Latest / DEEP INSIGHT / US economy saw stronger-than-expected job growth in September, but the unemployment rate rose

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US economy saw stronger-than-expected job growth in September, but the unemployment rate rose · DEEP INSIGHT

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  Speaker 1: Just a few minutes ago, the jobs report for September
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  Speaker 1: was released. This had been held back because of the
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  Speaker 1: government shutdown, the longest shutdown in history. But now we
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  Speaker 1: know what the job situation was in September, and the
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  Speaker 1: news is better than expected. Let's get to madd Eagan
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  Speaker 1: on this. What do we see?
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  Speaker 2: Well, John, look, we had to wait a very long
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  Speaker 2: time for this report, and it's painting a mixed picture
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  Speaker 2: about the state of the job market entering the government shutdown.
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  Speaker 2: Here's the good news. The good news is the US
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  Speaker 2: economy added one hundred and nineteen thousand jobs during the
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  Speaker 2: month of September. That is well ahead of expectations, which
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  Speaker 2: were for around fifty thousand. It's also well ahead of
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  Speaker 2: what's needed to keep the job market on a stable footing,
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  Speaker 2: so that is good news. The bad news, though, is
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  Speaker 2: the unemployment rate. It goes up from four point three percent,
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  Speaker 2: unexpectedly rising to four point four percent. That is a
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  Speaker 2: fresh four year high. So pretty mixed there. We also
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  Speaker 2: got some disappointing news in terms of of revisions to
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  Speaker 2: prior months. Now, as you know, sometimes when new information
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  Speaker 2: comes in, they revised the numbers, and so what we
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  Speaker 2: saw was that August and you can see it on
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  Speaker 2: this chart. August was revised from slightly positive. It was
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  Speaker 2: a weak number of twenty two thousand. Now it's negative
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  Speaker 2: four thousand. You see it on that chart going below zero.
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  Speaker 2: So that is the second month of the last four
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  Speaker 2: where the US economy actually lost jobs. So the summer
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  Speaker 2: we knew it was weak, it was actually weaker than
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  Speaker 2: we realized. July was also revised a little bit lower.
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  Speaker 2: So you can see why people have been concerned because
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  Speaker 2: the US economy has had been gaining a lot of
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  Speaker 2: jobs each month and that has really slowed down. But again,
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  Speaker 2: the good news though, is that September was a bigger
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  Speaker 2: rebound than anticipated and digging into some of the sectors here, Manufacturing,
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  Speaker 2: which is that key sector that the president is trying
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  Speaker 2: to prop up with skyhigh tariffs, it lost jobs again.
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  Speaker 2: Another six thousand jobs were lost in manufacturing during the
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  Speaker 2: month of September. That continues a trend there. However, construction,
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  Speaker 2: which had been under some pressure because of immigration, because
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  Speaker 2: of terrifts because the interest rates, gain jobs and that
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  Speaker 2: is an improvement. Healthcare that's been a go to sector
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  Speaker 2: as far as jobs also gaining jobs. There one last
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  Speaker 2: point here, John, because we found out that the October
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  Speaker 2: jobs report is not getting released. This number is extra
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  Speaker 2: important because it's the last full jobs report that the
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  Speaker 2: Federal Reserve has before making its last interest rate decision
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  Speaker 2: of the year next month.
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  Speaker 1: Do you think this makes it more likely they cut this?
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  Speaker 3: Is?
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  Speaker 1: This shows in a common is okay, September was okay.
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  Speaker 2: I think it probably doesn't move the needle much right now,
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  Speaker 2: which is leaning against an interest rate cut. The odds
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  Speaker 2: have been falling for an interest rate cut in recent days,
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  Speaker 2: and it's probably gonna stay kind of where it is
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  Speaker 2: because this is pretty mixed.
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  Speaker 1: Pretty mix. You see the unemployment rate going up even
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  Speaker 1: with okay, number of jobs add and those down revisions
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  Speaker 1: really really interesting. So now we have two months of
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  Speaker 1: negative growth.
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  Speaker 2: Yes, after four years of none.
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  Speaker 1: All right, Maddie, thank you, thanks for that.
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  Speaker 4: Kate. All right. Joining us right now is Pete c
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  Speaker 4: former White House spokesperson for President George W. Bush and
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  Speaker 4: former spokesperson for the Indiana Republican Party. So there's a
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  Speaker 4: lot of mixed going on. We've got these new jobs
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  Speaker 4: report coming out, Pete, but also you've got these numbers
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  Speaker 4: from a Fox Newspole of how people are feeling about
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  Speaker 4: the economy and talk about kind of this mixed bag.
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  Speaker 4: Some seventy six percent of voters in this Fox newspoll
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  Speaker 4: view the economy negatively, and that is worse than it
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  Speaker 4: was over the summer. And by a two nearly two
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  Speaker 4: to one margin, voters say that Donald Trump, the President, Trump,
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  Speaker 4: is more responsible for the current economy than Joe Biden.
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  Speaker 4: So you've got economic data and you've got how people
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  Speaker 4: feel about it. What level of alarm should this be
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  Speaker 4: raising inside the White House right now about how people
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  Speaker 4: are feeling about the economy.
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  Speaker 3: Well, the twenty twenty four election was about vibes and
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  Speaker 3: that was to the benefit of Donald Trump, and the
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  Speaker 3: twenty twenty six election will likely also be about those
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  Speaker 3: very same vibes, namely affordability. People are not looking at
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  Speaker 3: big ticket items that are rarely purchased like cars and homes.
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  Speaker 3: They're looking at consumer staples. They're looking at the cost
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  Speaker 3: of goods when they go to their local grocery store
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  Speaker 3: and when they pump gas at the station. Now, some
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  Speaker 3: of those numbers are going down but aren't necessarily being
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  Speaker 3: felt yet. It takes time, and I do think that
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  Speaker 3: a mistake that the administration made, that the campaign made
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  Speaker 3: was promising overnight success. Getting these numbers to go down
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  Speaker 3: and for Americans to feel that in their pocketbooks takes time,
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  Speaker 3: and the administration needs to be realistic about that.
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  Speaker 4: Yeah, And because you know, set Trump aside, this will,
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  Speaker 4: as you're saying, is going to have a real impact
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  Speaker 4: on how people are feeling when it comes to the midterms.
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  Speaker 4: And on that point, when it comes to the midterms,
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  Speaker 4: this relates to a situation actctually that's playing out in
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  Speaker 4: Indiana right now are wonderfully loved shared state, which is
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  Speaker 4: that the President is now threatening Pete to back primary
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  Speaker 4: challengers against Indiana Republicans over the push to redistrict and
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  Speaker 4: bring the redistricting fight to Indiana and rewrite congressional maps
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  Speaker 4: more in the in Republicans favor Republicans in the state
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  Speaker 4: Senate in Indiana. They've just announced that they're not going
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  Speaker 4: to they can't do because they don't have the votes.
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  Speaker 4: And the President is saying now he's going to back
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  Speaker 4: primary challenges against Republicans over this.
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  Speaker 2: What is going on there?
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  Speaker 3: What you have going on here is the tension between
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  Speaker 3: fidelity to principle and flirtations with politics. The political argument
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  Speaker 3: is an easy one to make. You want more seats
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  Speaker 3: for Republicans in the US House of Representatives, so rather
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  Speaker 3: than win on the merits, you go redraw the lines
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  Speaker 3: to make them easier to win. The principal argument, on
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  Speaker 3: the other hand, is harder to make. It's harder for
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  Speaker 3: people to grasp because it's so antiquated in this environment
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  Speaker 3: for politicians to be principled that it's now a novelty.
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  Speaker 3: Yet you have a majority of the Indiana Republican state
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  Speaker 3: Senate Caucus that believes firmly that the lines that they
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  Speaker 3: drew in twenty twenty one and passed into law on
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  Speaker 3: twenty twenty one were done correctly, they were not jerry mandered,
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  Speaker 3: and there's no reason to go back on that to
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  Speaker 3: score short term political points that could ultimately result in
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  Speaker 3: long term pain for the party.
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  Speaker 4: And what we're looking at here is it's a seven
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  Speaker 4: to two split, if you will. Republicans right now have
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  Speaker 4: seven of the congressional seats. Check me if I'm wrong
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  Speaker 4: on this, because I think I remember this right. Democrats
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  Speaker 4: have two of the seats, and what they were hoping
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  Speaker 4: to do when they redraw this, of course, is to
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  Speaker 4: have all nine be Republican. But the fact that you've
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  Speaker 4: got a federal judge that just told Texas, which was
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  Speaker 4: the kind of the center of the universe on this one,
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  Speaker 4: telling Texas that it cannot use the new maps that
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  Speaker 4: it drew or the midterms. That decision is being appealed.
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  Speaker 4: But still if it holds, does that play or is
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  Speaker 4: that playing into the hesitation from Indiana Republicans on.
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  Speaker 3: This I think that does play into it. But again
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  Speaker 3: it comes back to a principled argument. We for twenty
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  Speaker 3: years Republicans have said, we don't jerrymander, that we draw
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  Speaker 3: congressional districts and state house and Senate districts.
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  Speaker 4: Right, that this entire environment is fighting fire with fire.
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  Speaker 4: There is no fidelity to principle anymore. And how is
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  Speaker 4: it only happening in the Hoosier State.
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  Speaker 3: Well, you should know better than anyone, Cake, because we
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  Speaker 3: stand on principle. We are good, hardy people in the
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  Speaker 3: Hoosier State. But that's why this story is so fascinating
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  Speaker 3: to people who live outside of Indiana. All the noise
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  Speaker 3: in favor of re redistricting is coming from Washington and
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  Speaker 3: small social media echo chambers. When these state senators hear
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  Speaker 3: from their constituent. They are hearing overwhelming opposition. I hear
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  Speaker 3: this privately, and I've read this publicly. They've talked about this.
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  Speaker 3: When they run into constituents in the grocery store or
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  Speaker 3: at church or getting a haircut. They're hearing people say,
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  Speaker 3: don't do this. Indiana does it right. We don't see
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  Speaker 3: why we should change that.
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  Speaker 4: I'm now realizing the mistake of this segment, which is
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  Speaker 4: you've got two people who are so biased in favor
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  Speaker 4: of just the entire state of Indiana. I don't know
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  Speaker 4: how we can publicly and possibly speak about this in
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  Speaker 4: a fair way.
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  Speaker 1: It's good to see Pete.
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  Speaker 4: I will say this, though Pete doesn't. It's what's going
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  Speaker 4: on when it comes to Indiana, especially Republican politics. So
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  Speaker 4: it's great to see buddy. Thank you so much.