Latest / Strictly Business / The 5 o' Clock Shadow with David Shapiro and Viv Govender
Transcript
- 0:00You're listening to Strictly Business Podcast with Lindsay Williams.
- 0:05The JSC has closed its doors for another day, so it's time for the 5 o'clock
- 0:08shadow.
- 0:08And as always on a Thursday, I have the doubleheader dream team edition of Viv
- 0:14Govender from the award-winning
- 0:16Rand Swiss and David Shapiro from Sasson Securities.
- 0:18And David Shapiro is award-winning.
- 0:20I suppose the two go together.
- 0:22David, I'm going to have to start with you today because...
- 0:25You're not in Johannesburg, you're in New York.
- 0:27And I worried about you on Monday because of the blizzard situation on the northeast
- 0:32coast.
- 0:34How did it affect you?
- 0:36Because Aviv and I live our traveling lives vicariously through you.
- 0:38Well, we were the first plane, I flew from London, I flew to London,
- 0:42and we were the first plane that they allowed to land on Tuesday morning.
- 0:48And they only opened up the, this is New York, they only opened up the airport at
- 0:5412 and we came in like, you know.
- 0:56quarter past 20 past 12.
- 0:58So there were some others circling.
- 1:00The airport was quite empty.
- 1:01We got through customs and everything.
- 1:03In fact, the poor taxi driver,
- 1:05he had brought someone to the airport at nine o'clock and had to wait almost three
- 1:12hours to get a journey back,
- 1:14you know, to collect a fare back.
- 1:15So, and planes only started to take off there.
- 1:18But flying from London, you over the US coming around.
- 1:24what would be the northeast Boston and that you just looked on the ground and you
- 1:31saw this absolute blanket of
- 1:33white and you know it's now Thursday it's still very cold the snow is still around
- 1:38makes it very dangerous to walk but this is going to last I think for another week
- 1:45before you start to see the melt so
- 1:47yeah it's it's for for people like Viv and myself you know who are not used to this
- 1:51kind of weather.
- 1:53It's a big change.
- 1:55You know, every step, you've got to be careful.
- 1:56I went out this morning.
- 1:57I wasn't going to run.
- 1:58I went walking.
- 1:59Yeah.
- 1:59But it's so dangerous.
- 2:02But Central Park must be beautiful, David.
- 2:05I had a friend who got stuck there, and she wanted to come back as soon as
- 2:12possible because she's got a young child,
- 2:14and she was missing the thing.
- 2:14And I can understand that.
- 2:16But I would imagine that to be stuck in New York during this snowy period for a
- 2:23young, fit person must be fantastic.
- 2:25Fantastic.
- 2:27No, it was beautiful.
- 2:29Central Park is beautiful.
- 2:31You know,
- 2:33the one thing that impresses me is that how quickly workers come out and
- 2:36put salt on the road and clear the snow.
- 2:39And, you know, literally within hours, not even, within minutes of a snowfall, they
- 2:46clear the roads.
- 2:48One of the big problems is that people park on the side.
- 2:49and when you clear with a...
- 2:51with a front-end loader, you know, the snow's got to go somewhere.
- 2:55So they just pile it on the cars and say, you're toughies, you know, we told you to
- 2:59move your cars.
- 3:01So they get stuck in.
- 3:03They're literally stuck in the snow, you know, on the side of the road.
- 3:05I saw a very good CNN piece this morning of exactly that, and a chap was walking
- 3:10along thinking, you know,
- 3:12I've almost got to work or to the shop or something, and along comes a snowplough,
- 3:16bush, a wall of snow whacked him over.
- 3:18But anyway, let's not talk about that.
- 3:20Viv, NVIDIA's numbers, what did you make of them?
- 3:23Spectacular, but not good enough.
- 3:26That's pretty much what it was.
- 3:27They were incredible numbers.
- 3:29I mean, this company has a 70-something percent profit margin,
- 3:32making unbelievable amounts of money each quarter.
- 3:38And the market today is pretty down 3.5%.
- 3:43It is basically as good as you could imagine, beat estimates, et cetera.
- 3:49But, you know, again, the market had put in so much, you know, in terms of
- 3:55expectations into it that it was,
- 3:57you know, virtually impossible to beat it.
- 3:59Yeah.
- 4:00But also, it's not just the numbers that come out, as we as we well know, Viv, it's
- 4:06the outlook statement, the tone of it,
- 4:08the projections, how much they might make, how much they might not make.
- 4:11And I believe that must be the one that has knocked it three and a half percent.
- 4:15No, even the outlook was better than anticipated.
- 4:20They beat Q4 expectations for results and they give a better than expected outlook
- 4:27for Q1 of this year.
- 4:29The market, whatever the expectations you bring in there, the market is basically,
- 4:34it just was not in the mood,
- 4:36unless the results were even better than this to reward Nvidia.
- 4:40I do think that if you're looking at, look, here's the thing, $700 billion this
- 4:47year alone is being projected for Google.
- 4:49announced at least for Google, Amazon, Meta, etc.
- 4:51A lot of that money is going to go directly into NVIDIA's pockets.
- 4:54I think that is something to be looked at.
- 4:57It is going to be a very good year for NVIDIA, however you look at it.
- 5:01But even recently, we had AMD as well come out with an announcement that they would
- 5:07meta about meta taking on their chips.
- 5:09There is money around the whole ecosphere, but I think NVIDIA is still the front
- 5:11runner.
- 5:12I think because of the speed at which this stuff is going at, it's going to be very
- 5:18difficult for somebody to catch up and beat them at the moment.
- 5:20David, you find yourself in the camp of, yes, they were great numbers, but no, it's
- 5:24not good enough for me to hold on.
- 5:26So you trimmed your positions or did you look, as Viv did, in awe of these
- 5:30numerals?
- 5:32The whole year we've heard the same story, you know, and yet it just keeps creeping
- 5:37up, ratcheting and so on.
- 5:39So I'm not put off by it.
- 5:40You know, the market's a bit crazy at the moment.
- 5:43You don't know what they want.
- 5:45I don't know whether Viv saw it or whether you saw this, but...
- 5:49Over the weekend, there was this report that went viral from Citrini, I think.
- 5:55Yes, that's right.
- 5:56Research.
- 5:57I mean, it was one of these, you know, reporting on 20,
- 6:02I think called 2028 global intelligence crisis or something around that.
- 6:07And really saying, look, if this is really successful, what's going to happen?
- 6:10You're going to get this dystopia, you know, where markets going to crash because
- 6:17people are going to be.
- 6:19So many jobs will be lost and create unemployment, take down consumers and so
- 6:24on.
- 6:24I mean, just looking into so many years ahead,
- 6:30how many people did we have to read at the end of last year or during last year about
- 6:35the AI bubble?
- 6:37And it's going to crash and so on.
- 6:39So you get these views.
- 6:40And what was interesting, though, the market got very scared.
- 6:43And I know the Dow came crashing down on Monday and all other markets.
- 6:48And so we're in that mood.
- 6:50You know, I can't explain it.
- 6:52I just look through it and I just focus on what NVIDIA is doing, what kind of chips
- 6:58they're making, who they're selling to,
- 7:00and how the market reacts, the emotion of the market.
- 7:02You've just got to brush aside.
- 7:04I don't think you should also ignore the fact that the market had been pushing up
- 7:11NVIDIA ahead
- 7:13of its results.
- 7:15I mean, it closed at 195, I think, the night just before.
- 7:17its results in the early hours of the morning, in the aftermarket or the
- 7:24beforemarket, whichever it is,
- 7:26they pushed it up very close to 200.
- 7:27So to come down a little bit, I mean, okay, three and a half percent is a chunky
- 7:32number, but to bring it down,
- 7:34it's just giving up what it had gained.
- 7:34So I think it's another factor, and David, you would have seen this throughout your
- 7:41career, of a market being priced for perfection.
- 7:43So the line of least resistance for any stock in that sort of position the nvidia
- 7:47position is to the downside.
- 7:49Not to say that there's anything wrong with the stock.
- 7:49It's just that people have become too exuberant.
- 7:52Would you say that was a fair resume of what's happened?
- 7:57I don't even know.
- 7:58I don't know who is exuberant.
- 8:00I don't know who the people are.
- 8:02You know, most analysts that we talk to or speak to, you know, they sit admittedly,
- 8:08they go through the company and they're very bullish on it.
- 8:11And perhaps you'll find that they'll come out now and be biased.
- 8:14But you're dealing...
- 8:16You know, Lindsay, we're not dealing in the same world that I entered 50 odd years
- 8:21ago.
- 8:22Today, it's run by algorithms.
- 8:24It's run by traders.
- 8:25It's run, you know, and there's huge amounts of money behind those trades.
- 8:30And they play games.
- 8:31You know, they're the ones who kind of influence the market, but with talk, it's
- 8:38almost like propaganda.
- 8:40And you've got to see your way through that.
- 8:40But I've got no control.
- 8:42You know, we've got no control.
- 8:44They're a natural buyer.
- 8:45Those who are buying it for the longer term or trying to put it in a portfolio of
- 8:51growth stocks, we don't rule the markets.
- 8:53This is ruled minute by minute, day by day by hedge fund traders, you know, who
- 8:57really look,
- 8:59what's the trend going to be tomorrow?
- 8:59What's, you know, what story, what story can we pick up?
- 9:02So, and to a large extent, it's fed by the media as well.
- 9:06So, I'm not freaked out by this.
- 9:08We're still, even if you've held NVIDIA through all this trouble, All this talk
- 9:14about the end of AI.
- 9:16You still made 40% or 45% this year over a 12-month period.
- 9:19Okay, I can live with 45% increase.
- 9:23Especially when the 10-year bond is, what, 4%?
- 9:27Okay.
- 9:28Exactly.
- 9:29And if you'd been a clever hedge fund trader and got rid of some of the
- 9:35old-school tech stocks like Microsoft or IBM,
- 9:37both of which are in bear markets, and bought the AI stocks, then you're, you
- 9:40know.
- 9:40You're in Clover.
- 9:42Viv, I want to talk about something completely different.
- 9:44And you can tell me, Lindsay, I didn't have a look at them yesterday.
- 9:47So don't ask me about the results from Valterra, because I spoke to somebody
- 9:54yesterday who had and he said this is a money printing
- 9:56machine at the moment.
- 9:58It's fantastic news.
- 10:00Did you happen to look at a good old fashioned South African PGM producer
- 10:02yesterday, Viv?
- 10:04Yeah, look, I mean, we had a, I mean, one of the guys in the office had put on a
- 10:10pick for the stock about a week ago,
- 10:12and he was kind of celebrating yesterday, kind of, you know, saying how bullish it'd
- 10:15be.
- 10:16But look, yeah, the fact of the matter is we are seeing platinum prices come back,
- 10:22you know, quite dramatically.
- 10:24I mean, platinum is up, you know, doubling in price, palladium up 80% almost.
- 10:27And I do think that, you know, a lot of this is driven by the gold.
- 10:32movement.
- 10:33I mean, in the future, I think the other issues around platinum in the automobile
- 10:40sector being replaced, you know, with electric vehicles.
- 10:42But I do think at the moment, you know, would be the demand for gold as strong as
- 10:44it is.
- 10:44But the fact that I mean, platinum is, people don't realize that platinum is a
- 10:48much smaller amount of supply than gold.
- 10:50So if gold becomes significantly more valuable, if you just have to look at the
- 10:54amount of gold being used for jewelry, etc.
- 10:56And people start switching a part of that demand for gold, jewelry, platinum
- 11:00jewelry, because it's cheaper.
- 11:02in vertical commerce.
- 11:04And I think that in that scenario alone,
- 11:05it's a large enough demand to replace a lot of the capital legal vertical demand
- 11:12that's out there for platinum.
- 11:14So yeah, the results were great.
- 11:16And to be expected, I mean, we had the commodity prices rise as much as they did.
- 11:20And as I said to that person, I hope that South Africa takes full advantage of this,
- 11:26and I hope the companies don't go berserk and try and buy.
- 11:28obscure mines in Finland or Canada or somewhere like that with the money that
- 11:30they got.
- 11:31But they didn't.
- 11:31They paid a special dividend.
- 11:33They paid a very good ordinary dividend as well.
- 11:35And long may it continue.
- 11:36Speaking of South Africa, David, I know you've been on the Upper West Side this
- 11:43morning, having a bagel, having a coffee, reading the paper.
- 11:45So you won't have seen truest results.
- 11:47But the market seems to like them.
- 11:49I think they closed up about four and a third percent.
- 11:51And I'm happy.
- 11:53uh for truess and the retail sector and south africa and everything but i'm more
- 11:57happy for myself because it might claw me out
- 11:59of the bottom quartile of your crystal challenge because i put it in my in my in
- 12:04my picks i think you did as well
- 12:06i am i like well i i took clothing retailers i thought there had to be some
- 12:11kind of margin i
- 12:13mean some kind of comeback from these companies um i don't know whether i'm
- 12:18going to be right or wrong um
- 12:20In fact, to be honest, if you look at spa and you look at pick and pay and you look
- 12:24at some of the
- 12:24grocery retailers, that's where I, you know, that's always the safe haven.
- 12:28But having looked at spa and pick and pay, you know, maybe it is the time for some of
- 12:35the clothing retailers to come back.
- 12:37But I quickly looked at, you know, the numbers.
- 12:39I always look.
- 12:39I just looked at the headlines and I saw that the earnings were up or headline
- 12:45earnings around about 1%.
- 12:47So I'm not quite sure.
- 12:48whether this is far greater than the market was expecting.
- 12:51But, I mean, it does give you an idea of what a tough time these companies are
- 12:55going through.
- 12:56So I think one has to go through this in great detail.
- 13:00And maybe if the growth did come, maybe it came from their offshore businesses.
- 13:05I'm not sure.
- 13:06I've got to go through this in a little more detail.
- 13:09It did come out quite late, I think, just as the market was closing.
- 13:12You know, there's one thing I wanted to say on Veltira.
- 13:16I mean the results were spectacular and absolutely incredible but if you want to
- 13:22understand the platinum markets or these
- 13:24markets we're far from an all-time high oh yeah there's way there's way to go yeah
- 13:31if you go back 22 mom was a lot higher you know all the way back to 21 and so on so i
- 13:38mean we
- 13:38had some very bleak years between 22 all the way to claw your way back in and i
- 13:44always say
- 13:45An old saying that I picked up on the exchange, you know, you buy in these kind
- 13:51of booms and you have to wait for the next boom to get your money back.
- 13:53And I mean, it's typical.
- 13:55It's something we used to say about the mining markets.
- 13:56And it's typical in this situation where you have this credible boom in 21, 22 and,
- 14:03you know, where platinum prices went up through the roof and we're back where we
- 14:07are.
- 14:07In fact, I don't even think the platinum price reached where it is now, but or more
- 14:11or less.
- 14:11But, you know, this is this is the.
- 14:13nature of those markets is that you've always got to be careful these prices
- 14:20don't always hold unless there is
- 14:22genuinely uh demand you know a huge demand for the underlying metal and i'm not sure
- 14:27that's coming back in
- 14:29order catalyst or anything like this that's why that's why i speculation yeah
- 14:34that's why i say david they have to take advantage of it and not not
- 14:36get silly about it because it's so cyclical and it's very fleeting as well i
- 14:40mean it can be a couple of years but than just at the top.
- 14:42People start to get really frothy about it, and that's when the trouble starts.
- 14:47Sorry, Viv, I'll come to you in a second.
- 14:49I've got to do some reminiscing here.
- 14:50I always think when I see results like that, and I look at the PGMs doing what
- 14:56they're doing at the moment, David,
- 14:58I always think of Wayne McCurry because he sort of retired just before the really big
- 15:02boom,
- 15:02and he was always, every time I spoke to him every Wednesday, he would talk
- 15:07about...
- 15:07the platinum stocks and really sort of champing at the bit waiting for this.
- 15:11I'm sure he might have a small interest himself, but yeah.
- 15:17Who was I going to talk to?
- 15:18Oh, yes, David, very quickly, Salesforce, please, because their numbers came out,
- 15:24didn't they?
- 15:24I know this.
- 15:24Their concern is that this is taking a little longer than everybody thought for
- 15:31businesses,
- 15:33enterprises to adopt AI and for them to get their business ready to do this.
- 15:36It's another one that I've got to go through in detail because I see this
- 15:42morning competitors like ServiceNow
- 15:44and others in that area are actually up this morning quite.
- 15:47quite nicely, but not Salesforce.
- 15:49So, you know, in that area, Snowflake, ServiceNow, Constellation Software,
- 15:57all of those are doing better this morning, up three for 4% and so on.
- 16:01So, you know, in that, but in fact, Salesforce is up 3% this morning.
- 16:07I didn't know it.
- 16:08Can you believe it?
- 16:09So there you are.
- 16:11There are videos down 3%, which should be up 3%.
- 16:15And Salesforce, which will be down 3%, is up 3%.
- 16:18So you explain that.
- 16:19I'm going to ask Viv.
- 16:20That's for Viv to explain to us, you see.
- 16:22Yeah, Viv, there's your invitation.
- 16:24He's a mathematician, the scientist.
- 16:28Yeah, well, Viv, you've got to explain that, please.
- 16:32I saw this great interview with Jensen Wong, and he said,
- 16:36imagine if you hired a genius to come to your office, right?
- 16:40And he was also basically really skilled at a bunch of different programming
- 16:47languages, a bunch of different software tools,
- 16:49you'd think you'd spend less or more on software.
- 16:51The answer is you'd spend more.
- 16:53If you had a master carpenter come into your workplace,
- 16:58do you think you'd spend more or less on woodworking tools?
- 17:03You'd spend more.
- 17:04And he says, if AI comes agentic, like we're talking about, you won't expect them
- 17:11to go out and basically remake every single tool out there,
- 17:13because it'll cost you too much, or it'll be not as good as the...
- 17:14the bespoke or the stuff already made out by the public large corporations but
- 17:21rather ai would be very very good at
- 17:23using these tools and in that scenario why wouldn't you basically buy all the tools
- 17:28possible if you
- 17:30have an ai system that you basically have on your local computer that is capable of
- 17:34using any software out there uh
- 17:36to a level of expert level wouldn't you buy a lot more software you know what i
- 17:40mean and
- 17:42that made me think that yeah there is probably a lot of opportunity even for
- 17:45these companies like you know salesforce and all
- 17:47the other guys out there maybe they don't have you know some of the
- 17:49like the cutting edge stuff out there but if they are tools and they are tools
- 17:56because humans use them to basically make themselves more productive
- 17:58if an air comes along and doesn't go to the entire trouble of writing the whole
- 18:04tool set from scratch up again which is like unlikely to
- 18:06happen that is going to be a great deal more in demand because the ai is going to
- 18:09be much much
- 18:11better at using the tools even if you can't write the whole thing from scratch.
- 18:13And that means that more people are going to find uses for these big software
- 18:17packages out there.
- 18:19And so I do think that's a thing that the market may be overlooking at the moment.
- 18:22Very good point indeed.
- 18:23Make another very good point with your analytical brain very briefly about
- 18:28yesterday's budget.
- 18:30I switch off from the budget now because South African budgets have either been
- 18:34depressing or boring or both in the past.
- 18:36But this one, a little bit more upbeat, Viv.
- 18:38Yeah, brilliant budget.
- 18:40uh compared to what we had the last couple times uh a couple interesting things i
- 18:46mean the jump up we saw in the tax free savings amount i mean from
- 18:4836 to 46 firstly i mean we have debit orders you know that's a horrible number
- 18:52to divide by 12.
- 18:54you know what i mean and the second thing is that
- 18:59uh well with regards to uh the brackets slightly improved but i mean we still
- 19:06haven't taken up the full impact of what we
- 19:08have in the past uh An interesting move with regards to the VAT number,
- 19:13which is quite a big jump up there.
- 19:16I do think that overall, it is a little haphazard what was improved,
- 19:21but it was basically across the board improvements.
- 19:24And the only thing I have is this, I don't know how sustainable it is.
- 19:28Firstly, the two things they put forward as what caused this to be improved was
- 19:34number one, better SARS collection.
- 19:36But there's only so much you can, if you have like 100 million that you old and you
- 19:41get like 98 million, you're looking up to 100 million.
- 19:43You can't go beyond 100 million unless the economy grows.
- 19:43So there's a limit to how much SARS can improve to raise revenue.
- 19:47The second thing is, of course, the commodity boom helping us out as well.
- 19:50And again, that's temporary.
- 19:52So until we see the underlying economy improve dramatically, I'm a bit worried
- 19:56about it.
- 19:56But this budget was, I think, reasonably good,
- 20:02even in terms of what actually improved by as much as they did.
- 20:05Very good.
- 20:06Before I get to the numbers, David, just a quick one on Discovery, please.
- 20:10Share price up 8.5% today.
- 20:12What are they doing right?
- 20:13Did you have a chance to glance at the headline of that one?
- 20:15Well, the headlines are in the UK.
- 20:19They seem to be making a lot of headway in the UK, and that's growing.
- 20:24And the other one was the bank, a turnaround in the bank.
- 20:27I like to go through those numbers in great detail.
- 20:30Again, I haven't had a chance to do that.
- 20:32Simply because of the seven-hour difference that we have.
- 20:35But I always like to do that.
- 20:37I like to do it with process and NASPERS.
- 20:41And this is another one where you actually break down the visions and you see what's
- 20:48actually contributing to the bottom
- 20:50line.
- 20:52So one's got to understand that.
- 20:52But the market likes it.
- 20:53I mean, the share price has done incredibly well.
- 20:56There is progress.
- 20:57I can't deny that.
- 20:59But, you know, what kind of progress is, that's what we've got to analyze.
- 21:03But I see the market up around about 8%.
- 21:07Lindsay, we're in a situation where I think the market wants
- 21:11I looked at Nedbank as well up this morning at 8%.
- 21:15And I looked at their trading update, which was awful.
- 21:19And the reason was that there was clarity on the sale of this bank in West Africa.
- 21:24You know, I don't know what was opaque before.
- 21:27I don't know what the...
- 21:28worries were ahead of it.
- 21:30But anyway, some uncertainties have been removed.
- 21:33And I mean, they made a huge loss on the actual sale.
- 21:37But, you know, we always hide those.
- 21:39We don't show those in headline numbers.
- 21:41It's always in the earnings.
- 21:43And yet the share price was up around about 8%.
- 21:45So I think the market's looking for, you know, reasons to come in.
- 21:50I tell you where I was disappointed yesterday.
- 21:54And I looked at that budget.
- 21:55There was a lot.
- 21:56that I liked, and I'm hoping that they can actually reduce the amount that they have
- 22:01to raise, you know,
- 22:03to finance the whole economy and the normal stories.
- 22:06But the market didn't respond well.
- 22:08The bond market did, though.
- 22:10The bond market did.
- 22:12Yeah, but the equity, I thought there'd be more on the equity market.
- 22:15In fact, there were more losers on the market yesterday than there were winners.
- 22:20And I thought, hold on, that's what, you know, what's it telling us is that, okay.
- 22:26You know, down at the bottom, this is all very well at that level, but down at the
- 22:30bottom, things are not that great.
- 22:32There's still a lot of work to be done.
- 22:33There's a bit of an improvement today, but I still think there are things, there are
- 22:39issues that are worrying.
- 22:41And I'm coming back to where we are, Lindsay, you know, in the clothing
- 22:44retailers and those areas.
- 22:46And there's still concerns it's not going to work.
- 22:47You know, that it's not as easy as perhaps we thought it would be.
- 22:53Yeah, I had that same conversation yesterday.
- 22:56The person I was speaking to, actually, you know him, Skulk Lowe.
- 23:00He was jumping through hoops because of the resources index, which is up about 5%.
- 23:05And I said, well,
- 23:07how did the domestic stocks perform given the good budget?
- 23:09He said they did nothing.
- 23:10If anything, they were down.
- 23:11And he was also a little bit puzzled by that.
- 23:14Anyway.
- 23:15The dollar round is 15.97, which is, yeah, it's not significantly worse off, but it's
- 23:22worse off.
- 23:22The dollar has gained 0.7 against the round.
- 23:25British pound against the round, 21.59.
- 23:27And the euro round, 18.84, with the euro dollar around about 1.1810.
- 23:33The gold price is 51.55.
- 23:36That's quite a fall from this time yesterday, but on the last 24 hours, only
- 23:43down $15 or 0.3%.
- 23:45Platinum price is getting hit.
- 23:47to the tune of 4.5% to 2,227.
- 23:48Palladium down 2.9%.
- 23:51Palladium was a stonking goodbye yesterday, up around about 10%, I think,
- 23:55at one stage.
- 23:57But anyway, today down 3%, nearly at 17.82.
- 24:00If we go now to oil, which will be in sharp focus in the next week or so,
- 24:06just before Trump presses the button, as soon as the Gerald Ford is in position.
- 24:12I think it's almost arrived in the Gulf and it'll be alongside the Abraham Lincoln
- 24:19and then the fun will start.
- 24:21So Brent crude oil is up 0.6% today, $71.25 per barrel.
- 24:27$65.51 is the West Texas crude price, up very slightly.
- 24:32Copper, $5.94, which is down 0.8%.
- 24:38Well, $6.04 earlier on.
- 24:39So there's been a bit of a turnaround in the metals in the last three or four hours
- 24:45or so.
- 24:45South African 10-year bond, 7.88.
- 24:48It was 7.80 on the close yesterday.
- 24:51So it's 8.5 points up or 1%.
- 24:54That's the yield.
- 24:55U.S.
- 24:5610-year, gosh, it's looking to break down through four.
- 24:59I was certain this was going to be a loser this year, the bond market.
- 25:03And indeed, I was right.
- 25:04It went from 4 to 4.30 and now back to 4 again.
- 25:08So something's going on there.
- 25:10I thought people would be dumping US Treasuries.
- 25:12Not so.
- 25:13S&P 500 futures down three quarters of a percent.
- 25:16Has there been some numbers out this afternoon, David?
- 25:20Not that I know of.
- 25:21The dollar is firmer.
- 25:23The dollar is firmer.
- 25:24I can see that the Rands at like 1594 having been down in 1580s and that.
- 25:30But nothing making headlines.
- 25:33OK, maybe it's just the tech.
- 25:35Maybe it's the Nvidia thing and it's spilling over into other markets as
- 25:39they're also linked these days.
- 25:416903 now, the S&P 500 down 0.8 percent.
- 25:44And finally, Bitcoin.
- 25:46Yeah, it didn't last.
- 25:47It doesn't like 68,000.
- 25:49in a range of sort of 62 to 68 at the moment, 67,000 and a bit right now.
- 25:55If you look at the JSC, we're going to look at the ups and downs.
- 25:58We've mentioned Truos. I'm sure they're there.
- 26:01Sorry, I'm just changing my screen.
- 26:03And we have on the upside, NEDCOR mentioned by David Shapiro up just over
- 26:098%.
- 26:11Discovery up seven and two thirds.
- 26:13Alphamin up 5%.
- 26:15HCI up nearly 5%.
- 26:17Motus, their numbers came out earlier yesterday, I think it was.
- 26:184.75% higher.
- 26:20On the downside, Sassl, a big tumble,
- 26:23despite the fact that the Rand is weaker and the oil price is higher.
- 26:28So work that one out.
- 26:29Sassl down 8.5%.
- 26:31Tiger Brands down 6.2%.
- 26:34DRD Gold down 5%.
- 26:36And Carew down nearly 4%.
- 26:38To end this, David, I want you to tell us about the State of the Uni.
- 26:43Were you there?
- 26:44Did you watch it?
- 26:45What was the reaction on the streets of New York?
- 26:50You have no idea.
- 26:51I mean, to be honest, this is a nation that is so divided.
- 26:56You've got, you know, it's almost as though you're stuck in the middle of the
- 27:03road and on the left hand side, you've got these Republicans calling for, or sorry,
- 27:05let's call it the Democrats on the right hand side, the Republicans. And you're in
- 27:09the middle saying, which side do I go to?
- 27:11Because I think they hate it by, but the middle hates both sides and not quite sure
- 27:15where to go.
- 27:15It is such an extreme nation, the hate.
- 27:18and the insults at each other.
- 27:21And Trump, I decided to try and listen to it, and I started at 9 o'clock here.
- 27:25By 10 past 9, I was exhausted.
- 27:29And it went on.
- 27:29It went on for two hours.
- 27:31Hour and 47 minutes, longest ever.
- 27:34Bumbling and just talking and insulting.
- 27:37And I mean, I don't know where the president gets these numbers from.
- 27:41He makes them up on the trot.
- 27:43Yes, he does.
- 27:44Because nothing is true.
- 27:44And that's all that's been happening.
- 27:46The last couple of days, people breaking down these numbers, you know, which were
- 27:51complete fabrications.
- 27:53And, you know, claiming, you know,
- 27:53what he claims for the success on the market is all he's doing and so on.
- 27:59But anyway, this is the nation.
- 28:03It's not the kind of nation that you thought, you know, that those pictures
- 28:09that you used to see in the 50s and 60s and 70s.
- 28:11It's just a country totally divided.
- 28:14And Democrats...
- 28:16Many never turned up, Lindsay, and a lot walked out.
- 28:20And when they asked, did you hear that there was a huge outcry when he asked
- 28:26everybody to stand up, you know, and applaud
- 28:28Medal of Honor and so on and so on and whatever.
- 28:30And the Democrats never stood up.
- 28:32So there was huge issues against that as well.
- 28:36I've been watching it with fascination.
- 28:38Viv, you're an analytical person.
- 28:41You listen to David and I indulgently talking about...
- 28:45the personal defects of the president because it doesn't matter does it clearly
- 28:52no it does to some extent because he's such
- 28:54a volatile figure i mean uh you know you could have a clinton or you could have
- 28:59whatever in office at the moment and you'd have a much clearer idea as to
- 29:01what's happening with iran but literally it's not breaks tomorrow and iran could be
- 29:05a country or not a country because of
- 29:07what he thinks of in the morning you know what i mean uh there's a great uh john
- 29:10oliver
- 29:10thing where he basically goes through and talks about how things that can appear on
- 29:16twitter often from accounts that are very dubious,
- 29:18can suddenly translate into real impacts on the world because it gets picked up by
- 29:23Elon Musk, it goes off to Trump,
- 29:25and Trump suddenly is moving policy in weird ways.
- 29:26So, I mean, this is the world we're living in.
- 29:28But what gets me is that how stupid were the Democrats?
- 29:32I mean, by sitting down, not for Trump, but for the Medal of Honor people,
- 29:36it was just dumb because he chose people that anyone would say, these are American
- 29:42heroes, you stand up for them.
- 29:44You know what I mean?
- 29:46And by not doing it, it was just dumb.
- 29:48It was a difficult one because of the association with Trump, because Trump
- 29:49introduced the theme.
- 29:51You see, that's the point.
- 29:53I understand why they didn't stand up, but they should have bitten their tongues and
- 29:57stood up for America.
- 29:59So, yes, you're quite right.
- 30:01They did make a mistake.
- 30:03Gentlemen, got a dash.
- 30:05Thank you very much for your time this evening.
- 30:07David Shapiro is from SAS for Insecurities in Manhattan.
- 30:09David, sorry, Viv Govender is from Ransuisse in Johannesburg.
- 30:10And that was the five o'clock shadow.
- 30:12The views and opinions expressed in these podcasts are those of Lindsay Williams and
- 30:19various contributors and do not reflect the policy,
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- 30:28Assumptions made on the analyses are not reflective of the position of any other
- 30:35entity other than the speaker or the author.
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