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AFL Preview Episode 3 - Peoria Javelinas · The Scout and The Speculator

• Jaba: Hello everybody, welcome back to the Scout and the Speculator podcast. This is Will Jarvis, also known as Jabba Cards, ⁓ joined by my co-host Jeremy Brown of Perfect Game Baseball, more importantly known as JGB, underscore cards underscore. And today we are here to bring you the third episode of our six-part series, breaking down Arizona Fall League teams. We'll probably do an episode at the end talking about kind of like sleepers names to watch. But as far as standalone episodes go, there's gonna be six of these. We're on team three of six. And that team is the Peoria Javelinas. Before I let Jeremy kick us off there, this episode as always is brought to you by Prospect Pulse. That is Prospect Pulse V one dot com. Best place for all of your Bowman prospecting, collecting, investing, buying. Anything you wanna do with Bowman cards that you would want streamlined in one place, it is there. ⁓ go check it out. Give me a shout if you have any questions or you're curious how things work, I'm happy to talk it through. Alright, with that being said, Jeremy, let's give the people what they want. Tell them about the Peoria javelinas. underscore_underscore_: Let's do it. ⁓ so that would be 11 base autos, 11 players with Bowman autos, I should say, ranging all the way from Ike Irish, who was averaging $32.40 for his base auto, down to Canon Cap at $2.69. ⁓ got prospects going all the way back to 2020 draft. Shouts out to Ko Arobi. And some newer guys like Brandon Butterworth and Brandon Clark in the mix. ⁓ let's start. What do you want to do? Let's go with. I think the potentially most electric guy on here who could jump the biggest is gonna be Ty Pete. Honestly. ⁓ I see a base auto average of $27.13 right here. ⁓ always kind of been like a name, even dating back to when he was in the Little League World Series. Peachtree City. Stand up. ⁓ but Jaba: With you on that, yeah. underscore_underscore_: I mean, he's really come into his own this year. It's still like where's he gonna play positionally? Is there gonna be enough bat to ball? But the power and he's kinda got that ⁓ He's got some swagger to him, I guess. You we've all seen his pimped home runs right now. If I'm good enough at editing this as ⁓ poorly as I do, I'll put it right over my voice now of some of the pimp jobs he's had. But I just feel like that's a player in that environment that could catch heat. And ⁓ in in a good way, catch some steam. And I mean hit three hundred this year, thirteen home runs, but a lot of his home runs have come late in the year. I think he's somebody that could fully take advantage of not having the greatest of pitching, higher altitude, drier air environment, and he's somebody we could be saying like, hey, kind of like an Esmarlin Valdez type treatment from last year. Jaba: Yeah. Yeah, I agree. And you know, I think something we said in the last two episodes that's true here. The nice thing about the ⁓ the AFL and investing in some of these guys, you're probably not gonna lose value. I mean Type could go OPS like three hundred. I'm not sure his market moves down, but if he has, you know, one or two big nights goes nuts, or he has a great campaign in its totality, you know, like you said, he's kinda got the swagger, the style of play with the speed power combo where he could really be a fast riser and underscore_underscore_: Mm. Jaba: You know, I know I was saying ⁓ previously, not really a thing right now where I'm saying you should be buying these guys more on the lookout for selling. But we do have a couple of weeks before they kick off and Ty Pete, if there is a guy to buy, I mean if you could get a blue at like a hundred, hundred twenty bucks, I would feel good buying into Ty Pete now. you know, I'm I'm with you there. He's exciting. ⁓ underscore_underscore_: Just promote it to double A. Spent twenty one games there, hit three home runs. Does have twenty three strikeouts to six walks like we talked about, but he's hitting three nineteen. So just kind of something to keep in your back of your mind. You are buying the power, you're not necessarily buying a defensive standout, nor are you buying the bat to ball skill hit tool. let's go with a organizational teammate who I think could make just as much noise, but on the mound. Wanna talk about Brandon Clark? Jaba: Yeah. I'll let you take Brandon Clark, our boy. underscore_underscore_: Alright. So I mean, we have we talked about the true blue we got. He let's start with all the bad things. He's twenty three and he just got just came back, like but has climbed from rookie to A ball to high and they him in double A for his first playoff start. He's had some arm issues. He does have he is twenty four. He is only thrown what, four innings in double A. That's the highest level he's thrown in his career. There is reliever risk. All that, like, why are we buying him then? Because he's still up to 103 with like a 70 slider. And is starting and they're stretching him out and he threw his four running stint in the playoffs for double A, right? they already take him along as a starter, struck out seven, walked one, one hit. Like it is electric stuff. It is brand new product. And his base autos are still hovering in that twenty to thirty dollar range where If he comes out and is throwing 102, you know it's going to get picked up all over the place. We saw what happened to Carlos LaGranja for striking out Judge on a backfield. We don't talk about Judge taking him deep the at bat prior, just that he was up to 102 and struck out Judge. ⁓ Clark could kind of do that from the left side. And with the slider and a league that's going to be yearning for some pitching excitement, he could be your guy. I wouldn't be surprised if you see his true colors kind of push up. Jaba: Yep. underscore_underscore_: ⁓ even as base autos are gonna be transacted more heavily. Every so often you can probably find ⁓ cheaper. I think I bought one on stream on a whatnot stream for fourteen, fifteen bucks a day or two after release. Just kinda grab that, hold it, wait and see. Jaba: Yeah. Yeah, sub sub twenty. I I would really like base of his. underscore_underscore_: So, I mean those are two upside plays I think here with him. ⁓ could have started with the most expensive auto in the in the on the team. That's Ike Irish, missed a lot of time this year. Left-handed hitting catcher, obviously came out of Auburn, highly regarded since he was drafted for the O's. Had been a chase out of draft. A lot of people still buy him heavy. He is kind of like we talked about where he's coming back to get reps now. I think it'll be good to see how he lands on his feet. in the AFL. ⁓ and another one, I mean we have him listed as an outfielder here. I don't know if he's gonna catch long term. I do think he is one where it's almost like not not that prospect fatigue or more so Bowman Amnesia amnesia might have set in where you kind of forget about him and then you see what he's able to do on the field. And I think some people might be like, ⁓ yeah, he is really good. I've been chasing all the guys out of the DSL for the last two months. Let's go back to Ike Irish. Jaba: Yeah. I think for me so when Ike Irish came out, when Bowman Draft came out, I was doing the preview article for Prospects Live and I basically said, you know, this guy's a future first baseman and all he does is hit ground balls. You know, I'm I'm out on him. And again, you know, that was obviously relative to price. You know, it wasn't saying he's terrible, but I was saying, you know, for the prices he's going to go for underscore_underscore_: Yeah. Jaba: I am not a buyer. That is still true at thirty-two dollars, but he did make big strides year over year with kind of those issues that concern me. I mean the ground ball rate last year he was hitting one point seven ground balls per fly ball. Now it's down to one point four. ⁓ fly ball rate actually exactly the same at thirty two percent year over year, but he upped his line drive rate by ten percent. And all of that obviously came off of the ground ball rate. He does pull the ball well, so it seems like he's kinda optimizing that swing to get the pull side power. I'm not gonna act like I'm, you know, a swing expert here. That's kinda getting into your territory. But for me it's like, okay, well, he's probably not gonna catch full time. You know, I know he was playing corner outfield and first base, guy that probably winds up at first base with forty grade speed. underscore_underscore_: Right. Jaba: ⁓ you're gonna need to hit you're gonna need to hit bombs and I you know, I gotta say seventy six games at high A, sixteen homers, twenty dollars. I I mean that's that's just really good output. You know, the K rate's totally fine at what is it like twenty three percent, ⁓ you know, ⁓ twenty two percent, ⁓ gets his walks. ⁓ definitely higher on him than I was a year ago. I think that this year was very good for him. underscore_underscore_: Yeah. Jaba: But at the same time, it's a bit of a Charles Dadalon situation where it's like, okay, well he did do it at high A as a twenty two year old SEC hitter. ⁓ where you can't use that against him, right? You know, you play where you're put and he played really well. ⁓ but yeah, I think he's getting closer to being a goodbye. I i if he sank to like twenty two to twenty four underscore_underscore_: SEC product. Yep. Jaba: I think I'd be buying him. I'm not at thirty, but he is an intriguing guy and I'm curious to see what he does kinda coming off that that injury. I think he pulled his hamstring. Shout out Caleb Williams. I really wanted to get something in here about Caleb Williams yesterday acting like he got shot. Now they're saying he might not miss a game. ⁓ I feel like he lost all of his aura with that one. ⁓ sorry to any Chicago Bears fans. Another guy I was excited to talk about that I've kinda you when Jeremy was talking, I was doing a little digging and ⁓ lost some steam on the excitement train. Ty Harvey, he's the number four Padres prospect, but y you know, with the Padres it's always more because there are no prospects, so you kinda have to take their internal or not internal, but their team rankings with a grain of salt. ⁓ Ty Harvey got a big bonus in the fifth round last year. ⁓ athletic catcher underscore_underscore_: Yeah. Jaba: He missed some time to kick off this year. Came back, went nuts in rookie league. Eleven seventy one OPS and eleven games. You know, great start there. So they send him off to single A, where he struggled pretty badly. 46 games, 639 OPS. ⁓ you know, with catchers, obviously you have to think about the fact that they're kinda, you know, working two jobs, learning a pitching stuff, you know, the catcher position development is a lot more intense. than you know, guy playing third base. so I'm willing to give him a little bit of leeway, but you know, those numbers just aren't super exciting. But he's a good athlete, good speed, power, combo. F only five homers on the year, but you know, nine steals. That's I forget who we were talking about last episode. You know, the nine steals, he's not a burner, but it's nice to see some athleticism. but yeah, I mean he's six foot two underscore_underscore_: Mm. Yeah. Jaba: two fifteen, he's well built, former FSU commit. He's gonna be twenty for most of next year. I have my eye on him. ⁓ and you know that's one again that can only go up. He's at a base auto of seven dollars, just shy of seven dollars. ⁓ so yeah, I mean if you can get a base auto at five bucks I'd take a shot. But yeah, so looking at this list, who else is standing out to you here? Because we are running out of names quickly. underscore_underscore_: Yeah. These are all all these positions are pulled from the rosters, correct? So Sammy Hernandez, we have listed as a second baseman. His MILB profile has him as a catcher. ⁓ 5'9, 185. What do you guess? Power's probably the name of his game. He had 11 pumps this year, but also stro stole 21 bags. He is up to high A. Kind of one of those I don't want to say he's a throwaway name in the product, but he was one of the Jaba: Yes. Yep, that's true. underscore_underscore_: Guys that had color only that you don't think about when it comes time to buy his autos because he's already been in the market. So you're ⁓ I don't know if people associate himself with themselves with just the color, but he was a color first guy, got his autos the next iteration. ⁓ there's some juice there. He's smaller, but he's got some juice and some speed. Interesting to see him moving to second base. ⁓ we pulled these numbers pr less than a week ago. We're looking at Brandon Butterworth at $14 base auto. Jaba: Yeah. underscore_underscore_: Those can now be had sub $5 pretty much consistently across the board. ⁓ some of the more recent ones, $325, $425, $5, $650, $8.3. So that just shows quick how quickly it can go down. Another one I dug into is Tokoa Roby. We have him at $13.90. ⁓ he is by far the oldest player on this list being a 2020 draft. Somebody I loved in high school was a Troy commit. Fun fact for you guys. Jaba: Yep. No Trojans. underscore_underscore_: Didn't pitch at all this year, so he's one of those guys that definitely could come out and make some noise if the stuff is really good. I think his thirteen dollar and ninety cent base auto is more of a lack of transacting. You go to card ladder, look up all his numbers if you'd like for recent sales. It's a lot of color and the prices on them suggest the base auto would be lower. To Coa Roby. ⁓ let's see. As an example Jaba: Same draft as ⁓ when the Mets took PCA. I'm just gonna get out ahead of that one so you cancel me. ⁓ it it doesn't hurt me if I call it out. underscore_underscore_: There There you go. Like true blue just did fifty bucks. True blue just did fifty bucks. Like so there is still some life to him. Refractor did ⁓ seventy, a PSA ten Goldwave did eighty. So that's not a dead market. He's a name, he's still in the the top twenty for the Cardinals. ⁓ Jay Allen, number another super ⁓ throwback name, twenty twenty one draft, sub ten dollars. He was a super athlete coming out of high school, I believe it was a dual commit with Florida football and baseball, got popped in the first round. Nate Dom traded from your Mets to the Cardinals. Luke Holman, LSU, representing the Reds with a sub three dollar base and Canon Kemp rounding up. All three of those arms are like pretty damn big. Like physically imposing. ⁓ they all have had like let's see, Holman's six four two ⁓ one. Kemp is six five two twenty five. Jaba: He's a big dude, right? Holman. underscore_underscore_: And Nate Dom is a former Matt. six four two ten. So they're all big. They all have lit literally my ⁓ meal deals at Dunkin' Donuts every morning are less than their base auto. Where all it takes is one good outing, names circulate a little bit, people go buy up the floor and you could double your money. Now are you making a lot of money by doubling those up? No. But there is I guess there is upside there, I I suppose. That's right. Haha Jaba: Mississippi State, I think. That's two Dunkin' Mail deals. underscore_underscore_: There is ⁓ there is something there. They've all had their moments, at least on the whatnot app, of people asking for them, looking for them, wanting them. So another good outing or two from them could r kinda revitalize their markets. And that go ahead. Jaba: Yeah, ⁓ sorry, ⁓ I'll I'll let you close out. underscore_underscore_: On you. Go for it. People want to hear it. Jaba: Yeah, so I mean, I I I don't wanna beat any of these guys to death because most of them just aren't really on the radar, but I do wanna go back to Sammy Hernandez. ⁓ you know, when he came out last year, obviously he had the issue where he was, you know, non-auto in Bowman. Then by the time he has autos, you know, that's kind of working against you. Second of all, he was terrible last year. He had a six forty five OPS. underlying metrics, there just wasn't much there. I mean, he was trending on, you know, being out of baseball. And beyond that, another thing that I thought was interesting about him is he was a catcher in the St. Louis organization where not only was he stuck behind Ryan Rodriguez to start at single A last year, so he was playing out of position. Obviously Ryanel is a super prospect. ⁓ so, you know, he wasn't getting steady everyday playing time. He was playing out of position. Another guy they have is Leo Bernard Bernal. I'm not sure they ever overlapped, but I mean Bernal is in the majors now. He's doing well, I'm pretty sure. You know, that's two huge names that you're buried behind. And coming off last year, you know, I would have said that this, you know, autograph wasn't worth a dollar. This year he just came in and went nuts in high A, right? I mean, it was only 65 games, but that is a real sample. 11 homers. He had hit 13 across four pro seasons before. 940 OPS. You know, now he's getting the underscore_underscore_: Yep, very well. Yeah. Jaba: position change to second base, you know, maybe he starts feeling himself here. He's not going to be twenty three until the middle of next season. Maybe he starts at double A playing second base. You know, that's that that's not a top one hundred guy. That's not probably not an organizational top ten guy, but you could sneak into the top ten there. The Cardinals have a good fan base. You know, he's kind of just a likable player. You know, does a little bit of everything. Eleven homers, twenty-one steals, hits, gets his walks. underscore_underscore_: Yeah. Jaba: You know, again, I'm not I'm not going crazy, you know, trying to get his stuff, but I do think that he's, you know, dealt with a lot of adversity in like the last in twenty twenty five at least. And, you know, to me seeing the trend here, I think it's definitely worth taking note of because you know, it went from just total non prospect to, you know, forcing his way back onto the radar and underscore_underscore_: Yeah. Jaba: Yeah, I think it's easy to like those stories, easy to root for type of player. And ⁓ yeah. But you got any closing thoughts before we wrap up here? This is probably the worst roster. underscore_underscore_: Yeah, I d no, ⁓ I mean we got Brandon Butterworth out of the new stuff. He's been this is his third year of Pro Bowl. It's twenty four. He's made it up to what? ⁓ double A, I believe. He's made it up to triple A. Had a good year, fifteen pumps, twenty three bags, hit two sixty six. ⁓ just didn't really talk about him, just how his base went down. One of those older guys in a new product that probably aren't a huge chase for people, but does have a cool name factor going for him, so Jaba: Think so. Yeah. underscore_underscore_: ⁓ that's about all I got. I think Clark would be my upside arm, Typeet's my upside bat if I had to pick one of each. If you asked me not to take the easy way out, I don't know what I would do. Sammy Hernandez and Tokoa Roby, maybe? I mean that's just four Cardinals players. I guess I'm moving to St. Louis. Jaba: Yeah. ⁓ underscore_underscore_: Yeah. Jaba: Hold my comments. But yeah, yeah. I ⁓ I kinda echo that. I mean Ike Irish, I'm at least gonna check his box scores. More out of curiosity than being a active buyer. But yeah, I ⁓ can't imagine these guys do too well against our Glendale Desert Dogs, baby. Go dogs. I'm on the bandwagon. Alright. Thank you everybody for listening. ⁓ appreciate you all. Please let us know what you want to hear us talk about. And ⁓ go Mets and go Desert Dogs. See you guys.