Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / NFL Wildcard Weekend Gambling Preview

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NFL Wildcard Weekend Gambling Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

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  Speaker 1: The favorite podcast is presented by fan Duel sports Book.
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• 1:25
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network.
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: I'm Shad Milman, Chief Continent Officer the Action Network. It
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: is Tuesday, the week before wild Card weekend NFL. We
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: head into a new adventure of betting on the postseason.
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: We will recap a little bit of what we did
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: in week eighteen. Me Simon Hunter, my bff maka Padre
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: Professional better dude, Sunday, what's your birthday? Happy? The later
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: birthday you spent it? Oh, my friend. It was the
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: first day of betting in New York State. Huge day
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  Speaker 1: for the Action Network, Huge day for sports fans, Huge
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  Speaker 1: day for people who were betting a New York state
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: and using the free offers they were getting to bet
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: on the Jags money line. We joked via text, just
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: talking about how big of a day is for Action,
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: Like you were just pumping out those those New York promos.
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  Speaker 1: I usually don't do that bullshit, but Chad's like, please
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  Speaker 1: you send to me a person. I know it's a
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: big deal sending out that promo. I think one third
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: of my clients who I get picks to our New
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: Yorkers and they were just going crazy, just the whole
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: fact that you can just sit at home on your
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: couch making these bets like me and Chad, No, we're
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: living the good life. It's there's nothing better. There really
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: is nothing better than sitting on your couch making bets.
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: It's pretty fascinating because obviously I got to experience it
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  Speaker 1: for the first time this fall with Connecticut New York
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  Speaker 1: was coming online. And you know, at the Action Network,
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: states becoming legal are how we drive our business. It's
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: the most important stuff for us. Arizona became legal in
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  Speaker 1: the fall. It was a massive, massive month for us.
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  Speaker 1: In September, we anxiously await the opportunity for states to
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  Speaker 1: go live, and when they do, those are our super Bowls, right,
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  Speaker 1: we need to be perfect on those days. I've had
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: more people at our company tell me how much fun
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: they had this weekend. How was the most fun they've
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  Speaker 1: ever had at Action? Because all the wheels were turning,
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: and social was activating, and our product team was activating,
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: and our operations team was activating, and the marketing team
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: was activating and trying to drive sort of real revenue
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: against sports betting being legal. But what was most interesting
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: was you forget how many people live in New York
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: that work at the company, and like they're all of
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  Speaker 1: a sudden new betters, and it's just crazy for them,
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  Speaker 1: crazy when you were sitting on your couch betting for
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  Speaker 1: the first time legally. I try to always tell that
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  Speaker 1: to the old timers in Vegas because they really weren't
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  Speaker 1: getting it. Like when I moved home, they just didn't
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  Speaker 1: really understand it. And my whole was this exact reason,
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: which just there's gonna be so many more books in
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  Speaker 1: New Jersey. You've got a better home. The Beto home
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  Speaker 1: thing has really worked out for me just because these
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  Speaker 1: these sports books, these apps, they're quick if you if
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  Speaker 1: you're sharp better, if you're betting both sides, they're gonna
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  Speaker 1: shut you down pretty quick. But for the most parts
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  Speaker 1: they're letting all the action get through. So it's been
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  Speaker 1: really cool and just seeing every state pop up with it,
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  Speaker 1: and I can't want to see for Darren Rabel's tweet,
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  Speaker 1: who's going to be the revenue king this upcoming month,
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  Speaker 1: because that's my favorite thing. New Jersey. We overtook Vegas.
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  Speaker 1: That was like a really cool thing. It looks like
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  Speaker 1: it was mainly because New Yorkers were coming to uh,
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  Speaker 1: New Jersey, so we'll see. But that heat chart was crazy.
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  Speaker 1: It was two times the amount or three times right,
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  Speaker 1: the amount of bets were being placed in New York
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  Speaker 1: that would being placed in New Jersey. Yeah, there was.
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  Speaker 1: It was insane. We had a story in the Action
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  Speaker 1: Network website, you can check it out where we have
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  Speaker 1: this a company called geo Comply, which a lot of
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  Speaker 1: the operators used to make sure that you are in
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  Speaker 1: the state that you say you're in when you're trying
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  Speaker 1: to place your bets because it is, you know, not
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  Speaker 1: legal in every state, and so you could get the
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  Speaker 1: data that shows where the bets were coming from. And
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: it's fucking insanity in sanity, I mean, we'll get into
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  Speaker 1: last weekend the Jaguars Man. You're here to hear first
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: people they mocked us chat a lot of d MS
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  Speaker 1: talking ship to us about our Jaguars love. We gave
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  Speaker 1: you the info they hadn't won in Jacksonville. Since that's
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  Speaker 1: all you need to hear. I think of all the
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  Speaker 1: terrible teams, the Jaguars have had and how the colt said,
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  Speaker 1: Andrew luck, they had rivers, then then they had wins
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  Speaker 1: and all these guys have just lost to the Jaguars team.
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  Speaker 1: It doesn't make sense. That was bizarre. I mean we again,
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  Speaker 1: it's not like I predicted that outright win, but we
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  Speaker 1: looked at and we just said that line was inflated,
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  Speaker 1: and we said you were getting a lot of free
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  Speaker 1: points on that Jaguars. So as you asked me for
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: my one birthday wish and I told you, Jaguars win.
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  Speaker 1: That's that's what I wanted. I just wanted the chaos.
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  Speaker 1: And man, that was never a doubt in that game.
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  Speaker 1: I think it was seven three. They were still plus
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  Speaker 1: four hundred plus five hundred Jaguars, and I told my buddy,
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  Speaker 1: I was like, dude, betas live like this is gonna happen.
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  Speaker 1: Carson Welts has turned into a snow and man, he's
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  Speaker 1: melting right now. That that number. What a train wreck
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  Speaker 1: from that cold steam. The end of the year. There's
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  Speaker 1: so much to talk about. This is why people have
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  Speaker 1: to watch the show. Convinced me that we do on
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  Speaker 1: at Action Network HQ on Sunday mornings at eleven am.
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  Speaker 1: Because Simon and I we talked about the Jaguars. We
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  Speaker 1: talked about them as being a live dog in this game,
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  Speaker 1: but we weren't convinced like we were going to bet
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  Speaker 1: them come Sunday morning. Is when we really started to
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: get more confident, and we talked about it on the show.
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  Speaker 1: Convinced me that we were going to buy into the Jaguars.
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  Speaker 1: I bet the Jaguars Sunday morning and plus seven hundred
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  Speaker 1: in that game. Um, before the game kicked off, I
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  Speaker 1: bet him as as uh money line dogs. Uh. Sometimes
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: you don't get your courage until Sunday morning. So you
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  Speaker 1: know that's and by the way, you were hoping for chaos. Um,
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  Speaker 1: that's Sunday night game. Geez Louise. That was one of
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  Speaker 1: the biggest betting stories of the year. What could have
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  Speaker 1: happened in the books if there was a tie and
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  Speaker 1: the liabilities and that the fact that did almost come
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: down to that, the running joke about how all sports
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  Speaker 1: are fixed, A call had to be made to that side,
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  Speaker 1: Finn the sports books. I don't know what the exact
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  Speaker 1: number would have been, but every little Joe Schmo you
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  Speaker 1: saw it online. We're posting the twenty dollar fifty dollar
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  Speaker 1: parlay tickets they had that were win like twenty k.
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  Speaker 1: So it was like an investment of I don't know,
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  Speaker 1: say Ballpark a hundred k just to win like twenty
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  Speaker 1: million or something crazy like that across all these different
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  Speaker 1: sports books. That was, and it was sticking to I
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: was gonna make a joke on Twitter, how many kicks
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  Speaker 1: we've lost money on that one miss kick? When it
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  Speaker 1: made up for all of that because I had, you know,
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  Speaker 1: it was it was not that much. I think my
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  Speaker 1: biggest one was eighty dollars or maybe a hundred dollars
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  Speaker 1: on the money line parlay. Because again I believe in
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  Speaker 1: the Jags, but not really the tie part. I just
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: thought a stupid idea, they're gonna kneel down, Like again,
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  Speaker 1: this is the highest level competition. I didn't see them
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  Speaker 1: kneeling out that game, like Goodell wasn't gonna let that happen.
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  Speaker 1: But that was gonna happen. Like the kick, the field
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  Speaker 1: goal would have been a fifty six yard or if
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  Speaker 1: they had got stuffed on that third down play, um
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  Speaker 1: the Raiders again they picked up ten yards on that carry.
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  Speaker 1: That changed the whole mentality. But a fifty six yard
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  Speaker 1: or you can just kneel it out. You're both in
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  Speaker 1: the playoffs. The risk wouldn't been worth it to try
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  Speaker 1: to kick that because it could get backed, you could lose.
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  Speaker 1: The people coming out saying that they were never gonna
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  Speaker 1: just kneel on it, I really do think they were.
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: But that's a big deal, that ten yard carry. That
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  Speaker 1: changed everything. So that's why I was just so upset
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: about that time out because that would have been legendary,
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  Speaker 1: Like we would be talking about this to our grandkids,
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  Speaker 1: do you remember that time because they would have changed
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: the rules. They percent would have changed the rules NFL
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: that the games can end of the tie after that.
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  Speaker 1: So it just felt like it was historical moment that
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  Speaker 1: was taken away from us just because a coach he
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: thinks he's the smartest guy in the room and they
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: deserve not to make the playoffs the Chargers just the
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: way he coached all year. I'm all about risk, but
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: there's just too much risk with his coaching stuff. I
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: think that's going to change them a lot for the better.
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: For next season for the Chargers, Yeah, he's not playing
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: in Division three football. Um. The the other thing that
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: we quickly have to touch on obviously, I'm a huge
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: Bears fan. We've talked a lot about the Bears. The
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: Bears fired Matt Nage and Ryan Pace their GM on Monday,
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: right before I came on the text chair, and I
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: was having with my buddies, was who do we want?
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: Is it Brian Flores, Is it Doug Peterson? Is it
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: Byron Leftwich? Um? I air on the side of Peterson
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: or left which because I want someone who's offensively creative,
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: who can coach up a what I believe to be
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: a transcendent talent. But then we all concluded that because
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: it's the Bears, we could have the options of Brian Flores,
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: Byron Leftwich, Eric b Enemy, Doug Peterson or the field.
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: The field being anyone who is not remotely qualified to
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: coach the Bears, to coach a transcendent quarterback and would
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: not even be considered to be a head coach for
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: any other team. And I might take the field. Well.
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: I love Doug as ne a fan. I think how
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: he really did him wrong, So I would love for
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: Doug get a new opportunity with a young quarterback and field.
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: That's just that's a great combo. He is a great
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: offensive mind. I look at your team though, and I
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: think Flores. If if you as to get Brian Flores
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: and you can get the right oh see, that would
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: just be such a great combo. When you think of
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: the Bears, you think of Bears defenses. That's that's kind
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: of like the Bears identity. You don't. You don't have
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: good quarterbacks chat you know it as a Bears fan,
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: you just don't. You guys have never drafted one. I
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: would just love for you guys to get him. So
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: to me, it's either him or Doug that has to
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: be the move for the Bears. At this point. Well,
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: we're gonna find out. We're gonna get it, get to
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: it all. It's gonna be a long off season. We're
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: gonna talk about every single bit of it. Today is Tuesday.
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: We got six playoff games this weekend. We're gonna go
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: through the full slate. We'll probably get into a foxhole.
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: We probably won't do big balls until Thursday, and we're
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: gonna talk about Simon says, we got some playoff football
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: to talk about. That's for sure. We made it, buddy.
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: I just feel like like we're heading into a month
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: where it's a little bit more relaxed, you know what
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: I mean. And I think Stucky had a great tweet.
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: He said, it's gonna be funny how there's gonna be
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: no more COVID news in the NFL come playoffs. That's
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: so true. There's no one, No one's getting put on
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: any list. There's the letting the guy's plays, No, no,
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: it's it's over. Saturday afternoon on NBC Las Vegas Raiders
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: at Cincinnati Bengals. My very first instinct with the Bengals
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: is a five and a half point favorite. You fucking
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: smashed the Bengals. This Raiders team has run out of magic.
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: They got every break they needed to get. They got
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: in the right spot against the Colts two weeks ago.
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: They got in the right spot with some lucky breaks
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: against a better team this past weekend. They should not
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: be five and a half point underdogs. It should be
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: bigger against a Joe Burrow magic led team. Fire away
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: on the Bengals again. People are gonna see we we
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: change up a lot here in the playoffs. During the season.
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: I'm always heavy towards dogs. People know that us in
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: the show I Love Dogs. Playoff times actually end up
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: more a lot more more more often than not, I'm
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: on favorites. It's just it's a home team. I love
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: home team, especially in the playoffs. Especially depends on what
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: kind of weather we're gonna get in these matchups. The
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: first thing I thought about when I saw this matchup was, Okay,
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: Vegas just one like you. Just had a crazy emotional
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: game Sunday night. Their defense played I believe eighties seven
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: snaps in that game. Now they're playing the first game
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: comes Saturday, so they're already on a shortened week. It's
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: the middle of January, right, they've just played a full season.
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: They just got really a raw deal here. Honestly, Vegas
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: really did there there. The NFL made them the primetime game.
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: Now they're giving them the first game on Saturday, making
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: them travel. That's brutal. That's that. It is truly brutal
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: for this team. So if this number was seven, yeah,
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: I started I started looking towards this Raiders team. The
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: pros are bending down. I love they're taking it down.
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: I think six is a key number. In fact, we're
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: gonna six is a great number. Vegas has not played
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: well outdoors. That's they like the games they've won like
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: that Colts game that was an indoors their game last
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: week that was indoors. It's when it's controlled environment. We've
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: seen Derek Carr do well outdoors. Usually he messes up.
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: I know they had that really early in the year
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: win against Pittsburgh outdoors. That's really it. Like they're on
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: their other games outdoors early in the year doesn't count
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: right exactly, like we've seen it time and time again too.
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: With Joe Burrow, He's had the arm strength to play
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: in this kind of weather, and they have a better
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: running game with mixing. So you've given me a team
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: that's off rest in the Bengals Joe Burrow. The more
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: I read about his injury, I remember you got a
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: little banged up in that final snap of that game.
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: Apparently he's good, like he was fine. They had him
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: do a little precaution things. He had a boot on
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: just to be safe, but nothing really serious that we
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: know about. Sitting here on Tuesday, I love this number
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: like I I honestly want to make this our foxhold bet,
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: just because it's rare, especially for me to be taking
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: a favorite in this position. Before we get to that,
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: what do you power rate this game? Apt before we
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: decide on the Foxhil, what do you ePower rate to set?
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: I made it seven. I really thought this is a
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: good number. At seven it opened, I believe it's six
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: and a half. I thought it would be bet up
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: to seven. Give me a little pause, because that's pro
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: money coming in bending that down to five and a half.
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: But I think that's honestly just the Vegas bump. These
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: locals they took all their winnings off that Vegas game.
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: They just rolled it right back onto this Vegas team,
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: so they moved that number back down. Maybe it ends
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: back up towards seven later in the week. That's why
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: I would just take this value right now. You're getting
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: five and a half. It's under a key number of six.
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: That to me, says not Foxhil, That says Simon says.
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: We could do Simon sets where I just had one
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: game circle for Simon says, because all right, well then
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: we can get to that. I don't feel like this
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: is the Foxhole game because like a lot of people
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: will be betting this with us. Yeah, I think so.
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: I don't think we're gonna be alone on this. I'm
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: not gonna have to convince people to take the better
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: team with the better quarterback at home is less than
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: a touchdown favorite. Alright, next game could be our foxhel
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: because because that's also what I was thinking, is that
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: the next game New England pay striots at Buffalo Bills
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: Patriots as four point underdogs, that's going to be a foxhole.
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: It has to be. And I bet you as soon
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: as you saw this number, you knew we would be
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: on the Patriots. Let's clide down into the foxhole. We
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: don't have a choice. We love the Bills here and
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: we we are are die hard fan man that I know.
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: Right now he's just screaming at the sky being like,
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: you know what Bills buy thirty? But this is classic Belichick.
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: The public will be on the Bills. The Bills have
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: played well here down the stretch, their defense has played
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: really well. We have to take Bill in this moment.
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: This is why you backed Belichick. I know it's a
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: rookie quarterback on the road. That's why we failed them
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: last week against the Dolphins. This week, he's not gonna
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: have a team be a sloppy because they work last week.
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: That's what that was perfect for him as Belichick as
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: a coach, to have a loot lost like that where
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: his team played slow, sloppy. They really blew that game
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: against the Dolphins. They should have won that ten times over,
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: but they kept having stupid penalties, stupid turnovers. Just like
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: great get right spot for this Patriots team. I think
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: this is a good number though, Like honestly I made
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: this number. Three four is a fair fair number. They
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: know the politic will be coming on the bills. The
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: fact that hasn't moved, I really think that's good time. Well,
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: that it's moved down to three and a half at
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: one book, Okay, fan duels at four. The juice has
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: gone down, so it's trending towards three and a half.
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: But that's telling me that the wise guys are coming
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: in on the bills because right now I mean on
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: the on the Patriots, because right now the tickets are
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: all on the bills. Yeah. Now it's a pro game.
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: Pros are gonna back Belichick in this position. Again. We
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: love Sean McDermott. We think this bill seems great. We're
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: not saying they're gonna lose. I just can't see them
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: covering that big one numbers. So the fact that it's
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: dropped down to three and a half, that's more normal.
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: Like again, I made this number three. It's the third
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: time these guys have played that game. There wasn't much
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: a take away from the first time they played again
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: the Patriots rang at what thirty forty times. Just can't
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: see it being the same thing. I don't. I just
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: don't think Belichick's gonna be doing that. He's gonna have
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: to have Mac throw the ball. A lot of the
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: matches are gonna favor this Bill's team. But the biggest
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: thing that the achilles s hell all year has been
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: they can't run the ball to eat the clock up.
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: They don't have that style of offense where they can
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: really put teams away. So to me, three and a
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: half for that's a great number to having a playoff
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: game where not that I think we're gonna be cheering
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: for a back door the whole time, but it's always
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: gonna be open. This is just gonna be a close
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: divisional match up here in the playoffs every time. I'm
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: gonna take this kind of dog. I think. Now we
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: go to Western New York, where are in trepperd Western
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: New York Bureau Chief Matt Mitchell may have something to
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: say about this game. A lot of people holding their stomachs,
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: feel like if they're gonna throw up all week. A
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: lot of people shoveling already shoveled driveways just to not
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: be in their house around their wives and children. A
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: lot of people folding the same shirt over and over
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: again in their bedroom. It's going to be an awful
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: week leading up to this game. I am so grateful
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: that the game is after both of my small children
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: will be asleep. I had to drive all the way
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: across town here in Milwaukee to get a case of
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: Lebat Blue. That's That'should gave me through the first quarter.
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: I can't hate you for wanting to take the points.
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: It's a lot of points, a lot of points in
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: the playoff game. Bills would much rather play this game
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: in the Dome, but I do think the Bills win.
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: I don't feel newly as anxious about this as I
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: as I thought I would have in years past. But
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: a very very titilating week for Bills fans everywhere, and
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: I'm I'm hopeful that all of you, despite begging me
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: not to, are ready to hear the Bills shout song
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: again once the Bills fulfilled their promise of winning a
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: playoff game so that I can play that song again
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: here on these airwaves. I can't imagine. I can't because
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: I know how great it is having your team playing
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: prime time on a Saturday night. Actually the kids go
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: to sleep. It is the greatest thing in the world.
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: It really is. The Bills didn't play a ploff game
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: from the time I was like fourteen to the time
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: I already had a child. It's like seven eighteen years later.
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: The fact that I playing a plaff game at all
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: is great, but that kind of pleasure overload of the
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: guy delivers the wings. I pull a couple of bats
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: out of the snow bank. The game is about to
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: kick off. We're not down yet. I'm in a great mood.
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: It's gonna be It's gonna be just heavenly now. One
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: of my good friends, he lives up in like, you know,
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: the Finger Lakes area of New York. He's died her
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: Bills fan. He claims the happiest Bills moment of the
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: last fifteen years was that Andy Dalton win over the Ravens.
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: Is that true, Matt Mitchell, There's no There's not even
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: a second thing. I Boyd and Dalton drink for free
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: in Buffalo forever. To be clear, I say Matt Mitchell
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: is our Western New York Bureau chief only because he
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: grew up in Rochester and is a massive Bills fan.
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: He mentioned Milwaukee. He clearly lives in Milwaukee today. But
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: he's also he's big enough in spirit that he could
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: cover everything in the Great Lakes region, the Midwest all
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: the way to New York. That's how big his spirit
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: and how deep he can go. That's why any Bill
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: fens listening. I was raised in Rochester. My mother is
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: a woman of the Southern Tier. My father's a man
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: of Balbany. I'm an upstate scumbag all the way down
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: into my boats. We love the New York Staters. We
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: expect a lot out of Western New York this weekend
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: when New York legalized in UH. The Citizen read did
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: not disappoint all right. Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: The Eagles eight and a half point Dogs, first instant, Birds,
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: first instinct. The Birds are a great running team, but
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: this Bucks defense can stop the run. Are gonna get
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: shot down? Oly ship, How can you say it to
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: my face? Chat people. I can separate being a fan
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: from you know, doing my work, my data research. Here
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: on the Eagles. First glance, I thought it was a
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: good number for Tampa. It was it was seven. That
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: was a fair and this and this kind of matchup,
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: it's something and a half now, Chad, he still still yeah, Well,
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: to be honest, To be honest, I didn't do my
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: homework and I didn't realize it opened at seven. So
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: if I had known that, I'd probably say it's a
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: past for me. And it ran all up to ten
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: actually at some books. So professionals came in hard on it.
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: Bet it down and a half fair number to me.
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: I look at the match up here. They actually have
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: not been as good as you think they were against
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: the run late here in this season. They've had games
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: where they've been able to been run on again to
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: a Hubard last week. You must put up a hundred
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: on that running for Carolina, which is a corpse of
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: a team. As we all know, a lot of problems
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: for this Tampa to you, okay, they they they're down
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: to just Mike Evans and again he's incredible. Every time
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: they needed a third down completed last week he had
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: me screaming his name because every time he was getting open,
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: getting that third down for them, and they still have Gronk,
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: two great weapons. I don't know. It's a laugh for
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: me be down there, down again, Leonard four not could
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: be bad. What I'm reading right now is he's day
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: two day, they're down. God, when they're down a B
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: it's tom Brady. He's the goat. He can overcome all that.
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: But I look at the Magic and I said, are
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: they good enough to really have eight and a half points?
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: It feels like again the middle of the season, mean,
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: you were kind of going against Tampa because of all
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: the injuries that pought up for them, and it worked
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: out for us. They were they were winning games, they
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: just weren't covering. I think we have another scenario that
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: they here. This is a everyone's got them in their teaser,
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: Tampa Bay. I feel like they are gonna win there.
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: It's Tom Brady in the playoffs playing against the guy
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: making his first start in the playoffs and hurts a
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: coach making his first appearance in the playoffs. Incerianni, It's
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: already rare that a situation like this, these guys win
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: against Tom Brady. I bet you it's never happened before. Again,
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: I have nothing to back that up. I can't think
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: of anything out top of my head of a rookie
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: head coach and a rookie running back going to where
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: Tom Brady was playing at home and beating him. Um,
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: I just can't see it. So this just feels like
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: a pros number. They'll take the the half just because
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: it's such a big spread. I know it's not the
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: biggest one. Obviously, we'll get to the Pittsburgh game that's
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: the biggest spread of the weekend. But this is big.
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: This is a big number for a team where the
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: Eagles have always come back this season. Again, when they
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: played Tampa this year at home, what were they down?
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: I don't remember. It was big though, it was like
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: twenty one to three at half, something crazy like that.
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: They came all the way back. They got the two
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: point conversion to cover the six that game against Tampa
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: at home. You know they weren't that good back then.
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: The egos have really gotten confidence. I've gotten better here
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: as this season gone along. The only fear is that
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: we don't know how good they are. They have yet
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: to beat a team over five or no that's not true.
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: They beat the Saints who finished nine and eight. That's
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: why are only like the Eagles only win against a
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: team above five. Like that's not good obviously, but we're
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: again we're not looking for them to win. We just
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: want them to cover. So the fact that's it's moved
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: from seven eight and a half, maybe we'll get up
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: to nine. I love this number. You could maybe put
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: a little bit on. I just wait though, all the teasers,
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: all the money line parladies that are coming on Tampa.
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: I could see this name, this number keep coming up
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: unless pros are gonna bet it down again. But I
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: would pick the risk. It's I can't see again in
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: blow eight. This that's a key number, especially with teasers.
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: People doing six point teasers. They're gonna take it down
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: to two. That's a key number. So to me, eight
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: and a half. You can take the value, but I
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: would just wait. All right, well then I'll wait see
• 24:15
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• 26:38
  Speaker 1: Niners at Dallas Cowboys. This game is on Sunday at
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: four thirty. Generally like it opened, it three and a half.
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: It got that down to three. It's pretty much stayed there.
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: It's a pros Joe's game. Professionals are going to be
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: on the Niners. The public is going to be on
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: the Cowboys. This is my Simon says game right. When
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: I saw this number, I loved that three and a half.
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: Still live it at three. I make this game minus
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: one of the Cowboys. You could, you could convince me
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: make it a pick. I just want to go that far.
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: Just because of Jimmy g with his injury. I don't
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: know how serious it is. Again, he led that him
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: down the field last last week against the four against
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: the Rams, that was more about McVeigh. Okay, they were up.
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: McVeigh did one of the most One of the things
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: that really pisses him off the football nowadays is for
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: some reason, they think the three time outs of their
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: team has the most important thing in the world. They're like, okay,
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: let's run a three straight times. They burned three time outs,
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: and we'll punt it when they have two minutes left
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: to go down the field. The time I was just
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: don't matter. I'll never get it. It's like, you have
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: the best receiver in football on your team, Cooper Cup.
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: All you need is a first down and you can
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: pretty much end the game. If you're this Rams team
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: and they gave it to this four and Iris team.
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: I kind of love the mox in the module of
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: this FOURT and Iris team, Like Jamie coming back in
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: that second half. That's what you want. That's the definition
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: of a playoff football mentality team. That was a playoff
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: game for them. They needed to win that to get in.
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: He showed up like any team could have folded in.
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: They didn't. This Cowboys team they only beat up on
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: bad teams. We've seen the time and time again this year.
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: They beat up on bad teams and they lose two
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: good teams. You're giving me three points in a matchup
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: that should be a pick or minus one for Dallas.
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: I love the value on this number. I see this
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: coming down to the same thing we saw um last
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: week of the four nineers. They're gonna if they don't
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: have a lead and the Cowboys are coming back. Yeah,
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: the Cowboys could do it. That could come back. That's
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: a bad secondary. It's just gonna be close to me
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: the whole game. Like the four nine Ers. Everyone's healthy,
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: that Dabo is healthy. Um Kiddle is healthy, like the
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: running backs are real healthy, their offensive lines healthy, their
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: d lines all healthy. We saw last week their D
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: line just going after Um Stafford. I just love all
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: the things that's pointing to this four yards team. So
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: I'm not happy that's not three and a half. I
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: would have preferred at three and a half. I still
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: love the value getting at three though. That's again, that's
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: still a great number to take in this matchup. So
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: that's to me, I'm making my Simon says, because I
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: could see it keep dropping. The pros are gonna keep
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: betting this down to me, so I was getting down
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: to two two and a half by kicked golf despite
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: all the public money that will be coming out on
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: the Cowboys. You mentioned Cooper Cup. One of the themes
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: last week that we talked a lot about was betting
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: the player props against their incentives UM and their ability
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: to potentially break a record. So there was a lot
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: made this week about Tom Brady yelling on the sideline,
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: you can't pull me out. I'm going back in because
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: he went to get Gronk the yardage and receptions he
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: needed for that bonus money, right, and there was DK
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: Metcalfe needed to get a certain amount of yardage to
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: get some bonuses. Uh. Darnell Mooney needed a certain amount
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: of yardage. Cooper Cup needed yardage. Um Uh. Mark Andrews
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: needed yardage to set a franchise record for tight ends. Uh. So.
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: Raybon Chris Raybon, who is an analyst. He hosts the
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: Action Network podcast was Stucky that comes out on Thursday's
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: Breaking Down the Games. He's brilliant at player props. He's
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: on the Convinced Me Show on Sunday mornings eleven am
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: at Action Network h Q where we do a prop segment.
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: I just basically tailed whatever he did in the player props.
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: Him and Sean Kroner also on the show. I had
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: Cooper Cup and I like I had Mooney, I had
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: metcalf I had Mark Andrews, all of them cash Cooper Cup.
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: The line was a hundred and seventeen and a half.
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: They were on the four yard line. He caught that
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: pass to put him up by seven with about two
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: minutes left. That pushed him to a hundred and eighteen yards.
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: That made the Rams seven point. Gave Rams a seven
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: point lead. I'm like, I just want two massive bets
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: on one play and then they throw it away. Let's
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: say I was like the opposite spectrum where I lost
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: two massive on that final play. I had the under
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: and I had the rams minus four, minus four and
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: a half whatever it was minus three and a half,
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: and you know they're up seven. The under is good.
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: It's it's it's covering by seven. Bam, Jimmy g final touchdown. Yeah,
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: that's again, that's Those are the ones that really sting.
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: But it was such a profitable day. It's like, who
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: fucking cares? Yeah, that is the highest class big money
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: comment ever. It's just fucking money. You know what, when
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: I get some, I'll just throw it on the pile
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: with the rest of it. If I leave some who
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: gives a fuck. It's just money. I got more coming
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: in somewhere. No team. It costs me more money this
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: year than the Charters. Like that game with the Chiefs
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: cost me a ton of money than him not calling
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: that time out and them not getting that tie again.
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: I'm never gonna get over because it was just the best.
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: It was like a hundred twenty investment to win a couple,
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: you know, tens of thousands of dollars and it didn't
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: come through. I'm better, I'm bitter about it. I've mentioned before.
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: You can continue to follow all the pics that we make.
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: We should have done this in September. You can follow
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: the picks that Simon and I agree on and then
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: we talked about in the podcast. In the phaves five
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: handle in the Action Network app you download for free,
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: follow the Phase five. This past week we put in
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: our picks. It was five picks. We went three and two.
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: We won with Miami, the Texans, and the Raiders, and
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: we lost the Falcons and the Rams. But I forgot
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: we had the Raiders and it was such a profitable day.
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: It was such a huge day and such a good
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: day because of the Jacksonville thing. Because the player props.
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: Before the Chargers game, I'm like, you know what, I'm
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: gonna throw a little money on the Chargers. I had
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: forgotten we liked the Raiders and uh the public, my friend, well,
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: I know, so I bet the Chargers and then when
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: they were down to nothing, I bet in plus two
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: and a half. I made so many horrible decisions. I
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: was like, I'm like, I was walking up the stairs
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: to my bedroom and I'm like, I'm such a fucking square.
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: I'm chasing. I'm doing Sunday night chasing right now. It's
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: the best though, it really is. It was fun. It
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: gave me a reason to almost stay up for the
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: whole game. I'm not saying I did. I'm just saying
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: most all right. Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs, Pittsburgh
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: on the road, twelve and a half point Dogs, it's
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: a Pros Joe's game right now. The money coming on
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: the Steelers. Wow, I'm shocked by that. I'm I'm on
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: the Chiefs. I can't believe it, but i am. I've
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: made this line fourteen. I'm shocked it's come down to
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: twelve and a half. Um, that's fair, you know whatnot
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: I'm thinking about it, like what the Chiefs they barely
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: got by against Denver. That's crazy that that that the
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: Pros are coming in on the Pittsburgh I get it,
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: like they're looking at their defense, but were like, what
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: the who the hell are? They played like they just
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: beat who the Browns that are nothing left? And then
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: they beat the backup of the Ravens. What the fuck?
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: That's what. I can't believe that. So there's six games
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: I feel like this is making you think hard about
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: whether or not this could be one of the five
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: that we choose. Yeah, I mean I've already bet the
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: Chiefs though, and like that sucks. I got a ship
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: number because I thought I wasn't get bet up. I'm
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: just shocked they're coming in on Like what is what
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: is Pittsburgh done to deserve the professional money. I'm like
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: trying to think of my head what their angles could be,
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: and like maybe they're just thinking themselves, like maybe the
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: Chiefs still aren't right and who are they to be
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: getting this many points? But it's like it's the Chiefs
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: at home in Arrowhead against the noodle arm Roethlisburg. Like
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: this team, they're not good Pittsburgh. They've only beat up
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: on the NFC then a f C North like that
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: are bad teams again. They played the Bengals, the Bengals
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: blew them out both times. Like that's that's really interesting
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: they're coming in. I'm I'm on the chief But you're right,
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: maybe this won't be one of my bigger bets because
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: I'd have to get more info in and like maybe
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: talk some of the professionals and hear what they're thinking
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: about this but first glance, I really like the Chiefs.
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: I thought you were getting a good number as long
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: as the under fourteen. That's a good number to me.
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: With this Chief's team, them at home, with that defense,
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: that offense, like come January, this is this is when
• 34:53
  Speaker 1: they shine. The Chiefs. So a Pittsburgh team that's just
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: lucky to be in. I can't see them doing what
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: they've done to these other teams, like they've been playing
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: hurt teams and backups, the saying a backup. This isn't
• 35:04
  Speaker 1: a hurt team. The Chiefs are healthy. They got they
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: got hell, they got Kelsey, they got my homes. That
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: offense is gonna still be humming. I would take the
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: Chiefs here like there that game last week that was
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: a ship game by them, that was really a letdown spot.
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: No letdown spot here that they know they're not gonna
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: just walk over Pittsburgh like this is the playoffs. They're
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: not gonna just sleepwalk through this game like that they
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: with Denver. So maybe we're getting good value just because
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: that game was so close with Denver. So I'll take
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: that that. I'll take the Chiefs. Still, you went around
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: the world on that answer. You were all in on
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: the Chiefs. Then you heard me give you the stats,
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: then you tried to understand why it was happening, and
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: then you came back around You're like, fuck everybody, I
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: like the Chiefs. Yeah, I'm like because I'm I can't
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: I again, I'm not to look through the numbers and
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: talk to their pros. But I can't think of a
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: reason why you would take this number, Like they could
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: have just waited and maybe got the fourteen. Like the
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: public was gonna bet this number with the Chiefs. That's
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: what I'm trying to wrap my head around. I don't
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: get the pro money's coming in so early. Like the
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: professionals are smarter than that. They know they could get
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: a better number. They didn't want it. They thought they
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: were already getting a good number. So yeah, this is
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: definitely gonna be a sharp call by by Thursday. Oh
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: my god, it's gonna be a total sharp call by
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: the way. So that's sharp Call is a segment we
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: do on Thursdays for those who don't know where we
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: react to the calls that Simon got from his professional
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: betting colleagues about what we said on Tuesday. Also reminder,
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: because it's the playoffs. We're doing Convince me me, Simon,
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: Sean Croner, Chris Raybon. We are doing it on Saturday.
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: We are doing it on Sunday, two days, two days,
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: Saturday Sunday. Next two weekends we've got Saturday Sunday shows.
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: Divisional Weekend, which is, by the way, probably the best
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: weekend of football in any season. Divisional Weekend is the best.
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: Last game, we got to talk about Arizona Cardinals at
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: Los Angeles Rams. This number has come down. It's come
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: down from an opener of four and a half. In
• 36:57
  Speaker 1: some places, it's a three and a half. A lot
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: of money, a lot of money coming in on the
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: Arizona Cardinals. God, I hate this one. So yeah, we
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: have a guy in Stafford that he's just been bad
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: these last couple of weeks. Like that turnover he had
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: against the four Innards, I kind of flipped that whole game.
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: They're up seventeen three throws that pick or maybe a
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: seventeen nothing through that pick and they went down the field,
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: got the field go before half. Just kind of change
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: the whole momentum of that game. That's interesting. So yeah,
• 37:25
  Speaker 1: the professionals, no, that makes sense. Taking the dog in
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: the spot taking the plus four. They're taking Cliff Kingsbury.
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: Cliff Kingsbury, when is the last time the Cardinals won
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: a game impressively. I know they beat the Cowboys, but
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: that wasn't a dominant performance of a team that started
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: off so strong. Cliff Kingsbury went very Cliff Kingsbury in
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: November and December. He just did Cliff Kingsbury. The team
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: was not as good. I know there were a lot
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: of injuries, but he made some acky, wacky coaching decisions
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: in weird games. They lost two really bad teams. You've
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: got a little bit of a Sophie's choice here between
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: teams you don't want to bet on. No, and in
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: this situation, like I think this is a good number.
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: I made this number. I believe five. It was funny
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: too where this one was probably my least bet one.
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: But who is Kingsbury to getting all this love that
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: that that that's crazy from bet down. But I can't
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: just feel confident about this this Rams team. I just
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: with Stafford. He started out so well this year, and
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: I know, like I got a ton of heat from
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: a bunch of other professionals. I just was on the
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: Seahawks coming to the year to win this division. Holy
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: sh it, was that a bad choice. All my brother
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: and all my other pros I talked to, they love
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: their Rams. We talked to the middle of the summer.
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: They're all over the Rams for that division. They're over
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: the Rams super Bowl futures. Now we're sitting here January.
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: You probably could have got better You probably get better
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: value now in the Rams, and you did bet in
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: during the summer. Like not, nothing's really changed with them
• 38:56
  Speaker 1: this whole season, Like I feel like people are still
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: unsure about them. So I'll take the Rams because I'll
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: let Chad blow me into it where it's like I
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: don't want to be betting on Cliff, I don't trust Arizona.
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: I think you're getting a good number on the Rams.
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: I'll take it. But yeah, you're right. I don't know.
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: This will be one of my five just because we'll
• 39:13
  Speaker 1: probably there are some totals in there, just because be
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: able to let a lot less to pick from here.
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: I'll try to have some totals for people by Thursday,
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: once we know like different games, weathers and who's gonna
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: be playing these games. But just sitting here right now,
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: if if I two games. I was gonna throw out
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: and not be betting big on. I would say the
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: Rams or one I'll be betting on. I won't be
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: betting big and the Chiefs. I'm gonna wait and see.
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: I need to talk to the professionals just because so
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: I'm going against them. I need to hear from the pros,
• 39:37
  Speaker 1: to hear what they're doing, because like I looked at this,
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: I needed that. I thought, good number on Chiefs, good
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: number on the Rams. I'm wrong. The pros have come
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: in and bet the other way. So I'll be betting
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: the Ramsey and the Chiefs. I just need need more
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: infot where I put any more money on it? Right now?
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: The Los Angeles Rams ten to one to win the
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: Super Bowl, Arizona Cardinals somehow they're about twenty one, the
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: Bengals about seventeen to one, the Packers, three Chiefs, four,
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: five Bill seven fifty Bucks seven fifty Titans, A fifty Rams,
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: ten Cowboys, twelve, Bengals seventeen, then Colonels and I forgot
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: the Steelers who are bringing up the rear. I hit
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: that and like, if we're gonna best value, what's your
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: favorite value play for all those? Probably the Titans. Man
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: look at us thinking so much alike, it's gotta be Titans,
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: you know, Like the Titans are the number one seed,
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: but there odds are longer than the Chiefs and the
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: Buccaneers right now, So I probably put a nickel on
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: the Titans. You know, Titans bucks Super Bowl could be interesting.
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: In our friend Kitty rich Creek hitting me up. She
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: wanted to do a thing with the Action Group where
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: we're drafting teams for Super Bowls, like what teams we like?
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: I had the fourth pick, Titans saw right into my lap. Chat.
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: It's rare you get a one seed at the fourth
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: pick and these kind of playoff draft. So the disrespect
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: is really even even the experts don't like the Titans. Um,
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: I like the value. Like Chad just said, you're getting
• 41:07
  Speaker 1: a one seed. I can see them being a dog
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: to the Chiefs, but everyone else, I really don't make
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: him a dog. Even against the Buffalo Bills, I make them,
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: uh minus two point favorite. So just going through all
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: my list of numbers, that's the best value to me
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: right now is taking them. My second favorite value is
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: the forty nine ers. The forty niners have been there before.
• 41:25
  Speaker 1: Jimmy g They've been to a Super Bowl, they have
• 41:28
  Speaker 1: an identity, they know what they are. At this point
• 41:30
  Speaker 1: of the season, I think Dallas is soft. They can
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: be run on. So that's a good matchup for the
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: forty Niners. The only team that's really good against the
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: runner this whole playoffs or the Buccaneers Green Bay can
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: be ran on and we've seen it time and time again.
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: Rogers is oh and three in his last NFC Championship
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: games at home. He's own four overall in his last
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: NFC Championship games, but at home he just has not
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: done it. So I'm just looking at value and a
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: team that could shock the world. I like Chad's picked
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: with Tennessee, and from my pick, I'd go forty Niners
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: and plus what are they twenty one? And there's good
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: value right now in the FOURT nine if you think
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: like me, they're gonna upset the Cowboys here, there's good
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: value in taking that point. One. The preseason futures that
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: I still have alive, Raiders one, Niners fifteen to one,
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: Bills tend to one, Packers tend to one. I am
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: dead on the Washington football team, Carolina Panthers, and the Chargers.
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: You know, in my defense, we only bet the Washington
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: football team and the Carolina Panthers because we thought to
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: Shawn Watson might get traded there. Yeah, and honestly same
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: same with the Raiders. That was the reason I like
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: the Raiders because Watson news. So I'm right there with Chat.
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: I got the Raiders left, I got the Bills left,
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: and I have a Green Bay one when everyone thought
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: Rogers and retire. That's that's my biggest, my best one,
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: Like I need that to kind of get my money
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: back because I had some big misses on the Colts,
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: the Dolphins, and the Washington football team. Those are probably
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: my biggest bet ones in the preseason. None of them
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: made the playoffs, so that those are big swings that missus.
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: I want that for you and I wanted for me.
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: I'd be perfectly happy with the Packers UH playing each other,
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: and I'd be thrilled if play winning the Super Bowl.
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: I'd also be thrilled with the Packers or Niners playing
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: the Bills. I feel like I'm with everyone my favorite
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: just if I could pick one matchup for the Super
• 43:18
  Speaker 1: Bowl Patriots Bucks. I love the drama. I love everything
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: about obviously, the Bucks. It would be what what do
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: you think minus ten in the super Bowl against that Patriots,
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: something crazy like that. I would love everything about that,
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: but I just can't see it as much as I
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: love the torture Matt Mitchell. I am Ben the Patriots.
• 43:35
  Speaker 1: I just can't see them winning that game against the Bills.
• 43:38
  Speaker 1: It's the quarterback position. It always gets highlighted here in
• 43:41
  Speaker 1: the playoffs. Unless you have just an incredibly dominated team
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: or a veteran quarterback, it rarely works out. Like when
• 43:47
  Speaker 1: was the last time a young quarterback when the Super
• 43:49
  Speaker 1: Bowl was a big Ben and he had that or
• 43:51
  Speaker 1: Russell Wilson too, they both had good defenses. So it's
• 43:55
  Speaker 1: it's wishful thinking think the Patriots will make it. But
• 43:57
  Speaker 1: to me that would just be the the ultimate drama
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: Buccaneers Patriots, that that would be my favorite matchup. We
• 44:03
  Speaker 1: gotta do screw left when all hope is lost, all
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: that's left is relief. Let's play roulette. You can go first.
• 44:16
  Speaker 1: We both lost last week. Uh sorry people, it was
• 44:19
  Speaker 1: a good run. Yeah, well we were in Atlanta Falcons
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: podcast there for a long time and that that didn't help. Yeah,
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: I was still to regret instantly after saying it, I guess,
• 44:28
  Speaker 1: I guess I go four nineers. I just hyped up
• 44:30
  Speaker 1: the forty nine about twenty minutes. I gotta go with him.
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: I guess, so plus three you're taking the forty niners
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: plus three. I'm gonna take the Bengals minus five and
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: a half. And that will be that. All right. Thursday,
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: we will narrow it down. We'll talk about some totals
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: once we get more weather info, we'll get some sharp
• 44:49
  Speaker 1: calls in. We'll see if there's any money line parlay
• 44:52
  Speaker 1: that is worth doing, and we'll do our big balls
• 44:55
  Speaker 1: better the week. That's a full show. That's a lid,
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: as they say in the politics business. For Simon Hunter,
• 45:03
  Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman. This has been the Favorites podcast.
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: Download us an Apple podcast or Spotify, rate review, subscribe
• 45:11
  Speaker 1: five stars, say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift.
• 45:14
  Speaker 1: We WelCom it until Thursday. I love you,