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Transcript

Campaigning Cats and Dogs · Politix

0:00
SPEAKER_01: there's some poison in here right like there is something that is unseen about this
0:05
SPEAKER_01: woman that they know that is so bad for the party that they need to speak up like
0:10
SPEAKER_01: and it's not there for marjorie taylor green it's not you know uh it's not there
0:14
SPEAKER_01: for uh nick fuentes or any it's her and something about her relationship with trump
0:20
SPEAKER_01: and it's it's it's weird
0:27
SPEAKER_01: Hey everyone, you're listening to a free preview of the Politics Podcast.
0:30
SPEAKER_01: This week,
0:32
SPEAKER_01: MAGA is trying to regroup after Donald Trump lost the debate,
0:36
SPEAKER_01: and they're doing it the only way they know how,
0:38
SPEAKER_01: which is by attacking the moderators,
0:42
SPEAKER_01: attacking Haitian immigrants,
0:45
SPEAKER_01: attacking Taylor Swift.
0:47
SPEAKER_01: So on the one hand,
0:48
SPEAKER_01: they've successfully pushed most debate commentary out of the news,
0:53
SPEAKER_01: but on the other hand...
0:55
SPEAKER_01: Is this really better for them than a conversation about how Donald Trump lost the debate?
0:59
SPEAKER_01: And how conscious are they being about trying to change the topic?
1:04
SPEAKER_01: Matt and I will debate and discuss all of that.
1:06
SPEAKER_01: So I hope you enjoy the conversation.
1:08
SPEAKER_01: And if you want to hear the whole thing, you can upgrade your subscription to paid at politics.fm.
1:18
SPEAKER_01: Hey everyone.
1:19
SPEAKER_01: Welcome to the politics podcast.
1:20
SPEAKER_01: I'm Brian Boitler.
1:21
SPEAKER_01: I'm Matthew Iglesias.
1:22
SPEAKER_01: Um, so it feels like forever ago, uh, but it was actually just a week.
1:27
SPEAKER_01: Um, Donald Trump.
1:28
SPEAKER_01: It really is like a lifetime every week.
1:31
SPEAKER_01: This one in particular,
1:33
SPEAKER_01: um,
1:33
SPEAKER_01: uh,
1:35
SPEAKER_01: and part of it is that I was just so,
1:37
SPEAKER_01: so jet lag last week that,
1:39
SPEAKER_01: um,
1:39
SPEAKER_01: it took a couple of days for me,
1:41
SPEAKER_01: my circadians to reset.
1:42
SPEAKER_01: And so it's been a long week just on its own.
1:44
SPEAKER_01: Um,
1:45
SPEAKER_01: But it's also just that they went a little crazy after the debate and a lot of stuff has happened.
1:53
SPEAKER_01: So in the immediate aftermath, the Trump campaign –
1:59
SPEAKER_01: did what I think you normally expect Donald Trump to do is in the face of defeat, they claim victory.
2:04
SPEAKER_01: It's what they did in Iowa in 2016 and after he lost the 2020 election.
2:10
SPEAKER_01: And apparently it also applies to debates too.
2:12
SPEAKER_01: But it wasn't really sticking because everyone watched the debate and they saw that he lost.
2:17
SPEAKER_01: So they...
2:20
SPEAKER_01: changed the talking point a little to say it was three on one and he triumphed
2:24
SPEAKER_01: anyway and the moderators screwed him.
2:29
SPEAKER_01: But then they also just doubled down on what I think most people viewed as one of
2:34
SPEAKER_01: his worst moments was smearing the Haitian immigrants in Springfield,
2:38
SPEAKER_01: Ohio by saying that they eat people's pets.
2:43
SPEAKER_01: But even with all that happening, a lot of the
2:48
SPEAKER_01: people who support Donald Trump are still trying to relitigate the debate.
2:53
SPEAKER_01: Um, so it's a, it's a bit of a, it's a bit of a mess.
2:57
SPEAKER_01: And I, I like, I'm a little bit hesitant to, um,
3:02
SPEAKER_01: to impute too much method to it, but there's clearly something happening.
3:05
SPEAKER_01: So how would you break it down, Matt?
3:07
SPEAKER_00: Well,
3:07
SPEAKER_00: so I mean,
3:07
SPEAKER_00: I think there's like three big buckets of craziness that we kind of discussed over
3:14
SPEAKER_00: the past week,
3:14
SPEAKER_00: right?
3:15
SPEAKER_00: One, which is in the like the pure atavism
3:20
SPEAKER_00: is that Trump started hanging out extensively with Laura Loomer to the point of
3:26
SPEAKER_00: bringing her as his official guest to the 9-11 commemorations.
3:32
SPEAKER_01: Oh, right, yeah.
3:33
SPEAKER_01: 9-11 anniversary was this week, too.
3:35
SPEAKER_00: So Loomer, I mean, I don't quite know how to describe her.
3:40
SPEAKER_00: Loomer is a figure who is enough of a nut job that she generates significant intra-party criticism.
3:48
SPEAKER_00: You know,
3:48
SPEAKER_00: there's,
3:48
SPEAKER_00: like,
3:49
SPEAKER_00: not that much that,
3:50
SPEAKER_00: like,
3:51
SPEAKER_00: orthodox Republicans in good standing will call Trump out on these days.
3:56
SPEAKER_00: But, like, Loomer is, I think, a self-avowed white nationalist.
4:02
SPEAKER_00: She...
4:04
SPEAKER_00: does a lot of 9-11 conspiracy theories.
4:06
SPEAKER_00: It's not really clear why she was in Trump's company so extensively.
4:14
SPEAKER_00: Some people have raised their eyebrows at this.
4:17
SPEAKER_01: I want you to be able to keep your three buckets clear in mind, so I'm sorry to interrupt you.
4:22
SPEAKER_01: So like Loomer,
4:23
SPEAKER_01: I think the way a lot of people in politics talk about her is that she's the white
4:27
SPEAKER_01: nationalist MAGA influencer who's too extreme and conspiratorial minded even for
4:33
SPEAKER_01: Marjorie Taylor Greene.
4:35
SPEAKER_01: And a lot of people think that that in and of itself explains why so many Republicans –
4:42
SPEAKER_01: seem concerned that Trump is hanging out with her.
4:44
SPEAKER_01: But to me, there's something weird about that.
4:47
SPEAKER_01: Like, and you, you were winking at it, right?
4:49
SPEAKER_01: Like what, why does Donald Trump like to spend so much time with this 31 year old woman?
4:53
SPEAKER_01: And I, we obviously don't,
4:57
SPEAKER_01: you know,
4:58
SPEAKER_01: can,
4:58
SPEAKER_01: can,
4:58
SPEAKER_01: can only speculate what they do behind the scenes,
5:01
SPEAKER_01: but the way that people like not Marjorie Taylor green,
5:03
SPEAKER_01: but like Lindsey Graham and Senator Tom Tillis,
5:07
SPEAKER_01: these,
5:08
SPEAKER_01: um,
5:08
SPEAKER_01: these,
5:09
SPEAKER_01: you know,
5:10
SPEAKER_01: Republicans in reasonably good standing with Trump,
5:12
SPEAKER_01: particularly Graham,
5:14
SPEAKER_01: they are acting like there's some,
5:18
SPEAKER_01: um,
5:20
SPEAKER_01: There's some poison in here, right?
5:22
SPEAKER_01: There is something that is unseen about this woman that they know that is so bad
5:28
SPEAKER_01: for the party that they need to speak up.
5:30
SPEAKER_01: And it's not there for Marjorie Taylor Greene.
5:33
SPEAKER_01: It's not there for Nick Fuentes or any... It's her and something about her relationship with Trump.
5:40
SPEAKER_01: And it's weird.
5:43
SPEAKER_01: To me, it's more than just...
5:45
SPEAKER_01: she's so offensive that even Marjorie Taylor green can't take it.
5:48
SPEAKER_01: Cause that doesn't really wash to me.
5:49
SPEAKER_01: They say about, you know, very similar conspiracy adult stuff.
5:55
SPEAKER_00: Yes.
5:55
SPEAKER_01: I don't get it.
5:57
SPEAKER_00: Right.
5:57
SPEAKER_00: So she was described in one account,
5:59
SPEAKER_00: one account said that she was seen as a Rasputin-like figure in some conservative circles,
6:05
SPEAKER_00: you know,
6:05
SPEAKER_00: in a bad way.
6:07
SPEAKER_00: I assume they don't mean literally that she is a faith healer to Donald Trump's children,
6:15
SPEAKER_00: but that she has a,
6:16
SPEAKER_00: you know,
6:19
SPEAKER_00: personal relationship with donald trump that allows her to bypass the institutional
6:26
SPEAKER_00: structures that are supposed to be in place around the campaign and that this gives
6:32
SPEAKER_00: a lot of republicans um grounds for concern i think the reasonable presumption
6:37
SPEAKER_00: would be that that is a personal relationship of a sexual nature rather than of a
6:42
SPEAKER_00: faith healing nature um
6:44
SPEAKER_00: Possibly she's a faith.
6:45
SPEAKER_00: I mean, I don't know, right?
6:48
SPEAKER_01: Milo Yiannopoulos suggested that they are having an affair,
6:52
SPEAKER_01: but that Trump is too old to have conventional intercourse,
6:54
SPEAKER_01: so it's mostly blowjobs.
6:56
SPEAKER_00: Yes, that is what Nalo said.
6:59
SPEAKER_00: I'm not sure that we should take that seriously.
7:00
SPEAKER_01: I take it perfectly seriously.
7:03
SPEAKER_00: Melania Trump has not been on the campaign trail with her husband,
7:08
SPEAKER_00: which is unusual in the course of political events.
7:12
SPEAKER_00: She also was not present with her husband at the September 11th commemoration,
7:18
SPEAKER_00: which is in New York City,
7:20
SPEAKER_00: where she lives.
7:22
SPEAKER_00: So, I mean, that was interesting.
7:24
SPEAKER_00: I don't have any information beyond that.
7:28
SPEAKER_00: But it's, you know, I've lived in New York.
7:32
SPEAKER_00: People don't make it down to the financial district that much unless they live and work there.
7:36
SPEAKER_00: But it's not impossible to do if you are motivated or invited to VIP events.
7:43
SPEAKER_01: Okay.
7:44
SPEAKER_01: That's the atavistic.
7:45
SPEAKER_01: Like, that's just Trump following his dick around.
7:48
SPEAKER_00: So that's totally insane.
7:50
SPEAKER_00: Then you have...
7:51
SPEAKER_00: the debate conspiracy theories, that the debate was rigged by ABC News insiders.
7:57
SPEAKER_00: That's just, I think, classic right-wing politics.
8:01
SPEAKER_00: It's stupid, but it responds in a specific way to Trump's problem.
8:10
SPEAKER_00: It plugs into a longstanding conservative view that the media is biased and liberal, and
8:17
SPEAKER_00: As is often the case with these things, they are grabbing onto shards of truth.
8:24
SPEAKER_00: Like I have frequently seen it said that one of the moderators was Kamala Harris's
8:28
SPEAKER_00: sorority sister,
8:30
SPEAKER_00: which is to say that she was in the same sorority on a different campus at a
8:35
SPEAKER_00: different time.
8:36
SPEAKER_00: That's not a real conflict of interest.
8:41
SPEAKER_00: What is true is that they are both black women.
8:45
SPEAKER_00: And that's why they were both in historically black sororities on campus.
8:50
SPEAKER_00: So one can, you know, statistically infer that she's probably sympathetic to Harris.
8:56
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
8:57
SPEAKER_00: And then,
8:58
SPEAKER_00: you know,
8:59
SPEAKER_00: what always happens,
9:00
SPEAKER_00: I think,
9:00
SPEAKER_00: with these conservative things,
9:01
SPEAKER_00: right,
9:02
SPEAKER_00: is that the exact same argument exists on this spectrum from,
9:06
SPEAKER_00: like,
9:07
SPEAKER_00: totally reasonable observation that,
9:09
SPEAKER_00: like,
9:10
SPEAKER_00: most journalists are Democrats to completely insane opinion that,
9:15
SPEAKER_00: like,
9:16
SPEAKER_00: there is a whistleblower document from inside ABC News which proves that the debate
9:20
SPEAKER_00: was secretly rigged with the Harris campaign being fed the answers.
9:26
SPEAKER_00: I think it's notable that Bill Ackman has been all the way out on the maximum crazy
9:33
SPEAKER_00: version of this,
9:34
SPEAKER_00: to the point of today he said he was filing a complaint with the Securities and
9:38
SPEAKER_00: Exchange Commission.
9:41
SPEAKER_00: That's notable because Ackman...
9:44
SPEAKER_00: You know, he's a finance guy.
9:46
SPEAKER_00: He's always been a bit of a loud mouth.
9:49
SPEAKER_00: Other people on Wall Street really don't like him.
9:51
SPEAKER_00: If you just ask around about Bill Ackman, you'll get a sense that he's an asshole.
9:57
SPEAKER_00: But he was not, like, a super right-wing person until extremely recently.
10:05
SPEAKER_00: Like...
10:06
SPEAKER_00: Earlier in this campaign cycle,
10:09
SPEAKER_00: he was backing Dean Phillips and was telling people that Dean Phillips would be a
10:13
SPEAKER_00: better nominee than Joe Biden because he's younger and he'd be better able to go up
10:17
SPEAKER_00: against Donald Trump.
10:19
SPEAKER_00: And even as he became a Trump supporter,
10:23
SPEAKER_00: he was like,
10:24
SPEAKER_00: Trump's got to do more to reassure people about abortion.
10:27
SPEAKER_00: And now he's just like conspiracy town in a way that's weird and speaks to some larger dynamics.
10:34
SPEAKER_00: But I think it's...
10:36
SPEAKER_00: It's a strategic play.
10:39
SPEAKER_00: Then we have the cat eaters of Springfield,
10:41
SPEAKER_00: Ohio,
10:42
SPEAKER_00: which is operating in a kind of a middle ground,
10:45
SPEAKER_00: I think,
10:46
SPEAKER_00: right?
10:46
SPEAKER_00: Like trying to shift attention to the immigration issue is like,
10:55
SPEAKER_00: That's what you would expect of Republicans.
10:58
SPEAKER_00: Trump is more trusted than Biden on the topic of immigration.
11:01
SPEAKER_00: Republicans are more trusted than Democrats on the issue of immigration.
11:05
SPEAKER_00: Immigration has emerged as a big Democratic weakness.
11:08
SPEAKER_00: They have pivoted to the center to try to minimize their weakness on that issue.
11:13
SPEAKER_00: But, you know, it's the...
11:16
SPEAKER_00: The inverse of abortion, right?
11:19
SPEAKER_00: If the 2024 election was a straight up or down abortion rights referendum,
11:23
SPEAKER_00: the pro-choice side would definitely win.
11:26
SPEAKER_00: And if it was a straight up or down referendum on asylum restrictions,
11:30
SPEAKER_00: the restrictionist side would definitely win.
11:32
SPEAKER_00: So one of the things both campaigns try to do is,
11:36
SPEAKER_00: like,
11:37
SPEAKER_00: turn the national conversation to their favorable topic.
11:41
SPEAKER_00: And on some level, that's what, you know, Vance pulled off with these pet thief tweets.
11:51
SPEAKER_00: But it's a lot more than that, too.
11:55
SPEAKER_00: Yes.
11:56
SPEAKER_00: Well, okay, so...
12:01
SPEAKER_01: So much of this is wrapped up in Trump-specific pathologies that it becomes a bit unwieldy.
12:09
SPEAKER_01: And so I'm kind of glad you started us off with Laura Loomer because it gets to the
12:15
SPEAKER_01: point that this guy,
12:17
SPEAKER_01: his impulses and his pathologies are not controllable the way...
12:27
SPEAKER_01: chris lasavita or you know just a any competent campaign manager would want them to
12:32
SPEAKER_01: be like i think a competent campaign manager after a debate performance like that
12:38
SPEAKER_01: would want the candidate to say something like i had an off night um wasn't my best
12:44
SPEAKER_01: outing but there's going to be another debate and i'm going to win that one um and
12:49
SPEAKER_01: in the meantime don't let
12:51
SPEAKER_01: my performance distract you from the issues that matter, which are inflation and immigration, right?
12:56
SPEAKER_01: And then you can be off to the races.
12:59
SPEAKER_01: You can start,
13:00
SPEAKER_01: you know,
13:02
SPEAKER_01: finding isolated instances of immigrants committing crime and wave the bloody shirt
13:06
SPEAKER_01: about them,
13:07
SPEAKER_01: and you're right back where you want to be in your kind of gross MAGA sweet spot.
13:12
SPEAKER_01: But Trump is unable to admit defeat.
13:17
SPEAKER_01: He also seems to know that he lost, which is why he's –
13:22
SPEAKER_01: floundering in this way, and also why he chickened out of the second debate.
13:26
SPEAKER_01: He doesn't want to lose again.
13:29
SPEAKER_01: But it's sending them down these paths, just doubling down on a campaign of incitement against J.D.
13:42
SPEAKER_01: Vance's own constituents, and also haranguing ABC News about
13:49
SPEAKER_01: the debate moderators and whether there was like a affidavit of the,
13:53
SPEAKER_01: where they were cheating with the Harris campaign that I think are like,
13:58
SPEAKER_01: you know,
13:59
SPEAKER_01: they're actually worse for Trump than if he just was able to control his pathologies,
14:06
SPEAKER_01: admit defeat and,
14:09
SPEAKER_01: and,
14:09
SPEAKER_01: and try to move on.
14:11
SPEAKER_01: And, and so like,
14:13
SPEAKER_01: I want the conversation to be about like where's the intention here and where isn't it?
14:17
SPEAKER_01: But I also want us to be mindful of the likelihood that like in many cases when
14:24
SPEAKER_01: Donald Trump or the people who want to help him win elections try to move the
14:28
SPEAKER_01: conversation away from something that isn't favorable to them,
14:32
SPEAKER_01: it doesn't mean that they actually succeed.
14:35
SPEAKER_01: Like they can be –
14:36
SPEAKER_01: on immigration and it can be worse for them than if we were talking about
14:41
SPEAKER_01: healthcare because it's so unrestrained and uh it's not like the borders are are
14:48
SPEAKER_01: not secure it's like these innocent people are eating pets and now there's bomb
14:54
SPEAKER_01: threats being called into their school like that seems to me like if like if you're
14:59
SPEAKER_01: chris lasavita you'd rather be talking about pre-existing conditions
15:03
SPEAKER_00: Well, I mean, I think there's always two things to talk about, right?
15:05
SPEAKER_00: So one thing that happened after the debate was Blueprint,
15:10
SPEAKER_00: who are my guys,
15:10
SPEAKER_00: these are the moderate pollster guys,
15:13
SPEAKER_00: they tested a bunch of different stuff that Harris said during the debate.
15:19
SPEAKER_00: And,
15:19
SPEAKER_00: you know,
15:20
SPEAKER_00: her single best line from the whole night was just saying,
15:24
SPEAKER_00: I'm not Joe Biden,
15:26
SPEAKER_00: because people don't like Joe Biden.
15:28
SPEAKER_00: But then,
15:29
SPEAKER_00: you know,
15:30
SPEAKER_00: her best performing lines normally was like her saying progressive stuff on the
15:38
SPEAKER_00: issues where the electorate has progressive opinions.
15:41
SPEAKER_00: Right.
15:42
SPEAKER_00: So her very best lines were like,
15:44
SPEAKER_00: I'm going to protect abortion rights,
15:46
SPEAKER_00: or it's good if sick people can get health care.
15:50
SPEAKER_00: And her moderate lines did not do nearly as well,
15:56
SPEAKER_00: where she's talking about the border security bill,
15:59
SPEAKER_00: or she's talking about prosecuting transnational criminal organizations.
16:05
SPEAKER_00: And I think there's a very naive read of that, which is like...
16:10
SPEAKER_00: This shows that you should never say anything moderate.
16:13
SPEAKER_00: I think the correct read is that,
16:16
SPEAKER_00: you know,
16:16
SPEAKER_00: if you're a Democrat,
16:18
SPEAKER_00: it's best to be talking about the policy topics on which people have progressive opinions.
16:24
SPEAKER_00: Anything Kamala says about immigration is just not as good a line as talking about
16:30
SPEAKER_00: abortion rights in healthcare.
16:32
SPEAKER_01: So I actually want to out-moderate you.
16:35
SPEAKER_00: Okay.
16:37
SPEAKER_00: But then there's a question of like, you know, it's a debate, right?
16:40
SPEAKER_00: If you get asked a question that's like, what's up with immigration, Vice President Harris?
16:45
SPEAKER_00: You can't just like say nothing on the topic.
16:48
SPEAKER_00: And I think it's smart to say something moderate and then like try to pivot to a
16:54
SPEAKER_00: stronger kind of footing.
16:56
SPEAKER_00: To me...
16:59
SPEAKER_00: Haitian migrants are invading your town and stealing people's cats.
17:08
SPEAKER_00: I mean, if it was true, that might be a really good line of attack.
17:12
SPEAKER_00: Since it's not true, it's not a great line of attack.
17:17
SPEAKER_00: And there are way better immigration messages that I think you could come up with for Republicans.
17:22
SPEAKER_00: But it's still true that,
17:25
SPEAKER_00: like,
17:25
SPEAKER_00: dragging the national conversation back to immigration is a kind of strategic move.
17:32
SPEAKER_00: Versus,
17:32
SPEAKER_00: like,
17:32
SPEAKER_00: this morning,
17:33
SPEAKER_00: right,
17:34
SPEAKER_00: Harris's campaign put out this,
17:36
SPEAKER_00: like,
17:37
SPEAKER_00: blistering statement about this ProPublica article about a woman who died,
17:43
SPEAKER_00: I believe,
17:43
SPEAKER_00: in...
17:45
SPEAKER_00: Georgia as a result of their abortion ban.
17:49
SPEAKER_00: And the reason the Harris campaign put out such,
17:54
SPEAKER_00: probably not an optimally tweaked message,
17:58
SPEAKER_00: it was like a real flamethrower statement,
18:01
SPEAKER_00: And I saw pro-life people like Lyman Stone,
18:04
SPEAKER_00: who I follow,
18:05
SPEAKER_00: he got really mad at Harris for not,
18:08
SPEAKER_00: you know,
18:09
SPEAKER_00: explaining that the real fault isn't with the legislation,
18:12
SPEAKER_00: but with the interpretation that the hospital used,
18:14
SPEAKER_00: et cetera,
18:14
SPEAKER_00: et cetera.
18:15
SPEAKER_00: And like...
18:16
SPEAKER_00: That's what the Harris campaign wants, right?
18:20
SPEAKER_00: They want to put out a statement that all the pro-choice people will be like,
18:23
SPEAKER_00: you go get her,
18:24
SPEAKER_00: girl,
18:24
SPEAKER_00: and that then all the pro-life people will argue with her.
18:28
SPEAKER_00: Because now we're having an argument about...
18:31
SPEAKER_00: The fact that Georgia passed an abortion ban,
18:34
SPEAKER_00: and the reason Georgia passed an abortion ban is that Trump's judges overturned Roe v.
18:39
SPEAKER_00: Wade,
18:39
SPEAKER_00: and Trump has bragged about overturning Roe v.
18:41
SPEAKER_00: Wade.
18:41
SPEAKER_00: And whatever argument about the details of exactly what this Georgia law says,
18:47
SPEAKER_00: you're arguing about an issue where 55% to 60% of the public just agrees with
18:52
SPEAKER_00: Kamala Harris at the end of the day,
18:54
SPEAKER_00: and that's a win for her.
18:56
SPEAKER_00: And that's true strategy.
18:59
SPEAKER_00: This cat business is not nearly as strategic as that,
19:05
SPEAKER_00: but it's in that neighborhood,
19:08
SPEAKER_00: you know,
19:09
SPEAKER_00: where it's like,
19:11
SPEAKER_00: somebody so there's fucking 300,000 Haitian immigrants in the United States of America.
19:17
SPEAKER_00: Um,
19:18
SPEAKER_00: the odds that like one of them at some point has like stolen somebody's cat or
19:23
SPEAKER_00: something or like that may have happened,
19:25
SPEAKER_00: you know,
19:26
SPEAKER_00: like,
19:26
SPEAKER_00: and someday Chris Rufo who already claimed victory based on a like totally fake video,
19:31
SPEAKER_00: I think we'll,
19:33
SPEAKER_00: we'll get his,
19:33
SPEAKER_00: his $5,000 bounty in some form or another.
19:36
SPEAKER_00: And they're all going to be like, Hey, you know, because like,
19:40
SPEAKER_00: It's just true that a lot of people have moved from Haiti to the United States of America,
19:44
SPEAKER_00: and that's probably not the most popular thing that Joe Biden did,
19:48
SPEAKER_00: but it reflects the fact that Democrats are more humane than Republicans.
19:56
SPEAKER_01: My understanding is that the in-migration of Haitians to Springfield, Ohio began under Trump.
20:03
SPEAKER_01: Part of J.D.
20:04
SPEAKER_01: Vance's big lie is that
20:06
SPEAKER_01: Kamala Harris bust them there, basically.
20:09
SPEAKER_00: Yes, yes, yes.
20:11
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, we should talk about the substance of this.
20:14
SPEAKER_01: But, like, okay, so a few things.
20:16
SPEAKER_01: And I think that they all kind of dance around the point I'm trying through a head
20:20
SPEAKER_01: cold to make,
20:21
SPEAKER_01: which is...
20:22
SPEAKER_01: Okay, so Blueprint says that Harris's lines about border security were among her worst performing.
20:33
SPEAKER_01: And I feel like that's...
20:35
SPEAKER_01: We kind of talked about this last episode,
20:38
SPEAKER_01: but I feel like it's just not useful data because it does not take into account the
20:43
SPEAKER_01: psychology of the people responding to what she said.
20:47
SPEAKER_01: And in polarized America...
20:51
SPEAKER_01: If you go out into the field and you ask,
20:52
SPEAKER_01: is this border security plan something that you support,
20:57
SPEAKER_01: you can get maybe 60% or 70% of the public to say yes.
21:01
SPEAKER_01: When Kamala Harris articulates that plan on the debate stage –
21:05
SPEAKER_01: suddenly the people watching are like,
21:07
SPEAKER_01: well,
21:07
SPEAKER_01: half of them are Republicans and their holy honor is bound up in the idea that
21:14
SPEAKER_01: Democrats suck on immigration.
21:16
SPEAKER_01: So they're going to respond poorly to it.
21:18
SPEAKER_01: And then the other half are Democrats who are split on the question of whether our
21:22
SPEAKER_01: immigration focus should be on border security or citizenship for the undocumented,
21:27
SPEAKER_01: say.
21:27
SPEAKER_01: And so they're going to split.
21:30
SPEAKER_01: And so on an issue that has 60 or 70 percent
21:36
SPEAKER_01: favorability in the abstract,
21:39
SPEAKER_01: Harris gets her pollsters coming to her and saying,
21:44
SPEAKER_01: you don't want to talk about that.
21:45
SPEAKER_01: And I feel like she can just ignore that.
21:48
SPEAKER_01: And if she thinks that it's a good spot for her to attack Donald Trump for killing
21:56
SPEAKER_01: the border security bill and say that she's going to bring it back...
22:00
SPEAKER_01: I mean,
22:01
SPEAKER_01: it doesn't get me excited because that's not my issue,
22:05
SPEAKER_01: and I side with the people who are like,
22:08
SPEAKER_01: we should emphasize citizenship.
22:10
SPEAKER_01: But I think it would be a smart political strategy, and she shouldn't be deterred by the numbers.
22:17
SPEAKER_01: Separately, she has...
22:24
SPEAKER_01: She has these good instincts on how to get abortion back into the headlines when
22:30
SPEAKER_01: Donald Trump's talking about Taylor Swift or cat-thieving Haitians or whatever.
22:36
SPEAKER_01: But you can imagine a world where Kamala Harris fucks up the abortion issue,
22:44
SPEAKER_01: and it's a world where she's like Donald Trump,
22:46
SPEAKER_01: where there is some...
22:53
SPEAKER_01: rumor somewhere about something suddenly kamala harris is out there defending you
22:59
SPEAKER_01: know uh like what how did donald trump describe it like the execution of and and
23:06
SPEAKER_01: now even though like reinstating roe is popular harris is on this indefensible side
23:12
SPEAKER_01: of the issue um and nobody would be like
23:17
SPEAKER_01: that strategic genius Kamala Harris getting abortion back into the discourse.
23:22
SPEAKER_01: But I think that when liberals hear Donald Trump and Chris Ruffo and JD Vance say
23:28
SPEAKER_01: they're eating the dogs,
23:29
SPEAKER_01: they're eating the cats,
23:30
SPEAKER_01: they're eating the pets of the people who live there.
23:32
SPEAKER_01: They think, ah, crap, they got us, you know, like we're back on immigration now.
23:37
SPEAKER_01: And my advice is,
23:41
SPEAKER_01: to Democrats is to not get so neurotic about these things and just realize that like,
23:48
SPEAKER_01: whether immigration per se is a good issue for you, the way they often talk about it is bad for them.
23:55
SPEAKER_01: And so don't sweat trying to like change the topic immediately back to abortion,
23:59
SPEAKER_01: beat them on their own turf.
24:00
SPEAKER_01: And then when,
24:01
SPEAKER_01: when the opportunity arises,
24:02
SPEAKER_01: like ProPublica writes a story about a woman dying in Georgia because of abortion
24:06
SPEAKER_01: laws there,
24:07
SPEAKER_01: then you switch to that.
24:08
SPEAKER_00: So here's, here's my case for being neurotic.
24:11
SPEAKER_01: Okay.
24:11
SPEAKER_01: Let's hear it.
24:12
SPEAKER_00: Right.
24:12
SPEAKER_00: I mean, you need to,
24:14
SPEAKER_00: think about, you know, which are the issues where immigration and climate change
24:25
SPEAKER_00: are the two issues where inside the Democratic Party, there's a very big education skew.
24:36
SPEAKER_00: You know, where college educated Democrats are much more left wing than working class Democrats.
24:43
SPEAKER_00: And, you know,
24:48
SPEAKER_00: I speak to people who have not gone to college,
24:53
SPEAKER_00: but the vast majority of my friends and social peers are college graduates.
25:00
SPEAKER_00: And so in particular,
25:01
SPEAKER_00: my sense of what the less political people who I know,
25:05
SPEAKER_00: you know,
25:07
SPEAKER_00: think,
25:07
SPEAKER_00: right,
25:08
SPEAKER_00: is like,
25:10
SPEAKER_00: I mean,
25:11
SPEAKER_00: I have a skewed sample of the population in terms of like what's controversial,
25:16
SPEAKER_00: what isn't,
25:17
SPEAKER_00: what people like about people,
25:19
SPEAKER_00: what they don't.
25:20
SPEAKER_00: And,
25:20
SPEAKER_00: you know,
25:21
SPEAKER_00: it makes those areas,
25:23
SPEAKER_00: areas where I think if you just kind of go by your gut,
25:27
SPEAKER_00: or not just by your gut,
25:28
SPEAKER_00: right,
25:29
SPEAKER_00: but in particular you go by like...
25:31
SPEAKER_00: What's getting you retweets?
25:33
SPEAKER_00: What's getting the team really amped up?
25:35
SPEAKER_00: What's quieting the ugly infighting about Gaza and getting everyone to be like,
25:42
SPEAKER_00: yes,
25:42
SPEAKER_00: this is what I find unconscionable about them?
25:45
SPEAKER_00: You can go...
25:47
SPEAKER_00: Astray,
25:48
SPEAKER_00: you know,
25:48
SPEAKER_00: you can be in a situation where without meaning to,
25:52
SPEAKER_00: you are presenting a face that is alienating to the people who are on the fringes
26:00
SPEAKER_00: of the Democratic Party coalition.
26:02
SPEAKER_00: That the thing that generates the actual, not the most emotional activity among Democrats.
26:08
SPEAKER_00: But the most unanimity among Democrats is topics like the minimum wage,
26:14
SPEAKER_00: abortion rights,
26:16
SPEAKER_00: healthcare stuff,
26:17
SPEAKER_00: et cetera,
26:18
SPEAKER_00: et cetera.
26:19
SPEAKER_00: And it's important to exercise a certain amount of self-discipline around how you
26:27
SPEAKER_00: kind of go off on these things.
26:31
SPEAKER_00: I personally find what,
26:34
SPEAKER_00: you know,
26:35
SPEAKER_00: Vance and Trump did here in Springfield to be more morally outrageous than their
26:42
SPEAKER_00: opposition to the Inflation Reduction Act's prescription drug pricing provisions.
26:48
SPEAKER_00: I think that their critique of the Inflation Reduction Act prescription drug
26:51
SPEAKER_00: pricing provisions is mistaken,
26:54
SPEAKER_00: but I think that there are serious arguments on their side of that issue.
26:58
SPEAKER_00: I've read academic papers that go back and forth.
27:03
SPEAKER_00: I believe that this is an opinion that is held in good faith by more conservative-minded people.
27:08
SPEAKER_00: I have some worries about it going too far, et cetera, et cetera.
27:12
SPEAKER_00: Whereas I'm really angered about...
27:16
SPEAKER_00: xenophobic demagoguery,
27:19
SPEAKER_00: it gets me in my gut and in my mind,
27:23
SPEAKER_00: goes to the core of why I am a liberal-minded person.
27:27
SPEAKER_00: And so I feel the instinct to be like, we got to go to town on this one.
27:32
SPEAKER_00: These guys are real motherfuckers.
27:35
SPEAKER_00: But it's just like,
27:35
SPEAKER_00: it's not factually true that a spirit of generosity across lines of ethnic
27:42
SPEAKER_00: difference is like,
27:45
SPEAKER_00: a core animating thing for most people.
27:49
SPEAKER_00: So I feel like this has been handled,
27:51
SPEAKER_00: you know,
27:51
SPEAKER_00: I think it's been handled poorly by the Harris-Walls campaign on the same level
27:58
SPEAKER_00: that I feel they handle everything poorly,
28:00
SPEAKER_00: which is like not enough direct exposure of the candidates.
28:06
SPEAKER_00: But I think that the strategy that's been taken by the surrogates,
28:09
SPEAKER_00: et cetera,
28:09
SPEAKER_00: et cetera,
28:10
SPEAKER_00: has been,
28:11
SPEAKER_00: you know,
28:11
SPEAKER_00: reasonably good,
28:13
SPEAKER_00: which is like make fun of them for being
28:15
SPEAKER_00: psychos and return to the issues that you want to talk about.
28:23
SPEAKER_01: I'm only going to half disagree with you, but it's like this.
28:27
SPEAKER_01: You started with climate change in making your case for
28:31
SPEAKER_01: being neurotic.
28:32
SPEAKER_01: And I hear you, right?
28:34
SPEAKER_01: Like,
28:34
SPEAKER_01: I don't think,
28:35
SPEAKER_01: I think it's wise that the Harris-Walls campaign does not include a cap and trade
28:42
SPEAKER_01: or carbon tax plan on their issues website.
28:47
SPEAKER_01: And I think it's good that the emotional center of their campaign is Dobbs, democracy, January 6th,
28:58
SPEAKER_01: And Republicans are weird.
28:59
SPEAKER_01: Like that's a good place to be.
29:02
SPEAKER_01: And I think that like,
29:04
SPEAKER_01: well,
29:06
SPEAKER_01: but when,
29:06
SPEAKER_01: if,
29:06
SPEAKER_01: and when Donald Trump repeats the idea that climate change is a hoax,
29:10
SPEAKER_01: a Chinese hoax,
29:11
SPEAKER_01: whatever,
29:12
SPEAKER_01: that makes it a good issue for Democrats.
29:15
SPEAKER_01: Right.
29:16
SPEAKER_01: Like,
29:18
SPEAKER_01: That is different from saying Democrat policies are going to make your energy prices higher.
29:24
SPEAKER_01: That's saying I'm full of shit and I reject –
29:31
SPEAKER_01: all evidence to the, you know, when it doesn't suit me.
29:35
SPEAKER_01: And if he does that,
29:37
SPEAKER_01: like,
29:37
SPEAKER_01: I,
29:37
SPEAKER_01: I don't think that the right thing for Harrison walls to do is try to scurry back
29:42
SPEAKER_01: to abortion.
29:42
SPEAKER_01: It's to say, these are the same no nothings that got us into the climate change mess in the first place.
29:48
SPEAKER_01: And, and we're not like, we're done with that.
29:50
SPEAKER_01: We're like, we're not going back.
29:51
SPEAKER_01: Right.
29:53
SPEAKER_01: And you know, part of me thinks that like Republicans are actually,
29:59
SPEAKER_01: learning to eat Democrats lunch on this issue because their honor is bound up in
30:06
SPEAKER_01: never admitting that climate change is real because they sunk 25 years into denying it.
30:10
SPEAKER_01: But now that they've got these crunchy RFK Jr.
30:14
SPEAKER_01: types in their coalition,
30:15
SPEAKER_01: they're starting to talk about clean air and clean water,
30:18
SPEAKER_01: which those should be democratic.
30:21
SPEAKER_01: When Democrats talk about climate change,
30:22
SPEAKER_01: they should be like,
30:23
SPEAKER_01: climate change isn't a hoax,
30:24
SPEAKER_01: and we're going to make sure that your air and water are clean and not talk about
30:27
SPEAKER_01: taxes or
30:28
SPEAKER_01: Or energy credits or anything like that.
30:32
SPEAKER_01: So,
30:33
SPEAKER_01: like,
30:33
SPEAKER_01: if you're so neurotic about what the issue polls say about what you should be
30:38
SPEAKER_01: talking about,
30:39
SPEAKER_01: you will miss it when Republicans reveal aspects of their character that are unpopular,
30:48
SPEAKER_01: even if –
30:50
SPEAKER_01: the revelation comes through an issue space that favors them.
30:54
SPEAKER_01: They can be so racist about immigrants that it's bad for them.
30:56
SPEAKER_01: And they can be so anti-intellectual about science that climate change becomes a
31:03
SPEAKER_01: winning issue for Democrats.
31:05
SPEAKER_01: And having a feel for it is important.
31:09
SPEAKER_01: You can look at the numbers and they can deceive you about what your advantage is.
31:14
SPEAKER_01: Now, here's a question that I wish I had
31:17
SPEAKER_01: thought of before we started recording so I could have prepped it.
31:21
SPEAKER_01: But what is Sherrod Brown's take on Springfield?
31:26
SPEAKER_01: What is he doing to help his constituents who are being terrorized by J.D.
31:32
SPEAKER_01: Vance and J.D.
31:33
SPEAKER_01: Vance's supporters?
31:35
SPEAKER_01: To me,
31:35
SPEAKER_01: that's an important question because he's up and this is his state and constituent
31:40
SPEAKER_01: services are very important to him.
31:43
SPEAKER_01: But I can't recall hearing him respond to this issue.
31:47
SPEAKER_00: Well, so, I mean, Brown has been, I would say, laying somewhat low.
31:53
SPEAKER_00: But, you know, he put out a statement a couple days ago.
31:55
SPEAKER_00: He said,
31:56
SPEAKER_00: bomb threats are now preventing Springfield's kids from going to school,
31:59
SPEAKER_00: residents from accessing City Hall.
32:01
SPEAKER_00: Violence is never acceptable.
32:02
SPEAKER_00: This must stop before someone gets hurt.
32:04
SPEAKER_00: Brown has been in touch with local,
32:06
SPEAKER_00: state,
32:06
SPEAKER_00: and federal law enforcement,
32:07
SPEAKER_00: city and school officials,
32:08
SPEAKER_00: and community leaders,
32:09
SPEAKER_00: and we will continue to work with them.
32:10
SPEAKER_00: Springfield faces real challenges, but the people playing politics are not helping.
32:15
SPEAKER_00: We need to lower the temperature and work together
32:16
SPEAKER_00: That is awesome.
32:17
SPEAKER_00: That's just great.
32:18
SPEAKER_00: Yes,
32:19
SPEAKER_00: but I mean,
32:19
SPEAKER_00: I think that that statement,
32:23
SPEAKER_00: I don't know if it's neurotic or not,
32:25
SPEAKER_00: because maybe Sherrod Brown is just a great intuitive politician.
32:29
SPEAKER_00: But I think the key thing about that statement is that as he's getting going,
32:38
SPEAKER_00: he does not take that statement in the direction that I would take an intuitive statement,
32:43
SPEAKER_00: which is like,
32:47
SPEAKER_00: This is an example of the kind of,
32:49
SPEAKER_00: like,
32:51
SPEAKER_00: racist demagoguery that means that,
32:54
SPEAKER_00: like,
32:54
SPEAKER_00: if you put these people in charge of the country in a moment of national crisis,
32:59
SPEAKER_00: we're going to have pogroms and lynchings.
33:01
SPEAKER_00: Instead, he pivots it to, like, we're facing real problems because all these immigrants.
33:05
SPEAKER_00: And, like, I sympathize.
33:06
SPEAKER_00: I agree with you.
33:08
SPEAKER_00: It's just that these guys are being psychos.
33:11
SPEAKER_00: And that's good.
33:12
SPEAKER_00: That's good politics.
33:12
SPEAKER_00: You know what I mean?
33:13
SPEAKER_00: That is Sherrod Brown keeping in mind the fact that his constituents fundamentally
33:20
SPEAKER_00: don't agree with me about the influx of immigrants into Springfield,
33:26
SPEAKER_00: Ohio.
33:27
SPEAKER_01: But the analogy is, it's like the same thing as when Republicans say climate change is a hoax.
33:32
SPEAKER_01: The right answer isn't for Democrats to say, no, it's real, and that's why we support a carbon tax.
33:36
SPEAKER_01: It's to say...
33:38
SPEAKER_01: look at these know-nothings and we're going to keep your air and water clean.
33:42
SPEAKER_01: Like that's,
33:44
SPEAKER_01: and like Sherrod Brown,
33:45
SPEAKER_01: like if he wanted to be a little bit more sharp about it,
33:48
SPEAKER_01: he could point out that like the Republican mayor of Springfield is pissed at Trump
33:53
SPEAKER_01: and Vance for this and has criticized them publicly.
33:56
SPEAKER_01: And I forget which officials there are saying, we're not sure if we can support them
34:02
SPEAKER_01: in November.
34:03
SPEAKER_01: I mean, like they're ruining the town.
34:05
SPEAKER_01: They're like, they're making life.
34:06
SPEAKER_00: I mean, I agree.
34:07
SPEAKER_00: We hear it.
34:07
SPEAKER_00: Let's,
34:07
SPEAKER_00: let's,
34:08
SPEAKER_00: let's take a break though,
34:08
SPEAKER_00: because then like,
34:09
SPEAKER_00: I want to talk about,
34:10
SPEAKER_00: um,
34:11
SPEAKER_00: Springfield and like what I actually think.
34:13
SPEAKER_00: Okay.
34:13
SPEAKER_00: Let's do that.
34:14
SPEAKER_01: And what's really going on.
34:15
SPEAKER_01: I have a, I want to sharpen the issue myself.
34:17
SPEAKER_01: So,
34:18
SPEAKER_01: um,
34:19
SPEAKER_01: if you want to hear us fight about this some more,
34:22
SPEAKER_01: uh,
34:22
SPEAKER_01: you can go to politics.fm and upgrade your subscription.