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Brad Olsen: Infometrics Principal Economist on Labour announcing a capital gains tax · Early Edition with Ryan Bridge

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: So you're just joining us this morning neighbors announced it's
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: a narrow capital gains tax. You have you have to say,
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: doesn't apply to businesses yet, doesn't apply to farms yet,
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: doesn't apply to key we saver yet, shares yet inheritance yet.
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: What it does apply to is commercial property and residential
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: property outside the family home sold after the first of
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: July twenty twenty seven. This court, of course, is all
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  Speaker 1: on the proviso that they get back in the government.
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: Brad Olfson infametrics with me this morning. Brad, good morning,
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: good morning. Yeah, they're taking the narrow option.
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  Speaker 2: Yes, I mean a very narrow option, as you say,
• 0:31
  Speaker 2: focused on residential and commercial property. I think, I mean
• 0:36
  Speaker 2: that's really because of the politics of this all. But
• 0:39
  Speaker 2: at the same time, as an economist, it does make
• 0:41
  Speaker 2: you wonder why they didn't go broader given this, Well,
• 0:45
  Speaker 2: looking at the likes of the housing market and similar
• 0:47
  Speaker 2: at the moment, there's not a huge amount of gains
• 0:49
  Speaker 2: happening in there, so the ability to produce revenue is
• 0:52
  Speaker 2: a lot different from when we had the capital gains
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  Speaker 2: tax a while ago. But realistically, again it seems like
• 0:59
  Speaker 2: you got this sort of very very narrow definition. If
• 1:02
  Speaker 2: it's not wide and broad based, it does sort of
• 1:04
  Speaker 2: be the question, why we're bothering with something so so specific?
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: How much would it raise? Do you reckon?
• 1:10
  Speaker 2: Well, that's sort of that the question I've been asking
• 1:13
  Speaker 2: myself the last sort of ten to fifteen minutes since
• 1:15
  Speaker 2: getting the releases. I don't know. There's no costings that
• 1:18
  Speaker 2: are outlined in the release around what might be brought
• 1:22
  Speaker 2: in or what the expectations might be. Now, as an
• 1:24
  Speaker 2: economic forecast, I get that putting out numbers can be difficult,
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  Speaker 2: but it's hard to sort of assess if we're talking
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  Speaker 2: ten million, one hundred million, or a billion dollars worth
• 1:33
  Speaker 2: of revenue over any sort of time period. I think,
• 1:35
  Speaker 2: given the limitations, and given how narrow of a capital
• 1:39
  Speaker 2: gains text expansion is being talked about here, I wouldn't
• 1:42
  Speaker 2: expect it to be a huge money spinner. But again,
• 1:45
  Speaker 2: it's sort of hard to evaluate given there's just no
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  Speaker 2: details that I can see.
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: There's more blank space on this release than the art words. Brad,
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  Speaker 1: what about the issue if you were an elderly person
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  Speaker 1: listening to this radio show this morning, and you have
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  Speaker 1: purchased a commercial property or a couple of rental properties
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: to your retirement and you were planning on selling them
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: in the next few years. This is going to be
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  Speaker 1: a real kick in the guts.
• 2:07
  Speaker 2: Well, it might seem like that to start with. I
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  Speaker 2: think we do have to take a little bit of
• 2:11
  Speaker 2: a breath before we get sort of too much into
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  Speaker 2: all of that, because my expectation, again without having read
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  Speaker 2: absolutely every new sort of legal piece has come out
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  Speaker 2: on this in the last fifteen is that it will
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  Speaker 2: likely only apply to those gains after the start of
• 2:24
  Speaker 2: the period. So if you bought something five years ago
• 2:27
  Speaker 2: and it's made one hundred K, it's not going to
• 2:29
  Speaker 2: get taxed until you start to make a gain after,
• 2:32
  Speaker 2: say twenty twenty seven. So I think we do have
• 2:34
  Speaker 2: to hold our breath a little bit on that because
• 2:37
  Speaker 2: people often say, well, I bought something thirty years ago
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  Speaker 2: and now it's going to get taxed to all kingdom. Come. No,
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  Speaker 2: that's not actually the case, but there is, I guess
• 2:44
  Speaker 2: a question over again how people might spend their money
• 2:47
  Speaker 2: or invest in the future. Question of course also of
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  Speaker 2: politics and how this plays out, what the vote does,
• 2:52
  Speaker 2: and everything else.
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: Appreciate your time, Brad brad Olson infor metrics.
• 2:56
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• 2:59
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• 3:02
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