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Why Kyiv is watching Lukashenko so closely · INSIGHT TODAY

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Now, Ukraine is stepping up its defenses along the border
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: with Belarus, while worn in President Alexander Lukashenko against joining
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: Russia's war. Belarus has reportedly responded to Ukrainian demands the
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: East tensions, but it remains a key source of fuel,
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: weapons and logistical support for Russia. So could it potentially
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: go further? Did abuse as Wow reports, will.
• 0:24
  Speaker 2: Russia's closest all I joined the war in Ukraine? This
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  Speaker 2: is what Belarus's president says.
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  Speaker 3: You're catching We don't want to fight.
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  Speaker 4: Belarus is very vulnerable from a military point of view
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  Speaker 4: if Ukraine starts attacking Belarus the way it attacks Russia.
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  Speaker 5: Russian.
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  Speaker 2: But Ukraine's president is not buying it. He says, Belarus
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  Speaker 2: is already clearly supporting Russia's war effort, including with equipment
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  Speaker 2: that helps sky Russian runes.
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  Speaker 4: Let you what's the point of saying he doesn't want war?
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  Speaker 4: Just take the equipment down, just shut it down. If
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  Speaker 4: he doesn't do it, we will.
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  Speaker 2: Belarus seems to have responded by quietly shutting down the
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  Speaker 2: relay stations in question, but it might not just be
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  Speaker 2: Ukraine's firepower that's making Lukashenka comply that's right.
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  Speaker 6: The fact is that Lukashenko has no military sovereignty. He
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  Speaker 6: is subordinate to Russia's interests. The fact that the signal repeaters,
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  Speaker 6: for example, were switched off, means that Russia has agreed
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  Speaker 6: to it because it does not have the capacity to
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  Speaker 6: withstand a possible response from Ukraine. We should not think
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  Speaker 6: that Lukashenko is acting against Russia. He would never do that.
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  Speaker 2: Even as an authoritarian leader. Lukashenka is also not immune
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  Speaker 2: to public opinion.
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  Speaker 5: Belarus genetically almost sort of hates any wars, both for
• 1:50
  Speaker 5: the Belarusian public and also form the Belarusian elites, I
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  Speaker 5: mean the army in particular.
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  Speaker 2: Analysts say joining the war trigger protests like those in
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: twenty twenty. They almost topple Lukashenka until he was rescued
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  Speaker 2: by Putin.
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  Speaker 5: Lukashenka up until twenty twenty he had far more space
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  Speaker 5: for maneuvering. He was legitimate president. He did not have
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  Speaker 5: to worry that he's not recognized internationally. He was able
• 2:19
  Speaker 5: to resist that. But after the twenty twenty election, this
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  Speaker 5: is when Russia really tried to claw him in and
• 2:28
  Speaker 5: to with more pressure.
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  Speaker 2: This has included joint military exercises and even Russia reportedly
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  Speaker 2: positioning nuclear capable weapons in Belarus, as well as fuel
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  Speaker 2: and weapons support. Despite repeatedly claiming he does not want war,
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  Speaker 2: Lukashenka won't distance himself from Putin.
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  Speaker 4: We are peace loving, but in any situation we will
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  Speaker 4: stand with Russia.
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  Speaker 2: But will standing with Russia mean going to war for it?
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  Speaker 2: Russia is under pressure, It's hurting from Ukraine's long range
• 2:56
  Speaker 2: attacks and failing to advance on the front line, and
• 2:59
  Speaker 2: this is so in Russians on the war. Some analysts
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  Speaker 2: say opening another front from Belarus could pressure Ukraine and
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  Speaker 2: distract from Russia still made on the ground, but Belarus
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  Speaker 2: may be more useful to put In as a silent
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  Speaker 2: partner for them.
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  Speaker 5: Belarus has become a very effective fortified rear where which
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  Speaker 5: supplies the logistics, which provides territory, which also can be
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  Speaker 5: used as strategic depths for nuclear and other signaling. So
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  Speaker 5: no one really, either Lukashanka or put it In wants
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  Speaker 5: Belarus to, I think, to become destabilized.
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  Speaker 2: Plot says Russian resources are already stretched in without having
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  Speaker 2: to lead a new northern front, but the psychological threat
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  Speaker 2: of an attack from Belarus is already keeping Ukrainian defenses busy.
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  Speaker 2: Even if Belarus is unlikely to join a hot war,
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  Speaker 2: it cannot be ignored.
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  Speaker 5: For nature. I think Belarus is a more danger for
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  Speaker 5: at the moment. It does not come, I think, directly
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  Speaker 5: from direct kinetic attack, but it certainly comes from using
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  Speaker 5: Belarus as a potential a stage in ground for some
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  Speaker 5: hybrid activity and form military signaling.
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  Speaker 2: Even if Lukashenka cannot actually refuse Putin, it's better for
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  Speaker 2: everyone if he at least seems able to make his
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  Speaker 2: own decisions.
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  Speaker 5: If Delarus had been the next then it's very clear
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  Speaker 5: it's part of their Russian military strategic space, but sort
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  Speaker 5: of keeping Belarus independent yet keeping it sort of, you know,
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  Speaker 5: cards open for further action. That's been very much part
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  Speaker 5: of Putins and Kremlin's playbook.
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: All right, wonders, Let's bring in Constantine A get DW.
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  Speaker 1: Russia analyst. Hello Constantine, lovely to see you. So look
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  Speaker 1: lookas and Cole says, Belarus doesn't want to fight? Can
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: he be trusted to stay out of the war?
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  Speaker 3: Well, I think that by now what Lukashenka says seems
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  Speaker 3: increasingly irrelevant. Putin is desperate to basically increase pressure on Ukraine.
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  Speaker 3: And I'd agree with the expert Katak blog in the
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  Speaker 3: previous piece that you add that it's not going to
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  Speaker 3: be an invasion of Ukraine from Bielarus by the Russian force,
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  Speaker 3: at least so far, I haven't seen any kind of
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  Speaker 3: activity that would resemble creating a military sort of significant
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  Speaker 3: deployment of Russian troops they are to invade. But yes, staging, missiles,
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  Speaker 3: staging basically draw on basics, Staging whatever helps to attack
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  Speaker 3: Ukraine from the north. That is absolutely possible. And I
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  Speaker 3: think that Lukashenka is gradually losing a ground in resisting
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  Speaker 3: Prutin's push to create a new sort of bridge. Had
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  Speaker 3: to attack your in Belus.
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: Right, So what I really want to get is how
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  Speaker 1: does Belarus and Indie Lukashenko benefit in any way by
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  Speaker 1: supporting Russia in the war against Ukraine.
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  Speaker 3: There's no benefit, Definitely. Lukashenko is there where he is
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  Speaker 3: for thirty two years. Elect to remember, reminds you and
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  Speaker 3: the audience he's been dictated for Belarus for thirty two
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  Speaker 3: years exactly because he said, you know what, we are
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  Speaker 3: very stable. This is going to be peace, that's going
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  Speaker 3: to be predictability. If Belarus joins the war efforts on
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  Speaker 3: Russia's behalf, then of course these promises go through the window,
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  Speaker 3: and rightly in dictatorship's public opinion still metals, although in
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  Speaker 3: a different way than in democracies. But I do think
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  Speaker 3: we're very very close, very close point when Lukashenko will
• 7:01
  Speaker 3: not be able to decide and in the end he
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  Speaker 3: will not oppose Putin if he really, really truly pushes
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  Speaker 3: to create this sort of new front from Belarus.
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  Speaker 1: Why do you think Ukraine clearly sees a growing threat
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  Speaker 1: from Belarus.
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  Speaker 3: Well, I think because already Belarus serves as a kind
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  Speaker 3: of logistics center, because there were the sort of relay
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  Speaker 3: stations that were guiding drones. Because evidently, if you look
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  Speaker 3: at the map, an attack from the north could threaten
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  Speaker 3: vital cities that were not so far massively touched by
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  Speaker 3: the war, northern and northwestern Ukraine. I think that in
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  Speaker 3: this respect, Belarus is a danger in the Belarus, not
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  Speaker 3: Belarus itself, but Putin's attack from Belarus is a danger
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  Speaker 3: for your grain. My understand is that Ukraine keeps some
• 8:01
  Speaker 3: forces on the border to potentially repel an attack by
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  Speaker 3: the Russians. But I do think that it's not going
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  Speaker 3: to be a full scale land invasion. I don't think
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  Speaker 3: Putin has a potential for that, resources for that. But
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  Speaker 3: missile shulling, drawn attacks, electronic warfare from bil Russian border,
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  Speaker 3: which basically just distance wise facilitates war that I think
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  Speaker 3: is quite right.
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  Speaker 1: I mean to one of the points you just made,
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  Speaker 1: because that's the interesting part, isn't it that even without
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: firing a shot, Belarus is forcing Ukraine to keep troops
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  Speaker 1: on its northern border. How strategically significant is that for Russia.
• 8:47
  Speaker 3: It is significant? And of course the the the the
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  Speaker 3: Kremlin would like more forces to be pinned in the
• 9:00
  Speaker 3: north in order to facilitate Russia's attacks in the east.
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  Speaker 3: So of course that creating in new front, even if
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  Speaker 3: it is not an invasion, drains resources from Ukraine, distracts
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  Speaker 3: Zelenski from and his generals from fighting in these I mean,
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  Speaker 3: it is clear that such an operation will be very
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  Speaker 3: beneficial to put And it's another matter that I think
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  Speaker 3: Ukraine is probably ready for such for such a thing
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  Speaker 3: and will respond that will definitely suck Belarus into this
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  Speaker 3: Quagmar will do in defacto eliminate Lukashenko is even a
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  Speaker 3: KWASI independent dictator and creating new geopolitical situation in Europe.
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  Speaker 3: I think also European allies Natal European natives. European allies
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  Speaker 3: will have to respond by basically massive more troops on board,
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  Speaker 3: as I mean, redeploying material. And I think that it
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  Speaker 3: will really change quite a few.
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  Speaker 1: Things, right. I mean, I was going to ask you
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  Speaker 1: about natu's role in all of this, you know, I'm
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  Speaker 1: just wondering, is NATO worried generally and what really can
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  Speaker 1: NATO do to really prevent Belarus from directly being used
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  Speaker 1: in this war?
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  Speaker 3: It can do nothing, but it can mass more troops,
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  Speaker 3: deploy more forces, Allied forces to the Baltic States, to
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  Speaker 3: the Polish border with Belarus, and mess more troops and
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  Speaker 3: material all the borders of Russia's Cleaningrad exclave, which borders
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  Speaker 3: on Poland and Lithuania. I think that Belarus being sucked
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  Speaker 3: into this conflict. Officially it is kind of part of
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  Speaker 3: this conflict now, but semi officially everyone pretends it's not
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  Speaker 3: that much.
• 11:00
  Speaker 7: I think, of course, we'll call for NATAL response, which
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  Speaker 7: will be showing that NATO's eastern flank will be defended
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  Speaker 7: no matter what I'm sure that that will right.
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  Speaker 1: Quick one on this before you go, Constantine. Where are
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  Speaker 1: we at with this war?
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  Speaker 3: Is?
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  Speaker 1: Are we talking to steelmates? Does Ukraine have the upper hand?
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  Speaker 1: What's going on?
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  Speaker 3: I think Ukraine has an upper hand for now, and
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  Speaker 3: I think put In desperately wants to make it at
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  Speaker 3: least the stalemate or probably catch the initiative and try
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  Speaker 3: and reverse the trend that's been devastating for him, both
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  Speaker 3: militarily and politically inside Russia.
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  Speaker 1: Right Russia analyst Constantine get thank you very much
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  Speaker 3: Always, Thanks Adie,