Latest / AST SpaceMobile Podcast / Anpanman - Sentiment Check
Transcript
- 0:06This is the AST Space Mobile podcast.
- 0:11Just basically from the phone, be seamless, regardless of where
- 0:14you are. We don't want the user even to
- 0:16know that it's connected by satellite.
- 0:21Listen, the opportunity that we have is very, very, very large.
- 0:24Large. Everyone, thanks for joining.
- 0:28What an absolutely brutal time. I'll be the first to say it.
- 0:33It's been rough. The stock for AST has been on a
- 0:39downward spiral from the April launch.
- 0:43And you know, obviously sentiment is is turned pretty
- 0:46negative. And yeah, so are we bottoming?
- 0:52Probably. But could we go further?
- 0:54Maybe. But but yeah, I figured I'd fire
- 0:58up a space. I only have actually not too
- 1:01long. I got to go pick up the kids,
- 1:03but I didn't want to just do a sentiment check.
- 1:06I mean, I think I haven't seen so much negativity in quite some
- 1:10time online, which is justified. I understand, you know,
- 1:14obviously investing and This is why investing is hard, right?
- 1:17Especially in single names, if you got to be able to stomach
- 1:22volatility and for things like high growth areas with a high
- 1:28level of beta and uncertainty like space sector, you're seeing
- 1:32that in spades where it's not just ASD.
- 1:35That's down 6.7% today. Let's see Firefly, which I think
- 1:40was up 20% pre market is down down 4.4%, Carmen down 6 1/2%,
- 1:47Intuitive Machines 4.4%, Planet Labs down 6.2%, Rocket Lab down
- 1:534.2%. And yeah, so there's a number of
- 1:57space companies that are are down.
- 1:58And I think it probably has to do with AST to some extent
- 2:04because the company is a proxy, you know, when the stock is
- 2:08down, the sector does tend to to sell off a bit.
- 2:11And I think you've seen other names since the launch kind of
- 2:17come in as well. And so obviously the company is
- 2:20underperformed relative to the rest of the space sector, but
- 2:23but it is a an indication of sentiment or, or heavily weighs
- 2:28on sentiment. And so I think even, you know,
- 2:30while Rocket Lab did, I think it rallied when the Blue Origin
- 2:35second stage failed. Since rallying to the low 90s,
- 2:39it has come off down to 77. So yeah, there's a bit there's
- 2:43like some weird factor stuff going on today.
- 2:46For example, semiconductors, which has been a huge winner,
- 2:49optical components within within hardware has, has done really
- 2:54well. So those names are, are, are
- 2:55doing well today. Some of the quantum names are
- 2:59up. And then looking at nuclear, I
- 3:03mean those names are down. And so, but in space in
- 3:06particular, space is all down today.
- 3:08So yeah, we've got, we're at kind of an interesting point
- 3:13because I think obviously we've got earnings coming up on Monday
- 3:17and we're going to get an update from the company on production
- 3:21and shipping of the Bluebirds. And and so by then, hopefully
- 3:27we'll get a good sense of where we are on that first batch,
- 3:31whether that happens. You know, I think the company
- 3:34we're targeting approximately 30 days.
- 3:36So that puts us about a little over a week after earnings.
- 3:39But they will probably give us some insight and guidance into
- 3:43how that production is going. And, and if shipping those 3
- 3:48satellites is going to happen on time.
- 3:50And then, yeah, we've got launch happening shortly thereafter.
- 3:55And so from what I understand, I think integration into Falcon
- 3:58Nine that will take somewhere around 3 to 4 weeks.
- 4:01And so we could see a launch, as I understand, I think launch
- 4:04manifest is pointing to something in June and then
- 4:10you've got another two batches of three that will likely happen
- 4:14late June or early July and then August.
- 4:17And so, so yeah, there's a lot of things that are going on.
- 4:20And you know what could possibly change sentiment?
- 4:23I think the shipment of that batch is going to be important.
- 4:27And the other thing that I mentioned yesterday is the
- 4:32return to operations for Blue Origin New Glenn, which I
- 4:37believe might happen sooner than the market thinks.
- 4:39I think obviously the skeptics are saying several months.
- 4:42I think looking at president, you're probably you know the,
- 4:47the what, what people are expecting at the aggressive time
- 4:52end of the timeline would be somewhere around 70 days, 7060
- 4:55days. But then I don't know, we're
- 4:58getting some some hints that perhaps Blue Origin is going to
- 5:01get returned to operations for New Glenn sooner than that.
- 5:06And so, so yeah, that's something else to look out for.
- 5:10But but yeah, what what might the company cover?
- 5:13I think obviously in the the quarterly update, it'll be good
- 5:17to hear any progress around production, the cadence
- 5:21production. You know, I think the company I
- 5:24remember catching up with management at launch and you
- 5:29know, we're at this point for staying at production that at
- 5:32some, some point we are going to hockey stick in terms of
- 5:35production. Now when when does that happen?
- 5:37Hopefully near term. But but as we all know,
- 5:41production when trying to create the machine that builds a
- 5:45machine that that takes some time there, there's going to be
- 5:47hiccups along the way. But but yeah, it is interesting.
- 5:50I think the narrative I know with the stock price coming down
- 5:54and sentiment being pretty awful, there are people always
- 5:57looking for, you know, the reasons why the stock price is
- 6:00down. And at least on the the hedge
- 6:05fund side, you know, the short interest has gone up.
- 6:07I think for people who are perhaps like the lazy kind of,
- 6:13you know, hedge funds that are shorting the stock, the
- 6:17narrative is pretty straightforward, right?
- 6:18Like the company Bluebird 7 was not put into proper orbit.
- 6:23So so you had that failure and then production cadence has been
- 6:27delayed and they're going through production hell.
- 6:29Some other what like Tesla went through or any number of
- 6:32companies when you're doing something brand new that hasn't
- 6:34been done before. And then you know, for, for the
- 6:39company that in terms of other things there that have put
- 6:42pressure or change the narrative or sentiment, you know, Rakatin,
- 6:46obviously people forget like we got FCC approval for a full
- 6:49constellation only a few weeks ago.
- 6:53And when that, that was announced, obviously Rakatan who
- 6:56had been planning to sell half their stake beginning in
- 6:59January. And they'd come off the board
- 7:02and we didn't know exactly how much they would sell or when
- 7:06they'd sell. But then they implemented their
- 7:0710B51 plan and indicated that they would sell half of their
- 7:12holdings, of which they are probably 2/3 of the way through
- 7:16that. And be quite honest, like what's
- 7:19Romania is not that not that much.
- 7:22And so that that kind of hit sentiment.
- 7:25And then of course, you know, the Global Star acquisition by
- 7:28Amazon, I think that's been an overhang as well.
- 7:32And you know, so for someone who is from the outside looking in,
- 7:37then you've got this confluence of all these things.
- 7:39Then, you know, if you were a hedge fund and and I guess you
- 7:43know, contemplating shorting, now's probably not a bad time to
- 7:46be short. But as we learned in the past,
- 7:49when you have these ingredients together of people who are
- 7:52tourists, who don't really know the sector.
- 7:54And we've seen this actually for some of our friends and space
- 7:58mob who are in the institutional side.
- 8:02It definitely sounds like there's a ton more activity on
- 8:04short sellers where, for example, the latest or not the
- 8:09latest, but the old rumor that that our satellites won't fit
- 8:13into a SpaceX fairing like that's been going around, which
- 8:17is kind of funny or not kind of funny.
- 8:18It's it's apparently absurd, but but that's been peddled.
- 8:23And then of course, you've got, you know, looking at some of
- 8:28these expert networks, there's been a flurry of activity of, of
- 8:32institutional investors who are connecting due diligence and
- 8:36asking, you know, outside experts or people who work in
- 8:39the industry about the company. Which typically you'll see that
- 8:43when a company is doing really well and people are perhaps
- 8:46contemplating going long or if things are going, you know, the
- 8:49stock price is not doing well and perhaps shorts are trying to
- 8:52gather more ammunition to, to press their position.
- 8:56So, but in terms of set up, like I think with the low implied
- 9:03volatility, the all time high short interest and sentiment
- 9:07being really no really low, I think we got the ingredients for
- 9:11what should be a pretty spectacular rally.
- 9:14I think over the coming weeks and and the summer, especially
- 9:18with all these launches lined up.
- 9:20Obviously like, you know, the company has to get satellites up
- 9:23and you know, will they get to an approximate 45 satellites in
- 9:26orbit that is an aggressive timeline or aggressive target, I
- 9:31think. And, and we've talked about this
- 9:33in the past where it is a reach goal.
- 9:35And if they can get these nine satellites off on Falcon 9 and
- 9:40then resume operations on Blue Origin, New Glen with the
- 9:44ability to launch 6 satellites at a time.
- 9:45And obviously we've already got 6 orbiting the Earth right now,
- 9:49then you, you can see a path to get 45 approximately.
- 9:52But you know, if they get to 40 or if they get to 35 or high
- 9:5630s, is that going to make a big difference?
- 9:59In my opinion, I don't think it will, right?
- 10:01Because I think ultimately what's going to matter the most
- 10:05at the end of the year is the exit velocity of production
- 10:08cadence, right? And so if they're getting to the
- 10:12point where they're confidently producing 6 satellites a month
- 10:16by call it June, July, August, and, and we're able to do that
- 10:21consistently and they actually, you know, fingers crossed they
- 10:24actually raise a raise the number of satellites they were
- 10:27able to produce on a monthly basis, then that's what's really
- 10:30going to matter, right? Because ultimately, if you're
- 10:33able to produce 6 satellites a month, you know that that's a
- 10:38that in, in terms of building out the constellation, that's
- 10:42the number you're really focused on, right?
- 10:44So 6 * 12 that's obviously you know that that's 72, right?
- 10:49And we need, let's see here, you know, we need, we need 45 to 60
- 10:58for decent coverage. And then, you know, beyond that,
- 11:01then you get into improving performance, right?
- 11:04And beyond that, if you're able to get to say, let's see here,
- 11:11if we can bump up from 6 to from 6 to 8 satellites per month,
- 11:16then you're, you're building on an annualized basis 96, right.
- 11:19And then you know, Scott has talked about the possibility or
- 11:23tooling and getting additional 4 space to get up to call it 10
- 11:27satellites a month and that's 120 a year, right?
- 11:30And so the key thing you hear is getting to your production
- 11:33cadence that you know, once, once you're able to consistently
- 11:39produce satellites, test them and get them out the door and
- 11:41obviously get them launched, that's what's going to be the
- 11:45most important thing. And and I think for the company
- 11:47to reiterate 45, approximately 45, they still see that stretch
- 11:51goal as a possibility even with the set back of Bluebird 7 not
- 11:55getting into orbit and Blue Origin obviously on hold for now
- 12:01until the FAA concludes its investigation.
- 12:04But from what I, what I've heard is I think, I think Blue Origin
- 12:10has a very good sense of what the problem the failure was for
- 12:14the stage 2 New Glenn. And so yeah, I think, I think
- 12:18they may return to operation sooner than the market is
- 12:21pricing in. But but yeah, anyway, sentiment
- 12:25sucks. It is what it is, I hope.
- 12:28And no one wants to hear this, of course.
- 12:29But key thing is during times like this, like it's a, it's a
- 12:34stark reminder not to be over leveraged, not to be over your
- 12:37skis. Cause stuff like this can
- 12:38happen, right? Like draw downs where sentiments
- 12:40bad and, and you have a stock underperforming.
- 12:45And this is where like from a sentiment and, or from a mental
- 12:49standpoint, it can really screw with you, right?
- 12:50Because obviously the markets themselves, whether it's S&P,
- 12:54Dow, Russell, they're all up today, NASDAQ and you've got a
- 12:58number of different sectors that have continued to perform even
- 13:02in this uncertainty with Iran. So for example, I was looking at
- 13:07SanDisk, Micron, Western Digital and Seagate and all these other
- 13:12storage and memory companies, which you can, you can bought,
- 13:15you can pay someone to buy these companies a few years ago.
- 13:18But with the advent of the rush for AI and building out data
- 13:23centers, they've done extremely well.
- 13:25And so, yeah, this is what happens in the market.
- 13:28Like some, some sectors become really hot, some sectors become
- 13:31cold space. Overall, I would say is is
- 13:35taking an A pretty decent breather after having a pretty
- 13:39high, a pretty big rally in January on the excitement
- 13:43around, you know, defense spending and of course the
- 13:46SpaceX IPO, which by the way, like that's still happening in
- 13:49the next few weeks. And so it's not as if the
- 13:53interest has gone away from the sector, but but I think some of
- 13:56the momentum and fast money has left the sector and as you know,
- 14:01dribbled into some of these other areas.
- 14:03I mean, even Intel of all companies, where again, you
- 14:06couldn't pay someone to buy Intel.
- 14:07But given the Trump administration's, you know,
- 14:12essential, like government backing and and then, of course,
- 14:16you know, interest from Apple and others to to build their
- 14:19chips at fabs domestically until it's rallied tremendously,
- 14:22right. And so things can change on a
- 14:25dime. And I would just say that, you
- 14:27know, for those people who are, who are upset and you know, are
- 14:32calling for blood and like management, they should be
- 14:34communicating well, we've got earnings on Monday.
- 14:37So that's in, you know, there was some folks saying that
- 14:41management should communicate more.
- 14:43Well, we, we did get PR right after the failure of Bluebird,
- 14:47getting Bluebird 7 getting put into orbit and what I think that
- 14:51was like April 20th. And then we got FCC approval and
- 14:54they put out APR April 20th. But now the company's an acquire
- 14:57period, right? And so they are, they can't say
- 15:01anything until Monday, unless of course, there's like some
- 15:05material news, which there might be in the next few days, but,
- 15:09but we'll find out soon enough. And what I'm looking forward to
- 15:12is update on government contracts.
- 15:16You know, I think we're down the sweet spot of additional work
- 15:19around Golden Dome. Will there be an update around
- 15:22the 1.1 billion of contracted revenue backlog that we have?
- 15:27My guess is there there might be, but who knows.
- 15:32And then, you know, do we get any updates around M&O
- 15:37contracts, you know, different agreements?
- 15:40Yeah, there's a whole host of things to to be updated on.
- 15:44But one other thing I didn't want to mention is that for
- 15:48launch there, there is a, there is and I've talked about this, I
- 15:52think it was yesterday, but there is a wrinkle around SpaceX
- 15:55where because of the way that our multi launch agreement is
- 16:01structured, we actually don't have an ability to disclose that
- 16:04we are flying on SpaceX until closer to launch.
- 16:08And so even if you look at the like the Block one launch and
- 16:14you know, the, the, the announcement of when that was
- 16:16going to happen and then of course, successful launch of the
- 16:18the Block 1 Bluebirds, we don't actually in the graphics we show
- 16:21SpaceX, but we actually don't refer to SpaceX.
- 16:24And I've looked at other companies and some follow
- 16:28similar, similar, you know, they, they have these similar
- 16:32restrictions where they may not be able to talk about SpaceX or
- 16:35if it's a ride share, you can talk about SpaceX being a ride
- 16:37share or ViaSat, which I think is a, is a, you know, old school
- 16:41SpaceX customer. They can actually talk
- 16:43specifically about being on a Falcon 9 Heavy.
- 16:45But yeah, I mean, I think to some of the folks out there who
- 16:50are worried that we don't have SpaceX launches, we have them.
- 16:54They're they're they're on the manifest and we are on the
- 16:58schedule. You can go see it on any number
- 17:01of of sites that follow launch. And so we have two I believe
- 17:08that are already on the schedule and a third one will probably
- 17:11pop up soon. But but yeah, we're, we're only,
- 17:16you know, yes, it's, it sucks it's May 5th, but we're only a
- 17:21few days away from the May earnings update.
- 17:23And then from that point on, only a few days away from the
- 17:26first batch shipment. Unless, you know, that changes
- 17:29unless it gets pulled forward or unless it, you know, gets
- 17:32delayed a little bit either wouldn't surprise me.
- 17:35But yeah, that's kind of where we are.
- 17:37So anyhow, I think it's important for people to take a
- 17:43deep breath. This stuff happens these like
- 17:46highly volatile names, you can have multiple drawdowns like
- 17:50this. I think specifically for AST
- 17:51think we've had and reformed trader kind of how they did this
- 17:57before, but we've had multiple 40 to 50% drawdowns, which if
- 18:01you're a trader, then it can be good, right?
- 18:05Or if you trade things around, it can be good.
- 18:07Or if you're a long term holder, you kind of just ride through
- 18:10it, right? And, and it's just, it's a, it's
- 18:14a feature. It's not a bug.
- 18:16It's just part of investing. And, and I think this is the
- 18:19part where when things are going well and, and, you know, stock
- 18:23prices are going up and your portfolio is at all time highs,
- 18:25which, you know, mine was in January, which was, which was,
- 18:29you know, wonderful. But now I'm back down to call it
- 18:33flat for the year or slightly down.
- 18:37That's OK. Like I've been through this
- 18:38multiple times and I'm prepared for it.
- 18:40And so in my mind, when thinking about, you know, putting things
- 18:46in context where the company, where the company is relative to
- 18:49where it was the year before or the year prior, you know, we
- 18:52have AFCC approval for full consolation.
- 18:56We are now producing Block 2 satellites that are about to be
- 19:00shipped. You know, we're about to launch,
- 19:04you know, go into the full launch campaign, which, you
- 19:06know, I, I've said this multiple times, but it's been delayed, of
- 19:08course for various reasons. But you know, some of the issues
- 19:11that we've come across specifically like stacking
- 19:15that's been solved. And so yeah, it's an exciting
- 19:17time. And we've got, you know, if you,
- 19:20if you are having a tough time mentally, I think it's good to
- 19:24go back to let me see my, the Catalyst tracker that I that I
- 19:28update periodically and just kind of go through that and see
- 19:31where, where we've come and the milestones that we've hit and
- 19:35then things that are coming up, right.
- 19:37So you know, the next three batches of Bluebirds that's
- 19:42basically BB8 through 1011 through 1314 through 16.
- 19:47Those are going to be, you know, launched within June, July,
- 19:52August time frame. Then after that, I think we'll
- 19:54probably see our first full fully loaded Blue Origin new
- 19:57Glen launch. And then you've got, of course,
- 20:01in this quarter probably some updates are on Golden Dome.
- 20:05But yeah, there's, there's quite a few things here which it's
- 20:08pinned on my profile for those that that know or, or I haven't
- 20:14seen it before, actually, you can go through this.
- 20:17But anyway, yeah, it's a crummy time.
- 20:20Don't get, you know, there's no, there's no two ways about it,
- 20:24not to trigger coat anything. But for those that have, you
- 20:27know, invested in the company for multiple years, this is just
- 20:31part of the process. And, and you know, I've, I've
- 20:34said in my career, the the biggest wins that I've ever had
- 20:37are the ones that have tested my resolve the most.
- 20:39And that always has and confuses to hold true.
- 20:44But I guess on a separate note, something interesting, there is
- 20:48an article that's coming out, coming out on Bloomberg.
- 20:49I haven't read it. They they independently went to
- 20:53various members of Space Mob and and interviewed us and I think
- 20:57it'll be an interesting article. Hopefully.
- 21:00I'm not sure how it's going to paint all this if we're like
- 21:02whack jobs are crazy, but it is a truly as all of you know,
- 21:06because you've been part of it. It's been a very unique story
- 21:09and community, but I think that articles coming out this this
- 21:12Friday, May 8th. So keep an eye out for it.
- 21:16The reason why I know is that the, the journalist too, who
- 21:19interviewed various people reached out to me to make sure
- 21:23from a Fact Check perspective that some of the things that
- 21:26they, they're going to put in the article, which again, I
- 21:28didn't read the whole thing. I, I haven't seen the article,
- 21:30but they gave me a few points to make sure that what they're
- 21:33putting in is accurate. And so, so that'll be
- 21:37interesting. Of course, I would have rather
- 21:40this article come out, you know, when stock was at 100 or 120
- 21:44versus 64. But then again, it goes back to
- 21:48that old meme, like once there's more awareness out there and
- 21:50people read about ASD space Mobile and, and learn about this
- 21:56community. You know, it's like that meme
- 21:59where people are kicking themselves that they didn't buy
- 22:01it when the stock's at 1:30. But then of course when it goes
- 22:05to like 63, no one wants to touch it.
- 22:08And they're like, aha, I told you so.
- 22:09And then of course when the stock goes to 200 or 300, they,
- 22:12they have regret again. And so perhaps that dynamic is
- 22:16going to play itself out once again, which, you know, it, it
- 22:20happens every time with AST like we have this, we go into this
- 22:23like big draw down, people feel awful, sentiments bad, you know,
- 22:28folks are calling for the heads of management.
- 22:31And then lo and behold, you know, some positive catalyst
- 22:34come out and the company executes and then we reach an
- 22:37all time high once again and, you know, reach our previous all
- 22:41time high. But anyway, yeah, I just wanted
- 22:44to just do a quick space and just say that sentiment.
- 22:49It sucks and everybody's feeling bad, but this is part of
- 22:53investing that you take the good with the bad.
- 22:55And it sucks to see, you know, SanDisk hitting all time highs.
- 23:01I should have bought that name instead of this name.
- 23:02But but yeah, that's, that's investing.
- 23:05It's like the the the the old grocery store analogy where you
- 23:12you try it, you see a line that's moving faster and you can
- 23:14you switch lines and then the line that you just left is all
- 23:16of a sudden moving way faster. And so, yeah, it's important to
- 23:21know what you own, right? And so this is my primary
- 23:23investment. I have the highest confidence in
- 23:26it. And I think it has, you know,
- 23:28AST space mobile has a tremendous amount of upside.
- 23:30And so this is where I made my bed.
- 23:33So anyway, I've got to go pick up the kids from school.
- 23:36So hope everyone is doing OK and yeah, on days like this,
- 23:41sometimes it's good to go to the go out to the yard, do your yard
- 23:45work that you've been putting off for a long time.
- 23:47Go hang out with your kids, go touch grass, go watch a movie or
- 23:50something. But yeah, and make sure that
- 23:54you're not on margin because that's being on margin works on
- 23:58yourself is the quickest way to Financial Rd.
- 24:00So with that, Allen's base and we'll catch up again soon.
- 24:04Thanks everyone. Thanks for listening to the AM
- 24:08AST Space Mobile Podcast. If you enjoyed this episode and
- 24:11you'd like to help support the podcast, please share it with
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- 24:23Thanks again and I'll see you next time.
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