're gonna pay it like a huge price if you
• 57:31
  Speaker 2: want in Milwaukee. Know the Milwaukee does have the edge
• 57:33
  Speaker 2: across the board here. They're up for minus two forty
• 57:36
  Speaker 2: minus two forty seven. I don't really see percentages on
• 57:40
  Speaker 2: the on the side yet really to give us any
• 57:42
  Speaker 2: information there the total. It looks like the juice crept
• 57:46
  Speaker 2: up on the over eight, but we see eighty six
• 57:48
  Speaker 2: percent of tickets and only fifty six percent of the
• 57:51
  Speaker 2: cash on the over. There is no way I would
• 57:53
  Speaker 2: touch an under with dana and Anaheim's bullpen in that game.
• 57:56
  Speaker 1: Absolutely no way. It's just impossible. You can't do that.
• 58:02
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee doesn't hit as well at home though, so I mean,
• 58:04
  Speaker 1: and there is.
• 58:05
  Speaker 2: That unfamiliarity aspect still there. So I think the way
• 58:08
  Speaker 2: that I would actually probably do this is I would
• 58:10
  Speaker 2: probably go Anaheim under their team total maybe something like that.
• 58:14
  Speaker 2: Although Milwaukee's both been as some injuries to mcguil, I
• 58:17
  Speaker 2: think is still out so you don't have to worry
• 58:19
  Speaker 2: about that. So if you could go as granular as
• 58:22
  Speaker 2: just focusing on Peralta and take Anaheim under their team
• 58:26
  Speaker 2: total in the first five innings, maybe you could do that.
• 58:28
  Speaker 2: Or if you can find a prop on Peralta earn
• 58:31
  Speaker 2: runs allowed and go under on that.
• 58:33
  Speaker 1: I know there's not.
• 58:34
  Speaker 2: Gonna be a whole lot of leeway there, Like it's
• 58:36
  Speaker 2: probably basically gonna be like if he allows two runs,
• 58:40
  Speaker 2: your BET's gonna die. But I mean that might be
• 58:43
  Speaker 2: the way to do it in this game. I don't
• 58:44
  Speaker 2: see a whole a whole lot of other way to
• 58:47
  Speaker 2: play it. You're a Brewers fan, Uh yeah, Fernando, so
• 58:51
  Speaker 2: you want to wait, you want the Brewers on the
• 58:53
  Speaker 2: run line minus two and a half.
• 58:56
  Speaker 1: I don't love it, man, to be honest.
• 58:57
  Speaker 2: I mean, it could happen for sure, but I mean
• 59:01
  Speaker 2: with the teams have had a day off, so you're
• 59:02
  Speaker 2: dealing with rested boatpends. At least the offense could go
• 59:05
  Speaker 2: a little bit cold when that happens, and Milwaukee doesn't
• 59:08
  Speaker 2: hit as well at home as they do on the road,
• 59:10
  Speaker 2: even though there's still a good offense, and if they're winning,
• 59:13
  Speaker 2: they don't get to bat in the ninth inning. So
• 59:15
  Speaker 2: I mean, I point that out when I do minus
• 59:18
  Speaker 2: one and a half run lines, that that's a concern
• 59:20
  Speaker 2: that you don't get the bat you don't get the
• 59:22
  Speaker 2: bats in the ninth inning potentially, but that's even more
• 59:24
  Speaker 2: of a concern when you're laying even more of a
• 59:26
  Speaker 2: run line. I personally wouldn't do it, even though it
• 59:31
  Speaker 2: may happen. I think I would either go I mean
• 59:34
  Speaker 2: you could go over Milwaukee's team total as well, just
• 59:37
  Speaker 2: expecting them to hit this bad pitching of Anaheim. But
• 59:40
  Speaker 2: I still think I prefer just perraulta a shutdown Anaheim's offense.
• 59:43
  Speaker 2: But it's a game that's really tricky to actually put
• 59:45
  Speaker 2: your money on, to be honest, Baltimore at the White Sox,
• 59:50
  Speaker 2: as I said about yesterday, where my first five on
• 59:54
  Speaker 2: Baltimore was a loser, fucking Baltimore, Baltimore, and then they
• 59:59
  Speaker 2: want to the game and covering the run line in
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 2: the later portions of the game, So that was just
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 2: excellent Baltimore. They do win most of their games recently
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 2: against the White Sox. I mean, the White Sox have
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 2: been terrible, so that's not really a surprise. And the
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 2: Orioles are winning a lot of close games over the
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 2: last couple of years, and they were kind of overperforming
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 2: a little bit. But Baltimore does still have They've had
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 2: Chicago's number pretty much. But Baltimore did win yesterday four
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 2: to one. Baltimore still has a bullpen disadvantage in my
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 2: opinion here. Even though the onlys two relief pitchures yesterday,
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 2: their bullpen isn't good. They don't have that many bullpen arms.
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 2: White Sox did use four relief pittures here. I'm about
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 2: to get arrested, guys that hear cops outside now. I
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 2: don't know what's going on out there. Maybe I have
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 2: to look at my cameras real quick. I don't know
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 2: what's going on out there. I'm I'm on a street,
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 2: so it's like I'm out in the middle of nowhere here.
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 1: But let me see here. I'm not really seeing anything
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 1: on my front camera yet.
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 2: Anyway, the White Sox did use more of the bullpen yesterday,
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 2: so I guess you could argue that might balance out
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 2: the bullpen's a little bit. I mean, the White Sox
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 2: bullpen is kind of mediocre. Baltimore's is pretty bad. Though
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 2: Baltimore is the better of the two offenses. The White
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 2: Sox offense is not good as far as the starting pitching.
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 2: Dean Kreamer pitching for Baltimore. If you watch my show,
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 2: you know I'm not really much of a fan of his.
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 2: I don't think he's that good this season. Mediocre stuff.
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 2: Four point four to three ERA, one point two to
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 2: six whip, I mean, not horrible and not good either.
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 2: He's bad on the road though, five point five to
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 2: three road ra He was pretty bad in his last
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 2: two starts in August. He looked like he completely fell apart.
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 2: He gave up thirteen in runs in eight innings against
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 2: Houston and at San Francisco. That's not a good sign.
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 2: San Francisco not a good offense. That is a pitcher
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 2: friendly park. That's not good. He bounced back in a
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 2: way with three shutout innings against the Dodgers, but the fact.
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 1: That they only let him go three three innings.
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 2: I don't know what the deal was with that, and
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 2: now it looks like his start has been pushed back,
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 2: so maybe he got injured or something in that start.
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 2: I'm not really sure, because he actually no hit the
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 2: Dodgers through three innings, so I think they would have
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 2: left him in. I mean, he's still a veteran pitcher,
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 2: even though it looks like they his pitch count has
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 2: gone down a little bit, but I think it was
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 2: because he was getting shelled in those other two starts.
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 1: So I don't really know.
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 2: H It looks like to me he got injured in
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 2: that Dodgers start and that's why he got pulled and
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 2: why his star has been pushed back, which might affect
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 2: him though, scheduling wise, pitchers like to stay on schedule,
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 2: so I don't know. Having to pitch off schedule might
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 2: hurt him a little bit. His numbers are fine against
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 2: the White Sox, and thirty three at bats, ten strikeouts,
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 2: four walks isn't that terrific, But two twelve batting average
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 2: allowed seven to twenty two ops is higher than you
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 2: think with that batting average because he has allowed two
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 2: of them runs to Sosa and telkman, but still not
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 2: that bad. Nate, what's up man? Yeah, Dean kreamer. Some
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 2: people pronounce a creamer.
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 2: I think it's creamer, though I'm not really sure the
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 2: dairy dairy creamer, a dairy creamer. We're talking about talking
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 2: about the milk that's gonna make me cream By the way,
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 2: that's that's my fetish there. This this show is going
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 2: off the rails very very quickly. Shane Smith is pitching
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 2: for the White Sox here. He's a guy from Danvers,
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 2: mass So he's he's my homeboy.
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 1: I don't know him personally though.
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 2: Three point seven eighty r A one point one eight
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 2: whip pretty good numbers for his rookie season.
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 1: Man, he was.
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 2: Good, as I pointed out, last few times he started,
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 2: he's been He was good at the beginning of the year,
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 2: hit a stretcher, he wasn't that good in the middle
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 2: of the season, and he's been good again recently. He
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 2: has a good ra at home two point nine to eight. Again,
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 2: like I said, he's been good recently. He's a lot
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 2: more than touring runs only once in his last four starts,
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 2: only twice going all the way back through the beginning
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 2: of August. So I think because he was named to
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 2: the All Star team. I think that kind of threw
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 2: him off a little bit. He actually pitched in the
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 2: All Star Game.
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 1: He came in and got one.
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 2: Guy out in the All Star Game. He's been good though,
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 2: Like I said, the last couple of months. He's been
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 2: pretty good this month. Three point three eighty RRA in
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 2: this two starts ten to three, strike a walk raceio.
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 2: I got wins in both of them, went five innings
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 2: or more in both of them. Had to shut out
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 2: against Tampa last time. But he did give up four
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 2: and runs at Detroit, but that's not an easy place
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 2: to pitch, and he still got the win. And Baltimore
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 2: has still never faced him before. So Smith does have
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 2: an edge there with the fact that Baltimore has never
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 2: seen him before. So I'm gonna slightly lean to the
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 2: White Sox. And this one of the money is disagreeing
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 2: with me. I mean, both of these teams are just
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 2: playing out the stretch. There isn't a whole lot to
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 2: play for for these teams. White Sox down for minus
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 2: one thirty five to minus one oh five, Maybe not
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 2: a great side there. The money lines moving against them
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 2: seventy eight percent of tickets ninety or eighty now on
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 2: the Baltimore's side, but ninety nine percent of the cash.
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 2: I don't think that cash is accurate though, So Baltimore
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 2: does look like at least the public side here total
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 2: is maybe Dean Kreamer actually.
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 1: Wasn't scheduled to start.
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 2: So that's one thing you have to keep in mind
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 2: when you look at this these market, these money line moves.
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 2: It's like, did that move happened because the books had
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 2: to just adjust the number because of a pitching change,
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 2: or was that actually just movement because of the market,
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 2: you know what I mean.
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 1: So there's a difference between the two.
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 2: So it's possible that Baltimore was gonna skip ding Creamer again,
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 2: that they had like some other pitcher, and that Creamer
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 2: was actually a preferred option as far as the odds
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 2: makers are concerned.
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 1: So maybe that's part of the reason. I'm not so sure.
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 2: Total sitting at eight juice to the under. Don't see
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 2: any percentages on the total yet, so I don't know
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 2: about that, but I would personally lean to the White Sox.
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 2: I mean, if you want to keep their bullpen out
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 2: of it because they used a decent amount of it yesterday.
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 2: You could go White Sox first five. I mean, I
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 2: prefer Smith, being especially being unfamiliar to Baltimore. I prefer
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 2: him over creamer. I prefer that in general though anyway,
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 2: So I'm gonna take my coffee Smith rather than rather
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 2: rather than any creamer. That would work better if Smith
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 2: was black. Yankees at Minnesota. Minnesota got the win yesterday.
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 2: I told you I did have a light opinion on
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 2: Minnesota on the run line. Yes so I didn't expect
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 2: them to win seven and nothing, but I laugh. I
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 2: like it as a hater of the Yankees.
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 1: Yankees were in a bad spot.
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 2: They were coming off that series against the Red Sox
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 2: and the ESPN Sunday night game, having a short turnaround
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 2: time to have to deal with that and have to
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 2: travel to Minnesota. So it wasn't a good spot for
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 2: the Yankees. They got pretty embarrassed. I mean, Minnesota, they
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 2: do have reason to show up in the series because
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 2: it is the Yankees coming into their place, But the
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 2: Yankees obviously are fighting for playoff positioning here, so they
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 2: do have motivation. They need to win both of these
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 2: bullpens Sock although the Yankees bullpen is actually less bad
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 2: than Minnesota's. They didn't use a ton yesterday and Minnesota
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 2: a little bit more you suggest today, I think, yeah,
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 2: same amount of pitchers Minnesota use a little bit more.
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 2: So Yankees do get the bullpen ed year. They have
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 2: a huge offensive edge. Minnesota not a very good offense,
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 2: and the fact that the Yankees offend me more than
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 2: Minnesota does that makes them more offensive as well.
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 1: The Yankees should have a starting pitching edge year.
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 2: With Cam Schlittler on the mound, Yankee is definitely hiling him.
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 1: He's a trader.
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 2: He's also from a mass He's from Walpole, Mass and
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 2: he's a member of the Yankees.
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 1: Come on, guy, uh.
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 2: Pretty good season for him for rookie season, even though
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 2: he's walked too many guys, I believe. But he has
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 2: a three point zero five ERA, which is good. One
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 2: point three to two whip is too high. He's been
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 2: better on the road one point nine to nine ROADIRA,
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 2: and overall he is pitching well. He had one really
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 2: bad start, two starts to go against Toronto, didn't even
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 2: make it through the second inning, so that wasn't good.
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 2: But he had I mean he had an a lumber
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 2: of the two eur in runs prior to that, going
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 2: all the way back to a start in July. Uh
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 2: so he got into a groove and he was really
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 2: like pitching well for a while. He's still pitching well.
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 2: He came back, he bounced back and had a one
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 2: uh one earned run six to any performance with seven
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 2: strikeouts against Detroit with two walks. So his walk numbers
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 2: again are a little bit too high multiple in most
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 2: of his recent starts.
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 1: That's a little bit of a concern.
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 2: But he's not allowing a lot of hits for the
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 2: most part, certainly not allowing a lot of runs. So
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 2: I think that Toronto Star was a bit of an outlier.
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 2: He is pitching better here in Minnesota. They're not a
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 2: good line up, although they are familiar with him now.
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 2: So this will be his second time facing Minnesota, so
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 2: first time. You know. I talk about how the rookie
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 2: pitcher has an unfamiliarity edge, and he went five innings
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 2: against them in Yankee Stadium the first time he faced them,
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 2: gave up one on run, six.
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 1: Strikeouts, two walks. Pretty good start for him.
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 2: But as I point out that win, an offense now
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 2: has seen the guy once, it tends to be less
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 2: of an advantage of the pitcher in the next time
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 2: out because the offense knows what he's gonna throw at them.
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 2: This time, they've seen him in an actual game, so
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 2: Minnesota might be a little bit better this time out.
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 2: They only their current lineup only went one for fourteen
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 2: off of Schlitzler in that outing, though they only had
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 2: one extra base hit at bust in double five strikeouts,
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 2: one walk, so he did pretty much shut them completely
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 2: down seventy one adding average in two seventy six ops.
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 2: So I'm not really expecting Schlitzler to actually do poorly here.
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 2: I still think he'll pitch well here. He's going up
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 2: against Zebbie Matthews, another young pitcher who I think he
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 2: does have some pretty good stuff, like strikeout stuff. But
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 2: I think maybe he got rushed a little bit. I
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 2: think he was dealing with some injuries because he is
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 2: not that young, he's twenty five, but I think his
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 2: career kind of got like derailed a little bit due
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 2: to some injuries.
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 1: I think he is better than his numbers.
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 2: Look though, five point zero six ERA and one point
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 2: four to six WHIP not good numbers. Obviously he is
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 2: better at home, though three point five six home the
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 2: IRA wasn't good in his last outing, which was of
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 2: course on the road, give up five and runs to
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 2: Anaheim A four and two thirds not good, five strikeouts,
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 2: two walks. But in his previous start, he held the
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 2: White Sox to one and run in six innings at
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 2: home in this park five to two strike out walk ratio,
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 2: so his last couple of.
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 1: Home starts have been good.
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 2: Again, he is definitely better at home than he is
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 2: on the road, but he's facing a Yankee lineup that
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 2: is pretty solid. He did face the Yankees in that
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 2: same series in August and went five to two thirds,
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 2: give up three on runs, all in solo home runs,
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 2: though on nine strikeouts one walk, so he actually did
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 2: have command in that start. He struck out a lot
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 2: of guys in that start, so it wasn't all bad.
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 2: So maybe Matthews won't be that bad in this game.
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 2: But it doesn't mean the Yankees have faced him before,
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 2: although I think maybe they faced him prior to that
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 2: as well. I'm not sure they have twenty six at
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 2: bats against some ten to two strikeout walk ratio, so
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 2: good strikeout of walk ratio there but a three to
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 2: zero eight average oney twenty six ops.
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 1: And I mean some of that is the home runs.
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 2: He's allowed four home runs to them, which is way
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 2: too many home runs, but three of them were in
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 2: that one outing, so I mean, I take that with
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 2: a little bit of a grain of salt.
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 1: It's not a huge sample. The money is fading the Yankees.
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 2: They're very public road favorite here. They're down from minus
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 2: one to sixty five to minus one to forty nine.
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 2: I mean, I think part of that is the professional
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 2: betters know that you're all almost always paying too much
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 2: of a price for the Yankees, eighty eight percent of tickets,
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 2: only fifty five percent the cash on the Yankees. I
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 2: don't think it's necessarily saying that they think the Yankees
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 2: are gonna lose this game. I think it's more that
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 2: they think that the Yankees are is overvalued. With that number,
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 2: the total went up a little bit from ni Juice
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 2: to the under to nine. I'm not sure about that.
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 2: I mean, even though both pitchers did just see these
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 2: opposing offenses not that long ago, I could see both
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 2: pitchers being decently successfully here. So I mean I would
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 2: kind of tend to actually want to lean to an
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 2: under in the first five innings in this one, But
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 2: I mean, I'm not gonna do it, not gonna give
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 2: it out as a play Yankees. I mean I would
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 2: I would slightly lean to the Yankees too, because they
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 2: have more motivation here. They got embarrassed yesterday, They have
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 2: more to play for. But the market read is certainly
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 2: against them. So definitely something to keep in mind there.
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 2: But I do think they have the pitching edge in
• 1:11:47
  Speaker 2: every aspect of the game, which you don't usually say
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 2: about the Yankees. Seattle at Kansas City, try to get
• 1:11:53
  Speaker 2: this done here. Man, on the surface, this looks like
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 2: it might be a decent pitching matchup here, but I
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 2: have has as about that. Kansas City is returning over
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 2: from a road trip. They went to Cleveland and in
• 1:12:04
  Speaker 2: Philadelphia they won the last game against Philly. Like Kansas City,
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 2: I think they're kind of probably resigned to the fact
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 2: that they know they're out of it at this point,
• 1:12:12
  Speaker 2: although maybe they'll show up because they get to face
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 2: a good opponent here in Seattle.
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 1: Both teams had yesterday off.
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 2: Kansas City is returning over from a road trip, and
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 2: you know, I talk about how teams are returning from
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 2: road trips, especially if they're not a very good team,
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 2: and especially if they're an underdog, which they are, they
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 2: tend to not do well in that first game back,
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 2: especially with a day off. There are some statistics about
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 2: that out there. It's historically not a good spot so
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 2: and they tend to get a little bit distracted. Seattle
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 2: is coming in from home, so they're starting a road trip.
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 2: They have a ton of momentum. Obviously, they won nine
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 2: straight games, I think is what that is, so they
• 1:12:48
  Speaker 2: have a ton of momentum. They're ahead of Houston and
• 1:12:50
  Speaker 2: the AL West. They're still needing to win because they
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 2: need to hang on to that lead and at least
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 2: get themselves a wildcard spot here. Seattle isn't quite as
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 2: good on the road though they're pitcher said to all
• 1:13:00
  Speaker 2: do worse on the road, but at least for Seattle,
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 2: this is a pitcher friendly ballpark here, so that might
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 2: make it a little bit less bad for their pitchers
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 2: that all pitch better in their stadium, which is also
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 2: pitcher friendly. And again it is a decent spot for
• 1:13:13
  Speaker 2: them because they have momentum. So it is the type
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 2: of spot where I would be leaning towards Seattle because
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 2: of the situation.
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 1: Both teams have pretty good bullpens.
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 2: I think Seattle has the slightly lesser of the two bullpens.
• 1:13:25
  Speaker 2: Seattle has a way better offense though, Yeah, the bullpens
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 2: are both in the top seven. Kansas City is slightly
• 1:13:31
  Speaker 2: better on the season, but Seattle has a way better offense.
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 2: Although we're Seattle at They're actually only twelve offensively right now,
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 2: so not as good as I thought. Kansas City is
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 2: a bottom third offense though, pretty bad, so all things
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 2: to consider here.
• 1:13:45
  Speaker 1: Logan Gilbert is pitching for Seattle.
• 1:13:47
  Speaker 2: Good season for him, three point four three point five
• 1:13:50
  Speaker 2: four ERA, one point zero three WHIP. He is way
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 2: worse on the road though, like I said, five point
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 2: two nine road ERA, but because this is a pitcher
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 2: friendly park, maybe he won't be that bad. One point
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 2: six ninety RA this month, fifteen to two strike out
• 1:14:03
  Speaker 2: walk ratio, though he didn't make it five innings last
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 2: time out, he threw ninety five pitches against Saint Louis.
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 2: Don't know why they didn't let him finish the inning though,
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 2: because he was in the fifth inning, you think they
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 2: would have let him finish it.
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 1: He didn't do that bad.
• 1:14:15
  Speaker 2: He had eight strikeouts, one walk, allowed only one on run.
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 2: He is a fifteen to two strikeout walk ratio this month.
• 1:14:21
  Speaker 1: Like I said, he's.
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 2: Allowed two or fewer on runs and all but one
• 1:14:25
  Speaker 2: start going all the way through the beginning of August.
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 2: So he's pitching well right now. Gilbert against Kansas City,
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 2: I'm assuming he has good numbers against them, because they're
• 1:14:35
  Speaker 2: not a good offense. I looked earlier. The numbers are
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 2: actually not as good as you would think. Good batting
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 2: average allowed against them, but a not a good OPS.
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 2: So they've they haven't hit it for contact, but they've
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 2: hit him for power. Eighty one career at bats, nineteen
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 2: to eleven, strikeout walk ratio, two thirty five average allowed
• 1:14:52
  Speaker 2: seven sixty OPS.
• 1:14:53
  Speaker 1: So that OPS is.
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 2: A little bit high because he's allowed five home runs
• 1:14:57
  Speaker 2: to them. So maybe a little bit of hesitation on
• 1:14:59
  Speaker 2: Gilbert again because he's still not that good at home.
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 2: Kansas City has at least hit him for some power.
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 2: Kansas City has Michael Waka on the mound. He's been
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 2: good this year three point four or five ERA one
• 1:15:10
  Speaker 2: point one a whip. He is good at home as well.
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 2: Two point nine two ERA, so he's got the splits
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 2: working in his favor. But I hesitate with Waka because
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 2: he actually got a concussion in the last game, So
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 2: I don't know, like did he get hit by like
• 1:15:25
  Speaker 2: a line drive or something like.
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 1: I don't know how that would happen.
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 2: Otherwise, I mean, that's pretty scary if that happened. You'd
• 1:15:31
  Speaker 2: think I would have heard about it if that happened,
• 1:15:32
  Speaker 2: but I don't know. So he was on the seven
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 2: day injured list and now he's coming back, so he's
• 1:15:37
  Speaker 2: making a delayed start coming off of what I think
• 1:15:40
  Speaker 2: might have been a scary moment, which would have been
• 1:15:43
  Speaker 2: a guest in that game against Minnesota last time out.
• 1:15:45
  Speaker 2: So that worries me about Waka Man. Then now he's
• 1:15:47
  Speaker 2: not pitching on schedule. So these pictures the creatures.
• 1:15:50
  Speaker 1: Of habit man.
• 1:15:51
  Speaker 2: So when something like that happens and they get slightly
• 1:15:53
  Speaker 2: thrown off schedule, sometimes it's not a great thing. Although
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 2: Waka was pitching well, he allowed three or four earned
• 1:15:59
  Speaker 2: run at every outing except one, which was the second
• 1:16:03
  Speaker 2: start in a row against Detroit, so kind of a
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 2: difficult assignment. Going all the way back to the beginning
• 1:16:07
  Speaker 2: of July, basically, so Waka was pitching pretty well over
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 2: that span overall, Like I said, good season for him
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 2: against Seattle.
• 1:16:18
  Speaker 1: Let me see here.
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 2: His numbers are bad against Seattle, though they have a
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 2: lot of history against them. One hundred and forty three
• 1:16:23
  Speaker 2: at bats, thirty two to nine strike a walk ratio
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 2: is not bad for him, but three to zero one
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 2: batting average at eight eighty five ops allowed. They got
• 1:16:30
  Speaker 2: nine home runs off in three from a Rose Arena,
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 2: even though his batting average isn't that good against him,
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 2: and two home runs from Suarez, who does have a
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 2: good batting average against who was one of the guys
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 2: they picked up from Arizona at the trade deadline. I
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 2: believe so this game, man, I mean, I worry about
• 1:16:47
  Speaker 2: both pitchers actually in this game. So even though on
• 1:16:49
  Speaker 2: the surface it looks like an under, I think I
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 2: would actually lean towards an over, and I leaned towards
• 1:16:55
  Speaker 2: Seattle in this one. Money is coming into Seattle. They're
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 2: not a huge, huge price, although they are still a
• 1:17:01
  Speaker 2: road favorite, and they I mean, they're the team that's
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 2: gonna get the public action because they have the better
• 1:17:07
  Speaker 2: record sixty one percent of tickets but ninety three percent
• 1:17:09
  Speaker 2: of the cash and then they're down for minus one
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 2: thirty five to minus one thirty three on the money line,
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 2: and the total is just sitting at eight eighty nine
• 1:17:16
  Speaker 2: percent of tickets nine to nine percent of the cash
• 1:17:18
  Speaker 2: on the over.
• 1:17:18
  Speaker 1: I don't know if that percentage is accurate at all.
• 1:17:21
  Speaker 2: Not a whole lot going on in the total, but
• 1:17:22
  Speaker 2: I agree with the cash percentage on Seattle just because
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 2: of the situation. But as far as the pitching, like
• 1:17:28
  Speaker 2: on the surface, again it looks like an under, but
• 1:17:30
  Speaker 2: I kind of disagree with that. I would maybe go
• 1:17:32
  Speaker 2: towards an over here. But both bullpens are good and rested,
• 1:17:35
  Speaker 2: so that kind of lends itself more towards an under
• 1:17:40
  Speaker 2: type of game. But if both starters don't do well,
• 1:17:42
  Speaker 2: or at least one of them doesn't, in the bullpens
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 2: have to kind of get in early and you get
• 1:17:46
  Speaker 2: some of the lesser relievers in the game. That kind
• 1:17:48
  Speaker 2: of helps it out towards an over again. So again,
• 1:17:52
  Speaker 2: as I always say, do with this information what you will.
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 2: Cincinnati at Saint Louis. We got Cincinnati right yesterday. Saint
• 1:17:58
  Speaker 2: Louis was returning over from a road and sometimes when
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 2: a team returns home from a road trip and they
• 1:18:02
  Speaker 2: don't do well. They bounce back and they do better
• 1:18:05
  Speaker 2: the next time. Because they're a little bit unfocused in
• 1:18:07
  Speaker 2: that first game, they do better the next game.
• 1:18:09
  Speaker 1: This game was closer than it appeared.
• 1:18:11
  Speaker 2: Though as the final As I said, it was a
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 2: six to six game late in the game, although Cincinnati
• 1:18:16
  Speaker 2: had blown a lead in the game prior to that,
• 1:18:18
  Speaker 2: so we did get the game right on Cincinnati yesterday.
• 1:18:21
  Speaker 2: Saint Louis overall does have the better bullpen, but the
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 2: reason I faded them, part of the reason I faded
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 2: them yesterday was the bullpen usage was too high, and
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 2: that's the case with both teams here. Really, the bullpen
• 1:18:31
  Speaker 2: usage is too high on both sides. Saint Louis has
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 2: the better bullpen of the two. Cincinnati has the better
• 1:18:36
  Speaker 2: offense of the two. Cincinnati does have the better pitcher
• 1:18:39
  Speaker 2: on the mound here with Andrew Abbott. Good season for him,
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 2: although maybe overperforming a little bit two point seven to
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 2: ninety RA, one point one to three WHIP. He's been
• 1:18:49
  Speaker 2: a little bit worse on the road three point one
• 1:18:51
  Speaker 2: four ERA. He pitches better in that hitter at Friendly
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 2: Park in Cincinnati for whatever reason, The one real concern
• 1:18:56
  Speaker 2: with Abbot is is he wearing down? Because this is
• 1:18:59
  Speaker 2: the most inning pitch that he's ever thrown in his career.
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 2: He's young, and it seems like it is affecting him
• 1:19:04
  Speaker 2: a little bit. As you can see, he kind of
• 1:19:07
  Speaker 2: tailed off a little bit with a four point four
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 2: or five ERA last month, although twenty nine to six
• 1:19:11
  Speaker 2: strike a walk ratio is still good this month is
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 2: the Ray's four point two six and two starts not great.
• 1:19:17
  Speaker 2: Eleven to three strike a walk ratio is still alright,
• 1:19:19
  Speaker 2: though he allowed five and runs in fewer than five
• 1:19:23
  Speaker 2: innings against the Mets. Not a great start, but a
• 1:19:25
  Speaker 2: streke out walk ratio is still gonna He bounced back
• 1:19:28
  Speaker 2: though at San Diego with eight innings pitch and one
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 2: in and run aloud, so maybe he's not totally worn
• 1:19:33
  Speaker 2: down yet, although that is a pitcher friendly park.
• 1:19:37
  Speaker 1: But he is up against Saint Louis. They don't have
• 1:19:39
  Speaker 1: a very good offense.
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 2: He's been good against them in the past one hundred
• 1:19:42
  Speaker 2: two at bats, pretty big sample. Twenty one to thirteen
• 1:19:45
  Speaker 2: strike a walk ratio is not good though, too many walks,
• 1:19:48
  Speaker 2: but they haven't hit him well. Two thirty five batting
• 1:19:50
  Speaker 2: our six ninety four ohps allowed, So it is possible
• 1:19:54
  Speaker 2: Abbott does pitch well here in Cincinnati does keep needing
• 1:19:57
  Speaker 2: to win because they're still in the wildcard race. I mean,
• 1:20:00
  Speaker 2: the Mets have been so bad that Cincinnati is still
• 1:20:02
  Speaker 2: alive in the wildcard race.
• 1:20:04
  Speaker 1: Saint Louis.
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 2: Really what they have to play for is bouncing back
• 1:20:07
  Speaker 2: from yesterday and the fact that they're playing a divisional foe.
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 2: They got Michael McGreevy on the mountain. He's been okay
• 1:20:13
  Speaker 2: this year. I think this is his rookie season. Four
• 1:20:16
  Speaker 2: point four to four ERA, one point two to three whip,
• 1:20:18
  Speaker 2: okay numbers, not really a great strikeout guy or anything.
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 1: He's been really bad at home for whatever reason. Huge
• 1:20:24
  Speaker 1: home road splits.
• 1:20:25
  Speaker 2: I know it's not a huge sample size, but six
• 1:20:28
  Speaker 2: point oh seven home ERA that's pretty bad. Hasn't really
• 1:20:32
  Speaker 2: been great this month, although it's really it's only two starts.
• 1:20:34
  Speaker 2: Six point three ERA seven to one strike out walk
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 2: ratio is good. He hasn't really walked anybody, but getting
• 1:20:40
  Speaker 2: blasted at home by San Francisco for six earned runs
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 2: is not a great sign.
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 1: He's kind of been alternating good and bad starts.
• 1:20:47
  Speaker 2: And he did pitch well last time out, holding Seattle
• 1:20:49
  Speaker 2: to one ear and run at that pitcher friendly Seattle
• 1:20:52
  Speaker 2: Ballpark in six innings, four strikeouts, no walks in that one,
• 1:20:55
  Speaker 2: so he's not totally out of form right now. His
• 1:20:58
  Speaker 2: numbers are good against Cincinnati in twenty three at bats
• 1:21:01
  Speaker 2: of those zero strikeouts, two walks to seventeen batting hours
• 1:21:05
  Speaker 2: five eighty four a ps. So it is possible McGreevy
• 1:21:09
  Speaker 2: does okay in this one. I mean probably the lean
• 1:21:11
  Speaker 2: in this one is a first five under. The total
• 1:21:15
  Speaker 2: has gone down a little bit from eight and a
• 1:21:16
  Speaker 2: half to eight sixty five percent of tickets eighty two
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 2: percent of the cash on the over, so the money
• 1:21:21
  Speaker 2: cash percentage looks like it is on the over. I mean,
• 1:21:23
  Speaker 2: the bullpens are concerned, so I would leave the bullpens
• 1:21:26
  Speaker 2: out of it. I think a first five under kind
• 1:21:28
  Speaker 2: of makes sense in this one. To me, both pitchers
• 1:21:31
  Speaker 2: might do okay here, although Cincinnati would be more familiar
• 1:21:34
  Speaker 2: with McGreevy this time out. Money coming in at Cincinnati
• 1:21:37
  Speaker 2: as well, ave though they are public anti road favorite
• 1:21:39
  Speaker 2: seventy eight percent of tickets eighty four percent of the
• 1:21:41
  Speaker 2: cash on them, up from minus one oh seven to
• 1:21:44
  Speaker 2: one to nineteen, So that's the info in that one.
• 1:21:47
  Speaker 1: Texas at Houston.
• 1:21:49
  Speaker 2: Houston got the win yesterday despite being in a return
• 1:21:51
  Speaker 2: home spot big series here, man Houston has now sent
• 1:21:55
  Speaker 2: Texas to three games behind Houston, and Houston is a
• 1:21:58
  Speaker 2: half game behind Seattle in the division, so obviously both
• 1:22:02
  Speaker 2: teams have something to play for here. Quite obviously in Texas,
• 1:22:06
  Speaker 2: if they do poorly in the rest of the series,
• 1:22:08
  Speaker 2: that could pretty much end their playoff hopes, which is
• 1:22:11
  Speaker 2: not what they want.
• 1:22:12
  Speaker 1: Obviously, that would be pretty bad.
• 1:22:14
  Speaker 2: Texas has the better bullpen of the two, but they
• 1:22:17
  Speaker 2: did use actually, no excuse me, they didn't use that
• 1:22:19
  Speaker 2: much of their two days ago they did, but yesterday
• 1:22:21
  Speaker 2: they hardly used any of their bullpen. So yeah, Texas
• 1:22:23
  Speaker 2: should have a bullpen edge coming into this one. They
• 1:22:25
  Speaker 2: have the better bullpen and it's rested. Houston used more
• 1:22:28
  Speaker 2: of their bullpen yesterday, and their bullpen does have some injuries.
• 1:22:32
  Speaker 2: I don't think Hater or whatever the Josh Hater I
• 1:22:35
  Speaker 2: think is his name, they're closer, he's still not back.
• 1:22:38
  Speaker 2: So Texas, I think they actually have the pitching edge
• 1:22:40
  Speaker 2: across the board here. Texas has Merril Kelly pitching. It
• 1:22:43
  Speaker 2: was a pretty solid acquisition of the trade deadline for
• 1:22:46
  Speaker 2: them from Arizona. Good season for him, three point two
• 1:22:50
  Speaker 2: one ERA, one point six WHIP. He's been a little
• 1:22:53
  Speaker 2: bit better on the road three point one four ERA,
• 1:22:56
  Speaker 2: maybe because pitching in Arizona is difficult, though back when
• 1:22:59
  Speaker 2: he was there. He's been good for Texas since they
• 1:23:01
  Speaker 2: got him. His last four starts have all been wins
• 1:23:04
  Speaker 2: for Texas. He's allowed three or four earned runs and
• 1:23:07
  Speaker 2: all but one start with Texas was a little bit
• 1:23:11
  Speaker 2: shaky last time out against Milwaukee. Allowed ten hits in
• 1:23:14
  Speaker 2: five to two thirds, which isn't great, but he held
• 1:23:16
  Speaker 2: him to three earned runs, so he somehow was able
• 1:23:18
  Speaker 2: to limit the damage. Six strikeouts, no walks, thirteen to
• 1:23:22
  Speaker 2: one strike out walk Razire this month previous start was
• 1:23:25
  Speaker 2: against Houston, though, so Houston did just see him, so
• 1:23:27
  Speaker 2: they're gonna be a little bit more familiar with him
• 1:23:29
  Speaker 2: because they.
• 1:23:30
  Speaker 1: Just saw him.
• 1:23:30
  Speaker 2: But he did really well. It was in Texas though,
• 1:23:33
  Speaker 2: a pitcher friendly park. There seven innings, the one ear
• 1:23:36
  Speaker 2: and run allout of five hits, seven strikeouts, one walk,
• 1:23:39
  Speaker 2: so he did well and he has a two point
• 1:23:41
  Speaker 2: eight to four ERA this month, which is good overall.
• 1:23:45
  Speaker 2: His numbers against Houston, not just in that start, they
• 1:23:47
  Speaker 2: are really good. In sixty nine at bats thirteen to three,
• 1:23:50
  Speaker 2: strike a walk ratio, one eighty eight average allowed four
• 1:23:54
  Speaker 2: sixty nine oh ps. Kelly has done well against them,
• 1:23:57
  Speaker 2: and he's going up against a j blue ball blue
• 1:24:01
  Speaker 2: balls pitching for Houston here, you're gonna you're gonna get
• 1:24:04
  Speaker 2: blue balls because Houston is gonna make it look like
• 1:24:06
  Speaker 2: they're gonna win the game for you, and then they're
• 1:24:08
  Speaker 2: gonna lose.
• 1:24:08
  Speaker 1: That's what's gonna happen.
• 1:24:10
  Speaker 2: Blue Ball does have good numbers two point four five
• 1:24:12
  Speaker 2: e ra uh point nine to one whip uh but
• 1:24:17
  Speaker 2: and he is a little bit worse at home three
• 1:24:19
  Speaker 2: e R. But I don't know how much you can
• 1:24:20
  Speaker 2: look into his statistics because he's not gonna go that
• 1:24:22
  Speaker 2: deep into this game. I don't think although he has
• 1:24:24
  Speaker 2: had won five inning outing this year, he actually hasn't
• 1:24:27
  Speaker 2: pitched that much this year. It looks like he was
• 1:24:30
  Speaker 2: injured for a lot of the year or something, and
• 1:24:32
  Speaker 2: then he came back in August, and generally you're probably
• 1:24:36
  Speaker 2: gonna get about three innings out of him, would be
• 1:24:37
  Speaker 2: my guess in this one, So again, I guess we'll
• 1:24:41
  Speaker 2: see what happens here. He hasn't allowed to run this month, though,
• 1:24:44
  Speaker 2: so he is pitching pretty well, although his walks have
• 1:24:48
  Speaker 2: been a little bit high. But yeah, I mean, he's
• 1:24:50
  Speaker 2: pitching pretty well right now. He'll probably do decent when
• 1:24:52
  Speaker 2: he's out there. Texas's offense is not good. Houston has
• 1:24:55
  Speaker 2: the better offense. Uh, Texas only is nine at bats
• 1:24:58
  Speaker 2: against him. They're only one for nine, no.
• 1:25:00
  Speaker 1: Extrarace hits, three strikeouts.
• 1:25:01
  Speaker 2: Two walks, one to eleven batting average three eighty four ohps.
• 1:25:07
  Speaker 2: So I mean, I could see some arguments for a
• 1:25:09
  Speaker 2: first five under in this game.
• 1:25:11
  Speaker 1: Where is it at?
• 1:25:12
  Speaker 2: Money is coming in on the under it looks like
• 1:25:14
  Speaker 2: seventy five percent of tickets. We don't see the cash
• 1:25:16
  Speaker 2: percentage yet. Really the total drop from eight to eight
• 1:25:19
  Speaker 2: juice to the under. Money is also coming in on Houston,
• 1:25:22
  Speaker 2: believe it or not. Texas down for minus one thirty
• 1:25:24
  Speaker 2: five to minus one twelve. I think Texas maybe the
• 1:25:26
  Speaker 2: thought is they're just getting too much respect from the market,
• 1:25:29
  Speaker 2: just because the bullpen game for Houston gets disrespected. Sixty
• 1:25:34
  Speaker 2: two percent tickets, eighty nine percent of the cash coming
• 1:25:36
  Speaker 2: in on Houston though. Houston, I mean they do run
• 1:25:39
  Speaker 2: bullpen games sometimes. They're one of the teams that does
• 1:25:41
  Speaker 2: do that, so it might work out okay for them,
• 1:25:43
  Speaker 2: and Texas offense is pretty weak. But I still would
• 1:25:47
  Speaker 2: kind of lean towards Kelly. I mean, I'm a old
• 1:25:49
  Speaker 2: school I don't like the bullpen games. I think Kelly
• 1:25:52
  Speaker 2: will do pretty well here. And I think if you
• 1:25:53
  Speaker 2: go with Texas, a full game approach would be the
• 1:25:56
  Speaker 2: way to go.
• 1:25:56
  Speaker 1: Because they have the pitching edge across the board.
• 1:25:58
  Speaker 2: But I still think my preferred approach would be a
• 1:26:00
  Speaker 2: first five under in this game. I mean, if you
• 1:26:03
  Speaker 2: wanted to go full game, you could. Texas bullpen will
• 1:26:06
  Speaker 2: probably help you out. Houston's bullpen might not, though. Miami
• 1:26:10
  Speaker 2: at Colorado this is one of the ugliest series going
• 1:26:13
  Speaker 2: on right now. Colorado's returning home from the Pacific Coast.
• 1:26:16
  Speaker 2: I think both teams are off.
• 1:26:17
  Speaker 1: Yesterday, Colorado returning home from a road trip.
• 1:26:21
  Speaker 2: We know Colorado. I mean, they're just playing out the stretch.
• 1:26:23
  Speaker 2: Both of these teams.
• 1:26:24
  Speaker 1: Are Colorado's bad.
• 1:26:25
  Speaker 2: I don't know how much motivation these teams will have.
• 1:26:27
  Speaker 2: Miami just lost a four game win streak. They won
• 1:26:30
  Speaker 2: the series against Detroit and then lost the last game,
• 1:26:33
  Speaker 2: so they might not be in a great mindset even
• 1:26:35
  Speaker 2: though they are starting a road trip. Usually you are
• 1:26:37
  Speaker 2: focused when you're coming off beating Detroit and then losing
• 1:26:40
  Speaker 2: a win streak in the final game of that series
• 1:26:42
  Speaker 2: and having to go into elevation to play a historically
• 1:26:45
  Speaker 2: bad Colorado team, You're probably not gonna be that focus.
• 1:26:49
  Speaker 2: To be honest, Miami does have the better bullpend here.
• 1:26:52
  Speaker 2: Miami has the better offense, even though Colorado's is a
• 1:26:55
  Speaker 2: little bit better at home. Miami should have the better
• 1:26:58
  Speaker 2: starter in Uri Perez, but he's in pretty bad again recently.
• 1:27:01
  Speaker 1: I like him.
• 1:27:02
  Speaker 2: He has really good stuff, but he's kind of all
• 1:27:04
  Speaker 2: over the place, Like it looked like he had gotten
• 1:27:06
  Speaker 2: back to his former self because he's already had Tommy
• 1:27:09
  Speaker 2: John surgery.
• 1:27:10
  Speaker 1: I think, even though he's only twenty two, he was.
• 1:27:12
  Speaker 2: Really good before that. He struggled early this year, but
• 1:27:14
  Speaker 2: it looked like he came back and he was really
• 1:27:16
  Speaker 2: good again. But he's been really bad again recently, So
• 1:27:19
  Speaker 2: I don't know, man. I mean, I like him, so
• 1:27:22
  Speaker 2: I kind of want him to do better. Four point
• 1:27:24
  Speaker 2: six to seven RRA not very good this year. Though
• 1:27:26
  Speaker 2: one point one to one WHIP is still pretty good.
• 1:27:29
  Speaker 2: He's been really bad on the road six point four
• 1:27:32
  Speaker 2: to four ERA, so his stuff might not translate terribly
• 1:27:35
  Speaker 2: well to to courts Field. Here this pitcher friendly park,
• 1:27:38
  Speaker 2: he does allow a pretty good amount of fly balls,
• 1:27:41
  Speaker 2: so that doesn't translate well to Colorado either. This month
• 1:27:46
  Speaker 2: he has a nine point three to one ERA, even
• 1:27:48
  Speaker 2: though he has a nine to one strike a walk ratio, so.
• 1:27:50
  Speaker 1: That's really good.
• 1:27:50
  Speaker 2: But he's just he'sn't getting hit hard man. It's not
• 1:27:53
  Speaker 2: been the walks that have been the issue. And then
• 1:27:56
  Speaker 2: his last start in the prior month was horrific. He
• 1:27:58
  Speaker 2: didn't even make it out of the first inn against
• 1:28:00
  Speaker 2: the Mets to give up five and runs.
• 1:28:02
  Speaker 1: He was pitching pretty well before that with a little
• 1:28:04
  Speaker 1: bit of.
• 1:28:05
  Speaker 2: A blip, but right now he's really not a good form.
• 1:28:08
  Speaker 2: The two starts this month against Washington too, which is
• 1:28:11
  Speaker 2: really not a good sign. Against Colorado, they haven't seen
• 1:28:16
  Speaker 2: much of him. They only have eight at bats against him,
• 1:28:18
  Speaker 2: no strikeouts, no walks, two fifty average seven to fifty
• 1:28:21
  Speaker 2: ops with a couple of doubles in there.
• 1:28:24
  Speaker 1: Only four of their hitters have seen him before.
• 1:28:25
  Speaker 2: Our CIA and Tovar each have a double off him,
• 1:28:29
  Speaker 2: so I don't know. Man Perez might struggle a little
• 1:28:31
  Speaker 2: bit here, even though Colorado is not terribly familiar with him.
• 1:28:34
  Speaker 1: He's just not a good forum.
• 1:28:35
  Speaker 2: Kyle Freeland is pitching for the Rockies. Four point nine
• 1:28:38
  Speaker 2: to seventy are raised better than most of the starters,
• 1:28:41
  Speaker 2: if not all of them. One point four to sixty
• 1:28:44
  Speaker 2: whip is definitely too high though putting too many guys
• 1:28:46
  Speaker 2: on base.
• 1:28:47
  Speaker 1: He is worse at home.
• 1:28:48
  Speaker 2: I mean it's course field, so again makes sense five
• 1:28:51
  Speaker 2: point eight two ra at home. He's actually been surprisingly
• 1:28:54
  Speaker 2: good this month though across three appearances where he didn't
• 1:28:58
  Speaker 2: dwell against San Francisco didn't even get it anybody out,
• 1:29:01
  Speaker 2: but he had an eight any shot out against San
• 1:29:03
  Speaker 2: Diego incourse field with ten strikeouts and no walks, which
• 1:29:07
  Speaker 2: is pretty insane, and then he followed it up allowing
• 1:29:09
  Speaker 2: only one earned run to the Dodgers in five to
• 1:29:12
  Speaker 2: two thirds. It looks like the fielding kind of failed
• 1:29:14
  Speaker 2: behind him and didn't allow him to get further into
• 1:29:16
  Speaker 2: the game because they had multiple unearned runs against him.
• 1:29:19
  Speaker 2: There five strikeouts, one walk, so it's a one point
• 1:29:22
  Speaker 2: nine to eighty RRA this month fifteen to one strike
• 1:29:25
  Speaker 2: a walk ratio, and he's actually allowed three or fewer
• 1:29:27
  Speaker 2: earned runs and all but one out and going all
• 1:29:29
  Speaker 2: the way back into through August twelfth. So Freeland is
• 1:29:33
  Speaker 2: actually pitching a little bit better right now. Man, under
• 1:29:35
  Speaker 2: the radar. His numbering against Miami are not great though,
• 1:29:38
  Speaker 2: in twenty nine at bats six to one strike a
• 1:29:41
  Speaker 2: walk ratio three ten average, allowed seven to thirteen ops.
• 1:29:45
  Speaker 2: That's not very good. So I mean a lot of
• 1:29:49
  Speaker 2: different factors in this game to consider. I mean, it's
• 1:29:51
  Speaker 2: kind of ridiculous. It's very difficult to figure this game out.
• 1:29:54
  Speaker 2: Miami has seventy percent of tickets. Of course they're going
• 1:29:56
  Speaker 2: to be public. I mean, the betters will never want
• 1:29:58
  Speaker 2: Colorado s ninety two percent of the cash on them.
• 1:30:01
  Speaker 2: They dropped a little bit from minus one thirty eight
• 1:30:03
  Speaker 2: to minus one thirty six.
• 1:30:04
  Speaker 1: I could see the argument for Colorado in the first.
• 1:30:06
  Speaker 2: Five innings here, Man, the freelom might be able to
• 1:30:09
  Speaker 2: duel Perez because he's in the way better form right now.
• 1:30:12
  Speaker 2: I wouldn't do it full game because their bullpen is
• 1:30:14
  Speaker 2: so bad. Total drop from ten and a half to
• 1:30:17
  Speaker 2: ten seventy one percent tickets only sixty nine percent of
• 1:30:19
  Speaker 2: the cash on the over. I could see the argument
• 1:30:22
  Speaker 2: for that if you think Perez is actually gonna bring
• 1:30:24
  Speaker 2: his solid stuff this time. I do see some arguments
• 1:30:27
  Speaker 2: for an under, but I would only want to do
• 1:30:30
  Speaker 2: it in the first five innings, probably though, because even
• 1:30:31
  Speaker 2: though the bullpen's arrest at Colorado's stinks, and speaking of
• 1:30:35
  Speaker 2: bullpens that stink, Arizona is playing San Francisco here. Arizona
• 1:30:40
  Speaker 2: got the win yesterday eight to one. A that was
• 1:30:42
  Speaker 2: a one to one game late into the game, so
• 1:30:44
  Speaker 2: Tang actually didn't even pitch that bad for San Francisco yesterday.
• 1:30:48
  Speaker 2: San Francisco, they got to be feeling like they're probably
• 1:30:50
  Speaker 2: out of it now. Both of these teams are just
• 1:30:52
  Speaker 2: kind of I think, playing out the stretch at this point,
• 1:30:55
  Speaker 2: even though they're not technically eliminated.
• 1:30:57
  Speaker 1: It's a game where the'll.
• 1:30:58
  Speaker 2: Stowballs show up because they're jocking for position in the division,
• 1:31:01
  Speaker 2: like just for pride. I guess, especially San Francisco. You
• 1:31:04
  Speaker 2: know they're always playing for pride. San Francisco might be
• 1:31:08
  Speaker 2: a little bit angry after losing eight and eight to one,
• 1:31:11
  Speaker 2: excuse me yesterday, So I did think Arizona would was
• 1:31:14
  Speaker 2: the right side in the game yesterday, despite the fact
• 1:31:15
  Speaker 2: that they were returning on from a road trip. I
• 1:31:19
  Speaker 2: thought they had the better starter on the model it
• 1:31:21
  Speaker 2: was the Surprisingly, it was Arizona's bullpen that actually won
• 1:31:25
  Speaker 2: the game against San Francisco's bullpen, which makes no sense
• 1:31:28
  Speaker 2: because San Francisco's bullpen is the considerably better bullpen coming
• 1:31:32
  Speaker 2: into this game. Arizona's bullpen is fairly rested though, and
• 1:31:36
  Speaker 2: San Francisco's is way less rested, So even though San
• 1:31:39
  Speaker 2: Francisco is the better bullpen, the bullpen rest scenario is
• 1:31:42
  Speaker 2: not in favor of them, so that kind of negates
• 1:31:44
  Speaker 2: their bullpen edge. Arizona still has way better offense. Even
• 1:31:47
  Speaker 2: though they traded away a couple of their hitters, their
• 1:31:49
  Speaker 2: offense has still done pretty well. San Francisco has not
• 1:31:52
  Speaker 2: decided on a starting pitcher, so it makes this game
• 1:31:54
  Speaker 2: really difficult to handicap. And Eduardo Rodriguez, especially for Arizona,
• 1:32:00
  Speaker 2: hasn't been great. Four point nine eighty RRA. He's gotten
• 1:32:02
  Speaker 2: his RA down recently, one point five to five VRA
• 1:32:05
  Speaker 2: is still way too high, way too.
• 1:32:07
  Speaker 1: Many guys on base.
• 1:32:08
  Speaker 2: He's been worse at home five point two eight home ERA.
• 1:32:12
  Speaker 2: He's been better over his last three starts, so he's
• 1:32:14
  Speaker 2: allowed one in run total over his last three starts
• 1:32:17
  Speaker 2: at the Dodgers home against the Red Sox and then
• 1:32:20
  Speaker 2: at San Francisco. So he did just face San Francisco,
• 1:32:23
  Speaker 2: so they did just see him. But I think they're
• 1:32:24
  Speaker 2: familiar with him anyway. But this month is a point
• 1:32:27
  Speaker 2: seven to three ERA and ten to four strike out
• 1:32:29
  Speaker 2: walk ratio. His walks are still too high. I mean,
• 1:32:32
  Speaker 2: he's walked two or more in his last three outings,
• 1:32:34
  Speaker 2: even though they were all good outings. Like I said,
• 1:32:36
  Speaker 2: he allowed one run combined across the three outings against
• 1:32:39
  Speaker 2: good offenses in two of the three starts. San Francisco's
• 1:32:43
  Speaker 2: being the one that isn't good his numbers, and he
• 1:32:47
  Speaker 2: has pretty good numbers overall against San Francisco. It's not
• 1:32:50
  Speaker 2: just that one start. So I don't think the fact
• 1:32:51
  Speaker 2: that they're facing him again right away matters that much.
• 1:32:54
  Speaker 1: Because they're already familiar with him.
• 1:32:56
  Speaker 2: Sixty nine at bats nice, twenty two to six strike
• 1:32:59
  Speaker 2: out walk ratio pretty good at two thirty two batting average,
• 1:33:02
  Speaker 2: seven to fourteen oh ps allowed. He's got solid numbers
• 1:33:05
  Speaker 2: against San Francisco, and again he is in better for
• 1:33:08
  Speaker 2: him right now. So I don't know what San Francisco
• 1:33:11
  Speaker 2: is gonna do here, Like it might be a bullpen game,
• 1:33:13
  Speaker 2: it might be something pretty ugly here. So I'm not
• 1:33:16
  Speaker 2: sure that San Francisco is gonna bounce back in this one. Man,
• 1:33:18
  Speaker 2: we got Arizona just sitting around minus one twenty five
• 1:33:22
  Speaker 2: right now on the money line. I mean, you could
• 1:33:24
  Speaker 2: maybe take a shot with Arizona in this one. I
• 1:33:26
  Speaker 2: wouldn't really necessarily disagree with that. And then we have
• 1:33:28
  Speaker 2: Philly at La the Dodgers to finish this off. This
• 1:33:32
  Speaker 2: is a big series as well. Dodgers still trying to
• 1:33:34
  Speaker 2: fight in the division. I think they have more to
• 1:33:36
  Speaker 2: play for because Philly has a huge lead in their division.
• 1:33:39
  Speaker 2: I thought the Dodgers were gonna win yesterday and that
• 1:33:41
  Speaker 2: was not the case Philly. I thought it was a
• 1:33:45
  Speaker 2: better spot for the Dodgers for the most part, because
• 1:33:46
  Speaker 2: Philly was having to travel cross country with no time off,
• 1:33:51
  Speaker 2: which is never really that easy. Philly, they're still fighting
• 1:33:54
  Speaker 2: like they want to get the one seat.
• 1:33:56
  Speaker 1: Man, It's crazy.
• 1:33:56
  Speaker 2: Philadelphia's plays some good baseball here, even without Zach Wheeler.
• 1:34:01
  Speaker 2: They're still playing well. They only lost one game in
• 1:34:04
  Speaker 2: their last how many games is that? They won seven
• 1:34:06
  Speaker 2: of their last eight, including a big win yesterday, though
• 1:34:09
  Speaker 2: it might mean the Dodgers might bounce back here. Interestingly,
• 1:34:12
  Speaker 2: if you went with starting pitchers must start, which is
• 1:34:16
  Speaker 2: usually what you want to do in baseball, that's how
• 1:34:18
  Speaker 2: you want to bet it, because you want the starting
• 1:34:19
  Speaker 2: pitchers that are listed to be the starters, because it's
• 1:34:22
  Speaker 2: part of the handicap. La didn't start she In yesterday.
• 1:34:25
  Speaker 2: I mean, he's a good young pitcher man, but he
• 1:34:27
  Speaker 2: was actually a follower. They actually put an opener in
• 1:34:30
  Speaker 2: front of him for the first inning and then Sheen pitched,
• 1:34:32
  Speaker 2: and I don't think he was that bad. I think
• 1:34:34
  Speaker 2: it was the bullpens that gave up most of the
• 1:34:36
  Speaker 2: runs in that game last night, if I'm not mistaken.
• 1:34:39
  Speaker 2: And of course both these bullpens are pretty lousy, so
• 1:34:42
  Speaker 2: neither bullpen is good. The Dodgers' bullpen is actually the
• 1:34:44
  Speaker 2: slightly better one. The Dodgers use a little bit more
• 1:34:48
  Speaker 2: of their.
• 1:34:48
  Speaker 1: Bullpen yesterday, so the bullpen usage not very good here.
• 1:34:51
  Speaker 2: I would fade the bullpens in this game, but the
• 1:34:54
  Speaker 2: starting pitching is a decent starting pitching matcher Christopher Sanchez
• 1:34:59
  Speaker 2: is pitching for Philly. I mean he's been their best
• 1:35:01
  Speaker 2: starter now that Wheeler has gone. He might have been
• 1:35:04
  Speaker 2: debatably better than Wheeler this year. Anyway, He's been really
• 1:35:07
  Speaker 2: good this year. Two point five to seventy RA, one
• 1:35:09
  Speaker 2: point one to one whip. The only issue is is
• 1:35:12
  Speaker 2: Sanchez wearing down because he has now thrown more innings
• 1:35:16
  Speaker 2: than he's ever thrown before. He's gone almost one inning
• 1:35:19
  Speaker 2: above what he did last year, which was the most
• 1:35:21
  Speaker 2: innings that he threw.
• 1:35:22
  Speaker 1: So is he wearing down at all? I don't know.
• 1:35:25
  Speaker 2: He's a little bit worse than the road two point
• 1:35:27
  Speaker 2: eight seventy RA on the road, but he doesn't show
• 1:35:29
  Speaker 2: signs that he's wearing down yet because he's allowed one
• 1:35:31
  Speaker 2: or run each of his last three outings, going at
• 1:35:34
  Speaker 2: least six innings, and all three he's been completely on point.
• 1:35:38
  Speaker 2: Nineteen to two strike a walk ratio, that's man excellent.
• 1:35:41
  Speaker 2: Starts a tour against kind of weak offenses Atlanta Miami.
• 1:35:45
  Speaker 2: Then he did pitch well against the Mets too, So Sanchez,
• 1:35:48
  Speaker 2: I mean he's still on point right now.
• 1:35:49
  Speaker 1: He's really good.
• 1:35:50
  Speaker 2: His numbers against the Dodgers are mediocre and seventy four
• 1:35:53
  Speaker 2: at bats, seventeen to five strike a walk ratio two
• 1:35:56
  Speaker 2: fifty seven average allowed, seven to thirty six ops. I mean,
• 1:36:00
  Speaker 2: I would still lean towards Sanchez pitching well in this game, though,
• 1:36:03
  Speaker 2: I mean, that is what he's been doing almost every start.
• 1:36:06
  Speaker 2: He's gonna go up against shohey Otani, who I think
• 1:36:10
  Speaker 2: is not started. I think they skipped him in the
• 1:36:12
  Speaker 2: rotation the last time out. He's been in the starting
• 1:36:15
  Speaker 2: rotation for a bit now. I think he did go
• 1:36:17
  Speaker 2: five innings once, but he's I think they kind of
• 1:36:19
  Speaker 2: rushed him a little bit, maybe because he hadn't pitched
• 1:36:21
  Speaker 2: in like two years, so they were trying to ramp
• 1:36:23
  Speaker 2: him up. They had him pitching one inning, then two
• 1:36:26
  Speaker 2: winnings and three, so they did it kind of the
• 1:36:28
  Speaker 2: right way, but I think they kind of then still
• 1:36:30
  Speaker 2: accelerated it too fast, and once he started going like
• 1:36:33
  Speaker 2: almost a full starters workload, it wasn't as good anymore.
• 1:36:36
  Speaker 1: So we can see it here.
• 1:36:37
  Speaker 2: I mean, I hate how ESPN does this because you
• 1:36:39
  Speaker 2: can't see the batter versus pitcher stats with him as
• 1:36:42
  Speaker 2: a pitcher, because they have him listed as a DH
• 1:36:44
  Speaker 2: again right now, just because he hasn't pitched in eleven
• 1:36:47
  Speaker 2: days now.
• 1:36:48
  Speaker 1: He did bounce back, though.
• 1:36:49
  Speaker 2: He had a bad start at course Field and won
• 1:36:52
  Speaker 2: any Anaheim before that, But he went five innings against
• 1:36:54
  Speaker 2: Cincinnati and actually was good nine strikeouts won to earn
• 1:36:57
  Speaker 2: run in that one, and then he shut out Baltimore
• 1:37:00
  Speaker 2: over three and two thirds last time. I don't know
• 1:37:01
  Speaker 2: if he maybe he got hurt in the game or something.
• 1:37:04
  Speaker 2: That's why he exited that game early. That's possible because
• 1:37:08
  Speaker 2: I think he was pitching well. He's probably gonna go
• 1:37:10
  Speaker 2: the five innings again in that one, so he probably
• 1:37:13
  Speaker 2: will actually go basically a starters workload in this one.
• 1:37:15
  Speaker 2: I don't know what his numbers are against Philly though,
• 1:37:17
  Speaker 2: and Philly has a good offense. Both these teams have
• 1:37:19
  Speaker 2: good offenses. Dodgers hit really well at home. I'll give
• 1:37:24
  Speaker 2: the Dodgers the offensive edge they do have it slightly. Anyway, Again,
• 1:37:29
  Speaker 2: this is another tough game to handicap man. I mean,
• 1:37:31
  Speaker 2: Otani has pitched well when he's been out there. An
• 1:37:34
  Speaker 2: under might make sense in the first five innings here.
• 1:37:36
  Speaker 1: But it's gonna be a low total. It's it's seven
• 1:37:38
  Speaker 1: and a half juice to.
• 1:37:38
  Speaker 2: The under on the full game, a little bit of
• 1:37:40
  Speaker 2: money on the over fifty three percent take us fifty
• 1:37:42
  Speaker 2: eight percent of cash on the over, I mean the over.
• 1:37:46
  Speaker 2: If you want to go over, you got to include
• 1:37:47
  Speaker 2: the bullpens, obviously, because the bullpen's pretty much stink. So
• 1:37:52
  Speaker 2: that's definitely what you would want to do if you
• 1:37:53
  Speaker 2: want to go over. If you want to go under,
• 1:37:55
  Speaker 2: it would have to be a first five inning under,
• 1:37:57
  Speaker 2: and you're probably gonna be going under three and a half,
• 1:37:59
  Speaker 2: which is a little litle bit dicey, and you don't
• 1:38:01
  Speaker 2: know exactly what you're gonna quite get. I guess out
• 1:38:03
  Speaker 2: of either pitcher really, though it does look like an
• 1:38:05
  Speaker 2: under to me early in the game.
• 1:38:07
  Speaker 1: Bullpens might implode though.
• 1:38:09
  Speaker 2: LA is up for minus one twelve to minus one
• 1:38:11
  Speaker 2: thirty three, seventy eight percent of tickets, ninety six percent
• 1:38:14
  Speaker 2: of cash coming on the money.
• 1:38:15
  Speaker 1: Coming in in LA.
• 1:38:16
  Speaker 2: I wouldn't really disagree with it, because I think they
• 1:38:19
  Speaker 2: have a little bit more motivation here. I mean, they
• 1:38:21
  Speaker 2: have more to fight for right now, so I mean
• 1:38:25
  Speaker 2: I would slightly lean that way, and they I don't
• 1:38:28
  Speaker 2: know if they even have a slight bullpen edge at
• 1:38:29
  Speaker 2: this point though, because they use a little bit more
• 1:38:31
  Speaker 2: of their bullpen.
• 1:38:31
  Speaker 1: You say, so that would worry me. It's still fading.
• 1:38:34
  Speaker 2: Sanchez does worry me. I mean, he's not usually a
• 1:38:37
  Speaker 2: guy you want to fade. So let's go to the
• 1:38:39
  Speaker 2: best bets man. And as you know, I already gave
• 1:38:42
  Speaker 2: out one on WNBA, and it's only gonna be one
• 1:38:44
  Speaker 2: playing baseball and it almost looks too obvious WNBA. Remember
• 1:38:48
  Speaker 2: Seattle plus five and a half. You can go to
• 1:38:50
  Speaker 2: the beginning of the show if you want to see
• 1:38:52
  Speaker 2: the analysis there. The one baseball play is Cubs Pittsburgh
• 1:38:55
  Speaker 2: under the seven. Again, it almost looks too easy. It's
• 1:38:58
  Speaker 2: making me a little bit worried by the way Jose
• 1:39:00
  Speaker 2: Suarez is listed as Atlanta's started now. So if you
• 1:39:03
  Speaker 2: want me to look at that real quickly at the
• 1:39:05
  Speaker 2: end of the show, I will. We're gonna go undering
• 1:39:09
  Speaker 2: this one, though total is sitting at seven with heavy
• 1:39:12
  Speaker 2: juice to the under. We do see sixty percent of
• 1:39:14
  Speaker 2: the cash on the under tickets on the under exeusal
• 1:39:17
  Speaker 2: niney percent of the cash on the over money coming
• 1:39:19
  Speaker 2: in in the over.
• 1:39:20
  Speaker 1: Again, I don't agree with that. I'm worried that we're fading.
• 1:39:22
  Speaker 1: The money here.
• 1:39:23
  Speaker 2: But the Cubs, I mean their bullpen is fined. They're
• 1:39:26
  Speaker 2: a little bit unrested right now. Both teams bullpen usage
• 1:39:29
  Speaker 2: is moderate yesterday, I mean a little bit less than
• 1:39:32
  Speaker 2: moderate even.
• 1:39:33
  Speaker 1: Maybe Pittsburgh's bullpen is mediocre. Cubs bulpen is fairly good.
• 1:39:37
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh's offense is also bad, and Chicago their offense really
• 1:39:40
  Speaker 2: hasn't been that good for the last like month plus really,
• 1:39:44
  Speaker 2: so I'm definitely okay with going under as far as
• 1:39:47
  Speaker 2: that's started. This is more of a pitcher friendly park,
• 1:39:49
  Speaker 2: and a lot of this is the starting pitching. Cad
• 1:39:51
  Speaker 2: Horton is pitching for the Cubs. He's been really good
• 1:39:54
  Speaker 2: for them. Two point seventy RA one point one to
• 1:39:56
  Speaker 2: one whip. He's thrown one hundred and ten innings, So
• 1:39:59
  Speaker 2: you gotta war is he wearing down a little bit?
• 1:40:01
  Speaker 2: Because he is a rookie, so like, how far can
• 1:40:04
  Speaker 2: he go? He's not used to doing this, but he
• 1:40:05
  Speaker 2: hasn't shown signs of wearing down yet. Really, three point
• 1:40:08
  Speaker 2: seventy five R in the road, and I know we're
• 1:40:10
  Speaker 2: going against that. He's a little bit worse on the road,
• 1:40:12
  Speaker 2: but he's still been really good this month. Two starts
• 1:40:15
  Speaker 2: both against Atlanta though eight to one strike at walker
• 1:40:18
  Speaker 2: as your point seven to ninety ra really good. Allowed
• 1:40:21
  Speaker 2: two or fewer runs in every start going all the
• 1:40:23
  Speaker 2: way back through into the beginning of July, basically, and
• 1:40:27
  Speaker 2: allowed one or fewer in all but one of those starts,
• 1:40:30
  Speaker 2: and he is facing the worst offensive baseball clubs have
• 1:40:33
  Speaker 2: the way better offense. Here. Horton against Pittsburgh fourteen at bats,
• 1:40:38
  Speaker 2: so they're not that familiar with him. Three strikeouts, one walk, two,
• 1:40:41
  Speaker 2: fourteen batting average allowed, five p fifty two oh ps.
• 1:40:44
  Speaker 2: So he's done well against them. And then of course
• 1:40:46
  Speaker 2: he's going up against Paul Skins. I mean, so yeah,
• 1:40:49
  Speaker 2: I mean, you're probably not necessarily gonna get value on
• 1:40:51
  Speaker 2: an under in a matchup like this, but it seems
• 1:40:54
  Speaker 2: like an under to me.
• 1:40:55
  Speaker 1: Man Skeins.
• 1:40:56
  Speaker 2: I know he's been a little bit limited because they
• 1:40:57
  Speaker 2: don't want to burn out his arm and they have
• 1:40:59
  Speaker 2: nothing left to play for. They probably would like to
• 1:41:01
  Speaker 2: beat the Cubs though, if they can. Schemes obviously a
• 1:41:04
  Speaker 2: really good season for him. One point nine two we
• 1:41:06
  Speaker 2: are a point nine two whip. He's better at home
• 1:41:09
  Speaker 2: one point five four we are at home hasn't given
• 1:41:12
  Speaker 2: up a run in his last two outings this month,
• 1:41:14
  Speaker 2: including one against the Dodgers sixteen to one strike a
• 1:41:18
  Speaker 2: walk ratio. Over that span, He's typically going about six
• 1:41:21
  Speaker 2: innings and most of his starts at this point. Yeah,
• 1:41:24
  Speaker 2: he's allowed two or fewer and runs in his last
• 1:41:26
  Speaker 2: five outings, one or fewer in his last four.
• 1:41:28
  Speaker 1: I mean, we get it. Skeens is really good. He's
• 1:41:31
  Speaker 1: good against the Cubs.
• 1:41:32
  Speaker 2: Two and seventy five at bats twenty eight to ten
• 1:41:34
  Speaker 2: strike a walk ratio is too many walks, but seven
• 1:41:37
  Speaker 2: of them are half and bush, so he kind of
• 1:41:39
  Speaker 2: just pitches around them a little bit. I guess two
• 1:41:41
  Speaker 2: thirteen batting every six sixty six ops, which I know
• 1:41:44
  Speaker 2: is evil, but his numbers are good, So I'm not
• 1:41:48
  Speaker 2: gonna overthink this one. I'm not gonna overthink it. Pun intended.
• 1:41:52
  Speaker 2: We will go under in that one and hope that
• 1:41:54
  Speaker 2: it gets there, man, because it looks like the money
• 1:41:56
  Speaker 2: is coming in against it.
• 1:41:57
  Speaker 1: But that looks like it's one of those ones that
• 1:42:00
  Speaker 1: so obvious.
• 1:42:00
  Speaker 2: But I love the starting pitching matchup, and I'm just like,
• 1:42:02
  Speaker 2: the numbers is all kind of like indicated, So under
• 1:42:05
  Speaker 2: in that one and then again w NBA Seattle plus
• 1:42:09
  Speaker 2: five and a half and yeah once again Cobs Pittsburgh
• 1:42:11
  Speaker 2: under the seven. That's gonna do it. Learn to toad
• 1:42:13
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• 1:42:16
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• 1:42:19
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• 1:42:23
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• 1:42:33
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• 1:42:36
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• 1:42:39
  Speaker 2: how how the cake gets made. Is that What I
• 1:42:42
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• 1:42:45
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• 1:42:46
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• 1:42:47
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• 1:43:00
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• 1:43:09
  Speaker 2: there's a yuke Spotify feed there. But anyway, thanks guys
• 1:43:11
  Speaker 2: for hanging out. Curtis, Nate, Fernando, thanks for hanging out, guys.
• 1:43:17
  Speaker 2: I'll be back again tomorrow. I guess we'll have a
• 1:43:19
  Speaker 2: Wednesday slate with mostly baseball again in some WNBA probably peace.
• 1:43:23
  Speaker 1: For now, have a good Tuesday,