Latest / Cash Lads / The Donald Trump Federal Reserve?
Transcript
- 0:01SPEAKER_00: Welcome to Cash Lads.
- 0:02SPEAKER_00: My name is Paul Malloy from BoxcoverTax.aue, and this is Marcus Doyle from Clear Financial.
- 0:08SPEAKER_00: We're here to take the mystery out of money and finance with some history, some stories, and plenty of humor too.
- 0:20SPEAKER_01: Hello everyone.
- 0:23SPEAKER_01: Marcus, how are you getting on?
- 0:24SPEAKER_01: Sure, I can't complain, can I?
- 0:25SPEAKER_01: Cool, cool.
- 0:26SPEAKER_01: Well, today we're going to talk specifically about a chap called Kevin Walsh.
- 0:31SPEAKER_01: And Kevin Warsh is now the new uh chairman of the Federal Reserve.
- 0:34SPEAKER_01: He's Donald Trump's pick.
- 0:38SPEAKER_01: So he's he got to do what Donald Trump tells him to do.
- 0:40SPEAKER_01: Well, after 18 months of trying to get rid of Jay Powell, uh he he he has got got rid of him by not renewing his term.
- 0:48SPEAKER_01: Um and he's now got the man that he wants.
- 0:52SPEAKER_01: But is he going to be um Trump's um ally?
- 0:57SPEAKER_01: Ally?
- 0:58SPEAKER_01: That's a word we could use, which is more friendly on the radio.
- 1:00SPEAKER_01: Um we can't mention the words we were discussing earlier.
- 1:03SPEAKER_01: Well, uh, or is he going to kind of you know go his own way?
- 1:06SPEAKER_01: Will he be independent?
- 1:07SPEAKER_01: And and the thing is, um, just before we start, like what do central banks do?
- 1:12SPEAKER_01: I'm sure everyone has an idea, but maybe not completely.
- 1:15SPEAKER_01: Um, the probably the best way to understand about what central banks do is they they manage interest rates, really short-term interest rates.
- 1:22SPEAKER_01: So if if the economy is too hot, if prices are rising, like we have in Ireland, for example, um, then we would want uh interest rates to go up just to just to cool things down.
- 1:34SPEAKER_01: If everything's going fine, when we can leave interest rates as they are, just like the ECB did this week.
- 1:40SPEAKER_01: Um, or we can um cut cut rates, which makes it cheaper to borrow, makes it easier for business in general.
- 1:48SPEAKER_02: And which happened after the 2008 crash and we have to do that.
- 1:51SPEAKER_01: Yeah, 2008 crash, exactly.
- 1:52SPEAKER_01: We we went down to practically zero.
- 1:55SPEAKER_01: Practically zero.
- 1:56SPEAKER_01: And we'll talk about some of the things that the Fed did back then that went beyond just interest rates.
- 2:01SPEAKER_01: Um, Donald Trump has believed for quite some time, as and he's not the first president to think this, that interest rates are too high and that he's going to pay a political price in November because interest rates are too high.
- 2:15SPEAKER_01: But of course, he started the Iran War, which is at at time of recording, still rumbling, and the ceasefire seems to this this ceasefire has been gone off rage.
- 2:25SPEAKER_01: I think the ceasefire seems to be gone.
- 2:27SPEAKER_01: Um, and now we have the Houtis in um in Yemen.
- 2:31SPEAKER_01: Uh, they have blocked or they're blocking most of the Red Sea.
- 2:35SPEAKER_01: So there's two ways for oil to come out from the Gulf by a tanker.
- 2:39SPEAKER_01: One is the is the is the Strait of Hormuz, which we've been hearing about for the last while, and the other is the Red Sea.
- 2:44SPEAKER_01: And I Iran have now played the the Houtie card because they're an ally of Iran.
- 2:49SPEAKER_01: So now we're seeing the the price of oil really rocket back up again.
- 2:53SPEAKER_01: Um, as high as it's been since May.
- 2:56SPEAKER_01: So so what is what is Kevin Warsh?
- 2:58SPEAKER_01: Who is he?
- 2:59SPEAKER_01: Um and what is he what has he got?
- 3:01SPEAKER_01: You probably know him personally, Paul.
- 3:03SPEAKER_01: I don't, I don't.
- 3:04SPEAKER_01: He's a he's he's uh he's kind of one of these wonder kins, you know.
- 3:08SPEAKER_01: He's he's a New Yorker, he went to Stanford, he has a law degree.
- 3:12SPEAKER_01: He is not a PhD economist, and we were talking about this earlier, Marcus.
- 3:16SPEAKER_01: That like Ben Bernanke, who was the Fed chairman at the time of the 2008 crash, thankfully for all of us, had studied the Great Depression all his life and had studied the mistakes that had been made by policymakers in America, especially.
- 3:31SPEAKER_02: He's the right man at the right time.
- 3:32SPEAKER_01: He was the right man at the right time, 100%.
- 3:34SPEAKER_01: But he was very much an economist, you know.
- 3:37SPEAKER_01: Whereas, you know, uh Alan Greenspan, for example, was much more of a you know a kind of a Wall Street guy.
- 3:43SPEAKER_01: Um and and and so and so was Kevin Walsh.
- 3:46SPEAKER_01: Uh he was uh special advisor to President George W.
- 3:49SPEAKER_01: Bush, which means he's seen kind of the inside of government at a at a at a very, very high level.
- 3:55SPEAKER_02: So it all works.
- 3:55SPEAKER_01: Yeah, yeah.
- 3:56SPEAKER_01: But he's very much a Wall Street guy.
- 3:58SPEAKER_01: Like he he he worked in uh mergers and acquisitions, corporate finance, um, capital markets.
- 4:03SPEAKER_01: So that's that's his his thing.
- 4:06SPEAKER_01: And um he he's you know, he's very, very young.
- 4:10SPEAKER_01: He was 35 when he was picked as a uh a Federal Reserve um governor of New York in uh at the age of 35.
- 4:17SPEAKER_01: Because that is young.
- 4:18SPEAKER_01: That is young for the when you think about some of the you know, Paul Volcker and Um Greenspan and some of these guys, they're like they're like the Pope, you know, like it's like don't need you need not apply unless you're over 65.
- 4:30SPEAKER_01: Um so he was certainly uh a young guy.
- 4:32SPEAKER_01: And in 2008, um it wasn't just that the Americans cut interest rates to zero, you know.
- 4:41SPEAKER_01: Uh it's it's it's it's the other things they did.
- 4:44SPEAKER_01: So you think about 2008, all those terrible, crappy, mortgage related, housing-related investments that we've talked about before, the the mortgage-backed securities, the CDOs.
- 4:55SPEAKER_01: These were just dreadful, dreadful, worthless things.
- 4:58SPEAKER_01: The Federal Reserve took them off the banks and gave them cash.
- 5:02SPEAKER_01: A bit like the property in Ireland.
- 5:04SPEAKER_01: We'll take a bit like Nama.
- 5:05SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
- 5:05SPEAKER_01: Bit like that, that kind of idea.
- 5:07SPEAKER_01: So so they they suddenly had all these, you know, and effectively they you know, the the the central bank can literally just create money.
- 5:13SPEAKER_01: It can it can just say this is you know, we'll take your assets and here you now owe us a loan, you owe us money, but they give them the cash.
- 5:20SPEAKER_01: So um, so this was very, very, very effective.
- 5:24SPEAKER_01: And then um about 2010, Bernanke wanted to go again because the world the world economy hadn't really recovered.
- 5:33SPEAKER_01: You know, if you've if you've uh have have cancer, you know, one of the serious cancers, and you and you know, recovery is not two weeks, it it takes longer.
- 5:43SPEAKER_01: But um Warsh was uh he was unhappy with this, and and this is one of his big things.
- 5:50SPEAKER_01: It's like when is an emergency not an emergency?
- 5:53SPEAKER_01: You know, at what point does an emergency just become a manageable crisis?
- 5:58SPEAKER_01: Why do we need to uh print all this money again effectively?
- 6:01SPEAKER_01: And uh within a year he was gone.
- 6:03SPEAKER_01: Within a year he was gone.
- 6:04SPEAKER_01: He just he just could get on with Bernanke totally disagreed on um on quantitative easing or QE.
- 6:11SPEAKER_01: You'll sometimes hear the words QE.
- 6:12SPEAKER_01: Those certainly those working in finance will hear those words, and that's what quantitative easing is.
- 6:16SPEAKER_01: It's it's a measure beyond just interest rates.
- 6:19SPEAKER_01: It's it's it's a how can we make things even easier for the financial system?
- 6:24SPEAKER_01: So what is what is Kevin Walsh's view?
- 6:30SPEAKER_01: You know, and is his so Donald Trump's view of the Federal Reserve is it should do what I tell it to do.
- 6:35SPEAKER_01: That's his view of the Federal Reserve.
- 6:36SPEAKER_01: Pretty much.
- 6:39SPEAKER_02: Yeah, exactly, Mark, exactly.
- 6:40SPEAKER_01: So so in 1997, Britain, uh under Tony Blair, within a couple of within a few days of of new labour coming to power, they made the Bank of England independent.
- 6:50SPEAKER_01: And you know, the Federal Reserve is is independent as well.
- 6:54SPEAKER_01: And Trump, I think, would like it to kind of lose that independent street.
- 6:59SPEAKER_01: But what Walsh believes in, he believes in price stability, right?
- 7:03SPEAKER_01: So he believes in inflation at 2% and no higher.
- 7:07SPEAKER_01: And there's very few central bank governors or who disagree with that, right?
- 7:11SPEAKER_01: That's not that's not a controversial statement.
- 7:13SPEAKER_02: It's it's kind of common knowledge for anyone who knows a bit about finance.
- 7:16SPEAKER_02: You don't want inflation up three, four, or five percent.
- 7:18SPEAKER_01: No, and that's that's kind of where we are, and we're definitely going to come back to that, like that's that whole idea of how do we get from four to two and do we need to and should we?
- 7:27SPEAKER_01: Um, he certainly believes in financial stability.
- 7:30SPEAKER_01: So the fact that Bernanke and the Federal Reserve acted the way they did in 2008, totally agreed with that.
- 7:36SPEAKER_01: The financial system was uh in meltdown.
- 7:39SPEAKER_01: There was no um there was no liquidity, banks stopped lending to each other, and banks lent to each other constantly, like for a day, two days, just to tie each other over.
- 7:49SPEAKER_01: That all had stopped.
- 7:51SPEAKER_01: So they needed to intervene.
- 7:54SPEAKER_01: They needed to intervene.
- 7:56SPEAKER_01: So um that's another one that he so that I suppose that financial stability, that's the second one that he believes in.
- 8:01SPEAKER_01: And then the whole area of unemployment, like the Federal Reserve has always tried to see, well, can we be more flexible with interest rates if it helps if it helps employment um in America?
- 8:13SPEAKER_01: So, but you know, um sometimes we all take on things we shouldn't do, you know.
- 8:20SPEAKER_01: Um sometimes people might say we should shouldn't have taken on this podcast marks, but who said that?
- 8:25SPEAKER_01: Well, we have we have tell me where they live.
- 8:28SPEAKER_01: But the um the Federal Reserve in the last 15, 20 years, or particularly more recently, has has gotten very involved in the whole area of climate change and that has has spent resources trying to you know investigate climate change and what can be done or inequality in America, which is obviously very, very high.
- 8:46SPEAKER_01: There's a lot of wealthy people in America, but there's an awful lot of poor people too.
- 8:49SPEAKER_01: And Warshbush believes this is just just baloney.
- 8:52SPEAKER_01: You know, just stay out of this stuff.
- 8:55SPEAKER_01: 100% stay out of the stuff, stick to the back to the money.
- 8:59SPEAKER_02: Stick to the well, I I suppose looking at it from maybe a European point of view, that if I know climate change will affect the economies because if there's a drastic change in the climate, it'll change the way we can do business and stuff like that.
- 9:12SPEAKER_02: So I I get the point, but I I also get your your point on his that they should just get back to interest rates, unemployment, make sure there's enough money in the economy, all that kind of stuff.
- 9:21SPEAKER_02: I get that.
- 9:22SPEAKER_02: That's his take.
- 9:23SPEAKER_01: That's that that's it.
- 9:24SPEAKER_01: That that's his take.
- 9:25SPEAKER_01: So so so his his to to just to revisit kind of I suppose the things that he feels strongly about or what he wants to nudge the Fed, and I think nudge is an important word because he doesn't decide interest rates.
- 9:38SPEAKER_01: The the um uh the rate setting committee that they have, uh there's like 12 governors, I think there's nine people on the federal open open rate committee, something like that.
- 9:47SPEAKER_01: So he is he has the bully pulpit, he is the face of the Fed, he is he is one vote, right?
- 9:54SPEAKER_01: And I think people just kind of forget that sometimes.
- 9:57SPEAKER_01: Um, the leader is the one who makes the decisions.
- 10:01SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I mean, if everyone else committee basically.
- 10:03SPEAKER_01: Yeah, if everyone else disagrees with him, like he's he's like sitting in the canteen on his own, he's got no friends, you know.
- 10:08SPEAKER_01: Like so um, so it's a lonely place, the Federal Reserve canteen.
- 10:13SPEAKER_01: It could be a bit embarrassing if it's a Fed chairman, you're rolling your own.
- 10:17SPEAKER_01: But um so look, he wants to get inflation down to two percent.
- 10:21SPEAKER_01: It's it's it's been hovering around the three percent mark for some time.
- 10:24SPEAKER_01: Um, and hit his belief is that people have come to expect infl inflation.
- 10:31SPEAKER_01: I think we all have in aren't.
- 10:33SPEAKER_01: I think we see we we have we've almost no idea what the price of point should be anymore.
- 10:38SPEAKER_02: Yeah, but it's like just just certain products I remember, it's like this is actually double the price because something that you get regularly in November, but everything else is like, what was this a few years ago?
- 10:47SPEAKER_01: And we've just gotten used to it, you know, and um he he really sees that as a problem because if everyone expects inflation to be about four or five percent every year, that that's kind of what it'll be because we walk in, we're not gonna complain, we're not gonna say anything.
- 11:03SPEAKER_01: The shopkeepers see us come and go, Well, that'll take an extra, an extra bit of you know, money on top of their their price, I'll increase their prices a bit.
- 11:10SPEAKER_01: So he's very much believes that you know when when the when the Fed acts, it should be people should go, whoa, right.
- 11:17SPEAKER_01: You know, it's kind of like you're throwing up your parents, you know, your mom has been passive for a while, and she she screams at you, and you're like, I've gone too far here.
- 11:25SPEAKER_01: Like, um, so yeah, but this would hint at a guy that really believes we need to hit hard with interest rates to get it back under control.
- 11:38SPEAKER_01: Now, how's that going to play with Donald Trump?
- 11:40SPEAKER_01: Because he doesn't want interest rates.
- 11:42SPEAKER_01: I've just hired you to bring interest rates to do this, and you're doing it.
- 11:46SPEAKER_01: And so that seems to be one of his core beliefs, and he's pretty much in an inflation hawk.
- 11:50SPEAKER_02: If you look at it, they're kind of working against your Donald Trump and Israel are attacking everyone, which is putting the price of oil up, which affects inflation big time because everything has to be transported.
- 11:59SPEAKER_01: Well, I mean, he was upset, Trump was upset about interest rates before the Iran war.
- 12:04SPEAKER_01: Like he he, you know, Bernanke, um, not Bernanke, but uh Jerome Powell from about you know when the when the war in Ukraine started and when then we had COVID, we were still the aftermath of COVID with supply chains being very, very sensitive.
- 12:18SPEAKER_01: Yeah and prices had just simply gone up.
- 12:20SPEAKER_01: And they had just done um, in my opinion, a masterful job of bringing inflation down slowly, uh, but not too, you know, not by hitting interest rates too high, but just being very deliberate.
- 12:31SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
- 12:31SPEAKER_01: Of course, that didn't do Kamal Harris any favors, you know.
- 12:35SPEAKER_01: And and this is this is the this is the dilemma, you know, the presidents have, like, you know, that what what the interests of the country in terms of inflation and the the political interests of the present are not always aligned.
- 12:47SPEAKER_01: Um you know, so I mean, just taking Greenspan, for example.
- 12:51SPEAKER_01: I mean, George Um Herbert Walker Bush, um, George W.'s dad, I mean, he was really upset with with Greenspan for for about two years.
- 13:00SPEAKER_01: He just couldn't get Greenspan to bring interest rates down after the Gulf War.
- 13:04SPEAKER_01: And uh he he he he largely blamed him for losing.
- 13:09SPEAKER_01: He felt he was a really, really, really big factor in him losing.
- 13:12SPEAKER_01: So um that's that's the tension that can that can happen.
- 13:17SPEAKER_01: The um one of the reasons Warsh left the Federal Reserve was just that quantitative easing, he just felt it had just been, you know, every time the baby's got a problem, giving a suitor, you know, this kind of this kind of thing of like quantitative easing in a long time, that's many years ago.
- 13:34SPEAKER_01: It's yeah, but there was there was like I said, there was two rounds, but one where it was justified and one where maybe less so.
- 13:39SPEAKER_01: And um, you know, he really feels, you know, I think he's he's he's quoted as saying that's um you know, or paraphrasing here, but that QE should be treated like emergency medicine, not a permanent lifestyle.
- 13:51SPEAKER_01: Um, you know, and and and he felt that what happens with that is if if Wall Street or the financial markets feel they're going to be bailed out no matter what they do, they'll keep taking risks, you know?
- 14:05SPEAKER_02: It's just history seems to show they're always bailed out.
- 14:07SPEAKER_01: I yeah, I mean, exactly.
- 14:09SPEAKER_01: You know, and and and you know, we're not talking an awful lot about regulation here, but I mean, because that's really the the securities and exchange commission in America, but it's hard to imagine that that that that they don't talk either, you know, and and that this financial crises are not new, like this like 2008's not the first one.
- 14:27SPEAKER_01: So uh and it's it's it's the financial system will take on more risks than it should if if they're let, you know.
- 14:34SPEAKER_01: So um, but anyway, he he he strongly feels that like you know if there's a crisis, they'll intervene.
- 14:40SPEAKER_01: If there's just a time when people would like some nice medicines and nice low interest rates, not good, it's not gonna do that.
- 14:46SPEAKER_01: Again, that would counter what Trump would want.
- 14:49SPEAKER_01: Um so you know, um things like the Federal Reserve balance sheet.
- 14:58SPEAKER_01: So when when the when the Fed took on all these crappy mortgage-related securities, who whose whose value really was was very low at the time, um, and gave them gave them cash.
- 15:11SPEAKER_01: They're now this is one really for the accountants, the the the assets of the Federal Reserve increased and so did its liabilities.
- 15:17SPEAKER_01: The liability being it was now issuing more cash.
- 15:20SPEAKER_01: So, you know, that's that's a liability the Federal Reserve.
- 15:23SPEAKER_01: The amount of cash in the system is a liability.
- 15:26SPEAKER_01: The Fed effectively owes that money.
- 15:28SPEAKER_01: Um you know, and they're they have been trying to shrink their balance sheet, which is a way of saying that like we'll you know, we'll take on a bond that has has eight years, but at the end of the eight years, the bond has expired.
- 15:44SPEAKER_01: So they're trying to it's it's it's I guess it's like an overweight person just trying to slim down.
- 15:49SPEAKER_01: And um he's he's very, very much in favour of that.
- 15:53SPEAKER_01: But by by by by slimming down, you're reducing the amount of money in the system.
- 15:58SPEAKER_01: And of course, that's effectively like tightening, tightening the money money supply.
- 16:03SPEAKER_01: And that can lead to not short-term interest rates, but it's more the longer-term ones, um, which dictate an awful lot of the price, the the price of debt in the economy.
- 16:12SPEAKER_01: So that that he's got to be careful with that, I think.
- 16:16SPEAKER_01: You know, that it doesn't overdo it.
- 16:19SPEAKER_01: Um another one that he you know he he he's very, very keen on is this whole idea of forward guidance.
- 16:28SPEAKER_01: And and forward guidance means that we we the Federal Reserve will give you an idea of where we're all headed, right?
- 16:36SPEAKER_01: We'll tell you that in about a year's time we expect to cut rates by a quarter.
- 16:40SPEAKER_01: Uh, six months after that, we'll go again.
- 16:42SPEAKER_01: So we're gonna tell you what's gonna happen, and so that becomes very, very predictable.
- 16:48SPEAKER_01: And um I remember doing a doing an advanced kind of economics course once where we had a lecturer who really disagreed with this and said that you're telling people what you're gonna do.
- 16:59SPEAKER_01: So you're kind of locked into that.
- 17:01SPEAKER_01: You're you're locked into that.
- 17:02SPEAKER_01: You you've lost the the the surprise factor.
- 17:06SPEAKER_02: Um and then if you say you're gonna do it, people expect you to do it.
- 17:11SPEAKER_02: They expect you to do it.
- 17:12SPEAKER_01: Except so so financial markets tend to tend to respond.
- 17:16SPEAKER_01: I there was a there was a company the other day, I think it was Alphabet.
- 17:19SPEAKER_01: I think it was Alphabet or Google, um, had had just had a particularly bad uh set of results.
- 17:25SPEAKER_01: And the the markets tend to overreact to unexpected news, yeah, whether it's good or bad.
- 17:31SPEAKER_01: You know, and so he would very like to see this whole area of telling the world where we're going, he was like, You want to get rid of that completely.
- 17:37SPEAKER_01: It's just like this is what we've done today.
- 17:40SPEAKER_01: We'll talk to you in three months, yeah.
- 17:42SPEAKER_01: You know, and and and keep it to that.
- 17:44SPEAKER_01: Like, you know, so um of the previous kind of chairman, you know, Jerome Powell or Ben Bernanke was there for the 2008, and Greenspan obviously was quite famous there for a long time.
- 17:54SPEAKER_01: He's probably more like Greenspan than anyone than anyone else.
- 17:57SPEAKER_01: Um, Bernanke was an academic who was an expert in the Great Depression, and like I said, I think we were just very, very lucky to have him there at the right time, yeah.
- 18:05SPEAKER_01: You know, so again, it's it's it's I think there's a perception that the the head of the Federal Reserve is, you know, he can do everything.
- 18:14SPEAKER_01: He's certainly very, very influential.
- 18:17SPEAKER_01: But I think Kevin Morris is gonna have to work with his team of governors, you know, who must be thinking, well, you know, practically Donald Trump is set is now in the room, you know, and he's gonna I think he's gonna have to show himself to be independent of Trump, and I think he's gonna be the on the end of an awful lot of criticism from Trump, you know.
- 18:37SPEAKER_02: Yeah, and uh it depends of any allies he has on the the governors as well, doesn't it?
- 18:41SPEAKER_01: Depends on so he's his his politicking is going to be you know very, very important.
- 18:45SPEAKER_01: But he was on the Federal Reserve for five years.
- 18:47SPEAKER_01: He has seen, you know, they talk about soldiers seeing action, you know, he has seen serious action in terms of 2008.
- 18:53SPEAKER_01: He was, you know, he was a special advisor to George W.
- 18:56SPEAKER_01: Bush, which would give him a huge insight into how government works.
- 18:59SPEAKER_01: So he he was you know, he was there for the Bear Stearns disaster, Lehman Brothers.
- 19:03SPEAKER_01: Um, AIG, I mean AIG nearly went hit the wall in 2008.
- 19:07SPEAKER_01: I mean which the size of them as the insurance an insurance company their size collapsing would have been just unimaginable.
- 19:14SPEAKER_01: So he has all the experience, and I suppose but I guess we'll find out what kind of uh what kind of governor he's going to be.
- 19:20SPEAKER_02: Yeah, and hopefully Trump doesn't mess him up too much.
- 19:23SPEAKER_01: Well, whether he can or can't, he can certainly hurl insults at him, but you yeah, I think Trump's put him there, and that's uh sure Trump might change it to the Donald Trump Federal Reserve.
- 19:33SPEAKER_01: Donald Trump rename it, yeah, like he does with everything.
- 19:36SPEAKER_01: So I think we could probably we could probably wrap it there.
- 19:38SPEAKER_01: Uh thanks very much, Marcus, for your for your time today.
- 19:41SPEAKER_01: Yeah, and everyone else.
- 19:41SPEAKER_01: Thank you for listening.
- 19:42SPEAKER_01: And uh any comments, please put them on below, and we'll see you next time.
- 19:46SPEAKER_02: Talk to you soon.