Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Jerome Powell Rate Cuts vs Uncertainty📈

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Jerome Powell Rate Cuts vs Uncertainty📈 · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:02
  Speaker 1: All right, so welcome into the live stream today. We're
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: going to be jumping into the FED meeting. This is
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: the FOMC, and we'll also learn a little bit more
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: about what chair Pal is doing at the top. I
• 0:12
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• 0:42
  Speaker 1: Let's go over to a couple of points here. I
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: see a lot of stuff coming in on the side chat,
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: so we'll try to get to a handful of questions
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: as we can. I want to lead off. Of course,
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: the Federal Reserve leaves interest rates unchanged. So this is
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: a pause, which is what has been anticipated for pretty
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: much ever. I mean We've been talking about this for
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: a long time and we don't see Chair Pal changing anything.
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: You guys were probably having some fun with the thumb today.
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: So I want to lead off though, because this is
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: why that thumb exists. I want to go to this
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: first clip. This, of course, is Janine Piro going at Powell.
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: Take a look.
• 1:20
  Speaker 2: Jerome Powell today is now bathed in immunity. It doesn't
• 1:25
  Speaker 2: matter where a case comes from. Requiring the government to
• 1:30
  Speaker 2: show something akin to probable cause and those are his words.
• 1:34
  Speaker 2: He is wrong. That's why we're not only appealing, we're
• 1:37
  Speaker 2: making a motion to reconsider.
• 1:39
  Speaker 3: Next question. This has ended it. Are you willing to conceive?
• 1:42
  Speaker 2: Did you hear what I just said?
• 1:45
  Speaker 4: Oh?
• 1:45
  Speaker 5: Cut it out?
• 1:46
  Speaker 2: Do you know how many convictions we've got cut it
• 1:48
  Speaker 2: out yet? Historic? Really, I'll deal with the devil if
• 1:53
  Speaker 2: you can give me information that will lead me to
• 1:57
  Speaker 2: possibly find a crime.
• 2:00
  Speaker 3: Thank you.
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: Wow. Well, that is the US Attorney, and of course
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: Chair Palell came on with that historic late Sunday night
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: response to what the US Attorney was trying to do.
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: Of course they got it handed to them. Let's go
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: into inflation, because this is really what is pausing the
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: FED right now, you have Mohammed la Rain talking about
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: this more evidence of hotter than expected US inflation ahead
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: of the Middle East conflict. That's primarily what we're anticipating,
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: and you can kind of see it. PPI final PPI
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: excluding food and energy. This is a big one still
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: plus five. The estimate was plus three, so we're starting
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: to see the data that is escalating. This could get
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: out of hand, guys. I mean you're looking at PPI
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: excluding food and energy at plus three nine, that's two
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: tenths over. That's a big deal when you have the
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: estimate versus actual, So you pay that and of course
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: no reason that we shouldn't see a FED pause. Some
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: people probably thought that there might even be a rate
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: hike under these terms. I don't think that's what Palell
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: is trying to do. Of course, he came in with
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: the no change and that's where we are today. Now
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: the real question is what will be his guidance forward.
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: Now that's what we're going to air this afternoon. Usually
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: he goes on around two thirty. We'll show you, guys
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: how that works. This is your first live stream to
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: understand what a FOMC meeting, What we're listening for is
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: Pale to give us some indicator on how to go forward.
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: If there's some guidance here that he feels that inflation
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: might be in a position that it's a temporary thing,
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: then he'll talk about that. If he says, hey, this
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: is going to continue on, we think this is going
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: to be a problem that could be an issue, especially
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: in the market. So because they are definitely leading in
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: another the Fed, even though we have clarity and all
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: that happening right now, literally this week, it is a
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: big deal here. Of course, Cornbireau was hitting on this.
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: America was supposed to be winning. Here's what winning looks.
• 3:58
  Speaker 3: Like right there.
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: Top growth has collapsed significantly. I mean, this is a
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: huge hit off of Q three. Also the full year
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: of two point one. This is the weakest we've had
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: since twenty twenty. You all know what happened then. So
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: inflation is now stuck and we're talking about one hundred
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: and twenty dollars barrel. These are not good things, guys
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: for the economy. Trump's economy is falling apart right now,
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: and this is an issue if it continues, and of
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: course we all know what that means. It really means
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: to the conflict in the Middle East. How quickly can
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: we get away from that. The other thing it means
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: is we got to figure out some way to start
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: slowing this debt down. This is where we right now,
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: We are edging in on forty trillion. This is a
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: hell of a day. I'm telling you guys, crazy times
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: right now. So many good things happening for crypto in
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: the markets, with clarity, the SEC and the CFTC coming together,
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: the new commodity approval lists, I mean, so many good things.
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: And then we have the economy falling apart, which is
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: the last thing I thought we would have in a
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: Trump presidency, but unfortunately, that's what we're seeing. Peter Schiff says, Hey,
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: national debt just to past thirty nine two point eight
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: since Trump took office fourteen. This is typical that we
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: continue to see upper trends. But as war costs now
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: start to go, we're going to talk about a national
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: debt that could hit fifty trillion before Trump leaves office.
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: That would be a absolute failure by this administration, if
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: that is in fact the case. The other thing that's
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: a failure is what we're seeing in Iran right now
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: we're at twenty three bail right there and continuing to
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: lose Americans. This is the thing that pretty much draws
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: the line in the sand for me. No American lives period.
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: That's it. It's full stop. I'm just not in on
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: anything that risks people for something unless we are being threatened.
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: So these are the problems that we're facing here in
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: the United States, and it's starting to show up in
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: the markets. Recession probability is high. I want to go
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: to a clip though, this will get into a little
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: bit of an explanation of why this might be working.
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: This is Andre Jique talking about oil that marks a recession.
• 6:11
  Speaker 3: Take a look.
• 6:13
  Speaker 6: The green line tracks the price of oil, which shows
• 6:16
  Speaker 6: up anytime the price goes up above the long term
• 6:19
  Speaker 6: trend line, it then has preceded aka happened to before
• 6:23
  Speaker 6: a recession, which are all the gray vertical bars. Now,
• 6:26
  Speaker 6: this chart shows one hundred and four dollars, but today
• 6:30
  Speaker 6: that threshold is probably closer to maybe seventy to seventy
• 6:34
  Speaker 6: five dollars. Certainly above one hundred dollars, it gets worse
• 6:37
  Speaker 6: and worse. Right, that's the sweet spot for the US
• 6:40
  Speaker 6: is between seventy to seventy five dollars. If it goes
• 6:43
  Speaker 6: above that really quickly, then that's bad news. So for example,
• 6:48
  Speaker 6: nineteen seventy three oil embargo prices quadrupled recession, followed, nineteen
• 6:54
  Speaker 6: seventy nine Iranian Revolution. Oil prices doubled, recession followed, nineteen
• 6:59
  Speaker 6: ninety goal four oil spiked recession, followed two thousand. Oil
• 7:04
  Speaker 6: doubled recession. Followed two thousand and seven. Oil went from
• 7:08
  Speaker 6: sixty to one hundred and forty seven dollars a barrel,
• 7:10
  Speaker 6: the worst recession since the Great Depression. Followed every single time,
• 7:14
  Speaker 6: and right now, thanks to the Warner Ran and the
• 7:16
  Speaker 6: closure of the Strait of Hormuz through which twenty percent
• 7:19
  Speaker 6: of the world's oil goes through, oil prices are going
• 7:23
  Speaker 6: up again.
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: There is no way out of this. It is now
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: a preordained destiny if we do not get out of
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: this war, and the off ramp is getting further and
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: further away, that's the problem. Now. Really the question is
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: is how does a FED even respond to this? Andre
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: went further into that, take a look.
• 7:42
  Speaker 6: But what makes this time particularly dangerous compared to every
• 7:46
  Speaker 6: other time is this chart. It shows that when oil
• 7:50
  Speaker 6: went up and there was a recession, the Federal Reserve
• 7:53
  Speaker 6: had room to fight back. But right now the FED
• 7:57
  Speaker 6: is kind of trapped. What does that mean? So the
• 8:01
  Speaker 6: blue line is the Fed's balance sheet. Every time it
• 8:04
  Speaker 6: goes up, that's the FED printing money doing QE. Now
• 8:09
  Speaker 6: look at the red line, that's oil prices. Notice how
• 8:13
  Speaker 6: every single time the FED fired up the money printer
• 8:18
  Speaker 6: oil was cheap or falling. Oil collapsing gave the FED
• 8:22
  Speaker 6: room they could print without triggering inflation because energy costs
• 8:27
  Speaker 6: were low. Right now though oil is going up. It's
• 8:30
  Speaker 6: extremely volatile, which means the FED has less cover to
• 8:33
  Speaker 6: do that if they print money now, oil makes inflation worse.
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: All right, So there you see it, guys, we know
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: what is on the horizon. I think everybody understands what
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: has to be done, and I think now is the
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: time we got to start talking and start really shouting
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: out to our lawmakers to get us out of this,
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: because it really isn't a position. I think now economically
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: it starts to put pressure on We're going to be
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: joining Powell here in just a minute. I see a
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: lot of you guys coming in with questions. I'm going
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: to try to get to as many as we can.
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: If we can do questions at the end, I'll view
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: the cute Let me see what you guys have queued
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: up here. If we can, I'll get to some of those.
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: The other thing, make sure, guys, if you have not
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: subscribed to the channel right now, the one thing you
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: have to do when you catch these live streams is
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: you have to hit that little bell. It's going to
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: give you a notification and it's going to let you
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: know when we're doing these kind of live streams. The
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: big one that I think will be the most important
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: to watch is the next one, which could be Kevin Walsh.
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: But here's chair pout. Let's join in.
• 9:39
  Speaker 7: Good afternoon, My colleagues and I remain squarely focused on
• 9:44
  Speaker 7: achieving our dual mandate goals of maximum employment and stable
• 9:48
  Speaker 7: prices for the benefit of the American people. The US
• 9:52
  Speaker 7: economy has been expanding at a solid pace well. Job
• 9:56
  Speaker 7: gains have remained low, the unemployment rate has been a
• 9:58
  Speaker 7: little changed in recent months, and inflation remains somewhat elevated. Today,
• 10:04
  Speaker 7: the FMC decided to leave our policy rate unchanged. We
• 10:09
  Speaker 7: see the current stance of monetary policy as appropriate to
• 10:12
  Speaker 7: promote progress toward our maximum employment and two percent inflation goals.
• 10:18
  Speaker 7: The implications of developments in the Middle East for the
• 10:21
  Speaker 7: US economy are uncertain. We will remain attentive to risks
• 10:26
  Speaker 7: to both sides of our dual mandate, and I'll have
• 10:29
  Speaker 7: more to say about monetary policy. After briefly reviewing economic developments,
• 10:35
  Speaker 7: available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at
• 10:39
  Speaker 7: a solid pace. Consumer spending has been resilient, and business
• 10:43
  Speaker 7: fixed investment has continued to expand. In contrast, activity in
• 10:48
  Speaker 7: the housing sector has remained weak. In our summary of
• 10:52
  Speaker 7: economic projections, the median participant projects that real GDP will
• 10:56
  Speaker 7: rise two point four percent this year and two point
• 10:59
  Speaker 7: three percent next year, somewhat stronger than projected in December.
• 11:04
  Speaker 7: In the labor market, the unemployment rate was four point
• 11:07
  Speaker 7: four percent in February and has changed little since late
• 11:11
  Speaker 7: last summer.
• 11:13
  Speaker 3: Job gains have remained low.
• 11:16
  Speaker 7: A good part of the slowing in the pace of
• 11:17
  Speaker 7: job growth over the past year reflects a decline in
• 11:21
  Speaker 7: the growth of the labor force due to lower immigration
• 11:24
  Speaker 7: and labor force participation, though labor demand has clearly softened
• 11:28
  Speaker 7: as well. Other indicators, including job openings, layoffs, hiring and
• 11:35
  Speaker 7: nominal wage growth generally show little.
• 11:37
  Speaker 3: Change in recent months.
• 11:40
  Speaker 7: In our SEP, the median projection of the unemployment rate
• 11:43
  Speaker 7: is four point four percent at the end of this
• 11:45
  Speaker 7: year and edges down thereafter. Inflation dis eased significantly from
• 11:51
  Speaker 7: its highs in mid twenty twenty two, but remains somewhat
• 11:55
  Speaker 7: elevated relative to our two percent longer run goal. Estimates
• 11:59
  Speaker 7: base on the Consumer Price Index and other data, indicate
• 12:02
  Speaker 7: that total PCE prices rose two point eight percent over
• 12:06
  Speaker 7: the twelve months ending in February, and that excluding the
• 12:09
  Speaker 7: volatile food and energy categories, core.
• 12:12
  Speaker 3: PCE prices rose three point zero percent.
• 12:16
  Speaker 7: These elevated readings largely reflect inflation in the goods sector,
• 12:20
  Speaker 7: which has been boosted by the effects of tariffs. Near
• 12:25
  Speaker 7: term measures of inflation expectations have risen in recent weeks,
• 12:28
  Speaker 7: likely reflecting the substantial rise in oil prices caused by
• 12:31
  Speaker 7: the supply disruptions in the Middle East. Most measures of
• 12:36
  Speaker 7: longer term expectations remain consistent with our two percent inflation goal.
• 12:42
  Speaker 7: The median projection in the SEP for total PCEE inflation
• 12:45
  Speaker 7: this year is two point seven percent and two point
• 12:48
  Speaker 7: two percent next year. A bit higher than projected in December.
• 12:54
  Speaker 7: Our monetary policy actions are guided by our dual mandate
• 12:57
  Speaker 7: to promote maximum employment and stables for the American people.
• 13:02
  Speaker 7: At today's meeting, the Committee decided to maintain the target
• 13:05
  Speaker 7: range for the federal funds rate at three and a
• 13:07
  Speaker 7: half to three and three quarters percent. From last September
• 13:10
  Speaker 7: through December, we lowered our policy rate three quarters of
• 13:14
  Speaker 7: a percentage point, bringing it within a range of plausible
• 13:17
  Speaker 7: estimates of neutral. This normalization of our policy stance should
• 13:22
  Speaker 7: continue to help stabilize the labor market while allowing inflation
• 13:25
  Speaker 7: to resume its downward trend toward two percent, But the
• 13:30
  Speaker 7: implications of events in the Middle East for the US
• 13:32
  Speaker 7: economy are uncertain. In the near term, higher energy prices
• 13:36
  Speaker 7: will push up overall inflation, but it is too soon
• 13:39
  Speaker 7: to know the scope and duration of the potential effects
• 13:42
  Speaker 7: on the economy. We will continue to monitor the risks
• 13:46
  Speaker 7: to both sides of our mandate. We are well positioned
• 13:49
  Speaker 7: to determine the extent and timing of additional adjustments to
• 13:52
  Speaker 7: our policy rate based on the incoming data, the evolving outlook,
• 13:56
  Speaker 7: and the balance of risks in our sep FMC participants
• 14:02
  Speaker 7: wrote down their individual assessments of an appropriate path of
• 14:05
  Speaker 7: the federal funds rate under what each participant judges to
• 14:08
  Speaker 7: be the most likely scenario for the economy. The median
• 14:13
  Speaker 7: participant projects that the appropriate level of the federal funds
• 14:16
  Speaker 7: rate will be three point four percent at the end
• 14:18
  Speaker 7: of this year and three point one percent at the
• 14:21
  Speaker 7: end of next year, unchanged from December. As is always
• 14:25
  Speaker 7: the case, these individual forecasts are subject to uncertainty and
• 14:28
  Speaker 7: they are not a committee plan or decision. Monetary policy
• 14:33
  Speaker 7: is not on a preset course and will make our
• 14:35
  Speaker 7: decisions on a meeting by meeting basis. To conclude, the
• 14:40
  Speaker 7: FED has been assigned two goals for monetary policy, maximum
• 14:44
  Speaker 7: employment and stable prices. We remain committed to supporting maximum employment,
• 14:49
  Speaker 7: bringing inflation sustainably to our two percent goal, and keeping
• 14:53
  Speaker 7: longer term inflation expectations well anchored. Our success in delivering
• 14:58
  Speaker 7: on these goals matters to all Americans. We have the
• 15:01
  Speaker 7: FED will continue to do our jobs with objectivity, integrity,
• 15:06
  Speaker 7: and a deep commitment to serve the American people.
• 15:09
  Speaker 3: Thank you, and I look forward to your questions.
• 15:15
  Speaker 6: Thank you.
• 15:16
  Speaker 5: Colby Smith of The New York Times, there's been some
• 15:18
  Speaker 5: debate about whether the FED should look through the inflation
• 15:21
  Speaker 5: that will come from higher oil prices setting from the
• 15:24
  Speaker 5: Middle East conflict. Is that the right approach at this juncture,
• 15:27
  Speaker 5: and to what extent does the fact that inflation has
• 15:30
  Speaker 5: been above target for roughly five years now influenced the
• 15:33
  Speaker 5: committee thinking around this.
• 15:36
  Speaker 7: So first, let me say we're well aware of the
• 15:42
  Speaker 7: performance of inflation over the last few years and how
• 15:45
  Speaker 7: a series of shocks have interrupted progress that we've made
• 15:48
  Speaker 7: over time, and that happened most recently with tariffs, and
• 15:52
  Speaker 7: now there will be some effects on inflation coming forward.
• 15:58
  Speaker 7: The thing that's really important that we see this year
• 16:01
  Speaker 7: is progress on inflation through a reduction in goods inflation
• 16:07
  Speaker 7: as the one time effects on prices of tariffs go
• 16:11
  Speaker 7: through the system go through the economy. That's the main
• 16:13
  Speaker 7: thing we're looking for going into this exercise, and we
• 16:17
  Speaker 7: need to be seeing that, you know, to sort of
• 16:21
  Speaker 7: understand that we actually are making progress, because on net
• 16:24
  Speaker 7: we didn't make progress. And if you look at total inflation,
• 16:27
  Speaker 7: sort total core inflation, it's about three percent and some
• 16:31
  Speaker 7: big chunk of that between a half and three quarters
• 16:33
  Speaker 7: is actually tariffs.
• 16:34
  Speaker 3: So we're looking for progress on that.
• 16:36
  Speaker 7: The question of whether we look through the energy inflation
• 16:40
  Speaker 7: doesn't really arise until we have kind of checked that box.
• 16:44
  Speaker 7: It of course is kind of standard learning that you
• 16:46
  Speaker 7: look through energy shocks, but that's always been dependent on
• 16:51
  Speaker 7: inflation expectations remaining well anchored, and I think now it's
• 16:54
  Speaker 7: also dependent on what you mentioned, which is that broader
• 16:57
  Speaker 7: context of five years now above target. We have to
• 17:01
  Speaker 7: keep all of those things in mind, and the question
• 17:04
  Speaker 7: of looking through when it does arise, will be one
• 17:06
  Speaker 7: to approach not lightly, but you know, in the context
• 17:10
  Speaker 7: that you mentioned.
• 17:11
  Speaker 5: And just on the SVP, can you help us make
• 17:14
  Speaker 5: sense of why there is still a bias to cut
• 17:16
  Speaker 5: from most officials this year, despite the upward revision to
• 17:19
  Speaker 5: headline and core inflation and the essentially unchanged forecast for
• 17:23
  Speaker 5: growth and unemployment. Just curious kind of what's the genesis
• 17:27
  Speaker 5: behind the need?
• 17:28
  Speaker 3: What's the need for the cut?
• 17:30
  Speaker 7: Yeah, so you know, they're nineteen people and so nineteen reasons,
• 17:33
  Speaker 7: nineteen individual submissions, you know, But and if you notice,
• 17:38
  Speaker 7: the median didn't change, but there was actually some movement
• 17:41
  Speaker 7: toward a meaningful amount of movement toward toward fewer cuts
• 17:45
  Speaker 7: by by people so four or five people went from
• 17:48
  Speaker 7: two to one, let's say, two cuts to one cut,
• 17:53
  Speaker 7: and each person as individual, you know, stories buying what
• 17:59
  Speaker 7: they want to do. Essentially, it is that, you know,
• 18:01
  Speaker 7: the the forecast is that we will be making progress
• 18:05
  Speaker 7: on inflation, not as much as we had hoped, but
• 18:06
  Speaker 7: some progress on inflation. It should come as we start
• 18:10
  Speaker 7: to see in the middle of the year progress on tariffs,
• 18:13
  Speaker 7: you know, going through once and then tariff inflation coming down.
• 18:16
  Speaker 3: That's we should be seeing that.
• 18:18
  Speaker 7: And you know, the rate forecast is conditional on the
• 18:21
  Speaker 7: performance of the economy, so if we don't see that progress,
• 18:25
  Speaker 7: then you won't see the rate cut.
• 18:30
  Speaker 8: Howard, thank you, Howard sty With the Rudders, it's just
• 18:37
  Speaker 8: a follow up a little bit. And to be clear,
• 18:39
  Speaker 8: is the higher inflation penciled in here for twenty twenty
• 18:43
  Speaker 8: six solely the result of the oil shock or something else.
• 18:50
  Speaker 7: So that's going to be part of it, But you
• 18:52
  Speaker 7: know that wouldn't be most of core, right, So the.
• 18:54
  Speaker 3: Oil shot for sure shows up here.
• 18:56
  Speaker 7: Some of that will be in core as well, but yes,
• 18:58
  Speaker 7: but no, there's also just just the feeling that we
• 19:02
  Speaker 7: haven't seen, you know, the progress that we had hoped
• 19:04
  Speaker 7: for on core goods and on on tariffs and on
• 19:08
  Speaker 7: the rest of it. You know, we've we've so for
• 19:11
  Speaker 7: whatever reason, people did write up their inflation forecast that
• 19:15
  Speaker 7: will certainly be tied to events in the Middle East and.
• 19:18
  Speaker 3: The price of oil.
• 19:19
  Speaker 7: But it's also I think a reflection of the slow
• 19:22
  Speaker 7: progress we've seen on tariffs, which we believe we will see.
• 19:26
  Speaker 7: It's just a question of how long it takes for
• 19:28
  Speaker 7: them to get all the way through the economy, and
• 19:30
  Speaker 7: it takes it just takes some time.
• 19:32
  Speaker 8: And is the lack of change in the steps again,
• 19:35
  Speaker 8: just to explicate this a little bit more, due to
• 19:39
  Speaker 8: the expectation that the oil portion of this will pass
• 19:42
  Speaker 8: through for more out of concern that there is a
• 19:46
  Speaker 8: potential blow to consumption and growth coming in the form
• 19:50
  Speaker 8: of wealth effects with the stock market down, in the
• 19:52
  Speaker 8: form of gas prices, you know, diverting spending from other
• 19:57
  Speaker 8: parts of the economy. I didn't get the second part well,
• 20:02
  Speaker 8: that the consumer is going to be potentially diverting money
• 20:05
  Speaker 8: to gasoline from other parts of the economy. There could
• 20:08
  Speaker 8: be a growth shock or a redistribution of spending there.
• 20:11
  Speaker 8: They can make consumption wealth effects as well. I guess
• 20:14
  Speaker 8: I'm wondering, are not is the rate forecast not changing
• 20:17
  Speaker 8: because you think the oil shock is going to be temporary,
• 20:20
  Speaker 8: or because you want to be sure your position in
• 20:22
  Speaker 8: case growth starts to slow.
• 20:23
  Speaker 7: So the thing I really want to emphasize is that
• 20:25
  Speaker 7: nobody knows. You know, the economics effect could be bigger,
• 20:28
  Speaker 7: they could be smaller, They could be much smaller or
• 20:30
  Speaker 7: much bigger.
• 20:31
  Speaker 3: We just don't know.
• 20:32
  Speaker 7: So people are writing down something that seems to make
• 20:35
  Speaker 7: sense of them, but have no conviction that to your point,
• 20:38
  Speaker 7: if we have high you know, if we have a
• 20:41
  Speaker 7: long period of much higher gas prices, that's going to
• 20:44
  Speaker 7: weigh on consumption, not a way on disposable personal income,
• 20:48
  Speaker 7: and it a weigh on consumption, But we don't know
• 20:50
  Speaker 7: if that's going to happen. Something quite different than that,
• 20:52
  Speaker 7: we might have much lower than expected passed through. So
• 20:56
  Speaker 7: people write down, you know, this is one of those
• 20:58
  Speaker 7: SEPs where a number of people mentioned if we were
• 21:01
  Speaker 7: ever going to skip an SEP, this would be a
• 21:03
  Speaker 7: good one because we just don't know. So I wouldn't
• 21:06
  Speaker 7: say there's a conviction that this is going to go
• 21:10
  Speaker 7: through quickly or not quickly. It's just you got to
• 21:12
  Speaker 7: write something down, and this is something that is that
• 21:16
  Speaker 7: people wrote down and so and.
• 21:19
  Speaker 3: You know, we don't debate how long how do you
• 21:22
  Speaker 3: do that.
• 21:22
  Speaker 7: We wouldn't be able to debate what the length or
• 21:25
  Speaker 7: size of these effects would be.
• 21:26
  Speaker 3: We just have to kind of make an individual statement.
• 21:29
  Speaker 7: And also, you know what you've written down before will
• 21:31
  Speaker 7: be You'll be reluctant to move too far away from that,
• 21:35
  Speaker 7: just because you don't know it's so unclear what the
• 21:38
  Speaker 7: direction from this particular end will be. Meanwhile, the economy
• 21:41
  Speaker 7: has the growth has been solid and inflation that the
• 21:45
  Speaker 7: overshoot is mainly from the goods and tariffs, and you know,
• 21:50
  Speaker 7: the labor market is the unemployment rate, of course, has
• 21:54
  Speaker 7: a little changed since September. You have a very very
• 21:58
  Speaker 7: low break even rate apparently for new jobs, with little
• 22:01
  Speaker 7: growth in either demand or supply. But the US economy
• 22:05
  Speaker 7: is doing, you know, pretty well. It's just we don't
• 22:08
  Speaker 7: know what the effects of this will be, and really
• 22:10
  Speaker 7: no one does.
• 22:15
  Speaker 3: Us sure.
• 22:16
  Speaker 9: In the past, the staff has suggested that higher oil
• 22:20
  Speaker 9: prices they have a hit to consumption, which how I
• 22:24
  Speaker 9: was talking about, but that's somewhat upset by increases to
• 22:27
  Speaker 9: domestic production. What if you could talk about that dynamic,
• 22:30
  Speaker 9: especially to the extent that how much US production is
• 22:33
  Speaker 9: happening right now.
• 22:36
  Speaker 7: So the first thing is there is you know, the
• 22:39
  Speaker 7: original thinking, the long standing think you put it that way,
• 22:44
  Speaker 7: is that you do look through energy shocks. But as
• 22:45
  Speaker 7: I mentioned, that's conditioned on inflation expectations and that kind
• 22:48
  Speaker 7: of thing.
• 22:49
  Speaker 3: So sorry, your question.
• 22:50
  Speaker 9: Was what the staff is saying about and has said
• 22:53
  Speaker 9: in the past. Yeah, so that being off sets. Yeah,
• 22:56
  Speaker 9: so that's that's true.
• 22:58
  Speaker 7: You know, we have we're an exporter of energy, right,
• 23:01
  Speaker 7: so any any effects on employment and economic activity and
• 23:04
  Speaker 7: spending would be offset to some extent by the fact
• 23:08
  Speaker 7: that our oil companies will be more profitable and they
• 23:10
  Speaker 7: may even do more drilling. If you ask oil companies
• 23:13
  Speaker 7: about doing more drilling, though, they're going to want to see,
• 23:16
  Speaker 7: you know, a consistent rise in oil prices from where they.
• 23:22
  Speaker 3: Were before the build up for the war.
• 23:26
  Speaker 7: And they're going to want to believe that that's going
• 23:28
  Speaker 7: to be persistent for a fairly long time. So they're
• 23:31
  Speaker 7: not sitting there waiting for oil to go over seventy
• 23:34
  Speaker 7: dollars you know a barrel, and then they're going to
• 23:36
  Speaker 7: start drilling whatever they're going to they're going to make
• 23:39
  Speaker 7: a reasoned, careful judgment that we're going to have higher
• 23:42
  Speaker 7: oil prices for an extended period, meaningfully higher. So you
• 23:45
  Speaker 7: don't I wouldn't say there's much of that happening, not
• 23:48
  Speaker 7: much of happening now, but some of that could happen
• 23:51
  Speaker 7: over time if you see that. But so you know,
• 23:54
  Speaker 7: the net of the net of it, with the net
• 23:56
  Speaker 7: of the oil shock, will still be some downward pressure
• 23:59
  Speaker 7: on ending and employment and upper pressure on inflation.
• 24:03
  Speaker 3: Of course.
• 24:03
  Speaker 9: And if I could just follow up on Colby's question,
• 24:06
  Speaker 9: how much do you worry that having looked through tariff
• 24:08
  Speaker 9: inflation and inflation running above target and looking through the
• 24:12
  Speaker 9: oil price shock would undermine the credibility of your commitment
• 24:16
  Speaker 9: to the two percent target.
• 24:17
  Speaker 7: You know, we have to do our analysis and you know,
• 24:21
  Speaker 7: think these things through carefully. But of course that's on
• 24:23
  Speaker 7: everyone's mind. You know, we're well aware of the history,
• 24:27
  Speaker 7: and but you don't want to overreact to that. You know,
• 24:30
  Speaker 7: you want to make the best judgment you can based
• 24:32
  Speaker 7: on the facts. We're not I don't think we're going
• 24:34
  Speaker 7: to let it color our decision making more than as
• 24:37
  Speaker 7: appropriate it's it's more of the thought that it's been
• 24:39
  Speaker 7: five years and we've actually had you know, we had
• 24:41
  Speaker 7: the tariff shock, we had the pandemic uh and and
• 24:45
  Speaker 7: now we have an energy shock of some size and duration.
• 24:48
  Speaker 7: We don't know what that's going to be actually, and
• 24:50
  Speaker 7: you know, it's one of those things where it's it's
• 24:52
  Speaker 7: it's a repeated set of things, and you worry that
• 24:55
  Speaker 7: that's the kind of thing that can you know, can
• 24:59
  Speaker 7: cost trouble for inflation expectations, and so we worry a
• 25:03
  Speaker 7: lot about that, and we're you know, we are very
• 25:05
  Speaker 7: strongly committed to doing what it takes to keep inflation
• 25:10
  Speaker 7: expectations anchored at two percent, and you know, I think
• 25:13
  Speaker 7: it's important that we that we do that, very important.
• 25:18
  Speaker 4: Nay, Nick timros Wall Street Journal Chapel. You've described monetary
• 25:26
  Speaker 4: policy as modestly restrictive if the unemployment rate is roughly stable,
• 25:31
  Speaker 4: inflation moving sideways in the high twos, with an ongoing
• 25:35
  Speaker 4: overshooting services and non housing services not just goods, and
• 25:39
  Speaker 4: the economy doing fairly well as as you just outlined,
• 25:43
  Speaker 4: what gives you confidence that inflation returns to target over
• 25:46
  Speaker 4: the next couple of years.
• 25:48
  Speaker 3: Okay, so I.
• 25:49
  Speaker 7: Would say the rate is you can characterize it as
• 25:52
  Speaker 7: in the high end of neutral, or you can carry
• 25:54
  Speaker 7: it to characterize it as perhaps mildly restrictive, even modestly restrictive.
• 25:58
  Speaker 7: No one knows for sure, but it's in that range
• 26:01
  Speaker 7: where it's somewhere around the borderline between restrictive and not.
• 26:05
  Speaker 7: Remember that a big part of the disinflation we're looking
• 26:09
  Speaker 7: for is just the runoff of when tariffs are put
• 26:13
  Speaker 7: into place. Of course, what they do is they raise
• 26:16
  Speaker 7: prices to some extent. To the extent those prices are,
• 26:19
  Speaker 7: the tariffs are paid by consumers on a one time basis,
• 26:24
  Speaker 7: and we're waiting for that process. It takes eight, nine,
• 26:28
  Speaker 7: ten eleven months a year to go through the system,
• 26:31
  Speaker 7: and we're waiting for the tariffs which were put in
• 26:34
  Speaker 7: place over the course of the middle part and later
• 26:37
  Speaker 7: later last year. We're waiting for that to go through
• 26:40
  Speaker 7: the system, so that goods inflation will return closer to
• 26:44
  Speaker 7: what it's always been.
• 26:45
  Speaker 3: I mean, it used to be.
• 26:46
  Speaker 7: For many many years it was negative and then you know,
• 26:49
  Speaker 7: the year before tariffs came in, it was zero and
• 26:52
  Speaker 7: it's running it like two percent now, so and so
• 26:55
  Speaker 7: that's kind of goods. Inflation is running at two percent,
• 26:58
  Speaker 7: so that's not coming from standard Phillips curve restrictive restrictive policy.
• 27:05
  Speaker 7: It's coming from the runoff of a one time thing.
• 27:10
  Speaker 7: We also think it's important, though, to keep policy either
• 27:12
  Speaker 7: mildly restrictive or close to that, but not too restrictive
• 27:16
  Speaker 7: because of the weakness in the downside risk in the
• 27:19
  Speaker 7: labor market. We are balancing these two goals in a
• 27:22
  Speaker 7: situation where the risks to the labor market are to
• 27:24
  Speaker 7: the downside, which would call for lower rates, and the
• 27:27
  Speaker 7: risks to inflation or to the upside, which would call
• 27:29
  Speaker 7: for higher.
• 27:30
  Speaker 3: Rates or not cutting anyway.
• 27:31
  Speaker 7: So we're in a difficult situation and we feel like
• 27:34
  Speaker 7: we're Our framework calls on us to balance the risks,
• 27:38
  Speaker 7: and we feel like where we are now is just
• 27:40
  Speaker 7: kind of on that border line, the higher border line
• 27:43
  Speaker 7: of restrictive versus not restrictive. We feel like that's the
• 27:48
  Speaker 7: right place to be.
• 27:49
  Speaker 4: Can I ask about corn on housing services though, because
• 27:52
  Speaker 4: there are some people who think that it hasn't come
• 27:54
  Speaker 4: down very much, if at all, over the past year,
• 27:57
  Speaker 4: if wage growth has come down, if the labor market
• 27:59
  Speaker 4: has loose, and why has non housing services inflation maybe
• 28:03
  Speaker 4: been slower to follow.
• 28:05
  Speaker 3: That's a good question.
• 28:07
  Speaker 7: It's you know, it's frustrating labor non housing services have
• 28:11
  Speaker 7: they basically moved sideways for a year. They're at the
• 28:13
  Speaker 7: same level, and we do expect that they will come down.
• 28:16
  Speaker 7: But you know, it's it's a bunch of idiosyncratic things.
• 28:18
  Speaker 7: But at the same time that that is one of
• 28:20
  Speaker 7: the things we should be seeing because to your point,
• 28:23
  Speaker 7: you know, the labor market is clearly not a source
• 28:26
  Speaker 7: of inflationary pressures and that should really matter for non
• 28:29
  Speaker 7: housing services.
• 28:30
  Speaker 3: But we're not seeing progress there, So we do.
• 28:33
  Speaker 7: You know, what we expect for next year is continued
• 28:36
  Speaker 7: What we want to see for this year rather is
• 28:38
  Speaker 7: continued progress on housing services, finally seeing that you know,
• 28:42
  Speaker 7: the goods inflation come back down because the want of
• 28:45
  Speaker 7: time effects of tarots are through, and then also get
• 28:48
  Speaker 7: some help from non housing services.
• 28:50
  Speaker 3: That's what we'd like to see. But it's you know,
• 28:52
  Speaker 3: it's a good question why we didn't see much of
• 28:54
  Speaker 3: that last year.
• 28:56
  Speaker 10: I worked thanks Edward Lawrence with Fox Business. So in
• 29:02
  Speaker 10: December we saw employment numbers revised down to negative seventeen thousand.
• 29:06
  Speaker 10: January revised down February posted a loss of ninety two thousand.
• 29:10
  Speaker 10: Is that is the employment side of far greater risk
• 29:13
  Speaker 10: than the inflation side, because we are seeing inflation CPI
• 29:16
  Speaker 10: is closed to two present PCE has ticked down overall.
• 29:20
  Speaker 7: You know, it's really I wouldn't say that, I wouldn't
• 29:22
  Speaker 7: say that that's clear at all, that one is more
• 29:25
  Speaker 7: at risk than the other. So you can point to
• 29:28
  Speaker 7: the unemployment rate being stable, and you know, in a
• 29:30
  Speaker 7: world where both supply and demand for workers have come
• 29:34
  Speaker 7: down very, very sharply over the course of the past
• 29:36
  Speaker 7: year due to immigration policy largely, you know, a ratio
• 29:41
  Speaker 7: is going to be a better thing to look at
• 29:42
  Speaker 7: than job creation.
• 29:43
  Speaker 3: For example.
• 29:44
  Speaker 7: So and the ratio is the unemployment rate, and it's
• 29:47
  Speaker 7: been stable since September, So that tells you that inflation,
• 29:51
  Speaker 7: you know, you can we're at three point zero percent
• 29:56
  Speaker 7: core inflation two point eight percent headline, so we've been
• 30:01
  Speaker 7: well above the two percent that amount whatever it is,
• 30:06
  Speaker 7: zero point seven point eight or a full percentage point
• 30:09
  Speaker 7: above two percent for some time, and that's a concern.
• 30:12
  Speaker 7: You know, we need to get back down to two percent,
• 30:14
  Speaker 7: and we need to keep focused on that, even though
• 30:16
  Speaker 7: we do now face some new inflation from energy, so
• 30:20
  Speaker 7: I'd be hard pressed to say that one of them
• 30:23
  Speaker 7: is obviously more at risk.
• 30:24
  Speaker 3: Than the other.
• 30:25
  Speaker 10: And if I may, what happens if there's no Federal
• 30:29
  Speaker 10: Reserve chairman confirmed on May fifteenth? Would you stay on?
• 30:32
  Speaker 7: So if my successor is not confirmed by the end
• 30:35
  Speaker 7: of my term as chair, I would serve as chair
• 30:38
  Speaker 7: pro tem until he is confirmed. That is what the
• 30:42
  Speaker 7: law calls for. That's what we've done on several occasions,
• 30:46
  Speaker 7: including involving me, and it's what we're going to do
• 30:48
  Speaker 7: in this situation. And while I'm at it, on the
• 30:53
  Speaker 7: question whether I will leave while the investigation is ongoing,
• 30:56
  Speaker 7: I have no intention of leaving the board until the
• 30:58
  Speaker 7: investigation is well and truly over, with transparency and finality.
• 31:03
  Speaker 7: And I would refer you to the statement that was
• 31:05
  Speaker 7: in the Fed's brief that you all have seen, and
• 31:07
  Speaker 7: I won't have anything more.
• 31:08
  Speaker 3: For you on that. On the question of whether I
• 31:11
  Speaker 3: will then.
• 31:11
  Speaker 7: Continue to serve as a governor after my term ends
• 31:14
  Speaker 7: and after the investigation is over, I have not made
• 31:17
  Speaker 7: that decision yet, and I will make that decision based
• 31:20
  Speaker 7: on what I think is best for the institution and
• 31:22
  Speaker 7: for the people we serve figuring you probably were going
• 31:25
  Speaker 7: to set the dominoes off there, and.
• 31:29
  Speaker 3: I'm not going to have any more to say on
• 31:31
  Speaker 3: those issues.
• 31:32
  Speaker 11: By the way, Thank you very much. Claire Jones from
• 31:37
  Speaker 11: the Financial Times. People have drawn quite a few historical
• 31:42
  Speaker 11: parallels with the current situation. We've seen oil price shocks
• 31:45
  Speaker 11: in the past. Some people have said the first Gulf
• 31:48
  Speaker 11: War and the Fed's response to that, where there was
• 31:50
  Speaker 11: a focus on the growth risks, is the right parallel.
• 31:55
  Speaker 11: To what extent would you agree with that, and to
• 31:58
  Speaker 11: what extent would you think We're in a different pace
• 32:00
  Speaker 11: place today? Thank you.
• 32:02
  Speaker 7: You know, it's really hard to say until we see
• 32:05
  Speaker 7: the situation, the actual situation.
• 32:08
  Speaker 3: In some circumstances, that might be the right case.
• 32:11
  Speaker 7: In fact, for example, if we do see the kinds
• 32:13
  Speaker 7: of disinflation or progress that we expect to see with
• 32:17
  Speaker 7: due to tear offfs that I mentioned, I think it's
• 32:20
  Speaker 7: hard to say, and it will depend to some extent
• 32:22
  Speaker 7: on the size and duration of the effects we're seeing
• 32:25
  Speaker 7: on prices, and it will depend a lot on what
• 32:29
  Speaker 7: we can see in inflation expectations.
• 32:32
  Speaker 11: And just want follow up if I'm mad, just on
• 32:34
  Speaker 11: the BLS report, that was mentioned briefly there. It doesn't
• 32:38
  Speaker 11: seem from the projections or from the comments you've made
• 32:40
  Speaker 11: today about the unemployment rate and focusing on that that
• 32:43
  Speaker 11: your view on the labor market story to a large
• 32:47
  Speaker 11: popy and a supply side story has changed despite the
• 32:50
  Speaker 11: quine negative number in February.
• 32:52
  Speaker 3: Would that be the right take?
• 32:54
  Speaker 11: And was there anyone else in the room who though
• 32:57
  Speaker 11: differently and that the February jobs report was calls for concern?
• 33:02
  Speaker 3: So I think you have to take take the two together.
• 33:04
  Speaker 3: You know, in a way, the.
• 33:07
  Speaker 7: January report was a positive surprise and the February report
• 33:12
  Speaker 7: was a negative surprise. If you put them together, you
• 33:16
  Speaker 7: get something in the middle. And I think you have
• 33:18
  Speaker 7: to really as you do. I'm sure realize there there
• 33:21
  Speaker 7: was a strike and there was weather, and that's about
• 33:23
  Speaker 7: eighty thousand of the negative effect total on the February report.
• 33:28
  Speaker 7: Notwithstanding that, so what do you what do you see
• 33:31
  Speaker 7: if you take a step back overall, there are number
• 33:32
  Speaker 7: of indicators that suggest a degree of stability. But the
• 33:36
  Speaker 7: thing that I think good number of people in the
• 33:39
  Speaker 7: committee are concerned about is just a very very low
• 33:42
  Speaker 7: level of job creation. If you if you adjust what
• 33:46
  Speaker 7: has been the trend job creation over the past let's
• 33:49
  Speaker 7: say six months. If you adjust that for what we
• 33:51
  Speaker 7: think our staff thinks is the overstatement due to overcounting, effectively,
• 33:57
  Speaker 7: there's zero net job creation in the private sector. But
• 34:00
  Speaker 7: actually that looks like that's about what the economy needs
• 34:04
  Speaker 7: in terms of dealing with very very low, non existent
• 34:08
  Speaker 7: really growth in the labor force, which of course we've
• 34:10
  Speaker 7: never had our in our history. So you've got a
• 34:13
  Speaker 7: sort of a zero employment growth equilibrium. Now that's that's balance, okay,
• 34:20
  Speaker 7: but you know, I would say it does have a
• 34:23
  Speaker 7: feel of downside risk and it's not kind of a
• 34:27
  Speaker 7: really comfortable balance.
• 34:28
  Speaker 3: So you know, we look at that, we see.
• 34:30
  Speaker 7: It, we get it, and I mean, everybody understands the arithmetic,
• 34:33
  Speaker 7: and that's you can say the break even is zero,
• 34:37
  Speaker 7: But nonetheless it's it's something that we're watching carefully and
• 34:41
  Speaker 7: so and you know, are concerned about.
• 34:42
  Speaker 3: But ultimately, though.
• 34:44
  Speaker 7: You can argue that it's the consequence of deliberate, deliberate policy,
• 34:48
  Speaker 7: which is really the changes to immigration that's the biggest
• 34:51
  Speaker 7: factor there, But nonetheless something we watch carefully.
• 34:56
  Speaker 3: Andrew, Thanks Chair Powell.
• 35:02
  Speaker 12: The economy has experienced a series of supply shocks in
• 35:04
  Speaker 12: the last few years, COVID tariffs, two oil price shocks.
• 35:08
  Speaker 12: Do you think that is bad luck or is something
• 35:10
  Speaker 12: changed in the world that makes supply shocks more common
• 35:13
  Speaker 12: and does es central banking to take start taking account
• 35:16
  Speaker 12: of the risk of supply shocks as more as a
• 35:18
  Speaker 12: more common problem.
• 35:21
  Speaker 7: You know, we did go through a long period where
• 35:23
  Speaker 7: where the shocks were all demand shocks, and you know,
• 35:27
  Speaker 7: so we've had a lot of practice thinking about a
• 35:28
  Speaker 7: lot of supply shocks in the last four or five years,
• 35:31
  Speaker 7: for sure, And it's just a very different thing and
• 35:33
  Speaker 7: a very much more difficult thing because it does immediately
• 35:36
  Speaker 7: raise the question of tension between the two parts of
• 35:39
  Speaker 7: our mandate. But you know it has the world changed,
• 35:43
  Speaker 7: I mean, COVID COVID is a one time thing, right,
• 35:48
  Speaker 7: This energy supply shock is a one time things.
• 35:51
  Speaker 3: It's not because of some broad tendency or anything. I
• 35:54
  Speaker 3: don't think. And you know that the.
• 35:56
  Speaker 7: Oil shock under with Ukraine was also a consequence of
• 36:00
  Speaker 7: of military actions.
• 36:01
  Speaker 3: So I don't know that.
• 36:03
  Speaker 7: I don't know that the uh the world has changed
• 36:06
  Speaker 7: in a way that they'll be more supply shocks. But
• 36:08
  Speaker 7: you know, there's people have written that, that paper and
• 36:11
  Speaker 7: that speech a number of times whenever people have tried
• 36:13
  Speaker 7: to make the case that that is the case. And
• 36:15
  Speaker 7: in fact, we have seen more supply shocks in the
• 36:18
  Speaker 7: last five years than we've seen in many years before
• 36:21
  Speaker 7: that it's a fact.
• 36:22
  Speaker 12: Okay, you said last year that the FED was reviewing
• 36:26
  Speaker 12: its communications strategies, including the SEP, as part of its
• 36:29
  Speaker 12: framework review. Whatever happened to that? And I have like
• 36:34
  Speaker 12: five follow ups to that? But I guess you know what,
• 36:38
  Speaker 12: what would you change about fake communications if you had
• 36:41
  Speaker 12: the time?
• 36:41
  Speaker 7: What happened about that was not much? And I'll tell
• 36:45
  Speaker 7: you why. So you know, we we we looked carefully
• 36:49
  Speaker 7: at many aspects of the SEP and of our communications,
• 36:52
  Speaker 7: and there just weren't. There weren't any ideas that had
• 36:56
  Speaker 7: very broad support on the committee. And you don't you
• 36:58
  Speaker 7: don't want to make a change your communications unless you have,
• 37:02
  Speaker 7: you know, the committee behind that. So we didn't really
• 37:05
  Speaker 7: make any changes on that. You know, I had hoped
• 37:07
  Speaker 7: that that some things that I wanted to do, but
• 37:09
  Speaker 7: they just they didn't attract broad support. And we'd already
• 37:12
  Speaker 7: made all the changes we made to the framework that
• 37:14
  Speaker 7: was that was a critical thing, so we didn't. You know,
• 37:18
  Speaker 7: I wish we had been able to do some things,
• 37:21
  Speaker 7: but you know, we didn't. So maybe the next chair,
• 37:24
  Speaker 7: well we'll take a look.
• 37:25
  Speaker 3: I'm sure he will.
• 37:32
  Speaker 13: Michael McGee from Bloemberg Television and Radio The Minute Show
• 37:35
  Speaker 13: in January, some members of the committee wanted to include
• 37:38
  Speaker 13: a two sided guidance on policy. Was that discussed today
• 37:42
  Speaker 13: and given the rise in the inflation expectations? How much
• 37:47
  Speaker 13: support for a two sided policy warning would there be?
• 37:52
  Speaker 7: So it did come up today. The policy that are
• 37:54
  Speaker 7: the possibility rather that our next move might be an
• 37:57
  Speaker 7: increase did come up at the meeting, as it did
• 37:58
  Speaker 7: at the last meeting. The vast majority of participants don't
• 38:02
  Speaker 7: see that as their base case, and of course we.
• 38:05
  Speaker 3: Don't take things off the table.
• 38:07
  Speaker 7: But you correctly characterized, you know, what was in the
• 38:10
  Speaker 7: minutes that that several participants indicated in something very much
• 38:13
  Speaker 7: like that conversation did happen?
• 38:15
  Speaker 3: What was your second question though.
• 38:17
  Speaker 13: It was just one question there, but follow up would
• 38:19
  Speaker 13: be there are a lot of goods besides oil that
• 38:23
  Speaker 13: are trapped in the strait right now and a lot
• 38:24
  Speaker 13: of supply chains getting snarled. How much concern do you
• 38:29
  Speaker 13: have about whether, if this becomes an inflation problem beyond
• 38:34
  Speaker 13: just oil, whether there's anything you can do about it
• 38:37
  Speaker 13: or would do about it. Given the efficacies of monetary policy.
• 38:43
  Speaker 3: You know, you can worry about other commodities. You can
• 38:47
  Speaker 3: worry about all.
• 38:48
  Speaker 7: Of the ways that oil commodities, oil related commodities go
• 38:52
  Speaker 7: into manufacturing that kind of thing. The truth is, it's
• 38:55
  Speaker 7: completely out of our hands, and we, just like everybody else,
• 38:58
  Speaker 7: we have to just wait and see what happens.
• 39:01
  Speaker 3: And it'll be to come down to how long.
• 39:05
  Speaker 7: You know, the current situation lasts, and then what are
• 39:09
  Speaker 7: the effects on prices, and then how the consumers reacting
• 39:14
  Speaker 7: that kind of thing. Really we I wouldn't speculate in
• 39:17
  Speaker 7: any way, and there's really not a lot we can
• 39:19
  Speaker 7: do other than kind of watching and see.
• 39:24
  Speaker 3: That.
• 39:27
  Speaker 14: Afternoon, Ter Powell, Maria Leisakapro with Bloomberg News, I wanted
• 39:31
  Speaker 14: to ask you. You said longer term versions of infliction
• 39:34
  Speaker 14: expectations reflect confidence that the fact will get back to
• 39:38
  Speaker 14: its two percent goal. But there are some colleagues of
• 39:40
  Speaker 14: yours who have pointed to hire this persion in household service,
• 39:44
  Speaker 14: in business.
• 39:44
  Speaker 3: Services as well. So and that they take.
• 39:47
  Speaker 14: As a signal that infliching expectations may be less sticky
• 39:51
  Speaker 14: than interpass I'm wondering.
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: All right, So a couple of things to hit on
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: that Powell has stated. One, of course, is he's pretty
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: much a secured no rate and he seems to be
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: somewhat positive about the economy. So I'm a little bit
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: perplexed on that he didn't want to answer any questions
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: about what's going on on his future. If if you
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: look at the calendar right now, that's what it looks like.
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: So we've got an April twenty eighth, ninth upcoming, he
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: could be there then by June it's like that, that's
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: when we would see Kevin Walsh at the Helm there
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: at the FED doing these meetings like this. Now we
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: are cutting from today's FED meeting because we have an
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: unbelievable breaking news video about Clarity that will be dropping
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: on the channel here in just a few minutes, so
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: make sure and of course subscribe to the show. If
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: you've not done that, watch that one because it's going
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: to be a banger. A lot of things happening right
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: now in DC that are very good for crypto, and
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: I think even though we're seeing economic challenges here, the
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: good news is that getting ready for a return to
• 40:59
  Speaker 1: a bull market, a lot of things have to be
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: done on the regulatory front, so that is where we're heading.
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna jump over to that video real quick.
• 41:06
  Speaker 3: Check it out.
• 41:07
  Speaker 1: You guys know what to do, and we'll catch you
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: very soon. Take care,