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Daniel Davis Deep Dive · Brian Thomas

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  Speaker 1: The talk station A twenty eight to fifty five care
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  Speaker 1: see the talks tod Asia and on a Tuesday, it
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  Speaker 1: means it's time for the Daniel Davis Deep Dive. Retire
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  Speaker 1: Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Davis providing his outstanding war analysis, most
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  Speaker 1: notably been dealing with the Russia, or rather the situation
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  Speaker 1: between Iran, Israel and the United States. But let me
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  Speaker 1: just dive on over and see if we can't get
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  Speaker 1: an update on what's going on with the Ukraine. Welcome
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  Speaker 1: back to the Morning Show, Daniel Davis, my friend, it's
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  Speaker 1: always a pleasure to have you on.
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  Speaker 2: Always a pleasure to be here, Brian, thanks for having me.
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  Speaker 1: I saw and I find it hard to believe and
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  Speaker 1: I don't know what your reaction is. The Russian Ukraine
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  Speaker 1: quote unquote war has been going on. We're in a
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  Speaker 1: fifth year now. I mean, if you were a betting
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  Speaker 1: man back when this thing first, when the conflict first started,
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  Speaker 1: would you have ever thought it would last five years?
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  Speaker 1: Daniel Davis, No, not a chance.
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  Speaker 3: In fact, after I think the first year and a
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  Speaker 3: half or so went about as one might expect, and
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  Speaker 3: after the Ukraine side tried their big, huge offensive in
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  Speaker 3: the summer of twenty twenty three, and that failed, and
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  Speaker 3: then Russia turned back to the offensive. I thought maybe
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  Speaker 3: another year that that's about all, though, because they had
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  Speaker 3: spent all their offensive power the Ukraine side did. They
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  Speaker 3: didn't have any offensive capability left.
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  Speaker 2: So down it's a.
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  Speaker 3: Defensive and you can't win a war only on the defensive.
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  Speaker 3: But they have survived. The drones, of course, have had
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  Speaker 3: a big reason to slow down the Russian side, but
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  Speaker 3: it's also been because the Russians have been incredibly risk
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  Speaker 3: averse and they have not pressed their advantage. They have
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  Speaker 3: not attempted a large scale offensive that might break through
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  Speaker 3: thin lines, and there are plenty of places where the
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  Speaker 3: lines are thin. There's many theories as to why they
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  Speaker 3: haven't done that, but the fact is they haven't done it,
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  Speaker 3: and the war does continue on, and I think problem
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  Speaker 3: as you're alluded to, there's been increasing strikes by the weast,
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  Speaker 3: by Ukraine deeper into Russia, and apparently there was a
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  Speaker 3: British storm shadow overnight and Putin's comments this morning are
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  Speaker 3: that he is apparently at the press mipice of saying,
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  Speaker 3: all right, I'm just gonna have to acknowledge he said
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  Speaker 3: this out loud in public that this is now the
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  Speaker 3: NATO directly intervening and fighting on the behalf of Ukraine
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  Speaker 3: in this war, and we may have to take appropriate actions.
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  Speaker 3: I think we should not dismiss that claim, especially if
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  Speaker 3: it's blocked up with action.
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  Speaker 2: I am concerned about it.
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  Speaker 1: I'll tell you, okay, And in this particular circumstance, what
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  Speaker 1: would appropriate actions be or what do you think Putin
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  Speaker 1: has in mind when he makes those utterances, Because I
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  Speaker 1: guess I have to observe from a military perspective, if
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  Speaker 1: we're still five years between Russia and Ukraine in a conflict,
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  Speaker 1: I think granted, the Ukraine is backed by a lot
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  Speaker 1: of munitions from the West, but with no demonstrable additional progress.
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  Speaker 1: If I can be so perjorative about my understanding where
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  Speaker 1: we are with that one, how the hell could they
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  Speaker 1: take on NATO?
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  Speaker 3: Well, a couple of things that's not commonly understood. And
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  Speaker 3: then some people actually don't even acknowledge this. But when
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  Speaker 3: you look at what has been reported both in Russian media,
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  Speaker 3: Ukraine media, and American media and released by intelligence sources,
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  Speaker 3: is that the Russians in twenty twenty three especially really
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  Speaker 3: ramped up their defense industrial capacity and started just cranking
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  Speaker 3: out big time numbers of drones, of missiles, or more
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  Speaker 3: artillery pieces, more artillery shells, et cetera. And then you
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  Speaker 3: look at how many they actually used on the front line.
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  Speaker 3: This is why I say they have not really pushed
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  Speaker 3: hard on the front lines.
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  Speaker 2: They have not launched a big.
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  Speaker 3: Offensive, but their production capacity has continued to rise. All
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  Speaker 3: of the key weapon systems, whether that's the Kinshal missiles,
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  Speaker 3: the kh one on ones now the Rushtanic missiles, and
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  Speaker 3: certainly all the categories of drones, they've been stockpiling them
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  Speaker 3: because they have been perceiving. People have been telling me
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  Speaker 3: this for years from the Russian side that they're saying, hey,
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  Speaker 3: we think that there's going to end up being a war.
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  Speaker 2: Between US and NATO because NATO is saying it.
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  Speaker 3: NATO is saying that there's going to be war with
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  Speaker 3: Russia bout twenty thirty, So Russia actually was preparing Meanwhile
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  Speaker 3: NATO has not been. So when you look at the
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  Speaker 3: weapons stockpiles, and we're talking offensive and defensive MEP weapons
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  Speaker 3: ours continue have just dwindled every year and Russians have comecreased.
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  Speaker 3: So specifically to your question, what Russia has been signaling
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  Speaker 3: of late, and some have even been saying out loud
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  Speaker 3: on the Russian side in public, is that they say, hey,
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  Speaker 3: it's time to take this fight to the people who
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  Speaker 3: are supporting this war. And that means that Western organizations
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  Speaker 3: and Western factories where they make these drums, where they
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  Speaker 3: make these rocket motors, where they have anything to do
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  Speaker 3: with providing capabilities to the Ukraine side against Russians to
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  Speaker 3: kill Russian soldiers, they say it's time to strike back
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  Speaker 3: at those. And it could be that put Putin has
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  Speaker 3: come under a lot of pressure internally, by the way,
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  Speaker 3: for not doing these things, and now he could be
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  Speaker 3: because of these big The Ukraine side struck Saint Petersburg
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  Speaker 3: during a big economic thing, and that embarrassed Putin that
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  Speaker 3: he's been striking Moscow.
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  Speaker 2: Zelinsky has been mocking.
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  Speaker 3: Trump to his face just yesterday saying Moscow is going
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  Speaker 3: to burn threatening stuff, and people on the Russian side
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  Speaker 3: are saying, who's the stronger.
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  Speaker 2: When he or are you going to do something or not?
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  Speaker 3: This may ironically push Russia into striking into Western Europe.
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  Speaker 2: And I don't have to tell you article five what
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  Speaker 2: that might mean.
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  Speaker 1: Yes, it does mean we would be involved in that
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  Speaker 1: move most likely would be World War three scary proposition.
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  Speaker 1: What of the ceasefire though, that's being discussed. I know
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  Speaker 1: the Ukrainians, I think they need the UN Security Council
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  Speaker 1: to adopt a resolution for full and unconditional ceasefire. But
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  Speaker 1: are the Russians open to discuss a ceasefire and perhaps
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  Speaker 1: a resolution along the de facto front line, which means
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  Speaker 1: you have to concede the territory that Russia has already
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  Speaker 1: taken over. I mean, if that's a starting point for negotiations,
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  Speaker 1: how much more does Russia actually want in order to
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  Speaker 1: call this conflict over and resolved? And is there of hope?
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  Speaker 3: Russia's been crystal clear really from the outset of this,
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  Speaker 3: but certainly since June of twenty twenty four, that it's
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  Speaker 3: all four of the areas that they annexed in twenty
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  Speaker 3: twenty two, which is Zaparijia, Kirsten, Luhanskin, Netsk, And that
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  Speaker 3: means solid chunks, especially of the southern two provinces that
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  Speaker 3: they have not captured. And they say, yeah, as soon
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  Speaker 3: as you withdraw from those areas and leave and then
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  Speaker 3: we'll go and take it, then yew we can start talking.
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  Speaker 3: But Russia has never changed their mind that they will
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  Speaker 3: not move, They will not start with the current line
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  Speaker 3: of contact because they said the whether any of us
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  Speaker 3: agree or not doesn't matter. They said, we wrote into
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  Speaker 3: our constitution that all four of those are Russian territories
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  Speaker 3: and we can't just give it away, and we're not
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  Speaker 3: going to. So Zelensky has been pushing really hard for
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  Speaker 3: making the current line of contact as the de facto
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  Speaker 3: border and then we'll start talking from there, and Russia says, yeah,
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  Speaker 3: you can talk all day long. That's not even on
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  Speaker 3: the table for us. So that is a Western narrative,
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  Speaker 3: of a Ukraine narrative. It's not anything that Russians are
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  Speaker 3: even contemplating, at least not publicly.
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  Speaker 2: Hmmm.
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  Speaker 1: I don't know why. It seems to me some parallels
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  Speaker 1: could be drawn to that conflict, and of course the
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  Speaker 1: situation right now with the Iranians in the United States.
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  Speaker 1: I guess I should have asked you at the outset,
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  Speaker 1: is the strain of horror moves open right now? Daniel Davis,
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  Speaker 1: because it seems to change every couple of minutes. I've
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  Speaker 1: lost track.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, I literally checked just before we came on the
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  Speaker 3: air here to see what some of these trackers are saying,
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  Speaker 3: and it is it's going up and down and up
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  Speaker 3: and down. Two days ago, even though we were told
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  Speaker 3: oil is gushing out of it from certain sources here
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  Speaker 3: in the west, five tankers went out that day, so
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  Speaker 3: not exactly a gush. But this morning, as of the
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  Speaker 3: last twenty four hours, measured this morning at our time,
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  Speaker 3: it's up to nearly a third, so that's a pretty
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  Speaker 3: substantially escale advancement of what it was. Is thirty semi tanks.
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  Speaker 3: Normally it was between one hundred and one hundred and
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  Speaker 3: thirty to day's pre war. Apparently it's in the thirties
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  Speaker 3: right now in the last twenty four hours, so that's
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  Speaker 3: positive thing. The Treasury Department issued sanctions waivers, so a
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  Speaker 3: bunch of uk of Iranian flag tankers or on their
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  Speaker 3: side for their customers, have been rolling out pretty soon.
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  Speaker 3: I will caution though, there's this claim that you know,
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  Speaker 3: there's we are almost back to pre war levels.
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  Speaker 2: There's no truth to that.
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  Speaker 3: What you have seen, and even these thirty are things
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  Speaker 3: that have just been floating around on the gulf all
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  Speaker 3: this time, all these three four months, and now then
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  Speaker 3: they're coming out. The oil in the producing countries though,
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  Speaker 3: is only just now starting to try and turn back on.
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  Speaker 2: We don't even know how that's going to work. It's
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  Speaker 2: called shut in oil.
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  Speaker 3: They're now starting that process to see are they going
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  Speaker 3: to be able to produce, and they can't even start
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  Speaker 3: producing until they get all those tankers out and get
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  Speaker 3: new empty ones in there because they still don't have
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  Speaker 3: anywhere to store the oil. So it doesn't matter as
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  Speaker 3: much now as if the Gulf is actually open. Is
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  Speaker 3: it matters how much oil and gas can come out,
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  Speaker 3: and that is still a long way away.
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  Speaker 2: Well.
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  Speaker 1: A disturbing element of this opening up the Straight of
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  Speaker 1: Hormones seems to me that the Iranians are requiring forty
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  Speaker 1: eight hours advanced notice to go through the strait, and
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  Speaker 1: then also that the ships acquire Iranian insurance, which is
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  Speaker 1: currently not an enforceable provision, but it's a wave, it's
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  Speaker 1: a fee that's going to be waved now. But ultimately
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  Speaker 1: that seems to me that they're going to start charging
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  Speaker 1: tolls to get through the Straight of Horror Moves, and
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  Speaker 1: the Straight of Horror Moves is no longer going to
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  Speaker 1: be an international waterway with free flow of ships. Daniel
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  Speaker 1: Davis that that isn't one you can put in the
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  Speaker 1: win column.
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  Speaker 3: Well, no, President Trump categorically said was about three days ago.
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  Speaker 3: I guess in a true social Iran will not charge.
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  Speaker 2: A fee for the sixty days, and Iran.
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  Speaker 3: Will not charge a fee after the sixty days. That's
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  Speaker 3: what he said. That's not what's in the MoU. What's
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  Speaker 3: in the MoU that he signed is that Iran will
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  Speaker 3: not take charge a fee. Only that word is in
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  Speaker 3: the text only for sixty days. And then it says
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  Speaker 3: they're going to work. Then it says Oman and Iran
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  Speaker 3: will determine the administrative discussion after that with conversations with
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  Speaker 3: other GCC countries.
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  Speaker 2: We're not even in the text. We're not even part
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  Speaker 2: of that discussion.
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  Speaker 3: Disgotiation and Iran Foreign ministry yesterday and I think golly
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  Speaker 3: Boff also went to Oman in a very public meeting
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  Speaker 3: that they're discussing how they are going to administer the
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  Speaker 3: Gulf after this sixty days. So right now it is
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  Speaker 3: definitely on a trend that they're going to control it
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  Speaker 3: and they are going to charge a fee, according to
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  Speaker 3: what they're saying out loud.
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  Speaker 1: Well and I've noted from the outset that neither Hesbala
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  Speaker 1: or Israel, or Lebanon or even signatories to this memorandum
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  Speaker 1: of understanding. Yet the memorandum also contemplates issues going on
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  Speaker 1: in Lebanon, and clearly we have the Israelis shooting at
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  Speaker 1: the Hesbala and Hesbala shooting at the Israelis. And I
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  Speaker 1: been sitting over here just sort of scratching my head wondering, well,
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  Speaker 1: how in the hell can we bind Israel to anything
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  Speaker 1: if they're not a party to the agreement.
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  Speaker 2: So, Brian, I'll.
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  Speaker 3: Tell you that, to me is one of the most
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  Speaker 3: major and underrecognized failures of this entire diplomatic process is
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  Speaker 3: that we took a three way war US, Israel and Iran,
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  Speaker 3: and we did a two way negotiated.
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  Speaker 2: Memorandum that we didn't even include.
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  Speaker 3: Not only did we not include the Israeli side in,
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  Speaker 3: and according to published reports, they weren't even where the
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  Speaker 3: terms of it until it went public.
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  Speaker 2: So now then we're demanding.
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  Speaker 3: That they adhere to our what we've agreed to, and
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  Speaker 3: they weren't even part of the discussion. And listen, you
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  Speaker 3: know I've said many times in here, I've got a
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  Speaker 3: lot of problems with some of the things the IDF
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  Speaker 3: does and the decisions that they have, But man, if
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  Speaker 3: you don't even include them in the process, how can
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  Speaker 3: you possibly expect them to abide about what you say?
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  Speaker 3: When the Israeli side has gone overboard to say this
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  Speaker 3: is a direct national security issue for our country, There's
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  Speaker 3: no way in hell this is Israel cast the Defense Minister,
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  Speaker 3: Benjaminette and Yahoo. In fact, even if Tlly Bennett, who
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  Speaker 3: wants to be the next prime minister, he was blasting
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  Speaker 3: those two guys for not going harder now. So the
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  Speaker 3: only debate in the Israeli side is how hard are
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  Speaker 3: we going to go in not whether we're going to
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  Speaker 3: keep fighting in Lebanon. And I don't know how you
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  Speaker 3: square that circle, because I don't see any chance that
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  Speaker 3: that's going to work out in the near term. For
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  Speaker 3: this MoU and for Park Comedy on this topic, Daniel
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  Speaker 3: Davis Iran says, it's some of its frozen assets have
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  Speaker 3: been released, and some are speculating that's a six billion
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  Speaker 3: dollars cutter is holding. But if released though, jad Vance said, hey, hey,
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  Speaker 3: they can only buy food, medicine and the like with that,
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  Speaker 3: But My view of money is it's fungible. It all
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  Speaker 3: ultimately is in one big pile. And that you segregated
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  Speaker 3: some number of billions of dollars that they must use
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  Speaker 3: for only humanitarian supply, that just frees up any other
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  Speaker 3: money that they would have spent on the humanitarian relief
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  Speaker 3: there in their own country to buy whatever they want,
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  Speaker 3: including supporting rebels and Hezbala and buying missiles and weapons,
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  Speaker 3: et cetera. So this gives them an opportunity to rebuild
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  Speaker 3: their military, doesn't it.
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  Speaker 2: Listen.
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  Speaker 3: I fact, I think that this is well, the fees
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  Speaker 3: are probably going to be ended up doing that in
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  Speaker 3: this again, don't forget this three hundred billion dollar reconstruction
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  Speaker 3: investment fund.
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  Speaker 2: That's that's even separate from what you're talking about there.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, but I think that this is just a narrative
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  Speaker 3: to try and save the thoughts of many in America
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  Speaker 3: who are just absolutely beside themselves that we're going to,
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  Speaker 3: you know, give anything to the arranged side, which of
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  Speaker 3: course it's not. It's their money, we're just unfreezing it.
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  Speaker 3: But look, that's what Vice President is saying. But the
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  Speaker 3: Iranians this morning are saying, what are you talking about
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  Speaker 3: we didn't agree to any of that, and you can
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  Speaker 3: even tell when it was claimed. A lot of the
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  Speaker 3: people are saying, well, yeah, Mike Waltz was on TV
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  Speaker 3: last night and he was asking about this, and he said, listen,
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  Speaker 3: you know this is a great idea. It was Jared
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  Speaker 3: Kushner came with the idea and terrific. You talked to Qatar.
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  Speaker 3: But if you don't get buy in immediately from the
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  Speaker 3: Iranian side and they have some kind of agreement to
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  Speaker 3: do this, and I cannot imagine them agreeing that you're
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  Speaker 3: gonna dictate is the word Mike Waltz used last night,
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  Speaker 3: dictate to a run how they're going to spend their
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  Speaker 3: money and where they're going to buy stuff. That just
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  Speaker 3: seems like you're barking up the wrong tree. I don't
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  Speaker 3: see how that's going to work out either.
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  Speaker 1: I don't understand how you could possibly trace all the
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: dollars and really know ultimately where they're being spent. Anyway,
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  Speaker 1: they've been able to avoid Yeah, they've been able to
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  Speaker 1: avoid the oil sanctions by continuing to sell oil to
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: China all throughout this entire process. So anyhow, Hey, oh
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  Speaker 1: and finally, I suppose they need to observe that really
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  Speaker 1: no agreement on the nuclear material that's there. Some suggested
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: that they were going to allow international inspectors to go
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: back in, and that sounded like a good thing perhaps,
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  Speaker 1: but then the Iranians come back the next day and say,
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  Speaker 1: we never agreed to that.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah.
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  Speaker 3: In fact, they said after the meeting, like right after
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  Speaker 3: this eighteen hour period when Jadevance was making his statements,
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  Speaker 3: there was an Iranian of their Foreign ministry spokesman by guy.
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  Speaker 3: He came out and said, we discussed the nuclear issue.
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  Speaker 3: We made out, We laid out our position, they laid
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  Speaker 3: out their position, but there was no negotiations.
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  Speaker 2: That won't happen until these other issues. These first these.
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  Speaker 3: Five paragraphs in here about sanctions, relief, frozen funds, opening
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  Speaker 3: the straight and all that, once those are settled, will
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  Speaker 3: start that process. And then we announced that there was
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  Speaker 3: an agreement on this issue you just mentioned here and
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  Speaker 3: the arrangement that said, yet there's not.
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  Speaker 2: So we keep having a lot of that.
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  Speaker 1: A lot, and that's been going on for quite some time.
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  Speaker 1: Daniel Davis Deep Dive find the podcast where we get
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: your podcasts. Great stuff. Daniel, appreciate you coming to the
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  Speaker 1: program and talking about it, and we'll keep our fingers
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  Speaker 1: crossed for positive developments by next week. Keep our hopes
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  Speaker 1: up anyway,