Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / NBA Conference Finals + WNBA Preview

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NBA Conference Finals + WNBA Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorite, the podcast, part of the Action
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: Network and proudly presented by Bett three six five. I
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: am Chad Milman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: I am joined as I am for every episode by
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: my co host, my companion, my campadre, my BFF, professional
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: better Simon Hunter Eto. So I'm in.
• 0:40
  Speaker 2: Hello, hot Chad. How was your weekend, brother, dude?
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: My weekend rot. I dominated on Mother's Day. I was
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: such a good husband, such a good son. My older
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: son came in from out of town from college for college,
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: from college to ten own.
• 1:01
  Speaker 2: Uh.
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: It was great to see him and made my wife
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: really happy. The weather was beautiful. I was near perfection.
• 1:10
  Speaker 2: If I almost, I was gonna say almost as good
• 1:13
  Speaker 2: as me. I was gonna just go right into how
• 1:14
  Speaker 2: I'm just the loser from the Loser Villa Philadelphia. We
• 1:17
  Speaker 2: don't need to get to that. We're about to cover
• 1:19
  Speaker 2: the NBA. Yeah, just a rough weekend for me. The
• 1:22
  Speaker 2: only good highlight for me, Chad, the whole weekend. You know.
• 1:26
  Speaker 2: I'm a little bit of a gaming nerd. A new
• 1:28
  Speaker 2: Zelda came out Tires of the Kingdom, So I've been
• 1:31
  Speaker 2: distracted to myself. I'm trying not to be too depressed,
• 1:34
  Speaker 2: but I'm not gonna lie. You know, it is chad
• 1:36
  Speaker 2: when your team losing the playoffs. It just sucks, especially
• 1:39
  Speaker 2: when people talk shit to you. So as a Sixers fan,
• 1:43
  Speaker 2: I'm embarrassed. But as his lover of Zelda, life is
• 1:46
  Speaker 2: good right now, I am actually in a good place.
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: You know what's interesting? Uh won't we won't harp too
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: much on this because, as you mentioned, the Sixers, Uh,
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: we've got a huge show today. We've got Matt Moore
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: who's just been lighting it up his content on action
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: right now across every level, whether it's the Buckets podcast,
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: whether it's the columns he's writing, his in depth analysis.
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: It's just freaking awesome. He's going to come on. We're
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: going to talk the conference finals. Maria Marino is going
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: to come out. We're going to talk about all that's
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: going on in the WNBA, which, by the way, if
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: you are someone who listens to this podcast and you
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: do not bet the WNBA, then you are wasting a
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: massive opportunity. I've got a great story about WNBA betting,
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: which we will talk about when Maria comes on. Maria,
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: of course, the host of Green Dot Daily, our Daily show.
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: I got a lot of Zelda this weekend because my
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: older son, who you know, is in Philly at Drexel
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: Game Design, focuses on tabletop games and like the kind
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: of experiential games, so Zelda is in his wheelhouse. So
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: we were all excited about that as well, at least
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: as much as I can understand it.
• 3:09
  Speaker 3: Now.
• 3:09
  Speaker 2: If you were a child of the nineties, which I am,
• 3:12
  Speaker 2: it's like, it don't get much bigger. I think this
• 3:14
  Speaker 2: and Pokemon are two of the biggest you know staples,
• 3:17
  Speaker 2: the most ninety kids that played games back in the day.
• 3:19
  Speaker 2: So yeah, someone that's in Hawaii that should be at
• 3:23
  Speaker 2: the beach. I've been indoors for about three days now,
• 3:26
  Speaker 2: just playing video games. Chat.
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: Dude. You know what, every time I forget that there
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: is more to you than the hard bitten professional gambler
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: who could muck it up as if he has to,
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: I remember, you're just a little boy who loves Zelda,
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: who loves Pikachu and playing with his Pokemon cards. It's
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: just so beautiful sign.
• 3:52
  Speaker 2: Not many people have one hundred thousand dollars in a little,
• 3:55
  Speaker 2: I don't know, backpack filled with Pokemon cards, but I
• 3:58
  Speaker 2: am one of those people chats. So yeah, I was
• 4:00
  Speaker 2: luckily one of those kids. I took my cards, I
• 4:02
  Speaker 2: put them in those little protective packages. So pays to
• 4:04
  Speaker 2: be a little bit of an area, all right.
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: Before we get to Matt Marie to talk NBA and
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: w NBA. Couple reminders. Number One, you can follow along
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: live on YouTube. Action Network HQ on no not Action
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: Network HQ on YouTube. Just follow us on Action Network
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: on YouTube, and we're also on AMP. You can send
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: us comments. Matt Mitchell is Tracking the Favorites. Podcast is
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: proudly presented by BET three sixty five, the world's favorite
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: sportsbook brand. Sign up with promo code action to get
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: BET three six fives exclusive sign up offer. Bet one
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: dollar on any game and get two hundred dollars in bonus.
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  Speaker 1: or text one eight hundred Gambler. Also as a reminder,
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: you guys know I love Game Time. I keep talking
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• 6:02
  Speaker 1: Last minute tickets Lois price guaranteed. Here we go, before
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: we get to the Western Conference Finals, before we get
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: to the Eastern Conference Finals. Just before we sat down
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: to record this podcast on Tuesday, Doc Rivers unsurprisingly fired
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: by the Sixers Joel Embiid with a press conference postgame
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: in which he basically throws everybody under the bus. Madame Maria,
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: I want your takes on this. I want Simon to
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: be able to respond as a Sixers fan, because wow,
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: that was a pathetic, pathetic. You had to watch that
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: only because you couldn't believe how bad it was going
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: for the Sixers from the second they scored that three
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: three point basket two minutes into the third quarter. Matt Moore,
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: you first, yeah.
• 6:58
  Speaker 4: I mean, look, you're not surprising the dog got fired.
• 7:00
  Speaker 4: You know, somebody's got to be accountable. It's not gonna
• 7:02
  Speaker 4: be Joel Embiid. So that's not gonna happen. That's not
• 7:05
  Speaker 4: how it goes. Look, that game, though, that series is
• 7:08
  Speaker 4: on Joel Embiid had nel c El's brain. I want
• 7:10
  Speaker 4: to be as understanding as I can be of his
• 7:13
  Speaker 4: injuries that he seems to have every single year. But look,
• 7:16
  Speaker 4: James Harden got them Game one, James Harden got them
• 7:19
  Speaker 4: Game four. Joel embie didn't get them a game in
• 7:22
  Speaker 4: that series. Didn't get them a game. The other guys
• 7:25
  Speaker 4: I thought stepped up in that series gave them a chance.
• 7:28
  Speaker 4: Doc though his history of failure in these elimination games,
• 7:32
  Speaker 4: he was never Daryl Morey's guy. You know, Darryl came
• 7:35
  Speaker 4: in after not surprised they decided to go in another direction.
• 7:38
  Speaker 4: But to me, this is the first domino of probably
• 7:41
  Speaker 4: several this summer for the Sixers, whether they're able to
• 7:44
  Speaker 4: convince James Harden to return and resign, which is going
• 7:47
  Speaker 4: to cost them huge For Guy, it's probably not worth
• 7:49
  Speaker 4: it at this point. And honestly about the future of
• 7:52
  Speaker 4: Joel Embiid, we just don't know where Embiid's head is
• 7:55
  Speaker 4: at after all of these failures. It's going to be
• 7:58
  Speaker 4: I think, a very interesting summer in Philadelphia. It starts
• 8:00
  Speaker 4: with the firing of Doc Rivers, but I don't think
• 8:02
  Speaker 4: it ends there after what was an immense failure. Again,
• 8:05
  Speaker 4: even in a situation where they were underdogs, they lost
• 8:08
  Speaker 4: a series that they should have lost, but the way
• 8:11
  Speaker 4: that they did it was just I think too damaging
• 8:14
  Speaker 4: for the franchise.
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: Maria, you are a hoops head.
• 8:20
  Speaker 3: Yeah, how annoying is Joel Embiid? He has been so annoying.
• 8:24
  Speaker 3: This is not the first time that he has thrown
• 8:27
  Speaker 3: people under the bus. I know all of the flaws
• 8:30
  Speaker 3: that Ben Simmons had, but like after they lost, he
• 8:33
  Speaker 3: was just flat out like just calling him out in
• 8:36
  Speaker 3: the presser, like you don't do that to teammates. Like
• 8:38
  Speaker 3: no wonder he had like severe mental issues after that
• 8:41
  Speaker 3: and then here again he is playing the blame game.
• 8:45
  Speaker 3: You can't win a playoff series when your MVP is
• 8:49
  Speaker 3: not playing like an MVP. Now, Joel Embiid's problem is
• 8:53
  Speaker 3: he is never healthy. He has not been healthy in
• 8:57
  Speaker 3: any of these postseason runs. I mean twenty nineteen, like
• 9:01
  Speaker 3: they had a chance and then like he lost, and
• 9:04
  Speaker 3: then he.
• 9:04
  Speaker 5: Was like oh, like after to the raptors, like that's
• 9:08
  Speaker 5: like what I think of and like, you know, great player.
• 9:12
  Speaker 3: But I'm not surprised at Doc Rivers losing his job
• 9:16
  Speaker 3: just because coaching.
• 9:17
  Speaker 5: Tenures in the NBA are so fragile. But how how
• 9:22
  Speaker 5: is Doc.
• 9:22
  Speaker 3: Rivers supposed to win in the playoffs when Joel Embiid
• 9:26
  Speaker 3: is not healthy? Like how so, yeah, that's my reaction.
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: Well, Simon, look, you're the fan. Uh how do you
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: feel about Maria's takedown of Joel Embiid and Matt's analysis
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: of no I love it, You're spot on? And Matt's
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: thoughts on the idea of keeping James Harden.
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: I hate that part. Get out. I do not want
• 9:51
  Speaker 2: any more James Harden. I would say it's tough because
• 9:54
  Speaker 2: Philly is such a city of like I mean, not
• 9:57
  Speaker 2: the people that go to these games. That's their lives, right,
• 10:00
  Speaker 2: They're like making barely making fifty sixty K a year.
• 10:03
  Speaker 2: They're paying a lot of money for those season tickets.
• 10:05
  Speaker 2: And yeah, man, like it hurts, Like even talking about
• 10:09
  Speaker 2: it hurts. Because Joe Embi to me is a Sixers fan,
• 10:12
  Speaker 2: I honestly could say he probably sure passed Ai for me,
• 10:16
  Speaker 2: Like I loved were the Sixers players like I grew
• 10:19
  Speaker 2: up with. Ai was definitely the best, right he was.
• 10:23
  Speaker 2: He took us all the way to the finals. He
• 10:24
  Speaker 2: took a game from Kobe by himself. Right, our second
• 10:28
  Speaker 2: best player was like Matumbo. We had nobody back then.
• 10:30
  Speaker 2: So Embeid, we've just given the benefit of doubt all
• 10:34
  Speaker 2: these years. He's a loser and he's just mentally weak.
• 10:37
  Speaker 2: So as a Sixers fan, I would love to say, yeah,
• 10:41
  Speaker 2: let's keep Joel. I can't do it, man, Like I'm
• 10:44
  Speaker 2: just I'm over the whole experience. I'm over this whole team.
• 10:47
  Speaker 2: It all starts to the top though, like ownership. I
• 10:50
  Speaker 2: hate our ownership. I hated it from top to bottom,
• 10:52
  Speaker 2: like the whole way they Sam Hinky was forced out
• 10:56
  Speaker 2: by the NBA. It's just been it's been awful. So
• 11:00
  Speaker 2: we talked about Jay. This is the first year, I
• 11:01
  Speaker 2: think in five years, I didn't have a futures on
• 11:03
  Speaker 2: the six years, I just didn't believe in the Harden
• 11:06
  Speaker 2: Embiid combo. There are two guys that historically never produced
• 11:09
  Speaker 2: in the playoffs, right, they always got close. Harden got close.
• 11:13
  Speaker 2: I mean that Houston team, what was it they lost?
• 11:16
  Speaker 2: I think they got the worst to a game seven,
• 11:18
  Speaker 2: and they took forty three pointers and they made like
• 11:21
  Speaker 2: five of them and they lost by like four points.
• 11:23
  Speaker 2: So it's one of those where Hard in his whole career,
• 11:25
  Speaker 2: he's just been kind of choking. I can't defend Embiid anymore,
• 11:29
  Speaker 2: like I want to defend people, all these haters against Embiid,
• 11:32
  Speaker 2: Like he doesn't show up in these big moments. So
• 11:34
  Speaker 2: like all the old guys in Philly sports talk ready
• 11:36
  Speaker 2: to call up. They're like, aw, you're gonna learn to win.
• 11:38
  Speaker 2: If your whole point of reasoning it's tanking. It's like
• 11:41
  Speaker 2: that was the stupidest theory ever. It worked out for them,
• 11:44
  Speaker 2: Like Embiid never learned how to win, apparently because he
• 11:47
  Speaker 2: doesn't win like what is it now he loses in
• 11:50
  Speaker 2: the second round. I think four out of five years,
• 11:52
  Speaker 2: he's just oh, chat, it's bad. So to me, yes,
• 11:56
  Speaker 2: they're probably gonna bring Joell back. I'm cool with blowing
• 11:59
  Speaker 2: it all up up and just putting this team around
• 12:01
  Speaker 2: MAXI like, I love MAXI. He's twenty two years old,
• 12:04
  Speaker 2: he's a shooter, he's fast. Everything about him. I think
• 12:06
  Speaker 2: he just needs a sporting cast around him. So to me,
• 12:09
  Speaker 2: the model should be what Oklahoma City's done right. Oklahoma City, Yes,
• 12:13
  Speaker 2: they've tanked. They're not telling their guys to lose, right,
• 12:16
  Speaker 2: They're going out there every night trying to compete, and
• 12:18
  Speaker 2: their players compete. The Sixers we just have not had that.
• 12:22
  Speaker 2: So as a fan, we're just bitter right now. We're angry.
• 12:25
  Speaker 2: Doc being fired is the first thing I needed done, though,
• 12:27
  Speaker 2: Like Doc Rivers. If Evan Abrams posted one more time
• 12:30
  Speaker 2: Doc Rivers record in Game seven or cloudslog games Chad,
• 12:34
  Speaker 2: I was gonna block him on Twitter. I couldn't take
• 12:35
  Speaker 2: it anymore. It's like every time he was stabbing me.
• 12:38
  Speaker 2: So I'm sad the Sixers lost, but honestly, I had
• 12:41
  Speaker 2: no faith in this team headed into this and I
• 12:43
  Speaker 2: got sucked in when they're up three to two against Boston.
• 12:46
  Speaker 2: I'll ad minute I was sucked in. I was looking ahead,
• 12:49
  Speaker 2: being like, oh my god, all we have to do
• 12:50
  Speaker 2: is beat the heat. That's what sucked is I started believing.
• 12:52
  Speaker 2: So I would say most Sixers fans are like meat today.
• 12:55
  Speaker 2: They're just super bitter about everything. And anyone calling us Loserville,
• 12:59
  Speaker 2: we deserve it. When we lost the World Series, we
• 13:02
  Speaker 2: lost the Super Bowl, and now a team that was
• 13:05
  Speaker 2: all hyped up lost in the second round of the
• 13:07
  Speaker 2: NBA Playoffs. So probably one of the worst years as
• 13:11
  Speaker 2: a fan of a city this past season as a
• 13:13
  Speaker 2: Philadelphia sports fan.
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: All right, let me Evan Ingrams, of course, who runs
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: research for us here at Action. He digs in and
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: he works a lot with bet Labs, which is one
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: of the research tools we have. Here's a tweet that
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: was sent out today by bettla at bet Underscore Labs,
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: one of our Twitter handles. Doc Rivers is actually the
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: most profitableok coach on the money line in the playoffs
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: since two thousand and five. A one hundred dollars better
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: would be up two thousand, five hundred and eight dollars.
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: That is more profitable than Rick Carlisle at two thousand
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: and one hundred and looks like eighty and Eric's Bolstra
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: at twenty eight. All right, we're moving on, like case
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: Simon went from. You know, I love Zelda and I've
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: got retirement savings and Pokemon too. I hate Joel Embiid.
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: He's mentally weak and he's a loser. And the fact
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: that Simon can run the gamut of these emotions and
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: have all these things inside of him is what makes
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: them so beautiful to me. But we got to talk
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: Lakers Nuggets because it's happening tonight. Then we got to
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: talk about Celtics heat, and we got to talk about
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: WNBA because they got freaking super teams in there, and
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: the betting and WNBA is choice. Let's start with Lakers Nuggets,
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: first game on the docket. Matt Moore, you are a
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: Colorado native, you know this Nuggets team. Well, it is
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: a nightmare scenario for the Nuggets to get to the finals.
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: We all, anyone in media right now has become a
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: massive Lebron fan. Does Lebron get to the finals?
• 15:07
  Speaker 6: No?
• 15:09
  Speaker 2: No, fuck you, Matt.
• 15:12
  Speaker 4: Sorry that NBA is gonna have deal with some worst
• 15:15
  Speaker 4: ratings here because look, this is the series is fascinating
• 15:19
  Speaker 4: because it really is.
• 15:21
  Speaker 6: Do you bet narrative.
• 15:23
  Speaker 4: Which has determined so much of NBA history, or do
• 15:26
  Speaker 4: you bet the basketball because the basketball says the Nuggets
• 15:29
  Speaker 4: are better. The Nuggets are better top to bottom. They've
• 15:31
  Speaker 4: been better all season, like this run that the Lakers
• 15:33
  Speaker 4: are on. Yeah, but what Matt, what about the Lakers?
• 15:35
  Speaker 4: They went through the Warriors secret The Warriors weren't that
• 15:39
  Speaker 4: good this year. The reason they went seven games with
• 15:42
  Speaker 4: the Kings. The Kings if you look at everything from
• 15:46
  Speaker 4: half court offense to how they shoot, their number of
• 15:50
  Speaker 4: players that they can viably play in this series.
• 15:52
  Speaker 6: Who's the best player in this series? If you believe it's.
• 15:54
  Speaker 4: Anthony Davis, you should betting him to be Western Conference
• 15:56
  Speaker 4: Finals MVP.
• 15:57
  Speaker 6: That New Market is choice.
• 15:58
  Speaker 4: By the way, you believe the Lakers are going to
• 16:01
  Speaker 4: win the series, you need to bet game one and
• 16:03
  Speaker 4: for them to win the series.
• 16:04
  Speaker 6: That combo.
• 16:05
  Speaker 4: You can get some books three and a half to one.
• 16:08
  Speaker 4: That's another good one because they need to steal home court.
• 16:10
  Speaker 4: This Nuggets team is elite at home. They've been dominant
• 16:13
  Speaker 4: all year at home, and it's not because of the altitude.
• 16:16
  Speaker 4: Like there's always been this kind of talking point amongst
• 16:20
  Speaker 4: the gambling community of look Utah and Denver. Their home
• 16:23
  Speaker 4: court goes down in the playoffs because teams get to acclimate.
• 16:26
  Speaker 4: Denver doesn't play all that fast. That's not how they play.
• 16:29
  Speaker 4: They've been dominant at home. Because they've been a dominant
• 16:31
  Speaker 4: home team, they do draw something from this crowd. We'll
• 16:33
  Speaker 4: see what that looks like tonight, because there's a lot
• 16:36
  Speaker 4: of la people that live in Denver, a lot of
• 16:38
  Speaker 4: transplants there.
• 16:39
  Speaker 6: But look, Denver's better.
• 16:40
  Speaker 4: They have the better player, they have a deeper roster
• 16:44
  Speaker 4: in terms of if we go through who's the best
• 16:46
  Speaker 4: player in this series. Jokic, who's the second best player
• 16:48
  Speaker 4: in the series, probably Davis, who's the third best, it's Lebron.
• 16:53
  Speaker 4: All of the rest are gonna be nuggets until we
• 16:55
  Speaker 4: get to like Austin Reeves at maybe five or six.
• 16:57
  Speaker 4: So I can't I thought about the series. I don't
• 17:01
  Speaker 4: enjoy betting against the narrative here. But I also was like,
• 17:05
  Speaker 4: can I justify betting against Denver when I think that
• 17:09
  Speaker 4: they're the better team, have the advantages, have the matchup advantages,
• 17:13
  Speaker 4: and should win. No, So I'll take Nuggets here mins
• 17:16
  Speaker 4: one and a half on a series pray gets you
• 17:17
  Speaker 4: plus one thirty at best three sixty five. You can
• 17:20
  Speaker 4: find it other books at higher numbers. That's the best
• 17:23
  Speaker 4: value on the board is Nuggets to win this in
• 17:25
  Speaker 4: six or less. That has to be the best value
• 17:28
  Speaker 4: here based off of what I see from the series
• 17:30
  Speaker 4: from a basketball perspective.
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: All right, so you're basically saying you like the Nuggets
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: in six or less. Maria, give me your thoughts on
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: this series right now.
• 17:46
  Speaker 3: This is a tough one because I too, am battling
• 17:48
  Speaker 3: with the narrative. I do think that the Nuggets are
• 17:52
  Speaker 3: the better team, and mainly that's because Nikola Jokic is
• 17:56
  Speaker 3: of all of the best players, like he is the
• 17:59
  Speaker 3: most consistent, He's far more consistent than Anthony Davis. But Lebron,
• 18:04
  Speaker 3: even though he's not maybe peak Lebron, like, he still
• 18:09
  Speaker 3: has that other gear and is that like goat Gene,
• 18:12
  Speaker 3: gonna just come out and have him like fill in
• 18:16
  Speaker 3: gaps throughout this series and you know, help him get
• 18:19
  Speaker 3: to another finals. He's ten to one in conference finals,
• 18:23
  Speaker 3: Like that's crazy. But at the same time, you know,
• 18:27
  Speaker 3: the Nuggets are sort of at that point where they've
• 18:30
  Speaker 3: built the right way. They have Yoki, She's a two
• 18:32
  Speaker 3: time MVP. It's like it's almost like it's their turn,
• 18:35
  Speaker 3: like it's their turn to shift history and to win
• 18:39
  Speaker 3: in advance to the finals for Game one. I do
• 18:42
  Speaker 3: like the Nuggets for this series, though, I wonder about like,
• 18:46
  Speaker 3: if Okay, Lakers lose Game one, do I bet Lakers
• 18:49
  Speaker 3: get you know, get a better price on it. So
• 18:52
  Speaker 3: it's kind of what I'm what I'm toying with right now.
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: Well, I think that's gonna be the consensus, right Simon,
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: we see this all the time. You might get a
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: little bit of a better number. And Match just mentioned
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: this as well, if you are willing to play the
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: favorite after they lose Game one, which I kind of
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: feel like is a very good possibility. This is where
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: the Lakers come out and give their best shot. Six
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: point underdogs at bet three sixty five right now.
• 19:22
  Speaker 2: Yeah, My favorite thing about the Lakers is if they
• 19:24
  Speaker 2: win it all, they'll be the biggest loser the sports
• 19:26
  Speaker 2: books in over ten years, So people forget the Lakers.
• 19:29
  Speaker 2: A lot of books were huge odds at one point.
• 19:31
  Speaker 2: A lot of books had them at twenty five to
• 19:33
  Speaker 2: one thirty to one when they got way up there.
• 19:35
  Speaker 2: What was that mid December and they were struggling or
• 19:37
  Speaker 2: maybe it was January. So to me, Chad, I love
• 19:40
  Speaker 2: the Nuggets. I think it's really fun and exciting. They're
• 19:42
  Speaker 2: a good team. Everything they do is amazing. It's Lebron
• 19:46
  Speaker 2: James in the playoffs, right, Like we've seen it time
• 19:48
  Speaker 2: and time again. It's like that Michael Jordan effect of
• 19:50
  Speaker 2: every guy around them plays better. Everyone rises to the occasion.
• 19:54
  Speaker 2: Maybe not Jr. Smith. That was the most boneuted thing
• 19:56
  Speaker 2: we've ever seen him not knowing that the game was
• 19:59
  Speaker 2: tied back in the day, but horrible. Yeah. Other than that, though,
• 20:03
  Speaker 2: across Lebron's career, it's just all these guys step up, right,
• 20:06
  Speaker 2: We've just seen it time and time again. So the
• 20:09
  Speaker 2: fact that he's so close and at his age and
• 20:11
  Speaker 2: he knows this is it right if he gets this
• 20:13
  Speaker 2: number six. I mean, for the rest of our lives,
• 20:16
  Speaker 2: it's always going to be at the Jordan Lebron conversation.
• 20:18
  Speaker 2: The old heads will always take the Jordan. The young
• 20:21
  Speaker 2: guys like us, we'll always back Lebron because Lebron did
• 20:24
  Speaker 2: it on multiple different teams against different you know, different
• 20:27
  Speaker 2: time zones, different teams, different years. I mean, holy hell,
• 20:30
  Speaker 2: twenty years later, we're still talking Lebron, no joke. I
• 20:34
  Speaker 2: was watching Entourage the other day. They had Lebron on there,
• 20:36
  Speaker 2: and it's just crazy to think this dude was around
• 20:39
  Speaker 2: when fliplanes are around, like literally flip phones, and now
• 20:42
  Speaker 2: he's still doing it in twenty twenty three. So for
• 20:44
  Speaker 2: me as a better I want to take the Nuggets.
• 20:47
  Speaker 2: It's just how am I going to against Lebron? Like
• 20:49
  Speaker 2: Lebron when everyone gets tight, that's when Lebron really shines.
• 20:52
  Speaker 2: So everything Matt just said so true, Amria that, like,
• 20:55
  Speaker 2: you know they're not shooting will the Lakers? They've played
• 20:57
  Speaker 2: crab teams? How sure are we? How good are the
• 21:00
  Speaker 2: Nuggets really though? That's my whole question is I don't
• 21:03
  Speaker 2: know how good the Nuggets really are. I just think
• 21:05
  Speaker 2: the West all year has kind of been down right.
• 21:07
  Speaker 2: I think even pro has talked about it, Like a
• 21:09
  Speaker 2: lot of betting pros said the West is weak. That's
• 21:11
  Speaker 2: why guys were betting the Kings. Again, that was a
• 21:14
  Speaker 2: dumb bet. I admit it. That was a waste of
• 21:16
  Speaker 2: money betting the Kings. But I saw the path. So
• 21:19
  Speaker 2: it's just interesting we're now hearing both them talk about it.
• 21:22
  Speaker 2: This line feels really close right, this serious price. If
• 21:25
  Speaker 2: it wasn't Lebron, I think the Nuggets would be what
• 21:27
  Speaker 2: minus two hundred on the series price. So you can
• 21:30
  Speaker 2: already see the books are building in a Lebron effect.
• 21:32
  Speaker 2: I think most betters know that that. It's just this
• 21:35
  Speaker 2: is what the guy does. When you leave Lebron for dead,
• 21:38
  Speaker 2: he always comes back. So to me, again, the East
• 21:41
  Speaker 2: is exciting. The West is just so exciting. This games.
• 21:44
  Speaker 2: They're gonna be incredible just because you know, Djokitch might
• 21:47
  Speaker 2: be the best center we've ever seen play basketball, but
• 21:49
  Speaker 2: he has nothing but these MVPs, like he needs this
• 21:52
  Speaker 2: title and this is good. It's gonna get for him. Right.
• 21:54
  Speaker 2: He's playing a Lakers team that, yes, ad is incredible,
• 21:58
  Speaker 2: but they have plenty of weaknesses so to me, out
• 22:01
  Speaker 2: of the East and the West, so this is the
• 22:02
  Speaker 2: most exciting series to me, this West series. Hey, this is.
• 22:06
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• 23:31
  Speaker 1: Yeah, look, Matt, you talk about this all the time.
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: The NBA is a narrative league, and that is how
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: you win MVPs. We saw it this year with Embiid.
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: Jokich easily could have won the MVP. May have had
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: a better season this year than in his other two
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: MVP seasons, but the narrative was for Embiid. While the
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: narrative doesn't determine who's going to win this Lakers Nugget series,
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: the narrative is certainly fun for the Nuggets, and it
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: makes you want to root for the Nuggets so he
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: can get that capstone in his career.
• 24:09
  Speaker 6: I mean a little bit.
• 24:10
  Speaker 4: I think you know, it's finishing the conversation about Yokis
• 24:13
  Speaker 4: because it was. It was really funny when it was like, well,
• 24:15
  Speaker 4: you can't vote for Jokis. She hasn't done anything in
• 24:17
  Speaker 4: the playoffs. We should vote Joelle.
• 24:19
  Speaker 6: And be wait, I'm sorry what?
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: Yeah?
• 24:20
  Speaker 6: Right, And now we see how that worked out.
• 24:22
  Speaker 4: This is, by the way, Yoki's second consecutive Conference finals
• 24:25
  Speaker 4: appearance when Jamal mur Murray's healthy.
• 24:28
  Speaker 6: I would say that.
• 24:29
  Speaker 4: The other thing here is is, look, so last year
• 24:31
  Speaker 4: I came on the program and I was like, we
• 24:32
  Speaker 4: got about the Celtics, we got a bet the Sellies
• 24:34
  Speaker 4: versus the Warriors, and Simon.
• 24:35
  Speaker 6: Was like, are you out your mind?
• 24:36
  Speaker 4: And he was absolutely right, Like that's agin the question
• 24:40
  Speaker 4: here though, So, like you know, Marie mentioned Lebron's dominance
• 24:43
  Speaker 4: in the conference finals. The Warriors were undefeated in the
• 24:47
  Speaker 4: Western Conference playoffs and they're out. Why because father time
• 24:52
  Speaker 4: comes for everybody. I've watched Lebron James from I was
• 24:55
  Speaker 4: watching his high school games when I was in my
• 24:58
  Speaker 4: senior year of college at the I would go to
• 25:01
  Speaker 4: the gym and get on the treadmill and just watch
• 25:03
  Speaker 4: his high school games. I've watched the entire path. This
• 25:07
  Speaker 4: is not that Lebron James. He can be that for
• 25:09
  Speaker 4: a game. He will be that for a game. He'll
• 25:11
  Speaker 4: be that for two games. I don't think he can
• 25:14
  Speaker 4: be it for four. If you want to bet the
• 25:16
  Speaker 4: Lakers in this series, you have to bet that Anthony
• 25:18
  Speaker 4: Davis is gonna better than Nicole Jokic. Like you have
• 25:21
  Speaker 4: to because Davis is gonna have to slow him down
• 25:24
  Speaker 4: and he's gonna have to score. Both of those things
• 25:26
  Speaker 4: are gonna have to happen. If the Lakers are gonna win.
• 25:28
  Speaker 4: This has to be Lebron and Clutch Management manufacture the
• 25:32
  Speaker 4: trade for Anthony Davis out of New Orleans to help Lebron,
• 25:36
  Speaker 4: And for four seasons, Lebron has been waiting for him
• 25:40
  Speaker 4: to take the mantle so Lebron can take a rest
• 25:43
  Speaker 4: so the man doesn't.
• 25:44
  Speaker 6: Have to do everything.
• 25:45
  Speaker 4: And Davis has never stepped up until this year when
• 25:49
  Speaker 4: he's been healthy. So you're gonna have to bet that
• 25:52
  Speaker 4: Davis is gonna be healthy and he's gonna be the
• 25:54
  Speaker 4: best player. If you're betting this purely on Lebron, that's
• 25:57
  Speaker 4: where I have to be like guys like I've seen
• 25:59
  Speaker 4: him at that guy. He again, he'll have stretches. He's
• 26:03
  Speaker 4: not that guy. We're not just like, well, he might
• 26:05
  Speaker 4: not be peak Lebron. No, not peak Lebron was twenty eighteen.
• 26:09
  Speaker 4: We are five years past, not peak Lebron. That's where
• 26:12
  Speaker 4: we're at right now with this series.
• 26:14
  Speaker 3: But can I just say I don't think he needs
• 26:16
  Speaker 3: to necessarily be peak Lebron, only in those key moments
• 26:20
  Speaker 3: when you need him to be, because I think this
• 26:22
  Speaker 3: Lakers team is a lot deeper than we realize. Like
• 26:25
  Speaker 3: what they did at the trade deadline is so wild,
• 26:28
  Speaker 3: Like you have these role players, like I think D'Angel
• 26:31
  Speaker 3: Russell fits so well with them, and like you see
• 26:34
  Speaker 3: Hachi Murra I win them games and Walker and Reeves
• 26:37
  Speaker 3: and like, I don't know, I don't think that you
• 26:40
  Speaker 3: need You don't need him to beat Peak Lebron all
• 26:43
  Speaker 3: the time. And then also, like the point that you
• 26:45
  Speaker 3: made about the Warriors, I totally agree with you, father,
• 26:48
  Speaker 3: time comes with ever, you know, for everybody. But the
• 26:51
  Speaker 3: reason that the Warriors are so tired this year is
• 26:53
  Speaker 3: because they just won last year. Like when after you
• 26:57
  Speaker 3: win and go all the way to the finals, it's
• 26:59
  Speaker 3: really really hard to win again just because you're tired.
• 27:02
  Speaker 3: Like I don't think Clay is the same person or
• 27:04
  Speaker 3: you know, player, I don't think Draymond is the same player.
• 27:07
  Speaker 3: But like it's because part of it is because they
• 27:10
  Speaker 3: won just last year.
• 27:12
  Speaker 5: Does that make sense?
• 27:13
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'd say we all know what happened to Warriors though,
• 27:16
  Speaker 2: that Draymond Green punched a pool in the face that
• 27:19
  Speaker 2: that ain'ted their whole chance to make a run, right,
• 27:21
  Speaker 2: I mean it's.
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: One of those well look but Simon, there is that,
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: But there's also the fact that you look at Pool
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: didn't really advance as far as a player. He kind
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: of regressed this year.
• 27:35
  Speaker 2: Yeah, watch the finals from last year. Don't know, it's
• 27:38
  Speaker 2: the same player.
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: Kaminga never got into the rotation. True, Moody never became
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: a player. Wiseman has been traded. So the team that
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: they thought they were building and developing with a couple
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: to three years left of Draymond, Clay and Steph hasn't
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: really worked. And so that's the biggest problem for the
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: Warriors is like these guys who they expected to be
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: great haven't been great.
• 28:05
  Speaker 3: It's like, you want my statement, I would just I
• 28:11
  Speaker 3: would just say that while I think the Lakers are
• 28:14
  Speaker 3: deeper than they've been given credit for, I still think
• 28:17
  Speaker 3: the Nuggets are the overall deeper team Nuggets.
• 28:21
  Speaker 2: You guys are both on the Nuggets, then, clearcut, you
• 28:23
  Speaker 2: both think the Nuggets.
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: When here's what I was going to say. We're summarizing here,
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: Maria and Matt both on the Nuggets. Matt definitively on
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: the Nuggets at minus one and a half, which is
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: basically saying.
• 28:34
  Speaker 5: He likes to wavering and Maria is.
• 28:37
  Speaker 1: Wavering at the one and a half. But Matt is
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: officially in the Nuggets minus one and a half camp.
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: He's against narrative for the media and he's against anybody
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: being interested in what happens once the Lakers are out
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: of the playoffs, all right, Conference Finals, Celtics in the Heat.
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: Third time in four years Celtis went to the finals.
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: Once Heat went to the final. Once the Spolstra Eric
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: Spolstra legend continues to grow. And look this guy, he
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: gets this job. Everyone thinks he's sort of in there
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: and pat Riley is pulling the strings and he's a
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: Riley puppet. Then he gets Lebron and d Wade and
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: Chris Bosh. I tend to believe he handled that beautifully,
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: and it was not an easy situation. It was Phil
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: Jackson asking the way he handled talent. Not easy to
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: win a title with those players, even if everyone thinks
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: you're supposed to win the title. I feel like he
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: has proved in the last decade he's one of the
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: best coaches in NBA history. If any team as an
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: eight seed can beat up on a Celtics team that
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: is so inconsistent and I think is streaky and also
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: emotional and still figuring out who they are and how
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: to play. It's Derek Spolstra, Maria agree or disagree.
• 29:58
  Speaker 3: Definitely agree, And I don't even care that my emotions
• 30:03
  Speaker 3: are in this one.
• 30:04
  Speaker 5: I just adore Jimmy Butler. I'm obsessed with him. He
• 30:07
  Speaker 5: is so fun to watch.
• 30:09
  Speaker 3: Like I think Spolstra is a mastermind, and I think
• 30:14
  Speaker 3: the Celtics are the better team on paper, but there's
• 30:17
  Speaker 3: something about the mystique and there's something about understanding that
• 30:23
  Speaker 3: there is a coaching disadvantage for the Celtics, and like
• 30:27
  Speaker 3: the Heat have a chance and they've been very good,
• 30:31
  Speaker 3: you know against the spread, six and two this postseason,
• 30:35
  Speaker 3: five and three straight up as underdogs in these playoffs.
• 30:40
  Speaker 3: I know the Celtics are a different animal than you know,
• 30:44
  Speaker 3: the Bucks without a one, Giannis and the Knicks.
• 30:48
  Speaker 5: But I'm just gonna have a little.
• 30:50
  Speaker 3: Fun here, Like this should be fun, and I just
• 30:55
  Speaker 3: I want to bet the Heat and I want to
• 30:56
  Speaker 3: rook for the Heat. I'm not gonna put a lot
• 30:58
  Speaker 3: of money on it, but that's what I want to
• 31:00
  Speaker 3: see happen.
• 31:01
  Speaker 5: And I think I'm gonna probably.
• 31:05
  Speaker 3: Take a similar approach where I just don't see the
• 31:07
  Speaker 3: Celtics losing Game one again, Like if they don't. If
• 31:11
  Speaker 3: they didn't learn from the Game one loss to Philly
• 31:14
  Speaker 3: in the last series, then that would be insane.
• 31:17
  Speaker 5: So like, I don't think they're gonna win.
• 31:18
  Speaker 3: I'm sorry, I don't think they're gonna lose Game one,
• 31:20
  Speaker 3: and therefore I'll probably bet the Heat after.
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: That, uh Ria making emotional bets, which is totally fine.
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: I'm look, I desperately want the Heat to win this
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: just because I love this team. I love the culture,
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: I love the grit and grind. I think they're awesome.
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: Matt Moore is here to uh burst our balloon our.
• 31:50
  Speaker 5: Well.
• 31:51
  Speaker 4: First off, I'll say, Chad, if you're we're gonna do
• 31:53
  Speaker 4: the you want the best thing for the media, then
• 31:55
  Speaker 4: you want Laker Celtics.
• 31:56
  Speaker 6: My man, that's what you want, because.
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: I know, but I'm not going to get it, so
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: You've already be taken that from me. I'm just gonna
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: go for whatever I love.
• 32:02
  Speaker 6: For Maria if you want to bet that way.
• 32:04
  Speaker 4: Jimmy Butler three six five plus four to fifty Eastern
• 32:08
  Speaker 4: Conference Finals MVP if the Heat win the series. Is
• 32:11
  Speaker 4: there any scenario in which the Heat win the series
• 32:13
  Speaker 4: and Jimmy's not MVP?
• 32:14
  Speaker 6: No, there's not.
• 32:16
  Speaker 4: I actually hit My best bet for the series is
• 32:17
  Speaker 4: Heat plus two and a half. He get minus one
• 32:19
  Speaker 4: forty at the three six five, because the Celtics are
• 32:23
  Speaker 4: gonna screw around twice. That's what they're gonna do. They
• 32:25
  Speaker 4: screw around twice. Every series. They screwed around three times.
• 32:28
  Speaker 4: Last series, they screwed around twice versus the Hawks. Do
• 32:31
  Speaker 4: we think the Hawks take more games off of the
• 32:35
  Speaker 4: Celtics than the Heat do? No?
• 32:36
  Speaker 6: Come on?
• 32:37
  Speaker 4: So I like plus two and a half here. I
• 32:40
  Speaker 4: actually disagree with Maria because I absolutely think that the
• 32:43
  Speaker 4: Heat are gonna win Game one. Team's coming off of
• 32:45
  Speaker 4: a game seven win teams coming off of a Game
• 32:49
  Speaker 4: seven in the next round at home just eleven and
• 32:52
  Speaker 4: thirteen straight up in the overall numbers when they're not
• 32:54
  Speaker 4: including the away games much worse, and they tend to
• 32:57
  Speaker 4: lose those series, by the way. But I don't think
• 32:59
  Speaker 4: the Celtics lose this series. I like Heat plus two
• 33:01
  Speaker 4: and a half. I actually think Heat go up to one.
• 33:04
  Speaker 4: That's what I'm hoping for. If I'm right on that path,
• 33:07
  Speaker 4: We're gonna get a great price on Celtics to win
• 33:09
  Speaker 4: the series, and we'll come back on that because this
• 33:12
  Speaker 4: Heat team is adorable. They are so adorable, like, look
• 33:16
  Speaker 4: at you. You shot sixty percent or better EFG versus
• 33:19
  Speaker 4: the Bucks without Yannis, and then you faced a fraudulent
• 33:22
  Speaker 4: Knicks team that should have lost the Cavs if JB.
• 33:24
  Speaker 4: Bickerstaff could coach his way out of a box golf
• 33:27
  Speaker 4: clapp for you. They're not an actual contender. They were
• 33:30
  Speaker 4: in an actual contenter all year.
• 33:32
  Speaker 6: They don't have the depth.
• 33:33
  Speaker 4: They lost Victor Oladipo, Jimmy's got a bad ankle. They're
• 33:36
  Speaker 4: not winning the series. They are going to take two
• 33:38
  Speaker 4: games off the Celtics because the Celtics screw around. So
• 33:41
  Speaker 4: let's take Celtics. Let's say Heat plus two and a
• 33:43
  Speaker 4: half and then come back on Celtics once they go
• 33:45
  Speaker 4: down the series to once again worm their way out
• 33:48
  Speaker 4: of the series and make the finals.
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: Well, look, it has to be as a Sixers fan,
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: simon infuriating to watch the Celtics because they are a
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: team that can go from blowing it and not looking
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: like they belong anywhere close to the Eastern Conference semi
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: finals or finals, to a team that has top five talent,
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: you know, across the board in multiple positions, So that's tough.
• 34:23
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's It's as interesting though, like I think the
• 34:25
  Speaker 2: Celtics at one point were minus four fifty or minus
• 34:28
  Speaker 2: five hundred against the Sixers and that series price, and
• 34:31
  Speaker 2: now they're the same exact price against this Heat team.
• 34:34
  Speaker 2: It's just it's interesting. The book maker is really not
• 34:37
  Speaker 2: that they overvalue the Celtics, but it feels that way
• 34:40
  Speaker 2: like that that series went to seven with the Sixers.
• 34:42
  Speaker 2: And one of the stupidest things I've seen online so
• 34:44
  Speaker 2: far was ESPN their analytics department put out a stat
• 34:47
  Speaker 2: that they gave the Sixers a ninety seven percent chance,
• 34:50
  Speaker 2: the Celtics a ninety seven percent chance to beat the Heat,
• 34:53
  Speaker 2: so they gave the Heat a three percent chance of
• 34:55
  Speaker 2: winning this series. I wish they owned a sports book. ESPN,
• 34:58
  Speaker 2: please give me thirty to one on the Heat just
• 35:00
  Speaker 2: to win this the dumbest thing I've seen so to me,
• 35:04
  Speaker 2: Jimmy is what we love about basketball. Right. You can
• 35:07
  Speaker 2: have a team, but if you have a guy like
• 35:09
  Speaker 2: Jimmy Butler, it's the same thing as Lebron James you
• 35:11
  Speaker 2: talked about. It's that winning the guys around you, right,
• 35:13
  Speaker 2: it's getting them to believe the heat of lost players. Right,
• 35:16
  Speaker 2: They've had their own injuries throughout these playoffs, but here
• 35:19
  Speaker 2: they are. They keep moving on. And it's the same
• 35:21
  Speaker 2: thing with the Celtics. They just they feel a little
• 35:24
  Speaker 2: bit like the Sixers team. They feel like they're a
• 35:25
  Speaker 2: little bit mentally weak, right, and if anyone in the
• 35:28
  Speaker 2: sixties could have stepped up, especially that Game six. I mean,
• 35:31
  Speaker 2: I don't think Tatum hit a shot until that fourth
• 35:33
  Speaker 2: quarter of that Game six. Like that game was there
• 35:35
  Speaker 2: for the Sixers. Jimmy Butler's not gonna let those kind
• 35:38
  Speaker 2: of games get away. So I've seen the pictures of
• 35:40
  Speaker 2: Jimmy's ankle. That's probably my biggest hesitation is this guy's
• 35:43
  Speaker 2: ankle is literally a basketball. It is so blown up.
• 35:46
  Speaker 2: I mean, you've seen him walk in the stadium just
• 35:48
  Speaker 2: last couple of games. He has that a little bit
• 35:50
  Speaker 2: of a limp where they're like, oh, that's a swag limp.
• 35:52
  Speaker 2: And then you've seen him without a socler You're like, no,
• 35:54
  Speaker 2: that's a guy. They're probably a broken ankle. So to me,
• 35:57
  Speaker 2: the Celtics they are kind of getting the gift here,
• 35:59
  Speaker 2: But I like, what not the series price? I think
• 36:04
  Speaker 2: that's that's that is a bit much like, as much
• 36:07
  Speaker 2: as I love to take them Heat, the Heat at
• 36:08
  Speaker 2: plus three hundred plus four hundred to win the series,
• 36:11
  Speaker 2: you know that's a bit rich to me. So yeah,
• 36:14
  Speaker 2: plus two and a half for the series price, that's
• 36:16
  Speaker 2: a really good price. I mean, minus one forty, that's
• 36:18
  Speaker 2: that's a nice number. So to me, that feels like
• 36:21
  Speaker 2: that's the smart bet right now for this series, taking
• 36:23
  Speaker 2: the Heat plus two and a half. I just I
• 36:25
  Speaker 2: can easily see this going six because we've seen a
• 36:27
  Speaker 2: Timeta against Celtic at home, they just don't play well.
• 36:30
  Speaker 2: They're better on their road for some reason, they play
• 36:32
  Speaker 2: at home in these playoff games and they just let down,
• 36:34
  Speaker 2: they let teams back in. And we've seen the Heat
• 36:36
  Speaker 2: go on the road in multiple series now win games.
• 36:38
  Speaker 2: So plus two and a half I'll take that bet.
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: Matt. I feel like you're discounting the quality of the
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: coaching for the Heat when you say, oh, isn't acute
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: in a very rude way about how they beat Yannis
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: list Bucks team and they beat a heartless Knicks team, Uh,
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: which to me, they beat the Knicks because they're better coached,
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: and that to me is the magic of the heat
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: is that they're the the sun is so much better
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: than the parts for them, right, and you're not being
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: very respectful of that.
• 37:28
  Speaker 4: Well, I think look, with Greg Popovich having moved to
• 37:30
  Speaker 4: like a rebuilding phase in his career, suppose the best
• 37:32
  Speaker 4: coach in the league people were talking about like Tylou
• 37:35
  Speaker 4: and Nick Nurse, get out of here. Those guys are
• 37:37
  Speaker 4: not in sposed class. Come on, like, it's spo. It's
• 37:41
  Speaker 4: definitely SPO and Spoe versus as the action Slack started
• 37:46
  Speaker 4: calling him Joe Mozzarella, as that matchup is absolutely massive.
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: That is a massive It's not even it's not even
• 37:53
  Speaker 1: a conversation.
• 37:54
  Speaker 4: Yeah, it's But how many points a game do.
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: You think coaching is worth in the NBA? In this
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: scenario in the Eastern Conference finals?
• 38:03
  Speaker 4: The smart people tell me that the big key here
• 38:04
  Speaker 4: is that good coaching gives you a small edge, great
• 38:08
  Speaker 4: coaching gives you a substantial edge, and bad coaching gives
• 38:11
  Speaker 4: you a massive deficit disadvantage. And from that, like that's
• 38:14
  Speaker 4: probably worth I don't know, I would say, like, honestly,
• 38:17
  Speaker 4: it's probably worth two points in the series just based
• 38:19
  Speaker 4: off of that because of how good they are, Like
• 38:21
  Speaker 4: we're gonna talk about some of these players and how
• 38:23
  Speaker 4: they're evaluated on the spread. I think you got to
• 38:25
  Speaker 4: figure the difference between those because I don't think Mass
• 38:27
  Speaker 4: is that good, like a lot of people don't, so
• 38:30
  Speaker 4: that gap has to be significant. It's you know, what
• 38:33
  Speaker 4: Spoe gives you plus what Mass takes away at the
• 38:36
  Speaker 4: same time like that, Like I said, I think the
• 38:39
  Speaker 4: heater gonna make this a series.
• 38:40
  Speaker 6: I think it's gonna be competitive.
• 38:41
  Speaker 4: But for all the talk about like this is what
• 38:43
  Speaker 4: Jimmy Butler does, he wins except last year when they
• 38:47
  Speaker 4: face the same Celtics team and he lost, Like, come.
• 38:50
  Speaker 5: On that they should have won that game. They got
• 38:52
  Speaker 5: absolutely hosed.
• 38:53
  Speaker 6: But they definitely but they didn't.
• 38:56
  Speaker 4: This is a worse Celtics team. It's also a worst
• 38:58
  Speaker 4: Heat team like it.
• 39:00
  Speaker 5: I agree with that. I agree with that.
• 39:02
  Speaker 3: But they easily easily, Like yeah, I get it, they lost.
• 39:05
  Speaker 5: They easily could have been in the finals last year, like.
• 39:09
  Speaker 4: The conference finals once out of the last four years,
• 39:11
  Speaker 4: but he hasn't.
• 39:13
  Speaker 5: It's not the same.
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: I want to I want us to get to the
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: w NBA. But I have one more question for you, Matt,
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: which is when you watch a ton of film on this.
• 39:25
  Speaker 1: What makes Posts so good as a coach.
• 39:28
  Speaker 4: So a lot of it is that he doesn't approach
• 39:32
  Speaker 4: things from a very as linear as some guys do.
• 39:34
  Speaker 4: What I mean by that is, Okay, this is a weakness.
• 39:37
  Speaker 4: Let's attack this weakness over and over and over again.
• 39:40
  Speaker 4: You do that enough times and you can make a
• 39:41
  Speaker 4: team adjust. But if you attack them in different ways,
• 39:44
  Speaker 4: you will present such an overall problem for them that
• 39:47
  Speaker 4: it winds up causing like, well, we can't just do
• 39:50
  Speaker 4: this one thing. We can't fix this one problem and
• 39:52
  Speaker 4: adjust it were if we do that, Supoe's going to
• 39:55
  Speaker 4: hit us with these other things He's already shown us.
• 39:58
  Speaker 4: He throws zone out there, he throw Their coverages are
• 40:01
  Speaker 4: so diverse. Defensively, they will hit you with zone, they'll
• 40:04
  Speaker 4: hit you with switches, they'll hit you with drop, they
• 40:07
  Speaker 4: will play to what their understanding of personnel. The detail
• 40:10
  Speaker 4: that he brings in all those is absolutely massive. Offensively,
• 40:14
  Speaker 4: a lot of it is like look, a lot of
• 40:15
  Speaker 4: it is honestly just like, let's give Jimmy the ball
• 40:17
  Speaker 4: and let him go to work. But offensively, the other
• 40:18
  Speaker 4: thing is he is able to tailor whatever it is
• 40:21
  Speaker 4: that they need to the opponent's weaknesses. If they don't
• 40:24
  Speaker 4: have rim protection, they're gonna create cuts inside. If they
• 40:27
  Speaker 4: give up a lot of threes, He's gonna tell non
• 40:29
  Speaker 4: like inconsistent shooters to bomb away because it gives them
• 40:32
  Speaker 4: the biggest edge in terms of the percentage chances. He
• 40:34
  Speaker 4: finds all of those small edges that you need, and
• 40:38
  Speaker 4: he takes advantage of him. If this sounds like simple stuff,
• 40:40
  Speaker 4: it's because so many coaches screw it up. They don't
• 40:43
  Speaker 4: take advantage of what of the advantages that they have
• 40:45
  Speaker 4: in a series, the weaknesses of the opponent, And the
• 40:48
  Speaker 4: other thing is like they need it. You have to
• 40:49
  Speaker 4: trust your players. Spow trust Jimmy Butler. He knows he's
• 40:52
  Speaker 4: got to do that. He empowers them to do. They
• 40:54
  Speaker 4: learn that from the time with Dwayne Wade and Lebron
• 40:57
  Speaker 4: and that gives them a huge advantage in terms of
• 40:58
  Speaker 4: keeping those guys connected with the game plan.
• 41:02
  Speaker 5: I think you.
• 41:02
  Speaker 3: Touched on something interesting there, and that is I think
• 41:05
  Speaker 3: Spoe and Jimmy are brilliant together. They're both good at
• 41:09
  Speaker 3: adapting to one another and understanding what the other needs.
• 41:13
  Speaker 3: And Jimmy, because of his health, he's picked his spots
• 41:17
  Speaker 3: so well, he'll take time, you know, take games where
• 41:19
  Speaker 3: he'll go off and score.
• 41:21
  Speaker 5: He'll take times.
• 41:21
  Speaker 3: Where he will back off and facilitate a little bit.
• 41:25
  Speaker 3: And Spoe is really good at balancing all of that
• 41:29
  Speaker 3: out and uh just sort of making up for whatever
• 41:33
  Speaker 3: he's getting from Jimmy, just making up for it in
• 41:35
  Speaker 3: other places.
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: Uh, Simon, I feel like Spoe is our Howie Roseman
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: NBA analog in that don't try to outthink it, just
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: do the smartest thing that's right in front of you,
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: and it's probably gonna work out.
• 41:56
  Speaker 2: Okay. My favorite Spo moment, this will be really quick,
• 42:00
  Speaker 2: will be last year and Jimmy Butler wanted to fight
• 42:02
  Speaker 2: him on the bench. You remember that. Yeah, he was
• 42:04
  Speaker 2: like fight me and Spoe this look of like this
• 42:06
  Speaker 2: motherfucker is so crazy like and he didn't back down
• 42:10
  Speaker 2: though he stood right there. I'd love that there's moments
• 42:12
  Speaker 2: where this is why you need guys like Spoe. Right, Yes,
• 42:15
  Speaker 2: Spoe might be a little nerd, but he's talk of shit.
• 42:18
  Speaker 2: You can tell he's he's grinding for everything he's earned
• 42:20
  Speaker 2: in life. So again, players they look in respect to
• 42:23
  Speaker 2: those kind of guys. So you just see that him
• 42:25
  Speaker 2: and Jimmy have been in these battles, these wars together.
• 42:27
  Speaker 2: That's huge growth. Where the opposite side, this Celtic coach,
• 42:31
  Speaker 2: the dude's my age, he's like thirty three, thirty four.
• 42:33
  Speaker 2: He's got no experience, and there's a couple of times
• 42:35
  Speaker 2: he looked like a deer in headlights, not making adjustments
• 42:38
  Speaker 2: and other things. So to me, that heat coaching advantage
• 42:40
  Speaker 2: that is going to be huge if they were able
• 42:42
  Speaker 2: to steal this series.
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: Everyone knows that you should trust a fifty two year
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: old before a thirty four year old.
• 42:48
  Speaker 2: Facts.
• 42:49
  Speaker 3: I also think too, again, how Miszoula relates to a
• 42:53
  Speaker 3: Jason Tatum who's already been inconsistent. Not to take anything
• 42:56
  Speaker 3: away from how amazing he was in Game seven, but
• 42:59
  Speaker 3: if you look at his postseason performances, a lot of
• 43:02
  Speaker 3: times up and down Finals last year, struggled shooting the ball.
• 43:06
  Speaker 3: So that combination, once again with that inexperienced head coach,
• 43:10
  Speaker 3: that indecision at times in crunch time, that is something
• 43:14
  Speaker 3: to look for as well.
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: All right, let's run through it. Maria is making a
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: bet at some point on the heat. She's also betting
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: on the Celtics to win Game one. Matt Moore is
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: betting on the Heat to win Game one, and his
• 43:29
  Speaker 1: favorite bet is Heat plus two and a half in
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: the series. All right, WNBA Las Vegas aces reigning champs
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: shortest odds to win the NBA title. They're at about
• 43:47
  Speaker 1: plus one point fifteen at the WNBA is now loaded.
• 43:52
  Speaker 1: You have to bet the WNBA our debut odds boost
• 43:57
  Speaker 1: on bet three sixty five. Bet three sixty five is
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: boosting the bets we like most each week, and this
• 44:06
  Speaker 1: is the first week we're trying it. Maria's title pick, Maria,
• 44:10
  Speaker 1: name it right now.
• 44:12
  Speaker 3: I do think the most realistic thing we see here
• 44:14
  Speaker 3: is the Liberty winning the title.
• 44:16
  Speaker 1: It's Maria's title pick is the New York Liberty. Bet
• 44:19
  Speaker 1: three sixty five has the best price in the market
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: at plus one thirty. They've moved it for us to
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: plus one fifty. If you want to make this bet
• 44:26
  Speaker 1: with us, the boosted price is live on bet three
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: sixty five right there under WNBA futures.
• 44:33
  Speaker 3: I was just having fun with with sleeper picks. I
• 44:36
  Speaker 3: put some down on the Mystics at plus fourteen hundred
• 44:40
  Speaker 3: is a little bit more of a long shot, which
• 44:42
  Speaker 3: I told Matt about a couple weeks ago on the
• 44:45
  Speaker 3: Buckets Pod. I do think the most realistic thing we
• 44:48
  Speaker 3: see here is the Liberty winning the title. When I
• 44:51
  Speaker 3: saw that I could get this a little juice on
• 44:53
  Speaker 3: bet three six five, just a little bit, I was like, Oh,
• 44:55
  Speaker 3: I'm going I'm going to Liberty here. I put it
• 44:58
  Speaker 3: in this morning because we haven't seen repeat champion in
• 45:00
  Speaker 3: the WNBA for over twenty years. If there's any team
• 45:04
  Speaker 3: that can do it, it's the Aces. Don't get me wrong,
• 45:07
  Speaker 3: they're a very deep team. Both of these teams, their
• 45:10
  Speaker 3: rosters are unreal. I mean they just neither of them
• 45:15
  Speaker 3: really have any holes. But that being said, I like
• 45:20
  Speaker 3: this combination that we're seeing in the Liberty. I think
• 45:24
  Speaker 3: Branda Stewart is the best player in the world, so
• 45:27
  Speaker 3: she gets picked up by the Liberty. They also add
• 45:30
  Speaker 3: Courtney Vanderslout, who's been one of the best players in
• 45:35
  Speaker 3: the w as well for the past couple of years.
• 45:37
  Speaker 3: And they both have championship experience. So sometimes when you
• 45:40
  Speaker 3: look at a team that has never won, you say,
• 45:43
  Speaker 3: you know, what will what will happen when they get
• 45:45
  Speaker 3: to that spot. Well, now they have proven commodities in
• 45:48
  Speaker 3: their stars on the floor, as well as as their
• 45:51
  Speaker 3: coach in Sandy Brundello, who's also won, and both of
• 45:55
  Speaker 3: their bigs, so Stewie and John Paul Jones, who they
• 45:59
  Speaker 3: added via trade, can spread the floor.
• 46:03
  Speaker 5: So they're both like, let's see Stewie sixty four, John
• 46:07
  Speaker 5: Paul Jones is six to six.
• 46:09
  Speaker 3: They're both like thirty seven thirty eight percent from three
• 46:11
  Speaker 3: D which I love.
• 46:13
  Speaker 5: You have Slute and Sabrina Yinescu who was.
• 46:17
  Speaker 3: The number one pick in twenty twenty, and she is
• 46:21
  Speaker 3: a facilitating point guard but can also score. She can
• 46:24
  Speaker 3: she'll be able to play off the ball a little
• 46:26
  Speaker 3: bit more with Slute, Like, I just love this combination
• 46:29
  Speaker 3: that they have going on. Becky Hammond interestingly, has been
• 46:34
  Speaker 3: as she tends to be in the you know, in
• 46:37
  Speaker 3: the news as far as NBA head coaching vacancies.
• 46:42
  Speaker 5: I don't know if that happens. I don't know if she.
• 46:45
  Speaker 3: Makes that jump this quickly after joining the w and
• 46:48
  Speaker 3: winning a championship in her debut season. But there is
• 46:52
  Speaker 3: some of that swirling around, and I wonder how that
• 46:56
  Speaker 3: affects the aces.
• 46:57
  Speaker 1: All Right, So this Friday begins the twenty seventh season
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: of the WNBA Maria mentioned the Buckets podcast, which is
• 47:09
  Speaker 1: our regular basketball betting podcast. It now features weekly WNBA shows.
• 47:16
  Speaker 1: Here's my favorite wa bettings WNBA betting story. When we
• 47:22
  Speaker 1: first launched Action in twenty eighteen and look for It's
• 47:26
  Speaker 1: been known that betters love the WNBA. Simon can confirm this.
• 47:31
  Speaker 1: But we had a WNBA Google sheet and it was
• 47:40
  Speaker 1: early in Actions Life, maybe maybe May of twenty eighteen,
• 47:51
  Speaker 1: and somebody yells out what the fuck is going on?
• 47:56
  Speaker 1: And everybody in the office looks up, and somebody was
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: pissed because somebody had been fucking around in the WNBA
• 48:07
  Speaker 1: betting Google sheet and screwing with the models, and it
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: was getting everybody very heated. That's how intense betting on
• 48:15
  Speaker 1: the WNBA can be. Simon explain why betters love it.
• 48:20
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and it's funny from my own perspective. I was
• 48:23
  Speaker 2: one of those people where I grew up on Yukon right.
• 48:25
  Speaker 2: I just I watch a lot of women's college basketball.
• 48:28
  Speaker 2: But that's where it stopped, right because I wasn't Again,
• 48:30
  Speaker 2: this is before I was a better I didn't really
• 48:33
  Speaker 2: know much about the WNBA. And then it's literally my
• 48:36
  Speaker 2: first experience when I moved to Vegas for an entire
• 48:39
  Speaker 2: season was just tracking WNBA. So that was one of
• 48:42
  Speaker 2: those where the pros were all about it, but the
• 48:45
  Speaker 2: general public still really didn't know much about the WNBA.
• 48:49
  Speaker 2: Now fast forward to eleven years, Chad, we just talked
• 48:51
  Speaker 2: about the women's college basketball has never had higher ratings.
• 48:53
  Speaker 2: It outrated the men's basketball college basketball at one point,
• 48:57
  Speaker 2: and the women's league is expanding, right, They're already talking
• 48:59
  Speaker 2: about moving teams to Canada, now expanding to Canada. It's
• 49:02
  Speaker 2: just growing really quick. I still think thee don't understand
• 49:05
  Speaker 2: how big of an edge you can find betting WNBA.
• 49:07
  Speaker 2: And again, we have people here at the Action Network
• 49:09
  Speaker 2: that give out great content all season of stuff to
• 49:12
  Speaker 2: bet on. You can find a good edge in WNBA
• 49:14
  Speaker 2: just because the books they're willing to take your money. Right,
• 49:16
  Speaker 2: it's a lot of them trying to balance the books
• 49:18
  Speaker 2: because it's becoming a more Joe Schmoe goes home, he's
• 49:22
  Speaker 2: going to bet the WNBA. They used to not be
• 49:24
  Speaker 2: that way, used to only really be the pros. Now
• 49:26
  Speaker 2: it's really expanding. So it used to be if you
• 49:28
  Speaker 2: bet one hundred on WNBA, you kind of red flag
• 49:31
  Speaker 2: to a lot of these sports books, you're kind of
• 49:32
  Speaker 2: on their radar. Now you don't have to worry about
• 49:34
  Speaker 2: that people. You can really get good money down on
• 49:36
  Speaker 2: the WNBA. So to me, the pros have always been
• 49:39
  Speaker 2: on it. Football Me and chat joke all the time.
• 49:42
  Speaker 2: My goal is fifty five percent people, So if you
• 49:44
  Speaker 2: have pros out there that expect to hit eighty seventy
• 49:47
  Speaker 2: percent of the WNBA, that shows you how big of
• 49:49
  Speaker 2: an edge you can get betting it. Nowadays, the NBA
• 49:52
  Speaker 2: is just all ISOs, right, people complain about that all
• 49:54
  Speaker 2: the time. You don't get that WNBA. They actually move
• 49:56
  Speaker 2: the ball, they set picks. It's worth reading the articles
• 49:59
  Speaker 2: to learn about it because you could find huge edges
• 50:01
  Speaker 2: all summer. You don't need it, just bet baseball.
• 50:03
  Speaker 1: The Las Vegas Aces you mentioned Becky Hammond raining MVP
• 50:07
  Speaker 1: Asia Wilson. Also Kelsey Plumb, who became a superstar during
• 50:13
  Speaker 1: the celebration for the Aces when they won and then
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: got married to former Raiders tight end Darren Waller.
• 50:22
  Speaker 2: And he no.
• 50:25
  Speaker 1: Current Giants tight end. But the reason I say former
• 50:28
  Speaker 1: Raiders tight end is because she was throwing shade at
• 50:32
  Speaker 1: Raiders coach Josh McDaniels after the Wedding the Liberty. Meanwhile,
• 50:37
  Speaker 1: a super team. You mentioned Jean Quaul Jones, You mentioned
• 50:41
  Speaker 1: Brionn Stewart, who Kevin Durant recruited to come join the
• 50:45
  Speaker 1: Liberty and then of course he got traded. But are
• 50:48
  Speaker 1: those other than Maria's bet three six ' five boost
• 50:54
  Speaker 1: to plus one p fifty on the Liberty to win title.
• 50:58
  Speaker 1: Matt Moore, those either of those teams your favorite win
• 51:02
  Speaker 1: total for the year in the WNBA.
• 51:05
  Speaker 4: No, I will type the Atlanta Dream over eighteen and
• 51:08
  Speaker 4: a half. That team really showed out last year. They're
• 51:12
  Speaker 4: under the radar. Simon kind of talked about it. One
• 51:14
  Speaker 4: of the reasons I think that the market is so
• 51:16
  Speaker 4: soft on WNBA is because there's kind of this stratification
• 51:20
  Speaker 4: of the There's like two teams that are typically elite
• 51:22
  Speaker 4: and they'll cover it at high rate. There's like two
• 51:25
  Speaker 4: teams below that or that are really good and they
• 51:27
  Speaker 4: won't cover it high rates. They're kind of not fraudulent,
• 51:29
  Speaker 4: but just like not as strong versus the number. And
• 51:33
  Speaker 4: then like there's this mix of teams that are really
• 51:35
  Speaker 4: always kind of behind and the dream of that for
• 51:37
  Speaker 4: me last season where I was betting them pretty consistently
• 51:39
  Speaker 4: because I saw what they were capable of and how
• 51:41
  Speaker 4: they could kind of pull this off.
• 51:43
  Speaker 6: The Dream's number, I think is really really soft here.
• 51:45
  Speaker 4: There's an eighteen and a half, a nineteen and a
• 51:47
  Speaker 4: half in the market when they won eighteen last year.
• 51:49
  Speaker 4: They've improved, They've added significant upgrades across what they're able
• 51:54
  Speaker 4: to bring. Alicia Gray I think is a huge upgrade
• 51:56
  Speaker 4: for them. I think Ryan Howard is going to take
• 51:58
  Speaker 4: a big step up for them this season as well.
• 52:01
  Speaker 4: Her defense is absolutely amazing. The offense is where I'm
• 52:04
  Speaker 4: gonna have a little bit of some concerns, but a
• 52:08
  Speaker 4: lot of where I get to in WNBA also is
• 52:10
  Speaker 4: three point variants. This team projects to shoot more threes
• 52:13
  Speaker 4: this season.
• 52:14
  Speaker 6: That to me is huge.
• 52:15
  Speaker 4: You can find huge edges, huge edges in WNBA based.
• 52:18
  Speaker 6: Off a three point volume. They are where the league was.
• 52:21
  Speaker 4: The NBA was back in like twenty thirteen, where you're
• 52:25
  Speaker 4: starting to see the emergence of the pace in Space era,
• 52:27
  Speaker 4: but it hadn't really caught on as full yet. It's
• 52:30
  Speaker 4: why I was on ACES from the minute Becky Hammond
• 52:32
  Speaker 4: got hired because the first thing she said, Oppressor was like, yeah,
• 52:35
  Speaker 4: we're gonna shoot.
• 52:36
  Speaker 6: More threes this year immediately, Like it was that simple.
• 52:39
  Speaker 4: The only thing that was holding the Aces back was
• 52:41
  Speaker 4: their three point volume, which is what makes the Malta here,
• 52:44
  Speaker 4: yeah exactly, which is what makes these matchups so fascinating
• 52:48
  Speaker 4: between those two super teams. But yeah, I think Atlanta
• 52:50
  Speaker 4: Dream is a really soft number at eighteen and a half,
• 52:52
  Speaker 4: nineteen and a half in the market. I think they're
• 52:53
  Speaker 4: gonna be really good this year.
• 52:55
  Speaker 3: What about you, Maria, So I'm gonna give you a
• 52:59
  Speaker 3: total that I like. But just to Simon's point about
• 53:02
  Speaker 3: sort of this sweet spot that we're in right now
• 53:04
  Speaker 3: with the WNBA, I mean, this is the first season
• 53:09
  Speaker 3: that I can see where, you know, across the board
• 53:13
  Speaker 3: sportsbooks have.
• 53:15
  Speaker 5: Win totals like I didn't.
• 53:17
  Speaker 3: I couldn't bet this last year, and so it's it's
• 53:20
  Speaker 3: it's new, it's still niche enough, and to your point, like,
• 53:25
  Speaker 3: oh god, I don't want to bet baseball like ever,
• 53:29
  Speaker 3: and I'm just a hoops I'm just a hoops junkie.
• 53:31
  Speaker 3: I like basketball, so and like this is it's so
• 53:34
  Speaker 3: much easier, Like a forty game season is great. I mean,
• 53:38
  Speaker 3: this isn't like the NBA where half the games don't matter,
• 53:41
  Speaker 3: Like forty games, it's like the perfect amount of time.
• 53:46
  Speaker 3: I like the time of year, it's in the summer,
• 53:49
  Speaker 3: like it's just it's just so fun. And you know,
• 53:53
  Speaker 3: there are some principles if you like betting NBA, you
• 53:56
  Speaker 3: can certainly apply them to WNBA, But as far as
• 54:01
  Speaker 3: a total is concerned, and I sort of tease this
• 54:03
  Speaker 3: before about like the Mystics maybe being a sleeper you
• 54:07
  Speaker 3: can get really good value on them to win a championship.
• 54:10
  Speaker 3: They have Elena Della Don who is a former MVP,
• 54:14
  Speaker 3: and she really hasn't been healthy the last couple of years.
• 54:16
  Speaker 3: So like last year she only played twenty five games.
• 54:20
  Speaker 3: Now is a thirty six game season. Last year, it's
• 54:22
  Speaker 3: very important. And the Mystics went twenty two and fourteen.
• 54:28
  Speaker 3: They're total this year is twenty four and a half.
• 54:32
  Speaker 3: So if she's playing more and traveling more, I think
• 54:36
  Speaker 3: they can win two or three more games. So that's
• 54:39
  Speaker 3: a really good example, like you want to look at that,
• 54:43
  Speaker 3: And so I like them for a total, And it's
• 54:48
  Speaker 3: like the information is if you know where to find it,
• 54:53
  Speaker 3: you can you can definitely get an edge, but it
• 54:55
  Speaker 3: and it is there. I mean when I first started
• 54:58
  Speaker 3: covering WNBA in twenty eighteen, and there was nothing. I'm
• 55:02
  Speaker 3: telling you, there were like two WNBA writers that I
• 55:05
  Speaker 3: knew of. It was so hard to just even find
• 55:08
  Speaker 3: who's on the injury report. In this like five year span,
• 55:13
  Speaker 3: it's just gotten better and better and better, so you
• 55:16
  Speaker 3: can find the information.
• 55:18
  Speaker 5: It's not going to be plastered everywhere like it is.
• 55:20
  Speaker 3: In the NBA, and that's where you get the edge.
• 55:25
  Speaker 1: Yeah. Look, it's the beauty is there's a limited number
• 55:29
  Speaker 1: of games. Every game has a level of intensity. The
• 55:33
  Speaker 1: quality of play is unbelievable. It's great to see in person.
• 55:39
  Speaker 1: Don't forget go to game time. Find tickets near you.
• 55:44
  Speaker 1: So Maria clearly is in love with the Mystics because
• 55:48
  Speaker 1: she likes them as a long shot and she likes
• 55:51
  Speaker 1: their win total. Matt is going with Atlanta. How about
• 55:58
  Speaker 1: for both of you MVP first, Maria, give me your MVP.
• 56:05
  Speaker 5: Okay, So I'm gonna blow your mind right now.
• 56:08
  Speaker 1: I'm ready.
• 56:09
  Speaker 3: Chelsea Gray is on the Aces. She was the Finals
• 56:14
  Speaker 3: MVP last year. She had a historic postseason.
• 56:20
  Speaker 8: She averaged like twenty two points seven assists, fifty four
• 56:25
  Speaker 8: percent from three a true shooting percentage of seventy two
• 56:29
  Speaker 8: percent sixty one percent from the floor.
• 56:32
  Speaker 3: She has plus ten thousand to bet the WMBA MVP,
• 56:37
  Speaker 3: and I bet on.
• 56:37
  Speaker 5: That what what what?
• 56:40
  Speaker 3: What do you?
• 56:40
  Speaker 5: What do you been giving me that phase?
• 56:41
  Speaker 4: Formatt, because here's my three five last year in the
• 56:46
  Speaker 4: regular season, I'm forty six percent thirty eight. She had
• 56:49
  Speaker 4: a great, great, great, great, great great series.
• 56:52
  Speaker 6: For sure.
• 56:54
  Speaker 1: No way, no way, that is what that is why
• 56:56
  Speaker 1: she's such long uns. It's true, right, so what so what?
• 57:01
  Speaker 5: Okay? But put a sprinkle on that number.
• 57:04
  Speaker 1: By the way, Matt, give us someone better.
• 57:07
  Speaker 6: You're so smart, Ellen Deleadon, I already.
• 57:11
  Speaker 3: Bet dele don just to be sick, just to be fair,
• 57:13
  Speaker 3: I bet delea Don as well.
• 57:15
  Speaker 5: I'm just saying, well, can I just finish my point
• 57:18
  Speaker 5: real quick?
• 57:18
  Speaker 3: Because my whole thing is like, we expect Aces and
• 57:24
  Speaker 3: Liberty to be the two best teams, and usually the
• 57:27
  Speaker 3: MVP is on one of the.
• 57:28
  Speaker 5: Two best teams.
• 57:29
  Speaker 3: And again at those odds, like Chelsea Gray has turned
• 57:32
  Speaker 3: a corner where she kind of showed that when the
• 57:35
  Speaker 3: Aces were playing their best, she was the the you know,
• 57:38
  Speaker 3: the lame phrase, the straw that theres a drink or
• 57:40
  Speaker 3: whatever like that was her So sorry, Matt Well, I.
• 57:44
  Speaker 6: Would just say, here's the thing.
• 57:45
  Speaker 4: Having covered so many annoying super teams in the NBA,
• 57:49
  Speaker 4: one of the things that we see consistently is the
• 57:51
  Speaker 4: MVP value is not really there.
• 57:52
  Speaker 6: The reason is like their usage gets distributed.
• 57:55
  Speaker 4: And now that that Aces team last year could have
• 57:57
  Speaker 4: qualified a super team on its own with the kind
• 57:58
  Speaker 4: of talent that they had. Yes, they're out in Canadas
• 58:01
  Speaker 4: now right, so like the usage is going to be
• 58:03
  Speaker 4: even more kind of distributed down like they's still there.
• 58:06
  Speaker 4: You have to factor in what kind of numbers can
• 58:09
  Speaker 4: they put up, Like you want WNBA to be, you
• 58:12
  Speaker 4: want MVPs and basketball to be on teams players with
• 58:15
  Speaker 4: high usage, they have to put up big numbers to
• 58:18
  Speaker 4: keep their teams afloat that can do it to win games.
• 58:21
  Speaker 4: One of the reasons that that Stewie has won so
• 58:23
  Speaker 4: many is, yeah, she definitely had some help out there
• 58:27
  Speaker 4: in Seattle, but she was by far and away, like
• 58:30
  Speaker 4: the reason. And on both of these teams, I think
• 58:33
  Speaker 4: they've got so much help that it's going to be
• 58:35
  Speaker 4: distributed across. They're going to be able to hit you
• 58:37
  Speaker 4: from so many angles. I don't see but much value
• 58:40
  Speaker 4: on the players on Aces or Liberty to win WNBA MVP.
• 58:44
  Speaker 6: I do love Deldon though.
• 58:46
  Speaker 4: Plus six hundred and six to one for a beast
• 58:48
  Speaker 4: that's going to put up big numbers, she's still dominant
• 58:52
  Speaker 4: to me, that's the best value on the board.
• 58:54
  Speaker 3: To be clear, Like again, I did put I did
• 58:56
  Speaker 3: put money on Deladan. But you said it last year
• 59:00
  Speaker 3: the Aces essentially were a super team already. Yeah, they
• 59:03
  Speaker 3: add Candas, they add Alicia Clark, you know, lose Dereka
• 59:07
  Speaker 3: hanby whatever. We had that argument last year who's the MVP,
• 59:12
  Speaker 3: Asia or Stewie, And it didn't hurt Asia's argument that
• 59:17
  Speaker 3: she was on the Aces and she had a lot
• 59:19
  Speaker 3: of help. She still was the MVP. That's all I'm saying.
• 59:23
  Speaker 1: What about birth Ya of the Year.
• 59:26
  Speaker 3: So Rookie of the Year, I think it's Diamond Miller
• 59:33
  Speaker 3: for the Links at like plus three ten or so.
• 59:37
  Speaker 3: I believe because the thing, you know, Simon, you touched
• 59:41
  Speaker 3: on it too. How the league needs to expand We
• 59:44
  Speaker 3: only got twelve teams, We only have one hundred and
• 59:46
  Speaker 3: forty four or fewer roster spots because a lot of
• 59:48
  Speaker 3: these teams are fighting salary caps that a lot of
• 59:50
  Speaker 3: times they can only fit like eleven players. It's wild
• 59:54
  Speaker 3: you have first round draft picks that aren't making rosters.
• 59:56
  Speaker 3: So you really have to look closely at like not
• 59:58
  Speaker 3: only who's gonna make the team, but who's actually gonna
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 3: play and get minutes. And so I look at Diamond Miller,
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 3: who was number two pick, and she like, she's already played.
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 3: She started, she's starting the preseason games, she's getting on
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 3: the floor, she's being productive. Like you again to your point,
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 3: Matt about usage, like you need a rookie that is
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 3: actually going to play now.
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 5: Aliah Boston was the was the top pick in the draft,
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 5: but she's playing for the Fever.
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 3: The Fever were horrible last year, mainly because they're full
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 3: of rookies, Like they're still gonna probably be the worst
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 3: team in the league.
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 5: And so I wonder if that.
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 3: Hurts her, you know, overall chances and the Links have
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 3: produced a couple of Rookies of the Year in recent
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 3: years with if he's a Collier in Crystal Dangerfield and.
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 5: So I just I feel like she is.
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 3: It's kind of a safe ish play, like it's not
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 3: like she's you know, it's not like crazy value or anything,
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 3: but like she's gonna play, so that right there is
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 3: good enough for me. But I do think you need
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 3: to monitor this a little bit. Final rosters are due
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 3: Thursday at five pm.
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 5: And also just.
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 3: Because you're your rookie that you like might not be
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 3: on the team to start the season, there's a lot
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 3: of movement, so like kind of kind of pay attention
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 3: because you know, rookies float around a lot.
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 1: The attention people by the way. That's but that's the
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 1: theme for betting the WNBA. It's like that there's information
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 1: to be had, but it's not as prevalent as NBA,
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 1: so that's where the advantages are also to be had.
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 1: Matt Moore, do you have a favorite rookie of the
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 1: year bet? Right now?
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 6: It's too sharp.
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 4: It's a Leah Boston look. In preseason, she's she's averaging.
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 4: She had eight and eight and she played no more
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 4: than eighteen minutes, Like she's going to have so many
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 4: scoring opportunities. I just think she's going to put a
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 4: bigger numbers and that's what typically tends to win.
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 2: I will I.
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 4: Will cop to not have done enough research on Rookie
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 4: of the Year for WNBA to know whether or not
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 4: win percentage just factored in. I can only go off
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 4: of like what we've seen in the other sports, not
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 4: just NBA but the other sports. But generally speaking, rookies
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 4: get a pass on how good their team is. So
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 4: even though the fever are going to be truly awful,
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 4: just truly terrible this year, I do think that Allah
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 4: will play up very good numbers, but she's minus two fifty.
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 4: I don't want to lay two to fifty on a
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 4: WNBA rookie of the year. I just there's not enough
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 4: minutes usage, et cetera to go around. So I think
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 4: Elia doesn't project as strongly as some of the other
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 4: dominant ones we've seen. So I want to stay away
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 4: from the market. But if I have were to bet,
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 4: I just lay the two to fifty on a lee
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 4: of b Austin.
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 1: For more WNBA betting content this summer, check out Maria
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 1: and our WNBA experts every week on The Buckets Podcast,
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 1: the basketball betting podcast from the Action Network. As a reminder,
• 1:02:58
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