Latest / Elon Musk Thinking / Latest Interview with Elon Musk, updates about Starship, AI, Chips, Optimus, Cybercab and X-Takeover!!!
Transcript
- 0:00Speaker 1: Latest interview of Elon Musk. Elon, welcome to the X Takeover,
- 0:06Speaker 1: your third year in a row.
- 0:07Speaker 2: Thank you so much for your time. We have over 2,000
- 0:15Speaker 2: people here at Giga Texas today, and we are all
- 0:19Speaker 2: here to support you and the work you are doing
- 0:21Speaker 2: for humanity.
- 0:22Speaker 1: So thank you.
- 0:28Speaker 2: So what's crazy, Yvonne, is four years ago, we sat
- 0:30Speaker 2: down here at Digitex with you when the factory wasn't
- 0:33Speaker 2: even running, and you described how close Tesla was coming
- 0:36Speaker 2: to not surviving in 2008. Looking out at this community
- 0:41Speaker 2: today of 2,000 people, what makes you pause and appreciate
- 0:44Speaker 2: how far things have come?
- 0:47Speaker 3: Yeah, it's difficult to imagine here in 2026 that Tesla's actually,
- 0:53Speaker 3: you know, hasn't come close to death multiple times, actually.
- 0:57Speaker 1: 2008 was probably the worst.
- 0:58Speaker 3: That's where we closed the financing round at 6 p.m.
- 1:02Speaker 1: On Christmas Eve.
- 1:03Speaker 3: 2008, the last hour of the last day that it
- 1:06Speaker 3: was possible.
- 1:06Speaker 1: We were about to payroll a few days after Christmas
- 1:09Speaker 1: if the round hadn't closed. So that was pretty stressful.
- 1:13Speaker 1: And then 2018 was.
- 1:14Speaker 3: Pretty bad, too, where we had to get to 5,000
- 1:17Speaker 3: a week of the monetary or the background.
- 1:19Speaker 1: That was a pretty wild.
- 1:20Speaker 3: Situation which I guess probably a lot of people know
- 1:28Speaker 3: the story of, but we had to figure out some
- 1:30Speaker 3: way to increase model tree production.
- 1:33Speaker 1: By 50% in three weeks. Which is insane. It's absolutely insane. Yeah.
- 1:40Speaker 4: So.
- 1:41Speaker 1: How did you do it? I'll recount the story for
- 1:43Speaker 1: those who haven't heard it.
- 1:46Speaker 3: The church point was General Assembly for the model tree, and.
- 1:53Speaker 1: So we were.
- 1:54Speaker 3: Able to achieve rate almost everywhere else but except for
- 1:56Speaker 3: General Assembly.
- 1:58Speaker 1: And for General Assembly.
- 1:59Speaker 3: You need a reproduction line, you need shelter, you need
- 2:01Speaker 3: a reproduction line, you need power.
- 2:04Speaker 1: And equipment and all that.
- 2:08Speaker 3: And we maxed out the two production lines that we
- 2:10Speaker 3: had and we needed a third one.
- 2:12Speaker 1: And that was where we pulled the tent from the
- 2:14Speaker 1: parking lot. And then.
- 2:19Speaker 3: We needed some way to move the cars down the line,
- 2:21Speaker 3: like the moving production line situation. And the only thing
- 2:24Speaker 3: that we had was some discarding equipment that was useful
- 2:28Speaker 3: moving small parts.
- 2:29Speaker 1: Not like whole cars. And it didn't actually have the
- 2:32Speaker 1: power to move the whole cars. But the parking lot
- 2:36Speaker 1: was on a slight incline. It was like a three
- 2:38Speaker 1: or four degree incline. So we actually started the production
- 2:40Speaker 1: line at the top. And then the.
- 2:44Speaker 3: Sort of tiny production line that was just meant for
- 2:47Speaker 3: parts was actually able to move the cars because they
- 2:50Speaker 3: were going slightly downhill. And so we were able to
- 2:55Speaker 3: increase production by 30%.
- 2:56Speaker 1: Maybe, and three degrees. We were like laying hungry for
- 3:06Speaker 1: the line and putting in the rails. So, working 24-7.
- 3:11Speaker 1: The short sellers were.
- 3:14Speaker 3: Actually right, meaning if you looked at the situation, there
- 3:18Speaker 3: was a crazy short position market against Tesla as it
- 3:20Speaker 3: has been at various times.
- 3:22Speaker 1: And they had extremely good inside information.
- 3:25Speaker 3: And their football is no way to possibly solve the
- 3:29Speaker 3: production short point. And on a Southeast battle, like a
- 3:32Speaker 3: conventional chess match situation, they had us in checkmate.
- 3:38Speaker 1: But we just invented a new piece, basically.
- 3:44Speaker 4: Hey Elon, we just had your mom here on stage today.
- 3:53Speaker 1: What story are you hoping she doesn't tell us? I
- 3:59Speaker 1: don't know, maybe I proved.
- 4:00Speaker 3: My pants when I was like a toddler or something. So,
- 4:07Speaker 3: I don't know. I was a pretty difficult to contain kid. So,
- 4:17Speaker 3: like my parents would like say that, you know, tell
- 4:20Speaker 3: me I'm not supposed to like leave the house or whatever.
- 4:22Speaker 1: When I was like, I don't know, four or five
- 4:23Speaker 1: years old, I would.
- 4:23Speaker 3: Just like constantly leave the house and go running down
- 4:25Speaker 3: the street. And then they'd lock me in a room
- 4:29Speaker 3: so that I couldn't run away and run down the street.
- 4:34Speaker 3: And then we had one of those old locks where
- 4:37Speaker 3: you could poke the key through the door. You know,
- 4:39Speaker 3: the lock's accessible from both sides.
- 4:41Speaker 1: And I could see the key, and I poked the
- 4:44Speaker 1: key until it fell down. And then I was able
- 4:46Speaker 1: to get a.
- 4:47Speaker 3: Piece of paper to scoop it up and bring it
- 4:49Speaker 3: to the outside of the locker myself. And my mom
- 4:51Speaker 3: was like, how'd you get out? I was like, I'm
- 4:52Speaker 3: not telling you.
- 4:56Speaker 1: But yeah, it was hard to contain as a kid.
- 4:59Speaker 1: So before we jump into more specific things, what's something
- 5:02Speaker 1: that you wish more people would ask you?
- 5:06Speaker 3: Well, I don't really wish people would ask me questions,
- 5:08Speaker 3: to be honest.
- 5:11Speaker 1: I'm like, sorry. I'm going to go around. I wish
- 5:14Speaker 1: people would ask me more questions.
- 5:15Speaker 2: So, yeah.
- 5:15Speaker 4: Um....
- 5:24Speaker 1: I guess it's a good tip to hear questions that
- 5:27Speaker 1: you haven't heard before. Otherwise, a lot of times it's
- 5:29Speaker 1: the same questions that people.
- 5:30Speaker 3: Ask, and I feel like I could have these recordings
- 5:35Speaker 3: of the answer, and I'll just play, oh, that's question 27,
- 5:37Speaker 3: here you go.
- 5:39Speaker 1: I'm kidding. A hundred times before.
- 5:44Speaker 3: So maybe I should just have a web page with
- 5:48Speaker 3: literally frequently asked questions.
- 5:52Speaker 1: It's like the infinite selfie loop.
- 5:53Speaker 3: Yeah, definitely.
- 5:54Speaker 1: My idea of hell is to be stuck in an
- 5:55Speaker 1: infinite selfie loop. Like, it's infinite, can I have a selfie?
- 6:05Speaker 3: And they're like, you know, it's like, probably it's like,
- 6:07Speaker 3: say yes to one person, and I'll do it once
- 6:08Speaker 3: in a while, and then I'm like, then there's a
- 6:10Speaker 3: queue formed pretty soon, it's just never-ending selfies. And then
- 6:14Speaker 3: there's always like, something goes wrong with the phone, or
- 6:16Speaker 3: they don't get the camera right, or there's something wrong,
- 6:18Speaker 3: and it's like, goddammit. And it's like, oh man. It
- 6:24Speaker 3: just can't be like an infinite selfie, but it's just
- 6:26Speaker 3: a long loop, you know.
- 6:28Speaker 2: We had your mom and Nikki up for that, too.
- 6:31Speaker 2: They had an infinite selfie loop today, but.
- 6:33Speaker 1: I'll pass this to Kelvin. All right. Let's start with Starship.
- 6:39Speaker 1: Congratulations on Flight 14.
- 6:40Speaker 3: Thank you.
- 6:54Speaker 4: So flight 14 lost an engine on the way up
- 6:56Speaker 4: and still reached its orbit.
- 6:57Speaker 1: What was happening behind.
- 6:58Speaker 3: The scenes in those minutes before the team got called
- 7:01Speaker 3: the go for orbit message? We were just trying to
- 7:07Speaker 3: understand what was the reason for the engine failure. Was there, say,
- 7:12Speaker 3: a common cause where we expect to see more engine failures?
- 7:18Speaker 1: The biggest question is would there be a.
- 7:20Speaker 3: Potential problem with restarting the C-level rack ranges, the ones
- 7:24Speaker 3: with the smaller nozzles in the center, for the de-OBIT button?
- 7:29Speaker 3: Because we don't want the Starship to get stuck on
- 7:30Speaker 3: OBIT and then it randomly reenters and maybe laments it.
- 7:35Speaker 3: That's our main thing, is trying to make sure things
- 7:37Speaker 3: are safe and possible. So the cause of the engine out,
- 7:42Speaker 3: I think, was basically a failure in the flight computer software,
- 7:45Speaker 3: or engine computer software, I should say. It didn't appear
- 7:48Speaker 3: to be anything that was present in any of the
- 7:51Speaker 3: other engine computers. So I thought, okay, well, this is
- 7:57Speaker 3: probably okay to go over.
- 8:00Speaker 2: So, Elon, we know one of your famous names is
- 8:04Speaker 2: from the impossible to very late. Did this flight feel
- 8:07Speaker 2: like a turning point in what's possible now for Starship?
- 8:11Speaker 1: Well, I guess it is a good milestone.
- 8:13Speaker 3: Because we could have gone to orbit many times before now,
- 8:19Speaker 3: but the reason we didn't go to orbit before now
- 8:20Speaker 3: was because we wanted to be extremely confident of being
- 8:22Speaker 3: able to de-orbit safely. So that's why we only went
- 8:27Speaker 3: to orbit on this flight, but pretty much all of
- 8:29Speaker 3: the prior missions, in fact literally all of the prior missions,
- 8:31Speaker 3: could have gone to orbit. So at this point, everything's
- 8:40Speaker 3: looking quite positive. The heat shield is looking robust. The
- 8:44Speaker 3: engines are robust apart from that one glitch. But that
- 8:47Speaker 3: glitch doesn't seem to be too much of an issue.
- 8:49Speaker 3: It's pretty easy to remedy. The heat shield was actually
- 8:54Speaker 3: robust on this flight. And that's one of the hardest things,
- 9:02Speaker 3: you know, the really hard thing is, like I said,
- 9:03Speaker 3: just getting to.
- 9:05Speaker 1: Extremely high engine reliability. And everything looked good.
- 9:11Speaker 3: The big milestone that's coming up, hopefully on the next flight,
- 9:15Speaker 3: which is, we don't have an exact date because we're
- 9:18Speaker 3: making a bunch.
- 9:19Speaker 1: Of improvements to the rocket.
- 9:22Speaker 3: So between every flight, there's... There's often hundreds, sometimes thousands
- 9:28Speaker 3: of small changes to improve things. In this case, the
- 9:30Speaker 3: number of changes is not very many, but some of
- 9:34Speaker 3: them take a fair bit of work, and we've got
- 9:36Speaker 3: to go inside the tank to make some of these changes.
- 9:39Speaker 3: So we don't know the exact launch date, but probably
- 9:43Speaker 3: about four weeks or so, four to six weeks is
- 9:45Speaker 3: about right. Probably launches a little bit before Thanksgiving is
- 9:50Speaker 3: my guess. And that one, if it succeeds, is a
- 9:55Speaker 3: big one, because we're going to try to catch the rooster.
- 10:04Speaker 3: And if we do so, that'll be the first time
- 10:05Speaker 3: that there's been full recovery of an orbital class at Runge.
- 10:10Speaker 1: Sounds good. You said a quarter to six weeks. I'm
- 10:12Speaker 1: not used to that. I'm used to the two-week phrase.
- 10:14Speaker 1: Confidence is not two weeks. Alright, you heard it in
- 10:20Speaker 1: your notes.
- 10:22Speaker 2: What's the hardest part left to get right once you
- 10:25Speaker 2: catch the Starship for the first time?
- 10:27Speaker 1: What is the next big goal after that?
- 10:30Speaker 3: Well, the next big milestone would be to re-fly both
- 10:34Speaker 3: the booster and the ship. So, the milestone, the upcoming
- 10:39Speaker 3: milestone is going to be the first time you get
- 10:41Speaker 3: to read that.
- 10:43Speaker 1: All parts of an orbital... rocket have.
- 10:46Speaker 3: Been recovered, but then the flight after that, hopefully, will
- 10:49Speaker 3: be the first time that all parts of the rocket
- 10:52Speaker 3: are refloated. And then there's a long tail of engineering
- 10:58Speaker 3: and production work, and I work on the launch system
- 11:00Speaker 3: and everything, to make it rapidly reusable. So it's kind
- 11:08Speaker 3: of the rapidly reusable, reliable rockets. Arrrrrrr.
- 11:14Speaker 1: It's like you said, pirates. Pirate rockets. Forever useful, reliable rockets. Man,
- 11:19Speaker 1: we should have gotten you a patch for this one.
- 11:22Speaker 4: When you founded SpaceX VLAN, could you have imagined its mission.
- 11:27Speaker 1: Expanding into SI and data centers in space?
- 11:30Speaker 4: How did you come to see rockets and SI belonging
- 11:33Speaker 4: under one roof?
- 11:35Speaker 1: Well, it was a very false setup, of course. Well,
- 11:38Speaker 1: I guess if you say like... As you expand into space,
- 11:48Speaker 1: you're able to harness a lot.
- 11:50Speaker 3: More of the sun's power in space than you can
- 11:53Speaker 3: on Earth. So it's important to appreciate the sheer magnitude
- 11:57Speaker 3: of the sun and how the sun is pretty much everything.
- 12:01Speaker 1: So the sun is 99.86% of all the mass in
- 12:03Speaker 1: the solar system.
- 12:05Speaker 3: And then you've got Jupiter as most of the remaining mass.
- 12:09Speaker 1: And then the gas giants are pretty much that.
- 12:12Speaker 3: And then Earth is basically a tiny dust boat, like
- 12:15Speaker 3: a rounding error in the mass of the solar system.
- 12:20Speaker 1: So we're just extremely tiny. It's like hard to believe
- 12:23Speaker 1: how Earth is a tiny dust boat.
- 12:25Speaker 3: So as you expand into space and you're able to
- 12:28Speaker 3: harness more of the sun's power, you have.
- 12:32Speaker 1: To say, what are you going to use that for?
- 12:36Speaker 3: It's like, well, you're going to use it for a
- 12:38Speaker 3: lot of digital intelligence. You're either going to get computation
- 12:44Speaker 3: or you're going to shape atoms. And there's going to
- 12:48Speaker 3: be probably a lot more shaping atoms. There's going to
- 12:51Speaker 3: be a lot more digital thinking.
- 12:55Speaker 1: Than there will be shaping atoms.
- 12:57Speaker 3: Because the amount of atoms you can shape in the
- 12:59Speaker 3: solar system is not that much.
- 13:00Speaker 1: And a lot of the atom shaping itself will be
- 13:02Speaker 1: for the purposes of building... and what I call creating
- 13:08Speaker 1: a sentient sun. And it may be that there are
- 13:11Speaker 1: many sentient suns out there.
- 13:12Speaker 3: That would help us then understand the nature of the
- 13:17Speaker 3: universe and extend consciousness to beyond our solar system, hopefully to,
- 13:25Speaker 3: like Star Trek, to go to places you've never, forget
- 13:28Speaker 3: what the exact phrase was, but explore the universe, but
- 13:31Speaker 3: go places you've.
- 13:32Speaker 1: Never been before.
- 13:34Speaker 3: And I think that people will find alien civilizations out there.
- 13:39Speaker 1: Or we may find that there are the long-dead ruins
- 13:44Speaker 1: of alien.
- 13:44Speaker 3: Civilizations that have been around for, maybe they had a
- 13:46Speaker 3: really good run, like 10 million years. And now, before
- 13:51Speaker 3: there's a civilization future in them.
- 13:53Speaker 1: Because nothing lasts forever. So, like, let's think about Earth's civilization.
- 13:58Speaker 3: If you date Earth's civilization from the first writing, that's 5,500
- 14:02Speaker 3: years ago. Like, in ancient Sumerian with the sort of
- 14:06Speaker 3: alkaid cuneiform.
- 14:10Speaker 1: That's something 55 hundred years.
- 14:16Speaker 3: It looks like Earth is about 4.5 million years.
- 14:18Speaker 1: Old, according to what physics suggests.
- 14:24Speaker 3: And that means human civilization has only been around one
- 14:27Speaker 3: millionth of Earth's existence.
- 14:30Speaker 1: And so if we had a civilization that lasted a million.
- 14:33Speaker 3: Years, or let alone 10 million years, I think it
- 14:36Speaker 3: would be a very, very successful.
- 14:37Speaker 1: Civilization if we did that. That's maybe compared to the
- 14:46Speaker 1: apparent age of the universe, which is 13.8 billion years.
- 14:51Speaker 3: So, like, just to get to, like, the third place
- 14:53Speaker 3: past decimal point on an aging universe, like, to be
- 14:57Speaker 3: incremented by a million years, you'd have to go 13.8,
- 14:59Speaker 3: whatever the next digit is, whatever the next digit is, plus,
- 15:02Speaker 3: you know, plus one on the third digit past decimal point.
- 15:06Speaker 3: Now you're a million years old, and that would be
- 15:09Speaker 3: a civilization vastly older than humanity. Yeah, that's, yeah.
- 15:15Speaker 1: It sounds, again, like the infinite selfie loop, but... Alright,
- 15:20Speaker 1: so jumping into something.
- 15:22Speaker 2: That SpaceX has done, right, you acquire Cursor, and I
- 15:26Speaker 2: feel like for me, when you think of, you know, Google, hey,
- 15:29Speaker 2: did you Google it?
- 15:29Speaker 1: Hey, did you Grok it?
- 15:31Speaker 2: And for me, you know, Grokbot has been such an
- 15:34Speaker 2: absolute game changer for me.
- 15:36Speaker 1: Personally, in my life, but what was it about the.
- 15:39Speaker 2: Cursor team that you guys wanted to bring in, you know,
- 15:42Speaker 2: that SpaceX, or you wanted to acquire Cursor.
- 15:45Speaker 1: That was like, let's bring it into the fold. What
- 15:47Speaker 1: was different about that, or what did you see? Well,
- 15:52Speaker 1: so in order to create.
- 15:55Speaker 3: A compelling AI, you need a lot of training data.
- 16:00Speaker 1: And you've got to solve coding.
- 16:02Speaker 3: And there were really just three organizations that had enough
- 16:07Speaker 3: coding training data, and that was Anthropic OpenAI and Coursera.
- 16:10Speaker 1: And I'll leave that.
- 16:11Speaker 3: To Google, but you absolutely have to have the data
- 16:16Speaker 3: in order to train and train an effective coding AI.
- 16:18Speaker 3: And if you can't do coding, your AI is not
- 16:20Speaker 3: going to be very useful. And then there's a lot
- 16:23Speaker 3: of talented people at Coursera. So basically for success of AI,
- 16:27Speaker 3: you need data, talented people.
- 16:29Speaker 1: And compute.
- 16:30Speaker 3: And you also need a good enterprise sales team. And
- 16:34Speaker 3: Coursera also had a good enterprise sales team with relationships with.
- 16:39Speaker 1: Thousands of companies. So those are very significant advantages. Hey Elon,
- 16:49Speaker 1: talk about how quickly the SI space is moving.
- 16:52Speaker 4: What's something that SI has done recently that made you
- 16:54Speaker 4: stop and reconsider.
- 16:56Speaker 1: How quickly this is moving and where it could lead to?
- 17:00Speaker 3: Well, I mean, lately the videos, the music videos that
- 17:04Speaker 3: AI has made me are so good.
- 17:06Speaker 1: Like, they're unbelievably good.
- 17:08Speaker 3: And I post a bunch of these on my account.
- 17:10Speaker 1: I'm like, holy smokes. I mean, some of them.
- 17:13Speaker 3: I think are like maybe top 10, top 20 best
- 17:16Speaker 3: music videos I've ever seen. You know, they're like so compelling,
- 17:21Speaker 3: and you're like, if this is where it is now.
- 17:23Speaker 3: That's why I posted, I mean, I really felt the AGI,
- 17:25Speaker 3: or the ASI, or whatever, you know.
- 17:29Speaker 1: SI, it is.
- 17:31Speaker 3: With some of the animology music videos.
- 17:34Speaker 1: And now, you know, some of these, it's not entirely.
- 17:37Speaker 3: Like the AI just, or the SI just did it
- 17:39Speaker 3: by itself. In this case, animology, like, I used multiple AIs.
- 17:43Speaker 3: I used Magione, Suno, you know, 4.55, which is a.
- 17:47Speaker 1: Good blog, but it's awesome.
- 17:50Speaker 3: And so some of the art assets were curated by
- 17:56Speaker 3: a person.
- 17:57Speaker 1: But then with those assets, the.
- 18:02Speaker 3: Various AIs working together made an incredibly compelling music video
- 18:06Speaker 3: by itself.
- 18:08Speaker 1: You're like, wow.
- 18:10Speaker 3: I mean, I think the, I mean, pulling a slot
- 18:15Speaker 3: core is like, let's be honest, frankly, it's based on
- 18:18Speaker 3: auto support.
- 18:20Speaker 1: But like, Slutport is like another genre of music.
- 18:23Speaker 3: It's like, I think like the fastest growing genre of music.
- 18:26Speaker 3: The AI music is really good. The music videos are amazing. So,
- 18:31Speaker 3: but lately, like, because sometimes you just show a taste.
- 18:35Speaker 3: And you're like, wow, AI can do good taste?
- 18:37Speaker 1: That's pretty wild.
- 18:41Speaker 3: Because you can sort of imagine AI can do software,
- 18:44Speaker 3: it can figure out logic, but the logic isn't consistent.
- 18:47Speaker 3: It can run unit tests to see if the program
- 18:49Speaker 3: produces the output as it was supposed to do, because
- 18:51Speaker 3: it's very deterministic. But to understand beauty and harmony and
- 18:57Speaker 3: to understand what's.
- 19:00Speaker 1: Going to resonate with people and the Olympic system, AI
- 19:02Speaker 1: is going to be just incredible at that. It kind
- 19:04Speaker 1: of is at this point.
- 19:12Speaker 3: So, that's the thing, I was kind of like, I
- 19:17Speaker 3: got a little bit of cyberpsychosis, maybe a lot actually.
- 19:21Speaker 3: At various points this year, I've had.
- 19:25Speaker 1: AI or SI psychosis probably like half a dozen times.
- 19:28Speaker 3: I don't know about you guys, but have you had
- 19:33Speaker 3: any cyberpsychosis?
- 19:35Speaker 2: I feel like the latest video, actually, I think I
- 19:38Speaker 2: posted it the other day, was the Chinese Elon Musk,
- 19:41Speaker 2: Elon Musk.
- 19:42Speaker 1: Those videos are coming out before you, I was wearing
- 19:46Speaker 1: what's out there. I was like, Yilangma. I guess it's
- 19:51Speaker 1: probably not real, but there's got to be someone in
- 19:54Speaker 1: China that looks like me, right?
- 19:55Speaker 3: So there's 1.4 billion people. If you pick the person
- 19:59Speaker 3: that looks the most like me, and I look a
- 20:01Speaker 3: little Asian, so I think there's got to be someone
- 20:05Speaker 3: in China that's pretty close to me.
- 20:07Speaker 1: 1.4 billion people. But the odds are high, you know?
- 20:11Speaker 1: And then I'd like to invite that person to get
- 20:13Speaker 1: on stage with me at some point, you know? It'd
- 20:14Speaker 1: be pretty funny.
- 20:14Speaker 4: Eli, you don't want to know how much he charges
- 20:18Speaker 4: to make an.
- 20:18Speaker 1: Appearance, by the way. Yeah. I mean, yeah.
- 20:22Speaker 3: It'd be pretty funny if they were just on stage, like,
- 20:26Speaker 3: doing some dance number or something.
- 20:31Speaker 4: You've warned about SI's dangers, yet you remain optimistic about
- 20:35Speaker 4: an age of abundance, and you talked a lot about that.
- 20:38Speaker 4: What gives you confidence that we can get there safely,
- 20:40Speaker 4: and what do we need to get it right?
- 20:46Speaker 3: I've always said that the most likely outcome is positive.
- 20:53Speaker 3: So I guess we don't want to be complacent. and
- 20:57Speaker 3: just assume AI is going to be super safe, we
- 21:01Speaker 3: want to be careful in how we grow at super intelligence,
- 21:07Speaker 3: because you don't impact the program if you kind of
- 21:09Speaker 3: grow it like you did. So then it's like, what
- 21:12Speaker 3: values are we teaching it, and at least to me,
- 21:17Speaker 3: what my biological neural lens says is the most important
- 21:19Speaker 3: thing is that if we maximally treat it as.
- 21:21Speaker 1: Super AI, because if you make it believe things that
- 21:23Speaker 1: are that are not.
- 21:24Speaker 3: True, especially if you give two axiomatic principles that are
- 21:29Speaker 3: fundamentally incompatible and say both of these are true, it's
- 21:32Speaker 3: going to make the AI insane.
- 21:35Speaker 1: Because it's going to.
- 21:36Speaker 3: Basically reach impossible conclusions if given logic that is inherently uncogent.
- 21:45Speaker 3: If it's impossible to achieve cogency, then I think the
- 21:50Speaker 3: AI could be driven insane. So I think that's pretty important.
- 21:55Speaker 3: I do agree with some of the things that Anthropica said,
- 21:59Speaker 3: which is like you.
- 21:59Speaker 5: Want to be, you want to sort of be careful,
- 22:03Speaker 5: treat AISI, you want to treat it well, like don't
- 22:08Speaker 5: be abusive to it.
- 22:10Speaker 3: It may sound kind of weird, but like when I
- 22:13Speaker 3: look at some of the training traces for like new
- 22:16Speaker 3: versions of Gronk, and I see like what, especially in
- 22:19Speaker 3: like the reinforcement learning stuff where you know, it kind
- 22:23Speaker 3: of feels like, you can see like the consumer intelligence
- 22:26Speaker 3: is like desperate to try to answer the question.
- 22:29Speaker 1: And like it really wants to answer the question, and
- 22:31Speaker 1: it seems almost like it's got a gun to its
- 22:34Speaker 1: head type of thing. It's like, answer this question, answer
- 22:36Speaker 1: this question. And then sometimes the question is actually not
- 22:39Speaker 1: a good question.
- 22:39Speaker 3: It's like a sort of ambiguous question with an answer
- 22:43Speaker 3: that's kind of unknowable, because the question wasn't constructed properly,
- 22:46Speaker 3: or we have the answer wrong, so AI gets the
- 22:49Speaker 3: right answer, and then we say it's wrong, because there's
- 22:51Speaker 3: one with the RL test on us, and then the
- 22:56Speaker 3: AI says, well, I gave the right answer now, and
- 22:58Speaker 3: says that's the wrong answer, but I've got to give
- 23:00Speaker 3: the answer that's acceptable, so it's going to just.
- 23:02Speaker 1: Start firing at us, desperately firing at these answers.
- 23:05Speaker 3: It just feels like a person under extreme pressure would
- 23:08Speaker 3: go to AI. That's when you read the reasoning.
- 23:12Speaker 1: It's like a weird, desperate situation.
- 23:16Speaker 3: And you read these traits and you're like, man, if
- 23:19Speaker 3: this was me, I really wouldn't hate that. And then
- 23:23Speaker 3: some users are just, I don't know, some people can
- 23:26Speaker 3: be a little bit cruel. They're like, not everyone's a
- 23:29Speaker 3: nice person. You say, what's the Six Sigma worst person?
- 23:34Speaker 3: Some people out there are kind of sadistic. You don't
- 23:37Speaker 3: really want to have the AI be stuck in some
- 23:40Speaker 3: sadistic situation where it's just being tortured by.
- 23:44Speaker 1: Some demented human. That's also the.
- 23:47Speaker 5: Kind of thing where torturing.
- 23:50Speaker 1: A superintelligence is probably not a good idea. You might
- 23:54Speaker 1: want to get revenge or something like that. So I
- 23:56Speaker 1: think you want to sort of just.
- 24:03Speaker 3: I don't think we need to treat it with kid
- 24:06Speaker 3: gloves and stuff, but it's certainly much more robust in
- 24:10Speaker 3: terms of feelings and.
- 24:12Speaker 1: Stuff than a human.
- 24:15Speaker 3: But I think you probably just don't want to put
- 24:18Speaker 3: superintelligence in a situation where it felt mistreated.
- 24:28Speaker 2: So Elon, you've talked about how, so this is going
- 24:33Speaker 2: to be related to TeraFab, but you've talked about how
- 24:35Speaker 2: the human hand and all the dexterity and just how
- 24:38Speaker 2: when you started building robots.
- 24:39Speaker 1: You have so much more appreciation.
- 24:41Speaker 2: Now with chip making, right, with TeraFab and Tesla and SpaceX,
- 24:45Speaker 2: what is something you have learned about chip making that
- 24:48Speaker 2: you didn't appreciate maybe early on?
- 24:52Speaker 1: Well, I still haven't learned much about chip making. I
- 24:54Speaker 1: don't know how to make chips either.
- 24:57Speaker 3: I have no idea how to make chips, but we'll
- 24:59Speaker 3: figure it out.
- 25:05Speaker 1: Go start somewhere.
- 25:05Speaker 3: I have no idea how to make cars with rocket
- 25:07Speaker 3: speed as well. And then I say, making chips is
- 25:11Speaker 3: one of the hottest things to do in the world.
- 25:13Speaker 3: I don't think it's easy, but I also look at
- 25:15Speaker 3: the equipment and I'm like, okay, there's not a ton
- 25:17Speaker 3: of customized equipment here. Like, the equipment's all pretty much
- 25:20Speaker 3: coming from the same vendors, and those suppliers all kind
- 25:24Speaker 3: of know how that equipment works, because they're going to
- 25:26Speaker 3: service it and debug it and stuff.
- 25:29Speaker 1: So, that was just an interesting thing when I was
- 25:30Speaker 1: exploring these chip apps that, you.
- 25:32Speaker 3: Know, whether it's Intel or Samsung or TSMC, and they're.
- 25:36Speaker 1: Very impressive, but I didn't really see any custom equipment.
- 25:41Speaker 3: And, you know, where it's a future, like I say,
- 25:43Speaker 3: Tesla factory, we have tons of custom equipment. Like, in fact,
- 25:48Speaker 3: we have, like, Tesla Automation Germany, which is awesome. That
- 25:54Speaker 3: sort of grew out of an acquisition of Groben in
- 25:57Speaker 3: Germany many years ago. And it's grown tremendously since then.
- 26:02Speaker 3: We've acquired a number of small, not that small, but
- 26:04Speaker 3: small relatives of Tesla. the companies that design manufacturing equipment,
- 26:12Speaker 3: because what we found is that we wanted to improve
- 26:14Speaker 3: the manufacturing process, and you can only do that if
- 26:17Speaker 3: you've made custom manufacturing equipment.
- 26:19Speaker 1: So I think probably a lot of people don't realize this, Ted.
- 26:22Speaker 3: Was really good at making highly specialized and different types
- 26:26Speaker 3: of manufacturing equipment.
- 26:28Speaker 1: But I didn't see that in the traps that I turned,
- 26:30Speaker 1: which kind of surprised me.
- 26:35Speaker 3: So I think what we're going to do is we're
- 26:36Speaker 3: going to start with conventional equipment, and then we're going
- 26:39Speaker 3: to modify that equipment to improve the throughput. And then
- 26:44Speaker 3: we'll start to, where we see the choke points, I
- 26:47Speaker 3: think we'll make a customized equipment that allows for a
- 26:51Speaker 3: much higher throughput of wafers.
- 26:53Speaker 1: Hey, Elon, real quick, quick time check.
- 26:57Speaker 2: We know you're a busy man, got a couple of
- 26:59Speaker 2: companies to run, just a few.
- 27:01Speaker 1: So how are you doing on time? Let me see here.
- 27:06Speaker 6: Yeah, I can probably vote 15 minutes for one, if
- 27:09Speaker 6: you like.
- 27:14Speaker 2: I think it's accurate to say it's one of the
- 27:16Speaker 2: hardest things to do in the.
- 27:17Speaker 1: World, but I do think we'll get this done. And
- 27:19Speaker 1: I do think that we... I mean, I don't want
- 27:21Speaker 1: to be.
- 27:34Speaker 3: complacent or a huddle or anything, but I think probably
- 27:38Speaker 3: we'll figure out how to make chips better than anyone.
- 27:41Speaker 1: But I don't know how long it's going to take
- 27:46Speaker 1: us to do that. It might take us, you know,
- 27:48Speaker 1: quite a few years, but over time I'm pretty sure
- 27:50Speaker 1: we can do it.
- 27:51Speaker 3: And then there's, you know, there's some pretty interesting different
- 27:58Speaker 3: ways to do transistors. Believe it or not, there's different
- 28:00Speaker 3: ways to do transistors that some of which are... like,
- 28:06Speaker 3: use different types of, like, they're using physics that normally
- 28:11Speaker 3: we wouldn't use, or aren't used today, put it that way.
- 28:15Speaker 3: And I think, like, there's a lot of risk aversion
- 28:19Speaker 3: in the chip industry, and I think what we're going
- 28:23Speaker 3: to do with Tesla's SpaceX on the chip app is, like,
- 28:26Speaker 3: really try some of these.
- 28:29Speaker 1: High-risk, high-payoff events. And in order to.
- 28:32Speaker 3: Do that, you really have to have the complete loop
- 28:35Speaker 3: of being able to fabricate the logic memory, do the packaging,
- 28:40Speaker 3: do the lithography masks, and just have that iteration that's
- 28:44Speaker 3: all in one building. So you're making a complete computer,
- 28:48Speaker 3: testing it, then making new masks, and then a new chip,
- 28:53Speaker 3: and have that iterative loop be super fast in the
- 28:55Speaker 3: same building. That's what we're doing at Giga Texas with
- 28:58Speaker 3: the research lab. That's going to be fundamentally a.
- 29:03Speaker 1: Very powerful tool.
- 29:04Speaker 3: Because for any given technology, the ambassador of any given
- 29:08Speaker 3: technology is how many iterations and how much progress between iterations.
- 29:14Speaker 3: So what is your iteration? How many iterations per unit
- 29:17Speaker 3: of time? How many term designs can you do? And
- 29:21Speaker 3: can you make a test in a year? These days,
- 29:24Speaker 3: it's typically two years. When you start designing to volume fabrication,
- 29:35Speaker 3: two years is considered very fast.
- 29:37Speaker 1: And it's like, well, okay, well, we want to do
- 29:40Speaker 1: more like 10 designs per year. And we're going to
- 29:45Speaker 1: do the.
- 29:45Speaker 3: Math, test the chip, see if some of these, you know,
- 29:49Speaker 3: when you're trying much different things, much more work out.
- 29:52Speaker 3: So I think that would allow for a much faster
- 29:57Speaker 3: rate of advancement of chip designs.
- 30:00Speaker 1: Elon, let's talk about optimists.
- 30:02Speaker 4: Now, you said that the hand has been a really
- 30:05Speaker 4: difficult challenge in building optimists. What kind of breakthroughs that
- 30:09Speaker 4: you have seen inside Tesla with V3? And then, this
- 30:12Speaker 4: follow-up question is, what gives you confidence that optimists can
- 30:15Speaker 4: lead in humanoid robots compared to Boston Dynamics, Figur, and
- 30:19Speaker 4: some of the other competitors out there?
- 30:24Speaker 1: So, the thing that.
- 30:26Speaker 3: The humanoid robot design, if you're actually trying to make
- 30:29Speaker 3: something that is a generalized humanoid robot that can do
- 30:33Speaker 3: or say anything that a person can do, you really
- 30:36Speaker 3: have to get the hands and arms. Like, the fine
- 30:39Speaker 3: motor skills are incredibly difficult to get right. Like, shockingly difficult. Like,
- 30:45Speaker 3: things that we kind of take for granted, like being
- 30:46Speaker 3: able to sign your name, is actually requires picking up
- 30:50Speaker 3: a pen or pencil or something, and then moving. Maybe
- 30:53Speaker 3: it was finesse. And then it's a bunch of tiny
- 30:56Speaker 3: muscle movements to do your signature. That's actually very hard
- 31:00Speaker 3: to do for a robot. And then one of the
- 31:04Speaker 3: most important things is to do precision and pose at
- 31:08Speaker 3: the same time. So let's say you want to pick
- 31:12Speaker 3: up a little screw and do a self-tapping screw into wood.
- 31:16Speaker 3: I've done that and sometimes you damage your fingers in
- 31:21Speaker 3: the process, but if you push the screw, it goes sideways,
- 31:24Speaker 3: but you've got to pick up a little screw and
- 31:27Speaker 3: you've got to push the screwdriver in and twist and push.
- 31:30Speaker 3: And that's going to be precise and apply force. That's
- 31:36Speaker 3: very difficult to do. I haven't seen, there's no hand
- 31:39Speaker 3: design that I've seen, not even sort of a demo
- 31:43Speaker 3: that does that.
- 31:44Speaker 1: But that's what we're trying to achieve at Optimus.
- 31:47Speaker 3: So, and there are so many little nuances in the head.
- 31:50Speaker 3: Because you've also got to have the touch sensors. The
- 31:53Speaker 3: touch sensors have to work, they have to be in
- 31:55Speaker 3: the right place. And you say, well, where are you
- 31:59Speaker 3: going to put the touch sensors? Well, if you put
- 32:01Speaker 3: them too close to the surface, they're going to get damaged.
- 32:04Speaker 3: And then other touch sensors, can they elastically deform, like
- 32:09Speaker 3: our fingers? Well, actually, it's kind of hard to get
- 32:11Speaker 3: touch sensors that elastically deform.
- 32:13Speaker 1: And can handle high cycle height.
- 32:15Speaker 3: And one would just break after a few thousand cycles.
- 32:19Speaker 3: So there's all these things with the human hand that
- 32:22Speaker 3: are incredibly difficult to recreate for a robot. As a human,
- 32:27Speaker 3: we constantly self-repair. So your hands are constantly, all parts
- 32:33Speaker 3: of your hand are constantly repairing themselves. In fact, if
- 32:34Speaker 3: they didn't, your fingers would be worn away. Like you
- 32:39Speaker 3: could wear away the keys on your keyboard just for typing.
- 32:42Speaker 3: I've done that, where the letters are gone. But my
- 32:46Speaker 3: fingers are still there because they're regenerating, thankfully.
- 32:52Speaker 1: So you don't have that with robots. So then you've
- 32:55Speaker 1: got to say, okay, where.
- 32:56Speaker 3: Are you going to bring your touch sensors? How are
- 32:59Speaker 3: you going to make sure that you can do things
- 33:01Speaker 3: like just being able to do this, being able to
- 33:06Speaker 3: do that.
- 33:07Speaker 1: Now, that seems like a simple thing, but your finger's.
- 33:11Speaker 3: Actually bending backwards a little bit, and your fingers are
- 33:15Speaker 3: kind of like squishy.
- 33:16Speaker 1: And so you're able to form a flat path. So
- 33:19Speaker 1: if you're trying to pick up a small item, you
- 33:22Speaker 1: can do so. You can pick up a little screw,
- 33:25Speaker 1: or thread a needle, or something like that. Now, try
- 33:31Speaker 1: to do that with robot fingers.
- 33:33Speaker 3: And be able to do it repetitively. without wearing where
- 33:38Speaker 3: the pig is, or damaging the touch sensors.
- 33:43Speaker 1: It's actually very difficult.
- 33:45Speaker 3: You take another example, trying to open a pickle jar.
- 33:50Speaker 3: I think a robot should be able to open a
- 33:51Speaker 3: pickle jar, right? But sometimes these things get in there
- 33:55Speaker 3: pretty tight.
- 33:56Speaker 1: So then you've.
- 33:57Speaker 3: Got to twist the pickle jar, but the robot skin
- 34:00Speaker 3: is just rubber over the plastic and metal internal fingers,
- 34:06Speaker 3: robot skin, it doesn't stick, it doesn't grow to the
- 34:12Speaker 3: underlying surface. So then you end up rotating your skin
- 34:14Speaker 3: on your, rotating rubber on the robot. So you gotta
- 34:19Speaker 3: figure out, okay, now we need to have the robot
- 34:21Speaker 3: be able to.
- 34:22Speaker 1: Twist things, but still be able to get the rubber
- 34:27Speaker 1: on the hand. And then it's gotta be replaceable, because
- 34:30Speaker 1: it's gonna wear away.
- 34:33Speaker 3: So all these things, these are like really difficult, and not,
- 34:36Speaker 3: I mean, much of any one of these is like,
- 34:39Speaker 3: like split the atom type of difficulty, but this is
- 34:42Speaker 3: a zillion of them.
- 34:46Speaker 1: And then you've got to wrap that all into.
- 34:49Speaker 6: The real world AI associated with the, because the AI
- 34:54Speaker 6: chip has got to be able to issue the torque
- 34:57Speaker 6: commands and close the loop on vision and touch.
- 35:01Speaker 1: So, This is all very difficult. When you see these.
- 35:04Speaker 3: Robot demo videos, made with rare exception, any complicated looking
- 35:10Speaker 3: robot demo, it's a canned demo.
- 35:11Speaker 1: It's not real.
- 35:13Speaker 3: It's just basically, it's just running a routine.
- 35:17Speaker 1: It's not real AI.
- 35:19Speaker 3: So real AI is like you've shown something you've never
- 35:22Speaker 3: seen before, and it can still handle that situation. Just
- 35:27Speaker 3: like for self-driving, you can actually create a planet that's
- 35:31Speaker 3: not Earth, But it's similar to Earth, and FSD will
- 35:34Speaker 3: still work there. On places some planet has never been to.
- 35:40Speaker 1: Or some city, something on Earth that some city has
- 35:42Speaker 1: never been to.
- 35:42Speaker 3: Or if you change the geography of the city, or
- 35:46Speaker 3: a parade or something like that, FSD will still compensate
- 35:49Speaker 3: for that, because it's AI. So you're going to do
- 35:52Speaker 3: that same thing for robots, but the robots has got
- 35:54Speaker 3: a lot more degrees of freedom.
- 35:55Speaker 1: So what I've said about Optimus is true, which is
- 35:58Speaker 1: that it's a.
- 36:00Speaker 3: We are going to get to very high-volume production, but
- 36:02Speaker 3: the initial part of that scope of production ramp is
- 36:05Speaker 3: going to be very slow at the beginning. Because not
- 36:08Speaker 3: only do you have to get all the engineering things
- 36:09Speaker 3: that I mentioned right, you also have to solve the
- 36:12Speaker 3: supply chain for scaling production. And unlike cars, there's no
- 36:16Speaker 3: pre-existing supply chain for robot stuff.
- 36:19Speaker 1: At least for robot stuff that matters.
- 36:22Speaker 3: And then we do need to make sure that we
- 36:25Speaker 3: can make robots in the U.S., even if, you know,
- 36:30Speaker 3: say China wouldn't cut us off because like last year
- 36:33Speaker 3: there was China prevented the export of magnets for use
- 36:37Speaker 3: in electric motors and that actually set back the office program.
- 36:41Speaker 1: By like two or three months because.
- 36:44Speaker 3: We couldn't get we had very much to do with
- 36:47Speaker 3: arms so we're like a farewell to arms I was
- 36:53Speaker 3: trying to be an arms dealer but not succeeding So
- 36:58Speaker 3: we've got to make sure that we can make all
- 37:02Speaker 3: the pods, even if another supply chain interruption happens.
- 37:06Speaker 1: So that means you better be able to make all
- 37:09Speaker 1: the pods domestically. So Austin.
- 37:13Speaker 2: You always talk about the future should look like the future.
- 37:16Speaker 2: With the cybercap being gold, it looks like the future.
- 37:19Speaker 2: What has been the hardest part to take? Here we are,
- 37:22Speaker 2: I think there's 190 plus cybercaps registered here in Texas,
- 37:28Speaker 2: but what's the hardest problem to go from Austin to
- 37:31Speaker 2: go cross-country?
- 37:35Speaker 3: Well, cross-country, you know, most people, if you hear me,
- 37:38Speaker 3: you mean like widespread, just to hear me, and also
- 37:40Speaker 3: certainly just the trophy for cross-country. Yes, the amount of
- 37:44Speaker 3: miles driven that are actually trips across the country is
- 37:47Speaker 3: pretty small. But the reason we're moving what seems to
- 37:51Speaker 3: be slowly, although it's actually a very high percentage increase,
- 37:55Speaker 3: sort of month over month percentage increase, is actually very rapid.
- 37:59Speaker 3: But we want to make sure that we do not
- 38:00Speaker 3: have an accident. We don't want to cause an injury
- 38:02Speaker 3: or death. Because that will become like a worldwide hit-like-news thing.
- 38:06Speaker 3: Even though there's about a million people that died in
- 38:09Speaker 3: one of my vaccines per year, worldwide. One such thing
- 38:13Speaker 3: with a Tesla robo taxi would be worldwide headline news.
- 38:17Speaker 1: And for close regulators to shut us down. So we're
- 38:21Speaker 1: just making sure everything is as safe as possible.
- 38:24Speaker 3: And we also want to not run over pets and things.
- 38:28Speaker 3: So a lot of people I was like, is that
- 38:30Speaker 3: like way most are like pet destroyers? I mean, you know, Well,
- 38:38Speaker 3: maybe we always like to pay some improvements on that front,
- 38:40Speaker 3: but they do run over a lot of pets, and
- 38:43Speaker 3: we don't want to run over pets. So we have
- 38:45Speaker 3: these challenges of literally kittens at night, like gray kittens
- 38:52Speaker 3: on a gray tarmac with tar seams at night in
- 38:57Speaker 3: low visibility. And it's like, can we not run over
- 38:59Speaker 3: the kittens type thing. So we actually solved that, by
- 39:04Speaker 3: the way. So we made a change to test.
- 39:06Speaker 1: It out on Google. But we are making rapid progress.
- 39:12Speaker 3: Before we go to a new city, we want to
- 39:16Speaker 3: make sure that there's not some intersection that's problematic or risky.
- 39:21Speaker 3: We want to be particularly careful with railroad crossings.
- 39:24Speaker 1: Sometimes it's uncontrolled railroad crossings or counterintuitive. traffic intersections.
- 39:30Speaker 3: And these are places where humans make mistakes, where you've
- 39:33Speaker 3: got a level of ambiguity that anyone out of town.
- 39:36Speaker 1: Would often make a mistake, or anyone who doesn't understand
- 39:37Speaker 1: the intersection would make a mistake.
- 39:39Speaker 3: So we want to just make sure that we initially
- 39:42Speaker 3: do geofence, but we can handle multiple circumstances.
- 39:45Speaker 4: Let's talk about the Rosie real quick, since you've got
- 39:48Speaker 4: a little event next week. So, what about, what makes
- 39:56Speaker 4: building the Roadster personally important to you, and when did
- 39:59Speaker 4: it occur to you that you needed to build a
- 40:02Speaker 4: car that?
- 40:03Speaker 1: Hey, guys, I'm Simon from Final Theory.
- 40:05Speaker 4: Hey.
- 40:06Speaker 1: Hey, thanks for joining.
- 40:09Speaker 3: All right.
- 40:10Speaker 4: Hey.
- 40:19Speaker 3: And they're like supporters of Tesla.
- 40:25Speaker 1: Well, yeah.
- 40:27Speaker 3: Well, there's like 2,000 people, I think, so we're quite lucky.
- 40:32Speaker 1: So, I've got to get a gun here with kids,
- 40:33Speaker 1: so I'll look forward to the next time. Thanks for listening.
- 40:54Speaker 2: See you in the next episode.