Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / March Madness First Round Betting Guide PART 2

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March Madness First Round Betting Guide PART 2 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

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1:17
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network.
1:21
Speaker 1: I'm Chad Norman. She content off the Action Network. It's
1:25
Speaker 1: March Madness, we folks. We just did a part one
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Speaker 1: podcast looking at every game on Thursday with Action Network
1:31
Speaker 1: college basketball expert b J Cunningham. I'm joined as I
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Speaker 1: am by my BFF, my companion, Michael Padre Simon Hunter.
1:39
Speaker 1: B J. We gotta get to part two. Simon, why
1:43
Speaker 1: don't you get to ask about the first game? Really,
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Speaker 1: you're gonna let me go first. I want you to
1:47
Speaker 1: go first. All it's it's a Chicago team, so I
1:50
Speaker 1: assumed you'd be be being on it, but I got opinions.
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Speaker 1: You know, this team feels like every year they're in it.
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Speaker 1: Liola ten seed, only point five dog right now to
2:00
Speaker 1: Ohio State the seventh seed. That's that's an interesting line
2:03
Speaker 1: right there. What do you think of it? B J? Yeah,
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Speaker 1: it is interesting because Ohio State has some injury concerns.
2:08
Speaker 1: Z Key and Kyle Young, two of their best big men,
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Speaker 1: are questionable play on Friday. It sounds like ze Key
2:12
Speaker 1: is likely to play, but Kyle Young is still up
2:15
Speaker 1: in the air, which would be you know, if both
2:16
Speaker 1: of them will play, it's a huge boost of the
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Speaker 1: buck Eyes. But like every year, this Loyal Chicago team
2:20
Speaker 1: is incredibly difficult to beat. They finished the season seventh
2:24
Speaker 1: ineffective field goal percentage, They spaced the floor well, their
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Speaker 1: top twenty in shot selection, thirteenth in rim and three
2:30
Speaker 1: point rate. It's just it's a really, really difficult team
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Speaker 1: to stop. With that being said, they're going to have
2:35
Speaker 1: to hit a ton of their ton of threes to
2:37
Speaker 1: win this game because they're not that efficient at the rim.
2:40
Speaker 1: Ohio State is outstanding up preventing people to get to
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Speaker 1: the rim. The pace of this game is going to
2:44
Speaker 1: be incredibly slow and played in the half court. Both
2:47
Speaker 1: Loyal Chicago Ohio State bottom and adjusted tempo top one
2:51
Speaker 1: in frequency of possessions in the half court. I mean, listen,
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Speaker 1: Ohio State. They're very talented team. They have one of
2:56
Speaker 1: the best players in college basketball and e j Lydell,
2:59
Speaker 1: but they're very very reliant on him scoring, especially from
3:02
Speaker 1: the post, so they basically get down there, they throw
3:05
Speaker 1: it into him. They gets doubled, they throw it out
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Speaker 1: and it's just it's a long possession over and over.
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Speaker 1: And that's really what Loyal Chicago does great Defensively, I
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Speaker 1: prevented forcing teams to play those long type of possessions.
3:16
Speaker 1: So I actually love the under thirties two and a
3:18
Speaker 1: half points with that type of slow pace pace, with
3:21
Speaker 1: both teams being pretty good defensively and taking away some
3:23
Speaker 1: of the advantages the other offenses have. I like the
3:26
Speaker 1: under here. As far as a team to win this one,
3:29
Speaker 1: I mean I'll put I'll take Loyal Chicago to move on.
3:32
Speaker 1: I don't like it much because if those are two
3:34
Speaker 1: Ohio State big men are playing, that's gonna be troublesome
3:37
Speaker 1: for Loyal down loan. But I do think the Ramblers
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Speaker 1: end up advancing here more than anything, obviously, I'm going
3:44
Speaker 1: to have any opinion because it's Chicago. I am thrilled
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Speaker 1: the Leola has established a team that has a very
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Speaker 1: specific personality and a program that can last beyond program
4:00
Speaker 1: those who obviously left this past year. They built a
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Speaker 1: reputation like they built a Gonzaga of the Midwest, and
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Speaker 1: I think they're fantastic and they're moving to the American
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Speaker 1: Conference next year. I love that. I love that for
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Speaker 1: that team. I love it for the area, I love
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Speaker 1: it for the campus, love everything about it. Go Ramblers.
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Speaker 1: All right, Simon, we got Jacksonville State visiting a very inconsistent,
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Speaker 1: up and down Auburn team that, to me, is one
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Speaker 1: of the teams that is most reflective of the personality
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Speaker 1: of its coach in that it is frenetic, it is emotional,
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Speaker 1: it is inconsistent. It can be great, it can be maddening.
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Speaker 1: All of those things also pertain to Bruce Pearl fifteen
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Speaker 1: and a half point favorites against Jacksonville State. You know
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Speaker 1: it's gonna be the poor opposite of the last game
4:48
Speaker 1: we just talked about. If you want to see a
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Speaker 1: three point shooting contest, uh, this is the game for
4:51
Speaker 1: you because Jacksonville State, they're gonna be completely out outmatched
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Speaker 1: in the front court. Jabarr Smith and Walker Kestler have
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Speaker 1: huge size advantages over them. But if for them to
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Speaker 1: Jacksonville State to actually have a chance in this game,
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Speaker 1: they're gonna have hit a boatload of three pointers. And
5:03
Speaker 1: that hasn't been a problem for them this season because
5:05
Speaker 1: they are eleventh in the country in three point field
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Speaker 1: goal percentage and they take them at top sixty rates.
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Speaker 1: I mean, Jacksonville States two guards, the two Jalen's Jalen
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Speaker 1: Gibs and Jalen Fitch Finch, are both shooting over from
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Speaker 1: behind the arc. Auburn defensively is very hard to score
5:20
Speaker 1: at the rim with those two big guys, but they
5:21
Speaker 1: do tend to struggle defending three pointers. So Jacksonville State
5:25
Speaker 1: is absolutely gonna be able to stay in this game.
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Speaker 1: The pace is gonna be, like you said, Frenetick fast
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Speaker 1: if it's played at Auburn's liking their top ten in
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Speaker 1: the country in terms of efficiency in transition. Well that's
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Speaker 1: also good for Jacksonville State, who's also top ten in
5:39
Speaker 1: terms of efficiency in transition. So if this turns into
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Speaker 1: a track meet three point shooting contest, I mean, that's
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Speaker 1: there's gonna be just scoring galore. But the worry I
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Speaker 1: have for Jacksonville State is their two biggest guys or
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Speaker 1: six ten and six seven. That is not good going
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Speaker 1: against Barri Smith and Walker Kestler, who are six eleven
5:56
Speaker 1: and six and seven to so given the fact that
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Speaker 1: Jacksonville State shots a ton of three pointers, they're efficient
6:02
Speaker 1: in transition and the pace this game is if it's
6:04
Speaker 1: played fast and should be because you know, Auburn is
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Speaker 1: the favorite. I love over a hundred and thirty six
6:09
Speaker 1: and a half points here. I think this is gonna
6:11
Speaker 1: go way way over the total given the style that
6:14
Speaker 1: this game is gonna be played at. I like that
6:15
Speaker 1: you're giving us totals and not just focusing on the sides.
6:18
Speaker 1: Because now we got an opportunity for every market. We
6:22
Speaker 1: get the fourth team seed, Montana State, playing against what
6:24
Speaker 1: you said, it is one of the best defenses in
6:25
Speaker 1: the country, Texas Tech fifty and a half points. That's
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Speaker 1: a lot of points for a team that is, you know,
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Speaker 1: defensively strong, but are they offensively strong to cover that number?
6:34
Speaker 1: Is this one of those that the bookmakers are saying
6:37
Speaker 1: this team won't be able to keep up with such
6:38
Speaker 1: a great defense. This is one ultimately be passing on.
6:41
Speaker 1: I think Texas Tech, you know, cruises here, but there
6:44
Speaker 1: is one little bugaboo troublesomething for Texas Tech. The Montana State.
6:49
Speaker 1: They get to the free throw line at the fifth
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Speaker 1: highest rate in the country, and well, Texas Tech does
6:56
Speaker 1: everything well defensively, that's one area they tend to struggle
6:59
Speaker 1: with their two in thirty seconds in free throw rate allowed.
7:02
Speaker 1: So if Montana Day is able to get them in
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Speaker 1: foul trouble and gets the free throw and they could
7:06
Speaker 1: stay in this uh there. You know, the Bobcats are
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Speaker 1: very efficient in both transition and the half court. But
7:11
Speaker 1: like I said, this is the number one team in
7:13
Speaker 1: terms of adjusted defensive efficiency, number one team in college
7:16
Speaker 1: basketball in half court defense. Montana State the two biggest
7:20
Speaker 1: nonconference teams they played where Colorado and South Dakota State,
7:24
Speaker 1: and they were pretty efficient fishing offensively in both those games.
7:26
Speaker 1: But this is a really really bad matchup for them,
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Speaker 1: and then really just a massive step up in competition
7:32
Speaker 1: from what they've been seeing in the Big Sky Conference.
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Speaker 1: You know, Montana State, it's not that greater defensive team,
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Speaker 1: especially in transition. Uh. Texas Tech is third in terms
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Speaker 1: of efficiency and transition, but they don't. They play a
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Speaker 1: pretty slow pace and they don't get out and transition
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Speaker 1: that much. So it's it's kind of a weird matchup.
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Speaker 1: I do think the line is absolutely correct and along
7:50
Speaker 1: with the total, uh maybe look at it and over
7:53
Speaker 1: if this game is if Montana State push this to
7:55
Speaker 1: an above average tempo which they usually play at UM.
7:59
Speaker 1: But yeah, Ultimate really is just another one of those
8:01
Speaker 1: matchups that has given me a little bit of a
8:04
Speaker 1: head scratcher. So I will ultimately passing Texas Tech, Loyal
8:10
Speaker 1: per Due. Three college basketball programs that are sustaining success
8:18
Speaker 1: after like the long time or which they brought them
8:23
Speaker 1: to that level of success, got them there. I love that.
8:27
Speaker 1: I love that for these programs, Legacy, legacy, what we're
8:32
Speaker 1: doing with the Action Network long after I'm gone, Matt Mitchel,
8:36
Speaker 1: B J. Simon. Yes, I'm putting myself in the same
8:40
Speaker 1: category as Gene Katie. You guys, we'll be just taking
8:44
Speaker 1: the Action Network to the tournament every year, losing in
8:48
Speaker 1: the second round, and it's going to be fantastic. The
8:51
Speaker 1: Yale Bulldogs winners of the IVY League being Princeton, they
8:55
Speaker 1: get the benefit of getting into the tournament to be
8:57
Speaker 1: sixteen point under out to the Produce Boiling Makers. Yeah,
9:01
Speaker 1: this is um gonna be a very very interesting game,
9:03
Speaker 1: and I think one that's gonna be played in a
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Speaker 1: pretty high tempo with a lot of scoring. So Produe
9:07
Speaker 1: ended this season third in terms of adjusted offensive efficiency
9:10
Speaker 1: and as you saw in the Big Ten, tournament. They
9:12
Speaker 1: have two incredible big men and Zachie who's seven four
9:16
Speaker 1: in Trevion Williams, who was about as physical and skilled
9:18
Speaker 1: of a big man that you're gonna find in college basketball.
9:21
Speaker 1: Their top twelve and two point in three point field
9:23
Speaker 1: goal percentage. They're unbelievably good in transition, where I think
9:26
Speaker 1: most of this game is gonna be played. Yale does
9:29
Speaker 1: play at a pretty fast paced or a six in
9:31
Speaker 1: adjusted tempo. Their average possession linked on defense is ninth
9:35
Speaker 1: lowest in the country, which means teams are either getting
9:37
Speaker 1: shots up in transition what they're scoring very quickly in
9:40
Speaker 1: the half court, which definitely UH favors Perdue. And this
9:43
Speaker 1: one the biggest problem is Yale is not a good defensive,
9:48
Speaker 1: rebounding team or defending at the rim, which is a
9:50
Speaker 1: big big problem facing produced so I think produced scores
9:55
Speaker 1: at well. I mean Isaiah Kelly is their starting center
9:59
Speaker 1: for Yale. He is six ft seven trying to defend
10:01
Speaker 1: a seven four zach eat, so Perdue a big time
10:05
Speaker 1: advantages on the flip side. Perdue not that great of
10:07
Speaker 1: a defensive team eleven a hundredth in the country and
10:09
Speaker 1: adjusted defensive efficiency per Ken Palm there three d sixteenth
10:13
Speaker 1: in points procesession allowed in transition defense, three second in
10:16
Speaker 1: defending midrange jumpers, which Yale is twenty most efficient net
10:20
Speaker 1: on offense. So the total is set at a hundred
10:22
Speaker 1: and forty three. Given the fact that Yale plays at
10:24
Speaker 1: a fast pace produe is incredibly good in transition offensively
10:27
Speaker 1: but really bad defensively. I think we're gonna go way
10:30
Speaker 1: over that total. So I love over a hundred forty
10:32
Speaker 1: three points. All. We got the fifteen seed Delaware, which
10:36
Speaker 1: is a school I did get into Chad, but they
10:38
Speaker 1: wouldn't give me any money, so I was not allowed
10:41
Speaker 1: to go there. Delaware versus Nova the two seed fifteen
10:45
Speaker 1: and a half a lot of points. Yeah, it is
10:47
Speaker 1: a tad high, uh, And I think that if it
10:50
Speaker 1: gets a little higher, I might end up playing Delaware,
10:52
Speaker 1: who finished the season as the number one team in
10:54
Speaker 1: the CIA in terms of just offensive efficiency. But I
10:58
Speaker 1: don't think that will translate too well against Villanova. They
11:02
Speaker 1: played a team in very similar in terms of the
11:04
Speaker 1: style of Illanova, which is very slow pace, very sufficient defense,
11:09
Speaker 1: and shoots a ton of threes. They played Davidson in
11:12
Speaker 1: the first game of the season, they got their doors
11:14
Speaker 1: blown off seventy one Davis hit fourteen threes against them.
11:18
Speaker 1: That was the first game of the season, I understand,
11:20
Speaker 1: but that's also the last time they saw a team
11:23
Speaker 1: even close to the caliber they're going to face against Villanova.
11:26
Speaker 1: Delaware not a good defense against three pointers two fifty
11:30
Speaker 1: seventh in the country and three point philbo percential out
11:32
Speaker 1: against the Villanova team that shoots the twenty three highest
11:35
Speaker 1: rate in terms of three pointers in the country. So
11:38
Speaker 1: very very bad matchup here for Delaware. But Delaware is
11:42
Speaker 1: good at defending and transition um. But for those, like
11:45
Speaker 1: I said, Villanova has played a very very slow pace,
11:47
Speaker 1: with almost all of it coming in the half court.
11:48
Speaker 1: So it's a really tough match up here for Delaware.
11:51
Speaker 1: But with that being said, the number is getting steamed.
11:53
Speaker 1: It is getting a tattoo high. If Villanova shoots up
11:56
Speaker 1: to sixteen and a half seventeen, I might have to
12:01
Speaker 1: end up playing Delaware, but other than that, I will
12:02
Speaker 1: be staying away. Miami sneaks into the tournament as a
12:07
Speaker 1: what looks like a ten seed. They're playing the usc Trojans,
12:11
Speaker 1: which has become a very consistent program. They're one and
12:14
Speaker 1: a half favorites USC is. I think USC covers and advances,
12:19
Speaker 1: so they have a pretty massive size advantage against Miami
12:22
Speaker 1: Trojans or fourth and average heights. Miami is two twelve,
12:26
Speaker 1: but Miami is the most efficient team in scoring in
12:29
Speaker 1: transition in all of college basketball. Will you USC is
12:32
Speaker 1: in the bottom half in defending and transition. However, I
12:35
Speaker 1: still like this match from USC. The Trojans are the
12:37
Speaker 1: number two team in the country in fieldal percentage, a
12:39
Speaker 1: lout at the rim, where a lot of Miami shots
12:41
Speaker 1: are coming from because they have one of the lower
12:43
Speaker 1: three point rates in the a SEC. So if Miami
12:46
Speaker 1: isn't shooting a high number three pointers and isn't able
12:48
Speaker 1: to score effectively at the rim, that means gonna be
12:51
Speaker 1: forced into a ton of mid range jumpers, which USC
12:53
Speaker 1: is pretty good at defending. On the flip side, USC
12:56
Speaker 1: with their size that the time of post ups with
12:58
Speaker 1: Isaaiah Mobli, which is a big, big advantage against Miami,
13:02
Speaker 1: who's outside the top two post of defense and field
13:05
Speaker 1: goal percentage allowed at the rims. So also USC twenty
13:08
Speaker 1: six and offensive rebounding Miami two sixty six. That keeping
13:11
Speaker 1: teams off the offensive glass. So outside of the kind
13:16
Speaker 1: of a bad matchup for USC and Transition given their
13:19
Speaker 1: size advantage, and I think they'll be able to dominate
13:21
Speaker 1: Miami downlow. So I love the Trojans to cover minus
13:24
Speaker 1: were and a half in advance the second round and
13:26
Speaker 1: BJ thanks again. Man at Virginia Tech, which is the
13:28
Speaker 1: next game where I talk about that was such a
13:30
Speaker 1: great call. I'm a Duke fan, so for me, it's
13:33
Speaker 1: it hurt to lose and coach K lose like that.
13:36
Speaker 1: But I don't know, I hate too, so I savored
13:39
Speaker 1: every single moment, you know what. I was thinking about
13:42
Speaker 1: hedging it, but at this last second, I was kind
13:45
Speaker 1: of just like, you know what, let's just it's ten
13:46
Speaker 1: to one. Let's just let it ride. Yeah, let it ride.
13:48
Speaker 1: I got nine to one, so I like, again, kid,
13:50
Speaker 1: I was like, you know what, that sucked for Coach K,
13:52
Speaker 1: but I just made nine K to watch a basketball game,
13:54
Speaker 1: so exactly. Yeah. I mean, listen, Virginia Tech is an
13:58
Speaker 1: incredibly underrated team. You saw me CE tournament. Back to
14:01
Speaker 1: the same thing I spoke about with IOWA. These teams
14:03
Speaker 1: that aren't used to winning the conference tournaments, aren't used
14:05
Speaker 1: to going deep. I really worry about the hangover playing
14:09
Speaker 1: four games in four days and having that type of
14:12
Speaker 1: you know, that that high of winning the tournament and
14:14
Speaker 1: then coming in and having to play a very very
14:17
Speaker 1: good Texas team that grades out very well analytically. But
14:20
Speaker 1: there are just so many times with Texas, and the
14:22
Speaker 1: TCU game is a perfect example in the Big Twelve tournament,
14:25
Speaker 1: where they just go through these scoring droughts that completely
14:28
Speaker 1: take them out of the game. I mean, Texas, they're
14:30
Speaker 1: the second best team in college basketball and points for
14:32
Speaker 1: possession allowed in half court defense, so you know, Virginia
14:35
Speaker 1: plays at a snail's pace with most of their possessions
14:37
Speaker 1: coming in the half court. So that's not really that
14:39
Speaker 1: great of a matchup for them. But as we spoke
14:41
Speaker 1: about the last podcast, Virginia's Tech really really efficient three
14:45
Speaker 1: point shooting team over thirty nine percent from behind the
14:47
Speaker 1: arc this season. But it's really hard because I really
14:53
Speaker 1: do like Virginia Techs matchup, I really do. I think
14:55
Speaker 1: they're one of the more Andrea team to college basketball,
14:57
Speaker 1: and Texas has given me so many bad vibes all
15:00
Speaker 1: season long. But then you look at look at it
15:02
Speaker 1: analytically and you're like, Okay, this is not the best
15:05
Speaker 1: matchup for Virginia techs, so I will ultimately be passing
15:08
Speaker 1: doing how good Texas defense has been all season long.
15:11
Speaker 1: This could be a good live betting situation if Virginia
15:13
Speaker 1: Tech gets down from that hangover from the a CEC
15:15
Speaker 1: tournament as we saw so many times with Texas just
15:17
Speaker 1: blowing these type of huge leads. So you could be
15:20
Speaker 1: a better number on Virginia Tech live. But unless the
15:22
Speaker 1: Hoaxes get to plus two and a half or plus three,
15:25
Speaker 1: I'm gonna ultimately be passing and just waiting to bet
15:28
Speaker 1: this life. What about just advancing? I will be picking
15:32
Speaker 1: Virginia Tech to advance in my bracket. Do you think
15:35
Speaker 1: they are a better team than Texas? But I will
15:37
Speaker 1: say it does not give me a good feeling, give
15:39
Speaker 1: you a yucky feeling, Yes, gives me a hangover feeling. Chet.
15:43
Speaker 1: The next matchup is Chattanooga at Illinois. Listen, Illinois. We
15:47
Speaker 1: talked about this. I feel they've been inconsistent. They proved
15:50
Speaker 1: it during the Big Ten Attorney. I feel like the
15:52
Speaker 1: past two years, even when they were number one seed
15:54
Speaker 1: last year, a little bit overhyped. Great in the middle
15:58
Speaker 1: with Kofi obviously but chat was live to me. I
16:02
Speaker 1: just gotta say, yes, they definitely are alive. In this
16:06
Speaker 1: number is a tad inflated. I mean, Chattan has two
16:08
Speaker 1: incredible players Malachi Smith and Kansas transfer Silvio and Desusa
16:12
Speaker 1: are two we're two of the best big two, best
16:15
Speaker 1: two players in the whole SOAC on this year, and
16:17
Speaker 1: Desuza can definitely match up with KOFE down low. The mocks. No,
16:21
Speaker 1: if you remember they wanted that desperation three beat fermant
16:24
Speaker 1: to go to the tournament, you know, just one of
16:26
Speaker 1: those uh first basket that's like, hey, we're finally here
16:29
Speaker 1: at March. Defensively, they're not that great, I'll be honest.
16:31
Speaker 1: Uh they pretty much every category you look at down
16:34
Speaker 1: the line they tend to struggle in and to beat Illinois.
16:38
Speaker 1: You know, obviously they've been inconsistent. But you have to
16:40
Speaker 1: defend in the post well against KOFE. You have to
16:42
Speaker 1: defend the pick and roll well, which they run a
16:44
Speaker 1: ton of with KOFE. And you have been three point
16:47
Speaker 1: line because they can throw four shooters out there on
16:49
Speaker 1: the three point line and just you know, run away
16:52
Speaker 1: with it. A certain type of game. Now, the reason
16:54
Speaker 1: they've been kind of inconsistent. Is they weren't hitting the
16:56
Speaker 1: three pointers at the high of the at higher rate
16:58
Speaker 1: in the Big Ten Conference that they were uh in
17:01
Speaker 1: the non conference. But on the flip side, you know,
17:04
Speaker 1: for Chattanooga offensively, they're gonna have to push the pace
17:07
Speaker 1: to compete in this game. They don't spend a ton
17:09
Speaker 1: of time in transition, but they are very very efficient
17:11
Speaker 1: there twenty five in the nation points per possession, Illinois
17:14
Speaker 1: defensively seven in defending and transition. Chattanooga also very good
17:18
Speaker 1: offensive rebounding team. It hardly turns the ball over. It's
17:21
Speaker 1: a really really good team. It worries me how bad
17:23
Speaker 1: they aren't defensively and that Illinois could just score at
17:26
Speaker 1: will on them, But they definitely do have the talent
17:29
Speaker 1: and the offense to hang with Illinois. And I do
17:31
Speaker 1: think Illinois is a tad overvalued on the spread here
17:33
Speaker 1: that I think the line should be around five. UM
17:36
Speaker 1: So I do like chattanoog get plus seven and a halfeed,
17:40
Speaker 1: cal State Fullerton is playing Duke, a two seed. Coach
17:44
Speaker 1: K's last run in March Madness plus nineteen. That's that's
17:47
Speaker 1: a lot Duke will get by this one. But Duke
17:50
Speaker 1: can't stop anything right now. They can't turn anybody over,
17:54
Speaker 1: they can't stop anybody in transition, and they're horrible at
17:56
Speaker 1: defending three pointers. Cal State Fullerton split in terms of
18:01
Speaker 1: their percentage of possessions in both half court and transition,
18:04
Speaker 1: but they don't take a high number of free pointers.
18:05
Speaker 1: So I think Duke might be a little bit off
18:07
Speaker 1: the hook here in the first round. You know, Calsa Florton,
18:10
Speaker 1: they do not have the size to compete with Duke.
18:12
Speaker 1: They're pretty poor at defending threes, so I think this
18:15
Speaker 1: line is pretty much spot on along with the overrunders,
18:17
Speaker 1: so I will ultimately passing. But what I will say
18:20
Speaker 1: is if Davidson gets by Mischion State, I will be
18:22
Speaker 1: fading Duke so hard in the second round. Duke last
18:26
Speaker 1: four games allowed over one point one point for possession
18:28
Speaker 1: in North Caronta, Syracuse without Buddy Beheim, Miami, and Virginia Peck.
18:32
Speaker 1: They are ripe for a big time upset playing especially
18:36
Speaker 1: a David's team filled with guys who wanted to go
18:39
Speaker 1: to Duke but coach K wouldn't recruit. So that I'll
18:43
Speaker 1: just say I love Davidson if they can get by
18:46
Speaker 1: to face Duke UH Davidson. Also one of the teams
18:49
Speaker 1: that we wrote about an action network that's getting a
18:52
Speaker 1: lot of wise guy love right now. Iowa State UH
18:55
Speaker 1: and Louisiana State. Louisiana State the team that best represents
19:00
Speaker 1: the history of corruption and malfeasance in sort of the
19:06
Speaker 1: best representation of that from the state known for it
19:11
Speaker 1: long live herely long. Right. Well wait, it has been fired. Man,
19:15
Speaker 1: that guy had nine lives, but there's still four point
19:17
Speaker 1: favorites Agasiowa State. Yeah. I guess that shows you just
19:21
Speaker 1: how bad the sanctions were. Have to fire a coach
19:23
Speaker 1: the day before the selection Sunday. Yeah, yeah, So, I
19:28
Speaker 1: mean the Tigers are absolutely influx. This is a game
19:31
Speaker 1: I will ultimately passing on. Maybe potentially, I think you
19:34
Speaker 1: could play a live under. These are two teams, both
19:38
Speaker 1: top ten in the country and adjust the defensive efficiency
19:41
Speaker 1: both top five and turnover percentage, while both offenses are
19:44
Speaker 1: outside the top three hundred in terms of turning the
19:46
Speaker 1: ball over. So if I'm playing anything, I mean the
19:49
Speaker 1: total set one one, seven and a half. That's fairly
19:52
Speaker 1: priced and honestly pretty low. Um, But you know, both
19:55
Speaker 1: these teams if they come out shooting lights out. I
19:58
Speaker 1: think that that's obviously gonna regress to is the main
20:00
Speaker 1: because both are hitting under from behind the arc, and
20:03
Speaker 1: these are also two of the twenty best three point
20:05
Speaker 1: field goal defenses in the country. So we'll be trying
20:08
Speaker 1: to look to play alive under. I don't know if
20:11
Speaker 1: we'll be able to. It might come out and these
20:12
Speaker 1: teams might just turn the ball over back and forth
20:14
Speaker 1: for the first ten minutes, but that is where I'd
20:16
Speaker 1: be looking. But definitely just completely staying away from this
20:19
Speaker 1: altogether because I was state, I mean, they are so
20:22
Speaker 1: so bad in the half court, really, they they've regressed
20:25
Speaker 1: so much from They obviously had a high at the
20:27
Speaker 1: beginning of the season. They were outperforming and then they
20:29
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20:31
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Speaker 1: net in West Virginia. So we got twelve seed U
22:29
Speaker 1: a B at the Blazer saw dude playing the five
22:33
Speaker 1: seed Houston eight and a half is the spread eight
22:36
Speaker 1: and a half? Yeah, u AB has got a guy
22:39
Speaker 1: point guard if you watched him in the Conference us
22:42
Speaker 1: A tournament, jelly Walker, Uh absolutely electric point guard. You
22:47
Speaker 1: know how hung forty in a triple overtime game against
22:50
Speaker 1: Middle Tennessee. But listen, I know everybody's gonna love jelly
22:53
Speaker 1: Walker and this is gonna be a very very trendy
22:56
Speaker 1: underdog because they're fun. I mean, who doesn't want to
22:58
Speaker 1: bet on a fun team? Who wants doesn't want to fund?
23:00
Speaker 1: Seemed to advance, But this is a really, really bad
23:02
Speaker 1: matchup for them. Houston despite losing some key pieces injury wise.
23:06
Speaker 1: Really on the season, they finished top five in the
23:09
Speaker 1: Ken Palm rankings and there are fifth they're they're five
23:12
Speaker 1: seed and their top eleven both adjusted defensive and offensive
23:16
Speaker 1: efficiency eleventh and defensively their eleventh feel in UH three
23:20
Speaker 1: point field well percentage allowed eighth and two point field
23:23
Speaker 1: percentage allowed top twenty in both half court and transition defense.
23:26
Speaker 1: They turn opponents over to high rate, and they're very
23:28
Speaker 1: good defensive rebounding teams. So I understand everybody loves jelly Walker.
23:33
Speaker 1: I understand he's fun, but this is a really really
23:36
Speaker 1: bad matchup for U A B two UH. Even though
23:39
Speaker 1: they took a ton of threes in this Commence USA Tournament,
23:41
Speaker 1: they're actually one of the lower three point rate teams
23:44
Speaker 1: in the entire country, only two to be exact, but
23:48
Speaker 1: they are heading over thirty eight percent of the season.
23:50
Speaker 1: Jelly Walker um u AB is actually one of the
23:53
Speaker 1: highest mid range jumper for frequency teams in all of
23:56
Speaker 1: college basketball, which is bad news against Houston, who is
23:59
Speaker 1: seventh at defending mid range jumpers. So the market has
24:02
Speaker 1: correctly priced this. I believe Houston being a minus eight
24:04
Speaker 1: and a half point favorite. You know, if Jelly Walker
24:07
Speaker 1: hot and they go up early. You might feel Houston
24:09
Speaker 1: had a better number, but I will ultimately passing. You know,
24:12
Speaker 1: you mentioned adjusted UH efficiency for offense and defense. Ryan
24:16
Speaker 1: Collinsworth has this incredible piece that he's done the past
24:20
Speaker 1: three seasons UH well the past four, but three final
24:23
Speaker 1: fours because we missed one about UH. It's it's based
24:27
Speaker 1: on a formgula that includes offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency, and
24:31
Speaker 1: marginal victory, and it has been incredibly accurate at predicting
24:37
Speaker 1: who would advance right and so based on this formula,
24:42
Speaker 1: the teams that heat pinpoints have made it to the
24:46
Speaker 1: sweet sixteen every single year, all sixteen teams advanced to
24:51
Speaker 1: the round of thirty two. Fourteen teams have made it.
24:54
Speaker 1: Of the teams that sort of fit this bill that
24:56
Speaker 1: he has predicted have made it to the sweet six
24:58
Speaker 1: team in the paste refinal UH tournaments that he's written
25:02
Speaker 1: about ten have made it to the Elite eight and five.
25:05
Speaker 1: So that's five twelve and made it to the final four.
25:07
Speaker 1: You mentioned Houston adjusted off into efficiency. They're one of
25:10
Speaker 1: the ten teams that qualifies, along with Gonzaga, Arizona, Kentucky, Baylor, Duke, Auburn,
25:19
Speaker 1: U C l A, Kansas, and Nova. So all teams
25:22
Speaker 1: that we've been talking about in both podcasts that we
25:24
Speaker 1: like to advance. You've got Kentucky and Zona in your
25:31
Speaker 1: final four if I'm not mistaken, So you know we're
25:36
Speaker 1: aligning the stars here a little bit. All right, we
25:38
Speaker 1: talked about Davidson, what a great match of that would
25:41
Speaker 1: be if they get to play Duke there against Michigan State.
25:44
Speaker 1: We've now went through the games. I will not be
25:46
Speaker 1: awake for Michigan State. I always think Thomazo and Michigan
25:49
Speaker 1: State is overrated and inflated in the tournament. There one
25:52
Speaker 1: or a half point favorites against Davidson, and you would
25:55
Speaker 1: be correct in this type of matchup. They are one
25:57
Speaker 1: of the more over eight teams in all of college basket.
25:59
Speaker 1: So uh, Like I mentioned earlier, there's a shot a
26:02
Speaker 1: site called shot quality that measures basically expected results for
26:06
Speaker 1: certain teams. They you know, keep track of what team's
26:09
Speaker 1: records should be based on the quality of shots they take,
26:11
Speaker 1: essentially expected points. So Michigan State finished the season, finished
26:15
Speaker 1: the season with the six ten record over the last
26:17
Speaker 1: sixteen games. But if you look at their shot quality
26:19
Speaker 1: record in games essentially they should have won. They only
26:21
Speaker 1: should have won one of them. They should have gone
26:23
Speaker 1: one in fifteen to end the season. So uh, for
26:27
Speaker 1: a team that is two in offensive efficiency in terms
26:32
Speaker 1: of their shot shot selection three thirty four and rim
26:35
Speaker 1: and three point rate, which are the two most valuable
26:37
Speaker 1: shots in half court offense, that has caused the Spartans
26:40
Speaker 1: two rank outside the top two hundred points per possession
26:43
Speaker 1: in both the half court and transition. So even though
26:46
Speaker 1: Davidson isn't that great of a defensive team, Michigan State
26:49
Speaker 1: is not going to be able to exploit their weaknesses. Uh.
26:51
Speaker 1: Davidson also top ten defensive rebounding teams, so there can
26:54
Speaker 1: be very few second chance points for the Spartans. If
26:57
Speaker 1: you haven't seen Davidson play one of the one of
26:59
Speaker 1: the best shooting teams in all of college basketball. They
27:02
Speaker 1: can just shoot anybody right out of the gym. I
27:04
Speaker 1: mean they finished the season shooting over thirty eight percent
27:07
Speaker 1: from behind the arc, you know, top six, and both
27:10
Speaker 1: catch and shooting off drible three pointers. They can really
27:12
Speaker 1: just do it all from behind the arc. The thing
27:14
Speaker 1: about Davidson I mentioned earlier, they played a very very
27:17
Speaker 1: slow tempo one of the highest frequency teams coming in
27:20
Speaker 1: the half court. Their third in points for possession and
27:22
Speaker 1: half court offense, while Michigan State is outside the top
27:25
Speaker 1: one in defending in the half court, so that that
27:28
Speaker 1: slow pace will be big in this matchup. Michigan State
27:31
Speaker 1: with UH plays primarily a lot of their possessions in transition.
27:35
Speaker 1: So I just absolutely love Davids's probably my favorite play
27:39
Speaker 1: in all of Friday. But there is one good storyline here.
27:42
Speaker 1: Davidson's starting point guard UH Foster Lawyer played at Michigan
27:46
Speaker 1: State for three years. He was a captain there, but
27:48
Speaker 1: he mainly was on the bench. Transferred to Davidson this season,
27:51
Speaker 1: is having a complete breakout years they're starting point guard
27:53
Speaker 1: and now has a big time revenge spot to get
27:56
Speaker 1: his old team back. And also Michigan State has some
27:59
Speaker 1: injury concerns. Point guard Tyson Walker is questionable for this one,
28:02
Speaker 1: so I really don't think the Wildcats should be underdogs
28:04
Speaker 1: at all here. So I love Davidson money line plus two.
28:08
Speaker 1: Whatever you want to do throwing around Robin Uh that's
28:11
Speaker 1: my best bet for the entire Friday. You like sorry,
28:16
Speaker 1: you like Davidson and make a run this year. Yeah, though,
28:18
Speaker 1: I I they are I believe around eight or around
28:22
Speaker 1: seven to six plus six eighty on fandable to make
28:24
Speaker 1: the Sweet sixteen. Thinking by Michigan State. They are not
28:27
Speaker 1: going to be plus six eight against Duke. I can
28:29
Speaker 1: tell you that much. So I think that's a wonderful,
28:32
Speaker 1: wonderful price for the Wildcats to to get to the
28:35
Speaker 1: Sweet six team. Next up, we got the fourteen seed
28:38
Speaker 1: Colgate Dental School verse three seed Wisconsin plus seven. Yeah,
28:45
Speaker 1: this is uh Wisconsin. Essentially it's a home game for
28:48
Speaker 1: them because it's gonna be in Milwaukee, but this Colgate
28:51
Speaker 1: team is going to give them a ton of problems.
28:53
Speaker 1: Similar to Providence Wisconsin, Wisconsin drastically overperformed. It was pretty
28:57
Speaker 1: lucky this season. They were fifteen and three in games
28:59
Speaker 1: to stuf out of by six points or less. Now
29:02
Speaker 1: you know, that is actually one of the best records
29:04
Speaker 1: in all of college basketball history. So an area around
29:07
Speaker 1: is like, well, they have the clutch, the clutch gene.
29:09
Speaker 1: You know, uh, they can win these type of close
29:12
Speaker 1: games well statistically and as you know Simon and Chad
29:15
Speaker 1: that these type of things tend to regress towards the mean,
29:19
Speaker 1: and you saw it in their last two games, when
29:20
Speaker 1: they lost games in Nebraska and Michigan State. Matchup wise,
29:24
Speaker 1: Colgate is the third most efficient three point shooting team
29:28
Speaker 1: in the entire country, their top twelve and points possession
29:30
Speaker 1: in both half court and transition. That transition number is
29:34
Speaker 1: key because Wisconsin. If this turns into attract me, Wisconsin
29:37
Speaker 1: is terrible in transition. Now, Wisconsin, offensively, they have the
29:41
Speaker 1: Big Ten Player of the Year, Johnny Davis, who makes
29:44
Speaker 1: up a ton of makes up for a ton of
29:47
Speaker 1: their real inefficiencies on offense. However, he's coming off a
29:50
Speaker 1: brutal ankle injury and he definitely wasn't a percent the
29:53
Speaker 1: Big Ten Tournament against Michigan State, went three of nineteen
29:55
Speaker 1: from the field only scored eleven points. If he is
29:58
Speaker 1: the Badgers are in big, big time trouble. Also, the
30:01
Speaker 1: way to beat Colgate you gotta get out in transition.
30:04
Speaker 1: They are one of the ten worst teams in college
30:06
Speaker 1: basketball and transition defense. But Wisconsin, they play a really
30:10
Speaker 1: slow pace there. They have the twelve highest frequency of
30:13
Speaker 1: their possessions coming in the half court, so they're not
30:15
Speaker 1: used to getting up in transition and beating Colgate are
30:18
Speaker 1: doing what they need to do to beat Colgates. So
30:20
Speaker 1: I love Colgate in this match, but another fun team
30:23
Speaker 1: to throw a money line round, Robin, I love them
30:26
Speaker 1: plus seven and a half loved them on the money line.
30:27
Speaker 1: This is a really, really bad matchup for Wisconsin in
30:31
Speaker 1: the first round, even though it is kind of a
30:33
Speaker 1: home game in Milwaukee. All right, now we're ending it
30:36
Speaker 1: with like a couple of you juicy spicy money lines.
30:39
Speaker 1: I like that last game TCU Seton Hall Seaton Hall
30:44
Speaker 1: short favorite here. Yeah, another game that's similar to the
30:47
Speaker 1: last game on Thursday. They might put you to bed
30:49
Speaker 1: earlier than expected. So if you're gonna beat TCU, you've
30:53
Speaker 1: got to keep them off the offensive glass. They are
30:56
Speaker 1: second in the country an offensive rebounding percentage, And while
30:59
Speaker 1: Seaton Hall isn't a great defensive rebounding team, they definitely
31:02
Speaker 1: have the size advantage down low, and they have some
31:05
Speaker 1: other advantage that I believe will be able to outweigh
31:08
Speaker 1: that advantage that TCU has on the boards. First off,
31:10
Speaker 1: Seton Hall is third in the country and field will
31:13
Speaker 1: percentage allowed at the rim, which is basically all TCU
31:16
Speaker 1: uh does. They try to get all their shot attempts
31:18
Speaker 1: closer to the rim because they have the eighth highest
31:20
Speaker 1: rim frequency rate in the nation, but they're in terms
31:24
Speaker 1: of their fieldal percentage there, so that's pretty big advantage
31:27
Speaker 1: for Seaton Hall even if they do give up those
31:29
Speaker 1: too many offensive rebounds of TCU can't put those back
31:32
Speaker 1: uh at the rim. Secondly, Seaton Hall seventh in the
31:35
Speaker 1: country in half court and points perossession all out and
31:38
Speaker 1: half court defense. TCU plays an incredibly slow pace with
31:41
Speaker 1: a lot of their possessions coming in the half court.
31:43
Speaker 1: So seton Hall. Even though they're not a great defensive
31:46
Speaker 1: rebounding team, I think this is a really good matchup
31:49
Speaker 1: for them against TCU, who, Yes, they'll have a lot
31:51
Speaker 1: offensive rebounds, but they're not really efficient at putting those backups.
31:55
Speaker 1: So I love Seaton Hall on the money line minus
31:58
Speaker 1: one ten. I think they should be uh closer to
32:01
Speaker 1: two or three point favorites. All Right, we went through
32:05
Speaker 1: every Thursday game in part one. We went through every
32:09
Speaker 1: Thursday game in part two. Reminder your final four texas
32:14
Speaker 1: to check out of the West, Kentucky out of the East,
32:17
Speaker 1: Arizona out of the South, and Iowa out of the Midwest.
32:21
Speaker 1: And you like Arizona to beat Kentucky in the National
32:26
Speaker 1: Championship Game. First title for Arizona. Sin is what it
32:32
Speaker 1: would be. B J. Countyham, you did a herculean job
32:37
Speaker 1: of lifting us through March madness. We appreciate it. Everyone
32:41
Speaker 1: should go read your stuff. Read all of our college
32:43
Speaker 1: basketball coverage. Action Network app, Action Network dot Com for
32:48
Speaker 1: Simon Hunter might beff my companion for Matt Mitchell, our producer,
32:55
Speaker 1: I am Chad Milman. This has been the favorite podcast
32:57
Speaker 1: from the Volume Podcast Network, down the Letter and Spotify,
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Speaker 1: and engage with with you next week. Until then, I
33:13
Speaker 1: love you. M