Latest / The Scout and The Speculator / Let's Talk AFL Pitchers
Transcript
- Jaba: Hello everybody, welcome back to the Scout in the Speculator Podcast. This is Will Jarvis, also known as Jabba Cards. Joined as always by my co-host Jeremy Brown of Perfect Game Baseball, more importantly, known as JGB underscore cards underscore. Today we're bringing you guys a bit of an Arizona Fall League pitcher roundup. we were gonna do this yesterday, but we had Justin Lampkin, Jarl and Susana, and Tokoa Roby all pitching. So we said, okay, let's push this a day so that we can have their most up to date stats. glad we did. They all pitched very well. I think Lamkin in particular was con reassuring after he got hit around pretty good his last time out. Jeremy, looking at this note we have here, what what's standing out to you? Jheremy Brown: So we have the top fift sixteen arms, minimum five innings pitched. out of that, like half of them have Bowman autos. The one there there's a couple color only so I see Patrick Riley and Dominic Reed back to back. I think it's great that he's older, but what Tokoa Roby's doing proving he's healthy because I did like him so much in as a high schooler. And kind of cool to see him back. October third was his last sale, eleven forty-two for a base. no sale since October third, so that was we're closing in on a month. Now the lowest bin is twenty dollars. If we want to tweak tw treat the twenty as a proverbial floor, we can do that. So he is moving. not that long ago you could get his true colors really cheap, but that's kind of to be expected, right? I'm gonna jump all the way down. We'll touch on all of these guys too. to Briggs McKenzie, probably I mean he is a household name of all of these guys. He has jumped Jaba: Yeah, I think. Jheremy Brown: from twenty dollars thirty three cents to an average of twenty five ninety one, about a six dollar jump, which like his first outing was good. His second outing he got dismantled. His third outing was fantastic. Like this is a kid who didn't throw a ton this past year, was paid by the Braves like he was a first round pick, despite where he was drafted. Has a lot of p prospect pedigree, is in a good org whose fans buy the cards. Like he's got a lot going for him, plus he's really good. Like spin rates metrically, he's like he ch he tops out towards the top end of charts wherever whatever league he's playing in. So I think that Takoa Roby, just from seeing him, is kinda like a throwback. Cool name for me to see him kind of resurrecting a bit. And of course just I I love Briggs McKenzie, have a couple good ones of him. Those are two that stand out. of the eight we can kinda touch on all of them, but I'll start with the two and we'll go from there. Or I'll keep going if you're not gonna talk. Jaba: Yeah, no, keep keep cooking. Sorry, I was reading something. I was reading about Ryan Dombrowski. Jheremy Brown: Okay. Alright, let's go to the guy I just bought two true blues and an orange shimmer of for less than seventy five bucks of Miguel Mendez. Jaba: Your boy. Jheremy Brown: I mean that's just somebody like it's a low hanging fruit, but he could also just explode the next like three starts and like make you question yourselves about everything. The stuff's electric. Jaba: And what what did you pay for those? 'Cause you you've been cleaning up. Jheremy Brown: I bought two true blues for fifteen bucks each on best offer. And last time we talked about him, last time he threw in our AFL box score breakdown, I saw that there was a orange shimmer auto up for buy it now thirty four dollars and ninety nine cents. just I I don't imagine that to be that bad, so yeah. Jaba: Yeah. Yeah, I I saw an auction of his the other is an Arginus Kayama blu true blue at fifteen dollars good? 'Cause that just popped up on eBay. Jheremy Brown: Yeah. If you don't buy it, I will. Jaba: gone. I'm running. Now you guys can see Jheremy Brown: I'm trying to beat you through it. Jaba: inside the mind we just egg each other on. Jheremy Brown: Can I get it before you? I'm I'm trying to buy it before you. something happened. The item's gone. Jaba: What happened? I don't know if I got it. Yeah, I know, I I I got it. sorry, anyhow. We'll need Jheremy Brown: You wouldn't that's what happens. Jaba: a pal that. Jheremy Brown: Ooh, portfolio pal. I just wanted to play a game and see how if I could get it faster than you. Anywho, we're back. Jaba: Hey. Jheremy Brown: yeah, so Miguel Mendez, I got a bunch of just for thirty-five bucks of an orange shimmer, like I'll take that chance, you know? Like Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy Brown: I'll try out there. Like I don't think I can do Jaba: Doesn't take much. Jheremy Brown: don't think I can do terrible there. I got a couple true blues at fifteen bucks each. He's thrown well in the AFL, the VLO's up to ninety-nine, the sliders I got the wipeout potential. So there's a lot there to like. let me pull up. I lost my list trying to get over to eBay. Justin Lampkin, prices really haven't moved. I'm gonna say that also because the market hasn't had time to adjust to four and a third perfect innings. I bet you once it does, I wouldn't be surprised if that eleven dollar ninety cents, eleven Jaba: Fifty. Jheremy Brown: dollar forty hits that fifteen dollar mark. He was up north of twenty plus Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy Brown: for a while, got hurt, kinda missed some time. People probably had some prospect prospect amnesia no Bowman amnesia with him. Just like new names came out, you kind of forget about Lampkin, push him to the back. The talents Exactly. Jaba: And he didn't pitch late in the season. He was out for a while. Jheremy Brown: Exactly. So I guess that really only leaves Lou Coleman, Canon Kemp, Kenya Huggins, a handful of throwback names. We talked about Kenya having a true gold up there, buy it now, fifteen bucks, OBO. Canon Kemp, I don't think the results are there, but the stuff has been. And you know what? For ROI, if you're into him for the two dollars and twenty two cents that he was, he's Doubled your money, then some. One and a half times your money. So Jaba: And it's a good name. In the literal sense. Jheremy Brown: I I agree. I have a handful of him too. I think I saw like his true yellows I saw recently. We're doing like seventy-five bucks. Like he had some s Jaba: He well, he he's Padres, right? Jheremy Brown: he's Padres and he's color like auto only. So those are like his only Bowman cards. He doesn't have he's like Anthony Martinez. I I gotta look real quick 'cause I'm curious now. I think people like when we riffed off anyway. No a Jaba: Yeah, it's Jheremy Brown: gold shimmer did forty. o a green reptilian pair of did thirty-five. I could have sworn I saw a yellow for seventy-five, but that'd be egregious because a red did one eighty and a true orange did sixty-five. So you know what? It is what it is. Market's still down, but not not not horrendous. That's not terrible. that brings us to our last name. I believe it's Luke Holman. I don't have it in front of me, but I believe that's the one name we haven't talked about yet. twenty four draft. Came out of LSU, big kid, throwing well down there. His prices have doubled. And as we did the box score breakdown, he had some moments on the app. Kinda saw his stuff being asked for more and more at the beginning of the year. Don't know how his year as a whole was, but I do know he's throwing in the AFL and in a as we've said, there's not a lot of l like, you know, not a whole lot of Jaba: I think he's a card guy too. It's either him or Luke Sennard. One of them is c one of them Okay, so Jheremy Brown: Luke Sonard's a card guy for sure, so Jaba: I don't think Luke Holman is. So Jheremy Brown: but you know, people if you're if you're waiting on the potential for Holman, I could see it like he only threw in four games this year. He had a total of six and two thirds innings, struck out nine, one walk, Jaba: What rock? Jheremy Brown: two hundred average against. I like to always look at the batting average against with pitchers. Granted, he did it down in the complex. still Like, good to see him kind of get back out there. I'd be curious what the stuff is like. I'm sure our guy John will have something to tell me after he listens to it and let me know. He always seems to have the answers to everything I'm looking for. Jaba: Thank you, John. Jheremy Brown: Yeah, I don't I mean, those are the autos, and even looking at like the other guys, I don't know a whole lot about any of them. Joey Dixon, Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy Brown: I believe, was a Stanford commit or went to Stanford out of high school. I did like him in high school if it's the same kid. Other than that I mean Dominic Reed dominated recently, correct? I believe. Like through really well. Jaba: Yeah, there's some pitching well. Jheremy Brown: And you had him and you had Caleb Wing in twenty Jaba: It yeah. Jheremy Brown: in twenty six twenty five Bowman draft. Jaba: Yeah, 'cause I I remember in like June I saw Caleb Wing's numbers and I was like, Holy shit, I need to go buy some and Jheremy Brown: Yeah. Jaba: then I remembered he's color only. I mean, even the Jheremy Brown: Yep. Yep. Jaba: color only guys, I just find it tough to buy color. I don't know. I Jheremy Brown: Like a d a Dominic Reid black, like true black, so arguably one of his top ten, five, one and Jaba: Sixteen. Jheremy Brown: then double it. Thirty two cards went for a hundred and twenty five bucks. Figure out figure sapphire in there too, you know. Yeah, I mean his gold sapphires were right around twenty bucks. I'd be curious what his autos would do. How how the autos would translate off a color only. But definitely I think I'm done playing the color only game because I always seem to get burned on it. So Jaba: Yeah. Yeah, I'm with you. I I just I just don't think the juice is worth the squeeze. I don't I just don't think 'cause I I think guys really Jheremy Brown: I I Jaba: ha like you have to get in really cheap. Jheremy Brown: Like if Jack Weninger maintained what he was doing, I would have been fine there, but I'm more so like I put a lot of money I put a Jaba: Yeah. That's the game I was thinking about. Jheremy Brown: lot of money into Alejandro Rosario after twenty six or twenty five Bowman. Twenty five Bowman and then they put autos of him in twenty five Bowman chrome. Like not for me. Yeah. And it's not even not even him. Jaba: Yeah, yeah, like I I have a delise red in front of me and like the picture is given him. I I I Jheremy Brown: And then like you you would think, Jaba: don't know. Jheremy Brown: well, if it's colored draft, you're safe. Like, nope, because now Josh Noth has first autos where his chromes are non first of the same year, because he has first non-autos in 25 draft. Like, I just don't nothing's Jaba: Who knows? I Jheremy Brown: safe. So that's Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy Brown: kind of it. It's a shorter one. There's not a whole lot. you know who we didn't talk about is Jarlin Susana. His base autos are up 20 bucks. That's definitely your biggest gain right there. From 4539 to 6453. Redemption only, so that's o obviously gonna help. Less in circulation. We we almost missed old Jarlin in terms of just pricing. We just talked about him in the recap because he threw. if you could pick one of these guys to go buy right now at today's prices, who are you buying? Jaba: Lamkin, I think, gone to my head. you know, I think like like we said he's doing what, eleven forty. I think he'll probably be fifteen after the start. Again, Jheremy Brown: Mm-hmm. Jaba: he's definitely like the least sexy of these guys, right? 'Cause like Susanna's got the huge fastball, the strikeouts. Jheremy Brown: Yeah. Jaba: Cause you've said a few times now, like Lamkin's more like that high floor pitch to contact command type guy. And while that's not exciting or sexy, like that will move him through the miners quickly. He's obviously an SEC arm. Like Jheremy Brown: Yeah. Jaba: you said, he pitched against that block. That was unbelievable. Not only was it like Made and Pena, but that was when they still had Josiah Ragsdale, go Eagles. that was like the b and Andrew Fisher. I mean, that was like the best minor league lineup probably in a long time. And he carved them up like you said you had people at that game. Jheremy Brown: Yeah. Jaba: And they were all blown away. I I just think even if the ceiling's not there, I just think the path to him being like a thirty dollar auto is so, so so attainable. But like if if Dako Jheremy Brown: Mm-hmm. I would s I would say Jaba: Roby was like two years younger, I'd say him, but Jheremy Brown: Yeah. I I I mean, if I didn't just say how much I bought of Miguel Mendez, you can get his refractor autos for sub ten dollars shipped. Like I wouldn't not go buy a couple of those just to have That's not me Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy Brown: pumping him. Just like he's so cheap. Like, I got two blues at fifteen Jaba: I agree. Jheremy Brown: bucks each. Like it's those are the types where you can just have a piece for that cheap, like, why not, you know? like Jaba: Yeah, and you can you can get out of that so easily at full cost. I mean he would have to like blow his arm out or be like awful next year. Like I I Jheremy Brown: Look. Jaba: said to you, who who was the Padres guy who had the legal issues with? Jheremy Brown: Humberto Cruz. Jaba: like I I feel like it would literally have to be a situation like that where a Jheremy Brown: Yeah. Jaba: guy is no longer in the country to loop Jheremy Brown: Right. Jaba: on a fifteen dollar blue. I think as long as you're like alive and pitching okay. Jheremy Brown: Yep. Jaba: Much less having really good stuff. I just think like we've said before, like the floor on some of those, like you literally cannot lose. Jheremy Brown: Exactly. Jaba: even if it's not the sexiest. Like I I just do love having some of those picks where you're like, okay, like if everything goes wrong, like I will be fine and get out haul. Jheremy Brown: Yep. Jaba: and I think it's important to have that balance. What else, what else you got? You thinking about anything? Jheremy Brown: Well I wouldn't buy Jarl and Susana. I'd probably start s I I have some, I should probably start selling them. Feels like a sell. Jaba: I'd sell I I'd sell him. I don't know. It scares me. He's like not I mean, he's not old, but like Jheremy Brown: He's twenty two, he's huge, he didn't have the best of years, but it was a shorter sample size. It's just like he's had his moments now where like if you bought in at the beginning at forty five and you can get rid of it for seventy, like awesome. I think Briggs McKenzie could still go up a good bit. Jaba: Yeah, I was gonna say Brig Briggs was my second choice there. I think Lamkin, again, that's more just like a floor play. But I I think Jheremy Brown: Yeah. Jaba: Briggs even at twenty five now, with that Braves market like we've discussed, I mean he's young, he's got the talent. He had a lot of buzz this year 'cause they called him up to single A and after like one start they moved him to high A then I think he got hurt. Jheremy Brown: Yep. Jaba: but he was a guy I liked all year. I know you like him. I I I Jheremy Brown: Yeah. Jaba: think Briggs is definitely the explosion guy. If I had to pick Jheremy Brown: Yeah. Jaba: a guy on this list to blow up 'cause like you said, Jheremy Brown: Yeah. Jaba: Sana's already blown up. He's already what, seventy five bucks? Like he he's not gonna go over a hundred. Jheremy Brown: Right. Jaba: unless he literally becomes like Miz. Roby's too old, which's tough. He Jheremy Brown: Yeah. Jaba: he's been awesome. I'm not trying to discount what he's doing. and as far as like an L B career goes, like he's total like being what, twenty five doesn't really matter that much. Jheremy Brown: No, I mean look at River Ryan. Jaba: But for card for cards he's kinda dead. Jheremy Brown: Look at River Ryan, baby. But th like also the Cardinals fans Jaba: He doesn't. Jheremy Brown: do pay well for their their prospects. Like but you can go buy a true orange and a nine right Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy Brown: now for a buck fifty, like buy it now. True blue for fifty bucks. Even though it says purple refractor. Like if you believe in there's options out there. True gold for a hundred, true blue for fifty five. I don't know Jaba: Yeah. And i again, it's not like he's pitching well. He's pitching ridiculously. I mean nine Jheremy Brown: Right. Jaba: two thirds shutout, one walk, thirteen K's. Jheremy Brown: Yeah. Jaba: I'd have to check which line ups it was against, but none of these line ups are like bad. Like i i it's not like there's a single team where you look and you're like, Ugh. I mean, ever every team has someone Jheremy Brown: Curious what the stuff is. Jaba: to some extent. Jheremy Brown: Let's see if we can find a quick tweet about what his stuff is. So Forsemer averaged 97, topped out at 99. Field for Slider and Curveball have been there. 66% strikes last night. When did he throw October 17th? So his start prior, he was up to 99 six 99.3. This was from Aram, so it's like real info that I would trust. Averaging Jaba: Yeah, no, yeah. Jheremy Brown: ninety-seven across five and two thirds, we take that. here's one from another dude. four seamers sat ninety five ninety-six last night. Continues to dominate as he works his way back from TJ. Thirty-nine strikes on fifty-three pitches, four hits, four punches, four innings pitched. Like, again, if you can find them cheap, I wouldn't not buy them. Like, don't let the H scare you. He's just simply gotta come back. And Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy Brown: he's doing what he has to do. He had a twenty-five. Basically a twenty five point one K to walk ratio in twenty twenty five before he got hurt in double A, which is great. And Yeah, th the everything's there, so Jaba: We're probably only a month away from Bowman draft pre orders. Jheremy Brown: Probably. For us to all just get nothing. Jaba: Yeah, Dave and I wanna do a personal case again, so really hoping. Jheremy Brown: Love it. Jaba: But only if we can get it on release day because you have to go on eBay and sell everything. Jheremy Brown: Yeah. Jaba: even if it's like three days, so if anyone has been Jheremy Brown: Yeah, Jaba: at the factory or knows any FedEx drivers, hit me up. Jheremy Brown: Yeah. Too soon. Jaba: yeah. Alright, well Jheremy Brown: That works. Cool. Jaba: Thanks everyone for listening. We love ya. And we'll be back tomorrow with more. I'm not sure what we're doing tomorrow, but we'll figure out something good. I have a couple ideas for new series and Bowman Draft, Jheremy Brown: penguins. Jaba: not too far away. We'll probably start talking about that in a few weeks. Jheremy Brown: Looking forward to it. Jaba: Yeah. Alright. Well, thanks everyone for listening. Go max. See ya.