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Reds/Cubs MLB + WNBA Best Bets Tuesday 8/5/25 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Yep. Inside, I want to kill myself. We're on own
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: seven run over the last two days after tonight it
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna start
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I don't
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: even know what to tell you about that. I just
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: don't want to do this anymore. I have never seen
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: anything like this. Man with the slump continuing. Two straight losses,
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: not a good day at all. Oh in four, I
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: have not had a good season. Man with wookends the
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: slump that I'm on, and the slump continues, I've reached
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: a new peak. Actually, I'm going to burn my browins
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: hat Man, I don't know what is going on with
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: the Bruins. Arch hate? Is that what it is? I
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: don't even know it's It's March ninth, I think who
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: even knows? Man, I don't know what data is anymore.
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: But I don't even know what data is anymore. Man,
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: back with you after the worst day that I could
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: possibly have with you, as I always am until I die,
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: at least oh and two yesterday and yesterday it did
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: not go well for me. Oh and five the worst
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: month that I've ever had in my eighteen years doing this.
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: I don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: The slumpy, the slump discontinuous, the slump continues. Somebody fucking
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: kill me, please. I don't even know what I should
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: do at this point, other than potentially end it all.
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: What's up, everybody, It's towed back with you for better
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: off dead. Tuesday, August fifth, We had a winner on
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: the show yesterday. I gave about one play and it
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: was a win, maybe a little bit of a lucky one.
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: I'm Milwaukee. I told you either play the run line
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: or the money line, or split the bet half and half.
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: All of it hit, so it was a winner whatever
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: way you did it. But it did require Milwaukee to
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: score all of their runs on one home run, a
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: three run home when they wound up winning the game
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: three to one, and not the way I expected it
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: to go down. Obviously expected more runs out of Milwaukee there,
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: giving how good their offense is, how they're up against
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: Eric Fetti, and it was on the road, but they
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: still got it done. But they only had three hits
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: in the entire games, So based on that, it was
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: a little bit lucky, but it was a winner. Nonetheless,
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: I'll give out two baseball plays today. They're both going
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: to be totals, and yeah, I mean, I think that's
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: about it. Let's get into it, man. We will talk
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: about the WNBA first though, because there is WNBA today,
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: perhaps unfortunately, but I've committed myself to it. Man, I'm
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: committed to the bit. So we're gonna talk about it.
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: We do a five games Dallas at the New York Liberty.
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: First game up. The Liberty are returning home from a
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: road trip, but they finished the road trip with two
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: straight games in Connecticut, so they're not really traveling that
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: far at this point. They are still returning back home,
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: which still could be a little bit of a distraction
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: playing against Dallas. I think Dallas is just dealing with
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: some injuries right now, not with Becker's, but they do
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: have Harris and heinz al Well. Harris is up for
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: the season. Heins Allen as listed his game time decision.
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: But whatever the case is, the line has gone up
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: on New York from seven to eleven. Now probably seems
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: like a bit of too much of a price to
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: lay there with New York, although they are one of
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: the top teams in the WNBA, Dallas. On the other hand,
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: coming in to start a road trips, the spot is
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: a little bit better for them coming off a couple
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: of losses, maybe a spot to refocus for them. Washington
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: at Chicago and this Chicago team, they are just decimated
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: with injuries. Angel Reese is still out so she's not
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: playing today. They have a lot of injuries. They've lost
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: how many games in a row. I can't even count, seven,
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: maybe eight, whatever that is. They've been awful recently. They're
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: staying at home. They're not really showing any signs of
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: turning this around. The one game that I went with
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: a side on Chicago, they still didn't or I missed
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: by one point and they probably could have won that
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: game out right, and that still didn't happen. It was
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: one of the dildo games. Maybe this will be a
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: dildo game. Washington's going up two straight losses as well.
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: They're playing a second straight road game, but they are
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: the better team. Question is, are you laying too much
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: of a price here at this point with Washington from
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: five and a half to eight now, I mean, maybe
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: that does seem pretty high to me, Although it looks
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: like the money is actually coming in on the Washington side.
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: On the New York game, it looks like the cash
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: is actually coming in on the Dallas side a little
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: bit there. For Washington, it still seems like a bit
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: too much of a price to lay. But the way
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: Chicago's been playing, I mean, I don't see how you
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: can put your money on them unless it's like a really,
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: really excellent spot. And even when it was with mine,
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: they still didn't do it. Emily, what's up? Thanks for
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: hanging out. What's the next game up? Indiana and La.
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: Caitlyn Clark is still out, so this is not gonna
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: be Clark versus Sparks. Caitlin Clark, we don't know when
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: she's coming back. Man, maybe you'll never come back in
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: the WNBA will just fold and collapse. Both teams are
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: actually coming off beating Seattle in their last outing. La
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: did it on the road. They're returning home. Indiana did
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: it at home, I believe, and they are starting a
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: road trop Oh no, they did it on the road
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: to my mistake. So they're actually playing a third straight
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: road game that they are already adjusted to the Pacific
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: time zone. That means Indiana's won five games in a row,
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: which is decently impressive doing that without Caitlyn Clark. I
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: don't have a good read on this game at all.
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: The money is coming in in Indiana, it looks like
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: with more of the cash, and the line initially came
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: out minus one on La and it's flipped all the
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: way to minus two with some of the books on Indiana.
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: So it looks like a legit move to me coming
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: in on the Indiana side. So I guess read into
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: that what you will. I don't really see much of
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: an angle there. Connecticut at Phoenix and Connecticut still the
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: worst team in the league. That's gonna remain the case.
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: Phoenix is returning home from a long road trip, though
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: they were on the road five games in a row,
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: and now they're returning home to face an awful team,
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: So looks like kind of a distraction spot man. You
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: get back home, you have stuff to do, and like,
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: are you really going to be that focused with Connecticut
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: coming into your place? Even though the road trip was
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: pretty unimpressive to say the least, it was not successful,
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: I still don't know the Connecticut's really gonna fully draw
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: out their attention here. Connecticut coming off losing again, what
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: else is new? To the Liberty after they'd beaten the
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: Liberty of the game before that, so it was expected
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: they were going to lose the next game and kind
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: of a zigzag spot there. I would have a slight
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: lean to Connecticut and this one just given the spot
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: Phoenix sitting at like a fifteen point favorite though, I
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: mean it's a huge line, so if you want to
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: take the shot with grabbing the points with Connecticut, that
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: is the way that I would lean. Minnesota at Seattle
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: probably the best game of the entire night as far
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: as a WNBA goes. I mean, none of these games
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: are good, but you know, regrading on the women's curve here,
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: Seattle's lost two games in a row to LA and Indiana.
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: As I said, they did just lose to Indiana. They
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: are staying at home though. This is a big game
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: with Minnesota the team with the best record in the
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: league coming in they are the best team as well.
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: On Minnesota coming off a historic win basically where they
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: beat Vegas, and I actually thought it was a bad
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: spot because Minnesota had just exacted finals revenge beating beating
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: the Liberty who had beaten them in the finals last year.
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: That was a huge win. From Minnesota. And what did
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: they do? They turned around, went to Vegas and they
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: embarrassed Vegas one hundred and eleven to fifty eight. Absolutely ridiculous.
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: So this is the type of spot where you gotta
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: look to fade Minnesota. I mean Minnesota. They shot out
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: in their minds in this game, Dude, something like this
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: is never gonna happen again. Fifty nine point two percent
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: of the field and sixty three percent from three. You
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: have to be kidding me. That's not gonna happen again.
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: But the problem that I have with wanting to take
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: Seattle here, I would agree with Seattle in general. Seattle's
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: actually a favor here. So I saw that number, I
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: was like, yeah, that doesn't totally make sense, Like what's
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: going on? Although obviously public looks at this, they're gonna say,
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: how am I getting Minnesota as an underdog? As the
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: team with the better record here looks very tempting to
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: take Minnesota. So again I would lean to Seattle for
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: that reason. Fifty three percent of tickets, eighty four percent
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: of the cash coming in Seattle, they're minus two and
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: a half point favorite here. Again, I still think this
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: is probably the best lean of the day actually to Seattle.
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: But the problem that I have with this is that
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: Minnesota is now they're in an injured player spot. Now
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: they are gonna be without call here for like two weeks,
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: and she's potentially gonna be the MVP of the league.
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: She was a heavy favorite to win MVP this year
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: with the way that she's been playing, and now she's
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: out with a sprained ankle for multiple weeks and this
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: is gonna be her first game out. So you know,
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: I always say the first game out, the team usually
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: tends to step up their game a little bit, knowing
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: that they have to compensate for that star player being out.
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: So I don't really want to fade Minnesota just for
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: that reason. Otherwise I'd be doing it like we'd probably
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: be getting Seattle as like basically an underdog in this game.
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: It would be I think, a great play on Seattle.
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: I still lean to Seattle given the situation, but the
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: injured player theory spot gives me hesitation there, so that
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: will not be an actual play for me. We'll move
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: on to Major League baseball here where I am gonna
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: have two plays. Like I said, we have no afternoon
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: baseball here, though sometimes we do on a Tuesday. Not
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: the case today. Everything starts in the evening with this
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: great matchup between Houston and Miami. Houston won eight to
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: two yesterday. Miami. I mean again, I think they've been
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: playing well above their pay grade and they're not as
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: good as they look. But for this game, we don't
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: know who Houston starter is gonna be, So that's kind
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: of an issue trying to handicap this game, and it
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: kind of that's kind of an issue for Houston. Man,
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: if they're gonna go with the bullpen game, I don't know.
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: Houston's bullpen is pretty good though they only used three
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: relief pitchers yesterday, so Houston has the bullpen edge, even
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: though Miami did only use one relief pitcher yesterday. Both
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: bullpens set up pretty decently in this game, but Houston's
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: is the better bullpen. We know that cal Quandrill is
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: pitching from Miami four point seven to ninety RA one
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: point three to one WHIP on the season, not great.
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: He has been better at home though, four point two
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: to two ERA at home, and he's actually been better
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: recently this month two point nine two ERA. Miami's won
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: like a bunch of his recent starts. He've actually won
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: eight of his last nine starts twenty one to four
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: strike at walk ratio in the month of July, and
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: he's allowed one run combined over his last three starts
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: in a sixteen inning stretch. So he is actually pitching
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: pretty well right now. He's not racking up a lot
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: of strikeouts or anything. He's not putting a lot of
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: guys on base and not allowing a lot of runs,
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: so he's actually pitching well surprisingly right now. His numbers
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: against Houston are not really that good, and seventy six
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: at bats nine to seven strike at walk ratio, Walker
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: actually destroys him seven point fifteen with a couple of homers.
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: He's allowed of two eighty nine batting average to Houston
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: seven ninety seven ops. Not sure if Quantrill, even though
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: he is in good form right now, not sure if
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: he's really the guy that you want in this game.
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: The way this is setting up right now, I mean,
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: it almost looks like maybe you could potentially take a shit
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: with the over the eight and a half here, just
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: because we don't even know what's going again, we don't
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: know what's gonna happen. If it's like a Houston bad
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: starter or bullpen game up against Quantrille. But again, I
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: don't know if you really want to fade quantrum Man
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: because recent form does matter, and that that up against
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: matchup stats. I have a hard time, you know, kind
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: of deciding which of the two is the more important
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: of the two, So I usually just stay away from
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: those games. The money line and this is basically close
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: to like minus one ten on both sides. It's kind
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: of moving around right now. And again we don't know
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: who Houston's starter is. It's a very difficult game to
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: handicap Minnesota at Detroit. Detroit got the win yesterday. Minnesota,
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: I don't even know who they wound up with a
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: starter yesterday, but it didn't work out for them whatever
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: the case was, even though Detroit was coming up that
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: big ESPN Sunday night game returning home from it, so
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: it wasn't a very good spot for Detroit, and they
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: still got the win yesterday. Detroit does the better of
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: the two bullpens here, Minnesota's certainly not very good. Detroit
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: used three relief pitchers yesterday, in Minnesota only used two.
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: That kind of saved most of their better relievers. But
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: I would still give the bullpen edge to Detroit. Houston,
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: by the way, as the offensive vege o from Miami,
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: Detroit has the offensive edge here over Minnesota. I don't
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: think that's really going out on a limb, hear Zebi
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: Mattews returning to the rotation here for the Twins five
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: point six seven ERA one point four to one whip.
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: His numbers are not good this year. A six point
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: six y three ERA on the road. That's pretty bad.
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: So he's been definitely struggling, although he's shown some signs
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: of being able to do something man, because he has
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: a seventeen to one strike up walk ratio over his
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: last three starts in July, the last time he came back.
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: I believe he's been up and down between the miners
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: and the majors. Year. He gave up a lot of
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: runs though, I mean that was the thing. He gave
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: up a lot of hits and a lot of runs.
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: Not a lot of home runs though, But his command
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: was good, good strikeout rate and not a lot of walks.
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: So he looks like he is able to compete at
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: the major league level. And fools, it seems like he
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: kind of just got hit by some timely hitting, maybe
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: threw too many pitches over the plate there. I'm not
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: going to write off Matthews yet, man, because he does
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: have good stuff, so I think his ceiling is definitely
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: a lot higher than what we've seen so far. Detroit
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: has actually never faced him before, so these young pitchers,
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: as I always say, when the opposing lineup has never
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: seen them before, the young pitcher can have an extra
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: advantage there over those hitters because the hitters don't really
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: know what to expect. So I don't really hate Matthews
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: in this matchup, and he's probably gonna be pumped to
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: get another shot pitching at the majors again. Well, actually
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: he's been in I mean he's he hasn't really, I
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: don't think he's been sent down to the miners actually,
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: since he's been back up in July. I think he
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: last pitched like in late July, so it's not like
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: he's been out of the rotation for very long. Chris
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: Paddock pitching for Detroit. They got him from Minnesota, so
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: he might actually step up for this game because Minnesota
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: traded him away. Now he's on a contender here, so
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: he might get pumped up to face his former team
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: for the first time. Man, it's an interesting situation here.
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: Four point seven to seven ERA for him, one point
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: two to four with very mediocre numbers, four point two
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: ERA at home, which was of course almost entirely with Minnesota,
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: but he did have one game at home with Detroit.
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: His one game was good with Detroit. You only gave
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: up one run in six innings against Arizona. Over his
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: last two starts, one with Minnesota, one with Arizona, one
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: with Detroit. He faced La and Arizona and he went
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: twelve innings only along seven hits, tour in runs total,
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: thirteen strikeouts and no walk So he's in good form
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: over his last two starts, even though he was kind
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: of struggling leading up to that. Is a strikeout walk
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: ratio has been pretty good this entire time leading up
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: to that, So maybe we are going to get a
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: good start out of Paddock here. For those reasons in
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: Minnesota basically has never faced him before. Only former Reds
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: Christian Vazk has has seen him before and he's zero
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: for two off en so both starters very unfamiliar to
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: the opposing hitters here. I would probably want to avoid
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: Minnesota's bullpen, although again, they rested their whole bullpen yesterday,
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: so I'm leaning towards an under in some way in
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: this game, man. Although we have sixty percent of taket
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: seventy six percent of the cash on the over, totals
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: just kind of hanging out at eight and a half.
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: DraftKings is lower though at eight, so well, juice to
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: the over, though that kind of concerns me a little
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: bit because DraftKings usually is the square or books. It
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: looks like some of the more professional money might actually
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: be taking the over here. I don't really agree with that, man.
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: I kind of like bull starting pitchers. If you want
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: to avoid Minnesota's bullpen, you could go first five innings
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: under as well. I think the bullpen's are rested though,
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: so it seems like it could be a full game
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: under as well. To me, there that that's a lean
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: for me in that one. San Francisco at Pittsburgh is
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: one of my plays, so I will skip it for now.
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: I told you I have twots odal, so you probably
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: know exactly what I'm doing. Baltimore at Philadelphia, I mean,
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: this is a pretty ugly pitching matchup here. Baltimore won
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: yesterday and another ugly game. Ugly for Baltimore at least
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: a Philadelphia on one. Excuse me, I don't know if
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: I accidentally said Baltimore. Philadelphia beat Baltimore thirteen to three yesterday.
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia has the better of these two bullpens. Only used
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: two relief pitchers yesterday as well. Baltimore used three, so
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: we give the bullpen edge to Philly. They obviously have
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: the better offense. Dean Kreamer will be pitching for Baltimore
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: here four point two seven e RA one point two
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: seven WHIP and neither of these bullpens are that good,
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: by the way, so I will point that out. Creamer
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: never been a fan of him, obviously, his numbers are
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: not terrible this year. He has been pretty terrible on
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: the road though. Five point three to seven roady RA
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: not a good sign. Recent form not great either. Baltimore
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: lost his three his last three starts. He's walked multiple
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: guys in all three only when five innings last out
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: against Toronto, loved three or runs. I mean, he's at least,
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: I guess, been serviceable over the last month twenty six
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: to nine strike a walk ratio four point three e
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: RA Creamer is creaming. Basically, he's doing exactly what you expect,
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: pitching mediocre in a very mediocre fashion, I guess surprisingly
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: decent numbers against Philly in twenty three at bats five
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: to five strike at walker ratio is not good, but
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: two seventeen average allowed seven to forty eight ohps still
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: not really that high. So Creamer maybe he'll come out
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: and have an okay game here. And he's going up
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: against Taiwan Walker, which is never a good thing for
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia really, and you see that he's the listed starter.
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: He doesn't go deep into games man, so you're gonna
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: get Phillies. Not very good bullpen probably coming into this
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: game somewhat early on a three point eight two ERA
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: one point three to six whip for Walker. He's worse
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: at home four point seven eighty r at home, so
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: both starting pitchers are on the worst end of their
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: home road splits here over the past month. Three point
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: eight Era looks pretty good. Came off only along tour
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: in runs to the White Sox, but he didn't strike
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: out anybody in that game. Has an eleven of four
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: strike at walker ratio over the past five starts, not
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: a high strikeout rate. He's not walking a lot of guys,
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: but he's allowed seven home runs over his last three
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: he starts, which is a huge problem. He's allowed too
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: many hits over those starts as well, so he's getting
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: hit hard. So that's really his problem. He's not walking guys.
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: But despite what his name is, he should be called
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: Taiwan a hitter I guess or whatever it would be,
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: because he's given up a lot of hits. Man not great.
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: His numbers are good against Baltimore though, in forty three
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: at bats thirteen to two strikeout walk ratio one sixteen
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: batting average, allowed four to eleven ops, so surprisingly he's
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: actually pretty much dominated Baltimore. To me, though, I just
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: don't think I could trust Walker at all Man, So
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: to me, this seems like it's an over game for me.
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: We have fifty percent of take as ninety percent of
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: the cash on the over. It's a very high total.
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: It's already gone up from nine and a half to
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: being juiced to the over, and then some of the
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: books are already at ten as well. Bookmaker's still sitting
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: at nine and a half, so again you're not missing
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: out on the key side of the key number. Of
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: nine because it already was nine and a half, so
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: if you're going old, not too much of a difference
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: between nine and a half and ten. But I would
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: be leaning into the over. Don't really like either starter
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: or either bullpen, and they're on the worst side of
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: the splits. I just hesitate because the matchup numbers are
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: pretty good for both pitchers, but I think you have
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: to kind of dial that back a little bit. So
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: probably an over is the lean. There A's at Washington.
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: These teams were both off yesterday, Washington staying at home
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: after getting swept by Milwaukee. They've lost five games in
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: a row, and they might want to bounce back here
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: because they got absolutely embarrassed by Milwaukee. Man they give
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: up double digit runs in two of the three games.
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: They give up eight runs in the other game. That's
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: not good obviously, so they may want to bounce back here.
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: The A's are starting a road trip, could potentially be
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: a focused spot for the A's. I mean, this is
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: a battle of two teams that know that they're out
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: of it. Both bullpens are terrible, so even though they're
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: rested bullpens, I would probably not want to factor the
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: bullpens into my handicap as far as expecting them to
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: be good. Luis Severino pitching for the A's, maybe you
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: could expect him to be alright. I know his numbers
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: are bad on the season four point eight three ERA,
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: one point three to five whip. He has some of
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: the most insane home road splits that you'll ever see.
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: Though he's been way better on the road three point
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: zero three ERA, and he actually is coming up a
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: good home start where he went five innings give up
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: one run against Seattle. He's actually in decent form right
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: now over the past month. The A's of one of
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: his last three outings twenty seven to eight strike a
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: walk ratio. Over the past month, last three outings, he's
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: on five or more innings in all of them. Two
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: of them were on the road. But so is this
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: one A three point eight one ERA over that span,
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: and against Washington, I believe he actually does have good numbers. Yeah,
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: and forty two at bats eleven to four strike a
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: walk ratio, only one extra base hit a double from
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: low one point four to three R Excuse what I
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: keep saying that one forty three batting average allotted three
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: eighty four oh ps. So seven Reno. He's better on
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: the road. He's in decent form right now, and he
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: has good numbers against Washington, So that's kind of the
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: trilogy there, which leads me to expect that seven Reno
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: will actually have a good game here. He's going up
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: against Mackenzie Gore, who is definitely a real strikeout guy.
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: But he has his struggles, man, especially with the walks.
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: Three point eight ERA this year. One point two to
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: nine whip is definitely a whip that's a bit high,
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: a little bit better at home. Three point six EIGHTYRA
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: at home, so both pitchers are on the right side
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: of their splits. He's coming up some shaky outings though. Man,
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: he walked nine over the previous two outings prior to
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: his last outing, and then his last outing excuse he
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: gave up six earned runs to Houston. Not really that
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: great a sign man over the past month. Maybe he
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: was distracted because he got named in the All Star Game.
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: He pitched in the All Star Game. But six point
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: seven to five RA over the past month in a
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: really bad nineteen to fifteen strike a walk ratio, way
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: too many walks. He's been way too wild. But will
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: he bounce back here, possibly because the a is even
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: though they're a pretty good line up, a bunch of
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: young talent there. Gore does have decent numbers against the
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: hitters that have seen him before, and some of their
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: best hitters have never seen him before. Sixteen of bats,
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: six strikeouts, no walks, no extra base hits, one eighty
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: eight average allowed in three seventy five ops. So Gore
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: may actually pitch well in this game. I would not
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: want anything to do with the bullpens here, but I'm
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: kind of leaning towards a first five under in this game.
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: A lot of activity on the over eighty seven percent
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: of tickets, eighty nine percent of the cash, but I'm
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: not sure that I buy that. I mean again, I
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: think first five under and expecting both starting pitchers to
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: actually put a decent performance out there is the way
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: to go. If you want to go full game just
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: because it's not at the A's stadium and both bullpens arrested,
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: you can have at it. But I just both these
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: are the two worst bullpens in baseball, so I don't
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: really want to do that, So under first five would
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: be the way I would do it. In this game.
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: We see eight and a half's across the board. But Bookmaker,
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: you know which, I consider them to be an indicator
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: book because they cater to the pros. They have the
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: highest juice on the under eight and a half there,
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: so that's kind of an indicator there towards the under,
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: at least for me the way that I read this market.
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: So that's the way that I read that game at
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: the Mets. Mets took a loss yesterday seven to six,
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: and all of the runs were scored after the fifth inning,
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: so I said I was looking leaning towards an under
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: in the game yesterday. There I should have said first
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: five under because I did like the starting pitching better
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: than the bullpens. I'm not loving how how the bullpen's
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: set up in this one. Maybe, as I pointed out yesterday,
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: Cleveland actually has the better bullpen at this point, but
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: they used four relievers yesterday the Mets I used five.
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: I believe in the Railey only pitched, only made three pitches,
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: so he's probably available again today. But I don't really
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: love the bullpens coming into this game. Obviously, by the way,
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: I should mention, the A's have the better offense over Washington,
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: and well, I don't know if that's obvious, but they do.
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: And the Mets have the better offense over Cleveland. That's
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: more obvious. Starting pitching in this game, Logan Allen for
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: Cleveland mediocre numbers four point zero six the RA a
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: pretty high one point three to six whip. He has
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: exactly the same ERA home and away, so consistently mediocre man.
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: Over the past month, he's actu been decent three point
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: five two ERA, twenty one to six strike a walk ratio.
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: Doesn't doesn't get a lot of strikeouts, but he doesn't
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: issue a ton of walks. His issue has kind of
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: been the home run ball. He's allowed five home runs
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: over the last month, which isn't that great. He's pitching okay,
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: not allowing more than four earned runs in any start
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: for a couple of months now, actually going all the
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: way back, he's only done it once all season, actually
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: in late April against my boss in Red Sox. So
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: he's consistently not allowing a lot of runs and most
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: of the Mets lineup hasn't seen him before, so maybe
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: he has a little bit of an edge over the
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: Mets guys that haven't seen him before. Although Mullins and
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: Sodo have combined it for a three for five rate
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: off him with five walks and one strikeouts. That's not
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: exactly good for Allen against those two guys. Maybe he
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: does have an edge over the rest of the Mets
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: hitters who haven't seen him before. Clay Holmes has been
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: the better of these two starters three point four to
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: five r for the Mets. His whip is too high
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: as well, though, one point three to two, So that
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: again one of those guys where I keep thinking, how
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: could his whip be that high and as ERA still
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: be that low. He's done a little bit worse at home,
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: but his numbers are really close ERA wise. Not coming
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: off a good outing where you give up eight hits
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: against San Diego and somehow limited them to tour in runs.
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: A couple of unearned runs came home, though only lasted
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: three and two thirds in that game. Not a good start.
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: He's been really shaky over the past month four point
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: nine to one ERA, sixteen to eleven strike at walk
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: ratio very shaky, and it goes back to the previous
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: month two So again, his strikeout walk ratio is really
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: bad right now, and it leads me to believe that
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: Holmes has to suffer some sort of regression here with
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: his era. Maybe it won't happen here, though, because his
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: numbers are good against Cleveland, they're not a good lineup.
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: Thirty at bats, he only have five hits off him.
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: Fry does have a home run off him, but not
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: a lot of damage Other than that. Ramirez is two
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: for four with a home run or excuse thee a double,
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: not a home run. Overall one sixty seven average allowed,
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: five sixty five ops nine to four strike a walk ratio,
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: Holmes does do decent against Cleeve. So, even though I
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: have my issues with these pitchers, they walk too many guys,
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: I could see the argument in this game for a
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: first five inning under. I would not want to factor
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: in the bullpens into into that. If I were to
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: go under in this game, could potentially just based on
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: how they match up here. I know I'm going against
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: you know, kind of that recent form argument here, at
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: least with homes. But to me, I think the under
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: might make sense here though we see fifty eight percent
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: of tickets on the under, fifty of the cash on
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: the over, and we basically just see eight and a
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: half across the entire board here a little bit heavier
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: juice at Bookmaker though on the over so maybe the
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: market is disagreeing with me a little bit on that.
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: But I think first five under maybe a way to
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: look in that game. Kind of just like yesterday, where
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: I should have said that that was the lean yesterday
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: instead of the full game Kidsas City at my Boston
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: Red Sox. Red Sox got another win yesterday. They hung on,
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: they almost blew it actually in some way. Yesterday they
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: were winning the game six to one. Earlier in the
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: game they only won eight to five. Red Sox. Generally,
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: I would say they have the better bullpen over case,
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: but the Red Sox saw a lot of bullpen usage.
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: Five relief pitchers entered the game for the Red Sox
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: yesterday compared to three for Kansas City, including Sam Longo,
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: I believe is a long relief man. So again we're
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: in a simulation man. Great name for that guy. So
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: the bullpen edge kind of shifts towards Kansas City a
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: little bit because of the usage. So I would say
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: that there's not a huge advantage one way or the
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: other with the bullpen's here. Red Sox have the way
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: better offense. Obviously, and I would say the Red Sox
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: have the starting pitching edge as well. Ryan Bergeer is
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: pitching for the Royals. They just they got him right
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: before the trade deadline from San Diego. This will be
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: his first appearance for the Royals. His numbers are actually
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: good on the season, two point seven to eighty R,
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: a one point one to eight whip, and he is
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: going from one pitcher friendly park in San Diego to
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: another with Kansas City. But he's not pitching one tonight
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: because Fenway is not a very pitcher friendly park. Brig
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: Aire is better on the road, though, which does surprise
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: me with San Diego being so pitcher friendly. He has
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: one point nine to SIXTYRA on the road this year.
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: San Diego had won a bunch of his recent outings. Actually,
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: going back the full season, san Diego had won eight
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: of his ten outings, so that's kind of crazy. But
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: he doesn't go deep into games. Man his last couple
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: of outings, even though he only allowed three on runs
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: across eight and two thirds innings, he walked six guys.
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: He struck out eleven, so strikeout rate was high, but
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: the walk rate is way too high right now. Man,
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: so Bregeer. I don't know how his whip is that low.
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: I guess he's that unhittable, not allowing that many hits
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: because he's wild man. He's got a decent strikeout rate
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: and a really high walk rate and a really low
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: hit rate. So that's what you're gonna get out of
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: Brigere here, and the Red Sox have never faced him before,
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: so maybe he has a little bit of an edge
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: while he's in there against the Red Sox because they
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: haven't seen him before. But I would expect Bregere highly
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: likely to be the first of the starting pitchers out
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: of the game here, So it's highly likely Kansas City
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: goes to their bullpen sooner than the Red Sox do here,
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: which might kind of counteract the fact that Kansas City
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: has a more rested bullpend here because the Red Sox
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: have Garrett Crochet on the mound. I mean, we know
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: how good he is two point two to three ERA
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: one point zero nine whip on the season, started racking
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: up a bunch of wins since the Red Sox started
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: hitting as well, so he's getting his run support behind
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: him now a little bit. He's been slightly worse at
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: home two point four two ERA, probably expected because it's
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: a hitter friendly ballpark. Last month, he's been good as usual,
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: not a looting more than tour in runs in any
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: of the starts. Red Sox have won all of his
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: starts this month, have won five in a row of
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: his starts, and they've won nine of his last ten starts.
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: He has a thirty one to six strike a walk
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: ratio of the last month as well, one point seven
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: to three ERA. We get it. He's good. He's facing
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: a really weak case C lineup here, and even though
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: he was in their division last year, so they're somewhat familiar,
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: and they have not hit him well in thirty four
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: at bats one extra ma hit a double from WIT
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: thirteen strikeouts to two walks and a lot of strikeouts
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: one seventy six average four to twenty eight ohps. So Crchet,
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: you got to give him the upper hand. And the
• 30:10
  Speaker 1: starting pitching matchup here as well could be an early
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: under in this game, though, which is kind of what
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: my thoughts are in this game. I don't necessarily want
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: to deal with the bullpens here because they're both kind
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: of unrested to some extent. Although the money's coming into
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: the under two seventy five percent of tickets, eight and
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: nine percent of the cash on the under money somewhat
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: on the Red Sox seventy eight percent takets ninety four
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash. Red Sox way too heavy a
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: favorite though. In the minus between minus two thirty and
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: minus two to fifty, basically depending on which book you're
• 30:39
  Speaker 1: looking at, it's a very very high number there. I
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: think first five inning under could make sense, but the
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: totals already down to seven and a half. Juice to
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: the over. You may still find it an eight out
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: there like a Draft Kings, although it is juiced to
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: the under there a bit. If you can find first
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: first five innings under at a round four, that's probably
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: the way that I would go in that game. And
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: that's not gonna be a play for me, because I
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: just don't know what we're gonna get out of berge
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: Are Curshet should do well for his part, I would imagine,
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: hopefully hopefully I'm right as a Red Sox fan. So
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: those are my thoughts on that one. Brewers at Atlanta.
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: I got the game right yesterday, somewhat luckily, Milwaukee got
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: the win three to one yesterday. We're still gonna give
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee the bullpen edge here. The only use two relief pitchers,
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: just a very light bullpen usage from Milwaukee yesterday. Atlanta
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: not as good. And these three relief pitchers yesterday and
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: their bullpen is not as good as Milwaukee's either, And
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: I think we have a starting pitching edge with Milwaukee
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: as well. With Freddy Peralta pitching three point eighty RA,
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: one point one to three whip good stuff man good
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: numbers on the season. He is worse on the road, though,
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: somewhat significantly four point one nine road ERA. Something to
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: keep in mind. He didn't dwell in his last start
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: UH five and runs allowed, but it was at against
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: the Cubs. He also did walk for uh. Two of
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: his last three starts have been fairly bad, but and
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: then that Cub start he didn't even make it five innings.
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: But the other start was against the Dodgers. Four runs,
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: a lot of five innings, three walks, but those are
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: against elite offenses Man, and that Dodgers was on the road.
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: Cubs is at home. But other than those games, he's
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: been pitching pretty much lights out. So Atlanta's offense is
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: obviously nowhere near as good as the Dodgers or the Cubs.
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: Paralta three point five eighty R and thirty six to
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: twelve strike at walker racer in the past month. The
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: twelve walks again, that walk great skyrocketed a little bit
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: because he faced those two good offenses. So I'm still
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: gonna say that he's I believe he's still in decent
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: form here, should do pretty well in this game. He
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: has nice numbers against Atlanta fifty eight at bats fourteen
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: to seven strike at walker race is not great again,
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: it's too many walks, but one ninety batting average allowed
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: of five eighty seven ops. So Paralta has held Atlanta's
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: offense down well. He's gonna be opposed by Joey Wentz,
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: who basically has been a journeyman this season alone. I
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: believe he's been on three or four different teams five
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: point oh two ERA one point four to four this season.
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: He's basically only in the Braves rotation because they have
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: so many injuries. I don't think he'd be there otherwise.
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: Seven point two ERA at home this season. That's not
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: all with the Braves though. With the Braves he's made
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: four appearances. He only went more than five innings once,
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: which is his last outing, a pretty good six and
• 33:20
  Speaker 1: two thirty eight one hit shutout against Kansas City, but
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: he did walk three guys again. Kn's City is a
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: very weak lineup seven strikeouts as well in that game.
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: Other than that, he's been okay with Atlanta. He only
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: allowed any runs in one outing, but it was against Texas.
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: It isn't really a good offense. I'm not ready to
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: really trust Wens. I mean, his overall numbers are not
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: that good over the course of his career. He's actually
• 33:44
  Speaker 1: been quite awful five point four to five r and
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: one point five to one WHIP, So I don't think
• 33:49
  Speaker 1: we could expect a whole lot out of Wentz here.
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee's got a good offense, even better on the road,
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: even though I know they didn't hit well yesterday. Wentz
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: hasn't been good against him. In a limited sample size
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: twenty one at bats, Milwaukee actually has eleven RBIs off him.
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: They're hitters that are in the lineup right now, which
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: unfortunately does not include Shorrio. Because I like Milwaukee and
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: maybe win the World Series here, but they're gonna need
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: him to come back. Man. It looks like he might not.
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: But either way, even without him, Milwaukee has a three
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: thirty three average and eight to forty ops against Wentz,
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: So Peralta, you got to give him the upper hand
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: in the starting pitching matchup here. So Milwaukee seems to
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: have the starting seems to have the edge across the
• 34:27
  Speaker 1: board again in this game, man offense, starting pitching, bullpen.
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: Money is coming in against them, though they have seventy
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: five percent of tickets, only seventy four percent of the cash,
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: and the line is dropped from similar to where it
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: was yesterday in the minus one forties down into the
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: minus one thirties, so I guess take from that what
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: you will. It's still higher at DraftKings, which is because
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: again DraftKings pretty much always has a higher number on
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: the favorite. They just kind of screw you with the
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: number on the money line there. It looks like Atlanta
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: is taking a little bit of money as the home
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: underdog though, but I don't really see it. I don't
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: see a reason really do that. I mean, professional money.
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: They're always going to be about value though, so they're
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: basically saying we don't think Milwaukee should be that heavy
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: a favorite on the road. But they seem to always
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: think there's value in Atlanta. Man, Oh, Atlanta is better
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: than the record indicates, so well, yeah, that's true. But
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: their season is over now, and it's like, look at
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: this matchup, man, like what do you want? So I
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: don't really love that idea at all. I think Milwaukee
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: probably should win this game. And then the total. We
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: have sixty percent of tickets on the under and fifty
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: one percent of the casual on the under, and it's
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: basically eight juice to the under across the whole board.
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: Difficult to gauge that total there when you have one
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: starting pitcher you think is gonna be good and one
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: who isn't gonna be good. As far as what your
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: expectations are, Reds Cubs. As you can see in that's
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: all in the in the total in the title, it
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: is going to be a total, though I'm skipping that
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: for now. That'll be a best bet. Yankees at Texas,
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: Texas with a win yesterday at extra innings in a
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: crazy game, Texas with a three run walk off home
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: run from Young I guess to finish the game off
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: or Jung, I pronounce it Young though Yong Again, I'm
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: happy about the slide that the Yankees are on right now.
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: Is I'm not a fan of the Yankees. Texas has
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: the bullpen edge here. They have the better bullpen. Did
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: see some bullpen you suggest today? The Texas used John Gray,
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: who is a guy who's been a starter in the past.
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: They used him for a lot of the innings yesterday,
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: so Texas was able to hold their bullpen attacked pretty much.
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: So Texas definitely has the bullpen edge here. Yankees used
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: four relief pitchers yesterday. Texas's bullpen is better anyway, so
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: we'll give Texas the bullpen edge. Yankees obviously have the
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: offensive edge. They have a way better offense than Texas.
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: But I think Texas you gotta give him a starting
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: pitching edge here. And you know me, I like pitching
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: better than I like hitting. Will Warren is pitching. I
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: think pitching a beats hitting more often than it does. Not.
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: Will Warren pitching for the Yankees not having a great
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: season four point six four ERA one point four to
• 36:59
  Speaker 1: three not great, really really bad on the road seven
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: point two erra on the road. He's been way worse
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: on the road than at home. Like insane splits for
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: him coming off a good out and gave up one
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: run against Tampa Bay and six inninges. Of course that
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: wasn't home. Over the past month, his numbers are not good.
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: Five point three four ERA, twenty five to sixteen strike
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: a walk ratio, six home runs allowed him well more
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: than one hit all out per inning, So he is
• 37:25
  Speaker 1: struggling despite that recent good start. I'm not sure if
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: it's gonna continue here, even though Texas is not very
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: good offensively, and he does do well against them small
• 37:34
  Speaker 1: twenty two at bat sample size but only one extra
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: race hit allowed to double to time eleven to one,
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: strike a walk ratio two to twenty seven batting average,
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: five thirty four ohps allowed, So he does have good
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: numbers against this weak Texas lineup. So it is possible
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: Warren does a little bit better this time out. I
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: think I would trust he evolved a little bit more, though.
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: I mean, he's just been the better pitcher on the
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: season by far one point four to nine ERA po
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: point eight nine whip. He's done a little bit worse
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: at home, but still that amounts to one point eight
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: sixty RA. Yeah, I mean, there's no way he can
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: keep these numbers that good for an entire season, so
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: at some point there should be some regression. But he's
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: not a guy that I'm jumping I'm jumping up on
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: my seat to fade man, absolutely not. Texas has won
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: his last five starts, even though they can't even hit.
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: He has a point five to ninety RA over that
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: stretch that was all in July, and thirty to eight
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: strike a walk ratio over that span, really really good,
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: and he had three shutout performances, allowed one and run
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: in the other two starts. Hasn't allowed more than that
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: in any of those starts and win at least five
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: innings in every single one. So yeah, he's obviously in
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: a good for him right now, although the Yankees are
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: gonna be one of the better offenses he's faced. But
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: he did beat them La. He didn't beat them. He
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: bitched well against him, but he got absolutely zero runs apart.
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: They actually lost the game one nothing in New York,
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: even though he went six innings and only allowed one
• 38:56
  Speaker 1: run against him, had a six to one strike a
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: walk ratios. Pitch well against the Yankees on the road
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: this year, and he is good against them in general.
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: Surprisingly one hundred and twenty at bats. He has a
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: ridiculous thirty eight to four strike a walk ratio against
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: the Yankees. Really all the damage from the Yankees comes
• 39:13
  Speaker 1: from Stanton. They have five home runs off him, and
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: four of them are Stanton, so if he pitches around him,
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: you know, he could probably hold the Yankees lineup down.
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: Santon also has struck out fifteen times against him, so
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: it's basically either he hits for like power or he
• 39:28
  Speaker 1: strikes out. There's like no in between him with Stanton.
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: But overall, Evaldi has held the Yankees to a two
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: thirty three average and six point fifty eight ops, so
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: good numbers from me Evaldi. I would lean towards Texas
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: in this game as far as them having the advantage,
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: just because I like pitching over hitting. Money is coming
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: in against it, though, because Texas came out in a
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: minus one forty favorite and they're down to minus one twenty.
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: Basically at most spots now, fifty five percent of tickets
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: on them, seventy two percent of the cash coming in
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: on the Yankees, though. I think the thought is basically
• 39:59
  Speaker 1: the Yankee shouldn't be an underdog. Basically, it's very rare
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: you're gonna see the Yankees as an underdog, man, So
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: I think that's kind of the feeling with the professional
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: better is like, well, the Yankees, they have such the
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: better offense and they're definitely a good team, like they
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: just shouldn't be an underdog to this extent. Really, that's
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: kind of the sense I think from the professional money there.
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: But in this case, I mean, I do still think
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: Texas has the pitching edge around the across the board there,
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: so we'll see what happens. It's pitching up against hitting.
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: I would lean towards pitching, but it's not anything that's
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: gonna make a play for me at all, and I
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: especially would not want to fade that market read there.
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: Colorado hosting Toronto, man, I mean, yesterday's game was ridiculous Toronto,
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: I believe, one fifteen to one yesterday. Toronto does have
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: the better bullpen. Colorado used three relief pitchers pretty extensively yesterday.
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: Rest of their bullpen is rested, but Toronto has the
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: more rested bullpen. They only us two relievers yesterday. Toronto
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: also has the better bullpen. Eric Louerd did indeed do
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: well yesterday, I believe because Toronto only gave him one
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: run I didn't look at at what his pitching line was.
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: But that was the one of the debates we had
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: on the show yesterday, Jay Main pointing out that Lauer
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: had been really bad in his first few starts of
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: his career at Colorado, but he's actually been better there
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: more recently. This Colorado offense is particularly bad. Jose Barrios
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: gets his turn for the Blue Jays three point eight
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: four ERA one point two to six WHIP. He's been
• 41:25
  Speaker 1: better on the road three point three six e R
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: in the road, but Courtsfield might not be as kind
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: to him, and he's not been as good recently over
• 41:33
  Speaker 1: the past month five point eight three ERA, even though
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: Toronto has they won five to six starts over that month,
• 41:40
  Speaker 1: and they've won whatever that is, eight of his last
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: ten starts or something like that, so Toronto has been
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: hitting behind him. But five point eight three ERA this
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: past month twenty two to seven strike a walk ratio
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: not terrific, and he allowed seven on runs over the
• 41:55
  Speaker 1: past month and more than one hit per inning, so
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: he is getting hit around a little bit. And he
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: failed to go five innings in two of those starts,
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: including the most recent one at Baltimore. Which you can
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: kind of forgive him not doing well at the A's
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: Stadium because that's a difficult stadium to pitch in. The
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: Baltimore start maybe a little bit more unforgivable, and not
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: really a great start against San Francisco in there either,
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: So Burrios overall not pitching quite as well here, but
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: he is stepping down in class to face this really
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: weak Colorado offense. A lot of their guys haven't seen
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: him before. Twenty four at bats, only one extra base hit,
• 42:28
  Speaker 1: a double from ourcia. He has seven strikeouts, no walks,
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: one sixty seven average as what he's held them to
• 42:35
  Speaker 1: into three seventy five ops. So overall, Barrios does have
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: the good matchup numbers, but he's not in good form
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: right now. Anthony Malina pitching for the Rockies, bad numbers,
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: seven point two seven ERA, one point five whip. I
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: believe this is gonna be his first start this season,
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: or maybe of his career. Even he has a four
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: point five ERA at home this year, which is interesting
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: and a little bit better my mistake. He made one
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: start for Colorado last year, so this will be his
• 43:01
  Speaker 1: second career start, but he's probably only gonna be an
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: opener man. He hasn't gone more than two winnings in
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: any of his outings this year, so we'll see what
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: happens with him. He does at least have a six
• 43:10
  Speaker 1: zero strikeout walk range, but he's allowed three home runs
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: in eight and two thirds innings, thirteen hits, seven e
• 43:16
  Speaker 1: in runs, so he's not that great, although most of
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: the damage came against Washington, but he's allowed runs in
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: each of his last three outings. The last two were
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: against Arizona and the Dodgers. Even kind of excuse giving
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: up a run in those starts, But I'm not trusting Molina,
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: and you know that means he's only gonna go a
• 43:35
  Speaker 1: couple of innings and then you have to deal with
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: Colorado's bullpen. Good luck with that. It looks like Toronto
• 43:40
  Speaker 1: may be able to win this game again. Here Toronto
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: has four batters so seeing Molina before, they're two for
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: four with a strikeout off him. So I do think
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: Toronto should win this game. But obviously you're gonna pay
• 43:51
  Speaker 1: way too much of a price here for Toronto. They're
• 43:55
  Speaker 1: up in the minds two twenties range. Now bookmaker has
• 43:57
  Speaker 1: them in the two thirties up from two hundreds, so
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: the money actually came in on them. Initially they have
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: ninety five percent of tickets only ninety four percent of
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: the cash. So I don't love that money is coming
• 44:06
  Speaker 1: in in the over, and I don't necessarily disagree with
• 44:09
  Speaker 1: that fifty two percent of the tickets and eighty eight
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash. On the over, it already went
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: up from eleven to eleven and a half. I know
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: that looks it's a high total. It is course field
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: rockies to have a weak lineup, but Barrios hasn't been
• 44:21
  Speaker 1: a great form recently, so even though he does match
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: up well against Colorado, that would be my hesitation with
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: going over here. But I think that's probably the way
• 44:30
  Speaker 1: I would lean is the over, or maybe the better
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: way to do this is Toronto team total over, even
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: though I know they put up fifteen runs yesterday. It
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: almost looks too easy to do it. But do you
• 44:40
  Speaker 1: really expect much out of Molina for a couple of
• 44:43
  Speaker 1: innings and then Colorado's bullpend for the rest of the game.
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: I don't, so I think Toronto over their team total
• 44:48
  Speaker 1: actually kind of makes sense. In that game Tampa at Anaheim,
• 44:51
  Speaker 1: I thought Tampa would put up a good performance yesterday.
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: I leaned towards Tampa yesterday that didn't happen, And somehow
• 44:57
  Speaker 1: Anaheim only gave a one run with Kohai. Know what's
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: I believe is their listed starter yesterday? How the hell
• 45:03
  Speaker 1: does that happen? I don't know what was it going on?
• 45:05
  Speaker 1: It's or getting like Mandela? Would that be the Mandela effect?
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I don't know what them either think. No,
• 45:11
  Speaker 1: it is Kakuchi. What am I saying? That makes more sense?
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: Kakuchi was good howser actually, and one of his worst starts,
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: probably the worst start of the season. Uh, his first
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: start with Tampa, so very unfortunate for him. My mistake
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: was Kakuchi. Anyway, Anaheim is the worst of these two bullpens.
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: I mean that's I'm not you know, going on on
• 45:30
  Speaker 1: a limb there. Anaheim used three relievers yesterday and Tampa
• 45:33
  Speaker 1: I believe only used one or two. Yeah, they only
• 45:35
  Speaker 1: used one. So Tampa definitely is the bullpen edge here.
• 45:39
  Speaker 1: Uh might give Anaheim a slight offensive edge at this point.
• 45:42
  Speaker 1: To be honest, their offense is mediocre, maybe a little
• 45:46
  Speaker 1: bit better than Tampa's. Actually, I'm not sure let's let's
• 45:48
  Speaker 1: see what the stats actually say here? Where? Where are
• 45:52
  Speaker 1: these teams? What are you even looking at here? Maybe
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: not Tampa's Actually no, I'm looking at bullpen stats. When
• 45:57
  Speaker 1: am I talking, I'm like, wait, what, uh, Tampa? Where
• 46:00
  Speaker 1: are we at here? Tampa is fifteenth and Anaheim sixteenth
• 46:03
  Speaker 1: or tie for sixteenth in ops. So they're very, very similar.
• 46:07
  Speaker 1: That explains why I couldn't figure out which one I
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: thought was better. Ryan Pepio's pitching for Tampa. Generally I
• 46:12
  Speaker 1: like him better than Soriano, but in this matchup, I
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: don't think I do three point eighty r N the
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: season one point one eight whip. I've been a Pepio
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: defender man for pretty much his entire career, especially this year,
• 46:27
  Speaker 1: defending him against the advanced analytics guys who don't like him.
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: He's worse on the road four point three r M
• 46:33
  Speaker 1: the road, even though he's a lot a ton of
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: home runs at home in that very home run conducive stadium.
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: The home run ball has been a problem for him.
• 46:40
  Speaker 1: But he's coming off a really bad road start where
• 46:43
  Speaker 1: I thought he would do way better. Against the Yankees,
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: he up seven and runs three walks and four innings,
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: six hits as well, two long balls not good. Tampa's
• 46:51
  Speaker 1: actually lost five starts in a row of his but
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: he wasn't pitching that poorly otherwise in the prior starts
• 46:59
  Speaker 1: he was doing pretty well. But because of these last
• 47:00
  Speaker 1: two starts, so he's walked seven guys, his strike a
• 47:04
  Speaker 1: walk ratio over the past month is now thirty six
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: to fifteen, which isn't that good. And he allowed nine
• 47:08
  Speaker 1: home runs over the past month, So the long ball
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: is an issue for Pepio man five point zero three
• 47:15
  Speaker 1: ra over the past month two definitely having some issues,
• 47:18
  Speaker 1: but overall, I mean he doesn't allow that many hits
• 47:20
  Speaker 1: really overall, and usually his strike out walk ratio is
• 47:23
  Speaker 1: actually fairly good as well, So I do generally actually
• 47:26
  Speaker 1: kind of like Pepio, And normally i'd say, well, I'll
• 47:28
  Speaker 1: give him a pass for a bad start against the Yankees,
• 47:31
  Speaker 1: I think he might bounce back, but in this matchup,
• 47:33
  Speaker 1: I'm not sure. Our twenty two at bats, I know
• 47:35
  Speaker 1: it's a small sample size against the Anaheim here nine
• 47:38
  Speaker 1: to three strike out walk ratio, but Anaeim has a
• 47:41
  Speaker 1: three eighteen batting average off him eight fifty five ops,
• 47:44
  Speaker 1: so they have hit him fairly well, so that does
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: warning me a little bit for Pepio coming into this
• 47:49
  Speaker 1: game up against Jose Soriano, who has a decent ERA
• 47:53
  Speaker 1: three point sixty five, but his whip is really high
• 47:56
  Speaker 1: one point three whip. He's another guy that has a
• 47:58
  Speaker 1: whip that's so high it's like, how could his hera
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: be as low as it is for Soriano. He does
• 48:03
  Speaker 1: get a lot of strikeouts, though he does throw some
• 48:05
  Speaker 1: pretty nasty stuff. He's been worse at home though, pretty
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: significantly four point nine to two home y RA, so
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: he does not pitch well at home. So both starting
• 48:14
  Speaker 1: pitchers here actually are on the wrong end of their
• 48:18
  Speaker 1: their home road splits. He has a thirty one to
• 48:21
  Speaker 1: fifteen strike a walk rights over the past month. That's
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: not that impressive either. Too many walks, way too many
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: walks two point seventy five ERA, though again somehow he's
• 48:30
  Speaker 1: not aligning that many runs. He allowed two or fewer
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: earned runs and all but one start in the month
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: of July in six starts Soriano gets Tampa. His numbers
• 48:41
  Speaker 1: are mediocre. In twenty five at bats it is a
• 48:43
  Speaker 1: small sample size two to eighty batting average, six to
• 48:46
  Speaker 1: ninety three ohps is pretty low though, but still I
• 48:49
  Speaker 1: think the way that I'm looking at this game, I mean,
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: you could argue first five innings towards Anaheim and argue
• 48:55
  Speaker 1: for Soriano having the starting pitching edge over Pepio fifty
• 48:59
  Speaker 1: tickets fifty eight percent of the cash on Tampa though,
• 49:01
  Speaker 1: so the cash team's becoming in on Tampa a little bit.
• 49:04
  Speaker 1: The line has dropped slightly on Anaheim, down for minus
• 49:07
  Speaker 1: won twenty five, down into the minus one twenty range
• 49:10
  Speaker 1: basically at most of these books, first five Anaheim kind
• 49:14
  Speaker 1: of makes sense to me just because of the matchup numbers,
• 49:16
  Speaker 1: but I actually think an over is the way that
• 49:18
  Speaker 1: I'm leaning in this game. I don't see the percentages yet.
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: Although the total dropped kind of from eight and a
• 49:22
  Speaker 1: half down to eight at some of these books, bookmakers
• 49:25
  Speaker 1: still at eight and a half, but juice to the under.
• 49:28
  Speaker 1: But I think with at least one kind of bad
• 49:31
  Speaker 1: bullpend here with Anaheim and not really trusting either start
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: or that much, I mean, I could potentially see an
• 49:36
  Speaker 1: over happening in that game, but I'm definitely not touching
• 49:39
  Speaker 1: that game either. Not gonna be a game I'm gonna
• 49:41
  Speaker 1: give out a play on and again I will remind
• 49:43
  Speaker 1: you that I'm not actually betting these games right now
• 49:46
  Speaker 1: because I need to get some financial stability here first.
• 49:51
  Speaker 1: At least get that first before I start doing what
• 49:53
  Speaker 1: I used to do. But I am giving up plays
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: as if I were betting them White Sox at Seattle.
• 49:58
  Speaker 1: This one is actually somewhat close to being a play.
• 50:00
  Speaker 1: These two teams were off yesterday, so we have rested bullpens,
• 50:04
  Speaker 1: so that's good, even though I don't trust Chicago's bullpen
• 50:06
  Speaker 1: that much. So that's kind of the problem the White
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: Sox because I'm leaning towards under in some form in
• 50:12
  Speaker 1: this game, and I think it's close to being a
• 50:14
  Speaker 1: being playable man with both bullpens being rested. Of course,
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: when teams are off, it can kind of affect they're
• 50:20
  Speaker 1: hitting a little bit and cool them off a little
• 50:22
  Speaker 1: bit too, even though the White Socks have actually been
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: hitting better recently. But this is Seattle. It's a picture
• 50:27
  Speaker 1: friendly park. Yes, Seattle does have the better of the
• 50:31
  Speaker 1: two bullpens. In general. Davis Martin has pitched for the
• 50:33
  Speaker 1: White Sox. He's actually been okay this year three point
• 50:36
  Speaker 1: eight four era one point two to six WHIP, not
• 50:39
  Speaker 1: terrible numbers. Worse on the road though, four point seven
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: road ERA. So Martin does worry me a little bit.
• 50:45
  Speaker 1: And over the past month and two starts seventeen excuse
• 50:49
  Speaker 1: ten to seven strike out walk ratio is not good
• 50:52
  Speaker 1: four point two two eras okay, but that strike out
• 50:54
  Speaker 1: walk ratio is not very good. So he's kind of
• 50:57
  Speaker 1: sliding out of form a little bit right now. Ast Seattle.
• 51:01
  Speaker 1: I believe he does have good numbers though. Yeah, in
• 51:03
  Speaker 1: twenty eight at bats one forty three batting average, a
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: lot of four to fifty ops, so he actually has
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: been good holding Seattle's offense down. And Brian Wu was
• 51:12
  Speaker 1: pitching for Seattle. I mean, there's not a whole lot
• 51:14
  Speaker 1: to say about Wu. We know he's good three point
• 51:16
  Speaker 1: one one ERA, point nine to seven whip. He's really
• 51:19
  Speaker 1: good at home two point twenty nine ERA. Most of
• 51:22
  Speaker 1: Seattle's pitcher is really good at home. He's coming off
• 51:24
  Speaker 1: a start where he inexplicable, kind of inexplicably gave up
• 51:27
  Speaker 1: four home runs, but it was at that ridiculous as stadium,
• 51:31
  Speaker 1: and he somehow still limited them to five earned runs,
• 51:34
  Speaker 1: limited the damage big time. There only and still had
• 51:36
  Speaker 1: a six to one strike a walk ratio, So I'm
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: not ready to say that Wu was out of form
• 51:41
  Speaker 1: really in any way at all. It was just a
• 51:44
  Speaker 1: bad stadium to pitch in thirty one to eight strike
• 51:46
  Speaker 1: a walk ratio over the past month three point six
• 51:48
  Speaker 1: to ninety ra is still quite good. Faced a couple
• 51:52
  Speaker 1: of difficult lineups in there too well, especially the Yankees,
• 51:54
  Speaker 1: and did well in that start. So Wu is still good. Man,
• 51:58
  Speaker 1: going up against who are we talking about here? I
• 52:01
  Speaker 1: already forget the White Sox. Yeah, I mean, even though
• 52:04
  Speaker 1: they've been hitting better recently, still a very weak lineup.
• 52:06
  Speaker 1: They only have seventeen at bats against him, and he's
• 52:08
  Speaker 1: held them to two hits and one extra base hit
• 52:11
  Speaker 1: a home run from Ben and Tendy one eighteen batting average,
• 52:14
  Speaker 1: allowed four to sixty one oh ps, and five to
• 52:16
  Speaker 1: one strike a walk razio. So WU does fitch well there.
• 52:20
  Speaker 1: I'm leaning under in this game, man. Both bullpens are
• 52:24
  Speaker 1: at least rested. You could go first five innings as
• 52:26
  Speaker 1: well if you really don't trust the White Sox pen here,
• 52:30
  Speaker 1: but you'd be probably going under three and a half,
• 52:32
  Speaker 1: which I don't like as much. I would do the
• 52:34
  Speaker 1: under seven and a half full game. It's seven and
• 52:37
  Speaker 1: a half across the board. You can get it at
• 52:38
  Speaker 1: a decent price. I think it around minus one seventeen.
• 52:41
  Speaker 1: Maybe it looks like at some places don't even see
• 52:45
  Speaker 1: the percentages on that ninety four percent of tickets only
• 52:47
  Speaker 1: nine to one percent of the cash on Seattle. Seattle
• 52:50
  Speaker 1: is a huge favorite, but they drop from minus two
• 52:52
  Speaker 1: to fifty into the minus two thirties range of the
• 52:54
  Speaker 1: bookmaker does have a higher number on them. I do
• 52:57
  Speaker 1: still think Seattle is probably the better way to lean
• 53:00
  Speaker 1: in the game, just because they have the better offense.
• 53:02
  Speaker 1: I'd give them a bullpen edge as well, and probably
• 53:04
  Speaker 1: the starting pitching edge too, So I think Seattle should
• 53:07
  Speaker 1: win this game. But obviously I'm targeting the under here
• 53:10
  Speaker 1: as a lean, if not a play. I mean, let
• 53:12
  Speaker 1: me look, because I'm actually tempted, man, in this one.
• 53:15
  Speaker 1: Let me see what we got going on with the
• 53:16
  Speaker 1: totals here. I'm looking right now. Uh, it's tempting for sure.
• 53:24
  Speaker 1: Where are we looking? I'm looking at Action Network right
• 53:26
  Speaker 1: now to see what they have going on with this.
• 53:29
  Speaker 1: I mean, I'll stay off of it, but it is close, man,
• 53:31
  Speaker 1: It's close. To being a play for me. I lean
• 53:33
  Speaker 1: to the under in that game again, either full game
• 53:37
  Speaker 1: or a first five innings. You actually with a total
• 53:40
  Speaker 1: that might even be like in the eight range. Potentially,
• 53:42
  Speaker 1: maybe you could get a decent Maybe you can find
• 53:44
  Speaker 1: a four out there in the first five innings if
• 53:47
  Speaker 1: you want to go under that. San Diego at Arizona.
• 53:50
  Speaker 1: Arizona's won three games in a row now man, even
• 53:53
  Speaker 1: though they sold off at the deadline, they're out of it,
• 53:56
  Speaker 1: but they're playing against the division rival here man, and
• 53:58
  Speaker 1: they showed up yesterday and one to two. Arizona does
• 54:02
  Speaker 1: have the worst of the two bullpens, though pretty significantly.
• 54:04
  Speaker 1: They did only use two relievers yesterday, though, so their
• 54:07
  Speaker 1: bullpens decently rested, more rested than San Diego's a little.
• 54:10
  Speaker 1: San Diego only used two relievers yesterday as well. Still
• 54:13
  Speaker 1: gonna give the bullpen ed to San Diego because their
• 54:15
  Speaker 1: bullpen is way better than Arizona's. Arizona still has the
• 54:19
  Speaker 1: offensive edge in my opinion, even though they sold off
• 54:21
  Speaker 1: some of their guys starting pitching. Interesting matchup here. You
• 54:26
  Speaker 1: Darvish pitching for San Diego. He's coming back from injury
• 54:29
  Speaker 1: and he had a couple of bad starts, and then
• 54:32
  Speaker 1: his last start was actually really good. His overall number
• 54:34
  Speaker 1: is not good so far, six point four to sixty
• 54:37
  Speaker 1: IRA and one point three to five whip That is bad,
• 54:39
  Speaker 1: really bad on the road, eleven point eight to eight
• 54:42
  Speaker 1: roady IRA, and it might not get easier pitching an
• 54:44
  Speaker 1: a pitcher friendly or pitching in a hit or friendly
• 54:46
  Speaker 1: park's using in Arizona. Overall, eighteen to nine strike a
• 54:50
  Speaker 1: walk ratio is pretty alarming. That's not good. But after
• 54:54
  Speaker 1: pitching pretty poorly in all four of his first four starts,
• 54:58
  Speaker 1: he came from out of nowhere and had a set
• 55:00
  Speaker 1: ann two hitch shutout with seven strike outs and no
• 55:02
  Speaker 1: walks against the Mets. He absolutely dominated the Mets. And
• 55:05
  Speaker 1: the Mets are a decent line. I mean, I know
• 55:07
  Speaker 1: they're not in the best hitting form right now. That's
• 55:10
  Speaker 1: an impressive outing for you, Darvish. I know that was
• 55:12
  Speaker 1: at home in San Diego's pitcher friendly park, which he's
• 55:16
  Speaker 1: not going to be in here, So he's not going
• 55:19
  Speaker 1: to do as well as that here. But maybe he'll
• 55:21
  Speaker 1: do okay. I mean, he is seemingly he's rounding it
• 55:24
  Speaker 1: to for him, at the very least darvishon I mean,
• 55:27
  Speaker 1: he's a guy with an arsenal that kind of lends
• 55:29
  Speaker 1: itself to being able to pitch at an older age
• 55:31
  Speaker 1: because he's not really like a velocity type of pitcher.
• 55:35
  Speaker 1: He's a guy that has a ton of different pitches,
• 55:36
  Speaker 1: like seven different pitches, and he tries to fool you
• 55:39
  Speaker 1: with weird off speed stuff. So if he gets his
• 55:42
  Speaker 1: command back of that stuff, I mean, that is going
• 55:44
  Speaker 1: to be a good thing for him. Mediocre numbers though
• 55:47
  Speaker 1: against Arizona. Again I said, they're a pretty decent line up,
• 55:50
  Speaker 1: even without the guys that they traded away. One hundred
• 55:53
  Speaker 1: and nineteen of bats against Arizona for Darvish forty to
• 55:57
  Speaker 1: seventeen strike a walk ratio that is too many walks.
• 56:00
  Speaker 1: Two's sixty one average not bad, but eight thirty two
• 56:02
  Speaker 1: oh ps is fairly h He's allowed six home runs
• 56:05
  Speaker 1: to a piece from Carol Marte and and McCann, so
• 56:11
  Speaker 1: three guys do hit him quite well there. As far
• 56:12
  Speaker 1: as the long ball, not sure if I'm ready to
• 56:15
  Speaker 1: totally trust Starvis here. It does look like he's rounding
• 56:18
  Speaker 1: it to form. Ryan Nelson will be pitching for the Diamondbacks,
• 56:21
  Speaker 1: a guy that I keep saying I don't think he's
• 56:23
  Speaker 1: that good, but I may have to eat my words
• 56:26
  Speaker 1: at some point, because he is pitching well this year
• 56:28
  Speaker 1: three point two ERA one point oh two whip really
• 56:31
  Speaker 1: good at home two point zero nine homy Ra pitching
• 56:35
  Speaker 1: well over the past month two point two two ERA
• 56:38
  Speaker 1: twenty two to seven strike a walk ratio. He's pitching well.
• 56:42
  Speaker 1: Man coming off a nice outing at Detroit where his
• 56:44
  Speaker 1: fielding laps behind him, but he still only allowed one
• 56:47
  Speaker 1: on run, eight strikeouts and no walks against a pretty
• 56:50
  Speaker 1: solid Detroit team. So Nelson is pitching fairly well right now.
• 56:54
  Speaker 1: Man up against the San Diego Padres, though they've seen
• 56:58
  Speaker 1: a lot of them one hundred and fifteen at bats,
• 57:00
  Speaker 1: he hasn't been that great against them. Five home runs
• 57:03
  Speaker 1: allowed to them, four different batters of homeward off him,
• 57:06
  Speaker 1: seventeen to seven strike a walk ratio. Bogarts has two
• 57:09
  Speaker 1: omers off him, by the way, two seventy batting averages
• 57:12
  Speaker 1: seven to sixty four ohps. So I don't know if
• 57:14
  Speaker 1: I'm ready to trust Nelson either. I mean, I'm kind
• 57:17
  Speaker 1: of leaning towards an under in this game, man, where
• 57:19
  Speaker 1: you don't really know what you're gonna get out of
• 57:20
  Speaker 1: either pitcher. It is possible the pitchers don't do that well. Yes,
• 57:24
  Speaker 1: San Diego's bullpen is good, but Arizona's isn't, So most
• 57:27
  Speaker 1: of the components are there to potentially look towards an
• 57:31
  Speaker 1: over I see fifty eight percent of ticket sixty two
• 57:33
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on Arizona as a home underdog here.
• 57:38
  Speaker 1: San Diego came out minus one thirty five and they're
• 57:40
  Speaker 1: already down into the minus one twenty five range here,
• 57:42
  Speaker 1: So the money seems to be backing Arizona here. If
• 57:46
  Speaker 1: you're gonna do Arizona, I would only go first five
• 57:48
  Speaker 1: innings and just go with Nelson to outpitch Darvish here
• 57:51
  Speaker 1: because I would not want Arizona's bullpen a factor into
• 57:54
  Speaker 1: the equation. But I can see the argument like, should
• 57:57
  Speaker 1: San Diego really be that heavy of a favorite with
• 58:00
  Speaker 1: Darvish on the mount who's kind of still an unknown
• 58:02
  Speaker 1: at this point in San Diego really has not been
• 58:05
  Speaker 1: a good road team this year, and they really have
• 58:07
  Speaker 1: not been that good since they're hot start to the season,
• 58:10
  Speaker 1: though they have been a little bit better recently too,
• 58:12
  Speaker 1: But still don't know if the price is justified on
• 58:16
  Speaker 1: San Diego, but I think the over might make more sense.
• 58:19
  Speaker 1: But the total has flipped from nine juice to the
• 58:21
  Speaker 1: over to nine juice to the under at most places,
• 58:23
  Speaker 1: So it looks like the money came in on the
• 58:25
  Speaker 1: under in this game, and I'm not quite sure that
• 58:27
  Speaker 1: I agree with that one. And to finish it off
• 58:29
  Speaker 1: before I go to best bets, it's gonna be a
• 58:31
  Speaker 1: little bit over an hour today. That's not too bad.
• 58:33
  Speaker 1: Not dealing with the chat today, though, which is unfortunate
• 58:36
  Speaker 1: because that means we don't have the interaction today. Saint
• 58:39
  Speaker 1: Louis at the Dodgers to finish this thing off here.
• 58:42
  Speaker 1: I believe Saint Louis actually won. Last night. Dodgers were
• 58:46
  Speaker 1: turning over from a road trip, so as I pointed out,
• 58:48
  Speaker 1: it wasn't a great spot for the Dodgers, but I
• 58:51
  Speaker 1: wasn't sure that I wanted to back Sonny Gray on
• 58:53
  Speaker 1: the road. But it turned out that the Dodgers did
• 58:57
  Speaker 1: indeed lose that game three to two. The Dodgers have
• 59:00
  Speaker 1: the worst of the two bullpens. Still, their bullpen is
• 59:03
  Speaker 1: not a great bullpen man. They used three relief pitches yesterday,
• 59:07
  Speaker 1: but they only use dryer for one pitch, so he
• 59:10
  Speaker 1: I imagine will be available again today if they want
• 59:12
  Speaker 1: to use him. Saint Louis used two relief pitches as well,
• 59:16
  Speaker 1: not heavy usage at all there from Saint Louis, so
• 59:19
  Speaker 1: Saint Louis will have the bullpen edge in this game.
• 59:22
  Speaker 1: Dodgers obviously have the hitting edge. They have a really
• 59:24
  Speaker 1: good offense, especially at home. I think they actually have
• 59:26
  Speaker 1: the most runs scored per game out of any team
• 59:30
  Speaker 1: at home this season. Miles Mikolas pitching for US Saint
• 59:33
  Speaker 1: Louis looks like the start. You gotta give the starting
• 59:36
  Speaker 1: pitching edge to LA in this game, and I mean
• 59:39
  Speaker 1: I don't trust Mikolas, though he's actually been a little
• 59:41
  Speaker 1: bit better recently. Four point eight three ERA, one point
• 59:44
  Speaker 1: two eight WHIP not great stats there. He's been really
• 59:48
  Speaker 1: bad on the road, a six ERA on the road,
• 59:50
  Speaker 1: allowing twelve of the eighteen runs he's allowed on the
• 59:53
  Speaker 1: road to Those six of them came in one game
• 59:55
  Speaker 1: against the Cubs, which was at the start of July.
• 59:59
  Speaker 1: Over July the span of July, he actually had a
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 1: pretty decent nineteen to three strike a walk ratio though
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 1: not bad, but he allowed nine home runs but granted
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 1: six of them were in one start, so beyond that,
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 1: he actually didn't pitch that badly after that, allowing more
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 1: than two hour runs only once in the remaining four starts,
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 1: so one of them was on the road against the Dodgers.
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 1: So again the common theme here is he pitches poorly
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 1: against good lineups on the road, and that is what
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 1: he's doing here. He's pitching against a good lineup on
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 1: the road, So might not be a good sign since
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 1: his last two bad outings were both that against the
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 1: Cubs in Arizona. Against La he doesn't have good numbers
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 1: and nine to nine at bats does have a good
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 1: twenty three to four strike a walk ratio, but seven
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 1: home runs from the Dodgers against them, although Bets has
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 1: two of them and Freeman has three of them, three
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 1: zero three batting average allowed in eight eighty six ops allowed.
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 1: So Miko Lass has not been very good against the Dodgers,
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 1: and he's going up against a guy who I continue
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 1: to to heap praise upon Emmett she And I mean,
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 1: he's a guy who's only twenty five, but I believe
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 1: he's already coming off with Tommy John surgery. But he's
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 1: a guy that throws at a high velocity. He's a
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 1: very talented young pitcher. His numbers around. He has a
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 1: form this year to three point six ERA at one
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 1: point two to four whip. That's not bad. He has
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 1: been worse at home though, a five point two to
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 1: five yarra at home. Although it's a small sample size,
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 1: it was basically one bat outing against a good Milwaukee
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 1: lineup that does hit really well on the road. That's
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 1: basically what did all the damage to his numbers this year.
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 1: Overall this year, he's pitching fairly well. Twenty six to
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 1: ten strike a walker as you on twenty five innings pitch,
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 1: twenty one hits allowed. The walk rate is too high,
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 1: though he's walked five guys over the last two starts,
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 1: going five or fewer innings in those two starts, so
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 1: not terrific. But again, he does have good strikeouts stuff
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 1: he's got. He's got to get a little bit less wild.
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 1: But Saint Louis has never seen him before, so I
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 1: think you got to give Shean the edge over on
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 1: Mikolas here Man and the starting pitching matchup, although bullpens
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 1: go to Saint Louis here so I think it makes
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 1: sense to go with the Dodger, but I would go
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 1: first five innings and just go with Sheian to outpitch
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 1: Mikolas here. Sixty six percent take is ninety four percent
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 1: of cash on the Dodgers. It's not that typical that
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 1: you see the money actually coming into the Dodgers, but
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 1: it is the case here, although they're down for minus
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 1: one ninety to into the minus one eighty range basically
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 1: at some places. But I think the way to go
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 1: would be the run line first five innings on the
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 1: Dodgers here and just go with the Dodgers to have
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 1: the lead at that point. I think that's a decent
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 1: way to look at that game. And let's go to
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 1: the best bets segment, man, right, have two totals, and
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 1: if you know me, you know what I'm doing in
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 1: these plays. The first one up is actually a repeat
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 1: of the same thing that I did with the same
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 1: pitching matchup in the other stadium, and that's gonna be
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 1: San Francisco and Pittsburgh under the seven and a half.
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 1: I saw it out there at minus one fourteen. You
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 1: might have to pay a little bit more for that,
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 1: but remember seven is a key number man in baseball,
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 1: because it breaks the three to three ties, So under
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 1: in this game, I would pay up to about minus
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 1: one twenty probably to get it under seven and a half,
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 1: just so if it lands seven, you're still gonna win
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 1: on that. And this is the same starting pitching matchup
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 1: where I gave out the same thing on the road,
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 1: and I believe it was an easy undercall in the
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 1: other game. I think it might wound up being a
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 1: two to one final or something like that. With the
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 1: same exact pitching matchup. Last time out, it was Logan
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 1: Web against Mike Burrows. Where are they on the board here?
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 1: Why don't I see them? Come on, man, there they are.
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 1: So we have eighty six percent tickets ninety one percent
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 1: of the cash coming in on the under, so the
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 1: under does look public. The total hasn't really moved much.
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 1: It's kind of just sitting at the seven and a half.
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 1: But I'm going with the under in this game, just
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 1: you know it worked before. I'm gonna do it again
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 1: here now with this matchup. Even though Sarrancisco is a
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 1: more pitcher friendly park than Pittsburgh is, but they're actually
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 1: kind of similar in a way, right because you have
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 1: the water kind of beyond right field. It's actually kind
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 1: of a similar set up here, and the wind is
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 1: blowing in, by the way in Pittsburgh tonight here, so
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 1: I think it's decent conditions for an under here, although
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 1: I'll look at the weather report actually because I don't
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 1: really know what the uh temperature is going to be there,
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 1: because of course, if it's cooler, it'll help the under
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 1: a little bit more. It's gonna be eighty two degrees,
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 1: but a seven mile an hour wind blowing in, I mean, still,
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 1: I think that's okay. It will be warm, but still
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 1: it's a night game anyway, so I think that can
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 1: help kind of knock the the offense down a little
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 1: bit too. But I like the starting pitching matchup man
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 1: and over in San Francisco. Borrows actually outpitched webs so
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 1: I kind of like that as well. Even though it
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 1: looks like the cash percentages on San Francisco here sixty
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 1: seven percent tickets ninety two percent of the cash on
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 1: San Francisco, but they've dropped from minus one sixty to
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 1: into the minus one thirties man, so it looks like
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 1: the actual money to me actually came in at least
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 1: initially hitting Pittsburgh as the home underdog there, which leads
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 1: me to believe that the professional betters actually do have
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 1: some faith in Mike Burrows here, and I would agree
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 1: with it, even though I do think the edge that
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 1: he had in is the last time out. I know
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 1: the major one of the major edges he had the
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 1: last time out was that he was facing a San
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 1: Francisco team that never seen him before. So that was
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 1: definitely a big edge for Borrows in that game. So
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 1: now that San Francisco has seen him before, they might
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 1: be able to hit a little bit better against him.
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 1: But Webb actually wasn't as good last time, so maybe
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 1: Webb will actually do better, though I know web is
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 1: not as good on the road. I will go to
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 1: that in a minute. The bullpens, I actually don't mind
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 1: either bullpend here man, even though they saw some usage.
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 1: San Francisco is near the top of the class and
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 1: bullpen Man, they have one of the best bullpen the
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 1: RRAs and one of the best bullpen whips. There's still
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 1: a top five bullpend Pittsburgh shockingly is fifth in bullpend whip,
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 1: although the ERA is a little bit higher than that.
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 1: So we're looking at decent bullpens and We're looking at
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 1: some bad offenses here, man. We're looking at bottom tier
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh at the very bottom ops wise, terrible offense. San
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 1: Francisco twenty fifth in offense. So some good indicators for
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 1: an under here, man. We have two pretty good bullpens
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 1: and too bad offenses. The starting pitching might help us
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 1: get deep en up into this game that we don't need,
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 1: you know, the bullpens for that much of this game.
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 1: San Francisco used three relief pitchers yesterday. Pittsburgh also used
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 1: three I believe, well they used four, excuse me, but
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 1: still some of the better relievers are still available, I
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 1: believe for both teams coming into this one. Well, actually
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh won five to four yesterday, so actually maybe that's
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 1: not the case on the Pirates side. Let me see, Yeah,
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 1: I mean, I guess a couple of the better relievers
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 1: did come in for the Pirates yesterday. But still some
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 1: decent relievers are available, and the bullpens are decent here,
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 1: and we got a decent starting pitching matchup. Man. Anyway
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 1: you look at it, Logan web pitching three point three
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 1: one ERA one point two to five whip decent numbers,
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 1: lowse whip is higher than I would like to see.
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 1: I know he's not as good on the road three
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 1: point nine era, but that's still pretty good. And he's
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 1: a guy that gets you deep into games, man, So
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 1: I like that about it. Last time out was against Pittsburgh,
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 1: so yeah, I know both lineups are recently familiar with
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 1: the opposing pitchers here, but that was a one to
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 1: one game at the end of nine innings, man, So
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 1: that was a very very under game, and I'm expecting
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 1: a similar game here. I'm not expecting to be that
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 1: low scoring, but still a web at a eleven strikeouts
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 1: in that game. But he did walk four guys, which
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 1: is a little bit concerning, but he held Pittsburgh to
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 1: one run. This is not a very threatening Pittsburgh lineup. Man.
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 1: Webb had pitched poorly the previous three starts, but it
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 1: was around the All Star Game. He pitched in the
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 1: All Star Games, so and it was against the Dodgers,
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 1: Toronto Mets, I mean teams that can hit. So he
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 1: to me, he seems to be a rounding back into
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 1: form here. Webb is used to grinding it out for
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 1: entire seasons, man, so I think Webb is returning to form. Here,
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 1: so I'm not that worried about that bump that he
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 1: had there in the road where he didn't pitch that well.
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 1: His numbers against Pittsburgh in sixty three career bats twenty
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 1: five strikeouts is quite a bit to six walks, two
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 1: six batting average will Loft five thirteen obs, So some
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 1: really weak offensive numbers from Pittsburgh against them. They only
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 1: have two extra base hits against them, both doubles from
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 1: Cruise and Horowitz. So definitely fine with Webb in this game,
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 1: and I'm fine with Borrows as well. Man he's started
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 1: to pitch pretty well as a young talented pitcher here
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 1: three point eight eight eer and one point two to
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 1: six whip, similar numbers to web Actually, on the season,
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 1: he's actually better at home for the most part, three
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 1: point three eighty R at home, although he's allowed more
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 1: home runs at home, but he has pitched more innings
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 1: at home as well. Borrow's coming off a couple of
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 1: really good starts in a role, only allow of one
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 1: run over the last twelve innings, including a start against Arizona,
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 1: a team that can hit, and he's had a twelve
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 1: to two strike aut walk ratio of that span. Allowed
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 1: one run that last time out, which was against San Francisco.
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 1: As I said, seven strikeouts and six innings, only three hits,
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 1: allowed one walk, so he did really well. Yes, again,
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 1: both lineups are recently familiar with these pitchers. They might
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 1: hit a little bit better, but I'm willing to lay
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 1: it on the line here with both pitchers actually being
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 1: good enough that they overcome that familiarity disadvantage that they
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 1: might have. Here, Borrows, I think is starting to pitch
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 1: really well. Man. He's allowed two or fewer runs in
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 1: the last three outings. The other one was against the
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 1: weak White Sox lineup. I get that, but as I
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 1: just showed you, San Francisco's lineup is also a very
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 1: weak lineup, Borrows. Against them, it's a very small nineteen
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 1: at bats amble size, but they have no extra base
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 1: hits off him. One eight average, three fifty eight ohps,
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 1: seven strikeouts in one walk. That was all that one start.
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 1: But he really held them in shack Man, so I
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 1: think he might be able to do fine again here.
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 1: So under is the play in San Francisco and Pittsburgh.
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 1: There again, what's up Andrew? Thanks for hanging out. And
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 1: then finally we'll go to my last play, which is
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 1: also an under, but it's a first five under in
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 1: Red's Cubs. I think public's gonna look at this game
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 1: Red's Cubs. They know these teams have some good hitters here,
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 1: especially the Cubs. We know the Cubs can hit. It's
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 1: at Wrigley Field, which can be a hitter friendly park.
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 1: But in this case, I don't think that's the case.
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 1: I'm going under here. I think it's misleading. You know,
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 1: the public is probably gonna look at this total. Oh,
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 1: it's seven and a half across the board, and actually
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 1: the money's coming in on the under. Book maker again
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 1: an indicator book for me there there the only book
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 1: out of all of these it's heavily juice to the unders.
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 1: That's a strong indicator for me as well, where all
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 1: the other books are seven and a half or seven
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 1: and a half juice to the over bookmakers saying, nah,
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 1: juice to the under man. And that's you know, again
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 1: a lot of sharp's bet a bookmakers. So I think
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 1: that's an indicator of money coming into the under. All
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 1: we see ninety percent of the tickets on the under
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 1: and ninety two percent of the cash on the under.
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 1: I think the money is indeed coming in on the
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 1: under here, so I'm gonna roll with that. Cubs are
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 1: a big favorite. Of course, the money is coming in
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 1: on Cincinnati. If you want to take from that what
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 1: you want to seventy one percent of tickets on Chicago.
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 1: Of course, the public is only gonna bet the Cubs here.
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 1: I mean they like that the Cubs are. I mean,
• 1:10:28
  Speaker 1: Cubs have a really good offense, and they have one
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 1: of their best pitchers on the mound, So that's what's
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 1: going on there. Eighty percent of the cash coming in
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 1: on Cincinnati, though, and the lines dropped for minus one
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 1: to eighty basically into the minus one seventies. I don't
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 1: think I would quite trust Cincinnati here though, man, And
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 1: the reason I'm excluding the bullpens. I don't like Cincinnati's
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 1: bullpen very much. They're a very middling bullpen. But they
• 1:10:48
  Speaker 1: also use five relief pitchers yesterday, so I'm not ready
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 1: to factor the bullpens into an under here. Man. Cubs
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 1: also a lot of bullpen use it year. Five relievers
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 1: pitched yesterday, so that's kind of a no go for me.
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 1: But I like to start a pitching matchup on the
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 1: money seems to be coming in the under full game,
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 1: but I'm willing to say that it's gonna be mostly
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 1: because of the starting pitchers. Again, I found a four
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 1: out there. If you can't find a four and you
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 1: have to go under three and a half in the
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 1: first five, that's a little bit less tempting to me.
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 1: So you maybe I would say you should still go
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 1: full game under the seven and a half here and
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 1: just risk it. I mean, of course, if it's under
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 1: seven and a half in Wrigley Field, you know that
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 1: means the wind is blowing in, so let me just
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 1: make sure of that. But I know it's Ema Naga
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 1: on the mound. But with the Cubs at Wrigley, I
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 1: mean you'll see win most likely blowing in. Yeah, it's
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 1: a nine mile an hour wind blowing in, and it's
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 1: not not gonna be very hot in Chicago seventy five
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 1: degrees and nice nice temperature there, man, nice night at
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 1: the White Sox there are though, when it's an under
• 1:11:47
  Speaker 1: I kind of prefer it to be a little bit
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 1: overcast and rainy, but looks like decent conditions for the
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 1: under there wind blowing in in both of these games.
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 1: Of course, that is factored into the number there though,
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 1: But we're looking at the starting pitching here Man, and
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 1: I like it for both sides. Zach Lttel is gonna
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 1: be making his first start with Cincinnati. Tampa actually traded him,
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 1: so again, first start with your new team, you might
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 1: step up and pitch well on that game, then for
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 1: your new team. Lattel has decent numbers on the season
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 1: three point five eighty R and one point one two whip.
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 1: I've never been totally sold on him though, even though
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 1: I will bet on some games bet him to do
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 1: well because his overall numbers, I mean, his whip is
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 1: definitely good. He doesn't put a lot of guys on base,
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 1: he doesn't walk a lot of guys, but he does
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 1: give up a lot of hard hits, so that's kind
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 1: of the problem. He's given up twenty six home runs
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 1: this year, and that's kind of the problem. Three point
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 1: seven to four R on the road. He's a bit
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 1: worse on the run. He's allowed eighteen home runs on
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 1: the road, so that is a concern. You have to
• 1:12:39
  Speaker 1: avoid the home run ball at Lattel here Man could
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 1: be an issue, but we do have the wind blowing
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 1: in here, so hopefully not that much of an issue.
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 1: He's coming off shutting out the Yankees for five innings,
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 1: though for once he actually walked too many guys and
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 1: that start he walked four guys. But over the last
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 1: month eighteen to eight strike a walker ratio three point
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 1: four to five ERA, he wasn't pitching too poorly. He
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 1: only allowed home and two of the five starts, so
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 1: that's not too bad his home run the rate of
• 1:13:04
  Speaker 1: home runs that he's allowed has actually gone down over
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 1: the last like month and a half basically, so he's
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 1: kind of getting that under control. And his numbers are
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 1: surprisingly good against the Cubs thirty eight at bats, nine
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 1: to five strangle walk race is not that good. Yeah,
• 1:13:16
  Speaker 1: he's a lot of couple of home runs. What else
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 1: is new from Castro and Swans and but two eleven
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 1: average overall six' ninety seven. Ops so he's held The
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 1: cubs lineup. Down SO i think we can Expect lettel
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 1: to at least do okay enough in this game to
• 1:13:31
  Speaker 1: get us. Through and then of course we're expecting the
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 1: better pitching to come from show To imnaga really good
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 1: pitcher for The cubs. Here. Man he does have games
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 1: where he just gets absolutely blown. Up and there's nothing
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 1: you can really do about. That if you're betting on
• 1:13:42
  Speaker 1: him to do well and he has one of those complete, Implosions,
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 1: YEAH i, mean nothing you could really do about. That
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 1: BUT i like him as far as like his mental
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 1: state and. Whatever you see how he reacts like he's
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 1: fairly new to the. MAJORS i think he, was uh
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 1: he made his major league debut last, YEAR i. Believe
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 1: but he's kind of like a guy that like laughs
• 1:13:59
  Speaker 1: at all off more, so he's kind of. Funny like
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 1: the fans like him for that. Reason SO i think
• 1:14:03
  Speaker 1: that's good because it keeps his mindset right and he
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 1: tends to bounce back when he has bad. Starts he
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 1: doesn't go into like a lull where he has like
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 1: a bunch of bad starts in a row or anything like.
• 1:14:12
  Speaker 1: That three point two FIVE era and one point zero
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 1: four whip on the, season good. Numbers he is slightly
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 1: worse at, home SO i know we're going up against
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 1: the home road splits. Here three point six to seventy
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 1: are right at. Home still good. Though over the last month,
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 1: AGAIN i, mean he's been pretty. Good The cubs have
• 1:14:28
  Speaker 1: won four of his six starts over the past. Month
• 1:14:31
  Speaker 1: they've won a bunch of his recent. Starts, actually they
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 1: won eight of his last eleven starts or whatever that.
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 1: Is that's pretty good as well over the past. Month
• 1:14:39
  Speaker 1: twenty six to two strike out walk right shows really,
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 1: good but the home run ball became an. Issue nine home.
• 1:14:44
  Speaker 1: Runs he'lled five over the last two. Starts one of
• 1:14:47
  Speaker 1: those was just that complete blow up against The White
• 1:14:49
  Speaker 1: sox that made no. Sense. Man he came back and
• 1:14:52
  Speaker 1: he had a pretty decent starting Against milwaukee and picked
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 1: up a, win only a longing three earned runs against
• 1:14:57
  Speaker 1: a Good milwaukee, team had eight, strikeouts no. WALKS i
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 1: think he's bouncing back just fine, here. Man that StrEG
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 1: a walk ratio over the entire month was really good
• 1:15:06
  Speaker 1: four point three to two e ray not very good
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 1: over the past, month but again that's all skewed by
• 1:15:10
  Speaker 1: that one really bad start against The White. Sox against The,
• 1:15:13
  Speaker 1: reds seventeen of. Bats they haven't seen a whole lot of,
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 1: him but he's been pretty good and held him to
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 1: a two thirty five average five to seventy two oh.
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 1: Ps they only have one extra base, hit a double
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 1: From hayes three to one streke a walk, ratio SO
• 1:15:25
  Speaker 1: i am ready to say we'll get some good pitching
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 1: in this, game so we'll go Under Red's cubs in
• 1:15:30
  Speaker 1: the first five. Innings THOUGH i found it under four
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 1: at plus, money which is a decent price. THERE i
• 1:15:36
  Speaker 1: saw some four and a half kind of hanging around,
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 1: too so it's a weird number there on this. Game but,
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 1: again if you want to go full game UNDER i
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 1: would not disagree, totally but you gotta worry about the
• 1:15:45
  Speaker 1: bullpends a little. Bit hope that you're starting pitching gets
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 1: you deep into the, game, Man BUT i think first
• 1:15:50
  Speaker 1: five is a safer way to do, it maybe even
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 1: going to three and a half on, that even THOUGH
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 1: i don't love to do, that but that's the Way i'm.
• 1:15:56
  Speaker 1: Going those are the two players once more under seven
• 1:15:58
  Speaker 1: and a half in the full game In Giants pirates
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 1: And Red's cubs first five inning under. Four that's gonna do.
• 1:16:05
  Speaker 1: It thanks for hanging out. People learned it tone On,
• 1:16:08
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• 1:16:11
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• 1:16:18
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• 1:16:22
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• 1:16:26
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• 1:16:30
  Speaker 1: yuke on, YouTube and you, KNOW i post my yuke
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 1: stuff there Which i'll get back into it. Eventually right,
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 1: Now i'm finishing writing that album That i've been talking,
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 1: about SO i haven't posted a lot of covers or
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 1: anything for a, bit BUT i will continue to crank
• 1:16:43
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• 1:16:45
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• 1:16:47
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• 1:16:51
  Speaker 1: gonna do. It have a good day, today everybody in.
• 1:16:54
  Speaker 1: Peace