Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / The Favorites - Best Bets NFL Week 5

Transcript

The Favorites - Best Bets NFL Week 5 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: It's the Favorites presented by FanDuel. Football season is here
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: and there's no better place to get in on the
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: action than FanDuel. I love betting with fandel because They're
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: app is safe, secure and easy to use, and when
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: I win, I get paid fast. So use promo code
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: Favorites and download the FanDuel app today to make every
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: moment more this football season. Must be twenty one or
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: older and in select states called one eight hundred gambler
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: or visit FanDuel dot com slash r g in Colorado, Iowa, Michigan,
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, and Virginia one eight hundred next
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: step or text next step to five three three F
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: two in Arizona one eight eight seven eight nine seven
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: seven seven seven or visit CCPG dot org slash chat
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: in Connecticut one eight hundred nine with it in Indiana,
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: visit ks gambling help dot com. In Kansas call one
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: eight seven seven seven seven zero stop in Louisiana one
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: eight seven seven eight hope and why or text hope
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: and why four seven three six nine. In York, Tennessee,
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: redline is one eight eight nine called one eight hundred
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: five to two four seven zero zero in Wyoming or
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: visit www Dot one Gambler dot net in West Virginia.
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites the Podcast from the Volume Podcast Network.
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: I am Chad Melman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: I am joined by my co host, my companion, Michael
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: padre my bff Mr Simon Hunter. Packed show today, Buddy, packed,
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: Packed show. Tighter than a suitcase that's expanded and will
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: no longer fit in the overhead space. Yeah, a lot
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: of a lot of calls to get to a lot
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: of conversation about this week, a lot of pick flipping.
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: Hopefully people forgive us, but I think that's how it is.
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: Sometimes we're a week to come in right chat of
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: the plan, and the plans change, kind of get in
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: the mouth. A lot of information in a couple of days.
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: Blown up, Yeah, exactly, blown up. As a reminder, we
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: will go through our final five, which we will put
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: in the app on Sunday. Things change. We gotta follow
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: the phase five in the Action Network app to get
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: where we land. Because things do change. We're going to
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: finalize our big balls better the week. We will do
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: our Scooch Roulette, we will do our money line Underdog
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: Round Robin Parlay. But first, as we do every week,
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: let's get to some sharp calls. Hello, who's there? I'm
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: talking rhone. Right. We had a lot of things to
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: say the other day. As always, the wise guys will
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: call you and you view your take on what we
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: talked about. What do they say? Very rare. I will
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: be woken up in my sleep by many calls. And basically,
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: so I have three phones. I got one phone I
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: don't even bring in the room. You got the other
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: phone that's just on silent mode, which is pretty much
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: just text and other things like that. And I want
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: my emergency phone, which I keep off silent just because
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: it's you know, I feel like anyone if you're living alone,
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: you've got ring cameras. I mean, you need to be alerted,
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: especially for someone like me that has cash. Anyone wants
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: to attempt it. I keep that thing loaded. And I
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: got both exits with cameras, so I don't even don't
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: wanna worry about it. But basically that's why I always
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: keep the one phone off silent, and you know, get
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: the first call, hit ignore right when I am reach
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: over my phone, just hit ignore, get another call. I
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: roll over and see the guy's name, so pro I
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: respect ignore because again it's late. It's like one thirty
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: at this time. Then I get another call from another guy.
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: It's like, holy ship, something must be going on. I
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: thought so many that got robbed or something big going on,
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: a big, big bet coming in. So I answer it
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: little do I know, chatsman about our our little show
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: here the world on fire with our love for the Dolphins. Uh?
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: That was multiple pros hitting me up and listen to
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: the show. I guess man, Mitchell drops it um or
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: the volume does at midnight or one am East Coast time.
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: So again that's ten ten pm Vegas time, not that late.
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: So a couple of guys listen to it, and they
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: reached out that they had gotten word really really really
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: sharp groupe was gonna come in heavy this week on
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: the Jets. So, you know, me thinking, what the hell
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: is going on here? I gotta all right, break this
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: down to me. What am I missing here? All my
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: love for the Dolphins. And we talked Teddy covers this
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: is a good spot to be taking Teddy against the
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: Jets team off a win. I just felt like a
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: really prime, prime chance to take the Dolphins, and I
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: think they're firing back with the stealth is defense. Are
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: they're really that good a team that you can give
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: up points? And the Jets offense that we've seen be
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: able to move a ball, they have weapons of the
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: wide receiver position, So to them, they think three and
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: a half is too big of a number. I had
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: to put it out there. I had to buy that position.
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: I mean that was I twoted out. I know people
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: got mad about it. There's more just because me and
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: Chad talked about love for my aim. I just want
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: to make sure people didn't bet it off of that,
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: because when a when a group again, there's certain groups
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: that bet, like me, the bet every week, they've bet
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: multiple games. They might have one or two big bets
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: a week, but they're they're betting a lot of the games.
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: These are three sixty groups. Three sixty means they don't
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: do anything for three sixty out of the year, but
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: for five days they make five bets. So this is
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: one of the days they're making a bet. I gotta
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: change my position. I can't be I know it all
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: jerk like. I gotta just listen to these guys. And
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: if it's multiple guys reaching out to me. Clearly they
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: aren't something here with this Jets team guy. So we've
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: seen the three and a half, I haven't really seen
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: it dip that much. It went down to three, bounce
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: back up at three and a half. But again it's
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: it's just one of those where I got blind spots.
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: I know that, Like I'm young in the game. Um,
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: if a guy that had as we're thirty five forty
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: years experiences reaching out and they're taking a position, one
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: of the five positions they take all year, I'm out
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: and I'll have to try to force Chad to let
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: me get this one in. But it just seems like
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: a three and a half. These guys are claiming this
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: is free money on the Jets. I know there's no
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: such thing, but it's it's clearly a position that these
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: pros are taken. The next game. Again, not as crazy
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: as that Jets one, because hold on one second. Yeah,
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: Stocky in the Action Network podcast had the Jets in
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: his UH money line Underdog Parlay. He and Raybon will
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: choose two teams to put into an underdog money line
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: Underdog Parlay. He had the Jets in there. That surprised
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: me a little bit um, I will say it piqued
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: my interest. I also saw that you put the Jets
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: into the app. You made a pick on the Jets
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: at three and a half. I saw you put her
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: too the app yesterday. I was like, Oh, that's interesting.
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: We're gonna talk about that tomorrow on the podcast. I
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: will say this, I don't give a fuck. This Jets
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: team is trash and this Miami team is better. And
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: while in a million years it goes against every fiber
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: of my being and all of my principles to bet
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: a road dog, I mean a road favorite, a short
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: road favorite. I'm riding with the Dolphins here all we're
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: having a bet off, and I'm just I'm with you.
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: I was, I was al on this. It's like it's
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: like we're in West Side Story right now. We're having
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: a bet off. Yeah, I just I gotta listen to
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: these guys. It's like, again, I'm pretty damn good at
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: what I do. These guys are the goal like I
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: want their lives. These are the o g s, the
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: guys who they moved mountains. So to me, I don't
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: like it either, but I me and Chad don't have
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: in this competition. I'll have and every other one. It's
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: just like I bet numbers and I play off other
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: players plays, and it's like I know, I don't know everything.
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: But as soon as a group, like last week the
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: Seahawks one Chad hated that until Sunday late Sunday, like
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: I literally had to be like, dude, just take this number. Um.
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: It feels like maybe the same boat here the Jets.
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: But yeah, the second one was they think we're stepping
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: in it with the Seahawks again. We can break that
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: one down. They like the Saints fun that I kind
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: of I'm kind of taking your stands here where it's like, nah,
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: I don't care, I'm on the public side of public dog.
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna take this the Seahawks here just to keep
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: this game close. Um. And then the last one, no shocker, uh,
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: they love our Rams play, so they think like I
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: had a bunch of guys call reach out about that one.
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: They love the Rams too. Um, I kind of wish
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: I had made it my sign and says, I think
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: I went from the four and a half to five
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: and a half, but what can you do? Still a
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: good number on the Rams. Um. But yeah, we'll break
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: that one down too, because again, it's rare me and
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: chatter on a bunch of favorites this week, but I
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: feel like that's a trend for a lot of pros
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: this week. There's just some undervalued favorites. I agree. I agree.
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: There does feel like we're seeing that. We also saw it.
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: You mentioned and Simon says you had the Ravens at
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: minus three as your Simon says, a lot of sharp
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: love on the Ravens to remind people your fun. The
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: foxel was Seattle plus five and a half. I'm feeling
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: a little aunty about a couple of our underdog plays
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: and the exact decision by me was the Browns plus three.
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: Two bets that are making me very nervous right now.
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: Seattle plus five and a half Atlanta, which has gone
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: from eight and a half to nine and a half.
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: And I am shocked that that number has gone up,
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: given how the Bucks got beat on Sunday night. It
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: just I felt like that number would come down. So
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: I'm a little surprised by that. It's making me a
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: little aunty. Yeah, but we kind of touched on in
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: the Atlanta spot where it's like I was on the
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: other end from it, just from the get go of
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: Brady tone oh at home playing against the team that's
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: four and oh a t s now a huge dog.
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: I know you read Evan Abrams piece. It's a great
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: spot the back Tampa. Historically, this is a good a
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: good time to take a favorite like this. But I
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: think the pau is right for everyone. But Tampa right
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: now is what's up with Brady? Like like rarely, he
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: is the guy on the injury report. I think they
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: had him on there for a shoulder like a road
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: tartir cuff maybe and then a finger. Yeah, not a
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: big deal. He was supposed to take Wednesday's off anyway.
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: He was still at the facility againting treatment, watching the practice.
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: That's something a monitor because like to me, I'm gonna
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: put a favorite of over eight points into our contest.
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: I gotta know it's all right. So again, weeks like
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: this we can talk about litle bit. I do a
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: lot of chalky stuff. I think we talked about last
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: week with the London games. It's like eighteen and three
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: or nineteen and three now the favorite on the money
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: line winning out right in London. So again, that's a
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: nice one you compare with with Tampa, with Tom Brady
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: tenan oh straight up after two losses. Can't beat that, Like,
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: that's a good spot. So there's a bunch of little
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: things like that I'll do this week. But trying to
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: convince Chad to take a banged up Brady at a
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: nine point favorite probably not gonna happen. But I would
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: just say to other people in pickpools, I would feel
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: comfortable taking Brady in this spot just because it is
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: a good position to take them and fade in Atlanta
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: team that could be slowly overvalud right now just because
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: of what they've done the last four weeks. Yeah, that's
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: what's making me more nervous about it is it's like
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: investing right you want to ride the wave and you
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: want to sell before you hit the peak. You want
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: to time the market, and we're usually really good at
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: timing the market on teams that are on the upswing,
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: as we have been with Atlanta. I worry that I
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: might have gone a week too long in Atlanta. I'm
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: having a lot of second thoughts on that one. That's
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: the one I have the most second thoughts on, and
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: it's not in our contest right now anyway. So you
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: touch on the sea all's real quick. Yeah, let's talk
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: about this. I want to go through our our sort
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: of that's making you uneasy about the Seahawks. Well, Seattle
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: right now is in our final five. It's one of
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: those situations where I am betting the number. But if
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: I look at the the flow of the teams, I've
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: got a Saints team coming off a tough loss. I've
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: got a Seahawks team coming off a huge win traveling again.
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: Is Geno for Rio? I don't know. Are his offensive
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: stats and the Seahawks offensive rankings inflated because of a
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: couple of games. Um. I looked at the number and
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: immediately liked, I just didn't think New Orleans should be
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: favored by five and a half. That's really what it is.
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: So I played the number. That's it, you know, I
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: would say the pros, that's what they were talking about.
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: Kind of the Seahawks. They're big. Pause. Like a couple
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: of guys that called me and said why they like
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: the Saints is okay, I'm buying high on Gino, who
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: just beat Aligns terrible defense in Atlanta, Atlanta, terrible defense
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: at home again. He didn't beat Atlanta bumps, and he
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: put up staff. He put up good numbers against them.
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: He got shut down by Denver. Will not shut down.
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: He just didn't do much against Denver in the second half.
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: He did nothing against the fourty niners, right, he put
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: up zero points. The only point they scored was on
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: a blocked field goal. So I kind of get where
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: they're coming from. The Seattle team. It's just, honestly me
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: fade New Orleans like they're they're coming off and they're
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: skipped a bye week right coming back from England. They
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: had option to take a bye week this and no,
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: they're coming off even a longer travel than Seattle is
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: um coming back home to New Orleans. And maybe you're right,
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: maybe like what I'm what I'm overlooking is affect that
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: any Golden is that much of an upgrade over Winston,
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: because again Winston was just a corpseback there. He'd really
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: been doing enough, and we saw any Dolan really turned
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: on that second quarter and kind of going forward against
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: the Vikings. I'm with you, it's a tough one. But
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: to me, I just like the number of the sense
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: I think Gino he'll be able to backdoor. This number
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: just just feels like a Satts team that Yeah, they're
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: strong against the run, but we've seen teams going to
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: move it like Kirk Cousins just moved the ball in
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: this this Satans defense. Um, again, I don't think Gino
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: is as good as Kirk, but it's not that much worse.
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: And he got his weapons a DK metcalf and lock
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: it like those are all good weapons. So maybe me
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: Chad gets scared off of it because again he's hearing
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: noise from people too, and like it's it is. It
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: feels like we're kind of like you just said, we're
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: staying along with the public on this on this Seahawks
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: team where it feels like we much we should maybe
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: jump off. But man, I just got a bad grade
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: on the scenes team. Like they again they're so lucky
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: they have that one win. They stole a week one
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: again to Atlanta because they look like an OH and
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: four team this year. They just things haven't really gone
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: their way in most of these games. So I'm I'm
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: not gonna fight you on a Chad comes Sunday, but
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: I do feel like it's gonna be one of those
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: we're gonna be like fighting about who's gonna be our
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: fifth one in it's gonna be hard to take the
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: Seahawks out. Yeah, all right, well I agree with you. Uh.
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: Next on the list the Houston Texans. Uh, if we
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: can get it at seven and a half, we like
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: it at seven and a half. I think I still
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: like it at seven and a half. But it does
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: feel a little bit like a trappy spot. And even
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: though it's divisional game, the Jaguars all of a sudden,
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: I think are getting the credit they deserve in the market.
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: And I feel like this is a really good team
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: and I love them against the Eagle. I think they
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: could have covered against the Eagles. It was a bad
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: game for Trevor Lawrence. I think they go home and
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: they start to see how good they are and Doug
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: Peterson has them playing and believing. I could just see
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: this becoming a blowout game against a competitive but not
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: talented Texans team. It worries me, Yeah, and you would.
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: You would honestly think that if we if the Jaguars
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: or who we think they are, which is a top five,
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: top six team in the FC right now, this should
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: be what you just talked about. The should be able
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: to come home after a bad loss and dominate a
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: bad team. Just like, again, the Charges were on the
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: road and did it against this team last week. I'm
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: with you, it feels a little yeah, like it doesn't
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: really give me a bunch of confidence bet in the
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: seven and a half. It kind of just feels like
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: I'm going through the motions of something I should do
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: where I'm paying. I'm honestly, I'm willing to pay it
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: that I'm willing to pay to see the Jaguars be
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: the team we think they are, because to me, it's
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: always interests on books in the public move and number
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: after a team loses. So the Jaguars lost, their divisional
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: odds went up got better, means they became more of
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: a favorite to win the AFC South, and the Super
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: Bowl odds got better. So clearly, I think other people
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: are kind of with us now at this point where
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: it's like, okay, they're probably the best in their division.
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: I don't know, it's just hard for me to be like, yeah,
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: take the Jaguars minus seven and a half. We're as
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: a pro just like, yeah, you take that in this position,
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: You take the dog seven and a half a divisional
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: game against a team that who are they to get
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: that kind of number? Like the Jaguars haven't proven it yet.
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: They gotta earn earned to me, earned that number. Um,
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: the only thing that really dominated this year was the Colts,
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: And like, we've kind of seen what the Colts are, right,
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: So yeah, I'm willing to pay for them to prove it.
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: But yeah, sliding out of our contest it seems likely.
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: But again, seven and a half, it's so tempting to
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: put in because it's just that it's just a nice number,
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: Isn't it weird how sometimes we see numbers like this
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: and we know the right side. We go to bet
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: the number and it's a no brainer. We don't care
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: who the teams are, we don't care what the circumstances are.
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: I think this is. You know, we talked about this
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: all the time about our biases getting in the way,
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: and last year that we struggled with this a lot, Right,
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: So all of a sudden we are in love with
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: this Jaguars team. We have been open about it since
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: the season began, our our biases about the potential we
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: see for this team getting in the way of our
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: ability to just neutrally examine a seven and a half
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: and saying, yeah, this is a no brainer. Because of
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: course I should be in the same way the Bears
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: plus seven and a half should be a no brainer
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: against the Vikings. I'm having a really hard time pulling
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: the trigger around that. I think we're paying too much
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: attention to these teams because we're invested in them in
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: different ways. Well, the hard sport for me is I'm
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: trying to find the best five for us in the
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: contest where those are percentage plays, those are numbers I
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: get I gained you or at least above fifty lifetime.
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: Where you just take a team Houston in this position,
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: it's gonna work out for you in the divisional game.
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: We've seen the time and time again, usually these games
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: kind of work out for you. Well, we are getting
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: better than we were last year. Is we would be
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: blindly taking the Commanders this week, and I'm so happy
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: we're not doing it because I've been saying that number
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: NonStop again. I had to had a couple of pros
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: call me on it, but that was one of those
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: as soon as I heard come man, and I just
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: hung up. As soon as I started hearing them talk
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: like like I don't even want to hear it. I
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: don't want to be convinced into it. Um, that's one
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: of those were like, I want to load up on
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: Tennessee every roomor you here is Rivera has lost the
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: locker room and that team is flipped on them and
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: it's proved out. They've had two horrible losses two weeks
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: in a row to get then this divisional foe. Now
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: they're playing a Tennessee team that none of us know
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: how to really feel about. It's just a really weird game.
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: So I would say, me and you last year would
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: have been on this commander's team. I'm just so happy
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: we're both just like, nah, yep, that is that is
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: so true, by the way, right, It's so interest thing though,
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: how there are how we are blending the automatic play
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: based on a number and historical precedent and what the
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: wise guy play should be with what we're seeing on
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: the field and the player personnel and what we've seen
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: on the field with the Commanders and what we've seen
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: from Carson Wentz makes us very shy about pulling the
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: trigger on what should be an automatic play against a
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: mediocre Titans team. Uh. Fascinating. Yeah, I told you though.
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: One of my favorite, like one of the legends of Vegas.
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: My favorite lines the multiple guys are always sat but
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: guys always just saying in the book is hey, hey, assle,
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: I'm wrong for you another time. Don't take it too serious,
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: all right, that's the joke that goes well. At least
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: I know I got a four intent chance. So that's
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: that's the tough part about going on the other side
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: against professional money. Yeah, well we're doing it this week.
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: Speaking up, we talked about Miami Go Fins. Well, we
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: got to talk about that one. What do you want
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: to do there? Chat? Well, I don't want to put
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: in the contest because I want to make it our
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: big balls. Bet you're being a little bit about it.
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: You're scared, and that's when you need big balls. By
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: the way, No, no, no, no, no no, you're scared. No,
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: I'm not. I was scared too when I got woken
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: up here and take the jets. I'm not so scared.
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: I don't have ring nests, I don't pass I got nothing.
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: I got nothing. Okay, I got a twenty pound dog
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: who sleeps in a crate that's covered in the back
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: of the dining room. If we don't have I'm not scared, Okay,
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: I just don't think it's the right side. If you
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: want to make it our big balls better the week,
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: totally fine. I'm not scared either. I'm prepared. That's what
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: I like to think a well. In this case, you
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: know what I think you are. I think you're the bitch.
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: I think you're the one who's so influenced by what
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: everyone else is doing you can't see the forest for
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: the trees. And I'm telling you right now, Miami is
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: the right side of this game. And we are going
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: head to head bet to bet, Sharks and Jets. We
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: are against each other in this game, very god very
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: bad guy. Only we just disagree. But what does it
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: ever work that when you write it with the public.
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: I don't think ever and never literally the definition of
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: stepping in it. No, I'm not. I'm not. I'm not
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: stepping in it. I hate them on such an island
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: here because I hate this Jets bet too. But it's
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: just one of those it feels like I have to
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: make it. It's just a smart side. Let's go big
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: ball better the week Jets plus three? Is it plus
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: three or three and a half? Right now, I'll do three.
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: That's how much of a man I am New York
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: Jets plus three is our big Balls bet of the week. Listen, now,
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: I'll be torn because I always want I always all
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: over again. I root for the show, but if we
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: don't win, I'm not going to be upset. Well, there
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: are no guarantees in life, but this this feels pretty good.
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: Start the NFL week off right with a no sweat,
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: same game parlay every Thursday from fandue, America's number one
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: sports book. It doesn't matter if you're new to FanDuel
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: or already have an account. Every Thursday night, you'll get
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: free bets back if you are NFL same game parlay
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: doesn't hit. Same game parlays are the perfect way to
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: combine your beds for a chance at a bigger payday.
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: For example, tonight, I like the Broncos, the under and
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: Matt Ryan passing yards under Build your own or choose
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: from one of the popular s gps pre built for
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: you and fan Duel's top rated sports book app. However
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: you want to play. You can bet the NFL every
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: Thursday night with no sweat same game parlay, and with
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: FanDuel's new live same game parlays, you can continue building
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: s GPS even after the game has started. Just sign
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: up with Promo Cove Favorites if you don't already have
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: an account that's Promo Core Favorites to get free bets
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: back if you'r s GP doesn't hit make every moment
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: more with fan duel and official sports bet partner of
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: the NFL must be twenty one or older and in
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: select states, three or more legs and minimum one dollar
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: bet required. Refund issued is non withdrawbo free bets that
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: expires seven days after receipt. Max free bet five dollars.
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: Restrictions apply see terms at sportspook dot FanDuel dot com.
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: Gambling Problem Call one eight hundred gambler or visit FanDuel
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: dot com slash rg in Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois,
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: Virginia one eight hundred, next step or text next step
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: to five three three four two in Arizona one eight
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: eight eight seven eight nine seven seven seven seven, or
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: visit c CpG dot org slash chat in Connecticut one
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: eight hundred nine with it in Indiana, k S Gambling
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: Help dot com in Kansas one eight seven seven seven
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: seven zero stop in Louisiana one eight seven seven eight Hope,
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: NY or text Hope, n Y in New York, Tennessee
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: redline is one eight hundred eight eight nine nine seven
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: eight nine one eight hundred five too in Wyoming or
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: visit www. One gambler dot net in West Virginia. The
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: next one on the list is the Browns plus three.
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: Still love it. Hopefully be lucky enough. This is three
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: and a half in our contest because that's what it
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: was for the early part of the week. No brainer.
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: Like even at two and a half, I don't hate it,
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: but like three is the number, Like we play that
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: number every time we've seen it. Now that hopefully it's
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: professional money or not walking in it with all the
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: other squares. But this is a really good spot to
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: take a Cleveland team that just can move the ball.
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: I think the Glaren thing that people have really noticed
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: this week is their defense might be a little suspect.
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: Um you looked at who they played this year. It's
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: been bad quarterbacks. The teams have semi been on move
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: the ball on this Cleveland team. But you know, to me, Chad,
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: I kind of we kind of touched on it. Um
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: I really sure pros I talked through came in heavy
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: on the under in this game for the simple fact
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: they think Nick Chubb's gonna ball control this game. So
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: I feel like they aligned with our view of we're
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: getting plus three with of the all around better healthier team.
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: The only scary part for us as were set, like
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: we're back and we're set against Herbert Me and I
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: don't feel great about that, but playing the numbers, that
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: should be closer to a pick than that plus three,
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: So both of you can still get that plus three
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: out there. Chargers getting way too much credit right now.
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: I think it's numbers down to two and a half. Um,
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: so the money is coming in on the Browns. I
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: think that. Uh, it's a different experience to go on
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: the road at Cleveland against a really talented team in
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: the Browns, then to go win on the road as
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: favorites in Houston against the Texans, and again it was close, right,
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: It was like a three point game. That game was
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: much closer than the final, So you gotta peel it back.
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: Keenan Allen did not practice yesterday with a hamstring injury.
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: It's good for us. Wednesday is usually a big sort
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: of indicator of whether or not you're gonna suit up
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: when it comes to practicing. I think Nick Chubb goes
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: off in this game over eighty six and a half
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: rushing yards. In the app following the Action Network app,
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: you've seen a lot of experts betting on that as
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: as props player props start to roll out um for
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: a lot of these games. So you know, I like
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: the Browns here. I like him a lot. First first
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: bet I made last week, and then I made the
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: Miami Dolphins minus three. Uh, the other game we loved.
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: You talked about it, Rams minus four and a half,
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: all over it. This line's moved up. Wise, guys love it. Uh,
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: great spot for the Rams who have the Cowboys beaten
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: with Cooper Rush. Right, you're gonna make that case for Miami.
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: You can make that case for a lot of teams.
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: Cooper Rush hasn't need any interceptions. Again, I'm stealing this
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: from Stucky from the Action Network pod. You can go
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: back play by play. It's about five picks that should
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: have been if not for defensive penalties or drops by
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: the other team. So this Cowboys team has beaten some
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: teams in chaos, uh, Washington Commanders, Bengals UM during their
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: little streak here Rams offensive line is trash, but I
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: still like the Rams at four and a half year. Yeah. Again,
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: there's a lot of historical stuff backing up of the
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: Cowboys winning a home divisional game by ten or more points.
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: Going on the road is not good for them, McVeigh.
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: After a divisional loss, coming home has been very good
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: for the Rams. So not only are the trends kind
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: of pointing to us taking the Rams, we just like
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: the number again, Dallas. They've had a great run. Usually
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: that's how football is, right, Teams get a nice little run,
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: have a couple of good wins, and then they just
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: have a letdown game. This was this game kind of stinks,
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: so a letdown spot for what you had to talk about.
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: This guy Cooper Rush four starts four and oh going
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: back to last year four no a t s He's
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: so do man like the guy. We joke all the time.
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: We have a luck metric here at the Action Network
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: that people great out. He's gonna be way up there
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: right now, Dallas. It feels like their bounces are just
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: going their way. Um, this is uh a nice matchup
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: for the Rams and the sense that I get people
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: are worried about their offensive line woes. I just I
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: just see this team able to move the ball against
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: this Dallas team that has kind of looked better than
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: they really are right after playing a Carson wentz Na
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: Daniel Jones. Now they're playing Super Bowl winning quarterback and
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: Matthew Stafford a guy that can really move the ball.
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: So we saw him able to move the ball against
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: the four nine or is you just couldn't finish the drives.
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: I don't think it'll be the same thing for this
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: Ramp team this week. Um, it does suck that already
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: bounced up the five and a half. It was like,
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: nice number four and a half. I would still take it,
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: right We talked a lot the time. I think six
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: is such a key number. I wouldn't mind taking it.
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: But it is brutal where all the money, all the
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: tickets are pouring in on Dallas and they moved that
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: line off sharp money. You hope maybe it could go
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: back after the public bets even more this weekend on Dallas.
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: But I'd wait, honest, I would wait. I don't I
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: gain't see you jumping up the six right now. I
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: would just keep waiting, hoping you get back to four
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: or four and a half. The other game that we loved.
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: And if we haven't mentioned any of the game, the
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: game that you still want to talk about it, we
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: should do it after Ravens minus three. Love love this spot.
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: I love the Ravens Here. Ravens are couple of players
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: away from being four now. And this is a team
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: that I think is devalued right now versus a team
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: in the Bengals that still has a little bit of
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: Super Bowl bounce and now was one a couple of
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: games in a row last time we saw them, they
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: won big. Come on, yeah, I'm more waiver. Don't fucking waiver, dude,
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: this is your Simon says, I'm already already bet it
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: mumple of times. There's no no going back. I'm invested,
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: um the more. The biggest pass for me right now
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: is who who is playing for the Ravens. We keep
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: getting every time I check their injury report. Are they
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: still starting to left a rookie a left tackle? Like again,
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: if you're if you're waiting on this number, I can't
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: see this get in before Like the worst case, I
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: see this getting back to minus three and a half.
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: Grab the three if you can, um, But again, another
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: one of those. I don't mind wait until Sunday to
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: you see the injury report. Me chatter will be on
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: this one. Like I love the Ravens the spot. I
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: think it's a good number. I would take it up
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: to three and a half, but hopefully you can just
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: get the three. It's been out there for a couple
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: of days now. Um, just a bad position for this
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: Bangles team to be in against the Ravens team that
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: kind of desperately needs this one right there. They're there,
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: they're going through it right now. They've they've been getting
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: interviewed all week, um about letting that Bills one really
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: slip away, which is again, it's not hyperbably that one
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: could have decided to one seed. Like both these teams
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: we expect to be at the top level. If they
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: both finished the year with the same record, the tiebreaker
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: goes to the Bills. They won the head to head,
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: so that was such a big game last week. I
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: just see them using that as fuel of this upcoming week.
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: But the fact that every guy I've heard is on
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: the Ravens with us, Chad, that's my paulse Like everyone
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: we work with feels like they're in behind with us
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: on the Ravens, which is can be great, like we
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: work with really smart guys. That's also scary where it's like,
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: is this one too easy because it feels that way
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: right like we're getting on our value team at a
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: field goal with the best kicker of football. Kind of
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: feels like we're stealing money here with the Ravens. But um,
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: I already took the position that I really can't get out.
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: I'll probably just keep betting it at three. It's just
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: such a good number in this game. I can't get out,
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: stuck in a moment, get out of it. So my
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: last one was gonna try to convince you on and
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: I know there's no web donut, but because it's so chalky,
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: talk to me about this Eagle's brother, you know what.
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: I'm coming around, coming around, good, coming around. I've been
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: watching more Hurts interviews because that guy is a cool
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: as a cute cumber. I love Jalen Hurts. I I
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: feel like there's some real disarray on the Cardinals right now.
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: Cliff Kingsbridge is not a very good coach, and this
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: team continues to get pummeled in the first half. It's
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: like he it's almost like he doesn't really know how
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: to prepare for the game, doesn't know how to do
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: anything to get the team ready until he sees what's
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: happening the field. Then clearly he's good at making adjustments
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: because this team is really good in the second half.
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: That's what gives me pause is that the Eagles tend
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: to let teams back in it, and the Eagles tend
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: to be a great first half team. So you're getting
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: a great first half team against the great second half team.
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: With the second half team on the road and a
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: lot of variants in the quarterback who can sneak away
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: and make plays, they can keep a game closer than
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: it should be. That's my biggest pause. It's fair. So again,
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: if you're feeling like Chat is, just do Eagles first half,
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: then I think it's minus three and a half at
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: plus money or minus three and minus one. Just do that.
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: If you're kind of the same botus Chat, I'm more
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: look at it as all right, I've seen them play
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: four games now on a team that everyone coming to
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: the airs down. We're all down on this team right
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: coming to the year. Just the Mojile felled off of Arizona,
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: we all felt like they overachieved last year, and so's
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: me natural aggression for this team. Yeah, cha had neither
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: of us had hasn't had them in the playoffs when
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: we did before the year or seven from the NFC,
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: So I was luckily down and coming in on him.
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: This year. We didn't play two home games. They play
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: against the Chiefs. They lost, No big deal. I was
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: Week one. The Chiefs are probably the best, one of
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: the best teams in football. In Week three, they played
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: the Rams at home. They were down, uh what was
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: a twenty to six heading to the fourth quarter. I
• 33:20
  Speaker 1: think they got a late touchdown so it made a
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: twelve game. So again, they're two home games. They got
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: dominated by the Ramps, who we're just talking about. I
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: don't think they're that good, and absolutely dominated by the
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: Chiefs that we do think is a good team. Then
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: they went on the road. They beat Carolina, which we
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: all think is the joke. They beat Vegas, right, they
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: had that insane comeback. They're down twenty three to three.
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: It came all the way back against Vegas. So I'm
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: looking at a team that, yeah, they've been able to
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: do art against bad teams and have crazy comebacks. Again,
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: I'm not here to shoot on Josh McDaniels. Is he
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: really that good of a coach? Certainly not in Nick
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: Sirianni's level right now. So I look at the Egos
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: team that's got a really good defense, a really good
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: head coach, and then an offense I can move the
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: ball no weather, they're indoors this week against an Arizona team.
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: I love it under six and it's like, my again,
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: my biggest pause is this is another game like I'm
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: throwing the Eagle's money line in there with Tampa and
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: throwing them in there with Green Bay like you're giving
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: You're giving people free money. It feels like when you're
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: moving that number under six because everyone's gonna tease the
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: Eagles down. Everyone's gonna have them in a teaser. So
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: that's probably my biggest pause. But again, chalk does win.
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: You're scared, Like Chad just said, just go first half
• 34:27
  Speaker 1: the Eagles four Oh this year a t S first half,
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: you only need to go money line there. Cardinals had
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: the worst scoring discrepancy and of all teams of football
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: in the first half. I don't think it's scored a
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: single point in the first quarter this year. Maybe it's
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: three points. They kicked one field goal in four games
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: in the first quarter. They're bad. They've got major issues
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: in Arizona. We're talked about last show and seven a
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: t s oh and seven straight up Arizona as well
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: their last seven home games. Um, it just feels like,
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: get five and a half. We're getting a good number
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: and like I know, maybe two pros again out of
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: like fifty the twenty guys I talked to that liked
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: the Arizona and I asked them why, it's kind of
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: what Chad just said. They're like, well, Eagles second half,
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: Kyler Murray's second half, he'll just turn it on. Maybe
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: he'll get the back door, which is all fun and well,
• 35:12
  Speaker 1: so I get if Chad doesn't let me put in
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: the contest, but to me, you have to bet this
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: first half in the Eagles. This is a really nice matchup.
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: UM on a team that literally dominates first half. First,
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: a team that has been horrible all season in the
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: first half. I'm surprised. I thought I didn't know what
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: you were going to bring up. I'm surprised you to
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: bring up the Raiders or the Bears. Tell me about
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: the because Raiders we had a long conversation about the
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: other day. Yeah, and Raiders again. Someone called me out
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: and said, well, they got absolutely blown out last year.
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: Like I think my Home's beat him by forty in
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: both games. And it's like we'll go look at the
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: year before, like Derek Carr won a game against them,
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: and I think they lost the other game by six points. Um,
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: I know historically right, that guy is right where Derek
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: Carr isn't fairly well against my homes. Uh, statistically, mahomes
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: and primetime games should be an auto play. He I
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: think I haven't wrote about it. He's been unbelievable in
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: these primetimes. The hell meet Chad just got smoked by
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: him last week on a Sunday night primetime game, leaking
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: confidence like a mother on that one. Like I was
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: excited to bet it. Fuck it. I'll just do the
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: over and just be happy with that because I just
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: see these two teams putting up points. I still like
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: the Raiders offense. My issue is like, how am I
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: gonna find stops on their defense? Like the only thing
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: that stops the Chief seems like it is my homes.
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: Like that game against the Colts that was not the
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: Colts winning, that was Kelsey dropping a touchdown the back
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: of the end zone of up eleven with two minutes
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: to go. So it's I'm with the fans of the
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: show being like, please don't make me bet the Raiders. Fine,
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: I won't. I won't do it. We won't have him
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: in the contest. Seven a half though, so tempting because
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: that's what it's gonna be most likely. I see this
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: never again the seven and a half, but stayed away
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: from that one. There's I I feel like you're gonna
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: come to me Sunday morning. I probably able to get
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: convinced on it because I'm with you chatted. It's like
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: there's just something about these teams coming up from back
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: from London playing at home. I just think it's a
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: bad spot for them. But again, the biggest pause with
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: the Bears team is we don't know we're getting from
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: fields like this team they're just not competitive, like even
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: when they're in games. That's my fear. It's like, I
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: don't know if if we were going to take the
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: Bears ignore honestly be a bet on fading Kirk right
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: because it's such a big spread for a guy in
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: a divisional game. But I got no numbers the backup
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: take them here like this line to me is good.
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: I have it at six or seven, Like that's a
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: fair price. Um, I just I don't know. There's other
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: games I'd rather take right that happen to be sweating
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: the Bears and your boy Fields. The interesting thing about
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: the Bears to me, everybody in the league knows that
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: they can't pass right now, Cooper Cup has more receptions
• 37:53
  Speaker 1: than Justin Fields has completions. Okay, but the Bears, even
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: if everybody knows what they're gonna do, are still averaging
• 38:05
  Speaker 1: five point two yards per carry, which is top five
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: in the NFL. And if if you had said to me, well,
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: the Bears are the number one team in rushing in
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: terms of total rushing yards, I'd be like, who gives
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: a fuck? Like they're running at fifty times a game.
• 38:21
  Speaker 1: You know it doesn't matter. But everyone knows what they're
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: doing and they're still averaging more than five yards per carry.
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: That means it could be a much sort of faster game.
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: I don't mean fast paced in terms of scoring, but
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: the clock will run more because the Bears will have
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: longer drives or be running it more. Um, that doesn't
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: bode well for a potentially big number like seven and
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: a half. Yeah, I would say, also teams, you're happy
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: you'll let other teams run the ball, right It's it's
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: one of those things where you like, I'm with you.
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: The Bears have actually been on move the ball. They
• 38:56
  Speaker 1: just aren't finishing any of these drives. Like they get
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: down there and you, oh, it is a bearrass fan.
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: If it's third and eight, third and nine, that's it
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: either kicking a field goal or you're not going to
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: pick up that first down. It's just that's the that's
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: the problem just in fields right now. And he's not
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: running it, which I don't really get, Like he is
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: such insane athleticism. I thought this team would roll in
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: now the pocket more and get him moving. Um yeah. Agin,
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: it's just a weird week for me where it's like
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: there's dogs I do like, and there's just something I
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: don't trust because I don't really know what to make
• 39:25
  Speaker 1: of these teams still, Like I just don't know. Again,
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: I should know what the Bears are. They're a bad
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: offense that likes to run the ball. I just see
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: so much potential in fields. I just can't really pigeonhold
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: them like that where it's like I see that they
• 39:37
  Speaker 1: have more to offer. Um, you did get who the
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: hell do you guys get back this week to kill Harry?
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: Some receiver came back. I know it's all irrelevant, but
• 39:45
  Speaker 1: it's just like, at least they're getting somebodies back in
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: the mix of guys who we know that connection catch
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: the ball um because we're not just seeing from the
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: Bears offense. I can't do it. Yeah, They're just they're
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: so bad right now. I just can't put them in
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: all right, U, All right, Well, look we've narrowed it down.
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: I would say our list currently looks like Seattle, Houston, Brown's, Rams, Ravens,
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: potentially Eagles, and you know, we'll see where the lines
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: fall on Sunday when it's time to put the picks
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: in again. Follow the phapes five in the Action Network app.
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: We'll have everything in there locked in by noon. Also
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: follow the favorite podcasts. Keep up with Our Foxhold our
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: Simon says, our exact decision, our Scooch Roulette, which it
• 40:35
  Speaker 1: is time to make a choice. When all hope is lost,
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: all this left is relief. Let's play Roulette, Simon. We
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: both lost last week. I am winning on the year.
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: I'm three and one. I believe you are two and two.
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: So it's time for me to make a scooch roulette pick.
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: M hmm, it's tough. It is tough. You know what
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: we should do? Here we go, We're so on opposite sides.
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: While you're making the big balls better the week the Jets,
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: we might as well make screwt roulette Jets and Dolphins. No,
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: I've learned not to put all my eggs in one
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: basket after the bucks last week. A coward, So your
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: total coward, simon hunter, professional coward. Not. I already know
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: I already won those bets. I'm happy to do that.
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: But I had a fun I had a fun move
• 41:30
  Speaker 1: for the scuotulet. Now you're throwing it off al well, No,
• 41:33
  Speaker 1: that's fine, fine, t you know what, I'm taking Miami
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: and a half. I am all in Chad minus three
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: and a half Miami, I'll take. I'll do it. That's
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: fine because you took the big balls at my plus three.
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: Because I'm a man, so I'm gonna do another manly
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: thing here, and I'm gonna take the Bills minus fourteen
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: and scot Roulette. That's how much of a man I am. No.
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: I just looked at this line. I was just thinking myself,
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: what is the one game that no one will expect
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: me betting for scruture letting? That's gotta be it. Who's
• 42:06
  Speaker 1: gonna who's gonna think I would take a fourteen point favorite? Um,
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: literally make the line fourteen like there's no value here.
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: I just I love this spot for this Bills team.
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: I know Brandon Anderson, one of our colleagues, gave out,
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: what the hell it was a Bill second half? That's
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: fun too. If you don't if you don't want to
• 42:23
  Speaker 1: pay the minus fourteen, I think, um, it might be
• 42:26
  Speaker 1: minus six for them. Uh. Second half Bills this year
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: have not been well done well the first half. They've
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: actually last year they're incredible first half. This year, they've
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: coming out a little slower. If you want to do that,
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: go ahead take the second half. I'm not scared of
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: the fourteen. I just see that. I just see them
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: rolling offensively and defensively. It's a great matchup for this
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: Bills team. We talked about this earlier in the week.
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: We settled on Bills as our survivor. I'd still go
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: with the Bills as our survivor maybe the Jacks, but
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: I'd probably go with Bills. Yeah, I mean another one,
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: and again I didn't use the Green Bay and I
• 43:01
  Speaker 1: thought about that. Right, we already know the circle data.
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: These favorites do really well winning straight up in England
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: Green Bay against the either banged up Daniel Jones or
• 43:10
  Speaker 1: no Daniel Jones. That could be a good spot. We
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: were just talking about Tom Brady Tenant, oh, straight up
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: tennano um. In a position after losing two straight games,
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: you expect the Bucks to win. So if you want
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: to save the Bills for any reason, go ahead. I
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: just I'd rather use the Bills here just because their
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: division is so tough. I don't know when we could
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: use them again. Should we talk about a money line?
• 43:31
  Speaker 1: Who this week was really hard for me? Like a
• 43:35
  Speaker 1: couple that were easy obviously the Browns. Chad just wanted
• 43:38
  Speaker 1: to open like the Jets, Seahawks. I like those three,
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: like right away the other ones I throw and just
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: because I think you have a good chance of an upset.
• 43:47
  Speaker 1: My fourth lag and now pains me to do it
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: because the Jags are a team, but the Texas gotta
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: get their first one. Eventually they're owing three on one
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: some day. Texas are gonna hit so for my biggest
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: dog this week, got I'm gonna of the Texans for
• 44:01
  Speaker 1: the fifth leg. I'll go with the Bears like that
• 44:03
  Speaker 1: at a big number against his Flightkings team. All Right,
• 44:06
  Speaker 1: I feel like you and I are misaligned on a
• 44:09
  Speaker 1: lot of different things this week. I know I'm feeling good.
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: I feel like I should double all my bets. I
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: could main one friend. Good luck to you. We've locked
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: it in. We've locked in the big balls, We've locked
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: in the final five. Ish well updated in the Action
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: Network app. Watch The Son Convinced Me. You'll probably get
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: a little bit of an idea of where we're leaning
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: if you watch The Sound Convinced Me Sunday mornings, eleven
• 44:32
  Speaker 1: am Eastern. Watch it in the Action Network app. It's
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: really cool. You can do picture and picture and then
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: while we're talking, while Me, Sean Croner, Chris RayBan Simon
• 44:42
  Speaker 1: are talking, you can immediately go make some of your bets.
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: You can watch it on YouTube. You can watch it
• 44:48
  Speaker 1: on Twitter at Action Network h Q. Friday is the
• 44:52
  Speaker 1: start of the Major League Baseball Playoffs. That means starting Friday.
• 44:56
  Speaker 1: Action Networks baseball podcast Payoff Pitch. We'll have new episodes
• 44:59
  Speaker 1: bay sickly every weekday through the World Series. So if
• 45:03
  Speaker 1: you want to bet some playoff baseball, check out the
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: Playoff Pitch podcast. This has been the favorites from the
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: Volume podcast Network. On him Chad Millman. He is Simon
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: Hunter for a producer Matt Mitchell. Download us from Apple
• 45:17
  Speaker 1: podcasts from Spotify wherever you get your podcast. Rate review, subscribe,
• 45:22
  Speaker 1: leave us five stars, say whatever you want. Feedback is
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: a gift. Until next time. I Love you.