Latest / Bloomberg Intelligence / The Industries That Are Hiring Right Now: LaSalle CEO

Transcript

The Industries That Are Hiring Right Now: LaSalle CEO · Bloomberg Intelligence

0:01
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, along
0:04
Speaker 1: with my co host of Bonnie Quinn. Every business day
0:06
Speaker 1: we bring you interviews from ceo, market pros, and Bloomberg experts,
0:10
Speaker 1: along with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets
0:13
Speaker 1: Podcast on Apple podcast or wherever you listen to podcasts,
0:17
Speaker 1: and on Bloomberg dot com. It is time to bring
0:20
Speaker 1: in somebody now who knows a lot about this morning's
0:23
Speaker 1: job's report, because he's the one receiving the calls about
0:26
Speaker 1: job openings and trying to fill them as well. Tom
0:28
Speaker 1: gimbal Is, CEO of global staffing company lasal And Network.
0:32
Speaker 1: You weren't maybe exactly the person answering the phones, Tom,
0:35
Speaker 1: but I'm sure you have in the past. So Tom,
0:38
Speaker 1: what was the months like? I mean, we're all heartbroken
0:41
Speaker 1: for the people that are looking for jobs and can't
0:43
Speaker 1: find them. Is there much of that? You know? The
0:47
Speaker 1: John markets really strong. I think what we saw today
0:50
Speaker 1: is that we added over six hundred thousand jobs, the
0:53
Speaker 1: unemployment rate drop. Um, It's it's never going to be
0:57
Speaker 1: perfect for everybody, but this is a good report and
1:01
Speaker 1: we have to realize that we have the pandemic and
1:04
Speaker 1: that's hospitality workers, airlines and these restaurant workers that add
1:09
Speaker 1: to the unemployment number being what it is. And if
1:12
Speaker 1: we didn't have that and people were dining in and
1:15
Speaker 1: traveling and staying at hotels, would be a very different situation.
1:19
Speaker 1: It's fascinating, you know. You see the daily coronavirus case
1:23
Speaker 1: load just increase every day now and we're one twenty
1:26
Speaker 1: six thousand to concerned? Are you for all of the
1:28
Speaker 1: people that you know, Cole and all of the client's
1:30
Speaker 1: tom that we're going to see lockdowns again and business closings.
1:34
Speaker 1: You know, I'm not so sure that we're gonna we're
1:36
Speaker 1: gonna see the lockdown. I think what it'll be interesting
1:39
Speaker 1: to see now with the election hopefully somewhat over um
1:42
Speaker 1: and and when we get a new a new stimulus package,
1:46
Speaker 1: of of how that affects it. I think what we'll
1:48
Speaker 1: see is south of the Mason Dixon line, you're gonna
1:52
Speaker 1: have people being able to eat outside, and that'll be okay.
1:56
Speaker 1: I think when we get into the northern cities and
1:59
Speaker 1: what happens. I think that even with a Biden presidency,
2:02
Speaker 1: that there's people that the majority of the population that
2:05
Speaker 1: wants to have the opportunity to go out and go
2:07
Speaker 1: eat and have things open. So I'm fairly optimistic that
2:11
Speaker 1: that come January, UM, things are gonna open up a
2:14
Speaker 1: little bit. Yeah, what were the industries then, Tom, that
2:18
Speaker 1: you saw that we're picking up this month, So professional
2:21
Speaker 1: services really seem to be to be continued to grow.
2:24
Speaker 1: And what we're seeing is a lot of I T
2:26
Speaker 1: workers continuing to be a hotspot back office accounting and finance,
2:31
Speaker 1: and now with UM hospitals for the past few months
2:35
Speaker 1: being able to treat people for non COVID related UM
2:40
Speaker 1: surgeries and procedures, we've seen medical health care and back
2:44
Speaker 1: office in those settings as well as UH nurse practitioners,
2:48
Speaker 1: physician assistants, things like that really starting to pick up.
2:51
Speaker 1: We were just speaking with Lawrence Hower of Johns Hopkins
2:53
Speaker 1: University said that that portion of the you know, the
2:57
Speaker 1: labor work is at least those who have been working
2:59
Speaker 1: are absolutely exhausted. Tom. How many people out there you
3:04
Speaker 1: know are in need of a genuine break from this.
3:08
Speaker 1: I think that's really the interesting point you bring up, Bonny,
3:11
Speaker 1: and what what what that is is you've got a
3:13
Speaker 1: lot of people that are working standard jobs UM and
3:18
Speaker 1: that are going into their into their office, whether it's
3:21
Speaker 1: blue collar workers, healthcare professionals, UM, police, fireman, retail workers.
3:27
Speaker 1: And then you have white collar what I call white
3:30
Speaker 1: collar privilege is people who are at home in their house,
3:34
Speaker 1: they don't have to leave, and they're complaining because they're
3:37
Speaker 1: on zoom meetings all day. And we've got really a
3:40
Speaker 1: lack of empathy towards these people in the healthcare space,
3:44
Speaker 1: in the in the crucial worker category that we've got
3:49
Speaker 1: to get a lot more empathy for those people and
3:52
Speaker 1: and realize what's going on here. But unfortunately, when when
3:56
Speaker 1: the your time is called to work and and there
3:59
Speaker 1: aren't enough will in those areas, you have to do it. Yeah,
4:04
Speaker 1: And I mean especially if you don't know if your
4:05
Speaker 1: job is going to exist in a couple of months, right,
4:07
Speaker 1: because what's tragic is that there's absolutely no guarantee that
4:10
Speaker 1: one S coronavirus is under control that all of these
4:13
Speaker 1: people working on the front lines will have jobs because
4:16
Speaker 1: hospital systems might be bankrupt by then. Well, I I
4:21
Speaker 1: think that's a little bit of a drastic perspective body
4:24
Speaker 1: from the standpoint of I don't think the hospital systems
4:27
Speaker 1: will be bankrupt. I think that what we've seen with
4:29
Speaker 1: the governments, whether it be the airlines or the automotive industry,
4:33
Speaker 1: is that if there's big hospital chains and there's cash
4:36
Speaker 1: flow problems and revenue problems, that the government can provide
4:40
Speaker 1: and provide a stimulus package there. We're not going to
4:42
Speaker 1: let that aspect of our health care system go down.
4:46
Speaker 1: And I think that the jobs will be there and
4:48
Speaker 1: what we've seen. I've got a CEO of a surgical
4:51
Speaker 1: practice in the in the Chicago Land area and they
4:54
Speaker 1: are actually going to have a better year this year
4:57
Speaker 1: than ever before because the bill hold up of people
5:01
Speaker 1: over April, May and June just exploded July, August, September
5:05
Speaker 1: and October and they were doing so much more from
5:07
Speaker 1: people who wanted to get things taken care of. And
5:10
Speaker 1: I think we're going to continue to see that elective
5:11
Speaker 1: procedures are going to increase. And I think there's really
5:14
Speaker 1: a sense in this in society, from working class people
5:18
Speaker 1: to blue collar to executive is that people are are
5:21
Speaker 1: feeling now that you have to enjoy your life. And
5:24
Speaker 1: once COVID's down, I think that you're really going to
5:27
Speaker 1: see an increase in travel. You're gonna see an increase
5:30
Speaker 1: in tourism. You're gonna see an increase in elective procedures,
5:34
Speaker 1: that there's going to be an increase in auto sales.
5:36
Speaker 1: What we saw on the third quarter with GMS numbers
5:38
Speaker 1: which were really good, You're gonna see that consumer consumer
5:43
Speaker 1: purchasing is going to increase a lot in You know, Tom,
5:47
Speaker 1: what advice do you have for those out there who
5:50
Speaker 1: have been barely putting food on the table for their families,
5:53
Speaker 1: who may have had just a wonderful job before now,
5:56
Speaker 1: but weren't really con concerned about something like a pandemic. Uh.
6:00
Speaker 1: You know, I walk home from work and I see
6:03
Speaker 1: country lines, I see food lines, and I know that
6:05
Speaker 1: there are people in those lines that have never seen
6:08
Speaker 1: the inside of a country before. What do you say
6:11
Speaker 1: to those people trying to get up and put on
6:13
Speaker 1: a brafface every day? So I'd say, number one, Um,
6:17
Speaker 1: it will it will end. Number two. It's it's not
6:21
Speaker 1: that all dissimilar from two thousand eight UM in the
6:24
Speaker 1: financial crisis, when we thought actually the whole system was
6:28
Speaker 1: going to crash. And so there's there is the empathy
6:31
Speaker 1: side for all of us to realize that this population
6:34
Speaker 1: is different than was two thousand and eight, and we
6:37
Speaker 1: have to realize that the next time it could do us.
6:38
Speaker 1: So we've got to care for our fellow human beings.
6:41
Speaker 1: I think for those that are newly unemployed and living
6:44
Speaker 1: hand them out, there are jobs out there, and whether
6:47
Speaker 1: it be working in a warehouse for the holiday season,
6:51
Speaker 1: whether it be doing call center work, UM, whether it
6:54
Speaker 1: be um some sort of hospitality job outside. It may
6:58
Speaker 1: even be having to relocate to warmer weather um and
7:02
Speaker 1: and pick up seasonal work. But there are opportunities. You
7:05
Speaker 1: just can't have an entitlement aspect of this shouldn't be
7:08
Speaker 1: happening to me, because woe is me, won't get any
7:11
Speaker 1: of us through this. And my business lost a ton
7:13
Speaker 1: of business in April and May, but we didn't lay
7:16
Speaker 1: off a soul. We actually hired more. We fired people
7:20
Speaker 1: who weren't having a good attitude and good work ethic,
7:23
Speaker 1: and now our businesses at pre COVID levels. And I
7:25
Speaker 1: think if you stick with things and you believe that
7:29
Speaker 1: that you're doing everything you can, that there is opportunity
7:32
Speaker 1: out there, you just have to find it. Tom Wise
7:35
Speaker 1: words from man who's been in this business for a
7:37
Speaker 1: long long time and has much made millions of people
7:41
Speaker 1: two jobs, and they may not be the jobs that
7:44
Speaker 1: they were expecting to get or wanting to get. But
7:47
Speaker 1: I'm sure there's been a lot of happy tales coming
7:49
Speaker 1: out of LaSalle Network. So thank you very much for
7:51
Speaker 1: joining us again this month after the Job's report, which
7:54
Speaker 1: again showed that the economy is creating jobs. Maybe not
7:57
Speaker 1: as many as we've hoped, but still there was a
8:01
Speaker 1: lot of jobs created last month. Tom Gimball, CEO of
8:03
Speaker 1: global staffing company lasal Network, Well, I'm delighted to welcome
8:10
Speaker 1: you now. The chief equity investment Officer for Eaton Vents,
8:13
Speaker 1: Eddie Parkin joins us from Boston. With five seven plus
8:17
Speaker 1: billion dollars now sets under management at Eaton Vans, Eddie
8:21
Speaker 1: a lot on your shoulders. Would you have predicted what
8:25
Speaker 1: has happened so far and what happens next if you did, Vonnie,
8:29
Speaker 1: good to be with you. Thank you for your question. Yes,
8:32
Speaker 1: you know, coming into coming into the election period, the
8:35
Speaker 1: market was beginning to play with the idea that value
8:40
Speaker 1: stock small caps international stocks could begin to rotate back
8:44
Speaker 1: into favor um. The expectation that the market had was
8:48
Speaker 1: that there'd be a blue wave, meaning primarily that not
8:51
Speaker 1: only would Biden win the White House, but that you
8:53
Speaker 1: would have Democrats take both chambers of Congress. That second piece,
8:58
Speaker 1: the Senate, is what may not ultimately come through, and
9:01
Speaker 1: that I think is why on Wednesday you had sort
9:04
Speaker 1: of a return to how things have been most of
9:07
Speaker 1: this year and in prior years, where the mega cap
9:09
Speaker 1: tech stocks lead on Wednesday, but with UM, with the
9:13
Speaker 1: possibility that the Democrats could still take the Senate, the
9:17
Speaker 1: prediction markets, the betting markets have that at about with
9:21
Speaker 1: the likelihood that Biden will be the next president. UM,
9:23
Speaker 1: there is a sort of expectation of higher interest rates
9:28
Speaker 1: that would come from that, and then the jobs number
9:30
Speaker 1: today magnifies that. So everything is trading off of rates
9:33
Speaker 1: right now. The growth value trade has driven off of
9:36
Speaker 1: rates UH and inslation expectations, and so that really the
9:40
Speaker 1: tenure yield really is driving the rotation in the equity
9:43
Speaker 1: markets this week. Yes, so interesting. I just want to
9:46
Speaker 1: point out that if that did happen in the Senate,
9:48
Speaker 1: we wouldn't know until January because we'd be counting on
9:50
Speaker 1: runoff races. As far as I understand it. Also, I
9:53
Speaker 1: do want to point out that we're waiting on the
9:56
Speaker 1: Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raethinsburger to brief on the
9:59
Speaker 1: election in the work of the election officials right now.
10:02
Speaker 1: So this is an ever changing chess board even as
10:06
Speaker 1: we move through the hours today. If we do get
10:09
Speaker 1: a Biden presidency and the Senate stays read or we
10:12
Speaker 1: don't know about the Senate until next year, what will
10:15
Speaker 1: you tell your clients about tax and spending and regulatory policies.
10:19
Speaker 1: What will your assumptions be. Well, it makes it very
10:22
Speaker 1: uncertain right because we've got a little under two months
10:25
Speaker 1: until the end of the year, and normally you have
10:27
Speaker 1: financial advisors and clients doing a lot of end of
10:31
Speaker 1: year tax planning that includes charitable giving, it includes uh
10:35
Speaker 1: in a normal year, it would include take harvesting losses,
10:38
Speaker 1: taking taking tax losses, which is something that eaton VANCE
10:42
Speaker 1: and our affiliate Parametric does a lot of We we
10:44
Speaker 1: really focus on after tax returns, and so we were
10:47
Speaker 1: thinking this year, if the Democrats take the Senate, then
10:50
Speaker 1: it's likely you're going to have increases to capital gains
10:54
Speaker 1: tax rates next year, and it actually might make sense
10:57
Speaker 1: to reverse the normal protocol and take gains this year,
11:00
Speaker 1: pull your gains forward into a lower tax regime. But
11:03
Speaker 1: given that it looks like we won't know the makeup
11:05
Speaker 1: of the Senate until these two Georgia runoffs, which are
11:08
Speaker 1: going to happen. I believe it's January five. People are
11:10
Speaker 1: going to have to make end of year tax decisions
11:14
Speaker 1: with uncertain information about what the political makeup of the Senators,
11:17
Speaker 1: and I think that makes it particularly tricky this year,
11:20
Speaker 1: right particularly as I say, if we're seeing a stock
11:22
Speaker 1: market that continues to rally on this rotation, you know,
11:25
Speaker 1: I know you're rare incident in the value growth rotation.
11:28
Speaker 1: And we just heard our cross as that reports Aeroponza
11:30
Speaker 1: I talk about how the landscape changed just this week alone,
11:33
Speaker 1: from the beginning of the week to the end of
11:34
Speaker 1: the week. Where in value would you be looking for gains?
11:40
Speaker 1: I think value comes in many forms. So it comes
11:43
Speaker 1: in the form of cyclical stocks that could be industrials
11:46
Speaker 1: or commodity based stocks like energy, basic materials, all of
11:49
Speaker 1: which have lagged. It comes in the form of financial stocks,
11:52
Speaker 1: particularly the banks, where higher interest rates that that could
11:57
Speaker 1: come from higher fiscal spending and and and bigger fiscal
12:00
Speaker 1: deficits that would be good for the banks. Because of
12:03
Speaker 1: course they earn a spread between short and long dated
12:06
Speaker 1: interest rates um and then it comes in other kind
12:09
Speaker 1: of non traditional forms. So small caps stocks tend to
12:12
Speaker 1: be more value oriented and do well when values in favor,
12:16
Speaker 1: and international stocks, particularly Europe and Japan UH do do better.
12:21
Speaker 1: So I the divergence, the spread between what is cheap
12:25
Speaker 1: and what is expensive as as wide as it's ever been.
12:28
Speaker 1: So if you get the right catalyst, there could be
12:30
Speaker 1: a significant rotation into some of those areas I just mentioned. Yeah,
12:34
Speaker 1: So in that situation, then would you actually tell clients
12:37
Speaker 1: to put money to work or to rotate out of
12:40
Speaker 1: more growthy trades and into value right now? I would,
12:43
Speaker 1: and I would do it gradually. I wouldn't try and
12:46
Speaker 1: call the absolute bottom of the of the value market.
12:50
Speaker 1: I would do it over a period of time dollar
12:51
Speaker 1: cost average. I would also advise people to look at
12:55
Speaker 1: where your target allocations were at the beginning of this year.
12:58
Speaker 1: If you had a certain percentage of your money in
13:00
Speaker 1: US versus non US, or in large versus small, or
13:03
Speaker 1: growth versus value. The performance of the market this year
13:07
Speaker 1: has caused a lot of drift in your portfolio, even
13:09
Speaker 1: if you've done nothing. If you've just sat tight. Your
13:13
Speaker 1: portfolio now looks very different in terms of its nicks
13:16
Speaker 1: than it did on January one, So just you know,
13:18
Speaker 1: an easy way to do this is just to rebalance
13:21
Speaker 1: back to where you were at the beginning of the year,
13:23
Speaker 1: or rebalanced whatever targets your financial advisor advises, uh. And
13:27
Speaker 1: that is a way of taking a small step in
13:30
Speaker 1: the direction that I'm describing. Eddie. How much are you
13:33
Speaker 1: following the TikTok of you know, the actual ballots counted,
13:36
Speaker 1: and how much do something like this morning's jobs reports,
13:39
Speaker 1: which was okay but slightly disappointing. How much does that,
13:42
Speaker 1: you know, impact what you're watching. Well, of course we've
13:46
Speaker 1: you know, we've we're focused on the long term, but
13:48
Speaker 1: the election does have an impact on that, particularly if
13:51
Speaker 1: if you get new policies around taxes and regulations and
13:55
Speaker 1: and trade. So it is worth following. It's also very
13:57
Speaker 1: of course interesting, uh theater um. But it does seem
14:01
Speaker 1: likely to my eyes that that that Biden is going
14:04
Speaker 1: to pull this out. And the bigger question, of course,
14:06
Speaker 1: as we said earlier, is what what happens in the Senate? Yeah, exactly,
14:10
Speaker 1: And and as we both said, we may not know
14:13
Speaker 1: that on til January. So that'll be a fun couple
14:16
Speaker 1: of months. What gets done in the next two months
14:18
Speaker 1: if we have that kind of situation where Biden's president
14:21
Speaker 1: and there are court cases from the Trump campaign that
14:24
Speaker 1: are still live and we don't fully know the make
14:27
Speaker 1: of the Senate is a complete lame duck session until
14:30
Speaker 1: January and February. Well, it's normally a lame duck session
14:34
Speaker 1: anyway under normal circumstances. But of course you're going to
14:37
Speaker 1: have a lot of activity in the courts and in
14:40
Speaker 1: the media. I can't even begin to imagine how much
14:43
Speaker 1: money is going to pour into Georgia to try and
14:45
Speaker 1: win those two two seats if the if the Senate
14:48
Speaker 1: is on the line there. But I'm a little surprised, frankly,
14:51
Speaker 1: that the market is, you know, the market, the SMP
14:54
Speaker 1: five hundred month today, which is just six days old,
14:56
Speaker 1: is up uh seven and a half percent. And that's um,
14:59
Speaker 1: that's striking given all of this uncertainty, right Um, we're
15:03
Speaker 1: talking about court battles, we're talking about accusations of fraud.
15:06
Speaker 1: We're still not sure who the president will be. We
15:08
Speaker 1: don't know who's gonna have the Senate, and yet the
15:10
Speaker 1: market is rising in the face of that, and it's
15:13
Speaker 1: it's quite striking. What's the most major complaint or query
15:17
Speaker 1: that you're getting from your top clients? Now, your most
15:19
Speaker 1: wealthy clients complaint. I'm sure they complained sometimes to talk
15:25
Speaker 1: not about you guys, but just about the state of things. Yeah.
15:28
Speaker 1: I think there's been a lot of uncertainty, really going
15:30
Speaker 1: back to the April May time period where things looked
15:34
Speaker 1: so bad for the economy and yet the market bottomed
15:37
Speaker 1: in late March and began to rise. And I think
15:39
Speaker 1: there's just been Uh, it's taken a long time for
15:42
Speaker 1: people to get their minds around the idea that stocks
15:44
Speaker 1: can go up even when the economy is in tough shape.
15:47
Speaker 1: And I think it's a function of a couple of things.
15:48
Speaker 1: One is the fact that the market stock markets always
15:52
Speaker 1: looking forward. So if we can treaty is a one
15:54
Speaker 1: time right off on the earnings and economic front, then
15:58
Speaker 1: we can go back to the earnings power that companies
16:01
Speaker 1: have in the longer term. Obviously, if you're a small
16:03
Speaker 1: business who's really struggling that that doesn't sound very good.
16:06
Speaker 1: But for public equities, for large companies, they are able
16:09
Speaker 1: to weather through this, and there's hope that you know,
16:12
Speaker 1: once a vaccine comes, will be able to go back
16:14
Speaker 1: to normal and back to the earnings power these these
16:16
Speaker 1: companies have. And so that's part of it, and the
16:18
Speaker 1: other part it is just the aggressive said policy the
16:21
Speaker 1: FED basically saying we're here to backstop risk assets and uh.
16:24
Speaker 1: And that's that's another reason why stocks have been going
16:27
Speaker 1: up despite the economic news being relatively poor. Okay, Eddie,
16:31
Speaker 1: thank you, but let you back to your screens. I
16:33
Speaker 1: would imagine that will all be glued to them all
16:35
Speaker 1: day long. Eddie park In, his chief equity investment officer
16:38
Speaker 1: at Eton Vans in Boston, which is well more than
16:41
Speaker 1: five hundred billion dollars in assets under management. Bloomberg Opinion
16:45
Speaker 1: informed perspectives and expert data driven commentary on breaking news.
16:52
Speaker 1: I want to get to the Bloomberg giving in in
16:53
Speaker 1: just a moment, but first to update you on Larry
16:56
Speaker 1: Cudloe's comments just a few moments ago at the White House,
17:00
Speaker 1: President Trump's topic economic advisor said he expects a peaceful
17:03
Speaker 1: transfer of power if Biden wins the presidency. He was
17:08
Speaker 1: gaggling again outside the White House, and in this case
17:10
Speaker 1: he was responding to a question from CNBC, said, we
17:13
Speaker 1: abide by the rule of law, and so will this president.
17:16
Speaker 1: So he sounds fairly certain that there will be a
17:18
Speaker 1: peaceful transfer of power. He also mentioned that President Trump,
17:22
Speaker 1: Mitch McConnell, and Steve Lucian, the Treasury Secretary, still want
17:25
Speaker 1: a stimulus deal. We knew that McConnell had come out
17:28
Speaker 1: and said he wanted a deal now by the end
17:30
Speaker 1: of the year. But also, of course we're not quite
17:32
Speaker 1: sure about Nancy Pelosi or what her status is right now.
17:36
Speaker 1: So let's get to how everybody outside the United States
17:40
Speaker 1: is viewing this, and for that, let's bring in Bloomberg
17:42
Speaker 1: opinion columnist Leonel Loan, who covers the European Union in
17:45
Speaker 1: France typically but today is very very definitely covering the
17:50
Speaker 1: US election. He says, there are a numerous uncertainty surrounding
17:53
Speaker 1: the U s presidential election, but the good news for
17:55
Speaker 1: the European Union is that it's unofficial preferred candidate looks
17:58
Speaker 1: close to taking the White House. So Lionel Joe Biden,
18:01
Speaker 1: why is he the preferred candidate? Well, I think because
18:07
Speaker 1: he isn't Donald Trump, and because everything he has said
18:11
Speaker 1: points to a more productive and a more friendly tone
18:15
Speaker 1: over the over the next four years. If he becomes president,
18:18
Speaker 1: he said that he would rejoin the Climate Accords. He
18:21
Speaker 1: said that he would rejoin the the Iran Deal if
18:25
Speaker 1: if Iran complied, and that the w h O would
18:29
Speaker 1: also see more support as well. So I think in
18:31
Speaker 1: terms of the good news is that you are likely
18:34
Speaker 1: to get a much more stable and predictable and friendly
18:37
Speaker 1: transplantic relationship. However, I do think that there are going
18:41
Speaker 1: to be some uncertainties, and the Europeans in general will
18:45
Speaker 1: view this not as a kind of total return to
18:49
Speaker 1: life before Trump, right, because the Arapan Union in the
18:53
Speaker 1: in the last four years has had its own internal
18:55
Speaker 1: difficulties as well, and very many of them. So if
18:58
Speaker 1: it is a Biden presidency, and again this is hypothetical,
19:01
Speaker 1: we don't know yet that that's going to be the case.
19:03
Speaker 1: But if it were to be, what would Joe Biden's
19:06
Speaker 1: approach be regarding Europe versus Britain. How would he stay
19:10
Speaker 1: out of that fight? Well, I think we know enough
19:15
Speaker 1: to know that, firstly, Brexit is not some major strategic
19:19
Speaker 1: priority for the US, and we know that the Democrats
19:22
Speaker 1: in the House still very much want a deal of
19:25
Speaker 1: respect of Good Friday Agreement. We also know that Joe
19:28
Speaker 1: Biden sees Germany as the big unfair target of Trump's anger,
19:34
Speaker 1: and so I think there would definitely be a hand
19:36
Speaker 1: extended to Germany and the EUSE. So it's that that
19:39
Speaker 1: isn't so much the uncertainty. However, I think that France
19:42
Speaker 1: and Germany know that over the past twenty years, not
19:45
Speaker 1: just the past four years, there are fundamental differences between
19:48
Speaker 1: Europe and the US. The U S has more about
19:51
Speaker 1: China now containing China, cares more about pivoting to Asia,
19:54
Speaker 1: it has less. It has also more about domestic policy.
19:58
Speaker 1: Defending Europe and and paying for European security is less
20:02
Speaker 1: high a priority. And if you throw in things like
20:06
Speaker 1: tech policy, the role of the dollar versus the role
20:09
Speaker 1: of the euro, more kind of geoeconomic world, then I
20:14
Speaker 1: think these will tell you that that the Europeans are
20:18
Speaker 1: not going to just sit around for the next four
20:20
Speaker 1: years and and assume that everything will just revert to
20:23
Speaker 1: how it was before Trump. So leonel beyond sort of
20:27
Speaker 1: you know, better relations with multilateral and trans national organizations
20:34
Speaker 1: and also treaties of course, like the Paris Treaty Beyond that,
20:37
Speaker 1: what could the European Union use the United States for? So?
20:42
Speaker 1: I think the big silver lining here is that China
20:47
Speaker 1: is the priority that is shared by both Democrats and
20:50
Speaker 1: Republicans and even the EU. So I think that the
20:54
Speaker 1: EU as a trading block, that's where its power lies.
20:58
Speaker 1: And I think the EU should move towards the US
21:01
Speaker 1: and Biden say, look, we can help really raise the
21:06
Speaker 1: bar on for example, subsidies and unfair trade practices from China,
21:10
Speaker 1: but in return, they should encourage the US to let
21:14
Speaker 1: you build its own institutions, take on more of its
21:17
Speaker 1: defense responsibilities, and also become more economically assertive again against
21:24
Speaker 1: Silicon Valley companies and defending the role of the EURO globally.
21:29
Speaker 1: I think that could be a potential kind of trade
21:31
Speaker 1: because China looms so large in the American psyche. Yeah,
21:35
Speaker 1: it's interesting because, as you say, China would be the
21:38
Speaker 1: third party in the relationship at that point if there
21:40
Speaker 1: were to be, you know, a Joe Biden and European
21:42
Speaker 1: Union ally ship, if you like, what do you think
21:46
Speaker 1: China would do in that scenario? Would China try to
21:48
Speaker 1: ally with everybody or would China try to play one
21:53
Speaker 1: off the other well, I definitely think that China in
22:00
Speaker 1: terms of trade is seeing more pressure everywhere. However, if
22:05
Speaker 1: you look at how China is reacting to, for example,
22:08
Speaker 1: COVID nineteen, you can you can clearly see a kind
22:11
Speaker 1: of post COVID world happening, where again geopolitics and gew
22:16
Speaker 1: economics is even more important than it than it was before.
22:20
Speaker 1: China may well tried to divide Europe as it always has,
22:24
Speaker 1: and it may succeed, but I really think that you
22:27
Speaker 1: as a whole realizes that it has a lot to
22:30
Speaker 1: gain from getting more tough on China defending its own market.
22:36
Speaker 1: Beyond looking to the United States and who is the
22:38
Speaker 1: next president. Europe internally has plenty of problems, and one
22:44
Speaker 1: of the problems is that a lot of voters in
22:46
Speaker 1: Europe are unhappy and there is a huge strain of
22:48
Speaker 1: populism which is only gaining steam in places like France
22:52
Speaker 1: and Eastern Europe and Italy and really you know, Britain,
22:56
Speaker 1: not that that's really Europe anymore, but there are so
22:59
Speaker 1: many countries these that are seeing unhappiness of the polls.
23:03
Speaker 1: Do we suddenly see a shift in post post this
23:06
Speaker 1: election here in the US to watching very closely what
23:09
Speaker 1: happens in Europe in terms of strife and you know,
23:13
Speaker 1: protests and difficulty and demonstrations. I'm honestly not sure we
23:18
Speaker 1: we can extrapolate too much. I do think that Brexit
23:21
Speaker 1: and Trump sort of arrived like a crash, and they
23:26
Speaker 1: seem to be running out of steam. In that that
23:28
Speaker 1: I see is as connected. However, a lot of the
23:31
Speaker 1: situations you describe are to do with many things, country
23:36
Speaker 1: specific things, and and they probably are going to get
23:39
Speaker 1: worse again as a result of the economic inequality that
23:42
Speaker 1: will take place after a COVID nineteen, given that the
23:45
Speaker 1: second wave is still battering these countries. So I'm really
23:49
Speaker 1: not sure we can extrapolate that much. However, again, I
23:52
Speaker 1: do think that Europe and a more assertive Europe and
23:56
Speaker 1: a more integrated block is going to be seen as
23:58
Speaker 1: the answer to a lot of these issues by the
24:02
Speaker 1: governments very really, And we're out of time. But what
24:06
Speaker 1: happens to Angle America? How long more is she chancellor for?
24:10
Speaker 1: And who takes over? Oh? Well, this is this is
24:13
Speaker 1: a big question. That the race to succeed her has begun,
24:18
Speaker 1: and the trans Atlantic relationship is going to be part
24:21
Speaker 1: of that. Again, I do think that Germany is going
24:24
Speaker 1: to be less inclined to simply just take this constant
24:29
Speaker 1: pro American stance and assume that everything we just go
24:32
Speaker 1: on as before. I think France and Germany are going
24:34
Speaker 1: to become a lot more aligned on this point that
24:36
Speaker 1: Europeans still off its own interest. Leonel, thank you so
24:40
Speaker 1: much for joining us today. It's always a fascinating conversation
24:43
Speaker 1: with Lionel Lauren, who is a Bloomberg opinion and colonists
24:47
Speaker 1: typically covering Europe and France and European affairs for US,
24:50
Speaker 1: and we thank him. Stay tuned next hour more election
24:54
Speaker 1: count updates. Right, it is time to bring in Lauren Sour.
25:01
Speaker 1: We love chatting with her. She knows everything about the
25:04
Speaker 1: coronavirus and where the research is at, where the potential
25:08
Speaker 1: for vaccines is that, and so on. Lauren is now
25:10
Speaker 1: Associate Professor of Emergency Medicine at John's Hopkins University, and
25:14
Speaker 1: we really thank her for giving us sometime. Lauren, we're
25:17
Speaker 1: up to sid cases a day in the United States.
25:22
Speaker 1: How much further can we raise from here? Is this exponential? Yet?
25:29
Speaker 1: I think that's what it is on the top of
25:31
Speaker 1: everyone's mind right now. I mean, you know, to go
25:34
Speaker 1: from a hundred thousand for the first time, UM and
25:38
Speaker 1: then one day later have over a hundred and twenty
25:40
Speaker 1: thousand new infections. It's it's really really concerning to see, UM.
25:45
Speaker 1: And I think the fear is that we are seeing
25:49
Speaker 1: exponential growth and we're not doing anything to change that.
25:53
Speaker 1: You know, there's no new there's no new approaches to
25:56
Speaker 1: lockdowns or um you know, uh, new strata to jus
26:00
Speaker 1: for masking. There these these very basic public health interventions
26:04
Speaker 1: are not being pushed any harder than they were yesterday
26:06
Speaker 1: or the day before, the day before that. And I think, um,
26:10
Speaker 1: we're going to see the impact of that for a
26:11
Speaker 1: long time to come. We're obviously, you know, several months
26:15
Speaker 1: out from March when we didn't even know what we
26:18
Speaker 1: would need in in a case like a pandemic, and
26:20
Speaker 1: then we realized that we were short on PPE, we
26:22
Speaker 1: were short on you know, ventilators, we were short on
26:25
Speaker 1: hospital beds. Where are we now still short? Are there
26:30
Speaker 1: states where we're still short and and can other states
26:33
Speaker 1: helped or are we still at a loss for some
26:36
Speaker 1: of these these these necessary items. I think we've made
26:39
Speaker 1: a lot of progress in ventilator access and in PPE.
26:44
Speaker 1: But we're moving back into respiratory virus season UM, and
26:48
Speaker 1: we're moving back into the winter where people will be
26:50
Speaker 1: more indoors, will be on the other side of the
26:53
Speaker 1: holidays soon enough, and we have the potential to see
26:55
Speaker 1: UM an exceptional number of case growth across the United States.
26:59
Speaker 1: You know, when we saw those UM severe resource constraints
27:04
Speaker 1: and some reasons of the country, it was just that
27:07
Speaker 1: some regions of the country, some specific areas that were
27:09
Speaker 1: hardest hit. But the potential for places all across the
27:13
Speaker 1: country to be very hard hit and and need these
27:16
Speaker 1: surge capacity and resource scarce resource issues UM happen is
27:22
Speaker 1: more concerning because when it's just a few a few
27:26
Speaker 1: places in the country, you can move resources from one
27:28
Speaker 1: side of the country to the next. Right, you can
27:30
Speaker 1: borrow from a neighbor you can buy you know, a
27:33
Speaker 1: neighboring state. You can't do that when everyone across the
27:36
Speaker 1: country is experiencing resource constraints and bed capacity issues and
27:41
Speaker 1: personnel gaps. Yeah, it's terrifying. And on the personnel gaps,
27:45
Speaker 1: I mean hospitals have been under pressure and under strain
27:48
Speaker 1: because people have been putting off other kinds of you know, surgeries,
27:52
Speaker 1: elective surgeries and so on, and that's that's also causing
27:55
Speaker 1: health problems. We haven't even got to that still have
27:58
Speaker 1: to deal with coronavirus. But our hospitals staffed enough? Do
28:01
Speaker 1: they have enough funding? No? I think the answer to
28:05
Speaker 1: those questions is just now. I think the staffing um
28:09
Speaker 1: has ramped up, and there's been some unique staff staffing
28:13
Speaker 1: strategies that hospitals have implemented, but um, you know, nurses,
28:18
Speaker 1: respiratory therapist positions. Um, we're going to need all these
28:22
Speaker 1: an increase in all these staff to manage any increase
28:25
Speaker 1: in in search capacities. And that's just not in the hospitals.
28:28
Speaker 1: That's in long term care facilities, that's in field hospitals,
28:32
Speaker 1: that's in outpatient centers. When you see the volume of
28:35
Speaker 1: patients increase so significantly, we're going to need staffing and
28:39
Speaker 1: resources to support all that. And we can't just borrow
28:43
Speaker 1: from other areas when all of the areas are affected. Yeah,
28:47
Speaker 1: I mean, it's it's pretty terrifying. Back in March and
28:51
Speaker 1: I was in New York City. You know, after the
28:53
Speaker 1: first couple of weeks, people were going around like zombies
28:56
Speaker 1: and I don't mean that in you know, any disrespectful
28:59
Speaker 1: way to those who were actually sick, but even healthy
29:02
Speaker 1: people were so shell shocked from what was going on
29:05
Speaker 1: and the thousands of deaths and just the pain. Are
29:09
Speaker 1: we going to see that in certain areas of the country,
29:11
Speaker 1: including New York again, Lauren, Yeah, I think we're all
29:14
Speaker 1: very worried about that. I mean, you know, it's it's
29:17
Speaker 1: potentially the same experience, but with a much more exhausted
29:20
Speaker 1: and much more overworked and much more overwhelmed UM workforce
29:24
Speaker 1: and so and and not just workforce, just community members, right,
29:28
Speaker 1: so everyone is experiencing this trauma together, um, and without
29:32
Speaker 1: the mitigating factors that we talked about in the beginning
29:34
Speaker 1: of our conversation. UM, it's going to keep increasing and
29:37
Speaker 1: people are going to continue to be affected, and we're
29:40
Speaker 1: going to continue to bear both the physical and emotional
29:44
Speaker 1: and mental health tool that this is going to enact
29:46
Speaker 1: on our population for years to come. I mean, UM,
29:49
Speaker 1: the healthcare workforce is absolutely exhausted, and to see no
29:53
Speaker 1: end in sight and the cases increasing like this is
29:56
Speaker 1: it has the potential to be really overwhelming. We have
29:59
Speaker 1: to put strategy is in place to protect our health
30:01
Speaker 1: care workers, not just physically um and in safety mechanisms,
30:05
Speaker 1: but also in their mental and emotional health. I can
30:07
Speaker 1: absolutely only imagine, Lauren, finally and briefly, if it is
30:11
Speaker 1: Joe Biden who is designated the next president, does anything
30:15
Speaker 1: change in the coming months. I mean, you know, Ken,
30:18
Speaker 1: Joe Biden make any kind of a difference in terms
30:22
Speaker 1: of the policy, given that he would actually be president
30:25
Speaker 1: until January. Yeah, I think he can begin to make
30:29
Speaker 1: the difference so that that concrete steps can be taken
30:32
Speaker 1: as soon as he takes the presidency of the Office
30:34
Speaker 1: of the Presidency and um, I think the hope is
30:37
Speaker 1: just that there's no detrimental impact over the next few
30:40
Speaker 1: months as the transition happens. But you can see him
30:43
Speaker 1: already starting to build the teams with people that he's
30:46
Speaker 1: going to use to respond to the crisis that we're in.
30:50
Speaker 1: So I think that there's good signs that he's going
30:52
Speaker 1: to implement as soon as he can, strategies to change
30:55
Speaker 1: the course of the pandemic. But I think it is
30:58
Speaker 1: a little bit of a wait and see situation. Lauren.
31:01
Speaker 1: Her thoughts are with you and your staff and everybody
31:03
Speaker 1: else who is battling this on every front. Laurence Sour
31:07
Speaker 1: is Associated Professor of Emergency Medicine at Johns Hopkins University,
31:12
Speaker 1: and she joins US weekly and more than that, in fact,
31:14
Speaker 1: on Bloomberg to give us updates on the situation on
31:17
Speaker 1: twenty six thousand cases. Thanks for listening to Bloomberg Markets podcast.
31:22
Speaker 1: You can subscribe and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts
31:25
Speaker 1: or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm Bonnie Quinn. I'm
31:29
Speaker 1: on Twitter at Bonnie Quinn, and I'm Paul Sweeney. I'm
31:32
Speaker 1: on Twitter at pt Sweeney. Before the podcast, you can
31:34
Speaker 1: always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio