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Today’s Popcorn Moment: Is there going to be a midterm blue wave? · Tony Katz | Popcorn Moment

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  Speaker 2: It's a story you need to hear to believe, then
• 1:34
  Speaker 2: grab your popcorn.
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  Speaker 1: Because there is more. I had a host of things.
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  Speaker 1: A host of things today, but I will start with
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  Speaker 1: this right here. This is over there at CNN.
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  Speaker 2: A caution about the midterms and the idea of a
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  Speaker 2: blue wave.
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  Speaker 1: Jeff, you've been on the road. Is it actually a
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  Speaker 1: wave out there?
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  Speaker 3: I mean, we'll see if it's a wave, but a
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  Speaker 3: couple things about these polls.
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  Speaker 1: Are they accurate?
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  Speaker 3: I mean, polls, as we know, as Kristen knows better
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  Speaker 3: than anyone, they're a snapshot in time. They're not a
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  Speaker 3: predictive measure of what's going to happen. So I think
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  Speaker 3: that is something we should all keep in mind about
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  Speaker 3: the polling. We've been reminded of this lesson, like, repeatedly.
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  Speaker 2: Good.
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  Speaker 1: I think we can't do it enough.
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  Speaker 3: But I think the bottom line is when you look
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  Speaker 3: at sort of where this campaign, particularly the Senate, is
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  Speaker 3: playing out in the final few weeks, it's in Trump country.
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  Speaker 3: It's in red states. So I don't see any Democrats
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  Speaker 3: who are over 50 percent. I don't see, you know,
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  Speaker 3: a question is, are Trump voters that have been difficult
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  Speaker 3: to poll over the years, are they reflective in these?
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  Speaker 3: The Democrats I talk to at the state level races,
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  Speaker 3: state legislative races in these states are less confident of
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  Speaker 3: there being a wave than some national surveys. So I
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  Speaker 3: think we will see in the final weeks. I mean,
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  Speaker 3: I think the the money advantage is. that Republicans have
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  Speaker 3: and the president being out there is going to have
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  Speaker 3: some effect, perhaps on both sides, on the president's side.
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  Speaker 3: But the spending advantage is one thing that could really.
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  Speaker 1: Make a wave a bit smaller. Now, Republicans do have
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  Speaker 1: more money to spend.
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  Speaker 2: And there's a piece over at National Review by Jim
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  Speaker 2: Garrity that has half value and I think half misses
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  Speaker 2: the mark.
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  Speaker 1: And I think Jim's an unbelievably bright guy.
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  Speaker 2: And he's pointing out that If you follow the money,
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  Speaker 2: Republicans have given up in some places. North Carolina is
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  Speaker 2: one of those places. They know that Tom Tillis' seat
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  Speaker 2: is going to go to a Democrat.
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  Speaker 1: They know it. They see it.
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  Speaker 2: Michael Watley, not a great candidate and nothing worked out.
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  Speaker 2: And so the spending has dried up. There is still
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  Speaker 2: some money, but from some of the major concerns, it
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  Speaker 2: has dried up. You take a look at Collins, not
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  Speaker 2: Susan Collins in Maine, where she is leading in some
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  Speaker 2: polls to the extent that you believe that. And certainly
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  Speaker 2: there's a belief that Troy Jackson, who took over for
• 4:02
  Speaker 2: the Nazi Graham Plattner, is nothing that.
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  Speaker 1: People are actually... very interested in.
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  Speaker 2: Susan Collins can keep her seat there, just like they
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  Speaker 2: believe that John Ossoff will keep his seat against Mike Collins.
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  Speaker 2: They're the Democrat John Ossoff in Georgia. But just because
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  Speaker 2: you're pulling out of a race in North Carolina is
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  Speaker 2: not a signifier that you're giving up on control. There's
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  Speaker 2: also a conversation on governor's races. all across the country.
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  Speaker 2: Then there are specific places where you have, for example,
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  Speaker 2: in Alaska, Dan Sullivan, the Republican, going up against Mary Paltola,
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  Speaker 2: the congresswoman. Well, Paltola is now involved in a scandal
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  Speaker 2: of things she said about this group and that group
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  Speaker 2: in derogatory terms, and she's claiming, how dare you, and
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  Speaker 2: sending out cease and desist.
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  Speaker 1: The damage is already happening there.
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  Speaker 2: And these races are all within the margin of error
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  Speaker 2: to the extent we believe that any of.
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  Speaker 1: The polls at all.
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  Speaker 2: This takes us, of course, to Texas and what actually
• 5:08
  Speaker 2: happened with James Tallarico. His team claims he had the
• 5:12
  Speaker 2: flu and now he's back on the campaign trail. The
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  Speaker 2: rumor was full mental breakdown. And now people are starting
• 5:20
  Speaker 2: to come forth with receipts and confirmations that so-and-so was
• 5:27
  Speaker 2: discharged and If they lied about James Tallarico, it wasn't
• 5:35
  Speaker 2: the flu. He was actually in some facility. You can't
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  Speaker 2: vote for that. Now, it has to be, of course, proven.
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  Speaker 2: When this came out Friday as a rumor, I'm like,
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  Speaker 2: I'm not going to buy into this. You got to
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  Speaker 2: show me something. He's back on the trail and they
• 5:54
  Speaker 2: say it's the flu. I'll let those who investigate these
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  Speaker 2: things investigate. But the idea that there is some radical
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  Speaker 2: wave out there is simply not the case, which has
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  Speaker 2: been a huge part of my argument from the beginning,
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  Speaker 2: going back to our Trump event in February. The numbers
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  Speaker 2: don't show that Democrats are running away with this. They
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  Speaker 2: don't show it. Of course they can. Everything is on
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  Speaker 2: their side to do it. Everything is on their side
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  Speaker 2: to do it. The numbers don't show it. So why
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  Speaker 2: would I trust the numbers? I'd much rather trust people.
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  Speaker 2: And my argument is Americans think that Democrats are crazier
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  Speaker 2: than Republicans have screwed things up. And I think that
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  Speaker 2: still holds. I think it still holds in very, very,
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  Speaker 2: very large measure. Now, there is some data that shows
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  Speaker 2: that Republicans.
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  Speaker 1: are building it out.
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  Speaker 2: Republicans are leading it up in Kansas, in Nebraska, in Alaska,
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  Speaker 2: in Maine, in Ohio, and in Iowa. Don't get yourself
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  Speaker 2: too deep into that stuff either. If pollsters are wrong,
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  Speaker 2: pollsters are wrong. The problem is pollsters are usually wrong
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  Speaker 2: to the left because of who they poll and how
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  Speaker 2: they poll. So it's interesting, but I wouldn't I wouldn't
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  Speaker 2: start popping champagne yet. You might have to wait until
• 7:29
  Speaker 2: a good two, three weeks after the election, the way
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  Speaker 2: some of these states count.