Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / The Favorites - Best Bets NFL Week 17

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The Favorites - Best Bets NFL Week 17 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

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Speaker 1: eight Hope and Why, or text Hope and Why four
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Speaker 1: one eight hundred gambler dot net in West Virginia. Welcome
1:21
Speaker 1: to the Favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network.
1:25
Speaker 1: I am Chad Moment Cheap Content Officer of the Action Network.
1:29
Speaker 1: I am joined as I am for every episode by
1:31
Speaker 1: my bff, my companion, my compadre, professional better Simon Hunter,
1:39
Speaker 1: Hello swim In, Hello Chat, our last show of Wow.
1:45
Speaker 1: I didn't even think put it in context against the
1:49
Speaker 1: end of the year. It's been such a wacky week
1:52
Speaker 1: with vacations getting canceled and sort of feeling a little
1:55
Speaker 1: bit lost that I've forgotten that all of a sudden,
1:59
Speaker 1: this weekend is the last weekend of the year. Man,
2:03
Speaker 1: we did it. Who is your Uh? Did you get
2:05
Speaker 1: your Action thing into the year thing? From Action app
2:07
Speaker 1: where he said with what team you bet on the
2:09
Speaker 1: most and won the most on I did? I love
2:12
Speaker 1: that review, and of course I've completely forgotten it already, um,
2:16
Speaker 1: but I love it. Uh way to plug your product? Well,
2:19
Speaker 1: I got the Bengals, which I was shocked at. And
2:22
Speaker 1: then it made sense because if you're near to the
2:24
Speaker 1: show that your me. Chad were hot. Last year in
2:27
Speaker 1: the playoffs, I won eleven and four best bets. Chad
2:30
Speaker 1: went twelve and three best bets. And I went through
2:33
Speaker 1: and I looked all my bets from the Bengals, and
2:36
Speaker 1: then this year all my bets had pretty much on
2:38
Speaker 1: the Bengals. So my best team for two was the Bengals,
2:41
Speaker 1: which not too much of a shock. I think someone
2:43
Speaker 1: put it out there there the best team a t
2:47
Speaker 1: S in the last like twenty years since we started
2:49
Speaker 1: tracking data, this has just been insane run by this
2:52
Speaker 1: Bengals team. My best league was the NFL UP twenty
2:56
Speaker 1: one units and three and NFL bets this year. My
3:02
Speaker 1: best months were January and November. Ah yeah, of course
3:07
Speaker 1: and November this past month was just rocket ship. My
3:10
Speaker 1: biggest win was September twenty five, the Dolphins beating the Bills. Oh.
3:17
Speaker 1: I had a big win on Jacksonville beating of the year.
3:21
Speaker 1: I'm getting there. My worst team was Houston Texans. Man,
3:28
Speaker 1: it's like we never found the right rhythm with the Texas.
3:31
Speaker 1: We were on them so much early and have not
3:33
Speaker 1: been on him as much as late. And the team
3:35
Speaker 1: I could count on the most my top team, like
3:38
Speaker 1: you Cincinnati Bengals, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Commanders. Interesting. I listened
3:45
Speaker 1: to the Action Network podcast earlier this year. My overall
3:49
Speaker 1: record was this year sixteen and three for all bets
3:54
Speaker 1: across all sports tracked in the Action Network app. So
3:57
Speaker 1: it's a really cool sort of Spotify like wrap up.
4:01
Speaker 1: I listened to the Action Network podcast this morning. Was
4:03
Speaker 1: Stucky in Raybon uh Rabon's best team was also the Bengals.
4:09
Speaker 1: I think a lot of people we're gonna have the
4:10
Speaker 1: Bengals as the best team you bet on football, given
4:12
Speaker 1: the fact that they're twenty and three against spread the
4:14
Speaker 1: last twenty three games and that end of the Ever
4:17
Speaker 1: feel like a lot of the pros just rode the
4:19
Speaker 1: Bengals in the playoffs like that. Every game, I feel
4:22
Speaker 1: like they're catching a couple of points and you're just like,
4:24
Speaker 1: well them as a dog, they'll only loser win by three.
4:26
Speaker 1: And yeah, that pretty much carried a lot of people
4:28
Speaker 1: last year. Yep, that's totally true, totally true. It is Thursday,
4:32
Speaker 1: As is our custom on Thursday, we will try to
4:35
Speaker 1: nail down our final five as is always the custom
4:38
Speaker 1: as well. You can follow those picks uh just about
4:42
Speaker 1: an hour before kickoff, Simon and I will put them
4:44
Speaker 1: in the Action Network app. Follow the Phaves five to
4:47
Speaker 1: get all of the picks. The other picks follow the
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Speaker 1: Favorites podcast. Reminder we do that separately. Just a reminder.
4:54
Speaker 1: The Phase five is just the five picks that Simon
4:57
Speaker 1: and I put in our contest. We are currently five
4:59
Speaker 1: games out of first. We're a top fifty. We are
5:01
Speaker 1: pretty much guaranteed to be in the money out of
5:03
Speaker 1: four thousand people. But when you get to top ten
5:05
Speaker 1: is when you make the big money. So we are
5:07
Speaker 1: still striving in these last two weeks to make up
5:10
Speaker 1: ground and get to the top ten. Um Our foxhold
5:13
Speaker 1: this week was the Texans plus four. Unfortunately that number
5:17
Speaker 1: is at four and a half. H Simon says was
5:19
Speaker 1: Vikings plus three and a half. That is still the
5:21
Speaker 1: current number. Uh. The exact decision. I'm excited to hear
5:24
Speaker 1: if there were shop calls about this for me, the
5:26
Speaker 1: Bills minus one and a half. We owe you a
5:28
Speaker 1: big balls, we owe you a scoot roulette, we owe
5:30
Speaker 1: you a money line around Robin as always, Let's start
5:35
Speaker 1: with sharp calls. Hello, who's there. I'm talking telephone, Chad.
5:51
Speaker 1: You already know I's pretty busy this week, so I'll
5:53
Speaker 1: be up front with the fans. I all the calls
5:56
Speaker 1: I usually take. I pushed a lot of them to
5:58
Speaker 1: my lackeys. Let them do my minions, let them do
6:00
Speaker 1: a lot of the work this week. So I mean,
6:02
Speaker 1: I gotta I got a bunch of the games, but
6:04
Speaker 1: it's not it's not gonna be one of my stronger weeks,
6:06
Speaker 1: and it's gonna be one of those weeks to where
6:08
Speaker 1: most of the pros they're just I don't know, not
6:11
Speaker 1: that they're going hard this week, but they kind of
6:13
Speaker 1: took positions early in the week based off a lot
6:15
Speaker 1: of rumors and noise. They're kind of just waiting for
6:17
Speaker 1: this next week. In the playoffs, where next week is
6:19
Speaker 1: you find a lot of value. There's certain teams you'll
6:21
Speaker 1: see next week that are simply quitting or taking off.
6:24
Speaker 1: Were other teams you know they're going full board or
6:26
Speaker 1: they're not gonna play either because they're arrest ours for
6:28
Speaker 1: the playoffs. So yeah, there's always action, Like I got
6:31
Speaker 1: games here, we'll talk about where guys are. It's a
6:33
Speaker 1: lot of split. People are betting both sides, but there's
6:36
Speaker 1: no like dudes making big, big bets or guys taking
6:39
Speaker 1: huge stains. I mean, the craziest action I would say
6:41
Speaker 1: early on was that forty Niners news, which I was
6:44
Speaker 1: gonna be all in on the Raiders, and I simply said,
6:47
Speaker 1: I gotta wait and see what the deal is. You said, wait,
6:49
Speaker 1: I actually have a note of it. I thought it
6:51
Speaker 1: was very impressive. You said we would like Vegas plus six,
6:55
Speaker 1: but you said just to wait. We gotta keep our
6:58
Speaker 1: powder dry. And it's just it's just because we're ratting
7:02
Speaker 1: this season where money is real. Like the owner of
7:05
Speaker 1: the Raiders is a cheap dude. I think everyone can
7:08
Speaker 1: agree on that this guy is pretty cheap. He's not
7:10
Speaker 1: a self made man. He's a guy that took over
7:12
Speaker 1: his dad's business and he's running it. And that's a
7:15
Speaker 1: lot of money that they're can admit that Derek Carr
7:18
Speaker 1: Deirk Carr say blew his knee out in this final game,
7:21
Speaker 1: like they'd be stuck in it contractually if he got injured.
7:24
Speaker 1: So they're making a business decision. So piss, I didn't
7:27
Speaker 1: take the other side because I I was just like,
7:29
Speaker 1: all right, I'll throw them in a teaser or something.
7:30
Speaker 1: The four nineers for very small didn't put a lot
7:33
Speaker 1: into it, just took them to win straight up. And
7:35
Speaker 1: got a text that morning, like again, I was traveling,
7:37
Speaker 1: got a text, Hey, deir Car, I don't think he's
7:40
Speaker 1: gonna play. I think he's gonna come out, He's gonna
7:42
Speaker 1: sit just take the number. And I was like, ah,
7:44
Speaker 1: I gotta wait and see because I don't I didn't
7:46
Speaker 1: really trust the source on it. Man, were the pros
7:49
Speaker 1: all over that one? So that that sucked and missed
7:51
Speaker 1: that boat. Jalen Hurts one sucks to where I thought
7:54
Speaker 1: Jalen Hurts was gonna play. It's looking more and more
7:56
Speaker 1: based off the line movement that people are getting info,
7:58
Speaker 1: it seems like he's kno gonna play. He hasn't practiced either,
8:01
Speaker 1: So get into shark calls this week. We're split chat.
8:05
Speaker 1: We are split down the middle of Well, start with
8:07
Speaker 1: the green Bay Vikings game. I get where they're coming
8:10
Speaker 1: from why they like green Bay in this matchup, but
8:13
Speaker 1: I just feel like it's too much disrespect to the Vikings.
8:16
Speaker 1: At three and a half, that's a great number. In
8:18
Speaker 1: a divisional game where that let's do the Vikings are
8:20
Speaker 1: they play these games close? And if green Bay was
8:23
Speaker 1: some juggernaut, if this was a forty Niners say, Okay,
8:27
Speaker 1: I'll give the benefit to that home team. Catch a
8:29
Speaker 1: three minus three and a half at home. Yeah, I'll
8:32
Speaker 1: be on the forty ninager against the Vikings green Bay
8:35
Speaker 1: with Aaron Rodgers. This just isn't what people think they are.
8:37
Speaker 1: They're just not as good as people perceive them. They've
8:39
Speaker 1: had really good matchups here these last couple of weeks
8:41
Speaker 1: and played some bad teams. They peaked out some good wins.
8:43
Speaker 1: Like I'll give them credit for that minus three and
8:46
Speaker 1: a half, though, that just feels like such an overaction.
8:48
Speaker 1: So interesting hearing that there's pros who actually like green Bay.
8:51
Speaker 1: They took him at three, they took him my minus
8:52
Speaker 1: two and a half. They still said they'd taken my
8:54
Speaker 1: minus three and a half. I just totally disagree with
8:56
Speaker 1: that one. Um. I get once in there, I get
9:00
Speaker 1: where they're coming from, but I'm just on the other
9:03
Speaker 1: side of it. And the same goes for this Jet
9:06
Speaker 1: Seahawks game. The pros think, not only that the Sea
9:10
Speaker 1: ere do that this is too much of an overaction
9:12
Speaker 1: to a Seahawks team at home that they played well
9:15
Speaker 1: at home. And I still think it's the same thing
9:17
Speaker 1: where me and you already got burned on this, where
9:19
Speaker 1: the Seahawks just aren't the same team that were earlier
9:21
Speaker 1: in the year. The book seems like it's had on Gino.
9:24
Speaker 1: The Jets are healthy, right if Mike White's playing in
9:26
Speaker 1: this game, and that's all guaranteed. I just I love
9:29
Speaker 1: this number for them. They just feel like a better
9:31
Speaker 1: version of the Carolina Panthers, and we saw the Panthers
9:34
Speaker 1: go up Seattle absolutely dominate this team. So shocked to
9:37
Speaker 1: hear that the pros loved this number so much. Um.
9:40
Speaker 1: I just to me, the Jets were like the right
9:42
Speaker 1: side and the pros are against us again with the
9:45
Speaker 1: picks we're on. Um. But the one they like that
9:47
Speaker 1: Chad made, I'm almost possiti you made was the bill, Dude.
9:52
Speaker 1: That was my exact decision. It Yeah, And I'm so
9:57
Speaker 1: I just don't get it. It's the same thing to
9:59
Speaker 1: do where it's like I'll support it, I'll back it.
10:01
Speaker 1: It's a game I just don't have a great read on.
10:03
Speaker 1: But I just feel like to play here is you
10:05
Speaker 1: just tease up since and you kind of kind of
10:08
Speaker 1: push this one and just enjoy this game where man,
10:11
Speaker 1: it's just such a coin flip game. But like the
10:14
Speaker 1: pros are agreeing with you, you're getting the better team
10:17
Speaker 1: under a fuel goal. Gotta back Josh Allen and they believe.
10:22
Speaker 1: I'm like, that's not all public money. The reason that
10:25
Speaker 1: the Bills are the biggest bet team to win the
10:27
Speaker 1: superstiue that's a lot of pro money too. So it's
10:30
Speaker 1: a guy the pros love, and they're they're right there
10:33
Speaker 1: with Chad. They think this number should be minus three.
10:36
Speaker 1: I think it should be a pick. It's right in
10:38
Speaker 1: the middle of minus one and a half. And I'll
10:40
Speaker 1: ride with my guy chat here. So I'm still back
10:42
Speaker 1: in the Bills. It was just interesting. I thought this
10:44
Speaker 1: should be more of a split game. The the pros
10:47
Speaker 1: love the Bills here. They love them. By the way,
10:51
Speaker 1: this line is now down to minus one, which is
10:56
Speaker 1: interesting because of the money pros backing the Bills, the
11:03
Speaker 1: tickets backing the Bengals. So for people listening live and
11:07
Speaker 1: for people who will be listening over the nexts, do
11:12
Speaker 1: we bet the Bills at minus one? If you can
11:14
Speaker 1: find it at minus one. It is uh uh, there
11:18
Speaker 1: are minus ones out there. Yeah. Also, I think that's
11:20
Speaker 1: part of the teaser, the teaser, like where like you
11:22
Speaker 1: get a six point teaser, that's seven and a half.
11:24
Speaker 1: That's such a key number. The books moved the seven.
11:27
Speaker 1: Now most books they kind of lost on a on
11:29
Speaker 1: a teaser if it's a push, so um makes sense
11:32
Speaker 1: they moved it. It's just it's exactly what we just
11:36
Speaker 1: talked about. Child Like, I get where you're coming from.
11:39
Speaker 1: But if I if I see this game any NETI pick,
11:41
Speaker 1: I could honestly because that's where I have. And I
11:43
Speaker 1: just feel like the pros they love, they just loved
11:46
Speaker 1: the bills. I feel like they're blind to it at
11:48
Speaker 1: this point, but I get exactly where they're coming from.
11:51
Speaker 1: It's just I feel like it's an overlay of a
11:56
Speaker 1: bunch of pros are pissed because they keep losing money,
11:59
Speaker 1: fading Joe Burrow and they it's like three weeks straight
12:01
Speaker 1: now that I know some really smart guys, and every
12:04
Speaker 1: week they fucking calling me, and they got me last
12:07
Speaker 1: week where I totally agreed with him. I thought that
12:09
Speaker 1: was the exact right spot to take The Patriots we
12:12
Speaker 1: just got simply unlucky. But I honestly count that as
12:14
Speaker 1: a loss to Joe. So as much as I get there,
12:17
Speaker 1: what they're chasing here on fading Joe Burrow and it's
12:20
Speaker 1: gonna catch up to him like this, this will catch
12:22
Speaker 1: up to them. That's what I'm a little worried about
12:24
Speaker 1: this Bengos team heading into the playoffs, that they peaked
12:26
Speaker 1: these last couple of weeks and they're kind of gotta
12:28
Speaker 1: fade down the stretch here. So you and all the
12:30
Speaker 1: other you and the pros are on the smart side
12:32
Speaker 1: of You're you're backing the fact that numbers gonna catch
12:35
Speaker 1: up to Joe eventually, which you will, and you're back
12:37
Speaker 1: in the fact that he hasn't caught a loss against
12:41
Speaker 1: the spread, and fucking ah, what is it eight weeks?
12:44
Speaker 1: Like nine weeks, it's something crazy like that, where he's
12:46
Speaker 1: just been a covering machine. So I totally get where
12:49
Speaker 1: you guys are coming from. I think it's just I'm
12:52
Speaker 1: just scared to put the money against them. That's the
12:54
Speaker 1: honest truth. Where it's like, I'm totally with these guys.
12:57
Speaker 1: It's gonna catch them eventually. But it's just interesting that
12:59
Speaker 1: these guys are making a bigger bet on the bills
13:02
Speaker 1: where it's a prime time game and they know this
13:05
Speaker 1: number is gonna fluctuate, like this is the money night game.
13:07
Speaker 1: Depending on how this week goes, We're going to see
13:10
Speaker 1: a lot of money pouring in on this game on
13:11
Speaker 1: Monday Night. I like it. I like when I'm on
13:18
Speaker 1: the same side as the wise guys. It is a
13:20
Speaker 1: good feeling, honestly. That's why, like I wish I was
13:22
Speaker 1: more committed to it, where it's like made sense that
13:25
Speaker 1: so many really smart guys are putting big amounts on it.
13:28
Speaker 1: I freaking love it. Love it. Um, let's dig into
13:32
Speaker 1: another game, a couple other games. Uh, the Jets. That
13:37
Speaker 1: number is down to one and a half. We liked
13:39
Speaker 1: it on Tuesday at two and a half. It's now
13:41
Speaker 1: down to one and a half. I don't know that
13:44
Speaker 1: we will move much more than that. I'm with you.
13:47
Speaker 1: I think that we've seen Pete Gino. This team is
13:53
Speaker 1: not going to get better. They're not going to get
13:55
Speaker 1: better playing against a really, really, really good top five
13:59
Speaker 1: in the league. Jets defense, a Jets defense that can
14:04
Speaker 1: basically do what it wants against the run, daring Geno
14:09
Speaker 1: Smith to beat them and has really incredible back end
14:12
Speaker 1: coverage exactly. That to me is a difference like that,
14:16
Speaker 1: the fact that they can run man, that's such a
14:18
Speaker 1: huge advantage. We've seen it all year with this Jets team,
14:20
Speaker 1: so um I told you makes sense what they're they're
14:24
Speaker 1: what they're thinking is where the Seahawks. Where there's the
14:27
Speaker 1: same thing of how overdue the Seahawks are to cover
14:30
Speaker 1: and win games at this point, I like for their
14:32
Speaker 1: standpoint if it's this is just the better version of
14:35
Speaker 1: Carolina with better I don't want to say better coaching,
14:38
Speaker 1: because Carolina's coaching has improved ever since they got rid
14:41
Speaker 1: of their last seat coach. But this Jets team they
14:45
Speaker 1: played so well. I know it doesn't didn't play out
14:48
Speaker 1: that way, but they played so well against the Jaguars
14:49
Speaker 1: team that was humming offensively. They held them to a
14:52
Speaker 1: bunch of field goals and that was a lot of
14:54
Speaker 1: times where they were on a short field because Jack
14:55
Speaker 1: Wilson was so animick on the offense. So nothing's changed
14:58
Speaker 1: for me, where like you bringing a quarterback the team
15:00
Speaker 1: believes in that's a spark to a team. We saw
15:03
Speaker 1: the week where they went to Minnesota. I know they
15:05
Speaker 1: didn't win or cover that game. They had every opportunity
15:07
Speaker 1: to this Jets team. We saw the team rally around
15:10
Speaker 1: like Mike White. They had those T shirts on about
15:12
Speaker 1: like whatever it was about having a real quarterback. It
15:14
Speaker 1: was something a little shade thrown at Zack Wilson. So yeah,
15:19
Speaker 1: I I love it. Chat. I just it's one of
15:22
Speaker 1: those where I leak a little bit of confidence. I
15:23
Speaker 1: know I'm going against my brethren, where it's like, I
15:26
Speaker 1: know too smart. Groups came in heavy on the Cityhawks
15:29
Speaker 1: at two and a half and went down to one.
15:32
Speaker 1: Me and a couple of guys went right back in
15:33
Speaker 1: on the Jets, went back up to two, and now
15:35
Speaker 1: it's kind of been bouncing from two to one and
15:37
Speaker 1: a half, and it's like, all right, be three or
15:39
Speaker 1: four of us against three or four of other guys,
15:41
Speaker 1: and it's just gonna be us pink ponging. This will
15:44
Speaker 1: never hit three and this will never hit a pick.
15:46
Speaker 1: I feel like it's just gonna sit right here and
15:47
Speaker 1: just bounce back and forth. So as long as it's
15:49
Speaker 1: under two and a half, I feel like we're getting
15:51
Speaker 1: a good number of the Jets. Sounds like we got
15:52
Speaker 1: a wise guy betting battle going on a little bit.
15:56
Speaker 1: I would say that the bigger ones that green Bay Vikings,
16:00
Speaker 1: Like that's like the ter family apart, Like what the
16:03
Speaker 1: fund do you know? No? No, you fucking like kind
16:05
Speaker 1: of arguments going on, Like I stay out of those.
16:07
Speaker 1: But like dudes are pissed at each other about a
16:10
Speaker 1: football game, they're like, you know, not that uh we
16:15
Speaker 1: view each other as um. I don't even put it.
16:19
Speaker 1: Put in a phrase about ship on someone, but it's
16:21
Speaker 1: like calling someone you know, going chalk. It's like you're
16:23
Speaker 1: super chalk. If you take the Vikings here, like you're
16:26
Speaker 1: taking a team that has over ten wins, that's a
16:29
Speaker 1: three and a half point underdog on the road. That
16:31
Speaker 1: should be your signal to take green Bay here. Like
16:33
Speaker 1: the bookmakers are telling you something here, and I just
16:36
Speaker 1: say the bookmakers are overacting, just like the general public
16:39
Speaker 1: is this Green Bay team. It's like, yes, do I
16:41
Speaker 1: think green Bay is gonna probably win and steal this game? Yeah?
16:44
Speaker 1: But over three and a half, No way, like they
16:47
Speaker 1: can maybe squeak this out by field goal. They're just
16:49
Speaker 1: not that good of a team, Like look at their
16:51
Speaker 1: last couple of wins, who they played, how they won
16:53
Speaker 1: those games. Their defense isn't as good as people are perceived,
16:56
Speaker 1: and I don't think the offense is as good as
16:58
Speaker 1: people perceived. And I agree with the Viking stuff. The
17:00
Speaker 1: Lakings have major flaws. Like we all know about their
17:04
Speaker 1: point differential and how much they've struggled this year and
17:07
Speaker 1: are there closer to an eight and seven team than
17:09
Speaker 1: what they are now? Yes, but I think that that
17:11
Speaker 1: says more about Kirk and this team. We're like, they
17:13
Speaker 1: just they're dead, They're left for dead and to keep
17:16
Speaker 1: fighting back every week. So you can't scare me off
17:19
Speaker 1: of it. Three and a half. If it's three half
17:20
Speaker 1: of the contest, I have to put it in. It's
17:22
Speaker 1: just a number I have to play. It feels like
17:24
Speaker 1: at this point in the year, we know exactly what
17:26
Speaker 1: all these teams are, and I know exactly what I'm
17:28
Speaker 1: getting from Minnesota. At three and a half, that's just
17:30
Speaker 1: too good a value to pass on. By the way,
17:34
Speaker 1: we always reference the luck rankings, and we'll get to
17:36
Speaker 1: this number one luck ranking differential this week Denver in
17:41
Speaker 1: Kansas City, number two Green Bay in Minnesota. So the
17:47
Speaker 1: Minnesota has been the way luckier team. Yeah, right? Uh?
17:51
Speaker 1: And and also luck differentials of sixteen or more winning
17:56
Speaker 1: it a clip this year, Uh, Denver, Green Bay, Indie,
18:04
Speaker 1: New Orleans, Cleveland, all at luck differentials of seventeen or more. Um.
18:12
Speaker 1: Interesting by the way. The next one in the list
18:15
Speaker 1: Houston Jacksonville the differentials eleven. And I do want to
18:21
Speaker 1: talk about Houston and Jacksonville. That was our Foxhole game.
18:25
Speaker 1: That plus four. The line's gone up to four and
18:27
Speaker 1: a half. Um. I still feel really good about Texas.
18:32
Speaker 1: The Texans here. Yeah. I think that was after the
18:35
Speaker 1: Doug Peterson press conference where he said he wasn't gonnaar
18:38
Speaker 1: rest starters, So maybe that's why they neverberre bumped up.
18:41
Speaker 1: But from the pros I talked to, it seems like
18:43
Speaker 1: one of those where it's like you bet Houston here,
18:45
Speaker 1: you bet nothing. Like you can't trust the Jaguars in
18:48
Speaker 1: the game. They just simply don't need And yeah, they
18:50
Speaker 1: might show out and they're they're they're professionals. I'm sure
18:53
Speaker 1: they're gonna try and they're gonna try to put up stats,
18:55
Speaker 1: but I don't know the Houston lane egg after winning
18:59
Speaker 1: a game. I get that argument as well, but I
19:01
Speaker 1: just well, he's had to end up these last couple
19:03
Speaker 1: of weeks. It's it's hard for us to predict that
19:05
Speaker 1: they have such a letdown game here where every week
19:08
Speaker 1: they've had nothing to play for technically, and they've showed
19:10
Speaker 1: up like they've had key starters not playing in these games,
19:13
Speaker 1: and they're taking these games to the wires. Like that
19:15
Speaker 1: Chiefs game. When I went back and watched it, I'm
19:18
Speaker 1: sure I had a lot to do with the scheme
19:19
Speaker 1: and Mahomes not having the best game, But he wasn't
19:23
Speaker 1: really that bad in that game, Like he was actually
19:25
Speaker 1: completing a lot of passes, just the offense was moving
19:27
Speaker 1: the ball. So well, see him against Dallas and then
19:29
Speaker 1: see him against Tennessee last week, so it seems like
19:32
Speaker 1: they kind of found something in Houston. And if this
19:34
Speaker 1: was three, I could see why you would take the Jags.
19:37
Speaker 1: But the fact that it's four and a half, now,
19:41
Speaker 1: how do we not take this if it's in the contest,
19:43
Speaker 1: That's just it's another one of those games where it's like,
19:46
Speaker 1: maybe we'll be kicking ourselves come one day. It's like,
19:48
Speaker 1: no wonder, it was such a a good number, but
19:51
Speaker 1: it feels like just an overreaction of Yes, the jo
19:55
Speaker 1: Wars are very good. They're probably gonna win this division?
19:58
Speaker 1: Are they four and a half better? And Houston a
20:00
Speaker 1: team that's had their numbers over these last couple of years,
20:02
Speaker 1: even when Houston was terrible. No, so yeah, give me,
20:06
Speaker 1: give me Houston. Yeah, we can't avoid this numbers. Yeah, yeah,
20:09
Speaker 1: I'm only I'm only disappointed that staggars on the road too,
20:13
Speaker 1: like Juars back to back on the road. Come on,
20:17
Speaker 1: what are we missing here? But like I said, I
20:20
Speaker 1: bet it on Tuesday. My only disappointment is that I
20:22
Speaker 1: took the Texans at four and not four and a half.
20:25
Speaker 1: That's when you got to bet it again, brother, Yeah,
20:28
Speaker 1: that's right. I told you that last week. I think
20:30
Speaker 1: it was like you were like, well, I bet that
20:31
Speaker 1: under in the chiefs um Seahawks game at forty nine,
20:34
Speaker 1: it's fifteen and a half. I was like, even better again,
20:38
Speaker 1: if you like it that much of forty nine, go
20:40
Speaker 1: back in again again. That will burn you sometimes that overall,
20:44
Speaker 1: I really do feel like you just take the better value,
20:48
Speaker 1: trust the instincts of Okay, the public is wrong on
20:50
Speaker 1: this one. I'm gonna keep getting a better number. And
20:53
Speaker 1: that's how it kind of goes with this one where
20:54
Speaker 1: I do think it's because Doug said no starters will rest.
20:57
Speaker 1: We saw this flip vice versa. No, we can't really
21:00
Speaker 1: talk about Maybe we'll at the end of the AMP
21:02
Speaker 1: listeners about the Cowboys Titans game that moved three points
21:06
Speaker 1: when the head coach Rabel came out, was just like, yep,
21:08
Speaker 1: resting them. Yeah, they're gnry doubtful. So ten guys, ten
21:12
Speaker 1: starters on the are listed as doubtful or they won't
21:15
Speaker 1: be playing. Um, they're treating this one like an exhibition game.
21:19
Speaker 1: Let's do that at the end, just for the ampers. Well,
21:21
Speaker 1: what I'm gonna say on that is that you could
21:23
Speaker 1: have the same thing with the Jaguars Texans, where this
21:25
Speaker 1: number could be four and a half all of a
21:27
Speaker 1: sudden Sunday morning, you see, Okay, they're gonna arrest Travis
21:30
Speaker 1: etm they're gonna they're gonna arrest A Jones, They're only
21:33
Speaker 1: gonna play um Lawrence for the first half. Whatever it is.
21:37
Speaker 1: There might be news that might make this number moves.
21:39
Speaker 1: So that's what I mean, Like, if you just want
21:40
Speaker 1: to be safe where you are with us on it,
21:42
Speaker 1: make sure you grab the four and half now, because
21:44
Speaker 1: this number good move. If teams are gonna start resting
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23:57
Speaker 1: game that's popping up a little bit in conversation. I
24:01
Speaker 1: listened to Stucky and Rabon talk about it in the
24:02
Speaker 1: Action Network Pod. I'm looking at it as the fourth
24:08
Speaker 1: biggest differential in the luck rankings. New Orleans Saints going
24:14
Speaker 1: to play the Philadelphia Eagles at six point dogs, what about?
24:19
Speaker 1: Do you think? I like the Birds, but it's it's
24:25
Speaker 1: definitely murky. We don't know who the quarterback is going
24:27
Speaker 1: to be, and they're now down a key starter on
24:30
Speaker 1: the offensive line. So I would say makes sense the pros.
24:35
Speaker 1: The pros like the Saints and they'll grab that number.
24:39
Speaker 1: I told you I thought if it was gonna be Minshew,
24:40
Speaker 1: this number be four and a half. If it's Hurts,
24:43
Speaker 1: I see it's number been seven a half, like eight
24:45
Speaker 1: and a half. I see a big movement here if
24:46
Speaker 1: it's just Hurts compared to Minshew. Um. The more I
24:51
Speaker 1: think about, the more I feel like it's a little
24:53
Speaker 1: bit of a reaction to the Saints last week catching
24:56
Speaker 1: the terrible Cleveland team and a tsunami outdoors. We've seen
25:00
Speaker 1: this Egos team at home be dominant. We've seen them
25:02
Speaker 1: totally be a different team at home against teams, especially
25:05
Speaker 1: bad teams. So I might stay away from it because
25:09
Speaker 1: maybe we're getting a bad number in the contest, right,
25:11
Speaker 1: maybe closes six and a half, and that's where the
25:13
Speaker 1: value is in the Saints, Like you should take that
25:15
Speaker 1: number against Minshee and the contest. That's fair um to me,
25:18
Speaker 1: I would just stay away from it. Where the Saints
25:20
Speaker 1: coming off a huge win on the road now on
25:23
Speaker 1: a back to back road game against an Eagles team
25:25
Speaker 1: I just lost brutally to Dallas. They're piste off this week,
25:29
Speaker 1: Like the whole week, all these guys seemed really piste off.
25:33
Speaker 1: They might take it on the Saints here, blow them out,
25:35
Speaker 1: and they know they'll get two weeks off heading into
25:37
Speaker 1: the playoffs, Like that's a big deal to them, get
25:39
Speaker 1: two weeks of rest heading into this. So um, the
25:42
Speaker 1: play for me is probably still just gonna be teased
25:44
Speaker 1: the Eagles and I'll stay away from the spread. But
25:47
Speaker 1: totally understand that guys coming on the six and a half.
25:49
Speaker 1: I know that a plenty of pros that came in
25:51
Speaker 1: on the seven with the Saints once where it came
25:53
Speaker 1: out Hurts wasn't practicing, So it feels like a number
25:55
Speaker 1: I'll be bouncing around. Maybe I'll settle in a four
25:58
Speaker 1: and a half five once we know it's Minshew. Yeah, um,
26:03
Speaker 1: I think the other things that are the factors Avante Maddox.
26:07
Speaker 1: We saw in that Cowboys game, the Eagles defense in
26:11
Speaker 1: their secondary when he wasn't playing, just wasn't as good
26:15
Speaker 1: like in any of sort of the third down scenarios.
26:20
Speaker 1: You lose that guy, and they talked about it and
26:22
Speaker 1: immediately that's where the Cowboys started attacking. Um Jordan Davis concussion. Uh.
26:30
Speaker 1: You know, against a team that likes to run the ball,
26:34
Speaker 1: they play zone. Andy Dalton decent against the zone. Like,
26:38
Speaker 1: I think there are some other factors here that are
26:40
Speaker 1: that are shaping up for them. Yeah, but it's still
26:44
Speaker 1: the Saints, man Like, they fucking suck Like that's no
26:47
Speaker 1: exaggeration if you go back and watching this year. They're
26:50
Speaker 1: a bad team with Dennis Allen, who's a bad head coach.
26:53
Speaker 1: So you're you're playing with fire if you're gonna back
26:56
Speaker 1: a Saint's team on back to back road games. Um,
26:59
Speaker 1: I think I used up all my luck last week
27:02
Speaker 1: on the Saints. I'm not going to do it again
27:03
Speaker 1: this week. All right, that's fair. Do you have a
27:07
Speaker 1: feeling on the Raiders have been really interesting? You said
27:11
Speaker 1: the Raiders? We should wait now jared'stid home is starting. Uh,
27:16
Speaker 1: it's not going to be one that we necessarily want
27:20
Speaker 1: to play unless in the contest we're seeing it still
27:23
Speaker 1: a five and a half, even six and a half.
27:25
Speaker 1: If you're in a different contest than us, I would
27:28
Speaker 1: smash this. You're Derek Carr as much ship as people
27:31
Speaker 1: want to give him, how bad he's been this year.
27:33
Speaker 1: I think they're like a top fifteen offense and their
27:36
Speaker 1: defense is thirty first. So you're taking away now a
27:40
Speaker 1: top twelve, top fifteen starter, and you're replacing him with
27:44
Speaker 1: a I mean being nice, a bottom forty five, bottom
27:48
Speaker 1: fifty quarterback. This is a nw amare scenario. If you're
27:52
Speaker 1: a Raiders fan or better, Um, they're taking I mean,
27:55
Speaker 1: this is nothing more than they're kind of throwing in
27:58
Speaker 1: the towel. They still had a chance of making the
27:59
Speaker 1: playoff if they had won this game. This is a
28:01
Speaker 1: great tune up spot for the four nineers. I think
28:03
Speaker 1: they get them here and then they get Arizona. Maybe
28:05
Speaker 1: it's next week, so the hype will be at the
28:09
Speaker 1: all time high. Chat heading into the playoffs. Niners are
28:11
Speaker 1: still fighting for a two seed. They just need the
28:14
Speaker 1: Vikings to trip up here against Green Bay. So yeah,
28:17
Speaker 1: mean Chad, if we're getting five and a half or
28:19
Speaker 1: six in the contest, this is an automatic play on
28:22
Speaker 1: the four nineers here. Uh, just the bizarre, bizarre world
28:26
Speaker 1: we're living in where the Raiders just are simply giving
28:28
Speaker 1: up with two weeks left, and it's someone that been
28:30
Speaker 1: on dere car to lead the league interceptions. I'm pissed.
28:33
Speaker 1: I hate that they're doing it, but it's all business.
28:36
Speaker 1: Like the owner, he's counting his money. This is a
28:39
Speaker 1: business decision. So Jets fans, whoever, whoever's getting their car
28:43
Speaker 1: next year, they should be a static like that is
28:49
Speaker 1: the cold solely ship. I don't know about that spot,
28:52
Speaker 1: but yeah, there's just it just feels like their car
28:54
Speaker 1: is gonna go somewhere and that that would be mutually
28:57
Speaker 1: beneficial for both teams if that's what he does. And
29:00
Speaker 1: Tom Brady really does go to Vegas, all right, like
29:02
Speaker 1: that will all make more sense. But right now I
29:04
Speaker 1: don't really get what they're doing. Uh, this Vegas team.
29:07
Speaker 1: So it's a game to me? Where mean, Chad automatic
29:10
Speaker 1: automatic play anything under seven and contest. Anyone listening to
29:13
Speaker 1: this play it, how pistor you if you're Davante Adams,
29:17
Speaker 1: if they don't end up getting someone like Tom Brady.
29:21
Speaker 1: How pist are you that Davante Adams went there to
29:24
Speaker 1: go play with his best buddy there a car and
29:26
Speaker 1: it lasted fourteen games. I said all the time, like
29:29
Speaker 1: history just never stops repeating itself. It's my favorite thing
29:33
Speaker 1: about life, Like you can fight fate. It is what
29:35
Speaker 1: it is. What team in our lifetime is worse at
29:39
Speaker 1: bringing in number one receivers. Randy Moss went to there,
29:44
Speaker 1: left for dead, everyone thought he was dead. Went to
29:46
Speaker 1: New England called twenty touchdowns, and Tonio Brown went there,
29:49
Speaker 1: leftard dead, charge his feet, went to Tampa, won a
29:53
Speaker 1: Super Bowl. Davante Adams where ever he goes next to it,
29:56
Speaker 1: I will be making a large amount of money, bending
29:58
Speaker 1: a large amount of money for them to go to
29:59
Speaker 1: the Super bowls insane. It really is bizarro world. What's
30:02
Speaker 1: going on with them? If you're in the dynasty owner, though,
30:05
Speaker 1: I'd keep holding them. If anything, I could see him
30:07
Speaker 1: getting moved because, like I said, their owner is a
30:10
Speaker 1: very very cheap man. I want to raise a suggestion
30:14
Speaker 1: for big balls better the week, And I can't remember
30:16
Speaker 1: if we talked about this on Tuesday, but I'm fairly certain.
30:20
Speaker 1: We did Denver Broncos plus twelve and a half against
30:26
Speaker 1: the Chiefs. We've talked about this a lot on this podcast.
30:31
Speaker 1: There are so many trends for teams that are overrated
30:36
Speaker 1: in November and December, overinflated because of their massive winning percentages,
30:42
Speaker 1: especially when they're playing teams that have really crappy winning percentages.
30:47
Speaker 1: I've talked about and which fits into the Broncos and
30:53
Speaker 1: the Chiefs, the teams that are the underdogs since two
30:57
Speaker 1: thousand and six, team covering it north of a clip
31:01
Speaker 1: of the money coming in on the Broncos, the tickets
31:04
Speaker 1: coming in on the Chiefs. We've got a classic pros
31:06
Speaker 1: Joe's here. I don't know, man, how do we ignored it?
31:10
Speaker 1: I mean, I think it's a good pro play. It's
31:12
Speaker 1: the same reason I'm betting the Titans tonight. Am I
31:14
Speaker 1: giving out? And am I giving out the Titans? To
31:16
Speaker 1: anyone listening to this show? Hell no, that's truly a
31:19
Speaker 1: pro bet. You're just simply playing the numbers of big
31:22
Speaker 1: dogs in December. Yeah, Chack, You're exactly right. That's the
31:26
Speaker 1: smart play. It's just I just do not like it.
31:29
Speaker 1: I just don't like the mojo of it. I feel
31:31
Speaker 1: like the team is quit completely on Russell Wilson. The
31:36
Speaker 1: only reason I play is because they fired that coach,
31:38
Speaker 1: and maybe they all hated that head coach that much.
31:39
Speaker 1: But I thought the big balls best how you're gonna
31:42
Speaker 1: go with is what you brought up on Tuesday of
31:43
Speaker 1: a game I really didn't like. But I feel like
31:45
Speaker 1: you're talking about it and it's the right side. I
31:47
Speaker 1: know a couple of pros that love it. The Bucks
31:49
Speaker 1: at home catching minus three, minus two and a half,
31:53
Speaker 1: that takes balls to me, Like Panthers look good. They
31:57
Speaker 1: look like the best team that division. They just had
31:59
Speaker 1: a huge win at home. No one's been Tampa like
32:02
Speaker 1: I talked to. I don't know fifteen pros in the
32:06
Speaker 1: last twenty four hours. I know one other group chat
32:09
Speaker 1: one other group that is placed a single wager on Tampa.
32:13
Speaker 1: So this would truly be an Island play if we
32:15
Speaker 1: bet this number. Um. Every pro I talked to, for
32:18
Speaker 1: the most part, they like the three. They liked them
32:20
Speaker 1: in teasers Carolina, which I think is a good play
32:22
Speaker 1: to teaser tease Carolina. That's a fair tease right there,
32:25
Speaker 1: taking them up to nine nine and a half. Because
32:28
Speaker 1: Tampa is not gonna blow them out. I don't think
32:30
Speaker 1: that's gonna happen. But covering this three, covering two and
32:32
Speaker 1: a half, I just feel like they are like this
32:34
Speaker 1: is a good number. Three and a half. Minus three
32:37
Speaker 1: a half I wouldn't do in the contest, but minus
32:38
Speaker 1: two and a half, Tom Brady at home, I feel
32:41
Speaker 1: like that's a good number. Like they win these ugly
32:43
Speaker 1: close games by three. That's what Tampa has been this year.
32:47
Speaker 1: I don't know. It feels like the same thing with
32:50
Speaker 1: us back in Carolina last week. It felt like we
32:52
Speaker 1: were on island when we did it, and it's the
32:53
Speaker 1: same thing with the Bucks this week. It's the Seesaw Playoff.
32:56
Speaker 1: We're riding the highs and lows of both these teams.
32:59
Speaker 1: This is the most point of buying the Tampa camp,
33:02
Speaker 1: but this is the lowest time all year we've bought them.
33:05
Speaker 1: Doesn't get any lower. So if we're talking big balls, Chad,
33:09
Speaker 1: this feels like this is gonna be a big balls
33:11
Speaker 1: bet this Tampa team. Do you think betton Tampa is
33:16
Speaker 1: a bigger balls than betting the Broncos again, because Broncos,
33:22
Speaker 1: that's that's a by the book plays play. I see it. Okay,
33:26
Speaker 1: I feel like that's a play. I'm I am betting.
33:28
Speaker 1: I'm right there with you. That was the same reason
33:30
Speaker 1: I like the Seahawks. I like the Chiefs. Last week again,
33:32
Speaker 1: Seahawks was those nine and a half. Like, once you
33:35
Speaker 1: hit that double digit, that's always, like Chad's talk kind
33:38
Speaker 1: of talking about it, that's always gonna make me slant
33:40
Speaker 1: towards that dog because historically this late in the year,
33:42
Speaker 1: a team with the highest high win percentage they have
33:45
Speaker 1: as the Chiefs playing a team as a dogship when
33:48
Speaker 1: percentage like the Denver Broncoes, we take that number. Like
33:52
Speaker 1: the divisional game too, we usually backed that number. It's just,
33:55
Speaker 1: oh man, I don't know if I could. I don't
33:58
Speaker 1: know if I could force into the contest teen and
34:00
Speaker 1: a half. I could be talking, but it's moved down
34:02
Speaker 1: at twelve and a half. Yeah. I just much rather,
34:06
Speaker 1: obviously have a thirteen and a half. And that's why
34:08
Speaker 1: I don't want to make our big balls. I just
34:09
Speaker 1: don't want to make the fans of the show better
34:11
Speaker 1: than a ship number. All right, then let's go with
34:13
Speaker 1: the Bucks at minus three perfect big balls better the
34:18
Speaker 1: week Tampa Bay Boxing Buccaneers minus three. Just to recap
34:26
Speaker 1: for people right now, games we are eyeballing for Sunday
34:30
Speaker 1: as we narrow it down to the final five Texans
34:33
Speaker 1: plus four, maybe plus four and a half Jets, possibly
34:37
Speaker 1: if we can get them below two, that'd be nice.
34:40
Speaker 1: Potentially we're talking about the Bills, maybe the Bucks minus three.
34:45
Speaker 1: I want to throw a couple more games out at
34:47
Speaker 1: you based on the Luck ranking because we talked about
34:50
Speaker 1: him a lot on this show. We just talked about Denver,
34:52
Speaker 1: we talked about Green Bay, Minnesota, Indianapolis and the Giants.
34:59
Speaker 1: I know, I told you one scares me there, like
35:00
Speaker 1: I bet I bet the Giants when it was four
35:03
Speaker 1: and a half, five and a half and five, and
35:06
Speaker 1: I'd still take him at six. I told you, I'm
35:07
Speaker 1: just worried the Colts have quit. Like that's the fear
35:11
Speaker 1: at this end of the year. Where we talked about
35:14
Speaker 1: all last year where I would say I shouldn't say
35:16
Speaker 1: a last year was the final three weeks. I know,
35:18
Speaker 1: a really smart group that just kept taking the Giants
35:21
Speaker 1: because the Giants were getting two or three extra points
35:23
Speaker 1: per week then they should have been, and that was
35:26
Speaker 1: because they had quit. They didn't cover any of those games,
35:28
Speaker 1: they just were bad. They'd simply had given up on
35:30
Speaker 1: their head coach. Last year, Man did then I look
35:33
Speaker 1: like a team that gave up on the red coach.
35:34
Speaker 1: I mean, you literally just got embarrassed, had the biggest
35:37
Speaker 1: comeback ever, and you come out and Nick Foles laid
35:40
Speaker 1: a total egg and this team laid an egg like that.
35:41
Speaker 1: At least the defense get played kind of hard against
35:43
Speaker 1: the Chargers, but that offense with Nick Foles, Man does
35:48
Speaker 1: not does not look like a team I want to
35:49
Speaker 1: put any type of money on. So I'm happy with
35:51
Speaker 1: my position on the Giants. Um another game where if
35:54
Speaker 1: you're scared of the spread, throwing at a teaser could
35:57
Speaker 1: goold week. I really do. I get all teasers because
35:59
Speaker 1: it's not that you're betting like a coward, but a
36:01
Speaker 1: little bit you're you're you're kind of throwing two games
36:03
Speaker 1: together inside of just bedding it straight. But like these
36:06
Speaker 1: the books get so sharp in the year like this,
36:09
Speaker 1: I like to just take teasers where it's kind of
36:10
Speaker 1: thrown that out where me and Chad talked about the
36:13
Speaker 1: Thunderdogs have not been winning out right like they've been covering,
36:16
Speaker 1: but this has been the worst run historically since Week
36:19
Speaker 1: eleven of underdogs winning out right, uh, since bet Labs
36:22
Speaker 1: has been tracking the data. So um, another one of
36:25
Speaker 1: these games where if you didn't get the good number
36:28
Speaker 1: on the Giants, just throwing in a teaser if you're
36:30
Speaker 1: scared off by the six But I just I like
36:33
Speaker 1: the Giants here and normally, yeah, Chad, if this was
36:36
Speaker 1: like we always joked about because early in the year,
36:38
Speaker 1: no brainer, take the Cults here. But this Colds team
36:41
Speaker 1: seems like a team that's given up. And Nick Foles
36:43
Speaker 1: looks at a quarterback that's been sitting on a team's
36:46
Speaker 1: bench for a year and a half, barely practicing. Just
36:49
Speaker 1: not a good combo, all right, Matt Mitchell is reminding
36:51
Speaker 1: me um. I mentioned specifically the luck rankings of sixteen
36:55
Speaker 1: differential of sixteen or more, so um this year teams
37:03
Speaker 1: in those scenarios, the underdogs are the unluckyer team is
37:10
Speaker 1: uh covering at a sixty two and a half percent
37:13
Speaker 1: clip the sixteen plus differentials this week Denver, Kansas City,
37:19
Speaker 1: Green Bay in Minnesota, Indian New York in this order,
37:23
Speaker 1: New Orleans and Philly, Cleveland and Washington. God damn it.
37:29
Speaker 1: So I'm gonna going against like three of those. You're
37:31
Speaker 1: against Green Bay, you're against Indie, you're against New Orleans. Yeah,
37:35
Speaker 1: that's not ideal, because these luck rankings are really interesting.
37:39
Speaker 1: Like it's been interesting to me your response to this.
37:45
Speaker 1: You're a professional better. There's a lot of sort of
37:48
Speaker 1: advanced metrics that you think are pretty gimmicky, but you've
37:51
Speaker 1: I feel like you've liked the luck rankings as a
37:54
Speaker 1: barter of success in how it's and the effort that
37:58
Speaker 1: is put into it. Yeah, because I think a lot
38:03
Speaker 1: of gambling comes down to luck and things bouncing your way.
38:07
Speaker 1: I mean, just last week, me and Chad went from
38:09
Speaker 1: a three and two week to a two and three
38:10
Speaker 1: week because the guy missed an extra point. I mean,
38:13
Speaker 1: it's that slim of a margin to cover these numbers
38:16
Speaker 1: where you're talking about luck and good luck and bad luck.
38:19
Speaker 1: I mean even that Patriots Super Bowl dynasty they had there,
38:24
Speaker 1: they had a lot of really good luck, but they
38:26
Speaker 1: also had crazy bad luck. I mean, Eli Manning, not
38:30
Speaker 1: that great of a quarterback, beat them twice. Nick Foles,
38:33
Speaker 1: we just watched him play. People don't get it, but
38:36
Speaker 1: it's just one of those things where it's like luck, luck,
38:39
Speaker 1: does steer a lot of things. So the reason I
38:41
Speaker 1: like the rankings so much is because it does shed
38:44
Speaker 1: light on certain teams. That's like, this team is incredibly lucky,
38:47
Speaker 1: Like they've been incredibly lucky this year. I kind of
38:50
Speaker 1: gotten to the point though, at this point of the
38:52
Speaker 1: season where I've used it the other way with the Vikings,
38:55
Speaker 1: Like we all know how very, very lucky this Vikings
38:58
Speaker 1: team is. It's kind of who they are. It was
39:01
Speaker 1: the same thing last year with that Bengals team. Like
39:04
Speaker 1: I remember the Bengals team. Every week I had to
39:06
Speaker 1: hear about their d v o A. They were like
39:07
Speaker 1: the eighteen team d v o A. Overall, they were
39:10
Speaker 1: like the nineteenth defense and the seventeen through offense. Do
39:14
Speaker 1: you d v o A? What d v o A
39:16
Speaker 1: couldn't factor into That is what we're talking about here,
39:18
Speaker 1: the luck ranking, and that Bengals team last year was
39:21
Speaker 1: very lucky, and they were lucky all season, and we
39:24
Speaker 1: saw that plan the I mean their kicker, he was
39:27
Speaker 1: automatic last year in the plaoff Now he can't hit
39:28
Speaker 1: a kick. That's kind of how it goes from year
39:30
Speaker 1: to year with their certain luck for certain teams. So
39:33
Speaker 1: that's what I mean in Minnesota. UM, that's the only
39:35
Speaker 1: team I could care less about the luck ranking. With
39:37
Speaker 1: every other team, I think that doesn't matter. Like the Eagles,
39:40
Speaker 1: no doubt, have been way luckier than the Saints. UM Colts,
39:45
Speaker 1: no doubt they've been an unlucky team. They also suck.
39:49
Speaker 1: So it's kind of hard for me at this point
39:50
Speaker 1: of the the year be like, yeah, they've been unlucky, but
39:53
Speaker 1: that was unlucky with Matt Ryan. They've downgraded from Matt Ryan.
39:56
Speaker 1: I know how that was possible, but they have to
39:58
Speaker 1: Nick Foles. H Um. They're just certain things where I
40:02
Speaker 1: do believe in luck ranking, but it's all about Pacific
40:05
Speaker 1: teams and what their scenario is. So UM, I do
40:07
Speaker 1: agree with that that it's a useful tool, and I've
40:10
Speaker 1: used it all year. I'm not gonna lie like I
40:12
Speaker 1: always check it, especially on Sunday morning after I made
40:15
Speaker 1: my bets. I just like to know that I'm lined
40:17
Speaker 1: up right with certain teams where if I'm taking underdog,
40:20
Speaker 1: especially at home dog, it makes me feel way better
40:23
Speaker 1: when the publics all over the road favorite and I'm
40:26
Speaker 1: getting really good luck ranking where it's like that home Dog,
40:29
Speaker 1: they've been super unlucky, that road team that's the favorite,
40:32
Speaker 1: very lucky. It's been very profitable from this year. Like
40:35
Speaker 1: it's not the end all be all, but those are
40:36
Speaker 1: a couple of things that I look for to match
40:38
Speaker 1: up with when I'm making bets. Uh the other game,
40:43
Speaker 1: do we have a feeling on Cleveland Washington? Washington is
40:46
Speaker 1: short home favorite. This is the only other game we
40:48
Speaker 1: haven't talked about that is sixteen or more. Yeah, I
40:52
Speaker 1: don't know. I don't have a strong opinion on this.
40:55
Speaker 1: I think the running joke is like the leagues against Washington,
40:57
Speaker 1: so they're gonna fix this for the Browns, which I
40:59
Speaker 1: don't know. I think the league hates both these teams
41:01
Speaker 1: right now. I would take Washington because of there the better,
41:07
Speaker 1: better team, but I don't know. They just they're they're
41:10
Speaker 1: in a tailspin right now, Like I know Carson is
41:13
Speaker 1: the starter, and I just don't really know what to
41:16
Speaker 1: do with this one. Brother. So to me, this is
41:18
Speaker 1: one of those games where I'll just end up either
41:20
Speaker 1: taking Washington or pass and I just I just went
41:22
Speaker 1: back Watson. He just hasn't looked right since coming back
41:25
Speaker 1: off that long layoff, so um bros. I could see
41:30
Speaker 1: them coming in on Washington. Uh, Washington this day is
41:33
Speaker 1: under three, but as soon as it touched three, I'd
41:35
Speaker 1: probably bet the Browns. Like there are two bad teams,
41:38
Speaker 1: I'll take the plus three with whatever the worst the
41:40
Speaker 1: worst team is. But um Man just just one of
41:44
Speaker 1: those that that's wun't gonna make my top fifteen and
41:46
Speaker 1: bet and it's probably the last game I bet. What
41:48
Speaker 1: about the last one on the board. Uh, And this
41:51
Speaker 1: is the other one is Houston Jacksonville, which we've discussed,
41:55
Speaker 1: Chicago and Detroit. Um Bears are about six wenk Dogs
42:01
Speaker 1: Lions need to win. A lot of evidence and stats
42:05
Speaker 1: and again I'll reference Raybund and Stucky in inn Action
42:07
Speaker 1: Network pod. We've talked about late season over inflation. We
42:12
Speaker 1: just talked about it with Kansas City. Stuckey had a
42:15
Speaker 1: really interesting stat. You narrow it down even further and
42:18
Speaker 1: talk about teams that are eliminated versus teams that have
42:21
Speaker 1: a chance to get in. The inflation is just as great.
42:25
Speaker 1: And that's this. That's the scenario with Detroit and Chicago,
42:28
Speaker 1: which I talk all the time. That next week, plead,
42:32
Speaker 1: for the love of God, don't just blindly better team
42:34
Speaker 1: because they need a game against a team that does
42:36
Speaker 1: not need the game. I mean, some of these guys
42:38
Speaker 1: love playing spoilers. It's the two only two teams right
42:41
Speaker 1: now that I believe have quit, and that could be
42:44
Speaker 1: changed this week where if Dever shows up against the Chiefs,
42:46
Speaker 1: that might have been just about their head coach. But
42:49
Speaker 1: Denver and the Colts, those are two teams I've think
42:51
Speaker 1: quit and now the Raiders can be added to that list. Um,
42:54
Speaker 1: that's something to be aware of with certain teams heading
42:57
Speaker 1: these last two weeks. The Bears have not it. I
43:00
Speaker 1: mean that was just I don't know, I'm not bad
43:02
Speaker 1: luck lass game, but they were in it. I mean
43:04
Speaker 1: it was ten to eight, they complete late an egg
43:07
Speaker 1: in the second half. I got blown out by the Bills.
43:09
Speaker 1: I don't know, chat I probably I don't know what
43:11
Speaker 1: to do with this one because I want to take
43:12
Speaker 1: the Bears. The fear here is the Troy gets right
43:16
Speaker 1: against that defense and they just poured on. You got
43:19
Speaker 1: golf indoors. His outside weapons are healthy. We've seen the connection.
43:24
Speaker 1: I look at this game where it's like I'm sure
43:26
Speaker 1: stuck here. One of those guys is on the six.
43:28
Speaker 1: I just I just don't have the confidence betting it.
43:30
Speaker 1: But that does feel like the right side where that's
43:32
Speaker 1: an inflated line, like you just said, probably should before
43:34
Speaker 1: and a half, just up to six now because most
43:36
Speaker 1: people are visioning this Bears team is quitting on the season.
43:39
Speaker 1: One other game that Matt Mitchell just picked us about
43:42
Speaker 1: early in the week, we talked about Miami at plus
43:45
Speaker 1: three if it got there. Any strong feelings on that game.
43:50
Speaker 1: That line is currently at plus three. Chat, we don't
43:53
Speaker 1: have a choice. Another game, we have a choice. We
43:55
Speaker 1: bet Teddy. Teddy covers as a dog. We just bet them.
43:58
Speaker 1: We take the plus there. I don't know. It's a
44:02
Speaker 1: tough one because Miami is just the better team they got.
44:05
Speaker 1: They got the better skill players. It's crazy to say,
44:08
Speaker 1: but they seem like they have the better coaching this
44:10
Speaker 1: season all around. I'll take the three with Teddy. If
44:13
Speaker 1: it's three and a half in our contest, yes, we
44:15
Speaker 1: blindly take it. If it's two and a half, I
44:17
Speaker 1: just I probably passed on that one. Yeah, three and
44:22
Speaker 1: a half Miami Divisional game with Teddy. Teddy loves to
44:26
Speaker 1: be a dog and he loves to cover. So it's
44:28
Speaker 1: a game where if you if you're like us, you
44:30
Speaker 1: just love betting these ugly dogs. Ugly dog that we
44:33
Speaker 1: will be betting Miami. Last question this is from the
44:37
Speaker 1: user I think it was in the AMP chat last
44:40
Speaker 1: year we talked about Mike Vrabel as Coach of the Year.
44:43
Speaker 1: Simon crushed Coach of the Year last year with Vrabel.
44:46
Speaker 1: Do you have any other picks for award winners this
44:49
Speaker 1: late in the season. That was like a freak scenario though.
44:53
Speaker 1: We had the number one seed at plus three fifty
44:57
Speaker 1: to win Coach of the Year and Vrabel and that
45:01
Speaker 1: was the classic what have you done for me lately?
45:04
Speaker 1: Bet where the Bengals had basically upset the Chiefs at home,
45:08
Speaker 1: so everyone poured in money on the Bengals head coach
45:10
Speaker 1: to be Coach of the Year, and we got crazy
45:12
Speaker 1: value on the number one seed in the Titans, where
45:14
Speaker 1: I was just like, these writers aren't idiots. They're gonna
45:17
Speaker 1: know that the Titans had a bunch of injuries and
45:18
Speaker 1: they still somehow became the one seed and that really
45:21
Speaker 1: tough a f C. So this year, like my the
45:25
Speaker 1: team I would put for Coach of the Year. I
45:28
Speaker 1: know he's not gonna win it, but it's gotta be Shanahan,
45:31
Speaker 1: like Trey Lance went down and what was that week
45:35
Speaker 1: two or three? He somehow navigated that whole Jimmy G.
45:38
Speaker 1: Situation of bringing in a guy to replace him still
45:42
Speaker 1: got him to resign, and then he goes down. He's
45:45
Speaker 1: running Rock Pretty and they've only been better. So yeah,
45:49
Speaker 1: if I was going to say best value and who
45:51
Speaker 1: I think should win it this year, and they're gonna
45:53
Speaker 1: win their last two games, that's kind of a given.
45:56
Speaker 1: They're gonna fish the two seed. I don't like that
45:59
Speaker 1: value in Shanahan. So if people want to know what
46:01
Speaker 1: I've sent out the clients when I've been myself, I
46:03
Speaker 1: like the Shanahan line of it where he has turned
46:07
Speaker 1: a team that is very talented, has a ton of
46:09
Speaker 1: talent on it, but they've been shown up and doing
46:12
Speaker 1: it every week. And that Pretty stuff is crazy, Like
46:14
Speaker 1: he's completely not not I'm not even want to say,
46:19
Speaker 1: because the offense was already good with Jimmy G. But
46:22
Speaker 1: Jimmy G wasn't using all the weapons. Like the whole
46:24
Speaker 1: thing of kid Will not getting the touches was very
46:26
Speaker 1: weird to me. Pretty is using kittle at a crazy rate,
46:29
Speaker 1: Like he's really using that weapon and that's been really
46:32
Speaker 1: good for him. So they know they got it all
46:34
Speaker 1: going on there for the four nineers, and if they
46:36
Speaker 1: win these last two games, get the two seed. I
46:39
Speaker 1: get where people are coming from the Sirianni angle or
46:42
Speaker 1: um you know any an, these other coaches they want
46:45
Speaker 1: to bet. But to me, the best value right now, yeah,
46:47
Speaker 1: it would be Shanahan. All right, Uh Foxol Texans plus four.
46:54
Speaker 1: It's now a four and a half if you can
46:56
Speaker 1: get it a four and a half. Great, Simon says,
46:58
Speaker 1: Vikings plus three and a half. A couple of the
47:01
Speaker 1: forward every book, now cha, that's how good our show is. Seriously,
47:04
Speaker 1: that's amazing. Simon says, Vikings plus three and a half.
47:10
Speaker 1: That was the other day. He said it on the
47:11
Speaker 1: other day. Because the Simon says, idea is bet it
47:15
Speaker 1: when he says it, because that line is going to move.
47:16
Speaker 1: It's now a three exact decision I bills minus one
47:19
Speaker 1: and a half. The wise guys are with me. That
47:21
Speaker 1: number is actually at one right now. So good luck.
47:24
Speaker 1: There are big balls. Bet of the week. I can't
47:25
Speaker 1: believe we're doing it. Temp big bucks and years minus
47:28
Speaker 1: three against the Panthers. Time for some Scooch Roulette. When
47:32
Speaker 1: all hope is lost, all that's left is relief. Well,
47:37
Speaker 1: let's play Scoots Roulette. I got mine. I'm so excited
47:44
Speaker 1: about it. Really, I'm touring because I have three different ones,
47:48
Speaker 1: Like I bet all the same amount on they're all
47:50
Speaker 1: pretty even. Who who just needs it? Who's the most desperate? Fuck?
47:59
Speaker 1: I hate going with the Jets. Give me Jets minus too,
48:02
Speaker 1: whatever it is. I think the Jets minus one and
48:05
Speaker 1: a half. Right now, Jet Milman has decided he's going
48:09
Speaker 1: with the Broncos plus twelve and a half. Yeah, I
48:13
Speaker 1: just it. It makes too much sense. It's weird to
48:17
Speaker 1: me that it's not more of a no brainer for us.
48:22
Speaker 1: That's fair, Broncos plus twelve. I'm not even nervous about it, Bronco.
48:25
Speaker 1: It's almost like when when when we were going with
48:27
Speaker 1: the Broncos against the Chiefs a few weeks ago and
48:30
Speaker 1: they were down nothing. Never got nervous, never nervous moment.
48:34
Speaker 1: That's what they call me. Dog your dog, your dog
48:40
Speaker 1: blocks dog, money line run Robin Saints. Yeah, I don't
48:47
Speaker 1: mind that. Throw the Saints and even though I would
48:50
Speaker 1: truly be shocked if they went back to back throwing
48:53
Speaker 1: the Texans. Those are our guys. Give me a Minnesota,
48:59
Speaker 1: Minnesota Kings. I mean, there's a couple here I like,
49:03
Speaker 1: um like Carolina, even though I'm all over Tampa here,
49:08
Speaker 1: I just feel like Carolina playing for the division here.
49:12
Speaker 1: That's a that's a fair price plus money line. How
49:16
Speaker 1: about the Colts. Do you think they're gonna they're gonna
49:19
Speaker 1: beat the Giants outright? I could so see the Giants
49:23
Speaker 1: just choking on it. I'll throw that in for you,
49:27
Speaker 1: or I would do the Cults. Are the Bears. I'd
49:30
Speaker 1: rather do Bears much Bears. Let's do they at least
49:32
Speaker 1: have a pulse called justin Fields bear down Chicago Bears.
49:40
Speaker 1: I love all the teams in here. I love the Bears. Obviously.
49:42
Speaker 1: I'm a huge Texans fan generally because I've always had
49:46
Speaker 1: infinity for them. When they were first launching, I went
49:50
Speaker 1: down to Houston and spent many many weeks with the
49:54
Speaker 1: Texans as they were sort of going through the first
49:56
Speaker 1: training camp, the first game. I was there when they
49:58
Speaker 1: beat the Cowboys. When we were with the Texas. That's everything, right,
50:02
Speaker 1: So money Lion round Robin. We did before we sign
50:06
Speaker 1: off earlier, we asked our live listeners on Ampa question
50:10
Speaker 1: who is the worst QB You've ever been on? We
50:14
Speaker 1: got a ton of responses. There were no wrong answers.
50:17
Speaker 1: It was a who's who of shitty quarterbacks. We have
50:20
Speaker 1: to select some finalists are murderers row of horrendous qbs.
50:24
Speaker 1: Tibet First, Matt Mitchell, what inspired this question from you?
50:29
Speaker 1: In the last game of the season versus the Jets,
50:32
Speaker 1: the Bill started the third string quarterback. He went ten
50:36
Speaker 1: for twenty three for a hundred and six yards. He
50:39
Speaker 1: threw three interceptions, He was sacked three times, and he
50:42
Speaker 1: lost a fumble. He threw it. He threw a ten
50:45
Speaker 1: yard out into the stands. The Bills would lose to
50:49
Speaker 1: the very old and washed up Mark Brunel and the
50:52
Speaker 1: Jets thirty eight to seven. And that Buffalo quarterback's name
50:56
Speaker 1: was Brian Brohm, who was serving as produced interim head coach.
51:01
Speaker 1: This week in the Citrus Ball, here we go, mattis
51:05
Speaker 1: sending me the five finalists, Tim Rite, Christian Ponder, Jonathan Quinn, Kendall,
51:13
Speaker 1: Hinton Spurgeon, Win, the guy whose name makes you laugh
51:18
Speaker 1: every time as if you were a fourth grade boy. Simon,
51:22
Speaker 1: you go first, Well, my Number one was gonna be
51:24
Speaker 1: Nathan Peterman. I mean, I feel like that was the
51:25
Speaker 1: most legendary thing ever be came in and through six
51:28
Speaker 1: or seven picks, like that was legendary. I'd put him
51:32
Speaker 1: from my number one. Yeah, it's hard to beat Nathan Peterman,
51:35
Speaker 1: but that was like historical. Yeah, from this list i'd
51:39
Speaker 1: probably have I wouldn't choose Kendall Hinton because it was
51:42
Speaker 1: the easiest one you could possibly have. I'd probably go
51:45
Speaker 1: with Christian Ponder. Yeah, it's fair. He got such a
51:48
Speaker 1: cool wife. I really feel like that got one. Oh dude,
51:51
Speaker 1: he's totally winning life. First round pick made a ton
51:54
Speaker 1: of money. Florida state guy, but she seems she seems
51:58
Speaker 1: perfectly wonderful. The guy's winning, but not a guy you
52:03
Speaker 1: want to bet on. That's true. Ka Dub, you are
52:06
Speaker 1: the winner. Please email podcasts at Action network dot com
52:12
Speaker 1: for your prize. This has been the favorite podcast from
52:14
Speaker 1: the Volume podcast Network. I am Chad Noelman. He is
52:17
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52:27
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