Latest / Best of Business / Sam Dickie: Fisher Funds expert on what investors can take away from Donald Trump's win one week on

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Sam Dickie: Fisher Funds expert on what investors can take away from Donald Trump's win one week on · Best of Business

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  Speaker 1: You're listening to a podcast from News Talks. There'd be
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  Speaker 1: Here the dupla c Ellen right.
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  Speaker 2: So to the Trump trading. Now, these things are still writing.
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  Speaker 2: The Trump trades are still riding high. A week on
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  Speaker 2: from the US election. Some of the initial euphoria show
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  Speaker 2: signs of wearing off. A question, of course, is now
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  Speaker 2: how sustainable all of the stuff is? And Sam Dickey
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  Speaker 2: from Fisher Funds is with us right now. Sam, hello
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  Speaker 2: to you. Hello, So Sam, run me through who the
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  Speaker 2: in your eyes, initially who the winners and losers of
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  Speaker 2: the Trump's trades were.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, we're not through Rinston Trump yet, I hope. But
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  Speaker 3: the winners initially work with the US in general. So
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  Speaker 3: it does feel like there's an enormous sucking sound on
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  Speaker 3: equity markets around the world, and all this money is
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  Speaker 3: flown out of global equity markets into the US equity
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  Speaker 3: So now U s equities is about five percent and
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  Speaker 3: Europe's down two. In China found five, so that's sort
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  Speaker 3: of seven to ten percut performance in a few days
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  Speaker 3: is pretty rare. And then the US dollar it's been
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  Speaker 3: a clear winner. Appreciating against all comers really, and then
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  Speaker 3: within the US it's kind of domestic facing make America great.
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  Speaker 3: US sectors were the initial winners. So steel companies are
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  Speaker 3: up thirteen percent, US trucking companies up ten. Of course,
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  Speaker 3: big banks up ten percent. But perceived losers still are
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  Speaker 3: bonds or a loser. People are selling bonds and sold
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  Speaker 3: the companies was at abound ten or fifteen percent.
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  Speaker 2: How sustainable do you think these moves are?
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  Speaker 3: Well? I mean if we sort of pick on say
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  Speaker 3: four of those asset classes, and we start with steel stocks,
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  Speaker 3: because they are super interesting. They did rip high initially,
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  Speaker 3: so everyone expected the first tariff he would throw on
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  Speaker 3: China will be steel like in twenty sixteen, twenty seventeen.
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  Speaker 3: But what's super interesting is the steel stocks are now
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  Speaker 3: back below where they were before Donald Trump was elected.
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  Speaker 3: And what's happening there is, of course, is there's unintended
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  Speaker 3: consequences of all of this. First and foremost by the way,
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  Speaker 3: he may not put these tariffs on. Secondly, if you
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  Speaker 3: put a tariff on Chinese steel steel exports, that ris
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  Speaker 3: up US steel prices, and I don't think anyone in
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  Speaker 3: the US is buying steel. Was suddenly say ten, fifteen,
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  Speaker 3: twenty percent wealthy youre and can afford there. And secondly,
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  Speaker 3: kind of what goes around comes around. In any anti
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  Speaker 3: China policy which impacts the Chinese economy, You've got to
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  Speaker 3: remember that the biggest buyer of steel globally is China.
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  Speaker 3: They have ten times the demand that the US have.
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  Speaker 3: So sort of these reflects of second round impacts. And
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  Speaker 3: I guess if y're going no, no, no, no, you are going
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  Speaker 3: to stay if you go to the I mean US
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  Speaker 3: banks for ex couple giant banks like JP Morgan up
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  Speaker 3: ten percent, talking less regulations, so for every one new regulation,
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  Speaker 3: you acts ten. But if you go to the sort
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  Speaker 3: of slightly less fundamental end of the spectrum, you know,
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  Speaker 3: Tesler baskets of unprofitable tech companies and bitcoin all up
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  Speaker 3: almost exactly the same amount, say twenty five to thirty percent,
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  Speaker 3: And that tells me there's a lot of retail animal
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  Speaker 3: spirits at play. So recall he was super pro bitcoin.
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  Speaker 3: But what I find most remarkable the test move. So
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  Speaker 3: trumps make the lelon But that's a very valuable friendship.
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  Speaker 3: It's worth quarter of a trillion dollars to Tesla's market cap.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, totally do you think the dusters. I mean, it's
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  Speaker 2: it's probably too early for the dust to completely have settled,
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  Speaker 2: right I think so.
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  Speaker 3: Yes, we'll see which tariffy roll rolls out in which order.
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  Speaker 3: But I would I wouldn't so much caution, but encourage
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  Speaker 3: investors to look at second and third round impacts. We
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  Speaker 3: think that steel stock example is a great example that
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  Speaker 3: these things don't just happen in a vacuum. There are
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  Speaker 3: unintended consequences. And the other thing to remember is interest
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  Speaker 3: rates moving higher and ant anticipation of a boost to
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  Speaker 3: you as economic growth. If that doesn't happen, I will
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  Speaker 3: shift there, whether it be interest rates falling or equities falling.
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  Speaker 2: Sam, I don't want to. I mean I want you
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  Speaker 2: to tell me, obviously, what investors should take away from this.
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  Speaker 2: But would one of the things that investors wouldn't one
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  Speaker 2: of the things be that you actually can't predict what
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  Speaker 2: Donald Trump is going to do, and you'd be a
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  Speaker 2: fool to try.
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  Speaker 3: Let's rite again, like we said last week. I mean,
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  Speaker 3: back in twenty sixteen, everyone was convinced he wouldn't get in,
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  Speaker 3: and then in the unlikely event he did stop, markets
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  Speaker 3: would fall very sharply. Well, they were wrong on both
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  Speaker 3: the cost last time, and here we go again. Stop
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  Speaker 3: markets are predicting what he's going to do, and he
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  Speaker 3: hadn't even really got a seat under the desk, so
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  Speaker 3: let's wait and see.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah too, right, Hey, Sam, thank you for being a
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  Speaker 2: cool head in all of this, Sam Dickey, and for
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  Speaker 2: your funds.
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