Latest / Inside Politics / Jim Chalmers’ facts, an ordinary voter’s feelings and the political reality

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Jim Chalmers’ facts, an ordinary voter’s feelings and the political reality · Inside Politics

0:00
S1: Hello and welcome to Inside Politics. I'm Jacqueline Maley, and
0:03
S1: I'm back after an extended break and very happy to
0:06
S1: be here. Our chief political correspondent, Paul Satchell is indisposed
0:10
S1: this week. He's very pressed for time, but instead we
0:13
S1: have a more than adequate replacement. We have our chief
0:17
S1: economics correspondent, Shane Wright, who, of course, is a special
0:19
S1: guest star of the pod. And now he's here in
0:22
S1: more than a starring role. Welcome, Shane.
0:25
S2: Well, we we both know that Paul Satchell really just
0:29
S2: not up to standard for this sort of heavy hitting discussion.
0:32
S2: So that's why we've dumped him, let's be honest.
0:34
S1: Yeah. That's right. We've we've elbowed him aside for the
0:37
S1: serious economics chat because there is a lot of economics
0:40
S1: news around this week. And we have also had a
0:44
S1: visiting from a past treasurer on which more later. But
0:47
S1: first I want to talk about Treasurer Jim Chalmers. So
0:50
S1: Jim Chalmers gave a speech to the Australia Institute this week,
0:52
S1: where he really wanted to emphasise how much he empathizes
0:56
S1: with One Nation voters or even voters who are just
0:59
S1: a little bit one nation curious. Can you tell us
1:02
S1: more about this speech? Shane. What was he really trying
1:04
S1: to signal?
1:06
S2: Well, it is interesting because this isn't the first time
1:09
S2: that Chalmers has actually spoken about One Nation and tried
1:14
S2: to sort of thread the needle between, like, say, elements
1:18
S2: of the Labor Party that dismiss One Nation supporters or
1:21
S2: the 1 or 1 nation in general, and those who
1:24
S2: can see it as a real risk to, to the
1:28
S2: party and trying to engage with One Nation voters. And
1:31
S2: I think it goes to the fact that he represents
1:34
S2: a part of Brisbane Logan City area, which is an
1:38
S2: area that you would expect to see a bit of
1:39
S2: One Nation support.
1:41
S3: Here in Australia. Support for One Nation has doubled in
1:45
S3: the past year. Now, I've never been complacent about them
1:49
S3: or complacent about this at any stage.
1:52
S2: So he gave this address which effectively said don't talk
1:55
S2: down to One Nation supporters what they are feeling. What
1:59
S2: they are complaining about is real.
2:02
S3: But facts don't beat feelings. Feelings are as real as facts.
2:07
S3: The past will always feel safe and familiar and desirable
2:10
S3: because by definition, we understand it better than we understand
2:13
S3: the future. That's normal. That's human. And when a significant
2:18
S3: swathe of our fellow Australians find that message of returning
2:23
S3: to an idealized version of the good old days appealing,
2:26
S3: we shouldn't turn on them for that.
2:29
S2: So it's really interesting that he's having to he's making
2:31
S2: that point was to the Australia Institute, which, uh, there's
2:35
S2: a left wing, uh, advocacy slash, uh, think tank, which
2:40
S2: sometimes doesn't really go to the depths of the real
2:44
S2: politic of the fact that one nation is polling quite
2:47
S2: well and you don't want to offend One Nation voters,
2:51
S2: you actually want to win them back and actually come
2:53
S2: up with policies that resonate with them. And that's largely
2:57
S2: where you've where Chalmers got to in his speech.
2:59
S1: Yeah, yeah. He did talk a lot about Logan, which
3:02
S1: is where he's from. And now the, the the district
3:05
S1: or the electorate that he represents. And he also talked about,
3:08
S1: you know, we have all the facts to push back
3:10
S1: on why a return to a sort of nostalgic fictional
3:13
S1: Australian past is, is never going to happen and is
3:16
S1: not a good idea anyway. But facts don't beat feelings.
3:18
S1: Feelings are as real as facts, which I really liked
3:21
S1: and is very true. He also said that, you know,
3:26
S1: the desire for the past is rooted with a dissatisfaction
3:29
S1: in the present. So he very much acknowledged that that
3:32
S1: dissatisfaction is primarily linked to the economy, to cost of
3:36
S1: living pressures, to interest rate rises and so forth. And
3:39
S1: he did sort of say like, give us a bit
3:41
S1: of time, right? He basically said, things are going to
3:44
S1: be pretty difficult or like ropey for the next while,
3:47
S1: but in 12 months things will get better. So do
3:50
S1: you think voters are going to give him 12 months?
3:52
S1: It's quite a long time in electoral cycle.
3:55
S2: It is a long time. But at the end of
3:57
S2: the day, this is a government that's got 94 seats
3:59
S2: in the in the House. Despite everything, if an election
4:04
S2: was held today, the polls mean labor would still probably
4:08
S2: have a majority in the House because so much is the.
4:12
S2: The fight is between the coalition and One Nation in
4:15
S2: in regional and peri regional seats. And he is looking
4:18
S2: like he has to have this right. Things are going
4:20
S2: to get better. Let's have a look forward. Because if
4:25
S2: you look right at the moment, it's pretty terrible for
4:28
S2: a lot of people like inflation, the petrol prices, the
4:31
S2: diesel prices, food prices, interest rates, even the softening of
4:36
S2: the jobs market, real wages are going backwards. That's not
4:40
S2: a great message for any treasurer to have right at
4:43
S2: the moment. Part of this is beyond his control. And
4:46
S2: in that speech, he actually referenced what's going on in Iran.
4:49
S2: We had inflation figures in the United States out this
4:52
S2: week just showing how big a problem that war has become.
4:57
S2: And every country in the world is feeling it. As
5:00
S2: much as Jim Chalmers would like to say, yeah, that's
5:02
S2: Donald Trump's fault, uh, voters don't care. It's what's happening
5:06
S2: to them right here.
5:07
S1: That's right. And it doesn't cut it. And we do
5:09
S1: have significant kind of economic evidence or economic data that
5:13
S1: Australia is a bit of an outlier in advanced economies
5:16
S1: in terms of its inflation figures and its job figures.
5:19
S1: I'll go to that.
5:20
S2: I would I would push back on that a little
5:22
S2: bit because that's there's this whole argument, oh, the domestic
5:27
S2: inflation or unemployment. Australia's unemployment rate, by comparison to the
5:31
S2: rest of the world is is low, like in Canada,
5:34
S2: for instance, which is the most comparable country in the
5:36
S2: world to to the Australian one. Unemployment's got a six
5:39
S2: in front of it, right at the right at the moment.
5:42
S2: And they've got their own problems with the the big
5:44
S2: orange bloke in the white House.
5:46
S1: They certainly do. They're basically they're basically in a trade war.
5:49
S1: They're they're staunch enemies where they used to be the
5:51
S1: staunchest allies. I mean, Chalmers did push back a little
5:54
S1: bit just as you just have on that, because there
5:57
S1: has been this narrative and a lot of economists are
5:59
S1: saying this, independent economists are saying this, that not to
6:02
S1: mention the RBA, that the government needs to to pull
6:05
S1: money out of the economy and to basically dial back
6:08
S1: government spending because there's too much spending in the economy. Obviously,
6:11
S1: government spending is at a record high of GDP, and
6:14
S1: it's not.
6:15
S2: No, no it's not. It's just not. It is.
6:18
S1: Not. Tell me about that then, because that's a narrative
6:20
S1: that is absolutely pressed by the Chalmers detractors.
6:24
S2: Your first point is you have you've just excluded the
6:27
S2: Covid where it was much higher spending, excluding.
6:30
S1: Excluded.
6:31
S2: Including Covid. And if I went back to World War Two,
6:33
S2: it's off the charts.
6:34
S1: Okay. This is not we're not in an emergency anymore.
6:37
S1: We're not in a we're not in extraordinary times in
6:39
S1: those in that sense.
6:40
S2: I think you might argue that if there's a war
6:42
S2: going on in the Middle East, which has pushed oil prices,
6:45
S2: oil today is $106 a barrel.
6:49
S1: But but that.
6:50
S2: Is a global factor right at the moment. And you
6:53
S2: can see you can actually. In fact, the inflation figures
6:56
S2: that came out last a couple of weeks ago, inflation
6:59
S2: would have fallen if not for what's going on in oil.
7:02
S2: So and this is what the the RBA has been
7:04
S2: really worried about this for ever since the war got
7:08
S2: underway because there was already pressure in, say, the construction
7:11
S2: sector and the housing construction sector is really important to
7:14
S2: the overall inflation figure. And we have seen since like
7:19
S2: since August where the the oil prices kicked back off again,
7:24
S2: it's not getting any easier. And that's it's really hard
7:27
S2: to get a it's I know it doesn't fit the narrative,
7:31
S2: but oil at the end of the day is such
7:33
S2: a big factor in this inflation story.
7:35
S1: Sure.
7:36
S2: Not just here, but around the world.
7:37
S1: As you know. As you know, we're not here to
7:39
S1: push any narrative. What I'm saying is there are voices,
7:42
S1: very credible voices like the RBA, the board minutes, the
7:45
S1: board meeting minutes of which I read this week on
7:48
S1: your instruction. You did. And I pointed out a little
7:51
S1: sentence that says fiscal policy must be restrained and help
7:55
S1: contain demand pressures at a time of heightened inflationary risks.
7:59
S1: Which is me, my common man. Reading of that is
8:02
S1: there's nothing we can do about the the global oil
8:05
S1: supply shock and the very real pressures there, which are
8:08
S1: affecting all the economies. There is a lot the government
8:10
S1: can do about fiscal pressure within within the Australian economy.
8:14
S2: You've made one mistake. What there is more than one
8:17
S2: government in this country is trade off. And do you
8:20
S2: know where the biggest the biggest spending is actually coming
8:23
S2: through the states right at the moment? Yes. The federal
8:25
S2: budget deficit is at 22 billion combined. The others and
8:30
S2: the the states are and the the the previous previous
8:34
S2: minutes have. And Michelle Bullock has actually gone to this
8:37
S2: point when she talks about government. She's not just talking
8:40
S2: about the guys in Canberra. They are a huge factor.
8:45
S2: But New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland like the. They are
8:50
S2: by themselves running loose fiscal policy at the moment. So
8:54
S2: everyone says it's government and it's it's a lower G government.
8:58
S2: It's not the capital G federal government.
9:01
S1: But okay, I hope you're not having a crack at
9:02
S1: my beloved New South Wales metro, the South west metro,
9:05
S1: which has cost a lot of money and I will
9:07
S1: not hear a word.
9:07
S2: Again. I only point out it's what was it? A
9:10
S2: triple or double? The price? Worth every penny.
9:13
S1: Worth every.
9:13
S2: Penny. Every penny. But these are the sorts. These are
9:16
S2: the sorts of things that these have been building up
9:19
S2: for a long time. Yes. The states have finally got
9:21
S2: around to infrastructure. They started building it all at once, uh,
9:27
S2: with the. And remember, it's not many years ago that
9:30
S2: the reserve Bank was saying, yes, we need more infrastructure
9:32
S2: states go out and borrow the Reserve Bank's memory of
9:35
S2: what it was saying, say, pre-COVID has got really hazy
9:40
S2: about the role it's played.
9:41
S1: But can I, if I can direct you back to
9:43
S1: to Jim Chalmers distinction between facts and feelings? So you're
9:47
S1: talking about facts and I'm talking more about feelings and
9:50
S1: political reality. So even though the the the reserve Bank
9:54
S1: might be talking about small G government, including the state
9:56
S1: governments and their big infrastructure spends and their huge deficits, the.
10:00
S1: I think the average voter is looking to the government
10:03
S1: to fix the economy. The federal government to fix the economy.
10:06
S1: And there is. You know, we've heard some rumblings within labor,
10:09
S1: labor ranks, labor MPs. I think there was a meeting
10:12
S1: of right wing labor MPs from the from the right
10:15
S1: faction basically pushing back on the cabinet a little bit
10:19
S1: and saying, you know, we're really worried about small business
10:21
S1: backlash to the various tax changes that are becoming a
10:25
S1: bit of a bad news story for the for the
10:26
S1: Albanese government. They're having a bit of a ropey time
10:29
S1: in parliament because they're trying to get through discretionary trust
10:32
S1: tax changes. They're having a backlash on the credit card
10:35
S1: surcharge surcharge matter. Small business were annoyed about the tax
10:39
S1: office not letting them put their tax bills on a
10:42
S1: credit card. And now they've got this sort of private
10:44
S1: health insurance rebate for over 65 legislation that they can't
10:49
S1: at the moment get through in its current form. So
10:52
S1: there are all these little grass fires. What do you
10:54
S1: think the overall impression is for voters who aren't maybe
10:57
S1: taking a lot of notice of the minutiae of like
10:59
S1: discretionary trusts?
11:01
S2: Well, I think it's like we had the resolve poll
11:04
S2: showing that Labor's vote, even though it was up a
11:05
S2: little bit, it's still under 30%. That's that's telling you
11:10
S2: almost all that you need to know about how the
11:14
S2: public is feeling. Because ultimately, cost of living, the economy
11:18
S2: is always central to how an economy, how a government
11:23
S2: is perceived in the polls more broadly. And there is
11:27
S2: a reason why, say, one nation is still around. Like
11:29
S2: 1 in 4 voters are still around, that people are
11:32
S2: still like, there's a lot of anger in that vote.
11:34
S2: And it comes back to inflation, real wages growth, higher
11:39
S2: interest rates, which are at 4.6%. So you're at a
11:42
S2: 15 year high straight off there. So that's that is
11:46
S2: part and parcel of it. And if I go to
11:49
S2: the petrol bowser, and I'm fueling up at $2, 30
11:52
S2: or $2.40 a litre, which I did the other day.
11:54
S2: I'm going to be pissed at somebody and and almost always,
11:58
S2: no matter what country you're in, you're pissed at the
12:00
S2: government that's in office at that point in time. No
12:03
S2: good for, uh, Anthony Albanese and Jim Chalmers, who is
12:08
S2: like what we saw this week, say the trust change,
12:11
S2: the changes to trusts. This is the third leg of
12:15
S2: the big budget changes that were announced on net gearing
12:19
S2: and capital gains tax. We are seeing in real time
12:22
S2: huge changes to the tax system, and there are people
12:26
S2: who are going to pay more tax, particularly in small business,
12:29
S2: who aren't happy. I haven't met many people who are
12:32
S2: happy paying more tax. And so this is a small,
12:36
S2: really concerted group of people and who've got a really
12:40
S2: can magnify their voice really loudly. And that's what they're doing.
12:43
S1: Yeah. Um, I mean, I guess it's sort of like
12:45
S1: a feeling of the breach of the social contract that,
12:47
S1: you know, that people work really hard and they pay
12:50
S1: their taxes and they do all the right things, but
12:53
S1: they feel like they're still not they're still not able
12:55
S1: to provide adequately for their family, perhaps in the area
12:58
S1: of housing. And they worry, I think, that their children
13:01
S1: will not have as good a life or will not
13:02
S1: be as prosperous as they have been. And that's yeah,
13:05
S1: as you say, that's sort of something that's spreading all
13:07
S1: over the developed world. What's the feeling, though, inside the
13:11
S1: Treasurer's office and with the treasurer himself, because there has
13:14
S1: been an enormous amount of backlash. And I guess it's
13:16
S1: amplified by social media and the divisiveness of social media
13:20
S1: and the sort of canny, you know, ingenious ability of,
13:23
S1: you know, small business operators to kind of, you know,
13:25
S1: mount a viral campaign with all these memes, as they
13:28
S1: did for Anthony Albanese in the aftermath of the budget.
13:31
S1: So while backlash to changes and people having to pay
13:34
S1: more tax is not anything new under the sun, the
13:37
S1: ability to amplify those concerns and those grievances is quite new.
13:42
S2: Oh, it is, and it's one of the reasons One
13:44
S2: Nation is doing quite well because they they have a good,
13:46
S2: simple message of anger, which you can amplify through social media.
13:50
S2: Social media is brilliant for amplifying anger. Yeah.
13:53
S1: Well, that's a business model. It's literally the business model.
13:55
S2: Yeah, it is the business model in terms of the
13:57
S2: Treasurer's office not quite under siege because ultimately the the
14:02
S2: capital gains tax changes are through the negative gains. Changes
14:08
S2: are negative. Gearing changes are through the Parliament. These ones
14:12
S2: unless the Greens go to Defcon four in opposition to
14:18
S2: the changes to trusts, will probably pass the Parliament this year.
14:23
S2: We would have to go back to pre 2000 to
14:25
S2: see such major tax changes get passed through the Parliament.
14:29
S2: And I'm thinking of the GST like.
14:32
S1: The good old days.
14:33
S2: So that's where you've got the short term pain. And
14:36
S2: this is why Chalmers was saying give us 12 months
14:40
S2: and you'll see the economy will look a bit better.
14:43
S2: The tax changes will be a bit better. House prices
14:45
S2: may actually have been starting to turn. So you've got
14:48
S2: those sort of factors going forward, but. Right. Right at
14:52
S2: the maelstrom, right at the heart of the maelstrom. Right
14:54
S2: now it is a bit rocky. It's clearly a bit rocky.
14:57
S2: And you can see that even with the language from
14:59
S2: Anthony Albanese and the brouhaha, whether he was the one
15:03
S2: who listened to small business or not in the speech
15:07
S2: that he gave earlier in the week.
15:08
S1: Yeah, I know, I followed that a little bit. I
15:10
S1: must say that I would put that in the category
15:12
S1: of things that ordinary voters will, will never notice or
15:15
S1: care about.
15:15
S2: I think you're absolutely right in that case.
15:18
S1: Uh, while we're on treasurers and seeing as you just mentioned,
15:21
S1: the GST, Shane, former treasurer Josh Frydenberg has popped up
15:25
S1: a lot this week. He's promoting his new book, which
15:27
S1: is called A Grateful Son. I'm interested in what you
15:31
S1: make of Josh Frydenberg's reappearance more generally, but also he
15:35
S1: has specifically come up with some, you know, basically come
15:38
S1: up with a sort of economic plan or an economic blueprint,
15:40
S1: which boils down to raise the GST and cut income taxes.
15:44
S4: What I was speaking to in this book is the
15:47
S4: importance of cutting taxes for income earners to ensure that
15:51
S4: they can keep more of what they want. This is
15:53
S4: not about increasing taxes. This actually been reducing the overall
15:57
S4: tax burden.
15:58
S1: Which Angus Taylor roundly rejected as anything close to to
16:02
S1: being coalition policy. Why didn't he mention that when he
16:06
S1: was treasurer? That's my first question, Shane.
16:09
S2: That is a very good question.
16:11
S1: You pose a really good idea. You know, here's a
16:13
S1: time when you could have brought it up when you
16:15
S1: were treasurer.
16:16
S2: I actually thought of Joe Hockey when he used his
16:19
S2: valedictory speech to say, hey, look, we should do something
16:21
S2: about negative gearing. Oh that's right, I was only treasurer
16:24
S2: for the last two years. I may have done it
16:26
S2: something then. I know and and like just to get
16:30
S2: into the weeds of the GST proposal. This is very
16:34
S2: Josh Frydenberg. He left out one really large element of
16:38
S2: this whole debate. And that is under the GST deal
16:42
S2: that Howard put in place, you increase the GST. All
16:44
S2: that money goes to the states. Yeah. And that leaves us.
16:48
S2: And so. Yep. And you've taken the hit federally with
16:52
S2: a D. Like you would have to cut taxes, personal
16:55
S2: income taxes fairly deeply to offset the sort of increase
16:57
S2: in GST that that Josh Frydenberg was talking about. That
17:01
S2: puts a huge hole in a budget that is already
17:05
S2: in trouble. The opposition's already said we're opposed to, say
17:09
S2: negative gearing, capital gains trusts. That's about $90 billion worth
17:14
S2: of revenue that they haven't filled out yet in terms
17:16
S2: of how they're going to pay for that.
17:18
S1: If they were to reverse those changes, if.
17:20
S2: They were.
17:20
S1: To reverse them.
17:21
S2: And when you start describing this as the worst budget
17:23
S2: of all time, that these these taxes are an affront
17:26
S2: to humanity and the life of every cat and dog
17:30
S2: going around. It's hard to say, see how you go
17:33
S2: to the next election and say, oh, we'll keep them
17:35
S2: like it would. It would seem more than passing strange. Anyway,
17:37
S2: back to Josh Frydenberg. Um, yeah. Like I actually see
17:42
S2: it more as a toe dipping exercise, whether there's a
17:46
S2: role back for him into the federal parliament, which I
17:50
S2: think everybody has, has thought he he hasn't made a decision,
17:54
S2: will he? Won't he at the next election? One, he
17:57
S2: has to. One, he has to get preselected. Two, he
17:59
S2: has to find a seat to get into. Three he
18:00
S2: has to get re-elected. And then you're coming into an opposition,
18:05
S2: likely an opposition, an opposition. Given the polling like that.
18:09
S2: Angus Taylor is not.
18:11
S1: Prime minister.
18:12
S2: Based on his polling numbers.
18:13
S1: Even even if he was to contest Kooyong. And I mean,
18:16
S1: if he can, if he would almost certainly win preselection
18:19
S1: for Kooyong. And then was he to contest it? Was
18:22
S1: he to win back his seat? He might be sitting
18:24
S1: in a party room, a Liberal Party room of, I
18:26
S1: don't know, 15 MPs or something based on current assumptions?
18:30
S2: Well, he'd have a frontbench spot lined up straight away,
18:33
S2: but like he's more he's more general point, which like
18:38
S2: apart from, say, tax about the fact that the Liberal
18:42
S2: Party has to find a way to connect with voters
18:45
S2: in metropolitan Australia. That absolute like if you're looking at
18:50
S2: Angus Taylor at the moment, like I was talking to
18:52
S2: one of the teal independents this week who pointed out
18:56
S2: like they have given up everything on, on say on
18:59
S2: the environment. Like they don't, the Liberal Party really doesn't
19:03
S2: have a net zero or a climate policy that you
19:06
S2: could poke a stick at.
19:07
S1: Their policy is abandonment of net zero. That's pretty much it.
19:10
S2: That's about it. How does that how does that play
19:13
S2: in a seat like Wentworth or Kooyong or even in Goldstein,
19:17
S2: where Tim Wilson retook that seat at the last election?
19:20
S2: That's a problem straight off.
19:23
S1: So yeah, I mean, Josh Frydenberg, it was refreshing to
19:26
S1: hear Josh Frydenberg like a liberal, a sort of respected
19:29
S1: liberal voice to say, hey guys, let's get real. There
19:31
S1: is no pathway back to government for us unless unless
19:34
S1: through the metropolitan seats and regaining popularity with younger voters.
19:38
S1: And I suppose the more moderate socially moderate anyway, Metropolitan voters.
19:44
S1: Is he the person to do that? That's another kind
19:46
S1: of question entirely. He is very much, I would say,
19:49
S1: an establishment candidate in an era where people are looking
19:52
S1: for anti-establishment candidates. And I mean, he couldn't be more
19:56
S1: Liberal Party establishment. And he's now, you know, the head
19:58
S1: of a of a major investment bank.
20:01
S2: But do you think it was refreshing because smaller Liberal
20:05
S2: voters in metropolitan Australia haven't heard that message for three,
20:10
S2: three and a half years.
20:11
S1: Yeah. And it's also we're kind of living in la
20:13
S1: la land. I think this is my opinion now, but
20:15
S1: we're living in la La land a little bit when
20:17
S1: the coalition just doesn't acknowledge that the electoral mathematics just
20:21
S1: don't work unless they get some of those metropolitan seats back,
20:24
S1: because that's where all the people live. You know, you
20:27
S1: can't you can't win enough party enough seats to, to
20:30
S1: form government just through the regionals and the Rurals and
20:34
S1: even the outer Suburbans. But I mean, I wanted to
20:37
S1: ask you because the other thing that Frydenberg has done
20:39
S1: is very much defend his legacy during Covid as treasurer,
20:42
S1: where he obviously spent so much money or his. His government,
20:46
S1: Scott Morrison's government spent so much money on JobSeeker and
20:50
S1: Job Keeper under advisement from a group of a group
20:55
S1: of people from Treasury. Yeah, from Treasury. And also, you know,
20:59
S1: people like Greg Combet. I mean, it was a really
21:01
S1: unprecedented sort of bipartisan sort of architecture. And he took
21:06
S1: that advice and spent the money. And John Howard this
21:09
S1: week launching his book sort of said, you know, I
21:11
S1: told Josh at the time, forget all the old restraints. Like,
21:14
S1: this is an unprecedented situation. Did he do the right thing?
21:18
S1: And more broadly, do you think he was a good treasurer,
21:20
S1: like in the in the span of treasurers that you've
21:23
S1: seen in your time in Parliament?
21:25
S2: Oh, God. That's a long list of people I know.
21:27
S1: But but where does he stand? Where does he stand?
21:30
S1: He did a good thing during Covid. He kept he
21:32
S1: kept the economy. You know, he kept us afloat. You've
21:35
S1: got to give him that credit. Right?
21:37
S2: Oh you do. There were mistakes like Job keeper. The
21:40
S2: fact that that businesses were exploiting it and, and weren't
21:46
S2: called and said, hey, pay back the money. That's that
21:49
S2: hangs out as a big mistake. The other big mistake
21:51
S2: I think was actually around superannuation, allowing people to tap super.
21:55
S2: That was that ended up being the second largest stimulus measure,
22:00
S2: and they didn't have control of it and they didn't understand.
22:04
S2: You can still see it today in the argument within
22:06
S2: the Liberal Party about superannuation and the fact that when
22:09
S2: people get access to super, they spend it, they and.
22:13
S1: Not not always in very sensible.
22:15
S2: Things. Well, the biggest increase during Covid was on gambling. Yeah. Through.
22:19
S2: And you can see and there was analysis done that showed. Yep.
22:24
S2: That's where a lot of that super money ended up
22:26
S2: being gambled away in terms of what he did at
22:29
S2: that point. Like you, you could be overly you could
22:32
S2: be overly critical. And I, but I always come back
22:34
S2: to and this is why I always maintained that Scott
22:36
S2: Morrison also did a pretty reasonable job in horrendous situation,
22:40
S2: a horrendous situation where you're thinking is, how are we
22:43
S2: going to lose tens, hundreds of thousands of people to
22:47
S2: be killed by a virus? I think you have in
22:50
S2: over in general, you go, yes, he did. He did
22:53
S2: a pretty reasonable job. The problems were in terms of
22:57
S2: other things. And this got exposed in the 2223 budget
23:01
S2: period where there was so many things that he left undone,
23:04
S2: which the new government always come back to say how
23:07
S2: much money was had not been saved, had been saved
23:11
S2: by not giving it to veterans who were deserving of
23:14
S2: of their pension payments. The the government and, you know,
23:18
S2: aged care, like the government had.
23:20
S1: Been pushing that.
23:21
S2: Putting.
23:21
S1: Other things to kind of fix when they got in
23:23
S1: because they'd been underfunded by the Morrison government.
23:25
S2: But that was also been was also part of the
23:28
S2: problem of say that the tax package like the this
23:31
S2: the three the three point tax package, which was originally
23:34
S2: Scott Morrison's plan, he got left with it. And ultimately,
23:39
S2: some of the changes that the some of the policy changes.
23:43
S2: And that added to the inflation problem that that that
23:46
S2: the government had to deal with in terms of all
23:47
S2: other treasurers. Look, I, I don't I don't think he's
23:52
S2: a George Turner, who was the first treasurer and who
23:55
S2: had four budgets. And he did a pretty reasonable job.
23:57
S2: The the country got by. He's not in a he's
24:00
S2: not in a Keating Costello sort of Chifley level of achievement,
24:08
S2: but I, I actually bracket him more with, say, Wayne
24:11
S2: Swan in terms of the fact.
24:13
S1: Wayne Swan did the GFC.
24:15
S2: He had a GFC, really difficult situation. And in Swan's case,
24:20
S2: we had like we hadn't seen a financial crisis in,
24:26
S2: in like decades. Josh Frydenberg cops the first pandemic in
24:31
S2: more than a century. Yeah, so really, really difficult on them.
24:36
S2: So it's easy to be critical, but I think for
24:40
S2: both of them, they had to make tough choices and people.
24:44
S2: And ultimately, in both cases, Australia got through quite well.
24:48
S2: So people forget, oh, in GFC the expectation was like,
24:53
S2: that's the swan budget of 2009 is the only budget
24:57
S2: ever to forecast a recession that I can remember. It
25:01
S2: didn't happen. We avoided a recession. Australia during Covid. Yes,
25:06
S2: there was a recession, but it was really weird. One
25:09
S2: where huge collapse in economic activity brought about by the
25:13
S2: government and then a real big bounce back. And I
25:15
S2: think they're both. That's why I think I bracket Swan,
25:18
S2: and I don't think either would like being bracketed together.
25:21
S1: With the with the other.
25:22
S2: No, they would not.
25:23
S1: But but but we're doing it anyway.
25:25
S2: We're doing it anyway because I think yeah I think yeah.
25:28
S2: And you've got the the Friday the Monday morning quarterbacks
25:32
S2: complaining about X, Y, Z dismissing What's going on in
25:37
S2: terms of the absolute uncertainty that both these treasurers faced
25:41
S2: at very different types, but not things that you're coming
25:46
S2: to office. Josh Frydenberg, like remember Josh Frydenberg in December 2019.
25:51
S2: He's he's got the back in black coffee mugs.
25:54
S1: Oh yeah.
25:55
S2: And then we ran into a bushfire and then we
25:57
S2: ran into a pandemic.
25:58
S1: Do you have one of those Shane.
26:00
S2: Because sadly I don't.
26:02
S1: Sadly I don't make some money. Well well I mean.
26:05
S2: The Liberal Party pulled them from their their website pretty quickly.
26:09
S1: That's right. They're out of circulation, out of stock. I
26:13
S1: do feel sorry for politicians sometimes because as you say,
26:16
S1: with Wayne Swan and Josh Frydenberg and even to an extent,
26:19
S1: Scott Morrison, who was so unpopular, they don't get credit
26:21
S1: for crisis, crisis averted and the horrible things that didn't
26:25
S1: happen on their watch, perhaps because of.
26:27
S2: I.
26:27
S1: Didn't get.
26:27
S2: Hit, I didn't get hit by that bus. And so
26:30
S2: I just kept walking down the street.
26:31
S1: Yeah. And nobody ever thinks nobody ever thanks you. That's right. Shane,
26:35
S1: thank you so much for sharing many facts and also
26:38
S1: some feelings with us today. It's been a pleasure and fun.
26:41
S2: I'm pretty. It's sad that I felt any. I showed
26:44
S2: any feelings. I prefer to stick with facts. You know that.
26:46
S2: Just facts.
26:47
S1: We're full of passion on this podcast. It's good. Thank you.
26:50
S1: And we'll see you again soon.
26:52
S2: Can't wait.
26:58
S1: You can read all of our political news on our website.
27:00
S1: Dot com.au or sm.com.au. Today's episode was produced by Kai
27:06
S1: Wong with help from Debbie Harrington. Our executive producer is
27:10
S1: Tammy Mills, and our podcasts are overseen by Lisa Muxworthy
27:13
S1: and Tom McKendrick. Before you go, follow Inside Politics and
27:18
S1: leave a review for us on Apple or Spotify. I'm
27:21
S1: Jacqueline Maley, thank you for listening.