Latest / Stephanomics / Voternomics LIVE: Europe's Rightward Shift, Macron's Snap Election, and Tory Party Train Wreck

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Voternomics LIVE: Europe's Rightward Shift, Macron's Snap Election, and Tory Party Train Wreck · Stephanomics

0:03
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News.
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Speaker 2: Welcome to this very special edition, live edition of voter Nomics,
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Speaker 2: where politics and markets collide. This year, as we all know,
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Speaker 2: voters around the world have the capacity to turn markets,
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Speaker 2: countries and economies like never before. I'm Stephanie Flanders, head
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Speaker 2: of Economics and Government here at Bloomberg.
0:38
Speaker 3: I'm Allegra Stratton.
0:39
Speaker 1: I write the readout and I used to be in government.
0:43
Speaker 3: Before that, I was on TV.
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Speaker 4: I'm Adrian Wooldridge. I'm Global Opinion columnists for Bloomberg Opinion.
0:50
Speaker 5: I'm a guest, and I'm the editor at Bloomberg.
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Speaker 2: So we have brought in our special guests also our
0:59
Speaker 2: boss for this event, and I guess by accident or
1:03
Speaker 2: by design, we've ended up doing it at the end
1:05
Speaker 2: of a well maybe another week coming up, but at
1:08
Speaker 2: the end of a pretty incredible week in voter nomics land.
1:12
Speaker 2: Pre minster Rishi Sunak's inexplicable decision to skip a big
1:17
Speaker 2: chunk of the D Day commemorations last week, despite the
1:21
Speaker 2: best efforts of his spin doctors, still taking up a
1:24
Speaker 2: lot of discussion. Although I guess it has distracted us
1:27
Speaker 2: from what was previously his most inexplicable decision, which was
1:29
Speaker 2: to call the election in the first place. But then
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Speaker 2: we have just in the last twenty four hours, French
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Speaker 2: President Emmanuel Macrol, not to be outdone, has decided that
1:39
Speaker 2: he too wants to call a snap election that he
1:41
Speaker 2: doesn't need to call when he's heavily behind in the polls.
1:45
Speaker 2: That in response to some pretty interesting European election results.
1:51
Speaker 2: The markets have responded pretty sharply this morning, particularly in
1:56
Speaker 2: the French markets. But I think we've got plenty more
2:00
Speaker 2: to discuss around those elections, which you know, in some
2:04
Speaker 2: ways followed what people had thought, but I think it's
2:06
Speaker 2: not as clear a picture as you know, not a
2:08
Speaker 2: completely clear picture, and of course we have that stunning
2:12
Speaker 2: gamble by President Macrol. We obviously have to talk about
2:15
Speaker 2: the US because it's an impossi impossible not to, although
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Speaker 2: that's still many months away, and we luckily have Peggy Collins,
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Speaker 2: Washington Bureau Chief to here to talk a bit about that,
2:26
Speaker 2: and we have the Queen of Bloomberg Television, Francs Lacoit,
2:30
Speaker 2: to help talk through the European results. But I guess
2:33
Speaker 2: we have to start with this all Star cast that
2:36
Speaker 2: we already have we should start with the UK and Allegra,
2:41
Speaker 2: you sort of hinted to it, but you were a
2:45
Speaker 2: former advisor to Richie Sunac mind and you know we
2:56
Speaker 2: you know you also still have your family still have
2:58
Speaker 2: soall we say close connections to to Richie's decisions. So
3:02
Speaker 2: I mean just the outside to the outside eye, it
3:05
Speaker 2: just doesn't seem like it's going that well.
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Speaker 1: So what you're going to notice is that Stephanie teases
3:09
Speaker 1: me on voteronomics, doesn't she tess slash reserves quite tough questions.
3:14
Speaker 1: I think he has had there was last week in
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Speaker 1: the last week, sorry, the current Prime Minister has had
3:23
Speaker 1: a had had a good outing and had a really
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Speaker 1: bad outing. D Day was an incredibly damaging episode for him.
3:31
Speaker 1: But I think the TV debate was a pretty good
3:34
Speaker 1: outing for him. And it just goes to show, you know,
3:37
Speaker 1: frontline politics is a roller coaster and is is incredibly tough.
3:43
Speaker 1: And I think the two things are that they are
3:45
Speaker 1: interesting and they are linked, which is there. They are
3:48
Speaker 1: resetting what they wanted to do, which is reset the
3:50
Speaker 1: agenda to talk about tax and they did it fairly effectively. Yes,
3:54
Speaker 1: there was a great big barney about the veracity of
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Speaker 1: the claim which they're you know, leading into and they're enjoying,
4:00
Speaker 1: you know, wanting to claim of a two thousand pound
4:03
Speaker 1: which they've you know, pumped out over four years, over
4:05
Speaker 1: four years, which they've pumped out more material on over
4:08
Speaker 1: the last few days. But then the decision to come
4:11
Speaker 1: back from D day early was was was was really
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Speaker 1: regretful you've seen and heard, which she's soon apologize profusely
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Speaker 1: indeed again today I think the only thing that is
4:22
Speaker 1: perhaps a lost I think sometimes in the sort of
4:27
Speaker 1: row about it is having been in government, it is
4:30
Speaker 1: quite incredible to get that sort of the busyness of
4:33
Speaker 1: you know, you've got an itinery and not saying by
4:35
Speaker 1: the way this means that it was it was it
4:38
Speaker 1: was okay for him to he should you know, he's
4:39
Speaker 1: a leader and he should have he should have really
4:41
Speaker 1: stress tested the decision.
4:43
Speaker 3: But you get an itinerary, you'll tell.
4:44
Speaker 1: To go to the airport at a certain time, there
4:45
Speaker 1: is a car, you get pushed into it. And I
4:49
Speaker 1: think you know, if and when kits Dharma becomes becomes
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Speaker 1: the next Prime minister, he will have some moments like
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Speaker 1: these right there are there's a lot about government that is,
4:57
Speaker 1: you know, too too busy, too far for any human
5:00
Speaker 1: being to process adequately. But that doesn't mean that Rishie
5:05
Speaker 1: shouldn't have said, hold on a second, there's a big
5:06
Speaker 1: event going on, and I can see Biden flying in,
5:08
Speaker 1: and shouldn't I be there.
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Speaker 4: I've been trying to explain to myself how he came
5:12
Speaker 4: to make this rather catastrophic decision, and I had two explanations.
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Speaker 4: One is that he is a Wykamist, and Wickimists just
5:19
Speaker 4: don't understand this sort of thing, and you have to
5:22
Speaker 4: leave the government of the country to The second explanation
5:27
Speaker 4: is that he's too assiduous. A student of Walter Badgert.
5:30
Speaker 4: Walter Badgett was the great nineteenth century constitutionalists and editor
5:34
Speaker 4: of The Economist, who argued that there are two branches
5:36
Speaker 4: of British government, the dignified branch and the efficient branch.
5:40
Speaker 4: And the dignified branch is the branch that the monarchy occupies,
5:43
Speaker 4: and the efficient branch is the branch that sort of
5:45
Speaker 4: technocrats do and they take their real serious decisions. And
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Speaker 4: I think he's also always been a person who thinks
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Speaker 4: that government is about delivering things efficiently, doing spreadsheet style things.
5:57
Speaker 4: He's never liked the ceremonial side.
6:00
Speaker 1: Up to a point, and that a large part of
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Speaker 1: how you describe Britshi is fair. But he also does
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Speaker 1: have this quite a powerful sense of national service, of
6:10
Speaker 1: service and of national service, but the services of a different.
6:15
Speaker 3: Sort as well.
6:16
Speaker 1: And also I mean he himself has done a lot
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Speaker 1: for veterans, and you know, the idea just flip it right.
6:23
Speaker 1: This is always the helpful way to look at these things.
6:25
Speaker 1: If you say, if you say, you know, do you
6:27
Speaker 1: want to sort of snub eight year old you know,
6:30
Speaker 1: one hundred year old d Day?
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Speaker 3: You know, do you here's no way he.
6:33
Speaker 2: Would have to give you some credit allegroate. I mean,
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Speaker 2: after Thursday afternoon there was that odd thing where and
6:41
Speaker 2: we should we should move on from this quite soon,
6:43
Speaker 2: because I know people have heard a lot about this,
6:45
Speaker 2: but you know, there was interestingly that the press corps
6:48
Speaker 2: by and large had sort of it had gone without
6:52
Speaker 2: notice to some degree, or people had not really considered
6:54
Speaker 2: it to be a big problem potentially until they saw
6:57
Speaker 2: the photos. But I did notice, I mean the readout
7:00
Speaker 2: that the daily news letter we actually had pointed it out.
7:03
Speaker 2: And I think we're the first to really sort of
7:05
Speaker 2: make an argument of it and say this seems a
7:08
Speaker 2: bit odd, not saying that we you know, quite predicted
7:11
Speaker 2: how large it would be, but I mean that you
7:13
Speaker 2: sort of can't get, I quite slightly get the sense
7:15
Speaker 2: that if you've been sitting in the room, you would
7:16
Speaker 2: have said, isn't this a bit weird?
7:19
Speaker 3: No?
7:19
Speaker 1: No, yeah, because for all the reasons everyone here you know,
7:23
Speaker 1: will be familiar with.
7:24
Speaker 3: But it is.
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Speaker 1: Look, he's building a campaign based on appealing attracting a
7:31
Speaker 1: certain demographic.
7:32
Speaker 3: Older demographic though by.
7:34
Speaker 1: The way, younger people would be, as you know, upset
7:37
Speaker 1: by decision to come back from D Day, but you know,
7:39
Speaker 1: strategically make any sense.
7:41
Speaker 3: But also it's just who he is. He's a respectful
7:43
Speaker 3: guy right age.
7:45
Speaker 2: When you just to sort of go off for what
7:47
Speaker 2: something that Allegra said, she said, obviously the goal of
7:50
Speaker 2: the week and to some extent even calling the campaign,
7:52
Speaker 2: calling the election, was to reset the ground and to
7:58
Speaker 2: change the terms of the debate. Yes, I mean clearly
8:00
Speaker 2: there is someone who's done that in the last week
8:02
Speaker 2: outside of the D Day discussion, and that is Nigel for.
8:05
Speaker 4: Us, Yes, and I think what's happened in this campaign
8:07
Speaker 4: is a very very dark and unpleasant man has put
8:12
Speaker 4: himself right at the center of it, and he has
8:15
Speaker 4: completely changed to the tenor of the campaign. He is
8:17
Speaker 4: attracting votes from the right of the Conservative Party. He
8:21
Speaker 4: may well win a seat, and as a relative of
8:24
Speaker 4: winning that seat, he may be central to the reconstruction,
8:28
Speaker 4: the recombination of the right after the elections. That he
8:32
Speaker 4: is a very very bad man who's taken Britain wants
8:34
Speaker 4: to take Britain in very very dark directions.
8:36
Speaker 2: I think we talked a bit about this last week
8:39
Speaker 2: on the podcast, but do you think that we will
8:42
Speaker 2: quite soon see them the Reform overtake the Conservatives in
8:46
Speaker 2: the polls and will that be Will that be a
8:48
Speaker 2: signal moment for many in the time.
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Speaker 4: I think if Reform overtakes the Conservatives in a sustained way,
8:55
Speaker 4: that is a very important moment in British politics. Already,
8:57
Speaker 4: they have overtaken the Conservatives a lot of Red Wall
9:00
Speaker 4: seats and that's beginning to have impact. We have Suella
9:04
Speaker 4: Bravman saying that you know, there isn't really a cigarette
9:07
Speaker 4: paper between her and Nigel Farage, and we have the
9:13
Speaker 4: Reform Party taking potentially a lot of money the Tory Party.
9:17
Speaker 4: One of the many odd things about this election is
9:19
Speaker 4: the Tory Party hasn't got very much money. It's I
9:23
Speaker 4: think it's pulled. It's spending on social as it's called,
9:26
Speaker 4: because they haven't got enough enough money to spend on it.
9:29
Speaker 4: And we could see arage in the Reform Party out
9:31
Speaker 4: spending the tourist so I can see a situation in
9:34
Speaker 4: which they really accelerate.
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Speaker 6: John.
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Speaker 2: You are because you're so important and you get to
9:39
Speaker 2: sort of flit around the world, but particularly you're spending
9:41
Speaker 2: quite a lot of time in the US. You've been
9:45
Speaker 2: there and a range of other places in the last
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Speaker 2: week or so. How much is any of this discussion
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Speaker 2: changing the way people look at the election, or how
9:57
Speaker 2: indeed is the election coming across the people?
9:59
Speaker 5: I think I think if you look, if you look
10:01
Speaker 5: at it from outside, and you're right, I've been in
10:03
Speaker 5: Europe and US for the past ten days, but particularly
10:07
Speaker 5: from that angle, I think they people people take several
10:10
Speaker 5: things away. Number one is immigration, and that's because exactly
10:14
Speaker 5: the same problems that they're seeing this is the kind
10:17
Speaker 5: of immigration election they detect, and they think the same
10:21
Speaker 5: kind of things are coming in America and you're already
10:23
Speaker 5: seeing the European elections. I think the second thing is
10:27
Speaker 5: just the straightforward political horse race. It's very odd, especially
10:31
Speaker 5: in America, to think of someone who who calls an
10:34
Speaker 5: election when they're twenty points behind. What's what's behind that?
10:36
Speaker 5: That has broken through into the American audience far more
10:40
Speaker 5: than the D Day thing, which, to be honest, they
10:43
Speaker 5: really didn't see. They just saw pictures of Biden looking
10:46
Speaker 5: a bit dodgery. And the last thing, which actually is
10:49
Speaker 5: I think interesting, and I think I've heard this more
10:52
Speaker 5: in America than Europe paradoxcy, is Brexit. They are every
10:57
Speaker 5: American business person you talk took the big thing which
11:01
Speaker 5: has affected the way we look at Britain is Brexit.
11:05
Speaker 5: Why aren't you talking about that? Why isn't that the
11:08
Speaker 5: big subject of the campaign. And if you ask them,
11:11
Speaker 5: you know, you point out the Tories and trouble, they
11:14
Speaker 5: assume that is because of Brexit. And a lot of
11:16
Speaker 5: these are people who have very little to no admiration for.
11:21
Speaker 6: The European Union.
11:22
Speaker 5: They're not in that way, They're just looking at it
11:25
Speaker 5: in a pragmatic way. So this country took this momentous
11:28
Speaker 5: decision which by virtually every method. I'm not trying to
11:32
Speaker 5: refight that battle, but by every every conceivable thing they
11:36
Speaker 5: can see it has not worked. Why isn't that the
11:39
Speaker 5: main thing? So there's a weird way whereby the people
11:42
Speaker 5: outside in some ways are looking on us sort of
11:46
Speaker 5: saying we're avoiding the elephant in the room in a
11:49
Speaker 5: way that we might be Adrian all.
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Speaker 2: We're going to carry on ignoring it, aren't we.
11:55
Speaker 4: Briefly, well, strangely the lib Dems, who would have thought
11:58
Speaker 4: would be one party that we should shouting about this
12:01
Speaker 4: and now so they're not going to, you know, campaign
12:03
Speaker 4: on taking Britain back into the to the EU. And
12:05
Speaker 4: the Labor Party has got an obvious reason not to
12:08
Speaker 4: not to talk about it. I was at an event
12:09
Speaker 4: with a senior Labor person who was talking on and
12:13
Speaker 4: on and on. He said, Brexit has been an absolute disaster.
12:16
Speaker 4: It's cause all this trouble to Tori is Orige is
12:18
Speaker 4: how can they have done something so stupid? So I said,
12:20
Speaker 4: so you're going to take us back into the EU?
12:22
Speaker 3: Are you?
12:22
Speaker 4: And he suddenly reversed that we can't reltigate that. So
12:26
Speaker 4: they're it caught in a very peculiar bind that they
12:28
Speaker 4: think it was a disaster, but don't want to don't
12:30
Speaker 4: want to reverse it.
12:32
Speaker 2: There's no appetite.
12:33
Speaker 1: No, I mean, I was just going to pick something
12:36
Speaker 1: up that our boss. It's just I'm not sure it
12:40
Speaker 1: is an immigration election. I mean, Nijera Farage would like
12:43
Speaker 1: it to be an immigration election.
12:45
Speaker 6: And and.
12:47
Speaker 1: But actually, well what is what is it as an election?
12:50
Speaker 1: It's a good question because it sort of each week
12:52
Speaker 1: has a different theme, and actually there isn't one clear
12:55
Speaker 1: kind of this is just the unanswerable big boulder that
12:58
Speaker 1: everybody has to pick up. It's you know, one week
13:00
Speaker 1: was tax and really was big tax last week, right.
13:04
Speaker 5: I would be fair to say yeah to the two
13:06
Speaker 5: thousand pounds did seem to break through a bit because people,
13:09
Speaker 5: I think people outside, especially business people, had taken on
13:13
Speaker 5: board the idea that Starmer was not going to be
13:15
Speaker 5: a big change, that he wouldn't that there might be
13:18
Speaker 5: some changes in the margin. But suddenly the idea of
13:20
Speaker 5: people paying two thousand pounds more that did that was
13:23
Speaker 5: one thing which did get through. Perhaps I would argue,
13:26
Speaker 5: perhaps even more than the Dday thing.
13:28
Speaker 4: It's an election without a theme, but it's also an
13:30
Speaker 4: election without a promise. I mean nineteen eighty seven, nineteen
13:33
Speaker 4: ninety seven, everybody is incredibly optimistic about New Labor doing
13:37
Speaker 4: lots of new and exciting things. I mean, we're just
13:40
Speaker 4: saying about Starmer, well, he's not going to be quite
13:43
Speaker 4: as bad as this awful lot that we've got, so
13:45
Speaker 4: let's vote for it.
13:46
Speaker 2: But is the theme going to be that we're seeing
13:48
Speaker 2: the disintegration of the Conservative Party and all of what
13:51
Speaker 2: we thought would play out on the other side of
13:53
Speaker 2: a late victory actually playing out rather sooner. Is that
13:57
Speaker 2: what we had a hint of from the last So.
13:59
Speaker 4: You think so, I don't think so you go first, Well, no,
14:02
Speaker 4: I think I think the Tory Party is clearly falling apart.
14:05
Speaker 4: I think when you have a situation. In nineteen eighty three,
14:09
Speaker 4: the Labor Party called an emergency press conference and said,
14:14
Speaker 4: the rumors you're hearing are not true. Michael Foote is
14:17
Speaker 4: still our candidate, and there's almost full confidence as a
14:22
Speaker 4: full confidence, and there's almost a sense that that is happening.
14:24
Speaker 4: That you know, things have got so bad that there
14:26
Speaker 4: was a period in which people thought that the Reason
14:29
Speaker 4: might actually pull out of this thing, and the Tory
14:31
Speaker 4: Party had to reassure the country that you won't. So
14:35
Speaker 4: that's a pretty bad situation to me. It's the party
14:38
Speaker 4: that's falling apart.
14:39
Speaker 2: And there's one result of that. We were just talking
14:41
Speaker 2: about this earlier, that the actual on the night the
14:46
Speaker 2: results actually suddenly become much more interesting. I mean, of
14:49
Speaker 2: course there'll be the sort of one assumed the size
14:52
Speaker 2: of the Labor victory, but actually is what is left
14:55
Speaker 2: in Parliament is now suddenly rather up for grabs. So
14:58
Speaker 2: many things get mashed by the fact that reform is.
15:02
Speaker 4: You could get a reverse imagine eighty three in which
15:04
Speaker 4: you know, at a party doesn't well in the polls
15:07
Speaker 4: but doesn't get any seats like that, I mean, the
15:09
Speaker 4: tourists could hold up but still which.
15:11
Speaker 2: Still happened at twenty fifteen as well.
15:13
Speaker 1: But look, you look, you're right, and what we've seen
15:15
Speaker 1: today is Sweller Bratherman as of the traps, you know,
15:18
Speaker 1: quickly wanting to you know, stand Schulz shoulder with Farage
15:21
Speaker 1: and so on, and that the optics of that, I get, look,
15:25
Speaker 1: may make it look like it's sort of already a
15:27
Speaker 1: done deal, that there'll be some stitch up and so on,
15:29
Speaker 1: But the reality of it, to your point stuff which
15:32
Speaker 1: is totally right, is that it's all about the numbers.
15:36
Speaker 1: Who you know what the numbers are. And by the way,
15:39
Speaker 1: I've covered enough elections so we all to know that.
15:42
Speaker 1: And I know this sounds, you know, sort of spin
15:44
Speaker 1: doctory ish, but.
15:45
Speaker 3: That you know, we don't.
15:48
Speaker 1: So much can happen in three weeks. So much can
15:50
Speaker 1: happen in three weeks. You had Nick Clegg riding high
15:52
Speaker 1: in that TV debate and then the numbers were not
15:54
Speaker 1: at all what he thought would be. Anyway, we don't know,
15:56
Speaker 1: so it's slightly foolish to even sort of go there.
15:59
Speaker 3: But if the opinion.
16:00
Speaker 1: Polls now are what you know are in any are right,
16:05
Speaker 1: then of course it is. It is an existential crisis
16:08
Speaker 1: for the Conservative Party.
16:10
Speaker 3: The question then becomes what.
16:12
Speaker 1: Actually you know which is the dominant faction, whether there's
16:15
Speaker 1: a number of factions or whether it's actually you.
16:17
Speaker 2: Know, which is also completely unclear, and it's hard.
16:20
Speaker 3: To nobody knows. Nobody knows.
16:21
Speaker 1: So Suella Brotherhaman might be, you know, quickly quickly trying
16:25
Speaker 1: to kind of, you know, be Nigel Farash's best mate,
16:27
Speaker 1: but actually a there will be other fact, there'll be
16:29
Speaker 1: one nation Tories who will not be okay with that
16:32
Speaker 1: happening to the Conservative Party. But also within that sort
16:35
Speaker 1: of world that Sella occupies, there are people with different
16:38
Speaker 1: a different view, which is, if I'm going to take
16:41
Speaker 1: over this Conservative Party.
16:42
Speaker 3: I'm not going to give it to him. I'm going
16:44
Speaker 3: to take it over.
16:44
Speaker 1: So you've got it's just yes, Suella, and the pictures
16:48
Speaker 1: and everything she said today suggests that you know, they're
16:50
Speaker 1: getting very much ahead of themselves. But I think it's
16:53
Speaker 1: just that I think they're getting ahead of themselves. We
16:55
Speaker 1: don't know the exact complexion of the result.
16:57
Speaker 5: That's quite an interesting counterpoint is you can have the
17:00
Speaker 5: British election with at the moment I think we all
17:03
Speaker 5: agree a likely Tory defeat. Almost straight afterwards you're going
17:06
Speaker 5: to have the Trump Convention. And if you look at
17:11
Speaker 5: conservatism generally, when you said is conservatism in trouble, you
17:14
Speaker 5: have two different versions. You might have it find it
17:16
Speaker 5: being tranced at the ballot box here in one way,
17:21
Speaker 5: but in America you might find a man appearing who
17:24
Speaker 5: in many ways suddenly when Adre and I used to
17:26
Speaker 5: write about it, that version, whatever Trump stands for, many
17:30
Speaker 5: people would not have seen that as remotely compatible with
17:34
Speaker 5: say Ronald Reagan or on virtually every single.
17:36
Speaker 2: Issue, well as befits our grand leader. You have given
17:40
Speaker 2: me a magisterial of a wise and meaningful segue. We
17:49
Speaker 2: can take a breath and think about the US, because
17:53
Speaker 2: I think it is now we should we should have it,
17:54
Speaker 2: think about the US. After that seamless transition, we are delighted.
18:10
Speaker 2: I should probably those of you who are listening to
18:13
Speaker 2: paint the scene briefly. We are in the Bloomberg sort
18:16
Speaker 2: of premium events space on the seventh floor of our
18:21
Speaker 2: equally premium headquarters in the city of London, nestled between
18:26
Speaker 2: the Bank of England and Callon Street Tube Saint Paul's
18:32
Speaker 2: nice visita of the SIMT Paul's. But Peggy Collins, Margaret Collins,
18:36
Speaker 2: we have visiting from Washington. She's our Washington Bureau chief
18:39
Speaker 2: and indeed runs all the economics and government coverage in
18:43
Speaker 2: the US. Peggy. It's funny because I think we've already
18:48
Speaker 2: heard a bit of this. You know, when Europeans and
18:50
Speaker 2: Brits certainly looking at the US election kind of mesmerized
18:53
Speaker 2: by it, and they see all the worries around President
18:57
Speaker 2: Biden's age, they see any number of worries and sort
19:01
Speaker 2: of perplexedness about Donald Trump, will you know, the convictions,
19:08
Speaker 2: the trials, everything else. But actually, if you're in America,
19:13
Speaker 2: it feels a bit more similar to some of the
19:15
Speaker 2: forces that were seeing driving the European and the UK elections.
19:19
Speaker 2: A lot of the debate is around immigration, a lot
19:23
Speaker 2: of it is about inflation and the economy.
19:26
Speaker 7: That's right, as Johnald was just saying, immigration has become
19:29
Speaker 7: a theme here in your election, but it really has
19:32
Speaker 7: become a big theme in the US. Really at the
19:35
Speaker 7: start of this year, we started to see in our
19:37
Speaker 7: reporting when we were in Iowa for the primaries in
19:40
Speaker 7: New Hampshire for the primaris.
19:42
Speaker 8: When we were.
19:42
Speaker 7: Talking to people, Iowa was in the middle of the country,
19:45
Speaker 7: New Hampshire's at the northern border, immigration and border security
19:49
Speaker 7: were coming up time and time again when we were
19:51
Speaker 7: asking voters.
19:52
Speaker 8: What they were thinking about.
19:54
Speaker 7: And in March I actually traveled to the Texas border
19:57
Speaker 7: because I wanted to make sure that I understood the
19:59
Speaker 7: perspective of people there to inform our coverage going into.
20:03
Speaker 8: The election this year.
20:04
Speaker 7: So as Stephanie saying, immigration has become a huge theme
20:08
Speaker 7: in this election, in part because the Texas governor did
20:11
Speaker 7: start bussing some of the migrants that were coming across
20:14
Speaker 7: the southern border to bluer states like Chicago and New York,
20:17
Speaker 7: and it did change some of the dynamic of who
20:20
Speaker 7: was caring about it and why I think the Biden
20:23
Speaker 7: administration is in a tough spot when it comes to
20:25
Speaker 7: immigration and border security, in large part because he's the
20:29
Speaker 7: president is quite dependent on Congress for funding and legislation
20:33
Speaker 7: to get some of the bigger changes done.
20:36
Speaker 8: And so he is in a tough spot there.
20:38
Speaker 7: The other thing is is that former President Trump has
20:41
Speaker 7: really tied immigration and border security to national security. So
20:45
Speaker 7: that's in large part why you see a lot of
20:47
Speaker 7: the Republicans saying they won't support funding for Ukraine, for example,
20:52
Speaker 7: unless there's equivalent funding put into border security. So I
20:56
Speaker 7: think on both sides there's a lot of rhetoric. And then,
20:58
Speaker 7: as Stephanie mentioned, the other big theme that comes up
21:01
Speaker 7: when we talked to voters and when we do our
21:03
Speaker 7: swing state pole in seven of the most competitive states
21:05
Speaker 7: in the US, which we've been doing since October of
21:08
Speaker 7: last year, is the economy. And when I say the economy,
21:11
Speaker 7: what I mean, is the cost of living, and this
21:15
Speaker 7: year that's really been centered around housing and energy costs,
21:19
Speaker 7: utility costs as well as gas costs or I guess
21:21
Speaker 7: you would say petro costs here, and really the cost
21:26
Speaker 7: of living and also inflation.
21:29
Speaker 8: Really, you know, people are very.
21:30
Speaker 7: Focused on is there spending power the same as it
21:34
Speaker 7: was maybe four years ago.
21:36
Speaker 1: Peggy, has it gone into a new phase the election
21:38
Speaker 1: at the moment?
21:40
Speaker 7: You know, it's interesting, like only in the past few
21:42
Speaker 7: weeks have I really felt like we've had a next
21:44
Speaker 7: chapter start. And it's for two main reasons. The Trump
21:48
Speaker 7: trial in New York changed the way that Trump could campaign.
21:51
Speaker 8: He was in the courtroom in New York and.
21:53
Speaker 7: Required to be for three out of the five days
21:56
Speaker 7: of a week.
21:56
Speaker 8: So that's meant that he.
21:57
Speaker 7: Had to do a lot of his campaign rallies of
22:00
Speaker 7: sorts and places like the Bronx in New York where
22:03
Speaker 7: the Yankees play I'm a Yankees fan, had to get
22:05
Speaker 7: that in there. But once the trial was completed and
22:10
Speaker 7: he was found guilty on all thirty four accounts, as
22:13
Speaker 7: we all probably know, he has been able to campaign
22:16
Speaker 7: again in some of the battleground states. So just this weekend,
22:19
Speaker 7: he went to Las Vegas and started talking to people
22:22
Speaker 7: there about floating some ideas around not taxing tips, for example,
22:27
Speaker 7: for waitresses and service workers there, and that was an
22:30
Speaker 7: indication that he has really focused on getting more workers
22:33
Speaker 7: and service workers in places like Las Vegas that were
22:36
Speaker 7: hit hardest in the pandemic to pay attention to his message.
22:40
Speaker 7: So that's something. And the other thing that changed in
22:42
Speaker 7: this next chapter is the fact that after the conviction result,
22:48
Speaker 7: Trump gathered a lot of money right out of the
22:51
Speaker 7: gate with his fundraising over fifty million right in the
22:54
Speaker 7: first few days after that, and up until this point
22:57
Speaker 7: Biden has had a huge advantage when it comes to
22:59
Speaker 7: CAP donations. We'll get some more information next week in
23:03
Speaker 7: terms of data on how close this gap is now,
23:06
Speaker 7: but it is closing.
23:08
Speaker 2: As a result, Piggie, it comes and goes the focus
23:11
Speaker 2: on Biden's age and his strength levels, shall we say.
23:17
Speaker 2: And there was a Wall Street journal piece that have
23:19
Speaker 2: got a lot of attention in the last week that
23:21
Speaker 2: was sort of claiming to be based on certain reporting.
23:24
Speaker 2: I think it's been somewhat discredited by other reporting, like
23:27
Speaker 2: where those quotes were coming from, but is doing a
23:31
Speaker 2: lot of travel last week and this week. Do you
23:34
Speaker 2: expect that to be again a focus.
23:37
Speaker 3: I do.
23:38
Speaker 7: It's very much so scrutinized everywhere he goes. Really in
23:41
Speaker 7: terms of his endurance levels, we did see an uptick
23:45
Speaker 7: in people's perceptions of his age right after the State
23:47
Speaker 7: of the Union.
23:48
Speaker 8: He seemed to get some positive remarks on that.
23:51
Speaker 7: I have seen Trump at rallies as well, and he
23:54
Speaker 7: does have a lot of endurance and energy there. So
23:56
Speaker 7: one of the things that's coming up at the end
23:58
Speaker 7: of this month, which will be a tell I'd love
24:01
Speaker 7: to hear your thoughts on this too, John, would be
24:03
Speaker 7: the debate that's coming up. The first debate between Biden
24:06
Speaker 7: and Trump will be at the end of June, and
24:08
Speaker 7: that will be something I think people will be looking
24:10
Speaker 7: at in terms of.
24:11
Speaker 4: Eight I cannot ask you a sort of rudimentary question.
24:14
Speaker 4: America is a big country with a lot of people
24:16
Speaker 4: in it, and he's got quite a lot of talent.
24:19
Speaker 4: How did you end up with these two candidates?
24:22
Speaker 2: It's very old.
24:24
Speaker 9: Well, it's something that we often think about a lot,
24:26
Speaker 9: both as reporters and Americans, and our colleague Josh Green,
24:30
Speaker 9: who's a fabulous BusinessWeek writer, did a story with our
24:34
Speaker 9: reporter Nancy Cook last year that coined the phrase the
24:37
Speaker 9: double haters, which is a lot of people were not
24:41
Speaker 9: happy with either candidate, and so you do get the
24:44
Speaker 9: sense that a lot of Americans were hoping that it
24:47
Speaker 9: would not necessarily come down to these two candidates.
24:50
Speaker 7: But I think a lot of it has to do
24:51
Speaker 7: with our system now is infused with a lot of money.
24:54
Speaker 7: I was just talking about the money and fundraising gap
24:56
Speaker 7: and that has changed a lot of the way that candidates.
24:59
Speaker 8: Are a to succeed. And the other is media.
25:01
Speaker 7: I mean, Trump gets a lot of free media and
25:04
Speaker 7: that is something that someone like a Nikki Haley had
25:07
Speaker 7: to really overcome and wasn't able to.
25:09
Speaker 1: These TV debates is so intense. Do you know anything
25:12
Speaker 1: about how his team is prepping him.
25:15
Speaker 7: It's something that's a reporting target for us right now.
25:18
Speaker 7: I know exactly I know, but I think you know
25:22
Speaker 7: they go through every scenario that you could possibly do.
25:25
Speaker 7: And the one thing I will say is that both men,
25:29
Speaker 7: you know, at this point, know each.
25:30
Speaker 8: Other's strategies and teams very well.
25:32
Speaker 7: So that is something that will you know, be in
25:35
Speaker 7: their favor in some ways.
25:36
Speaker 5: The one thing you hear from the Democrats alot is
25:38
Speaker 5: that they want the same Biden who appears at the
25:41
Speaker 5: State of the Union, and that if he comes out
25:44
Speaker 5: like that, it's great, but if he doesn't, maybe changing.
25:48
Speaker 7: And then, as you said, John, we go right after
25:51
Speaker 7: the debate to the conventions in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, where Trump
25:54
Speaker 7: will be and then at the very end of August
25:57
Speaker 7: will be in Chicago with Biden. So it'll be a
26:00
Speaker 7: summer of both of them having to endure and have
26:03
Speaker 7: the stamina to go through.
26:05
Speaker 2: There's obviously you're having to sort of game out even
26:08
Speaker 2: now thinking about election night and the potential for a
26:12
Speaker 2: drawn out, possibly a drawn out conflict tussle over the result.
26:19
Speaker 2: And we are even we saw in the swing in
26:21
Speaker 2: our swing state pole rising concern from people on both
26:25
Speaker 2: sides of potential violence around the election. One of the
26:29
Speaker 2: things that I that I was struck by talking to
26:32
Speaker 2: some people who spent a lot of time in the
26:34
Speaker 2: swing states doing polling and was a contrast to many
26:38
Speaker 2: recent elections, was this idea that turnout, that low turnout
26:43
Speaker 2: would actually on balance be good for Biden. Of course,
26:46
Speaker 2: we're just not used to thinking that. We tend to
26:48
Speaker 2: think the Democrat vote is going to be higher the
26:52
Speaker 2: more people you get at. But because of the way
26:54
Speaker 2: Trump has scrambled attracted a lot more young voters, and
26:59
Speaker 2: the additional number of younger African American voters, and just
27:03
Speaker 2: the way things are playing out, what people care about.
27:06
Speaker 2: The kind of people who vote for Trump are maybe
27:08
Speaker 2: not so likely to vote.
27:10
Speaker 3: You know.
27:10
Speaker 2: That seems to be one thing that maybe people listening
27:14
Speaker 2: might have underestimated or not realized. And there are other
27:17
Speaker 2: things that people should look out for that we might
27:20
Speaker 2: not be thinking about.
27:21
Speaker 3: Now.
27:22
Speaker 8: Well, a couple things come to mind.
27:23
Speaker 7: I think the Biden campaign feels that there could be
27:27
Speaker 7: a path to winning that is unusual this year because
27:30
Speaker 7: of changes in population and the way we do the
27:33
Speaker 7: census in the US, and that would be if he
27:35
Speaker 7: lost all the Southern states, that he still may be
27:37
Speaker 7: able to win by achieving victories in what we call
27:42
Speaker 7: the Blue Wall, which is Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, and
27:47
Speaker 7: also one random electoral vote in Omaha, Nebraska, which is
27:52
Speaker 7: a very Republican state and some of you may know
27:55
Speaker 7: it because of Warren Buffett.
27:56
Speaker 8: He actually lives there.
27:58
Speaker 2: But Nebraska raises the average wealth level.
28:03
Speaker 7: Does Nebraska is traditionally a very republican state, but Omaha
28:07
Speaker 7: has become more liberal over time. So it would be
28:10
Speaker 7: possible for Biden to lose all of the competitive swing
28:13
Speaker 7: states if they are to end up being the ones
28:15
Speaker 7: that we tend to think of, and yet wins the
28:18
Speaker 7: so called blue wall plus one electoral vote in Omaha.
28:22
Speaker 7: I think the other thing that people may not realize
28:24
Speaker 7: on what we've been trying to do a lot of
28:25
Speaker 7: reporting around at Bloomberg is a number of people who
28:28
Speaker 7: moved in the US after COVID. You know, the twenty
28:32
Speaker 7: twenty election was in November twenty twenty, but a lot
28:34
Speaker 7: of people didn't decide in the US where they were
28:36
Speaker 7: going to live because of things like you know, working
28:39
Speaker 7: from home or return to office, which were in favor
28:42
Speaker 7: of here at Bloomberg.
28:44
Speaker 8: That was career John.
28:49
Speaker 7: But in some of our reporting, we've shown that in
28:52
Speaker 7: some swing states about some nineteen percent of eligible voters
28:57
Speaker 7: have turned over in some of these wings states. So
29:00
Speaker 7: who those people are nine yeah, yeah, And who those
29:04
Speaker 7: people are, the demographics of them and how they may
29:07
Speaker 7: vote to Stephanie's point, could be really interesting and a
29:10
Speaker 7: big surprise. And lastly, I'll just say there are some
29:13
Speaker 7: ballot initiatives in some states like Florida and then Arizona
29:17
Speaker 7: and Nevada that could turn out voters for Democrats and
29:22
Speaker 7: help them more than we expect.
29:24
Speaker 2: Peggy Collins, thank you so much for helping us out.
29:27
Speaker 8: Thank you for having me, Stephanie.
29:38
Speaker 2: Okay, So, to continue the series of star turns from
29:41
Speaker 2: our Bloomberg stars, we have Francis Lacoit, who is well
29:47
Speaker 2: known to lots of people as our main anchor, beloved
29:50
Speaker 2: by many very senior interviewees like Christine Legard and others.
29:55
Speaker 2: You're from, I don't know, several European countries.
29:58
Speaker 10: Depending on who wins that football change.
30:02
Speaker 2: So you're the perfect person to help us think about
30:05
Speaker 2: these European election results. But I guess we have to
30:09
Speaker 2: talk initially about this enormous campbell by President Macro.
30:12
Speaker 3: I don't know what happened.
30:13
Speaker 10: So John interviews President Macron, like four weeks ago. He
30:16
Speaker 10: has like a PM, well, he has a PM drop
30:18
Speaker 10: out of d day, out of last minute. Then he
30:21
Speaker 10: has a state dinner with Biden, and I'm told by
30:23
Speaker 10: people inside the room that certainly his Prime minister is
30:25
Speaker 10: extremely worried about the elections and then you know, I'm
30:28
Speaker 10: told that he's a very careful, you know, individual who
30:31
Speaker 10: actually procrastinates decisions, and we know that his his team
30:35
Speaker 10: around at miss cabinet didn't know that he would you know,
30:38
Speaker 10: dissolve the Assembly and kind of call for legislative elections.
30:41
Speaker 10: So it's a little bit of a surprise the markets,
30:43
Speaker 10: as you say, tak this morning for various reasons which
30:46
Speaker 10: we can go into. And I think the question is,
30:49
Speaker 10: you know, did he see it as a political opportunity
30:52
Speaker 10: because there it would probably be difficulty in the autumn
30:55
Speaker 10: when they had to do the budget that he would
30:57
Speaker 10: have to dissolve the Assembly anyway, or does he really
31:00
Speaker 10: see this as an opportunity. I know we were having
31:02
Speaker 10: a chat with Adrian and saying it's never great to
31:04
Speaker 10: call out the citizens who vote, but there is I
31:08
Speaker 10: think a belief in the Macron camp that he can win.
31:11
Speaker 10: This turnout was very low for the Europeans, you know,
31:13
Speaker 10: Brussels is kind of far away, and so I think
31:16
Speaker 10: he believes and I can't believe that they voted for
31:18
Speaker 10: Mahinlupenz party saying you know, it doesn't really affect me
31:22
Speaker 10: that back home it would be different. So turnout of
31:25
Speaker 10: French voting for the Europeans was about fifty percent. Nationally
31:28
Speaker 10: usually it's it's seventy percent. But it's it's a gamble
31:32
Speaker 10: because he's basically staking his legacy. People say that he
31:36
Speaker 10: also maybe wants to rerun in twenty thirty two, which
31:40
Speaker 10: is unclear constitutionally.
31:41
Speaker 2: What he So the next presidential election is twenty seven, Yeah.
31:44
Speaker 10: And then it's five years it's run, he can't run.
31:47
Speaker 10: Unclear whether he can run in the next one, whether
31:49
Speaker 10: it's three terms that have to be consecutive. But it's
31:52
Speaker 10: clear John that he kind of wants to you know,
31:54
Speaker 10: that the Center wants to get rid of.
31:56
Speaker 5: I think he's more of a guy I discoed front
31:58
Speaker 5: ce Bit. I think he's more of a gambler Mackerel
32:00
Speaker 5: because if you many of us used to know him
32:03
Speaker 5: quite well, because he was the person you went to
32:05
Speaker 5: go and see before you went to go and see
32:06
Speaker 5: a land when he was president. The thing about Mackerel
32:09
Speaker 5: is that he owes everything to one enormous gamble, which
32:13
Speaker 5: is to run for president with no party behind him, nothing,
32:17
Speaker 5: And I think every now and again he thinks it's
32:18
Speaker 5: worth and obviously here he thinks it's worth lilicking the dice.
32:22
Speaker 5: I think his gamble is exactly it's pretty much what
32:25
Speaker 5: Francine said. I think that the other thing is, in
32:27
Speaker 5: this case the alternative is pretty bad because he had
32:33
Speaker 5: definitely lost the momentum in France.
32:35
Speaker 6: I think he thinks that the next few.
32:37
Speaker 5: Years would be something where he would be unable to
32:39
Speaker 5: achieve much at all, and this gives him away one
32:43
Speaker 5: of if the National Front gets in, then he puts
32:48
Speaker 5: him on the spot. They will suddenly stop being a
32:50
Speaker 5: party a protest. They will have to come up with things,
32:53
Speaker 5: which Adrian's about to say is a very foodish strategy.
32:56
Speaker 5: But the other one is I think he thinks that
32:58
Speaker 5: really confronted by that, real people will pack him.
33:02
Speaker 6: Well. The last time I can remember a.
33:06
Speaker 4: Politician making a big gamble which involved calling out the
33:10
Speaker 4: people was in twenty sixteen when David Cameron you're talking about.
33:14
Speaker 4: It didn't necessarily go very well. I think he can
33:18
Speaker 4: only have done this unless he's foolish and the gambler,
33:22
Speaker 4: because he considered that al penn Win was almost a
33:25
Speaker 4: done deal, that she was just too the movement was
33:29
Speaker 4: too powerful, that he was too do.
33:33
Speaker 6: In the presidential race. So it was an act of
33:34
Speaker 6: desperation he read.
33:35
Speaker 4: He looked at the tea leaves and said, everything's moving
33:38
Speaker 4: in their direction.
33:39
Speaker 6: I need to I need to try and try, and
33:42
Speaker 6: I need a surprise.
33:43
Speaker 10: He is an optimist, though, and I do hear, you know,
33:45
Speaker 10: from people close to him, that he thinks he has
33:47
Speaker 10: a shot. And what's interesting is that, you know, there's
33:49
Speaker 10: there's a lot of smart kind of doo put a
33:53
Speaker 10: gal analyst looking at what a Lupen presidency means. There's
33:56
Speaker 10: very few that are looking like what a burdella which
33:59
Speaker 10: is from hammer did prime minister means, And that can
34:02
Speaker 10: be you know, it's it's tricky the.
34:05
Speaker 4: Trouble, the trouble with you know, in the presidential system,
34:07
Speaker 4: the president tends to get the blame when things go wrong.
34:10
Speaker 4: So it won't be the prime minister gets the blame.
34:12
Speaker 6: It will be the president.
34:13
Speaker 4: The president is a blame magnet, and if he's presiding
34:16
Speaker 4: over a divided, dysfunctional political system, I don't think that's
34:21
Speaker 4: a good way of what's say, with salvaging your reputation.
34:24
Speaker 2: When you talk to them. I mean this is before
34:26
Speaker 2: all this, but you know a few months ago when
34:28
Speaker 2: you would sort of put to them, look, you're not
34:29
Speaker 2: going to be able to you know, doesn't this mean
34:31
Speaker 2: you're not going to be able to do any of
34:32
Speaker 2: your unpopular reforms, you know, this side of the presidential election.
34:36
Speaker 2: And their view has always been that action was better
34:38
Speaker 2: than in action, and that the more that you can
34:41
Speaker 2: tire the opposition with, you know, disagreeing with you on
34:45
Speaker 2: responses to the things that voters actually care about, the more,
34:50
Speaker 2: you know, the best that was their best chance is
34:52
Speaker 2: to actually be trying to do stuff that is seen
34:55
Speaker 2: at least is trying to tackle the problems that voters
34:58
Speaker 2: are seeing, rather than rejecting. And you could paint the
35:02
Speaker 2: hassell As as the sort of rejecting force. I mean,
35:06
Speaker 2: I guess that's part of it. It's the idea that
35:08
Speaker 2: you put them on the spot and say, do you
35:10
Speaker 2: actually want to make the world a better place? Or
35:12
Speaker 2: do you are you just running for the presidential.
35:14
Speaker 10: But they have but France, as you know it has
35:17
Speaker 10: a big many civil servants that if they get into power,
35:20
Speaker 10: will kind of make it work. So there is and
35:23
Speaker 10: there's this you know analysis, and actually they could mess
35:26
Speaker 10: up that Lupen could mess up or her party if
35:29
Speaker 10: they come into power, I mean you still have an apparatus.
35:32
Speaker 10: I think the campaigning will be very important on the economy.
35:35
Speaker 10: Lupen does not have a great track record and what
35:37
Speaker 10: she wants to do. We have not really seen a manifesto.
35:40
Speaker 10: We've been calling chief executives from the CAC forty saying,
35:42
Speaker 10: who do you think is finance minister if Bordella becomes
35:45
Speaker 10: prime minister and we don't really have an answer because
35:46
Speaker 10: their economic team haven't been around and actually a lot
35:49
Speaker 10: of the chief executives have not really engaged. From what
35:53
Speaker 10: I gather.
35:53
Speaker 2: You have a finance minister that you don't know France.
35:57
Speaker 5: I do think there's the thing about Macron. As you
35:59
Speaker 5: look at macron'sistory, this is from somebody who's one of
36:01
Speaker 5: his closest I suppose advisors and also possibly rivals. The
36:06
Speaker 5: basic thing you look at Macron. Macron came in as
36:09
Speaker 5: this candidate of change and went quite hard by French
36:13
Speaker 5: standards down that path, and then suddenly, as the last
36:16
Speaker 5: presidential election arrived, he immediately switched the other way around.
36:20
Speaker 6: And went to statis and stopped.
36:23
Speaker 5: And now if you look at all the things he's
36:25
Speaker 5: done recently from the interview with the Economist, he'd done
36:28
Speaker 5: various other things, calling and with us as well, calling
36:31
Speaker 5: for really dramatic changes again. And suddenly a Macron now
36:35
Speaker 5: has this new figure who's trying to, as he sees it,
36:38
Speaker 5: reimagine Europe. So he's absolutely in a much bigger way
36:43
Speaker 5: than anybody who could argue since the law have started
36:46
Speaker 5: to put four new visions for Europe. And yet his
36:48
Speaker 5: problem is nobody's listening. The French I've turned against him.
36:52
Speaker 5: He doesn't got on well with the Germans, and so
36:54
Speaker 5: he's trying to do anything he can to change that.
36:57
Speaker 5: So I think it's not just a simple matter of
36:59
Speaker 5: electoral things he has.
37:00
Speaker 6: He has a sense of mission about this.
37:02
Speaker 2: You've taken us onto the sort of broader European picture,
37:06
Speaker 2: and the results you know, had been sort of of
37:09
Speaker 2: those European election results had been predicted to be good
37:15
Speaker 2: for the right. It's certainly certainly good for the right
37:19
Speaker 2: in France, and you've had extreme respond extreme right and
37:25
Speaker 2: the Yes, the establishment center, center right, center left parties
37:29
Speaker 2: in Germany also completely humbled. But Francie quite a kind
37:33
Speaker 2: of complicated picture around that. It's not obviously going to
37:36
Speaker 2: see a big shift in the way the European Parliament works.
37:39
Speaker 10: No, and we don't really know what happens to the
37:41
Speaker 10: Commission president. I mean, I love it's like course wrangling, right,
37:43
Speaker 10: so I give you this, I give you that. So
37:45
Speaker 10: in terms of numbers, she has enough numbers we think
37:48
Speaker 10: of to stay on for another term as as President
37:52
Speaker 10: of the Commission. But of course they'll probably need to
37:55
Speaker 10: get more votes from center left in the European Parliament.
38:00
Speaker 10: She needs a majority of votes from like heads of states.
38:02
Speaker 10: And again, if you're a head of state and you think, look,
38:04
Speaker 10: I have the rise of the rights, do I want
38:07
Speaker 10: to be giving away kind of you know, policies are
38:11
Speaker 10: more left leaning so that Ursula underline can stay. So
38:13
Speaker 10: I think there's going to be a lot of horse trading.
38:15
Speaker 10: We thought usually it takes like a month, you know,
38:18
Speaker 10: maybe five weeks to have a president that either stays
38:21
Speaker 10: on or you have a new one. Because of the
38:23
Speaker 10: French elections, this could be delayed. I mean, he's a
38:26
Speaker 10: little bit busy. At some point, there was like rumor
38:28
Speaker 10: about Mario Draghi, which I mean, I don't know how
38:31
Speaker 10: much political capital Macrol has now.
38:32
Speaker 6: But maloney, your country, country, But where would she go.
38:38
Speaker 10: So Maloney is probably the biggest winner in these elections, right,
38:41
Speaker 10: she solidified also her power in the European Parliament. I
38:44
Speaker 10: hear a lot of business people but also politicians saying
38:48
Speaker 10: she's normalized the far right because she stayed the course
38:51
Speaker 10: on Europe, because she stayed the course on reforms, because she,
38:54
Speaker 10: you know, still supports money being sent to Ukraine despite
38:59
Speaker 10: in the past, you know, friendships with Putin. And so
39:03
Speaker 10: it's actually also Maloney being the poster child. And we
39:05
Speaker 10: saw La Penn trying to get closer to Maloney in
39:08
Speaker 10: the last three weeks. She's kind of the poster child
39:10
Speaker 10: of oh well, look she's you know, right, maybe far right,
39:15
Speaker 10: and she's made it work for the economy, and so
39:18
Speaker 10: she's yeah, she's She had a big smile when she
39:21
Speaker 10: was talking to the press.
39:23
Speaker 1: Today, fran The climate program is in some trouble, it
39:27
Speaker 1: looks like because even though as you say that the
39:29
Speaker 1: macro groupings are enough sort of keep the headline targets okay,
39:33
Speaker 1: in reality the implementation is going to be tough when
39:35
Speaker 1: you have so many more voices saying we've just heard
39:38
Speaker 1: from the electure and they don't want as much of
39:40
Speaker 1: this as we thought they did.
39:41
Speaker 10: Yeah, and it goes back to again. I mean, I
39:43
Speaker 10: think France was a good point because you know that
39:46
Speaker 10: there's like a fourth power, which is people in the streets,
39:49
Speaker 10: and we saw it with the shells on this this
39:52
Speaker 10: you know idea that if you become more agreen, then
39:55
Speaker 10: it's the person on the street that gets tax more.
39:58
Speaker 10: And so there's almost I wouldn't say abandonment of green policy,
40:02
Speaker 10: but you could really see a shift on green policy
40:05
Speaker 10: appetite from the Commission and the European Union.
40:08
Speaker 2: I should but in just to remind everyone QR code
40:11
Speaker 2: for putting in your questions. We've got a few people
40:13
Speaker 2: who put in questions. We're going to move to that
40:15
Speaker 2: in a second. But I know Adrian is about to
40:16
Speaker 2: say something very wise.
40:17
Speaker 4: I'm trying to I'm trying to think of that. If
40:20
Speaker 4: there are any general patterns in what you what we've seen,
40:23
Speaker 4: you might say we've seen the rise of populism in
40:25
Speaker 4: all of these elections we see, but in fact, you know,
40:28
Speaker 4: a pretty populist leader in India was slightly humbled in
40:32
Speaker 4: all this. I'll be seeing your shift are the right,
40:34
Speaker 4: Well yes, but not in Britain, and I think, what
40:37
Speaker 4: if I can think of anything that seems to be
40:39
Speaker 4: going on, it's anti incumbency all over the pace. Incumbents
40:43
Speaker 4: are being humbled and being brought down the people in
40:46
Speaker 4: general of voting against incumbers because they're pretty annoyed, they're
40:50
Speaker 4: they're they're pretty angry.
40:51
Speaker 10: And so not in Italy. In Greece, actually the prime
40:53
Speaker 10: minister there did pretty well, So I think it's really
40:55
Speaker 10: case by case. But I think John's point to the
40:58
Speaker 10: fact that you don't have this Franco German a line
41:00
Speaker 10: anymore really goes to the heart of Europe and it
41:03
Speaker 10: could mean a lot going forward to the place of
41:05
Speaker 10: Europe in the world of how we deal with Ukraine
41:08
Speaker 10: and AID and reforms. I mean what I also hear
41:12
Speaker 10: in the markets, and we've seen this like big move
41:14
Speaker 10: in your own and French bond spreads. Our favorite subject
41:19
Speaker 10: is that they worry that actually, whatever, if there's a
41:21
Speaker 10: you know, PM from a Loupez party that they don't fund,
41:25
Speaker 10: that we could have like many budget crisis or not
41:27
Speaker 10: so many, just a budget crisis like we've had in
41:29
Speaker 10: the UK. That if they want to put the retirement
41:31
Speaker 10: age at sixty, well how are they going to fund that?
41:34
Speaker 5: I think you could find a very possible answer to Adrian.
41:37
Speaker 5: The question is you could end up if you look
41:39
Speaker 5: across all these different races, it could be one then
41:42
Speaker 5: where Maloney is a standard bari here. And obviously this
41:46
Speaker 5: may not be acceptable to many of us, but it's
41:48
Speaker 5: there that if you run a kind of populist nationalist party,
41:52
Speaker 5: but you temper it with a bit of economics, which
41:56
Speaker 5: pro business stuff that applies to Maloney apply to the
42:01
Speaker 5: next conservative party here. It's certainly many if you were
42:05
Speaker 5: in America, many people would say that is exactly what
42:07
Speaker 5: Donald Trump is. You know, he is nationalism, but he
42:10
Speaker 5: sure knows how to look after business, and he sure
42:12
Speaker 5: knows how to deliver things, especially to the kind of
42:15
Speaker 5: white for.
42:16
Speaker 3: Their intention though, aren't they for instance?
42:18
Speaker 1: And how do you do a program like that where
42:20
Speaker 1: you business is saying we want more workers, and then
42:24
Speaker 1: you're having to have quite tight immigration controls the next
42:27
Speaker 1: the next whichever government it is, will have to be tied.
42:29
Speaker 3: And so I think, yeah, you.
42:31
Speaker 1: Completely get the theory, but in reality they it's tough.
42:34
Speaker 5: I think it probably it probably works better if you're
42:36
Speaker 5: in a huge economy like America than if you're in
42:39
Speaker 5: a smaller one. But yes, but there is a kind
42:41
Speaker 5: of if you had to look, and if I was looking,
42:44
Speaker 5: and I had to try and guess which brand of politics,
42:47
Speaker 5: and notwithstanding what happened to modiomojistorted reasonably well, there is
42:51
Speaker 5: a kind of brand emerging which is not one which
42:54
Speaker 5: is at all amicable with various causes which many of
42:58
Speaker 5: us have spouted in the past, the kind of global liberalism.
43:01
Speaker 5: But there is something emerging which is this much more
43:04
Speaker 5: right wing than we have expected up to now, but
43:07
Speaker 5: with a sort of bitter nationalism and quite a lot
43:10
Speaker 5: of business friendly give business just enough to stick on side,
43:14
Speaker 5: give them money so that they will back you if.
43:16
Speaker 6: You're Donald Trump. You see quite a lot of Italian
43:19
Speaker 6: business people.
43:20
Speaker 5: Who don't want to be particularly seen with maloney, but
43:23
Speaker 5: are prepared to, you know.
43:25
Speaker 4: So it's a sort of a nationalist liberalism.
43:27
Speaker 3: I must say.
43:27
Speaker 4: Last time when I was in the United States, last time,
43:30
Speaker 4: I was talking to some money people, and these were people.
43:34
Speaker 6: Who all they were useful.
43:36
Speaker 4: These are people who'd all basically said after the riots
43:41
Speaker 4: and on Capitol Hill that they would never ever vote
43:44
Speaker 4: for Trump. And they're all saying, well, actually, we've sort
43:47
Speaker 4: of changed our mind. I think the money, you know,
43:50
Speaker 4: Wall streets and money and business in America, having been
43:53
Speaker 4: very reluctant about Trump, is suddenly saying, Okay, we'd rather
43:56
Speaker 4: have him than I could the old guy.
43:58
Speaker 2: I couldn't help thinking about that. As people were talking
44:00
Speaker 2: about the rise of Nigel Farage last week, there was
44:02
Speaker 2: quite a lot of conversation about whether or not he
44:05
Speaker 2: would ever be acceptable to a large chunk of conservative voters,
44:08
Speaker 2: and I think, at least for some sounded to me
44:12
Speaker 2: rather complacent in saying, oh, there's you know, there was
44:14
Speaker 2: a chunk of natural conservative voter that would never find
44:17
Speaker 2: him an acceptable person to work to vote for. And
44:20
Speaker 2: it reminded me a lot of a lot of Republicans,
44:22
Speaker 2: you know, five or six years ago, who said, you know,
44:25
Speaker 2: they'd never or longer that our party would never consistently
44:31
Speaker 2: support someone like that.
44:32
Speaker 3: They never Trumpers.
44:35
Speaker 2: Yeah, pretty thin on the ground.
44:36
Speaker 6: Okay.
44:37
Speaker 2: We've had a couple of questions actually, both about the UK,
44:41
Speaker 2: one from Faize Jammi. Immigration is seen as a strength
44:45
Speaker 2: in some countries as a way to grow their economies
44:48
Speaker 2: and bring in a diversity of skills and knowledge. Why
44:51
Speaker 2: is immigration seen so negatively in the UK by the
44:54
Speaker 2: two major parties? Good question.
45:00
Speaker 1: Well, I mean, I'll take the start of it, because
45:03
Speaker 1: in the last decade or fifteen years, the perception was
45:07
Speaker 1: pre Brexit that it undercut people's wages, So you had
45:11
Speaker 1: a pure economic problem coming from immigration. What we're dealing
45:14
Speaker 1: with now is the sort of long tail of that,
45:16
Speaker 1: which is still an economic concern about people taking UK
45:21
Speaker 1: jobs and all of that. But at the same time,
45:23
Speaker 1: as we just sort of alluded to, you've also got
45:25
Speaker 1: business saying we need more we need more immigrants, and
45:28
Speaker 1: we need more workers, and we need them to be
45:30
Speaker 1: more highly skilled. But even today you had Starmer saying no, no, no,
45:35
Speaker 1: I'm not going to renegotiate freedom of movement. So you know,
45:38
Speaker 1: that just tells me everything you need to know, even
45:39
Speaker 1: though he will have people in his party saying please
45:42
Speaker 1: relax this because we do need to get more workers
45:45
Speaker 1: in and they need to be more highly skilled and
45:47
Speaker 1: so on.
45:48
Speaker 3: It's just such a third rail issue.
45:49
Speaker 4: I'm not sure about the first part of the question.
45:52
Speaker 4: I can't think of these quick countries that are crying
45:55
Speaker 4: out for that are very positive about immigants and immigrants centiment.
46:00
Speaker 6: Where Canada Canada.
46:03
Speaker 2: I'm I.
46:05
Speaker 5: Think Canada, Canada at a really good there's an election
46:10
Speaker 5: in Canada would be the main.
46:11
Speaker 2: At least it's not viewed negatively by both of the
46:14
Speaker 2: mainstream parties. It has been a major plank of but.
46:17
Speaker 4: There's a massive amount of worry right across Europe. In
46:20
Speaker 4: the United States, but it has got plenty of spare
46:22
Speaker 4: room about immigration. I think the problem is Henry Ford
46:26
Speaker 4: once said, how come is how come is it that
46:29
Speaker 4: when I want a pair of hands, I get a
46:31
Speaker 4: human being as well? And we've tended to think of
46:34
Speaker 4: immigration just as an addition of labor. But you also
46:38
Speaker 4: get people who need to be housed, who need to
46:40
Speaker 4: be educated, You need to you know, who put pressure
46:42
Speaker 4: on infrastructure.
46:43
Speaker 3: And we've not.
46:46
Speaker 4: Set a policy agenda that deals with immigration in the round.
46:49
Speaker 4: We haven't built the resources. And I think that's true
46:52
Speaker 4: right across Europe.
46:52
Speaker 2: Business. It's somehow got this great reputation as a paternalist.
46:56
Speaker 2: I think it's not resting on that quote.
46:59
Speaker 3: He was a paternalist.
47:01
Speaker 1: I mean, one of the things I reflect on after
47:03
Speaker 1: Brexit was that the immigration piece of that was about
47:05
Speaker 1: controlling immigration. It wasn't necessarily about reducing it. I know,
47:09
Speaker 1: like in the sort of squashing of the story of Brexit,
47:13
Speaker 1: that's been lost and then you've got BM Boris Johnson
47:16
Speaker 1: and others, Michael Gove, they were really, really pro immigration,
47:20
Speaker 1: and in the end you have seen a massive increase
47:22
Speaker 1: in non EU immigration.
47:24
Speaker 3: And that's what we're dealing with right now.
47:26
Speaker 1: We're dealing with the debate moving on to be yes,
47:30
Speaker 1: freedom of movement was stopped and so that dealt with
47:32
Speaker 1: the immigration, but this is something else has taken its place.
47:35
Speaker 2: I mean, it's interesting that in the immediate aftermath of
47:37
Speaker 2: the referendum it was often pointed out that immigration was
47:40
Speaker 2: no longer a big issue. You know, people did feel
47:42
Speaker 2: that they dealt with it, but the sheer numbers. And
47:46
Speaker 2: I think the way going back to the question of
47:48
Speaker 2: why it's felt negatively by parties by people is that
47:52
Speaker 2: it has coincided with this squeeze on particularly on local
47:55
Speaker 2: government services caused by Brexit of biosterity that was associated
48:00
Speaker 2: very strategic decision to cut by a third in real
48:03
Speaker 2: times those core local services, which are the ones that
48:05
Speaker 2: were most squeezed by unanticipated unplanned immigration. So I think
48:11
Speaker 2: that does but you.
48:12
Speaker 4: Get a similar rise in anti immigration sentiment in Germany
48:15
Speaker 4: without all of these particular.
48:18
Speaker 2: Though with a very rapid influx still around AID. So
48:22
Speaker 2: I think we've got what we've got. Another question, that's
48:24
Speaker 2: actually we can bring Peggy back on the stage with
48:27
Speaker 2: I'm told you have a handheld Mike. Yes. How important
48:32
Speaker 2: are the running mates for both candidates in this selection,
48:34
Speaker 2: given their age and perhaps their need to widen their appeal.
48:37
Speaker 2: I mean we are we're waiting avidly to hear who
48:42
Speaker 2: President Trump decides. I think he's going to keep us
48:44
Speaker 2: waiting a bit longer.
48:45
Speaker 7: Yes, well, our expectation is that Trump will announced his
48:48
Speaker 7: first presidential nominee at the convention, which is in the
48:52
Speaker 7: middle of July. He has run this somewhat similar to
48:56
Speaker 7: his Apprentice TV show, where he's kept the number of
49:00
Speaker 7: people hanging. But we are kind of narrowing down to
49:02
Speaker 7: a handful left. But I do think it's going to
49:04
Speaker 7: be important to your point, Stephanie, because of the age
49:07
Speaker 7: of both the men that are running in the US
49:10
Speaker 7: presidential election. Then, of course, because there's a lot of
49:13
Speaker 7: attention on Biden and Harris being his vice president, would
49:17
Speaker 7: be the person who would take over the mantle. So
49:19
Speaker 7: I do think it's going to be important to see
49:22
Speaker 7: who Trump picks. Does the person balance him out some
49:25
Speaker 7: ways in terms of attracting some of the moderate voters.
49:29
Speaker 7: Nikki Haley did win a number of votes in every state,
49:32
Speaker 7: in some cases about thirty percent, and has continued to
49:35
Speaker 7: pick up some votes along the way even after Trump
49:38
Speaker 7: was the designated the nominee. So she's certainly still in
49:41
Speaker 7: the mix there. But there are others like Jade Vance,
49:44
Speaker 7: a Senator from Ohio, Doug Burham, and Senator Tim Scott
49:47
Speaker 7: from South Carolina.
49:48
Speaker 8: So we'll see what happened.
49:50
Speaker 2: There has been some discussion around whether there's already quite
49:53
Speaker 2: a lot of money obviously going into his campaign, but
49:56
Speaker 2: supposedly some high profile in the side dot in the
50:01
Speaker 2: wings waiting to see if there's a vice president who
50:04
Speaker 2: will be as sort of grown up in the room.
50:07
Speaker 2: I don't know whether. I mean, some people would say
50:08
Speaker 2: that's just a they just want to have an excuse
50:10
Speaker 2: to give him more money, and they're going to give
50:12
Speaker 2: him money anyway. But do you think that's true that
50:14
Speaker 2: there's sort of a wall of money waiting there depending
50:16
Speaker 2: on whether he picked someone who's sort of sensible or
50:19
Speaker 2: crazy or more sensible than crazy.
50:23
Speaker 8: I don't.
50:24
Speaker 7: I think it's true that there are some people waiting
50:26
Speaker 7: on the sidelines, particularly in business and on Wall Street,
50:30
Speaker 7: who backed other candidates along the way, are not waiting
50:33
Speaker 7: to see who he picked and putting some pressure on there.
50:36
Speaker 8: I'm not sure it's a wall of money.
50:37
Speaker 7: But I think it's a it's a it's a tangible amount.
50:41
Speaker 6: I think I think there's a considerable amount of money.
50:43
Speaker 5: If if Trump would choose Hailey, for instance, that would
50:48
Speaker 5: be a fig leaf or portuate way to describe that
50:51
Speaker 5: for him. For people business people who are already leaning
50:55
Speaker 5: quietly towards Trump because tax cuts and things, to say, look,
50:58
Speaker 5: he isn't that bad. It's the same argument you heard
51:01
Speaker 5: a bit in twenty sixteen that Donald Trump isn't as
51:04
Speaker 5: extreme as you think. If you could say, look, he's
51:07
Speaker 5: picked Nicki Haley, that would help. It would also help
51:10
Speaker 5: quite a lot that you look at the swing voters,
51:12
Speaker 5: white suburban women, absolutely the foe there and Nicky Haley
51:16
Speaker 5: would help a bit with that. And the question for
51:18
Speaker 5: Trump is how much he prizes loyalty, which tends to
51:21
Speaker 5: be his main thing, and it has to be remember
51:23
Speaker 5: that he did call Nicki Haley bird brain.
51:27
Speaker 6: For most of the campaigns. Whether that is something that
51:30
Speaker 6: he would buy, It's unlikely to be like pen so
51:34
Speaker 6: I thinks to.
51:36
Speaker 8: Say she didn't Nicky Haley.
51:38
Speaker 7: To your point, John, given that that name Colin Nicky
51:41
Speaker 7: Hilly did endorse him much sooner than maybe some people.
51:44
Speaker 8: Would have thought.
51:45
Speaker 5: She's very shrewdly came out and supportive of him during
51:47
Speaker 5: his trial as well.
51:50
Speaker 2: There's a there's a question which is a massive question.
51:52
Speaker 2: So I'm just going to give it. I'm going to
51:54
Speaker 2: give it to John, and you can give a very
51:55
Speaker 2: short answer so that we end more or less on time.
51:59
Speaker 2: But which question would each Oh wait, this is not
52:03
Speaker 2: the one, but I'm going to another one's moved.
52:04
Speaker 6: Oh okay.
52:05
Speaker 2: How will Europe and the UK solve the US China dilemma?
52:09
Speaker 2: I guess the point of choosing will trade trump the
52:13
Speaker 2: security relationship? I guess you could just have a one
52:15
Speaker 2: word answer, We'll trade security with great difficulty.
52:19
Speaker 5: I think in the end there is I think in
52:22
Speaker 5: the end security will matter. And I think what you
52:25
Speaker 5: see and you put any collection of European and American
52:29
Speaker 5: leaders together for all the difficulty and all the kind
52:34
Speaker 5: of madness that is going on. There is a there
52:36
Speaker 5: is a very steadfast and I think this is cross Peggy.
52:40
Speaker 5: I think would agree across both parties. In America there
52:43
Speaker 5: is an absolute certainty that China is now the enemy.
52:47
Speaker 5: China is the thing they need to beat. There is
52:50
Speaker 5: a disagreement in America about how how much you can
52:53
Speaker 5: do to your main allies in trying to meet with
52:57
Speaker 5: some people on the Publican side thinking you have to
52:59
Speaker 5: bush the Europeans in. But in general the idea that
53:03
Speaker 5: there is China and there is Russia and they are
53:07
Speaker 5: set against everything that most of the people in this
53:10
Speaker 5: room stand for. That is a feeling which is much
53:14
Speaker 5: more consciously put forward in America, but I think is
53:17
Speaker 5: also gradually coming to Europe. So from that perspective, I
53:20
Speaker 5: would say that it is security that comes through.
53:24
Speaker 4: One of the remarkable things about America is that we
53:26
Speaker 4: think of it about it as being divided in the
53:29
Speaker 4: polarized country, But when it comes to policy towards China,
53:32
Speaker 4: both the main parties are absolutely united over it, and
53:36
Speaker 4: all sort of serious policy makers are united over it.
53:39
Speaker 4: Trump's line on China has become the line that everybody
53:43
Speaker 4: takes about China now and Europe is slowly catching up.
53:47
Speaker 4: But Europe's going in the same direction because the threat
53:50
Speaker 4: from China it is massive. They're building a lot of bombs,
53:53
Speaker 4: they're investing a lot of money in their defense, and
53:57
Speaker 4: they're aggressively against Western values liberalism.
54:00
Speaker 2: So Adrian, you've confirmed one of the conclusions of your
54:03
Speaker 2: long working partnership and book writing partnership with John Wicklthway
54:07
Speaker 2: that you will never let him have the last word.
54:10
Speaker 2: But that's the end of this special live episode of
54:15
Speaker 2: vhot Nomics or live taping of voter Nomics. Thank you
54:19
Speaker 2: to everyone here for coming. Thank you to Sammasadi, Victoria Wakeley,
54:24
Speaker 2: Eron Levy and lots of other people who've helped put
54:27
Speaker 2: this event together. And to our guests Peggy Collins and
54:30
Speaker 2: Francine Laquire special guest Star Editor in Chief, John Nicklthwaite,
54:35
Speaker 2: and Adrian and Allegra. I'll see you later in the week.
54:38
Speaker 3: I think