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The Favorites - NFL Draft Betting with Thor Nystrom · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
0:12
Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Volume podcast Network.
0:15
Speaker 1: I am Chad Moman of the Action Network. Today I'm
0:17
Speaker 1: joined as always by my co host, my companion, my
0:20
Speaker 1: compadre might be ff professional better, Simon Hunter.
0:24
Speaker 2: Hello, Simon, Chad Draft Week. Brother, this is this is
0:30
Speaker 2: this is the best.
0:31
Speaker 1: We've made it. I'm actually in New York this week.
0:35
Speaker 1: The weather is turned. It is freaking gorgeous outside. I've
0:41
Speaker 1: been here for the last couple of days and the
0:46
Speaker 1: streets are alive. Who questions about what are the freaking
0:51
Speaker 1: giants gonna do in the draft? The good news the
0:57
Speaker 1: first round of the NFL Draft is hours hours away,
1:02
Speaker 1: forty eight hours. Updated draft props springing up across every
1:06
Speaker 1: major sports book. It's coming a little bit late, but
1:09
Speaker 1: like spring, it's finally here. Joining us to talk all
1:13
Speaker 1: things NFL Draft. Is a man so obsessed with it
1:18
Speaker 1: he ranks five hundred prospects. He is a man who
1:25
Speaker 1: loves college football so much you'd have to call him.
1:28
Speaker 1: One of the original listeners of BBOC with Stuckey and
1:34
Speaker 1: Colin Wilson. You can find his draft big board and
1:39
Speaker 1: rankings across every position at our friends at Fantasy Life,
1:44
Speaker 1: Matthew Berry's Fantasy Life A man highly recommended by Matthew Friedman,
1:50
Speaker 1: who was on the show last week, and he said,
1:52
Speaker 1: if you're going to get anybody, get this guy. And
1:55
Speaker 1: that's saying a lot because Matthew he doesn't like to
1:57
Speaker 1: send out flowers for anybody. We're not going to hold
2:00
Speaker 1: it against them that Matthew gave them the highest recommendation.
2:06
Speaker 1: Welcome to the show, thor Aneistrom.
2:10
Speaker 3: Thank you so much, Chad. It's good to talk to you.
2:13
Speaker 3: Good to meet you.
2:14
Speaker 4: I been a fan of years for a long time
2:15
Speaker 4: and excited to talk about the draft today.
2:18
Speaker 1: Thanks for coming on, buddy. I love I love your backdrop.
2:22
Speaker 1: I love that you have, you know, as many helmets
2:26
Speaker 1: as there are lakes in Minnesota, so that is fantastic.
2:30
Speaker 1: Before we get to it, like, can you explain how
2:33
Speaker 1: you collected all these FBS helmets?
2:36
Speaker 4: Yeah, I started I started just picking them off on Amazon.
2:39
Speaker 4: You know, like because when you start and you have
2:41
Speaker 4: one hundred and thirty four to go, you're just looking
2:43
Speaker 4: for the cheapest price points, and then at a certain
2:45
Speaker 4: point you get enough where then you have to have
2:47
Speaker 4: a spreadsheet of the ones to go, and then at
2:50
Speaker 4: a certain point from there you're going to have to
2:52
Speaker 4: start getting individual and then searching them out on the way.
2:55
Speaker 4: But a couple of them, I had to go to
2:57
Speaker 4: the university bookstores to get a couple of those up
3:00
Speaker 4: there right like when we Some of them are pretty rare,
3:04
Speaker 4: right like at the very bottom of the FBS. But
3:06
Speaker 4: we completed. We completed our collection about a year ago.
3:10
Speaker 4: We have now moved down to the FCS. I completed
3:12
Speaker 4: the NFL one in one fel swoop. I just bought
3:14
Speaker 4: all thirty two at one time. But now we're back
3:16
Speaker 4: on the grind with the FCS helmets.
3:18
Speaker 1: By the way, who's weed You have a partner in
3:20
Speaker 1: your collection collection?
3:23
Speaker 4: No, it's it's Thor incorporated with the helmet collection.
3:27
Speaker 1: How much have you spent on those?
3:29
Speaker 4: Oh gosh, yeah, a decent amount. But I will say
3:35
Speaker 4: I got pretty good price points on most of the
3:36
Speaker 4: ones behind me that was back at Amazon. When you
3:39
Speaker 4: get those for twenty twenty two bucks, some of them
3:41
Speaker 4: even like eighteen with the shipping. So every time I
3:44
Speaker 4: could do that, you know, and I probably knocked out
3:46
Speaker 4: half for a little bit more.
3:47
Speaker 3: Of that FBS collection doing that, so some of it may.
3:50
Speaker 4: Be a little bit cheaper, but of course there were
3:53
Speaker 4: some in there where you had to get more expensive
3:56
Speaker 4: because of how rare they are.
3:57
Speaker 3: They are so a decent amount, So.
4:00
Speaker 1: It's fair to say you've spent at least twenty five
4:03
Speaker 1: hundred dollars on your helmet collection. Admirable. I hope you
4:06
Speaker 1: make at least that much betting on the Draft this week.
4:10
Speaker 1: As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet
4:13
Speaker 1: three six five. New Bet three sixty five customers get
4:15
Speaker 1: one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets when you
4:17
Speaker 1: bet five dollars, sign up using promo code Favorites, deposit
4:21
Speaker 1: ten dollars place to bet for five dollars to get
4:23
Speaker 1: one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets. Those bonus
4:27
Speaker 1: bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures,
4:30
Speaker 1: and more. Whatever the moment, It's never ordinary at Bet
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Speaker 1: present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Illinois, Louisiana, North Carolina,
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Speaker 1: Kentucky gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler or one
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Speaker 1: eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditions restrictions apply,
4:55
Speaker 1: all right, I mentioned it off the top. You do
5:01
Speaker 1: the four five hundred, you're ranking five hundred prospects with
5:07
Speaker 1: five hundred player comparisons. There are only two hundred and
5:12
Speaker 1: fifty seven total draft spots, so you're basically doing twice
5:16
Speaker 1: the work. Why are you doing this?
5:22
Speaker 4: Because I love it. I guess it would be number
5:25
Speaker 4: one and then number two. I mean, like the reason
5:27
Speaker 4: that I constructed the board that big is because when
5:29
Speaker 4: I was a kid, I'm gonna date myself, but like,
5:31
Speaker 4: we didn't have big boards on the internet, you know
5:33
Speaker 4: any I mean when I was in elementary schools, like
5:36
Speaker 4: when the internet was like invented, right, Like, but I
5:38
Speaker 4: was obsessed with the NFL Draft from the jump, and
5:41
Speaker 4: so the way I could get big boards would be
5:43
Speaker 4: on spring break when we were at the airport.
5:45
Speaker 3: You go to the Hudson bookstore.
5:46
Speaker 4: You know, and then you're there, You're like looking for
5:48
Speaker 4: the biggest big board in the back because I want
5:49
Speaker 4: to follow along when the draft was going cross off
5:51
Speaker 4: names but you'd only get like fifty player big board
5:54
Speaker 4: in the back one hundred player big board like never
5:57
Speaker 4: never longer than that, And so it always frustrated me
5:59
Speaker 4: because by its time we get to the fourth rounder,
6:01
Speaker 4: so certainly fit th round, all the names are crossed off,
6:04
Speaker 4: and then the ticker at the bottom with the best available.
6:06
Speaker 4: It wasn't going fast enough for me, So I was like,
6:07
Speaker 4: why doesn't someone have a bigger big board than this
6:10
Speaker 4: get you through the draft, but also gets you into
6:12
Speaker 4: the udfaith process. So that's why I went to five hundred.
6:15
Speaker 4: And then I love player comps and I always wonder
6:18
Speaker 4: why there, you know, there wasn't more player comps out there.
6:21
Speaker 4: Everyone comps the top guys, what about the other guys?
6:24
Speaker 4: So anyway, that's I'm kind of a sickle with it,
6:27
Speaker 4: as you can see, take a lot of pride in
6:29
Speaker 4: my player comps, especially the ones way way down the board.
6:31
Speaker 3: So I hope people like.
6:33
Speaker 1: Him, Simon, I don't know about you. Every year at
6:39
Speaker 1: the draft, not so much for the NFL, but definitely
6:41
Speaker 1: for the NBA Draft. My son and I will watch
6:44
Speaker 1: the NBA Draft. We love it, absolutely love it, and
6:47
Speaker 1: I always make him pretend to give the speech where
6:52
Speaker 1: he's crying and thanking me when he's the first round pick,
6:57
Speaker 1: the way every other first round pick gets up there
6:58
Speaker 1: and like answers the same question, and they want to
7:00
Speaker 1: think like I might, I might make him act at
7:04
Speaker 1: least one of them out during the draft when we're
7:07
Speaker 1: watching it. The one thing I hate. So I'm going
7:10
Speaker 1: to pick a bone with Thor right off the bat. Yeah,
7:13
Speaker 1: I love him already, but I'm going to pick a bone.
7:17
Speaker 1: I hate the player of comparisons, Simon. I don't know
7:20
Speaker 1: about you, but like because too often the player comparisons,
7:23
Speaker 1: they try to take players who are, in the case
7:27
Speaker 1: of the NBA but also the NFL, relatively young, relatively undeveloped,
7:32
Speaker 1: and they immediately go to player X who just won
7:36
Speaker 1: the MVP, or player ACX, who like was a Triple
7:40
Speaker 1: Crown winner as a receiver, or this guy is going
7:44
Speaker 1: to Hall of Fame. It's so unrealistic. It makes absolutely
7:48
Speaker 1: no sense. Simon, I don't know if you have a
7:50
Speaker 1: thought just as a as content, do you find value
7:54
Speaker 1: in the player comparisons or are you on my side?
7:57
Speaker 1: And should we just tell Thor to get the fuck
7:58
Speaker 1: out of your way?
8:00
Speaker 3: No?
8:00
Speaker 2: I love player comps. It's it's it's why football is
8:03
Speaker 2: so stupid.
8:04
Speaker 1: Chat.
8:04
Speaker 2: These people need to fill airtime and to compare a
8:07
Speaker 2: guy who is what twenty twenty one to an Hall
8:10
Speaker 2: of famer.
8:11
Speaker 3: This is why we love football.
8:13
Speaker 2: It's the best, especially when they come on there and
8:15
Speaker 2: it's always about, you know, comparing someone that you know,
8:20
Speaker 2: the ceiling best case scenario is that player and they
8:24
Speaker 2: never reached that potential, right or they exceed it in
8:27
Speaker 2: many ways.
8:27
Speaker 3: So I'm with you it is stupid. But it's someone
8:30
Speaker 3: that likes.
8:30
Speaker 2: Watching the draft. I love it because if it's your guy,
8:34
Speaker 2: you see it in your own mind, right, You're like, oh,
8:36
Speaker 2: I can see that comparison if you're this guy's been
8:38
Speaker 2: drafting your team.
8:39
Speaker 3: But I'm with you. Chat.
8:41
Speaker 2: Every year, it's gotten worse since they've started doing I
8:43
Speaker 2: feel like they started doing the mid two thousands. Now
8:45
Speaker 2: it's just absurd at this point. So, uh yeah, I
8:47
Speaker 2: would love your thorts take on it.
8:50
Speaker 4: I clearly have a different take on player cons you know,
8:53
Speaker 4: especially when I didn't have this full time, going back
8:56
Speaker 4: to when I was a kid, right, I mean, you
8:58
Speaker 4: get a fourth rowned player you've never ever seen him before.
9:01
Speaker 3: And a lot of times ESPN.
9:03
Speaker 4: You know, you start going on day three, the picks
9:05
Speaker 4: are quicker, and then it's the thing of like, oh,
9:07
Speaker 4: here's here's the last six picks, and maybe mel could
9:11
Speaker 4: speak to one of the six guys. And if one
9:13
Speaker 4: of the six guys, you know it wasn't the Viking
9:16
Speaker 4: on the list.
9:17
Speaker 3: I was always frustrated because it's.
9:18
Speaker 4: Like, I want to know that you know a little
9:20
Speaker 4: bit about that player's game that putting it in the
9:23
Speaker 4: five hundred board with the comp and then just the
9:25
Speaker 4: basics the height, weight measurements, the RADS score. I'm trying
9:29
Speaker 4: to put a totem in in that person's had who's
9:32
Speaker 4: never seen that player before of of you know, expected
9:36
Speaker 4: career progression, uh, and a guy that was similar the
9:40
Speaker 4: size and the athleticism and hopefully playing style as well.
9:43
Speaker 4: You can't always hit uh, you know, the all four
9:45
Speaker 4: of those with one bullet.
9:47
Speaker 3: I try to be as realistic as.
9:49
Speaker 4: I can with those comps while keeping it trying to
9:52
Speaker 4: have it so that audience members know who those players are.
9:56
Speaker 4: When I'm when I'm ranking a guy as a UDFA,
9:59
Speaker 4: I not only and I not rank him to a
10:00
Speaker 4: Hall of Famer I can't rank him to a guy
10:02
Speaker 4: who had a long successful career or any success really, right,
10:06
Speaker 4: And so you're again you're trying to get it as
10:09
Speaker 4: close to the career progression as possible, and I see
10:11
Speaker 4: you as a UDFA. That's where it gets interesting for me.
10:15
Speaker 4: The college football ciccos, Stucky and Wilson. You shouted them
10:18
Speaker 4: out before. Guys like that you will appreciate down the
10:22
Speaker 4: board my comps. I think you know college football cycles
10:25
Speaker 4: might appreciate those the most. But I'm with you, guys,
10:28
Speaker 4: I try to keep it within the fairway as far
10:30
Speaker 4: as fair expectations with that. So I hope that criticism
10:33
Speaker 4: that you guys have a comps in general, I hope
10:35
Speaker 4: when you look through my board you feel like I've
10:38
Speaker 4: addressed that.
10:39
Speaker 1: Do you have a That was such a respectful answer
10:43
Speaker 1: when I'm trying to insult you first question off the bat.
10:46
Speaker 1: I appreciate the respectful discourse. Give me an example of
10:53
Speaker 1: a player comp that you've done in the recent past
10:58
Speaker 1: or throughout the years you've been doing this. You were
11:01
Speaker 1: in grade school and board that you're like, oh, I
11:04
Speaker 1: nailed that. It was like a whatever the pick was,
11:07
Speaker 1: whether it was a high pick and you got a
11:10
Speaker 1: you you comped it to a really high level player
11:13
Speaker 1: or a mid round pick or by the way u
11:15
Speaker 1: dfa undrafted free agent. Like, give me an example of
11:18
Speaker 1: a player comp that you nailed.
11:20
Speaker 4: I would say, and this wasn't even the best player
11:24
Speaker 4: comp but uh, but it worked and it fits this situation.
11:28
Speaker 4: I had Lamar Jackson as a top five overall player
11:30
Speaker 4: in his class and I comped him the right handed
11:33
Speaker 4: Michael Vick and it wasn't perfect to get. You know,
11:35
Speaker 4: vic had more arm strength. There's slight there's slight differences
11:39
Speaker 4: with them as as runners as well, and and Jackson
11:42
Speaker 4: was more polished as a passer coming out. He played
11:45
Speaker 4: at the ear Heart in the ear Heart Perkins system
11:48
Speaker 4: for Bobby Patrino at Louisville. Earhart Perkins is what Bill
11:51
Speaker 4: Parcells used the Giants their dynasty, and then Bill Belichick
11:54
Speaker 4: with the Patriots. It's Earhart Perkins is the offense that
11:57
Speaker 4: Tom Brady ran. But there was enough similarities there and
12:00
Speaker 4: a very unique player coming into the league. We hadn't
12:02
Speaker 4: seen many guys like Lamar Jackson, so that was I
12:07
Speaker 4: guess that would be probably be one of my pet
12:09
Speaker 4: favorite ones. What about your worst that same class at
12:14
Speaker 4: rank Josh Rosen first overall, So I can't really come on, yeah,
12:18
Speaker 4: I'll take my flowers for Jackson one of my best
12:20
Speaker 4: calls with the draft, and then but then four slots
12:22
Speaker 4: ahead of it, I made one of my worst. So yeah,
12:25
Speaker 4: you know, you make five hundred predictions on out comes
12:28
Speaker 4: that haven't occurred yet, which is what a five hundred
12:30
Speaker 4: prospect draft board is. You're gonna be wrong a whole
12:33
Speaker 4: onch each year. You're just trying to be right more
12:35
Speaker 4: than wrong. Chad is very much like sports betting, you know.
12:38
Speaker 4: I mean that's you cannot get one hundred percent of
12:41
Speaker 4: your bets right, you can, It's hard to even get
12:44
Speaker 4: to sixty five or close to that, right, You're trying
12:46
Speaker 4: to break the what is it, fifty one and a
12:48
Speaker 4: half percent where you beat the big any anywhere in there, right,
12:53
Speaker 4: Like we're trying to get fifty five, fifty six, fifty
12:55
Speaker 4: eight percent season over the whole course of it.
12:59
Speaker 3: With the value it's closer to that.
13:01
Speaker 4: You're just trying to juice your odds at the margins
13:03
Speaker 4: and then just push it a little bit higher than
13:05
Speaker 4: your your colleagues are.
13:06
Speaker 3: In that case, the books.
13:08
Speaker 1: Here's what I love. Your big your latest big board.
13:14
Speaker 1: You got Travis Enter Hunter number one overall and the
13:18
Speaker 1: comp shohey Otani. I think is great and super creative
13:25
Speaker 1: and brilliant. But if someone is looking at this at
13:28
Speaker 1: fantasy life, how do you justify it and explain it
13:35
Speaker 1: so they take it seriously that you're not just sort
13:37
Speaker 1: of saying, all right, here's a great all around two
13:40
Speaker 1: way player and there's no comp in football, So you
13:44
Speaker 1: got to go with the comp in baseball? How do
13:45
Speaker 1: you how do you put it in context for football?
13:49
Speaker 3: Yeah?
13:49
Speaker 4: So with comms, the thing that I don't like is
13:51
Speaker 4: doing like or Man's blank, a rich Man's blank, or
13:55
Speaker 4: this guy with you know, I like to just have
13:57
Speaker 4: it be the name when I can. And so what
14:00
Speaker 4: I started with Hunter is like, Okay, which individuals could
14:02
Speaker 4: I comp them to? And that's a very short list
14:05
Speaker 4: that you even theoretically could, right, Deon Sanders, maybe Champ Bailey,
14:10
Speaker 4: maybe Charles Woodson. Maybe none of them really fit though,
14:14
Speaker 4: And so then it was like, all right, I'm you know,
14:16
Speaker 4: scrap dat, I'll go wide receiver Travis Hunter, Odell Beckham
14:22
Speaker 4: feel good about that cornerback and you know then I
14:25
Speaker 4: was thinking through it, and then it's like, this is
14:26
Speaker 4: getting too convoluted. We've never seen something like Travis Hunter before.
14:30
Speaker 4: We just call him shoey Otani because it's the same
14:33
Speaker 4: sort of a thing.
14:34
Speaker 3: It puts.
14:34
Speaker 4: It puts the more accurate totem in the reader's brain
14:37
Speaker 4: of this is a two way guy that is unprecedented
14:40
Speaker 4: for the sport.
14:41
Speaker 3: And so is it a little bit silly? Yeah?
14:43
Speaker 4: Is it the first time that I on my five
14:44
Speaker 4: hundred board that I have someone commed to a professional
14:46
Speaker 4: baseball player?
14:47
Speaker 3: Yeah, but this is.
14:48
Speaker 4: A unicorn, you know, And I found it funny, and
14:50
Speaker 4: I've been calling him show hey, all process and a
14:53
Speaker 4: unicorn all process, and some of it is silly. But
14:55
Speaker 4: then Andrew Barry last week Cleveland Brown's GM goes up
14:58
Speaker 4: there at his press conference and repeated refers to Travis
15:01
Speaker 4: Hunter at shoheo tawani and a unicorn. So you know
15:04
Speaker 4: it's I think they found what I found, which is
15:08
Speaker 4: I'm not saying he copied me. I think he went
15:09
Speaker 4: along the same process of there's not a guy in
15:12
Speaker 4: NFL history that one to one I can comp this
15:14
Speaker 4: guy too.
15:15
Speaker 1: Listen, you got to start taking some Matthew Berry lessons
15:18
Speaker 1: about marketing. He copied you read your stuff. He loved it.
15:24
Speaker 1: He's like this guy Thor I'm with him. He's got
15:28
Speaker 1: the power of the hammer, and I believe this is
15:30
Speaker 1: the absolute right comparison.
15:32
Speaker 3: So just to own it, we're gonna go with that.
15:34
Speaker 3: I accept that interpretation.
15:36
Speaker 1: Tell Barry, I gave you that idea.
15:38
Speaker 3: Done, okay.
15:39
Speaker 2: Yeah, So looking at your big board here, it is
15:42
Speaker 2: pretty interesting that you know, you, as a lot of
15:45
Speaker 2: other rankers have Sanders ahead of cam Ward and you know,
15:48
Speaker 2: I've seen mel Kiper he's been talking about think Joe
15:50
Speaker 2: Klatt even talked about having Sators above him. What's your
15:55
Speaker 2: explanation for that? Is it just you you like Sanders
15:57
Speaker 2: game to transition better in the NFL, or you just
16:00
Speaker 2: don't like Ward's game compared to Sanders game.
16:03
Speaker 4: Yeah, they're one spot a part of my big board
16:05
Speaker 4: eight and nine. I do have Sanders eight and Sanders
16:08
Speaker 4: was my bell to bell quarterback one. I do like
16:10
Speaker 4: him a little bit more and like him a little
16:12
Speaker 4: bit more in the translation to the NFL Shoulder, Sanders
16:15
Speaker 4: elite accuracy, elite placement, could put that ball wherever he wants.
16:19
Speaker 4: It consistently leads guys into space, does cool things with
16:22
Speaker 4: the ball, shading it away from defenders, giving his receiver
16:24
Speaker 4: the best of it. That thing of facilitating the yak
16:27
Speaker 4: yardage with leading the receiver into space. The other thing
16:31
Speaker 4: with that is he does not turn the ball over,
16:33
Speaker 4: So it's it's it's. Those two skills absolutely will translate
16:38
Speaker 4: to the NFL. The chain mover guy the elite accuracy
16:42
Speaker 4: and is going to take care of the ball for you,
16:44
Speaker 4: whereas with just super steady Eddie should hear Sanders, whereas
16:47
Speaker 4: with Cam moored you get more of the roller coaster ride.
16:50
Speaker 3: Cam Word for.
16:51
Speaker 4: Sure has the better arm, no question about it, and
16:54
Speaker 4: it leads to more explosive plays that you know, but
16:57
Speaker 4: that comes in conjunction with an elevated turnover rate. Last year,
17:00
Speaker 4: Cam woard three times Shudier Sanders' turnover worthy play rate.
17:05
Speaker 4: And the way that I see this, my supposition is
17:08
Speaker 4: that you cannot lower the turnover worthy play rate and
17:12
Speaker 4: what you see with Cam ord with that without doing
17:15
Speaker 4: so in kind to his explosive play rate.
17:17
Speaker 3: This is the Brett fav corollary.
17:19
Speaker 4: You can't make him be more conservative without again in
17:23
Speaker 4: kind lowering the explosive plays. To get access to all
17:26
Speaker 4: those explosive plays, you have to live.
17:29
Speaker 3: With the turnovers. So Cam Woard's team, you are going
17:32
Speaker 3: to experience more of the up and down.
17:34
Speaker 4: There's there's gonna be game flipping plays where he makes
17:37
Speaker 4: it throw that you that you haven't seen a while
17:39
Speaker 4: and it's gonna lead to an explosive play. There's also
17:41
Speaker 4: going to be times where people are putting their heads
17:44
Speaker 4: through walls because he threw an interception to flipped the
17:46
Speaker 4: game late. So I mean you're gonna have to live
17:48
Speaker 4: with some of that kind of stuff. I do like
17:50
Speaker 4: the ceiling on that player, but I think there's always
17:52
Speaker 4: going to be the elevated turnover rate within his game.
17:56
Speaker 1: Have you interesting?
17:57
Speaker 3: I got so?
17:58
Speaker 4: Have you?
17:58
Speaker 2: Or would you take a position on his over under
18:01
Speaker 2: of eight and a half. It's up to plus two
18:03
Speaker 2: eighty five plus three hundred a lot of books. So
18:05
Speaker 2: do you think he's gonna go under that or do
18:06
Speaker 2: you think he's going over eight and a half? Pick
18:08
Speaker 2: plus two eighty five is the over under plus two
18:12
Speaker 2: eighty five?
18:13
Speaker 1: Oh?
18:13
Speaker 4: I would nibble on that for sure. I don't think
18:16
Speaker 4: that's a fixed outcome. I mean the Giants. Why would
18:18
Speaker 4: their ownership ship group have gone to Shudeer Sanders' last
18:22
Speaker 4: private workout, including with their coaching staff, if they weren't interested. Definitely,
18:26
Speaker 4: not saying the Giants will take him, but I think
18:28
Speaker 4: it's it's you know, the two outcomes before that I
18:30
Speaker 4: think are fixed cam Or one Travis Hunter two. I
18:34
Speaker 4: think the Giants pick it's like eighty five percent Abdul Carter,
18:38
Speaker 4: but I do think you have to put fifteen percent
18:40
Speaker 4: on Setier saying something like that, just because of the
18:43
Speaker 4: presence of that. And then I also think, you know,
18:45
Speaker 4: you look at some of the slots, you know in
18:48
Speaker 4: between there's a possibility not only for trades, but you know,
18:52
Speaker 4: you could see Shudeer Sanders go before that. It'll be
18:54
Speaker 4: interesting to see what the Saints and the nine slot.
18:57
Speaker 4: Obviously that number is nodding to that. Do the Saints gets.
19:01
Speaker 4: Are the Saints in on Shudeer Sanders. We'll see on that,
19:04
Speaker 4: and then did they get skittish if they are teams
19:07
Speaker 4: trying to move hop them? So I but at those
19:10
Speaker 4: odds nearly three to one, I would nibble on the under.
19:14
Speaker 1: Here's what's interesting to me. You've got should or Sanders comp.
19:19
Speaker 1: If we're going to go into the comps and now
19:20
Speaker 1: I love them, it's Baker Mayfield Ward is Jordan Love.
19:26
Speaker 1: The way you described cam Ward and the high turnover
19:32
Speaker 1: probability and the difficulty in taking that down, that to
19:36
Speaker 1: me feels more like Baker Mayfield than Jordan Love. I thought,
19:40
Speaker 1: you know, last year could be an anomaly with Jordan Love
19:43
Speaker 1: because he was injured for much of the year. So
19:46
Speaker 1: why the Jordan Love comp for Baker may for cam
19:52
Speaker 1: Ward when Baker Mayfield is usually the guy who is
19:54
Speaker 1: more prone to turnovers. And the kind of play I
20:00
Speaker 1: think you've just described is akin to the way Kim
20:04
Speaker 1: Ward plays.
20:05
Speaker 4: Yeah, as you guys know, like prospects, when they get
20:07
Speaker 4: into the NFL, this circumstance and the situation that they're
20:10
Speaker 4: in can obviously heavily influence them. It can make or
20:14
Speaker 4: break them, and it can also change somewhat their tendency
20:17
Speaker 4: as players, you know, through this scheme and through the
20:20
Speaker 4: culture and whatnot. When Jordan Love came out of Utah State,
20:23
Speaker 4: I believe his last season there it was twelve to
20:26
Speaker 4: fourteen interceptions. It was like he threw a bunch of interceptions,
20:29
Speaker 4: but you had the really cool stuff with the side arm,
20:32
Speaker 4: the slots getting the ball out quickly, had all the
20:35
Speaker 4: arm talent in the world, and he got his multiple
20:39
Speaker 4: years sitting in the NFL trying to work through some
20:41
Speaker 4: of that stuff waiting his turn and the Green Bay
20:45
Speaker 4: Packers system. Now there has been some inoculation of that,
20:48
Speaker 4: but he has obviously improved with that with that comp
20:51
Speaker 4: I am nodding back to Jordan Love coming out of
20:54
Speaker 4: Utah State with Kim Moore, you know, the similar things
20:59
Speaker 4: You're going to have to work on there, you know.
21:02
Speaker 4: But again, I think that turnover worthy rate's going to
21:04
Speaker 4: stay high. But I just think the prospect of Cammore
21:07
Speaker 4: coming out of Miami is very similar to what we
21:09
Speaker 4: saw with Jordan Love coming out of Utah State.
21:12
Speaker 1: Simon, right now, if you had to make a bet,
21:16
Speaker 1: would you rather bet on Baker Mayfield or would you
21:20
Speaker 1: rather bet on Jordan Love as a quarterback? Who are
21:23
Speaker 1: you more comfortable betting on?
21:26
Speaker 3: We?
21:26
Speaker 2: We all I know here on this show chat, we're
21:27
Speaker 2: a Baker show.
21:28
Speaker 1: I was going to say to me, it's Baker. I'm
21:32
Speaker 1: not sure I'm betting on Jordan Love without Matt Lafleur.
21:36
Speaker 1: But I just think that's an interesting comp I like
21:38
Speaker 1: what Thor did here because you guys know, you guys
21:41
Speaker 1: know how much I love the comps. And now I'm
21:44
Speaker 1: all in, and so I do not have to be
21:46
Speaker 1: intractable when it comes to my positions and opinions. Going
21:51
Speaker 1: back Thor till last year, even before JJ McCarthy was
21:56
Speaker 1: drafted by Minnesota, you were all over McCarthy, one of
22:01
Speaker 1: his loudest, most public advocates. Explain what brought you to
22:08
Speaker 1: that conclusion? Do you still feel that way with him
22:12
Speaker 1: coming off the injury?
22:14
Speaker 4: For sure, I do it to the latter and to
22:16
Speaker 4: the former. People are just missing it with him early
22:18
Speaker 4: in the process. I gotta, you know, watch all the
22:20
Speaker 4: Michigan games live down the stretch. When they won the
22:22
Speaker 4: national title, they faced the procession of just killer defense,
22:25
Speaker 4: as that's what a top ten pick looks like, beating
22:28
Speaker 4: the Iowa's, the Penn States, the Ohio States, you know,
22:31
Speaker 4: and then getting into the playoff. Like I said, it
22:33
Speaker 4: was just sort of a murders row of defense, as
22:36
Speaker 4: culminating in the Semis against Nick Saban's Alabama Crimson tied
22:40
Speaker 4: out a nasty defense and Michigan doesn't roar back without
22:43
Speaker 4: JJ McCarthy to advance the national title, and obviously they
22:46
Speaker 4: whipped Washington once they got there.
22:47
Speaker 3: But McCarthy elite athlete. He had a tight.
22:50
Speaker 4: Hamstring at the Combine last year, he still ran the
22:52
Speaker 4: six fastest three cone of anyone at any position. He
22:55
Speaker 4: didn't do the runs there because of that hamstring. But
22:58
Speaker 4: at Michigan they said his last own tests were high
23:00
Speaker 4: four to fours. Kevin O'Connell said that he would be
23:04
Speaker 4: low four five's. But however, you want to see that.
23:06
Speaker 4: You see the mobility on the field, he makes people miss.
23:09
Speaker 3: One of the.
23:09
Speaker 4: Better on the run throwers that you will see. He
23:12
Speaker 4: keeps his mechanics with him no matter what when he
23:15
Speaker 4: is moving behind the line of scrimmage, so he can
23:17
Speaker 4: access all three sectors of the field, and he keeps
23:20
Speaker 4: his eyes down field, so you'll see some really cool
23:22
Speaker 4: stuff with him creating out of structure in structure. He
23:26
Speaker 4: was his wild stallion, sort of a Prospect five star
23:29
Speaker 4: when he went to Michigan, and then he played in
23:31
Speaker 4: the pro style offense for Jim Harbo, the twelve personnel
23:34
Speaker 4: pro style offense that is very earily similar to what
23:37
Speaker 4: Kevin O'Connell runs. But in that system you had to
23:40
Speaker 4: learn to play within structure, right, So it's this potential
23:43
Speaker 4: out of structure virtue also of a prospect that was
23:46
Speaker 4: broken to play in that, you know, within the concepts
23:50
Speaker 4: of that pro style system. And by the end of
23:52
Speaker 4: his career, the third season before his twenty first birthday,
23:54
Speaker 4: on the season where they ended up winning the national title,
23:57
Speaker 4: he was the best thrower of the ball intermediate between
24:00
Speaker 4: the hashes in the country. He was also the best
24:03
Speaker 4: quarterback in the country on all the high leverage throws.
24:06
Speaker 4: He cut the numbers third and medium, third and long,
24:09
Speaker 4: all those sorts of things. He had, you know, a
24:11
Speaker 4: good sample of those throws, and he was the most
24:14
Speaker 4: efficient and the best in the class, and by the way,
24:16
Speaker 4: against by far the hardest strength of schedule of any
24:19
Speaker 4: of those six top quarterbacks and in the highest leverage spots.
24:22
Speaker 4: Of course, they made that run to the national title.
24:25
Speaker 4: People are like, oh, JJ, he was supported by his
24:27
Speaker 4: supporting cast and they were the ones that carried him there. Really,
24:31
Speaker 4: when he got to Michigan, they were two and four.
24:33
Speaker 4: The team was so bad that they were considering firing
24:35
Speaker 4: Jim Harbor in fact, he had to go into the
24:37
Speaker 4: university president's office and accept frustrate himself essentially and accept
24:41
Speaker 4: a salary reduction in order to stay. JJ came in
24:45
Speaker 4: the next recruiting class. They've made the playoffs three straight seasons,
24:49
Speaker 4: obviously the last season with that national title.
24:52
Speaker 3: So this kid is ready to play.
24:54
Speaker 4: Jim harbaught that NFL coach that he played for, the
24:56
Speaker 4: citing NFL head coach that he was the best prospect
24:58
Speaker 4: in last year's class. I wasn't quite as high, so
25:00
Speaker 4: I wasn't the highest guy on McCarthy. That definitely would
25:03
Speaker 4: have been Jim. But I have McCarthy number three overall
25:05
Speaker 4: on my board.
25:06
Speaker 1: Simon, before I know, you want to jump in with
25:08
Speaker 1: a question. You're all over Michigan. You've got well Johnson
25:14
Speaker 1: other than Travis Hunter being the top corner. You've got
25:18
Speaker 1: their two defensive tackles very highly ranked. You love their
25:23
Speaker 1: tight end. What is it about the Michigan program you've
25:27
Speaker 1: seen in the years of doing this kind of coverage,
25:31
Speaker 1: especially lately, that has helped them develop such high potential
25:37
Speaker 1: draft picks.
25:38
Speaker 4: The development that Harbaugh does, he identifies the dudes obviously
25:42
Speaker 4: their national recruiting brand, it was an NFL program, the
25:46
Speaker 4: training program that they had there, it was NFL ask
25:49
Speaker 4: and finding guys that can fit the system and then
25:51
Speaker 4: sort of build them up. These guys that come out
25:54
Speaker 4: of the Michigan program that Harbaugh had, Harbaugh brought in,
25:57
Speaker 4: there's a lot of polish to those skill set and
26:00
Speaker 4: they were playing four NFL coaches in NFL systems, which
26:04
Speaker 4: obviously a poc NFL and now with that coaching staff
26:08
Speaker 4: half of it or more. And also guys that were
26:10
Speaker 4: in the pro that are not the the personnel department
26:13
Speaker 4: for Michigan identifying the talent whatnot. A lot of those
26:16
Speaker 4: guys are in the NFL now sort of spread around.
26:19
Speaker 4: Some of them followed Jim. His son Jay is the
26:22
Speaker 4: Seahawks Special Teams coordinator, Spy Tech is the Raiders GM.
26:27
Speaker 4: They're all over the place. So you see that influence
26:30
Speaker 4: as well. And then I mean, beyond that the other
26:32
Speaker 4: hardbaughs that are in the NFL and then the branches
26:35
Speaker 4: of those threes. So the intel is sort of all
26:37
Speaker 4: out there on these polished prospects and makes for an
26:40
Speaker 4: easier acclamation of the NFL.
26:42
Speaker 2: Yeah, last week, Chad, it was it was probably the
26:44
Speaker 2: biggest ups that we had where I had so many
26:46
Speaker 2: professionals better reach out to me about Todd mcshag like,
26:49
Speaker 2: he came on here and said a lot and he
26:51
Speaker 2: kept me busy all weekend. I basically my biggest position
26:53
Speaker 2: at this point is Ashton genty being a top you know,
26:57
Speaker 2: six and a half pick, so basically the odds. On
27:00
Speaker 2: our show, Chad, he says he likes gent to be
27:03
Speaker 2: a higher pick that people realize. And you know, he
27:06
Speaker 2: gave up that Patriots nugget which was sixteen to one
27:08
Speaker 2: when he said it is now down to six to one,
27:11
Speaker 2: which is pretty insane. It was eight and a half
27:15
Speaker 2: minus two hundred to go under eight and a half pick.
27:19
Speaker 2: Now it's down to under six and a half minus
27:22
Speaker 2: four fifty. So I took a large position. Shout out
27:25
Speaker 2: to our guy, Todd McShay, I would love to know
27:28
Speaker 2: your review. Thor On, is this news of this running
27:32
Speaker 2: back moving up the top five reel? Are you seeing
27:34
Speaker 2: guys mock him as the Patriots or the Jaguars or
27:37
Speaker 2: is it just all a smoke screen and the Patriots
27:41
Speaker 2: are going to pass on him, the Jags are gonna
27:44
Speaker 2: pass on the Raiders will pass on him. I'm about
27:45
Speaker 2: to lose a ton of money, is what is happening
27:48
Speaker 2: right now? This running back and being a top five pick.
27:50
Speaker 3: Gensy for sure is in play for the top five
27:53
Speaker 3: the end. The floor for him is six.
27:54
Speaker 4: Like if he gets there, the Raiders are going to
27:56
Speaker 4: take him, and so that, you know, it becomes the
27:59
Speaker 4: race with that that I as far as the Patriots
28:02
Speaker 4: go with it. My take on the Patriots is it's
28:05
Speaker 4: been sort of sneaky and sort of suspicious that it's
28:08
Speaker 4: just like, oh, yeah, it's Will Campbell. That's another free
28:10
Speaker 4: spot on the point. Why is why is it Will Campbell?
28:12
Speaker 4: I don't think Will Campbell can play tackle in the NFL,
28:15
Speaker 4: much less succeed at it. We don't have any data
28:18
Speaker 4: for a guy whose arms are that short and wingspan
28:20
Speaker 4: is that short, even hanging at tackle. So I think
28:22
Speaker 4: that's an interior player. And then you know, you hear
28:26
Speaker 4: when people are like, why you know, why do you
28:28
Speaker 4: like Will Campbell so much? Oh, he's so great in interviews,
28:30
Speaker 4: He's such a good guy. That doesn't justify the fourth pick.
28:33
Speaker 4: If you were the Patriots and then people just assumed
28:35
Speaker 4: you were going to take Will Campbell, would you tell
28:37
Speaker 4: your media contacts, No, no, no, it's not gonna be Will Campbell.
28:40
Speaker 4: It's going to be whether it's Gentee, whether it's you know,
28:42
Speaker 4: whoever the real target is. Or would you just be like, yeah,
28:45
Speaker 4: they're right, we're gonna take Will Campbell.
28:47
Speaker 2: Right, I'll just say, generally speaking, are there any bets
28:51
Speaker 2: that you've made, Like, are there like draft markets you've
28:54
Speaker 2: been attacking? Are you just being patient kind of seeing
28:56
Speaker 2: how this week's going to settle because people they think
28:58
Speaker 2: it's gonna be really chalk. I don't know about you,
29:00
Speaker 2: and I feel like those are the best years you
29:02
Speaker 2: could take advantage where everyone thinks they know the first
29:05
Speaker 2: four picks two weeks before the draft, Like that's what it.
29:08
Speaker 3: Feels like this year.
29:09
Speaker 2: Are there any markets you're attacking or are you just being patient?
29:12
Speaker 3: It's not gonna be shocked.
29:14
Speaker 4: We're gonna be in for a while night on Thursday.
29:17
Speaker 4: The drafts where you can predict them easier, it's the
29:20
Speaker 4: ones where I mean two things, you have more of
29:22
Speaker 4: the top first round quarterbacks, right, because those guys become
29:26
Speaker 4: free spots on the board. Last year we had the
29:27
Speaker 4: six of them, we didn't know where all of them
29:29
Speaker 4: were going. We knew where a few of them were
29:31
Speaker 4: going in advance, not but you knew that they were
29:33
Speaker 4: going to go fairly high. So you got some free
29:36
Speaker 4: spots on the board there and then otherwise just elite
29:38
Speaker 4: prospects at premium positions.
29:39
Speaker 3: We have less of those in this class.
29:41
Speaker 4: Right, The receiver class is way down to left tackle
29:44
Speaker 4: class is way down and you know some of those
29:47
Speaker 4: different premium positions. So because of that, we have less
29:51
Speaker 4: predictability here, right. I know that, like I said, no,
29:54
Speaker 4: the first two picks feel decent. Is ish about the
29:57
Speaker 4: third one? After that, I think this thing is wide open.
30:00
Speaker 4: I think you're going to see a lot of trades.
30:02
Speaker 4: I think you're going to see unexpected guys fall and
30:05
Speaker 4: then unexpected guys get pulled up, and I think that
30:07
Speaker 4: that's going to lead to movement as well. But yeah,
30:09
Speaker 4: I don't think that this is going to be predictable
30:11
Speaker 4: at all the way that this class is constituted.
30:14
Speaker 1: Well, look, you just mentioned you've got a lot of
30:17
Speaker 1: trades your do two round mock last week, including predictions
30:22
Speaker 1: about how many quarterbacks go in the first round. You
30:25
Speaker 1: know that number two and a half, three and a
30:27
Speaker 1: half has been an active market. You mocked multiple trades.
30:32
Speaker 1: So far there haven't been any, right, and so this
30:35
Speaker 1: is the latest weep scene before the draft with zero movement.
30:40
Speaker 1: Why do you feel so confident?
30:44
Speaker 4: Well, I think there's a wait and see element with
30:46
Speaker 4: some of these NFL teams because of this sort of
30:48
Speaker 4: uncertain paradigm that we find ourselves saying. You know that
30:50
Speaker 4: that I was just sort of speaking to. And I
30:52
Speaker 4: think because of that, you're actively monitoring the situations that
30:55
Speaker 4: your designated position groups of your team needs. You're gonna
30:59
Speaker 4: have to do that in the mom because what is
31:00
Speaker 4: the scenario, right Like, this is like a it's like
31:03
Speaker 4: a doctor strange draft, right Like, at once you get
31:06
Speaker 4: to four, if that thing is different than Will Campbell,
31:09
Speaker 4: it opens up all these realities that we didn't know before. Right,
31:12
Speaker 4: and then the fifth pick ex right, I mean if Jens'
31:15
Speaker 4: is not the fourth pick, but then he could absolutely
31:18
Speaker 4: go five, and it absolutely could be via a trade.
31:22
Speaker 4: These things are going to open up these again, these
31:24
Speaker 4: possibilities we haven't seen before. And for teams, I think
31:27
Speaker 4: that's what they're waiting for. Is there a scenario where
31:29
Speaker 4: let's say it's a wide receiver needy team in the twenties.
31:32
Speaker 4: Is there a shot that Tedroll McMillan starts to fall
31:35
Speaker 4: deeper than we think right, and we can get access
31:37
Speaker 4: to him. Maybe he doesn't fall the way to us,
31:39
Speaker 4: but maybe that we can make a small move up
31:41
Speaker 4: the board for him. I think that's what it is.
31:44
Speaker 4: I think this sets up for more trades during the draft.
31:47
Speaker 4: But because the environment that we're in not pre draft
31:50
Speaker 4: like the one with the Vikings and the Texans last
31:52
Speaker 4: year that was like a month or six weeks before
31:55
Speaker 4: the draft, where the Vikings were able to get the
31:57
Speaker 4: other first round pick, right, they were able to package
32:01
Speaker 4: you know, some of that in order to do that.
32:03
Speaker 4: They were doing that because the quarterback environment, right, they
32:07
Speaker 4: wanted the second bullet to potentially be able to trade up.
32:10
Speaker 4: They just didn't want to be boxed out of those
32:12
Speaker 4: top quarterbacks. And you know, of course the Bears with
32:14
Speaker 4: the Panthers was a year before that, that big trade,
32:18
Speaker 4: the Bryce Young one that was done in advance because
32:20
Speaker 4: of the quarterback. A lot of times it's the really
32:22
Speaker 4: strong quarterback classes that lead to the trades in.
32:25
Speaker 3: Advance of it. But yeah, the quarterback class down this year.
32:29
Speaker 1: So speaking of quarterbacks in your mock, you had three
32:34
Speaker 1: qbs in the first round. Tell everybody who those qbs are,
32:39
Speaker 1: and I would assume that means, depending on the market,
32:42
Speaker 1: you're going to be betting over two and a half
32:44
Speaker 1: or under three and a half quarterbacks in the first round.
32:48
Speaker 1: But explain your positioning on quarterbacks right now.
32:51
Speaker 3: Yeah, I had Dirt going twenty one to the Steelers,
32:55
Speaker 3: and so like, you know, you look ten days or
32:59
Speaker 3: you know, two weeks ago, you know, in advance of that,
33:01
Speaker 3: I would have I would have said under two and
33:03
Speaker 3: a half quarterbacks. But the way that this steam has
33:05
Speaker 3: gone and the new and whatnot, I'm going over that
33:08
Speaker 3: for sure.
33:09
Speaker 4: And that you know, the three and a half market,
33:11
Speaker 4: the adjusted one, you know, I would potentially be interested
33:14
Speaker 4: in that, depending on the price of going over that too.
33:16
Speaker 4: Guyse Jackson Dart looks like he has a decent shot
33:20
Speaker 4: to go in the first round. I think the Steelers
33:22
Speaker 4: are the fit that makes the most sense. Obviously obviously
33:25
Speaker 4: have a need there. And then an Arthur Smith's offense.
33:27
Speaker 4: You have a lot of the play action concepts throwing deep.
33:30
Speaker 4: Jackson Dart did a lot of that, the mobility as
33:33
Speaker 4: well that Arthur Smith likes Jackson Dart has that as well.
33:36
Speaker 4: And then the Jalen Milroe is the other guy. Jalen
33:40
Speaker 4: Milroe sort of the mystery guy there who's lurking. Opened
33:43
Speaker 4: up a lot of eyes when the NFL invited Jalen
33:45
Speaker 4: Milroe to the NFL Draft. The NFL does not make
33:48
Speaker 4: a lot of mistakes with their invites, and so that
33:50
Speaker 4: was tipping off and telegraphing to you that Jalen Milroe
33:52
Speaker 4: is going to go not only higher than the media
33:55
Speaker 4: had assumed, but that he has a real shot to
33:57
Speaker 4: get into the first round. And I think this scenario
34:00
Speaker 4: that makes all the sense in the world. There is
34:01
Speaker 4: the Cleveland Browns trading up from thirty three a couple
34:04
Speaker 4: spots and taking Jalen Milroe at the end of the
34:07
Speaker 4: first round. Cleveland Browns is offensive coordinator. Tommy Reese was
34:10
Speaker 4: the offensive coordinator at Alabama in twenty twenty three when
34:13
Speaker 4: Jalen Milroe down the stretch there looked like a future
34:16
Speaker 4: number one overall pick. It wasn't until last year. Down
34:18
Speaker 4: the stretch through the end of September, jala Melroe still
34:22
Speaker 4: looked like a future number one overall pick. He shredded
34:24
Speaker 4: Georgia's defense like you never see a quarterback shred a
34:28
Speaker 4: Kirby smart defense. At the end of September. It devolved
34:31
Speaker 4: from there though, down the stretch and Doub's where the
34:33
Speaker 4: push and pull came. With Kayalin Debor trying to get
34:36
Speaker 4: Jaln Milroe shoved the square peg into the round hole
34:39
Speaker 4: of his passing offense. The boar did not want Milroe
34:41
Speaker 4: to leave the pocket. Wanted to pin him in there
34:43
Speaker 4: on the passing concepts and get the ball out. And
34:46
Speaker 4: with Jalen Milroe, you have to let him off the
34:48
Speaker 4: leash to give him the freedom to be able to
34:50
Speaker 4: run as well when he doesn't see it. Tommy Reese
34:53
Speaker 4: knows how to construct an offense around him. That's what
34:55
Speaker 4: Andrew Berry was talking about last week at his press conference.
34:57
Speaker 4: So I think that would be the fourth one there.
35:00
Speaker 2: And you talked about how this draft, I mean a
35:03
Speaker 2: lot of people have that. It's just really solid throughout right.
35:06
Speaker 2: It's not so much you know, blue Chippers top heavy,
35:09
Speaker 2: but you know you can get a great pick at
35:11
Speaker 2: you know, pick forty five is the same pick as
35:13
Speaker 2: someone's taken apparently at twelve or thirteen. Like that's how
35:16
Speaker 2: deep people think these d lines. Are you know the dns?
35:20
Speaker 2: I'm interesting, Do you have anyone because I've talked a
35:22
Speaker 2: lot of pros they have guys like you know, Jack Sawyer,
35:25
Speaker 2: who's eighteen to one now to be our first rounder.
35:27
Speaker 2: Do you have anyone like that you could see sneaking
35:28
Speaker 2: into the first round that has crazy long shot value?
35:31
Speaker 2: Right now where it's such a draft of randomness, is
35:34
Speaker 2: there someone that really jumps out.
35:35
Speaker 3: To you as far?
35:37
Speaker 4: I would have to have the odds board in front
35:39
Speaker 4: of me, but there there are a couple guys that I.
35:41
Speaker 3: Take a shot on it, just like popularly, maybe aren't.
35:46
Speaker 4: The longest shot would be probably I don't know what
35:49
Speaker 4: Benjamin Morrison's odds are, but as a mystery box, whatever
35:54
Speaker 4: the odds are, it'd probably be worth like what do
35:56
Speaker 4: you call pizza money bet because we don't know what
35:59
Speaker 4: the reports on the hips were. Right on Benjamin Morrison's hip,
36:03
Speaker 4: that's a guy who would have been an all day
36:04
Speaker 4: first round pick had he not gotten injured. He had
36:06
Speaker 4: the hip injury that is scary, absolutely, But if he
36:10
Speaker 4: gets enough clearance from the medical stats in the NFL,
36:13
Speaker 4: he becomes in play for the first round. So you know,
36:16
Speaker 4: just on that Chevon Ravel would be another guy. The
36:19
Speaker 4: cornerback class drops off pretty quick. But those two injured guys,
36:22
Speaker 4: they're both first round guys. Just depending on what the
36:25
Speaker 4: medical teams have said, those will probably be two long
36:28
Speaker 4: shots for me. I wouldn't do any receivers. I'm actually
36:31
Speaker 4: I like the Juice Todds on the under two and
36:33
Speaker 4: a half receivers in the first round. You're gonna see McMillan,
36:36
Speaker 4: you're gonna see Golden. I think there's there's a lot
36:39
Speaker 4: of scenarios where we're both like Buka and Burden fall
36:44
Speaker 4: to the second round to open that thing up, and
36:47
Speaker 4: I think that think's closer to a coin flip as
36:49
Speaker 4: far as probabilities go than the two to one near
36:52
Speaker 4: two to one is suggesting with that.
36:54
Speaker 3: But yeah, that's that's how I go with that.
36:56
Speaker 2: I'll give people the real quick Chavon three to one
36:59
Speaker 2: Benjamin one, so pretty good odds if you're going to
37:01
Speaker 2: take some long shots on that.
37:03
Speaker 1: Yeah, Yeah, tend to one feels like really good number
37:07
Speaker 1: for jumping in. Based on Thor's evaluation, Simon, I think
37:12
Speaker 1: Thor just came on the favorites and he freaking dominated.
37:16
Speaker 1: He was ready with every comp he was ready to
37:19
Speaker 1: combat my idiotic ideas. He was more thorough than the
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Speaker 1: full wall of helmets that he spent about eighty thousand
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Speaker 1: dollars on that are pegged to his wall right now.
37:34
Speaker 1: Thorn Eistrom Fantasy Life. Matthew Friedman is right. You crush
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Speaker 1: this great job.
37:42
Speaker 3: Appreciate it. Thank you so much, Chad awesome.
37:44
Speaker 1: For doing it. Really fanantastic listen. The Favorites is presented
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