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NCAAB + NBA + NHL + NCAAF Playoff Semifinals Best Bets Thursday 1/8/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Yep. Inside, I want to kill myself. We're on OWN
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: seven run over the last two days after tonight it
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: was just complete bullshit. So that's that's what I'm gonna
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: start off this show. Horrible Sunday one and five. I
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: don't even know what to tell you about that. I
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: just don't want to do this anymore. I have never
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: seen anything like this. Man with the slump continuing. Two
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: straight losses, not a good day at all. Own four,
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: I have not had a good season. Man with wookends
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: the slump that I'm on, and the slump continues, I've
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: reached a new peak. Actually, I'm going to burn my
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: Bruins hat man. I don't know what is going on
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: with the Bruins. March eight, Is that what it is?
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: I don't even know it's March ninth. I think who
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: even knows? Man, I don't know what data is anymore.
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: But I don't even know what data is anymore. Man,
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: back with you after the worst day that I could
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: possibly have, Back with you as I always am until
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: I die, at least oh and two. Yesterday and yesterday
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: it did not go well for me. Own five. The
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: worst month that I've ever had in my eighteen years
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: doing this. I don't know what to even tell you
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: about this anymore.
• 1:15
  Speaker 2: Slump, Yes, the slump discontinuous, the slump continues.
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: Somebody fucking kill me, please.
• 1:22
  Speaker 2: I don't even know what I should do at this point,
• 1:25
  Speaker 2: other than potentially end it all.
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: What's up, everybody, It's towed back with you with Toad
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: Steel Sports. It is Thursday, January eighth. Nobody's gonna be
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: in the chat this time, of course, because we're coming
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: off one of the worst days ever, one of the
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: worst days possible, and it was way worse than it
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: should have been. I'm not happy about it, obviously. Thanks
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: to the people who showed up for my NFL bracket
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: special last night. I believe I'll have Clint on for
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: an episode of BALLD to talk about the NFL playoffs
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: as well tonight at nine pm I believe Eastern. Yesterday,
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: Virginia Tech just started off the day. We were able
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: to get better numbers on these two. By the way,
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: by the end of the well, not by the end
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: of the day, but like middle of the day, there
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: are a lot of better numbers out there, so Virginia
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: Tech really was like minus four. I think somewhere in
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: that ballpark. None of it even mattered. They blew a
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: giant lead in the game. Virginia Tech never should have
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: been close to not only not like, they shouldn't have
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: been close to losing the game. They shouldn't have even
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: been close to not covering as a favorite. They were
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: winning that game by double digits with like what six
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: or five minutes left in the game, something like that,
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: and they lose the game outright on a buzzer beat
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: or three or whatever, which at that point they weren't
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: going to cover anyway, but ridiculous. Virginia Tech absolutely should
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: have covered. That was completely bullshit. Kentucky was bad. Kentucky
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: should not have Kentucky wasn't close. That was a loser.
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: Clemson wound up being a push for me at minus four. Again,
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: you got to get these better numbers. And Clemson shouldn't
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: have even been close to not covering either. Clemson was
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: winning that game by at least twelve points, I think,
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: with about six minutes to go, so they completely fucking
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: blew it. So that was another one that should have
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: been an easy cover that wasn't. Grand Canyon won outright,
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: that was an easy Oh, the only actual win of
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: the day. Yeah, great a day where I think I
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: went one five and one. Calgary can suck my cock
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: obviously fuck them. The Flamers, Yeah, they would like that,
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: wouldn't they. I don't know what the fuck that was.
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: And then the Toronto Raptors that game was kind of
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: that was a game that could have gone either way
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: and money line would have hit for you on Toronto.
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: They won by one, they didn't cover the one and
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: a half. And then the Chicago Bulls that was the
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: other bullshit won bullshit. Yeah, the Bulls were winning that
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: game outright by like seven points late in the third quarter,
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: and then they didn't even cover a double digit underdog
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: spread and they were still in the game like midway
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: through the fourth quarter, and then they don't cover. It's
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: just such fucking bullshit. So yeah, the Bulls, Clemson pushing
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: or losing, and Virginia Tech. All three of those should
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: have been wins easily, so and if all three of
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: them won, it would have been a winning day. I think,
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: like that's how I don't even know what I want
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: to say. That's how, like Razor Thin this shit is
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: where like just bullshit causes three pillars to go down
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: basically in the day becomes the monster loss where it
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: should have been a win. Like how do all three
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: of those go in the complete wrong direction like that?
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: Like all the ones that I actually lost, cool, those
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: are all losers, But none of those swung in the
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: right way. So why it's just all like total winners
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: that just swing in the wrong way. That's what happens.
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: Fuck you, Zach, what's up? Man? Yeah? The Royals that
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: they playing tonight? All right? What am I doing here?
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: Hold on? I have too many things up right now.
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: We got to get into it. Man, this took me
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: forever to handicap. I don't like any of my plays today.
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: I'm just I'm not thrilled with any of this. We
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: have college basketball. I'm gonna try to I'm gonna skip
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: a bunch of these games because I just don't give
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: a fuck. If you guys want me to talk about
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: some of these other games, I whatever, I will. But
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: we have a lot of small conference games today. All
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: of my plays are in small conferences. We do have
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: a couple of Big Ten games. Northwestern is at Michigan
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: State at six thirty pm on Big Ten Network. Michigan
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: State ranked twelfth in the country. They're probably even better
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: than that, but they are coming off multiple big games
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: where they played in Nebraska of the wire on the road,
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: and then they crushed USC who I believe was still
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: ranked at the time, but just obliterated them by almost
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: thirty points. So there's gotta be some flat spot somewhere
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: in the schedule here, and it might be here because
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: Michigan State does play Indiana next, and Indiana is still Indiana.
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: I mean, they're three and one in conference. They still
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: have that name recognition behind them. In Northwestern hasn't even
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: won a conference game yet and they've dropped behind. So
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: I think probably if you forced me to give a
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: lien on this, I would take the points with Northwestern.
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: Northwestern just lost at home to Minnesota, although Minnesota is
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: actually playing decent so far, but that would be what
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: I would do if I was gonna play this. I
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: can't even find it on the page here. Michigan State
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: is a twelve and a half point favorite. You know,
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: Michigan State also slows the game down low total of
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: one forty three, so it makes it a little bit
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: more difficult for Michigan State to cover a number like that.
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: So that would be my thought on that game. Very briefly,
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: you would see Wilmington at Northeastern. I'm gonna mention just
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: because you wuld see Wilmington had this horrible looking win
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: against Hampton where you would see Wilbyton won without even
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: getting to fifty points in the game. You don't usually
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: see something like this. Usually want to be on a
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: team that one really ugly because they just get no respect.
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: And if that game was bad, which it was, UNC,
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: Wilmington should have won that game much more easily against
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: a weak Hampton team UNC or a mediocre at best.
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: I guess in this conference you un see Wilmington team
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: you u and see Wilmington should be more focused after
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: that because they know they played a horrible game there.
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: So they're gonna be at Northeastern here. Northeastern did just
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: lose pretty easily to Campbell, and now I believe this
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: is their first conference home game for Northeastern, is it actually?
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: I'm not sure they played three conference games already. Yeah,
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: they were all on the road. They had to go
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: to Elon, NCA and T and Campbell. So first conference
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: home game, they're not gonna overlook you UNC Wilmington though.
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: That's the thing, so I don't really want to play
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: U and see Wilmington either, but I guess if I
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: had to, that would be the side I would play,
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: would be Wilmington laying the points, just because they're still
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: the better team and they're off a disgusting performance where
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: they still escaped with a win. They're up to a
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: five point favorite on the road here. They might not
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: enjoy coming up to Boston right now though, in cold
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: rain and whatever. Although it's actually not raining today, but
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: it's cool weather. I think it's in the forties today,
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: but it's not an outdoor game, so whatever. Ninety two
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: percent of the tickets one hundred percent of the cash
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: on Northeastern is obviously inaccurate. But yeah, I would probably
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: lay the points if I was gonna do anything with that. Tyson,
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: what's up man? Thanks for hanging out. I don't know
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: why anybody is listening to me at this point after yesterday.
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: Yesterday alone throws yeah, the entire year into the negative,
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure, and it was pretty much on bullshit.
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: As I already talked about at the beginning of the show.
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: Three of those losers slash push pushes should have been wins,
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: all right, this first game. Then I'm gonna give out
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: a play on dude, I don't even like these plays.
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: I don't. I tried to narrow this down to what
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: I think of the best plays, and these are just
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: absolute trash. I don't even know if we're getting line
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: value on this, and I'm still gonna do with this.
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: We're gonna lay it with Campbell minus seven and a
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: half against that Hampton team I just talked about. First
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: of all, people are gonna see, oh, like both these
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: teams are eight and eight. They're both two and one
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: in conference. Actually, this line's already up to eight and
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: a half, so there is some agreement with me on this.
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: But again, I don't think there's You're teetering on the
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: edge of having any line value on this though, and
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: it looks like the public side is kind of Hampton here,
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: eighty eight percent of the tickets, eighty one percent of
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: the cash on them. I would try to find the
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: best number on this or just I don't know, hook
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: it up to a money line parlay. I don't think
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: Campbell's gonna lose this game, but people are gonna see
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: this number if they look at this game at all,
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: which they probably won't, But like, why is one team
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: a seven eight point favorite when both teams are the
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: same record? Right Well, obviously the ausenmakers are telling you
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: Campbell is the better team, But more importantly, I think
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: Hampton is actually in a sandwich spot because they did
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: just come off of that grind against UNC Wilmington. They
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: almost beat UNC Wilmington. It was a horrible game for
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: UNC Wilmington really, but kind of for both teams that
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: they're coming off a game where they almost beat the
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: best team in the conference. Now they play Campbell second
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: straight road game, and oh yeah, in two days they
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: have to go to Charleston, who's the other three and
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: ozer team in the conference right now, so that is
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: also a bigger deal. I think. So this is basically
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: a sandwich spot. And Campbell is coming off that win
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: already mentioned over Northeastern, which there's nothing to really draw
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: from that. They're not gonna be overly excited about that.
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: Will they look ahead to Elon? I don't really think so.
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: I mean Elon is actually below them in the conference
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: right now, so I think Campbell will actually show up
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: in this one. I do have a little bit of
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: a concern that ken Bum has Campbell high in his
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: luck Index, so they've overperformed and they're not very good defensively.
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: They're better offensively, but they also go high tempo, which
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: I think is gonna throw Hampton off because Hampton wants
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: to go slow. Campbell has faced some more difficult schedule
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: as well. Fiftieth in the country. Hampton has facing an
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: extremely weak schedule of three hundred and thirty two, so
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: I'm okay with it. Hampton's kind of in the middle
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: of the Luck Index, so they're not one of these
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: underperforming teams. I believe they are actually the better defense
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: getting points technically, which sometimes I do look towards that, Yeah,
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: Hampton is the better defense, but in this spot, I'm
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: fading that sentiment. You can't always just blindly play something
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: just because of that. Although that is one thing that
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: I look for better defense getting points when I'm fading
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: it here, and yeah, Hampton wants to go slow, Campbell
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: is not going to do that. Campbell will speed it up.
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: So hopefully they can get over this number. Although the
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: total is kind of low in one forty six Oddsmaker
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: is kind of indicating and they think Hampton might be
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: able to somehow slow this thing down a little bit,
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: but I hate the spot for Hampton, so it'll be
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: Campbell in that one ride or die well. Thank you. Yeah,
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: it's been really good over the last three months. But yesterday, dude,
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: yesterday should have been a lot better than it was.
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: I'm so fucking pissed. Yeah, all you have to look
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: forward to is the Royals letting you down again. That's
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: a sad existence. Man. You can root for the UMK
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: c Ruse as well. They can't let you down because
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: they have no expectations, all right. William and Mary at
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: Monmouth here in the Colonial as well. William and Mary
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: just had a pretty big game against Charleston and they
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: lost a win streak there, So coming of a big
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: game like that, second straight road game might be a
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: little bit of a difficult spot for them. Monmouth is
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: kind of just they're an easy team to overlook, let's
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: just say, in this conference, especially after you play one
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: of the better teams in the conference like Charleston. Monmouth
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: did just beat Towsand on the road. There's a decent
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: win though towsand looks like they're down this year though,
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: or at least thousand hasn't won in conference play yet.
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: Monmouth does have host run next. That host has been
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: good in the conference, but I don't know. I don't
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: think Monmouth is going to overlook William and Mary, who's
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: been one of the better teams early in the season
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: as well. The money is coming in on William and
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: Mary though, but I kind of disagree with it. Sixty
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: seven percent of tickets, ninety one percent of the cash
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: on them. They're a three point favorite in that one.
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: West Georgia at North Florida. I considered West Georgia in
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: this one, even though it looks kind of easy to
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: do it because they have the better record. North Florida
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: awful record two and thirteen, worst record overall in this
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: conference in the Atlantic Sun. But look at what North
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: Florida just did. They just played Lipscomb on the road
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: fairly close this game. Lipscomb beat them by eight, but
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: this game was close towards the end. Man this was
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: a one two possession game in the final couple of
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: minutes of the game. So North Florida really played their
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: guts out against probably the best team in this conference, Lipscomb.
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: So I think they could be in a bit of
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: a let down here, although this will be the first
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: conference home game though, so I don't know they're necessarily
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: going to overlook it because of that, and West Georgia
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: actually has been okay in the conference so far. But
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: the spot does set up better for West Georgia. They
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: just beat Eastern at home. I'm not gonna put too
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: much weight into that. Although actually I think this game
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: was probably a toss up type of line here. Actually
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: Eastern Kentucky was actually a road favorite in this game,
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: so West Georgia actually pulled off an upset in that game,
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: believer or not, even though Eastern Kentucky has a bad record.
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: It's an interesting game. I don't want to get involved
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: in it. But North Florida, coming off the game that
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: they just played, I think I would fade North Florida
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: on this one. West Georgia as a three point road
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: favorite there, I would probably lay it in that game
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: just because of what North Florida just played. So those
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: are my thoughts on that, mister Pinzy. What's up man
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: Queen's and Jacksonville. Jacksonville's kind of in a similar spot,
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: I think because Jacksonville just played Austin Pee after they
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: played Lipskamb on the road, Jacksonville playing Austin P. Austin
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: P is actually technically atop the conference right now, I
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: don't know, due to some tiebreaker scenario or something, although
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: Queen's is also undefeated in the so far. But I
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: think Queens is the team that's gonna get Overlook. Jacksonville
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: just played pretty well against Austin P. Only lost by
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: three against them on the road, basically took them to
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: the limit. Austin P was a pretty big favorite in
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: that one, so I think Jacksonville is going to be
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: in a letdown spot off of that. So I would
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: look towards Queen's in that one. My guy, I don't
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: know if he still follows me the Queen's coach, or
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: if he's had enough of my insandity. Queen's just me Bellerman.
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: In the last game, easy win for them at home,
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: nothing to really look at there, so I would lean
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: to Queens. The money is agreeing with me. It looks
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: like on this one is they're already up from four
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: to five and a half. So again, these college lines, man,
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: you got to get them before they move in a
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: lot of cases. So it's an interesting game. Though that one.
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: All right, let me see here we got next up
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: is another one of my plays, even though this one
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: is a game where it looks almost too easy to
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: play the side that I'm playing because they're, like, they're
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: pretty obviously the better team. But the spot for me
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: lines up on both in both directions. Here we're gonna
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: play U Team Martin against Morehead State. This is the
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: one I know. It looks easy to do it because
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: U Team Martin has the better record. Obviously Morehead a
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: bit down this year though both teams have the same
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: record in conference right now. But first of all, I
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: believe you Team Martin. I believe this is actually a
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: double revenge spot for them, because yeah, I think Moorehead
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: beat them both times last year, so that is one
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: thing to consider here. Yeah, Moorehead beat them here at
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: Morehead State in overtime last year, and then they beat
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: them again later in the season the last game of
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: the regular season, they beat them at UT Martin, So
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: it is a double revenge spot. So there is that.
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: So I don't think UT Martin is gonna overlook this game.
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: But there's even more reason for them to not overlook
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: this game because you team Martin. They just had a
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: bad game or I don't know if they were looking
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: ahead or what was going on here, but they almost
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: lost against Eastern Illinois. Eastern ILLINOI is an awful team.
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: UT Martin should not have been anywhere close to losing
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: this game, and they almost lost as a big favorite.
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: It was a back and forth game, so I think
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: that's gonna shock them back into focus. They had a
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: ton of turnovers. Man Like, they won the rebound battle,
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: they were clearly the better team in the game, but
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: eighteen turnovers is basically why this game was so close.
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: It shouldn't have been as close as it was. Both
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: teams actually shot poorly in the game, but the turnovers
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: of what did That's something that UT Martin's got to
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: clean up. Even though they're on the road here, I
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: think they will be able to. But Morehead for their purposes,
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: they're not in a good spot. They just played Linden
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: went An SIU Edwardsville already, who were both good teams
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: in the conference as well. Although I know U T.
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: Martin's not really a team are gonna overlook either, but
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: look at what Morehead just did against SIU Edwardsville. Man
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: Morehead was an underdog in this game, probably of about
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I would guess several points here, but
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: SIU Edwardsville was winning this entire game. Man, somehow Morehead
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: pulled this out of their ass at the end, even
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: though they were losing by digits with like a couple
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: of minutes left. I don't know how Moore had won
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: this game, but it was a game where they basically
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: weren't even in the game. I don't know how they won.
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: Ridiculous win for them. They got out rebounded in the game.
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: SIU Edwardsville led for the majority of the game. I mean,
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: how did this happen in this game? I actually don't
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: really know, aside from the fact that Moore had shot
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: fifty three percent from the field, even though SIU edwards
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: Will had twelve more field goal attempts in the game.
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: So Morehead just had this outlier shooting percentage in the game.
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: I think actually had more free throw attempts, which usually
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: you don't see from the road team. And I know
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: they're the home team here, but still, I just think
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: that was just a weird outlier game. And they do
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: play Simo next soll I don't know if they're really
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: they shouldn't overlook you team Martin. But it's really about
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: what did this team just do? What is this team
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: coming off of? I think Tennessee Martin is the way
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: to go in this game. You might have to lay points.
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: I found a cheap money line on this, and again,
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: this line is already moving against like it's moving towards me. Man,
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: it's already up from two to three now. It was
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: two two and a half when I looked right before
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: I started the show. I found a really cheap money
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: line on it. But again, laying the points, I think
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: laying two and a half for three I think is
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: probably an okay way to play it as well. So
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: again I apologize for this. These small conferences, man, the
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: public doesn't get involved in these games, and these lines
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: move like crazy. Sam Houston against Delaware in the Conference USA.
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: This isn't one of my players, but Sam Houston just
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: basically took Middle Tennessee to the wire. And if you
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: saw my bracketology, I have Middle Tennessee actually winning this
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: conference right now, although it looks like, yeah, maybe I'm
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: gonna be wrong about that because Liberty looks good right now.
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: But Sam Houston just took middle Tennessee to the wire
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: basically almost beat them. Now they play Delaware at home,
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: might be a team that they overlook a little bit.
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: And Liberty is actually the next opponent for Sam Houston
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: in two days, so they're in a sandwich here between
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: the top two teams in the conference. So I don't
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: like that. And Sam Houston, by the way, also is
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: I think they're pretty underrated right now. Is ken Bomb
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: actually has uh let me see, has them one hundred
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: and twenty third in the country, which really is not
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: bad at all. They faced a difficult schedule, they're low
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: in the luck Index, so that's I know I'm saying
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: that you should fade them here, but that's one of
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: the reasons why I'm not going to fade them is
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: because they're actually an underrated team. So I kind of
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: worry about that they are facing Delaware here. Delaware did
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: just beat Kennesaw. Kennesaw isn't great this year, I don't think,
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: but they've been okay recently, like in the couple of
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: conferences they've been in, so decent win for Delaware there.
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: I don't think Delaware is gonna overlook Sam Houston though,
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: so for me, I think I would take the points
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: of Delaware here, Sam Houston is up to eleven and
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: a half eighty percent of the tickets and eighty nine
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on Delaware, but to me, it
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: looks like the actual money might be coming in on
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: the Delaware side. The total is pretty low at one
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: hundred and forty four and a half, so I would
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: towards fading Sam Houston State and what I think is
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: a sandwich spot or I guess they're just called sam
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: Houston now, by the way, for U Tam Martin's game here,
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: I know ut Martin is ridiculously high in the luck
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: Index and has a weak schedule, so yes, I worry
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: about that, but they are decent defensively at the very least,
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: they play slow, and who am I fading there? Morehead?
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: Morehead is also really high in the luck index, so
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: both teams are high in the luck index, so it's like, well,
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: one team's gonna have to win there, and Morehead is
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: actually really bad on both sides of the ball. Tennessee
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: Martin is actually the better team both offensively and defensively there.
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: So even though yeah, the luck index is something like
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: both teams have kind of overperformed so far in that one,
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: So just throwing that out there. Both teams actually play
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: somewhat slow as well, so yeah, tempo wise, laying points
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: on the road maybe a little bit of a concern,
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: but it is a small line in that game. Denver
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: at celt Dakota State. Denver is coming off a big
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: game where they took Saint tom to the limit. That
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: was a big game for them. Saint Thomas is probably
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: the best team in the Summit, so Denver's coming off
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: a big game. Although I don't know if they're necessarily
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: gonna overlook Sheelth Dakota State, though even though South Dakota
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: State looks a little down this year, they're usually one
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: of the better teams in this conference. Celt Dakota State
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: is coming off a loss to North Dakota Those so
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: they may bounce back from that, but maybe you worry
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: that they have a little bit of a look ahead
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: to North Dakota State to although that's not for six days.
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: So overall, in that game, I think Sheelth Dakota State
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: is the way I would play it. They dropped a
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: little bit from eight to seven and a half, but
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: I think if I was gonna play that game. I
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: would lay the points with South Dakota State. The oddsmakers
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: are also telling you they're the better team, even though
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: both teams are eight and nine. So CELT Dakota State
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: almost certainly had the more difficult out of conference schedule
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: out of the two of them. Who All, Right, I
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: don't know what else did I want to talk about.
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: I was gonna talk about how, like dude early on,
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: sometimes you'll find these like conferences. Oh, I was gonna
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: mention it with Sam Houston. I think you'll see these
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: teams that are like bad in conference, like Sam Houston.
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: Right now, they're own three in conference, but they already
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: lost to New Mexico State, Western Kentucky, and Middle Tennessee
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: all in the road. So those are all not easy games.
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: So that's another thing about Sam Houston that they're actually
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: probably a little bit under rated if you just look
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: at their record. Okay, I guess I'll talk about Abilene Christian.
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: I guess Abilene Christian. They just upset Utah Valley Man
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: so that was a huge win for them. Utah Valley
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: is the best team in the whack here. Abilene Christian
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: somehow beat them and beat them soundly by seventeen points.
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: So I think Abilene Christian could be in a little
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: bit of a letdown spot here, although I don't know
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: if they're really going to overlook another conference team that's
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: above them, Tarleton State, although they do have ut Arlington
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: after this, so those are both decent opponents in this
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: really the only team in this conference I think that
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: you're really gonna overlook. I think it's Southern Utah to
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: be honest at this point, but Abilie Christian does look
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: like they're in pretty much a letdown spot here. Tarleton
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: though they always seem to overperform, like I said, the
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: last few years, like it's always like they're not as
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: good as their record looks. They're always high up in
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: ken Bum's luck index. And Tarleton just beat U T
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: Arlington on the road, they came close to Utah Valley,
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: and then they beat cal Baptist, who I know is
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: own three in the conference. But cal Baptist isn't that bad,
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: so that was a decent win for Tarleton. I think
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: I don't know who was the favorite in this game,
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: but that was a decent win. Nonetheless, Yeah, it looks
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: like cal Baptist was actually a favorite on the road
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: in that game, so it was a little bit of
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: an upset for Tarleton State. So I just don't want
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: to touch this game. But if I was gonna play it,
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: I would actually probably lay it with Tarlaton, even though
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: you have to lay five points here. It is a
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: low total one hundred and thirty eight and a half
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: and the money seems to not agree with me. Ninety
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: three percent of tickets and only ninety percent of the
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: cash on Tarleton. I don't know what public betters are
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: coming in and playing Tarleton though, but I think it
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: is a letdown spot generally for applete Christian but I'm
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: avoiding the game. We have more Big ten action at
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: eight thirty PM and Big ten Network number sixteen Illinois
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: hosting Rutgers. Rutgers just gotta win in the conference, so hey,
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: at least there's that they got a conference win. They
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: beat Oregon at home. Kind of a weird spot. Oregon's
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: not great this year. It was a weird spot for Oregon.
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: I mean to have to play out in Piscataway, New Jersey,
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: or wherever the hell Rutgers is. Rutgers, they come into
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: this game with a little bit of momentum, and they're
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: not gonna overlook Illinois. But Rutgers plays this slow, ugly style,
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: and Illinois is gonna speed this thing up most likely
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: because that's what they do. Is Illinois gonna overlook them?
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: I don't think so. I don't know, because they do
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: have iowen next, that's a big game for Illinois in
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: three days. But Illinois just had kind of a bad
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: performance against Penn State. They only beat them by eight
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: on the road, so I'm not entirely convinced they're gonna
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: overlook Rutgers here. This is a stay away for me.
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: As far as the market read here, Illinois is up
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: to a twenty two point favorite, but the total is
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: low at one hundred and forty five and a half.
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: So if Rutgers is able to somehow muck this thing up,
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: and you do think Illinois might be in a look
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: ahead here, maybe you could look taking Rutgers plus the points.
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: I mean, Illinois might not really have that much incentive
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: to just blow Rutgers off the court here either.
• 26:24
  Speaker 2: So.
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: I don't know. Those are my thoughts on that game.
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: I don't have a strong opinion on it at all, though, Garrett,
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: what's up? Man, wait, what the Canes and the Rebels.
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: What there's no hockey team called the Rebels. What are
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: we talking about? We do have Simo and Southern Indiana here.
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: Southern Indiana just had a close game, two close games,
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: actually really three against Morehead but that one was less
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: big of a game probably, but then against SIU Edwardsville
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: and lynden Wood, both on the road. Linden Wood I
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: think might be the best team in this Ohio Valley
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: converce right now. There's a lot of Ohio Valley today. Man,
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: I actually have two Ohio Valley plays today. This is
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: not one of them. But Southern Indiana's coming off two
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: big performances, man, And they do have U team Martin Necks,
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: but don't I just don't think they're gonna overlook Simo either,
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: because they're one of the better teams in the conference.
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: Southern Indiana is still trying to get their first conference wins,
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: so I just don't really want to fade them here.
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: Although I think they are in a bad spot, like
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: how many games in a row can they put in
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: a huge effort like this, man, Although they are back
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: home here, and last time they were at home they lost,
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: so some of that is a positive for Southern Indiana.
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: In college basketball, when a team comes back home because
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: there's no real road trip return type of scenario in
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: college because there's no family life to get back to whatever.
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: A lot of times, if a team played a couple
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: of games on the road, they come back home and
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: the last time they were at home they were bad
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: at home. They tend to actually bounce back. For Southey's Missouri,
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: they're coming off an easy win over Western Illinois. I
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: don't really see them like not showing up in this game.
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: But I mean, Southern Indiana is an easy team to overlook.
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: But I would lay it with Southeast Missouri if I
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: was gonna play at CMO. They're not from six to
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: seven here. So the market seems to agree with my
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: analysis on that one. Oh yes, that's why I was
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: like the Carolina Hurricanes. What, Yes, you're right college, Yeah,
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: you're right, he is. I'm an idiot, Kyle, Thank you, Sorry, dude.
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: This is what I get when I don't have any sleep.
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: I just don't think of them as their team names.
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: I just think Miami ole Miss's. That's just where my
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: mind is. I don't think of them by their team names. Yes,
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: it is the uh yeah, the Canes and the Rebels. Yes,
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: but well, the reason why I thought Carolina those because
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: Garrett is from Carolina. That's that's why I was thinking Carolina.
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: Next up is gonna be one of my plays. We're
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: gonna take the points with little Rocket plus three and
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: a half. You might be able to get a better
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: number than this. Actually, this line looks like it's moving
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: in my direction too, man, So the market's agreeing with
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: my play is today except for my last one. So
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: I apologize. But SIU Edwardsville is down from four and
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: a half to three. Here the totals really low on
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: one hundred and thirty three and a half. So somebody
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: keep in mind now for SIU Edwardsville. You might be thinking, well,
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: I just talked about Edwardsville, right, and they had that
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: ridiculous loss to Morehead State, right where SIU Edwardsville should
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: bounce back from that because they dominated that game and
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: they lost on like a fluke bullshit whatever it was
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: at the end of that game. Yeah, that's true. But
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: SIU Edwardsville played after that already and they did bounce
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: back and they beat Lyndon Wood. So SIU Edwardsville just
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: beat the best team in the conference and delivered them
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: their first loss. Huge win for SIU Edwardsville, for I
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: call them CUI siu E huge win for them. They're
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: staying at home and up next they got to play
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: UT Martin, then CIMO, both on the road, then Tennessee
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: State and oh yeah, those are the other three teams
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: that are top the conference right now. So and they
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: played more Head to within one point, like I said before,
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: then technically that's a big game, I guess because Morehead
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: is three and one in conference at least, although they
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: weren't coming into that game. But yeah, that game, Yeah,
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: sau Wedersville should have bounced back from that. They did.
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: But now they got all those games coming up, man,
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: that are all bigger games than this one. So it's
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: a sandwich spot. I think they're gonna overlook Little Rock here.
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: Little Rock not looking good in the conference here so far,
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: and Little Rock just took a home loss to Tennessee State.
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: Tennessee State was a very small favorite. I think in
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: this game they're an okay team in the conference. But
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: I expect Little Rock to show up in this one. Man,
• 30:39
  Speaker 1: They're gonna show up for a game against one of
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: the somewhat better teams in the conference, I would have
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: to imagine. So we're gonna take the points in this one. Now,
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: as far as what ken Bump says about this, he's
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: got Little Rock as bad. I know, they're in the
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: bottom sixty or so teams in the country. He does
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: have them as being somewhat unlucky two thirty seven in lock.
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: They're pretty bad on both sides of the ball. Yeah,
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: I mean, I'm not gonna argue they're not bad, but
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: they play slow, they ugly it up. SIU Edwardsville is
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: not that much better though, to be honest, at two
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: sixtieth and in kem Bum's rankings he has them really lucky.
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: It's seventy ninth in the country. So he's telling you
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: that SAU Edwardsville has overperformed so far. And well, yes,
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: they have the better defense SAU Edwardsville does. We're fading
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: them as a favorite here. So and both teams play
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: quite slow, So I think it's gonna be a slow,
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: ugly game. As you saw. The totals really low as well.
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: So points are worth more. Taking the points is worth more.
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: Each point is worth more. When that's the case, and
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: he has sau edwardsvill is having faced the fifth or
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: sixth easiest strength of schedules so far as well. So
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: they're not as good as maybe they look right now.
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: So little Rock is the play in that one. I
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: know we're in the drags, man. I mean, this is
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: a Thursday college basketball card where everything is just ugly.
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: You see Daviss at Santa barber here, you see Davis
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: just had a really bad game, I would say at
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: home against Bakersfield cal State Bakersfield. I think you see
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: Davis as a pretty large favorite in this game. Yeah,
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: which is why I'm pointing it out. So they should
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: bounce back. I would imagine after getting upset at home,
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: might have been looking ahead because Santa Barbara tends to
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: be one of the better teams in this conference. Santa Barbara, though,
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: they're coming up a pretty ugly loss themselves at Northridge.
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: So Northridge mediocre team this year, So I think both
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: teams should actually be focused in that one. So I
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: just can't come in and do it. In that one.
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: Santa Barbara is actually getting the money up to minus
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: four and a half, even though when I first looked
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: at that game, I was thinking you see, Davis was
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: going to be a side to look at here, but
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: looking at what both teams are coming off of, I
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: think it kind of balances out to the point where, yeah,
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: maybe the better team that's favored at home Santa Barbara
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: does show up and just get the job done there.
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: Montana is at Idaho here. Montana just beat Northern Colorado,
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: big win. And this is another situation where Northern Colorado,
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: even though they're zero to two in this conference right now,
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: their two losses were on the road at Montana and
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: Montana State, and we had Montana State as a win
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: on the show. So Northern Colorado is not as bad
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: as that might make them look like they're gonna be
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: one of the better teams in this conference. Montana and
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: Montana State both are as well. I'm not as convinced
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: about Portland State or Idaho, but Montana's playing Idaho here.
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: Montana is coming off that big win over Northern Colorado.
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: They have to go on the road here to Idaho
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: could be a difficult spot for them. For Idaho, Idaho
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: just barely got by Eastern Washington at home, so that
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: was not a good performance. That was the conference opener
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: for Idaho and they barely got by a really ugly
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: Eastern Washington team that only has two wins on the season,
• 33:44
  Speaker 1: although they I think they faced somewhat of a difficult
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: out of conference schedule, but still Eastern Washington not very
• 33:49
  Speaker 1: good this year. So maybe Idaho is looking ahead to
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: playing the two Montana's. I don't know what the deal was,
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: but I expect a better performance from Idaho this time,
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: so I would probably lay the points with Idaho and
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: this one off, I was gonna play it other that
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: line is actually moving in my direction as well, up
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: from three and a half to four here, So again, yeah,
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: just putting the info out there. Pepperdine at San Diego.
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: I considered this game briefly. Pepperdine. They just went to
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: Pacific and they took Pacific to the wire, and that
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: doesn't seem big, But Pacific was a big, FA, big
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: favorite in this game, man, So it was a big
• 34:26
  Speaker 1: performance from Pepperdine. Now that's what they're coming off of,
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: and they have to play San Francisco next at home,
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: so this does look a bit Sandwichee and it's their
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: third road game in a row, so I think it's
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: a difficult spot for Pepperdine. They're facing another one of
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: the teams that's not very good in this conference record wise,
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: san Diego. San Diego is coming off a couple of
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: big games on the road against San Francisco and Santa Clara,
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: but they did lose by twenty eight in the last game,
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: So back at home, I think they're gonna be better.
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: And by the way, the last time San Diego was
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: at home, they only lost to Gonzaga by sick so
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: they played really really well on this floor, although maybe
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: that means being back here they won't play as well
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: being back here, But I think it is a bad
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: spot for Pepperdine though, So I do like San Diego
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: in this one. I would lay it if I was
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: gonna play it. This line's up where it actually went
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: down from five to well, it went down from five
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: to three, and now it's back up to four and
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: a half, so this line's been moving a bit. But yes,
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: I would lay it with San Diego if I was
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: gonna play it. And I also don't know what public
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: better is gonna be coming in in laying points with
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: a six and ten team, even if they are against
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: a five and ten team or whatever Pepperdine is there
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: five and twelve. Excuse me, all right, Riverside and Bakersfield.
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: I like Riverside in this one. I don't know. I
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: don't want Riverside to cause me more pain. But as
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: I just pointed out Cal State Bakersfield, they just went
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: to U See Davis and they pulled off the upset.
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: That was a crazy upset. You see Davis there by Bakersfield,
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: nice road upset for them. And they were coming off
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: a close game at home against you See Irvine the
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: game before that. So they're coming off two big games.
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: They don't have a big game up next against a
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: week long Beach State team, but I think they are
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: gonna be in a letdown spot coming off of those
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: two huge games. There you see Riverside. They're still sitting
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: around after that loss that we took on the show.
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: They got drilled by Hawaii. I don't know what. That was.
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: Horrible game for you see a Riverside losing by forty
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: three points. But whenever that happens, I think you're gonna
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: show up with a lot of focus in the next game.
• 36:34
  Speaker 2: Man.
• 36:34
  Speaker 1: So I like Riverside in this one. It's not on
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: my card, but I do like it. Bakersfield has moved
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: up from three to three and a half. I do
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: not agree with that move. I would take the points
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: with riverside in that game if I was gonna play it,
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: which that one did not make my car. I'm you know.
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: I mean, the more I talk about it, I almost
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: want to do it, but I'll leave it off my card.
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: We do have Seattle at Oregon State here. Seattle coming
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: off playing Gonzaga pretty close. Nice game for them on
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: the road. I think they actually took them into overtime
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: and then actually, yeah, we faded them off of that
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: and they lost by margin against Saint Mary's. But Seattle
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: is kind of hanging around for a while in that game.
• 37:12
  Speaker 2: Two.
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: Now, they're playing a third straight road game, and I'm
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: not gonna say they're gonna overlook Oregon State because they
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: are still that former Pac twelve team, but they might
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: run out of gas. Although Oregon State's coming off a
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: big game themselves against Washington State because those are the
• 37:27
  Speaker 1: Pac twelve orphans, so it's kind of a rivalry between
• 37:30
  Speaker 1: the two. But Oregon State lost it by double digits,
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: so they might actually show up with more intensity in
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: this one. So overall, I probably lean towards Oregon State
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: in that one, and they are the team with the
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: worst record. The money is agreeing with me on that
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: one as well. Seattle's up to a four and a
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: half point favorite low total of one point thirty nine.
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: Seattle gets involved in all these ugly games, low scoring games.
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: Tickets are evenly split fifty to fifty, but Oregon State
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: is sixty two percent of the cash. I do agree
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: with the money in that one. My last play is
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: going to be to lay the points with Pacific minus
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: two and a half. This one is the only one
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: where the market looked at it was disagreeing with me,
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: but it might be beginning to agree again. It dropped
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: from three and a half to two and a half,
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: and now it's back up to three. I know it
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: is kind of a low total here at one forty five,
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: but I like the spot. As I already talked about
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: with Pacific. Pacific is coming off a bad performance man
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: against Pepperdine, so I think Pacific was kind of, you know,
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: maybe an overly confident mood after they crushed Oregon State
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: in the previous game. Again, it's usually it's still big
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: when you do that because they're one of the former
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: big boys. So I think Pacific just didn't have have
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: their best game here against Pepperdine. They almost lost the game,
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: but they won. So I think that's actually good because
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: I think it will give them focus and momentum coming
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: into this game against Portland, even though, yeah, they got
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: to go on the road, and yeah, I know, this
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: is another one where we're laying points with a team
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: with the better record. I know, if you want to
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: go money line on this, you could too, but I
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: don't know how cheap of a price you can get
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: on this. I know Pacific is the better record. I
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: know we're laying a couple of favorites here that are
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: teams that have the better record, but you can't just
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: auto fade those, you know. And this is about the spot, obviously,
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: because that's what I do. And look at the spot
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: that Portland is in here. Man, Portland, they just went
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: on the road to San Francisco and they almost won
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: the game against San Francisco. They lost my five. They
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: were in this game. They were winning the game in
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: the second half, and the game was close down the stretch.
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: They were within two points in the final minute of
• 39:28
  Speaker 1: this game. And they were massive underdogs here. They were
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: probably I don't even know, but they were definitely double
• 39:34
  Speaker 1: digit underdogs in this game. That was a huge performance
• 39:37
  Speaker 1: from Portland against one of the better teams in this conference.
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: Now they have to face Spacific and yeah, I know
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: Pacific has a good record, but look who Portland as
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: next man, Oregon State, and I think that might actually
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: be a bigger game for Portland because Oregon State is
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: still one of the like the big boys, the big
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: names in Oregon. So I think that is a little
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: big brother situation there. So I actually think this is
• 39:59
  Speaker 1: a sandwich that Portland is in here, plus which should
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: be a focused spot for a Pacific. So that's where
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: I'm going with a Pacific as the small favorite there
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: and that is my last college basketball play. We do
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: also have Fullerton at you see San Diego. You see
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: San Diego, pretty satisfying win, I would say against Hawaii.
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: San Diego bounce back from an ugly loss to Cal Paul.
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: I think they were looking ahead because Hawaii is really
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: their main competition right now for the Big West. Even
• 40:29
  Speaker 1: though you see Irvine is in there, not to be overlooked.
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: Undefeated in the conference right now. But you see San
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: Diego got that nice win against Hawaii. I could see
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: them maybe being in a bit of a letdown mode
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: against cal State Fullerton. Deem it, and they might just
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: overlook Fullerton did just play you see Irvine, but they
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: got smoked pretty much by twenty two points. So they're
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: probably in more of a spot where they're gonna just
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: show up focused, even though they tried to do that
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: in their last game. I would imagine as well. The
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: money agrees with me on this one too. For what
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: it's worth, you see, San Diego was a thirteen point favorite,
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: seventy five percent of tickets on them, but seventy five
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash fading them and playing uce Fullerton
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: or cal State Fullerton. Excuse me in that one. And
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: then we do have a Big ten game late at night,
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: the late in the degenerate hours. Big ten Network has
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: Ohio State at Oregon. I consider this game. I like
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: Oregon in this game, but I think the line is
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: just a little bit too questionable in this one. Ohio State,
• 41:30
  Speaker 1: they're coming off playing Nebraska basically to the wire. I
• 41:33
  Speaker 1: know we lost on that game. Ohio State had some
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: opportunities to win that game. Late and they didn't do it.
• 41:38
  Speaker 1: That was a big game, so they're coming off of that,
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: so it should be a hangover spot for them. And
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: if that wasn't bad enough, they have to go out
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: to the Pacific Coast and play a late night game.
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: And you know, I talk about these teams from the
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: East going out west to play these late night games.
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: It messes with their biological clock. So I don't think
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: that's good. And they're facing this Oregon team it's been
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: very mediocre. They do play Washington next. The Washington not
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: really gonna be cause for look ahead right now now
• 42:06
  Speaker 1: for Oregon, though. Oregon is coming out of an overtime
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: game at Rutgers, which it wasn't a good loss for
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: Oregon losing to Rutgers, but they were out on the
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: East coast. Man Oregon's been on the East coast for
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: like a week, so they actually have to adjust to
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: the time zone as well, which they should do it
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: more easily because now they've done this a couple of years,
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: they're more used to it. But I worry about it
• 42:28
  Speaker 1: still a little bit. And they have Nebraska, Michigan, and
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: Michigan State all up next, so they do have a
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: bunch of big games up next alethough I don't think
• 42:35
  Speaker 1: they're gonna overlook Ohio State though, because Ohio State's still
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: kind of a bubble team right now and whatever. I
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: lean to Oregon in this game, but I don't like
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: the number. Ohio State's got fifty five percent of the
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: tickets and cash right now, Oregon flip from a one
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: point dog. If they were one point dog, I would
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: I might be on this one, but now they're almost
• 42:54
  Speaker 1: a three point favorite two and a half to three.
• 42:57
  Speaker 1: I don't like that man because ken Baum actually has
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: seventy eighth and he has Ohio State thirty eighth, so
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: I worry about him, and he has Ohio State is
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: the significantly better team. So the fact that they're like
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: a three point on. I don't know if there's an
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: injury situation for Ohio State or what, but really they
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: should not be a three point dog in this game though,
• 43:16
  Speaker 1: even if it is a bad spot for them, If
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: it was close to a Pickham price, I think Oregon
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: would be the side, but I don't think you can
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: lay three with it. If you want to throw Oregon
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: into some like money line parlays or something, or yes,
• 43:29
  Speaker 1: find a way to play the money line on them.
• 43:31
  Speaker 1: You could do that, but I'm leaving it off my card.
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: I did forget to talk about a Pacific. As far
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: as ken BOM's rankings here, ken Bomb has specific one
• 43:40
  Speaker 1: hundred and twenty ninth. He does have them somewhat lucky,
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: but what can you do, really, Pacific's actually a pretty
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: balanced team. They're like close to being top one hundred
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: and both offense and deepfense, so that's not horrible as
• 43:52
  Speaker 1: far as they're concerned, and they are definitely the significantly
• 43:55
  Speaker 1: better team over Portland or ken Bomb has Portland way
• 43:57
  Speaker 1: down at two thirtieth, and even though I think he
• 44:01
  Speaker 1: has them as having faced these slightly more difficult schedule,
• 44:03
  Speaker 1: not that different, both teams somewhat high in the luck
• 44:06
  Speaker 1: indext I think, but he has Portland also as a
• 44:09
  Speaker 1: fast paced team, but they're also a very bad offensive team,
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: so they're a very weird mix. Fast paced but better defensively.
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I don't really understand when teams do that,
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: but Pacific is still the better team on both sides
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: of the ball. They're just the only of the two
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: teams that can really score. And yeah, Portland will try
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: to speed the game up in that one, but I
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: think Pacific might be able to slow it down still
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: and control the tempo in that one. And then the
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: West Coast Conference does have a couple of good games
• 44:40
  Speaker 1: here late at night, San Francisco at Loyal and Merrymounth.
• 44:43
  Speaker 1: These are both competitive teams in the conference, and of course,
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: as I already pointed out, San Francisco barely got by
• 44:49
  Speaker 1: Portland in their last game, so I think they're gonna
• 44:51
  Speaker 1: show up with a lot more focus here after they
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: almost lost as a big favorite. Usually you see teams
• 44:56
  Speaker 1: in a spot like that come out with more intensity.
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: Loyola Marry Mount, though they're they're not gonna overlook this
• 45:03
  Speaker 1: game either, and they just got killed by Gonzaga, which
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: you know, you can't really blame them for losing to
• 45:08
  Speaker 1: a team that's that good, but they got killed, so
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: I think they'll show up as well. Although my lean
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: in this one is San Francisco, but the money's disagreeing
• 45:15
  Speaker 1: with me on this one. Loyola is up to one
• 45:17
  Speaker 1: and a half way favorite, seventy five percent of the
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: tickets eighty eight percent of the cash on them. Loyal
• 45:22
  Speaker 1: and Mary mounts up from one to one and a half,
• 45:24
  Speaker 1: but I think San Francisco is in the stronger bounce
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: back scenario and then Santa Clara is at Gonzaga. Santa
• 45:30
  Speaker 1: Clara is trying to assert themselves in this conference, but
• 45:33
  Speaker 1: there's still gonna be a double digit dog in this one.
• 45:36
  Speaker 1: They're coming up an easy win over San Diego. Santa
• 45:38
  Speaker 1: Clara's face a pretty easy conference schedule so far, Goodzaga
• 45:45
  Speaker 1: hasn't really faced a difficult one yet either. You know,
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: Gonzaga does have their Washington rivalry, if you want to
• 45:52
  Speaker 1: call it that, up next against Washington State. Don't know
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: if they're necessarily gonna overlook Santa Clara though, because Santa
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: Clara has been good again in this conference. But I
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: don't know. It's a tough game to read. Gonzaga dropped
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: from sixteen and a half to fifteen. They have eighty
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: three percent of the cash on them fifty eight percent
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: of tickets on Santa Clara, which I don't understand. I
• 46:11
  Speaker 1: don't know what public betters are playing Santa Clara in
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: this game. Although the cash is saying Gonzaga, I slightly
• 46:18
  Speaker 1: disagree with it. This game is on ESPN two by
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: the way, but Santa Clara might have a tough time
• 46:22
  Speaker 1: trying to do anything at Gonzaga. I mean, Gonzaga is
• 46:26
  Speaker 1: just they're an elite team, man. So yeah, but of
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: course that's factoring into the line that San Francisco and
• 46:33
  Speaker 1: Loyal and Merrymount game, by the way, is on CBS Sports.
• 46:36
  Speaker 1: All right, we gotta do hockey. There's a huge hockey
• 46:39
  Speaker 1: board today and I am completely skipping it. By the way,
• 46:44
  Speaker 1: I hate the hockey board today. There are a ton
• 46:47
  Speaker 1: of games and I'm skipping all of it. Jeffrey, what's
• 46:50
  Speaker 1: up man, Thanks for hanging out hockey. Yeah, I hate
• 46:54
  Speaker 1: this board, man. I absolutely despise it, Like it's it
• 46:58
  Speaker 1: is pretty rare that you're gonna have twelve hockey games
• 47:00
  Speaker 1: or whatever, and I don't have a play on any
• 47:02
  Speaker 1: of them. But that's just the way that it is.
• 47:04
  Speaker 1: Calgary is at Boston. Calgary continuing a road trip here.
• 47:09
  Speaker 1: They just lost at Montreal four to one. They've lost
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: their last two games. I combined score of nine to
• 47:15
  Speaker 1: two should debatably be a bounce back spot here, but
• 47:18
  Speaker 1: they're on a back to back and they're playing a
• 47:20
  Speaker 1: third game in four days, all in different cities. So
• 47:23
  Speaker 1: that is my concern with Calgary here, and they did
• 47:26
  Speaker 1: just beat Boston in Calgary on December twenty ninth. Will
• 47:31
  Speaker 1: they overlook Boston though, I don't know. I mean, Pittsburgh
• 47:33
  Speaker 1: is the max Opona. Pittsburgh has a better record. I
• 47:36
  Speaker 1: lead to Calgary in this game, but I have some
• 47:38
  Speaker 1: concerns with it, like the fact that their rest scenario
• 47:41
  Speaker 1: is not very good. And I don't know if they're
• 47:44
  Speaker 1: going to completely focus on the Bruins or not, but
• 47:46
  Speaker 1: the spot is definitely worse for the Bruins. Even though
• 47:49
  Speaker 1: the Bruins were off yesterday. The Bruins are returning from
• 47:52
  Speaker 1: a road trip they've been on since December twenty seventh.
• 47:55
  Speaker 1: Wasn't a great road trip. They lost overall on the
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: road trip. They had a really bad loss to finish
• 47:59
  Speaker 1: the road trip, seven to four to Seattle. But you know,
• 48:03
  Speaker 1: I always talk about it when a team returns home
• 48:05
  Speaker 1: from a road trip, a lot of times they will
• 48:06
  Speaker 1: overlook their opponent, or they'll just become distracted by having
• 48:10
  Speaker 1: to get back to family life and whatever. They do
• 48:12
  Speaker 1: have a game against the Rangers on ABC on Saturday.
• 48:16
  Speaker 1: That is a bigger game. Man. Some nationally televised afternoon
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: hockey between Boston and New York two original six games.
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: So I don't like it. It's a bad spot for
• 48:28
  Speaker 1: the Bruins. So I lean Calgary here, but the money
• 48:31
  Speaker 1: somewhat is disagreeing with me here. And I can't really
• 48:34
  Speaker 1: just get on board with Calgary either though. So lean Calgary,
• 48:38
  Speaker 1: but I don't like it, and the money is kind
• 48:40
  Speaker 1: of disagreeing. Boston is down for minus one thirty two,
• 48:43
  Speaker 1: fifty three percent of the cash on Boston, fifty two
• 48:46
  Speaker 1: percent of the tickets are on Calgary for what that's worth,
• 48:49
  Speaker 1: which maybe that's not worth much. I don't agree. The
• 48:53
  Speaker 1: Penguins are not back. They are They're a mirage, which
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: is what I was saying early in the season, and
• 48:57
  Speaker 1: then they had they just had a comp like horrible stretch.
• 49:01
  Speaker 1: But no, this Pittsburgh team is not good. They're Jeckoling
• 49:04
  Speaker 1: high team. But they were absolutely nowhere near as good
• 49:07
  Speaker 1: as they were early in the season. And the oddsmakers,
• 49:10
  Speaker 1: I mean, i'll talk about that game in a bit.
• 49:11
  Speaker 1: The odsmakers are telling you how good they think Pittsburgh is,
• 49:14
  Speaker 1: which is worse than New Jersey. So yeah, that's what
• 49:19
  Speaker 1: they think about Pittsburgh, They're not good. I'm telling you
• 49:23
  Speaker 1: that right now. I was telling you that when they
• 49:24
  Speaker 1: had a good record early in the season, they hit
• 49:26
  Speaker 1: a stretch where they lost a ton of games, and
• 49:28
  Speaker 1: it's gonna happen again. Florida is at Montreal and Pittsburgh
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: actually has horrific goaltending to like they're just bad, dude.
• 49:40
  Speaker 1: Florida is coming off a game where they just got
• 49:43
  Speaker 1: drilled by Toronto on Tuesday, four to one at Toronto.
• 49:47
  Speaker 1: I think Florida is in a bounce back spot. We
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: had Toronto in that game because I thought it was
• 49:51
  Speaker 1: a sandwich spot. Florida had beaten Colorado the game before
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: that huge win, and that was after playing in the
• 49:58
  Speaker 1: Winter Class SEC and getting killed. But Florida a huge
• 50:01
  Speaker 1: game against Colorado, So they had a sandwich spot, horrible
• 50:05
  Speaker 1: game against Toronto. I think they bounced back from it.
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: Part of that handicaps they were going to overlook them
• 50:10
  Speaker 1: and be focused more on Montreal. I think they will
• 50:13
  Speaker 1: be here. Montreal played yesterday and they beat us somehow.
• 50:17
  Speaker 1: I don't even know how. That was a great spot
• 50:19
  Speaker 1: to fade Montreal. I trust the process. Montreal return on
• 50:22
  Speaker 1: from a road trip they'd beaten Dallas the game before that,
• 50:25
  Speaker 1: they had this game up next today. It was a
• 50:28
  Speaker 1: bad spot, dude, other than the fact that they had
• 50:30
  Speaker 1: a little bit of rest. But I don't think that
• 50:32
  Speaker 1: that rest is a positive when you come back home.
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: But I do think it's a positive spot after you
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: play that first game back home. The next game is
• 50:40
  Speaker 1: a positive spot if you didn't play well in the
• 50:43
  Speaker 1: first game. But they did and they aren't a back
• 50:46
  Speaker 1: to back, although yes they're staying at home. Yeah, they
• 50:48
  Speaker 1: had some rest prior to that Calgary game. But you know,
• 50:53
  Speaker 1: I think I gotta lean Florida in this game to
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: bounce back from such a horrible performance in the last game.
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: The money is agreeing with me on that. Even though
• 51:01
  Speaker 1: Florida initially dropped from minus one forty to minus one fifteen,
• 51:04
  Speaker 1: that might have been because of a goalie change or
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: something like that. I think Florida might have their their
• 51:09
  Speaker 1: second string goalie. It might be tarsav and net Here.
• 51:12
  Speaker 1: I'm not sure though. Well, actually we could probably figure
• 51:15
  Speaker 1: that out right because let me see, well, actually we
• 51:18
  Speaker 1: don't know. Because Florida didn't play yesterday. It probably maybe
• 51:22
  Speaker 1: it will be because Bobrovski played the last game and
• 51:24
  Speaker 1: they were kind of alternating. But whatever extra value on Florida.
• 51:28
  Speaker 1: I guess if you like that, they're down to minus
• 51:30
  Speaker 1: one fifteen sixty percent of the cash on Florida, sixty
• 51:33
  Speaker 1: five percent of the tickets on Montreal. So the money
• 51:38
  Speaker 1: agrees with me on Florida on that one. But I
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: don't have that strong of an opinion the Blues. They suck.
• 51:46
  Speaker 1: Their goalies are terrible. I don't even know who their
• 51:49
  Speaker 1: backup goalie is now, isn't it it's they demoded Bennington.
• 51:53
  Speaker 1: Isn't Bennington? They're backup goalie now? Vancouver? Is that the
• 51:57
  Speaker 1: Detroit Red Wings? Vancouver on a four game losing streak here.
• 52:02
  Speaker 1: I mean, Vancouver is not a great team. They're coming
• 52:05
  Speaker 1: off a game at Buffalo they lost five to three.
• 52:08
  Speaker 1: I don't think Vancouver's gonna overlook Detroit, though Detroit's been
• 52:12
  Speaker 1: a decent team, so I think Vancouver will at least
• 52:14
  Speaker 1: try to show up for the game. Vancouver did just
• 52:17
  Speaker 1: go to Ottawa for a single road game and beat them.
• 52:19
  Speaker 1: They've had two days off, but they have this weird
• 52:22
  Speaker 1: single home game, and then after this they play Montreal
• 52:25
  Speaker 1: and then Carolina. So it does look a little bit
• 52:28
  Speaker 1: sandwiching here for Detroit and maybe Vancouver. They're gonna try
• 52:32
  Speaker 1: to get a win here on this road trip after
• 52:34
  Speaker 1: starting the road trip off on the wrong foot. So
• 52:37
  Speaker 1: I lean Vancouver in this one. Where are we looking here?
• 52:40
  Speaker 1: Money agrees with me on this one. To Detroit has
• 52:42
  Speaker 1: plummeted from minus one to eighty to minus one forty five.
• 52:45
  Speaker 1: Again maybe because of goaltender information. I'm not sure like
• 52:50
  Speaker 1: the money, I don't think the market itself can move
• 52:52
  Speaker 1: the line like that. Seventy eight percent of tickets on Detroit,
• 52:55
  Speaker 1: fifty eight percent of the cash on Vancouver. I agree
• 52:58
  Speaker 1: with Vancouver in that one. I'm just not sure it's
• 53:00
  Speaker 1: enough of a bad spot for Detroit for me to
• 53:02
  Speaker 1: get on that one. That one, I was considering it,
• 53:07
  Speaker 1: and I was considering Calgary, but I don't know. I
• 53:10
  Speaker 1: don't love it. Buffalo is at the Rangers. This is
• 53:13
  Speaker 1: a game where I think both teams are gonna show
• 53:15
  Speaker 1: up as well. Buffalo just beat Vancouver, but they're not
• 53:18
  Speaker 1: gonna overlook the Rangers, man who are usually considered to
• 53:21
  Speaker 1: be the better New York team. So it's almost like
• 53:23
  Speaker 1: a little big brother situation. Even though Buffalo as the
• 53:26
  Speaker 1: better record right now, I'm still not really totally sold
• 53:29
  Speaker 1: on Buffalo after they went in this huge hot streak.
• 53:32
  Speaker 1: I don't know, man, but I think they'll show up
• 53:34
  Speaker 1: with focus. And you know, road teams do well this
• 53:37
  Speaker 1: year at Madison Square Garden. But the Rangers are not
• 53:39
  Speaker 1: in a bad spot either. They just lost to Utah
• 53:42
  Speaker 1: and they've had two days off since then, and they're
• 53:45
  Speaker 1: staying at home. And I believe we had Utah in
• 53:47
  Speaker 1: that game because the Rangers were returning home from a
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: road trip that culminated in them winning in Florida in
• 53:52
  Speaker 1: the Winter Classic, So I believe we faded them. We
• 53:55
  Speaker 1: got the win with Utah and the Rangers possibly were
• 53:58
  Speaker 1: looking ahead to this game against Buffle. Rangers have rest
• 54:02
  Speaker 1: coming into this one, not a horrible spot for them.
• 54:04
  Speaker 1: The money is actually on Buffalo, though, Buffalo up for
• 54:07
  Speaker 1: minus one oh four to minus one twenty eight, So
• 54:10
  Speaker 1: the odds makers maybe they are saying the Buffalo maybe
• 54:14
  Speaker 1: is not that bad. I don't know. I'm still not
• 54:16
  Speaker 1: sold on them. Fifty percent of the tickets and seventy
• 54:20
  Speaker 1: eight percent of the cash on Buffalo, so the market,
• 54:22
  Speaker 1: Reid says, Buffalo. I'm not gonna do anything with it
• 54:26
  Speaker 1: Toronto at Philadelphia. Toronto got that big win in their
• 54:30
  Speaker 1: last game over Florida. That was a nice win over
• 54:33
  Speaker 1: the returning champs. Man, now they're going to Philadelphia. I
• 54:36
  Speaker 1: don't think they're gonna overlook Philadelphia though. In Toronto has
• 54:40
  Speaker 1: a decent amount of rest because they had a couple
• 54:41
  Speaker 1: of games off prior to that, but big win over Florida. Nonetheless,
• 54:45
  Speaker 1: you could maybe make the argument this is a bit
• 54:47
  Speaker 1: of a letdown spot, but Philadelphia's got a decent record,
• 54:51
  Speaker 1: So I don't really know they're gonna overlook Philly. Here
• 54:53
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia returnal from a road trip and they still crushed Anaheim,
• 54:57
  Speaker 1: So I don't know. I liked Anaheim in that game.
• 54:59
  Speaker 1: In the market, they completely disagreed with me on that one.
• 55:02
  Speaker 1: I don't know what the market was seeing, but the
• 55:04
  Speaker 1: market was right on the game in Philadelphia won. Now
• 55:08
  Speaker 1: they've won their last two games with five goals each
• 55:10
  Speaker 1: against Edmonton and Anaheim. This is a spot where they
• 55:14
  Speaker 1: might look past Toronto, Man, because they got Tampa Bay
• 55:17
  Speaker 1: up next twice and then Buffalo. So I'm not sure
• 55:21
  Speaker 1: that this is a focused spot for Philadelphia. Man, I
• 55:24
  Speaker 1: think the spot is actually worse for Philadelphia in this one,
• 55:26
  Speaker 1: and I don't. I don't love the spot for either team,
• 55:30
  Speaker 1: but I don't know. For me, it's kind of Toronto
• 55:33
  Speaker 1: or Pass. But the money is on Philadelphia even though
• 55:36
  Speaker 1: they dropped for minus one twenty five to minus one fifteen,
• 55:38
  Speaker 1: seventy three percent of the cash on them, seventy eight
• 55:41
  Speaker 1: percent of the tickets are on Toronto. But I kind
• 55:43
  Speaker 1: of disagree with the market percentages there. We got where
• 55:49
  Speaker 1: are we at here? Where did I leave off New
• 55:51
  Speaker 1: Jersey and Pittsburgh on New Jersey is coming off? I
• 55:57
  Speaker 1: believe they lost nine to nothing. Yeah, so they should
• 56:00
  Speaker 1: be in a major bounced back spot here. You lose
• 56:02
  Speaker 1: nine to nothing, man, you're gonna be really really pissed
• 56:06
  Speaker 1: coming into the next game. I don't know what that
• 56:08
  Speaker 1: was in that game, Max Strom, I don't know what
• 56:10
  Speaker 1: the hell happened. And there, Yeah, New Jersey had double
• 56:12
  Speaker 1: the shot attempts, shots on goal that the Islanders did,
• 56:15
  Speaker 1: but that was because they were so far behind. They
• 56:17
  Speaker 1: were just throwing everything at the net. Now they're going
• 56:20
  Speaker 1: to Pittsburgh, you know you're gonna get focused out of
• 56:24
  Speaker 1: New Jersey, man, I mean, anytime a team loses like that,
• 56:26
  Speaker 1: you're gonna get focused. It wasn't exactly the greatest spot
• 56:29
  Speaker 1: in New Jerseys, and after they played against Carolina of
• 56:31
  Speaker 1: the prior game and they did have Pittsburgh on deck, which,
• 56:34
  Speaker 1: even though I don't think Pittsburgh is good, they're a
• 56:36
  Speaker 1: team that's drawing some focus at least. Pittsburgh, by the way,
• 56:39
  Speaker 1: still has more losses than wins, so how good are
• 56:42
  Speaker 1: they really? The record just looks okay because all their
• 56:45
  Speaker 1: losses are in overtime. Pittsburgh has won five more games
• 56:50
  Speaker 1: in a row. But I don't know, man, I mean,
• 56:53
  Speaker 1: they just be Columbus in overtime, and that was a game.
• 56:57
  Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure that was a bullshit win. I mean
• 56:59
  Speaker 1: that game was, Yeah, it was complete bullshit. I remember
• 57:02
  Speaker 1: that game. Columbus was winning that game four to one
• 57:06
  Speaker 1: and it was like late in the second period four
• 57:08
  Speaker 1: to one Columbus. Pittsburgh had no business winning that game,
• 57:12
  Speaker 1: and Pittsburgh tied the game with twenty seconds left in
• 57:15
  Speaker 1: regulation and then won in overtime. Absolute bullshit win for Pittsburgh.
• 57:19
  Speaker 1: Now they have three days off, but in this case,
• 57:22
  Speaker 1: I don't know that that's necessarily a good thing. They're
• 57:25
  Speaker 1: returning on from a road triple, though it was only
• 57:27
  Speaker 1: to Detroit and Columbus, so I'm not gonna put much
• 57:29
  Speaker 1: weight into that a short road trip. But what I
• 57:31
  Speaker 1: will weigh is the fact that they've won five games
• 57:33
  Speaker 1: in a row. And when you've done that and you
• 57:36
  Speaker 1: have a bullshit win in the most recent one, I
• 57:38
  Speaker 1: don't think having three days off or whatever this is
• 57:41
  Speaker 1: gonna help you. I think it's gonna hurt you. I
• 57:43
  Speaker 1: think it's gonna disrupt your momentum. So I don't know.
• 57:47
  Speaker 1: And how much focus are they gonna have a new
• 57:48
  Speaker 1: Jersey who's got kind of a mediocre record here, I
• 57:51
  Speaker 1: don't know, Man, this game is new Jersey or pass.
• 57:55
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh is not even getting home ice in this game,
• 57:57
  Speaker 1: by the way, So the oddsmakers are telling you new
• 57:59
  Speaker 1: Jerseys the better team, maybe factoring in the goalies as well.
• 58:03
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh up for minus one fifteen to minus one eighteen,
• 58:06
  Speaker 1: but sixty eight percent of the tickets and seventy four
• 58:08
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on the Devils. I would play
• 58:11
  Speaker 1: the Devils in this one. I'm trying to weigh, like,
• 58:16
  Speaker 1: what are my stronger opinions in hockey here man. I
• 58:18
  Speaker 1: mean this is maybe one of them. I mean, anytime
• 58:21
  Speaker 1: you see a team that lost nine to nothing, that's
• 58:23
  Speaker 1: a pretty strong opinion to jump on them in the
• 58:26
  Speaker 1: next game, you know. Hmmm. I'd like this more if
• 58:31
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh had a bigger game up after this, which I
• 58:33
  Speaker 1: don't think they do. I'm gonna stay off of it.
• 58:36
  Speaker 1: But yeah, Pittsburgh only as Calgary next, very unfortunately. I
• 58:39
  Speaker 1: wish they had almost any other opponent coming up next,
• 58:42
  Speaker 1: and then I would probably actually do it. But I
• 58:44
  Speaker 1: like New Jersey there. Anaheim at Carolina, the Rebels against
• 58:50
  Speaker 1: the Canes. The Rebel Ducks against the Canes. Anaheim's lost
• 58:56
  Speaker 1: six games in a row. Seven games in a row.
• 58:59
  Speaker 1: Not good. They've given up four or more goals in
• 59:03
  Speaker 1: their last six games, five or more at all but
• 59:05
  Speaker 1: one of them. I mean, this is bad times for
• 59:08
  Speaker 1: Anaheim right here, man. And they're playing a third game
• 59:11
  Speaker 1: in four days, all on the road, all in different cities,
• 59:14
  Speaker 1: which is not great. But it should also be somewhat
• 59:17
  Speaker 1: of a bounced back spot for them. They should show
• 59:19
  Speaker 1: up with focus, especially when they're playing Carolina. For Carolina,
• 59:23
  Speaker 1: they just crush Dallas, very satisfying. Win beating Dallas six
• 59:27
  Speaker 1: to three. Dallas good team. Carolina looks like they're in
• 59:31
  Speaker 1: a bit of a letdown spot here, so I would
• 59:34
  Speaker 1: have to lean Anaheim here. Although Carolina only has Seattle
• 59:36
  Speaker 1: up next, so I wish they had a better team
• 59:39
  Speaker 1: up next. I lean Anaheim. You can probably get them
• 59:42
  Speaker 1: plus one and a half goals on the puck line
• 59:44
  Speaker 1: at a decent price. Here. Carolina is up for minus
• 59:47
  Speaker 1: two to fifteen to minus two to ten, but Anaheim's
• 59:49
  Speaker 1: the slightly less rested team here though. Seventy four percent
• 59:52
  Speaker 1: of ticket seventy six percent of the cash on Carolina,
• 59:55
  Speaker 1: but they are definitely a public side. I lean Anaheim.
• 59:59
  Speaker 1: We've got Islanders at Nashville. Here. Islanders. They're the team
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 1: that was on the positive end of that nine and
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 1: nothing wins, So you gotta think they're gonna be really,
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 1: really satisfied with that win. They're starting a road trip.
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 1: Normally I would say a team's gonna be focused to
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 1: start a road trip. In this case, I'm gonna disagree
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 1: because they're coming on a nine to nothing win, and
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 1: up next they play Minnesota, which is a bigger game,
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 1: so it's a bad spot. But then I look at
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 1: the spot that Nashville is in, and it might be
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 1: even worse. Nashville has been on the road since December
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 1: twenty seventh because they had Christmas prior to that, they
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 1: had a road game prior to that. I'm laughing at
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 1: The Predators are not good, dude. They're nineteen and twenty three.
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 1: If you factor in overtime losses, they're still not good.
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 1: Nashville is in a bad spot. Like I was saying,
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 1: they're returning over from a road trip that they've been
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 1: on since December twenty seventh. So that's bad when you
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 1: return over from a road trip. Again, I always talk
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 1: about you get a little bit distracted. Now they overlook
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 1: the Islanders. They shouldn't because the Islanders have a good record.
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 1: But Nashville's next game is a big game. And you
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 1: might say, what the fuck am I talking about because
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 1: the Chicago Blackhawks. Yeah, but Nashville Chicago is a rivalry. Man.
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 1: I'm telling you, these two teams really don't like each other.
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 1: They hate each other. So that Chicago game is actually
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 1: bigger than you think. Uh. The question is are they
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 1: gonna overlook the Islanders? But also is Nationale gonna be
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 1: able to just overcome this return from a long road trip,
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 1: and I just I'm not sure that I see it.
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 1: I can't get involved in the gamme. You can see
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 1: why I hate this board, dude, Like I see nice angles,
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 1: but then when it's like I'm like, oh, I want
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 1: to fade this team or whatever, then I look at
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 1: the other team and I'm like, fuck, they're in a
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 1: fade spot too. The money is taking the Islanders for
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 1: what it's worth. National is down for minus one twenty
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 1: two and minus one oh seven. So again, the oddsergers
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 1: are telling you the Islanders are the better team, although
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 1: I think everybody's gonna agree with that. Don't see the
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 1: percentages yet, but the early money is on the Islanders
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 1: in that one. I don't believe Nashville should have been
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 1: favored by more than home ice, So there is that
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 1: the sex offenders correct. Do not let recency bias deceive you.
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 1: Edmonton at Winnipeg here, let me see Edmonton, they just
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 1: beat Nashville six to two. I mean, I don't think
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 1: they're gonna be over confident off of that win. But
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 1: Winnipeg's been struggling, man, so does Edmonton overlook Winnipeg. I
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 1: don't know. I mean they only have the La Kings
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 1: up next to in Chicago. It's not like this is
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 1: a sandwich spot or anything of the like. Winnipeg still
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 1: has not broken out of this slump. The slump continues.
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 1: They've lost ten games in a row now, and they
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 1: almost were able to get a win. They lost in
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 1: overtime to Vegas. Pretty good performance from Winnipeg in that one,
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 1: but taking Vegas into overtime and losing the game anyway,
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 1: you might come up a little bit flat coming off
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 1: of that man and not have much left in the tank,
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 1: even though you think they would get up for Edmonton
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 1: because it is Edmonton, and Edmonton just beat in Winnipeg
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 1: back on December twenty ninth, So I'm not gonna say
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 1: they're gonna overlook Edmonton. It's more of a question is
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 1: is Winnipeg gonna be tired coming off of that huge
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 1: game against Vegas or they fell short. So the money
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 1: is on Edmonton, and I don't disagree because it's just
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 1: not a bad spot for Edmonton. Edmonton up for minus one,
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 1: are down for minus one fifteen to minus one, ten excuses,
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 1: but they do have the cash. Fifty percent of the
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 1: tickets and sixty two percent of the cash on Edmonton
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 1: Ottawa at Colorado. Colorado is going to be the biggest
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 1: favorite of the day here, though Auta is not even
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 1: that bad. Ottawa did just lose in Utah yesterday though,
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 1: so they're playing a back to back in high elevation,
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 1: which is not easy to do. So I don't really
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 1: know that Audowa was in the greatest spot here, although
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 1: they'll try to get up for a game against Colorado.
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 1: Of course, Colorado is returning on from a road trip,
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 1: although it wasn't a long road trip. They've been on
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 1: the road since Sunday Saturday. Excuse me, but they did
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 1: go to the Southeast Carolina, Florida, Tampa Bay, so distance
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 1: why it did take them a bit far. They actually
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 1: after they lost their win streak, they actually did get
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 1: hung over and they lost to Tampa Bay. So I
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 1: was correct about Tampa Bay in that one and Florida
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 1: other day before that, but I didn't or the game
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 1: before that. But I didn't give out either play unfortunately,
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 1: because I was right about both of them. The avalanche whisperer, man,
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 1: that's when you know that the avalanche is coming and
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 1: it's about to bury you. Now, yes, Colorado is coming
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 1: back home, so it is a difficult spot for them.
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 1: They only play Columbus next to though, so they don't
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 1: really have a spot where they're gonna overlook an opponent
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 1: could still be maybe a little bit distracted with getting
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 1: back to stuff at home. Autaw was already kind of
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 1: in the area geographically. The money is still coming in
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 1: on Colorado. It looks like, even though they're down for
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 1: minus sixty minus two to fifty three, seventy two percent
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 1: of tickets in ninety six percent of the cash on Colorado.
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 1: So the money is saying Colorado. I I don't know.
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 1: I slightly disagree with it. I would maybe look towards
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 1: Ottawa with a huge line, but I don't like it
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 1: by any means. Columbus at Vegas. Columbus coming off a
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 1: pretty ugly loss five to two at San Jose, so
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 1: they're in the Pacific time zone. Now, Columbus, we had
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 1: that game, we played San Jose. In that game, Columbus
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 1: was coming off that ridiculous win against ridiculous loss against
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh excuse me, where they should have won the game,
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 1: and they had Vegas and Colorado upcomings. So that was
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 1: essentially a sandwich spot plus first game out of the
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 1: Pacific Coast to start the road trip. Bad spot. Now
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 1: this is a better spot for Columbus now, I think
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 1: they may bounce back from this. Vegas is coming off
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 1: that overtime game against Winnipeg, but they are also returning
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 1: home from a road trip they've been on since Friday,
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 1: where they went to Saint Louis, Chicago and Winnipeg, finishing
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 1: with two overtime games. So the spot is a little
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 1: bit worse for Vegas. And they are playing Saint Louis
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 1: next to Saint Louis did beat them to start the
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 1: road trip, so maybe they'll put more weight into that
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 1: game than this Columbus game. So I prefer Columbus in
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 1: this one. The money agree Vegas is down for minus
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 1: one eighty five to minus one fifty two, seventy one
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets on them in only fifty seven percent
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 1: of the cash on Vegas. But it wasn't a long
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 1: road trip, So that's my hesitation with the fade of
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 1: Vegas here. Maybe I'm being too selective, but it is
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 1: what it is. I like Columbus in this one might
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 1: be one of the stronger opinions though, as Yeah, the
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 1: market is agreeing with me on that one. And then
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 1: Minnesota is at Seattle. I don't believe Minnesota is in
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 1: any sort of bad spot. No, they just lost to
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 1: the Kings twice, so they're kind of in a bounce
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 1: back spot here, maybe trying to finish the road trip
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 1: with a win. Here. They've had a couple of days off,
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 1: so it's not really a bad spot for them. Seattle
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 1: is not even as good as the record looks. The
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 1: odds makers are telling you Seattle is not good. Seattle
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 1: just beat the Bruins seven to four. Seattle's won four
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 1: games in a row. They're not gonna overlook Minnesota, but
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 1: Minnesota is the better team. Seattle looks better than they
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 1: really are right now. I kind of lean towards Minnesota
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 1: and this one. Even though the money is on Seattle,
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 1: Minnesota is down for minus one fifty one forty seven.
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 1: The market is saying Seattle fifty three percent of ticket,
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 1: seventy nine percent of the cash on Seattle. But we'll
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 1: see what happens in that one. I think the stronger
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 1: opinions for hockey here are I kind of want to
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 1: say Calgary, Vancouver mmm, we were a couple of the
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 1: other New Jersey and uh, what was the other one, Columbus.
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 1: I think those are the four that are probably the
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 1: best of the four of the best of the hockey
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 1: board today. Pacers. Yeah, I mean the Pacers. The money
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 1: the market is agreeing with the Pacers. But I have
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 1: one NBA playing that is not it. Indiana is at
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 1: Charlotte here as we move over to the NBA Indiana,
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 1: I can't do it, man, I mean, Indiana just played
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 1: a big game against Cleveland on Tuesday. They only lost
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 1: by four, and they have Miami up next, so I
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 1: can't do it. I mean, even though, yeah, you might argue, well,
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 1: Indiana keeps losing so they can't really overlook anybody. But yeah,
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 1: but this is a pretty big game against Cleveland and Indiana. Yeah,
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 1: I mean they were winning the game late later in
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 1: the game, I think, right, yeah, they were still in
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 1: this game right to the wire. Dude. They were down
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 1: by one in the final minutes of the game. So
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 1: I can't jump on board Indiana after a performance like that.
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 1: Charlotte is coming off beating me technically, I guess last
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 1: night because Toronto couldn't cover the one and a half
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 1: in what was a horrible spot for Charlotte. I could
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 1: not understand why the market was on Charlotte in that game.
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 1: Even though they covered but one and a half, they
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 1: still lost the game, So a money line would have
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 1: won on Toronto. So I'm pissed about that. Charlotte was
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 1: coming off that mega win against Oklahoma City. They did
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 1: have technically a worst game last night because they returned
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 1: home and they lost the game. And when that happens,
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 1: like I talked about a lot of times, the second
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 1: game back, the team will do better. But they are
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 1: playing a third game at four days, fourth game and
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 1: six days, fifth game in eight days? Is that what
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 1: it is? Yeah? No, fifth game in seven days, right,
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 1: So way it's a third game in four days. Yeah,
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 1: fourth game in six days, and yeah, in a fifth
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 1: game in seven days because there was a back to
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 1: back there too, so that is it is a rare
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 1: spot a fifth game in seven days. So the schedule
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 1: is really packed for Charlotte, which is probably why they're
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 1: getting faded here. But and they go out on the
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 1: road again after this. But I can't do I can't
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 1: play the Pacers either. Money is saying to take the
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 1: Pacers but I can't do it. Linees three and a
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 1: half on the Hornets, sixty five percent of tickets, fifty
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 1: seven percent of the cash on the Hornets. The money
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 1: is somewhat fading the Hornets, but both teams are in
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 1: bad spots here. It would be one of those games
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 1: where to me, I think it over makes sense with
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 1: the Hornets just being massively fatigued. I think it affects
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 1: the defense more, even though yeah, it kind of affects
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 1: three point shooting, but I think it affects defenses the most.
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 1: Total drop to two thirty two, but seventy one percent tickets,
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 1: ninety nine percent of the cash on the over For now,
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 1: I don't know I would lean over in that one
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 1: Miami at Chicago, But what do I know about totals.
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 1: I don't really do totals, and I should start checking
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 1: to see if my opinions are correct on these totals.
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 1: Miami just got just crushed by Minnesota, and I thought
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 1: that was a bad spot from Minnesota. A hero came
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 1: back in that game from Miami, but they actually brought
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 1: him off the bench. He played like twenty something minutes
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 1: off the bench, so he played a decent amount of minutes,
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 1: but they I think didn't want it to affect like
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 1: their continuity, so they brought them off the bench. But
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 1: I don't know what happened in that game, and there's
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 1: no excuse for Miami losing like that by almost thirty
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 1: points in a game where they should have zigzagged a bit.
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 1: It was a bad spot for Minnesota. I'm pissed because
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 1: we got that game completely wrong. But Miami should bounce
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 1: back from that. I would imagine second game with Hero now,
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 1: maybe he re enters the starting lineup. I don't know,
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 1: but he is back. They get Chicago here. I think
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 1: Chicago probably still without Josh Giddy. Chicago just played Boston
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 1: and Detroit, and Chicago was in this game man last night,
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 1: so I'm pissed about that too. That was a loser
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 1: last night. Chicago was winning the game outright in the
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 1: third quarter by seven, I think seven points or something
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 1: like that, and then they were still within like four
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 1: or five points in the middle of the fourth quarter.
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 1: I don't know what happened for them to not even
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 1: cover that number. Now they get Miami here and it
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 1: is technically a return home spotled though only after going
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 1: to Boston and Detroit. They are on a back to
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 1: back though a third game in four days. Oh and
• 1:11:33
  Speaker 1: by the way, they're in a fifth game in seven days.
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 1: The dreaded fifth and seven for Chicago. This one I
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 1: like a little bit better than the Indiana one, though
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 1: I like the heat a little bit better. I would
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 1: play the heat in this one. You have to lay
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 1: seven and a half with them, though they're out from
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 1: five and a half to seven and a half. But
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 1: I would still lean that way, although it's kind of
• 1:11:53
  Speaker 1: you're losing a little bit of value because it's gone
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 1: through that key number. I don't know why it moved
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 1: like that, to be honest. Like the injury news, I
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 1: don't really get it because Hero came back last game,
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 1: so there's no real heat injury news here for the Bulls.
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 1: Like I don't know if Gidey was supposed to come
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 1: back and he's still not. I'm assuming he's not because
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 1: if he was back, I don't think the Heat would
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 1: be this big of a favorite. Fifty six percent of
• 1:12:15
  Speaker 1: tickets on the Bulls, fifty five percent of the cash
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 1: on the Heat. I still agree with the heat in
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 1: that game, Cleveland is that Minnesota. I still continue to
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 1: say that Cleveland's not as bad as their record looks,
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 1: by the way, and the oddsmakers continue to tell you
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 1: that too. Cleveland, they were coming off a couple of
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 1: big games. Member they beat Denver even though it was
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 1: without Jokic. Then they played Detroit really close. So Cleveland
• 1:12:39
  Speaker 1: had a bad game. The next game after that against Indiana.
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 1: They almost lost to Indiana. I think Cleveland should be
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 1: in a more focused spot. Hear and bounced back from that.
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 1: That was basically a sandwich spot with Minnesota being a
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 1: better team up next. Now, Minnesota, they have still struggled
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 1: when stepping up a class to some extent. Man, I mean,
• 1:13:00
  Speaker 1: Minnesota still doesn't have that many wins against winning teams,
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 1: although they've been better recently. They are coming up that
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 1: win over Miami where they absolutely just demolish Miami. So
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 1: even though this is Cleveland, it is somewhat of a
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 1: big game here. I like the Cavs in this game.
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 1: Minnesota just might be feeling a little bit too high
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 1: on themselves after that last game. The money agrees with
• 1:13:20
  Speaker 1: me on this as well. The Tea Wolves already dropped
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 1: from a four point favorite to a two point favorite.
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 1: Now for Cleveland, you do have to take into account
• 1:13:27
  Speaker 1: the injury situation because I think Donovan Mitchell has missed
• 1:13:31
  Speaker 1: time recently, though it might have been just for rest.
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 1: Let me see, Yeah, he didn't play against against Indiana,
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 1: but I think it was just rest. There's no real
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 1: news for him, so I don't think he was injured.
• 1:13:42
  Speaker 1: I think they rested him in the Indiana game, so
• 1:13:45
  Speaker 1: that was another thing where Cleveland. I think they just
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 1: decided to not throw their full effort in that game.
• 1:13:50
  Speaker 1: So Mitchell will be back, and I don't consider this
• 1:13:52
  Speaker 1: to be a reverse injured player spot because again, it
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 1: was just a scheduled rest for Mitchell. Seventy four percent
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 1: tickets and only fifty five percent of the cash on
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 1: the t Wolves, and the oddsmakers are kind of telling
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 1: you that these teams are at least pretty much about even,
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 1: with the t Wolves basically being just home court at
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 1: this point here. So lean to the Calves in that one.
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 1: Cleveland is good. Yeah, they're better than the record looks
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 1: for sure. They've had some injuries and whatever. So I
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 1: think the Pacers are my least favorite opinion in the NBA. Actually,
• 1:14:24
  Speaker 1: I like the Heat better than that. I like the
• 1:14:25
  Speaker 1: Calves better than that, But that's not the game that
• 1:14:28
  Speaker 1: I like the most, because this last one is. Yeah,
• 1:14:35
  Speaker 1: the game that I like the most is Dallas minus
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 1: seven against the Jazz. The market seems to be all
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 1: over this. Avs are up from six and a half
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 1: to seven. I mean, if you can get six and
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 1: a half, that's even better because you're off the key
• 1:14:47
  Speaker 1: number seven. Seventy three percent of the cash on Dallas,
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 1: sixty six percent of the tickets on the Jazz. This
• 1:14:53
  Speaker 1: is a spot that I like quite a bit on
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 1: both sides of the equation. And it looks ridiculous to
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 1: be laying seven points, right, Why would you lay seven
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 1: on the road to the fourteen to twenty three team
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 1: the Jazz. They're a little bit better at home. I
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 1: know eight and eleven. MAVs are off on the road
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 1: at four and twelve, So like, why would I want
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 1: to do this? Well, it's about the spot, as it
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 1: always is for me. Dallas is coming off barely getting
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 1: by Sacramento, and they did have some days off prior
• 1:15:19
  Speaker 1: to that, but they were coming off beating Houston the
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 1: game before that. Man, Dallas was coming off a monster win.
• 1:15:25
  Speaker 1: I told you I thought it was a bit of
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 1: a letdown spot and they still won against Sacramento, but
• 1:15:30
  Speaker 1: they played poorly and didn't cover the number and whatever.
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 1: Although interestingly, by the way that Dallas was I think
• 1:15:36
  Speaker 1: probably about a three point favorite there in that one,
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 1: another seven point favorite here. So what's going on with
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 1: Utah here? Because Sacramento is the worst of those two teams.
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 1: You would think now Dallas is coming off of that.
• 1:15:47
  Speaker 1: It was an escape. It was a bad performance against Sacramento.
• 1:15:51
  Speaker 1: I know they're having to go into elevation here or whatever.
• 1:15:53
  Speaker 1: Dallas did have some rest prior to that game. I
• 1:15:56
  Speaker 1: think the spot sets up a lot better for them
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 1: than it does for Utah though, because Utah is returning
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 1: home from a road trip that they've been on since January. First,
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 1: they went out to the Pacific Coast. They played three
• 1:16:07
  Speaker 1: games out of the Pacific time zone. Then they took
• 1:16:09
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma City into overtime last night. I mean, I think
• 1:16:14
  Speaker 1: you just have to fade them after that. That was
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 1: a monster performance for Utah, almost beating Oklahoma City in
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma City as huge underdogs last night, they fell just short.
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 1: And on top of that, they have to return home
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 1: from this entire road trip, which is gonna be like
• 1:16:30
  Speaker 1: I said a lot of times, it's a distracted spot.
• 1:16:33
  Speaker 1: Dallas is not exactly the team you're gonna have a
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 1: ton of focus on. They're playing a third game in
• 1:16:37
  Speaker 1: four days as well, a fourth game in six days,
• 1:16:39
  Speaker 1: in a fifth game in eight days, in a sixth
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 1: game in ten days as well, so their schedule has
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 1: been pretty jammed. I think it's a horrible spot for
• 1:16:47
  Speaker 1: the Jazz. We'll fade them here. The injury situation, You're like,
• 1:16:51
  Speaker 1: what's going on with this number? Man? Because there isn't
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 1: really any injury information on the Utah side other than
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 1: we already knew Kessler was out for the season, So
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 1: why is this line where it is for Dallas. I
• 1:17:03
  Speaker 1: don't exactly know. The injury sheet is like pretty clean
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 1: for Dallas except for the fact we already knew Kyrie
• 1:17:10
  Speaker 1: and Derek Lively have both met out for a long time,
• 1:17:13
  Speaker 1: so that's not changing anything. PJ. Washington is the only
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 1: other guy listed. He's not gonna play. It looks like
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 1: he's doubtful. He got injured in the Houston game. I
• 1:17:22
  Speaker 1: think it didn't play against the Kings. So the rest
• 1:17:27
  Speaker 1: of the Dallas lineup looks like they're in though, including
• 1:17:30
  Speaker 1: I'm assuming a d is playing, so I don't know.
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 1: I don't exactly know what's going on with this line.
• 1:17:35
  Speaker 1: Maybe the line is a little bit high because of
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 1: the rest situation and whatever as well. But again, I'm
• 1:17:42
  Speaker 1: just playing the spot. I hate the spot. If you
• 1:17:45
  Speaker 1: want to tie up Dallas and some moneyline Parlay's, you
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 1: could do that, but you know me with Parlays, so
• 1:17:50
  Speaker 1: I think Dallas will get it done. So that is
• 1:17:52
  Speaker 1: my favorite of the situations, at the very least there Dallas.
• 1:17:56
  Speaker 1: Then we do have college football. I apologize Cas Rebels.
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 1: It's Miami and Ole Miss in the what is it
• 1:18:04
  Speaker 1: the Verbo Fiesta Bowl. I don't even know what Verbo is.
• 1:18:07
  Speaker 1: The Fiesta Bowl. It's in Glendale. It used to be
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 1: the Tostidos Fiesta Bowl. Man. That's why it's the Fiesta
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 1: Bowl because you get tortilla chips and salsa. It's a fiesta.
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 1: Come on, man, what happened at Tostidos? Why are they
• 1:18:19
  Speaker 1: not sponsoring this anymore? But this is in Glendale, Arizona,
• 1:18:23
  Speaker 1: of course, where it always is. I don't think the
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 1: location is advantageous for either team. Miami and Ole Miss Obviously,
• 1:18:32
  Speaker 1: Miami is a three point favorite. The money is indicating
• 1:18:35
  Speaker 1: on Miami slightly. This is one of those games where
• 1:18:39
  Speaker 1: if you like Miami, you should lay the three. Maybe
• 1:18:41
  Speaker 1: even with a little bit of extra juice, probably lay
• 1:18:44
  Speaker 1: up to a minus three to minus one twenty with Miami.
• 1:18:47
  Speaker 1: If you like Miami, if you like Ole Miss, you
• 1:18:49
  Speaker 1: could probably get a three and a half somewhere fifty
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on Miami, fifty five percent of
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 1: tickets on Ole Miss. Now it's tough for I don't
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 1: have a play in this game. It's tough for me
• 1:19:00
  Speaker 1: to read the side in this game. Both teams are
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 1: coming off big upset wins. Man. I mean, Miami beat
• 1:19:05
  Speaker 1: Ohio State, who was basically power rated the best team
• 1:19:10
  Speaker 1: in the country, and Miami beat them in an upset,
• 1:19:13
  Speaker 1: And of course it was one of those situations where
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 1: Ohio State had the bye. Those bys hurt men. Indiana
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 1: has been the only team since this college football playoffs started,
• 1:19:22
  Speaker 1: even though I know a couple of the teams that
• 1:19:23
  Speaker 1: had buys last year were just auto buys from being
• 1:19:27
  Speaker 1: conference winners, which they changed this year, but still Indiana
• 1:19:30
  Speaker 1: is the only team to have a bye in the
• 1:19:33
  Speaker 1: first round of the college football Playoff after the restructure
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 1: and actually win the game, I'm pretty sure. So Miami
• 1:19:39
  Speaker 1: took advantage of that bye I think that that Ohio
• 1:19:42
  Speaker 1: State had, even though I really didn't like Miami in
• 1:19:45
  Speaker 1: that game, but I was wrong. They won outright, huge
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 1: win though, beating the team that a lot of people
• 1:19:51
  Speaker 1: thought were gonna win the championship. The public thought Ohio
• 1:19:54
  Speaker 1: State was gonna win the championship. But then on the
• 1:19:55
  Speaker 1: other hand, Ole Miss is coming off a huge win too,
• 1:19:58
  Speaker 1: because everybody's been saying, oh, miscamp win without Lane Kiffin
• 1:20:01
  Speaker 1: and oh yeah, they beat Tulane, but whatever, how can
• 1:20:04
  Speaker 1: Old Miss win with like some of their coaches being
• 1:20:06
  Speaker 1: gone with interim coaches and whatever. Well, Ole Miss just
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 1: beat Georgia, man, and that was a revenge game as well,
• 1:20:13
  Speaker 1: because Georgia beat them in Georgia earlier this year, and
• 1:20:16
  Speaker 1: ole Miss was winning in that game and blew it
• 1:20:19
  Speaker 1: late in that game against Georgia as well the game
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 1: in the regular season, I mean the game that they
• 1:20:24
  Speaker 1: just played, Ole Miss was losing by I think double
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 1: digits in the third quarter two and they still beat Georgia.
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 1: Crazy games. So both of these teams are kind of
• 1:20:34
  Speaker 1: in like sort of in spots where I'd want to
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 1: fade them all though of course there are no letdown
• 1:20:39
  Speaker 1: spots in playoffs, right Like, as far as the playoffs,
• 1:20:42
  Speaker 1: it's like I might consider there to be a letdown
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 1: if it was, like, you know, if Tulane had beaten
• 1:20:48
  Speaker 1: Old Miss or something like that, I would probably fade
• 1:20:50
  Speaker 1: Tulane in the next game because it was like Tulane
• 1:20:52
  Speaker 1: had no realistic expectations to win the championship or whatever,
• 1:20:56
  Speaker 1: so it would be like they would have shot their wad.
• 1:20:58
  Speaker 1: But this is the semi finals. These two teams, they're
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 1: gunning for the championship right now. Man, That's been their
• 1:21:04
  Speaker 1: goal for a while. That's what they're going for here.
• 1:21:07
  Speaker 1: They're two legit teams now. Because the situation I think
• 1:21:12
  Speaker 1: is similar for both teams. Then I think you kind
• 1:21:15
  Speaker 1: of have to go x's and o's, And what we
• 1:21:17
  Speaker 1: have here is a matchup where Miami is the better
• 1:21:21
  Speaker 1: defense and Ole Misses the better offense. That's kind of
• 1:21:24
  Speaker 1: the simple way to look at this game, which is
• 1:21:27
  Speaker 1: why the public is kind of leaning towards Old Miss
• 1:21:29
  Speaker 1: because they like these high flying offenses. Miami has the
• 1:21:33
  Speaker 1: better defense in their offense has struggled. Of course, people
• 1:21:35
  Speaker 1: are not gonna like Miami after not scoring that many
• 1:21:39
  Speaker 1: points in their two playoff games, especially in that ugly
• 1:21:42
  Speaker 1: Texas A and M game, which is a weird, windy game.
• 1:21:45
  Speaker 1: I don't know what that was. So people are gonna
• 1:21:46
  Speaker 1: think Miami can't score enough to hang with Ole Miss. Here,
• 1:21:51
  Speaker 1: the question, of course becomes, is Miami's defense gonna be
• 1:21:54
  Speaker 1: able to slow down Old Misses offense enough to stay
• 1:21:57
  Speaker 1: in the game. I would say yeah in a way.
• 1:22:01
  Speaker 1: But if if Miami was the underdog here, I would
• 1:22:03
  Speaker 1: probably like Miami. But of course the oddsmakers are telling
• 1:22:06
  Speaker 1: you that they're the better team and they're the favorite here,
• 1:22:10
  Speaker 1: you know, I'm still gonna lean with Miami as the
• 1:22:12
  Speaker 1: better defense. That would be my opinion here. The market
• 1:22:14
  Speaker 1: seems like it's indicating that way slightly, and it's going
• 1:22:18
  Speaker 1: against the public in some ways. I think by playing
• 1:22:20
  Speaker 1: Miami here, Miami has more a little bit more experience man.
• 1:22:23
  Speaker 1: I would say with Carson Beck there, though he's not
• 1:22:26
  Speaker 1: the more talented quarterback, I think against Shambless, who's looked
• 1:22:30
  Speaker 1: really good for Old Miss. But Shambless he came into
• 1:22:32
  Speaker 1: the season three games into the season man, And yeah,
• 1:22:35
  Speaker 1: even though he's good, he's a lot more green than
• 1:22:37
  Speaker 1: Carson Beck. Beck has more like big game experience, for
• 1:22:41
  Speaker 1: lack of a better term, let's put it that way.
• 1:22:43
  Speaker 1: So maybe you gotta lean towards him there. And then
• 1:22:46
  Speaker 1: I know the coaching situation is not good on either side.
• 1:22:49
  Speaker 1: You have, Oh Miss, I think is it Jim Moore
• 1:22:52
  Speaker 1: Junior is the interim head coach here or just the
• 1:22:54
  Speaker 1: OC I don't know. But of course Miami has Mario Christobal.
• 1:22:58
  Speaker 1: I mean, he's the more experienced coach, but he's known
• 1:23:00
  Speaker 1: for making dumb decisions in big game well actually usually
• 1:23:04
  Speaker 1: it's more in games against bad teams that he makes
• 1:23:07
  Speaker 1: dumb decisions. So I don't know. We'll see. And the
• 1:23:11
  Speaker 1: other thing about Old Miss, though, is more of their
• 1:23:13
  Speaker 1: coaching staff has left now. So some of the guys
• 1:23:16
  Speaker 1: that were on Mississippi's coaching staff for the first two
• 1:23:19
  Speaker 1: games of the playoff they've actually left. It's insane. In
• 1:23:22
  Speaker 1: the middle of a potential championship run. They had, like
• 1:23:25
  Speaker 1: I think their tight end coach, quarterback coach, and some
• 1:23:28
  Speaker 1: other coach all left this week, which is ridiculous. I
• 1:23:32
  Speaker 1: don't know what ole Miss is gonna do about that.
• 1:23:33
  Speaker 1: How they're gonna respond to that. Now. I've heard some
• 1:23:37
  Speaker 1: of the professional better saying that Miami might be a
• 1:23:39
  Speaker 1: little bit overvalued in this game because they're factoring in
• 1:23:43
  Speaker 1: the ole Miss coaching turmoil into this line here. I
• 1:23:49
  Speaker 1: don't know. I don't know how much it's being factored in.
• 1:23:51
  Speaker 1: I think most power ratings guys do still have Miami
• 1:23:53
  Speaker 1: ranked as a slightly better team though. And that's the
• 1:23:56
  Speaker 1: other thing about this game is seeding wise, Miami's the
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 1: ten seed. Miss This is the sixth seeds, So the
• 1:24:01
  Speaker 1: public always sees those numbers next to those seams and
• 1:24:03
  Speaker 1: they think, oh, the sixth seed is an underdog room
• 1:24:06
  Speaker 1: getting points with the six against the ten. So that
• 1:24:09
  Speaker 1: makes it look a little tempting to take ole Miss
• 1:24:11
  Speaker 1: as well. I lean Miami even but this is gonna
• 1:24:16
  Speaker 1: sound weird, even though I like Miami on the side,
• 1:24:19
  Speaker 1: and it does at least kind of makes sense because
• 1:24:22
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna say that I like the over as well,
• 1:24:24
  Speaker 1: and it does kind of make sense that the over
• 1:24:27
  Speaker 1: would be correlated to a favorite winning because it's easier
• 1:24:30
  Speaker 1: for a favorite to win when it's gonna be a
• 1:24:31
  Speaker 1: higher scoring game. But because ole Miss is the better offense,
• 1:24:35
  Speaker 1: you would think that the over would be correlated to
• 1:24:37
  Speaker 1: ole Miss winning the game. So it's all pretty interesting.
• 1:24:42
  Speaker 1: But I do like the over in this game, and
• 1:24:43
  Speaker 1: the money has concurred with that. It is up to
• 1:24:45
  Speaker 1: fifty two and a half. I don't think we were
• 1:24:47
  Speaker 1: ever gonna see the key fifty one here, but fifty
• 1:24:50
  Speaker 1: three percent of tickets are on the over, sixty four
• 1:24:52
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on the over, so the public
• 1:24:55
  Speaker 1: isn't even really loving the over in this game for
• 1:24:57
  Speaker 1: whatever reason. Miami's office is look bad, but old Missus
• 1:25:01
  Speaker 1: depfense is weak enough. But I think Miami can put
• 1:25:04
  Speaker 1: up some more points in this game. And Ole Miss,
• 1:25:07
  Speaker 1: of course, I don't think their offense is gonna be
• 1:25:08
  Speaker 1: completely slowed down by Miami's defense. So I could see
• 1:25:13
  Speaker 1: this thing getting over and if it's a close game. Basically,
• 1:25:17
  Speaker 1: if both teams get into the mid twenties and it's
• 1:25:19
  Speaker 1: close down the stretch, you're gonna be in decent shape.
• 1:25:21
  Speaker 1: But of course you need both teams to score for
• 1:25:24
  Speaker 1: it to go over, of course. So those are my
• 1:25:26
  Speaker 1: thoughts on that game. And that's gonna do it, man?
• 1:25:32
  Speaker 1: Oh yeah, they can't do tostitos because because of ice,
• 1:25:34
  Speaker 1: it hasn't been tostiedos for a long time. Though. Oh yes,
• 1:25:37
  Speaker 1: Jim Moore, that's right. I played that clip last night.
• 1:25:39
  Speaker 1: But here you go. You know, uh, playoffs. Don't talk
• 1:25:44
  Speaker 1: about playoffs. You kidding me? Playoffs? I just hope we
• 1:25:49
  Speaker 1: can win a game, another game. I think Jim Moore
• 1:25:52
  Speaker 1: Senior is still alive too. I think I think they
• 1:25:54
  Speaker 1: had him do the playoff thing, not that long ago.
• 1:25:57
  Speaker 1: I don't know, I don't I don't remember. I think
• 1:25:59
  Speaker 1: some on reporter had him say it. All right, that's
• 1:26:02
  Speaker 1: gonna do it, man, Jeffrey. Thanks for hanging out. Thanks
• 1:26:06
  Speaker 1: for hanging out everybody. I appreciate it. And once again,
• 1:26:09
  Speaker 1: the plays that I have today are hopefully we can
• 1:26:11
  Speaker 1: get back on the winning side here me because I
• 1:26:13
  Speaker 1: know I'm delving into the ugly college basketball card here
• 1:26:17
  Speaker 1: with Campbell minus the points. Although again, these lines that
• 1:26:20
  Speaker 1: I'm giving out given out here have already moved for
• 1:26:22
  Speaker 1: the most part, so the market is agreeing with all
• 1:26:24
  Speaker 1: of these except the Pacific one a U team Martin.
• 1:26:28
  Speaker 1: I found a great money line price on it, but
• 1:26:30
  Speaker 1: you might have to lay the points with them. Now
• 1:26:33
  Speaker 1: Little Rock plus the points, Pacific minus the points, or
• 1:26:36
  Speaker 1: a small money line price there depending on what numbers
• 1:26:39
  Speaker 1: are out there. And the MAVs. I know the numbers
• 1:26:42
  Speaker 1: a little crazy, but all about the spot the MAVs
• 1:26:45
  Speaker 1: minus the points. We got to get back on the
• 1:26:47
  Speaker 1: winning side. That's gonna do it. I appreciate it. Everybody.
• 1:26:50
  Speaker 1: Learn it tode on Instagram, learn a toad on Twitter.
• 1:26:53
  Speaker 1: Check it all out. You can check out my NFL
• 1:26:56
  Speaker 1: bracket special from last night. I will be talking about
• 1:26:59
  Speaker 1: it with Clint as well, I believe at nine pm,
• 1:27:02
  Speaker 1: so I got to talk to him again. But I
• 1:27:03
  Speaker 1: think we're doing that tonight before the NFL playoffs begin
• 1:27:07
  Speaker 1: this weekend. Obviously, like subscribe here, get me more subscribers,
• 1:27:12
  Speaker 1: likes on the channel here, give me good replies, comments,
• 1:27:17
  Speaker 1: et cetera. Shit on the people that give me negative comments,
• 1:27:21
  Speaker 1: run them out of town. We're on audio as well.
• 1:27:24
  Speaker 1: Good reviews on audio and listening on audio helps me
• 1:27:26
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• 1:27:28
  Speaker 1: my yuke channel on YouTube. You can check that out.
• 1:27:30
  Speaker 1: Patreon dot com will learn to ton it. I know
• 1:27:32
  Speaker 1: I got to get to some of those requests, but
• 1:27:35
  Speaker 1: you can help me out there, some bonus yuke stuff
• 1:27:38
  Speaker 1: I've been I'm I get real busy, man. I apologize
• 1:27:41
  Speaker 1: and my voice sometimes doesn't hold up. I know. I
• 1:27:43
  Speaker 1: did war Pigs the other day just to piss off
• 1:27:46
  Speaker 1: the warmongers, but you know, it is what it is,
• 1:27:50
  Speaker 1: and that one held up to my voice a little
• 1:27:52
  Speaker 1: bit better. What else? Oh, loser Cast we were on
• 1:27:55
  Speaker 1: on Tuesday. There might be a Loser Cast tonight. Leyton's
• 1:27:58
  Speaker 1: been trying to do the Thursday one. I can't do
• 1:28:00
  Speaker 1: it tonight. If they're gonna do one, I don't know
• 1:28:02
  Speaker 1: if they will, but I don't know. But you can
• 1:28:05
  Speaker 1: check that out from Tuesday. Check out the loser Cast show.
• 1:28:07
  Speaker 1: It's on YouTube for now until we get banned, of course,
• 1:28:11
  Speaker 1: and I believe that's it. I was on IF by
• 1:28:14
  Speaker 1: Whiskey last night, so you could check that show out.
• 1:28:16
  Speaker 1: Due that was fun. We did about I think an
• 1:28:18
  Speaker 1: hour and a half on that show, basically a hangout
• 1:28:20
  Speaker 1: talking about current events. We talked about sports, betting as
• 1:28:23
  Speaker 1: well and gambling. Uh So you can check out as well.
• 1:28:27
  Speaker 1: Uh Mark one of the dude, one of the hosts
• 1:28:29
  Speaker 1: of that show. He knows a lot about that industry.
• 1:28:32
  Speaker 1: So it was fun talking to those guys. Mark and
• 1:28:35
  Speaker 1: Jake had a good time there. That's gonna do it
• 1:28:38
  Speaker 1: and I appreciate it. Peace, let's have a let's have
• 1:28:42
  Speaker 1: a good Thursday.