Latest / Financial Survival Network / Post-Election Market Trends, Gold, Bitcoin, and the Dollar - Eric Hadik #6197

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Post-Election Market Trends, Gold, Bitcoin, and the Dollar - Eric Hadik #6197 · Financial Survival Network

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: The cycles that I was following in that MidCap four hundred,
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: we're telling me to look for a final high, to
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: wait until late November, ideally right around November twenty second,
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: twenty fifth, and even had a multi month upside range
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: target as what I call it, around thirty four hundred.
• 0:23
  Speaker 2: So both of those.
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  Speaker 1: Things were angling a little in favor of the results
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: that we saw on the election, and they both followed
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: through on that analysis and on those cycles.
• 0:36
  Speaker 3: You were listening to Carrie let'sa's financial Survival Network where
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• 1:03
  Speaker 4: And welcome. You are listening to the Financial Survival Network.
• 1:08
  Speaker 4: I'm your host, Carrie Lets. And well, we got Ericattick
• 1:12
  Speaker 4: with us today and you find him inside assid track
• 1:19
  Speaker 4: Trading dot com. And we're going to do a little
• 1:22
  Speaker 4: post election follow up see what the markets, what impact
• 1:27
  Speaker 4: the election results are going to have on the market,
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  Speaker 4: or maybe they've already been reflected, and trends that you
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  Speaker 4: need to pay attention to that will be emerging in
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  Speaker 4: the coming months. Eric, It's great to have you back.
• 1:40
  Speaker 4: So elections come and go, the market always remains the market,
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  Speaker 4: but there's definitely influences from elections, right.
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  Speaker 1: Yes, excuse me, sorry, Kerry, Yes, thanks for having me back.
• 1:56
  Speaker 2: And certainly the markets have.
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: A either influence or correlation to things like elections and
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: other fundamental events, often casting their shadows before or casting
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: their shadows ahead before an event like that. And that
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  Speaker 1: was a couple couple markets that I had been discussing
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  Speaker 1: and writing about that, while not certainly not a clear indication,
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: they were giving some clues and hints. Two of the
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: ones that I really was highlighting throughout the month of
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: October was first of all, a by signal that was
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: generated in my work in bitcoin in early October. It
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: was a successive by signal, another one in a series
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: of them. But everything was showing me that bitcoins it
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: should see in October November surge. And at the same time,
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: the SMP MidCap four hundred was giving some strong by
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: signals in early October, and the whole time the cycles
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: that I was following in that mid cap four hundred,
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: were telling me to look for a final high, to
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: wait until late November, ideally right around November twenty second,
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: twenty fifth, and even had a multi month upside range
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: target as what I call it, around thirty four hundred.
• 3:37
  Speaker 2: So both of those.
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: Things were angling a little in favor of the result
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: that we saw in the election, and they both followed
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: through on that analysis and on those cycles, and the
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: MidCap four hundred was kind of shocking to me just
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: how precise it was. It rallied right up into November
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  Speaker 1: twenty fifths by briefly above thirty four hundred and has
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  Speaker 1: declined since then. So there's, you know, some of those
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  Speaker 1: markets that give you a little bit of a clue,
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  Speaker 1: but certainly not something you would want to trade or
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  Speaker 1: make a decision directly off of.
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  Speaker 4: M So it's come to pass. Do you think the
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  Speaker 4: market is has seen its final high here for a
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  Speaker 4: while or the stock market, I should say, or are
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  Speaker 4: we going to see more of the same?
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  Speaker 1: Well, I think that it is setting a multi month high.
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  Speaker 1: And what I discussed back in early October was the setup.
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  Speaker 2: The structure from a technical perspective.
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  Speaker 1: Was reminding me of early June in that June July
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  Speaker 1: period equating to the October November period where you saw
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  Speaker 1: the small and MidCap indexes kind of take the lead
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  Speaker 1: and see stronger rallies than the large PAP indexes.
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  Speaker 2: And that's what you've seen.
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  Speaker 1: And since that late November peak in the small and midcafs,
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  Speaker 1: the Russell two thousand also peaked right in lockstep with
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  Speaker 1: those cycles. Then you had the down as that one
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  Speaker 1: hundred s and P one five hundred excuse me, follow
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  Speaker 1: through a little beyond that and initially set highs in
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  Speaker 1: early December. But I'm really watching some key levels in
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  Speaker 1: those small and midcalfs to see if they confirm and
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  Speaker 1: or signal something larger than just a multi week correction.
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  Speaker 4: All right, So we've seen the price of gold go
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  Speaker 4: way way higher and getting in there looks like it's
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  Speaker 4: been sticking around the twenty six twenty seven hundred dollars range.
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  Speaker 1: What we think?
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  Speaker 4: What are we thinking here? And does the election? Is
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  Speaker 4: the election going to have an impact on it or
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  Speaker 4: is it just a trend that was already underway continuing.
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  Speaker 1: I think that it's more of the ladder that ever
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  Speaker 1: since late twenty twenty two, I've been discussing what I
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  Speaker 1: thought would be a multi year bowl market in gold
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  Speaker 1: and coming into the third quarter. One of the key
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  Speaker 1: things I was watching was this very consistent it's a
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  Speaker 1: little over a year long cycle that gold has adhere to.
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  Speaker 1: It's a twelve and a half month cycle, usually fifty
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  Speaker 1: four to fifty nine weeks, although in the recent phases
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  Speaker 1: it's been very close to that fifty four week timeframe,
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  Speaker 1: and it had set successive lows in September of twenty
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  Speaker 1: twenty two October of twenty twenty three, and was telling
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  Speaker 1: me to look for an inversion and a peak in
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  Speaker 1: late October, which is when gold set it is high.
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  Speaker 1: I think that that highest is likely to hold for
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  Speaker 1: at least a few months. Ultimately, I would expect gold
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  Speaker 1: to resume that up trend, but there still is a
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  Speaker 1: question as to whether the intervening correction is complete, if
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  Speaker 1: it has seen its extreme to the downside.
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  Speaker 2: One of the.
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  Speaker 1: Interesting technical wave perspectives of gold's recent sell off was
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  Speaker 1: that it really mimicked and duplicated its largest decline of
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  Speaker 1: the last year and bottoms right when it equaled that advance.
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  Speaker 1: So you had kind of this wave similarity comparison going
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  Speaker 1: on there, which is technically something to look for at
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  Speaker 1: least an initial low. But again I'm waiting for some
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: clear indication whether the correction is complete, and if that's
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  Speaker 1: the case, i think we'd still stay in a trading
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  Speaker 1: range for another month or so before breaking out to
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  Speaker 1: the upside, or whether there's one more leg down before
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  Speaker 1: the correction is complete.
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  Speaker 4: Okay, and let's see interest rates. We always talk about
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  Speaker 4: interest rates. They've been coming down a bit. We're going
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  Speaker 4: to see them go lowerly as low as they can
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  Speaker 4: be now.
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  Speaker 1: I think that there's another leg down eventually that goes
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  Speaker 1: along with intermediate analysis some three to six months trends
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  Speaker 1: and cycles, but also a much broader, much longer term
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  Speaker 1: cycle that I've discussed in the past, where you've had
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  Speaker 1: since the beginning of the US, there's been this seventeen
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: year cycle that has timed thirteen of fourteen. So thirteen
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  Speaker 1: of the fourteen phases of that seventeen year cycle has
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  Speaker 1: timed recessions in the US, and the only time it
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  Speaker 1: didn't was when we were getting into World War two.
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  Speaker 1: And that comes back into play in twenty twenty five.
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  Speaker 1: And there's a lot of other factors, certainly leaning in
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  Speaker 1: that direction. Have also done some analysis and shown why
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  Speaker 1: I think that part of that recessionary cycle could also
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: be some stagflation in there.
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  Speaker 2: But I do think that.
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: Between now, really my cycles were bottoming in November for bonds.
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  Speaker 1: Between the and the first quarter of twenty twenty five,
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: you could see interst rates edging lower and see perhaps
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: some signs of that recessionary impact hitting the markets. But
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: I think, like I said, towards the latter part of
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: twenty twenty five, I think that you're going to see
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  Speaker 1: some new inflationary pressures and perhaps resulting in a form
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: of stagflation moving forward from that time frame.
• 10:34
  Speaker 2: So I think interest rates are in.
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: For a volatile time as evidence of each of those
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: factors hits the markets and comes to fruition. But all
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  Speaker 1: in all, I do think that bonds have probably hit
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: a multi month low, which interest rates are the inversion
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  Speaker 1: of that. So those interest rates have seen a multi
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: month peak in mid November, and that they should drift
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  Speaker 1: lower into the first quarter of twenty twenty five.
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  Speaker 2: All right, all right.
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  Speaker 4: So I guess we should talk about oil. It's trading
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  Speaker 4: like ground just under seventy bucks a barrel. Now, WTI
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  Speaker 4: and that kind of fits in with inflation and interest
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  Speaker 4: rates and everything else. So what's your take on it.
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  Speaker 1: Well, I watch each of the energy mark it's crewed,
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  Speaker 1: unleaded gas, heating oil, and even natural gas, which kind
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  Speaker 1: of moves in a different cycle than the other three,
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  Speaker 1: but also as a little bit of a proxy when
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  Speaker 1: there's some uncertainty there. Also watch the Goldman Sachs commodity,
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: which is heavily weighted in energy, and all of those
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  Speaker 1: factors except for the natural gas, but the crude in
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  Speaker 1: products and the GSCI. We're all telling me to look
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  Speaker 1: for a multi month bottom in September of this year,
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  Speaker 1: and although we haven't seen any big move up from there,
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  Speaker 1: there was your initial rally in early October, but since
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  Speaker 1: then all those markets have retreated and gone back towards
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  Speaker 1: the lows. But as long as that September low holds,
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  Speaker 1: which I expected to, I do think that energy markets
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  Speaker 1: are going to see a new rally, probably starting in
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  Speaker 1: December and then carrying forward into the first quarter of
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  Speaker 1: next year. So I think we're in a period where
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  Speaker 1: you're going to see some upward pressure on oil prices,
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  Speaker 1: not necessarily really a raging bull market, but something that
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: is certainly tradable and has some nice upside to it.
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  Speaker 4: Interesting. Interesting, all right, what else should we be looking at?
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  Speaker 1: Well, one of the other things that kind of played
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  Speaker 1: in with the election cycle is the dollar US dollar.
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  Speaker 1: And you know, you and I talked back in twenty
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  Speaker 1: sixteen and again in twenty twenty, and what I discussed
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  Speaker 1: then and continue to focus on is a very general,
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: broad correlation, but it continues to Holt true, and that
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  Speaker 1: is the movement in the dollar based on the administration
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  Speaker 1: Republican or Democratic that is in power. And since the
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: early eighties, you've seen a pretty strong connection between the
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  Speaker 1: dollar selling off door during Republican administrations and the dollar
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  Speaker 1: rallying on balance during democratic administrations.
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  Speaker 2: And one of.
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  Speaker 1: The reasons for that, if you go back to the eighties,
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  Speaker 1: was certainly a strong desire for the dollar to week in.
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  Speaker 1: It was very strong at the time, but the Reagan
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: administration wanted to see the dollar decline to help exports,
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: and so you had leading up to and then after
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  Speaker 1: the Plaza Accord in nineteen eighty five, you had representatives
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  Speaker 1: for the administration constantly on the airwaves talking down the dollar.
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  Speaker 1: But that mentality has carried through and again you look
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  Speaker 1: at over the last forty years, the dollar has swung
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  Speaker 1: in lockstep with that correlation, and all of my work
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: has been showing that the dollar should see a new
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  Speaker 1: decline in twenty twenty five. So that would fit most
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  Speaker 1: closely with if there was a Republican administration in power,
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  Speaker 1: if that correlation continues to hold firm, And so that's
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: certainly the results of the election reinforced that outlook.
• 15:25
  Speaker 2: In the dollar.
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  Speaker 1: And right now I'm looking at the potential for the
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: dollar to remain in a trading range into January, possibly
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: spike a little bit above recent highs in January, but
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: then from that point forward is when some downward pressures
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: should begin to resume on the dollar.
• 15:51
  Speaker 4: All right, Well, yeah, like we saw the dollar weaken
• 15:55
  Speaker 4: up a little bit towards the summer, and we had
• 15:57
  Speaker 4: talked and I was wondering if that was the the
• 16:00
  Speaker 4: tip off that the election was going to go towards Trump. Well,
• 16:08
  Speaker 4: and so it happened.
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: It's more of a correlation while that administration is in power.
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  Speaker 2: So the outlook for the dollar was.
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  Speaker 1: And that's even what we discussed back in twenty sixteen
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: when I thought the dollar was going to see a
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: multi year top in late twenty sixteen or early twenty seventeen.
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: And that's why I thought in the middle of twenty
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: sixteen that we would see a republican administration, and then
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: in twenty twenty just the opposite that the dollar was
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: looking like it would be bottoming and rallying for a
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: couple of years from twenty twenty into twenty twenty two.
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  Speaker 1: That was, in my opinion, favoring a democratic administration. And
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  Speaker 1: now here we are again. The outlook is really here
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: we are. The thing that I focus on because that's
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: when the administration power does have some influence on the
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: movement of the dollar.
• 17:10
  Speaker 4: M Yeah, it's just interesting to see. I got a
• 17:14
  Speaker 4: question kind of off the cuff one of my one
• 17:17
  Speaker 4: of our community or FSN community asked. This was Jim.
• 17:23
  Speaker 4: I said, next time Eric is on, please ask him
• 17:27
  Speaker 4: if any of the charts that he sees are affected
• 17:32
  Speaker 4: by AI or somehow indicative of the AI revolution taking place.
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: That's one of those things that's really too specific for
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: the type of work that I do to really convincingly
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: make a conclusion one where or another. I guess it
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: would have to take into account a lot of different factors,
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: you know, whether that really does ultimately help with automation,
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: or whether it has positive or negative impact on true
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: employment as as AI starts to become a competing.
• 18:22
  Speaker 2: Factor in there.
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: I mean, I do watch several of the related stocks
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: for my own.
• 18:33
  Speaker 2: Information and.
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: Help, or as a proxy for things like the tech indexes.
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: But I don't know that I would necessarily say that
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: I can conclude anything from looking at, you know, a
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: couple of years worth of focus on AI potential and
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: apply that to the broader outlook.
• 19:00
  Speaker 4: I kind of figured that was what you would say,
• 19:03
  Speaker 4: but you had the questions I had to ask it. Hey,
• 19:05
  Speaker 4: all right, Eric, appreciate you coming on. As always, find
• 19:09
  Speaker 4: Eric's work at inside track Trading. That's I n side
• 19:16
  Speaker 4: Tracktrading dot com. And if getting questions comments for Eric myself,
• 19:21
  Speaker 4: shoot me an email kl at Carrie lets dot com.
• 19:23
  Speaker 4: You'll find a link in the show notes to this
• 19:25
  Speaker 4: interview on Financial Survival Network dot com. And please, when
• 19:29
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  Speaker 4: sixty thousand other FS and members have done. Eric, appreciate
• 19:37
  Speaker 4: you coming on. We'll talk to you again real soon.
• 19:39
  Speaker 3: Thank you, Thanks for listening to Carrie let's's Financial Survival
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