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Transcript

Wednesday BEST BETS | MLB & NHL & NBA | 4/8/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Yep. Inside I want to kill myself. We are on
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: OWN seven run over the last two days after tonight
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: it was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: start off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: don't even know what to tell you about that. I
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: just don't want to do this anymore. I have never
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: seen anything like this. Man with the slump continuing, two
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: straight losses, not a good day at all. Own four
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: that have not had a good season. Man with wookends
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: the slump that I'm on, and the slump continues. I've
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: reached a new peak. Actually, I'm going to burn my
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: browins hat man, I don't know what is going on
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: with the Bruins. March eight? Is that what it is?
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: I don't even know it's March ninth? I think who
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: even knows? Man, I don't know what day is anymore.
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: I don't even know what data is anymore. Man, back
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: with you after the worst day that I could possibly have,
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: Back with few as I always am until I die
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: at least oh and two. Yesterday and yesterday did not
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: go well for me. Own five the worst month that
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: I've ever had in my eighteen years doing this. I
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: To the Slump series, the Slum discontinuous, the Slump continues.
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: Somebody fucking kill me, please. I don't even know what
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: I should do at this point, other than potentially end
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: it all. What's up, earbuddy, It's towed back with you
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: with Toadstool Sports. It is Wednesday, April eighth, the death
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: adversary of Kurt Cobain. I believe Rip, and now we
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: I guess know for sure that Courtney Love did it.
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: We're gonna get gonna get this channel banned. Here man
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: two and oh a day on the show yesterday, I
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: think we got pretty lucky. We had to get a
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: couple of three run innings from our teams to get
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: it done. It looked like we were almost definitely going
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: zero to two, and that would have been a pretty
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: bad loss because Baltimore was a decent favorite in that game,
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: so we would have lost more money on that. But
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: Baltimore put up like a three spot in the eighth inning,
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: Henderson with a home run, and we were able to
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: get that done. And you know, I mean, you could
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: make the argument that maybe Baltimore should have scored some
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: runs off of Smith in that game. Smith was all
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: over the place in that game. He had one of
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: the weirdest pitching lines you'll ever see it. It was
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: a pitcher Gomi or whatever, a unique pitching line. He
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: went like three and a third, gave up one hit,
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: eight strikeouts, and had like six walks or something like that.
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: Five walks maybe, but whatever it is. You put that
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: many guys on base and you somehow get out of
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: that not allowing any runs, that's pretty insane. But Baltimore
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: was still able to get it done. Arizona was down
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: two to nothing in the fifth inning, so that was
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: almost definitively gonna be a loser, and they put up
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: a three spot and they wound up cashing for everybody.
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: Whether you had the money line or the run line.
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: For our run line play, they only needed to get
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: two runs in that inning to cover. I mean, still,
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: you're asking them to put up multiple runs in one
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: inning for you, But they did. They put up three.
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: We got lucky. Man. I'm gonna tell you the market
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: was pretty much disagreeing with both plays. That wasn't good.
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: We're gonna try to have some better plays today. I'm
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: gonna give up four plays today, although obviously it's highly
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: unlikely that we're gonna get all four of them right,
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: But obviously the aim is to try to go three
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: and one here. We're gonna have three baseball plays one
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: hockey play, even though it's a small board. There's one
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: hockey game that I do like, and then NBA I
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: don't like. So I'll tell you what my strongest opinion
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: is in the NBA, and that's gonna be about it. So, Kyle,
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: what's up? Thanks for hanging out. Yeah, I'm running around
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: naked right here, streaking. Zach, what's up all right? Thanks
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: for hanging out the Royals. Yeah, we're gonna talk about
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: the rules. I think that might be. Is that the
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: first game up? Let me say no, it's a second
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: game up. We got afternoon action here, man, I do
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: have one afternoon actually have two afternoon baseball plays and
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: one later play here. It's Wednesday, so you know it's
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: basically getaway day. A lot of these teams are finishing
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: series today and traveling. A few of these series are
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: continuing tomorrow. I don't even know how how many teams
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: are playing tomorrow. I don't know. It'll be six games tomorrow,
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: so a nice easier Thursday to look at Tomorrow. First
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: game up is San Diego and Pittsburgh. I haven't been
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: paying that much attention to this series. They've split the
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: first two games of the series, so I think both
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: teams are probably gonna show up here. Connor Griffin seems
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: like he's hitting well for Pittsburgh here. Man, Pittsburgh I
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: believe got the win behind Skeens yesterday, which is not
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: totally surprising. Of course, decent pitching matchup in this game
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: today too, as far as what the bullpens did yesterday,
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: because I gotta look at every aspect of the game, man.
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: San Diego used four relief pitchers, Pittsburgh used three. I
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: think San Diego generally does have the better bullpen here, though,
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: but their hitting has been awful, so Pittsburgh actually has
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: the better hitting so far this year. San Diego's had
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: the better bullpen, not by a ton, but I'm gonna
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: give San Diego a bullpen edge. Pittsburgh has been the
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: better offense this year. I don't know what's going on
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: with San Diego's offense, Man, but they have not been
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: doing well. Michael King is pitching for San Diego. He's
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: doing fine this season so far two starts. Hasn't really
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: gone that deep in either start yet, they haven't really
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: totally unleashed him yet. The one concern I guess that
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: he walked four guys in his first outing, but he
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: got that under control in his next outing. Although the
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: Red Sox we're able to hit him a little bit.
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: But I don't really have too many concerns with King.
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: His numbers are kind of mediocre against Pittsburgh though, in
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: thirty four bats fifteen to four strikeout walk ratio two
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: sixty five batting average allowed, seven eighty three ops is
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: a bit too high for my liking, even though I
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: generally like King. Maybe not the best matchup for him.
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: Mitch Keller. I will always keep saying that whenever he's pitching,
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: he goes under the radar man. I think he's better
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: than people realize. Although he did have four walks in
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: his last outing against Baltimore, which is a little bit questionable,
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: but usually he's pretty good. He's only allowed two runs
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: across twelve innings so far this year. I think Keller
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: is good. Man. He's going up against the Padres offense
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: that has not been hitting well, but his numbers are
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: not good against them. One hundred and one at bats,
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: very bad, nineteen to sixteen strike out walk ratio. You
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: want to talk about walks, that is definitely too many walks.
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: It's really not that many strikeouts. So I don't know,
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: but Keller not specifically, not particularly good against San Diego
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: two fifty seven batting average allowed his fine eight twenty
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: four ops. That's been on the higher side. Man, I'm
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: not gonna be touching this game. San Diego's at minus
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: one oh six. Here, looks like the money is backing
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh here fifty tickets, eighty two percent of the cash
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: on Pittsburgh, if you know, if you're gonna do that again,
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: I think the bullpens are a little bit of a
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: toss up here. You could maybe go first five innings
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: with it. But I'm not totally sold on Pittsburgh having
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: a huge edge with the starting pitching either. I think
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: it's close, dude, I really do. The money has also
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: come in on the under. For what that's worth, it's
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: down to seven and a half juice to the under.
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: If you're gonna go under, you know, I could see
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: the argument for it, but everything just kind of concerns
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: you at this game. I don't know if I would
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: go first five inning under, like just because I don't
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: know if the bullpens are really that concerning here. Fifty
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: nine percent of tickets on the over, seventy two percent
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: of the cash on the under. Obviously, this is not
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: a game that I'm playing. I think it's I think
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: it's close, dude, Like every way that you look at
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: this game, I just don't really see a real angle
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: to use in that game. But money is saying Pittsburgh
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: and the under in that game. For what that's worth. Rio,
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: what's up, man, Thanks for hanging out. Highly unlikely we're
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: gonna sweep here with the four plays, but I will
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: be happy with a three to one. If we get
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: the hockey play right, because it is a favorite, then
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: it'll at least probably be a decent day. Kansas City
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: at Cleveland. Here you go, Zach, Kansas City's ace is
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: on the mountain in this game. These teams have split
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: the first two games, with Cleveland winning yesterday divisional series.
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: I expect both teams to show up in this one.
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: As far as what these teams have looked like this year,
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: Kansas City's bullpen has been bad this year, so interesting
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: because that was not the case last year. Cleveland has
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: had the better bullpen, even though you look at their bullpen,
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: err it's not good. But I look at whip and
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: they have not been putting that many guys on base.
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: So I'm ranking Cleveland's bullpend pretty high, higher than Kansas City's.
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: Kansas City has been the better off which is kind
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: of surprising as well. Well, it's just surprising that either
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: of these offenses is doing anything. Cleveland's is not, but
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: Kansas City has had the better hitting so far. Cole
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: Ray against pitching for Kansas City here, he's good man.
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: I mean, his wipth doesn't look good so far this
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: year because he had too many walks in his first outing,
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: but he settled down with a nice outing against the
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: Twins his last time out. Gave up nowhere and runs
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: and six innings in that outing, eight strikeouts, one walk,
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: pretty efficient, eighty nine pitches. I don't really have too
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: many concerns with him. He's definitely Kansas City's best starter.
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: He has really good numbers against the Indians as well,
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: and fifty two at bats one ninety two batting average
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: allowed five p thirty two ops. Very good numbers there,
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: fifteen to five strike out walk ratio fine as well.
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: Speaking of the Indians, I watched A Major League again
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: the other day as well, on its a release anniversary.
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: It holds up, man, I mean, it's a good movie.
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: I still don't think it's the best sports movie. I
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: think it is the best baseball movie, though, But it's fun.
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: It holds up. But anyway, Yeah, Reagan's looks like he
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: has a decent matchup here. Joey Cantillo is pitching for Cleveland.
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: He's got a good era, his whip is a bit
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: too high. He's walked too many guys, dude. He's walked
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: five guys across nine innings so far. That's not that good.
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: Eleven strikeouts is pretty good, but he's wild so far
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: he's pitched. I mean, his last outing, he'd give it
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: one and run against the Cubs, which is not bad,
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: although the Cubs haven't been hitting that well so far.
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: Cantio against the Royals has been pretty good. Forty at
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: bats two hundred average, five to twenty three oh ps allowed,
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: so he has held their offense down nine to four
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: strike a walk ratio is not exactly very good, though
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: I think Reagan's does have the upper hand here. We
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: got to look at what the bullpens did yesterday as well, though,
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: just to complete the analysis here, Kansas City used three
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: relief pitchers yesterday Cleveland used four. So Cleveland's bullpen is better.
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: But it's a little bit less rest to come into
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: this one. Maybe that'll help tilt the scales towards Kansas
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: City a little bit. But the money is coming in
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: towards Cleveland in this sixty five percent of tickets fifty
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: four percent of the cash on the Royals. They did
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: move up for minus one twelve to minus one twenty five.
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: Maybe Reagan's getting a little bit too much respect here.
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: If you're gonna go Cleveland here, like money line, I
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: would go full game on it. I think Kansas City
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: has more of an advantage while the starting pitchers are
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: out there, I might lean towards Kansas City in the
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: first five full game. Maybe I'm not so sure about it.
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: Under is getting the money as well in that one
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: eighty three percent of tickets ninety seven percent of the
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: cash on the under. Under might be a better way
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: to look at that game, really, you know, I mean
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: I still think we have two offenses that are not like,
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: totally explosive. At the very least, Cleveland's is just not good.
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: Both pictures look like they have a decent matchup here.
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: I worry a little bit about Cantillo though, and worry
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: about Kansas City's bullpen a bit as well, So the
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: underdoes concern me a little bit. To him. You could
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: look first five under in that game too, but again,
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: with a really low total of seven, the odds becers
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: are telling you it should be low scoring. But seven
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: is that key number on the full game, So sometimes
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: you do just want to roll full game, whether rather
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: than trying to go under like three in the first
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: five innings or whatever. All right, next game up is
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: my Boston Red Sox against Milwaukee. This is the best
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: bet for me, and I don't like it. Why is
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: that the case? Yeah, because I'm gonna recommend the Milwaukee
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: Brewers on the money line here, man. I mean, yes,
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: it is true that the Red Sox are better than
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: they appear so far, but Milwaukee's got I think numerous
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: edges in this game. Milwaukee only used two relief pitchers yesterday,
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: but Woodford only through three pitches, so they're bothping is
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: pretty healthy, pretty rested, I should say coming into this game,
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: not healthy because Kane Egg is on the injured list,
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: but dl Hall basically ate up all the innings out
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: of their pen yesterday. Red Sox used three relief pitchers yesterday,
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: including Chapman, although they have been using him a couple
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: of days in a row. Sometimes they might use him
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: multiple days in a row again. But the bullpen looks
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: like it sets up better for Milwaukee here, and their
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: bullpen has been the better one, although it's very slight
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: so far, but they have been the better bullpen so
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: far against the Red Sox. Milwaukee also has been the
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: better offense, so I think they have an edge in
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: multiple ways here. I think the Red Sox offense will
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: become better at some point, but Milwaukee's been one of
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: the best so far, so they do have a decent
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: edge there. Then we're gonna look at the starting pitching
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: matchup here. The Red Sox did win yesterday barely, with
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: Garrett Crochet behind that win. Two of the Red sox
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: three wins have been with Crochet on the mound, so
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: that's not good coming into this one. Shane Drohan. Drohan
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: is pitching for the Brewers. Here, he's making his major
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: league debut at the age of twenty seven, which I
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: know is not a good sign when you're twenty seven
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: and you haven't you had your career take off yet.
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: So I'm like, who is this guy? Who is Shane Drohan?
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: He sounds like you know he he sounds like a
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: like an irishman or something like he should be in Boston. Well,
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: first of all, the Red Sox actually drafted him a
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: few years ago, so he might actually have a little
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: bit of motivation here, just based on that. Because the
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: Red Sox drafted him wound up getting rid of him.
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: He's had a bunch of injury problems, which has delayed
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: his career. He was never supposed to be like that
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: good or anything. But it's interesting because I think he's
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: gonna be motivated to go up against the team that
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: drafted him and deemed him unworthy. And it's hilarious that
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: his major league debut he gets to pitch against that team.
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: So I think that's gonna pump him up a little bit.
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: I think he's gonna have some other advantages because I
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: think he will be pumped for his first major league
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: debut or for his major league debut. Now there is
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: always the risk that he's gonna be nervous and not
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: do as well. But the advantage that he does have
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: is that the Red Sox have never faced him before. Now,
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: the organization is familiar with them, but they probably don't
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: know what he's been doing recently. And there's nothing that
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: compares to facing a pitcher in a live environment, and
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: these guys have not faced him before. Drohan I looked
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: up his scouting report. He throws like a mid nineties fastball,
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: which is you know whatever, I mean, everybody throws that.
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: But he's got four pitches he throws. I guess he
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: has a pretty good change up, a good curveball, I
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: believe is what it is, some off speed thing, and
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: then a cutter as well. I think his off speed
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: pitches are actually his best pitches. That's interesting because when
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: hitters again, when they haven't faced this guy before, they're
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: not really going to be familiar with his arm angle.
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: I guess his arm angle is pretty deceptive and it's
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: hard to pick up like what pitch he's thrown at
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: you at any given time, So that makes his off
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: speed stuff work. So he might actually have a decent
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: start here. I looked at his minor league numbers and
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: overall they're not good. But last year he actually did
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: pitch well in the miners. It was like his first
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: year that was actually good. Although I think he got
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: in again and he didn't really pitch a full season,
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: but it was the first time that he had like
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: a whip that was actually reasonable in the miners. Last year,
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: his whip his e RA was in the twos, so
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: that looks better. He's pitched a little bit in the
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: miners this year and he hasn't done well. I will
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: put that out there, but it's a very small sample size.
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: So I think he is gonna be pumped up and
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: he's gonna be ready for this man. So I do
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: think he does have some advantages here. He is going
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: up against Sonny Gray, and I think the opposite is
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: kind of the case was Sonny Gray, Like, Yes, Sonny
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: Gray is a proven veteran pitcher, and we know who
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: he is. We know he's good. But the problem with
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: Gray is that, whereas Drohan has never been seen before
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: by the Red Sox, Gray is very familiar to the
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: Brewers hitters because he was with the Cardinals, so the
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: Brewers have seen Gray constantly, so they're very familiar with them.
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: Gray was the pitcher who was on the hill with
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: in the Red Sox only other win, that's true, it
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: was him against Michael King in that game against the Padres,
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: so Gray did get a win in that, and he
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: pitched pretty well better than he did in his first outing.
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: He's done fine so far this year in two outings.
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: I'm not gonna say anything about that, but the Brewers
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: could light them up. Man. His numbers against the Brewers
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: are not particularly good, and one hundred and twenty eight
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: at bats thirty nine to twelve strike a walk ratio
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: is fine, but for Gray that is kind of a high.
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: Walk number two eighty one batting average alloted in seven
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: ninety six ops allowed. Those are those numbers are definitely
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: on the higher side. The Brewers are familiar with them,
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: they have been able to hit him, So I think
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: all those advantages go pretty much go to Milwaukee here, man,
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: So we are gonna go with the Brewers. Even though
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: it looks really easy to take the team with the
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: better record the Brewers, It looks really easy to take
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: them as an underdog. But I think there is some
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: value taking them as the dog here. Man. I like
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: to take teams that look like they have advantages in
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: a lot of areas of the game when they're listed
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: as an underdog. Red Sox have dropped form minus one
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: thirty eight to minus one twenty seven, fifty two percent
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: of the tickets on them, fifty four percent of the
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: money on the Brewers. So the money is indicating towards
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: the Brewers here. I agree with it. The money is
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: also indicating pretty strongly in the under in that game,
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: for what it's worth. But I think that is that
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: speaks well for what Drohan is going to do in
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: this game. If the game is going to be a
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: lower scoring game, that does seem to indicate that he's
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: going to pitch fairly well, or he's expected to at least,
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: And that also means the game might be a bit closer,
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: which is what you want with the dogs. So and
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: then I think we do have a bullpen edge with
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee there, So we're going with Milwaukee. Yeah, you were
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: at the game yesterday? Hell yeah? Was that it was
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: miss Zerowski? Right? Miss is pretty wild, man. He's a
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: really good pitcher, though he throws. You saw the radar
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: Gun yesterday. Right, you got, dude, you got to go
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: to a good game. Man, mis against Crochet. That's a
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: solid pitching matchup. Man, Getting to see that live, that's sick.
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: I still I have not seen Crochet pitch live. Actually,
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: maybe I gotta go out get out there and see
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: him pitch a game. Man. I just don't go to
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: as many Red Sox games as I used to. I actually,
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: am I wrong? Have I I don't think I have.
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: I don't think I've seen him. Maybe I'm wrong, Maybe
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: I have. But you know, I saw all the other
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: guys like back in the day. You know, I saw
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: Pedro Martinez, I saw Tim Wakefield. I saw everybody back
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: in the day pitch for them man, Derek Lowe, Kurt Shilling,
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: John Lester. I was at the Lester no Hitter, so
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: I've been to some pretty good games there. But yeah,
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: that was a good game yesterday. If you watch the
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: radar Gun, Mizzerowski might have hit a hundred. Man, he
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: does that pretty regularly. But anyway, yeah, I like the
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: Brewers in that game. Today. All right, Baltimore and the
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: White Sox, the Orioles are on the verge of a
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: sweep I think here, so I do kind of tend
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: to look forwards teams that are trying to avoid a
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: sweep because I think they're gonna be a little bit
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: more motivated, and the team on the verge of the
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: sweep contend to overlook their opponent a little bit. Problem is,
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: Baltimore's got some advantages here. Man. The White Sox bullpen
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: is pretty bad again like it was last year. The
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: Orioles isn't that much better, but it is better. The
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: Orioles do have the better offense. The White Sox offense
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: has been pretty bad, so the Orioles do have all
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: those advantages here. The Orioles used four relief pitchers yesterday,
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: I think is what that is. So bullpen's not in
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: the greatest of shape, but Chicago's is even worse off
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: with five. They used five relief pitchers yesterday. That's not good.
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: Baltimore's got bradish pitching today. His numbers look really bad
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: so far this year, and they are. He's not a
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: good forum right now, so you do have to take
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: that into account. But he's gonna be better, dude. If
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: you look at his career numbers, he's significantly better than this.
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: So I don't think this is gonna continue. But the
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: question is when when is he gonna turn it around,
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: because so far he has a ten to six strike
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: out walk raceio. The ten strikeouts are good in eight
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: and two thirds, but he hasn't gone deep into these games.
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: Six walks is really bad, so he's got to start
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: getting that under control. And the White Socks have pretty
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: good numbers off him, but it is a very small
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: sample of ten at bats. Five to three strike out
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: walk racio, three hundred average allowed, seven to sixty two ops.
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: Bradish hasn't done too well against the White Sox. He's
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: going up against Sean Burke, who actually has pitched well
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: so far this season. My man from Sutton mass White
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: Sox have two massholes in their rotation and the other
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: one was the one that we faded yesterday. Shane Smith.
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: I feel like whenever I talk about these guys, I
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: gotta turn Boston toad on again. Man Burke has faced
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee in Toronto so far, so not the easiest lineups
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: to face, so the Toronto's been struggling this year. He
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: pitched really well in the Toronto game, went six innings,
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: allowed one on and runs, seven strikeouts, no walks, twelve
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: one strike out walk racier on the season so far.
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: I don't think Burke is quite this good. I mean,
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: last year's numbers were all very mediocre, but he is
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: in pretty good form right now. You got to give
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: him that. His numbers against Baltimore and not particularly good.
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: And twenty five at bats three twenty average allowed seven
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: to ninety three ohps six to three strike a walk ratio.
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: So those are not good numbers. What do we do
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: with this game? Based on the starting pitching numbers here? Man?
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: I kind of like over in this game, and the
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: money is coming in towards the under. And yeah, I mean,
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: Burke looks good so far. Bradish is better than his
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: numbers look, but those pitchers numbers against these opposing lineups
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: are not good, and the bullpens are not good and
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: they're not very rested. I know you're gonna need the
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: offenses to break out here to get this thing over,
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: But I think the over is probably the way I
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: would look at this game. Totals it's seven and a half,
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: but the money looks like it's coming in on the over.
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: That total seems very low for Bradish Burke, and some
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: of it has to do with the fact that the
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: offenses aren't that good, but really, like you try us
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: those pitchers plus these bullpens to keep the total under
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: seven and a half, like seven and a half is
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: supposed to be like an ace pitching matchup. Sixty percent
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: of tickets on the over, eighty one percent of the
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: cash on the over, and Baltimore is a pretty heavy
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: road favorite here up to minus one fifty five eighty
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: two percent of tickets, ninety one percent of the cash
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: on Baltimore. I don't really disagree with Baltimore, but that
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: line looks a bit high. Man Like, I think Baltimore
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: does have an edge in most phases of the game here.
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: You could argue maybe they don't with the starting pitching,
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: but yeah, I would probably not want to take the
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: shot with the White Sox here, although the White Sox again,
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: they are probably gonna be motivated because they're trying to
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: avoid the sweep at the very least, and the price
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: does look high on Baltimore, but I probably prefer Over
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: in that game if I was gonna do anything with it.
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: Don't love it though. Next game up is the next
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: best bet of mine, and it is a total and
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: it is not an over, even though I know we're
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: one and zero with the overs, we're going under in Seattle,
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: Texas seven and a half. You might find an eight
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: out there right now, but the eights look like they're
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: juiced a little bit more. And seven is the key
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: number in baseball, dude. All the odd numbers are key
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: because obviously a team needs to win, so you have
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: to break a tie. Eight is kind of no man's land,
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: So I don't think it's worth paying the extra price
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: unless you can find eight at about like minus one
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: twelve maybe or less. I would just dip to the
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: seven and a half at the reduced juice. Here. We're
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: gonna rely on this, man. We have two good bullpens,
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: first of all, with Seattle and Texas here. These two
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: teams have played two really close games so far in
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: the series, which you think would mean that their bullpens
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: got used, but not really. Seattle actually didn't use anybody
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: out of the bullpen yesterday. Their bullpend. I don't know
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: what Seattle's doing. Man. They're starting pitching. It's pretty good,
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: but they're really Their bullpen is like constantly in arrested states,
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: so they're doing really well. Their bullpend management and Texas
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: only used two relief pitchers yesterday as well, so the
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: bullpens are pretty rested and they're both pretty good. Seattle's
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: had the second best in baseball by whip so far,
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: and Texas is not that far behind. It's sixth with
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: a really good era as well, so both bullpends are good.
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: So that's all looking pretty good for an under here.
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: We're in Texas as well, doesn't even matter. Both these
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: teams have pitcher friendly ballparks. I mean, Seattle's is more
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: pitcher friendly, but still Texas is a pitcher friendly ballpark.
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: The offenses, Seattle surprisingly has struggled massively offensively so far.
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: They've had one of the worst offenses in all of baseball,
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: and yes, that's gonna turn around at some point, but
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: right now bad offensive form from them, and Texas has
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: been a very mediocre offense, so we're not looking at
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: offenses that are lighting it up here, so that all
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: looks good to me as well. As far as the
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: side here, you could argue that Seattle's gonna show up
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: because Texas is won both games of the series so far,
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: so Seattle might have a little bit of extra motivation here.
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: As also probably the better team generally, but they haven't
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: really been the better team so far this season. Man,
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: so we'll say. But the other thing I'm gonna say
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: about that is, well, actually I was gonna say both
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: games of the series have gone under so far, and
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: usually when I see that, I don't want to follow
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: that trend and go with the under again because a
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: lot of times you'll see like you won't get any
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: more value on an under, you know what I mean,
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: because every game has been low scoring. But then you
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: look at this pitching matchup and you're like, yeah, this
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: thing it's gonna go under. Dude, Brian wu was pitching
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: for Seattle. I think he's their best pitcher. Now. I
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: know he's better at home. All the Seattle pitchers are
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: better at home, but it's not like he's bad on
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: the road. And he's been good so far this year.
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: With fifteen strikeouts, two walks, and thirteen innings pitch. He's
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: only allowed five hits and two earned runs. He allowed
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: no runs in a one hit, seven inning performance in
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: his last downing against Anaheim, and he only went eighty
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: seven pitches in that game, so he was extremely efficient
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: in that game too. Wo Yeah, he's been pitching really
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: well as expected, and he does well against Texas typically
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: as well. In seventy four at bats, twenty to four
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: strikeout walk ratio, two thirty batting average allowed, six to
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: thirty four ohps. So even though Texas is familiar with them,
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: WU has done well against them. He's a really good
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: pitcher man. And then Mackenzie Gore on the other side
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: might be a little bit under the radar because Washington
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: basically kind of ruined him. He was a highly touted
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: draft pick man and then like Washington will see San
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: Diego I think drafted him, and then Washington picked him up,
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: and he basically just died in Washington, like his whip
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: was just way too high. He was just wild as hell,
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: like he's always done. A really hard thrower and a
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: good strikeout pitcher, but he's always walked a million guys.
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: And Texas they probably I think they have the best
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: pitching coaching staff in Major League Baseball because it seems
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: like every pitcher goes there and they have a complete resurgence.
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: And Gore is a super talented pitcher, and so far
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: this season with Texas, he's been really good. In eleven
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: and a third innings pitched sixteen to three strike out
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: walk ratio. He did allow two home runs in his
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: last outing in this ballpark, which is a little bit concerning,
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: but still he's pitched a lot better than he did
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: last year. He looks really good so far, and he
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: hasn't walked guys, which is the main thing. His control
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: issues don't really look like they're there right now, and
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: his numbers Againt Seattle are good and forty two at
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: bats twelve to one strike out walk ratio really good.
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: He's allowed one extra base hit which is a home
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: run to Crawford, but one sixty seven batting average allowed,
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: four to twenty four ohps allowed. Very good numbers from
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: Gore here. We're going under the total here. Man. It
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: did open eight, but like I said, seven and a half,
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: there's not really much of a difference there. Seventy seven
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets and ninety four percent of the cash
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: are on the under here, so the money looks like
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: it is indicated on the under this again, like I
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: just look at it, even on the surface alone, it
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: looks like it's gonna be an under. Then when you
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: dig into all the numbers here, everything just kind of
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: confirms my belief. I like the under. Seattle is taking
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: some of the money for what that's worth up to
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: minus one twenty eight eighty three percent tickets eighty four
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on Seattle. Their offense needs to
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: somehow turn it around at some point, though, and I
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: don't know if that's gonna happen here, man. I mean, yes,
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: wo I think is the more trustworthy pitcher here. If
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: you wanted to go with Seattle, you know, the bullpens
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: are a bit of a wash. I don't really disagree
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: with the Seattle side there. I just think the under
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: is the much better way to look at that game though.
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: I think it will be another close, low scoring game there,
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: all right, Dodgers, and uh, who are they playing here? Dude?
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: Baseball takes forever for me to get through. It's just
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: so autistic. Dodgers in Toronto, that's right. It's a World
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: Series match up here, and the Dodgers have had the
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: upper hand in this series so far, outscoring Toronto eighteen
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: to three so far. Maybe Toronto will get up for
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: this game. They don't want to get swept here, but
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: Toronto really has not looked good so far this year. Man.
• 30:10
  Speaker 1: The Dodgers have looked better in basically every phase. The
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: Dodgers used three relievers yesterday. Toronto also used three, But
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: the Dodgers have the better bullpen. Dodgers have actually been
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: the third best bullpen according to Whip again, which is
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: how I ordered these things. Again, it's still a small sample.
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: We gotta wait a little bit more for these numbers
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: to really flesh out, but we can tell something from
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: what's going on here. Dodgers have been a really good
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: bullpen so far, even though last year they were not.
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: Toronto has been a bottom third bullpen, So the Dodgers
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: have been the way better bullpen so far this year.
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: And the Dodgers have had the best offense in baseball
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: this year as well, which is not surprising. The Blue
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: Jays excuse the offense has been worse than mediocre bottom third,
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: so another advantage to the Dodgers here. Starting pitching matchup,
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: Otani is pitching for the Dodgers. I don't know if
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: that's necessarily a good thing or not. He's made one
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: start so far and it was good. He went six
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: inn He's allowed one hit and no runs against Cleveland.
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: He did walk too many guys three walks, but specifically
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: his numbers are not that good. Pitching against Toronto, fifty
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: three at bats, he has an eighteen to five strike
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: a walk ratio, which is good, but he's allowed four
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: home runs to them a three point fifty eight average
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: in one thy thirty six ops. So Toronto has actually
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: been able to hit Otani when they faced them, so
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: that's not necessarily great. Now he's going up against Dylan Cease,
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: and the Dodgers are very familiar with Cease because he
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: was on San Diego, so the Dodgers have seen a
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: ton of them. He looks good so far. With the
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: Blue Jays, he was one of their big offseason pickups.
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: But I'm I have my reservations about him. Man. He
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: hasn't gone deep into games, and again that was a
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: problem last year. He threw way too many pitches. Last
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: year he was an inefficient pitcher. And his wildness is
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: still a concern here. He's walked five guys in nine
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: two thirds innings, Man, and he's struck out eighteen. His
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: strikeout rate is absolutely insane. Yeah, he's a really he's
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: a talented bitcher. Man. There's no doubt about that. He
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: could strike guys out at a ridiculous rate. But when
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: you're this wild and you don't go deep into games,
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: you can only do so much, you know. So his
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: era looks pretty good, but his whip is bad again
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: at one point three four, I'm not that sold on
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: cease and he faced a struggling A's lineup in one
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: start and then the White Sox in the other. So
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: those are not particularly good offenses. And now he's going
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: up against the Dodgers that could be a problem. Now,
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: he has been pretty good against them in the past
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: for the most part, even though they're very familiar with him.
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: One hundred and thirty three at bats two thirty three average,
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: allowed six eighty five ops. But the strikeout walk rate
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: is again not good. Forty five strikeouts. That is a
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: lot of strikeouts. That's what really keeps him afloat, but
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: eighteen walks that's also not good. So I got my concerns, man,
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: you know, looking at this game, I'm I would probably
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: lean to an over in this game. I mean know
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: that that sounds kind of insane, but sixty percent of
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: tickets on the over, sixty nine percent of the cash
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: on the under Yesterday's game went under, though the money
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: is coming in on the under, but it seven and
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: a half. With Otani not having good pitching numbers against Toronto.
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: We know the Dodgers are any lead offense. Cease is
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: very familiar to them and has his issues. I don't
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: know that this game stays under, Dude. Even though the
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: Dodgers' bullpen has been good so far, I don't know
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: if I'm completely sold on them. Toronto's bullpen has been
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: pretty atrocious. Maybe Toronto starts hitting a little bit better too. Yeah,
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: I don't see that game really staying under. Uh So
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: that might be the approach here. Dodgers are probably too
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: heavy a favorite at minus one sixty eight eighty five
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets eighty six percent of the cash on
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: them up for minus one fifty two. I mean, I
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: think that's too heavy a price Otani. I mean, I
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: don't know if he deserves that much of a price
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: on him as a road favorite here, especially when he
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: doesn't have good matchup numbers. I'd probably actually lean to
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: Toronto as far as the side getting what I think
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: might be some value as a dog there. But I
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: think maybe the over is the better way to look
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: at that game. Speaking of overs, Houston at Colorado on
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: ESPN Unlimited, MLB Unlimited, whatever, this game. Yeah, this game
• 34:26
  Speaker 1: could definitely go over. We got course Field going on here,
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: and hilariously, Colorado is trying to sweep Houston here. I
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: think maybe they play tomorrow too, I'm not sure, but
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: Colorado's won both games in the series so far, so
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: Houston has cooled off a little bit, and yesterday's game
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: actually stayed under somehow. But we know, man, course field,
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: it's a hitter friendly ballpark, high elevation, this is an
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: afternoon game. Both bullpens are terrible. Houston's bullpen's been awful
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: this year. Colorado's is just as bad as it has
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: been over the last couple of years. So we got
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: bad bullpens. So that's one thing to consider here. Houston
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: used three relieve pitchers yesterday, which isn't too bad. Colorado
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: used one, so the bullpen rest situation is not bad.
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: So there is that. But still you look at this
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: game like, I think, the only way that I could
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: really look at this game is to go over in
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: this one, even though I've said that every game in
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: the series, and we did get a win with the
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: over in game one of the series. Christian Hovier is
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: pitching for Houston. He's been awful so far this year, dude.
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: I mean, just on the surface, his numbers are atrocious.
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: An era of thirteen basically can a whip over two.
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: But you dive into his numbers. Look at these numbers.
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: He's only gone eight and a third innings pitch and
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: he's walked nine guys. He's walking more guys than the
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: amount of innings that he's pitched, and he's allowed even
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: more runs than that, and he only has three strikeouts.
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: I mean, these numbers are so bad. Granted that, yeah,
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: one of his starts was at the A's stadium and
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: pitch sure is basically die in that stadium, but pitchers
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: also die in this stadium, So these numbers don't look good. Dude. Now, Javier,
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: I know he's had an injury, played career or whatever.
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: He's obviously better than this, but he's in really bad
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: for him right now. Yet, his numbers against the Rockies
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: they're zero for thirteen lifetime off and they haven't seen
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: that much of him. They only have four hitters I've
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: ever faced him before, and they have six strikeouts four walks,
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: so it's too many walks. But they don't have a
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: hitoff of the guy, so that you know, I have
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: some reservations about it. But still I would not trust him, really,
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: and I don't trust Michael Lorenza either, who also has
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: really bad numbers this year, even worse actually, with an
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: ERA of almost fifteen and a whip of close to
• 36:45
  Speaker 1: three h He's gone even fewer innings. He's allowed basically
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: a home run every other inning. Six to two strike
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: up walk rato is not even that bad, but he's
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: getting absolutely lit up. Nineteen hits in seven and a
• 36:59
  Speaker 1: third along with those three real runs allowed. Pretty bad.
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: He did face the Phillies in one of his outings,
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: good offense, but still, and that was his debut in
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: course field. Because of course Lorenzo has not pitched for
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: Colorado in his career. I think that might have been
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: his I don't know if that was his first outing
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: in Colorado, but probably not because he's a veteran. But still,
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: he got absolutely shelled in that outing, so I don't
• 37:25
  Speaker 1: think he's very trustworthy at all. Houston, the numbers are
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: all over the place against Houston, sixty two at bats,
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: twelve to six strikeout walk ratio is not good. One
• 37:34
  Speaker 1: ninety four batting average allowed is really good, but seven
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: hundred ohps is somewhat high. Four home runs allowed, I
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: don't like any of that. Again, Yeah, two bad bullpens,
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: two starting pitchers that have been a train wreck so far.
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: Over obviously makes sense to me in this game, and
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: I would not overthink it in this one. Total has
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: actually dropped from twelve and a half to eleven and
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: a half choos to the under, so you're gonna a
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: little bit more value on the total. I would go
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: over in that game if I was gonna do anything
• 38:05
  Speaker 1: with it. Eighty five percent of tickets on the over,
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: but ninety four percent of the cash. As far as
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: the side, Houston is extremely public at minus one fifty
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: on the money line, ninety two percent of tickets, ninety
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: four percent of the cash on Houston. I don't want
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: to try to play a side here, man. I mean,
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: maybe Houston bounces back and avoids a sweet beer because
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: they are still the better team, but hasn't been by
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: a whole lot. And as far as the offenses are concerned,
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: I forgot to mention the offenses. Colorado's offense is not
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: horrible so far this year. They're like they're in like
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: the middle of the pack basically, but they are better
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: at home than they are on the road. And Houston's
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: offense has been really good so far. Still, they're the
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: second best offense in baseball basically so far, which I
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: think will regress a little bit, but still you do
• 38:52
  Speaker 1: have two offenses that actually could get this thing over
• 38:56
  Speaker 1: in this one. So all right, Philadelphia at sand Cisy good? Uh.
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: I think it's a good matchup here man, where it's
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: kind of offense versus pitching. I think generally San Francisco
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: is the better pitching team, Philadelphia is the better offense.
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: San Francisco has been very bad on offense. In fact,
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: they're the worst offensive baseball based on ops. So they
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: were bad last year or too, but I wouldn't expect
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: them to be the absolute worst. But still they haven't
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: been good. Phillies have been middle of the pack, but
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: still the better offense bullpen wise, San Francisco did have
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: a really good bullpen last year. They haven't been quite
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: as good this year so far. I think they're somewhere
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: in the middle of the pack. Where are they actually
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: their bottom third now basically, so San Francisco's bullpen actually
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: has not been that good. Phillies bullpen wasn't very good
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: last year. Where are they at? Phillies have actually been better?
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: I'm surprised you. I'm still trying to like get the
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: lay of the land here. Phillies mased on bullpen whip
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: have been fourth best in Major League Baseball, so you
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: might even actually have an argument that Philly has the
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: better bullpen here, which sounds insane. Philly has used three
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: relievers here. Yesterday they used three, I should say San
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: Francisco on the use two. So the bullpens generally are
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: in pretty good shape here. As far as what's gone
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: on in the series, They've split the first two games,
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: with a shutout from the Giants yesterday six to not
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: things even up the series. Aaron Nola pitching for Philadelphia here,
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: we have to try to gauge is he back or
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: is he not? Because he was good in the past,
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: had a big time injury and is trying to come
• 40:35
  Speaker 1: back for Tommy John surgery, and he really was bad
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: for most of the season last year, but it looked
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: like he started turning it around and this season he's
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: been good so far with a sixteen to three strikeout
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: walk ratio in eleven and a third and he's pitched
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: The home run ball was a concern in his first outing,
• 40:51
  Speaker 1: but he had a good outing in course field in
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: his last outing. Now, I know Colorado's offense is bad,
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: but if you have a one run performance at six
• 40:59
  Speaker 1: and a third course field, I'll give you credit for that. Man.
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: So Nola is pitching pretty well right now. And his
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: numbers against the Giants are good. And they're not a
• 41:07
  Speaker 1: strong lineup. Seventy three at bats worth, twenty five to seven,
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: strike out walk ratio one, seventy eight average allowed, five
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: to ten ops allowed. Nola does have good numbers against
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: the Giants. He'll be going up against Tyler Molly, who
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: kind of ruined our shot at an under in his
• 41:25
  Speaker 1: last game against the Mets. He did not do that well.
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: He's been mediocre this year. Man. He was good for
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: Texas last year, but it seems like every pitcher is
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: better with Texas than they are elsewhere. Although I don't
• 41:38
  Speaker 1: think Molly is anywhere near as bad as he's looked
• 41:40
  Speaker 1: so far this year. And he is pitching in a
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: pitcher from the stadium here, and maybe you gotta give
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: him a little bit of a break because he pitched
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: the against the Yankees and the Mets, and those are
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: good offenses. But Philly is also a good offense, although
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: they haven't been as good as you would expect so
• 41:55
  Speaker 1: far this year. His numbers are not good against them though,
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: fifty two at bats fourteen to six, strike up walk
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: ratio three to zero eight batting average allowed in eight
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: sixty ops. So Molly has not been good against them.
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: So I actually think you have to give Philadelphia an edge,
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: possibly in every phase of this game. I would lean
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: to Philly in this one man, but the money is
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: worrying me there. They dropped from minus one forty to
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: minus one twenty eight. It almost looks too easy to
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: play the Phillies. Uh eighty seven percent of tickets, ninety
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: two percent of the cash on the Phillies. Public is
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: only going to play Philly here because the public just
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: plays the better offense. That's what they do. But as
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: I just showed you, you could make the argument Philly has
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: the better bullpend here if they have the better starting
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: pitcher here potentially, So I don't disagree with Philly, and
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: they're trying to bounce back from a shutout yesterday too,
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: that I think that is the way I would lean
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: in there. It looks like maybe the money might be
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: agreeing with the public there. Sometimes that does happen. So
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: those are my thoughts on that Saint Louis of Washington
• 42:54
  Speaker 1: is an atrocious matchup. Both these teams are bad. Both
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: bullpens have been bad. As far as the offenses are concerned,
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: I don't think there's a whole lot to see there either. Actually, no,
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: I'm wrong about that. Actually I keep forgetting Washington based
• 43:10
  Speaker 1: on ops their third best in Major League Baseball, which
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: makes no sense at Saint Louis's middle of the pack.
• 43:16
  Speaker 1: So these offenses have actually been decent, at least so
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: far this year. Washington has actually been good. Both games
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: have gone over in the series so far, with Washington
• 43:28
  Speaker 1: winning the first game and then Saint Louis came back
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: from the dead yesterday. I liked Washington in both games
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: so far, and Washington was winning that game by three
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: runs in the eighth inning yesterday and they wound up
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: losing an extra innings yesterday. But I do think the
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: offenses might have the upper hand here. Man Like, I
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: don't trust these pitchers. I don't trust the bullpens at all.
• 43:47
  Speaker 1: These are both bottom tier bullpens. They're both in the
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: bottom three in bullpen whips so far. Washington used a
• 43:55
  Speaker 1: lot of relievers yesterday as well, because it went into
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: extra innings. They used five. Saint Louis used three. Still,
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: don't trust the bullpens at all. Offenses, you know, have
• 44:06
  Speaker 1: been doing better than you would think. Michael McGreevy is
• 44:09
  Speaker 1: pitching for Saint Louis. He's actually been okay so far
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: this year. He did have a nice no hit performance
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: against Tampa Bay for six innings, but he wasn't as
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: good against Detroit in his last outing. He didn't last
• 44:21
  Speaker 1: five innings. He got hit quite a bit. He didn't
• 44:23
  Speaker 1: allow any walks, which is good, but he did get
• 44:26
  Speaker 1: hit a bit too much there. His numbers look good overall,
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: but I don't think he's that trustworthy of a pitcher man. However,
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: Washington's never faced him before, so he might have a
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: little bit of an edge there. So like I lean
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: over in this game, but I would worry a little
• 44:41
  Speaker 1: bit because even though I don't trust McGreevy, I don't
• 44:43
  Speaker 1: think he's as good as his numbers look. He might
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: have an edge here because Washington's never faced him before,
• 44:49
  Speaker 1: so that might be an extra edge for him. Miles
• 44:52
  Speaker 1: Micholis is pitching for Washington. We know he stinks, dude.
• 44:55
  Speaker 1: He's been awful so far this year. He gave him
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: eleven runs in his last outing. It's the Dodgers. He's
• 45:01
  Speaker 1: got almost a fifteen ERA and a whip over two.
• 45:05
  Speaker 1: Not good. He's given up five home runs in nine
• 45:08
  Speaker 1: to the third innings, along with seventeen hits, fifteen earned runs,
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: four walks, eight strike cuts. Isn't even that bad. But
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: he's not even really a strike cup pitcher. Granted, he
• 45:18
  Speaker 1: had to face the Cubs and the Dodgers. Those are
• 45:21
  Speaker 1: not easy offenses to face, and facing Saint Louis will
• 45:24
  Speaker 1: be easier. But I don't like it, man, I do
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: not like it. But even though he sucks, he might
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: come out and pitch well here because he is coming
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: off a really bad effort, so he might want to
• 45:35
  Speaker 1: bounce back from that. But also he's facing the team
• 45:38
  Speaker 1: that got rid of him. He was on Saint Louis
• 45:41
  Speaker 1: for the majority of his career. He's been on Saint Louis.
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: It's twenty eighteen since they basically gave him a shot,
• 45:48
  Speaker 1: Like he had been out of baseball for four years
• 45:51
  Speaker 1: and Saint Louis gave him a shot, and that was
• 45:53
  Speaker 1: basically his entire career. So I think now the fact
• 45:57
  Speaker 1: that Saint Louis got rid of him, he might want
• 45:59
  Speaker 1: to come in and like prove that he still has
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: it and pitch well against them. So he might actually
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: have motivation here and maybe has a little bit of
• 46:07
  Speaker 1: an edge because Saint Louis has never faced it before,
• 46:10
  Speaker 1: basically because he's been on their team. But because he
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: was there, they kind of know what his tendencies are,
• 46:15
  Speaker 1: you know what I mean, So they're gonna know what
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: he's gonna throw at them. But the thing is facing
• 46:21
  Speaker 1: him in a real environment. They haven't done that. So
• 46:24
  Speaker 1: there is that only your Rius has ever faced it before.
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: Urreus one for two, often with a single, so nothing
• 46:32
  Speaker 1: to really gauge there. Still I don't trust either starting
• 46:36
  Speaker 1: or here. I think over makes sense in this game.
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: The money is coming in on the under though, totals
• 46:41
  Speaker 1: at eight and a half, eighty four percent of tickets
• 46:43
  Speaker 1: on the over and sixty one percent of the cash
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: on the under. I mean, I gave you the arguments
• 46:49
  Speaker 1: why I would be hesitant to want to really go
• 46:51
  Speaker 1: over here, and I guess those would be the same
• 46:53
  Speaker 1: arguments for the under. I don't think there's strong arguments
• 46:58
  Speaker 1: for the under though. I don't know. I lean over here,
• 47:00
  Speaker 1: but I don't want to play the game at all.
• 47:02
  Speaker 1: Saint Louis is minus one eighteen here. I don't know
• 47:05
  Speaker 1: that they really deserve to be a favorite here. But
• 47:07
  Speaker 1: Micholas is not very good eighty nine percent of tickets,
• 47:10
  Speaker 1: ninety five percent of the cash on Saint Louis there.
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: I mean, yeah, I guess you can make the argument
• 47:18
  Speaker 1: that McGreevy is better generally than Mikolas. So I guess
• 47:22
  Speaker 1: that's the argument for Saint Louis there. For the most part.
• 47:25
  Speaker 1: Bullpen's kind of a wash there, not a washing Ton Awash.
• 47:32
  Speaker 1: So yeah, I guess I will lean to Saint Louis
• 47:34
  Speaker 1: slightly there, which probably means they're gonna lose, but I
• 47:39
  Speaker 1: want nothing to do with it. Atlanta at Anaheim here,
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: these teams have split the first two games. I think
• 47:45
  Speaker 1: this might be a four game series here. I'm not
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: sure Atlanta won yesterday seven to two. The game went
• 47:52
  Speaker 1: slightly over I think I think I liked the over
• 47:55
  Speaker 1: in yesterday's game. Now, Atlanta's bullpen has been really good
• 47:58
  Speaker 1: so far though, that's been the one really good thing
• 48:01
  Speaker 1: about the team. Their bullpen has been completely lights out,
• 48:04
  Speaker 1: which is pretty crazy, but it's good because their offense
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: hasn't been that good. Anaheim's bullpen is pretty bad. They're
• 48:12
  Speaker 1: like a bottom third bullpen, and they haven't been as
• 48:15
  Speaker 1: bad as you would think, but Atlanta definitely has a
• 48:18
  Speaker 1: better bullpen. Atlanta. Actually they have been hitting well too.
• 48:21
  Speaker 1: Their fifth in offense so far this year, and Anaheim
• 48:24
  Speaker 1: is bottom third as well. So Atlanta actually has kind
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: of a significant edge in the bullpen and in the
• 48:29
  Speaker 1: offense here. As far as what happened yesterday, Atlanta did
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: use a lot of their bullpen though they used five
• 48:37
  Speaker 1: relief pitchers yesterday, so that's not great. So even though
• 48:40
  Speaker 1: they have a bullpen edge, the rest edge might not
• 48:42
  Speaker 1: totally be there. Anaheim I still wouldn't trust their bullpen.
• 48:46
  Speaker 1: They did only use two relief pitchers yesterday though, so
• 48:49
  Speaker 1: their bullpen is in better shape at the very least.
• 48:52
  Speaker 1: Grant Holmes pitching for Atlanta based on last year, he
• 48:55
  Speaker 1: is not as good on the road, but he did
• 48:58
  Speaker 1: just pitch really well in Arizona, went six innings of
• 49:01
  Speaker 1: one hit, shutout ball against an offense that should be
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: decent in in a hitter friendly park. He did that,
• 49:08
  Speaker 1: but his walk numbers are concerned. He's got an eight
• 49:10
  Speaker 1: to five strike out walk ratio this season, so he's
• 49:13
  Speaker 1: been pretty unhittable, but he's kind of wild, so that's
• 49:16
  Speaker 1: maybe a little bit of an issue here. Anaheim has
• 49:19
  Speaker 1: not had good numbers off him. They're pretty unfamiliar with him.
• 49:22
  Speaker 1: In eighteen at bats, they only have one hit, no
• 49:25
  Speaker 1: extra base hits, ten strikeouts, and two walks, so he's
• 49:28
  Speaker 1: really held them down in fifty six average at two
• 49:31
  Speaker 1: O six ops. So Holmes has done alright against them,
• 49:36
  Speaker 1: better than alright Reed Debt Mess. Pitching for the Angels,
• 49:39
  Speaker 1: he's been moving between their bullpen and their starting rotation.
• 49:42
  Speaker 1: He's been okay so far this year. Thirteen to four
• 49:46
  Speaker 1: strike up walk ratio and eleven and a third innings.
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: His numbers are all pretty good, but he did walk
• 49:52
  Speaker 1: four guys in his last outing against Seattle, so that
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: worries me a little bit. Against Atlanta, his numbers are
• 49:57
  Speaker 1: not that good. In sixty seven at bats, teen of
• 50:00
  Speaker 1: five strang a walk rations pretty good, but two eighty
• 50:03
  Speaker 1: four average allowed seven to eighty one ops overall not
• 50:07
  Speaker 1: the greatest of numbers there. For det Mercy Holmes might
• 50:09
  Speaker 1: actually have a starting pitching edge here, which I guess
• 50:13
  Speaker 1: is gonna mean I gotta lean to Atlanta here in
• 50:15
  Speaker 1: this one. Where are we at here? Atlanta looks like
• 50:21
  Speaker 1: they are getting the money. They're at minus one twenty here.
• 50:23
  Speaker 1: It almost looks too easy to play Atlanta, But I
• 50:26
  Speaker 1: think you could definitely make the argument they have the
• 50:28
  Speaker 1: edge everywhere here, but their bullpen is not rested, so
• 50:30
  Speaker 1: I do worry about that. If you wanted to go
• 50:33
  Speaker 1: first five innings with Atlanta, that might make a little
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: bit more sense and just play off of what appears
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: to be a starting pitching edge for them here, and
• 50:41
  Speaker 1: then you don't have to worry about their unrested bullpen.
• 50:43
  Speaker 1: Eighty two percent of tickets, ninety five percent of the
• 50:46
  Speaker 1: cash on Atlanta. I wouldn't really disagree with full game
• 50:49
  Speaker 1: either though, because Anaheim's bullpen still is not good. So
• 50:53
  Speaker 1: there is that dirty sock. What's up man? Thanks for
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: hanging out. Yeah, yesterday, I'm really really lucky yesterday, though,
• 51:02
  Speaker 1: I mean, I'll take the lock, but I think I
• 51:05
  Speaker 1: did not do well with yesterday's handicaps. I feel a
• 51:09
  Speaker 1: little bit better about the games today, but that probably
• 51:12
  Speaker 1: means they're gonna lose Arizona at the Mets. These two
• 51:17
  Speaker 1: teams only have played once so far, with the Mets
• 51:22
  Speaker 1: winning four to three yesterday. These teams are gonna play tomorrow,
• 51:25
  Speaker 1: I think as well. I think it's a weird schedule.
• 51:27
  Speaker 1: I think they didn't play the game before that. I
• 51:29
  Speaker 1: don't know. I don't think there was a rain out,
• 51:31
  Speaker 1: but maybe there was. I don't know. Anyway, as far
• 51:36
  Speaker 1: as these two teams, Arizona's bullpen is bad, so I
• 51:38
  Speaker 1: think you gotta give the Mets a bullpen edge year.
• 51:41
  Speaker 1: Arizona's offense actually hasn't lived up to the Billings so
• 51:44
  Speaker 1: far this year either, so the Mets probably have the
• 51:46
  Speaker 1: advantage there too. Their top ten offense so far this year,
• 51:49
  Speaker 1: and the d Backs have actually been in the bottom ten,
• 51:52
  Speaker 1: even though I expect them to turn that around a
• 51:54
  Speaker 1: little bit. D Backs have actually been middle of the
• 51:56
  Speaker 1: pack as far as Whip is concerned, bullpen wise, their
• 52:00
  Speaker 1: bullpen era is atrocious. I still think their bullpen is
• 52:03
  Speaker 1: pretty atrocious, so and They're the only bullpen in baseball
• 52:06
  Speaker 1: with all right handed arms, which is ridiculous. So they
• 52:10
  Speaker 1: can't even play like the lefty versus lefty matchups if
• 52:13
  Speaker 1: they want to, like you would think they would just
• 52:17
  Speaker 1: go out and get a lefty. It makes no sense.
• 52:20
  Speaker 1: And the Mets bullpen where they at. Yeah, they've been good.
• 52:22
  Speaker 1: They're a top five bullpens, so the Mets do have
• 52:25
  Speaker 1: an edge there as well. The Mets, you know, definitely
• 52:28
  Speaker 1: have some advantages here. We know they're the better team here.
• 52:31
  Speaker 1: Ryan Nelson is also pitching for Arizona. You know, I'm
• 52:34
  Speaker 1: not a fan. His era looks bad, but his whip
• 52:37
  Speaker 1: is actually better than that this year, so his whip
• 52:40
  Speaker 1: kind of indicates that his era should not be this bad.
• 52:43
  Speaker 1: But even so, he has six walks at seven strikeouts
• 52:47
  Speaker 1: this season. He's only gone nine and a third innings
• 52:49
  Speaker 1: in two starts, so obviously that's not gonna cut it. Like,
• 52:53
  Speaker 1: even though his whip looks good, his numbers are still
• 52:56
  Speaker 1: really bad. He's allowed two of them runs in each
• 52:58
  Speaker 1: start so far. You know, me, I'm not an Nelson fan.
• 53:01
  Speaker 1: I don't know how he was as good as he
• 53:03
  Speaker 1: was last year. Pine Tarring his hand or something. Maybe.
• 53:06
  Speaker 1: I don't know, man, not an Nelson fan, don't think
• 53:09
  Speaker 1: he's good. Numbers against the Mets are pretty questionable. In
• 53:14
  Speaker 1: fifty at bats, he does have a really good sixteen
• 53:16
  Speaker 1: to two strike out walk ratio, but he's allowed three
• 53:19
  Speaker 1: triples to them four home runs. He's held him to
• 53:22
  Speaker 1: a two forty average, but in eight sixty nine ops,
• 53:25
  Speaker 1: so a lot of extra base hits off him. I
• 53:28
  Speaker 1: don't really expect Nelson to pitch that well here. But
• 53:31
  Speaker 1: he's also going up against another guy, who, of course
• 53:34
  Speaker 1: is one of my favorites, David Peterson, who I don't
• 53:37
  Speaker 1: think is very good. His whip is terrible so far
• 53:40
  Speaker 1: this year, one point nine to seven, indicating that his
• 53:44
  Speaker 1: four point sixty six whip is lower than it should be.
• 53:47
  Speaker 1: He's getting lucky again. Man. He's a guy that I
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: think just bails himself out of jams with a lot
• 53:52
  Speaker 1: of like groundouts and stuff. Man. I mean, he puts
• 53:55
  Speaker 1: way too many guys on base, and this year it's
• 53:58
  Speaker 1: been via the hit so against the Pirates at San Francisco,
• 54:02
  Speaker 1: which are not the loudest lineups, especially San Francisco on
• 54:06
  Speaker 1: the road. He just hasn't been good. Man, he's given
• 54:09
  Speaker 1: up fifteen hits in nine to two thirds innings. That's bad.
• 54:12
  Speaker 1: Eight to four strike up walk ratio doesn't impress me either,
• 54:16
  Speaker 1: not good stuff. His numbers not great against Arizona either,
• 54:19
  Speaker 1: in fifty one at bats twelve five strike up walk
• 54:23
  Speaker 1: ratios pretty lousy. Two seventy five batting average allowed seven
• 54:26
  Speaker 1: to seventy one ops. Also not good. So I'd probably
• 54:32
  Speaker 1: go over in this one. The totals at seven and
• 54:35
  Speaker 1: a half. What are we doing here? Man? Really? Seven
• 54:40
  Speaker 1: and a half? Really? With Ryan Nelson against David Peterson
• 54:44
  Speaker 1: seven and a half? Are you serious with two offenses
• 54:47
  Speaker 1: that I still consider to at least be competent. And
• 54:51
  Speaker 1: you know the bullpens well, at least one of the
• 54:54
  Speaker 1: bullpens is terrible as far as the usage yet, and
• 54:58
  Speaker 1: Arizona used a lot of relievers, yes, today five The
• 55:02
  Speaker 1: Mets used a bunch of theirs too, so the bullpens
• 55:04
  Speaker 1: are not in good rest shape. What are we doing here? Man?
• 55:08
  Speaker 1: All the money is actually indicating on the under here
• 55:10
  Speaker 1: eighty nine percent of the tickets and eighty two percent
• 55:12
  Speaker 1: of the cash on the over. There's no way. Yeah,
• 55:16
  Speaker 1: I would definitely, I think the best way to play
• 55:18
  Speaker 1: this game is the over, Like again seven and a half,
• 55:21
  Speaker 1: Like that's a number that's reserved for, like like you
• 55:25
  Speaker 1: need the bullpens to do their end of things as well,
• 55:28
  Speaker 1: and that that type of number is reserved for like
• 55:30
  Speaker 1: an ACE pitching matchup. And look at this shit, Nelson
• 55:33
  Speaker 1: and Peterson, come on, man, But again, if the books
• 55:37
  Speaker 1: put a number that low, like, they're not throwing money away,
• 55:40
  Speaker 1: they're telling you something with that number. But I just
• 55:43
  Speaker 1: it baffles me, dude, it really does. I would go
• 55:45
  Speaker 1: over in that game. All the Mets are at minus
• 55:48
  Speaker 1: one thirty one up for minus one seventeen. It looks
• 55:50
  Speaker 1: like the Mets are getting the money seventy six percent
• 55:53
  Speaker 1: of tickets, ninety two percent of the cash on the Mets.
• 55:56
  Speaker 1: I don't disagree with the Mets, man. I think Nelson
• 55:58
  Speaker 1: is probably worse than p even though I don't like
• 56:02
  Speaker 1: either of them. I think, again, the Mets have a
• 56:04
  Speaker 1: better offense and a better bullpen, so I'm not gonna
• 56:07
  Speaker 1: disagree with the Mets there. But yeah, I think over
• 56:10
  Speaker 1: is probably my preferred way playing that. Oh god, all right,
• 56:14
  Speaker 1: we're in the evening slate now, and I have one
• 56:16
  Speaker 1: evening bet for you as well. So here we go
• 56:23
  Speaker 1: in baseball, I mean I do have a hockey one
• 56:25
  Speaker 1: as well. We're gonna play the Tampa Bay Rays on
• 56:27
  Speaker 1: the money line here. I'm hoping that maybe their bullpen's
• 56:31
  Speaker 1: gonna start turning it around here. Man. The public I
• 56:34
  Speaker 1: think is gonna come in on the Chicago Cubs here.
• 56:36
  Speaker 1: They got the better name recognition whatever. Tampa, they're finally
• 56:39
  Speaker 1: getting to play in their home stadium again, so they
• 56:41
  Speaker 1: should have a little bit of an extra home advantage.
• 56:44
  Speaker 1: Maybe once they get things going, should be better than
• 56:47
  Speaker 1: playing in Steinbrenner Field. The Yankees spring training team Tampa
• 56:51
  Speaker 1: is back at the trop so they should at least
• 56:54
  Speaker 1: have that bit of an advantage here, not that that's
• 56:58
  Speaker 1: worth that much. Tampa. I know they used three relief
• 57:01
  Speaker 1: pitchers yesterday, but and they used them heavily, but they
• 57:04
  Speaker 1: were kind of, you know, they're not their high leverage
• 57:08
  Speaker 1: relief men, you know what I mean. These were their
• 57:10
  Speaker 1: like innings eating relievers. So I think I'm okay with that.
• 57:16
  Speaker 1: And the Cubs they used four relief pitchers yesterday, but
• 57:20
  Speaker 1: I think some they're more high leverage men kind of
• 57:22
  Speaker 1: got into the game yesterday. So I'm okay with going
• 57:26
  Speaker 1: full game on this. If you want to go first five,
• 57:28
  Speaker 1: you could do that too. Now, Tampa Bay did lose
• 57:32
  Speaker 1: yesterday pretty ugly, nine to two. They won the first
• 57:34
  Speaker 1: game in their first game back at the Trap since
• 57:37
  Speaker 1: it was destroyed by the hurricane. They did well in
• 57:40
  Speaker 1: that game, lost yesterday, But I think we might have
• 57:43
  Speaker 1: a bounce back here, man, looking at what these teams
• 57:45
  Speaker 1: have done over the course of the season. Looking at
• 57:49
  Speaker 1: the hitting, Tampa Bay is actually their seventh in overall ops.
• 57:53
  Speaker 1: So Tampa Bay has been a good offense, believe it
• 57:57
  Speaker 1: or not. So far this year, they've hit well, even
• 57:59
  Speaker 1: though they're kind of an imbalanced offense. I think they're
• 58:02
  Speaker 1: top six in their order tend to hit really well,
• 58:05
  Speaker 1: and then the bottom three are basically like a black hole,
• 58:08
  Speaker 1: so they have a huge gaps in their lineup. The
• 58:11
  Speaker 1: Cubs have been a mid tier offense, even though you
• 58:14
  Speaker 1: could make the argument that the Cubs are the better offense generally,
• 58:17
  Speaker 1: but that hasn't been the case so far this year.
• 58:20
  Speaker 1: Bullpen wise, you know, Tampa Bay does have to get better.
• 58:25
  Speaker 1: They're in the bottom tier in bullpen, which does worry
• 58:28
  Speaker 1: me a bit. They gotta get better, man, they were
• 58:30
  Speaker 1: better last year. Cubs have had the better bullpen, So yeah,
• 58:34
  Speaker 1: that does warring me a little bit. So again, if
• 58:36
  Speaker 1: you wanted to go first five on this, you could
• 58:38
  Speaker 1: do that if you want to. But I think the
• 58:40
  Speaker 1: usage amongst the high leverage guys kind of balances this
• 58:43
  Speaker 1: out a little bit. First five, you're gonna get a
• 58:46
  Speaker 1: little bit less of you're gonna get a worse price.
• 58:49
  Speaker 1: I mean, you're gonna have to pay more for Tampa
• 58:51
  Speaker 1: Bay in the first five. Colin Ray is pitching for
• 58:54
  Speaker 1: the Cubs here. His era looks okay, but his whip
• 58:57
  Speaker 1: is bad at one point four to two. And you know,
• 58:59
  Speaker 1: I'm not a Colin Ray fan. I don't think he's
• 59:01
  Speaker 1: that good. Yeah. I mean, good for him that he
• 59:04
  Speaker 1: was able to go out to Japan and you know,
• 59:06
  Speaker 1: he pitched in the Japanese leagues for a while, fixed
• 59:09
  Speaker 1: his shit, and he came back to the majors and
• 59:12
  Speaker 1: resurrected his career. Yeah, good for him. He does have
• 59:15
  Speaker 1: an eight to one strike out walk ratio this year,
• 59:17
  Speaker 1: which is pretty good. But I still don't trust him, man,
• 59:21
  Speaker 1: I just don't. And he's been a relief pitcher so
• 59:23
  Speaker 1: far this year, so I don't know how many innings.
• 59:26
  Speaker 1: That's the other thing. That's why part of the reason
• 59:27
  Speaker 1: I'm going full game on this, although first five still
• 59:30
  Speaker 1: might make sense because I think the Cubs are gonna
• 59:32
  Speaker 1: be the first team to go to the bullpen here
• 59:35
  Speaker 1: because Ray has been pitching out of the bullpen even
• 59:38
  Speaker 1: though yes, he was a starter last year. You might
• 59:40
  Speaker 1: not get a full compliment of innings out of him
• 59:43
  Speaker 1: in this game. And his numbers against the Rays are
• 59:45
  Speaker 1: pretty bad. In thirty six at bats. This is kind
• 59:48
  Speaker 1: of the crux of the whole handicap. Two to five
• 59:51
  Speaker 1: strike out walk ratio is really bad, but he's also
• 59:54
  Speaker 1: allowed four home runs to them, three to nine, batting
• 59:56
  Speaker 1: average oneenty two thirteen. Ohps, that's all really really bad.
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 1: He's going up against Joe Boyle, who might actually be
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 1: a good pitcher man, I don't know. He's got a
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 1: thirteen to three strikeout walk ratio this year. Off to
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 1: a pretty decent start, he's gone, you know, kind of
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 1: a full starter's workload. Now. They did ramp him up
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 1: to over one hundred pitches in his last outing, which
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 1: worries me a little bit because he was inefficient in
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 1: that game. Against Minnesota, and it worries me that, you know,
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 1: maybe that'll tire him a little bit. But the good
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 1: things are that he's young and this is really early
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 1: in the season, so I don't think he's gonna be
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 1: like totally wiped out or anything by having a one
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 1: hundred pitch effort. And it wasn't a particularly great effort either,
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 1: But overall, yeah, he's got strike up potential. His numbers
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 1: overall look pretty good. Now, I know Saint Louis and
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 1: Minnesota those are bad offenses. Yeah, he's having to step
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 1: up in class to face the Cubs, but they only
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 1: have four hitters who've ever faced it before. They have
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 1: twelve at bats off him. They only have one hit,
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 1: a single from Bregman. Bregman just broke out of a
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 1: slump yesterday, the slump discontinued, and yeah, he's a good hitter,
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 1: but still I don't know if that's gonna be enough
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 1: off They have four strikeouts, one walk off him overall
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 1: eighty three batting average a two thirty seven OPS. Now,
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 1: you don't want to read too much into a small
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 1: sample size, but the one thing that you can say
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 1: is that I think Boyle is a pretty talented young pitcher,
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 1: and the Cubs have never faced him before, so I
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 1: think that is an advantage to him if you look
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 1: at what he did, you know, last year when he
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 1: came into the league. I know his numbers don't look
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 1: that good, but he's kind of improved a bit. Uh really,
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 1: just his control needs to get better, like that was
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 1: really kind of his issue. Is like he was always
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 1: pretty unhittable and had good stuff, good strikeouts, but his
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 1: walk number has been terrible, and that is fixable a
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 1: lot of times for these young pitchers. And then we
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 1: go and we look at the market. Here, the money's
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 1: agreeing with me on Tampa Bay. Here we have the
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 1: public coming in on the Cubs, sixty four percent of
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 1: the tickets on them, fifty one percent of the cash
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 1: on Tampa Bay. They're sitting at minus one oh five. Again,
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 1: if you wanted to go first five innings, you could
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 1: do that too, But I think we might be looking
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 1: at dude. I just don't know. I don't want to
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 1: try to gauge how long Colin Ray is going to
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 1: go in this game. And if you want to, if
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 1: you're worried about Colin Ray not actually starting this game
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 1: and the cub's throwing an opener in front of him,
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 1: which they might do, you could go action on this.
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 1: I always forget to mention that, which means that your
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 1: action is going to be taken regardless of where the
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 1: starters are, because the default when you bet baseball is
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 1: that the listed starters must start. And usually that's what
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 1: you want to do, because the starters are a big
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 1: part of the handicap. But in a case like this
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 1: where you pretty much know Ray is going to be
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 1: throwing at least three innings somewhere early in this game,
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 1: and you want that to be part of it, but
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 1: you don't know if he's actually going to start the game,
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 1: like they might throw an opener in front of him.
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 1: And if they did that and you went with pitchers
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 1: must start, then your bet would just get voided, whereas
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 1: if you go action, it'll get taken regardless. So this
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 1: one might be one where you want to go action.
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 1: But let me see, have they used an opener in
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 1: front of him? Let me say, at least see what
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 1: they did in his last outing here. Actually they did
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 1: they used k Actually no, because Kate Horton is not
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 1: an opener. Kate Whorton is actually a good picture. Man.
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 1: I think Horton must have gotten hurt because yeah, that
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 1: I don't think that was really a true opener game there.
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 1: I think Ray came in and relief because I think
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 1: Horton got injured or something. Holy shit, he tore his ucl.
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 1: He's out for the season. Holy shit, that is a
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 1: huge blow to the Cobs. Dude, Kate Horton. Yeah, he
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 1: was one of their best young pictures. Dude. That is
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 1: such a blow to the Cobs. Like right out of
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 1: the gate, that was like his second start. That is horrible, dude.
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 1: So Ray, I think it's taking his spot in the rotation.
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 1: Holy shit, that is bad. But yes, that was not
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 1: actually a planned opener there. So while I didn't even
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 1: realize that that's really really bad, wow, because eventually I
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 1: was gonna be like, where's Kate Orton? Man, why hasn't
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 1: he pitched for a while? Shit? Man, that is bad.
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 1: And yeah, Ray was like a Ray came in at
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 1: the end of the game in relief of Edward Cabrera
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 1: and the other the other time he pitched. So yeah,
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 1: I think you're fine going. Pitchers must start in this one.
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 1: I don't think they're gonna use an opener here. I
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 1: think Ray will be the starter in this one because
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 1: they pretty much have to do it because he's taking
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 1: Horton's spot in the rotation. I think that's why he
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 1: hasn't pitched since that game. I think they basically just said, Okay,
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 1: we're gonna put you on a starter's rest. Now. Wow,
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 1: that's awful, But yes, we are going with Tampa Bay
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 1: in that game. But yes we will see again. If
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 1: you want to go first five innings, you could do
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 1: that too, but you might have to lay about minus
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 1: one twenty to get Tampa in the first five innings.
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 1: All right, Cincinnati and Miami, let's try to get this
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 1: show done. Man. At least, there's very little and and
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 1: stuff to do today. This game went into extra innings yesterday.
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 1: These teams are playing a four game series, so they're
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 1: playing tomorrow as well. Now Cincinnati has won both games
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 1: in the series of ours. Miami starts regressing after their
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 1: hot start, which was nothing to really read into because
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 1: they beat the Rockies in the White Sox. Miami might
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 1: get up for this game though, because they're gonna try
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 1: to avoid getting swept, although they could win tomorrow too.
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 1: As far as the bullpen, you sugg yesterday. Cincinnati used
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 1: four relief pitchers yesterday, which is not great. Miami used three,
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 1: So dude, Cad Horton's gonna have to have Tommy John surgery. Man.
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 1: That is so insane. Oh my god. But anyway, yeah,
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 1: back to this game. Miami is a little bit less
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 1: of their bullpen. Now. Yes, over the course of the season,
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 1: Miami's bullpen has been better than the Reds, but they
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 1: are starting to fall off quite a bit. Oh no,
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 1: actually they're worse than the Reds now my mistake. So
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 1: the Reds actually probably do have the better bullpen. Miami
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 1: just started well out of the bullpen because of the
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 1: bad teams they were playing, but now that they played
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 1: some good teams, their bullpen is fall falling off a bit. Again,
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 1: these numbers don't mean everything this early in the season,
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 1: but maybe the Reds do have the better bullpen. Miami
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 1: is still sixth offensively based on ops, with the Reds
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 1: being somewhere in the middle of the pack I think
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 1: where they I know the Reds are in the bottom
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 1: like four. That's not good. So Miami might actually have
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 1: an offensive edge in this game, believe it or not.
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 1: As far as the starting pitching. Brady Singer is pitching
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 1: for the Reds here not off to a good start,
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 1: although if you look at his actual numbers, like you
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 1: dive into his numbers a little bit deeper, he's not
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 1: really as bad as his surface numbers look. And we
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 1: know that based on his career numbers, he's not this bad.
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 1: Five ERA, one point five to six whip. That's bad,
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 1: but like his last outing was pretty good against Texas.
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 1: He went five innings to hour and runs, allowed five strikeouts,
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 1: one wall overall, ten to three strike up walk ratio,
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 1: So I think Singer, yeah, I'm not worried about him. Really,
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 1: I gainst Miami, he's got decent numbers in twenty four
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 1: at bats four to zero, strike up walk ratio, two
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 1: fifty batting irish five eighty three oh ps. Those are
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 1: pretty good numbers. So I don't think Singer is gonna
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 1: be bad in this game. He's going up against Uri Perez,
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 1: and you know I am a fan of Perez. His
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 1: RA doesn't look good either. His whip is a little
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 1: bit high, although it still indicates that his ERA should
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 1: be better than it is, but it's really just because
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 1: he had one pretty bad start against the Yankees. Of course,
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 1: the Yankees are good, man, but he just he walked
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 1: six guys. Dude, he got wild in that game and
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 1: the game kind of unraveled a bit. I'm not gonna
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 1: knock him too much for that. And of course, yes,
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 1: he did do well against a bad Colorado offense, but
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 1: going from facing Colorado to the Yankees is a huge
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 1: step up. Now he gets to face kind of middle
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 1: of the road or actually kind of bad offense in
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 1: the Reds. I think Perez should have a better outing
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 1: this time. Generally, I think he is good, like super talented,
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 1: actually young pitcher with big time strikeout stuff. It's just
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 1: that I think he's already had two Tommie John surgeries
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 1: before the age of twenty two. But again, these young pitchers,
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 1: when they're this young, they usually bounce back better. And
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 1: he has been good overall. In thirty three at bats
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 1: against the Reds, a ten to four strikeout walk Razio. Again,
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 1: it's too many walks, but one eight two batting average,
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 1: allowed seven to fifty five ohps. Is a little bit
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 1: concerning that he's allowed two of them runs in a
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 1: triple to them, But overall, I actually think Perez should
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 1: do well here as well. I like both starting pitchers
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 1: in this game. Actually, I'd probably be leaning towards some
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 1: sort of under in this game. I think, me, you
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 1: could go full game under here. You're getting under seven
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 1: and a half. It is flipping from juice to the over,
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 1: to juice to the under here fifty percent of tickets
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 1: fifty seven percent of the cash on the under. I
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 1: do agree with the under in this one. Miami is
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 1: also kind of a pitcher friendly park as well. Even
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 1: though it's usually hot there, they do have kind of
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 1: a it's like a semi roofed stadium. I think when
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 1: it gets too hot, I think they might even close
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 1: the roof to try to cool it down a bit,
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 1: which I think Houston does as well. But Miami is
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 1: kind of a more cavernous stadium there. But yeah, I
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 1: like the under. I mean, I'm not too concerned about
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 1: the bullpens here either, so full game under kind of
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 1: makes sense to me in this one. First five also
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 1: makes sense if you did want to do it that way.
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 1: Miami looks like they're getting a bit of the money.
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 1: Up to minus one thirty eighty five percent of tickets,
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 1: ninety six percent of the cash on Miami. What I
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 1: will say about Miami is, you know, I mean I
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 1: worry a little bit that their bullpen is not as
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 1: good as it looked early in the season. Maybe first
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 1: five inning on Miami. That might make more sense on
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 1: the side there. But the thing that I will say
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 1: is that I think Perez has a higher ceiling than Singer.
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 1: Like I think when Perez is at his best, he's
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 1: like almost elite, But when he's at his worst, he
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 1: kind of stinks. So that's the thing. He has more va,
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 1: he has way more variance or I think Singer is
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 1: a bit more consistent, So let's just put it that way,
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 1: if that makes sense. But I think Singer doesn't have
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 1: as high as ceiling. And we basically know, like Perez
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 1: is so young, he could really take off Singer. I mean,
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 1: he's deeper into his career, so we kind of know
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 1: what he is at this point. If all that makes sense.
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 1: But yeah, I wouldn't really disagree with the Miami side
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 1: and that one in general, the A's are at the Yankees.
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 1: The A's blew the game yesterday, like dude. The Yankees
• 1:10:28
  Speaker 1: wound up covering the run line, which one of my
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 1: recommendations yesterday was Yankees run line. My other recommendation was
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 1: as under their team total if I remember, and I
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 1: think that might have hit because they only scored three runs.
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 1: But the A's are winning that game three to one,
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure, and the Yankees. Of course, the Yankees
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 1: touched up the A's bullpen wound up getting the win anyway,
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 1: because the A's bullpen sucks. So even though Schlittler was
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 1: not the greatest yesterday, the Yankees still won the game.
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 1: I'm not happy about it. Red Sox are in for
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 1: a long season. It looks like, man, although I think
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 1: they're better than the record looks so far, the Yankees
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 1: look well on their way to winning this division. It
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 1: looks like Baltimore is just not good enough, Tampa's not
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 1: good enough. Jay's look like they're taking a big step back.
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 1: I actually think the Red Sox are the second best
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 1: team of this division man, which I said in my
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 1: season preview as well. Like, even with their bad start,
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 1: I still think the Red Sox are the second best
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 1: team in this division. But I think the Yankees are
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 1: gonna run away with it at this point, which is
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 1: not good. Even though the Red Sox have actually played
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 1: the Yankees really well over the last few years. They
• 1:11:33
  Speaker 1: seem to really get up for those games. But anyway,
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 1: we're talking about Yankees, A is here. What are we
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 1: gonna do with this game? I don't know, man, I mean,
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 1: I'm staying away from it. But looking at the bullpens here,
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 1: the Yankees bullpen is the better bullpen. They use four
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 1: relief pitchers yesterday, though A's only US three. But I'm
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 1: still gonna give the Yankees a bullpen edge. Their bullpen
• 1:11:53
  Speaker 1: has been good, although they've been struggling a little bit
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 1: more recently. They've dropped to eleventh on in whip, which
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 1: is what I use. As I said, the A's bullpen
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 1: is still atrocious though in fact, they're the absolute worst
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 1: in baseball based on whipp and it's by a significant margin,
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 1: even though if you look at ERA this isn't the worst,
• 1:12:12
  Speaker 1: but still their bullpen is trash. So the Yankees have
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 1: the better bullpen. The Yankees have the better offense, even
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 1: though I only have them ranked ninth right now because
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 1: it's based off of ops, we know the Yankees are
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 1: still like a top offense. Man, They're gonna wind up
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 1: probably in the top five offenses. I would guess maybe
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 1: even higher. The A's offense should be good. They got
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 1: a lot of young talent here, but they haven't been
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 1: good so far this year. The A's have been in
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 1: the bottom third, although I think they will actually improve,
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 1: but the Yankees obviously have an edge in both departments there,
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 1: the bullpen and the hitting. Luis Severnino is pitching for
• 1:12:50
  Speaker 1: the A's and the thing about him last year is
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 1: he was really bad pitching in the A's stadium last year,
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 1: in that Triple A park, but he was a lot
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 1: better on the road. But that has not been the
• 1:13:00
  Speaker 1: case this year. Both of his starts have been on
• 1:13:02
  Speaker 1: the road this year and he's been awful. So seven Reno,
• 1:13:07
  Speaker 1: I mean, he's just not a good form right now.
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 1: His strikeouts have been there, ten strikeouts, but eight walks
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 1: is just really bad. In eight and a third innings pitch,
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 1: the walks really have been the like. That's been the
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 1: one problem with him is the walks. He's got to
• 1:13:20
  Speaker 1: get that under control, and then if he does that,
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 1: he'll pitch better against the Yankees. He has not done
• 1:13:27
  Speaker 1: well in his career. It's sixty five at bats, fifteen
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 1: to seven strikeout, walk ratio six home runs is pretty bad.
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 1: Two seventy seven batting average allowed nine to sixty three ops.
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 1: That's not that good. And we're looking I mean, that's bad,
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 1: and we're looking at a hitter friendly park here as well.
• 1:13:42
  Speaker 1: This game is on Amazon Prime, by the way, so
• 1:13:45
  Speaker 1: seven Reno. I don't even think he has an edge
• 1:13:47
  Speaker 1: in the starting pitching either, even though the Yankees back
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 1: end of the rotation, guy Will Warren, is pitching. But
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 1: he was better at home last year, and he's actually
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 1: been good this year so far, nine strikeouts two. I mean,
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 1: he's a guy who I always thought had a little
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 1: bit of potential, Like his strikeout walk numbers are usually
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 1: fairly good. Last year he really was bound on the road.
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 1: But we don't have to worry about that here because
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 1: he's pitching at home where he actually pitches well. But yeah,
• 1:14:15
  Speaker 1: I mean, he's faced only the Giants in Miami so far,
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 1: but we know Miami actually has been hitting well this year,
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 1: so that's not like nothing. His numbers against the A's
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 1: are good. In twenty seven at bats one forty eight
• 1:14:25
  Speaker 1: average allowed four forty three oh ps. Just too many walks,
• 1:14:28
  Speaker 1: which is kind of his problem even though I think
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 1: I just said a lot of times his numbers actually
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 1: look good. I think the walks are actually his problem though,
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 1: so scratch out. I think he doesn't allow that many hits.
• 1:14:39
  Speaker 1: He gets a lot of strikeouts, but his walk number
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 1: is usually the problem nine to four strike out walk
• 1:14:44
  Speaker 1: ratio against the A's. But still, I think you got
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 1: to give the edge to Warren here. This is another
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 1: game where I'd probably lean towards Yankees on the run line. Man,
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 1: I don't think I really want to do it. I
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 1: think you're paying too much of a premium for the
• 1:14:57
  Speaker 1: Yankees usually, and I think you are again in game,
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 1: but I think they're gonna win the game. Again. Yankees
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 1: are at minus two hundred and ninety four percent of
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 1: tickets ninety eight percent of the cash on them, so
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 1: the money somewhat indicating towards the Yankees. I guess, even
• 1:15:11
  Speaker 1: though they're massively public. You might find another way to
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 1: play the game here, even though I think the Yankees
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 1: might wind up covering the run line anyway. But again,
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 1: the worry with that is that you might not get
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 1: the bats in the ninth inning, you know what I mean.
• 1:15:25
  Speaker 1: That's the concern with the run line with the home
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 1: team U seventy three percent of tickets on the over
• 1:15:30
  Speaker 1: sixty seven percent of the cash on the under. I
• 1:15:32
  Speaker 1: don't know why the money's coming in towards the under here.
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 1: I don't really see that, and in fact, several Reno
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 1: has been so bad. This year's numbers are bad enough
• 1:15:40
  Speaker 1: against the Yankees. The A's bullpen is so bad that
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 1: this is a game where I think Yankees over their
• 1:15:45
  Speaker 1: team total does make sense. I think the Yankees should
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 1: score runs in this one, and the total is not
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 1: that high, so you're probably looking at I would guess
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 1: it's probably around five and a half for the Yankees
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 1: team total here. I know only scored five last night,
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 1: but I think they get over their team total in
• 1:16:03
  Speaker 1: this one against that pitching from the A's. So even
• 1:16:06
  Speaker 1: though yes, seven, Reno was good on the road last year,
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 1: so maybe he will bounce back, but I'm not so
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 1: sure it will happen here. And then Detroit at Minnesota
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 1: to finish it off on Fox Sports won the Bailout Special,
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 1: though it's only at seven forty pm. Eastern Divisional matchup here.
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 1: Minnesota's won both games of the series so far. Minnesota
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 1: is not looking for a sweep peer yet because they
• 1:16:33
  Speaker 1: played tomorrow too. But Detroit I think is the better
• 1:16:37
  Speaker 1: team though, And I think Detroit is going to be
• 1:16:39
  Speaker 1: motivated here because they've already lost the first two games
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 1: of the series. They got to turn it around. Man,
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 1: But you might wind up having to pay too much
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 1: of a price with Detroit in this one. Now. I
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 1: think Detroit probably does have the better bullpen. I mean,
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 1: Minnesota's bullpen was bad last year. I think they're bad
• 1:16:55
  Speaker 1: again this year. They're a bottom several bullpen as you
• 1:16:58
  Speaker 1: can see here. This year, Detroit mid middle of the
• 1:17:01
  Speaker 1: pack so far as year with there era is better
• 1:17:04
  Speaker 1: than that, but still their whip indicates they haven't been
• 1:17:07
  Speaker 1: that good. As far as the offense, Detroit's been middle
• 1:17:10
  Speaker 1: of the pack there as well, but still better than Minnesota,
• 1:17:13
  Speaker 1: who's in the bottom third. So I think Detroit is
• 1:17:16
  Speaker 1: the better bullpen and the better offense here. As far
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 1: as what these bullpens did yesterday, Detroit used two relief pitchers.
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 1: That's not bad. Minnesota used four, so I think that's
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 1: also another edge to Detroit. Bullpen rest is on the
• 1:17:32
  Speaker 1: side of Detroit, and I think they have the better
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 1: start or two with from Bervaldez on the mound, who
• 1:17:37
  Speaker 1: is pitching alright for Detroit so far after they picked
• 1:17:40
  Speaker 1: him up. I think over the offseason he's had a
• 1:17:43
  Speaker 1: good start with Detroit here, ten strikeouts, three walks. He's
• 1:17:48
  Speaker 1: kind of picking up where he left off. Man, It's
• 1:17:49
  Speaker 1: just that Valdez is just kind of a head case,
• 1:17:52
  Speaker 1: man Like, when he's pitching well, he's pitching well. When
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 1: he starts doing bad, he kind of goes on tilt.
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 1: So and that could happen at any time. But right
• 1:17:59
  Speaker 1: now he is in good form and he's facing another
• 1:18:02
  Speaker 1: pretty weak offense here. He faced San Diego who's off
• 1:18:05
  Speaker 1: to a really bad offensive start, Saint Louis who just stink.
• 1:18:09
  Speaker 1: But Minnesota is not a much better team at all, man,
• 1:18:12
  Speaker 1: and he's done decent against them in the past for
• 1:18:14
  Speaker 1: the most part of thirty four at bats, sixteen to
• 1:18:16
  Speaker 1: five strikeout walk ratio is fine, two h six batting
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 1: average is low. Minnesota only has five hitters have even
• 1:18:23
  Speaker 1: seen him before, and seven to nineteen ops is a
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 1: little bit high, but that's because there are two of
• 1:18:28
  Speaker 1: them runs in here from Josh Bell and Ryan Jeffers.
• 1:18:32
  Speaker 1: But overall, I'm gonna say I think Valdez should do
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 1: pretty well here. I'm not gonna put too much weight
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 1: into that small sample sized ops there. Bailey Ober pitching
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 1: for the Twins. I mean back, you know, a few
• 1:18:44
  Speaker 1: years ago he showed signs of being a pretty good pitcher.
• 1:18:47
  Speaker 1: That hasn't been the case over the last season plus
• 1:18:50
  Speaker 1: or so. His command numbers are usually good, but this
• 1:18:53
  Speaker 1: year he's not off to a very good start either.
• 1:18:56
  Speaker 1: His strikeout rate is down. He's only got five strikeouts
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 1: in eight innings pitched. He's only lasting four innings in
• 1:19:01
  Speaker 1: each start, three walks all out over that span. Two Yeah,
• 1:19:07
  Speaker 1: things are not going too well for Ober here. And
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 1: of course Detroit's familiar with him because he's in their division. Still,
• 1:19:13
  Speaker 1: they got one hundred and forty eight at bats against.
• 1:19:15
  Speaker 1: He does have a good strike out walk ratio against them, though,
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 1: Like I said, that's one thing that's usually good from
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 1: Ober as his command forty five to six strike out
• 1:19:24
  Speaker 1: walk ratio. But it seems like he just puts way
• 1:19:26
  Speaker 1: too many pitches over the plate. So, I mean, it's
• 1:19:29
  Speaker 1: good you don't walk guys, but if you're too hittable,
• 1:19:32
  Speaker 1: then you're going too far in the other you know,
• 1:19:35
  Speaker 1: in the other direction. You know, uh, two fifty seven
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 1: batting average a lot isn't that bad, but seven to
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 1: seventy nine ohps is pretty bad. So I don't really
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 1: see any advantage from Minnesota here. I'm gonna lead to
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 1: Detroit here. They're actually still a kind of an inexpensive price,
• 1:19:50
  Speaker 1: really if you think about it. At minus one forty
• 1:19:52
  Speaker 1: eight ninety two tickets ninety six percent of the cash
• 1:19:55
  Speaker 1: on Detroit, they're a public side, but I think they're
• 1:19:58
  Speaker 1: probably the right side here. I'm gonna towards Detroit in
• 1:20:01
  Speaker 1: that game, but that one doesn't make my card. And
• 1:20:04
  Speaker 1: I like the way the market is shaping up on
• 1:20:06
  Speaker 1: our three plays here today. Man, So yeah, we got
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 1: those three plays in Major League Baseball. I'm gonna be
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 1: right back, and then we're gonna look at hockey and NBA,
• 1:20:16
  Speaker 1: and there's not a whole lot to look at really,
• 1:20:18
  Speaker 1: So I'll be back in a second. We're gonna have
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 1: one hockey play here. You might be able to figure
• 1:20:24
  Speaker 1: out what it is, but I'll be back in a second.
• 1:21:31
  Speaker 1: All right, we're gonna talk about hockey. Dude. I still
• 1:21:34
  Speaker 1: can't believe Kate Horton man torn ase ucl or whatever.
• 1:21:38
  Speaker 1: Holy crap, uh that was Horton. Here's a snap, I
• 1:21:42
  Speaker 1: guess all right, let's go to hockey here. First game up,
• 1:21:46
  Speaker 1: we have a TNT, True, TV, HBO Max doubleheader Buffalo
• 1:21:49
  Speaker 1: at the Rangers. Here. Rangers, we know they've had a
• 1:21:53
  Speaker 1: really bad season at home. They've kind of started to
• 1:21:56
  Speaker 1: turn around, turn it around a little bit once it
• 1:21:58
  Speaker 1: was too late. Where you know, now they have nothing
• 1:22:01
  Speaker 1: to play for because they're eliminated, but they can play
• 1:22:03
  Speaker 1: loose and they might get up for this game because
• 1:22:07
  Speaker 1: the Rangers like to consider themselves to be the best
• 1:22:09
  Speaker 1: organization in New York, so they might take it a
• 1:22:12
  Speaker 1: little bit more personally. The Buffalo has had the better
• 1:22:14
  Speaker 1: season this year. Buffalo. I'm not gonna say they have
• 1:22:19
  Speaker 1: nothing to play for here, but I don't know that, dude.
• 1:22:21
  Speaker 1: I hate yeah, Firefox like groups these things. Buffalo is
• 1:22:25
  Speaker 1: still trying to get like whole ice throughout it. But
• 1:22:27
  Speaker 1: actually I think Carolina actually might have kind of clinched
• 1:22:29
  Speaker 1: that already for the most part, I don't know, Well,
• 1:22:32
  Speaker 1: Carolina clinched their division I think is what that why is.
• 1:22:35
  Speaker 1: But Buffalo, I mean they're still kind of fighting for
• 1:22:39
  Speaker 1: whole ice and whatever. They're actually tied with Tampa and
• 1:22:41
  Speaker 1: Montreal right now, which is crazy, so they have something
• 1:22:45
  Speaker 1: to play for. But I don't know that it's enough, man.
• 1:22:46
  Speaker 1: I think the Rangers will get up for this, and
• 1:22:49
  Speaker 1: Buffalo is coming off beating Tampa Bay, which was a
• 1:22:51
  Speaker 1: big win. They got Columbus on deck. Who's in kind
• 1:22:55
  Speaker 1: of the tournament mix or tournament playoff mix right now.
• 1:22:58
  Speaker 1: I'm still in college of basketball mode. Man. You know,
• 1:23:02
  Speaker 1: it might not be the greatest spot here, but the
• 1:23:04
  Speaker 1: Rangers are also coming off of a very satisfying win
• 1:23:06
  Speaker 1: where they had a home win and they blew out
• 1:23:10
  Speaker 1: Washington and probably their best performance of the year eight
• 1:23:13
  Speaker 1: to one. So I don't really like jumping on teams
• 1:23:15
  Speaker 1: when they when they're coming off an eight to one win,
• 1:23:18
  Speaker 1: they've had a couple of days off, but sometimes you
• 1:23:20
  Speaker 1: kind of bask in that win. But I think they
• 1:23:23
  Speaker 1: will actually still get up for this because this is
• 1:23:25
  Speaker 1: their final home game again. They might take this a
• 1:23:27
  Speaker 1: little bit personally against Buffalo. The Buffalo's going to the
• 1:23:31
  Speaker 1: playoffs and they're not. Buffalo is maybe overpriced a little
• 1:23:35
  Speaker 1: bit down for minus one forty five to minus one
• 1:23:37
  Speaker 1: forty two. The money's indicating on Buffalo, but I don't
• 1:23:40
  Speaker 1: really agree with it. Seventy six percent of tickets, ninety
• 1:23:43
  Speaker 1: eight percent of the cash on them. I'm gonna lean
• 1:23:45
  Speaker 1: towards the Rangers on the money line here, you know,
• 1:23:48
  Speaker 1: get a chance to play not really spoiler, but you know,
• 1:23:52
  Speaker 1: spoil Buffalo's chances at getting home ice in the first
• 1:23:55
  Speaker 1: round and whatever. So well, they'll still have home ice
• 1:23:59
  Speaker 1: in the first round. But I mean o mice against
• 1:24:01
  Speaker 1: the other well, actually it's possible they fall out of
• 1:24:03
  Speaker 1: that actually, so yeah, that that could actually happen. So yeah, yeah,
• 1:24:08
  Speaker 1: I just don't think like seating is not enough of
• 1:24:10
  Speaker 1: a motivator really, you know what I mean. Next game
• 1:24:14
  Speaker 1: up will be my play. Let's go here, man, We're
• 1:24:22
  Speaker 1: gonna go well with Washington on the money line here.
• 1:24:25
  Speaker 1: I know it's a little bit pricey as a road
• 1:24:28
  Speaker 1: favorite here that the public is probably also gonna be
• 1:24:30
  Speaker 1: on my minus one forty five, but I think it's
• 1:24:33
  Speaker 1: the right move. The money looks like it's agreeing with me.
• 1:24:36
  Speaker 1: Sixty two percent of tickets, ninety percent of the cash
• 1:24:38
  Speaker 1: on them. If the number gets a little bit higher
• 1:24:40
  Speaker 1: and it's too pricey again, you could do the split
• 1:24:42
  Speaker 1: bet partially puck line, partially money line, you know what
• 1:24:46
  Speaker 1: I mean, just to pay a little bit less. But
• 1:24:48
  Speaker 1: then if they win by one, you'll push your bet.
• 1:24:51
  Speaker 1: But Washington, first of all, they're gonna be motivated, like
• 1:24:55
  Speaker 1: they need to win, and I know that must win
• 1:24:58
  Speaker 1: does put pressure on you whatever, but they're only well,
• 1:25:03
  Speaker 1: they might be a little bit loose to man, because
• 1:25:06
  Speaker 1: they're the last team that's not eliminated, that's still sitting there,
• 1:25:10
  Speaker 1: so they don't really have realistic expectations that say they're
• 1:25:15
  Speaker 1: five points back of Autowa here for the last spot,
• 1:25:19
  Speaker 1: but they're not mathematically eliminated. But I think it's a
• 1:25:21
  Speaker 1: team like that you can play looser because they don't
• 1:25:24
  Speaker 1: control their own destiny, you know what I mean, Like, yeah,
• 1:25:27
  Speaker 1: they need to win, but these other teams ahead of
• 1:25:29
  Speaker 1: them also need to lose. So I think that's kind
• 1:25:32
  Speaker 1: of the sweet spot, like I said, like I talked
• 1:25:34
  Speaker 1: about that in football, when it comes down to the
• 1:25:36
  Speaker 1: end of the season, teams that need help, like they
• 1:25:38
  Speaker 1: got to win, but they also need help. They can
• 1:25:41
  Speaker 1: only focus on what they could do, so that actually
• 1:25:43
  Speaker 1: looses them up a little bit and it's like, let's
• 1:25:46
  Speaker 1: win and then like let the other cards fall where
• 1:25:48
  Speaker 1: they may, So I think that might get Washing up
• 1:25:50
  Speaker 1: a little bit more for this or have them playing
• 1:25:53
  Speaker 1: with less pressure on them. Toronto, I think Toronto's in
• 1:25:59
  Speaker 1: a bad spot, dude. They're returning home from a road trip.
• 1:26:01
  Speaker 1: Of course they are. Of course, that's why I'm doing this.
• 1:26:04
  Speaker 1: Toronto has been on the road since Saturday, March twenty eighth,
• 1:26:07
  Speaker 1: so they've been on the road for a long time.
• 1:26:09
  Speaker 1: They went to the Pacific Coast. Wasn't a great road trip.
• 1:26:12
  Speaker 1: But you know, they're an eliminated team. They have more
• 1:26:14
  Speaker 1: home games left. They might pay more attention to really
• 1:26:18
  Speaker 1: the remainder of their games. They're playing the Islanders in
• 1:26:21
  Speaker 1: a Hulu game coming up next in Disney. Plus they're
• 1:26:23
  Speaker 1: playing Florida, they're returning champs, they're playing Dallas. Both those
• 1:26:28
  Speaker 1: games at home, so this game they might overlook a
• 1:26:30
  Speaker 1: little bit on the return home spot. They just had
• 1:26:33
  Speaker 1: an overtime game. But yes, they've had three days off.
• 1:26:36
  Speaker 1: I understand that that means they're rested a bit, although
• 1:26:39
  Speaker 1: Washington themselves have had two days off. By the way,
• 1:26:41
  Speaker 1: I forgot to mention Washington. I forgot to even talk
• 1:26:44
  Speaker 1: about them. They're the team that I mentioned. They just
• 1:26:46
  Speaker 1: lost eight to one of the Rangers, so I think,
• 1:26:49
  Speaker 1: and remember I liked the Rangers in that game if
• 1:26:52
  Speaker 1: you remember correctly. It wasn't a play, but Washington was
• 1:26:55
  Speaker 1: coming up beating Buffalo the game before that, so they
• 1:26:58
  Speaker 1: were on a back to back, went off a monster
• 1:27:01
  Speaker 1: win over Buffalo, so you know, they got caught in
• 1:27:03
  Speaker 1: a bad spot and now they're coming off such an
• 1:27:05
  Speaker 1: egregious loss eight to one. I think, you know, Washington's
• 1:27:08
  Speaker 1: gonna be motivated after a performance like that, going on
• 1:27:12
  Speaker 1: the road with two days off, so they have almost
• 1:27:14
  Speaker 1: as much rest as Toronto. But Washington's travel spot is
• 1:27:18
  Speaker 1: way better because they're staying in the Eastern time zone here,
• 1:27:22
  Speaker 1: whereas Toronto is having to come back from the Pacific coast.
• 1:27:25
  Speaker 1: And even though they've had three days off, I think
• 1:27:27
  Speaker 1: that can actually hurt you a little bit more. That
• 1:27:29
  Speaker 1: can actually settle you in at home a little bit more.
• 1:27:32
  Speaker 1: So it can make the home return spot worse. So
• 1:27:35
  Speaker 1: of course I don't like that. So yeah, it's shaping
• 1:27:38
  Speaker 1: up for a nice play on Washington here. Man, that's
• 1:27:41
  Speaker 1: what we're doing again. I think the Islanders could be
• 1:27:43
  Speaker 1: a little bit of a look at for Toronto there,
• 1:27:44
  Speaker 1: because again if you look at the standings, which I
• 1:27:47
  Speaker 1: think I just killed, but hang on, let me say,
• 1:27:52
  Speaker 1: let me get back to the standings here. Yeah, the
• 1:27:57
  Speaker 1: Islanders are like in the playoffs right now on the
• 1:27:59
  Speaker 1: stand right Oh no, they're no, what am I talking about?
• 1:28:01
  Speaker 1: They're a wild card. They're in the wildcard fight right now. Wow,
• 1:28:05
  Speaker 1: the Islanders have really fallen down because they were in
• 1:28:07
  Speaker 1: this third spot in the Metro and they've fallen way off.
• 1:28:11
  Speaker 1: That's crazy. So yeah, I don't know if it's gonna
• 1:28:14
  Speaker 1: be that much of a look ahead, but it's still
• 1:28:15
  Speaker 1: a return home spot at the very least, Washington in
• 1:28:18
  Speaker 1: a bounce back spot in a big way. We're going
• 1:28:21
  Speaker 1: with Washington there. Let's get it done, man. And then
• 1:28:24
  Speaker 1: now we have Edmonton San Jose in the second game
• 1:28:27
  Speaker 1: on that TNT HBO Max True TV doubleheader. Edmonton. This
• 1:28:32
  Speaker 1: is a very interesting scenario. If you look at the standings,
• 1:28:34
  Speaker 1: Edmonton's leading their division, the Pacific, but they're tied with Vegas.
• 1:28:39
  Speaker 1: They're one point ahead of Anaheim. They're tied with Utah,
• 1:28:43
  Speaker 1: who has the first wildcard spot right now. So if
• 1:28:45
  Speaker 1: Edmonton loses like one game, they could fall into the
• 1:28:49
  Speaker 1: second wildcard spot. It's just this is insane the way
• 1:28:54
  Speaker 1: these standings are. How lopside of the Western conferences. Between
• 1:28:58
  Speaker 1: this division, we're all three of Colorado, Dallas, and Minnesota
• 1:29:02
  Speaker 1: have already clinched playoff spots, and none of the teams
• 1:29:05
  Speaker 1: of the Pacific Division of clinch playoff spots. It's getting ridiculous, man,
• 1:29:09
  Speaker 1: But I think that means Edmonton's got to show up here.
• 1:29:12
  Speaker 1: San Jose is trying to get a wildcard spot and
• 1:29:14
  Speaker 1: they're three points out behind Nashville right now. Nashville did
• 1:29:18
  Speaker 1: win against the Kings last night, so you know, Nashville
• 1:29:22
  Speaker 1: took over the last wildcard spot again from the Kings.
• 1:29:26
  Speaker 1: Kings was still in the mix to Winnipeg is still
• 1:29:29
  Speaker 1: in the mix too. I'm gonna say Saint Louis and
• 1:29:31
  Speaker 1: Seattle are probably gonna be done at this point. But
• 1:29:34
  Speaker 1: this is a crazy cluster, dude, where Edmonton they can't
• 1:29:38
  Speaker 1: overlook anybody, but maybe Edmonton kind of feels like they're
• 1:29:43
  Speaker 1: in an alright position here. Now. Edmonton lost last night
• 1:29:46
  Speaker 1: at Utah. I thought they might bounce back from that
• 1:29:48
  Speaker 1: loss against Vegas, but instead they had kind of a
• 1:29:51
  Speaker 1: hangover it looks like. And now Edmonton's on a back
• 1:29:54
  Speaker 1: to back off an overtime game against Utah, who is
• 1:29:57
  Speaker 1: fighting to make the playoffs. Two go maam. By the way,
• 1:30:00
  Speaker 1: I got my mammoth jersey. I'd love to see the
• 1:30:02
  Speaker 1: maymmoth in the playoffs, man, the first year they changed
• 1:30:05
  Speaker 1: their name. Let's go bab with the maam bony. Have
• 1:30:09
  Speaker 1: you seen that thing? I think it's actually real. I
• 1:30:11
  Speaker 1: think the Utah Zamboni has like maymmoth toss on and
• 1:30:16
  Speaker 1: it looks like a mammoth. I'm pretty sure it's real.
• 1:30:18
  Speaker 1: Maybe I'm wrong, maybe I've been deceived by AI, but
• 1:30:22
  Speaker 1: you can go look that up. Man. Anyway, I don't
• 1:30:25
  Speaker 1: think it's the greatest spot for Edmonton. Man. You might
• 1:30:27
  Speaker 1: get a bit of a looser San Jose team here
• 1:30:29
  Speaker 1: because they're fighting to make the playoffs, but they need help.
• 1:30:32
  Speaker 1: They need other teams to lose, and it would be
• 1:30:35
  Speaker 1: a big game for them hosting Edmonton. Man. San Jose
• 1:30:38
  Speaker 1: is rested. They didn't play yesterday. They're playing well right now,
• 1:30:41
  Speaker 1: winning five of their last six. Granted, they mostly beat
• 1:30:46
  Speaker 1: teams that aren't that good, and pretty much all those
• 1:30:48
  Speaker 1: teams are not as good as Edmonton. But San Jose's
• 1:30:50
  Speaker 1: coming up barely getting by Chicago in their last game.
• 1:30:53
  Speaker 1: This is gonna be a huge game TV game at home.
• 1:30:57
  Speaker 1: San Jose, you know, probably could play a little bit
• 1:30:59
  Speaker 1: loose here because I think Edmonton the pressure is on
• 1:31:02
  Speaker 1: them because they're expected to be in the playoffs every
• 1:31:05
  Speaker 1: year pretty much. They're stacked with talent, you know what
• 1:31:07
  Speaker 1: I mean, san Jose, nothing was really expected, So I
• 1:31:12
  Speaker 1: like it. Man, I like san Jose in this one.
• 1:31:13
  Speaker 1: It's not a play for me because Edmonton does still
• 1:31:16
  Speaker 1: kind of need to show up as well. But the
• 1:31:18
  Speaker 1: money seems to be agreeing with me, and Edmonton down
• 1:31:20
  Speaker 1: for minus one twenty five to minus one nineteen, it
• 1:31:23
  Speaker 1: looks really kind of easy to play Edmonton. Oh, the
• 1:31:26
  Speaker 1: better team at this cheap price here, sixty three percent
• 1:31:29
  Speaker 1: of tickets, fifty four percent of the cash on them,
• 1:31:31
  Speaker 1: But I don't love the spot for them. Yeah, the
• 1:31:34
  Speaker 1: money looks like it's indicating on San Jose with less
• 1:31:36
  Speaker 1: of the public on Edmonton, or excuse you, with more
• 1:31:39
  Speaker 1: of the public on Edmonton and less of the money
• 1:31:41
  Speaker 1: on Edmonton. My mistake. But yes, I lean San Jose
• 1:31:45
  Speaker 1: in that game. But my play in hockey is Washington,
• 1:31:48
  Speaker 1: and I'm skipping the NBA again. I know we did
• 1:31:51
  Speaker 1: have an NBA play the other night and it was
• 1:31:53
  Speaker 1: a loser. End of season NBA is getting almost impossible
• 1:31:57
  Speaker 1: to handicap. Dude, it's so bad. Playoffs. We're gonna we're
• 1:32:01
  Speaker 1: gonna crush the playoffs. Though, like I always do the playoffs,
• 1:32:05
  Speaker 1: you get great situations in the playoffs. End of season
• 1:32:08
  Speaker 1: NBA is just so bad where you have teams where
• 1:32:11
  Speaker 1: it's like impossible to gauge with their motivation is gonna
• 1:32:14
  Speaker 1: be But let's look at this board here, we've got
• 1:32:17
  Speaker 1: seven games. I think ESPN Doubleheader starts with Atlanta at Cleveland. Now,
• 1:32:23
  Speaker 1: this is a game where I think both teams are
• 1:32:25
  Speaker 1: gonna have motivation. Atlanta, I mean they're pretty much locked
• 1:32:30
  Speaker 1: into either the five or the six. Though well, actually no,
• 1:32:33
  Speaker 1: that's not the case. Actually my mistake. They're gonna have
• 1:32:35
  Speaker 1: motivation because they could actually fall out of the top six,
• 1:32:38
  Speaker 1: and that's not what you want. You want to make
• 1:32:40
  Speaker 1: sure you avoid the play ins. So Atlanta does have
• 1:32:43
  Speaker 1: that to play for him. Plus they're playing against Cleveland,
• 1:32:46
  Speaker 1: so I think they will be motivated for that reason.
• 1:32:48
  Speaker 1: Cleveland at worst is gonna be the four seed. They've
• 1:32:51
  Speaker 1: already clinched I think pretty much at least that, so
• 1:32:54
  Speaker 1: Cleveland might have less to play for here, man, So
• 1:32:56
  Speaker 1: that's somebody keep in mind. So I think motivation. I
• 1:32:59
  Speaker 1: think Atlanta actually has more to play for to avoid
• 1:33:02
  Speaker 1: the playings, whereas Cleveland, it's almost like they are intentionally
• 1:33:05
  Speaker 1: trying to get the four seed so they get to
• 1:33:08
  Speaker 1: play a weakened and inexperienced Detroit team and a potential
• 1:33:11
  Speaker 1: second round matchup, although I don't know for sure, but
• 1:33:15
  Speaker 1: it would allow them to avoid the Celtics for longer
• 1:33:18
  Speaker 1: and the Knicks. Atlanta just lost against the Knicks though,
• 1:33:24
  Speaker 1: so that's kind of the issue I have, where Atlanta
• 1:33:27
  Speaker 1: just had a big game against the Knicks and ended
• 1:33:29
  Speaker 1: a four game win streak for them. I thought Atlanta
• 1:33:31
  Speaker 1: would be able to win that game. They didn't, and
• 1:33:34
  Speaker 1: now they're coming off of that game. That's my one
• 1:33:35
  Speaker 1: concern with Atlanta is that they're gonna have to play
• 1:33:38
  Speaker 1: another big game, second game in a row. That worries
• 1:33:41
  Speaker 1: meet slightly here. But I still don't see that much
• 1:33:45
  Speaker 1: motivation coming from Cleveland here. Cleveland just meet Memphis on
• 1:33:50
  Speaker 1: the road, though, So I mean but that might have
• 1:33:51
  Speaker 1: been more than just Memphis didn't show up in that game.
• 1:33:54
  Speaker 1: It's really hard to tell, like was Cleveland actually that
• 1:33:56
  Speaker 1: motivated in that game or was Memphis completely unmotivated? Who knows.
• 1:34:02
  Speaker 1: It looks like Cleveland might have rested some guys in
• 1:34:04
  Speaker 1: that game too. I don't even know. Man. Now Cleveland
• 1:34:07
  Speaker 1: back at home here, but again, I think Cleveland doesn't
• 1:34:09
  Speaker 1: have that much motivation. Like I said, they're at the
• 1:34:12
  Speaker 1: very least, they're gonna have a home series in the
• 1:34:15
  Speaker 1: first round, and if they wind up with a four seed,
• 1:34:18
  Speaker 1: like I said, you know they're gonna avoid some of
• 1:34:21
  Speaker 1: the better teams in the division in the conference. I
• 1:34:25
  Speaker 1: mean Donovan Mitchell. I think he missed last game. He's
• 1:34:28
  Speaker 1: questionable for this game. I don't know if he's gonna
• 1:34:31
  Speaker 1: play or not. Man, So that's another thing to consider,
• 1:34:33
  Speaker 1: as he is still Cleveland's best player. I know they
• 1:34:35
  Speaker 1: have James Harden and whatever, but that's something to keep
• 1:34:38
  Speaker 1: an eye on there. But I'm gonna lean slightly to
• 1:34:40
  Speaker 1: the Hawks in this game. The money seems like it's
• 1:34:42
  Speaker 1: agreeing with me. Cleveland is down for two and a
• 1:34:44
  Speaker 1: half to one and a half. I don't know if
• 1:34:47
  Speaker 1: that number seems to be indicating that Mitchell is not
• 1:34:50
  Speaker 1: gonna play in this game. But I kind of like
• 1:34:52
  Speaker 1: the Hawks as probably the more motivated team as the
• 1:34:56
  Speaker 1: underdog here, although it's a very small underdog, Like you're
• 1:35:00
  Speaker 1: basically saying they're gonna win the game if you play them.
• 1:35:02
  Speaker 1: Fifty six percent of tickets, eighty two percent of the
• 1:35:05
  Speaker 1: cash on the Hawks. The money's agreeing with it. I
• 1:35:07
  Speaker 1: agree with it, but it's not strong enough for me.
• 1:35:11
  Speaker 1: Minnesota at Orlando, Orlando, they have something to play for
• 1:35:15
  Speaker 1: because again they're in this cluster in the East where Atlanta, Toronto, Philadelphia, Orlando,
• 1:35:21
  Speaker 1: and Charlotte are all separated by two and a half games,
• 1:35:24
  Speaker 1: and Miami is now locked into a playing spot. But
• 1:35:28
  Speaker 1: even Miami, I they could advance out of the lower
• 1:35:31
  Speaker 1: playing game, which does matter because then you have to
• 1:35:34
  Speaker 1: only win once instead of twice. Although I'm not I'm
• 1:35:37
  Speaker 1: not a Miami fan. I mean, I mean I have
• 1:35:41
  Speaker 1: never been, because I'm a Boston fan. But you know, like,
• 1:35:43
  Speaker 1: I just don't think Miami's that good this year. Minnesota
• 1:35:46
  Speaker 1: just beat Indiana in their last game, but that was
• 1:35:49
  Speaker 1: last night, so they're on a back to back. They're
• 1:35:51
  Speaker 1: going to Orlando here, and if you look at the standings,
• 1:35:54
  Speaker 1: where's Minnesota's motivation really gonna come from. Man, they're three
• 1:35:58
  Speaker 1: games behind the Lakers in Houston, and they're four ahead
• 1:36:01
  Speaker 1: of Phoenix. So Minnesota has already clinched a playoff spot.
• 1:36:05
  Speaker 1: They're in the top six, but they're all it's almost
• 1:36:09
  Speaker 1: impossible for them to advance above the six seeds. So
• 1:36:12
  Speaker 1: I don't think Minnesota has that much to play for here,
• 1:36:15
  Speaker 1: and Orlando has more to play for because they're trying
• 1:36:17
  Speaker 1: to avoid the play ins. Like I said, so I
• 1:36:20
  Speaker 1: think Orlando's gonna show up with more motivation here Minnesota.
• 1:36:25
  Speaker 1: I mean that game against Houston could be big in
• 1:36:27
  Speaker 1: the next game if they think they have any shot
• 1:36:29
  Speaker 1: at all of leap frogging Houston, which I'm not sure
• 1:36:31
  Speaker 1: if they do. They did just beat Houston in an
• 1:36:34
  Speaker 1: overtime last time they played them, but I don't know
• 1:36:36
  Speaker 1: who has a tiebreaker. But it's still really unlikely for Minnesota.
• 1:36:40
  Speaker 1: I don't know that they're really gonna pay attention in
• 1:36:42
  Speaker 1: this game to Orlando. I think Orlando's gonna show op
• 1:36:46
  Speaker 1: and uh for Orlando, Minnesota's on a back to back,
• 1:36:50
  Speaker 1: Like I said, so Minnesota's an arrest disadvantage. Orlando is
• 1:36:53
  Speaker 1: staying at home and they haven't played since Monday, although
• 1:36:56
  Speaker 1: they are playing a fourth game in six days, which
• 1:36:59
  Speaker 1: isn't that great, and they're i'm have a huge win
• 1:37:01
  Speaker 1: over Detroit, so that's a little bit of an issue.
• 1:37:04
  Speaker 1: Maybe that they're coming out a huge win, so you
• 1:37:06
  Speaker 1: could worry a little bit about the letdown, maybe for Orlando,
• 1:37:09
  Speaker 1: but when you're fighting to try to avoid the play
• 1:37:11
  Speaker 1: and I just don't think you can afford a let down.
• 1:37:14
  Speaker 1: I believe Orlando's healthy, other than the fact that I
• 1:37:17
  Speaker 1: think Wagner might have not played in that game, but
• 1:37:20
  Speaker 1: I think he is going to play in this game tonight.
• 1:37:21
  Speaker 1: I think he missed the Detroit game and they still won,
• 1:37:25
  Speaker 1: but I think he is going to play in this game.
• 1:37:27
  Speaker 1: And it is Orlando's final home game, so sometimes that
• 1:37:30
  Speaker 1: is an extra motivator. You want to give the fans something,
• 1:37:32
  Speaker 1: so I will lean to Orlando in this game. It
• 1:37:35
  Speaker 1: looks like the money is agreed, but they're up to
• 1:37:37
  Speaker 1: a seven and a half point favorite. Man. That's the
• 1:37:39
  Speaker 1: other thing that must mean. Anthony Edwards is not playing
• 1:37:42
  Speaker 1: in this game for the t Wolves. Like the magic
• 1:37:44
  Speaker 1: being seven and a half is just insane. Seventy percent
• 1:37:48
  Speaker 1: of tickets, ninety three percent of the cash on Orlando. Again,
• 1:37:51
  Speaker 1: I agree with Orlando, but there's no way that I
• 1:37:53
  Speaker 1: would lay seven and a half. Five and a half
• 1:37:56
  Speaker 1: more tempting, for sure. I mean seven kind of a
• 1:37:58
  Speaker 1: key number because when TA stop intentially fouling. But I
• 1:38:02
  Speaker 1: can't lay seven and a half to But it does
• 1:38:04
  Speaker 1: look like the t Wolves might have multiple guys not
• 1:38:06
  Speaker 1: playing in this game, because there's no way Orlando would
• 1:38:09
  Speaker 1: be favored like that. Otherwise, even with Anthony Edwards ot
• 1:38:13
  Speaker 1: I would think even that wouldn't be enough to shift
• 1:38:15
  Speaker 1: the line to that degree. It looks like McDaniels is
• 1:38:18
  Speaker 1: probably out as well, But I don't know what's going on. Man.
• 1:38:21
  Speaker 1: The line looks a little bit too crazy to me.
• 1:38:23
  Speaker 1: I think some of it is probably the fact that
• 1:38:25
  Speaker 1: the t Wolves are on a back to back too.
• 1:38:27
  Speaker 1: But yeah, I like the magic. I think they're gonna
• 1:38:29
  Speaker 1: win this game, but seven and a half is just ridiculous.
• 1:38:32
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't lay it. I just couldn't do it. Mantle,
• 1:38:35
  Speaker 1: I'm not gonna take the points with the Tea Wolves,
• 1:38:36
  Speaker 1: certainly not. I mean, I hate parlays. I don't do it.
• 1:38:41
  Speaker 1: I don't even recommend parlays. But if you wanted to
• 1:38:44
  Speaker 1: go with Orlando and like a money line parlay just
• 1:38:47
  Speaker 1: to get them to win the game, you could do
• 1:38:49
  Speaker 1: that that. It might be a situation where it does
• 1:38:51
  Speaker 1: make sense to do that. All right, Bucks and Pistons,
• 1:38:55
  Speaker 1: I think is the next game. Speaking of the Bucks,
• 1:38:57
  Speaker 1: I just saw them talking about them over on ESPN
• 1:38:59
  Speaker 1: over here. Apparently Doc Rivers had a team meeting and
• 1:39:05
  Speaker 1: rubbed the players the wrong way. Where Doc Rivers, I
• 1:39:08
  Speaker 1: don't know, made some weird comment where he told his
• 1:39:11
  Speaker 1: players to look at his resume, like basically like, look
• 1:39:16
  Speaker 1: at me, man Like I won a championship when I
• 1:39:18
  Speaker 1: was coaching the Celtics, man Like, stop you know, disrespecting
• 1:39:22
  Speaker 1: me or whatever. Things are falling apart in Milwaukee. Man,
• 1:39:25
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I'm not sure that Doc Rivers is
• 1:39:27
  Speaker 1: even that good of a coach. Man. I know he
• 1:39:29
  Speaker 1: got my Celtics a win there back in two thousand
• 1:39:33
  Speaker 1: and eight. That was a fun playoff run to watch.
• 1:39:36
  Speaker 1: I very much enjoyed it. It was the first Celtic
• 1:39:41
  Speaker 1: championship that I can remember, because I think they did
• 1:39:43
  Speaker 1: win at one or two when I was a baby,
• 1:39:45
  Speaker 1: but obviously I don't remember that in the Bird era,
• 1:39:49
  Speaker 1: so but yes, so those are ones I didn't remember.
• 1:39:54
  Speaker 1: But the first one in my lifetime that I actually remember,
• 1:39:56
  Speaker 1: because dude, I just as a kid, it was just
• 1:39:59
  Speaker 1: the Celtics always stunk because they had you know, the
• 1:40:01
  Speaker 1: Lynn Byas thing where he they draft him and he dies,
• 1:40:04
  Speaker 1: and then you got Reggie Lewis. Looks like he's gonna
• 1:40:08
  Speaker 1: be the next thing. I got his autograph by the
• 1:40:10
  Speaker 1: way as well, and then he dies, and it was
• 1:40:12
  Speaker 1: just this thing like the Celtics are just fucked, like permanently.
• 1:40:17
  Speaker 1: They had Paul Pierce, Santoine Walker and like nobody else.
• 1:40:19
  Speaker 1: You know. Now I'm going on a tangent here, but
• 1:40:21
  Speaker 1: you know, uh so just for my entire like upbringing,
• 1:40:24
  Speaker 1: the Celtics were like a bad team, you know what
• 1:40:28
  Speaker 1: I mean. And then they finally win a championship. It
• 1:40:30
  Speaker 1: felt like really really good. You know, it felt like
• 1:40:33
  Speaker 1: you were the underdog and you finally win one, and
• 1:40:35
  Speaker 1: doing it against the Lakers was extra satisfying. So and
• 1:40:39
  Speaker 1: you know, beating Detroit along the way too, which you know,
• 1:40:42
  Speaker 1: Detroit had the Wallaces and whatever, I'm not really a
• 1:40:45
  Speaker 1: fan of Rashid Wallace and whatever. You know, some of
• 1:40:49
  Speaker 1: those guys kind of ask clowns. I think. By the way,
• 1:40:51
  Speaker 1: speaking of Rashid Wallace, the Jail Blazers documentaries coming out
• 1:40:56
  Speaker 1: on Netflix soon, which has to do with all the
• 1:40:59
  Speaker 1: criminal on the Portland Trailblazers team that included Rashid Wallace
• 1:41:04
  Speaker 1: back then. So I am going to watch that one.
• 1:41:05
  Speaker 1: I think it would be fun to watch that one.
• 1:41:08
  Speaker 1: But anyway, Milwaukee they're having issues. Man. It seems like
• 1:41:12
  Speaker 1: they're not listening to Doc Rivers. Obviously, we know they
• 1:41:15
  Speaker 1: pretty much packed it in, but are they gonna get
• 1:41:17
  Speaker 1: up for a game here or it gets Detroit against
• 1:41:20
  Speaker 1: the number one seed in the conference. I don't know. Man,
• 1:41:23
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee is on a back to back. They played last night,
• 1:41:26
  Speaker 1: but they lost to Brooklyn. I mean, that is as
• 1:41:29
  Speaker 1: ugly as it gets. Losing to Brooklyn as ugly as
• 1:41:32
  Speaker 1: it nets. And they have to play Brooklyn again in
• 1:41:35
  Speaker 1: their final home game tomorrow. I mean, I think if
• 1:41:38
  Speaker 1: the Bucks are gonna show anything, it is going to
• 1:41:40
  Speaker 1: be in a game like this where they're gonna potentially
• 1:41:43
  Speaker 1: get up for a game against Detroit. Detroit has nothing
• 1:41:45
  Speaker 1: to play for, so there's no way I'm going to
• 1:41:47
  Speaker 1: be laying the points with Detroit. They've locked themselves into
• 1:41:50
  Speaker 1: the one seed already. I think they won the season
• 1:41:54
  Speaker 1: series against the Celtics, so I think they already have
• 1:41:56
  Speaker 1: the tiebreaker here. Detroit didn't play yesterday, the returning on
• 1:42:00
  Speaker 1: from a road trip, but there was only a two
• 1:42:02
  Speaker 1: game road trip to Philly and Orlando. They lost that
• 1:42:05
  Speaker 1: game to Orlando. Like I said, this is their final
• 1:42:07
  Speaker 1: home game, so maybe Detroit will get up a little
• 1:42:10
  Speaker 1: bit and show the fans something. They've had a bunch
• 1:42:13
  Speaker 1: of guys in and out of the lineup too, trying
• 1:42:15
  Speaker 1: to get healthy for the playoffs. We know Caid Cunningham
• 1:42:18
  Speaker 1: is still out. Milwaukee's got a lot of guys on
• 1:42:21
  Speaker 1: the injury report too. Of course, Giannis isn't coming back.
• 1:42:24
  Speaker 1: We know all this stuff. They have a bunch of
• 1:42:26
  Speaker 1: guys listed on the injury report. Detroit looks a bit
• 1:42:29
  Speaker 1: more healthy other than the fact that Cunningham is not playing.
• 1:42:33
  Speaker 1: Of course, he won't play again until the playoffs. Would
• 1:42:35
  Speaker 1: be my guess playoffs, which you know, if they play
• 1:42:40
  Speaker 1: him in their first game of the playoffs, that might
• 1:42:42
  Speaker 1: be bad. A reverse injured player spot. Maybe maybe fading
• 1:42:46
  Speaker 1: Detroit in their first playoff game might make sense, man,
• 1:42:48
  Speaker 1: I don't know, against the Charlotte Hornets. Perhaps anyway. Yeah,
• 1:42:55
  Speaker 1: I mean I'm gonna lead to Milwaukee in this game slightly.
• 1:42:57
  Speaker 1: I mean Detroit just literally has nothing to play like.
• 1:43:01
  Speaker 1: They're a nineteen to twenty point favorite here. You can't
• 1:43:04
  Speaker 1: do that. Seventy five percent of ticket, seventy two percent
• 1:43:07
  Speaker 1: of the cash on them, so less of the money
• 1:43:09
  Speaker 1: on the piss. It looks like the market indicators are
• 1:43:12
  Speaker 1: on the Bucks. I agree with it, but there's no
• 1:43:14
  Speaker 1: way I would actually want my money on that. I mean,
• 1:43:17
  Speaker 1: the Bucks to look like they're kind of in turmoil there.
• 1:43:20
  Speaker 1: But again, laying twenty points with a team that has
• 1:43:22
  Speaker 1: no motivation is just stupid. So yeah, I mean, this
• 1:43:26
  Speaker 1: is the state of the NBA now. Memory have multiple
• 1:43:29
  Speaker 1: teams favored by twenty points. The Thunder or twenty four
• 1:43:32
  Speaker 1: and a half point favorites the other night and covered
• 1:43:35
  Speaker 1: and that was I think the largest spread in NBA history.
• 1:43:39
  Speaker 1: It's ridiculous, dude, It's getting ridiculous. The NBA needs to
• 1:43:42
  Speaker 1: make changes. This is just insane. All the teams that
• 1:43:46
  Speaker 1: are out of the playoffs have been eliminated mathematically for
• 1:43:50
  Speaker 1: like a month. At this point, it's just so insane.
• 1:43:53
  Speaker 1: Memphis at Denver is the next game here. Memphis, of
• 1:43:56
  Speaker 1: course is eliminated. But is this a game they might
• 1:43:59
  Speaker 1: get up for. Maybe they're starting a road trip here,
• 1:44:03
  Speaker 1: Maybe they want to try to do something and play
• 1:44:05
  Speaker 1: well against a team they know is gonna be in
• 1:44:07
  Speaker 1: the playoffs, like Denver. Denver is still I think fighting
• 1:44:11
  Speaker 1: for seeding, but I don't know how much that really
• 1:44:13
  Speaker 1: means they do. There's a chance that they don't get
• 1:44:17
  Speaker 1: a home series in the first round. It's likely they will,
• 1:44:20
  Speaker 1: but they're only one game ahead of the Rockets, so
• 1:44:23
  Speaker 1: there is a concern there. They need to stay ahead
• 1:44:26
  Speaker 1: of the Rockets, so there is that, But they can
• 1:44:28
  Speaker 1: also win and not cover here as well. They're coming
• 1:44:31
  Speaker 1: off two overtime games. They beat San Antonio in overtime,
• 1:44:34
  Speaker 1: which was a huge win. Denver's on a massive win
• 1:44:37
  Speaker 1: streak too, they won nine games in a row, but
• 1:44:39
  Speaker 1: they had a bad outing last time out against a
• 1:44:42
  Speaker 1: Portland team that is playing some decent basketball. Denver. It
• 1:44:46
  Speaker 1: was a letdown spot to quite clearly, I leaned to
• 1:44:49
  Speaker 1: Portland in that game. And I picked the wrong one. Dude.
• 1:44:52
  Speaker 1: Portland I think was my second strongest lean that night,
• 1:44:54
  Speaker 1: and I picked Philadelphia instead of Portland that night. Not
• 1:44:59
  Speaker 1: happy a because Denver, of course, was in that letdown spot.
• 1:45:03
  Speaker 1: I just didn't think, you know, because it wasn't a
• 1:45:04
  Speaker 1: look ahead to Memphis or anything. I didn't love it
• 1:45:08
  Speaker 1: as much, even though I liked Portland. But yes, Portland covered.
• 1:45:11
  Speaker 1: Denver barely got the win, but not because Denver barely
• 1:45:14
  Speaker 1: got the win and they do have something to play
• 1:45:15
  Speaker 1: for here. Barely getting the win is a big favorite
• 1:45:18
  Speaker 1: might actually focus them here. But then again, their final
• 1:45:21
  Speaker 1: games are a home game against OKC and then they
• 1:45:23
  Speaker 1: play San Antonio, so those are big games they might
• 1:45:28
  Speaker 1: look ahead. But then on the other hand, Denver needs
• 1:45:31
  Speaker 1: to get a win here, man, like this is their
• 1:45:35
  Speaker 1: only remaining game that they absolutely should win because this
• 1:45:39
  Speaker 1: is a good chance they lose their remaining two games,
• 1:45:41
  Speaker 1: you know what I mean. Although those teams might not
• 1:45:43
  Speaker 1: have that much motivation at that point, but Denver kind
• 1:45:46
  Speaker 1: of has to get this win to make sure that
• 1:45:49
  Speaker 1: they don't risk falling behind Houston here, So there is
• 1:45:52
  Speaker 1: some motivation there for Denver. Isn't enough that I would
• 1:45:56
  Speaker 1: lay twenty two and a half points. No, no, it
• 1:45:58
  Speaker 1: is not. They can win this game by ten, you
• 1:46:01
  Speaker 1: know what I mean? Uh, seventy five tickets fifty percent
• 1:46:04
  Speaker 1: of the cash on the Nuggets, so the money is
• 1:46:06
  Speaker 1: indicating against them. I wouldn't lay it. Yeah, I mean,
• 1:46:11
  Speaker 1: it's just it's just too much, man, It is too much,
• 1:46:14
  Speaker 1: even though they might show up motivated. Of course, are
• 1:46:16
  Speaker 1: they motivated enough to blow out Memphis? Probably not. They
• 1:46:20
  Speaker 1: just need to get the win here. So yeah, I
• 1:46:24
  Speaker 1: don't want to do anything with the game, but I
• 1:46:25
  Speaker 1: would not lay it. I would lean towards taking the
• 1:46:27
  Speaker 1: points there. The second game in the ESPN doubleheader is
• 1:46:31
  Speaker 1: Portland and San Antonio. Portland is still trying to jockey
• 1:46:36
  Speaker 1: for playing positioning here. They're locked into one of the
• 1:46:39
  Speaker 1: playing games, but they want to move up. Dude. They
• 1:46:42
  Speaker 1: can over they can jump the Clippers, is what I mean.
• 1:46:46
  Speaker 1: And that is important because if you play in that
• 1:46:48
  Speaker 1: seven eight game, you only have to win one game
• 1:46:51
  Speaker 1: to get into the to get into the playoffs, instead
• 1:46:54
  Speaker 1: of having to win, instead of having instead of having
• 1:46:56
  Speaker 1: two having to win two games. Excuse me, because the
• 1:46:59
  Speaker 1: nine ten teams have to win twice, so that does matter,
• 1:47:03
  Speaker 1: So they might be playing for that at the very least.
• 1:47:06
  Speaker 1: And you know they're playing the San Antonio Spurs. I
• 1:47:08
  Speaker 1: mean that's going to focus you in a TV game. Now,
• 1:47:11
  Speaker 1: how focus is San Antonio gonna be I don't know,
• 1:47:14
  Speaker 1: because they're pretty much locked into the two seed here.
• 1:47:17
  Speaker 1: They're not gonna be able to overtake the Thunder, even
• 1:47:19
  Speaker 1: though they do have the tiebreaker against the Thunder because
• 1:47:22
  Speaker 1: they beat the Thunder like four out of five times
• 1:47:24
  Speaker 1: or whatever, though the Cup game might not count so
• 1:47:28
  Speaker 1: even still, still they do have the tiebreaker, the three
• 1:47:30
  Speaker 1: and one whatever, but it's not gonna happen unless okay,
• 1:47:34
  Speaker 1: see loses all their remaining games, So that's not gonna happen.
• 1:47:37
  Speaker 1: We know that. So San Antonio. Yeah, it's a home game.
• 1:47:42
  Speaker 1: They have been playing with motivation. It is an ESPN game.
• 1:47:46
  Speaker 1: Don't know that the motivation is going to be enough
• 1:47:48
  Speaker 1: here though, San Antonio just meet Philadelphia. Unfortunately that was
• 1:47:52
  Speaker 1: also a return home spot, although not from a long
• 1:47:55
  Speaker 1: road trip, but still we took the loss there. I
• 1:47:59
  Speaker 1: thought they might potentially be looking ahead here a little
• 1:48:02
  Speaker 1: bit to Portland. Maybe not San Antonio. All the remaining
• 1:48:04
  Speaker 1: games are at home. By the way, but this game, yeah,
• 1:48:08
  Speaker 1: I just don't know if they're gonna fully show up
• 1:48:10
  Speaker 1: for this and we know that they're not actually, because
• 1:48:12
  Speaker 1: as you can see, the Spurs are three and a
• 1:48:14
  Speaker 1: half point favorite, So what gives Like, why are they
• 1:48:17
  Speaker 1: only three and a half here against the Blazers. Obviously
• 1:48:20
  Speaker 1: that means somebody's not playing for the Spurs, and that
• 1:48:23
  Speaker 1: is true. Seventy eight percent of tickets eighty two percent
• 1:48:26
  Speaker 1: of the cash on the Spurs, so the money is
• 1:48:29
  Speaker 1: coming in and indicating on the Spurs side slightly. But
• 1:48:32
  Speaker 1: to me, it looks way too easy to lay the
• 1:48:34
  Speaker 1: points with the Spurs. But obviously what we know is
• 1:48:36
  Speaker 1: that Wemby is not playing in this game, like that's
• 1:48:40
  Speaker 1: why the line is this low. He's listed as a
• 1:48:42
  Speaker 1: game time decision, but I can tell you he's not playing.
• 1:48:45
  Speaker 1: He's doubtful. They're pretty much gonna give him a rest here,
• 1:48:48
  Speaker 1: so he's not playing in this game. Portland does have
• 1:48:51
  Speaker 1: more motivation here. I would lean to taking the points
• 1:48:54
  Speaker 1: with Portland three and a half, though not giving you
• 1:48:57
  Speaker 1: a lot of leeway there. With the Spurs team that
• 1:49:00
  Speaker 1: is still pretty good even without Wemby. But yeah, I
• 1:49:03
  Speaker 1: think the motivation is there for the Blazers. Slight lean
• 1:49:06
  Speaker 1: for me to the Blazers Thunder at Clippers. This will
• 1:49:10
  Speaker 1: probably be my strongest lean if I was gonna play
• 1:49:12
  Speaker 1: anything in the NBA today. The Thunder just had another
• 1:49:16
  Speaker 1: win against the Lakers last night, where I thought the
• 1:49:18
  Speaker 1: Lakers might bounce back and have a better performance, even
• 1:49:22
  Speaker 1: though we know the Lakers are massively shorthanded right now. Nope,
• 1:49:27
  Speaker 1: didn't happen. Oklahoma City blew them out again, very satisfying win.
• 1:49:31
  Speaker 1: Now they're staying in LA, but they're on a back
• 1:49:33
  Speaker 1: to back. They're going to the Clippers. They got a
• 1:49:36
  Speaker 1: probably bigger game I would say, against Denver on decks,
• 1:49:39
  Speaker 1: so it looks like kind of a sandwich spot here.
• 1:49:41
  Speaker 1: I mean know the Clippers are fighting to remain in
• 1:49:45
  Speaker 1: the top playing game here, so the Clippers need to
• 1:49:48
  Speaker 1: get wins and that is not an easy task against
• 1:49:51
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma City. So the Clippers, I think you're gonna get
• 1:49:54
  Speaker 1: motivation out of them here. Clippers coming into this game
• 1:49:57
  Speaker 1: off of they also played yesterday's at home though, and
• 1:50:00
  Speaker 1: they beat Dallas yesterday, so the spot is better for them.
• 1:50:04
  Speaker 1: I think, in my opinion, it's a less satisfying win
• 1:50:08
  Speaker 1: staying at home here, they get OKC coming in, they
• 1:50:11
  Speaker 1: have more to play for here. The Clippers are not
• 1:50:13
  Speaker 1: as bad as their record looks. I'm gonna lean to
• 1:50:15
  Speaker 1: the Clippers here. The Thunder down to six and a
• 1:50:17
  Speaker 1: half from seven. I would try to get the seven
• 1:50:20
  Speaker 1: because it is a key ish number in basketball where
• 1:50:23
  Speaker 1: teams stop potentially fouling. Seventy percent of the tickets seventy
• 1:50:26
  Speaker 1: two percent of the cash on the Thunder, so they
• 1:50:29
  Speaker 1: are kind of a public side. I don't really buy
• 1:50:33
  Speaker 1: cash percentage. That's that small, like a cash differential. I mean,
• 1:50:37
  Speaker 1: that's that small there. I think the right side is
• 1:50:40
  Speaker 1: the Clippers, and that one probably my strongest opinion in
• 1:50:42
  Speaker 1: the NBA today. Don't want to put it on my card,
• 1:50:45
  Speaker 1: but I would take the points there. And then we
• 1:50:47
  Speaker 1: have Dallas and Phoenix. I just don't know that there's
• 1:50:50
  Speaker 1: any motivation in that game at all in either way.
• 1:50:53
  Speaker 1: I mean, Phoenix is well Phoenix, I get. I don't
• 1:50:57
  Speaker 1: think there's a chance they can drop out of the
• 1:50:59
  Speaker 1: top playing game, but I guess there is a chance
• 1:51:02
  Speaker 1: they can lose home court here, so that's really what
• 1:51:05
  Speaker 1: they have to play for here. But they're I mean,
• 1:51:07
  Speaker 1: even that's pretty unlikely. They're pretty close to being locked
• 1:51:11
  Speaker 1: into the seven seed Phoenix is. But of course then Dallas,
• 1:51:15
  Speaker 1: you know, just has nothing to play for here. But
• 1:51:19
  Speaker 1: you know, maybe because they got Cooper Flag there, you know,
• 1:51:21
  Speaker 1: he's a rookie, maybe they will actually show up with
• 1:51:23
  Speaker 1: some effort here. But they're playing a third game in
• 1:51:26
  Speaker 1: four days, they're on a back to back, they got
• 1:51:28
  Speaker 1: San Antonio on deck, but I think they will probably
• 1:51:31
  Speaker 1: try to show up for Phoenix. You know, they have
• 1:51:33
  Speaker 1: a chance to maybe spoil Phoenix's you know, playing party
• 1:51:39
  Speaker 1: or whatever you want to call it, and try to
• 1:51:41
  Speaker 1: force them to have to play a road game. Phoenix
• 1:51:44
  Speaker 1: is not really in a terrible spot necessarily, though. They
• 1:51:46
  Speaker 1: were turned over from the road in the last game
• 1:51:49
  Speaker 1: and lost to Houston and what was kind of a
• 1:51:51
  Speaker 1: bad spot in return home spot. Usually that second game
• 1:51:55
  Speaker 1: back you play a little bit better, and it is
• 1:51:57
  Speaker 1: their final home game. But then again, and where's the
• 1:52:00
  Speaker 1: motivation is really my question here. They do finish with
• 1:52:03
  Speaker 1: LA and Oklahoma City, but that might mean they do
• 1:52:06
  Speaker 1: have to kind of win this game against Dallas though,
• 1:52:08
  Speaker 1: because if they think they're gonna lose their remaining two games.
• 1:52:12
  Speaker 1: You know, there is a real chance they're not gonna
• 1:52:14
  Speaker 1: get the home court here, and how much is how
• 1:52:17
  Speaker 1: much of a motivator is that? I don't know, because
• 1:52:20
  Speaker 1: they think it's still pretty unlikely they're gonna fall completely
• 1:52:22
  Speaker 1: out of that first playing game, but they do want
• 1:52:25
  Speaker 1: home court. I think if they can get it, the
• 1:52:27
  Speaker 1: money is all coming in on the Mavericks though. The
• 1:52:30
  Speaker 1: Suns are ten and a half point favorite, but of
• 1:52:32
  Speaker 1: course it means they can win and not cover too,
• 1:52:34
  Speaker 1: although I wouldn't really be banking on that, but they're
• 1:52:37
  Speaker 1: double digit favorite, seventy eight percent of tickets, so it's
• 1:52:40
  Speaker 1: more likely they can win and not cover. I mean
• 1:52:43
  Speaker 1: seventy eight percent of tickets on the Suns, fifty seven
• 1:52:45
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on the Mavericks. Money coming in
• 1:52:48
  Speaker 1: on the MAVs there. You know, I don't really have
• 1:52:53
  Speaker 1: a good opinion on it. I would just say that's
• 1:52:55
  Speaker 1: what the Margaret Reta is saying, and I don't lean
• 1:52:59
  Speaker 1: that strongly in other directions. So doing that information what
• 1:53:03
  Speaker 1: you want, but that's gonna do it. Man. That's it
• 1:53:06
  Speaker 1: for the show today. We got a bunch of plays.
• 1:53:08
  Speaker 1: We got some afternoon baseball with the Milwaukee Brewers money line.
• 1:53:13
  Speaker 1: We got under in Seattle and Texas. In baseball, we
• 1:53:16
  Speaker 1: got a night baseball game with Tampa Bay. If you
• 1:53:19
  Speaker 1: want that's money line. I mean, if you want to
• 1:53:21
  Speaker 1: go first five inning money line, you could do that too.
• 1:53:23
  Speaker 1: The price was a little bit more expensive. And we're
• 1:53:26
  Speaker 1: on the Washington Capitals and hockey on the money line
• 1:53:28
  Speaker 1: as well. So four plays today, let's get it done.
• 1:53:32
  Speaker 1: That's gonna do it. Learn a tonde on Twitter. You
• 1:53:34
  Speaker 1: can subscribe to me there that helps me out. Learn
• 1:53:37
  Speaker 1: a tode on Instagram, like subscribe boost the channel here, man,
• 1:53:41
  Speaker 1: give me good replies here. We're on audio as well.
• 1:53:45
  Speaker 1: Apple Spotify spreaker gets me a little bit of a
• 1:53:48
  Speaker 1: boost that people listen on there. Covered in you because
• 1:53:51
  Speaker 1: my yuke channel on YouTube. Gotta get that up to
• 1:53:54
  Speaker 1: date as well. I got some ute covers I haven't
• 1:53:56
  Speaker 1: put up there yet. Have to go to the Patreon
• 1:53:58
  Speaker 1: and update the feed over there too. Apologize, man, I
• 1:54:00
  Speaker 1: just don't do enough for the Patreon, you know, it
• 1:54:04
  Speaker 1: basically just become like a support mechanism. But yeah, let
• 1:54:06
  Speaker 1: me uh, I gotta come up with some things. Man,
• 1:54:09
  Speaker 1: It's just that I don't know this stuff takes a
• 1:54:11
  Speaker 1: lot out of me. If I get an actual job
• 1:54:13
  Speaker 1: again as well, which I don't know if I'm going to,
• 1:54:15
  Speaker 1: but you know, if I do that, that's gonna take
• 1:54:17
  Speaker 1: up all of my time as well, So you know,
• 1:54:21
  Speaker 1: it's just yeah, it is the way that it is.
• 1:54:23
  Speaker 1: Maybe I should. I don't want to close the Patreon,
• 1:54:25
  Speaker 1: but I don't know. Man, I gotta do something. So
• 1:54:28
  Speaker 1: maybe tonight, maybe I'll do a yuke jam session tonight
• 1:54:31
  Speaker 1: and not do a Patreon only one yet, just to
• 1:54:33
  Speaker 1: see if people like it. I don't know, maybe I will.
• 1:54:36
  Speaker 1: Maybe I'll come back tonight and do it. Uh, because
• 1:54:39
  Speaker 1: a lot of times they just sit around and play
• 1:54:40
  Speaker 1: yuke anyway, so why not hang out while while I
• 1:54:43
  Speaker 1: do it anyway? Yeah, I think that's Oh and loser
• 1:54:48
  Speaker 1: Cast of course. Yeah, loser Cast was on last night
• 1:54:51
  Speaker 1: Fun episode last night. Go check that out. I think
• 1:54:54
  Speaker 1: loser Casts will actually be resuming Thursday episodes, but I
• 1:54:57
  Speaker 1: will not be on them. So do those episodes really
• 1:55:00
  Speaker 1: even exist? Does Adam and Nutter actually exist? Probably not.
• 1:55:05
  Speaker 1: So whatever that's gonna do it, I appreciate it. Guys.
• 1:55:09
  Speaker 1: Let's get some wins today. Peace,