Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Felix Prehn - This is the Best Investing Opportunity of Your Life + Stock Market News 12 November 2024

Transcript

Felix Prehn - This is the Best Investing Opportunity of Your Life + Stock Market News 12 November 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:10
  Speaker 1: Felix here and welcome to this pre-market live stream.
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: What a week it has been so far.
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: Markets seem to be taking a slight breather this morning, but worry not, because the weather forecast is absolutely freaking wonderful.
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: That's what I want to walk you through.
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: Not just the weather forecast is absolutely freaking wonderful, and that's what I want to walk you through.
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: Not just the weather forecast, but the actual insight from Wall Street's finest when is the rally going to end?
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: What should we be buying right now?
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: Let's look at all the beautiful stocks out there, the breakouts, the breakdowns and everything in between.
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: And should I book profits for my Tesla and that kind of thing?
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: We're going to look at exactly that sort of question, my friend, in the next little while here.
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: So smash the you know what and ask questions, and I will share my screen with you and show you a couple of things.
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: You have a frame first, what's actually happening here, and then we go specific on stocks and sectors, charts and buying and selling and all that kind of fun stuff here.
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: But are you having a nice week?
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: Is your portfolio looking so green?
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: It's almost hard to believe.
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: I think our teaching portfolio added another 65% gains this week, which should take us to somewhere in the 150% mark for the year, which is a rather nice way to round off the year end.
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: So when is it going to end?
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: When is the whole madness going to come to a screeching halt and make us all cry?
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: Is it anytime soon?
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: Well, not.
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: According to the past, in election years, the SNP from November 11th.
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: What's the date today?
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: I never know.
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: November 12th, okay.
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: Up to March in this case, the S&P typically goes up four percentage points.
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: It doesn't sound like a lot, but it's actually quite a lot.
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: 4% on $6,000.
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: It takes us to $6,240, which is quite extraordinary.
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: And of course, certain segments of the market could move a heck of a lot more right.
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: Where's the square box?
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: You missed that, didn't you?
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: Wouldn't it be nice if every video had a square box?
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: What the heck was that all about?
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: I have no idea.
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: I think some camera funny thing recorded about 2000 videos and never had a square box before.
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: But it made a few of you smile, which is always my intention.
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: So seasonality looks pretty good, but it gets better.
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: You see mutual funds and yeah, they still exist.
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: A lot of people still like to pay a lot of money in fees and hand it all over straight to Wall Street.
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: You know, make sure that all those bankers and idiotic money managers can get a nice big bonus and buy a Maserati.
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: I actually bought a car today and the chap, the car dealer, drove me back home which was very kind of him and we saw a Maserati in front of us and he said that car is usually about new.
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: It's about I don't know 260,000, and that particular one in front of us was about 10, 12 years old.
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: He said that's now selling for about 14,000.
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: So it's gone down like 90% in value.
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: Apparently, maseratis have that problem high maintenance costs and so on.
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: But I get sidetracked because I was thinking about what the mutual fund managers would do with their bonuses, wasn't I?
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: Basically, if you look at the 2016 election my last Trump win a ton of money moved into the market and that means more buying, right.
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: If we repeat the same pattern from where we are right now to the 2016 pattern, that would add about 540 billion.
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: You know real billions, none of that biden billion thing.
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: Trillion billion.
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: You didn't really know what the difference was.
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: Poor, poor, poor chap, which is quite a lot of money, right.
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: So you know, possible we might go a lot, lot higher just from the mutual funds chasing.
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: But the best news, the best news you're going to hear today is, um, cars are not assets, with some exceptions, but yes, you're right, generally speaking, cars are a hideous way of burning cash, which is just why I bought a secondhand car because somebody else lost all the money A nice lady apparently.
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: At least it says so on the paperwork.
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: So, excellent, picture, this picture, this video.
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: Okay, very glad to hear that my friend um, should I sell riot?
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: Okay, we're gonna go through all of that.
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: Do you think tesla will have a little pullback and all that stuff?
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: We're gonna look at exactly that.
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: But this is important.
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: First, 95 of corporates, that is, big stocks.
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: Right, big companies are in the open window.
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: For what?
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: Getting fresh air?
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: No, for buybacks.
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: It is the best seasonal period of the year, not just because Santa is coming soon.
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: Do you see that targets put up signs again that say Merry Christmas, which is apparently shocking, because they've been running with happy holidays for a while, because they didn't want to offend the occasional person who was of a different religious affination around the Christmas season and therefore they thought they'd write happy holidays.
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: Isn't that a load of nonsense?
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: I think that's a load of nonsense.
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: I remember when I was in London as a student and they started doing that first year or two, it was happy Christmas across the street.
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: I was living on Oxford Street, the main shopping street.
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: It's a total dump nowadays, but it was all right back then.
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: And then they changed it to happy holidays because they didn't want to offend the Muslims and the Hindus and so on.
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: And you know what?
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: I was living with lots of Muslims and Hindus and none of them were offended.
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: It was just some woke idiot at a council.
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: Anyway, I digress.
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: Lots of money pouring into the market about 12 billion a day from buybacks, and now you're going to ask me but when is it going to stop?
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: When is it going to stop?
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: Well, first of all, they spent most of their money in November that's the best month of the year followed by February, followed by August.
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: Those are the big buyback months.
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: It is coming to an end on Christmas Eve.
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: Apparently, buybacks are very religious and they don't think it's right to be buying over Christmas.
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: Why would companies do buybacks at all-time highs?
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: They schedule it, my friend.
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: They don't really think about the stock price all that much.
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: Typically, most of the time, it is just a scheduled thing.
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: You've told the broker go do this.
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: They collect their fees and they buy and they don't really care about the stock prices.
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: But yeah, I totally get that the work movement is a major setback.
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: Well, not yet in the UK and in Europe, but in the US absolutely.
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: Very few assets and you can't drive the ones that are, says Scott you might have a point there that those cars, well yes, you probably shouldn't drive them because then you might depreciate the asset.
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: So Christmas Eve, maybe time to take some profits?
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: I'm just warning you there Now, between now and Christmas Eve, there'll be lots of breakouts, there'll be lots of rallies, there'll be lots of excitement and if you want to understand what those rules are, to spot those very breakouts we're running today, in about 12 hours or so, about 10 hours or so even is it 10 hours, I think about 10 hours at 8 pm New York time, a live beginner bootcamp.
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: So this is for investors, this is for traders, this is for people who know nothing, this is for people who know something and who want to make their money work harder for them and potentially beat the market using the good old rules that I will teach you how to spot those breakouts and you can also ask me a ton of questions.
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: So what do you have to do?
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: You have to go to felixfensorg bootcamp and register, and that is, of course, completely free of charge.
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: I will be probably be live for about 90 minutes or so, so come and join us.
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: Felix has a Bugatti.
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: No, no, no, no.
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: Are you currently in London or the south of France?
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: Scott is right, I'm in Hong Kong at the moment.
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: I tend to winter in Hong Kong.
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: I don't do well in the cold.
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: You see, I suffered as a child terribly growing up in the north of Germany.
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: It was horrible.
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: It was minus 20 degrees and you had to go to school in the dark.
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: Horrible.
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: Still have nightmares about it, which is why I like the tropics and Europe in the summer.
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: The biggest Trump winners so far are Bitcoin and Tesla, and I just had an interesting conversation, actually, with a crypto person.
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: He was again affirming to me what all the other crypto people have been telling me.
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: I've been speaking to the last few days and they're saying the altcoin rally is about to kick off properly, so a lot of money to be made.
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: Bernstein, which is an asset manager, they send out a note to all their clients which said something like get Bitcoin or crypto exposure immediately.
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: If you need help, call us, which is fairly dramatic.
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: I think they have a point.
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: Quite frankly, small spaces training class is highly worth it, for sure.
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: Recommend if you haven't.
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: I appreciate that.
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: Thank you, chris.
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: I have sinister chuckles, apparently, do I?
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: Um, is that one of those?
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: Uh, probably right when I say something devious that offends people.
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: I enjoy offending people.
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: All right, let's.
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: Let's summarize this here from the finest at goldman sachs the bankers with a golden heart who love the little man on the street, which is why they don't share it with them, but I do.
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: Goldman's Scott Rupner.
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: He is saying the following on the Melt app.
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: That's what this is right.
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: He's saying we've seen massive inflows into stocks until April 2017, last time Trump won, which would imply the rallies got some legs.
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: Yeah, 540 billion post-election demand could move into the market, which hasn't yet, which is what I just showed you above, and we're looking at about 12 billion of inflows each day for the past week, and we haven't seen these figures since when 2016,.
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: The Donald does it again.
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: So the rally, in my opinion, is going to go on for a little while Again to make the point here seasonality wise, we're here.
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: We tend to end the March up there about 4% higher on the S&P, which is fairly significant for the S&P.
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: I also wanted to make myself a note to look at small caps, because look at that textbook breakout here that we had sort of a thing of beauty really.
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: We had this resistance line here, right, we were basically not coming out of that zone and kept bouncing off the same lows again and again and then we broke out of it, probably with quite a lot of volume and oomph, and we've gone up very, very, very nicely.
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: So if you're in small caps, finally you're having your moment.
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: And guess what?
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: The FOMO is so bad.
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: People are buying ARKK again, which of course is Auntie Kathy's little thing, which is again breaking out very nicely.
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: So you had that sort of zone here and you broke out there.
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: So everything is basically going up, literally everything.
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: Doge the coin, the sort of crypto coin, is now worth the same as Ford.
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: When I read that I thought, well, ford is probably rather overvalued.