Latest / Simply Bitcoin / NEW REPORT: $5.9T Firm Says 2026 is the Start of a Bitcoin Supercycle?! | EP 1399

Transcript

NEW REPORT: $5.9T Firm Says 2026 is the Start of a Bitcoin Supercycle?! | EP 1399 · Simply Bitcoin

• 0:00
  Yo, while most people believe that Bitcoin bull run is over, a
• 0:08
  huge firm just released a mass report.
• 0:12
  You need to see that's the $1,000,000 question or the
• 0:15
  million satoshi question or the million Bitcoin question is the
• 0:20
  Bitcoin bull run over and we have a report for you guys.
• 0:23
  It not only made the case for a 2026 Bitcoin bull run, but they
• 0:29
  even suggested this rally could last up to 10 years.
• 0:34
  Do they actually know something we don't?
• 0:36
  Or is this another classic counter indicator and the bear
• 0:40
  market is about to get worse anyways?
• 0:43
  Normal, normal, no more delay. Let's jump straight into the to
• 0:47
  the report. I don't know what's happening to
• 0:48
  me to me today. I'm like tripping over words and
• 0:50
  stuff. Anyways, what am I talking
• 0:52
  about? Here's a report by Fidelity.
• 0:55
  The reason I like Fidelity is they've been around the block.
• 0:59
  They're one of the only Bitcoin ETFs to actually custody their
• 1:04
  own Bitcoin. They've been in the game since
• 1:06
  2014. They know what the F they're
• 1:10
  talking about when it comes to Bitcoin, and they dropped a
• 1:13
  report heading into 2026. If you guys have been tuning
• 1:17
  into the show for the last couple of weeks, Opti and I have
• 1:21
  been on the opposite sides of the table, literally and
• 1:26
  figuratively, right? I guess that's the term.
• 1:29
  Opti comes from the school of thought that hey, he believes
• 1:32
  that the Bitcoin is going to continue, that the the Bitcoin
• 1:34
  bull run is going to continue. This time is different.
• 1:38
  A lot of smart people sit on that camp.
• 1:40
  By the way, you have the likes of Michael Saylor, you have the
• 1:44
  likes of Lynn Alden, you have the likes of of Lawrence
• 1:47
  Leppard, right? And then the case for why the
• 1:52
  bull market would continue in 2026 is because of the
• 1:56
  institutional adoption of Bitcoin.
• 1:59
  I'm coming from the other school of thought.
• 2:01
  I'm observing what's right in front of me.
• 2:04
  What am I observing? The four year cycle right now is
• 2:07
  completely intact. It seems like we peaked in
• 2:11
  October of 2025 at a top of 126,000 and it seems like we're
• 2:18
  heading into and we've been in the beginnings, the early
• 2:23
  innings of a Bitcoin bear market.
• 2:27
  At the end of the day, nobody knows.
• 2:29
  But MicroStrategy, I'll have to remind you guys, is even
• 2:33
  preparing for that themselves. We played you guys a clip of the
• 2:37
  CEO of MicroStrategy even saying that they are accumulating up to
• 2:42
  $1.5 billion in cash reserves, to use his words for a potential
• 2:48
  crypto winter, right? So again, no one knows the
• 2:52
  future. Anyone that tells you otherwise
• 2:54
  is lying. Anyone but you can.
• 2:57
  You can have an opinion. I have my opinion.
• 2:59
  Opti has his opinion. This would be my third bear
• 3:03
  market by now. And the reason that I'm feeling
• 3:06
  the way that I'm feeling is purely vibes.
• 3:08
  I remember this feeling. The only difference between the
• 3:12
  2017 peak and the 2021 peak is that this cycle it seems like if
• 3:18
  we topped, we topped on apathy. But I do remember the feeling
• 3:23
  afterwards, the feeling of like, oh, that was so obvious, of
• 3:28
  course. And we did have a little bit of
• 3:30
  a euphoria phase, but it wasn't the euphoria phase that we're
• 3:34
  used to. The euphoria phase that I
• 3:36
  remember was actually at the end of 2024.
• 3:40
  It was December of 2024 and it was January of 2025 when
• 3:46
  President Trump got inaugurated. That is when I felt the most
• 3:50
  amount of excitement and when the community felt the most
• 3:53
  amount of excitement for the incoming pro Bitcoin
• 3:56
  administration that promised that they were going to end
• 4:00
  operation choke .2 point O. Obviously the price didn't
• 4:04
  really coincide with that, but again, this cycle was very
• 4:08
  strange. We peaked before the halving
• 4:11
  right? That's really never happened
• 4:13
  before you had the introduction of the of the ETFs.
• 4:16
  Retail is nowhere to be seen this cycle.
• 4:21
  Retail does not give a flying F about Bitcoin.
• 4:25
  That's why there there wasn't an altcoin season this market that
• 4:30
  this cycle that all coin season then exists.
• 4:33
  If you were in altcoins, you've been getting absolutely wrecked
• 4:37
  since 2021, right, which is why we've always advocated since the
• 4:42
  beginning of simply Bitcoin, buy Bitcoin, stay humble stock sats
• 4:46
  and just, you know, take it easy anyways, monologue over going
• 4:50
  back to the report. What am I talking about?
• 4:52
  So this is a Fidelity report titled for the audio listeners
• 4:56
  2026 crypto market outlook. The sub headline is Bitcoin
• 5:03
  finds mainstream acceptance and it's a guy looking into the
• 5:07
  mountains, right? And you can interpret that in
• 5:09
  many different ways, right? Like, Oh my God, I'm going
• 5:13
  outside the bear market is coming or that's.
• 5:17
  Staring into the abyss and it's. Over or that's a very long drop.
• 5:23
  So you can inter or you can look at that and looking into the
• 5:26
  sunshine and he he just sees hope and inspiration, right?
• 5:29
  So it can be interpreted in many, many different ways.
• 5:32
  It's up to you to interpret it. But anyways, so let's read some
• 5:36
  of the key takeaways and then we'll dive into very specific
• 5:39
  parts of the report that I find interesting.
• 5:42
  Investors thinking about entering the market in hopes of
• 5:45
  short term gains may want to be cautious.
• 5:48
  However, those with the long term holding period may still
• 5:51
  not may still not be too late. This year, more world
• 5:56
  governments and corporations added digital assets to their
• 5:59
  treasuries due in part to this new demand.
• 6:02
  Some investors think traditional four year cycles may be over.
• 6:07
  And what have I been telling you for the last like 3 weeks?
• 6:10
  Ladies and gentlemen, right now we're in no man's land.
• 6:14
  Right now, we don't know. That's the like the the blunt,
• 6:19
  honest truth. We are already in uncharted
• 6:22
  territory. The famous meme of three green
• 6:25
  one red is broken. It's it's already invalid.
• 6:30
  We are down for the year. In fact, if you look at bitcoins
• 6:34
  performance for the last 365 days, bitcoins down like 12%.
• 6:39
  If you look at bitcoins performance year to date, we're
• 6:42
  still down. So this entire year has been a
• 6:46
  red year. Again, we have 14 days or 15
• 6:49
  days till the end of the year, but this entire year, if
• 6:52
  Bitcoin's price stays at these levels has been red.
• 6:56
  So we're already in uncharted territory, right?
• 6:59
  There's nothing in the past that we can look to to say, OK, you
• 7:04
  know what this is what I believe, this is what I believe
• 7:08
  how Bitcoin could potentially behave in the future.
• 7:11
  So anyways, let's get into the bulk of it, ladies and
• 7:14
  gentlemen. Will corporations continue
• 7:17
  buying Bitcoin? Governments aren't the only
• 7:19
  potential source of new demand in 2026.
• 7:23
  Corporations may increasingly get in on the action, some of
• 7:27
  which started adding Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies to their
• 7:31
  balance sheet in 2025. Thus far, one of the most
• 7:35
  publicized examples has been software and analytics company
• 7:38
  strategy. Of course, all you guys know
• 7:39
  that formerly known as MicroStrategy, which has been
• 7:43
  steadily buying Bitcoin since 2020.
• 7:45
  This year, however, more companies adopted this practice,
• 7:49
  turning it into a trend. As of November, well over 100
• 7:53
  publicly traded companies, both domestic and international firms
• 7:57
  now hold crypto, and over 1,000,000 Bitcoin is currently
• 8:00
  held by approximately 50 of them.
• 8:03
  I'm going to make a prediction. I usually don't make
• 8:06
  predictions, not investing advice.
• 8:08
  You can't really invest off this advice anyhow.
• 8:11
  But so far, simply Bitcoin has been pretty accurate when we
• 8:15
  make predictions. And again, we don't make price
• 8:17
  predictions. We make kind of like
• 8:19
  geopolitical predictions and kind of like, you know, Bitcoin
• 8:22
  market predictions. And we like to call ourselves
• 8:25
  tomorrow's Bitcoin news today, right?
• 8:28
  This is what I'm predicting. Last cycle, Michael Saylor and
• 8:34
  Naimbu Kelly both paid their price of tuition.
• 8:37
  You guys all remember what that feels like.
• 8:39
  Depending on the year that you guys got in, when you get into
• 8:42
  Bitcoin initially, the first one or two years are extremely
• 8:46
  painful. You probably didn't get in at
• 8:49
  the bottom. You probably got in on an
• 8:52
  uptrend. That the uptrend is what
• 8:54
  attracted you to Bitcoin in the 1st place.
• 8:56
  That's the majority of people, I would say.
• 8:58
  Then the inevitable bear market hits.
• 9:01
  Then you pay something called the price of tuition, right?
• 9:06
  Michael Saylor, he got in in 2021.
• 9:10
  He his average purchase price for Bitcoin was significantly
• 9:15
  higher when the bear market hit both the stock of his company,
• 9:19
  him himself as an individual got absolutely wrecked.
• 9:23
  I remember seeing him first row at Pacific Bitcoin in Los
• 9:28
  Angeles, and I remember on him on the 1st, 1st row and he was
• 9:33
  just serious and he was just watching all the presentations.
• 9:36
  But imagine that feeling. You have all this shareholder
• 9:39
  pressure, You've bought billions of dollars worth of Bitcoin and
• 9:43
  you're down. You're down hard, right?
• 9:46
  Naimbu Kelly, same thing. All the pressure from the IMF,
• 9:50
  all the pressure from the legacy financial media all over the
• 9:53
  world criticizing his decision on buying Bitcoin.
• 9:58
  And then what happened? They both got vindicated,
• 10:02
  Michael Saylor and Naimbu Kele as soon as the 2023-2024, I'm
• 10:09
  not even counting 2025 because it wasn't a bull market year,
• 10:12
  But as soon as 2023 and 2024 hit, both Naimbu Kele and
• 10:16
  Michael Saylor got vindicated. What we call in the Bitcoin
• 10:20
  industry, they paid their price of tuition this cycle.
• 10:24
  I'm predicting that Wall Street is paying their price of
• 10:30
  tuition. And here's the good news.
• 10:33
  Once Wall Street pays their price of tuition and they look
• 10:37
  like geniuses for investing in Bitcoin, believing in Bitcoin,
• 10:41
  like we've all gone through that at some point of our Bitcoin
• 10:45
  journeys, guess what's going to happen?
• 10:48
  I think you're going to see a bull run the likes of which
• 10:51
  you've never seen before because essentially it's not only going
• 10:55
  to be validated on a in a small nation state or it's not only
• 10:59
  going to be validated in a, in a, in a tech company, it's going
• 11:03
  to be validated across. You hear you.
• 11:05
  You see it here across 50 publicly traded companies and
• 11:11
  that's going to force the likes of Google, the likes of Meta,
• 11:15
  the likes of Apple to say, listen, if we don't buy Bitcoin
• 11:21
  or have exposure to Bitcoin, we are going to be at a fundamental
• 11:24
  strategic disadvantage compared to companies that do hold
• 11:29
  Bitcoin. And that's when I think the game
• 11:31
  is going to change anyways. So the report continues to ask
• 11:37
  the question what we've been asking for these last couple
• 11:40
  since really October. Simply Bitcoin has been in a
• 11:44
  holding pattern since October and we've been asking ourselves
• 11:47
  the same, right? We had this mini euphoria in
• 11:50
  October. We thought finally October 1st
• 11:53
  hit, wow, dude, we're getting our price run.
• 11:57
  And then no, no, no, no. And then it just all kind of
• 12:01
  right and every, and we've been asking ourselves this to the
• 12:05
  point that Opti and I are fighting on air, right?
• 12:08
  Walker America came on the show the other day, you know, called
• 12:11
  me a bear, right? Opti's calling me a bear.
• 12:15
  I'm sticking to my guns, right? The four year cycle is intact
• 12:21
  until it's not intact until I see information that tells me
• 12:25
  that the four year cycle is broken.
• 12:29
  I'm seeing the four year cycle. I'm saying, look, the four year
• 12:31
  cycle is playing out exactly how the four year cycle has always
• 12:35
  played out. So even Fidelity is asking the
• 12:39
  question. And The thing is, if enough
• 12:41
  market participants believe in the four year cycle, it kind of
• 12:44
  becomes this kind of like self fulfilling prophecy, right?
• 12:48
  But anyways, what is the counterforce to that?
• 12:50
  The counterforce to that is all the institutional interest
• 12:55
  that's coming in, right. I think that if we do have a
• 12:58
  traditional four year cycle and we are entering into a bear
• 13:03
  market. Another thing they'll say and I
• 13:05
  could be totally wrong here, this is not investing advice is
• 13:09
  I, I think it's going to be much more muted than the 80%
• 13:13
  downturns that we've had in the past.
• 13:15
  It might be 50%, might be 60% etcetera, etcetera.
• 13:19
  But could I do I foresee an 85% correction, an 80% correction on
• 13:24
  Bitcoins time horizon in, in the future?
• 13:27
  I, I just don't see that happening.
• 13:29
  It's a much larger asset, right? So anyways, they even asked the
• 13:34
  question and let's see what they have to say.
• 13:36
  During Bitcoin's brief history relative to traditional markets
• 13:39
  like stocks and bonds, its price has moved in roughly 4 year
• 13:43
  cycles, measured from bull market top to bull market top or
• 13:48
  bear market bottom to bear market bottom.
• 13:51
  It formed bull market tops in November 2013, December 2017,
• 13:56
  and November 2021, as well as bear market bottoms in January
• 14:01
  2015, December 2018, and November 2022.
• 14:05
  These cycles have been accompanied by significant price
• 14:08
  swings. The first cycle saw a drop from
• 14:11
  1150 to 152, the 2nd 19,800 to 3032 hundred.
• 14:18
  That one was painful. I remember that one.
• 14:20
  I think me and Opti became friends at that point, during
• 14:23
  that, during that pain, during that madness when there was
• 14:26
  actual volatility in Bitcoin and the 3rd 69,000 to 15,500.
• 14:33
  And as Bitcoin behaves, the rest of the crypto market has tended
• 14:37
  to follow in many cases an even more dramatic fashion.
• 14:41
  Currently, we're around the four year mark of the current cycle
• 14:45
  as the last bull market topped in November 2021.
• 14:48
  And over the last month crypto prices have been dropping.
• 14:52
  So could the current bull market have topped?
• 14:55
  If the four year cycle repeats, we could be at or near the end
• 15:00
  of the current bull market for Bitcoin.
• 15:02
  However, some crypto investors think this historic trend is
• 15:07
  coming to an end, like Opti, and that the current drawdown in
• 15:12
  price is just a temporary pullback before the market
• 15:15
  resumes its uptrend. What does this mean?
• 15:18
  Specifically, some investors believe that while there will
• 15:22
  still be pull backs in price, any drops will be substantially
• 15:26
  less volatile than they have in the past.
• 15:28
  I fit into that category and could be small enough that they
• 15:32
  won't feel like full blown bear markets.
• 15:34
  I don't know if I would go that far.
• 15:36
  Others, but others believe we could be entering into a super
• 15:40
  cycle where the bull market continues for years into the
• 15:44
  future. For reference, a super cycle in
• 15:46
  commodities in the 2000s spanned nearly a decade.
• 15:50
  That would be fantastic. That sounds amazing.
• 15:54
  Don't give me that opium. Fidelity Coupier doesn't think
• 15:58
  these cycles all are all together over as the fear and
• 16:03
  greed that create them haven't magically disappeared.
• 16:06
  However, he notes if the four year cycle was to repeat we
• 16:10
  would need to have already put in the all time high of the
• 16:14
  cycle and be continuing into a full blown bear market.
• 16:18
  While the draw down in November has has so far been severe, he
• 16:22
  notes we may not know until 2026 whether it confirms A4 year
• 16:27
  cycle. The current drop in price could
• 16:30
  be the start of a new bear market, or it could be just the
• 16:34
  OR it could just be a bull market drawdown that resolves a
• 16:38
  new all time highs like we've seen a few times so far this
• 16:42
  cycle. Whether these predictions come
• 16:44
  true remain to be seen. We may not know for sure until
• 16:47
  well into 2026. That I completely agree with.
• 16:51
  And by the way, I'm not sure either.
• 16:53
  I have my suspicions, Opti has his suspicions, but I just, I'm
• 16:58
  not confident, like I'm not 100% confident in that because of two
• 17:05
  really like 3 primary reasons. Reason number one, we never
• 17:10
  entered the euphoria phase, right?
• 17:12
  We had a tease of it, a tease of it in the end of 2024, beginning
• 17:18
  of 2025, but the price never entered the euphoria phase.
• 17:22
  The price never went into full blown off top type of situation.
• 17:28
  Reason #2 we have a pro Bitcoin administration that has a lot
• 17:34
  riding on the performance of Bitcoin, right?
• 17:37
  His administration got a lot of donations by the industry I was
• 17:42
  making. I was making a joke a couple
• 17:43
  weeks ago. I was saying like, bring back
• 17:46
  Kamala. I hear the Kakala in the
• 17:48
  background because at least during Operation Choke .2 Point
• 17:52
  O. In fact, during its worst years,
• 17:54
  Bitcoin's price was actually running up.
• 17:58
  During 2023 and 2024, the Bitcoin price action was
• 18:01
  actually fantastic. When Trump was inaugurated, the
• 18:04
  Bitcoin price was at 109,012 months into his administration,
• 18:10
  we're at $87,000, right? So do I think there could also
• 18:17
  be, you know, some sabotage by the Federal Reserve?
• 18:20
  I, I, I truly believe that, right?
• 18:21
  Like not lowering rates fast enough.
• 18:24
  The Federal Reserve's hostility towards Bitcoin.
• 18:27
  They don't want the Trump administration to succeed
• 18:29
  because he is pro Bitcoin in terms of his policy.
• 18:34
  Could that be the case? Perhaps.
• 18:36
  But then if that were the case, why did Bitcoin pump so hard
• 18:39
  during, you know, the Biden administration that was actively
• 18:43
  trying to sabotage the the Bitcoin industry, right?
• 18:48
  And then case and then the reason #3 I said there I had
• 18:51
  there's three reasons is the amount of institutional adoption
• 18:55
  and institutional interest in Bitcoin, which is unfound, like
• 18:59
  it's never happened before in Bitcoin's history.
• 19:01
  This is the reason that we hit an all time high before the
• 19:03
  having is because of the amount of institutional interest,
• 19:07
  right? So the fact that Bitcoin is the
• 19:09
  most profitable ETF that BlackRock has, the fact that
• 19:12
  Bitcoin is the most successful ETF that BlackRock has ever had,
• 19:17
  like tells you everything you need to know, right?
• 19:20
  In terms of how invested Black Rock is in in in Bitcoin, like
• 19:27
  maybe perhaps not themselves directly, but they obviously
• 19:30
  want their products to succeed. If the Bitcoin ETF is their most
• 19:33
  profitable product, what do you think they want to happen with
• 19:36
  Bitcoin? They want the the price to go up
• 19:38
  because they know that more people are going to buy the ETF,
• 19:40
  right? It's not rocket science.
• 19:42
  So for those three reasons, it gives me the vibes again, just
• 19:48
  going off vibes here that this time could be different and
• 19:52
  Optique could be right and Walker could be right and Lynn
• 19:55
  could could be right and Michael Saylor could be right.
• 19:58
  I think Jack Mahler's also could be right.
• 20:01
  In terms of 2026 being a bull market year.
• 20:04
  Michael Saylor believes that 2026 is also the year that
• 20:08
  banking. And gets into the industry, you
• 20:11
  kind of saw the civil war between JP Morgan, Jamie Dimon
• 20:16
  and and Michael Saylor. Jamie Dimon's trying to take
• 20:19
  market share of some of strategy's market, right in
• 20:23
  terms of some of their offerings.
• 20:25
  They're like fighting strategy and then simultaneously
• 20:28
  launching a Bitcoin product like this is all happening while
• 20:32
  we're in the beginning of a bear market like that.
• 20:35
  And then also not to mention all the sovereign wealth funds
• 20:38
  announcing, hey, we're buying Bitcoin.
• 20:39
  Like a lot of that doesn't really make sense, right?
• 20:43
  And again, if you take a look at all the other cycles, the
• 20:47
  fundamentals just ran out. Like there was absolutely no
• 20:51
  epic reason the price should have ran up to $17,000, like I
• 20:55
  mean $19,000 in 2017. The only reason that it did was
• 20:59
  because of like Bro smash by I'm gonna Get rich overnight.
• 21:02
  Like, that's literally the only reason that I did that, right?
• 21:05
  Anyways, it continues to say, in light of all of this, investors
• 21:11
  who haven't entered the market may be wondering if it's a still
• 21:14
  a good time to buy Bitcoin for Coupier.
• 21:17
  It depends on your time horizon. If you're hoping to capture
• 21:19
  gains in the short or medium term, four to five years or
• 21:22
  less, there's a chance you may be late, especially if the cycle
• 21:26
  ends up following up historical precedent quote.
• 21:28
  However, on a long term horizon, I personally do not think you
• 21:32
  can ever be fundamentally late to Bitcoin if you are thinking
• 21:36
  of it as a store of value. As long as it is hard supply cap
• 21:40
  remains in place. I believe potentially every
• 21:43
  purchase of Bitcoin is putting your labor or savings into
• 21:46
  something that won't lose value due to the inflation result.
• 21:49
  Inflation resulting from government monetary policy, AK
• 21:53
  money printing. So I'm gonna leave it at that.
• 21:57
  I'm gonna leave this chart and then Opti, if you want to do a
• 22:00
  wide, let's just have a conversation about it, bro.
• 22:03
  Because like now even Fidelity is playing the Niko Opti role.
• 22:10
  And by the way, we did not do this on purpose.
• 22:12
  We did play good cop, bad cop on purpose just to entertain you
• 22:16
  guys. It totally just happened
• 22:18
  organically. Yeah, he's not faking his
• 22:21
  bearishness. No, like I, I, I actually feel
• 22:24
  this way. So I I wanna get your.
• 22:28
  OK, let me, let me get in here. We had 25 minutes of pure
• 22:31
  bearishness. It's almost too much to cope
• 22:33
  with right now, Nico, so let me let.
• 22:35
  Me do that, let me do the. Bullish case here.
• 22:37
  Look, all right, first of all on this report, I do want to touch
• 22:42
  on one thing before I kind of make my bullish case.
• 22:45
  I guess the first part that I want to touch on is where it
• 22:50
  said, you know, in Bitcoin, we've been saying super cycle
• 22:52
  for a long time and I was trolling yesterday.
• 22:55
  One of my friends, Justifer shouts out to Justifer.
• 22:57
  Justifer, he created Ambos BK alumni back in the day.
• 23:01
  If you know, you know he did the post like Fidelity said the word
• 23:05
  like Fidelity said it super cycle.
• 23:08
  Here we go. And I was trolling and I'm like,
• 23:11
  oh, it's so over. Like it's so over.
• 23:13
  Every time Bitcoiners start talking about a super cycle,
• 23:17
  that's usually your key that this is a top, even though we're
• 23:21
  not at the top. Usually when Bitcoiners start
• 23:23
  talking super cycle is when, you know, like we're going into a
• 23:27
  bear market that's just kind of like the classic Bitcoin
• 23:30
  heuristic. Anytime Bitcoiners start saying
• 23:32
  super cycle, you just pack it up.
• 23:34
  Just pack it up. Hold on me when I'm.
• 23:37
  Saying I'm trolling, I'm I'm low key trolling.
• 23:39
  I I am trolling here. I'm trolling a little bit.
• 23:43
  So that that's like my first kind of troll though.
• 23:46
  Backing this up with actually some kind of, you know,
• 23:49
  historical context here. Like gold, everyone's been
• 23:52
  saying recently like, oh, you know, Bitcoin could be in a 10
• 23:56
  year bear market like gold was. And I usually retort with like,
• 24:00
  yeah, but it had a 12 year bull run before that.
• 24:02
  So, you know, there is historical precedent, precedent
• 24:06
  in commodities where assets do run for a decade.
• 24:09
  So, you know, Bitcoin we do believe a kind of the meme, I
• 24:13
  really don't like the meme of digital gold, but Bitcoin, it
• 24:16
  has been acting like a digital gold, a, you know, a digital
• 24:19
  store of value. So there is context for
• 24:22
  commodities to run for decades, A decade, 12 years, etcetera.
• 24:26
  So that point, even though it sounds kind of crazy right now,
• 24:29
  the fact that, yeah, you know, super cycle, whenever Bitcoiners
• 24:32
  start saying super cycle like it's a bear market, you know, I
• 24:35
  am kind of trolling when I when I kind of play into that, that
• 24:39
  rhetoric here. But again, there is context for
• 24:41
  that happening. So I've been hearing a lot of
• 24:43
  people say like, yo, this could be the start of bitcoins 10 year
• 24:47
  bear market again. You know, that would, that would
• 24:50
  presuppose that maybe the last 16 years is like all the
• 24:53
  Bitcoiners say we've been on a bull run since 2009.
• 24:56
  Who really knows? No, hearing everything that Nico
• 25:00
  said, I, I'd like first of all, the, the chat is livid right
• 25:04
  now, Nico, cuz they, one, they think that you're, you're being
• 25:07
  bearish for entertainment. And two, they're just like mad
• 25:11
  that you're, you're being bearish and they're like,
• 25:13
  you're, you're ruining simply. Oh my guys like he it, it's OK
• 25:17
  that he's bearish. Like there's a non zero chance
• 25:19
  that he could be right that we are going into a bear market,
• 25:22
  but that doesn't that doesn't mean that we're not bullish long
• 25:26
  term. And he's just saying, look, if
• 25:27
  you're looking at everything it, it could be playing out exactly
• 25:30
  how how it's been playing. And the fact that we have this
• 25:33
  different opinions here is literally like we say, it's it's
• 25:36
  not for entertainment here. We actually disagree on this
• 25:39
  and. Let me and let me be clear too
• 25:40
  also like if you guys are new to the channel like I'm extremely
• 25:44
  bullish on Bitcoin long term. I think we'll see half
• 25:47
  $1,000,000 Bitcoin 2030, even though I said that in the
• 25:51
  beginning of the year and I jinxed it.
• 25:52
  So at this point I don't even want to say things like that.
• 25:54
  But I'm extremely bullish on Bitcoin long term for one simple
• 25:58
  reason. It's Infinity divided by 21
• 26:00
  million, right? Governments are going to
• 26:02
  continue debasing the currency. When governments debase the
• 26:05
  currency, asset prices go up. My opinion is that bitcoin's the
• 26:09
  best asset the world has ever seen.
• 26:11
  Therefore it's like a monetary black hole, right?
• 26:13
  That that's my base case on Bitcoin.
• 26:15
  I'm extremely bullish on Bitcoin long term.
• 26:17
  I think it's gonna continue to go up forever, Laura, but I,
• 26:21
  what I'm, what I am seeing is like the obvious in front of me.
• 26:26
  So if I were telling you, if I were telling you not what I
• 26:30
  truly believe in my, my, my heart and soul, then I wouldn't
• 26:33
  be authentic and I wouldn't be doing I, I, I wouldn't be
• 26:36
  speaking my truth right. And again, at the end of the
• 26:40
  day, look, the, the truth is what the market says, right?
• 26:44
  So like fundamentally right now the market is saying Bitcoin is
• 26:47
  worth $87,448. That's what the market is
• 26:51
  saying. That's what the market believes.
• 26:53
  And I'm just comparing and contrasting that with where the
• 26:57
  the Bitcoin price was exactly a year ago and where the price of
• 27:01
  Bitcoin was when Trump was inaugurated and it was 109,000.
• 27:05
  So the market valued Bitcoin more a year ago.
• 27:09
  I'm a year older, bro. OK.
• 27:12
  Like God damn right. Like I had a daughter and now
• 27:15
  she's two years old, right? Like it's a long time.
• 27:18
  And in Bitcoin terms too, like in maybe in the grand scheme of
• 27:22
  life, a year isn't a long time. But like in Bitcoin terms, like
• 27:26
  if you guys are new here, a year is like a decade.
• 27:28
  Like you age, like you get Gray hairs and like a lot of things
• 27:32
  have happened, right? And the price of Bitcoin has
• 27:36
  been flat, right? Like Opti showed you Opti, if
• 27:39
  you want to pull up that chart, right?
• 27:40
  Like it's crazy, dude. Like you have the historical
• 27:43
  Bitcoin, the yearly, the yearly chart like you see bitcoins for.
• 27:49
  Yeah, I mean he. I agree it's not pretty.
• 27:52
  So like totally not ready. So like.
• 27:54
  That that's all I'm talking about.
• 27:55
  Like I'm not trying to be this like.
• 27:57
  You know, dude, you're just, I, I can't even say it, but you're
• 28:00
  a bear and it's OK. It's OK that you're a bear.
• 28:03
  You know, it's fine. It, it's totally fine that
• 28:06
  you're a bear. I just totally disagree.
• 28:08
  Look, Nico, I think like, look at that.
• 28:12
  Yeah, it's horrible, but look, all right, I'm glad you brought
• 28:15
  this. Up and like zoom zoom like give
• 28:17
  it more I'm. What?
• 28:19
  Zoom out. If you're like, go, go to the
• 28:20
  right, go to the right. Yeah, exactly, like, like, and
• 28:23
  then scroll to the left, like go left.
• 28:26
  Yeah, exactly. Just leave it right there.
• 28:27
  Like look at that. So like we've never seen that.
• 28:32
  Before, Yeah. And.
• 28:33
  And This is why. All right, I'm glad.
• 28:35
  I'm glad we're doing this, Nikko, because this is my
• 28:37
  contention. Look, as Nico said, this cycle
• 28:42
  has been absolutely different. Whether you doing it this time
• 28:46
  is different or not, the the four year cycle in and of itself
• 28:50
  is not playing out how it used to in the past.
• 28:52
  If you look at this chart, it's literally showing you exactly
• 28:55
  that. The three green years, one red
• 28:58
  year, that's not where we are. So yes, the four year cycle in
• 29:02
  the sense of 18 months after the halving, maybe this is where the
• 29:05
  contention is. If you say, hey, look, 18 months
• 29:08
  after the halving, we hit a top. That's exactly what we're
• 29:11
  hitting right now. But the four year cycle, as
• 29:13
  bitcoiners know, is 3 green years, one red.
• 29:16
  Well, if we end the year in two weeks where we are now, that
• 29:20
  meme breaks, it's 2 green one red.
• 29:22
  And for everyone watching my my, it's blue for green.
• 29:25
  I'm I'm colorblind. It helps me see this a little
• 29:27
  better. So that point is, is like that
• 29:31
  that meme broke it. It's no longer 3 green, one red.
• 29:34
  The four year meme in my opinion is broken even if the top was in
• 29:40
  October because of that meme in and of itself and that goes into
• 29:44
  a lot of the stuff we've been saying on the show for a while.
• 29:47
  Is 1. We had the all time high before
• 29:49
  the having 2. The parabolic green year is
• 29:52
  absolutely wrecked. That's not playing out three, we
• 29:56
  finally got all the institutions, all of the nation
• 29:59
  states coming into Bitcoin. So like this time is different,
• 30:03
  just bar none. It's it's completely different.
• 30:05
  So that's my kind of basic view of where we are right now.
• 30:09
  Like things have changed. That's all I'm saying.
• 30:12
  I'm like, yeah, you know, Bitcoin had a 1516 year history.
• 30:15
  It was very easy and predictable to understand what the Bitcoin
• 30:19
  market was going to do and retail was in control of that.
• 30:22
  But now we all know institutions are here, they're dwarfing all
• 30:27
  of the buys. Retail is nowhere to be found.
• 30:30
  So retail is no longer in control of this.
• 30:32
  Plus we have the having now that literally barely releases any
• 30:36
  Bitcoin into the ecosystem, or rather doesn't release that much
• 30:40
  Bitcoin. When you're have seeing all
• 30:42
  these ETF buys, when you're seeing nation states buying,
• 30:46
  yes, it could be potentially Bitcoin and they're not actually
• 30:48
  buying Bitcoin, but the the amount of supposed institutional
• 30:52
  buy right now is absolutely like I forget the numbers and I'd
• 30:57
  have to go pick it up for you or maybe someone in the chat can
• 30:59
  say it to me. It's like 4 or five times what
• 31:02
  the the having schedule is releasing right now.
• 31:05
  Yes, there's been a lot of whale sailing right now, but the fact
• 31:09
  we've been holding on this long just shows how much of an
• 31:12
  unlimited bid is down there. It just shows there is a lot of
• 31:15
  interest in Bitcoin now the mechanisms, you know, whether
• 31:19
  that's actually they're actually buying Bitcoiners paper Bitcoin
• 31:22
  going to the ETFs. But it just shows me that all
• 31:25
  the dynamics that Bitcoiners that we've been used to for the
• 31:29
  last 15-16 years have fundamentally changed.
• 31:32
  And I have been bringing up kind of the chart and I don't I don't
• 31:35
  want to chart boy more to you guys 'cause some of you guys
• 31:37
  like it, some of you guys don't. But essentially since the ETF
• 31:41
  has been launched essentially since 2023, I know the ETF was
• 31:46
  what was that 2024? But since 2023, since the bottom
• 31:50
  of the the last kind of bull bear cycle, we've been in this
• 31:55
  constant uptrend. It's just kind of going up and
• 31:58
  to the right, you know, in a very slow methodical manner.
• 32:02
  We've seen multiple 30% pull backs and we are currently in
• 32:06
  our 3rd 30% pull back, which kind of shows me like if we
• 32:12
  continue through this process right here and I know there's a
• 32:16
  date in December 26th, there's going to be a lot of like calls
• 32:21
  and options expiring, which is going to kind of reset the
• 32:24
  market for 2026. So in the next couple of days
• 32:28
  we're going to see whether we are completely following, you
• 32:33
  know, the October 26th top 18 months after the halving, we see
• 32:37
  a, a bear market, which again is a non zero chance.
• 32:41
  Like I, I don't think Nico is necessarily you know saying
• 32:45
  anything crazy. It's like based on what we've
• 32:48
  seen in the past, it is playing out almost exactly as we kind of
• 32:53
  imagined it 18 months after the halving, you see the top.
• 32:55
  It is what it is, bear market confirmed.
• 32:58
  But all of the stuff that we've been covering all year long, all
• 33:02
  of the kind of bullish news, the bullish attention, whether
• 33:06
  you're from the regulatory front, you know, we're, we're
• 33:08
  starting to see new regulatory front from the CFTC, the SEC.
• 33:12
  So finally the ship is turning on that front.
• 33:15
  Everyone can finally go in. We're seeing all the banks be
• 33:17
  able to go in now last week, we've seen literally every huge
• 33:22
  major bank in the US start to embrace Bitcoin, drop Bitcoin
• 33:25
  products, announce collateral, announce loan products, and that
• 33:30
  is going worldwide. We've seen sovereign wealth
• 33:32
  funds around the world start to embrace Bitcoin.
• 33:35
  We've seen nation states start to embrace Bitcoin.
• 33:37
  Now, of course, I want to see individuals start to save in
• 33:41
  Bitcoin, but all of this combined is just telling me like
• 33:44
  this is different. That's kind of the view I'm
• 33:48
  taking. Like, yes, I get, you know, the
• 33:50
  heuristic of 18 months after the having, yadda, yadda, yadda.
• 33:53
  But this is fundamentally different.
• 33:55
  It is a new era. Bitcoin has fundamentally
• 33:58
  matured. And even the beginning, the
• 33:59
  subtitle of that Fidelity report said that same thing, like
• 34:02
  Bitcoin is maturing. It's mainstream now or main?
• 34:06
  Yeah, mainstream now, Yes. It's not mainstream to
• 34:09
  individuals, but Wall Street really wants it.
• 34:12
  And what's Wall Street if not Main Street like, if not, if
• 34:15
  Wall Street isn't mainstream, I don't know what is.
• 34:17
  They are mainstream. So the institutions are here.
• 34:21
  They want the Bitcoin and it's it's among it's our duty here as
• 34:25
  Bitcoin, even if it is a bear market to stack as much Bitcoin
• 34:29
  as possible. Like do I think this is going to
• 34:32
  go on forever? Do I think we're going to see an
• 34:34
  80% drawdown? I don't do I think this 36%
• 34:38
  drawdown that we're currently in is kind of the bottom, like I'm
• 34:41
  leaning more towards that. I don't think it's going to go
• 34:44
  much lower than like 70 K tops, which would be maybe like a 50%
• 34:49
  drawdown and have to kind of, you know, chart boy a little bit
• 34:51
  here. But in my head, all of this
• 34:53
  stuff, maybe it's because I am more like macro focus right now
• 34:57
  and there is this macro cycle that's shifting being a lot more
• 35:01
  bullish going into 2026, which is kind of, I don't know,
• 35:04
  influencing my view that 2026 could potentially be a bullish
• 35:08
  year for everything here. Like the money printers coming
• 35:10
  back on the interest rates are are coming down.
• 35:14
  Like the free money is coming back into the system.
• 35:18
  The liquidity is going to be running hot.
• 35:19
  And I'm like, all of this together just makes me think
• 35:23
  like there is no possible way that the liquidity isn't going
• 35:27
  to find its way into Bitcoin, especially once everyone kind of
• 35:33
  stops feeling the uncertainty in the markets 'cause there's been
• 35:35
  a lot of uncertainty throughout this whole year, so.
• 35:38
  But again, dude, like that, like this is what happens every, this
• 35:41
  is what happens every bear market.
• 35:43
  Like this is what happens every bear.
• 35:44
  Market. I don't disagree, I'm just
• 35:45
  saying. Every bear market is the same
• 35:47
  thing, right? I'm just saying it's like
• 35:49
  there's a reason as to why it should continue and it just
• 35:52
  doesn't, right. And like this is where like Opti
• 35:56
  and I are kind of in disagreement.
• 35:58
  And this is where even the the our our friends over fidelity
• 36:00
  are just like. Yeah, they were totally on the
• 36:03
  fence. Like it could be over, it could
• 36:05
  not be over. I kind of have no idea what's
• 36:07
  going to happen like that. That's the reality.
• 36:09
  And by the way, guys, if you're tuning into your favorite a lot,
• 36:13
  a lot of these people are my friends, but I'm not going to
• 36:17
  name any names. I'll just put it to you simply,
• 36:21
  no pun intended. No one has any idea what the
• 36:24
  price of Bitcoin is going to be at six months from now.
• 36:26
  No one has any idea like TA, you know, Part I, I watch it for
• 36:32
  entertainment. I'm part of those, one of those
• 36:33
  people, but I understand it's entertainment.
• 36:37
  But anyone who's like trying to chart boy this and like try to
• 36:41
  give you an expectation or saying, oh, we're gonna have an
• 36:43
  end of the year rally and whatever this and that, no one
• 36:46
  has an effing clue. And this year, I hope that all
• 36:50
  you guys have come to that realization because every single
• 36:54
  prediction from every single well known person, including
• 36:57
  myself, by the way, I was tweeting 500K Bitcoin in the
• 37:00
  beginning. Yeah.
• 37:01
  Including me. Including me.
• 37:03
  Because again, I was excited that the Trump administration
• 37:05
  was coming in. Everyone was wrong, like
• 37:09
  completely effing wrong. Let me say that again,
• 37:12
  completely effing wrong, right? So that's just something to keep
• 37:17
  in mind. Is that like no one knows where
• 37:21
  the price is going. Even Fidelity is like fence
• 37:24
  sitting and towards the end of bear markets, you come up with
• 37:29
  reasons as to why the bull market is going to continue,
• 37:33
  right? So again, observing here, right.
• 37:37
  I'm really glad that Opti and I have both different opinions
• 37:39
  because if we were both bullish, I think it would be bad.
• 37:42
  If we were both bullish, it would be totally bad and I
• 37:44
  think. And I think if we were both
• 37:46
  bearish, it would be boring. Now, if we were both bearish, it
• 37:49
  would be bullish. So I'll and I'll and I'll say
• 37:51
  this, as soon as Opti turns into a bear, that's when we're going
• 37:55
  to start going up. Not going to happen.
• 37:57
  That's the bottom signal. This is true.
• 37:59
  This is true. Opti's bear capitulation is the
• 38:03
  bottom signal every single time. So we don't know when that's
• 38:07
  going to happen. Anyways, guys, it's going to be,
• 38:10
  it's going to be a fantastic show.
• 38:12
  We have tons to cover today, ladies and gentlemen.
• 38:15
  The interesting question was thrown at Trump, President Trump
• 38:18
  yesterday regarding the Samurai wallet developers, whether he
• 38:22
  was going to give him a pardon or not.
• 38:24
  Again, this shows the power and influence of our industry.
• 38:28
  I know that one of the developers was making the rounds
• 38:31
  and all the podcasts he was scheduled to come on today.
• 38:33
  We're we're going to have a special surprise for you guys.
• 38:36
  Unfortunately, he couldn't make it.
• 38:37
  But anyhow, that's being asked to President Trump.
• 38:41
  President Trump owes our industry a lot.
• 38:44
  We raised a lot of money for him and you can make a very strong
• 38:47
  argument that the reason that he won this previous election was
• 38:50
  because of people in Bitcoin, unless he wouldn't have gone to
• 38:53
  the Bitcoin conference if he didn't think so, right.
• 38:56
  Another thing I'll I'll bring up on your guys radar.
• 38:59
  It's an excellent article by Lola Leets regarding the Tornado
• 39:06
  Cash case. Now the Tornado Cash case and
• 39:08
  the Samurai case in, in my opinion are inherently linked.
• 39:12
  And also we had a a post by Eleanor Tourette.
• 39:18
  She was formerly, she was formerly with Fox Business.
• 39:21
  Now she is with Crypto America. Anyways, great journalist, great
• 39:26
  reporting. And she's basically making the
• 39:28
  argument that there is going to be no more legislation this
• 39:32
  year, this year. So the Clarity Act that we were
• 39:36
  all hoping for, apparently that's not going to be passed.
• 39:39
  And my opinion, that's not good news because I think currently
• 39:45
  how things stand, unless Trump pumps Bitcoin to 500 Ki think
• 39:49
  the GOP is going to lose the, the, the midterm, the midterm
• 39:52
  year. I think they'll hold the Senate,
• 39:54
  but I think they'll, they'll lose the, the House.
• 39:58
  And if they lose the House? I'm just not bullish on any
• 40:02
  crypto legislation, Bitcoin crypto legislation at all
• 40:05
  whatsoever. So we're going to be talking
• 40:08
  about all of that during the show.
• 40:09
  And Opti, what do you have during the culture segment?
• 40:12
  We're, we're getting some more information coming out of the
• 40:14
  Fed on who the next Fed chair is and the new lead, he's sounding
• 40:21
  kind of bullish on Bitcoin as well.
• 40:23
  So as of now, both of the leading guys that are supposedly
• 40:28
  going to be in the Fed are basically Bitcoiners now.
• 40:32
  So we we are we're not on the boat of ending the Fed yet, but
• 40:36
  we might get bitcoiners in the Fed and then and then we're
• 40:39
  we're seeing guys, the liquidity is back on the table boys.
• 40:41
  They they, they already started it's happening.
• 40:44
  They they, they rebranded QE. They rebranded QE.
• 40:47
  So I'm going to hit those two things.
• 40:48
  We're going to talk about both that's.
• 40:49
  Not QE anymore, ladies and gentlemen, but it's still money
• 40:52
  printing. Anyways, we're going to be right
• 40:53
  back in just a bit. But before we do that, I do want
• 40:56
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• 42:24
  back in just a little bit, guys. Stay tuned and smash the like
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  stampse-ed.com. At the time of recording, the
• 44:40
  Bitcoin price is $87,520. Block height 928,157 Market cap
• 44:47
  1.75 trillion Bitcoin versus Gold market cap 5.72% Decline
• 44:53
  from all time high -30.6%. And the grand scheme of things?
• 44:58
  We are just getting started, ladies and gentlemen.
• 45:01
  We have been pushing behind the scenes tremendously to raise
• 45:07
  awareness on the injustice that is happening with the
• 45:12
  persecution of the Tornado Cash developers and the the Samurai
• 45:18
  wallet developers. The attack on open source
• 45:21
  software is here. The attack on privacy is here.
• 45:26
  As a Bitcoiner, as Bitcoiners at Simply Bitcoin, we believe that
• 45:30
  privacy is a fundamental human right.
• 45:34
  We believe that you can cannot have freedom without privacy.
• 45:39
  We believe that wholeheartedly. We believe that you can't speak
• 45:43
  freely without privacy if government has complete control
• 45:48
  or insight into your communications, right And you
• 45:51
  fear the the potential, you know, backlash that might happen
• 45:57
  because of a private dialogue that you're having between you
• 46:00
  and your spouse, right? What are you going to do?
• 46:03
  You're going to self censor? What is this the effing USSR?
• 46:07
  That's crazy, That's nuts. That's that's and and this is
• 46:11
  where it's heading if. You think?
• 46:14
  They weren't even OK with you speaking freely.
• 46:17
  Look at what was released during the Twitter files.
• 46:19
  It was disgraceful. Even in the United States of
• 46:22
  America with the First Amendment protections, you still had the
• 46:26
  government colluding with private companies to censor the
• 46:29
  free speech of Americans. Disgusting.
• 46:32
  This is not getting as much attention.
• 46:35
  Why is it not getting as much attention?
• 46:37
  Because most people just don't care.
• 46:39
  Most people don't care, but I'm telling you this is important
• 46:43
  and I'm telling you the precedent that they're trying to
• 46:44
  set. They're trying to demonize and
• 46:48
  criminalize privacy. And I would make the argument
• 46:53
  right, is that this software was not designed for criminals.
• 46:58
  It was designed for the public to be used for it, for the
• 47:01
  public, for it to for the public to use it.
• 47:04
  Now, does that mean that criminals didn't use the
• 47:06
  software? Of course they did.
• 47:07
  Criminals use a a variety of different tools.
• 47:11
  Criminals use cars, right? Criminals use firearms.
• 47:15
  They they use those things. Does that mean that?
• 47:17
  They use dollars. Too, they use dollars.
• 47:19
  Thank you Opti. That was a very astute
• 47:22
  observation. Does that mean that car
• 47:24
  manufacturers and gun manufacturers are responsible
• 47:27
  for what criminals do with their products and their things that
• 47:30
  they make no right. So the the case the government
• 47:35
  tried to make here was basically along the lines of you developed
• 47:40
  open source software that enabled money laundering, and
• 47:46
  you were an unlicensed money transmitter.
• 47:49
  You want to know why Satoshi disappeared?
• 47:53
  You want to know why Satoshi is anonymous?
• 47:56
  If Satoshi wasn't anonymous, he would be in jail today.
• 48:00
  I'm sticking by my guns when I say that that's why he
• 48:03
  disappeared. That's why he's anonymous,
• 48:06
  that's why Bitcoin is so powerful, because it's this
• 48:08
  decentralized movement that isn't controlled by every by
• 48:12
  anyone. Therefore government can't go
• 48:16
  after anyone. The only way for the for for the
• 48:20
  government to shut down Bitcoin and it in its entirety is if
• 48:25
  they shut the all of the Internet down simultaneously all
• 48:30
  at once and kept it off. That's not going to happen.
• 48:34
  So Bitcoin is here to stay. Governments are realizing that.
• 48:38
  Banks are realizing that they went through, you know, the 55
• 48:43
  phases of the Nile or five phases of grief or whatever it's
• 48:46
  called. But we're losing.
• 48:50
  We're losing the eye on the ball, guys, like at the end of
• 48:52
  the day. And I'm so glad we had Bitcoin
• 48:54
  bent on yesterday. And guys, go check out that
• 48:58
  episode 'cause it was gnarly. And we did an unfiltered version
• 49:01
  just for Rumble. It was fantastic and we're going
• 49:06
  to continue doing those on a monthly basis.
• 49:08
  And that's where we're going to, you know, talk, go more in depth
• 49:12
  in terms of what's at really at stake here.
• 49:15
  But look, I know that Wall Street has come.
• 49:18
  I know that it's never been easier to get exposure to
• 49:21
  Bitcoin using your traditional financial applications or
• 49:26
  products. Right now, Charles Schwab is
• 49:28
  going to be announcing launching next year that you're going to
• 49:31
  be able to buy Bitcoin through Charles Schwab.
• 49:33
  Like it's never been easier to buy, exposure to Bitcoin never
• 49:37
  been easier. But remember the mission here,
• 49:41
  What is the mission? The mission is separation of
• 49:46
  money and state. And you do that by individuals
• 49:48
  reclaiming back their financial sovereignty by buying Bitcoin
• 49:51
  and putting into self custody. I was making the case when this
• 49:56
  Tornado Cash stuff started happening.
• 49:58
  Maybe I'll join the two stories. Actually, when the tornado case
• 50:03
  started happening, Opti and I were covering it.
• 50:06
  And we were telling you guys back then that what they're
• 50:10
  doing is they're setting a precedent because no one heard
• 50:14
  of Tornado Cash. No one cared about Tornado Cash.
• 50:17
  As soon as the Tornado Cash guys got indicted, Coin Center sued,
• 50:25
  basically said, look, that's illegal.
• 50:27
  That's again that's unconstitutional.
• 50:29
  They lost that case when it within a month, they arrested
• 50:34
  the Samurai wallet developers. And the precedent they're trying
• 50:37
  to set is that the US government can sanction open source
• 50:44
  software, and the US government can go after open source
• 50:49
  software developers. If.
• 50:52
  The type of software they're developing.
• 50:57
  And again, what what did he, what did he, what, what is the
• 51:00
  software he developed? He developed privacy software,
• 51:06
  right? He developed privacy software.
• 51:08
  You're entitled to privacy as an American.
• 51:10
  It's it's, it's the, it's the 5th amendment.
• 51:12
  Like, no unreasonable surge and seizures, of course, have been
• 51:15
  thrown out the window. But regardless, anyways, I'm
• 51:18
  going to weave it back in to this.
• 51:20
  It all culminated yesterday when President Trump at a press
• 51:24
  conference in the Oval Office, was asked specifically about the
• 51:30
  Samurai wallet developers and whether he was going to pardon
• 51:34
  them. This is what he said.
• 51:37
  Mr. President, this week, a man named Keoni Rodriguez is going
• 51:41
  to federal prison for creating crypto privacy software.
• 51:44
  The case was started under the Biden administration, but your
• 51:48
  DOGDOJ kept it going and secured the conviction.
• 51:51
  A lot of people in crypto are saying that this man should be
• 51:54
  pardoned. Are you familiar with the case
• 51:56
  at all or would you be interested?
• 51:57
  I've heard about it. I'll look at it.
• 51:59
  Why you think you should be pardoned?
• 52:01
  Sounds like it sounds like based on your question, Rodriguez.
• 52:05
  We'll look at that, Pam. OK, let's take a look at it.
• 52:08
  You know, you'll have to tell me.
• 52:09
  I don't know anything about it, but we'll take a look.
• 52:14
  President Trump, you owe it to the Bitcoin community to pardon
• 52:21
  the Samurai Wall develop developers, pardon the Tornado
• 52:24
  Cash developers. I understand that these cases
• 52:28
  started under the Biden DOJ, but this is now your DOJ.
• 52:35
  President Trump, please pardon the Samurai Wall developers.
• 52:39
  They did nothing wrong. And it's setting a very, very
• 52:42
  dangerous precedent heading into the future where software
• 52:47
  developers could be at fear for their freedom, for developing
• 52:54
  privacy enabling tools and freedom tech, right?
• 52:57
  So please take a look at that. I'll forgive you for number,
• 53:01
  not. No, don't just look at it.
• 53:03
  Let's get this. Let's get this done.
• 53:04
  I'll. Forgive you for number not going
• 53:06
  up in 2025, but please part in the Samurai wallet developers
• 53:13
  and shout out to the person who asked that question.
• 53:16
  Obviously pro Bitcoin person. Yeah, shout out to the
• 53:18
  journalist. That was a Chad move.
• 53:21
  Yeah, that was that was a Chad move, getting in there,
• 53:23
  positioning yourself and asking that question.
• 53:25
  So shout out. That was awesome.
• 53:27
  Shout out to you, bro. Yeah.
• 53:29
  We, we, we should find out who it is.
• 53:31
  But good, good stuff. But Opti and guys, we were
• 53:35
  supposed to have, we were supposed to have one of the
• 53:37
  developers on today's show. We no, we were supposed to have
• 53:40
  key on on today. We were supposed to have him on
• 53:42
  today. Unfortunately he cancelled
• 53:44
  understanding, understandingly so with everything going on of
• 53:48
  course. But Opti, I want to get your
• 53:50
  take brother like. Yeah, well, first of all, like
• 53:53
  Nico just said, I I was really hoping that we had key on on
• 53:59
  today and we could play this clip and kind of get his his
• 54:02
  reaction to it. I I thought that would have been
• 54:04
  just a, you know, a beautiful piece of media for everyone.
• 54:07
  But hey, wasn't in the cards for us.
• 54:09
  It is what it is. On the second point, like we
• 54:11
  said, shout out to that journalist.
• 54:14
  You know, we were talking about this a while ago when, you know,
• 54:17
  Frey Korva got the White House press secretary lanyard or
• 54:22
  whatever it was where he's in there creds, the creds exactly
• 54:26
  the the White House journalist creds.
• 54:29
  This is this is what we love to see.
• 54:31
  Obviously now part of me is kind of agreeing with the chat.
• 54:38
  He they're they're basically saying they're not they're he's
• 54:40
  not going to do anything. They'll look into it.
• 54:42
  Obviously I want to see more than just looking into it.
• 54:45
  Yes, I I get it. That would be bad.
• 54:48
  I get it, But I mean look, we do have some precedent here that he
• 54:52
  did pardon Arthur Hayes CZ let's get let's get the and Ross,
• 54:58
  let's get the samurai wallet guys.
• 55:00
  So I look, I will, I will be. You know what, CZ and neutrally
• 55:07
  optimistic. You know what, CZ and Arthur
• 55:09
  Hayes. Let's actually, let's actually
• 55:12
  release a poll. Let's ask the audience.
• 55:15
  Do you think President Trump will?
• 55:16
  Pardon. OK, Ron says it was reported
• 55:19
  from decrypt. Shouts out the decrypt then.
• 55:21
  So let's release a poll like I. Asked the chat.
• 55:23
  OK, let's see chat, we're doing this.
• 55:28
  I mean, I'll tell you what, guys, I'm not exactly.
• 55:33
  We'll keep fighting and we'll keep raising awareness to this.
• 55:38
  That just wasn't that answer. Wasn't that?
• 55:41
  Yeah. It wasn't that strong.
• 55:43
  I I. I, I feel like if I, I
• 55:45
  understand, I, I don't know, again, when you're, when you're
• 55:48
  in those rooms, you, you, you think you can ask these types of
• 55:51
  questions, but once you're in front of these like, it's a
• 55:55
  totally different ball game. You know, there's things that if
• 55:59
  you say you're never getting in those rooms again.
• 56:02
  So I I understand why he didn't press when he when he asked.
• 56:06
  Like, yeah, yeah. Like do you believe people think
• 56:09
  people think they should? Yeah.
• 56:11
  Like, that was a great answer by him under pressure.
• 56:14
  But yeah, no free the free the samurai guys.
• 56:19
  Like it's, it's kind of BS to be honest with you.
• 56:23
  Someone asked in the Someone said in the chat the reporter
• 56:26
  who asked President Trump yesterday about potentially
• 56:28
  pardoning Samurai Waldo versus was Sander Lutz, a White House
• 56:31
  reporter for Decrypt. Very cool, very cool.
• 56:34
  Yeah, that's good. Shout out Sander did a great job
• 56:37
  there anyways. Kind of some balls, not going to
• 56:40
  lie. Kind of some balls.
• 56:43
  Let's go. And had some balls, right?
• 56:44
  For sure. Absolutely.
• 56:46
  Some cojones. Anyways, guys, it's going to be
• 56:49
  a great show. We still have a lot to cover.
• 56:51
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  Not your keys, not your cheese. All right, everybody, let's get
• 1:00:04
  into today's story. Here we go here we go.
• 1:00:09
  Here we go. Check out this post by Eleanor.
• 1:00:16
  Eleanor has done fantastic job just covering the industry as a
• 1:00:20
  whole, chooses Fox business. Before.
• 1:00:23
  Earlier she was focusing solely on the crypto industry, the
• 1:00:27
  Bitcoin industry. And check out this new report,
• 1:00:32
  this new post, a new statement. A Senate Banking Committee
• 1:00:35
  spokesperson confirmed my reporting from this morning that
• 1:00:40
  banking GOP will not hold a market structure markup this
• 1:00:43
  year. Chairman Scott and the Senate
• 1:00:45
  Banking Committee have made strong progress with Democratic
• 1:00:49
  counterparts on bipartisan digital asset market structure
• 1:00:53
  legislation. From the outset, Chairman Scott
• 1:00:56
  has been clear that this effort should be bipartisan.
• 1:00:59
  I completely agree. He has consistently and
• 1:01:02
  patiently engaged in good faith discussions to produce a strong
• 1:01:05
  bipartisan product that provides clarity for the digital assets
• 1:01:10
  industry and also makes America the crypto capital of the world.
• 1:01:14
  The Committee is continuing to negotiate and looks forward to a
• 1:01:18
  markup in early 2026. So I, I just.
• 1:01:22
  But it's. What I'm interpreting from this
• 1:01:24
  is that it doesn't seem like there's gonna be any more.
• 1:01:27
  Read the official note right there.
• 1:01:28
  Yeah, we've. OK, so the, this is the official
• 1:01:31
  note. We've reached the final
• 1:01:33
  legislative week of 2025, which is expected to be a short one as
• 1:01:37
  House and Senate members head home for the holidays, some as
• 1:01:40
  early as Wednesday. Dude, I, I gotta be a senator,
• 1:01:43
  bro. Like they they got two weeks
• 1:01:45
  off. Dude paid.
• 1:01:47
  Yeah, me too. Like God damn dude.
• 1:01:51
  I actually I am getting a week off tomorrow next week.
• 1:01:54
  So I'm a senator bro, you guys. Are going to have to stick with
• 1:01:59
  Nico. Nico the.
• 1:02:00
  Bear dude, our show is going to be completely tarnished.
• 1:02:02
  By next week, Nico the bear and Sophie for for about a.
• 1:02:06
  No, no, we need to get Luke on. We got to get Luke on one time.
• 1:02:08
  Anyway, let's read this. We'll we'll talk about this
• 1:02:10
  later. This means the Senate Banking
• 1:02:12
  Committee has run out of time to mark up market structure
• 1:02:16
  legislation this year, and a hearing will now be pushed into
• 1:02:19
  the new year. As for the text itself industry,
• 1:02:22
  we'll be waiting to see whether the committee releases the
• 1:02:25
  latest bipartisan version, a product it's been working on for
• 1:02:29
  the better part of the last two months before heading home for
• 1:02:32
  the break. The Senate Agriculture Committee
• 1:02:35
  has not yet scheduled the markup for its own text, suggesting it
• 1:02:38
  will defer its hearing until next year, further extending a
• 1:02:41
  process that Senate leadership has originally hoped to complete
• 1:02:45
  by the end of. This year, OK do.
• 1:02:47
  You want me to tell you guys my opinion?
• 1:02:50
  Yeah, let's get This is why this is the only reason why you're
• 1:02:52
  here. Nico on politics.
• 1:02:54
  What's the take? This is my, this is my take, all
• 1:02:59
  right? I think, I think that they're
• 1:03:08
  trying to wait Trump out. That's what it is.
• 1:03:12
  It's like very black and white, right?
• 1:03:16
  He started strong, had Elon in there kind of cleaning house,
• 1:03:20
  exposing all the government waste and and spending and all
• 1:03:24
  that stuff. Look at what the media did, the
• 1:03:30
  amount of pressure, like, despite finding like all this
• 1:03:34
  inefficiencies, like, like they basically got him out his stock,
• 1:03:41
  like took a hit. Look at the hit piece on the AI
• 1:03:45
  and crypto czar David Sachs, right?
• 1:03:47
  That was released by The New York Times a couple couple weeks
• 1:03:51
  ago. And he had to hire like lawyers
• 1:03:54
  to like litigate it. And look at the position of the
• 1:03:59
  Federal Reserve all year, right? The future of central banking is
• 1:04:05
  central bank digital currencies. The Democratic Party feels very
• 1:04:09
  comfortable with central bank digital currencies.
• 1:04:12
  The GOP has made it very clear that specifically the the MAGA
• 1:04:17
  GOP has made it very clear that it doesn't like central bank
• 1:04:22
  digital currencies at all. So what I think is happening is
• 1:04:28
  they're just trying to wait Trump out.
• 1:04:30
  That's what I think is happening because next year is a midterm
• 1:04:34
  year. And I think like if you look at
• 1:04:38
  the odds, like the betting odds right now, it's highly probable
• 1:04:42
  as things stand that the Republicans lose the House.
• 1:04:48
  And if they lose the House, like forget about any crypto
• 1:04:52
  legislation, Are they going to lose the House by like a
• 1:04:55
  significant majority? I don't think so.
• 1:04:59
  But do I believe they're we're going to start to see
• 1:05:01
  impeachments again, 100 million percent, 100%.
• 1:05:06
  So like what Trump was able to do this year, which was the big
• 1:05:11
  beautiful bill and the genius act, which I think was a step in
• 1:05:17
  the right direction, but that's more for stable coins than
• 1:05:20
  anything else was great. But honestly, I think I wanted a
• 1:05:26
  little bit more. I I love the executive orders.
• 1:05:31
  Supposedly operation choke point 2.0 ended, but like I'm seeing
• 1:05:35
  the samurai wallet guys get the arrested.
• 1:05:37
  So like and and persecuted, so like, you know, it's like
• 1:05:44
  Operation Choke .2 point O kind of ended.
• 1:05:46
  And then there was the case that Caitlin Long has been making and
• 1:05:50
  Senator Lummus have been making that that they haven't ended at
• 1:05:55
  all. And there's this article that
• 1:05:57
  was released by the rage and it kind of goes into further
• 1:06:03
  detail. And the name of the article is
• 1:06:07
  this is not how the 1st Amendment works.
• 1:06:09
  Storm Defense tells the SDN why. And here's Lola Elites kind of
• 1:06:15
  breaking down the significance of the article.
• 1:06:19
  Roman Storm's case is going to have disastrous implications for
• 1:06:22
  anyone developing free software if this First Amendment fight is
• 1:06:25
  lost. That's what I've been telling
• 1:06:27
  you the entire show. Man I really wish Samurai
• 1:06:30
  Wallach, it would have been a great show.
• 1:06:33
  Yeah, it would have been a banger.
• 1:06:34
  Anyways, continues to say North Korea uses Linux for its nuclear
• 1:06:43
  weapons program. Linus Torvos goes to jail.
• 1:06:48
  Iran's IRGC are using Signal Goodbye.
• 1:06:52
  Basically she's making the case that like look like North Korea
• 1:06:56
  uses Linux for nuclear weapons program.
• 1:06:58
  OK, the the the the developer of Linux.
• 1:07:01
  You, you you've facilitated nuclear weapon development in
• 1:07:06
  North Korea. Like, you know, some person in
• 1:07:09
  Iran uses signal. OK, the developer of signal,
• 1:07:12
  you're in trouble. This is what we've been talking
• 1:07:14
  about, right? This is what we've been.
• 1:07:16
  This is why I keep telling you This is why Satoshi disappeared,
• 1:07:19
  right? Like, it is extremely scary that
• 1:07:23
  this is happening because you guys have to understand they did
• 1:07:26
  not develop this software for criminals to use it.
• 1:07:32
  They developed this software for privacy.
• 1:07:37
  They developed this software for privacy.
• 1:07:40
  But what the implications are is basically like, look, if you're
• 1:07:46
  a software developer and even though you didn't have the
• 1:07:50
  intent of of people using your software maliciously, you are
• 1:07:55
  still responsible if people use your software maliciously.
• 1:08:00
  And guess what? People are going to start doing
• 1:08:02
  what they're going to start self censoring out of self
• 1:08:07
  preservation. So Lola Elites is 100% right
• 1:08:12
  here and she describes him much better than I can than I that I
• 1:08:15
  did, but it's the same message. The question, the question this
• 1:08:19
  comes down to is whether people should be held criminally liable
• 1:08:22
  for what they write, and whether they should be a difference
• 1:08:25
  between writing words that can instruct a computer, such as
• 1:08:28
  code, and words that are purely expressive, such as stating an
• 1:08:32
  opinion. According to the government, the
• 1:08:35
  distinction is justified. But if we can make the
• 1:08:38
  distinction for code, then what about text that instructs a
• 1:08:41
  person, like a technical manual, a recipe, or a musical
• 1:08:45
  composition? Should I be held criminally only
• 1:08:48
  liable for composing a song that criticizes the government when
• 1:08:51
  it is played by a group of agitators?
• 1:08:54
  the US the United States is at the brink of undoing 30 years of
• 1:08:59
  legal precedent that has protected developers from
• 1:09:02
  government overreach. Whether you think cryptocurrency
• 1:09:05
  is dumb or not should be wholly irrelevant to you.
• 1:09:08
  Supporting Roman Storm code is speech, and no one should be
• 1:09:12
  held accountable for what others do with the software that you
• 1:09:15
  write. Which again, this is what I've
• 1:09:17
  been saying. Now, does this surprise me?
• 1:09:19
  It does absolutely not surprise me whatsoever, and I haven't
• 1:09:23
  read these passages in a long time.
• 1:09:25
  But I'm going to refer to the book The Sovereign Individual
• 1:09:29
  that predicted all of this and why this is happening.
• 1:09:34
  New technologies will allow the holders of wealth to bypass the
• 1:09:36
  national monopolies that have issued and regulated money in
• 1:09:39
  the modern period. Their importance for controlling
• 1:09:42
  the world's wealth will be transcended by mathematical
• 1:09:44
  algorithms that have no physical existence.
• 1:09:47
  In the new Millennium. Cyber money controlled by
• 1:09:49
  private markets will supersede Fiat money issued by governments
• 1:09:53
  lacking their accustomed scope to inflate.
• 1:09:56
  Governments, even in traditionally cut civil
• 1:09:58
  countries, will term nasty. Businesses that offer services
• 1:10:02
  that facilitate the realization of autonomy by individuals will
• 1:10:05
  be subject to infiltration, sabotage, and disruption.
• 1:10:08
  Arbitrary forfeiture of property, already commonplace in
• 1:10:10
  the United States where it occurs 5000 times a week, will
• 1:10:13
  become even more pervasive. Governments will violate human
• 1:10:16
  rights, censor the free flow of information, sabotage useful
• 1:10:19
  technologies and worse. Ladies and gentlemen, if you
• 1:10:25
  want to know why this is happening, read the book The
• 1:10:28
  Sovereign Individual originally published in 1999.
• 1:10:33
  And what it comes down to is what Bitcoin been was dropping
• 1:10:37
  bars on yesterday. Guys, it comes down to money.
• 1:10:41
  That's all it comes down to. They're losing their control
• 1:10:44
  over money, right? And if you have, This is why
• 1:10:50
  they're trying to get rid of cash.
• 1:10:51
  It's the same thing, right? And if you have a money that
• 1:10:56
  steals from you, that now has competition from a deflationary
• 1:11:01
  money that doesn't steal from you.
• 1:11:03
  In fact, it increases your wealth over time.
• 1:11:05
  Not in 2025. Apparently 2025 was the year of
• 1:11:16
  gold and the S&P 500 baby. But point being is they're
• 1:11:30
  losing their control, money. They need coercion for this to
• 1:11:35
  function properly. It's a system built on coercion.
• 1:11:39
  It's a system built on theft. And now it has a competing
• 1:11:43
  system, and they're going to use everything in their power in
• 1:11:49
  their arsenal in order to sabotage the competing system.
• 1:11:53
  Now, do I think they'll win? No.
• 1:11:55
  Do I think it's going to be a bumpy ride?
• 1:11:57
  Yes. Do I think there's going to be
• 1:11:59
  martyrs? 100%.
• 1:12:01
  There's already been plenty of martyrs.
• 1:12:04
  CZ getting arrested, Arthur Hayes getting arrested, Ross
• 1:12:07
  Albert getting arrested, the Samurai Wallet developers
• 1:12:11
  getting arrested, The Tornado Cash developers getting
• 1:12:14
  arrested. 100 percent, 100%. Ladies and gentlemen, the
• 1:12:19
  Internet has fundamentally changed the game.
• 1:12:22
  The book, the sovereign individual, call it information,
• 1:12:24
  information technologies. I think it's it's it's
• 1:12:27
  fundamentally change the game. It's disintermediated the whole
• 1:12:31
  situation so that now you can get information directly from
• 1:12:35
  the source. You don't need to go through a
• 1:12:37
  handful of gatekeepers and you don't need to use a custodian to
• 1:12:43
  use money. And their whole system of
• 1:12:45
  control was built on the fact that they always thought there
• 1:12:48
  was going to be a custodian. They were.
• 1:12:51
  They always thought there was going to be a middleman.
• 1:12:53
  The enforcement happens through the middleman.
• 1:12:56
  But what happens when you have peer-to-peer money, right?
• 1:13:00
  It changes the conversation, changes the discussion, moves
• 1:13:03
  the balance of power, and that's what's happening.
• 1:13:06
  So don't lose your eye on the ball.
• 1:13:08
  This has nothing to do with money laundering or money
• 1:13:12
  transmitting. This has to do with making an
• 1:13:15
  example of Bitcoin of of open source developers and sending a
• 1:13:21
  message across the world, just like they did with Ross.
• 1:13:26
  And it's basically telling the world, listen, if you developed
• 1:13:30
  private privacy enabling technologies, we will go after
• 1:13:34
  you even though you're not breaking the law.
• 1:13:38
  That's what they're making the case for.
• 1:13:39
  That's what they're saying. Damn, it would have been a
• 1:13:43
  fantastic show because we're dropping bars today.
• 1:13:49
  Anyway, before we move on to the next segment, I do want to give
• 1:13:52
  away some stats. We haven't given away some stats
• 1:13:54
  in a while, guys. This is the Bitcoin Wishing Well
• 1:13:58
  portal. Every time you buy Bitcoin on
• 1:14:01
  Bitcoin Well, you earn something called Bitcoin Well points.
• 1:14:04
  You could use those points to a variety of different prizes like
• 1:14:07
  a Bitcoin nutrition hoodie, a bid ax, a leather mint wallet, a
• 1:14:12
  well stamped seed plate, and if you earn 69,000,000 points,
• 1:14:17
  you'll get an orange Cybertruck. But you could also use the
• 1:14:21
  points towards the Bitcoin wishing well contest, which are
• 1:14:24
  going to be playing live for you guys right now, or toss a coin
• 1:14:27
  into the wishing well. Bam Bing bam boom.
• 1:14:30
  Get your lightning wallets ready.
• 1:14:31
  First person to scan the QR code has one 573 sats.
• 1:14:37
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• 1:14:41
  tosses into the wishing well absolutely free and every single
• 1:14:45
  toss you have an opportunity to win up to 1,000,000 sats.
• 1:14:49
  It's less than $1000 these days. It's like 800, seven, $870, but
• 1:14:54
  still it's grand prize for what? For just signing up.
• 1:14:57
  It's fantastic. Head over to
• 1:14:59
  bitcoinwell.com/simply today. All right, everybody, let's move
• 1:15:04
  on to the culture segment. We have tons to cover.
• 1:15:06
  We're going to be right back in just a bit.
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  freedom. OK, here we go.
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  It's official. Super.
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  Official. Yeah, you can hit some horns.
• 1:17:13
  Super, super. Don't do it again.
• 1:17:16
  That's cool. Motherfucking boy.
• 1:17:20
  OK, all right, enough of that, enough of that.
• 1:17:23
  So he doesn't even know how to use it lol.
• 1:17:25
  OK, first bit of news coming out of the Fed.
• 1:17:27
  Obviously you guys don't really care about what's going on with
• 1:17:30
  the Fed. I would argue rightfully so.
• 1:17:33
  But again, most people that actually have capital, not us
• 1:17:37
  peasants that just, you know, buy nickels in front of a
• 1:17:40
  steamroller stacking sets do. First bit of news, we had
• 1:17:45
  already told you the Fed admitted they're going to be
• 1:17:48
  turning on the money printer for four billion, $40 billion.
• 1:17:51
  Excuse me? Yeah.
• 1:17:53
  Yeah, a couple of weeks ago, well, actually on the Fed news
• 1:17:56
  day when they announced interest.
• 1:17:58
  We should have a money printer sound board sound.
• 1:18:00
  I should. I'll put a, a big, big, big baby
• 1:18:04
  DRAM, my money printer go All right.
• 1:18:07
  Anyways, mute you. So yeah, they admitted they're
• 1:18:11
  going to print or rather inject $40 billion over there.
• 1:18:17
  Well, really by 40 billion over the next 30 days.
• 1:18:20
  Well, now another form of money printing is taking place. the
• 1:18:25
  Fed injected 5.2 billion into the US banking system via
• 1:18:29
  overnight repos. This is the 6th largest
• 1:18:32
  liquidity injection since 2020. It surpasses liquidity levels
• 1:18:37
  seen at the peakofthe.com bubble and signals tight short term
• 1:18:41
  funding stress in money markets, which is what Nikko said
• 1:18:45
  earlier. They have rebranded QE to a more
• 1:18:49
  kind of like precise liquidity injection.
• 1:18:52
  And there's actually a good, good kind of tweet here by I'm
• 1:18:56
  not even calling the X Bretton Woods goes 2008 bailouts, 2020
• 1:19:00
  QE, 2025 liquidity injections. Different spelling, same
• 1:19:04
  printer. Guys, I, I told you this.
• 1:19:07
  What last week was that last Friday?
• 1:19:09
  Wait, no, was it Wednesday? Maybe it was Wednesday.
• 1:19:13
  Forgive me for not remembering the dates, but they have
• 1:19:16
  basically admitted without admitting that they're going to
• 1:19:20
  do QE. They admitted Q TS ending and
• 1:19:23
  then they're doing this like not QEQE thing and now we're getting
• 1:19:28
  this targeted liquidity injections into the banking
• 1:19:31
  system. It's all basically the same
• 1:19:34
  thing guys. It's just the money printer is
• 1:19:37
  finally it's on like it it was warming up last week.
• 1:19:40
  It is on. They're injecting money into the
• 1:19:44
  economy right now. It is specific.
• 1:19:47
  They're doing more like AI think they they called it like a
• 1:19:50
  surgical liquidity injection right now.
• 1:19:53
  Targeted Q yeah, targeted Q. So anyways, you know, putting
• 1:19:59
  all the terms aside. As everyone that knows anything,
• 1:20:03
  it's QE by any other name the the money printers is coming
• 1:20:06
  back on. So that's where we are on that
• 1:20:09
  front. Another point that is very
• 1:20:11
  interesting. Again, we've been seeing a lot
• 1:20:15
  of pressure coming from the Trump administration to the Fed.
• 1:20:18
  Well, last week it looked like Kevin.
• 1:20:22
  I believe it was Kevin Hassett. His name Kevin.
• 1:20:25
  I believe it was Kevin Hassett. I know his last name is Hassett.
• 1:20:27
  He was the ex Coinbase advisor. He was the one leading the
• 1:20:31
  charge going into essentially being the next Fed chair choice
• 1:20:36
  by Trump. He's been extremely bullish, not
• 1:20:40
  just on necessarily Bitcoin, of course he's a Coinbase, ex
• 1:20:43
  Coinbase advisor, but he's like, yo, we need to cut interest
• 1:20:46
  rates by a whole percent. He was the only one to dissent
• 1:20:49
  on the Fed rate cuts to go actually further than what
• 1:20:53
  everyone was saying. There was other dissension.
• 1:20:55
  People were saying like let we don't have enough data to cut
• 1:20:58
  rates. Others were like 25 bits.
• 1:20:59
  He's like, let's. Go, let's go a whole.
• 1:21:02
  Percent, which was perfectly aligned with what Trump wants.
• 1:21:05
  Well, this week we're starting to see a little, little
• 1:21:08
  different stuff happen. The betting odds are changing
• 1:21:11
  right now based on what the higher ups are saying.
• 1:21:15
  And I saw a kind of a breakdown of this.
• 1:21:17
  People were saying that some of the the higher a board members,
• 1:21:21
  some some of the higher ups there were saying that hassets
• 1:21:25
  kind of too close to Trump and they can't let that happen,
• 1:21:28
  which is really going into the greater thing that Nico was
• 1:21:30
  talking about right now where a lot of people are fighting
• 1:21:33
  Trump. Or you can argue maybe it it is
• 1:21:35
  all key fob. But anyways, the new the new
• 1:21:39
  kind of leading indicator right here, the new person that seems
• 1:21:42
  to be rising up is this guy Kevin Walsh.
• 1:21:45
  He is now officially the favorite to become the next fed
• 1:21:47
  chair at a 48% chance on polymarket.
• 1:21:51
  And as you can see, Kevin Hassett here is the one I
• 1:21:55
  believe I'm kind of colorblind, but he is losing now.
• 1:21:59
  And apparently it's because they got pushed back from high level
• 1:22:02
  people close to Trump. So it looks, it looks like
• 1:22:05
  there's a race here. But both of them have been for
• 1:22:09
  less or better, you know, terms pretty favorable towards
• 1:22:13
  Bitcoin, which is obviously different than what we've heard
• 1:22:16
  from Jerome Powell, Kevin Hassett, of course, ex Coinbase
• 1:22:20
  advisor. You, you got to guess that he
• 1:22:22
  understands this industry and Kevin Wash now that he is kind
• 1:22:26
  of the the new leading guy. Let me see.
• 1:22:29
  Let me let me know guys, if you guys hear this, 'cause it is a
• 1:22:32
  little interesting clip, but it all leads to, you know, one
• 1:22:37
  greater trend here of what we think is going to happen if
• 1:22:41
  Trump or rather whoever the next Fed chair is going to be.
• 1:22:44
  So I'm going to play this. Let me know if you guys hear.
• 1:22:46
  It isn't it Charlie Munger. This is a Two or three years
• 1:22:48
  before he died, Charlie Munger attacked Bitcoin.
• 1:22:50
  He called it evil in part because it would begin to
• 1:22:54
  undermine the Fed's ability to manage the economy.
• 1:22:57
  Or it could provide market discipline.
• 1:22:59
  Or it could tell the world that things need to be fixed.
• 1:23:03
  Bitcoin does not make you nervous.
• 1:23:05
  Bitcoin does not make me nervous.
• 1:23:07
  I can harken back to a a dinner I had here in 2011 with a
• 1:23:14
  someone who is another guest on your show.
• 1:23:16
  I won't say his name, OK? I just did.
• 1:23:20
  Marc Andreessen, who showed me the white paper That was the
• 1:23:25
  original white paper. I wish I had understood as
• 1:23:27
  clearly as he did how transformative Bitcoin in this
• 1:23:31
  new technology would be. Bitcoin doesn't trouble me.
• 1:23:35
  I think of it as an important asset that can help inform
• 1:23:39
  policy makers when they're doing things right and wrong.
• 1:23:43
  It is not a substitute to the dollar.
• 1:23:45
  I think it can often be a very good policeman for policy.
• 1:23:49
  Honestly, interesting take coming from the next potential
• 1:23:53
  fed chair. And this all goes to what I
• 1:23:57
  think is going on. Again, I'm not the first one to
• 1:23:59
  say this, but it it's been dubbed the Mona Lago accords,
• 1:24:03
  which is they're going to they're going to devalue the
• 1:24:06
  dollar, AKA more liquidity into the system.
• 1:24:08
  They want to lower interest rates and then of course, you
• 1:24:11
  know, unleash stable coins throughout that process, which
• 1:24:14
  inevitably brings Bitcoin through to the forefront here.
• 1:24:18
  So look, we'd obviously don't know what's going to happen.
• 1:24:21
  I'm sure more shenanigans will play out.
• 1:24:24
  But from my perspective, this is kind of what what is happening
• 1:24:27
  in, in the Fed culture. You know, maybe I need to
• 1:24:30
  rebrand this too. Not just the daily culture, it's
• 1:24:32
  the Fed culture here. But hey, look, someone I, I, I
• 1:24:36
  forget who it was on, on Rumble. They said it earlier in the
• 1:24:39
  show. They're like, you can't be a
• 1:24:41
  real bitcoiner and be at the head of the Fed.
• 1:24:43
  And I, I kind of totally agree with that.
• 1:24:46
  But we are starting to see a a kind of different tune change
• 1:24:50
  from the next potential Fed chairs.
• 1:24:54
  It sounds like they're not going to be fighting this.
• 1:24:57
  It sounds like they understand that Bitcoin is kind of the
• 1:25:00
  pressure valve to Fiat liquidity.
• 1:25:02
  It sounds like they're going to turn the money printer on lower
• 1:25:05
  interest rates. They want the free money to come
• 1:25:07
  back on, which is all kind of part of my more bullish takes of
• 1:25:12
  what's going on and going to happen next year.
• 1:25:14
  But anyways, Nico, the the the fight for the Fed here starting
• 1:25:19
  to get kind of interesting and it is between people that are
• 1:25:22
  favorable towards Bitcoin. So tentatively bullish.
• 1:25:26
  I know it's a Fed guy, but hey, we'll see.
• 1:25:30
  We'll see what happens. They are printing Ious.
• 1:25:32
  Yes, this is what they're doing. I mean my take on all.
• 1:25:40
  This maybe you start with the money printer is on.
• 1:25:44
  Dude, your four year, your four year thesis is over.
• 1:25:46
  The money printer is back. No, so last, so last time they
• 1:25:52
  ended QT and and they started it's not QE anymore, but it's
• 1:25:57
  it's targeted surgical QE. Yeah, surgical, surgical,
• 1:26:00
  surgical liquidity you increase. There we go.
• 1:26:05
  It's surgical QE. Surgical.
• 1:26:07
  My name is Jerome Powell. Surgical QE.
• 1:26:15
  The last time this happened, Bitcoin's price didn't bounce
• 1:26:18
  back immediately. It took it took time.
• 1:26:20
  Oh yeah, it it won't be immediate it so.
• 1:26:22
  It took time. I see where you're going.
• 1:26:26
  It took time. Look like my base case is my,
• 1:26:30
  my, my, my base case is my base case.
• 1:26:33
  Is that my, my base case is this like I think that, and I could
• 1:26:38
  be totally wrong here, like, but my base case is like, I don't
• 1:26:42
  think we'll have a crazy. I don't think we'll have a
• 1:26:46
  crazy. I don't think we'll have a crazy
• 1:26:51
  like crazy, you know, 90% correction, because for a 90%
• 1:26:58
  correction to occur, you need, you need to have like a crazy
• 1:27:01
  euphoria blow off phase and that never happened.
• 1:27:04
  So I, I just don't see that happening.
• 1:27:08
  But I do think that Q1 and Q2 of next year could potentially be
• 1:27:13
  bearish with the opium for Opti that I think Q3 and Q4 of 2026
• 1:27:21
  might actually Bitcoin might actually start crawling back
• 1:27:25
  back up again. Like I, I think that if, if this
• 1:27:28
  bear market does happen like historically bear markets last
• 1:27:32
  exactly a year. So the good news is that we've
• 1:27:34
  already basically gone through two we've.
• 1:27:38
  Already been in a bear? So it's basically 10 months to
• 1:27:41
  go. But I, I think, I, I think it's
• 1:27:45
  going to be much shorter than that.
• 1:27:46
  I think it's going to be 6 months, 667 months.
• 1:27:49
  I think by mid, mid time next year.
• 1:27:51
  What we, we, we, we probably would have bought, we probably
• 1:27:54
  bought them like we had a crazy correction guys.
• 1:27:57
  Like think about how far we've dropped already.
• 1:27:59
  We went from 1:26 to $80,000 in a relatively short amount of
• 1:28:05
  time. That's pretty effing wild,
• 1:28:08
  right? So especially with the size of
• 1:28:13
  the asset, right? So I, I just think that this
• 1:28:17
  bear market is different. And then I hope I'm wrong and I
• 1:28:23
  hope Opti and Walker are right and I hope that I get to eat my
• 1:28:28
  words. And in the beginning of Q1 and
• 1:28:31
  Q2, we're hitting all time highs or we're above 100K.
• 1:28:35
  If in Q1 we're above $100,000, again, completely uncharted
• 1:28:42
  territory, completely in uncharted territory.
• 1:28:45
  And I'll say, I'll say 11 next thing.
• 1:28:48
  If Bitcoin ends the year in the red, it would be unprecedented
• 1:28:58
  for Bitcoin to end next year in the red as well.
• 1:29:02
  That would be two years that Bitcoin's in the red.
• 1:29:06
  That's never happened before. And all the arguments about it
• 1:29:09
  being an inflation hedge and number go up and it's better
• 1:29:14
  than real estate and it's better than gold.
• 1:29:17
  All those arguments go out the fucking window, bro.
• 1:29:19
  Excuse my language, but they do, right?
• 1:29:23
  So let's see. Let's, let's wait and see.
• 1:29:27
  Let's, let's wait and see what happens, right?
• 1:29:30
  Someone asks how much pain do the normies have to suffer
• 1:29:33
  before they buy Bitcoin? Look, I, I, I always sell this
• 1:29:36
  to everybody when they're like, Oh my God, the price of
• 1:29:38
  Bitcoin's going down. What should I do?
• 1:29:40
  I always tell them like maximum pain.
• 1:29:44
  And that's like the route that Bitcoin always takes.
• 1:29:46
  It's maximum pain. So just get used to it, get
• 1:29:50
  comfortable with it, thrive in it.
• 1:29:51
  What's the Bane line from Batman?
• 1:29:54
  Like it's like you, you, you adopted the darkness.
• 1:29:58
  I was, I was, I was, I was born in it.
• 1:30:01
  So it's like, you know, you adopted the pain.
• 1:30:04
  I was born into the pain. If you're a bitcoiner, you're
• 1:30:08
  used to paying you live for like one or two months out of four
• 1:30:15
  years, except we never got those one or two months to see you
• 1:30:19
  this time around. Oh my God.
• 1:30:23
  All right, everybody, we love you all.
• 1:30:24
  We appreciate you. Thank you guys so much for
• 1:30:26
  tuning in. Smash the like button.
• 1:30:29
  If you guys enjoyed today's show, we love you and we'll see
• 1:30:33
  you on the next one. Today's episode was brought to
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• 1:30:39
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