Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 347 - 9/5/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 347 - 9/5/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:19
Hello, and welcome to episode 347 of the All Systems Go Sports
0:25
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
0:28
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
0:36
Happy Friday. Our work week has come to an
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end. But usually Fridays, guys, it's
0:41
a getaway day. We just got baseball to talk
0:43
about. No Fridays, get ready.
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Fridays are going to be our biggest podcast days, day of the
0:48
week I should say, because we got to finalize our card for the
0:51
upcoming weekend. It's not just baseball anymore.
0:53
Football in full swing. How about we them boys covering
0:57
the 8 1/2 yesterday, Chef's kiss.
1:00
We'll get into that here in a second.
1:01
But a lot to get to on today's podcast because I do have a
1:04
three pack of sweats for you for tonight.
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I got to play on a very rare Friday night.
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NFL go, let's go to Brazil. What do you think?
1:12
Let's go to Sao Paulo where the Chiefs and the Chargers are
1:15
playing. I got to play on that game for
1:16
tonight. Also got a college football
1:18
sweat for you tonight and I have a Major League Baseball game
1:21
that caught my eye as well. So a three pack as always.
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Let's try to go 2 and 1 eek out of winning night.
1:26
But then we got a lot more to talk about because we have NFL
1:30
Week 1 continuing with a huge slate on Sunday.
1:33
I do have three official best bet picks that I'm excited to
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share with. You went over a lot of these
1:38
plays yesterday on the Rhythm Rundown.
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So if you guys are unfamiliar, haven't noticed, every Thursday
1:43
night at 6:00 PM Eastern Time, myself and my buddy Kade Harper
1:47
host the Rhythm rundown talking about all the plays.
1:49
Kade had a bunch of good prop bets that hit see his CD Lamb
1:53
longest reception. And there's another one with
1:56
who's at Tolbert who went over. So shout out to my guy Kade.
1:58
But I remember you can always TuneIn Thursday nights to get
2:01
the Thursday night breakdown and then we're going to talk about
2:03
all the games for the upcoming weekend.
2:05
But then also, I have a couple NFL divisional bets for you.
2:09
Remember on yesterday's pod we put in the Philly Philip eagles
2:13
-145 to in the NFC East. Well, I'm seeing them now up to
2:16
like -170 so hope you got that one in.
2:19
But I got two more division bets for you.
2:22
So we're going to talk about that.
2:23
And then a huge college football slate for tomorrow. 4 plays
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overall that caught my eye that I'll be sweating.
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So I'm going to break down those for you.
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So 3 plays tonight, NFL, college and MLB, 3 plays in the NFL for
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Sunday, for college for Saturday, couple division bets.
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So we got a lot, a lot to get to on today's podcast.
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I do want to mention, of course, I have my NFL Survivor league
2:47
going. The contest here was Splash
2:49
Sports. So we're up to 25 entries.
2:51
So not, not not too bad, but I'd love for you guys to join.
2:54
It cost 25 bucks. You can win up to $11,000.
2:57
It's a pinned tweet on my Twitter page at Josh under Score
3:00
Insights, so please give it a shot.
3:03
The deadline is this Sunday, September 7th at 1:00, so if
3:07
you're not in by then, you're not in.
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So make sure you get in. And is everyone playing the
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Broncos to win? Man, Can you imagine if Broncos
3:14
lost the Titans? That's the number one survivor
3:17
pick right now. But anyway, guys, before we dive
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in all of our sweats here for today, 2 and 1 + 0.53 units
3:24
yesterday got the Rays split in baseball, got the Rays, couldn't
3:27
get the Twins. But the coup de grace, the play
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of the night. What a what a great opportunity
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to take a hazmat play and and play the Cowboys and the Cowboys
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came through for US plus 8 1/2. Remember we talked about the
3:40
Cowboys as kind of a perfect example of kind of the things I
3:44
look for when I'm betting the NFL.
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The big thing for me is betting against the public.
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Public was hammering the Eagles. They're getting upwards of 2
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thirds, 70% of bets. So automatically primetime game
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going the other way, value on the Cowboys.
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Now, they weren't sharp because the line moved pretty big toward
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Philly -7 all the way up to -8 1/2.
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But a lot of shops hit 8 1/2 and started to come back down.
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That was something we talked about on the pod where you see a
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line move in One Direction, but where does it stop and start to
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get juiced up and go the other way?
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So there was some good buy back there on the Cowboys.
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And then also Week 1 dogs barked last night for us.
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And really the great angle here is the Week 1 divisional dogs,
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the built in familiarity. They're now 32 and 16 ATS, 67
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percent, 27% ROI since 2016. So maybe putting on the hazmat
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suit. Yeah, the Eagles got to blow him
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out. The Cowboy stink.
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Now we got lucky because Jaylen Carter spit on Dak Prescott.
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So anytime a good player on the other team gets kicked out, you
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don't want to brag too much there because sometimes you bet
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a game and your good player gets kicked out.
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So it goes around, comes around. But either way guys, we got that
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Cowboys +8 and half started our NFL season off with a winner.
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So we will take it every single time.
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Now without further ado, let's get right back to it because we
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got a big pod here for today and luckily we have another NFL game
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to hit on. So 8:00 tonight, Kansas City
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Chiefs, LA Charters. I'm already annoyed guys because
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I I saw that this game is on YouTube and I'm like, OK, can I
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just log in and watch it? Do I have to pay for YouTube?
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So I'm sure I'll be annoyed. And just why can't you just put
5:15
this on ESPN? But anyway, that's that's a
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separate conversation, but set the stage, talk about this match
5:21
up. I'll give you my play for
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Chargers and Chiefs. Now, a little background here.
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The Chiefs 15 and two last year had a great regular season, made
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the playoffs, made the Super Bowl, but they got rolled by the
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Eagles 40 to 22. Now oddsmakers are expecting a
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bit of regression for KC this year.
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Their win total is 10 1/2, but it's just under -165 at
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DraftKings. The Chiefs do have the 4th best
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odds to win the Super Bowl at plus 853rd, best odds to win the
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AFC at +400, and they are -115 favorites to win the AFC West.
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On the other hand, the Chargers 11:00 and 6:00 last season did
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lose and got rolled by the Texans though in the postseason,
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32 to 12 in the Wild Card round. Los Angeles's win total is also
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10 1/2 under -170 So basically, odds makers are telling you
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Chiefs, Chargers basically kind of same prediction here.
6:11
Maybe both go 10 and seven. We shall see.
6:13
The Chargers, however, are plus 2500 to in the Super Bowl, plus
6:17
1200 to in the AFC, and they have the third best odds to in
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the AFC West at plus 370. So what have we seen across the
6:24
market for this primetime matchup here in Brazil?
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Well, this was interesting because it opened chiefs -2 1/2
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neutral site and it got bet up quickly to chiefs -3.
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What's notable to me is that the public is all over Kansas City
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Chiefs, obviously Mahomes, Kelsey Taylor Swift, all will
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Taylor Swift be at the game tonight?
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I don't know. We, we got we got to wait and
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see. But the love for a big public
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team like the Chiefs laying a very, very short number.
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Public cannot, you know, layoff of that.
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So you are getting right now across the market 64% of spread
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bets on the Chiefs. So they are the public play just
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as the Eagles were the public play last night.
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And kind of similar to the Eagles game, the line is moved
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up in favor of the favorite. So we've gone from -2 1/2 to -3
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for Kansas City. And there are some Kansas city's
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-3 -, 1 fifteens out there. So they're juicing up the side
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on Kansas City. But it's notable to me that
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despite this heavy public betting on the Chiefs, you
7:20
really can't find many hooks out there.
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Like it's very difficult to find.
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Now. I'm going to give you guys a
7:24
second here. I took Chargers plus 3 1/2 and
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the only book that I found with the hook was ESPN Bet and it's
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still available at the time of this pod plus 3 1/2 -, 125.
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Every other book is at 3. So again, the importance of key
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numbers and hooks when you're betting these NFL games super,
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super critical. If you don't have ESPN Bet, I
7:43
would wait it out, see if it just goes to 3 1/2 naturally
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because it is juiced up toward Kansas City.
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My angle here is not that the Chargers are a quote UN quote
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sharp play. Like I do think there's there,
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there is reluctance on the books, you know, getting 2/3 of
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bets. You would think they'd, you
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know, be OK going to -3 1/2 - 4. But there is some of this
8:01
resistance on the three, even though it's juiced up, they
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really don't seem to want to put the hook out there across the
8:06
market. So there's a little bit of a buy
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low spot here on the Chargers as a heavily bet, prime time
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inflated dog. Aside from being very
8:15
contrarian, only getting 36% of spread bets, Chargers are
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matching some betting systems as well.
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Week 1 dogs Cowboys covered last night.
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They're now 79 and 62 against the spread. 56 percent, 8% ROI
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since 2016. Here's the kicker though.
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Divisional dogs. Cowboys were that divisional dog
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against the Eagles. Chargers divisional dog here
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tonight. Divisional dogs now 32 and 16.
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ATS 67 percent. 28% ROI since 2016.
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Week 1 inflated dogs getting at least 1/2 point off the opener.
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So you open 2 1/2, now you're getting 3 with the Chargers.
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Again, ESPN bet is is got the hook, but that system matches 44
8:54
and 30 against the spread 60% with a 14% ROI since 2016.
9:00
To build the case a little bit further here, Justin Herbert,
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six and two against the spread 75% over a 40% ROI against the
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Chiefs in his career. And also when Herbert is a dog
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getting three points or more, he's 11 and 6 ATS 65% / 20% ROI.
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Meanwhile, Mahomes, as great as he is, you know, you got that
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incredible Mahomes as a dog record.
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But Patrick Mahomes, 47 and 51 ATS as a favorite, 48% below
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500. He's only 16 and 20 ATS, 44% as
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a divisional favorite. So we got a lot of angles with
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Herbert against the Chiefs and as a dog getting three or more
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doing well. Not the same here for Mahomes
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where he's been below watermark here as a favorite and as a
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divisional favorite. Now, as I mentioned, if you're
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playing the Chiefs with sorry, you're playing the Chargers with
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me, I got Chargers plus 3 1/2. You got to get the hook ESPN bet
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plus 3 1/2 -, 125. If you don't have ESPN bet #1,
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you could probably open an account.
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I'm not touting for them. I'm getting nothing by telling
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you this, but there are some good promos right now.
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I would try to take advantage of those.
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You get those risk free bets you but you know, deposit 100, get
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200 and free bets, whatever the case may be.
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So maybe you want to open up ESPN bet so you can get the hook
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tonight and then take advantage of those odds boost.
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But that's my angle here. I'm taking a shot here on the
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Chargers contrarian primetime divisional dog inflated line.
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So I'm going with the Chargers plus 3 1/2 -, 125 ESPN bet next
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one for you tonight. I must admit, a little bit of
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buyback here. I don't love it, but hopefully
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we got at least a decent number on this one.
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So this is a college football game for tonight. 7:00 little
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appetizer before you're you know, screaming and yelling
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trying to figure out how to how to how to get the game on
10:47
YouTube tonight for for NFL. But we are looking at James
10:52
Madison and Louisville. Now.
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This one's kind of been back and forth.
10:56
If you haven't been paying attention.
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Both teams are one and O James Madison rolled was it Weber
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State. They beat them up pretty good.
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And 1:45 to 10, Louisville. They're also want to know they'd
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be Eastern KY 5117. So both teams are coming off
11:12
blowout wins. Now, what do we see across the
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market? Well, when this game opened, it
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was mostly Louisville -15 1/2 - 16.
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I even saw 16 1/2 across the market.
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And early in the week, this line really, really dipped toward
11:27
James Madison. James Madison at one point go
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all the way down to plus 13 + 13 1/2 and I was like, man, I
11:34
missed the, you know, the 1414 half again, kind of a key number
11:37
there based on, you know, 2 touchdowns and margin of victory
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and method of scoring. And I said, let's wait it, wait
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for it. And I'm going to try to again
11:44
when you, when you miss a number, don't force it because
11:47
you want to try to get the best of it.
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And I was like, OK, I'm going to wait it out, see if it climbs
11:50
back up. Now.
11:51
I was right. It got back up to plus 14 1/2
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yesterday and or last night, two nights ago and I jumped on it.
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I got plus 14 1/2 here with James Madison.
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Now I'm a little worried because I woke up today and even though
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they're still plus 14F at FanDuel, I'm seeing Caesar's and
12:09
a couple other books at plus 15. I see a couple books at plus 15
12:13
1/2. So I do not like the fact that
12:16
this line is coming back toward Louisville.
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Now. I'm going to stick with my James
12:19
Madison. This is what I like to call a
12:21
dance with the one who brung you play.
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If you're invited to the Sadie Hawkins dance in 7th grade and
12:27
Samantha asks you to dance and then there's a cuter girl who
12:31
who says, hey, you want to dance with me?
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No, you stick with Samantha. She asked you.
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You're loyal to your, to your play, to your, to your dance
12:39
partner. That's why hence dance of one
12:41
who brung you. But anyway, I'm sticking with a
12:43
+ 14 1/2 with James Madison. If you want to play it now, you
12:45
can get as high as plus 15 1/2. But here's why I still have some
12:48
confidence. One good bet split only 49% of
12:53
spread bets, but 61% of spread dollars are on James Madison.
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Rhythm is predicting a + 13.7 with James Madison and that is a
13:02
Green Star recommended play. So we're getting 14 1/2.
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Rhythm says it should be about 13 1/2 opportunity there to take
13:09
advantage of a discrepancy. I popped open the Juice Reel
13:13
app. There is a 24% sharp mush edge
13:17
here on James Madison. So 24% more of the sharper
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winning betters who have downloaded Juice Reel are also
13:24
taking the points with the Dukes.
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And then if you also get this one Friday Rd. dogs, you look
13:30
since the last two seasons, they're 26 and 14 ATS in college
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football, 65%, twenty 3% ROI. They're actually 3 and O ATS so
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far this year. And you do have a little bit of
13:41
a, I'm not going to call this a super low total.
13:43
It's 5555 1/2, but it has fallen from 57.
13:47
So you're getting a big dog with a total that's, you know, it's
13:50
not like it's 60 or 70, but you know, it's it's kind of maybe an
13:54
average college total, but the total has fallen and you're
13:57
getting a big dog. So the fair amount of expected
13:59
points scored, hopefully harder for Louisville to cover this
14:02
number. So I fully admit I didn't like
14:04
waking up today seeing 1515 1/2. I was hoping it would close 14
14:09
or, you know, beat the closing line.
14:10
But I'm going to stick with a + 14 1/2 with James Madison
14:14
tonight. Again, if you want to play, you
14:16
can get 15 1/2. But this is a rhythm edge, juice
14:19
reel edge and some good system matches and good bets with.
14:23
So I'm going Dukes plus 14 1/2 last play for tonight before we
14:27
get to our big college and NFL slate for this weekend.
14:31
I got 1 baseball game for you. So let's look at the Guardians
14:34
in the Tampa Bay Rays. Guardians come in 69 and 70.
14:38
Rays are 71 and 69. So pretty similar here, but
14:42
they're really trending in opposite directions.
14:44
Guardians have lost what for their last five.
14:47
The Rays have won seven straight.
14:50
And this one is interesting because we didn't really know
14:53
who the pitcher was going to be for Tampa.
14:55
We knew it was always going to be Gavin Williams, the righty
14:57
for the Guardians. He's nine and five, 3.26 ERA.
15:01
He's had a pretty good year. I remember I took the Mets, and
15:04
you might remember this too, but he had a no hitter going into
15:06
the 9th and it was just super annoying.
15:08
But Griffin, Jax was picked up. He was, he's a reliever.
15:13
I think he's going to be the opener tonight.
15:15
He's only one in seven with a 4.98 ERA this year.
15:18
But ever since Jax was announced as the starter, you saw a big
15:22
steam move toward the Rays. The Rays open this game around a
15:25
-, 125 home favorite. The Rays are now up to basically
15:30
-145 S about a $0.20 steam move in favor of Tampa Bay tells me
15:34
big money's going Rays here. I jumped on Tampa -142 that's at
15:39
FanDuel. Couple things to like the split
15:42
in favor of Tampa. 66% bets, 74% dollars.
15:46
At DraftKings, the red hot. They won seven straight.
15:50
They have the better offense. They're hitting two 53157
15:53
homers, 640 runs scored versus the Guardians are hitting only
15:58
two 23145 homers, 540 runs scored.
16:02
Tampa's been decent at home 38 and 33, Cleveland 34 and 37 on
16:07
the road. This would be a non division
16:09
favorite. Lack of familiarity, benefiting
16:12
quote UN quote the better team. You also look at a favorite low
16:17
total. So total in this game is 7 1/2.
16:20
Again, the fair amount of expected run scored more likely
16:22
to come from quote UN quote that better team.
16:25
And then lastly, you look at some of these numbers here for
16:29
Gavin Williams, he's had a good year, but in the day 2.17 ERA at
16:34
night 4.44 at home ERA of three on the road 3.54.
16:39
So he's been worse on the road and at night.
16:42
He's on the road at night tonight.
16:44
And then also I kind of like the fact that Griffin Jacks, he's 1
16:47
and 7 ERA of basically 5, yet he was announced as a starter and
16:51
the line still moved in his favor.
16:52
So kind of fishy move toward you would think the worst pitcher on
16:55
paper. So you add it all up here, guys,
16:57
the Rays came through last night the red hot.
17:00
They got good steam system matches here.
17:01
For tonight. I'm going Tampa hopefully to get
17:04
us a winner at -142 So we got Chargers plus 3 1/2.
17:09
Make sure you get the hook. James Madison plus 14 1/2.
17:12
You can get 15 1/2 if you want. And the rays -142 on the money
17:17
line. Now let's move over to this
17:19
weekend. Now, I just want to mention to
17:20
you guys, no podcasts on the weekend, but you can still read
17:24
the sharp reports that I write Saturday and Sunday for
17:26
visen.com. Just follow me on Twitter at
17:28
Josh under score Insights. They'll come out in the morning,
17:31
usually around, I don't know, 9-10 o'clock.
17:34
Also, you can get every best bet that I make from the Juice Reel
17:38
app. I've been noticing a lot of you
17:39
guys signing up. I'm loving it.
17:41
So thank you for the support. It costs $4.99 a week and you'll
17:45
get a full week's place, so less than a dollar a day.
17:48
So Saturday, Sunday, if you just want the plays, you can follow
17:51
on Juicer and get them right there.
17:53
Now looking toward this weekend, let's talk some college games.
17:56
These are games we've been kind of hitting on throughout the
17:58
week, but just give you my final plays here early one, 12:00 on
18:03
Saturday, Baylor and SMU. I'm loaded here on Baylor +3.
18:08
Now we open this one SMU as high as -4 they immediately got down
18:11
to 3 1/2, then three. Now they're down to 2 1/2.
18:15
So I don't see many threes available right now with Baylor,
18:18
so you may want to wait it out. I was able to jump on Baylor
18:20
earlier this week at +3. Obviously when we're doing pods
18:24
early in the week, the goal is to get these good numbers before
18:26
they move too much. So if you want to play the 2
18:29
1/2, that's up to you. I would wait see if between now
18:31
and noon on tomorrow, it'll just pop up because they are juiced
18:35
up a little bit toward SMU and that is a key number.
18:38
They lose by three. You want to push instead of lose
18:40
that bet. But this is an unranked versus
18:42
ranked by low opportunity in favor of Baylor.
18:45
They're really contrarian. Nearly 80% of tickets around
18:48
SMU, but the line keeps going to Baylor.
18:51
Baylor's only getting 20% of spread bets but 49% of spread
18:55
dollars. At Circa they're getting 63% of
18:58
spread bets, 98% of spread dollars.
19:01
And Baylor. I played in week one got him 2
19:03
1/2. They closed 1 1/2.
19:05
Pissed me off because they ended up losing that game anyway.
19:07
It's always more annoying when you beat the closing line and
19:09
the team still blows it for you. But hopefully a buy low spot.
19:13
Maybe people who played them are annoyed by them and don't want
19:15
to touch them from last week's result, so maybe a buy low
19:19
opportunity there. Rhythm though has Baylor plus
19:22
2.1, so even if you get a 2 1/2, 2.1 is an edge, but I would try
19:27
to hold out for for the +3 with Baylor, but I am sweating.
19:32
Baylor plus three got them earlier this week.
19:35
Next one for you, Iowa, Iowa State, big match up here.
19:39
Battle of State of Iowa. Where all that corns at?
19:42
We got the Hawkeyes and the Cyclones.
19:45
I'm taking the plus 3 1/2 with Iowa now.
19:48
This looks like a bit of a just a contrarian kind of value play
19:53
to me because a lot of these books did open around Iowa State
19:57
-3 and Iowa State is a really popular play.
20:00
They're ranked. So there's unranked first ranked
20:02
in favor of Iowa, but they are getting 72% of spread bets.
20:06
So that heavy betting on Iowa State pushed this line -3 up to
20:10
-3 1/2. But if you look at the juice,
20:13
it's not juice like it's going to four.
20:15
It's just like it's coming back. So a lot of these Iowa plus
20:18
three and a halfs are -115 -, 120.
20:22
It's a contrarian opportunity. Only 28% of bets on Iowa and
20:26
heavily back game on ranked versus ranked also a dog low
20:30
total. This is a very low total of 43
20:32
anytime Iowa to believe they play these low scoring games,
20:35
but it's harder for them to cover the favorite when fair
20:38
amount of expected points are scored.
20:40
If they lose by, you know, 17 to 1420 to 17.
20:44
Obviously the hooks going to be critical.
20:46
So you got to get Hawkeyes plus 3 1/2.
20:48
But this would also match a short Rd. dog system +4 or less.
20:51
You got to remember Iowa State's at home.
20:55
They're favored by 3 1/2. Typically you're getting three
20:57
points home field. This means neutral site.
20:59
It's basically a pick em type game.
21:01
So I am going Iowa plus 3 1/2. This was a later ad for me, but
21:07
UVA let's go Virginia. Virginia plus 3 1/2.
21:12
This game opened at NC State. It's a noon start -3 some shops.
21:18
This opener was kind of all over the place.
21:19
It was mostly -3 NC State, but didn't see one shop that I want
21:23
to say was maybe was an outlier, things like 3 1/2.
21:26
But it pretty much just stayed -3 and it is a big contrarian
21:31
play and it hasn't totally stayed.
21:33
It's -3 -, 120, you look at it the other way, some shops are
21:39
plus 3 1/2 like I got Virginia plus 3 1/2 -, 124 at FanDuel.
21:44
So again, just like you know with Iowa, you need these hooks
21:47
cause a lot of three-point games will will take place.
21:50
But it was basically public all over NC State.
21:54
They're getting nearly 70% of tickets but pretty much stayed
21:58
-3 NC State and there's only 1 - 3 1/2 out there.
22:02
Or flip it 1 + 3 1/2 to take advantage of with UVA.
22:05
So it looks like a line freeze public NC State, but line really
22:08
won't move. Contrarian opportunity heavily
22:11
back game and then listen to this pop open rhythm.
22:15
Rhythm has Virginia plus 0.2. Basically a pick em game and you
22:20
can get a 3 1/2 out there. So I am sweating the Virginia
22:22
Cavs plus 3 1/2 - 124 at FanDuel.
22:27
Probably my favorite game of the week.
22:28
Can't wait to sweat this one. Michigan and Oklahoma, we talked
22:32
about this one earlier, talked about it last night on the
22:34
Rhythm Rundown with my buddy Kate Harper.
22:37
But this looks like a great fade.
22:38
The trendy dog play to fade Michigan and back Oklahoma.
22:41
Oklahoma open this game -2 1/2. They quickly got that up to -5
22:46
1/2 - 6 even -6 1/2. Now there has been some buyback.
22:50
You're back down to around -5 1/2 - 5 for Oklahoma.
22:54
But there is a 4 1/2 out there. Oklahoma -4 1/2 at DraftKings.
22:58
It's juiced up, but what I like about this one, Got to admit
23:02
there was buyback toward Michigan when it got way up
23:04
around 6:00. But public is is really going
23:07
with Michigan as a trendy dog in a heavily bet 730 primetime
23:10
game. However, we've seen the line
23:13
move toward Oklahoma even though the public's over Michigan.
23:15
Dead giveaway to me that the pros are on the Sooners.
23:18
DraftKings 46% bets 54% dollars on Oklahoma.
23:23
Circa 44% bets 68% dollars. I do have a system match here. 2
23:28
ranked teams take the home favorite that covers 60% of the
23:31
time and wins 80% of the time since 2016.
23:35
So I think your options are if you want to save the juice and
23:38
go Oklahoma -4 1/2 listen to this.
23:41
Rhythm has Oklahoma -6.2 and I have another model -7.5.
23:46
I played a a relatively expensive money line.
23:50
I got Oklahoma just to win the damn game at -192 looks like
23:55
-195 is your best bet here. Again, if you're 200 or more,
23:59
that's kind of the cut off to me.
24:00
I just, I don't like going over -200 but you can still get a,
24:03
you know, relatively low -1 nineties here in favor of
24:07
Oklahoma. So 4 1/2 is a pretty good price.
24:09
I did notice 2 on the money line, 33% bets, 98% dollars on
24:15
the money line at Circa. So I'm going to Oklahoma to win
24:17
the game -192 money line play. But if you're trying to save
24:22
some juice and you can get the 4 1/2 that again, that's not a bad
24:25
number. So Oklahoma money line UVA plus
24:29
3 1/2 Iowa plus 3 1/2 Baylor plus three.
24:31
Make sure you get those good numbers.
24:33
Shop around and and wait it out if you don't have it right now.
24:37
Now 3 plays in the NFL. I'll admit guys, I could add
24:41
five or six more bets, but I'm trying to just be disciplined
24:44
and not have too many plays because the younger me would
24:47
have 10 bets on NFL Week 1. And I'd love to go 9:00 and
24:50
1:00, but you could easily go three and seven and and start
24:53
off in a, in a hole. So 3 bets for you.
24:56
I talked about this one before, but The Jets plus three, I'm
24:59
taking the Fireman Ed Jets plus three.
25:02
Public is all over Pittsburgh. 71% of tickets are on the
25:05
Steelers. But Steelers open -2 1/2 - 3.
25:09
They pretty much stayed 3, but they're juiced toward The Jets
25:12
and they look to be coming back down to 2 1/2.
25:15
Tells me you got a line freeze. This reminds me a lot of the
25:18
Notre Dame and Miami game last week where public was all over
25:22
the road favorite but it pretty much stayed 3 or 2 1/2 in favor
25:25
of the unpopular home dog rhythm.
25:28
Has Jets plus 1.8. Jets would also be super
25:32
contrarian. Heavily back game dog, low total
25:35
week one dog system match and week one dog.
25:37
Missed the playoffs the previous year. 57% ETS since 2016 so I'm
25:41
on Jets plus three. Shop around.
25:43
That should be a pretty easily available number.
25:46
This one, these next two, man, I don't blame you if you don't
25:49
want to sweat them with me. But this, this is the way I play
25:51
the NFL. I'm going with the G men Giants
25:54
at the Washington Commanders. I got Giants plus 6 1/2.
25:58
I believe FanDuel is at plus 6 1/2 right now, but most of the
26:02
market is down to six. However, Washington open laying
26:05
7. So this line has moved toward
26:07
the Giants even though public is all over.
26:09
Jaden Daniels only 30% of bets, 46% of dollars are on the
26:13
Giants. Circa 51% bets, 90% dollars on
26:17
the Giants, and Giants would match a lot of systems here.
26:21
Brian Dabel has a dog, He's been pretty good, 54% ATS.
26:25
Russell Wilson has a dog, 62% ATS.
26:28
Divisional dogs Week 1, again, that's been a killer system.
26:31
Came through with the boys last night, 67% ATS.
26:34
Rd. dogs, 60% ATS since 2016 Week 1.
26:38
So just a lot of indicators here on the Giants.
26:41
Again, looks gross. I'd hold out for a 6 1/2 if you
26:43
haven't bet it yet. But remember, it did get down to
26:45
5 1/2. But if you can get that 6 1/2,
26:48
that's the best play here. And that's what I got for the
26:51
Giants. And then last one, Cleveland
26:53
Browns another, another gross one here.
26:55
I got Browns plus 5 1/2. Remember, this is the most
26:58
lopsided game of the week. Nearly 80% of tickets are laying
27:02
with the Bengals, expecting an easy Bengals blowout win.
27:05
But they open -6 and they're down to 5 1/2.
27:07
And some shops are down to five. So why are the odds makers
27:10
dropping the Bengals number when the public's already playing
27:13
them to begin with? Tells me you got smart money
27:15
here going Cleveland. They're super contrarian.
27:19
Only about 1/5 of tickets on Cleveland.
27:21
Circa 33% bets. 72% dollars on Cleveland.
27:26
Divisional dog as we love to play.
27:29
Both missed the playoffs. Take the dog week 1 dogs, dogs
27:32
three. I got a ton of system matches on
27:34
Cleveland so seems gross, but maybe they lose by 5, maybe they
27:38
lose by three, who knows. But Giants plus 6 1/2, Jets plus
27:43
3, Cleveland plus 5 1/2. Lastly, I do have two more
27:47
divisional bats. Played Philly yesterday, hope
27:49
you did too because they are now -170 we got a -145.
27:55
Also took the Buccaneers to win the NFC South at -110 basically
28:00
of just a juice price. Their biggest competition here,
28:05
you know, in the spot for that division.
28:07
I mean, you'll get, you'll get the teams that they're they're
28:09
fighting with. The Falcons are kind of right
28:10
there, like I think they're like +200.
28:13
But the Saints and and Panthers don't expect too much from them.
28:16
I'm going to bank on the experience in kind of continuity
28:20
of Baker Mayfield as well as a pretty good defense and again,
28:25
the the favorite here at a pretty cheap price.
28:27
So I got bucks -110 to win the NFC South and I also played the
28:32
Texans to win the AFC. SI got the Texans at plus 110.
28:38
Really can kind of X out the Titans, my lowest win totals in
28:42
the league. Jaguars, I'm not a big believer
28:44
in them. Colts, Megan, they're always
28:47
competitive around 500. But Daniel Jones, not going to
28:50
put too much faith in him. Texans have been winning this
28:53
division. CJ Stroud's going to what, year
28:55
three at this point? Pretty good defense, pass
28:58
rushers. I think it's a Texans division
29:01
here. So I did get the Texans at plus
29:03
110 to win their division. Bucks -110 to win their division
29:08
and got Philly to win their division -145 and I did play the
29:11
Patriots over 7 1/2 wins. That was -150 earlier this year.
29:17
And I have the Saints under 5 1/2 wins.
29:19
I think that's down to even 5 or 4 1/2.
29:21
Now. I could be wrong, but I had a
29:23
lot of you guys asking me what, you know, what are your futures
29:25
look like? Well, that's what that's what
29:26
I'm going with. I also got bow Nicks over 22 1/2
29:30
passing touchdowns. I think it's -145 I forget which
29:34
book it's at, maybe ESPN BET, but that was kind of a a
29:38
discrepancy play because a lot of other books are at 24 1/2.
29:42
So that's what I'm rocking with this year as you can maybe hear
29:45
my dog Meadow snoring below me. But anyway, guys, that about
29:49
does it for episode 347. I'll be big Friday pod.
29:53
Get ready. This is what our Fridays are
29:54
going to look like. They're going to be long pods
29:56
and going over everything we got for the weekend.
29:59
But anyway, guys, it's the part of the pod where we wrap things
30:01
up. I start first, as always, by
30:02
saying thank you. Thank you for taking the time
30:05
out of your day, out of your busy lives to pull up a chair to
30:08
the virtual bar and sweat some sharp data-driven breakdowns
30:11
with me. If you enjoy the pod, please
30:13
could you give it a five star review on Spotify or iTunes?
30:17
Recommended to a friend, leave a nice comment, click the follow
30:19
button. I would very much appreciate
30:21
that. Next, if you enjoy the style of
30:25
betting, never in the in your life would you have taken
30:27
Cowboys plus 8 1/2, but you looked at the model.
30:30
Excuse me, It was a buy law opportunity going contrarian
30:33
system matches buy back at 8 1/2.
30:36
These little tip strategies you can find in my new book.
30:39
It's called the NFL Sharp betting Playbook.
30:41
So if you want to buy a copy on Amazon, it would really mean a
30:44
lot to me. You can you can probably fit it
30:46
in between now and Sunday. It's about 360 pages long.
30:50
But I also wrote a book called the everything guide to sports
30:53
betting. So it's great for kind of brand
30:54
new betters as well. But please buy one or both of
30:57
them support the team, bring them to the book.
31:00
I'll sign them for you. Buy you be it or ginger ale and
31:03
please the new book, the NFL sharp betting playbook.
31:05
Keep sending me your tweets, your pictures of you holding up
31:08
the book. I love it.
31:08
I'll give it a retweet If you want to give it a five star
31:11
review on Amazon, I would very much appreciate that as well.
31:15
Next, have you downloaded rhythm and juice real yet?
31:18
Well, rhythm great for their AI backed models and predictions.
31:21
Remember they had Cowboys I think plus 7.7 and we're getting
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8 1/2 so don't bunch of prop bets as well from the show last
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night came through. So download rhythm.
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You can use the promo code start 25 for 25% off.
31:35
Also download juice rail where you can get the robo Jackson
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best bet picks. We can also support the team by
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getting the $4.99 a week best bets from the juice rail app for
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the all systems go official best bets.
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Also the sharp motion indicators, arbitrage play shop
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for the best line futures, all available within Juice Reel.
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So download rhythm, download Juice Reel, give them a five
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star review in the App Store. We talked about it yesterday.
32:00
But if you want to get better numbers and compete with your
32:03
peers and not against the house, you should give a shot to Novig.
32:07
I have a pin tweet on my profile.
32:09
I'm going to have all these links in the bio description of
32:12
the pod. But if you go join Novig, it's a
32:14
betting exchange. It's not a sports book, but it's
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legal. You can deposit money, you can
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win money, and I think you're going to get better numbers,
32:22
hopefully increase your chances of winning.
32:23
So give no veg a shot and then of course, you need a live odds
32:28
page. Got to be able to track the
32:29
market. That's what you do with the live
32:31
odds page. What are the line open at?
32:33
How does it move? Where is it at now?
32:35
Shop for the best line identify steam live in game wagering
32:38
odds. It was crazy with that total
32:40
last night because you know it looked like it was going to fly
32:43
over first half and they didn't score at all. second-half.
32:46
I believe that in game total was like like 70 at one point.
32:50
So buy low spot in that case. But the odds logic live odds
32:53
page is the best around so give it a shot.
32:55
Odds logic.com/josh 123 and you'll get a 7 day free trial
33:01
and 50% off your first month. And as I mentioned it again, NFL
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Survivor, I got my survivor league contest with Splash
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sports. Go to my Twitter page at Josh
33:11
under score insights. Enter 25 bucks you could win 11
33:14
thousand, $11,250 to be exact. So that about does it everybody.
33:19
Final two thoughts as always, whether I see you at the Borgata
33:22
in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New
33:25
Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun, the Encore in Boston, Plain
33:28
Ridge Park Casino, MGM Springfield, the Nash out in the
33:31
desert with the true grinders. Get down where Billy Walter
33:34
sends his number runners, where the lowest as possible is found
33:36
at the South Point, where sweat and sharp contrarian plays
33:39
jumping in the stadium swim pool.
33:41
When you catch a big ticket at Circa, you're just going to walk
33:44
up to me and we're just going to say we them boys, the boys
33:49
covering the number I was waiting for, like, you know,
33:52
down by 4, Saquon Barkley to RIP off a touchdown.
33:55
We're going to lose. Like, like I could just have
33:57
those visions, but the Cowboys came to play.
33:59
Give him credit. So we got a big, big cover there
34:02
to start off our NFL season. So show me a boys ticket.
34:05
First one's on me, next one's on you.
34:07
And we'll we'll sweat the Chargers plus 3 1/2 tonight
34:10
together. So that what does it guys?
34:13
Maybe you're 2 and one, one and two, three and OO and three.
34:16
Good night, bad night off, a huge win off, a terrible loss.
34:19
Again, got to stay even keeled. Never get too high, never get
34:22
too low. There's going to be ups and
34:23
downs, that's part of the game. But we got to stay even keeled,
34:27
discipline, bankroll management and stick to the model, stick to
34:29
the blueprint, which at this point goes something like this.
34:32
Against the public, with the house, with the pros, flat bet,
34:35
avoid parlays, get that CLV. If we can do that, we're going
34:38
to be successful sports bettors. So have a great Friday, have an
34:41
even better Saturday and Sunday, guys, remember no pods on the
34:44
weekend. We can read the sharp reports at
34:47
Josh under score insights and you can follow the best bets
34:49
from the Juice Reel app. Just search ASG under score
34:52
podcast. But have a great weekend,
34:54
everybody. I'll see you back on Monday.
34:56
That'll be episode 348 of the all systems go sports betting
35:00
podcast powered by rhythm. Enjoy your first NFL weekend.
35:05
Good luck.