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Mega Bill Passes!✅Crypto Market Weekend Rally? · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:06
  Speaker 1: Breaking news right now. The megabill is incoming. Could this
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: mean a huge rally that is setting up for it?
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: My name is Paul Barrel, Welcome back into the show.
• 0:13
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• 0:15
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• 0:45
  Speaker 1: reward to get started. All right, so you guys have
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: heard that. Of course, Hakim Jeffries was trying to hold
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: this off, and in fact he did break a record
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: of trying to hold this vote off, but yielded just
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: here just a few minutes ago, and of course that
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: changes things dramatically. Let me kind of look in on
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: the live stream right here, Mike Johnson right there is
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: now starting to read into the vote, and we will
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: most likely get a final vote which we'll push this
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: megabill over the finish line, which will absolutely rocket the markets.
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: I think we are going to see some pretty interesting
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: things going forward. Bitcoin, of course now dancing with one
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: hundred and ten, slipping right under the jobs report, and
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: this was a beat, even though there are some data
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: points in here that I want to showcase that maybe
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: is a little bit misleading on how jobs are looking
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: for the year and whyechair Pal needs to be cutting
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: asap before we get into some trouble here. Other things
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: that are happening. Of course, you've got us home prices
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: the highest in history. This of course is getting into
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: what could be a new bubble. Now. The other thing
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: you have to consider is the amount of buyers versus
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: sellers right now, less buyers than there are sellers, which
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: is putting some price some price pressure on the real
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: estate market, which is putting some price pressure on the
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: real estate market. So be on the lookout for that
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: as housing will be a play a big role into
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: the economy over the next half of the year. All
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: of this centered around rate cuts, because remember, if the
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: rate cuts come in, real estate rates will go down
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: and again buyers will start coming back into the market. Here,
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: of course, is President Trump saying Chair Powell needs to
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: go and resign immediately. Some of this has been because
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: of the accusation of him lying to Congress. Many of
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: that has been pushed around it. Of course, we had
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: some people over at the US Federal Housing and Fannymak
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: Coalition to basically say, hey, yes, we need to investigate
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: Chair Powell because of his statements. There here's a clip
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: that kind of explains it a little bit more. Take
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: a look this morning.
• 2:41
  Speaker 2: Bill Polti from the FHFA is demanding that Ja Powell
• 2:46
  Speaker 2: resign immediately because of this two and a half billion
• 2:48
  Speaker 2: dollar project on a new FED headquarters. Do you want
• 2:52
  Speaker 2: to see j Powell resign?
• 2:55
  Speaker 3: Look? I think that we have been trying to get
• 2:59
  Speaker 3: way for an abuse out of the system. So that
• 3:04
  Speaker 3: is it healthy for the Fed to get their spending
• 3:08
  Speaker 3: under control, just like everybody else in this time of
• 3:12
  Speaker 3: belt tightening and right sizing the federal government.
• 3:15
  Speaker 2: Sure, so would you want to see him resign?
• 3:19
  Speaker 3: I want to see the FED right size their budget.
• 3:23
  Speaker 2: And yet your name was on a list apparently for
• 3:26
  Speaker 2: the President considering you to run the federal Reserve. Is
• 3:29
  Speaker 2: that a job you would like?
• 3:31
  Speaker 3: We have a lot of great candidates for the federal Reserve.
• 3:35
  Speaker 3: I think I have the best job in Washington. I
• 3:37
  Speaker 3: get to interact with the President. The cabinet that he's
• 3:41
  Speaker 3: chosen is fantastic, and being part of that cabinet is
• 3:45
  Speaker 3: the dream of a lifetime for me. But I will
• 3:48
  Speaker 3: go where the President thinks that I am best suited.
• 3:51
  Speaker 2: Has he asked you to potentially take on that role, Marie,
• 3:55
  Speaker 2: I'm not going to reveal private conversations, but I'll tell you.
• 3:59
  Speaker 3: There are a lot of good, strong candidates and we
• 4:03
  Speaker 3: get to hopefully fill two seats next year.
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: That's right, all right? So Maria really kind of grilling
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: Scott Best and they're trying to get an answer from him.
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: He's not given it up. And of course you have
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: to look at some other things that are impending on
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: the economy right now. The big jobs data that just
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: came in, and this was the economy adding one hundred
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: and forty seven job forty seven thousand jobs in June,
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: which was above the expectations of one hundred and eleven.
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: And just so we're clear, guys, unemployment does fall down
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: to four point one, below the expectation of four point three.
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: But the real numbers looking forward is how much of
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: these jobs year over year are we growing? Because there's
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: a lot of things that are in the job market
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: that I think is still being hidden. And I put
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: out a tweet that kind of broke this down a
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: little differently. It was the US economy adding the one
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: forty seven which was in June. But if you look
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: at the real story, the twenty twenty four average US
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: averaged an average of one hundred and sixty eight thousand
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: jobs per month. That was last year, okay, twenty five
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: on year to date, if you just look at the
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: averages that we are in so far, just the first
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: six months, we are now at one hundred and twenty
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: four thousand. This is a significant slowdown compared to last year.
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: And just remember there's another six hundred and thirty thousand
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: workers coming into the market each year. That's new workers
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: that are Americans coming in looking for work. And that
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: is a problem because it starts to imbalance the job
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: market overall. All Right, So with that I want to
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: take a look at how this may play out from
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: a rally standpoint, meaning we hit the megabill jobs numbers
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: are not necessarily so I think they're softening considerably. I'm
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: curious to see how the Fed's going to respond to
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: this in July's FED meeting. But here's Tom Lee talking
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: about how this V shape recovery could respond. Take a look.
• 5:46
  Speaker 4: Because as we're starting the month at July and at
• 5:49
  Speaker 4: the S and P five hundred is up five percent
• 5:51
  Speaker 4: year to date, I think investors are looking at the
• 5:55
  Speaker 4: rest of the year and are quite skeptical because they're saying, well,
• 5:59
  Speaker 4: perhaps President Trump's not going to extend the tariff exemptions
• 6:03
  Speaker 4: in July. The FED has a meeting at the end
• 6:06
  Speaker 4: of this month, and I think despite the fact that
• 6:09
  Speaker 4: there's favorable seasonals for the month, I think investors want
• 6:13
  Speaker 4: to still sort of not own the stock market. And
• 6:16
  Speaker 4: I think that's one of the reasons this is the
• 6:17
  Speaker 4: most hated V shaped rally really in the last few years.
• 6:22
  Speaker 4: All Right, so you're saying a still a bit of
• 6:23
  Speaker 4: a bears sentiment according to your research, about seven trillion
• 6:26
  Speaker 4: dollars of cash on the sideline.
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: All Right, hatch funds also have increased gross leverages this
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: month at the fastest pace since twenty twenty two. Now,
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: one thing that Tom Lee did say in that clip
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: is that when you look at tariffs, and remember the
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: chair Pale has been really kind of hinging everything on
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: tariffs because he believes that's an inflation, you know, juggernaut
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: that's coming at him. If in fact, that we get
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: the megabill through which it's going to happen today, then
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: are we going to see tariffs subside away? If they do.
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: If Trump says, Okay, yeah, we don't need any more tariffs,
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: We're just doing fine with what we have, that would
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: immediately give no ammunition to the FED. Including the softer
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: job market considerably lower than last year and most likely
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: on a down trend for the remainder of the year,
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: and inflation holding, things could be looking that way. PUBLICA
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: traded companies now have purchased more Bitcoin than ETFs for
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: the third consecutive quarter. This is another rising indicator around bitcoin.
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: Of course, we haven't seen massive moves on this. Other
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: companies that are playing the eighth game Sharplink Gaming, we've
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: talked about this. This trades under s bet also goes
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: out and now becomes the number one Ethereum holder, including
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: over the foundation. So big news there, And I think
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: the other thing that kind of adjacent to that, remember
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: that Tom Lee also became the chair of a company
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: that's also doing that, Meaning we're going to see more
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: companies that get into ethereum very quickly as a strategy.
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: US tech stocks feel like they're stoppable. We're still seeing
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: an up. Only three stocks in Vidia, Microsoft and Apple
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: all reflected half of the total. Also, we're getting three
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: trillion market cap recovery since April is low, so much
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: of this still in play. I still think there's a
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: lot of capital that's going to probably start going into
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: risk assets very soon, especially it starts to see movie
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: money coming off the sidelines. President Trump also announced a
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: trade deal with Vietnam, so another trade deal in the books.
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: Question is is can he get the next one in,
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: which is going to be India, And I think that's
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: the one that is going to be significant because obviously
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: India major trade partner. This is cool too because even
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: Bessett was saying this right here is they can't believe
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: what we're getting. These are deals like they've never seen
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: before so, and if you look at the amount of
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: revenue that has been generated off of Taro's, it's surprising
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: the amount of revenue that has been coming in. And
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: I think as we look forward, does this continue through
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: the rest of the year, and then who knows where
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: it's going to go from there. Foreign investors are now
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: diversifying out of US stocks. Investors for overceives with drew
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: about five billion from US equity at atfs O the
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: last month, but it does follow a five billion in
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: net purchases during May, so people are kind of trading
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: in and out. Again. This is money and M two
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: supply that we're starting to see very active overall. If
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: you look at the USM too supply right there hitting
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: an all time high. This is a big one because
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: this starts to move things off the sidelines because people
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: are going to want higher yields rather than setting these
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: money market supplies. And I think that's a factor that
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: we'll play into. Does the market continue its upcycle going forward,
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: and that will include both risk assets things like gold
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: as well. Stocks have also entered the best two week
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: period of the year, with an average of two point
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: four to three percent going back to nineteen twenty eight.
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: This is insane. Guys, Are we in a supercycle? That's
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: the real question. Let me know in the comments down
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: below if you guys think this this is an up
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: only market from here or will we see a major
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: pullback there or many analysts still kind of pointing in
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: that direction. Kobe Esi comes in and says, this has
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: been one of the worst years in the history for
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: the US dollar. Again, this is beneficial to risk assets,
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: but the dollar fell almost ten percent negative in the
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: first half of twenty twenty five, worst first half performance
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: since the end of the goal backed breton Wood system
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: in nineteen seventy three. So are we in that scenario?
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: Remember the big goal. I think when you look at
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: how tariffs play into this, the tax bill coming into this,
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: the current regulation around bitcoin as well as all these
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: or stable coins, as well as the market structure, this
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: starts to get into a very interesting cycle for investing.
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: Maybe Trump is right, is that this could be the
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: golden age for the United States coming up? All right,
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: So just taking a quick look at Mike Johnson, he
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: is really pitching hard to close this out. Whether you
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: like the bill, you don't like the bill, there are
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: a lot of things in it that I think I
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: think are very questionable. One thing is for sure is,
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: as Lynn Alden always says, we have her on the
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: show occasionally, you can't stop this train. Nothing stops this train.
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: We're in a position right now where if this goes through,
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: markets are going to respond favorably. Now globally, this is
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: the bigger picture because now we're talking about how do
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: we deal with tariffs? And are we going to deal
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: with tariffs? There are so many things still at play
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: right now that we need to watch out for through
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: the end of this year. The next big one, of course,
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: is going to be fed rate cut. So stay tuned
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: right here. If you're not in the Diamond circle, get
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: in on that. It's a great place to get additional
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: content from us. We always leave a link down below,
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: and of course you can join me over on Telegram.
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: We leave a link for that, and I talk to
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: you guys all the time, but you can catch me there.
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: Make sure and catch me out there on Twitter at
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: Paul Baron. We'll catch you next time right here on
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: The Paul Baron Show.