Latest / HPK Provident Advisors: The Weekly Bull / We Break Down Volatility And Turn It Into A Plan
Transcript
- 0:03SPEAKER_02: Welcome to Friday Live.
- 0:05SPEAKER_02: Every Friday, some of the partners of HBK Provident get together and discuss what we're seeing going on in the economy, the markets, and getting into some financial planning topics.
- 0:13SPEAKER_02: So with me today is Mr.
- 0:14SPEAKER_02: David Harper.
- 0:16SPEAKER_01: It is good to be with you all.
- 0:18SPEAKER_01: Thank you, Michael.
- 0:19SPEAKER_01: Uh uh, we were finally getting some rain down here in Sarasota.
- 0:25SPEAKER_01: Uh, and very happy.
- 0:27SPEAKER_01: Um, our our lakes are a little bit dry.
- 0:32SPEAKER_01: The the gators are crawling in the streets, crawling in the streets, crawling in the Lanai's, crawling, crawling on the front door says, please, please give me some water, give me some water.
- 0:44SPEAKER_01: I'm thirsty.
- 0:47SPEAKER_01: Okay.
- 0:48SPEAKER_01: Do not let your doggies outside.
- 0:50SPEAKER_02: So yeah, that's the one nice thing about being on near the west coast.
- 0:55SPEAKER_02: I don't have to worry about gators.
- 0:56SPEAKER_02: We can actually go in fresh water.
- 1:00SPEAKER_01: Uh yeah, be careful with that here.
- 1:05SPEAKER_01: Uh snakes too.
- 1:07SPEAKER_02: All right.
- 1:07SPEAKER_02: Well, so we're having a little bit of volatility today.
- 1:11SPEAKER_01: I after yesterday's call with the uh yesterday's um uh President Trump's address, uh, I I can imagine.
- 1:23SPEAKER_02: Did you listen to it?
- 1:25SPEAKER_02: I did.
- 1:26SPEAKER_02: I did actually tune in.
- 1:27SPEAKER_02: I I forgot about it, but it's been uh it's been kind of a momentum unwind this week um that's further exacerbated today.
- 1:36SPEAKER_02: We had kind of a kind of like a repeat of the deep seek moment we had last year where we got that big drawdown.
- 1:44SPEAKER_02: China is claiming to have a company that can compete with open AI and Anthropic.
- 1:50SPEAKER_02: So we'll see if that's, I mean, you always kind of have to take that kind of thing with a grain of salt, but regardless, it is causing some some market action.
- 1:58SPEAKER_02: Um, the SP 500, as you can see here, has dipped below the 50-day moving average.
- 2:04SPEAKER_02: Momentum is kind of on the verge of breaking down, um, but still technically in the area of a buy signal, but it's on the verge of breaking that.
- 2:14SPEAKER_02: The NASDAQ, though, has really felt the brunt of the decline.
- 2:17SPEAKER_02: As you can see, it's well below its 200-day.
- 2:20SPEAKER_02: Um, I think it's probably down about 7.5% from its recent highs.
- 2:25SPEAKER_02: Um the semi-trade has been really under pressure.
- 2:29SPEAKER_02: Um, in terms of yields, um, they've they've come down nicely.
- 2:33SPEAKER_02: So we're actually seeing a little bit of an offset in the fixed income space.
- 2:36SPEAKER_02: And that has a lot to do with the the inflation data we saw this week.
- 2:41SPEAKER_02: Um, although at this point, I think some of it's gonna be a little dated.
- 2:46SPEAKER_02: Um, a lot of that was fueled by the the lower energy costs, which now we're from 68 a barrel to I think we're at 80 today.
- 2:55SPEAKER_02: So we're probably gonna see some of that unwind.
- 2:58SPEAKER_02: I was getting a little more optimistic about not having rate cut or rate hikes this year, but um I don't know.
- 3:05SPEAKER_02: We'll have to we'll have to see if where energy goes from here.
- 3:09SPEAKER_02: Um, from the core reading, um essentially came in flat on the month.
- 3:13SPEAKER_02: So that's good news.
- 3:14SPEAKER_02: Um consensus was for about a quarter of a percent.
- 3:18SPEAKER_02: Um that brings us to 2.6% on a year-over-year basis, still too high, but below expectations in last month's 2.9% reading.
- 3:27SPEAKER_02: On the headline, we're sitting about 3.5% versus last month's 4.2 in a consensus of 3.9.
- 3:34SPEAKER_02: And we actually saw a decline of 0.4% on the month.
- 3:38SPEAKER_02: As I mentioned, I think a lot of that will unwind with the with the change in crude oil prices and hence gasoline prices.
- 3:46SPEAKER_02: Um, PPI came out Wednesday.
- 3:48SPEAKER_02: I thought it was a pretty good reading, too.
- 3:51SPEAKER_02: Um yeah, overall, we're seeing declines in prices, uh, but we'll we'll be keeping an eye on energy prices.
- 3:58SPEAKER_02: Retail sales uh a little weaker.
- 4:01SPEAKER_02: The headline number was about 0.2%.
- 4:03SPEAKER_02: Um we did see a strong performance out of used car parts and autos.
- 4:08SPEAKER_02: Um, so actually the control group was sitting at about a half a percent increase from the for the month.
- 4:14SPEAKER_02: Not a bad reading, a little deceleration from last month, but really the weakness is I mean, there is some weakness in different areas, but gasoline was a huge contributor to the downside on that one.
- 4:26SPEAKER_02: So overall, uh nothing too alarming.
- 4:29SPEAKER_02: Um in the inflation numbers are good, retail sales was okay.
- 4:34SPEAKER_02: Um, the employment situation remains pretty solid, a little deceleration um in the last reading, but overall it's it's still nice expansionary territory and um unemployment rate remains low.
- 4:47SPEAKER_02: So we did uh we did start to see a rollout of earnings this this week, especially with the big banks.
- 4:54SPEAKER_02: And uh, you know, the the the bar is pretty high.
- 4:59SPEAKER_02: We're expecting 20% earnings growth plus again, and those numbers have come up in recent weeks.
- 5:06SPEAKER_02: Uh so it is a high bar, and you've seen some of those companies getting severely punished if they miss or say something they don't like.
- 5:12SPEAKER_02: But overall, the banks I think give an overall sense that you know the economy and the consumer are doing okay.
- 5:18SPEAKER_02: Um delinquency rates came down a little bit.
- 5:21SPEAKER_02: Um so overall, they they had a pretty good performance, and a lot of the stocks are are benefiting from that.
- 5:29SPEAKER_02: So that's that's pretty much what's going on in the market.
- 5:32SPEAKER_02: Uh housing starts, I believe, uh were pretty decent too.
- 5:37SPEAKER_02: So that's a nice relief.
- 5:39SPEAKER_02: Um they would get more relief if the interest rates continue to come down.
- 5:44SPEAKER_02: If you look at the two-year, which is kind of the indicator of what the Fed's gonna do, um, so the Fed funds rate is at 375 at the high end.
- 5:53SPEAKER_02: This has come down from almost 430 to 414 in the past three trading days, um, still signifying there might be rate increases in the future.
- 6:06SPEAKER_02: Um Jeffrey Gunlock always says the Fed follows the two-year.
- 6:10SPEAKER_02: So we'll we'll be keeping an eye on that.
- 6:13SPEAKER_02: Um, but I don't know.
- 6:14SPEAKER_02: I I listened to quite a bit of uh the new Fed chair's testimony in front of Congress, and I think I missed Powell.
- 6:26SPEAKER_01: Well, well, Mike, to your point, um, it is a mixed bag.
- 6:32SPEAKER_01: Some good news, some not so good news, and a whole bunch of in-between.
- 6:38SPEAKER_01: And it's I don't know about you.
- 6:39SPEAKER_02: I he he continues to say over and over again inflation is a choice.
- 6:44SPEAKER_02: I guess technically, but at what cost?
- 6:47SPEAKER_02: Like if I'm Fed chair, I can go get inflation under control and kill the economy, but I don't think that's really worth it.
- 6:57SPEAKER_01: It's it's it's a trade-off that I'm glad I'm not the Fed chairman.
- 7:03SPEAKER_01: Uh that's something that but if they make the decision, they've got to live with it.
- 7:08SPEAKER_01: But so many times they they uh they try to shirk that uh accountability.
- 7:14SPEAKER_01: So and that's not too unlike most human beings, especially in government if you make a decision, uh stick to your convictions.
- 7:26SPEAKER_01: Um so uh the things that we that you use to gauge the market uh are time honored, and and it our world is a little bit weird right now, which goes to uh uh being actively managing uh our assets.
- 7:47SPEAKER_01: Okay, uh it is a mixed bag.
- 7:50SPEAKER_01: Um what could happen between now and at noon could be totally changed by and in four hours before the market closes.
- 7:59SPEAKER_01: That's just isn't that the truth?
- 8:00SPEAKER_02: Everything happens so fast these days, and I mean, especially with the war in Iran going on, it just constant escalation, potential de-escalation.
- 8:11SPEAKER_02: Right now we're in the escalation phase, which is why crude's back up to 80 a barrel.
- 8:15SPEAKER_02: Um, we were talking about hitting their infrastructure, so that would certainly escalate things.
- 8:21SPEAKER_02: But yeah, it's a volatile time.
- 8:23SPEAKER_02: Um I don't know.
- 8:24SPEAKER_02: I I don't think I really don't see this current drawdown having too much more legs to the downside, but like you said, that's subject to change.
- 8:33SPEAKER_02: I actually um in our retirement accounts did some tactical buying this morning.
- 8:38SPEAKER_02: Um, I think the risk rewards there.
- 8:42SPEAKER_02: Yes.
- 8:42SPEAKER_01: So well, the thing the thing about it that we should continue to impress upon our clients, okay.
- 8:49SPEAKER_01: We are not traders, we are investors.
- 8:53SPEAKER_01: Look at the long term.
- 8:56SPEAKER_01: Um, and yes, uh, if you feel like you're riding a yo-yo, well, understand that you're walking up a flight of stairs.
- 9:04SPEAKER_01: You know, if you look at the day-to-day action of the market and its volatility, or even now the intraday of the market, yeah, the market goes up and down, up and down.
- 9:15SPEAKER_01: Uh, but for a long-term average, it usually has gone up.
- 9:19SPEAKER_01: Now, we're supposed to say uh past results are not indicative of future uh pieces.
- 9:27SPEAKER_01: But I I'm okay with reading the tea leaves, Mike.
- 9:32SPEAKER_01: I'm okay with me too.
- 9:35SPEAKER_02: So we'll continue to keep an eye on things and make changes as needed.
- 9:38SPEAKER_02: It's one of the benefits that we have on our platform that training fees are included so we can be very tactical and move around where we see fit, taking advantage of pullbacks.
- 9:47SPEAKER_02: When things get too heated, we take some risk off the table.
- 9:50SPEAKER_02: When economic uncertainties rise, we do the same.
- 9:53SPEAKER_02: So we'll continue to monitor it and I'll let David and Brian handle your your long-term projections, and I'll worry about the short term.
- 10:02SPEAKER_01: Thank you for taking that uh taking that role, my friend.
- 10:06SPEAKER_02: We are happy with that.
- 10:08SPEAKER_02: Um, with our typical format after we cover the economic data and the stock market, we go into some of our blog posts for the week um that tend to talk about different financial planning topics.
- 10:19SPEAKER_02: We have Market Monday, Tax Tuesday, wealth building Wednesday, think ahead Thursday, and then Friday live.
- 10:25SPEAKER_02: So this week we had kind of a repeat or expansion of the small business um article that we we talked about last week.
- 10:34SPEAKER_02: Bremen and I kind of went into the different kind of what they're explaining here.
- 10:38SPEAKER_02: As a as a small business owner, you have many options um in terms of retirement plans.
- 10:43SPEAKER_02: And it they're great vehicles to reduce your overall tax the tax.
- 10:47SPEAKER_02: There's um if you're a smaller business, the more popular ones are the SEP and Simples.
- 10:52SPEAKER_02: They both have their their own benefits and detriments.
- 10:56SPEAKER_02: And then you have the the 401k if you're a bigger company, or solo 401k if you're the sole owner of the company.
- 11:04SPEAKER_02: Um, the solo has higher, potentially higher um income contribution limits than the SEP and especially the simple plan.
- 11:14SPEAKER_02: Um, David, you've you've worked with a bunch of small businesses in the past.
- 11:18SPEAKER_02: Um, I know you you're a big fan of the SEP and simple.
- 11:22SPEAKER_02: You want to elaborate on that at all?
- 11:24SPEAKER_01: Um there's two main general pieces that over that um can go over all of those small business plans.
- 11:32SPEAKER_01: The first one being don't plan on building up your company and then when you retire selling it for your retirement plan.
- 11:43SPEAKER_01: Raw choice.
- 11:45SPEAKER_01: Yes, your company may take off, but more times than not, you're gonna have a hard time finding a buyer.
- 11:52SPEAKER_01: And so if you wrap up your retirement plan and say, Oh, I'll just sell my business when I'm ready to retire.
- 11:58SPEAKER_01: No, no, get a retirement plan in place.
- 12:02SPEAKER_01: I don't care whether it's a SEP, a simple, a solo 401k.
- 12:06SPEAKER_01: A lot of times you get those uh uh payroll services companies and they have a 401k that you can plug into, okay, but set aside money for your retirement plan that's not uh contingent on selling your practice.
- 12:23SPEAKER_01: That's very important.
- 12:24SPEAKER_01: The second rule I had in mind, okay, that overarch all these all these retirement plans is uh you your business has to pay taxes.
- 12:36SPEAKER_01: What better way to fund your retirement, your retirement, than to take some of the money that you're sending to the IRS for taxes and divert it into your retirement plan?
- 12:48SPEAKER_02: And if you do have employees, it's a good way to incentivize them and and give them some extra compensation while you're still getting the tax benefit yourself.
- 12:59SPEAKER_01: Absolutely.
- 13:01SPEAKER_02: And I believe both simple and SEPs now have the ability to be either pre-tax or post-tax.
- 13:07SPEAKER_02: Um excellent.
- 13:08SPEAKER_02: I haven't really seen the SEP in practice with that.
- 13:11SPEAKER_02: I know our provider that we use for our personal SEP doesn't have those capabilities yet, and I don't really know how that would work from a taxation standpoint, whether it just gets added to normal income for the employee and not I don't I don't still get the deduction as a business.
- 13:29SPEAKER_02: I I don't really know.
- 13:30SPEAKER_02: It's kind of that that was a regulation that was passed a couple years ago, and I don't know if it was really thought out completely.
- 13:37SPEAKER_01: Um well the the Roth simple is in play.
- 13:40SPEAKER_01: Uh the the Roth sap I I'm I'm not I'm unclear of.
- 13:45SPEAKER_01: Okay.
- 13:46SPEAKER_02: But the I know it was part of the legislation, I just haven't seen it actually in practice yet.
- 13:53SPEAKER_01: Okay.
- 13:54SPEAKER_01: Well, um that'll be something that we would have to investigate and get back to you, uh, folks.
- 14:00SPEAKER_01: Okay.
- 14:01SPEAKER_01: Uh but moving on to something that's somewhat related to this, Mike, is beneficiaries.
- 14:09SPEAKER_01: It is always good for you to double check on your beneficiaries probably at least once a year.
- 14:17SPEAKER_01: Um now the blog post uh here this week was how to avoid beneficiary mistakes in life insurance.
- 14:24SPEAKER_01: Well, uh understand that when you assign a beneficiary to a retirement plan uh through a transfer on death uh addition to your uh individual account or joint tenant account, uh or whether it's in an annuity or whether it's with a 400k or with uh life insurance, okay, uh it bypasses uh the will.
- 14:49SPEAKER_01: It doesn't go through the will, it does not go through probate.
- 14:52SPEAKER_01: Probate, and again, we're not attorneys, so we we um we we know enough to make ourselves dangerous, but we are not permitted to give legal or tax advice, okay?
- 15:02SPEAKER_01: But you should be aware that uh probate probate is the process by which taking the ass, finding out how to move the assets of the person who passed away, the deceited, to the beneficiary.
- 15:16SPEAKER_01: If you've already named those beneficiaries, uh you don't have to go through probate on those assets because you've already named the beneficiary, okay, and then it goes to the will.
- 15:28SPEAKER_01: Well, your uh every every retirement plan asks for a beneficiary.
- 15:33SPEAKER_01: Uh uh the default is that it would go to your estate.
- 15:36SPEAKER_01: Uh if it goes to your estate, then it would go through then it would go through probate uh and will.
- 15:43SPEAKER_01: Okay.
- 15:43SPEAKER_01: But if you named a beneficiary, and hopefully, and this is why we tell you to look at your beneficiaries, probably at least annually, because things change, life happens.
- 15:54SPEAKER_01: What happens if um God forbid um God forbid uh one of your one of your children pass before you?
- 16:01SPEAKER_01: Um not only is that a sin against nature, uh, for a parent to bury their own child, okay, but don't compound it by by not updating the beneficiaries on your accounts, especially the life insurance.
- 16:18SPEAKER_02: And and that's a good segue to um you want to talk a little bit about pro rata versus pro capita in terms of your beneficiaries in the event that maybe one of your beneficiaries dies, and in the meantime you don't update it, and then you end up passing.
- 16:35SPEAKER_02: So those distinctions make a big difference of where that money goes at that point.
- 16:40SPEAKER_01: Sure does.
- 16:41SPEAKER_01: Oh, thank you, Micah.
- 16:42SPEAKER_01: Uh per capita means like per head.
- 16:46SPEAKER_01: So if you name four beneficiaries, there's four heads that uh you can designate what the amount percent, whether it's 25% or 2020, 2030, you know, however, it needs to add up to a hundred percent.
- 17:04SPEAKER_01: Okay, so if you end up uh with with the per capita, if one of them passed, now you only have three heads.
- 17:13SPEAKER_01: So the assets uh are now divided between the three, not four.
- 17:19SPEAKER_01: That's per capita.
- 17:20SPEAKER_01: All right.
- 17:21SPEAKER_01: Now, per sturpes uh is uh again, these are legal matters that you should talk over with your attorney, okay?
- 17:28SPEAKER_01: Uh, but perstirpes uh has to deal with uh you, um, your beneficiary and uh their direct uh lineage.
- 17:38SPEAKER_01: So instead of per capita, you could put perstirpase S T I R P E S, and then it goes to either uh your child or their issue.
- 17:51SPEAKER_01: Um not it bypasses uh the spouse, your your son-in-law, your daughter-in-law, and it goes directly to your grandchildren if your child uh passes away.
- 18:03SPEAKER_01: Uh sometimes um with you know, I what is it?
- 18:06SPEAKER_01: One in three uh one in three marriages ended end in divorce, uh, or things change, that happens, um protect your assets for who you want it to go to.
- 18:19SPEAKER_01: Okay, and again, that's where it's important to double check your beneficiaries on a regular basis.
- 18:26SPEAKER_01: I would say no no less than at least uh on a on a yearly basis.
- 18:32SPEAKER_02: Okay, yeah, and another option is um you you set your primary beneficiaries, but you can also set contingent beneficiaries.
- 18:41SPEAKER_02: So in the event of that primary dying, you can designate where you want that money to go.
- 18:47SPEAKER_02: Like normally these things don't apply because it's usually not this person dies and then the owner dies, and you have time to update it and all that, but it's just another planning tool that you can utilize.
- 19:02SPEAKER_01: Pay attention to it, is our point.
- 19:05SPEAKER_01: You know, uh we've we've encountered a number of times where the the the um the beneficiaries were not changed, and when the person died, the the uh some of the other beneficiaries are wondering what what happened or why did that case and the case is sometimes you don't want to have to reopen up an estate um on someone who passed away five years before.
- 19:30SPEAKER_01: Um that gets really complicated, which would could which could be avoided uh by keeping your uh beneficiaries up to date.
- 19:42SPEAKER_02: So well, next week uh it's a little light on the economic data.
- 19:45SPEAKER_02: Um, it'll just be more of a rollout of earnings will get underway.
- 19:50SPEAKER_02: Um the the big week will be the following week when those mag seven, a lot of those mag seven names report.
- 19:56SPEAKER_02: So we'll be keeping an eye on that and we'll update you next week.
- 20:00SPEAKER_02: And uh we'll be keeping an eye on this market sell-off and see if we find some some support levels and start to see some more AI enthusiasm.
- 20:09SPEAKER_02: Um, but in the meantime, do you have anything to add, David?
- 20:12SPEAKER_02: Any big plans this weekend?
- 20:14SPEAKER_01: Yep.
- 20:14SPEAKER_01: Uh no, but we have some relatives coming uh from Italy.
- 20:19SPEAKER_01: Uh they'll be at our house from Monday through uh Wednesday.
- 20:23SPEAKER_01: Looking forward to uh sharing some time with them.
- 20:27SPEAKER_01: Um I had I you can sometimes see a little bit on my wall, uh the brick wall.
- 20:34SPEAKER_01: You can see the outline of a cuckoo clock I just acquired.
- 20:38SPEAKER_01: I love it.
- 20:39SPEAKER_02: Yeah, it's very helpful.
- 20:40SPEAKER_02: I I get to keep an eye on the time, make sure we don't go too long.
- 20:47SPEAKER_02: I'm still waiting for the bird to come out and and yell the change of an hour.
- 20:51SPEAKER_02: Next time we'll have to do it around uh, you know, like the change of an hour, do it at 12 o'clock.
- 20:58SPEAKER_01: Well, I I went to a uh an estate sale, and the lady had a room full of cuckoo clocks.
- 21:07SPEAKER_01: I got this one at a very good price.
- 21:10SPEAKER_01: I was happy.
- 21:11SPEAKER_01: I've always wanted one.
- 21:12SPEAKER_01: Um and truth be told, uh she had uh big big Ben time clocks, or you know, time things.
- 21:22SPEAKER_01: Uh some rooms had two.
- 21:26SPEAKER_01: She had one in at least every room.
- 21:29SPEAKER_01: Uh a big Florida, big time clock.
- 21:34SPEAKER_01: I did not pick up one of those, Mike.
- 21:36SPEAKER_02: You'll be well, I'm very thrilled for your new acquisition there.
- 21:42SPEAKER_02: I hope you enjoy it.
- 21:44SPEAKER_01: All right, I I will.
- 21:46SPEAKER_01: I will thank you, Mike.
- 21:48SPEAKER_01: Uh uh, enjoy your eases.
- 21:50SPEAKER_01: Uh I'm gonna be seeing you soon.
- 21:52SPEAKER_01: Um possibly, yes.
- 21:54SPEAKER_01: A couple of weeks.
- 21:55SPEAKER_02: All right.
- 21:56SPEAKER_02: All right, before we go, we will flip on the disclosures.
- 21:58SPEAKER_02: I hope everyone has a good weekend, and we will see you next Friday by 1230 Eastern Time.
- 22:03SPEAKER_00: Security's offered through LPL Financial LLC, member FINRA, and SIPC.org.
- 22:09SPEAKER_00: Advisory services offered through LPL Financial LLC, a registered investment advisor.
- 22:14SPEAKER_00: Brian Peluso, Michael Kutch, and David Harper are registered representatives of LPL Financial LLC.
- 22:21SPEAKER_00: Content discussed is for informational purposes only and not intended as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security or investment strategy.
- 22:29SPEAKER_00: Any opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of LPL Financial or its affiliates.
- 22:36SPEAKER_00: All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal.
- 22:40SPEAKER_00: This communication may include links or references to third-party websites.
- 22:44SPEAKER_00: These links are provided as a convenience only.
- 22:46SPEAKER_00: LPL Financial and its representatives are not responsible for the accuracy or content of such sites.
- 22:52SPEAKER_00: Brian, Mike, and David and HBK Provident Advisors may only transact business in states where they are properly registered or exempt from registration.
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- 23:07SPEAKER_00: Past performance is not indicative of future results.
- 23:10SPEAKER_00: You should consult with your financial advisor, tax professional, and or attorney regarding your specific situation before making any investment decisions.