Latest / Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar / 5/7/26: Saudis Turn On Trump Over Project Freedom, Trump Says $8 Gas Is Worth It For Iran War

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5/7/26: Saudis Turn On Trump Over Project Freedom, Trump Says $8 Gas Is Worth It For Iran War · Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

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Speaker 1: Hey guys, Saga and Crystal here.
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Speaker 1: dot com. Good morning, everybody, Happy Thursday. I have an
0:35
Speaker 1: amazing show for buddy today what with Crystal.
0:37
Speaker 2: Indeed, we do some pretty fascinating revelations. So Trump was
0:41
Speaker 2: apparently forced to back off of quote unquote Operation Freedom
0:44
Speaker 2: in the straight ofform moves after Saudi Arabia and Kuwait
0:46
Speaker 2: Bo said you cannot use our countries for your military maneuver.
0:51
Speaker 2: So pretty stunning revelations there will take you through the
0:54
Speaker 2: very latest, of course, in terms of the Iran War.
0:56
Speaker 2: Trump is also out saying that even two hundred dollars
0:58
Speaker 2: a barrow would be worth it for all of the
1:00
Speaker 2: glorious things that are being achieved in this insane war.
1:03
Speaker 2: A billionaire says that tax the rich is equivalent to
1:07
Speaker 2: basically the end word or other racial slurs.
1:10
Speaker 3: So that's quite a take there, and walla, we'll get
1:13
Speaker 3: to that. Yes, exactly, it's just.
1:15
Speaker 2: As bad as calling for Palestinian freedom in his view.
1:19
Speaker 2: An alleged Epstein suicide note has been released. We told
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Speaker 2: you last week about the existence of this note. Now
1:26
Speaker 2: it has been made public, you can see for yourself
1:29
Speaker 2: and judge what you make of it. Glenn Greenwald is
1:31
Speaker 2: going to join us to talk about the ADL's new
1:34
Speaker 2: anti Semitism report and really reflect on his own status
1:37
Speaker 2: as a self hating Jew. And we also have him
1:39
Speaker 2: on to talk about a horrifically cruel bill that just
1:43
Speaker 2: passed the House that would require all pigs that are
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Speaker 2: being raised for human consumption to live in creates that
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Speaker 2: are so small they can't even turn around, undercutting state
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Speaker 2: legislation that has been passed to try to avoid exactly
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Speaker 2: that fate. So he's always a great animal rights activisms
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Speaker 2: or advocate and has been you know, really following these
2:01
Speaker 2: stories and a couple other ones.
2:02
Speaker 1: Something I've always respected about Gwenn and excited for him
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Speaker 1: really helps other people find the show. But as Crystal said,
2:23
Speaker 1: let's go and start with that blockbuster news out of
2:25
Speaker 1: Saudi Arabia. Let's put this up here on the screen.
2:28
Speaker 1: Trump's abrupt u turn on the plan to reopen the
2:31
Speaker 1: Straight of hor Moves came after backlash from allies. Saudi Arabia,
2:35
Speaker 1: a key golf ally suspended the US military's ability to
2:39
Speaker 1: use its bases and airspace to carry out the operation.
2:43
Speaker 1: Trump's abrupt reversal came specifically on Project Freedom on Sunday afternoon. Now,
2:48
Speaker 1: initially the market and others thought that this was a
2:51
Speaker 1: sign or sorry the announcement of Project Freedom, only for
2:54
Speaker 1: two days later to back off of it. Now, the
2:57
Speaker 1: abrupt dismissal was initially thought by the market, by US
3:00
Speaker 1: and others as Wow, So talks with the Iranians must
3:03
Speaker 1: be really, really serious. This must be progressing in a
3:06
Speaker 1: very good direction, because why else would you call off
3:10
Speaker 1: an operation which twenty four hours before the Secretary of
3:13
Speaker 1: Defense and the Chairman of the Jointiees were announcing in
3:16
Speaker 1: their bluster and in all their glory. Well, it turns
3:19
Speaker 1: out that in a call between Trump and the Saudi
3:22
Speaker 1: Crown Priss Mohammed bin Salman, the issue not only was
3:26
Speaker 1: not resolved, but the KSA stood their ground, and the
3:29
Speaker 1: reasoning behind it is that they said they would not
3:31
Speaker 1: allow the military to fly aircraft from the Prince Sultan
3:34
Speaker 1: air Base southeast of Riod or fly through any Saudi
3:38
Speaker 1: airspace to support the effort. We also need to shout
3:41
Speaker 1: out Ryan Grimm, who reported and apparently had the story
3:44
Speaker 1: of sitting on it didn't get there just fast enough
3:47
Speaker 1: to the issue, But what he found out was that
3:50
Speaker 1: Kuwait also had told the US that they cannot use
3:54
Speaker 1: their airspace or their bases to conduct the operation. And
3:57
Speaker 1: obviously this is proof beyond any measure that the Iranian
4:02
Speaker 1: policy of horizontal escalation and of punishing Gulf allies has
4:07
Speaker 1: been tremendously successful because what the Saudis, the Kuwaiti saw
4:12
Speaker 1: was with the announcement of Project Freedom, the immediate targeting
4:15
Speaker 1: of the Fujeira oil plant in the UAE, the only
4:19
Speaker 1: one which they're able to export oil from outside of
4:22
Speaker 1: the Strait of horror moves. Saudi Arabia sits in terror
4:26
Speaker 1: at attacks on the East West Pipeline and the yanbu
4:28
Speaker 1: Oi facility which is in the Red seat. In addition
4:31
Speaker 1: to who these which remember did not ever join the war.
4:34
Speaker 1: Even with shutting out the entire straight of horror moves,
4:36
Speaker 1: Kuwait we got the news, has not exported a single
4:39
Speaker 1: barrel of oil in thirty days. I mean, look, they
4:42
Speaker 1: have plenty of money, but nobody has that much money
4:45
Speaker 1: to sustain your economy in a total thirty days shutdown
4:48
Speaker 1: of the vast amount of your import So these two
4:51
Speaker 1: things combined show actually much less confidence I think in
4:55
Speaker 1: any of these talks that are allegedly happening between Iran
4:58
Speaker 1: and in Washington, and instead a curtailing and a really
5:01
Speaker 1: humiliation of the American Empire, because what we've also seen
5:05
Speaker 1: is not only now a rejection of these US traditional
5:08
Speaker 1: allies the Gulf and Kuwait, but we've been unable to
5:11
Speaker 1: protect them sufficiently that they feel okay with letting us that.
5:14
Speaker 1: And also the fact that we have our aircraft carriers
5:16
Speaker 1: and others outside of range of Iranian drones and missiles.
5:20
Speaker 1: But that means that you are very reliant on these
5:22
Speaker 1: ground air refueling and many of these bases and others.
5:25
Speaker 1: They took tremendous damage throughout the war, which we also
5:29
Speaker 1: have some images of which will show people later in
5:31
Speaker 1: the show.
5:31
Speaker 2: This is a wild insight into the real dynamics that
5:35
Speaker 2: underpin this war. It also really calls into question for me,
5:38
Speaker 2: those reports that Saudi was alongside Israel also pushing for
5:42
Speaker 2: this war to start. It's still possible that they were
5:45
Speaker 2: and just didn't realize how extreme the backlash would be.
5:48
Speaker 3: But I think this.
5:49
Speaker 2: Undercut some of this notion that Saudi Arabia has been
5:51
Speaker 2: a real cheerleader. There was also some reporting that while
5:54
Speaker 2: the UAE was being really hurt economically, Saudi Arabia had
5:57
Speaker 2: actually been able to export enough oil and with the
6:00
Speaker 2: freemium that they were actually making money. But if you
6:03
Speaker 2: look at the overall dynamics and you know how significant
6:06
Speaker 2: of a change this is.
6:07
Speaker 3: Going to be in the region.
6:08
Speaker 2: With Iran getting control of the straight over miz you
6:10
Speaker 2: could see that Iran's power in the region and globally
6:14
Speaker 2: is rising. And since Saudi is the primary rival of Iran,
6:17
Speaker 2: especially regionally, this has ended up being a disaster for
6:21
Speaker 2: them as well. But for them and Kuwait to come
6:23
Speaker 2: to us and say, oh, you're a little project freedom
6:26
Speaker 2: thing that you didn't apparently bother to green light with us, No,
6:30
Speaker 2: we're not doing it, that is a stunning rebuke. And
6:34
Speaker 2: Iran has said since the beginning of this war, and
6:37
Speaker 2: really before that as well, but really, you know, credibly,
6:39
Speaker 2: since the beginning of this war, has said that one
6:41
Speaker 2: of their goals is US withdrawal from the region, and
6:45
Speaker 2: especially from Saudi Arabia, because you know, the presence of
6:47
Speaker 2: US army in you know, the Holy Land for them
6:50
Speaker 2: is a particular issue of concern. But in any case,
6:54
Speaker 2: that seemed so fanciful at the beginning of this war,
6:58
Speaker 2: and now between Saudi Kuwait saying this is a problem
7:03
Speaker 2: for us. We don't want you operating from our soil.
7:05
Speaker 2: And when you combine that with the fact that our
7:08
Speaker 2: bases have been basically obliterated in the region. It no
7:12
Speaker 2: longer seems like such an incredibly preposterous or far fetched outcome.
7:17
Speaker 2: We have yet another report. In fact, I'm not sure
7:19
Speaker 2: what element this is. I think it's a seven all
7:22
Speaker 2: the way at the bottom that we can put on
7:23
Speaker 2: the screen. This yet another report, this one from the
7:26
Speaker 2: Washington Post about how many more US military.
7:29
Speaker 3: Assets were hit then reported.
7:31
Speaker 2: This is again according to satellite images CNN how to report. Previously,
7:35
Speaker 2: there was another one I think maybe NBC News before
7:37
Speaker 2: that that talked about the number of bases that had
7:39
Speaker 2: been hit. We could tell anecdotally because the soldiers had
7:42
Speaker 2: to be removed from the bases and housed in civilian hotels.
7:46
Speaker 2: That probably saved a lot of lives, actually, the fact
7:49
Speaker 2: that they were evacuated off of these bases, because apparently
7:52
Speaker 2: these bases were just hit with you know, extraordinary precision
7:56
Speaker 2: at a level that the US military was never able
7:58
Speaker 2: to anticipate. So when you add that together with the
8:01
Speaker 2: Saudis and the Karaiti saying no, we're done here, and
8:04
Speaker 2: there was also some indication that the Omanis were maybe
8:06
Speaker 2: not too psyched about what was going on either, and
8:09
Speaker 2: Trump having to completely change his entire approach at a
8:13
Speaker 2: moment's notice, after Hegseth and dan Kin and Rubio had
8:18
Speaker 2: all gone out and done press briefings to tout Project Freedom,
8:22
Speaker 2: that he had to make that u turn because he
8:25
Speaker 2: no longer had cooperation from his allies in the region.
8:27
Speaker 3: It's pretty devastating.
8:28
Speaker 1: Yeah, can we go back to those bases. I believe
8:30
Speaker 1: we have some more images, just because they're so shocking,
8:33
Speaker 1: I think in nature if we can go and put
8:35
Speaker 1: them up there on the screen from A seven, and
8:37
Speaker 1: if we can edit some of these later in posts.
8:40
Speaker 1: But what you can actually see is that the Iranians
8:43
Speaker 1: had originally released some images. What they then did is
8:47
Speaker 1: they used satellite imagery later on to verify them. Now,
8:50
Speaker 1: these actually satellite images are only from March eighth, so
8:54
Speaker 1: almost two months old in some cases to even show
8:57
Speaker 1: you what the damage is. But what you see is
9:00
Speaker 1: that the vast majority, let's say, in one case, of
9:02
Speaker 1: fuel bladders which were stored in Kuwait were damaged. And
9:06
Speaker 1: the images that I'm looking at, it's almost all of them. Yeah,
9:09
Speaker 1: you can see them actually in the bottom right corner, right,
9:12
Speaker 1: and so the next one, what you're all seeing are
9:15
Speaker 1: individual parts of bases where you can see tremendous amounts
9:19
Speaker 1: of damage either to the roofed airfields, to fuel storage areas,
9:23
Speaker 1: to airplane hangars. And what this demonstrates also is why
9:27
Speaker 1: the US was so reliant even thus far, just on
9:31
Speaker 1: these bases, because they still need these because the aircraft
9:33
Speaker 1: carriers and others are so far away that they're not
9:36
Speaker 1: able to support the bombing mission in the way that
9:39
Speaker 1: they want and project freedom. Make no mistake, you know,
9:42
Speaker 1: we've talked about the blockade and others. This takes a
9:47
Speaker 1: tremendous amount of energy and military resources. Just to give
9:51
Speaker 1: you an example, let's put a one up there on
9:53
Speaker 1: the screen. Just yesterday, as all the talks were apparently
9:56
Speaker 1: getting good, the Central Command released this Forces disabled a
10:01
Speaker 1: vessel in the Gulf of Oman attempting to violate the blockade.
10:05
Speaker 1: They said, US Force is operating in the Gulf enforced
10:08
Speaker 1: blockade measures by enabling an Iranian flagged the Unlaiden oil tanker,
10:13
Speaker 1: which was attempting to sail toward an Iranian port. Sentcom
10:17
Speaker 1: said that they saw the ship called the Hasna, as
10:20
Speaker 1: it translated international waters to the port Iranian port on
10:24
Speaker 1: the Gulf of Oman American forces then issued multiple warnings
10:27
Speaker 1: and informed the flag vessel who was in violation of
10:30
Speaker 1: a blockade. After the crew failed to comply, forces disabled
10:33
Speaker 1: the tanker's rudder, firing several rounds from a twenty millimeter
10:37
Speaker 1: cannon gun on a US Navy FA eighteen super Hornet,
10:41
Speaker 1: which was launched from the USS Abraham Lincoln. So just
10:45
Speaker 1: again to keep in mind, like how much military asset
10:47
Speaker 1: this is taking. You need helicopters, you need planes, you
10:50
Speaker 1: need constant surveillance, you need all of these ships that
10:54
Speaker 1: are there. This is why in the old days people
10:55
Speaker 1: would often talk about no fly zones. He'll remember and
10:58
Speaker 1: it's like, Oh, it's just so simple. It's like, oh,
10:59
Speaker 1: is it that simple? Or do you need to have
11:01
Speaker 1: aircraft circling in place twenty four hours a day. It's
11:03
Speaker 1: crazy expensive.
11:04
Speaker 2: Well, and this introduces another factor and another consideration for
11:10
Speaker 2: Trump if he in terms of the options that he's
11:12
Speaker 2: evaluating here for Iran, because we hadn't really considered that
11:15
Speaker 2: the Gulf allies may pull the plug and we really
11:19
Speaker 2: can't continue to prosecute a war or even the economic
11:23
Speaker 2: blockade fully without their support. And I think another important
11:27
Speaker 2: thing that happened was these strikes on the UA. Now,
11:30
Speaker 2: there are some questions about whether that was Iran. Iran
11:33
Speaker 2: says it wasn't them. Even the UA seems to be
11:35
Speaker 2: unsure whether it was Iran or whether it was Saudi.
11:38
Speaker 2: There's some possibility that the UAE had struck Saudi's oil
11:42
Speaker 2: infrastructure and Saudi struck them in retaliation. Unclear whether that's
11:45
Speaker 2: happened or not. But what we do know is that
11:48
Speaker 2: UA was struck in very sensitive ways with a significant
11:52
Speaker 2: missile and drone barrage. And what did the US do?
11:56
Speaker 2: We were like, that's no big deal, don't worry about it.
11:59
Speaker 2: So what message is that too? Which I'm glad they did.
12:01
Speaker 2: You know, I'm glad it didn't lead to a gigantic escalation.
12:04
Speaker 2: But if you're the Saudist and you're looking at this,
12:06
Speaker 2: you're like, wait, what do you mean no big deal?
12:09
Speaker 3: What do you mean like.
12:10
Speaker 2: They're targeting their most critical oil infrastructure that their entire.
12:15
Speaker 3: Economy is based on.
12:16
Speaker 2: UA is so screwed right now, d Bay, the hotel
12:20
Speaker 2: reservation rate is ten percent. Prior to the war it
12:23
Speaker 2: was eighty percent, and our reaction is no biggie deal
12:28
Speaker 2: with it. This isn't even a ceasefire or violation, So
12:30
Speaker 2: of course they're looking at this and going, wait a second,
12:32
Speaker 2: what have we.
12:33
Speaker 3: Signed ourselves up for?
12:34
Speaker 2: And this changes the entire calculation not only in the
12:36
Speaker 2: region but around the world of countries that host our
12:39
Speaker 2: bases and used to and saw them prior to this
12:41
Speaker 2: moment as being an advantage, as being oh, this is
12:44
Speaker 2: going to protect us. Now that calculus is completely flipped.
12:48
Speaker 2: Now it's they will hang us out to dry, and
12:50
Speaker 2: this makes us a target. So that's one of the
12:53
Speaker 2: reasons why this is so significant too. In terms of
12:55
Speaker 2: the options that are available to Trump, he has a
12:58
Speaker 2: I mean, he really doesn't even have a political horizon
13:00
Speaker 2: at this point because the wars so incredibly unpopular. Gas
13:03
Speaker 2: prices are way too high. You know, people here are
13:05
Speaker 2: very sensitive to that. He's got the midterms looming, et cetera.
13:08
Speaker 2: You've got these so you've got a very small at
13:11
Speaker 2: best political horizon here. You've got the economic noose tightening
13:16
Speaker 2: every day, and you've got the military armaments limitations that
13:20
Speaker 2: you know, and just in terms of the interceptors and
13:22
Speaker 2: the tomahawks and all of that sort of thing. And
13:24
Speaker 2: now you introduce another limiting factor, which is whether or
13:28
Speaker 2: not your allies are going to continue to cooperate with you,
13:30
Speaker 2: And as I said before, you really can't do any
13:32
Speaker 2: of this without their assistance.
13:34
Speaker 1: Court not at all. Let's continue a two up there
13:40
Speaker 1: on the screen, just a little bit of update on
13:42
Speaker 1: the talk. So what we know so far is there
13:46
Speaker 1: were these leaked details around what some sort of memorandum
13:49
Speaker 1: of understanding with Iran may look like, So let me
13:52
Speaker 1: go ahead and read them. Details around the length of
13:55
Speaker 1: any suspension of Iran's reuranium enrichment or possible removal remain
14:00
Speaker 1: unresolved and are expected to complicate any future talks. Now,
14:05
Speaker 1: what the plan seems to be is it would be
14:09
Speaker 1: a fourteen point memorandum of understanding, which, if you're familiar
14:13
Speaker 1: with the League of Nations is kind of not exactly
14:15
Speaker 1: a good reminder of where things went with that one.
14:18
Speaker 1: It says during the thirty days of talks there would
14:21
Speaker 1: be easing a choke hold on the straits of her
14:23
Speaker 1: moves by Iran and easing of the blockade by the US,
14:26
Speaker 1: so like a bilateral easing, if you will. The two
14:30
Speaker 1: sides are then working on details to halt enrichment of uranium.
14:35
Speaker 1: The US wants clauses that would prolong a moratorium on
14:38
Speaker 1: Iranian rrichment if Tehran wants to violate the deal. One
14:42
Speaker 1: idea is to halt enrichment for twelve to fifteen years,
14:46
Speaker 1: before then allowing Iran to enrich uranium up to three
14:48
Speaker 1: point sixty seven percent purity compared with the current stockpile
14:51
Speaker 1: enriched up to sixty percent, which puts it within the
14:54
Speaker 1: reach of the ninety percent enrichment needed to fuel a
14:57
Speaker 1: nuclear weapon. Now, the sticking point on this nuclear fuel,
15:01
Speaker 1: let's put a three up there on the screen, uranium.
15:04
Speaker 1: Trump says the United States will get the uranium from Iran.
15:08
Speaker 1: One of Trump and he said this to a couple
15:10
Speaker 1: of reporters, quote, We're just going to get it now.
15:13
Speaker 1: The thing is is that what the US wants out
15:16
Speaker 1: of Iran is they want them to unilaterally give them
15:20
Speaker 1: the enrichment. Basically allow our people on the ground take
15:23
Speaker 1: it out and bring it back here. The Iranians are like, no,
15:27
Speaker 1: that's not going to happen. We can downblend it, or
15:29
Speaker 1: we can give it to Russia. Maybe in the worst
15:32
Speaker 1: case scenario, we'll give it to Russia, and then international
15:35
Speaker 1: inspectors can go to Russia and then they can go
15:37
Speaker 1: there and then come to our places to check it out.
15:39
Speaker 1: But what they're basically saying absolutely not to is that
15:43
Speaker 1: we're going to get it now. I don't know, you
15:45
Speaker 1: know how much of this is bluster or not, but
15:47
Speaker 1: it remains the key sticking point. But you know, just
15:51
Speaker 1: zoom out a little bit. This is called the JCPOA,
15:54
Speaker 1: you know, the Comprehensive Plan of Action aka the Iran Deal,
15:58
Speaker 1: which was they give up nuclear or some amount of
16:01
Speaker 1: nuclear Richmond for ten to fifteen peer, I forget what
16:03
Speaker 1: the original terms where it's been so long at this point,
16:05
Speaker 1: and then in exchange they get sanctions relief, which is
16:07
Speaker 1: basically what the US has been allowed to do, except
16:10
Speaker 1: this time we vaporized, oh I don't know, fifty billion
16:13
Speaker 1: dollars probably, and the regime is stronger, and we get
16:18
Speaker 1: to sign a deal with them, which gives them some
16:20
Speaker 1: de facto control of the Straits of horror moves at
16:23
Speaker 1: the very least. Look, even if they charge nothing, the
16:25
Speaker 1: fact that they have the credible deterrence now of like
16:28
Speaker 1: we can shut this shit down any time that we
16:30
Speaker 1: want is going to give you some leverage, you know,
16:33
Speaker 1: in the future negotiations. So, yeah, I've been trying to
16:36
Speaker 1: come up with a good moniker of like the Trump
16:39
Speaker 1: All Comprehensive Trump All Comprehensive Organization that works out to Taco.
16:46
Speaker 1: So if you can help me come up with a
16:48
Speaker 1: good acronym for that. It's like those Bill Drafters who
16:51
Speaker 1: do like the Trump Act, and I need I need
16:53
Speaker 1: to call one of my friends in Congress.
16:54
Speaker 3: Yeah.
16:55
Speaker 1: So anyway, commenters, if you can help me try and
16:57
Speaker 1: work Taco into a JCPOA thing. If you do it,
17:00
Speaker 1: I don't know, we'll give you a free premium membership.
17:02
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's JCPOA plus.
17:04
Speaker 2: Incredible increase in Iranian power and degradation of our own
17:08
Speaker 2: standing in the world. Yeah, and a lot of money
17:10
Speaker 2: spent for what Yeah, amazing job here and to your foot,
17:13
Speaker 2: let's put a five up on the screen. This is Iran.
17:17
Speaker 2: Right after you know, we get this information, Oh we're
17:20
Speaker 2: close to a deal, blah blah blah, the baroque reviewed
17:23
Speaker 2: you know, market moving report. Right after that publishes, Iran
17:27
Speaker 2: introduces this new email based permit system for the trade
17:31
Speaker 2: of hormones.
17:31
Speaker 3: They like stood up this website that like.
17:33
Speaker 2: Okay, here's our here's a process, here's the way this
17:35
Speaker 2: is going to work going forward. So the notion that
17:39
Speaker 2: they're going to just let go of this control that
17:42
Speaker 2: they've been able to achieve with relative ease. Too, By
17:46
Speaker 2: the way, all it took really was just a threat.
17:48
Speaker 2: Because these are commercial ships. They're not going to take
17:51
Speaker 2: the risk of any sort of you know, significant damage
17:54
Speaker 2: to them or transmitting through a war zone, et cetera.
17:56
Speaker 2: They have not only their you know, their corporate bosses,
17:59
Speaker 2: You've got the insurance landscape that is not going to
18:03
Speaker 2: ensure tankers to go through a war zone. So in
18:06
Speaker 2: any case, they put this up like okay, well this
18:09
Speaker 2: is our new reality. So look, I do think that
18:12
Speaker 2: there are negotiations going back and forth. There are different
18:16
Speaker 2: drafts that are being exchange. Are we at a point
18:19
Speaker 2: where Trump is willing to accept the level of concessions
18:24
Speaker 2: and frankly codify the level of humiliation for the US
18:27
Speaker 2: that has been achieved the real achievement of this war.
18:30
Speaker 2: Is he at this place? I don't know, hard to see,
18:33
Speaker 2: hard to see.
18:34
Speaker 1: I don't see it yet. I also just think with
18:37
Speaker 1: the Israel part of all of this, you just can't
18:40
Speaker 1: underestimate that. Let's go and put a six up there
18:43
Speaker 1: on the screen. The Israelis, by their own admission, proudly
18:46
Speaker 1: bombed Beirut in the first attack on the capitol in weeks.
18:50
Speaker 1: According to them, they hit a terrorist Hezbola commander. I mean,
18:54
Speaker 1: I don't know, you can check Hazbola and see if
18:56
Speaker 1: they confirm that or not. But that, I mean, Ryan
18:59
Speaker 1: made the joke. This is how you know that the
19:00
Speaker 1: talks are serious, is that they're to bombing des them. Yeah,
19:06
Speaker 1: very possible. I mean, you know, they're staying pretty quiet
19:08
Speaker 1: right now. The Israelis, I think they don't want to
19:10
Speaker 1: be seen by immediately killing the deal in trump'size, only
19:15
Speaker 1: subtly trying to target it behind the scenes. I mean,
19:18
Speaker 1: their allies here in Washington are going crazy. Like if
19:21
Speaker 1: you look at the John Pond hered its, John Pott
19:24
Speaker 1: Harrits and the Hugh Hewitts of the world. Hugh Hewitt
19:27
Speaker 1: literally interviewed Trump what like on Monday, No, it's sorry.
19:31
Speaker 1: On Tuesday he did, this is a great come out
19:35
Speaker 1: of it. He interviewed Trump on Tuesday. By Wednesday he
19:37
Speaker 1: was like, oh, this is a horrible deal. I'm going
19:39
Speaker 1: to be having John Pott Herrits on my show to
19:41
Speaker 1: talk about why it's so horrible. So, I mean, there's
19:45
Speaker 1: when I see people like that freaking out. I'm a
19:47
Speaker 1: little I'm a little optimistic that something might happen. But
19:51
Speaker 1: they also signposts at everything. They chimp out, you know,
19:54
Speaker 1: any time that they need to, because in general, they
19:57
Speaker 1: have a good track record of working and you know,
20:00
Speaker 1: Lindsey Graham and Mark Levin and these people are all
20:03
Speaker 1: up in Trump's ear. Not to mention, you know, with
20:05
Speaker 1: the Iranians, it's very hard to get a picture of
20:08
Speaker 1: what they're up to. They have a lot of bluster.
20:10
Speaker 1: Gollobov put something out yesterday where he's like, this is
20:13
Speaker 1: all BS going after Axios that said they said all
20:16
Speaker 1: that last time before the ceasefire, and then they did
20:18
Speaker 1: agree to a ceasefire. So I don't know, you know,
20:20
Speaker 1: their government, I can't really figure it out. The IRGC
20:23
Speaker 1: is constantly, you know, saying that they're going to be attacking,
20:26
Speaker 1: they're doing all this, and their foreign minister and their
20:29
Speaker 1: Speaker of the Parliament, they genuinely do seem to want
20:31
Speaker 1: some sort of a deal. So I don't fully buy
20:34
Speaker 1: the US line about how they're totally divided. But it
20:37
Speaker 1: would be somewhat expected if you're going to lead the
20:39
Speaker 1: highly you know, if you're going to kill the highly
20:41
Speaker 1: respected leader of the country, to have some sort of
20:43
Speaker 1: factionalization break out with various different interests. I don't know
20:47
Speaker 1: what their strategy remains and or is, and I think
20:50
Speaker 1: it'd be very hard to get to a point where
20:52
Speaker 1: they're actually can just give up all the uranium fuel.
20:53
Speaker 1: It would shock me. Yeah, Actually, I.
20:55
Speaker 2: Don't think that's likely. The thing that argues in favor
20:58
Speaker 2: of a deal is simply Trump running out of other options,
21:01
Speaker 2: you know. I mean, he's the piece about Saudi Arabian
21:03
Speaker 2: Kuwait I think is very significant in that regard the
21:06
Speaker 2: economic piece, the political piece, the munition's piece. You're going
21:10
Speaker 2: to bomb caart G Island, Like, what is that going
21:12
Speaker 2: to do? Absolutely nothing? It's not going to change any
21:14
Speaker 2: of the dynamics at all. There's no air campaign that's
21:17
Speaker 2: going to solve it. You've already seen you got sold
21:20
Speaker 2: to billigods on this economic blockade. I mean, you know,
21:23
Speaker 2: all these pieces coming out, it's just fourteen days and
21:25
Speaker 2: their oil wells are going to explode. And this was
21:27
Speaker 2: all analysis from FDD, which is extremely aucust, extremely pro
21:31
Speaker 2: Israel think tank. The insanity of taking a guy from
21:33
Speaker 2: there by the way and put it on the negotiating
21:35
Speaker 2: team that pushes in the other direction of hard to
21:37
Speaker 2: see how this all works, although they aren't doing in
21:39
Speaker 2: person negotiations obviously at this point, but it seems like
21:42
Speaker 2: that would be required at some point if we're actually
21:43
Speaker 2: going to bring the war to a close. So in
21:46
Speaker 2: any case, I think that would be the dynamic that
21:48
Speaker 2: would push this to some sort of conclusion is simply
21:50
Speaker 2: the fact that Trump really has no options left then
21:54
Speaker 2: to take it on the chin, have to realize the
21:58
Speaker 2: gains that the Iranians have made at our expense and
22:01
Speaker 2: at the expense of all of our regional allies, to
22:05
Speaker 2: include Israel, and try his best to sell some victory
22:09
Speaker 2: narrative and hope that the media cycle moves so quickly
22:12
Speaker 2: and we all have the brains of goldfish that we'll
22:15
Speaker 2: forget all about it by the time the midterms roll around.
22:17
Speaker 3: That really is his best bet at this point.
22:20
Speaker 1: It's what It's kind of like what Dave said. He's like,
22:22
Speaker 1: if I wanted to play the game, I'd be like, oh,
22:24
Speaker 1: you know, you only you, yeah, would have the courage.
22:28
Speaker 1: I'm just like, I can't do it.
22:29
Speaker 3: The joke canline, Yeah, I can't do it.
22:32
Speaker 1: I just I have at this point. I just I've
22:36
Speaker 1: seen too much. I just don't really care, you know anymore.
22:39
Speaker 1: And I've seen that that strategy has backfired so many
22:42
Speaker 1: times for people who are trusting the plan. I'm just like, okay, man,
22:46
Speaker 1: you know, I have some dignity. Yeah, at a certain respect.
22:49
Speaker 2: It was crazy to see Hugh Hewett to your point
22:51
Speaker 2: about like the fit that they're all throwing, which is
22:53
Speaker 2: also is a positive sign, but also shows you the
22:56
Speaker 2: perils of all of this stuff because those people are
22:58
Speaker 2: unfortunately incredibly influential for whatever reason. But any any case,
23:02
Speaker 2: he came out and said the quiet part outline was like, yeah,
23:04
Speaker 2: it's in Israel's interesting to me.
23:05
Speaker 1: I love the stars. Yeah it's yeah.
23:07
Speaker 3: It's like, I mean, he's right.
23:08
Speaker 1: Yeah.
23:09
Speaker 2: In terms of the way they perceived the landscape, they
23:11
Speaker 2: always think they're one more bombing campaign away from you know,
23:13
Speaker 2: peace and victory and can never coexist with anyone, et cetera.
23:16
Speaker 2: So from their perspective, that's absolutely the case. And then
23:19
Speaker 2: you see them, oh, look more strikes in Lebanon.
23:22
Speaker 3: What do you what do you know?
23:24
Speaker 1: Shocker? Yeah, all right with oil.
23:26
Speaker 2: Yeah, let's go ahead and get to that. So meanwhile,
23:31
Speaker 2: obviously the impact at the pump is looms large for
23:35
Speaker 2: Americans here. Oil prices are down somewhat from their peak
23:38
Speaker 2: over these idea of maybe there's talks going on, maybe
23:41
Speaker 2: there's some sort of an end to this war, insight,
23:42
Speaker 2: et cetera. But Trump says, hey, even if oil were
23:46
Speaker 2: to go up to two hundred dollars a barrel, which
23:48
Speaker 2: would equate.
23:49
Speaker 3: To what of the gas pump soccer, do you think
23:50
Speaker 3: two hundred?
23:51
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's about seven eight dollars. It would be about
23:54
Speaker 1: nine dollars a gallon in California.
23:55
Speaker 3: Yeah, So there you go.
23:57
Speaker 2: So he says that that even that if that were
23:59
Speaker 2: to happen, which is still very much possibility on the table,
24:02
Speaker 2: it would be worth it.
24:03
Speaker 3: Let's take a listen to that.
24:04
Speaker 4: Twenty percent and we're up. The stock market's higher now
24:07
Speaker 4: than when we started this war. And I thought oil
24:10
Speaker 4: prices we'd go to two hundred, two hundred and fifty dollars,
24:13
Speaker 4: it's at one hundred dollars now. And I think you're surprised,
24:16
Speaker 4: and I'm surprised, but even if it went to two hundred,
24:20
Speaker 4: it would have been worth it.
24:21
Speaker 2: It would be worth it even if I went to
24:23
Speaker 2: two hundred dollars a barrel. I have a feeling that
24:25
Speaker 2: most Americans do not agree with that, given the fact
24:28
Speaker 2: that polling has shown from the beginning of this war
24:31
Speaker 2: opposition to this war.
24:32
Speaker 1: It is, you know, the market thing though, that's the
24:34
Speaker 1: part that bugs me the most. I mean, look, I'm
24:37
Speaker 1: not happy that the market hasn't crashed for personal reasons,
24:40
Speaker 1: but for everybody's reasons, because obviously that would lead to
24:44
Speaker 1: like mass layoffs if it were to happen. But it
24:47
Speaker 1: is crazy how much AI has saved this man. It's nuts.
24:52
Speaker 1: Like the only reason that the market is continuing to
24:55
Speaker 1: rip the way that it is is because AMD and
24:58
Speaker 1: Intel and Micron and sand Disks and you know, companies
25:02
Speaker 1: like this are just ripping like and they're the ones
25:04
Speaker 1: that are just powering the S and P five hundred forward.
25:08
Speaker 1: But for me, like the disconnect between consumer sentiment and
25:11
Speaker 1: for where things are today, like with the stock market,
25:15
Speaker 1: it's just I don't know. I think politicians need to
25:17
Speaker 1: delete it from their brain. Entirely like the truth is is, yes,
25:20
Speaker 1: many Americans have four oh one K, most aren't being
25:23
Speaker 1: able to tap it unless they're old, and in the
25:25
Speaker 1: immediate term, shit's too expensive. Just period, end of story.
25:28
Speaker 1: But for some reason people still worship the market as
25:31
Speaker 1: if it's some sort of sign of the economy. It
25:33
Speaker 1: just couldn't be more, couldn't be farther from the truth. Yes,
25:35
Speaker 1: at this.
25:36
Speaker 3: Point, absolutely the case.
25:37
Speaker 2: And then to show you also the links they have
25:39
Speaker 2: to go to, like the torturing of logic and rationality
25:44
Speaker 2: that they have to go to at this point to
25:47
Speaker 2: justify this war as any sort of positive. Let's take
25:49
Speaker 2: a listen to Secretary of State Marco Rubio yesterday in
25:53
Speaker 2: his comments about how much worse things could have been.
25:57
Speaker 1: Everyone needs to think about it this way.
25:58
Speaker 5: If Iron had a nuclear weapon and they decided to
26:01
Speaker 5: close the straits and make our gas prices like nine
26:03
Speaker 5: dollars a gallon or eight dollars a gallon, we wouldn't
26:05
Speaker 5: be able to do anything about it because they have
26:06
Speaker 5: a nuclear weapon, and a nuclear armed Iron could do
26:10
Speaker 5: whatever the hell they want with the streets, and there's
26:12
Speaker 5: nothing anyone would be able to do about it. And
26:15
Speaker 5: that's one of the many reasons, apart from like the
26:18
Speaker 5: massive loss of life and the nuclear strike, why Iran
26:20
Speaker 5: can never have a nuclear weapon.
26:21
Speaker 2: To stay the obvious here, Sagar, they don't have a
26:24
Speaker 2: nuclear weapon and they still were able to close the
26:27
Speaker 2: straight U four moves and there was nothing we can
26:28
Speaker 2: do about it.
26:29
Speaker 1: So oops, yeah, a little bit of a problem. I mean,
26:31
Speaker 1: this is this is classic Iraq war, Iraq war ideology.
26:36
Speaker 1: We don't want the smoking gun to be a mushroom cloud, right, Like,
26:39
Speaker 1: oh well, we don't want this hypothetical bad thing to happen,
26:42
Speaker 1: so we have to do this really really awful thing
26:44
Speaker 1: in the immediate future. It's just ridiculous. And you know,
26:48
Speaker 1: at this point, like what have we really proven? Yes,
26:51
Speaker 1: they were able to close the straits of our moves
26:53
Speaker 1: not only with no nukes, but with twenty thousand dollars
26:56
Speaker 1: drones and a bunch of speed boats because they study
27:00
Speaker 1: eat our military and they said, these are the various
27:02
Speaker 1: holes that they have in them, and when the time comes,
27:04
Speaker 1: this is what we're going to do. But this is
27:07
Speaker 1: again the tortured logic that you have to twist yourselves
27:09
Speaker 1: into knots to try and to justify this. This will
27:12
Speaker 1: hit with absolutely nobody. Nine dollars a gas would be
27:16
Speaker 1: worth it if they had a nuclear weapon. Well, we're
27:19
Speaker 1: already at four fifty or something like that. And the
27:21
Speaker 1: only reason that it won't containe that would go lower
27:25
Speaker 1: in any way has nothing to do with whether Iran
27:27
Speaker 1: gives up a new or whether we cry uncle and
27:29
Speaker 1: say okay, let's go ahead and re sign some sort
27:31
Speaker 1: of fake JCPOA agreement. Yeah, that's it. That's the only
27:34
Speaker 1: reason gas will go down.
27:34
Speaker 2: Well, it turns out they did have a nuclear weapon.
27:36
Speaker 2: It was called the straight upfom Moves and it's a
27:39
Speaker 2: very effective determent.
27:40
Speaker 1: Economic. No, don't give them more talking points because they're
27:42
Speaker 1: going to use that, the economic nuke. Actually, I'm pretty
27:44
Speaker 1: sure they have said it.
27:45
Speaker 3: You're fight right, and.
27:46
Speaker 2: It's true, I mean, in terms of acting as an
27:49
Speaker 2: effective deterrent, it is, Yes, that is I mean, and
27:53
Speaker 2: that's effectively what you know, nuclear weapons, so long as
27:56
Speaker 2: they aren't used, that's what they serve as they serve
27:58
Speaker 2: as a deterrent. That's what Korea is up to and
28:01
Speaker 2: why that government still exists and we don't even talk
28:04
Speaker 2: about going in and really messing with them, so they
28:07
Speaker 2: they have that. Now they've demonstrated that they have that
28:10
Speaker 2: tool in their toolkit, and that is really fundamentally what
28:13
Speaker 2: has changed all of the dynamics here.
28:15
Speaker 3: You know, we're also learning a lot.
28:17
Speaker 2: I think as a country about the oil markets and
28:19
Speaker 2: how this all works. We can put V three up
28:21
Speaker 2: on the screen because there is one group here in
28:24
Speaker 2: the US that is very much benefiting from this. Actually
28:27
Speaker 2: there's a few groups, but one of them is the
28:30
Speaker 2: oil companies, oil executives. They are seeing record sales at
28:35
Speaker 2: a premium price. This is all oil, that is flow.
28:38
Speaker 2: We are now a net exporter of oil. And if
28:42
Speaker 2: you are, you know, a major shareholder in let's say Exonmobile,
28:46
Speaker 2: that's great news for you.
28:47
Speaker 3: If you're a regular.
28:48
Speaker 2: American who's paying the price at the pump, not such
28:51
Speaker 2: great news. And this is why this rhetoric from Trump
28:55
Speaker 2: about how we have plenty of oil so this we
28:58
Speaker 2: don't even need the straight up horror moves. This is
28:59
Speaker 2: for other people who use the straight and form mos
29:02
Speaker 2: why this has always been a fantasy and really belies
29:05
Speaker 2: the reality of a global commodities market where you know,
29:10
Speaker 2: our oil here is going to chase the highest price
29:13
Speaker 2: around the world. So as the Asian economies suffer because
29:17
Speaker 2: they do pull more of their oil from the Middle East,
29:20
Speaker 2: well guess what, they bid up prices, and our oil
29:22
Speaker 2: is going to flow to them, and that's going to
29:24
Speaker 2: increase our prices as well.
29:26
Speaker 3: That is the way a global market works.
29:29
Speaker 2: So no, we are not protected from the oil shock
29:32
Speaker 2: of this war, not at all. In fact, there have
29:34
Speaker 2: been analyzes that second to Asia, our increase in gas
29:37
Speaker 2: prices has been the most in the entire world.
29:39
Speaker 1: That's exactly why, is because our inventories are going way down,
29:43
Speaker 1: you know. And that's something I really learned from Rory.
29:45
Speaker 1: And this is such an indictment of the Trump administer
29:47
Speaker 1: of the bid honestly, not even them, of everybody who's
29:50
Speaker 1: talked about energy independence over the last twenty five years,
29:53
Speaker 1: because how often have you and I heard that line
29:56
Speaker 1: or we are an energy net exporter. What I didn't
29:59
Speaker 1: understand though, is that our own infrastructure is set up
30:02
Speaker 1: for said global market. Is that we have many refineries
30:05
Speaker 1: which can't even refine our own oil. Is that a
30:08
Speaker 1: lot of it is set to refine other people's oil
30:10
Speaker 1: or the let's say, the refineries in Asia or others
30:13
Speaker 1: you know, refineries. It's not like oil is one thing.
30:16
Speaker 1: There's all these different types of oil. Again, I've had
30:17
Speaker 1: to learn heavy crude, sweet crude, light sweet crude, whatever.
30:21
Speaker 1: So all of these different things have different refineries which
30:23
Speaker 1: are set up to refine them. Well, it turns out,
30:26
Speaker 1: you know here in the United States, that this whole
30:28
Speaker 1: idea of just pumping oil out of the ground and
30:30
Speaker 1: we can just refine it easily. No, we haven't built
30:33
Speaker 1: a new oil refiner in these country since the nineteen seventies. Literally,
30:36
Speaker 1: they're piece they're piece of shit aging technology. Compared to China,
30:41
Speaker 1: those Chinese are called like the teapot refineries. Have been
30:44
Speaker 1: looking into them fascinating in terms of the way that
30:46
Speaker 1: they've been able to prop up this entire new different thing.
30:49
Speaker 1: They're much more flexible. They're actually built in order to
30:53
Speaker 1: evade also US sanctions. Those are the companies which they
30:55
Speaker 1: told just ignore US sanctions, you know, for the first
30:58
Speaker 1: time in their own history. But the point is is
31:00
Speaker 1: that we never actually planned for a Russia style scenario,
31:04
Speaker 1: even though it was easily easily foreseeable. Where when Russia
31:08
Speaker 1: got cut off from the global market, everybody, including me,
31:11
Speaker 1: I was like they're dead. They're dead. Guess what they
31:15
Speaker 1: are booming in terms of their ability to refine oil
31:18
Speaker 1: now to the extent that it's been hit, it's because
31:20
Speaker 1: the Ukrainians are putting drones in it. But it's not
31:23
Speaker 1: because they were cut off by the rest of the world.
31:25
Speaker 1: Same in terms of their defense industrial base. They're able
31:28
Speaker 1: to manufacture bullets and guns. If he can do bullets,
31:31
Speaker 1: guns and oils, then you're good in this world. At
31:33
Speaker 1: the end of the day. It's like a fail safe.
31:35
Speaker 1: But we just don't learn. And this is actually a
31:38
Speaker 1: very interesting clip that played. I think it was at
31:41
Speaker 1: the Milken Institute conference, which is like, you know, one
31:44
Speaker 1: of those devoslight organizations, which is happening right now. And
31:48
Speaker 1: in it what you have is a analyst Jeff Curry,
31:52
Speaker 1: who is from Carlisle, actually talking about oil storage tanks
31:57
Speaker 1: and how he believes that they're going to run empty
31:59
Speaker 1: right around July fourth. Let's take a listen.
32:01
Speaker 3: When does storage tanks run empty?
32:03
Speaker 6: You're parts of the world like Australia, Philippines, Thailand, you are,
32:08
Speaker 6: but the question is when and where? You know, I
32:11
Speaker 6: still say other with you, you know it's going to be
32:13
Speaker 6: you know sometime the month of May that you're going
32:15
Speaker 6: to end up with Europe hitting tank bottoms, and in
32:20
Speaker 6: the US it's somewhere.
32:21
Speaker 1: In that July fourth time period, if not sooner.
32:24
Speaker 6: By the way, the inventory's number coming out of the US,
32:26
Speaker 6: the ones we got last night, the ones last week.
32:29
Speaker 1: I've never seen anything like.
32:30
Speaker 6: That before, and I think that it's important to remember
32:33
Speaker 6: that these inventory numbers, let's define terms a deficit versus
32:39
Speaker 6: a shortage. We have a deficit today, meaning that demand
32:44
Speaker 6: is above.
32:44
Speaker 1: Supply and we're drawing inventories. It's not a shortage yet.
32:47
Speaker 6: So to answer your question, you have the shortages in
32:50
Speaker 6: places like you know, Asia, and it's not that bad
32:53
Speaker 6: yet because you're not completely at tank bottoms. But in
32:57
Speaker 6: places like Europe and the United States, you're in a
33:00
Speaker 6: deficit and you don't hit the shortages until you hit
33:03
Speaker 6: tank bottoms, right.
33:04
Speaker 1: So I think that's a very insightful point, is that
33:06
Speaker 1: we had all these storage tanks, but over the last
33:08
Speaker 1: two months we've been shipping it all to Asia, Mexico, wherever,
33:12
Speaker 1: like every buyer in the world, so they're bidding up
33:14
Speaker 1: the price. But when the tanks run out, then you
33:18
Speaker 1: have a physical shortage because you don't have any you
33:21
Speaker 1: don't have a steady supply to be able to feed
33:24
Speaker 1: into the market. So you get whatever you pump, you're
33:26
Speaker 1: gonna you know, immediately ship out. That means that the price.
33:30
Speaker 1: I mean, that's why you know, when you were talking
33:31
Speaker 1: about two hundred of barrel, it's like, is there even
33:33
Speaker 1: a price if you just kind of have gas? Like,
33:35
Speaker 1: it's not a price if you don't have gas, right,
33:37
Speaker 1: And that's I think that's like not a completely out
33:41
Speaker 1: of the question scenario. Let's say I'm not saying like
33:45
Speaker 1: in New York City or some major population area. I'm
33:47
Speaker 1: talking about like Alaska or Hawaii, like something like that.
33:51
Speaker 1: That's where it would first show up. They're really hard
33:53
Speaker 1: to reach places, but that you know, that's where it
33:55
Speaker 1: starts and then starts to creep in and you have
33:57
Speaker 1: eight dollar gas nine dollars gas, and you know, maybe
33:59
Speaker 1: this sounds crazy, but these are energy analysts who are
34:02
Speaker 1: looking at this and they're like, look the inventory number.
34:05
Speaker 1: Rory as well, who we keep having on the show.
34:07
Speaker 1: They are laser focused on these inventory numbers because they
34:11
Speaker 1: know what he's saying about shortages and the impact that
34:14
Speaker 1: that will have on price. So what we're paying right
34:17
Speaker 1: now is nothing compared to what it looks like when
34:20
Speaker 1: you actually run dry, and then your production has to
34:22
Speaker 1: keep up with exactly what you're consuming in the moment.
34:25
Speaker 1: It makes sense for any business is you always want
34:27
Speaker 1: to have flex storage. You know, the entire oil market
34:30
Speaker 1: has been predicated on this storage ability. That's why these
34:34
Speaker 1: tanks exist in the first place. And then the also
34:37
Speaker 1: the prediction was literally just looking at this morning at
34:40
Speaker 1: satellite images coming out of Carg Island. Remember how they
34:42
Speaker 1: said the storage facilities weren't going to fill up. You
34:45
Speaker 1: can actually see the storage tanks where the lid is
34:49
Speaker 1: low in the ground and it should be high in
34:51
Speaker 1: the ground if it's full low And behold, you've got
34:53
Speaker 1: low tanks all over Carg So they haven't run out
34:57
Speaker 1: of oil storage, even though they told us that was
34:59
Speaker 1: going to happen to weeks ago. Meanwhile, this guy who
35:02
Speaker 1: can read a spreadsheet released by the US government is like, yeah,
35:05
Speaker 1: July fourth, anyone want to tell me of July four?
35:07
Speaker 1: It's an important time to drive. Do people drive around then?
35:10
Speaker 1: I haven't checked recently. Here can you imagine barbecue season?
35:14
Speaker 1: You can't drive anywhere yeah, people gon to lose it.
35:16
Speaker 2: Well, and let's put this is before up on the
35:19
Speaker 2: screen from the New York Times. This is Tom and
35:23
Speaker 2: Joseph Smith, who does very good reporting over there on economics.
35:26
Speaker 3: Shout out to him.
35:27
Speaker 2: Higher gas prices are hitting lower in American's hardest I mean,
35:30
Speaker 2: that's obvious, but he goes into some of the details here,
35:34
Speaker 2: and lower income households already spent much more on gas
35:37
Speaker 2: than usual, but cut back on the amount of gasoline
35:40
Speaker 2: they bought by driving less or potentially by carpooling or
35:42
Speaker 2: substituting to public transit where available. According to new report,
35:46
Speaker 2: rich people haven't changed their consumption habits at all, but
35:49
Speaker 2: already consumption patterns of change. This is demand destruction already
35:54
Speaker 2: happening among working class Americans.
35:57
Speaker 3: I really encourage you guys.
35:58
Speaker 2: If you didn't watch yesterday's show, listen to the woman
36:01
Speaker 2: that called into Emiline's show and she said, I am
36:05
Speaker 2: a triple Trump voter. I will never already already today,
36:10
Speaker 2: I will never vote for a Republican again. That's what
36:12
Speaker 2: she said. Okay, she is so representative of so many people.
36:16
Speaker 2: Because you know, people here in DC like Trump and
36:19
Speaker 2: all this. You know, billion are cronies and all these people,
36:21
Speaker 2: they are so disconnected. They don't understand that for regular people.
36:26
Speaker 2: They don't have a cushion where it's like, oh I
36:28
Speaker 2: just ride this sound yeah. Gas price a little bit
36:30
Speaker 2: higher now, but it'll go down maybe by the midterms,
36:33
Speaker 2: maybe by next year it'll be fine. No, this means
36:36
Speaker 2: they aren't making it to day. That is already not
36:40
Speaker 2: working for them to day, especially with this so much
36:42
Speaker 2: of our economy being gigwork and being like you know,
36:44
Speaker 2: Uber drivers, and they are getting coletely screwed. Truckers are
36:49
Speaker 2: getting screwed. Uber drivers are getting screwed like anyone who
36:52
Speaker 2: has a significant commute, which by the way is a
36:55
Speaker 2: lot of Americans because they have to live somewhere where
36:57
Speaker 2: they can afford the rent and then commute it into
37:00
Speaker 2: a major city outside of New York City or a
37:02
Speaker 2: public transit is complete trash. So it's like impossible in
37:06
Speaker 2: most places to even take a bus or a train
37:09
Speaker 2: or whatever to be able to get to work avail
37:11
Speaker 2: yourself of some sort of public transit option. So people
37:14
Speaker 2: all ready today are getting so screwed and they are
37:18
Speaker 2: not going to forget. And there is no there is
37:21
Speaker 2: no buffer between Trump's decision and what they're paying at
37:24
Speaker 2: the pumps. I mean, this's the point you made before,
37:26
Speaker 2: Like we saw the Ukraine War, was Russia invade and
37:28
Speaker 2: then we had to deal with the fallout.
37:30
Speaker 3: No, this was all us. The terriffs were all us.
37:34
Speaker 3: This is all us.
37:35
Speaker 2: The entire economic landscape is completely authored by Trump himself,
37:40
Speaker 2: and people know that.
37:42
Speaker 1: I continue to read about airfare jet fuel, So it's
37:46
Speaker 1: up thirty percent. So jet fuel accounts for just thirty
37:49
Speaker 1: percent roughly of airfare now right now, literally just right now.
37:53
Speaker 1: As of a few days ago, the average domestic round
37:56
Speaker 1: trip flight was up to three hundred and fifty eight dollars,
37:59
Speaker 1: which is twenty percent. That was before Spirit went bankrupt.
38:03
Speaker 1: International airline was also up significantly in terms of the
38:07
Speaker 1: numbers now anecdotally. I just saw somebody today saying that
38:11
Speaker 1: they paid thirty eight hundred dollars for a summer flight
38:15
Speaker 1: to London in not premium economy economies round trip ticket
38:19
Speaker 1: from the United States to London, which is great. I mean,
38:21
Speaker 1: it's what is s six hour flight from the East coast,
38:24
Speaker 1: Like that's really insane. That's that should be I mean,
38:28
Speaker 1: in my head, that's a premium economy fair. That's like
38:30
Speaker 1: a premium fare, not a basic economy fair. Then what
38:34
Speaker 1: you also have, what I was reading a little bit
38:36
Speaker 1: about here, is that in addition to raising ticket prices, Alaska, American, Delta,
38:41
Speaker 1: Jet Blue, Southwest, and United have all increased bag fees
38:45
Speaker 1: so to also offset the ticket price. So what that
38:49
Speaker 1: means also you get a bet that that bag fee
38:51
Speaker 1: ever comes down again.
38:52
Speaker 3: Of course, yeah, right, so the batfee.
38:55
Speaker 1: Went up, but when jet fuel goes by half, oh
38:57
Speaker 1: I'm sure we'll still I actually don't even know what
38:59
Speaker 1: the bag fee is. Oh my god, Delta is fifty
39:02
Speaker 1: dollars a bag. I mean, I never check a bag,
39:05
Speaker 1: but fifty dollars a bag is wild. First and second,
39:11
Speaker 1: I can't even believe it, Like that is so insane.
39:14
Speaker 1: First bag forty five bucks, second bag fifty five. Third
39:16
Speaker 1: bag is two hundred. This is on Delta. Southwest Airlines
39:20
Speaker 1: also hiked its check bag fees from thirty five to
39:22
Speaker 1: forty five, and the second one goes from forty five
39:24
Speaker 1: to fifty five, and then United American and all of
39:27
Speaker 1: these others.
39:27
Speaker 2: There's attach on women because we just require a lot more.
39:31
Speaker 3: We the shoes the shoes, the hair dryer, the makeup.
39:34
Speaker 3: It takes up a lot of space.
39:36
Speaker 1: Okay, I know this is the probably one of the
39:38
Speaker 1: biggest fights in my marriage. Whatever I went on for
39:41
Speaker 1: twelve years, I didn't check a bag at all, and now, well,
39:44
Speaker 1: I guess what the baby just give up and you
39:45
Speaker 1: have Oh yeah, there's no job for me. It's that
39:48
Speaker 1: there's a scene and up in the air. I'm sorry
39:49
Speaker 1: for the tangent. This is something I'm very passionate about.
39:52
Speaker 1: Is there's up in the air scene where he lectures
39:55
Speaker 1: that Anna Kendrick. I think it is George Clooney and
39:57
Speaker 1: he's like, do you know how much time it takes
39:59
Speaker 1: to check a And he's like thirty five minutes on average,
40:02
Speaker 1: And he's like, at my level, that's a week. And
40:04
Speaker 1: I has lived in my head since two thousand and
40:06
Speaker 1: nine about the amount of time that you will lose
40:09
Speaker 1: in bag check. But I guess you just have to
40:10
Speaker 1: give up.
40:11
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, especially travel less frequently, so it doesn't add
40:14
Speaker 2: up to a week.
40:15
Speaker 3: It's not as big as a deal. It is what
40:16
Speaker 3: it is. Okay, one more thing here, what was I
40:19
Speaker 3: going to go to?
40:21
Speaker 2: Oh we have to talk about this b seven, so
40:25
Speaker 2: to add a criminal insult to injury. Here more insider trading.
40:30
Speaker 2: Right as you know, this Axios report hits that, oh, a.
40:35
Speaker 3: Deal is imminin it's you know, the end of the war.
40:38
Speaker 2: Oh lo and behold you got someone who to the
40:41
Speaker 2: tune of nine hundred and twenty million dollars shorted the
40:45
Speaker 2: oil market and was able to profit wildly. So this
40:51
Speaker 2: is the Kobec letter lays it out here. According to
40:54
Speaker 2: our analysis, about nine hundred and twenty million dollars worth
40:56
Speaker 2: of crude oil shorts were taking seventy minutes before an
40:59
Speaker 2: Axios report claim the US and Iran were near a
41:01
Speaker 2: fourteen point deal to end the war. At three forty am,
41:03
Speaker 2: nearly ten thousand contracts worth of crude oil shorts were
41:07
Speaker 2: taken without any major news occurring. That's equivalent to nine
41:10
Speaker 2: hundred twenty million dollars in notional value, unusually large trade
41:13
Speaker 2: for three forty am. At four fifty AM, just seventy
41:16
Speaker 2: minutes later, Axios publishes their report that the US is
41:19
Speaker 2: close to a memo of understanding to end the Irn war.
41:22
Speaker 2: By seven am, oil prices had fallen over twelve percent.
41:26
Speaker 2: With these crude oil shorts, gaining approximately one hundred and
41:30
Speaker 2: twenty five million dollars. Minutes later, Alurn launched the Persian
41:35
Speaker 2: goal straight authority, and oil prices then surged another eight percent,
41:38
Speaker 2: but still plenty of money made here before oil sarched
41:42
Speaker 2: and didn't go back to the hides that it were
41:44
Speaker 2: at was at before. So I mean, this is like clockwork.
41:47
Speaker 2: You know, if it was one time, you might say, oh, well,
41:49
Speaker 2: maybe they just anticipated and they know the news usually
41:52
Speaker 2: comes out on Monday and they just got lucky.
41:54
Speaker 1: Right.
41:54
Speaker 2: This happens every time, whether it's terriff announcements, whether it's
42:00
Speaker 2: developments with the Iran war announcements, every single time, like clockwork,
42:04
Speaker 2: you look and you see that there is someone who
42:07
Speaker 2: is front running the trade to the tune of millions
42:10
Speaker 2: of dollars. Could be someone in Trump's family, could be
42:12
Speaker 2: someone in the administration, could be someone in Axios who
42:16
Speaker 2: has access to this reporting before they know press publish
42:19
Speaker 2: on their report. But this needs to be looked into
42:23
Speaker 2: because how disgusting, how criminal is it that while people
42:28
Speaker 2: are suffering because of this war and unable to make
42:32
Speaker 2: it in terms of their economic lives, unable to pay rent,
42:35
Speaker 2: unable to pay the price at the pump to make
42:37
Speaker 2: it to their jobs. Unable to really keep it together.
42:42
Speaker 2: You have whoever these people are on the inside, who
42:45
Speaker 2: are profiting to the tune of millions of dollars.
42:47
Speaker 3: It is hard to think of something more disgusting.
42:49
Speaker 1: Yeah, actually, it's so bad. Even the DOJ today, let's
42:52
Speaker 1: put this up there on the screen in post I
42:54
Speaker 1: sent it to our chat is now probing oil insider
42:57
Speaker 1: trades two point six billion, and they actually summarize it
43:01
Speaker 1: in a way which is crazy. March twenty third, fifteen
43:04
Speaker 1: minutes before Trump announced he would delay threatened attacks, traders
43:07
Speaker 1: bet five hundred million. We covered that at the time
43:10
Speaker 1: that oil prices would fall April seven hours ahead of
43:13
Speaker 1: a temporary ceasefire. Traders bet nine hundred and sixty million
43:17
Speaker 1: that oil prices would fall April seventeen, twenty minutes before
43:21
Speaker 1: Iran's foreign minister posted that the Strait of Horn Mouves
43:23
Speaker 1: was open, Traders bet seven hundred and sixty million that
43:26
Speaker 1: oil would fall April twenty first, Four days later, fifteen
43:30
Speaker 1: minutes before Trump announceds he will extend the ceasefire, traders
43:32
Speaker 1: place the bets four hundred and thirty million the oil
43:35
Speaker 1: prices would fall. And to be clear, I'm not accusing
43:37
Speaker 1: anyone at Axios of wrongdoing. However, you're Barack Revide. You
43:42
Speaker 1: know I was up whenever he put his story out.
43:44
Speaker 1: It was like five in the morning, and I was like, okay,
43:47
Speaker 1: And so you're the overnight editor at Axios. What do
43:49
Speaker 1: you think that guy makes or girl thirty five thousand
43:52
Speaker 1: forty all right, all right, so you're the overnight editor.
43:55
Speaker 1: You're probably like twenty three years old. You read a
43:57
Speaker 1: lot of stories about insider trading or any of these
43:59
Speaker 1: other really saw a little tempting to be thinking.
44:03
Speaker 3: You're like all these other people playing game, and.
44:04
Speaker 1: Look, maybe they didn't even or maybe And this happens
44:07
Speaker 1: in journalism all the time. When you have a big scoop,
44:09
Speaker 1: you brag about it right to all of your friends.
44:11
Speaker 3: Yeah, you know I have friends.
44:13
Speaker 1: All the time. Hey, off the record, man, this is coming.
44:16
Speaker 1: Can't wait to see you guys cover on the show.
44:18
Speaker 1: It literally happens like twice a week. Okay, Well, what
44:21
Speaker 1: stops me from insider trading? My only my own ethics.
44:25
Speaker 1: But there's no regulatory body which is going to come
44:27
Speaker 1: and to find me. Also, yeah, to be clear, I've
44:29
Speaker 1: literally never done that. In fact, I remember thinking when
44:32
Speaker 1: I had a big scoop on the marijuana thing that
44:34
Speaker 1: it was coming that I spent all the time trying
44:37
Speaker 1: to confirm the story. And meanwhile, afterward it came out.
44:40
Speaker 1: I went back and looked at the charts and the
44:41
Speaker 1: same news that had leaked to me had leaked to
44:43
Speaker 1: a bunch of other people. But they bought all the
44:44
Speaker 1: stock and they made like a killing, like like I
44:48
Speaker 1: think it was like thirty three thousand percent or something,
44:50
Speaker 1: some sort of shocking number that they were able to
44:53
Speaker 1: make on the trade. Meanwhile, I'm some idiot here being
44:56
Speaker 1: like let me confirm or just to show my brain works.
45:00
Speaker 1: But that, I mean, I can just see this level
45:04
Speaker 1: of you know, it can leak out. You have somebody
45:06
Speaker 1: who brags to a friend or something and they know
45:09
Speaker 1: a trader in Singapore or some desk and I don't
45:11
Speaker 1: know in London. Not that hard.
45:13
Speaker 2: No, you make a good point too, though, because that
45:16
Speaker 2: shows the cycle of moral degradation. Because if you are
45:19
Speaker 2: you know the person who got that leak and you
45:21
Speaker 2: see everybody else right who is profiting off of it,
45:24
Speaker 2: next time, you're gonna be like I'm not going to
45:26
Speaker 2: be the sucker here, you know. I mean, that's how
45:28
Speaker 2: it happens. It's like everybody's doing it. I guess this
45:30
Speaker 2: is just what is done. And that's the way that
45:32
Speaker 2: you have like a massive cultural, societal breakdown of any
45:36
Speaker 2: sort of ethics. So the same person makes a much
45:40
Speaker 2: shadier decision in the future, not because they've changed personally
45:44
Speaker 2: or their morals have like you know, their baseline has changed,
45:47
Speaker 2: but because of where society is moved.
45:48
Speaker 3: And now see it is like, oh, I guess this
45:50
Speaker 3: is just what.
45:50
Speaker 1: We do exactly. And like I said, I'm just speculating,
45:53
Speaker 1: but this was beaten into me at the very beginning
45:56
Speaker 1: of my career. So we don't do that, right, that's
45:59
Speaker 1: other people, and so it doesn't cross my mind. But
46:02
Speaker 1: I could see how if you're twenty something years old
46:05
Speaker 1: and you're living here in this cesspool with Polymarket and Calshie,
46:10
Speaker 1: and I mean everybody in this town knows somebody who's
46:13
Speaker 1: made some money on Polymarket or Calci, not necessarily in
46:15
Speaker 1: a nefarious way. Usually somebody being like I can't believe
46:18
Speaker 1: some idiot thinks that X is going to win in
46:21
Speaker 1: this race. I have some insider knowledge. I'm generally familiar
46:25
Speaker 1: with the situation. I'll throw some money on. This has
46:27
Speaker 1: been happening for years with predicted and a few other
46:30
Speaker 1: things were especially pronounced. Now it's like, like you just said,
46:33
Speaker 1: that puts a moral rot into a system where generally
46:35
Speaker 1: people didn't do that. Now there's always been the you know,
46:38
Speaker 1: the members of Congress and others, but at the staff
46:41
Speaker 1: and other level, I don't really think it crossed a
46:43
Speaker 1: lot of people's minds at like a cultural phenomena. But
46:46
Speaker 1: when you turn the news on every day and CNN
46:49
Speaker 1: is broadcast in Calshi adds and who else somebody else
46:53
Speaker 1: has partnered with polymarket. I mean even in the journal,
46:55
Speaker 1: like you know, I'm talking about the Wall Street Journal.
46:57
Speaker 1: You can read and you're looking at some of the
47:00
Speaker 1: stuff in there, you're like, I don't know, just you know,
47:02
Speaker 1: you normalize it and it becomes something where you can't
47:04
Speaker 1: trust anything, which is obviously bad. So all right, let's
47:08
Speaker 1: move on to debt.