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The 4-Year Cycle Might Be DEAD? | Simply Originals · Simply Bitcoin

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  Today is CPI day and everyone is asking is the four year Bitcoin
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  cycle about to hit, crushing the markets and the Bitcoin price?
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  Or is the breakout just getting started?
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  Here's what's different this time.
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  We've never had raging institutional Bitcoin adoption,
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  nation states loading up on Bitcoin, and the Fed is on the
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  edge of flipping from rate hikes to a string of historic cuts.
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  If those cuts hit in September, after Bitcoin already survived
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  to the most restricted financial environment in its history,
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  we're talking napalm on a bonfire, the death of the four
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  year cycle possible, a prolonged super cycle on the table.
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  And with Powell's replacement coming in 2026 and Trump pushing
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  for massive rate cuts, we might be starting a liftoff event like
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  Bitcoin has never seen. So strap in, this is Sophie with
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  Bitcoin. Simply, let's go breaking news.
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  CPI just dropped and July inflation came in at 2.7%.
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  That's lower than the 2.8% that the market was expecting.
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  And you know what that means? the Fed just got the green light
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  to start cutting rates in September.
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  Yep, cuts in September are still on. the Fed just got more
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  confidence to open the liquidity tops.
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  Short term, this is bullish for risk assets, especially Bitcoin.
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  Meanwhile, whales are already taking advantage.
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  David Bailey is literally buying $760 million worth of Bitcoin
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  today and the market dips. Idiots handing over their
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  Bitcoin to whales and institutions.
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  For the love of God please stop feeding the whales.
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  Now let's talk about the fight breaking out over the four year
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  cycle. Historically it's been simple,
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  having bull run, crash, slow recovery, next having repeat or
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  green, green, green, red if you so prefer.
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  But this time the buyers aren't just retail FOMO.
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  We've got ETFs, treasuries, sovereign wealth funds, 4, O1,
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  KS and pensions. All buying these types of things
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  are white. Not only Pierre Rashard and Tom
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  Lee, but also Bitwise CIO Matthew Hogan is also saying the
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  four year cycle is done. Four year cycle.
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  Is it over? Yeah, it's over.
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  OK, hold on. Explain Well, I mean, so, so my
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  view of the four year cycle is you have a catalyst that brings
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  new pools of capital in so 2011 it was the launch of Coinbase
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  retail investors could buy Bitcoin new capital then
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  leverage builds up and eventually it pops. 2015 the
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  introduction of Ethereum 2019 D 5/20/23 it was Grayscale winning
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  its lawsuit in March against the SEC.
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  We're going to get ETFs bringing in capital.
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  The reason I, I think it's probably not going to play out
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  over 4 years is a, I think that's a longer inflow of
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  capital than retail hot ball of money, which is the past three.
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  And then secondly, we have yet another of those catalysts in
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  November, which is the election completely changing the game in
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  terms of institutional adoption. So even if the ETF driven cycle
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  would have built up, leveraged and popped and receded, we have
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  this second tidal wave that's just so much bigger than that
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  first one, it's going to overwhelm it.
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  So will there be, you know, pull backs?
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  We're seeing one now as leverage comes out of the system, of
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  course, but the election was such a sea change that it's like
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  it doesn't matter. Yes, there may be this, this,
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  this natural thing, but it's just going to get bulldozed
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  over. That doesn't mean we've repealed
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  pull backs, but I think this cycle is going to be much longer
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  than people think. I definitely don't think this
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  pull back is the end. I think 2025 will be a great
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  year. I think 2026 will be a great
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  year. I think 2027 will be a great
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  year and we'll see about 2028. Max Keiser says I'll do you one
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  better. How about the age of central
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  banks is over for the next 500 years?
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  Can you? Explain what you mean.
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  Sure, of course I can explain what I mean.
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  You have a world where the train is leaving the station.
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  You know, Bitcoin is changed everything fundamentally and
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  those with coin or the coiners versus those without coins, the
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  no coiners, there will be a split in, in in the world and
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  society and we won't be looking at the world in terms of nation
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  states anymore. I think the nation state becomes
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  passe or disintermediated. Central banks are obliterated,
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  and you have the global tribe of millions of Bitcoiners who have
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  all the money, and then they'll be everybody else who doesn't
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  have. They'll just be living in a
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  different reality. And that template will be set
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  for 500 years because Bitcoin is perfect money, and it's taken a
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  million years to get to Bitcoin. We finally achieved it, and now
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  it's a day of reckoning. If you have no coin, you'll
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  probably be living in the equivalent of hell.
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  If you have coin, you will be living in heaven.
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  And the truth is, the halving might be the spark, but global
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  liquidity is the oxygen. With rate cuts on deck and
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  global demand surging, we might not see brutal bear markets
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  anymore, just consolidation in a bigger super trend up.
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  As Michael Saylor said, winter is cancelled. 0 or 1000 to 20
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  and then back down to three or four and then up to 50 and then
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  back down to 15 and now up to 110.
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  Like when does it drop again? Winners not coming back, we're
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  past that. We're past that phase.
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  If bitcoins not going to 0, it's going to $1,000,000.
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  And you have all the evidence you need to determine that,
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  right? The president of the United
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  States has determined he supports Bitcoin, the cabinet
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  supports Bitcoin. Scott Peasant supports Bitcoin.
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  Paul Atkins has shown himself to be an enthusiastic believer of
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  Bitcoin and digital assets. Ken Taz at CFTC feels the same.
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  Ray the The banks are going to custody Bitcoin.
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  Bitcoin is has gotten through its riskiest period.
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  The accounting has been corrected.
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  There's now only 450 Bitcoin a day available for Sale by
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  natural sellers. That's the miners.
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  At this level, that works out to about $50 million of Bitcoin
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  available for sale every day. If that $50 million is bought,
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  then the price has got to move up to find any natural, any, any
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  seller that's price sensitive. Now, if you do the math, you'll
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  actually see the Bitcoin treasury companies by themselves
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  for buying the entire natural supply.
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  Yeah, BlackRock and the ETFs are buying another measure of that,
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  and we've got nation state actors coming into the space.
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  So I think when Bitcoin rallies, if it surges to 500,000 or
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  $1,000,000, then maybe we could talk about it crashing down by a
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  $200,000 a coin. But at the current price levels,
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  it only takes $50,000,000 to turn the entire drive shaft of
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  the crypto economy. One turn and you've got the
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  Trump Media Organization announcing 2 1/2 billion.
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  You've got GameStop announcing 500 million.
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  You've got my company that's raising billions and billions of
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  dollars. So the writing is on the wall.
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  Bitcoins moving higher. Let's take a quick look at the
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  scoreboard this morning. Metaplanet just bought 518 more
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  Bitcoin, now holding 18,113 Bitcoin passing Trump Media
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  Norway's sovereign wealth fund boosted Bitcoin exposure up 192%
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  this year to 7161. Bitcoin in Michael Saylor's
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  strategy is now sitting on $30 billion of unrealized profit, 42
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  times Michael Bury's Big Short win.
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  Oh, and Fox Business says trillions could flow into
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  Bitcoin as major banks open trading.
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  Trillions of dollars in assets under management and registered
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  reps all over the country. Financial advisors can now put
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  people in Bitcoin. We knew it was going to make it
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  go up. We knew the Trump administration
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  was basically friendly to crypto.
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  This was such an inevitable move.
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  That's why it's gone higher now. That's probably why it's going
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  to continue to go higher because Bank of America, for example,
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  the biggest bank, has not yet made that decision.
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  And they are bound to. Whale addresses with over 100
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  Bitcoin new all time high. They're scooping like it's an
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  all you can eat SAP buffet. So while the institutions are
• 8:43
  stacking, you need to make sure that your Bitcoin doesn't become
• 8:47
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• 8:51
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• 8:57
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• 9:02
  the headaches. If you don't hold it, you don't
• 9:04
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• 9:05
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• 9:09
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• 9:12
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• 9:59
  get 0.25% off their first loan. And here's where it gets wild.
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  the Fed is about to go from the most aggressive hiking cycle in
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  decades to a string of cuts. Trump's economic team is already
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  talking historic cuts once Powell is gone.
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  That's rocket fuel after Bitcoin has nearly doubled from its last
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  cycle without any rate cuts. Jason Pizzino says $340,000
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  Bitcoin this cycle would break history.
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  And while it's a big ask, it's not insane.
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  That's a $6.7 trillion market cap, still less than 1/3 of
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  gold. And over the past five years,
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  Bitcoin has crushed every asset class with a 58% compound annual
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  growth rate. Let's wrap with the massive
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  shift happening right now. Fingers crossed the reverse
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  Kramer effect is not in effect here.
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  And yes, that Kramer now says that Bitcoin can survive the
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  financial Armageddon. Jim, Bitcoins on the move today.
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  A lot of the crypto stocks as well.
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  We're not quite back to 123K. Just continues to be any time
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  you ever hear about what size the the deficit is or David, you
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  know that the trillions of dollars in the interest has made
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  a lot of younger people feel you know this and Ethereum are a
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  better place to be. I'm a huge believer in this, by
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  the way, because I have very little faith that we're going to
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  be able to grow our way out of. I cannot think about what's how
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  we're going to grow our way out of our situation yet.
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  Maybe. You mean?
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  Our our debt to GDP I've. Not I've not been able to figure
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  out a way. So it's a great hedge against
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  the IT. Conceivably is if there is.
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  But if there's financial Armageddon, Bitcoin hangs in
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  there. You think?
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  Yeah, I do. Jack Dorsey's Block is launching
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  a full stack Bitcoin banking suite.
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  Blue Origin is taking Bitcoin for space travel, literally to
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  the moon. They still have to get to orbit,
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  so there's that. But hey, it's something nations,
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  corporations and Wales are buying faster than miners can
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  produce. Today's CPI number could be the
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  match that lights the most explosive Bitcoin breakout in
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  history. The four year cycles may or may
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  not be dead. We'll find out likely between
• 12:07
  September and November. But Bitcoin ceiling, which
• 12:10
  actually doesn't exist, just got a whole lot higher.
• 12:14
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• 12:29
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• 12:32
  Don't blink, don't sell your stack and for the love of
• 12:35
  Satoshi, don't feed the whales. This is Sophie with Bitcoin.
• 12:40
  Simply Happy stacking.