Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 531 - 6/15/26 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 531 - 6/15/26 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

• 0:01
  54321 all systems go with Josh Applebaum starts now Hello and
• 0:14
  welcome to episode 531 of the all systems go sports betting
• 0:20
  podcast powered by rhythm. I am your host, Josh Applebaum.
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  What's going on, everyone? Happy Monday.
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  A new week begins as we are officially halfway through the
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  month of June. And it's a bit of a transitional
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  phase here, guys, because we got NBA over with.
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  Congrats to the Knicks, anyone who had the Knicks, you know,
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  ride them throughout the year out of futures ticket.
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  And also Congrats to anyone who had the Carolina Hurricanes who
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  took down VGK. So with NBA and NHL now over
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  with, you know what that means guys.
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  We are full steam ahead on Major League Baseball now.
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  We've been grinding MLB from from the start.
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  But I do think sometimes when NBA and NHL ends, you know that
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  that is obviously post season and people are excited and
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  people want to bet it and you get the series, the back and
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  forth. Once that ends, you do see quite
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  a bit of transition from just public betters, general betters
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  going from NBA, NHL to MLB. They'll either switch over to
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  MLB because they want to bet on something in baseballs every
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  night. Maybe a few go to WNBA because
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  WNBA is really the only other sport going on right now.
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  Or they're going to enter the quote UN quote gamblers
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  vacation, which means they're going to retire for a few
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  months, enjoy the summer and then it's wake me up when
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  football returns in August and September.
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  So with that being said, we ain't retiring.
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  We never retire. We're going to bet till the
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  bitter end. Hopefully we can bet in the
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  afterlife because I'm going to have to do something to keep me
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  entertained for all of eternity. But with that being said, we are
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  going to really laser focus on Major League Baseball.
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  So this is the time of year where I know a lot of betters
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  get disappointed. You know, no more NBANHL.
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  I'm saying come on down. We're going to be the grinders
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  here with MLBI. Love betting MLB.
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  Yeah, you're going to blow your 9 to one leads like with the
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  Nats last week, but you're also going to have, you know, some
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  epic comebacks like the the Brewers the other day.
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  But the thing about baseball is it's a grinder sport.
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  It's a long term sport. So if you've been betting from
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  start to finish, you kind of embrace that grind.
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  You kind of accept the fact that hey, there's ups and downs along
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  the way, but we are really going to focus on Major League
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  Baseball as we head to the dog days of summer.
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  Now I'm also going to get you a little bit excited because I
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  tell you what guys, when NBANHL ends and I get my annual e-mail
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  from my my buddy Adam Burke at V Sin.
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  I'm and not only host this pod, but I'm an author of course,
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  analyst, but I work at V Sin as a betting analyst.
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  My buddy Adam Burke put out an e-mail saying that he is putting
• 2:45
  together the NFL betting guide. So again, highly recommend all
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  the great content of VSON, which I'm a part of.
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  But anytime Adam says, you know, give me a win total, I'm going
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  to write an article about how to use the bet splits to your
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  advantage. You know, that football isn't
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  that far off. So you know, we'll get through
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  June, we'll get through July, and then once you get to August
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  1st, I mean, hey, it's right around the corner.
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  You're going to get some college games before you know it.
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  So I actually on my live odds page, I kind of got rid of
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  NBANHL and added or I'm now focusing on NFL.
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  So I'm actually looking as we speak, Drake May and the
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  Patriots at Seattle opening night that open, what was it?
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  Seattle -4 three and a half. They're hovering around 4 1/2
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  now. Totals 44 1/2.
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  I mean, here I am, you know, talking, talking football.
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  So it tells you that, you know, it's maybe sad to see the
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  playoffs go. NBANHL.
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  We got baseball. We got football before you know
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  it. So.
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  So we'll have hopefully a good, good end of the summer start to
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  the summer end of the summer here with MLB.
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  With that being said, you guessed it, we're getting right
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  back to Major League Baseball. So do have a three pack of
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  sweats for you guys. All three relatively short money
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  line favorites. Two, one of them has a really
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  good rhythm recommendation and the other one has a good sharp
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  mush edge. All three have good line moves,
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  bet splits. So as always, 3 plays we're
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  going to try to go 2 and 1 eke out a winning day.
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  Also checking in. How's everybody doing with the
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  World Cup? I am obviously rooting for my
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  teams that I have advancing hopefully to to advance out of
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  the group stage in the World Cup Survivor contest, the Applebaum
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  Survivor contest. I got Morocco, Belgium, Uruguay
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  and Colombia, and I actually went to a big party.
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  My buddy Fed, who married a beautiful Brazilian girl, Sue
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  Ellen. They hosted a big World Cup
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  party and everyone was wearing Brazil, had a bunch of Brazilian
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  people. They were grilling up some
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  incredible meats. I can't pronounce many of them,
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  Linguisa, but hey, they were really, really good.
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  But they're all glued to the TV outside.
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  There's a projector and they tied Morocco 1 to 1, so all the
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  Brazilians, they were kind of annoyed by that, but I'll take
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  that. That's good sign.
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  If you took Morocco like me, hopefully to advance because you
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  draw against one of the best teams, hopefully we can again
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  use that to our advantage in advance.
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  But I hope everyone's doing well with the World Cup.
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  But me. I'm an American, so you know,
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  I'm a baseball guy. Let's see if we get a couple
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  winners here in MLB. So a three pack overall.
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  I want to start off with a 6:45 PM Eastern Time first pitch
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  between the Kansas City Royals and the Washington Nationals.
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  Now let's set the stage. Talk, bet, split system,
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  matches, pitching map, matchup. I'll give you my play for this
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  one. So going in it, we got the
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  Royals 29 and 43 on the year. Did just drop two or three
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  against the Astros, but avoided the sweep.
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  They won that series finale yesterday, 4 to nothing as a -,
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  120 home favorite. Meanwhile, the Nats 37 and 35.
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  I tell you what, the Nats and the White Sox, who would have
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  thought, you know, halfway through June, they're both with
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  winning records. If you took their over wind
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  tolls, you're feeling good. But they just took two or three
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  against the Mariners, dominated yesterday's series finale, 12:50
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  as a + 110 home dog. So for tonight's interleague
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  series opener, Royals are going to go with the ready Mitch
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  Spence. He's O&O with a 13.5 O ERA.
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  He'll be opposed by the Nats lefty Andrew Alvarez, He's one
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  and O with a 3.7 O ERA. What we've seen across the
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  market. This game opened with Washington
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  listed around a -, 130 home favorite Kansas City A + 110 row
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  dog and Sharps very quietly have laid the chalk here.
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  Short to moderate chalk with Washington.
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  We've seen Washington creep up -130 up to around -135 got some
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  really good bet splits on the Nationals.
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  If you start at DraftKings, the Nats are getting 81% of money
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  line bets, but 96% of money line dollars.
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  And then you look over at Circa in Vegas, 90% of money line
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  bets, 98% of money line dollars. So big low bets, higher dollar
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  split, big Pro and Joe one way split in favor of Washington at
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  both DK and Circa. Then we get into our system
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  matches. I actually have 7 system matches
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  lighting up on Washington. It's on my top system play games
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  of the night. First one that jumped out to me
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  above 500 home favorites off a win that are priced -150 or less
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  Nationals match. Obviously, those teams are 69
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  and 4362%, 9% ROI this year. If you're a home favorite -140
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  or less facing an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous
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  year, Those teams are 130 and 8860% with an 8% ROI this year.
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  If you're an interleague home favorite priced -150 or less,
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  and you're taking in line movement in your direction, that
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  lack of familiarity again, expected to win, you know, last
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  at bat, the crowd and you're moderately priced.
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  Those teams are 75 and 3866% with an 18% ROI since 2025.
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  Now, hopefully the Nats can get dispense more on him in a
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  second. But Washington does have the
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  better offense. They are posting a 422 slugging
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  percentage, 392 runs scored. Kansas City, 378 slugging, only
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  288 runs scored. So the Nats have scored more
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  than 100 runs more than Kansas City.
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  In Alvarez's 7 appearances this year, the Nats are five and two,
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  so hopefully they play well behind him tonight.
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  And Mitch Spence. Spence was on Oakland or the A's
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  last couple years. He's only made one appearance in
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  the big leagues this year and it wasn't good.
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  It was April 18th. He gave up six, six earned runs
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  and only four innings pitch in a 13 to four loss to the Yankees.
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  So hopefully the bats of Washington can get to Spence
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  here tonight. So we got not a huge line move.
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  I wouldn't call this like a massive line move play.
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  To me it's a big bet signal play with a lot of really good bet
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  betting system matches in favor of Washington but better bats,
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  hopefully the better pitcher on the bump and oh by the way, 2
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  rhythm recommendations both lighting up in favor of
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  Washington. So shop around guys.
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  I got the Nats -130 at Caesar's, a lot of books closer now to
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  -135 S Try to get the lowest juice you can, but I'm sweating
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  the Nats and you are more than welcome to join if you feel so
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  inclined. Next one for you. 7:10 PM
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  Eastern Time, first pitch. Let's look at the New York Mets
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  visiting the Cincinnati Red Legs.
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  Now the Mets come in 32 and 39, just took two of three against
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  the Braves. They won yesterday's series
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  finale 8 to 1 as a -135 home favorite.
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  You know, all the Red legs, 33 and 37.
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  Remember they started great. It really tailed off.
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  They did just drop two or three against the D backs.
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  They lost yesterday's series finale 5 to 3 as a -105 home
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  dog. So in tonight's series opener,
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  the Mets are going with the ready Tobias Myers.
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  He's Owen one with a four point O 5 ERA.
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  Reds are going to counter with the stud Rady Chase Burns 7 and
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  one 2.14 ERA now. What do we see across the
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  market? Will this game open?
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  Cincy listed around a -. 135 home favorite New York around a
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  + 115 row dog. And we see nothing but movement
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  in favor of Pete Rose and the Red Legs because the Reds have
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  gone up from -135 to -140 quite a few shops now inching toward
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  -145. So we had a little bit of line
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  movement towards Cincy. We have good bet splits on the
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  Reds, 61% money line bets, but 73% money line dollars over at
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  Circa, 80% money line bets, 87% money line dollars.
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  So we have a line move and low bets, higher dollars at DK and
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  Circa all lining up on the Reds. We also have a really good
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  system match here Monday. Home favorites off a loss who
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  made the playoffs the previous year.
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  Reds would match. Those teams are 22 and 1363%
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  with a 6% ROI this year. Now I just went Reds on the
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  money line. I got them -139 at Bally Bet
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  Certainly shop around a lot of books now -140 -, 145.
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  But I did see a lot of big money on the Reds run line -1 1/2 at
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  plus 150. So you got to be a little bit
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  more bold. You need them to win by two or
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  more. But 51% spread bets, 84% spread
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  dollars at DK Reds. Hopefully their bats come to
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  play. 312 on base, 393 slug Mets, 294 on base, 373 slug.
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  And oh, by the way, hopefully a little bonus here.
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  But I believe Ellie De La Cruz, that stud shortstop for the
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  Reds, their best player. He was on the injured list and I
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  think he might be coming back for this game.
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  So hopefully he's ready to go and and can play well tonight.
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  And I want to back Burns, not going to lie.
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  I've seen him pitch. I've been against them, I've
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  been for him. Hopefully pitches well tonight
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  because I'm on the Reds, but he's giving up two earned runs
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  or less in 12 of his 13 starts this year and at home, four and
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  one 2.23 ERA. So the Reds have played very
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  well behind Burns. Again, they're struggling.
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  Maybe it's a buy low opportunity on Cincy, but we got a line move
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  in their favor. We can kind of sell high on the
• 11:32
  Mets, who just took two or three against Atlanta.
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  And hopefully LA De La Cruz plays tonight and plays well.
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  Shop around again. I got Reds -139 at Bally bet
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  most books closer now to -145 let's go Red legs.
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  Last bed of the night. Let's look at a matchup here
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  between Saint Louis Cardinals and the San Diego Padres. 7:45
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  PM Eastern Time, first pitch. Padres 37 and 33.
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  Just took two or three against the Orioles.
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  They won yesterday's series finale 5 to 2 as a + 115 row
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  dog. You know the cards 38 and 31.
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  That's a team you thought wasn't going to be very good this year,
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  but they're pretty good. Just dropped two or three.
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  However, against the twins, they lost that series finale
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  yesterday 5 to 4 as a -1 O 5 road dog.
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  So pitching match up for tonight, the Padres are going to
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  go with the ready Lucas Giolito 2 and one 4.35 ERA.
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  Meanwhile, the Cards are going to counter with the Rady Dustin
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  May Four and Six 4.21 ERA. What we've seen across the
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  market. This game open Saint Louis list
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  around a -, 145 home favorite San Diego around a + 125 road
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  dog and you're thinking, hey team similar records.
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  You know, pods. Yeah, they've struggle, but
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  we've still got a lot of good players.
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  Might as well take the plus money, right with San Diego.
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  No, we've seen it go the other way towards Saint Louis.
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  St. Louis has been bet up -145 up to
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  -155 so it tells me we got smart money here.
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  Going with the Cardinals now at circa.
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  Only 67% money line bets, but 80% money line dollars in favor
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  of Saint Louis. So good sharp split in their
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  favor system match here. When both teams are above 500,
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  which is the case? Take the team who's getting line
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  movement. Just two good teams.
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  Which direction do the sharps move?
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  The number it's moving toward the Cardinals in the spot and in
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  this situation, both above 500. Take the team getting line
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  movement. Those teams are 90 and 5761
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  percent, 12% ROI this year. Now I got cards -150 on the
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  money line. That's from the score.
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  Again, shop around. Most books around -155 but I
• 13:33
  will mention if you're bold, Cards do have some good smart
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  money here on the run line -1 and half at plus 135 because
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  they're only getting 45% of spread bets.
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  But 67% of spread dollars at DK. I'm going to bank on the
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  Cardinals offense, hopefully getting to G Alito.
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  Remember, he was actually had a really good year for the Red Sox
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  last year but was unsigned and then came in late to the year.
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  Padres signed him, but hopefully they can get to Giulito because
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  the Cards have the better offense.
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  Knock on wood. Hitting two, 46323 on base, 319
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  runs scored. Padres only hitting two, 19293
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  on base, 272 runs scored. Dustin May, you know his numbers
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  Overall, they're not terrible. They're also not great.
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  You know, ERA of 4.21, but hopefully he can pitch well
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  tonight because he's has been pitching well recently.
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  In his last three starts he has a 1.98 ERA.
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  He's only given up 4 earned runs and 18.2.
• 14:29
  And he's pitched and in the day guy gets knocked around 1 and
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  six 5.73 ERA. But at night 3 and O 2.57 ERA.
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  So hopefully he pitches well tonight at Busch Stadium.
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  And G Alito, who just mentioned again, not a huge sample because
• 14:45
  he was late to the season. He's got an ERA of one at home.
• 14:49
  That's great. But on the road 6.94.
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  So hopefully the bats of Saint Louis can get to G Alito.
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  So you have a line move toward Saint Louis.
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  We got good bet split system matches, better offense,
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  hopefully the better pitcher. And oh, by the way, a big 59%
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  sharp mush edge on Saint Louis from our friends at Juice Rail.
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  So you Add all up here, guys, I'm sweating the cards.
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  Hopefully they can get it done at Busch Stadium tonight.
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  We'll, we'll shotgun some beers hopefully if they can cash.
• 15:16
  I got the cards -150 at the score again.
• 15:19
  Try to get that best price. Most books are around -155 S
• 15:23
  Nationals, Reds, Cardinals. Let's scratch and claw.
• 15:27
  Try to get 2 out of three tonight.
• 15:29
  Start the week off on a winning night, winning note.
• 15:32
  So that about does it for episode 531 of the All Systems
• 15:35
  Go Sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
• 15:38
  This is the part of the pod where we wrap things up and I
• 15:40
  always start first by saying thank you.
• 15:42
  Thank you for listening, Thank you for tuning in.
• 15:44
  Thank you for grinding in the arena with me every single day.
• 15:48
  That in sharp contrarian plays with our head and not our heart.
• 15:51
  If you do enjoy this pod, hopefully you value the
• 15:53
  insights. Whether you again tail or make
• 15:56
  every bet, I make you pick and choose your fade.
• 15:58
  Whatever you want to do, I appreciate you listening.
• 16:01
  If you would like to help me grow this podcast, please, if
• 16:03
  you haven't done it yet, just give it a five star review on
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  Spotify or iTunes rate and review.
• 16:08
  Leave a nice comment if you feel so inclined.
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  Maybe mention something you enjoy about the pod or something
• 16:13
  you've learned along the way. If you also want to click the
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  follow button or recommend the pod to a friend or retweet the
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  pod when I put it out on Twitter, I would very much
• 16:21
  appreciate any or all of those things.
• 16:23
  Next, if you enjoy the style of sports betting, data-driven
• 16:27
  sharp contrarian betting focusing on line movement, bet
• 16:30
  split system matches, taking a contrarian approach.
• 16:33
  If any of that is the case and you are looking to learn more
• 16:35
  about data-driven betting or if you're getting ready for
• 16:39
  Father's Day, that's right. I'm a new dad.
• 16:41
  I've been a dog dad for four years.
• 16:42
  I've been now a human father for almost 3 months.
• 16:46
  It'll be my first Father's Day as a true dad.
• 16:49
  But Father's Day is coming up. It's coming up on June 21st,
• 16:52
  this Sunday. You know what you should get for
• 16:54
  dad? Don't just get him a collared
• 16:56
  shirt. Just don't, don't get him, you
• 16:57
  know, some golf balls. Get him something that he can
• 17:00
  use and learn and find interesting, and then buy as
• 17:03
  many shirts and golf balls as he wants.
• 17:05
  I'm talking about going to Amazon.com and typing in the
• 17:08
  Everything Guide to Sports Betting or the NFL Sharp Betting
• 17:11
  Playbook. Those are the two books that
• 17:13
  I've written. I think Dad would very much
• 17:15
  enjoy reading about sports betting, maybe in a different
• 17:18
  way than he's been introduced to before.
• 17:20
  But if you want to grab one or both my books for Father's Day,
• 17:24
  I'll sign them for you. I'll buy you a beer, I'll meet
• 17:26
  you at the Sports book, and we'll sweat some baseball
• 17:28
  together next. Have you downloaded Rhythm and
• 17:30
  Juice Real yet? My two favorite sports betting
• 17:32
  apps. They help me win.
• 17:34
  They're going to help you win Rhythm is great for their AI
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  backed models and predictions for game bets and player props.
• 17:39
  Of course, juice reel so many great features.
• 17:41
  The robo Jackson best bet picks, the sharp mush indicators.
• 17:44
  The arbitrage plays the shop for the best line future syncing up
• 17:48
  your sports books. But if you'd like to support
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  this pod, this pod is free. It costs you nothing to listen.
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  Hopefully you value the insights, find them worthwhile,
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  and then maybe you support the pod by signing up to get the ASG
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  As soon as I make them, I got my book synced up, the Juice Reel.
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  I bet them at one of my books. They go right to the Juice Reel
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  five star review in the App Store.
• 18:46
  Next you have a live odds page. Well, if you don't have one, you
• 18:48
  need one. Again, if you want to be the
• 18:51
  best sports better you can be. You can't be blind out there.
• 18:53
  You got to be able to track the market.
• 18:55
  You got to know all the games that you can bet on that day,
• 18:58
  the start times, the live scoring, the live in game
• 19:00
  wagering odds again, Remember that next game they were down 29
• 19:04
  came back and won. Well, I think they're like plus
• 19:06
  3000 on the live line. Odds logic will give you those
• 19:09
  numbers to compare the opening column to the current odds.
• 19:12
  You can pull up the line history, see which direction the
• 19:14
  line is moved. You can shop for the best line.
• 19:17
  It's very easy with the new quote UN quote best line
• 19:19
  feature. It's just a column that
• 19:20
  highlights the best number for every book.
• 19:22
  But if you're serious sports better or you just want to get
• 19:25
  better, you got to have that live odds page.
• 19:27
  So Odds Logic is the best one around.
• 19:30
  I would highly recommend giving it a shot.
• 19:32
  All you got to do is go to oddslogic.com/josh 123.
• 19:37
  That's going to give you a 7 day free trial and 50% off your
• 19:41
  first month of service. So that about does it for
• 19:44
  episode 531 of the ASG pod on a big Monday here halfway through
• 19:49
  the month of June. As always guys, two final
• 19:52
  thoughts. One, whether I see you at the
• 19:54
  Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the
• 19:56
  Brooklyn, New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun on the
• 20:00
  outskirts of Boston where I'm located.
• 20:02
  Or of course, out in out on the border of Massachusetts and New
• 20:05
  Hampshire at the Nash. Or out in the desert where the
• 20:07
  true grinders get down, where Billy Walter sends his number
• 20:10
  runners. Where the lowest true as
• 20:11
  possible is found at the South Point.
• 20:13
  Or sweat and sharp contrarian plays jumping in the stadium
• 20:16
  swimming pool. When you catch a big ticket at
• 20:18
  Circa, whoever it may be, you're going to walk up to me,
• 20:21
  hopefully show me some winning MLB tickets from the weekend or
• 20:24
  more importantly, for tonight. And first one's on me, next
• 20:27
  one's on you. You'll post about the book,
• 20:29
  sweat sharp contrarian plays all night or show me that that the
• 20:32
  Carolina Hurricanes or next Futures ticket yet?
• 20:35
  Actually, I know some of you out there had them.
• 20:37
  But as always, guys, coming off a winning weekend, a losing
• 20:39
  weekend, a hot streak, a cold streak, whether everything's
• 20:42
  going our way or nothing's going our way, We just got to keep
• 20:44
  grinding. It's all about the grind.
• 20:46
  Sports betting is a grind. Don't let anyone tell you it's
• 20:49
  easy, or you know every day is a winning day, or you know if you
• 20:53
  jump off a bridge if you have a losing night.
• 20:55
  No, it's part of it. It's all part of it.
• 20:56
  We just got to stick to the model, stick to the blueprint
• 20:59
  grind, make sharp bets of their head and out our heart.
• 21:02
  Get down on the games that fit our model, the games that are
• 21:05
  against the public, with the house, with the pros.
• 21:07
  Flat bet, avoid parlays and get that COV.
• 21:10
  If we can do that, we're going to be successful sports bettors.
• 21:13
  So everyone has a great Monday night.
• 21:16
  We'll be right back at it sweating more MLB for tomorrow.
• 21:19
  That'll be episode 532 of the All Systems Go sports Betting
• 21:23
  podcast powered by Rhythm. Good luck everybody and have a
• 21:26
  great Monday night.