Latest / CattleUSA Daily / 190: Why This Year’s Weather Pattern Has Meteorologists Talking with Gary Lezak

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190: Why This Year’s Weather Pattern Has Meteorologists Talking with Gary Lezak · CattleUSA Daily

• 0:00
  What is going on in the world of the weather this week?
• 0:03
  We are breaking all of that down today on the podcast with Gary
• 0:06
  Lezak. He is the founder and owner of
• 0:09
  Weather 2020. Weather 2020 is a long term
• 0:13
  weather predictive software where Gary takes his LRC, the
• 0:18
  Lezak recurring cycle that he discovered many years ago in his
• 0:23
  meteorology career when he was still in Kansas City and has
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  made it into a software where we can look out months in advance
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  and see what the weather is doing right now.
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  The weather pattern is actually setting up for this next year,
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  which is really exciting and Gary is breaking all of that
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  down for us today and just what is happening in the cycle, in
• 0:43
  the weather, some high, high level things that are going on
• 0:47
  as far as all that is concerned. Before we hop into this episode,
• 0:49
  Gary, if you are watching on YouTube, make sure that you are
• 0:52
  subscribed and you like this episode.
• 0:54
  If you are listening on any of our podcast platforms, make sure
• 0:56
  that you are following the podcast and if you could take a
• 0:58
  second to go rate and review it, we would really appreciate it
• 1:01
  here at the team. Without further ado, let's go
• 1:03
  ahead and hear from Gary. Welcome to the Cattle USA Daily
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  podcast, your go to source for the latest livestock markets,
• 1:13
  industry insights and the update shaping agriculture today.
• 1:17
  I'm your host, Lauren Moylan, a passionate advocate for
• 1:20
  agriculture here to keep you informed and connected.
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  Now let's dive into today's episode.
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  Gary, welcome back to the podcast.
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  Good morning. Good morning, Lauren.
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  How are you? I am doing great, Gary.
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  Do you want to know what I impulsively did last night?
• 1:41
  You impulsively did what? What?
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  What is? Yeah.
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  Tell me about. I can't wait.
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  I signed up for 1/2 marathon in April.
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  No way have you done 1/2 marathon?
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  No. Have you done a 10K?
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  No. Have you done a 5K?
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  Not in a while. So 5K is 10K is 6.3 and 5K is
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  3.1 miles I. Did that yesterday.
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  OK, 10K is 6.2 miles. Yeah, you haven't done any yet?
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  No, I haven't raced to 10K yet. OK, well when I when I I hadn't
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  done 6 miles before and I did my first 10K way back when and it
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  took an hour and 4 minutes for me to do 6 miles.
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  When you think about it, that's 610 minute miles, which isn't
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  bad at all, especially now at my age right now it would take me
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  twice as long so I'd walk half the way, but but that's 10.
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  If you can get to the 10K, yes, then you'll be able to get to
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  the half marathon. Yes, that was my thought.
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  So like it's in, it's in April, it's in Olathe, it's Garmin
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  headquarters are in Olathe. And so it's the what did they
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  call it? It's the it's Land of the Land
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  of Oz marathon or something like that.
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  They've been doing it for a really long time.
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  So they do offer a 5K10K half marathon in full marathon.
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  And so I was like, I'm just going to do the half marathon
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  and I'm going to try and find a 10K between now and then to do
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  as well. And we'll see if I get my
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  husband convinced to do the Turkey Trot, OK?
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  You can do, that's what. I did a 5K yesterday in my
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  training. Like I ran a 5K yesterday, so
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  that's good. I was a runner in high school,
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  but I was not a distance runner. I was actually a sprinter and
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  track. And so this is definitely
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  something new for me. But I wanted like I was like, I
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  want something challenging that I have to work towards and that
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  has an end goal, right? So I was like, and obviously now
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  my TikTok is all running stuff. And so then last night I
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  impulsively was like, sign up. Like if I don't sign up right
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  now, I'm going to talk myself out of it.
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  So I signed up for it. And now, April 25th, if anyone
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  wants to see me absolutely die at a finish line, come to
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  Olathe. Half man, you'll be able to see
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  that. And then, hey, they have beer at
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  the finish line, too. And that's the day after my
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  birthday, the day after my birthday.
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  So I'll remember that day. Amazing, amazing.
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  Hey, we'll talk about the weather and the pattern
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  developing in a second, but I want to thank you for the
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  sourdough that I got sent in the mail.
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  I got it last week and Andy even shared and enjoyed it.
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  He thought it was good, good sourdough bread and, and so that
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  was great. And then I did something
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  amazing. I was down to, you know, it's
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  been a week. How long does this sourdough
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  last? A week maybe.
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  Longer if you keep it in the fridge I.
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  Should have, Yeah, but I didn't. I didn't know to keep it in the
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  fridge. Yeah, oops.
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  So. So as it looks like it's ready
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  to be done, I was like, huh, I know what I'll do with it.
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  So what I did last night, because I've got this Caesar
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  salad and stuff, I needed croutons.
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  So I made croutons out of the sourdough.
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  Look, that's such a good idea. That looks so yummy.
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  I made, I made I just what I doused them in ghee butter, OK,
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  this ghee Himalayan sea salt butter and just a little, just a
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  little bit, two or three tablespoons and then I heated it
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  up for like 15 minutes at 450°. Oh, that sounds amazing.
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  Lauren's sourdough croutons. I am going to have to go make
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  some croutons with I have right now that.
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  Sounds, my God, the flavor that special.
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  Whatever that you do, the flavor is just now just like it gets to
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  the back of your tongue and it's really good.
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  Yay, I'm so happy that you guys loved it.
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  It's that I only have this one. We left but I was like I know
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  what I'll do with it. I can't believe never one that I
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  did it without any recipe, that I'd make croutons a year ago,
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  but I burnt them all. So I made sure I didn't do that.
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  But my gosh, because it had been sitting out for a week almost,
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  it was ready to turn into croutons.
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  Words done, you know. Oh my gosh, I love it.
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  That's amazing. I'm so happy you.
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  Got. Something and you shared with
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  Andy. You didn't hog it all.
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  You didn't like stash it away anywhere?
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  It was he came home like 2 nights, three nights ago.
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  He goes, is that bread any good? I go, yes, it's amazing here and
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  I kind of at peace for because he was having dinner and he
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  didn't have any carbs, so he just had that.
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  There you go. That's perfect.
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  Thank you very much everyone. Lauren Sourdough is worth
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  1,000,000 bucks. Hey, you heard it here first.
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  You heard it here first guys. Gary, that's amazing.
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  That's so kind of you. I appreciate it so much.
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  Well, on the note of the weather, what's going on in the
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  world of weather right now, I can tell you that in Kansas it
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  hasn't stopped raining. So I'm excited to talk about the
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  pattern and everything. It's, it's interesting, it's
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  hard to tell, you know right now that what happens with the LRC,
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  remember it evolves and sets up beginning around when the
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  sunsets at the North Pole on September the 22nd this year.
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  Then about a dozen days later is October the 5th, In October, the
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  5th or 6th or so, it goes dark at the North Pole and that's
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  where we consider it day one of the LRC.
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  It's not just that because it turns dark at the North Pole.
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  Maybe it's a coincidence, maybe not.
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  I don't think it is, but energy shifts from the North Pole
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  across the Northern hemisphere, and it's now going down across
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  the Gulf into the Caribbean where we just had the major
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  hurricane. It's the pattern evolves so but
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  it's now late October, Halloween, we're getting to into
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  November. The time changes this weekend,
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  Saturday night on November early, the earliest it can
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  possibly be basically November 1st night, November 2nd, we'll
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  gain an hour. It's great.
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  That's a whole other story, but it's usually not till November
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  15th or 30th when I really can start putting my finger on
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  what's going on with this weather pattern.
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  Yes, it's been wet from the Nebraska border S to Wichita.
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  It has been a fairly wet two or three weeks, cloudy and drizzly
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  and some rain. But the pattern is quite
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  bizarre. The storm system that just came
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  across is kicking out what's left of Hurricane Melissa, which
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  was a disaster for Jamaica, went across Cuba, going across the
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  Bahamas, out in the Atlantic where it's going to die.
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  That hurricane is very different than the ones that were at this
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  point last year. Last year in November we had
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  Hurricane Raphael. It came across the Cuba West
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  part of Cuba. Just miss.
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  Jamaica went into the Gulf of Mexico and it died there in the
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  middle of the Gulf. So last year's hurricane died.
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  This year's didn't die. It blasted Jamaica and it's
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  still alive and it's going out in the Atlantic.
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  There's something about that, which means next hurricane
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  season may be worse for the United States.
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  So something just to keep in mind.
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  But bottom line is for us, the pattern setting up, it's good
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  that it's rained in Kansas the last 25 days or the 1st 25 days
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  of this year's cycling pattern. The evidence is good for Kansas
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  into Nebraska, but all around it, it's been drier.
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  So we still have a lot more to look at before we make any
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  conclusions in our weather vision dashboard, the weather
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  2020 vision dashboard, the model just updated last Saturday
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  night. We're doing another big update
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  in mid November on this dashboard.
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  Every farmer, every cattle rancher should have this tool.
• 9:44
  If you can afford 1200 bucks for the whole year, you can have
• 9:49
  this weather tool where you can see which weeks will be wet,
• 9:53
  which weeks will be dry. And it goes down to day by day.
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  But it really works as a week by week basis to get a little more
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  general. But it tells you which weeks
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  will be wet, which weeks will be dry, Is it going to be cold or
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  warm? And, and you get to go down to
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  your county, to your farm, to your ranch and see what the
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  weather pattern is in the forecast for the year ahead.
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  It goes all the way to planting, growing and harvest of next
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  year. The data that's in there at this
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  moment is still pulling from last year's pattern.
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  But by mid November, late November, early December, it
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  starts to transition to what the forecast actually will be.
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  So I highly recommend getting that.
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  Having that as a tool will show you how to use it, and then
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  that'll always be in your back pocket to start planning for
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  when you want to plant. Or maybe you're going to have a
• 10:49
  planting date and at least you'll know what the weather
• 10:51
  conditions are most like. They're going to be weeks in
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  advance so you can prepare anyway.
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  It's fascinating. It's that fascinating time of
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  the year where the LRC is still evolving, Lauren.
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  And this is the difference between what we have and no one
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  else in the world has. They don't understand the
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  pattern of cycling regularly and I understand why they don't
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  going to. Why doesn't anybody else do it?
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  Well, a lot of farmers have been following us for the last few
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  years know that we've gotten it forecast right for the last four
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  years for the agriculture belt from western NE and Kansas all
• 11:26
  the way to Ohio four years in a row, we've gotten it right.
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  Others don't get it right, ever. I mean, maybe one out of 10/2
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  out of 10. They might get one by being
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  lucky. They're not using what we're
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  using, which is the cycling knowledge of the cycling
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  pattern. It is far from perfect, but
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  overall it's a great tool. Yeah.
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  So we're three weeks into the weather pattern setting up.
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  What are your thoughts so far? And then how much longer do what
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  you anticipate we have or what's the range that we have
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  potentially left as well? Well, three or four more weeks,
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  maybe 6 more weeks by early December.
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  I don't issue our winter forecast from weather 2020 until
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  the 1st week of December and I'll provide you hints between
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  now and then. The reason is we really need to
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  see what this whole first cycle is, because if I make
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  conclusions now, I'll probably be wrong.
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  If I make conclusions in the mid November or even late November,
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  I may be wrong. And by early December, we know
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  enough where we likely will be right.
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  And then by mid-december, late December and early January, very
• 12:39
  highly probably will be right at that point.
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  So it's a little early now, but the early results are showing a
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  very weird and unique weather pattern that I've never seen
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  before the storm, by the way, the Hurricane Melissa that
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  became a historic Category 5 hurricane with 185 mile per hour
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  sustained winds gusting to 250 mph.
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  So I'm sure there's near the coast of Jamaica.
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  I'm sure there's this total devastation and then that
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  tracked off to the north and now it's getting kicked out.
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  It's accelerating across the Atlantic and dying as it gets
• 13:18
  wrapped into a storm. A hurricane looks big.
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  It is big. It's a one of the strongest
• 13:24
  storms on earth. All all argue that tornadoes get
• 13:27
  stronger, but they're just smaller.
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  So the hurricane is getting flicked out to sea now by the
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  storm that came into Kansas and Nebraska the last couple of
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  days. That storm is intensifying and
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  moving into the eastern part of the country.
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  And that storm is much bigger than a hurricane and it's
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  flicking the hurricane out. It's kicking it out, as we call
• 13:50
  it. And so the hurricane is dying
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  and getting absorbed into what we call the jet stream in the
• 13:57
  upper level flow. So fascinating.
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  So I'm being way too scientific today.
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  Hey, no, I love it. Give me the nitty gritty
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  details. This is amazing.
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  I, I am here for it. Absolutely.
• 14:09
  It's definitely been an interesting month here in Kansas
• 14:13
  as I've like what he told our listeners at the beginning of
• 14:16
  October. Like, hey, just be observant.
• 14:19
  Be observant. What is happening in your
• 14:21
  region? Are you wet?
• 14:23
  Are you dry? Are you like getting wind storms
• 14:27
  or lots of like lightning and thunderstorms?
• 14:30
  Like what? Just kind of analog that in the
• 14:32
  back of your head. And it's been fascinating what
• 14:35
  has been happening over the past few weeks.
• 14:38
  And it does since we have had such a wet wheat care in Kansas,
• 14:43
  or at least where I am in North Central Kansas, it is a, it's
• 14:47
  making me think we've got those ice storms coming.
• 14:50
  We've got those snow storms coming that you were talking
• 14:52
  about. Like, boy, here we go.
• 14:55
  And I signed up for 1/2 marathon in April.
• 14:57
  So guess who's going to be running outside in the middle of
• 15:00
  the snow? Well, the LRC with the global,
• 15:03
  the global predictor, everyone can have that for just 595 a
• 15:07
  month, 599 a month for 4999, for the entire year.
• 15:12
  If you download the global predictor from your App Store,
• 15:15
  put in your credit card information and login, you will
• 15:18
  get the forecast for the next 6 months and it goes to April 25th
• 15:22
  right now in Olathe. Should I look and see what it
• 15:24
  has? Yes, see what it has for April
• 15:26
  25th in Olathe. That would be look real quick.
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  Wonderful because I hope that it is not frigid or snowing.
• 15:35
  It is. Or it's April in Kansas.
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  I know, so I'm pulling it up. I'm not super confident, but I'm
• 15:45
  hopeful. OK, so here we are, Weather
• 15:49
  2020, 2020.com and I've got the global predictor.
• 15:53
  You can do it straight from our website.
• 15:54
  Once you get it in the App Store or through our website, go to
• 15:57
  weather2020.com is click on Global Predictor Pro.
• 16:01
  You go to Olathe where you're having your, you're having your
• 16:05
  10K. You click on Olathe, you click
• 16:08
  on April and it shows a high of 74°.
• 16:13
  You can be. Down for that.
• 16:14
  A low of 54, so in the morning of 54 and any precipitation, no
• 16:20
  rain on the 25th, but it has rain on the 26th.
• 16:23
  So we have to watch that closely.
• 16:24
  OK, OK. I can, you know what that
• 16:27
  temperature is actually great because we start at, we start at
• 16:29
  the start line at 6:30 that morning.
• 16:34
  And so high of 70 is great because that means by the time
• 16:38
  I'm done with my race, it'll start to warm up.
• 16:40
  But it's not going to be like 30° at the start line.
• 16:44
  And I'm going to have to have my husband meet me at different
• 16:47
  checkpoints throughout the race so that I can shed all of my 100
• 16:50
  layers that I'm going to have on.
• 16:52
  You won't have to wear a lot of layers.
• 16:54
  If it's 54° in the morning, you'll be fine.
• 16:56
  Exactly, exactly. I can.
• 16:58
  I can push through that one. Layer, you said it was February
• 17:02
  the 25th. We'd have another conversation.
• 17:04
  Yeah, we definitely would be having a very, very different
• 17:07
  conversation about that. I probably wouldn't have
• 17:09
  impulsively signed up for that. Yeah.
• 17:12
  I'm not that crazy, Gary, unless it was like in the Caribbean or
• 17:16
  in like somewhere very warm in February.
• 17:20
  You could convince me of that. But.
• 17:23
  Why did you decide to do a half marathon and not a full
• 17:26
  marathon? I figured I should start with a
• 17:28
  half marathon and then I'll go to a full marathon, but I have
• 17:32
  six months. I feel like I can train
• 17:34
  successfully without burning myself out.
• 17:38
  Because that's the thing. Like sometimes I'll find a new
• 17:40
  hobby and then I'll like burn myself out of it.
• 17:42
  So I still want to enjoy running.
• 17:45
  And so I was like, let's start with a half marathon.
• 17:47
  I've got six months. I feel like that's enough time
• 17:49
  to train for 1/2. And then depending on how the
• 17:52
  half goes, if I enjoy it and I had fun in the training and all
• 17:55
  of that jazz, then I'll sign up for the full marathon in the
• 17:57
  fall. I don't think anybody normal
• 18:00
  people are like, how are you going to have fun in this
• 18:03
  training for 13 miles? Oh my God, for for you're going
• 18:07
  to run for hours and hours and hours.
• 18:09
  It's like, that doesn't sound like fun to me.
• 18:11
  You know what sounds like fun is eating some of your sourdough
• 18:14
  croutons. Look at those croutons.
• 18:17
  Isn't that amazing? Hey, you know what?
• 18:19
  The more I run the aerobic exercise, the more sourdough
• 18:23
  bread and croutons I can eat. Here comes the flavour.
• 18:26
  Oh, there it is. You and Andy can come to Kansas
• 18:30
  City for your birthday weekend and you can sit in the beer
• 18:34
  garden and hang out and eat some bread and have some carbs.
• 18:39
  Maybe go to a restaurant down the road.
• 18:41
  I mean, you're going to have a lot of hours.
• 18:42
  Before. Between the time I start and the
• 18:44
  time I finish, eat all the carbs, enjoy the views of Kansas
• 18:48
  City, and I'll meet you at the end and you can cheer me on from
• 18:52
  a seated position. That's a deal.
• 18:55
  Maybe I'll do that. Perfect, perfect.
• 18:59
  Well, Gary, is there anything else that we need to hit?
• 19:01
  On in. That's it for today.
• 19:03
  I just hope everyone has a good weekend.
• 19:05
  The LRC is setting up, you're in on this big secret, and I have a
• 19:08
  lot more to share with you, but it's just a few weeks away.
• 19:12
  We'll tell you what new insights we have next week, but right now
• 19:16
  it's still evolving. I love it.
• 19:20
  Amazing, amazing. Well, Gary, thank you for your
• 19:22
  time. To all of our listeners out
• 19:23
  there, make sure you check out the show notes down below.
• 19:25
  If you want to get your hands on the global predictor, the
• 19:28
  Weather 2020 dashboard for all of our farmers and ranchers out
• 19:31
  there. We've got all of those links
• 19:33
  down below for you guys and we even have an exclusive discount
• 19:36
  for that vision dashboard as well.
• 19:38
  Gary Sub Stack is below where if you enjoy the like nitty gritty,
• 19:43
  Gary explaining everything at really high detail but making it
• 19:46
  understandable, that is down below as well where you can get
• 19:50
  a hold of that sub stack newsletter that Gary puts out as
• 19:53
  well. And then all of Gary's social
• 19:55
  medias with Gary. I have, I think I have more
• 19:57
  links for you down below than I do for anyone else, like even
• 19:59
  for myself. So I mean, if you just can't get
• 20:02
  enough of Gary, make sure you check out the shows.
• 20:04
  And if you have 1/2 marathon coming up in six months, get the
• 20:08
  global predictor because it will be your friend as you will
• 20:11
  continue to prepare for all life has in store.
• 20:14
  So Gary, thank you for your time to all of our listeners.
• 20:16
  We will see you all tomorrow on another episode.
• 20:18
  Have a good one.