Latest / Beyond Fulfillment Podcast / AI, M&A, and the Next Wave in Logistics; Expert Insights from Ben Gordon
Transcript
- 0:05And I think that's the definition of a great deal.
- 0:07Everybody benefits from it.
- 0:09It's not just one side wins and the other loses.
- 0:12No, it's actually one where there's a compelling exit for the sellers, but the buyers still have plenty of upside, plenty of opportunity, or as they say, plenty of meat on the bone for what comes next.
- 0:24In this special edition episode, we sit down with Ben Gordon, an industry leader in supply chain investment and innovation.
- 0:32Ben is the founder and Managing partner of Cambridge Capital, one of the largest private equity firms focused on supply chain and logistics, and the driving force behind bgsa, a specialized investment banking firm.
- 0:47With an impressive track record of building and investing in logistics companies.
- 0:52Ben's work consistently shapes the industry's future.
- 0:56In today's episode, we discuss the state of MA in the supply chain world as of mid 2025 as Ben shares real world insights from the impressive exit of Green Screens AI, which he co founded.
- 1:09We'll also talk about the market dynamics of predictive pricing and why the best logistics companies are often bought, not sold.
- 1:18We'll get Ben's take on market trends, what excites him about AI and specialized logistics, and we'll hear practical advice for anyone considering acquisitions or exits in this fast changing industry.
- 1:32You don't want to miss this strategic playbook from a true supply chain insider.
- 1:37As always, if you found value from this content, please like and subscribe.
- 1:42All right, Ben Gordon, welcome back to Beyond Fulfillment.
- 1:47Dave, thanks and great to be with you again.
- 1:49Absolutely.
- 1:50So, Ben, we have a special edition today where we're talking about the state of M and A within supply chain specifically.
- 1:59And right now we're recording this in late June of 2025.
- 2:03So I just wanted to recap some of the events we've seen already and then get your perspective on the market at large.
- 2:12For those that may not know, you're the founder of Cambridge Capital, which is one of the largest private equity firms within the supply chain industry, as well as BG sa, the investment banking firm.
- 2:26And I wanted to start too with just a recent deal that you were a big part of with the Green Screens AI.
- 2:32You were a co founder there and they just had a phenomenal exit which is just about two months old, if I'm not mistaken.
- 2:38Is that right?
- 2:39Yes, exactly.
- 2:40Yeah.
- 2:41Can you tell us about that deal, how it came about?
- 2:44Sure, Glad to.
- 2:46So, Dave, as you know, there's a lot happening in the realm of AI technology and innovation in supply chain, and one of the areas that's particularly important is predictive pricing.
- 2:57So whether you're a truck broker or shipper or carrier, pricing is the lifeblood of the business.
- 3:03It's something that you rely on.
- 3:04It's like oxygen in the air.
- 3:06That is, it's just, it permeates everything that you do.
- 3:10So, and of course, we've just lived through record volatility over the last five years, first with the spikes during COVID then the plunges during the Great Freight Recession.
- 3:20And one lesson that I think everybody has learned is in times of volatility, data and analytics can give you a competitive advantage.
- 3:29What Green Screens was formed to do was become the market leader in AI powered predictive pricing.
- 3:36What should it cost today, right now at 11 o' clock to ship a truckload of freight from Chicago to Atlanta?
- 3:42And what Green Screens figured out was they could train a data model using billions of dollars of freight spend and some brilliant AI engineers that had previously worked at Yandex, among others, and create a much more accurate real
- 4:00time system for pricing.
- 4:01And in a world where there was incumbent pricing, particularly by DAT and others, that would give you a snapshot, but that tended to be a lagging indicator, trailing, it would tell you what the average was, say over the
- 4:14last month instead of right this very moment.
- 4:17And it tended to be only as good as the data that you used to form the basis for your assumption.
- 4:23So if you were looking at a pool of data that was in a spot market that was self selecting because that, that was the volume that was moved in a spot market because it didn't move through pre existing
- 4:34contractual rates, you, you by definition had a subset of the market.
- 4:38So there were errors and, and inconsistencies.
- 4:41And what one of Green Screen's customers figured out was using Green Screens allowed them to slash that error rate by 5x, which was a huge advantage.
- 4:51So if you could price more accurately and more quickly, you could not only make better decisions, but you could also push those decisions to the front lines, to your people so they can make real time decisions instead of
- 5:02having to go up the chain for multiple approvals every time.
- 5:05So that was very valuable.
- 5:07But it turned out it wasn't only valuable for Green Screen's customers, it was also valuable for other people in the data and analytics world.
- 5:14So, you know, over the last couple of years, there were multiple companies that reached out and expressed interest in the business.
- 5:20And you know, the general answer was Green Screens isn't for sale.
- 5:24But you're always willing to listen and have a conversation because, you know, we're all capitalists at the end of the day.
- 5:30Right.
- 5:30So, you know, so we had the conversations, but we weren't focused on selling.
- 5:35Well, finally, we had a very interesting conversation with Aaron Graft, who's the CEO of Triumph, of course, the.
- 5:42The leading bank and financial institution for the transportation sector.
- 5:47$2 billion business focused on lending, factoring, and a host of other capabilities, whether it's for truck brokerage or transportation as a whole.
- 5:55And Aaron made an interesting point.
- 5:57He said, we understand how important pricing is.
- 6:00We understand how it fits into a broader ecosystem of analytics and intelligence, and we've decided that we've got to be there.
- 6:08So we're either going to be there with you as a partner or without you as a competitor.
- 6:14So, you know, maybe we'll buy you or maybe we'll compete with you.
- 6:18Naturally, I preferred the first option to the second.
- 6:22And so, you know, we began a dialogue, and that dialogue, you know, proceeded over a period of time, and it ultimately culminated in.
- 6:31In the deal that you referred to that was announced.
- 6:33And so that's the summary.
- 6:35So, happy to go into more detail on some of the nuances, but that's really the headline.
- 6:40Well, the multiple isn't public.
- 6:42The valuation was public.
- 6:43So I'll say this.
- 6:46The valuation for green screens was 160 million, and that valuation was set based on the LOI from December of last year.
- 6:57It was, of course, the basis for the deal that was signed in February and then which ultimately closed in May.
- 7:04Green Screen's revenue isn't public, although Triumph may at some point make.
- 7:10Make it public.
- 7:11I'll.
- 7:11I'll leave that to them to make that decision.
- 7:13I won't do that for them.
- 7:15But.
- 7:16But yeah, it was.
- 7:16It was a.
- 7:17A deal that I think everybody was happy with.
- 7:20We as shareholders of Green Screens were happy because we thought it was a good price for a great business that reflected the success, the value created and what was coming.
- 7:33But it also was a great deal for Triumph because it gave Triumph leadership in predictive pricing, which really gives you so much power in terms of all kinds of other analytic capabilities.
- 7:44If you think about it, if you have what Green Screens now has, which is over 30, approaching $40 billion of freight flung through the system, you could do all kinds of great things with that data.
- 7:55One, you, of course, could come up with better predictive pricing.
- 7:58But then, two, there are other analytical capabilities that can come out of that.
- 8:03And in fact, Triumph is building a whole intelligence business unit.
- 8:07And I'm delighted to share that Don, who is the CEO of Green Screens, is now running that entire intelligence business for Triumph.
- 8:17And I think it reflects well, first of all on Don, second of all on the rest of the team at green screens, and third of all, I think on the wisdom of the Triumph team to understand that this
- 8:28wasn't just about buying a business in technology, but also bringing on board a world class team.
- 8:35And I think all of those had value for Triumph.
- 8:38And I think those are all reasons why Triumph will continue to be very successful.
- 8:42And I say that as somebody who is now and expects to continue to be a material shareholder of Triumph for, you know, for the foreseeable future.
- 8:52So I'm, I'm of course fully aligned with that.
- 8:55So, so, you know, and I think that's the definition of a, of a great deal.
- 9:00Everybody benefits from it.
- 9:01It's not just one side wins and the other loses.
- 9:04No, it's actually one where there's a compelling exit for the sellers.
- 9:08But, but the buyers still have plenty of upside, plenty of opportunity, or as they say, plenty of meat on the bone for what comes next.
- 9:16Okay.
- 9:16And as someone that does this for a living, where you're always working on acquisition deals and in the space, how often do you see that scenario where you have a growing company that's not even thinking about selling and
- 9:31then someone comes along and makes them an offer they can't refuse and then a deal happens?
- 9:36Well, I think the best companies are bought and not sold.
- 9:41And this is a good illustration of that.
- 9:43So what does that mean?
- 9:45Best companies are bought, not sold?
- 9:47Because ultimately if you're doing something great and there's somebody else that gets real strategic value, then first of all, it should come from them.
- 9:57They should be the one that's interested and that recognizes it and reaches out.
- 10:01Second of all, you know, that should lead to a compelling outcome for everybody.
- 10:05That's not to say that if you have a great business and you hire a banker and you run a sale process that, that might not help you get to the best outcome possible.
- 10:15But on the other hand, if you have built something fantastic, let somebody else know about it.
- 10:24Let them take the initiative.
- 10:26As one of our clients from over 20 years ago, from early in the BGSA days, Eric Wilhelm like to say you should run the business like you're going to run it forever, but also you're prepared to sell it
- 10:39tomorrow.
- 10:40And I think those two things don't have to be in conflict.
- 10:44Right?
- 10:44Run it like you're going to run it forever, which means keep making the investments and being great.
- 10:49Doing something that's differentiated, that's focused on what produces Long term results, but on the other hand, be ready to sell it tomorrow.
- 10:57Meaning make sure that you're also focused on the metrics that an outside party would care about, that a buyer would care about.
- 11:04By the way, that's something that I get asked to do a lot of.
- 11:08Whether we end up buying a business as Cambridge Capital or whether we end up on the investment banking side at bgsa, helping a company to sell or maximize value, we often will take a look at a business and
- 11:22basically just do an assessment which is, okay, well what does it look like?
- 11:25And if, if there were going to be a deal today, you know, what would, what would be the things that we would care about, what would be the things that would be strengths and weaknesses, what would the dashboard
- 11:35look like?
- 11:36And then importantly, what would happen next?
- 11:38Meaning maybe everything's perfect, but more likely there are a lot of strengths, but then there are also some weaknesses or gaps to address.
- 11:47I mean, so for example, if you looked at green screens, early on, like a year after I got involved, green screens had great technology, but they also had lots of different product areas.
- 12:00And, and an obvious weakness was, especially when you're a startup, if you're doing everything, you're not going to do one thing really well.
- 12:07You just can't.
- 12:08And so the thing that green screens needed to do in the beginning was focus on the thing that was most valuable, which was predictive pricing, and then really become the best at it.
- 12:19Then if you looked at the business a year later, you would have found that they were fantastic at that and had done a great job, strong team, great technology, great early adopters.
- 12:30But you could say that, all right, the penetration is really small.
- 12:33How do you massively ramp that up and how do you build a repeatable process, which meant being able to integrate faster, expanding the sales team, having good customer success and the team and the ability to support that, and
- 12:48ultimately massively boosting the market penetration.
- 12:51And that worked and that produced growth.
- 12:53Then if you looked at the business a year later, you might say, hey, those are all great.
- 12:57But know, one criticism might be you're a one trick pony.
- 13:00You're great at the predictive pricing for spot market.
- 13:03But you know, do you want to get into, for example, you know, short term contract bids or do you want to get into some other adjacencies?
- 13:10And so, you know, I think at each point along the way, any company, no matter how successful they are, has to be thinking objectively.
- 13:18If there was an outside third party looking at the business, what would they like?
- 13:23What would they be concerned about and how do we turn those weaknesses into strengths.
- 13:26And I think, you know, the, the green screens journey is a really good example of that.
- 13:31Okay, and great point to, to segue into the next topic because you made, you made a comment earlier about that the best businesses are bought, not sold.
- 13:41And I'm sure you see this all the time.
- 13:43And I, I know of several companies that were up for sale and didn't get sold.
- 13:48And you know, the, the valuation there was a gap between right.
- 13:51What they had it priced at and maybe where are some of the biggest mistakes you see companies make when they're.
- 13:59Where they're attempting to sell?
- 14:02Well, I think one mistake is a lot of owners, particularly people that haven't gone through a deal process before, think that, number one, my company is so great it'll sell itself.
- 14:17And no company ever sells itself.
- 14:19It just, it, it doesn't, it takes work, it's hard.
- 14:22There's a lot of process intensive work.
- 14:25There's also the question of how do you tell the story in a compelling way that makes sense to a buyer?
- 14:31How do you educate them on it's not what you have that's so great.
- 14:35It's what's in it for them.
- 14:38The saying, it's trite.
- 14:40But trite expressions are often repeated for a reason because they're true.
- 14:45Everybody's favorite radio station is wifm, right?
- 14:49Or wiifm.
- 14:50What's in it for me?
- 14:52And so you've got to be able to tell your story in a way that resonates with the counterparty because what's in it for them is the thing that matters.
- 15:00So I think number one is, I think many people underestimate how hard it is, how much work it takes to be able to tell the story.
- 15:09Part of that's putting the data together, part of that's explaining what it means, and then part of that's being able to show what the next owner could do as a result.
- 15:17So I think that's probably number one.
- 15:22I think a second mistake or challenge that often comes up is a variation of that, which is what's great for you might not be great for the next guy.
- 15:32I'll give you an example.
- 15:35You know, Cambridge Capital is majority owner of a terrific company in the freight management business, truck brokerage company called Everest.
- 15:44Everest has scaled up nicely, recently made an acquisition of a company called simple, which we're very excited about.
- 15:52Looking at other deals.
- 15:54Of course, a lot of companies in freight brokerage have had a rough three years because of the freight recession.
- 15:59And so There are businesses that Everest has looked at and talked to that cumulatively may make a lot of money, but maybe it's concentrated in a particular industry, you know, or the particular customer or particular time of year.
- 16:15And, and you know, in aggregate, maybe that's great, right?
- 16:19Maybe in aggregate, you make, you know, plenty of money.
- 16:23But if you have risk or exposure because of those concentrations, whether in an industry or customer or a period of time, guess what?
- 16:31That presents risk.
- 16:32That makes it harder for a bank to finance.
- 16:36It presents risks for an owner, risks for an investor.
- 16:39And so again, it might be great for you, but you got to ask, well, what does it mean for somebody else?
- 16:45What does it mean for the counterparty?
- 16:47And so I think recognizing the importance of that is critical.
- 16:50And then the third thing that I would add is the importance of expectations.
- 16:57There are plenty of situations where people remember, and we're all human, right?
- 17:04We have selective memories.
- 17:05We remember the best things, and maybe that's what makes us optimists, but it also can set us up for failure.
- 17:15If you were a seller and you remembered valuations in 2021, during peak Covid, you saw record earnings and record multiples of earnings leading to record valuations for deals.
- 17:29But guess what?
- 17:30We're not in that market anymore.
- 17:32We're in 2025.
- 17:34But if your expectation is set and you're comparing yourself with 2021 numbers, guess what, you're always going to be disappointed.
- 17:41And so I think there is a, an important, let's just say, fundamental requirement that is, if you're going to go into a deal process and you don't have realistic expectations, you're more likely to be set up for failure.
- 17:59And you'd be better off looking at what the comps are and what's happening today and what's a reasonable foundation for it to expect today.
- 18:10And if that's not a reasonable expectation that you're happy with, well, then you shouldn't start the process.
- 18:16But reasonable expectations based on today and not selective points in time is pretty important as well.
- 18:24Do you see that particularly in, in this market where we've, like you said, we've been within the freight recession for the past three years and still people have memories of those boom times for during COVID I mean, do
- 18:36you see that as a big challenge where people, sellers particularly, don't have realistic expectations?
- 18:43Oh, definitely.
- 18:44And it reminds me of, say, freight markets in 2009 and 10.
- 18:50You know, the trucking recession really began in 2006, and then it cascaded through other areas of freight and Then ultimately the wider economy, but really that was 06 to 09.
- 19:03And then so if you had a truck brokerage or a freight business of any kind, 2009, 1011, 2009, the market was still depressed.
- 19:14But if you were remembering the good old days of 05 and 06, you didn't sell because you thought, hey, why would I sell at this multiple?
- 19:23You know, when, when the multiples were double that, you know, in 05 and 06 and my earnings were double that.
- 19:29So I'm taking a, a 4x discount if, if that's the way that somebody was, was framing it, but they weren't really taking a forex discount.
- 19:37The reality is that the business was probably not worth as much as it seemed to be in 05 or 06.
- 19:45But you know, we just didn't know at the time that that was a cyclical top.
- 19:48Right.
- 19:48So we're seeing the same thing now, which is that a lot of people who are in the freight industry might want to sell but aren't willing to now because of that comparison with that peak trough analysis that we're
- 20:05talking about now, the ones that have sold in the last couple of years, some of them have just been rational and willing to accept and embrace reality today, some of them have transacted for other reasons.
- 20:18Maybe just an owner is at a life stage where it makes sense or there's strategic factors.
- 20:24For instance, UPS divesting the Coyote Logistics division, rxo, because strategically it didn't make sense for UPS to be in that business anymore.
- 20:33But I would say that the vast majority of the owners of freight companies that I know who want to sell have held off on selling because of this variation.
- 20:45Okay.
- 20:45All right, so let's talk about the, the market, the logistics market specifically, you know, for, for the rest of the year, 2025.
- 20:54Clearly we've had some big deals already this year.
- 20:57What, where do you see, what do you see in the market coming up as far as trends and, you know, potential for this, this last half of the year?
- 21:07Yeah, so trends and expectations.
- 21:09So a couple things.
- 21:10Number one, I do think we're seeing a rebound in M and A activity as a whole.
- 21:16I think in particular we're seeing it in certain niche areas that are maybe a little bit more protected.
- 21:22I'll give you some examples, areas like flatbed or refrigerated or semiconductor logistics or other areas where there's just a little bit more of a differentiation or a moat in those categories that matters.
- 21:38And that's certainly one area where we're Seeing more activity.
- 21:41Two, of course, not just on the freight side, but on the tech side, AI in particular.
- 21:48Look, everything AI related is hot, A because of the hype cycle, B, because there's real impact.
- 21:56So AI powered companies, of which Green Screens is one example, can create a lot of value, create a lot of impact, automate workflow, help improve data and analytics and better decision making, et cetera.
- 22:09Third, of course, it's where there's a tremendous amount of venture capital funding.
- 22:14By some estimates, something like 80% of all early stage venture money is going into AI and AI related companies now.
- 22:21So more money leads to more activity, leads to more impact.
- 22:26So I think that's less about M and A, but it is more about capital markets activity.
- 22:31And then fourth, and finally, I would say that there is continuing interest in and value ascribed to productivity tools.
- 22:41If you think about it, if you're a freight company and you're coming out of this freight recession, you're a lot more interested in spending money on things that give you an immediate bottom line impact than you are investing
- 22:53in things that might take a year to produce some sort of a payoff.
- 22:56So productivity savings that are quick, again, you see a lot of interest that translates into investment.
- 23:03And that does also lead to some M and A activity.
- 23:06And we're seeing some.
- 23:07And you know, I'll tell you, you know, BGSA is working on a couple of companies in that realm right now.
- 23:11There's a terrific company in fleet management, AI powered fleet management software, for instance, that, that reflects that.
- 23:18So I think those are all areas where you're going to see more and more activity over the next few months.
- 23:23It wouldn't surprise me if the volume and value of deal activity in the second half of this year is a lot higher than the first half.
- 23:32Like, you know, 50% higher.
- 23:36Really?
- 23:36Yeah.
- 23:37Okay.
- 23:38All right.
- 23:38And what, seeing the overall market and being someone that's in this space and is, is constantly working on deals, what are you most excited about within supply chain, you know, in the acquisition space?
- 23:52Well, I'm excited about, so I'd say three things.
- 23:54One is AI powered businesses in different areas of supply chain.
- 23:58And you'll see that, you know, we'll announce some things, but we're, we're investing in some pretty interesting companies that are AI or AI powered companies in different areas of supply chain.
- 24:10Whether that's workflow, automation or better analytics or otherwise.
- 24:14It's just, it's an enormous market.
- 24:15There's so many areas of application and opportunity.
- 24:18So I think that's 1 2, I think very interested in niche applications where you could be the leader in a particular sector.
- 24:27So, I mean, just as an example, we invested in a company last year called stat.
- 24:32STAT helps brands, you know, CPG companies reduce the OTIF and other fees that, that they get charged from a Walmart or a Target or Home Depot or other retailers, you know, if they don't deliver on time and in
- 24:46full.
- 24:47Part of this is an auditing process.
- 24:49Part of this is a compliance process, part of this is a workflow improvement process.
- 24:54But the bottom line is STAT is using you know, AI, other software and services to help companies save tens of millions of dollars a year in some cases in this realm, you know, audit recovery and otherwise.
- 25:11That's pretty interesting.
- 25:12And it's a good example of going deep within a particular niche, adding a lot of value for customers, and then, you know, of course, being able to create value and reap the benefits of that.
- 25:21So niche specialization is a second area that I'm very interested.
- 25:25And then the third is, you know, putting our money where our mouth is.
- 25:28You know, we do think that we're coming out of the bottom of the freight cycle and, you know, starting to invest in companies in the freight arena and support that, whether it's things like the Everest acquisition with simple
- 25:39or, or other things that are similar to that.
- 25:42So I think those are three areas that I'm excited about.
- 25:45Where we're putting our money, where our mouth is.
- 25:48Okay.
- 25:49All right.
- 25:49And Ben, if, if companies are in the space and they want, you know, they want your opinion, they want your insights, or they want you to help them either potentially find an acquisition or get their own company ready
- 26:01to sell.
- 26:02What's the best way people can reach out to you?
- 26:05They can reach out to me directly.
- 26:07They can email me benambridgecapital.com or go to LinkedIn.
- 26:13Pretty easy to find, you know, @BenGordon18 is the handle.
- 26:19But, you know, there's, there's only one Ben Gordon at Cambridge Capital that you can easily, you know, find, you know, LinkedIn or website or otherwise.
- 26:29But yeah, look, I'm, I'm, you know, absolutely interested in and happy to help and be accessible to CEOs and leaders in supply chain that are, that are thinking about ideas, you know, whether, whether we're the right fit or
- 26:43not.
- 26:43Obviously, you know, we can only be the right fit for a, you know, small number of the many companies that are out there.
- 26:48But, you know, certainly happy to be available and accessible.
- 26:53And the other thing that I'll add, Dave, is we host an annual conference.
- 26:57This January will be our 20th annual supply chain CEO conference.
- 27:01It's here in sunny Palm beach at the breakers and January 21 to 23 and you know we host over 350 of the top CEOs and leaders in the sector.
- 27:11Great place for people to learn what's happening in the market.
- 27:14Great place to talk about ideas whether that's investment M and A strategic technology or otherwise.
- 27:23And certainly delighted to invite and include folks that would like to be a part of that as well.
- 27:29Okay.
- 27:30Yeah.
- 27:30And we'll put those links in the show notes as well as the link to your annual event.
- 27:34So.
- 27:34All right.
- 27:35Well Ben, thanks so much for being here taking time to share all these insights on the the supply chain market and the the M and A activity.
- 27:43We greatly appreciate it.
- 27:45Listen, Dave, thank you.
- 27:47Pleasure is mine as always and love talking with you and delighted to share whatever feedback I can with your audience.
- 27:55Okay.
- 27:55Thanks so much.
- 28:00Sam.