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NFL Week 3 Gambling Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites the podcast from the Volume Podcast
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: Network Guy and Chad Noman. I will be joined in
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: a moment by my companion Mika padre My BFF Professional
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: Better Extraordinarire Mr Simon Hunter. Reminder, I'm the Chief Content
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: Officer of the Action Network. The Action Network is a
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: company that focuses entirely on serving the sports betting fan.
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: You need it, we got it. You want research, you
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: want data, you want picks, you want analysis. We do
• 0:43
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• 0:46
  Speaker 1: do it all in our free award winning app, Action
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: Network App. Go download it. You can also listen to
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: our Action Network podcast for NFL are Big Bets on
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: Campus podcast for college football. We got so much to
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: talk about today, Simon. We're gonna go over our Simon says,
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: which is you say it, we bet it. We're gonna
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: do every game on the slate, every single game. Reminder,
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: we'll be back on Thursday, will narrow down the slate.
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: We'll focus in on the five, six, seven bets that
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: we love the most as we head into Sunday, which
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: we will put in the Action Network Gap. My brother,
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: what's going on, Simon and so much is change in
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: the week. I went from being the only guy with
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: the first place team to all of us have first
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: place teams in our own divisions tied for first place.
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: I should say it's uh, it's NFL. A lot of
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: changing pieces a week the week. Here's what's amazing, are we?
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: You know? Week one underdogs winning. You know, everything is
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: fantastic for guys like us who tend to favor playing
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: the underdogs. Anyways, it's brilliant. Works out perfectly. The next week.
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: You and I were all over the Eagles, were all
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: over the jagu um. We're all over Atlanta, Atlanta um,
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: and we get our ass handing to us. I would say,
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: of all the losses again, we can talk about our
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: bad ones, the Colts money line and Vikings money line.
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: The Cult should have won that game. Carson Wentz his
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: turnovers and decisions. The decisions he was making was the
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: reason they didn't win that game. The Vikings, though, the
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: missfield goal, oh my god, the Atlanta one, which launted
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: us for a long time. They were down three with
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: the ball in the third quarter, so I think there's
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: three minutes up in the third quarter. Tampa Bay scored
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: twenty one and answered points. You can't make it up.
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: It hurts, but that's why we do a value based job.
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: And all these people who want all that money, all
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: the chalk bets all day, they lost all the chiefs
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: while I mean, you had to walk off home run
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: with the Ravens. So it's the life and flow of
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: pro and verse. Show're gonna get the knockout blow at
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: the end of the day. Yeah, you gotta stick with
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: your principles. That's the the line. Like it's not all
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: of a sudden like we're only going to bet favorites
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: this week. We're gonna go with the what the numbers
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: are telling us. And when we see the value and
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: and you know, in the long run, if you're doing
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: it right, if you're doing it the way that you
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: know you and I have been doing it for years,
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: then you end up enjoying your betting experience. You are
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: the anomaly, You're the exception to the rule. You're the
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: person who has turned this into a career. Most people
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: are not. Most people shouldn't. Most people should just be thinking,
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: I want to put a few bucks down on the weekend.
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: I want to come out with more than I did
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: at the end of the season. I want to break
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: even at the end of the season. I want to
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: enjoy the experience. That's it. If anyone thinks they're doing
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: this to get rich, this was a very good weekend
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: to explain why you don't do this to get rich.
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: You do this too, Salt the experience, have a little
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: bit more fun. Also, the NFL is getting more and
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: more interesting because the era of of go with your gut,
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: cover your ass coaching is disappearing. And and you saw
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: it with the way the Eagles consistently went for it
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: at the goal line on fourth and goal. It was
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: costing us because we needed the points, but they were like,
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: four seven is worth more than three. I'll have this
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: team backed up, you know. Unfortunately for them, the Niners
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: drove the ball down yards down the field and scored
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: a touchdown, but analytically it was the right call. Miami
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: the same thing, continued to go for it on fourth
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: and goal. The Colts continued to go for it on
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: fourth and goal. The best worked out for US was
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: the Ravens John Harbaugh asking Lamar Jackson, do you want
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: to go for this on fourth and one to end
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: the game? Worked out great for us, but like How
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: does that make us rethink handicapping? How does it make
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: us rethink handicapping totals all this stuff When there is
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: more and more analytics coming into play at the goal
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: line on fourth downs. I believe it's even more of
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: a reason about these money lines on these teams. Um,
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: Tennessee was gonna lose that game, but they went forward
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: on fourth and ten, they got it, and not only
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: did they cover the number, they went out right. If
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: they didn't get it on that fourth down, guess what
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: they would have lost by seven. They wouldn't have covered
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: any of the numbers. So as a value based job,
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: I find myself taking more money lines on these underdogs. Um,
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: it did not work out for me a lot this weekend,
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: like that. The Atlanta one was such false hope where
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: it was like they're down through the ball. The Troit's
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: money line was I think everyone in America was behind
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: that because that whole twenty five dollar back kid where
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: it was like this kid was dollars and seven thousand
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: dollars and first half I was dancing. I was like,
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: this is gonna happen. Like Green Bay's defense overrated, Aaron
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: Rodgers overrated, and they came on the second half, absolutely
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: dominated Detroit and just completely blew that game out. So again,
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: as much as the Joe's won, um, they won some games,
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: it was definitely a split week where the pros won
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: a little bit and the public went a little bit.
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: Was kind of one of those things, uh that the dogs,
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: the dogs showed up at the big big dogs. None
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: of them want outright, which we need for Survivor contest
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: as well. Yeah, so we we're gonna have a very
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: special review at the end of the podcast. Reminder on Thursday,
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: we'll get into Survivor picks or five best picks, etcetera, etcetera.
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: So listen up for Thursday as well. Um, the only
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: coach not playing, the only coach who continues to play
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: cover your ass football. That would be Matt Nagy, who
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: refuses to admit what everybody else in the world can
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: see that Justin Field should be the starting quarterback because
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: he says Andy Dalton will be the starting quarterback if
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: he's healthy. We'll get to that, I promise you. First
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: up on the docket Thursday Night football Bump Bump Bump, Uh,
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: Carolina Panthers at Houston Texans Game open four and a half.
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: Now Texans plus eight, massive home underdog with a team
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: playing without its starting quarterback, which was the only reason
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: really to even think about betting on this team against
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: the Panthers team that now everyone in the world is
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: gonna be over valuating because they did what we said
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: they would do. Cover against the Jets, cover against the Saints.
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: I love this for Houston when it was too rot
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: because this is typical, like you just spoke about, We
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: knew that Carolines would come in flying high. Again. Texas
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: played way better than I gave him any credit before.
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: I thought Cleveland was gonna really show up in that game,
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: and they didn't. Houston hung in that game the entire time.
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: You want to talk about coach blunders that you should
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: watch this clip of the Texans head coach. He had
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: a penalty, he accepted it, and he was He had
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: a fourth and one, and instead of going for you,
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: punted in the middle of the field. So there's still
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: some coaches out there that make these bone head moves
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: on fourth down. But I believe what he said was,
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: I know there's a lot of analytics and football, but
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: I gotta go with my guts sometimes and his gut
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: told him too instead of accepting, instead of declining a
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: penalty and having third and ten, he accepted the penalty
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: for fourth and one and then punted the ball. Yeah,
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: so's a lot of we might be, um, we might
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: be looking back when it's Texas teams. Remember how good
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: they were for those first two weeks and then they
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: just completely fell apart. And I love that the pro
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: and me is like staring at this and going, you
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: gotta take the seven and a half. This is overvalued.
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: But because it's Thursday night, a lot of times I
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: like to just think to myself, how how likely is
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: it for this team to cover this number? And when
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: we're looking at Carolina, you kind of alluded to it.
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: This defense, they might be for real with Carolina, they
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: might have one of the better defense in the league.
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: They completely dominated the Saints. I know the Saints team,
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: we're missing a lot of their coaches, but that that
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: didn't look too flukey to me. That the Carolina's game
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: plan was really sound in that game. And Sam Donald,
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: your guy, you look good in that game as well.
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: And we're just looking at about offense in the town.
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: On both sides of the ball, I think there's a
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: big advantage here with Carolina, and now you're taking to
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: Rod Taylor out and putting in I think a rookie
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: quarterback for Houston. I don't know what they're gonna what
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: they're gonna go with, but if it's if it's the rookie,
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: this is a bad situation because you don't get what
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: maybe one practice this week before the Thursday game, because
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: the for a week for this team not good. Not
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: good for Houston hearing upset spots. So it'll be rare
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: for me to do the Chalky plays. But I'm gonna
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: take this one here with Carolina. I'll take the mind
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: seven and a half. I made this number eight. Yeah,
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: it's a it's a look. I love this Carolina team. Uh,
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: I love that rule. We started thinking about them last year.
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: It's a little bit like the Dolphins two years ago,
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: where we knew the Dolphins in the sort of set
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: the last twelve thirteen games of two thousand nineteen, they
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: were a team you can make money on. You could
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: see in the effort, you could see in the way
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: they were playing defense, you could see the way Brian
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: Flores was coaching. They were gonna be undervalued all year.
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: I felt that way about Carolina last year. I thought
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: we'd get a longer time period to enjoy some value
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: on Carolina. I thought we got I think we got
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: two weeks and that the ship is sailed on that
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: and it's gonna be funny looking back where not that
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: we're gonna say Carolina and Denver both gonna start three
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: and oh, but it's looking that way. One of these
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: teams is completely fall apart. Because you're looking at the schedule,
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: it goes, Okay, Denver is gonna be the Giants. They
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: beat the Jaguars, now they beat the Jets, and then
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: Carolina would beat the Texans, that would beat the Saints,
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: and they would beat the Jets. So it's, uh, it's
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: a hard it's hard to gage these three no teams
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: where Carolina or Denver, it's kind of pick your poison there.
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: One of these teams is gonna fall off massively. And
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: I actually feel more confident in this Carolina team just
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: because of the division they're in, where Denver they're in
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: no way harder division. So people are looking at either
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: team to ride in fade later on the season. I'm
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: gonna definitely be fading Denver later in the year. Alright,
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: good to know this is gonna be one of the
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: most bad games of the day. Los Angeles Chargers at
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: Kansas City Chiefs. The Chargers are six and a half
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: point underdogs on the road at Kansas City, the first
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: game on the Sunday slate. Everything in my bones is
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: telling me I want to take the Chargers here. We
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: love the Chargers here. The Chiefs are a great teams.
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: They're gonna win a lot of games this year. Chiefs
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: don't cover, and they don't have a defense to cover
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: with that, they are always gonna be open to a
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: back door. This team could be run on, they can
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: be passed on. It's never wracking. I don't know what
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: the Chiefs are gonna do. They're always gonna be sucept
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: the role or a good run team. The Chargers coming
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: off last week, that kind of felt like one of
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: those again. The bounces just didn't go their way. They
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: score a touchdown to take a one to seventeen lead,
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: and they just allowed a touchdown and they go back.
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: I think you of missing the field goal. Cowboys drive
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: the field, they kick a field goal, they win the game.
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: It's sick name, but that's that's how it goes and
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: the Chargers team is not gonna be as bad as
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: the public diner precede them, and the Chiefs team is.
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: I do see them to bounce back and win this game.
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: This is way too big on a number. There should
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: have been four and a half. Especially in divisional game
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: you're getting two to three points, especially if this goes
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: back up to seven on this Chargers team. So it's
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: a pro pros versus Joe game. And as a professional
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: and advisional game, you take this big dog here, especially
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: when it has a quarterback that we believe in Herbert.
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: What do you have this rated app four and a half?
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: You do so, so it's it's one of my bigger
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: value games on the Kansas City is always a little
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: bit overvalued just because of my homes. He's he should
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: be overvalued. He's by far the best quarterback in the league.
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: Total on this is fifty five and a half. I
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: lean under because it's divisional where both these teams are
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: gonna know each I think last year when they played
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: each other, it was like a flukey game where um
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: the Chiefs one, like fifteen to fourteen. It was just
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: really low scoring back and forth. It was Herbert's first
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: like official start and uh they went toe to toe
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: last year and played down well. So again, I like
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: the way the Charges match up with this Chiefs team.
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: I will say that justin Herbert hasn't looked as good
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: as he did last year, meaning he made some pretty
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: bad mistakes in that Cowboys game interception in the end zone.
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: The week before, he had made bad mistakes against the
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: Washington Football team through an interception in the red zone
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: towards their goal line in against the Against the Cowboys,
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: they couldn't come back from it. Against the Washington Football team,
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: they got lucky and we're able to come back from it.
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: That doesn't have me a little bit concerned. It's not good,
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: there's no there's no word for that. But if you
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: look at his third down rate, though, there's few players
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: better than the league than if you have a third
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: and ten, he's gonna get you that first down. So
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: I'm just never gonna feel out of this game with
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: Herbert Herbert. Just again. There, I think they're won their
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: first game by four points and they lost last week
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: by three points. They're always gonna be in these games
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: because I do believe it was a quarterback. But yes,
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: these these red zone turnovers are nightmarish for Herbert backers.
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: Do we think this will be one of the games
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: that we're talking about on Sundays or five best? Are
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: we gonna two weeks in a row bet against the
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: Chiefs for our lungs? We might have to because if
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: you've just faded the Chiefs, I think it's like nine
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: last the nine last games they played and they have
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: not covered I believe, or maybe it's eight. Uh, they've
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: just been overvalued and Vegas is happy to do it
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: because the public keeps betting the Chiefs. So if this,
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: if this day is above four and a half five, Chad,
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: that's likely we're gonna have it in the contest. Oh,
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: brother man, it's so hard to bet the NFL. You
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: gotta bounce back so quickly. You can be depressed on
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: Sunday night. By Tuesday morning, you have to re railling.
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: If not Sunday night, you gotta be railing because these
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: lines are coming out. You gotta get the best of
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: the number. Chicago Bears at Cleveland Browns, my beloved Bears
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: on the road numbers barely moved seven and a half
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: point Dogs on the Road at Cleveland justin fields. We
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: hope he will be the starting quarterback. I thought he
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: looked great. I thought he made great throws. I thought
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: he did the typical things that rookies do, held on
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: to the ball too long. But he is so fucking
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: fast around that corner, and he can make the throws
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: that you need to make in the NFL accurate, not afraid,
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: um really strong arm. But this feels high. And then
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: and this number feels high to me, those are a
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: pro trap that we're walking right into. Because I immediately
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: saw this line, I loved it. Bears seven and a
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: half with this defense, I just feel corportal taking this team.
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: We were up twenty two three and we have to
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: sweat out twenty seventeen game because a couple of little
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: mistakes happened here and there in the fields. Interception in
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: his own back of the end zone. It's little things
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: like that and make you nervous with the Bears. But
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: just going strictly off the number, why why do I
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: don't know if it feels with a bookmakers know exactly
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: what they're doing making this seven and a half that
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: they know the public will happily take the seven a
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: half because people just don't believe in the Bears, and
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: they know the pros are happy to take this and
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: half they're both looking at this defense and they're saying
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: this defense can keep them in this game against Cleveland
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: where I don't really have faith in Baker. Baker is
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: not showing me in two games that he's really the
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: type of player to have faith in. And I think
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: a lot is going on there. We're not talking about
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: his head right now. This contract and it's I know,
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: it's like one of those things where people are like, oh,
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: he probably doesn't really care and think about the money.
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: I had to say, it kind of seems like he is.
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: He seems like he's pressing a little bit and he's
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: making throws that they're just not within this the ste
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: Fantski set up for him so it could be field
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: first start on the road. It's a little scary with that.
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: It's a rookie making his first start on the road.
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: But at seven and a half, this big of my number. Again,
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: I don't know if it's any where our best fives,
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: but I can promise you come Sunday, this is a
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: game I will be betting on for the Bears. What's
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: your number? Six? And a half, So it's not that
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: great a value. It's a it's a point, but still
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: that's that's that's a fair number. Six and a half.
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: I think as long as you're getting seven and a
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: half with the Bears, you kind of have to take it. Yeah,
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: I mean you're going through a key number. The point
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: going through a key number is worth considerably more than
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: it days if you're going from you know, a couple
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: of dead numbers, So that has to be taken into consideration.
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: This feels like a game. I almost want to put
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: it out in my head. I don't want to be
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: thinking about this game as a game we're gonna bet
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: because something about it doesn't feel right. But like there's
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: no instinctive edge. Everything you said is true. There's too
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: many going against both teams for me to feel like
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: I have it other than your number, which is a
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: point of value, But I'm not gonna feel that confident
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: about it. Very big challenge. Arizona Cardinals at Jacksonville Jaguars.
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: The overvalued Arizona Cardinals on the road, who opened his
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: two and a half point favorites against the Jags. Now
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: that number is at seven and a half. We are
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: going to be forced to bet the Jacksonville Jaguars again
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: as massive home underdogs against the team that was a
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: field goal away from being one and one. And when
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: there's not if that if that field goal goes in,
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: this number is probably six. Right, So, because that field
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: goal by the Vikings did not go in, there's numbers
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: now seven and a half. The Jags are terrible, like
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: urban Meyer is awful. He doesn't know what he's doing.
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: It was a disgusting display against the Broncos team that
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: should not have covered that game, a game that the
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: jack could have stolen. Tell me why I'm betting this game.
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: I'm so sorry people you have to do this, but
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: you have to bet the Jaguars. There. This is it's
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: not fun, it's not gonna be enjoyable game. But it's
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: just like the Colts last week. Even people that watched
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: that entire Colts game can't tell you how they covered
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: the three and a half against the Rams um but
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: they did. And that's the kind of same situation here
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: with the Jaguars. You have a home dog. Even me
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: and Cha I don't want to bet on this team
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: because we're so burned from them from last week. I mean,
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: ridiculous Trevor Lawrence. I should have stuck to my gut.
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: I remember watching that priests the game. I said, I
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: don't there's something about it. I don't like about hit
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: about Trevor Lawrence. And man, he was awful in that game.
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: I'll have to go through the numbers, but he had
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: one of the lowest, lowest accuracies of all the quarterbacks
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: the entire league. He had thrown some of the least
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: catchable balls all the quarterbacks in the league, and a
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: lot of red flags with urban Urban Meyers adjustments is
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: second half adjustments are just not good. Um, the man
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: truly might be overwhelmed here. So we are going to
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: talk about this game a lot. Um. I already know
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: this is gonna be you know this is This is
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: gonna typical games where I'm gonna hate it all week
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: and then probably end up putting a lot of money
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: on it comes Sunday. But as we sit here on Tuesday,
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: I cannot tell people to bet this game now. I
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: can't tell people put this in their best five picks. Um,
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: too too many things going on right now to really
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: bet this one where I took the seven a half
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: just because I'm worried I might go back to seven.
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: But now is the you know that was Sunday night,
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: now that it's Tuesday, and it's just sat there this
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: whole time. I don't think you need to rush to
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: take this number. So I wouldn't make it. My Sigmon
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: says game of the Day. We still got a signment,
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: says must Bet. I'm surprised. The Sigmon says, wasn't the Chargers.
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: To be honest, it was, But again, I don't want
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: to give these people say better right now because I
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: think again that could go up to seven. Again. It's
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: not only the Pros are gonna be bad in the Chargers,
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: it's that's that's the public's can becoming so heavy on
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: teasers on the Chiefs because again it's at six and
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: a half points now, so you have a six point teaser.
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: All you need is the Chiefs to win after they
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: just lost last week. A lot of traps chat, so
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: many traps. What if we think of the total on
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: the cards Jacks, it's uh fifty one and a half
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: love the over? Uh I am a sucker for pain,
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: just like we took the over where the Vikings and
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: the car was last week. And I might have hit
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: in the first half. Um Cardinals defense has problems. I
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: know they looked like they're all world against the Titans,
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: but it looked like that was just the Titans kind
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: of beating up themselves. The Jaguars we've seen they can
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: move the ball, and Trevor's Lawrence loves to turn the
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: ball over. So you gonna have a lot of short fields,
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: a lot a lot of a lot of points scored
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: in this matchup here. So I definitely will be on
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: the over in this game. You know, if I know
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: the public's are coming to have you on this over,
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna be right there with him. Yeah, right now
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: here over is getting ridiculous. The bets of the money
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: again a little early. You can discount the money a
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: little bit because it's a little could be a pro money,
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: but that is terrifying the money. That's never good. Sometimes
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: when we're doing this show, I feel a little bit
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: like Steve Cornaki or John King in front of the maps.
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: More votes are gonna come in, It's gonna balance out.
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: That's kind of how I feel talking about the percentage
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: of money in bets on a Tuesday. As we head
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: into a Sunday, Washington football team at Buffalo Bills. Wow,
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: this number opened at seven. After the bills dominating performance
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: against Miami, it's up to eight and a half. The
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: total is forty five and a half. Here's my concern
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: the Washington football team. We were in love with their
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: front four and their defense. It kind of looked like
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: ship the first two weeks. Yeah, I hit the Bills
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: right when it came out with the seven, but not
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: because of the defense. Because it's Heineke's first road start
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: as a starter. Again, people forget this kid is undrafted,
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: undrafted quarterback. I love the way you play is uh.
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: He had flashes in that game where he looks like
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: a really good, comfortable quarterback, and these other moments where
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: he looks really bad. You're telling me this kid's making
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: his first road start against the Bills, the Bills mafia
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: after that huge win last week. If they didn't blow
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: out have such a big win last week, I'd be
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: all over this one for us. That's something giving me,
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: Paul is is it's never good to really take the
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: team after they just won thirty five nothing. It's usually
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: the following week it's not gonna be as easy for them.
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: But I have faith because I don't think Josh Allen
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: looked great against Miami fourteen points in the first half.
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: He wasn't throwing and making huge plays over the field.
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: This will be kind of a get right game for him.
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: This is uh, like you just talked about. The Washington
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: Front four hasn't really been doing much. It's just because
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: their secondaries looks so bad. I mean, Daniel Jones just
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: tore them up passing it. And now you have a
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: way better version Josh Allen, who's everything the Giants changes
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: could dream Daniel Jones would be. So we'll wait and
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: see if it comes down a little bit. But right now,
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: that's one of my few favorites that I like with
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: the public here. I like the bills. The bills make
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: me wallus out, get your files upthing town, throw your
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: hands up, then throw your hand back and throw all
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: Now the bills. I'm thinking it happens now, but for
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: now we're not including it in our Winnow it down
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: for Thursday before we winnow it down for Sunday because
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: the numbers a little bit inflated. Yeah, and there's other
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: favorites we like. We're gonna like better. Oh, I didn't
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: know that right now so far, Just to remind people,
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: we're trying to narrow it down. We usually like to
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: have six, seven eight games that we like heading into Thursday,
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: so we can come up with five after the Thursday
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: pod that we are focused in on, and then on
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: Sunday we'll really narrow it down because oftentimes some lines move,
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: and on Sunday we decide what we like the best.
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: I put those picks in the Action Network app so
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: you can follow along there. Indianapolis Cults at Tennessee Titan's
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: Indianapolis Colts not looking good. Carson Wentz I still have
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: no idea why you've ever believed in him, even though
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: they paid us this weekend. He's got two spraying ankles.
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: Who the hell knows what's gonna happen with them. They're
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: five and a half point dogs on the road division
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: game against the Titans. I think we misread these teams.
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: I think the Titans are better than we thought. I
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: think the Coals are gonna be worse than we thought.
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: Carson Wentz is just not a good quarterback. He's on
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: his fourth string left tackle chat. I watched this game.
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: He made every bad decision you commit he never makes
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: a good decision. They scored twenty four points. But yeah,
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: he holds on the ball too long. He's an idiot.
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: I'm right there with you. He's still making mistakes that
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: rookie quarterbacks make. Um. He has regressed completely from the
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: year he almost won the MVP. So I can't fault
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: you in what you're saying there is There is no
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: defense of Carson once anymore. Another truck he played by me.
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: I will be on the Titans here. I know. They
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: just had a big emotional win in Seattle. The coaches
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: have a lot of issues. Man. You can say what
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: you wanted about Carson. He was the best quarterback on
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: that roster. They're gonna take a step back of the
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: quarterback position. Whoever they put in there. I don't know
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: if it's gonna be the rookie or the second year kid.
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: Not good. Not good for the Colts and the total.
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: I liked it at first, like really heavy for the under.
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: But now because it's not gonna be Carson's making a
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: little scared because, like you know, these young kids could
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: come in here and just start turning the bowl over
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: like we saw last week exactly what's had four interceptions. Um,
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: that's why they give me pause. This was gonna be
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: my bigger bets, this under because these guys usually play
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: towards the under. So I'm gonna wait and see, um
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: where this number ends up and what the quarterback situation is.
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: But uh, I don't really like either side that much
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: in this. But my bigger bet and this would be
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: definitely be towards the under. Did you see anything you know?
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: I think we've misread the Titans a little bit. I
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: think they found some kind of success against the Seahawks.
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: The reaction over reaction. They were down fourteen and the
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: fourth like they just had to. I mean, if there
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: wasn't taunting penalties, they never would have got back into
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: this game. They got two first downs on one drive
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: because of taunting penalties. So again, thanks just didn't bounce
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: our way shadow, It's it's only weak too. Don't overreact you.
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: I'm not listen, I'm not overreacting. I'm reacting. There's a difference.
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: There's a difference. I'm reacting and I'm also don't don't
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: try to say to me that I'm panicking. I am
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: the least panicky. Come on, all right, everybody, and That's
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: what I'm talking about. Guys. We've made a great effort
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: so far. Let's just keep it off. That's right. We
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: can't have anyone freak out out there. Okay, you've got
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: a keymark a Polser. It's got too far, it's too much,
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: too that panic. Literally you, I've never seen you be
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: more Joe public than when you text me Sunday night
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: after the Ravens, when you said, funk we needed that.
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: I'm just like, there's sixteen more weeks, Chad, we don't
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: need ship. We can go. I owe five the next
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: couple of weeks. Yeah, I feel oh no, no, no,
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: no listen, but it's like no, no, no, no, no no,
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: don't add Joe cool for the podcast right now. I
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: know even though you were sleeping Sunday night when I
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: texted you, I know that you went to bed sweating
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: and hoping. You tell next to me during the day
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: on Sunday, getting upset about certain games. I don't don't
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: act like you're above it all. I am, though. Literally,
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: you know what happened chat he threw up pick six
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson, I bet more on the Ravens, and then
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: I went to bed. You're right, I went to bed
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: and I got woken up by hundreds of people texting
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: me saying thank you. So I didn't get your thank
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: you text? I got thank god we didn't funk that up. Yeah,
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: I forgot. Maybe my thank you text got lost in
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: the oh. Why the funk do we keep betting the Falcons?
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: When you said, when you said, by the way, good
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: good transition, when you said on Sunday morning, we're gonna
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: put the Falcons in our best five. And if they
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: don't do it again, if they if they do what
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: they did the week before, if they lose again like
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: they lost the week before, we never have to talk
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: about the Falcons again. On a self anointed by you
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: Falcons podcast? Done with Them? Atlanta Falcons at New York
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: Giants Falcons are plus three on the road. Here's the
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: thing I'm back in. How do we not take the
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: Falcons here? How do we not take the Falcons in
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: this game against a terrible Giants team and a terrible
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: Daniel Jones. I'm pissed. We already missed the best of
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: the number. It was three and a half. I know three.
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: This is why I hate our job. We have to
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: take the Falcons here this number should be three. We
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: can wait maybe because of two and a half, and
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: we can take the Giants and try to fade the
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: public because I think everyone has the same mentality as you.
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: It's like this Giants team sucks. Everyone watched them Thursday night.
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: I don't know what to think of this Giants team
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: because it is the trap where Daniel Jones only plays
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: good twice a year. It's Skins Washington football team. So
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: I'm with you. Um, I like the Falcons here, but
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: I refuse to put them in our contests or our
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: best five. It doesn't matter if they're they're there, if
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: they're underdog by thirty points to the Jets. We're not
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: doing it until we see them actually show any signs
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: of life. But it is the right side right now.
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: By the way, the percentage of the bets and the
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: percentage of the money is all on the Falcons. Agree
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: with you. We're gonna the Giants then, yeah, yeah, Like
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: this game is gonna the number is gonna drop, it's
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: gonna go into three. At that point you got about
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: the Giants, Thank god, because I really don't want it better.
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: Like that was. I literally collapsed when they when you
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: threw that second pick six, I go, why what is happening?
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: And the guy hadn't thrown a pick in like six
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: weeks and you threw two picks six in the same
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: game you collapsed. Why why are you getting so upset?
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: We got sixty more weeks. What are you getting upset
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: about it? Because I bet real money. I bet real money.
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: Don't pull your double standard on me. Okay, you panicked
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: with the Falcons. It made you upset. I was excited
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: about the Ravens. I stayed up way past my bedtime
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: to watch it because I knew that my karma, my
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: good will could could bring them to victory. And it happened.
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: You're welcome. I did that for you, even after you
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: bet more money on the money line on the Ravens,
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: because that's what I do. I want us both to win.
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: You didn't need to watch it, though I told you
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: that was a guaranteed winner. That's right. I forgot about that.
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: New Orleans Saints at New England Patriots, the Saints on
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: the road. Oh my god, this game has so much drama.
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: You've got Sean Payton, Bill Parcel's disciple, Bill Belichick, Bill
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: Parcel's disciple, Sean Payton offensive genius. A coach is coach,
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: a guy that everybody loves. Bill Belichick defensive genius, a
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: guy that everybody hates playing with a quarterback who makes
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: no mistakes, doesn't throw the ball downfield against the quarterback
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: who always throws the ball downfield, even into quadruple coverage,
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: and he's falling backwards and he's on one leg and
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: can't see where he's throwing it. Things plus three. I
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: really like the Saints. No, I hate this game. I
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: hate the whole thing. Okay, yeah, I was gonna I
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: just don't think we're gonna take this because it feels
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: like a really smart number. I had this game at three.
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: I just go towards the home team here and I'll
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: be on the Patriots. Um, but this isn't very I
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: don't see a lot of value in this game. Either
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: team could truly win this. Jamis Winston though, Wow, he
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: really really looked bad against Carolina. I know he's not
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: that bad, but kind of gave me like PTSD flashbacks
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: to his days in the Pampa Bay and it's like, Okay,
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: maybe we maybe we did think. Um, he'sn't exactly who
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: we thought he was. I think he'll be better than
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: he was against Carolina. But we have to trust Belichick
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: at home here with this defense that he has his
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: guys ready for this kind of matchup. So we'll we'll
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: take the Patriots, but there's not much value in this
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: line total is forty one and a half. Tiny, tiny number.
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: The Patriots have played with the under in two games
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: so far this year, about the same number. Saint or
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: tune out to the under as well. Yeah, but they
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: also scored thirty eight points in one game. Yeah, but
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: luckily Green Bay scored three. Yeah. Yeah, like the under.
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: But it's it's these load totals are always scarier. I
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: don't I don't put a lot on them. But this
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: is this is a good under matchup where Winston cannot
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: show up again, and we just haven't seen mac Jones
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: really show that he can score a lot of points.
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: He kind of just seems to be a game manager,
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: not the kind of guy that's gonna be thrown it
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: downfield a lot so well, or not even throw it downfield.
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: I mean, and he's not he's not taking the chances
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: to throw downfield. He's only looking for the checkdowns, the underneath,
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: the five yards instead of trying to get for fifty yards. Well,
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: it was interesting because he did have a couple of
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: different times like when I watched the game, but he
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: did and a deep deep throw, he didn't wait on it.
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: He just took the easy checkdown and White or you
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: just like you just said, he's taking a lower throat.
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: So maybe that's more about Max just not trying to
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: lose the game than win the game. I think it's
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: the instruction that he's getting. Yeah. Baltimore Ravens at Detroit Lions. Alright,
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: so the Lions played last night. It's Tuesday afternoon. We're
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: looking at the Ravens visiting the Lions. Ravens right now,
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: looks like they're about seven and a half. I'm seeing
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: a nine out there, but consensus line line at FanDuel
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: Ravens minus seven and a half. Look, this Lions team
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: is really interesting. They're playing with a lot more energy
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: and passion and less incompetence so far in two halves
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: then I thought we'd see but then in two other
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: halves they're completely incompetent. Right. The second half of the
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: Niners game amazing, The first half of the Packers game amazing.
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: Second half of the Packers game, first half of the
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: Niners game. They look like a team coach by a
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: guy who wants to bite kneecaps. So this team is Detroit.
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: We're gonna kick you in the teeth, and when you
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: punch this, we're gonna smile at you. And when you
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: knock us down, we're gonna get up. And on the
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: way up, we're gonna buy a knee cap off. All right,
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: We're gonna take your other knee cap. Before long, we're
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: theyre going to be the last one standing. We finally
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: get to see the Ravens play a bad team. It's
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: been two weeks. They played Oakland, who Las Vegas Raiders
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: who turned up to be a good team. Uh, they
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: played the Chiefs, so we all think is a good team.
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: Now they finally get the lines, so we all know
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: kind of suck. And we've seen it last year, the
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: year before, the year before that. Lamar destroys bad teams.
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: So it's interesting where this betting is kind of split
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: a little bit. I think it's like right below six
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: of um the money and the bets coming in on
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: the Ravens. Interesting where I thought more people would be
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: on the Ravens after such a big win. But I
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: guess people really do like what they saw the Lines
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: that said they could be competitive game. Um, I think
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: it's the other way. I think the Ravens kind of
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: a turn the corner there. People people gave it too much.
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: We're like, oh, look they look like they won their
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: Super Bowl. Look how excited and half they are like
• 34:27
  Speaker 1: going crazy. It's like, I mean, we didn't we just
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: see that with Las Vegas. We might have put too
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: much into that where it's like, look at that when
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: they had over the Ravens and they went into Pittsburgh
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: and just absolutely dominated. I just want to put too
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: much into them celebrating um like other people are. I
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: think that doesn't really matter as much, so as long
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: as just stays below what I haven't that I have
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: at nine and a half, I like this number for
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: the Ravens. Um. The Lines are a good team that
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: can can do something like do things where other teams
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: aren't gonna be able to handle. Where they have a
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: big D line and they have a big old line.
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: The Ravens a pretty much fil the exact same way,
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: but they have Lamar Jackson running that offense. So I love,
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: I love, love love UM the ravensurance. We'll talk about Thursday.
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: This might be one of our survivor picks because the
• 35:12
  Speaker 1: Ravens don't have that many easy games coming up this year.
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: This goes against everything you believe in. Yeah, with home dogs,
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: can't always can't always think. It's like we got smacked
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: around last week about those home dogs where it was like,
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: I I told you before our games you've kicked off,
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: I said, Chad, I have way too many I have
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: way too much skewed to where these home teams I
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: think that road teams I'm gonna eleven of five against
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: the spread. Um, I just don't get caught with that
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: same situation where it goes, Okay, Detroit his home. They
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: have good fans, but does that really make that much
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: of a difference to this. Probably not. They don't there
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: The Detroit fan base has been through enough. Um It's
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: it's one of those where I need to kind of
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: pull back my fan theory that the fans really dictate
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: and can change a game where it doesn't really look
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: that way. It looks like these teams are just as
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: fine running a silent snap. County are snapping it out
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: the line. So I know you're I know you're staying here, chat.
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: I do love taking home dogs. But we can't take
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: aby home dog, right we we we gotta fade some
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: of them. We can't take every home dog, but fading
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: like a near a home dog more than a touchdown,
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: no joke. I don't think we've ever done that. I
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: think like we we laugh at people who do that.
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: You're calling me a square This is a square play.
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: We deal with the Patriots against the Jets last year.
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: I believe that one b fuck you and your memory
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: right now, I should put a circle in a square
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: around Baltimore and added to our list of potential games
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: along with the Chargers plus six and a half and
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: the Jags plus seven and a half. That is a big,
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: big number to be taking for the Baltimore Ravens on
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: a short week on the road as more than a
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: touchdown favorite. We still have not gotten to the Simon
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: says that I'm very excited to see what that is.
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: By the way, the total in this game forty nine
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: and a half, over over over over lines. They can
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: actually put up some points. I know they kind of
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: spun their tires there. They only scored. They scored seventeen.
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: The first half and then zero in the second half.
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: They still look good moving the ball up and down
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: the field. I think golf still makes the right decision
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: around then. And we love Lamar against bad teams. The
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: guy just scres so many points. Love the matchup Cincinnati
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers. So the Bengals are four and
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: a half point underdogs here, Steelers getting everything right now
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: again early, A lot of precincts to report, but Steelers
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: getting all the money, all the bets. This is my
• 37:38
  Speaker 1: signmon says play of the week. Oh God, Simon signs,
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: do it? We do what science says? Oh my god,
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: I was I was so afraid you were going to
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: say that. I am my God. Give your logic, give
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: me some data, give me something I can hang my
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: hat on, Give me a reason to believe. There's a
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: lot of trends that do go towards the Bengals side.
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: But the biggest, the biggest glaring thing to me is
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: just the injuries for the Steelers. Uh. They had a
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: couple of guys get here on the offensive line, TJ.
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: Watts hurt. They had another guy go down the defense,
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: I think Deante Johnson. The roar receiver got hurt as well.
• 38:21
  Speaker 1: This Bengal team is not that good. I'm with people,
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: but neither is Pittsburgh. That the offense has major issues.
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: And I've seen it with again, we talked all the time.
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: I thought the Bengals made a big mistake taking the
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: wide receiver over the offensive ligneman. He's been sacked nine
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: times now, Joe Burrow through two weeks. That is not good. Okay,
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: this guy's coming off major injury. Now he's been sacked
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: two weeks in a row. But what I did see
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: from him is that that never die attitude where this
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: kid's gonna keep slugging, He's gonna keep throwing. This offense
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: can move the ball, and I like it that they
• 38:52
  Speaker 1: can move the ball much better than this Pittsburgh tea
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: where Pittsburgh is kind of feeling like they're one dimensional.
• 38:56
  Speaker 1: They really depend on this run game and doing play
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: action pass off that run game. Bengals don't have that problem.
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: Joe bro can sling the ball up and down the
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: field with ease. So four and a half in a
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: divisional game when this number should just be three. I do.
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: I really like the Bengals here chat. So this this
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: for me is my my Simon says, player of the week.
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: Do you have a power rated at three? Yea at
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: a power rated three. What are the trends you've seen
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: that you like. I saw a trend that I really
• 39:25
  Speaker 1: like that was about teams that lost that are now
• 39:28
  Speaker 1: playing a road game, so it's back to back road games.
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: For the second game is the divisional game. So it
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: was something like that. I had to check that labs
• 39:34
  Speaker 1: again because I saw it um Monday morning, but I
• 39:37
  Speaker 1: might in fifty percent of the time and the divisional thing,
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: the team wins outright, and then it was like sixty
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: five percent time they cover. So this is one of
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: these do we just like taking the divisional road team
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: here because this nine should be a much smaller than
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: it is. But the public just saw since then I
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: lay a huge egg against the Bears and with Pittsburgh,
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: people still believe it. Like I, I kind of got
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: caught up in the hype as well, where it's like, man,
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: this defense, they're they're a real game changer. But with
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: all the injuries. I mean again, t J. Watt, that's
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: that's by far their best player on their team. He
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: was all over Josh Allen that Buffalo matchup without him,
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: without Buddy Pree who left for a different team. That's
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: just that's too much for the Pittsburgh overcome. Jesus Christ,
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: this makes me sick. When's what's this is when betting
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: is the grossest, It's just terrible. All right, We're heading
• 40:35
  Speaker 1: into a late afternoon games. First up, New York Jets
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: at Denver Broncos best in the league, Teddy covers Bridgewater.
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: The look aheadline on this just saying, folks, the look aheadline,
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: which is the line that was posted a couple of
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: weeks ago. It was five and a half. This line
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: is now ten and a half. God, I want to
• 40:59
  Speaker 1: take the Jets so bad, like so bad can we?
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: Luckily I made this line ten um, so the the
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: sharps have come in. They bed it down from eleven
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: and a half to ten and a half. Now I
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: don't need to touch it. I'll hopefully this can listen.
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: Number We'll get to ten so I can finally take
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: Denver and at worst case maybe get a Bush. But
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: everything points to Denver. Here Denvers d line alone, excuse
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: this game totally. Where the Jets have right now the
• 41:25
  Speaker 1: great out is the third worst old line Zach Wilson
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: just being put into the worst of the worst situation.
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: Someone was talking about why why didn't the Jets just
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: keep Donald and then drafted pieces around them? Okay, you
• 41:38
  Speaker 1: guys needed alignement, you need a wide receivers. There's so
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: many things lacking where no matter what rookie quarterback theyre
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: brought in there, they just haven't put them in the
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: best the best position to win. And this, this is
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: a very big number. But this again, this sing these
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: teams were mean you were gonna talk about taking Denver
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: for Survivor because this is a great, great opportunity their
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: first home game. Like ainst the Jets, I cannot see
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: Teddy Bridgewall and Denver losing this game. So we we
• 42:06
  Speaker 1: will be on the number if he gets to tend.
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: But we will definitely be you know, this is probably
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: our top two we'll talk about for our Survivor picks. Yeah,
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: we're just gonna this will not be in the conversation
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: for our final five. No, it's too big, too big.
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders. The Miami Dolphins, who
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: have broken our heart are four point dogs. I'm incredibly
• 42:30
  Speaker 1: disenchanted by this team, right now, really, I love Miami here,
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: I need help chat. I know, I know, we don't
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: even know if he's going to be playing quarterback for them.
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: Who's gonna be paying for the Las Vegas Raiders their car?
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: This he might be actually hurt. And I jumped on
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: this a four and a half just for that exact reason.
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: I took the money line as well from Miami. He
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: might be pretty banged up and they might not be
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: letting onto how serious his injury is. Jacoby were set.
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: He's healthy. I mean, he's not good for Miami, but
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: he is healthy. Um, ugly, ugly game. I know I'm
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: gonna have a hard time commits you to put this
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: in our five. But this is a classic overreaction. Miami
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: is not as bad as they looked against Buffalo. Um,
• 43:10
  Speaker 1: everything just went wrong in that game. Las Vegas isn't
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: as good as people think they are. Are we sure
• 43:16
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh is really that good? Or they just get lucky
• 43:18
  Speaker 1: against Buffalo and they had a block punt and Josh
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: Allen just couldn't figure it out a lot. It's it's
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: just a big kind of um, not that egg on
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: my face, but this is like a this is truly
• 43:29
  Speaker 1: a PROS game. No, no one else is betting Miami
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: unless they're a professional better. No, no one that watched
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: football last week is gonna say themselves, Oh no, this
• 43:37
  Speaker 1: is the time to take Miami against Las Vegas. Like
• 43:40
  Speaker 1: Las Vegas people, this is you've you've heard the hype.
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: People are really starting to get all in on this
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: Las Vegas team now that they're doing a I have
• 43:47
  Speaker 1: to stick the numbers, and I made this number three.
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: I leaned towards three and a half. If it's per set,
• 43:52
  Speaker 1: that's like the scary part. There's not that much of
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: a drop off between him and tua Um, but it's
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: it's just too much overvalue with the Las Vegas team.
• 44:01
  Speaker 1: They they are a very good, well oiled team, but
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: are they that good that this Miami defense, which we
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: talked about their strength, is that secondary. Going against a
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: team that their strength is their passing offense, it usually
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: favorites towards that um towards that team with Miami. So
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: I will wait and see what this one chat. I
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: won't make you make a decision right now, but we
• 44:23
  Speaker 1: like this a lot of four or four and a
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: half with Miami. Simon says, absolutely bet the Bengals, and
• 44:30
  Speaker 1: then he comes back and says, Hey, by the way,
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: I also think I want you to take the quarterback
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: list Miami Dolphins who basically got shut out against the
• 44:40
  Speaker 1: Buffalo Bills at home. You want me to take them
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: on the road at Las Vegas. As I think about it,
• 44:49
  Speaker 1: couldn't make more sense. I'm not a buyer on the Raiders.
• 44:51
  Speaker 1: I I haven't been impressed, Like I don't love them
• 44:55
  Speaker 1: as a as a I haven't been impressed with how
• 44:59
  Speaker 1: the Raiders are coached. Gruden usually falls apart the second
• 45:02
  Speaker 1: half of the season, so it might be we might
• 45:04
  Speaker 1: be a little too early to the party, be trying
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: to fade him. Um, but man, have we seen it
• 45:09
  Speaker 1: his is I think it's the last three years he's
• 45:11
  Speaker 1: coached them, they have just fallen apart in the second
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: half of the season. That's why I'm still fine with
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: thinking that. You know, our our our biggest Derrick Car
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: investment was we we made staking LEAs bet then when
• 45:22
  Speaker 1: the Super Bowl because we thought Watson was going there.
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: But then we like, we like Car coming to the year.
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: We bet him for his over of yards and I
• 45:29
  Speaker 1: think he's like up a hundred right now and the
• 45:30
  Speaker 1: closest guy in yards past this season. So we we
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: are we are fans of Las Vegas Raiders, but in
• 45:36
  Speaker 1: this game, this matchup, this is too big of a
• 45:39
  Speaker 1: number for a team like this, so we we will
• 45:41
  Speaker 1: will be on them. What do you have up? Like
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: I said, I headed at three when it was to
• 45:46
  Speaker 1: h and then moved up to three and a half
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: when it came out. That's probably be brus set um
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: because I think two has bruised lungs or something like
• 45:52
  Speaker 1: that brew rib cage. So it's uh, it's not looking
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: good for two of playing in this game. This next game,
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: Tampa Bay Buccaneer at Los Angeles Rams. This game opened
• 46:03
  Speaker 1: with the Buccaneers is one point underdogs. It was a
• 46:07
  Speaker 1: big to do in the sports betting world. The Buccaneers
• 46:10
  Speaker 1: are now one point in favorites. So much fun. This
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: is by far the most fun game of the year. Right, Yes,
• 46:16
  Speaker 1: this is the best best matchup. The two most hyped
• 46:19
  Speaker 1: up teams right now in the NFC are the Rams
• 46:22
  Speaker 1: and the Buccaneers for good reason. Um wow, that's that's
• 46:26
  Speaker 1: surprising it's moved that much Because I was gonna say
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: my favorite stat, Tom Brady, I think He's and twelve
• 46:31
  Speaker 1: as an underdog against the spread. I love that. Uh,
• 46:35
  Speaker 1: you know we're doing here, Chad. We gotta take the
• 46:37
  Speaker 1: Rams home dog. Public's coming in. Have you on the
• 46:41
  Speaker 1: Buccaneers the same reason I like Atlanta last week? There
• 46:44
  Speaker 1: there's a lot of holes and weaknesses on this Buccaneers
• 46:47
  Speaker 1: team in that secondary. They've just been banged up in
• 46:49
  Speaker 1: that position. It's just bad luck right now. So the
• 46:53
  Speaker 1: run scheme, the past scheme that the Rams are gonna
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: do against our front line of the Buccaneers will make
• 46:58
  Speaker 1: the big difference. But the big swin Stafford. I just
• 47:01
  Speaker 1: have faith in Stafford. With Cooper Cup, with Robert woods Man,
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: they just look like a well older machine right now
• 47:07
  Speaker 1: with the Rams. And that last week that was a
• 47:09
  Speaker 1: trap game. They should have lost that game. If that
• 47:11
  Speaker 1: was Jared Golf, they would have lost that game, no
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: doubt in my mind. But we've seen Stafford us a
• 47:15
  Speaker 1: difference maker for this team right now. So we know
• 47:18
  Speaker 1: the Buccaneers are gonna aren't going undefeated. They just aren't.
• 47:21
  Speaker 1: Last year they were the fifth seed for good reason.
• 47:23
  Speaker 1: They just dropped games every now and then it feels
• 47:25
  Speaker 1: the game they're gonna drop and the fact the public's
• 47:27
  Speaker 1: come in so heavy on them. It's even more of reasons.
• 47:30
  Speaker 1: I really like the Rams here. So I won't make
• 47:33
  Speaker 1: you say right now, Chad, but you know you like
• 47:36
  Speaker 1: this for one of our five. This is just again
• 47:39
  Speaker 1: a pros versus show's game. The pros are all gonna
• 47:41
  Speaker 1: be on the Rams here, So I won't make you
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: make decision now, but come Thursday, I'm probably gonna make
• 47:46
  Speaker 1: you make one. I don't actually mind this one, You
• 47:49
  Speaker 1: don't know. I mean, look, I'm not a believer in Stafford,
• 47:52
  Speaker 1: yet I think he still makes bad decisions, and I
• 47:55
  Speaker 1: think that there will be a thrower to no matter
• 47:59
  Speaker 1: how bad the Bucks set. And there is where Stafford
• 48:01
  Speaker 1: sort of forgets the context of the game. I still
• 48:05
  Speaker 1: think getting the Rams, who are a solid team all
• 48:07
  Speaker 1: the way around and have a great pass rusher and
• 48:10
  Speaker 1: Aaron Donald and a great all world defensive back in
• 48:14
  Speaker 1: Jalen Ramsey, this is this is a good play as
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: an underdog, and it might even go higher. It could
• 48:19
  Speaker 1: get to one and a half. You don't know, I
• 48:21
  Speaker 1: like this play. Let's let's uh, let's put on your
• 48:24
  Speaker 1: list that as one of our guaranteed five. I've boxed it.
• 48:28
  Speaker 1: I don't know guaranteed, but I've definitely boxed it. Um
• 48:31
  Speaker 1: totals fifty five. That's a big lean towards the over.
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: But I won't make a play on this most like
• 48:37
  Speaker 1: that's that's that's a little rich from my Seattle Seahawks
• 48:41
  Speaker 1: at Minnesota Vikings. I gotta say it, Minnesota Vikings. The
• 48:52
  Speaker 1: Seahawks are one and a half two point favorites. The
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: Vikings as a home fields juicy and delicious. I would
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: love to call a free money, but it's Kirk Cousins,
• 49:06
  Speaker 1: so I had to be careful with what I say.
• 49:09
  Speaker 1: But it is the right side. You bet this every
• 49:11
  Speaker 1: time people, every time we have Minnesota coming off two
• 49:16
  Speaker 1: games on the road, they are so incredibly better against
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: the spread at home under Zimmer everything the defense always
• 49:24
  Speaker 1: plays better, the offense always plays better. That place is
• 49:27
  Speaker 1: going to be allowed. Love it, love it, love it,
• 49:30
  Speaker 1: love it. Um. I get white. People have been Seattle.
• 49:32
  Speaker 1: You expect Seattle bounce back after that embarrassing loss. I
• 49:35
  Speaker 1: think they were like uh fift oh or something crazy
• 49:39
  Speaker 1: like that. In Seattle when they have a fourteen point
• 49:41
  Speaker 1: lead or fifteen point lead late in the fourth, I'm
• 49:44
  Speaker 1: gonna fade that bounce back. I think Minnesota actually bounce
• 49:46
  Speaker 1: back after that missfield goal, or we could be completely
• 49:48
  Speaker 1: wrong in Minnesota's season is completely tanked because of that
• 49:51
  Speaker 1: missfield goal, like their team just given up. But we
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: have to take Minnesota at home their first game at home.
• 49:57
  Speaker 1: Under Zimmer. You always take Minnesota at home in this position.
• 50:00
  Speaker 1: So I love, love this one chat. I'm really hoping
• 50:03
  Speaker 1: it gets two and a half. It's the public is
• 50:05
  Speaker 1: gonna be coming in very heavy on the Seahawks in
• 50:07
  Speaker 1: this game. Yeah, it's all it's all Seattle money in
• 50:11
  Speaker 1: best right now and again very early in the week,
• 50:14
  Speaker 1: all priestincts not reporting. But this will be a game
• 50:16
  Speaker 1: come Thursday, when the money and the bets start to
• 50:19
  Speaker 1: round out a little bit, the numbers coming around the shape,
• 50:21
  Speaker 1: we are going to be looking at the vikings because
• 50:25
  Speaker 1: you know why, uh, Green Bay Packers at San Francisco
• 50:33
  Speaker 1: forty Niners. Right now, the spread in this game Packers
• 50:37
  Speaker 1: plus three and a half. We are getting a lot
• 50:39
  Speaker 1: of comments on the Twitter sphere about our lack of
• 50:44
  Speaker 1: willingness to back the Niners. Really, people, because this is
• 50:46
  Speaker 1: my big balls better the week, Big balls Better the
• 50:51
  Speaker 1: Week Oh man, what is it? Love love, love the
• 50:58
  Speaker 1: fots in this position, congratitating Rodgers had a big win
• 51:02
  Speaker 1: on Monday night. Everyone's feeling good, everyone's all happy having
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: fun with him on Twitter. No, this is this is
• 51:09
  Speaker 1: when you fade Aaron Rodgers after that kind of win.
• 51:12
  Speaker 1: I don't like people talked about how you can't win
• 51:14
  Speaker 1: in Florida. This dude cannot win in California, let alone
• 51:17
  Speaker 1: against the fourty Niners. He never plays well against the
• 51:20
  Speaker 1: fourty Niners. We love Kyle Shanon's run block scheme against
• 51:23
  Speaker 1: this Green Bay's defense, who cannot stop the run? Even
• 51:27
  Speaker 1: Detroit is running all over them. Man again forty They
• 51:32
  Speaker 1: escaped one last week against Eagles. They they definitely should
• 51:35
  Speaker 1: have lost that game, but it was all because I
• 51:37
  Speaker 1: felt like this was a good look ahead spot for them,
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: and turned out the Eagles were looking at towards Dallas
• 51:42
  Speaker 1: because that was like you scored three points at home
• 51:45
  Speaker 1: late into the fourth quarter, where the Eagles did That's embarrassing.
• 51:48
  Speaker 1: This is the other way. Four Niners they did what
• 51:50
  Speaker 1: they had to do win that game. Now, I mean,
• 51:54
  Speaker 1: people are gonna be going crazy thinking themselves, Wow, I'm
• 51:56
  Speaker 1: getting Aaron Rodgers plus three and a half on the
• 51:59
  Speaker 1: road here, it's it's sometimes it feels a little too easy,
• 52:02
  Speaker 1: like the sports books do the work for us, and
• 52:04
  Speaker 1: that's and this instinct feels like that way where you're
• 52:06
  Speaker 1: you're getting a good number and the pub is coming
• 52:08
  Speaker 1: in very heavy on Green Bay as long as it
• 52:10
  Speaker 1: stays under four with the forty nine ers. So if
• 52:13
  Speaker 1: things went up to minus four, I would still take it,
• 52:15
  Speaker 1: but I wouldn't be put in the our best five picks.
• 52:18
  Speaker 1: This stays a three and a half or goes down
• 52:19
  Speaker 1: to three, you can guarantee this will be one of
• 52:22
  Speaker 1: me and Chad's best five picks. Well right now, you're right,
• 52:25
  Speaker 1: I mean again, so early, all of that's all the
• 52:27
  Speaker 1: money coming in on the Packers. In fact, we've got
• 52:31
  Speaker 1: a line change. Line change back to the old days
• 52:35
  Speaker 1: with Scooch. I'm what I'm looking at the board in
• 52:37
  Speaker 1: action network dot com and it tracks everything. I'm looking
• 52:41
  Speaker 1: at the public betting page on Action network dot com.
• 52:44
  Speaker 1: Everyone should check it out because it tells me in
• 52:47
  Speaker 1: real time when lines change. And so literally, as we
• 52:52
  Speaker 1: were talking, the price on the Packers at plus three
• 52:55
  Speaker 1: and a half changed, meaning that it's headed to words
• 53:00
  Speaker 1: going to minus three, So that's really interesting. I love
• 53:04
  Speaker 1: this number and I love this game. It's not that
• 53:07
  Speaker 1: I am saying this is like one of my favorite
• 53:09
  Speaker 1: bets of the weekend, but it's one of the few
• 53:11
  Speaker 1: times where I'm been a favorite. I'm feeling really confident
• 53:13
  Speaker 1: about that favorite that it's it's too too much slanted
• 53:17
  Speaker 1: towards the other side. Where Green Bay they I think
• 53:19
  Speaker 1: they had major issues, Like they were literally down seventeen
• 53:22
  Speaker 1: to fourteen to that Lions team who we don't think
• 53:24
  Speaker 1: is that good. So it's too it's gonna be too
• 53:27
  Speaker 1: much for them overcoming the situation. We've loved the last
• 53:31
  Speaker 1: four games. We love Miami plus four. We love the
• 53:33
  Speaker 1: Rams plus one. We love the Fikes plus two. We
• 53:35
  Speaker 1: like the Niners minus three and a half. Not to
• 53:37
  Speaker 1: mention we already like the Jacks plus seven and a half,
• 53:39
  Speaker 1: the Chargers plus six and a half, the Bengals plus
• 53:42
  Speaker 1: four and a half was a Simon says Baltimore plus
• 53:45
  Speaker 1: minus seven and a half. I mean, Jesus Christ, Simon,
• 53:47
  Speaker 1: We're all over the fucking board here. Last I make
• 53:50
  Speaker 1: a lot of bets man earlier in the week. It's
• 53:51
  Speaker 1: what I do that's what we do. It's what we do,
• 53:57
  Speaker 1: and now a word from our friends at FanDuel. The
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• 55:52
  Speaker 1: Let's get back to the show. Last game on the board,
• 55:56
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys Monday Night. You just said
• 56:01
  Speaker 1: the Eagles were looking ahead potentially in that Niners game.
• 56:04
  Speaker 1: Four point dogs on the road. I gotta take the
• 56:07
  Speaker 1: egos here, uh coin flip game. Eagles are as bad
• 56:10
  Speaker 1: as they looked in that game. The the you know
• 56:14
  Speaker 1: hurt how to touchdowns a deep ball the guy gone
• 56:16
  Speaker 1: out of balance and caught it. Had another deep where
• 56:18
  Speaker 1: the guy took it all way down, he got tackled
• 56:20
  Speaker 1: like five or the six, and they couldn't put it
• 56:21
  Speaker 1: four tries in from the one and scoring that drive.
• 56:26
  Speaker 1: I I will admit it, I was too down on
• 56:29
  Speaker 1: this Dallas Dallas defense coming of the year. Um that
• 56:32
  Speaker 1: it seems like they have made the right adjustments with
• 56:35
  Speaker 1: Gus Bradley, He's he's coming and really reshape the Stallas defense.
• 56:39
  Speaker 1: I also don't want to give him too much credit.
• 56:41
  Speaker 1: Um the Charges kind of laid an egg in that game.
• 56:43
  Speaker 1: So I like this with the Eagles will always kind
• 56:46
  Speaker 1: of being in this matchup and always being in this game,
• 56:48
  Speaker 1: especially effect they're on the road now after a really
• 56:51
  Speaker 1: tough loss like that. It's kind of not the perfect
• 56:55
  Speaker 1: situation for the Eagles to be in, but it is
• 56:57
  Speaker 1: because now this is like, you know, a must win
• 57:00
  Speaker 1: aim for this team against someone I expect them to
• 57:03
  Speaker 1: compete against in the divisional race here, So it's gonna
• 57:06
  Speaker 1: it's up to four and out a lot of books
• 57:08
  Speaker 1: with the Eagles. You take that number and a divisional matchup,
• 57:11
  Speaker 1: and I would wait on it. I think you could
• 57:14
  Speaker 1: actually get this up to four and a half because
• 57:16
  Speaker 1: the public will keep coming on Dallas, especially after that
• 57:18
  Speaker 1: big win last week for them. The Dallas fan base,
• 57:21
  Speaker 1: they love to bet on their team, so you might
• 57:24
  Speaker 1: be able to get a better number in the public
• 57:25
  Speaker 1: just keeps coming on the Cowboys here. But I need
• 57:27
  Speaker 1: to see more from this Eagos team before I can
• 57:29
  Speaker 1: make an opinion on it, So I'm good with taking
• 57:31
  Speaker 1: the egos by would not put this is my favorite five.
• 57:33
  Speaker 1: I probably would stay away from this one. Yeah, alright.
• 57:37
  Speaker 1: To review big balls bet of the week, we're going
• 57:41
  Speaker 1: with the Niners minus three and a half. The Simon
• 57:44
  Speaker 1: says that is the Bengals plus four and a half
• 57:48
  Speaker 1: against the Pittsburgh Steelers. We've narrowed down our early bets
• 57:52
  Speaker 1: list that we will discuss on Thursday, and we know
• 57:54
  Speaker 1: it down even more. Chargers at the Chiefs plus six
• 57:58
  Speaker 1: and a half the Jazz Aggs, which is gross plus
• 58:01
  Speaker 1: seven and a half at home against Arizona Baltimore at Detroit.
• 58:06
  Speaker 1: Then we gotta run in the late games. We gotta run.
• 58:09
  Speaker 1: Miami plus four and a half at Las Vegas Rams
• 58:12
  Speaker 1: plus one at home against the Box Vikes, plus two
• 58:16
  Speaker 1: at home against the Seahawks. Niners minus three and a
• 58:18
  Speaker 1: half at home against the Packers. Will review all this
• 58:20
  Speaker 1: on Thursday. Let me read you a review. This is
• 58:24
  Speaker 1: from help Me. I'm broke, and it's like this person
• 58:27
  Speaker 1: reached into my soul and said the meanest thing that
• 58:29
  Speaker 1: could possibly say. Five star review titled Chad is like Mattnege.
• 58:34
  Speaker 1: Chad disagreeing with Simon, who was the professional NFL better
• 58:37
  Speaker 1: on picks like Denver minus three is just like Mattnege
• 58:41
  Speaker 1: thinking Andy Dalton gives the Bears a better chance to
• 58:43
  Speaker 1: win over Justin Fields. Thankfully, most listeners are not like
• 58:47
  Speaker 1: Chad and Mattnege. We listened to the professional better. Matt
• 58:52
  Speaker 1: Mitchell slacked that to me in you last night. My
• 58:55
  Speaker 1: only comment was, this is the most hurtful thing anyone
• 58:57
  Speaker 1: who has ever said to me, any response to a
• 59:00
  Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell Simon. All these reviewers I was reading through
• 59:03
  Speaker 1: a bunch of them, They're just hilarious on these people.
• 59:05
  Speaker 1: But I'm sorry, Chad that the truth does hurt a
• 59:08
  Speaker 1: little bit. I'm not fucking mattni again. I'm not to
• 59:10
  Speaker 1: cover my ask coach. Okay, I go big risk. Nobody
• 59:14
  Speaker 1: can say I don't go big risk. And I'll remind
• 59:16
  Speaker 1: you that the most shruitful comments I've ever read is
• 59:19
  Speaker 1: when that guy called me the Cliff Kingsbury a podcast producers.
• 59:22
  Speaker 1: Words can hurt too, listeners. That's right, Words can hurt.
• 59:26
  Speaker 1: Comparisons to coaches that we can't stand can really hurt.
• 59:29
  Speaker 1: All Right, I think we've done it all. We'll be
• 59:31
  Speaker 1: back on Thursday. We will narrow down our pics. We
• 59:34
  Speaker 1: will talk about our survivor until Thursday. For Simon Hunter,
• 59:39
  Speaker 1: I am Chad Mewman. This has been the favorite podcast.
• 59:42
  Speaker 1: Download us from Apple Podcast, download us from Spotify, wherever
• 59:46
  Speaker 1: you can get your podcasts. Until Thursday. I love you