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Angie Nixon Won. Now What? · Vibes Only

0:00
BRIAN: I'm Brian Derrick.
0:00
GLENNIS: And I'm Glennis Meagher.
0:02
BRIAN: Welcome back to Vibes Only.
0:03
GLENNIS: This week, primary results are in in Florida, Wyoming, and Alaska, where Republicans have a Dan Sullivan problem of The Parent Trap variety.
0:12
BRIAN: And we have a TLDR deep dive on the midterms so that you know exactly what the stakes are and what is up in November.
0:20
GLENNIS: And we're introducing a new segment called Comment Crossfire, where we shout out and respond to comments we've been getting since last week's episode.
0:28
BRIAN: A few of our clickbait or double clicks for the week, Jon Ossoff naming names about Trump's side piece, Natalie Harp.
0:35
BRIAN: Mayor Mamdani triggering, of course, another MAGA meltdown.
0:39
BRIAN: Trump's work on the White House costing taxpayers more than $900 million.
0:44
GLENNIS: Let's get into it.
0:45
BRIAN: Good morning, Glennis.
0:46
GLENNIS: Good morning, Brian.
0:48
GLENNIS: How are you?
0:49
BRIAN: I'm doing great.
0:50
BRIAN: Post primaries, we got lots to talk about.
0:54
GLENNIS: I know.
0:54
GLENNIS: I know.
0:55
GLENNIS: I was just doing a little peruse this morning, and we had some surprises.
0:59
BRIAN: Yeah, we did.
1:00
BRIAN: We'll definitely get into that.
1:01
BRIAN: Kind of pleasantly enjoying the lack of congressional news because both the Senate and House are on recess.
1:08
BRIAN: It's, like, a little bit calmer.
1:10
BRIAN: Tiny bit.
1:10
GLENNIS: No, it's a slow news week, but there's still plenty to talk about.
1:14
BRIAN: Yeah, let's talk midterms.
1:15
GLENNIS: Let's do it.
1:17
BRIAN: We had primaries in Florida, Wyoming, and Alaska.
1:21
BRIAN: I think I said this before, but one of the last remaining primary dates that we really care about, they go into September.
1:28
BRIAN: There aren't that many races in Rhode Island that people are really watching closely.
1:32
GLENNIS: Okay.
1:32
BRIAN: So yeah, the biggest race and biggest surprise of the night was the primary on the Democratic side for US Senate in Florida.
1:40
BRIAN: Were you shook?
1:41
GLENNIS: I was shook.
1:42
GLENNIS: And then this morning, I lifted the hood on the fundraising numbers, and I was even more shooketh.
1:47
GLENNIS: Yeah.
1:47
GLENNIS: That Angie Nixon won in Florida.
1:51
GLENNIS: She beat some white dude.
1:52
GLENNIS: What was his name?
1:53
BRIAN: Alexander Vindman- Okay … who was a witness in Trump's first impeachment with Ukraine.
1:58
BRIAN: He was, like- Yeah the star witness of Trump's first impeachment trial.
2:03
GLENNIS: He raised 16 million.
2:05
GLENNIS: She raised not even a million- Not even a million … and only spent $60,000 on ads, period.
2:13
GLENNIS: This was really exciting to me because, one, she had a very strong digital game, but an even stronger ground game.
2:20
BRIAN: Right.
2:20
BRIAN: The world is shocked this morning.
2:22
BRIAN: Every headline is starting off with this race because it was so surprising.
2:25
BRIAN: I'm gonna say, if I was a Kalshi prediction markets person, I would've been putting money on Angie because the signs of an upset were there.
2:37
GLENNIS: Okay.
2:37
BRIAN: Vindman totally phoned it in What have you seen from him literally at all all year?
2:44
BRIAN: Nothing.
2:44
BRIAN: No one knows that he's even running for office, whereas she is everywhere.
2:48
BRIAN: And she's not just everywhere, she's everywhere the necessity of the moment dictates that she should be.
2:55
BRIAN: So by that I mean when they opened Alligator Alcatraz, boom, there's Angie Nixon literally trying to tear that shit down.
3:02
GLENNIS: Good.
3:02
BRIAN: Florida tried to pass a racial gerrymander.
3:06
BRIAN: Boom, there's Angie Nixon on the floor of the State House with a megaphone saying,"Stop, stop, stop, stop, stop." Pairing that ground game, her presence as a state legislator in the state with this insane creator-based online presence-
3:21
GLENNIS: Yeah
3:21
… BRIAN: where you have all of these content creators hyping her up all over the country, I think that that's what the sort of establishment and conventional thinking missed.
3:29
GLENNIS: Good.
3:29
GLENNIS: She's showing up for the people of Florida against these, like, horrible things that are happening, like Alligator Alcatraz, et cetera.
3:34
GLENNIS: That's what you wanna see your elected officials do.
3:36
GLENNIS: Let's go.
3:37
GLENNIS: What are her chances?
3:38
BRIAN: The conventional thinking here is bad.
3:40
GLENNIS: Mm-hmm.
3:41
BRIAN: So the prognosticators, Sabato was the first to move, actually moved the race as safely Republican after she won.
3:50
GLENNIS: I'm sorry, sounds like a foreign language.
3:51
GLENNIS: Who's Sabato?
3:52
BRIAN: Sabato, Crystal Ball is, like, one of the major prognosticators.
3:56
BRIAN: They're the ones who decide whether a race is toss-up, lean Republican, likely Democratic, whatever that is.
4:02
BRIAN: It's Cook- Okay … Sabato, Inside Elections, 270toWin.
4:05
BRIAN: There's, there's a couple of them.
4:06
BRIAN: Mm-hmm.
4:06
BRIAN: Oath does our own ratings.
4:07
BRIAN: We have not moved it to safe.
4:10
BRIAN: Just according to the data, we'll likely see it as a harder road for Democrats in Florida-
4:18
GLENNIS: Mm… BRIAN: with, around the general.
4:19
GLENNIS: That is, like, the conventional wisdom, and this goes back to what we've been saying about the midterms for several months now, which is this is the left's ultimate test, right?
4:31
GLENNIS: Mm-hmm.
4:31
BRIAN: Winning primaries really doesn't mean anything unless you win general elections.
4:37
GLENNIS: Yeah.
4:38
BRIAN: Otherwise, it's a lot of noise.
4:39
BRIAN: They have to prove that the theory, because it is in fact theoretical-
4:45
GLENNIS: Yeah
4:45
… BRIAN: that they can build this coalition and win over both Trump voters and non-voters with a populist message actually can come to pass.
4:54
… BRIAN: We can talk about what that impact on 2028 should be, but in terms of 2026, it means that she needs to, again, pull off an upset.
5:02
… BRIAN: Not impossible, right?
5:04
… BRIAN: Not impossible.
5:04
… BRIAN: The data has been wrong for lots of-
5:06
GLENNIS: Yeah
5:06
… BRIAN: the primary election season, but it, in fact, is going to be a gigantic upset because Ashley Moody, the Republican, will be heavily favored going into November.
5:15
GLENNIS: Mm.
5:15
GLENNIS: I also wanna note, she is DSA, but DSA did not endorse her.
5:20
BRIAN: Is that right?
5:20
BRIAN: I admit I-
5:21
GLENNIS: That is right… BRIAN: needed to dive in.
5:22
GLENNIS: New York Times-
5:22
BRIAN: Why?
5:23
GLENNIS: No idea.
5:24
GLENNIS: I was reading the New York Times this morning, and this was an article published this morning on their takeaways from the midterms.
5:29
GLENNIS: Based on that interview that we'll talk about later on the pod,'cause my comments section was blowing up, I would be surprised if DSA even had it on their radar.
5:37
GLENNIS: They seem so disorganized-
5:39
BRIAN: Yeah… GLENNIS: that I don't know infrastructure organized fast enough.
5:44
BRIAN: She only declared that she was DSA in June.
5:46
BRIAN: Okay.
5:47
GLENNIS: Yeah.
5:47
GLENNIS: But I was like, "Okay, clock it."
5:49
BRIAN: I mean, I'm sure they'll endorse her for the general.
5:51
GLENNIS: Of course, yeah, and, and they should.
5:53
BRIAN: In some districts, that's a positive.
5:55
BRIAN: In New York, it was potentially helpful to Chevalier and Valdez, but in lots of other places, especially in a general election-
6:04
GLENNIS: Yeah… BRIAN: any association with Mm-hmm.
6:09
BRIAN: So she might not want it.
6:12
GLENNIS: I know.
6:13
BRIAN: Or she, she- I know … maybe she shouldn't want it.
6:15
BRIAN: Even if she does get it, we'll see about that.
6:17
GLENNIS: Let's talk about Alaska.
6:20
BRIAN: Alaska.
6:20
BRIAN: So Alaska's weird, where we have a ranked choice voting system-
6:26
GLENNIS: Yeah… BRIAN: simultaneously a So the top four vote getters advance to the general election, where there is ranked choice voting.
6:39
GLENNIS: In Alaska, we have one of our best pickup opportunities- Yes … for US Senate.
6:44
GLENNIS: Mary Peltola, who held the Alaska at-large House seat, which means she represented the entire state, has proven that she can win over these really tough to win- Mm-hmm … Trump places, and she's running against a shitty incumbent, Dan Sullivan.
6:59
GLENNIS: The spice in this race is that another Republican also named Dan Sullivan- Mm-hmm is also running.
7:07
GLENNIS: So you have Dan S. Sullivan and Dan J. Sullivan.
7:10
GLENNIS: J. Former fifth grade teacher who's very petty apparently, because that is what motivated his run.
7:16
GLENNIS: He hates Dan S. Sullivan so much.
7:18
GLENNIS: And the Republicans are so ass chapped about this, that they actually think that Dan J. Sullivan is a Democratic plant to confuse the voters come November, so the vote splits and Mary comes out on top.
7:33
BRIAN: Well, there is a lot of speculation about who encouraged him to run.
7:38
GLENNIS: Who cares?
7:39
BRIAN: Mary Peltola immediately was like I don't know her.
7:43
BRIAN: I don't know her.
7:44
BRIAN: You sure?
7:44
BRIAN: It was full Mariah Carey.
7:45
BRIAN: We'll never know.
7:46
BRIAN: They tried to get his name struck from the ballot through the courts, but the courts were like, "Nope, he's a legit dude.
7:52
BRIAN: He says he wants to run, he has a right to run if he wants to."
7:54
GLENNIS: America.
7:55
BRIAN: America.
7:55
BRIAN: And Republicans have pulled this shit before, right?
7:58
BRIAN: Like- Yeah … we, we refer to them as ghost candidates.
8:01
BRIAN: When you just get someone to qualify for the ballot, they run no campaign, but your goal is to confuse voters based on the names that appear on the ballot.
8:08
BRIAN: This is not a ghost candidate because he's actually campaigning.
8:11
BRIAN: He pulled, thus far, ballots are still being counted, about 2.5%.
8:15
BRIAN: That's enough in Alaska, right?
8:17
BRIAN: That's enough, yeah.
8:17
BRIAN: In a close race, 3% or 4% in a general, remember that a general- Yeah … electorate is less engaged than a primary electorate is because a lot more people are gonna vote who didn't even know that there was a primary happening.
8:29
BRIAN: They're low-information voters.
8:30
BRIAN: Those are the people that are most likely to hit the wrong Dan Sullivan.
8:33
BRIAN: Yeah.
8:34
BRIAN: So- There's
8:35
GLENNIS: gonna be a lot of, uh, panic Googling in the ballot box.
8:38
BRIAN: Yeah.
8:38
GLENNIS: Did you also see that Kamala Harris wanted to step in and help Mary, and she said-"No, thank you" … "I'm good."
8:44
BRIAN: Yeah.
8:44
BRIAN: Harris also sent a fundraising email for Peltola, and the campaign- Mm was like, "We did not authorize this. Please stop." Not a great sign.
8:53
GLENNIS: Awkward.
8:54
BRIAN: Not a great sign for our former presidential nominee that in swing states people are trying to distance themselves from her.
9:02
BRIAN: I would say that's like a, a warning sign, a red flag heading into '28.
9:05
BRIAN: It's
9:05
GLENNIS: a good…
9:05
BRIAN: Like, this is a
9:06
GLENNIS: straw poll.
9:06
GLENNIS: Yeah.
9:08
GLENNIS: It's
9:08
BRIAN: like- We'll see… GLENNIS: dot, dot, dot.
9:09
BRIAN: Other races still haven't been called.
9:11
BRIAN: So we had a- Like what?
9:13
BRIAN: … a special election in California to replace sex pest Eric Swalwell.
9:16
BRIAN: He is currently too close to call.
9:18
BRIAN: That was another progressive versus center battle.
9:22
BRIAN: A shorter runway, less national attention, but still tight right now.
9:26
BRIAN: We also had a huge Democratic over-performance in a Pennsylvania special election.
9:33
BRIAN: Did you see this?
9:34
GLENNIS: I did see that.
9:34
GLENNIS: Tell me more, though.
9:35
GLENNIS: Woo.
9:36
BRIAN: This was for a State House seat.
9:38
BRIAN: This was up on Oath.
9:40
BRIAN: This is a Trump plus 18 seat.
9:43
BRIAN: Wow.
9:43
BRIAN: So deep Trump country.
9:45
BRIAN: We had it rated as lean Republican even though we've been over-performing in special elections, especially down ballot.
9:52
BRIAN: We've been over-performing by roughly 13 points on average.
9:55
BRIAN: So this was even- That's a lot … like, yeah, a- another 50% above that.
10:01
BRIAN: This was head and shoulders above our standard over-performance, where the Democrat is currently winning by about 100 votes.
10:08
BRIAN: So a reminder-
10:09
GLENNIS: Whoa… BRIAN: your vote does matter, and into November because everything is on the table Not everybody 100 votes.
10:20
GLENNIS: Can we do a little, like, in five minutes or less, too long, didn't read, what do people need to know about the midterms?
10:26
GLENNIS: I feel like, to your point, more people are clocking in now that some of these primaries are wrapping up, and they're thinking, "Should we be hopeful? Can we actually implement some change to stop Trump or at least put him on pause until the presidential?" What are our opportunities here to actually get some power back?
10:44
BRIAN: Yeah.
10:44
BRIAN: Let's do it.
10:45
BRIAN: Um-
10:45
GLENNIS: And this is your time to shine.
10:47
GLENNIS: Brian is the encyclopedia- … on all things electoral, and I will just ask clarifying questions.
10:53
BRIAN: Okay.
10:54
BRIAN: First up, the US Senate.
10:55
BRIAN: Stakes are very high because we have not gotten a Supreme Court retirement announcement this summer, which means if Trump is going to appoint more Supreme Court justices, we have a chance at blocking it by flipping the Senate.
11:08
BRIAN: To flip the Senate, we need four additional seats.
11:12
BRIAN: The most likely path to get there are to hold all of our current defend seats.
11:18
BRIAN: That's Michigan, Georgia, Minnesota, and New Hampshire, all four.
11:23
BRIAN: And we would need to flip four additional seats.
11:26
BRIAN: Order of likelihood- Mm … that would be North Carolina, Alaska, Ohio, Maine, Iowa, Texas.
11:35
BRIAN: There are other opportunities where we have independents running or more long shot Dems, like Angie Nixon, Scott Colom in Mississippi, Annie Andrews in South Carolina, and others.
11:47
BRIAN: But those are, according to polling, according to the data, not super competitive races.
11:52
BRIAN: The more likely situation is that we pick up seats but don't quite get to a flip, or we could even get to a 50/50 Senate, in which case the vice president becomes the tiebreaker, and there's a power-sharing agreement.
12:04
GLENNIS: Right.
12:05
GLENNIS: Okay.
12:05
GLENNIS: If you live in any of those states, North Carolina, where we have a former governor, Roy Cooper, who's immensely popular in the state, Ohio, Sherrod Brown is a former senator trying to go back.
12:17
GLENNIS: So there's these candidates that are less, like, sexy, right?
12:19
GLENNIS: Everyone knows about James Talarico, right?
12:21
GLENNIS: Yeah.
12:21
GLENNIS: You got Texas kind of at the bottom.
12:22
GLENNIS: We- we're just seeing a lot of surprises, and I just implore anyone who cares about their future or America to volunteer.
12:31
GLENNIS: Text your friends and family who live in these states.
12:33
GLENNIS: Make sure they have a voting plan.
12:34
GLENNIS: Ask them to text five people.
12:35
GLENNIS: Relational organizing works.
12:37
GLENNIS: You just said, those elections, 100 votes.
12:40
GLENNIS: That is, like, your cafeteria- Yeah … in high school.
12:42
GLENNIS: That is so few people.
12:44
GLENNIS: The dead horse that I'm beating is myself of just like, you do have the power.
12:48
GLENNIS: We, the people, do have the power to organize, and we're seeing that it works.
12:52
GLENNIS: And I just hate JD Vance so much, so to even think that he would have that power of being the tiebreaker for two more years Trump's my ass.
13:01
GLENNIS: I hate him.
13:02
GLENNIS: He's a loser
13:03
BRIAN: Yeah.
13:03
BRIAN: That'll be the ultimate heartbreaker is if we get that close.
13:06
BRIAN: It will still be a win because we actually get a lot if we can get to 50.
13:09
BRIAN: 50 is much better than 49 for us.
13:13
BRIAN: Okay.
13:13
BRIAN: Yeah.
13:13
BRIAN: But any seats adds friction to the Trump administration.
13:16
BRIAN: Mm-hmm.
13:16
BRIAN: There have been lots of things that they've wanted to do that they cannot do in the Senate because they lose a couple of votes, especially on things like amendments and vote-a-ramas- Right and that kind of thing.
13:26
BRIAN: If we can get it down to a one-seat majority, to a two-seat majority, they also have a bunch of nutcases on the Republican side being added- Mm-hmm … to the Senate who are gonna make John Thune's life even worse.
13:36
BRIAN: So it's gonna be- Mm … very hard for them to get anything done.
13:38
GLENNIS: Where's Mitch?
13:39
BRIAN: Charles Booker is running for his seat on the Democratic side.
13:41
BRIAN: I think that a lot of people have been tracking the Mitch is dead stuff.
13:44
BRIAN: We do not know his status, and also it's kind of irrelevant because-
13:49
GLENNIS: Yeah… BRIAN: him being away is our Right.
13:52
GLENNIS: Okay.
13:53
GLENNIS: The House.
13:53
BRIAN: The House.
13:54
BRIAN: The House, I've literally been saying for now almost 20 months- is must, must, must, must, must, must, must win.
13:59
BRIAN: Okay.
13:59
BRIAN: Must win.
14:00
BRIAN: Okay.
14:00
BRIAN: So that Trump cannot sign anything without Democrats having their fingerprints all over it probably means he won't do anything at all.
14:06
BRIAN: I mean, we'll pass, like, budgets and stuff like that.
14:08
BRIAN: Right.
14:08
BRIAN: It gives us a ton of power.
14:09
BRIAN: Flipping the House is very achievable.
14:11
BRIAN: Republicans currently have a three-seat majority in the House, but then they gerrymandered in- Right … Texas, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Florida, trying to steal additional seats.
14:21
BRIAN: Democrats fought- Mm-hmm … back in California, Virginia, got a better court ruling in Utah.
14:26
BRIAN: So the net gain for Republicans is somewhere between five and eight seats, probably more like five in this cycle.
14:34
BRIAN: 2028 will look totally different.
14:36
BRIAN: What that means is that we really need to flip eight to 10- Yeah Seats.
14:41
BRIAN: And that is very achievable.
14:42
BRIAN: Okay.
14:42
BRIAN: Since the year 2000, the party in power suffers an average of about a 22-seat loss.
14:50
GLENNIS: Okay.
14:50
BRIAN: So history is on our side.
14:53
BRIAN: Then you factor in the approval rating for Trump hitting an all-time low, the enthusiasm gap between Democratic and Republican voters being absolutely massive, the consistent over-performance of Democrats, and then suddenly you start to see like, oh, there is a very clear path here.
15:09
BRIAN: In terms of where these districts are, they're freaking everywhere.
15:14
BRIAN: Yeah.
15:14
BRIAN: And so you really need to tune in to make sure you're tracking which House seats in your state are gonna be the most competitive.
15:22
BRIAN: But we've focused at both a lot on the pattern that a lot of these most flippable seats have Democrats who are women running for them.
15:30
BRIAN: So that would be like Rebecca Cook, Joanna Mendoza, Paige Cognetti, Janelle Stelson, Rebecca Bennett, and more.
15:37
BRIAN: And then we've also focused a lot on how there are some new younger candidates that are running to bring about a new generation of the Democratic Party, mostly center left, and those would be people like Denise Powell, Kate Conley, Marni von Wilpert, Rebecca Bennett, and, and others.
15:57
BRIAN: Mm-hmm.
15:57
BRIAN: And then you have a more progressive populist slate of candidates.
16:02
BRIAN: That would be Bob Brooks in Pennsylvania, Sam Forstag in Montana, Manny Root, no- Uh-huh … in Colorado, Matt Dunlap, Randy Villegas, and others.
16:10
BRIAN: So regardless of where your personal politics lie, there are House candidates running in flippable seats that match your freak, that are going to meet your energy, where you're at- Mm-hmm the types of policies that you wanna see.
16:24
BRIAN: Go find those races, get plugged into those campaigns, and help because we must, must, must win the House.
16:32
GLENNIS: Yeah, I love that advice.
16:34
GLENNIS: Progressive wins are really won in the primary, but if we're past the primary and it's a more moderate Democrat that maybe you're not thrilled about getting behind, still if you're in that district, vote for them, but then put your volunteer hours towards maybe a candidate that you're super, super excited about.
16:46
GLENNIS: I think that true progressive policy is built brick by brick, and we have to do everything we can to get folks elected.
16:53
GLENNIS: I think people are sick of hearing the stakes are so high, but I feel like people are living that the stakes are high at this point now.
16:59
GLENNIS: I think for years past, maybe some people didn't feel that, especially, you know, middle class America, but the gas prices are real.
17:05
BRIAN: The reason I've been trying to explain why the stakes have been so- Mm-hmm … high cycle after cycle is that 10 years ago we got pushed off of a cliff, and now we are dangling by our fingernails on the very edge over- Kicking our legs.
17:19
BRIAN: Yeah … a 10-mile drop straight into hell, being full on authoritarianism, trying to just, like, crawl and scratch our way off of the cliff.
17:27
BRIAN: I don't think that it means that every election has to be, like, life or death, but until we are actually off of the cliff ledge, this is where things are at.
17:36
BRIAN: Let's talk about governors.
17:38
GLENNIS: Yeah.
17:38
GLENNIS: We have a lot of opportunity with state power.
17:41
BRIAN: Yeah.
17:42
BRIAN: There are 36 gubernatorial elections in 2026.
17:46
BRIAN: Oh.
17:46
BRIAN: Most of them are not competitive, but the ones that are really are, if you know what I mean.
17:51
BRIAN: Mm-hmm.
17:51
BRIAN: They are spicy races.
17:53
BRIAN: People are probably most familiar at this point with David Crowley, who just beat Francesca Hong in Wisconsin- Mm-hmm … and has a very narrow window to win that seat.
18:02
BRIAN: Wisconsin is a must, must, must win trifecta.
18:05
BRIAN: We'll talk about why in a minute.
18:06
BRIAN: Aaron Ford in Nevada is the current attorney general running for governor.
18:10
BRIAN: That's a flip.
18:11
BRIAN: Nevada currently has a Republican governor candidate who you might have seen a clip go viral of him talking about how we just have to be really good to Trump's billionaire friends so that they'll make jobs for us.
18:23
GLENNIS: Right.
18:23
BRIAN: That was him.
18:25
BRIAN: Keisha Lance Bottoms running to be- Mm-hmm … the governor of Georgia.
18:29
BRIAN: Especially exciting because of how well Jon Ossoff is doing in that state, and he's gonna boost turnout.
18:35
BRIAN: Amy Acton, my former professor at Ohio State- Oh Yes.
18:40
GLENNIS: That's fun.
18:41
BRIAN: She was my advisor.
18:42
BRIAN: Is running for governor of Ohio, a more uphill but still toss-up seat.
18:49
BRIAN: She's running against Vivek Ramaswamy.
18:51
BRIAN: Jocelyn Benson running to hold that Whitmer seat in Michigan.
18:54
BRIAN: Katie Hobbs running for re-election.
18:56
BRIAN: Rob Sand, a standout gubernatorial candidate- Mm-hmm … in Iowa, really putting Republicans on their heels there.
19:04
GLENNIS: Yeah.
19:05
BRIAN: And then in Texas, we have Gina Hinojosa running for governor.
19:09
BRIAN: Definitely a tough one, but also exciting that she's on a ticket with Talarico.
19:13
GLENNIS: Yeah.
19:14
BRIAN: And then there's, like, less competitive seats in Maine and New Mexico.
19:17
GLENNIS: And the reason why governors are so important, that is our fastest lever of stopping.
19:22
GLENNIS: Like, they have the power of veto.
19:24
GLENNIS: You'll see it often, so and so vetoed 36 bills.
19:27
GLENNIS: They have power, and it is our first line of defense at the state level.
19:31
GLENNIS: So it's really important that you have a governor behind that desk who's gonna stand up for democracy and your voting rights.
19:36
BRIAN: 100%.
19:38
BRIAN: They really make a huge difference on everything from election certification, voting rights, gerrymandering, all of these things.
19:46
BRIAN: Reproductive rights.
19:47
BRIAN: Yes, exactly.
19:48
BRIAN: So that's a really important one for people to be getting involved with.
19:52
BRIAN: That's governors.
19:53
GLENNIS: Beep.
19:54
GLENNIS: State leg, is it worth talking about?
19:56
GLENNIS: 'Cause it's, what, there's like 1,500 seats up or something more?
19:59
BRIAN: 5,000- What?
20:00
BRIAN: … actually.
20:01
BRIAN: Oh my God.
20:02
BRIAN: 5,000.
20:03
GLENNIS: Okay, let's talk about it.
20:04
BRIAN: Okay.
20:04
BRIAN: But before we go to state leg, we have to talk other state executives, because it's the most overlooked part of the ballot- Oh … that still has massive impact.
20:12
BRIAN: So like AGs.
20:12
BRIAN: So
20:12
GLENNIS: AGs,
20:14
BRIAN: attorneys general, secretaries of state, state supreme courts.
20:18
BRIAN: AGs are the top litigator and law enforcement of your state.
20:21
BRIAN: They determine lots of stuff about election security.
20:24
BRIAN: Mm-hmm.
20:24
BRIAN: We've seen the power of AGs via the Democrats that are suing the Trump administration- Yes … holding him to account and blocking literally hundreds of his executive orders.
20:34
BRIAN: We've also seen the bad side through Ken Paxton- Oh my God in Texas, where he's being- Yeah… absolutely bananas, trying to jail women doctors in other states using-
20:42
GLENNIS: Yeah… BRIAN: his power as AG of Texas.
20:45
GLENNIS: So on that front, we have Wisconsin Attorney General Josh Kaul, Georgia Attorney General candidate Tanya Miller, Nicole Cannizzaro in Nevada, Keith Ellison running for re-election in Minnesota, Kris Mayes, who we've talked about before.
21:01
GLENNIS: She won by 280 votes out of 2.5 million in Arizona in 2022.
21:07
GLENNIS: She's running for re-election.
21:08
GLENNIS: We love our lesbians.
21:11
GLENNIS: And Let's dance… BRIAN: uh, and they're paired competitive secretary of state races.
21:18
GLENNIS: In most states, secretary of state is the top election administration- Mm-hmm … official.
21:22
GLENNIS: They're responsible for things like voter rolls, polling locations, all kinds of things that contribute to having free and fair elections.
21:29
GLENNIS: Fair, yeah.
21:29
GLENNIS: Yeah.
21:30
GLENNIS: So Garlin Gilchrist running in Michigan.
21:33
GLENNIS: We have Cisco Aguilar running for re-election in Nevada.
21:37
GLENNIS: Mm-hmm.
21:37
GLENNIS: That's a big race- Yeah … that both has been super involved with.
21:39
GLENNIS: Allison Russo in Ohio, Adrian Fontes in Arizona.
21:45
GLENNIS: Beau Bayh, a shocker, but Indiana.
21:48
GLENNIS: He's like- Okay … really trying to sneak one past Republicans.
21:52
GLENNIS: Very compelling candidate, comes from a political family.
21:55
GLENNIS: All very, very important races for people to be paying attention to as well.
21:58
GLENNIS: Yeah, and their term is what?
21:59
GLENNIS: Two, four years?
22:00
GLENNIS: How long?
22:00
BRIAN: Depends on the state.
22:01
BRIAN: Most are four.
22:02
BRIAN: Okay.
22:02
BRIAN: Cisco and Adrian both are in four-year terms, Nevada, Arizona, so they were up in '22.
22:08
GLENNIS: And this matters for '28.
22:10
GLENNIS: We hear a lot of fear-mongering online from the president, Donald Trump, attempting to weaken our election integrity.
22:16
GLENNIS: These are the political officials and government officials who will be the front lines, making sure that we have free and fair elections in '28.
22:24
BRIAN: That's right.
22:24
BRIAN: That's right.
22:24
BRIAN: That's right.
22:25
BRIAN: And then the last state executive that I wanna highlight are state supreme court seats.
22:28
BRIAN: State courts, again, so overlooked, so important, and the court is up for grabs in North Carolina, Montana- Yeah … Ohio, Michigan, and more.
22:41
BRIAN: So make sure that you check to make sure that you know what state court seats are up in your state.
22:45
GLENNIS: And fear not, not every state supreme court is by election.
22:49
GLENNIS: Some are appointed, so if you don't have a state supreme court race on your ballot, it's because your governor appoints them.
22:53
BRIAN: That's right.
22:54
BRIAN: That's right.
22:54
BRIAN: That's right.
22:55
BRIAN: The last part of the ballot that we should talk about is state legislatures.
23:00
BRIAN: Mm-hmm.
23:00
BRIAN: State houses are super important.
23:02
BRIAN: Republicans have shown us that by pushing all kinds of things like abortion bans and gun access and LGBT issues and voting access, all these been pushed to the state level or are constitutionally designated as decisions to be made at the state level.
23:18
BRIAN: He who controls the State House controls everything, controls a lot.
23:22
GLENNIS: Yeah.
23:23
BRIAN: We have flippable chambers in Minnesota, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina.
23:32
BRIAN: We have super majorities up for grabs- Mm-hmm … that are really important for lots of different reasons, including gubernatorial override power, things like putting issues directly on the ballot for voters, like ballot referendums.
23:47
BRIAN: That's a good place for us to be looking.
23:48
BRIAN: Iowa, Kansas, Colorado, Oregon, Washington, and others.
23:55
BRIAN: The odds are you live in or directly near a competitive State House seat.
24:00
BRIAN: Yeah.
24:00
BRIAN: There are hundreds and hundreds of competitive races at that level of ballot.
24:04
BRIAN: Get plugged in.
24:05
BRIAN: You can check Oath, oath.vote/states, where you can see all the top races in your state.
24:10
GLENNIS: Yeah, and I think the true, like, vibe too long, didn't read on all of this is like while yes, the federal government feels fascist and hyper conservative and hard to look at, there is so much opportunity at the state and federal level, but at the state level, folks really should plug in.
24:29
GLENNIS: And if you've ever wanted an opportunity to get more involved in your state elections, this would be the cycle to do it.
24:36
BRIAN: That's right.
24:36
BRIAN: For Oath Candidate of the Week, we've literally given you dozens of races to choose from.
24:41
BRIAN: So I'm gonna suggest again that you go to oath.vote/states.
24:45
BRIAN: Go choose a candidate this week that you wanna get involved with.
24:49
BRIAN: You can support them directly on the platform and learn more about their race.
24:52
GLENNIS: Choose your own adventure.
24:54
BRIAN: Yes.
24:54
GLENNIS: It's been a slow news week this week.
24:56
GLENNIS: There's some quick hits I wanted to talk to you about just to get your feedback.
25:00
GLENNIS: One, Nancy Mace's new aura.
25:03
GLENNIS: Have you seen this?
25:04
BRIAN: Yes.
25:05
GLENNIS: Okay, so for those who don't know, Nancy Mace, hyper conservative former… Does she, she's not in the House anymore.
25:11
BRIAN: She's, she's still in the House until her term is up.
25:13
GLENNIS: Okay, but she's phoning it in.
25:14
GLENNIS: Like, she doesn't do anything.
25:15
GLENNIS: Has a new persona online.
25:16
GLENNIS: She's gonna become a right-wing talking head, new YouTube show.
25:20
GLENNIS: She has all these tattoos now.
25:21
GLENNIS: It was big on the internet this week.
25:22
GLENNIS: The right is very, very good at their digital presence, I will say that.
25:26
GLENNIS: And I'm sure someone approached her saying, "What's next for you? Do you wanna become a talking head? Do you need seed money for investment for your YouTube?" I wish it was called Get fucked.
25:35
GLENNIS: But
25:37
BRIAN: it's not.
25:37
BRIAN: It's not.
25:37
BRIAN: This is interesting to me because it reinforces the monetization of extremism- For sure … in the country that Nancy Mace has built a brand and a huge name ID, positive and negative, probably mostly even negative, saying outrageous things and attacking people personally and in a vindictive and ugly way, not by being a good legislator or having thoughtful policy positions, just by being a bomb thrower.
26:02
GLENNIS: Yeah, she's crazy.
26:03
BRIAN: Now she's cashing out on that, where people don't really realize, but just putting out more inflammatory content to get clicks and views actually could make her seven figures a year.
26:13
BRIAN: A ton of money.
26:15
BRIAN: She could literally be printing money, and then you add on top of that that MAGA and Republican world is constantly selling influence and policy positions for cash.
26:26
BRIAN: People like Laura Loomer are out here taking stances on really niche issues because they're being- Uh-huh … paid to do it.
26:32
BRIAN: This is why we need to clean up so many aspects of public service.
26:37
BRIAN: It's beyond just money and elections.
26:38
BRIAN: It's also about what people are doing and how they're abusing the system to cash in after they've been in.
26:45
GLENNIS: Yeah, for sure.
26:46
GLENNIS: We're gonna do, like, kind of a new section this week, 'cause our comment section- Okay … has been heating up on TikTok.
26:52
GLENNIS: There's a lot of engagement, and I
26:54
BRIAN: would say
26:55
GLENNIS: the c- Spicy … the community manages, you guys manage each other, and I appreciate that.
26:58
GLENNIS: Something about me is I can't help myself.
27:00
GLENNIS: If you're in my comments section, I will respond.
27:03
GLENNIS: We talked about the DSA interview last week, the now infamous DSA interview with the co-chair that was on the New Yorker Radio Hour.
27:09
GLENNIS: There were a lot of comments about us, by talking about this and saying it was a shit show, we were actually helping Republicans.
27:18
GLENNIS: We were doing the Republicans' job for them, which I vehemently disagree with.
27:22
GLENNIS: We are not doing Republicans' jobs for them.
27:25
GLENNIS: In fact, we spend 60 hours a week making sure more Democrats are elected.
27:29
GLENNIS: For me, more progressive Democrats.
27:31
GLENNIS: If you are a card-carrying member of the DSA and you think that was an okay performance by the co-chair of your national party, you need to get a grip.
27:39
GLENNIS: That person does represent
27:41
BRIAN: your
27:41
GLENNIS: party.
27:43
BRIAN: I agree, and I would also just say, like, welcome to the big leagues.
27:46
BRIAN: As the DSA becomes household name of people knowing what it is and wanting to know more about it, that comes with public scrutiny.
27:55
BRIAN: It's a different bar that you're going to be subjected to when the spotlight is on you, and if your candidates start winning, which they are starting to win, if you're next to the fire, you're gonna feel some heat.
28:06
BRIAN: Like, that's just how it goes.
28:08
GLENNIS: Yeah.
28:08
GLENNIS: There was one comment in particular.
28:10
GLENNIS: There were a lot of members of the DSA in the comment section saying, like, "This was unacceptable.
28:14
GLENNIS: I'm extremely disappointed.
28:15
GLENNIS: We are in the big leagues now.
28:17
GLENNIS: We have to represent ourselves as such." And Palpable Void went back and forth
28:23
BRIAN: with me
28:25
GLENNIS: on something.
28:25
GLENNIS: Oh my God, by name.
28:25
GLENNIS: By name.
28:25
GLENNIS: By by name.
28:26
GLENNIS: They said, "Okay, so without Googling it," is how they started it, which I love that trust- … in the comment section that, okay, yeah, we're on the internet in a dialogue, and I'm not gonna Google it.
28:35
GLENNIS: Their argument was, "Tell me who the Republican National Committee co-chair is and the Democratic National Committee co-chair is, and if their interviews are good.
28:42
GLENNIS: The reason why I say this is because you don't know who those people are, and, and you've never seen an interview with either of them because nobody knows who they are, and their opinion- What?
28:49
GLENNIS: … doesn't matter, and they don't actually have an impact on the progress of the party.
28:52
GLENNIS: They are just appointed positions." And that is categorically just untrue.
28:57
GLENNIS: Being the leader of a party is an extremely important role.
29:01
GLENNIS: We have talked about Ken Martin on this podcast numerous times- Of course … because he is doing a bad job as the party chair of the DNC.
29:10
GLENNIS: That's my opinion.
29:12
BRIAN: Uh
29:12
GLENNIS: Sorry, Ken.
29:12
GLENNIS: Like, I'm, I'm here to help, like, truly He's like in the shadows now.
29:18
GLENNIS: He's, he won't-- He's, he's not doing any New Yorker radio.
29:21
BRIAN: Everyone saw that Crooked interview of Ken Martin talking about the- Every- … the autopsy.
29:25
BRIAN: What do you mean that like we haven't seen it?
29:27
BRIAN: You're right.
29:27
BRIAN: You're right.
29:27
BRIAN: No one knows who-- Like everyone knows who, who that is.
29:30
BRIAN: What do you mean?
29:30
GLENNIS: And we all read him to filth because of it, because it was- Yeah, right so bad.
29:35
GLENNIS: When I said that that interview was deeply unserious, I meant it.
29:39
GLENNIS: And to your point, if you wanna be in the big leagues, if you wanna have real power at the local, state, and federal level, you have to show up showing your cont- constituency, got it right, that you can actually do it.
29:55
GLENNIS: Don't come for me in my comment section.
29:57
BRIAN: Okay, do not come for Glennis.
29:58
BRIAN: Let's see who can go to bat this week.
30:01
BRIAN: I'm sure that people will have something to say about our Angie Nixon perspectives.
30:05
GLENNIS: Oh yeah, let's do clickbait double click.
30:06
GLENNIS: Okay.
30:06
GLENNIS: Let me-
30:07
BRIAN: Yeah.
30:07
BRIAN: G, let me throw some at ya.
30:09
BRIAN: It's been going super viral that Jon Ossoff named names in his latest rally saying that Trump would rather be traveling with Natalie Harp on his Qatari jet instead of doing h- the job of the president.
30:25
BRIAN: Right-wing media melted down because he was implying- Trump melted
30:29
GLENNIS: down.
30:29
BRIAN: Trump also melted down.
30:30
BRIAN: Did you see the interview?
30:30
BRIAN: Yeah.
30:31
BRIAN: Yes.
30:32
BRIAN: So Jon Ossoff basically saying there's an inappropriate relationship between Natalie Harp and Trump.
30:36
BRIAN: Is it a clickbait or a double click?
30:39
GLENNIS: It's clickbait because Natalie Harp is clickbait, all of it, but I do think that it's like a masterclass in attention economy and, and getting Trump triggered.
30:47
GLENNIS: Like the comment I'm referencing is a CNN call-out in the Oval Office, and he just like lost it.
30:52
GLENNIS: And unfortunately, the people of the United States of America are used to Donald Trump being a wild misogynist and speaking down to and yelling at a woman and saying that she's deeply unserious, and to be quiet and to shush and to all of these things.
31:05
GLENNIS: But there's no denying that Donald Trump left that Air Force One jet and used the press corps as a decoy, and you know who was in his little muffin cart?
31:15
GLENNIS: Natalie Harp and his bag boy.
31:16
GLENNIS: So he saved Natalie Harp-
31:18
BRIAN: No, no pun intended.
31:20
GLENNIS: Like, no, it's literally crazy that that's who he selected.
31:23
GLENNIS: Sorry, I know I said this is clickbait, but I think it also shows there's another clip that resurfaced from the '24 election where he's next to Natalie Harp, and she's just tweeting away for him.
31:32
GLENNIS: So she's with him at all times.
31:34
GLENNIS: She is his mouthpiece in a way online.
31:36
GLENNIS: I think she's really running a lot of his digital media accounts.
31:39
GLENNIS: But otherwise it's clickbait, like-
31:40
BRIAN: Yeah.
31:40
BRIAN: I think that A-level comms are getting everyone to talk about the thing that you want them to talk about.
31:48
BRIAN: S-level comms gets the right to talk about something that is asinine and insane, and gets the left and middle to hear the message that you want them to hear that is substantive.
32:03
BRIAN: And that is what that comment did.
32:04
BRIAN: Jon Ossoff, to anyone who's not a easily triggered baby-
32:09
GLENNIS: Mm-hmm… BRIAN: what everyone else heard$400 million in the biggest bribe in the history of the country?" That's what they were reminded of.
32:20
GLENNIS: Meanwhile, the right is not defending the Qatari jet, is not- Hmm defending Trump against the bribe and gas prices and his lack of doing the job, which is what Jon Ossoff actually said.
32:32
GLENNIS: The right is latching onto the trigger bait.
32:35
GLENNIS: Yeah.
32:35
BRIAN: The right is talking about like, "Trump's not having an affair.
32:38
BRIAN: Trump's not having an affair.
32:39
BRIAN: Trump's not having an affair.
32:40
BRIAN: Trump's not having an affair."
32:41
GLENNIS: Yeah.
32:42
BRIAN: Is Trump having an affair?
32:43
BRIAN: Like that, like pe- that's all that people are hearing- Mm-hmm … is Qatari jet Not doing the job, double gas prices, Trump may or may not be having an affair.
32:52
BRIAN: That is S class elite comms strategy, and I love to see it Yeah.
32:57
GLENNIS: Bette Midler, LOL, posted a pin that said, "We are all the plane decoy." And she's not wrong.
33:06
GLENNIS: Really quickly, Brian, did you see, now that we're on the topic of MAGA spiraling, Mayor Mamdani theater lottery videos?
33:13
GLENNIS: Did you see all these clips?
33:14
GLENNIS: And he- Oh, yeah And speaking of, like, effective communication, he put out, like, four or five videos.
33:21
GLENNIS: The first was, like, in English, then it was in Spanish, then it was in Bengali, and then it was in Mandarin, and people were like, "It's AI, it's AI," and then he showed the blooper reel of him, like, really trying, and it's not AI.
33:33
GLENNIS: The Mandarin one specifically sent right-wing Twitter into a spiral, that he was speaking in the language of the revolutionaries and that we actually want communism in New York, and it's like,"No, actually, we just have a extremely large Chinese American population here."
33:50
BRIAN: I can't even ask where the bathroom is in Spanish.
33:53
BRIAN: So the ability for him to communicate a whole ass program that he's rolling out- Mm-hmm … in five different languages is so impressive.
34:04
BRIAN: Yeah, he's just… The comms are just
34:07
GLENNIS: it.
34:07
GLENNIS: And I will say, people will communicate directly to him through social media saying, "Mayor Mamdani, do this.
34:13
GLENNIS: Mayor Mamdani, do this." And he's been biking a lot, and a lot of people have been saying, "Where's your helmet, bro?" I was.
34:18
GLENNIS: I was like, "I read Mick Harte Was Here in fifth grade." Did you read that?
34:22
BRIAN: No.
34:22
GLENNIS: It's basically a, it's like a helmet safety book we read in the early '90s.
34:27
GLENNIS: Anyway, he saw it, and then he just released a video that now he's wearing a helmet, and he said, "You're right, New Yorkers. I was wrong. Safety first."
34:33
BRIAN: Good for him.
34:34
BRIAN: Okay, I have to, I have to go there.
34:36
BRIAN: The Trump ballroom, which was supposed to be $100 million paid for by-
34:40
GLENNIS: Trump
34:41
BRIAN: himself … out- outside companies and, and shit, um, by- Well,
34:44
GLENNIS: actually, let's just-… benefactors Let's clarify this.
34:46
GLENNIS: No, this is important.
34:47
GLENNIS: The ballroom was gonna be paid for by the Alphabet Google settlement.
34:52
GLENNIS: So it was Trump suing for First Amendment something, something, and Google paid him- And then using that for the ballroom … $112 million.
34:58
GLENNIS: Yes.
34:58
GLENNIS: So it wasn't, like- Right … his own money.
35:00
GLENNIS: It was also a byproduct of his corruption and pettiness.
35:03
BRIAN: So then it was gonna be $300 million, and he was still saying that it was gonna be paid for by benefactors, and we were just gonna slap Apple logos and Google logos- Mm-hmm all over everything in the People's House.
35:14
BRIAN: That was gonna pay for it.
35:15
BRIAN: Meanwhile, we all knew that we were gonna foot the bill for $300 million.
35:19
BRIAN: And then it's just come out, people reviewing the actual contracts through leaks and whatnot, that it's actually gonna cost $900 million, and we're paying the whole thing.
35:30
BRIAN: Taxpayers are paying for all of it Double click or clickbait?
35:35
GLENNIS: Double click.
35:35
GLENNIS: For that ugly ass ballroom while, like, our soldiers, not that I'm, like, pro-military budget, our soldiers on the USS Lincoln are Oliver Twisting their lives and are like, "Please, sir, I want some more." There's no food for them, and the fact that we're sending our break glass aircraft carrier out of Japan.
35:53
GLENNIS: This is clickbait for me because it is such an absolute waste of taxpayer dollars.
35:58
GLENNIS: We were lied to, and you say on the hill you die on.
36:00
GLENNIS: Everything in your life is more expensive because of Donald Trump and his actions, and he is just dredging our tax dollars for an ugly ass, gaudy ballroom that no one wanted.
36:11
BRIAN: Yeah.
36:11
BRIAN: It's gonna be a pit in the ground when he leaves office.
36:15
BRIAN: I hope we're able to stop as much of that as possible.
36:18
BRIAN: It's currently blocked by the courts right now.
36:19
BRIAN: But I would say double click.
36:20
BRIAN: As long as we're always relating the ballroom back to actual costs, that's the double click.
36:25
BRIAN: It's become just such a debacle.
36:27
BRIAN: I think that I probably said, like, pure clickbait back when it first started,'cause we were trying to focus on the Stormtrooper-ification of America.
36:36
BRIAN: Yeah.
36:36
BRIAN: But I think that people now, as he's become more and more and more brazenly corrupt, just it's become a symbol for kind of all of it in a big way.
36:45
GLENNIS: Yeah.
36:46
GLENNIS: Je agree.
36:47
BRIAN: Should we send them off with a good vibe?
36:48
GLENNIS: This is a good vibe for me.
36:49
GLENNIS: Maybe less of a good vibe for you because strategically this seat might be harder to win.
36:53
GLENNIS: But Cory Mills is out.
36:55
BRIAN: Yeah, so Cory Mills was one of the dirtbags in the dirtbags slate that we talked about a few weeks ago.
36:59
BRIAN: He is currently under investigation for domestic abuse, financial fraud.
37:05
BRIAN: He's really a bad guy.
37:07
BRIAN: He was the one who got, like, kicked out of his house for not paying, like, tens of thousands- It's horrible … dollars of rent.
37:11
BRIAN: He
37:11
GLENNIS: should be in jail.
37:12
BRIAN: Treating women like shit.
37:13
BRIAN: So real dirtbag.
37:14
BRIAN: He just lost his primary to a different Republican.
37:18
BRIAN: It is good news because we love accountability in any way that it can come.
37:22
BRIAN: Of course, being the petty bitch that I am, I was hoping that this would be a flip in the general rather than- Mm-hmm … a loss for him in the primary.
37:31
BRIAN: But we still have Bale Dalton running in that race who we'll get behind and hope that he can pull off an upset.
37:37
GLENNIS: Eat shit, Cory.
37:39
BRIAN: And on that note, we hope you have a great week.
37:42
BRIAN: Mm-hmm.
37:42
BRIAN: We'll be back here same time, same place next week to check the vibes of American politics.
37:48
BRIAN: Hope you enjoyed our midterm breakdown.
37:50
BRIAN: Please send us your questions via DM. Get in those comments and throw some bows.
37:56
BRIAN: We need our vibes only listeners with their knives out defending- Yeah … our hot takes.
38:03
BRIAN: So would love to see you guys there, and leave us a review.
38:05
BRIAN: Thank you, thank you.
38:06
GLENNIS: Thank you.