Latest / The Hugh Hewitt Show: Highly Concentrated / Previewing the Islamabad talks

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Previewing the Islamabad talks · The Hugh Hewitt Show: Highly Concentrated

0:00
Speaker 1: Welcome to today's podcast sponsored by Hillsdale College, All Things
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Speaker 1: iTunes and Hillsdale. You at inside the Belwagh in the
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Speaker 1: Relief Factors Studio, Welcome, thank you for joining. I got
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Speaker 1: a lot of great guests coming up today. Eleana Johnson
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Speaker 1: of the Washington Freebeacon, the Commentary Podcast, Philip Alboni of
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Speaker 1: The Global Post, Josh Krasauer from The Juitionsider. I've got
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Speaker 1: Ben and Ben Talabu and Admiral Mark Montgomery from the
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Speaker 1: Foundation for the Defensive Democracies. And we're talking about one thing,
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Speaker 1: almost only one thing, the upcoming negotiations in Islamabad, Pakistan,
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Speaker 1: between Vice President jd Vance, Special ENVOYE. Steve Whitcock and
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Speaker 1: Jared Kushner and whomever the Iranian regime sends, whatever is
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Speaker 1: left of that regime. They're sending representatives to Islamabad. Meanwhile,
1:00
Speaker 1: Israel has rejected the idea of a ceasefire, in Lebanon.
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Speaker 1: Iran has issued so many different statements. We don't quite
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Speaker 1: know what to believe there. I do know that they
1:10
Speaker 1: are alleged Supreme Leader Hamini two point zero, the one
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Speaker 1: who's in a coma income and he might be dead.
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Speaker 1: He issued a written statement that was read over at
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Speaker 1: Iran TV. And we don't know who's running what in Iran.
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Speaker 1: Iran is not seeking more, but we will not forfeit
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Speaker 1: it's right and will consider all resistance fronts as a
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Speaker 1: unified entity. He also added they're the definite victor in
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Speaker 1: the war. All right, So there's propaganda and there's posturing,
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Speaker 1: and we've got lots of banging fits and shoes on
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Speaker 1: lecterns at the UN cruse chef style. But I remind
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Speaker 1: everyone at the beginning we have lots of presidents to
1:46
Speaker 1: study when high stakes international negotiations occur. And I got
1:50
Speaker 1: to break this down for the Steelers fan. I'm not
1:52
Speaker 1: going to tell you about the Congress of Berlin. I'm
1:55
Speaker 1: not going to tell you about the Congress of.
1:58
Speaker 2: Vienna.
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Speaker 1: I'm not going back to the history of diplomacy, but
2:01
Speaker 1: I'll use some obvious examples. We can go back to
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Speaker 1: nineteen thirty eight, Neville Chamberlain goes to Munich and basically
2:09
Speaker 1: gives Hitler everything he wants and comes back with an
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Speaker 1: umbrella and a piece of paper saying peace in our time,
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Speaker 1: and the world goes to war. World War Two begins
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Speaker 1: a year later. We've also got full and complete surrender
2:24
Speaker 1: by the bad guys. The good guys that would be Appomatics.
2:26
Speaker 1: In eighteen sixty five, when Lee offers the surrender of
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Speaker 1: the Army of Northern Virginia to Grant, Commander in chief
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Speaker 1: of all the Union armies. That's a total capitulation. And
2:38
Speaker 1: by the way, that can happen, and we might not
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Speaker 1: know it might be a secret deal in between. We've
2:44
Speaker 1: got Rekovic nineteen eighty six. This is the one I
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Speaker 1: know the best because I was in the Reagan administration.
2:49
Speaker 1: I wasn't there, but boy were we transfixed. President Reagan
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Speaker 1: went off to negotiate with the charismatic new leader of
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Speaker 1: the Soviet Union, and we'd run through Leonid Breshna. Then
3:01
Speaker 1: we had the head of the KGB and he died.
3:05
Speaker 1: Then we had Tchernanco and he died. And finally the
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Speaker 1: pall up hero says, let's go with someone who's under
3:11
Speaker 1: the age of eighty, and they picked Cher, they picked
3:15
Speaker 1: Gorbachev and Andre Gromico has been around as long as
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Speaker 1: as the other guys. But he's still alive. He's still breathing.
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Speaker 1: He says to his communist buddies.
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Speaker 2: Don't worry.
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Speaker 1: The man has a nice smile, but he has teeth
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Speaker 1: of iron. Turned out he didn't. He had a glass jaw.
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Speaker 1: He went to Iceland and wanted Reagan to do one thing,
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Speaker 1: give up the Strategic Defense initiative. He was willing to
3:37
Speaker 1: put everything on the table, give up Sdi. Reagan would
3:40
Speaker 1: not give up Sdi and Reagan walked out, and the
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Speaker 1: Soviet Union collapsed. Five years later. Three years after that,
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Speaker 1: the Berlin Wall came down. Sometimes the walk out and
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Speaker 1: no result is the best thing that can happen. What
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Speaker 1: we can't have is a Munich, right, There are lots
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Speaker 1: of things in between. By the way, there's the Yalta
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Speaker 1: Conference nineteen forty five, Fdr Churchill sit down with Stalin.
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Speaker 1: Basically Fdr gets his hat handed to him because he's
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Speaker 1: being advised by algera history as a Communist spy, and
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Speaker 1: it's really just the Soviet Union. United States left Britain
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Speaker 1: has spent their empires almost over and Churchill's kind of
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Speaker 1: cut out of Yalta. There's the Potsdam talks. Truman doesn't
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Speaker 1: really know what's going on. He knew on the job.
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Speaker 1: They don't really get that. There's the Tehran Conference during
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Speaker 1: I think it's nineteen forty three during World War Two,
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Speaker 1: when FDR and Churchill at his power get together with
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Speaker 1: Stalin in Tehran and they agree on a second front
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Speaker 1: in nineteen forty four. So there are all sorts of
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Speaker 1: meetings all over. We can go back to the River Neemen,
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Speaker 1: the Treaty of Tislit. Napoleon meets with Alexander, the one
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Speaker 1: in the middle of the River Nemen on especially built
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Speaker 1: wrap that would convey equality, and they enter into a
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Speaker 1: peace deal in eighteen oh seven and lasts until eighteen twelve.
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Speaker 1: Begins to fall apart a couple of years before that,
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Speaker 1: but Napoleon marches into Russia in eighteen twelve and is doomed.
5:00
Speaker 1: And there's a bunch of other things. So we have
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Speaker 1: no idea what's going to come out. But I do
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Speaker 1: want you to know one thing. Everyone who's out there
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Speaker 1: saying that this is a debacle or that the United
5:11
Speaker 1: States lost. They are more interested in hating Donald Trump
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Speaker 1: than loving the United States. They're more interested in their
5:19
Speaker 1: agenda of scoring points against Trump, which they don't do
5:23
Speaker 1: because they're just talking to each other, than in seeing
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Speaker 1: the United States conclude this war, this battle with a
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Speaker 1: significant win. Now we already have a significant win. Iran's
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Speaker 1: military has been reduced by seventy five to ninety percent.
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Speaker 1: They have lost their ability to project power except in
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Speaker 1: the Persian Gulf and the straight of arm moves, and
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Speaker 1: they have one weapon left.
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Speaker 2: Which is the straight Or moves.
5:45
Speaker 1: And securing the straight of Or moves might require a
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Speaker 1: long standing convoy operation that might take years. It might
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Speaker 1: require no fly zones, might require the resumption of the
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Speaker 1: war in full.
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Speaker 2: Lebanon.
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Speaker 1: Israel is going to enter into negotiations with the government
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Speaker 1: of Lebanon, but they're continuing the war with Hesbela, the
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Speaker 1: remnants of it. We don't know what's going to happen,
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Speaker 1: but the good guys are winning and they can't give
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Speaker 1: it away. The only thing that worries me is a
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Speaker 1: Munich style agreement. And I want Vice President of Vance
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Speaker 1: coming back declaring peace in our time.
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Speaker 2: He wouldn't do that. He's too smart.
6:17
Speaker 1: Neither would Witcoffin Jared Kushner, both of whom are very
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Speaker 1: experienced negotiators, and they know the Iranians. I think they're
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Speaker 1: sending two experienced negotiators with the Iranians who were very, very,
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Speaker 1: very responsible and relaying to the President that we're going
6:30
Speaker 1: nowhere with these people. So he started the war and
6:32
Speaker 1: they're setting a symbol of authority. President Trump's not going
6:35
Speaker 1: to go deal with these people. But they're sending the
6:37
Speaker 1: number two person in the United States, and though he
6:41
Speaker 1: has no constitutional authority, he is the only other elected
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Speaker 1: person in the United States beside Trump who's elected by
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Speaker 1: all the people, Shadie Vans.
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Speaker 2: So it's big.
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Speaker 1: Time, high stakes. But I've been reading take after take
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Speaker 1: after take, and they're all wrong. The Iranians blinked, is
6:57
Speaker 1: keep that in mind when they agreed to this. They
7:00
Speaker 1: blinked when they agreed to a ceasefire, because they said
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Speaker 1: from the beginning of the war there will be no ceasefire.
7:06
Speaker 1: There will be no ceasefire. There will be no ceasefire.
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Speaker 1: Now there's a seafire. It's not holding up really really well.
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Speaker 1: I think Saudi Arabia might be under some drone attacks
7:14
Speaker 1: as we speak, but.
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Speaker 2: I'm not sure. No one's really sure.
7:19
Speaker 1: But Donald Trump confirmed that he told Prime Minister Netnaho
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Speaker 1: in a phone call yesterday to scale back Israel's bombing
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Speaker 1: of Lebanon in order to preserve the fragile ceasefire in
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Speaker 1: Iran to at least get to Islamabad.
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Speaker 2: But they hasn't.
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Speaker 1: President Trump did not ask Prime Minister in Netah who
7:35
Speaker 1: to stop the attacks that are necessary against Hasbolah, which
7:40
Speaker 1: is on its last legs. And they need Iran to
7:43
Speaker 1: come out of this with a win because they don't
7:45
Speaker 1: have any money and the people of Lebanon hate them.
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Speaker 1: So all you need to know is that the United
7:50
Speaker 1: States has the upper hand. They have scored a dramatic
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Speaker 1: strategic victory over Iran's military, which is ruined. Don't use
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Speaker 1: the word decimated. People like to use the word decimated.
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Speaker 1: Every time I hear someone use the word decimated, and
8:04
Speaker 1: someone will probably use it today. Decimated actually means to
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Speaker 1: lose one tenth of your force. It was a punishment
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Speaker 1: that the Roman legions would be subject to when they
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Speaker 1: really screwed up, like Marcus Crass has took over the
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Speaker 1: legion that failed to kill Spartacus and his slave rebellion
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Speaker 1: thousands of years ago, and he ordered decimation. That's where
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Speaker 1: every tenth man in line got clubbed to death by
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Speaker 1: nine of his buddies. And you know what, It's a
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Speaker 1: pretty brutal way of inflicting punishment on a failed legion.
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Speaker 1: But decimation means to lose one tenth. It's not what
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Speaker 1: happened to Iran. They've lost seventy five to ninety percent
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Speaker 1: of their military. They cannot project power. Admiral Brad Cooper
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Speaker 1: took to the airwaves today to give the latest scent
8:48
Speaker 1: Coom update. I want to play it for you right now.
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Speaker 1: CUTT number six.
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Speaker 3: I'm met Brad Cooper, Commander of US Central Command. Less
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Speaker 3: than six weeks ago, more than fifty thousand of America's
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Speaker 3: Sons and DAWs uniform launched Operation Epic Fury and embarked
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Speaker 3: on the mission of Profound Consequence. We set out to
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Speaker 3: dismantle the Iranian regime's ability to project power beyond its
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Speaker 3: own borders, and we clearly accomplished this task. Iran has
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Speaker 3: suffered a generational military defeat. The United States and Israel
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Speaker 3: systematically destroyed Iran's ability to conduct large scale military operations
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Speaker 3: for years to come. Iran's conventional military capability, built over
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Speaker 3: forty years at the cost of billions of dollars, has
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Speaker 3: been eliminated. As the President expressed earlier this week, our
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Speaker 3: core strategic military objectives have been achieved. After destroying Iran's missile, drone,
9:43
Speaker 3: and naval capabilities and their defensive industrial base. After successfully
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Speaker 3: conducting more than thirteen thousand strikes on Iranian military targets
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Speaker 3: and flying thousands upon thousands of combat flights, US forces
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Speaker 3: have paused offensive operations in accordance with the ongoing ceasefire. However,
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Speaker 3: we remain present, we remain vigilant, and we remain ready
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Speaker 3: if cold.
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Speaker 1: That's all you need to know is that we are
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Speaker 1: in a very fragile ceasefire. It's one Iran asked for,
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Speaker 1: Iran blinked, and we don't know what's going to happen.
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Speaker 1: But we sent the heavy hitters, the people that the
10:19
Speaker 1: Iridians notes can speak with authority for President Trump, and
10:23
Speaker 1: if there's a deal to be had to remove the
10:25
Speaker 1: uranium and open the strait, they can have that deal
10:28
Speaker 1: and have a continuing ceasefire. But they're not going back
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Speaker 1: to terrorizing the world. That's not happening. That's the minimum
10:36
Speaker 1: is the opening of the strait of Hormons. Stay tuned.
10:38
Speaker 1: I'll be right back America. I'm Eleano Y. Johnson is
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Speaker 1: editor in chief of the Washington Free Beacon and a
10:45
Speaker 1: participant in almost every commentary podcast Monday through Friday.
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Speaker 2: Eleana, good to see you. I'm going to remind the audience.
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Speaker 1: You're graduate of Yale and Charles Hill was a great
10:55
Speaker 1: professor there. He took Grand strategy from him. So I'm
10:58
Speaker 1: going to my quiz is, we've had lots of high
11:01
Speaker 1: profile negotiations before the Islamab attacks. Do you expect them
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Speaker 1: to be Munich, Rakovic, Appomatics, Yalta, Potsdam, the Congress of Berlin?
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Speaker 1: What do you expect out of this weekend? O? G.
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Speaker 4: Hugh?
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Speaker 5: Well, I'm certainly hoping for appomatics. I'm not sure. I uh,
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Speaker 5: I'm hoping for appomatics, and uh, you know, maybe I
11:28
Speaker 5: think Raykovic is more more likely.
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Speaker 1: That's what I am predicting. I am afraid of Munich.
11:33
Speaker 1: Are you afraid of Munich?
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Speaker 5: Oh? I'm petrified of Munich, and you know I'm However,
11:43
Speaker 5: I'm petrified of something worse, which is that after ceasing hostilities,
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Speaker 5: there will be reluctance to resume war after two weeks
11:56
Speaker 5: if Iran does not agree to give up it's nuclear
12:02
Speaker 5: materials and its future capabilities, and that future presidents. You
12:09
Speaker 5: know that this president won't want to go back to war,
12:11
Speaker 5: and that no other president before this has been willing
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Speaker 5: to confront this regime militarily, and that no future president
12:18
Speaker 5: will do so either. So I'm afraid of that, Okay.
12:22
Speaker 1: So am I I don't think however, if there's been
12:26
Speaker 1: a report of a breach in the ceasefire today drones
12:29
Speaker 1: fired at Kuwait, but we know that Iran's got thirty
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Speaker 1: one provinces and a mosaic defense strategy, and any IRGC
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Speaker 1: commander and any of those provinces can do whatever they want,
12:39
Speaker 1: so it's pretty hard to patrol. One breach with drones
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Speaker 1: of Kuwait is not a reason to resume the war.
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Speaker 2: I want to know.
12:47
Speaker 1: If it's acceptable to you, because it's acceptable to me
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Speaker 1: if they get a pledge from Iran not to fire
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Speaker 1: on the Strait of Hormones, a standdown, and negotiations on
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Speaker 1: the removal of the in retched uranium in exchange for
13:02
Speaker 1: easing of sanctions, which will take a long time.
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Speaker 2: Would that be acceptable to you.
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Speaker 5: Under no conditions? Do I really think we should be
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Speaker 5: easing sanctions on this regime and allowing cash to flow
13:16
Speaker 5: into this And I would point out one thing in
13:19
Speaker 5: my view, Iran is already cheating on this ceasefire. It
13:23
Speaker 5: was a cease fire in exchange for the opening of
13:25
Speaker 5: the Strait of Horror Moves, and I don't believe that
13:28
Speaker 5: straight is open. It is an international waterway, and Iran
13:31
Speaker 5: is asserting control over it, demanding permission for vessels to
13:36
Speaker 5: cross and charging tolls. Maybe that won't continue, but as
13:39
Speaker 5: of right now, they're violating that ceasefire.
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Speaker 2: Secretary, I'm going to caution.
13:48
Speaker 1: My caution is I've seen reports that they're charging tolls
13:51
Speaker 1: and that they threaten and that people have turned back.
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Speaker 1: I saw a report that the ship that turned back
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Speaker 1: was in fact the Iranian shadow fleet that was afraid
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Speaker 1: of getting snatched by US. I have no idea what's
14:01
Speaker 1: going on there. Is it possible, It's just we don't
14:03
Speaker 1: know what's going on.
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Speaker 5: It's possible. I think we're in a fog of peace period.
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Speaker 5: It's possible, but I hope that our representatives refuse to
14:13
Speaker 5: sit down at the table if this is in fact
14:15
Speaker 5: a violation. The other thing that's concerning me is that
14:18
Speaker 5: the White House Press Secretary said yesterday Lebanon was not
14:21
Speaker 5: part of this ceasefire, and then it does appear the
14:23
Speaker 5: President is leaning on Israel to go easy on Hesbalah
14:27
Speaker 5: in Lebanon as a result of this. So it seems
14:30
Speaker 5: to me that we are giving quite a lot, and
14:32
Speaker 5: I don't really see the Iranians giving. I actually see
14:36
Speaker 5: them pressing their luck here.
14:37
Speaker 2: Okay.
14:38
Speaker 1: I saw them blink when they agreed to the ceasefire
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Speaker 1: negotiations because they said not now, not ever, and never,
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Speaker 1: we won't ever have a ceasefire, and then they did.
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Speaker 1: And now they're doing the classic Gharanian Islamist option, which is.
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Speaker 2: To lie about what they agreed to.
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Speaker 1: However, I'm willing to suspend judgment until we see what
14:57
Speaker 1: comes out of Islamabad. But I do believe I want
15:00
Speaker 1: to hear what people think is a loss, and I
15:02
Speaker 1: think a loss is if they have any control over
15:05
Speaker 1: the strait of hormones. That's actually a strategic loss.
15:08
Speaker 2: Do you agree with that.
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Speaker 5: I think a loss is if we don't achieve the
15:15
Speaker 5: political objectives we set out to achieve. I think we've
15:18
Speaker 5: achieved many of our military objectives. The ballistic missile and
15:25
Speaker 5: nuclear programs have been set back quite a bit in
15:28
Speaker 5: a brilliant military campaign, but they cannot have any control
15:31
Speaker 5: over the strait of horror moons. One hundred percent agree
15:33
Speaker 5: with you, and the reason we went into this war
15:35
Speaker 5: was to strip them of their nuclear capabilities and to
15:39
Speaker 5: extract from them a concession that they would not pursue
15:42
Speaker 5: those capabilities, and so I think that's also quite important
15:46
Speaker 5: to the control gre We're worse off than when we started,
15:50
Speaker 5: but I do think that the nuclear ambitions are quite
15:54
Speaker 5: important to.
15:55
Speaker 1: I agree about the fact that we've got to have
15:58
Speaker 1: an understanding that they are not moving forward with nuclear weaponry.
16:02
Speaker 1: But if it was here's two hundred of our six
16:05
Speaker 1: hundred pounds, take away a third of the sanction, then
16:09
Speaker 1: you can come get the four hundred pound and we
16:11
Speaker 1: get two thirds of the sanctions off, and then you
16:13
Speaker 1: get the six hundred pound and we get all the
16:15
Speaker 1: sanctions off.
16:16
Speaker 2: Does that work for you, Hugh.
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Speaker 5: I'd like to know what kind of verification goes along
16:25
Speaker 5: with that. I'm really skeptical of funding a regime that
16:30
Speaker 5: is fundamentally run by the IRGC. Despite what the President
16:36
Speaker 5: and the Defense Secretary is saying, there really hasn't been
16:38
Speaker 5: regime change. It is still really run by the same
16:41
Speaker 5: people that maybe you know a lower IQ three point
16:45
Speaker 5: zero version, but we haven't quite had regime change. And
16:48
Speaker 5: with that money they will rebuild their ballistic missiles to
16:52
Speaker 5: protect what they have. So I'd like to know what
16:55
Speaker 5: the verification is, and you know, I suppose I'm open
17:00
Speaker 5: to that with the right sort of verification.
17:04
Speaker 1: And so I can agree with all that as well.
17:06
Speaker 1: But do you think it is correct to be condemning
17:09
Speaker 1: the ceasefire as a taco? Jimmy Kimmel last night did that,
17:14
Speaker 1: and I see it everywhere on X. There's no way
17:17
Speaker 1: to judge it other than okay, they're going to the table.
17:20
Speaker 1: Iron said they were never going to go to the table.
17:21
Speaker 1: I think they said uncle, but now they don't want
17:23
Speaker 1: to be understood to be saying uncle. Last word to you,
17:26
Speaker 1: Aliana one minute.
17:28
Speaker 5: No you I think you know what you hear People
17:31
Speaker 5: who are steeped in diplomacy always say is that diplomacy
17:34
Speaker 5: only works with the threat of force looming In the background,
17:36
Speaker 5: and I really think that's the key here. I'm quite
17:39
Speaker 5: skeptical of the ceasefire because I'm skeptical that Iran will
17:42
Speaker 5: negotiate away things that we couldn't win on the battlefield.
17:46
Speaker 5: But I'm not condemning it. I'm willing to wait and see.
17:50
Speaker 5: And so the key thing is being willing to go
17:54
Speaker 5: back to war if Iran gives us the run around
17:57
Speaker 5: in these negotiations.
17:59
Speaker 1: Agreed, polar Rekovic walk out and presume firing at will.
18:04
Speaker 1: Eleian Ali Johnson, thank you. Follow on exit Elean O.
18:08
Speaker 1: Y Johnson, reader in the Free Beacon at the Freebeacon
18:11
Speaker 1: and Freebeacon dot Com. I'll be right back America Institution,
18:14
Speaker 1: Welcome back in America. I'm Hugh Hewett. Josh Cuash Hours,
18:17
Speaker 1: editor in chief of Jewish Insider. Josh, you studied international
18:22
Speaker 1: affairs for a long time. In the history of diplomacy,
18:26
Speaker 1: I got a long list here. We've got the Piece
18:28
Speaker 1: of Tislit in eighteen oh seven. We have the Congress
18:32
Speaker 1: of Vienna in eighteen fourteen. We've got Appomatics in eighteen
18:36
Speaker 1: sixty five. That's pretty straightforward. Got the Congress of Berlin
18:39
Speaker 1: in eighteen seventy eight. We've got the Munich Agreement in
18:42
Speaker 1: nineteen thirty eight, We've got y Alta in nineteen forty five,
18:46
Speaker 1: Potsdam in nineteen forty five, We've got Rekovic in nineteen
18:50
Speaker 1: eighty six. What do you expect out of Islamabad twenty
18:54
Speaker 1: twenty six.
18:57
Speaker 6: Che, I don't expect much.
18:58
Speaker 7: And I feel like we've played this, uh, this game
19:01
Speaker 7: before where we've engaged in serious negotiations with the Iranian
19:06
Speaker 7: regime through an intermediary. This time it's the Pakistanis. This
19:11
Speaker 7: time we're sending Vice President Jade Vance to lead the negotiations,
19:14
Speaker 7: which may suggest that the White House is thinking about
19:18
Speaker 7: more concessions than then in the past. But you know, look,
19:21
Speaker 7: it's hard to read whether this is actually I'm very
19:25
Speaker 7: skeptical this is going to lead to any real deal
19:28
Speaker 7: or anything concrete. I think it's you know, maybe on
19:32
Speaker 7: both ends to buy some time.
19:34
Speaker 6: UH.
19:35
Speaker 7: And what's been a pretty pretty devastating war for the Iranians,
19:38
Speaker 7: and in a tough, tough political moment for the president,
19:40
Speaker 7: dealing with a rough you know, at least on the
19:43
Speaker 7: on the gas prices side of the economy, dealing with
19:45
Speaker 7: a little bit of political pressure back home. So you know,
19:47
Speaker 7: I feel like this is almost a way to buy
19:49
Speaker 7: some time more than seeing this as a real likelihood
19:53
Speaker 7: that it'll lead to an agreement after two weeks.
19:56
Speaker 1: I think it's going to do a recovic two point zero.
19:58
Speaker 1: I think our guys are going to walk out. I
20:00
Speaker 1: certainly hope they walk out unless they get the minimum
20:02
Speaker 1: for a win. Now, I was on Special Report on
20:05
Speaker 1: Tuesday night when this happened, and so I had to
20:07
Speaker 1: do the instant reaction. I said, well, President Trump's tweet
20:10
Speaker 1: says the straits of horror moves will will open and
20:14
Speaker 1: will remain open. And I said, that's a win if
20:17
Speaker 1: that happens. If they open and we negotiate, that's a win.
20:20
Speaker 1: We have to negotiate over the highly enriched uranium, about sanctions.
20:24
Speaker 1: There's lots to talk to them about, but the strait
20:27
Speaker 1: has to be open or it's not a win. Do
20:29
Speaker 1: you agree with that assessment?
20:31
Speaker 2: Well, then we talked on the show.
20:32
Speaker 7: The three things that I've been paying close attention to
20:36
Speaker 7: is the metrics of success is you know, did did
20:38
Speaker 7: the US Israeli operation uh degrade? If I destroy the
20:42
Speaker 7: ballistic missile supply and missile launching missile launcher, supply the
20:47
Speaker 7: nuclear material as I've been dealt with, and and and
20:50
Speaker 7: and in the straight up hor moves, and then is
20:52
Speaker 7: it going to be opened up?
20:54
Speaker 8: At first, it's outed like, at least from Trump's.
20:56
Speaker 7: Assessment, that that that was happening. But we now seeing
21:00
Speaker 7: that the Iranians have closed it again and allegedly because
21:03
Speaker 7: of the Israeli military operation against Kasbola and Lebanon, and
21:07
Speaker 7: that's there's been some movement on that front as well today.
21:10
Speaker 7: But look, I still think there are a lot of
21:12
Speaker 7: incomplete grades and I think there's a lot of TBD
21:16
Speaker 7: grades on the other two parts of the equation. So
21:20
Speaker 7: you know, I think we, you know, the Israelis are
21:23
Speaker 7: a little bit you know, I think there there's a
21:26
Speaker 7: lot of questions and more questions, frankly you than answers
21:30
Speaker 7: about the degree to which the operation degraded Iran's military
21:34
Speaker 7: operational abilities and what it's going to happen economically, and
21:37
Speaker 7: will ran back down in terms of unblocking the straight
21:40
Speaker 7: of hor moves.
21:41
Speaker 1: Okay, let's just assume that we go back to the
21:43
Speaker 1: war on Monday, and because that's what happens after the record,
21:48
Speaker 1: it may keep threatening ships.
21:50
Speaker 2: We have to secure the strait of warm moves.
21:52
Speaker 1: We have to Is the world better off then than
21:56
Speaker 1: it was fifteen months ago?
22:00
Speaker 7: Look in the certainly Iran's military operations have been at
22:04
Speaker 7: the very least degraded to what degree, to what extent?
22:07
Speaker 7: I think that that's what we don't know fully. I
22:11
Speaker 7: you know, a lot of the early readouts about the
22:13
Speaker 7: percentage of ballistic missiles destroyed and the missile launchers destroyed
22:17
Speaker 7: seem seemed to be very good news. But then we
22:19
Speaker 7: kept on seeing Iran causing havoc to the skies of
22:23
Speaker 7: Tel Aviv and across the region with the Gulf States
22:26
Speaker 7: throughout that six week period. So I'd like to see
22:28
Speaker 7: a better or more detailed accounting of what Iran still
22:31
Speaker 7: has and its supplies. But I do think that if
22:34
Speaker 7: Iran's ability to you know, create havoc in the region,
22:39
Speaker 7: to you know, it's missile supplies that has meaningfully been degraded,
22:44
Speaker 7: I think that's definitely a win on the side of
22:47
Speaker 7: the US and Israel. I also think, obviously, the fact
22:49
Speaker 7: that so many of Iran's top political and military leaders
22:53
Speaker 7: were taken out both in the first twenty four hours
22:56
Speaker 7: of the operation, but throughout the six week period of
23:00
Speaker 7: the war. I mean that clearly there's a lot of
23:02
Speaker 7: brain brain drain in Iran, and there's a lot of
23:04
Speaker 7: political vacuums taking place.
23:06
Speaker 1: And let's talk about Hezbela as well. Israel just hammered
23:10
Speaker 1: Hesbela yesterday. They took all the planes that they weren't
23:12
Speaker 1: going to fly in Israel and they combined them with
23:15
Speaker 1: the planes that they were using over Lemana, and they
23:17
Speaker 1: just pounded the daylights out of the remnants of Hesbelah
23:20
Speaker 1: so much so that Iran said, well, we can't have
23:22
Speaker 1: these talks. But they're having the talks. They're just doing
23:24
Speaker 1: the Iranian thing. I think Hesbelah is ruined and Hamas
23:28
Speaker 1: has ruined, and Iran down to ten percent of what
23:31
Speaker 1: they were.
23:31
Speaker 2: So even if we go back to war and we
23:33
Speaker 2: pay more for.
23:34
Speaker 1: Gas, I'll take that any day over what they were
23:37
Speaker 1: and what they could threaten on ten six twenty three.
23:40
Speaker 2: Any day I'll take that.
23:43
Speaker 6: Yeah.
23:43
Speaker 7: And of course visually Hesbola the I think after talking
23:48
Speaker 7: to the President today, the Israeli Prime Minister agreed to
23:50
Speaker 7: at least start negotiations with the Lebanese government and pause
23:54
Speaker 7: the attack, So there's a little bit of TVD on
23:57
Speaker 7: the on the northern front. Though I agree with you
24:00
Speaker 7: one hundred percent that HESBLA has been significantly degraded from
24:04
Speaker 7: where things were in our Coober seven three years ago.
24:07
Speaker 2: The politics.
24:08
Speaker 7: Look, the thing I think that that has that Trump
24:10
Speaker 7: has struggled with is the politics of it all.
24:13
Speaker 6: Uh.
24:13
Speaker 7: You know, if he gave a speech to the public
24:15
Speaker 7: like he did much later on in the war, and
24:18
Speaker 7: and really talked about the mission, talked about the objectives,
24:21
Speaker 7: did things in a very crystal clear fashion, and and
24:24
Speaker 7: brought things to Congress, and I think you know that
24:26
Speaker 7: it's undeniable. Iran has been a scourge to the United
24:29
Speaker 7: States for for.
24:30
Speaker 2: Such a long time.
24:31
Speaker 7: He's been saying that, but there just wasn't the ability
24:34
Speaker 7: to bring things to the public. So I think when
24:36
Speaker 7: when you see the gas prices going up and you
24:37
Speaker 7: see the economic squeeze for the time being, you know,
24:40
Speaker 7: it's created a lot A lot of people don't understand
24:42
Speaker 7: the mission that the US has undertaken and what the
24:45
Speaker 7: achievements that they've made. I think the pending on briefings
24:48
Speaker 7: have been helpful. I think that's been been a big
24:50
Speaker 7: plus in terms of the communication side. But the President,
24:53
Speaker 7: I think kind of cut a lot of Americans by surprise,
24:55
Speaker 7: and it's been hard to kind of maintain that public
24:58
Speaker 7: support when the economy, especially the gas prices, were taking
25:02
Speaker 7: the hit during this period.
25:03
Speaker 1: Well, I'll play Brad Cooper again. In the course of
25:05
Speaker 1: the show, I thought of his statement today was pretty good.
25:08
Speaker 1: But I would encourage everyone to go out and ask
25:11
Speaker 1: Rock or ask chat Jeep, TP or your favorite AI
25:15
Speaker 1: what was the reaction after Reagan walked out of Rekovic?
25:18
Speaker 1: Because Rekkovic was actually a big win for freedom in
25:21
Speaker 1: the West, but it didn't look like it at the time.
25:24
Speaker 1: You're too young, Josh. I don't even know if you're born.
25:26
Speaker 1: Are you born in nineteen eighty six?
25:28
Speaker 7: And the circus history I was born I mentioned eighty one.
25:31
Speaker 7: So I do as someone who lived during the fall
25:36
Speaker 7: of the Berlin Wall, that is that you're right to you.
25:38
Speaker 7: But this is an important moment, at the tipping point
25:41
Speaker 7: moment and where things, how the talks go and what
25:44
Speaker 7: happens on there are going to be very tough to
25:46
Speaker 7: up hit.
25:47
Speaker 2: Josh Crashaw. We'll talk again next week.
25:49
Speaker 1: Follow Josh at Josh crash Hour and also Jewish Insider
25:53
Speaker 1: at Jewish Underscore Insider.
25:55
Speaker 2: I'll be right back, America. Thank you.
25:57
Speaker 1: Hour begins with Ben and Ben Talablu of the Foundation
26:00
Speaker 1: for the Defensive Democracy.
26:01
Speaker 2: He's a senior program director for Iran. He's also the.
26:05
Speaker 1: Senior Fellow at the Foundation for the Defensive Democracy. Ben,
26:08
Speaker 1: and welcome back. What do you make of where we
26:11
Speaker 1: are on this Thursday at five pm each coast time.
26:16
Speaker 9: Well, always good to be back with you, Hugh. The
26:19
Speaker 9: world is indeed full of surprises. We do live in
26:23
Speaker 9: interesting times. The Islamic Republic is getting ready to negotiate,
26:27
Speaker 9: reportedly at the highest level indirectly since nineteen seventy nine.
26:32
Speaker 9: As you know, they've asked for Vice President JD.
26:34
Speaker 8: Vance to be there. The Vice President himself is keen.
26:37
Speaker 9: To go, and unfortunately a little bit of a slide,
26:41
Speaker 9: I don't want to say in the US position, but
26:43
Speaker 9: a potentially a worrying sign of the Islamic Republic's ability
26:47
Speaker 9: to still use pressure and set the table for negotiations
26:51
Speaker 9: as it deems fit. As you know, there's been a
26:53
Speaker 9: ceasefire for about two days right now. But the joke
26:56
Speaker 9: best conveyed not by me, but by people in Iran
26:58
Speaker 9: who've been posting this on social media with the very
27:01
Speaker 9: limited internet access they have, is that man, we can't
27:04
Speaker 9: sleep yet due to all the sounds of the ceasefire,
27:07
Speaker 9: meaning that the war is still continuing despite the ceasefire
27:11
Speaker 9: allegedly still underway.
27:14
Speaker 8: And why that matters here.
27:15
Speaker 9: Is because Israel really should not have to turn off
27:19
Speaker 9: its military mission against Lebanese Hezbolah, but that is seemingly
27:23
Speaker 9: a sticking point for the Islamic Republic in these talks.
27:29
Speaker 9: There was a report from earlier today that these rallies
27:31
Speaker 9: believe they got the Secretary General nine Costle of Hesbela.
27:34
Speaker 8: That still hasn't been confirmed as of now.
27:37
Speaker 9: We're waiting for more local sources, potentially Hesbala sources to
27:40
Speaker 9: come out with that information. But there was a family
27:43
Speaker 9: member that was killed as well as another seniors senior
27:46
Speaker 9: ranking Hesbel official. And this matter is because the latest
27:49
Speaker 9: news out of Washington is now Washington will mediate between
27:52
Speaker 9: these rallies and the Lebanese in DC next week, and
27:56
Speaker 9: that might be a move by the US to try
27:58
Speaker 9: to placate this Iranian concern of what is going on
28:02
Speaker 9: in Lebanon while you are negotiating a ceasefire and a
28:05
Speaker 9: potential deconfliction deal with US in Pakistan. So keep your
28:09
Speaker 9: eye on how the table is being set for negotiations
28:13
Speaker 9: up until Saturday, and then after Saturday, let's.
28:16
Speaker 8: Wait and see what first contact looks like post war.
28:20
Speaker 1: Now a Benham, I have been explaining all program long
28:24
Speaker 1: that we've had lots of high profile meetings in the
28:27
Speaker 1: course of the history of diplomacy, from the piece of
28:30
Speaker 1: Tislet to Rekovic. We've had Munich as the worst case,
28:33
Speaker 1: Yalta has a bad case. Rekovic is something that looked
28:36
Speaker 1: bad that turned out well, and then we like appomatics.
28:40
Speaker 1: What do you think is the most likely result? Using
28:42
Speaker 1: a historical analogy that might be familiar to everyone except
28:45
Speaker 1: the Steelers fans.
28:48
Speaker 8: Funny thing, I was actually in Pittsburgh just recently, so
28:52
Speaker 8: you're hitting close to where I just was.
28:55
Speaker 9: Using a past diplomatic metaphor, I think anyone that has collapsed,
28:59
Speaker 9: any one that has been oversold but under delivered, and
29:03
Speaker 9: here I think there's been a ton in the Iran case,
29:06
Speaker 9: the Geneva negotiations, the Vienna negotiations, the indirect diplomacy via
29:12
Speaker 9: the Omani's pay take your pick of the attempts post
29:15
Speaker 9: Trump term one by divided administration by America's Middle Eastern
29:21
Speaker 9: partners European partners to try to moderate or mediate even
29:24
Speaker 9: by the P five plus one, to try to bring
29:26
Speaker 9: America and Iran together, where politically something was over sold
29:30
Speaker 9: but in the end was under delivered and under delivered
29:34
Speaker 9: because of the chasm that exists in principle between America
29:38
Speaker 9: and between Iran. So for my view, the reason I'm
29:41
Speaker 9: taking this, you could say, rather pessimistic view of what
29:44
Speaker 9: may come on Saturday. And who knows, perhaps the Iranians
29:47
Speaker 9: may surrender. I think that's low probability. Who knows, perhaps
29:52
Speaker 9: the US may strike Iran again. I mean, if passes prologue,
29:55
Speaker 9: President Trump does like striking the Islamic Republic. Wild negotiations
29:59
Speaker 9: are underway both in June as well as in late February,
30:03
Speaker 9: so you can never say never. But if all things equal,
30:07
Speaker 9: all things hold, it'll be over promised and under delivery.
30:10
Speaker 8: Which might leave the US in a bit more of
30:12
Speaker 8: a frustrated position.
30:13
Speaker 9: So from there you can take your pick of any
30:15
Speaker 9: historical example of negotiations.
30:17
Speaker 8: That collapse and lead to war, lead to resumed war.
30:21
Speaker 1: I like to point to Rekovic Benham for the simple
30:24
Speaker 1: reason I was in the Reagan administration. I remember it well.
30:27
Speaker 1: I want to read to you the first two paragraphs
30:28
Speaker 1: out of the New York Times after those meetings collapse.
30:32
Speaker 1: Moments after President Reagan and Gorbachev concluded their meeting in
30:35
Speaker 1: Rekovic Sunday night, its outcome seemed clear.
30:38
Speaker 2: Mister Reagan was grim faced, even angry.
30:40
Speaker 1: And Secretary of State George Schultz showed up at a news
30:43
Speaker 1: conference looking haggard and drain quote. I have never even
30:46
Speaker 1: seen Schultz exude through his word, the base of his comments,
30:50
Speaker 1: his facial expression such disappointment and defeat. City key administration official. Okay,
30:56
Speaker 1: it collapsed. Three years later that Berlin Wall came down,
30:58
Speaker 1: and two years after that the union dissolve.
31:01
Speaker 2: The least worst case is JD.
31:05
Speaker 1: Vance and mister Whitcoff and Jared Kushner leave and they
31:09
Speaker 1: get nothing like happened in round one, but.
31:12
Speaker 2: We go back to war.
31:13
Speaker 1: The worst case is the strait remains closed and we
31:17
Speaker 1: don't go back to war.
31:18
Speaker 2: Do you agree with me about that?
31:21
Speaker 9: Potentially, I would say the worst case is America actually
31:24
Speaker 9: pays at the political negotiating table or at the bargaining
31:27
Speaker 9: table for that which is it has already taken away
31:30
Speaker 9: for free from this regime. You know, the goal here
31:34
Speaker 9: is to not pivot to a domain where the regime
31:36
Speaker 9: is more comfortable or more capable than us.
31:39
Speaker 8: I fear. I mean this with immense respects.
31:41
Speaker 9: We may have intellectually and economically made that switch for
31:46
Speaker 9: them already. The US was winning this when it came
31:49
Speaker 9: to politics and security, but Iran's ability to make it
31:52
Speaker 9: about energy and economics got had a sweet spot for
31:55
Speaker 9: them and got in an Achilles heel for us. And
31:58
Speaker 9: the more we concerned about markets rather than military forces,
32:02
Speaker 9: the more ultimately the Islamic Republic realize it has leveraged
32:05
Speaker 9: now pivoting from a conflict which it was always a
32:08
Speaker 9: matter of time that the regime will lose to a
32:11
Speaker 9: domain negotiations diplomacy where the regime does have muscles that
32:15
Speaker 9: could rival ours.
32:16
Speaker 8: That to me is a little bit worrisome.
32:18
Speaker 9: So I think the worst case is actually that we
32:20
Speaker 9: have to stabilize through sanctions relief a regime like.
32:24
Speaker 8: The Islamic Republic where we are so.
32:27
Speaker 9: Interested in the optics of a political victory following our
32:30
Speaker 9: military engagement that we actually end up expending more than
32:35
Speaker 9: that which we get.
32:36
Speaker 2: So and that's the only result is get worse.
32:39
Speaker 1: The only result that will cause President Trump politically is
32:42
Speaker 1: that one. If he does that, he'll split the Republican Party,
32:47
Speaker 1: and the Reaganas will be very angry if he does that,
32:51
Speaker 1: and they will be very disappointed. So I don't think
32:53
Speaker 1: he's going to do that. I think this president's been
32:55
Speaker 1: on the Iran file for since nineteen seventy nine. He
33:00
Speaker 1: loves these people and he understands how they negotiate, and
33:03
Speaker 1: wit Coffin Kushner.
33:04
Speaker 2: Pulled the plug.
33:06
Speaker 1: Why is there so little confidence that the United States
33:10
Speaker 1: can actually call their bluff because they got nothing they
33:14
Speaker 1: really I mean, we can take the straight We did
33:16
Speaker 1: that before.
33:17
Speaker 2: They got more missiles now, but we've done that before.
33:22
Speaker 8: The challenge with the Strait is by us over focusing
33:25
Speaker 8: on it.
33:25
Speaker 9: We may have signaled to the regime that we were
33:28
Speaker 9: more sensitive to market forces than meets the eye. The
33:31
Speaker 9: regime actually expended more forces you just mentioned during the
33:34
Speaker 9: tanker war against US and against Arab partners related to
33:38
Speaker 9: Persian Gulf shipping.
33:40
Speaker 8: Than it has now. But somehow now its threat is
33:43
Speaker 8: more magnified.
33:44
Speaker 9: That has a lot more to do with markets, with firms,
33:46
Speaker 9: with shippers, with insurers that it has to do with
33:49
Speaker 9: America or Israel or the UAE or even the capability
33:53
Speaker 9: or credibility of Iran's military forces in twenty twenty six
33:57
Speaker 9: than it.
33:58
Speaker 8: Did back in the mid to late nineteen eighties. So again,
34:02
Speaker 8: those are the things that worry me. Those are the.
34:04
Speaker 9: Things that keep me up at night. But you are
34:06
Speaker 9: right that the president, you know, in the big picture,
34:09
Speaker 9: is seeing the issue the right way. My only fear
34:13
Speaker 9: is if we again worry more about these market forces
34:16
Speaker 9: so publicly, that is a signal to the regime to
34:19
Speaker 9: hunker down and resist. And again, these guys can do
34:22
Speaker 9: more with less because they're not keen to provide for
34:24
Speaker 9: their people anyway. That which we constitute in terms of rebuilding, they.
34:29
Speaker 8: Don't think is the priority. When it's rebuilding.
34:31
Speaker 9: We think after a war, rebuilding is rebuilding society, rebuilding
34:35
Speaker 9: the economy. Those are things that the regime is ready
34:38
Speaker 9: to let slide because they will take every dollar, every penny,
34:41
Speaker 9: every real no matter how worthless that currency is, and
34:44
Speaker 9: not invested into the economy, not invested into infrastructure, but
34:47
Speaker 9: back into the arms race so that they can stay afloat.
34:51
Speaker 2: I agree with all that.
34:51
Speaker 1: I just don't think we're going to do it because
34:54
Speaker 1: I think Donald Trump is Yeah. Now, Eli Lake is
34:58
Speaker 1: just posted over at the Free Press an article on
35:01
Speaker 1: the five person governing Council. It includes three i r
35:05
Speaker 1: GC hardcore veterans, the Foreign Minister, Archie and the President Possession.
35:13
Speaker 1: Who do you think I think that's really just three
35:15
Speaker 1: hardcore IRGC guys are running this.
35:17
Speaker 2: Do you agree with that?
35:20
Speaker 8: I agree with you.
35:20
Speaker 9: And funny story. You know here in English we say
35:23
Speaker 9: great minds think alike. In Persian we say a heart
35:26
Speaker 9: has a pathway to a hearts. We had FDD, a
35:29
Speaker 9: colleague of mine, actually pend a profile on the five
35:32
Speaker 9: most important people.
35:33
Speaker 8: It's and it's basically a similar constellation. We think. We
35:36
Speaker 8: put it out about a week or a week and
35:37
Speaker 8: a half ago.
35:39
Speaker 9: Eli just actually texted me his piece funny story, and
35:42
Speaker 9: so I will respond with ours. But it is all
35:44
Speaker 9: about Ahmad Vahidi who is heading the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps,
35:49
Speaker 9: and General Zohlgad who is heading the Supreme National Security Council.
35:53
Speaker 9: Pay attention to those people. Obviously, the presidency is not
35:57
Speaker 9: what it is in Iran as it is here in
35:59
Speaker 9: the States. I would pay attention to the head of
36:01
Speaker 9: the judiciary as well, who was previously on the Leadership Council.
36:06
Speaker 9: That's Age who's been ahead of the judiciary and really
36:10
Speaker 9: head of Geiran's injustice system.
36:13
Speaker 8: For far too long.
36:14
Speaker 9: But I would recommend folks take a look at that
36:16
Speaker 9: pre press piece fight Eli because this is a system
36:19
Speaker 9: based on people, not based on.
36:20
Speaker 1: Institutions, and they may not have those jobs for long
36:24
Speaker 1: if they don't open the straight That's my view. Ben
36:27
Speaker 1: Ben and Ben Talablue, thank you for being with us.
36:29
Speaker 1: Follo him at the real Ben to Hey, I would
36:32
Speaker 1: get that wrong. Follow him at the real benin bt
36:35
Speaker 1: B e h n a m the real Benan bt.
36:39
Speaker 1: I'll be right back on the U huit chew. Welcome
36:44
Speaker 1: back in America. I'm go Hewett Rear. Admiral Mark Montgomery,
36:47
Speaker 1: retired United States Navy is a senior Fellow with the
36:50
Speaker 1: Foundation for the Defensive Democracies. Admiral, welcome back. Thank you
36:53
Speaker 1: for joining me. I want to skip right to what
36:56
Speaker 1: I think is going to happen. Rekovic two point zero
36:58
Speaker 1: a walkout by the America delegation of the Iraniandelic collapse
37:02
Speaker 1: and then just tell me what happened. If Donald Trump
37:05
Speaker 1: orders Admiral Cooper to reopen the Strait of Hormotes?
37:08
Speaker 2: How did he do it?
37:10
Speaker 4: So first, I think we got to go back to
37:12
Speaker 4: whatever targeting is left on the deliberate and dynamic targeting sets.
37:17
Speaker 6: And you know that's what they've been doing.
37:19
Speaker 4: They did not their planning teams didn't you know, taking
37:22
Speaker 4: a Loha Friday after the ceasefire was discussed and take liberty.
37:26
Speaker 4: They sat back and got a good chance to re
37:29
Speaker 4: examine their target sets. Where where do we think mines, drones,
37:36
Speaker 4: missiles and small attack craft that could threaten assets in
37:40
Speaker 4: the States or who moves are And so they've been
37:42
Speaker 4: getting that targeting set together.
37:45
Speaker 6: They'll come back to them with a hey, we need
37:46
Speaker 6: to apply.
37:47
Speaker 4: Power for three, five, seven, nine days whatever it is
37:50
Speaker 4: of bombing, including having aircraft that are just up for
37:54
Speaker 4: dynamic targeting that as we hit something, somebody else moves
37:57
Speaker 4: kind of stuff. And then you know, be ready to
38:01
Speaker 4: apply that power once you get that rate reduced down
38:05
Speaker 4: to an acceptable risk for the US assets and the
38:08
Speaker 4: merchants going through the straits then have to set up
38:12
Speaker 4: an extremely you know, equipment and.
38:15
Speaker 6: Manpower intensive convoys set up.
38:20
Speaker 4: We've talked about it once or twice, but I think
38:23
Speaker 4: you know, to me, it's you've got to have that
38:25
Speaker 4: unblinking eye, really focus your persistent overhead stare on that
38:31
Speaker 4: area of vulnerability, you know, fifty to seventy miles on
38:35
Speaker 4: either side of the straits. Because their runnings won't just
38:38
Speaker 4: attack at the top of the straits, attack.
38:40
Speaker 6: All the way through that. You've got to.
38:42
Speaker 4: Put combat air patrol, you know, eight aircraft and four
38:47
Speaker 4: cap stations, probably just sitting there with the rockets the
38:51
Speaker 4: advanced precision killed weapons system to shoot down the drones,
38:55
Speaker 4: but also strike weapons on their pylon so that they can.
38:58
Speaker 6: If someone pops your head up, get lad right.
39:00
Speaker 4: And so you've got those aircraft up, and that's a
39:04
Speaker 4: twenty four to seven commitment of eight aircraft.
39:06
Speaker 6: That's a lot.
39:07
Speaker 4: And then you've got a tens or armed helicopters down
39:12
Speaker 4: on the deck to hit the fast attack craft. Twenty
39:15
Speaker 4: four to seven, so probably a tens in daylight, helicopters
39:17
Speaker 4: at night. I mean, your choice on that. And then
39:19
Speaker 4: you've got to have destroyers. So this extra time is
39:22
Speaker 4: giving us time to flow in destroyers from Japan, from Hawaii,
39:26
Speaker 4: from San Diego that I think have been happening, from
39:28
Speaker 4: the East Coast that I think have been happening, so
39:30
Speaker 4: that you have a thicker number of destroyers, not just
39:32
Speaker 4: the destroyers with the Bush Carrier Strike Group that's coming in,
39:37
Speaker 4: but independent sailing destroyers that are then part of the
39:41
Speaker 4: convoy operation.
39:43
Speaker 6: And then you can begin doing.
39:44
Speaker 4: Your convoys and they'll be risk but once you get
39:47
Speaker 4: a couple through, you'll understand, and then they'll have to
39:49
Speaker 4: be a decision on mind sweeping. Based on how the
39:51
Speaker 4: Iranians are routing ships right now, we probably have a
39:54
Speaker 4: pretty good idea if there's a minefield laid and where
39:57
Speaker 4: it is, and then we can, you know, decide how
40:00
Speaker 4: we go about sweeping it. But I assume at that
40:03
Speaker 4: point all three lcs will be back, you know, uh,
40:07
Speaker 4: cutting circles somewhere in the North Arabian Sea, ready to
40:10
Speaker 4: go do that mission.
40:11
Speaker 2: Now.
40:12
Speaker 1: I know you've expressed confidence before, and you've been your
40:16
Speaker 1: prediction has been worn out that the Lincoln in the
40:19
Speaker 1: Ford didn't have much to worry about. If Arlie Burke
40:22
Speaker 1: class destroyers are going up and down the straights of
40:24
Speaker 1: hour moves in convoy. Do those ships as both are
40:27
Speaker 1: the merchant ships have anything? What's the degree of risk
40:30
Speaker 1: to the best destroyers we have?
40:34
Speaker 6: There's risk.
40:36
Speaker 4: First of all, the minds are a big risk to me.
40:39
Speaker 4: And then you know, it's a very short if they
40:43
Speaker 4: if they've somehow kept an anti ship cruise missile with
40:45
Speaker 4: its tail launcher available and it pops out, I think
40:49
Speaker 4: one of them launching isn't a risk to a destroyer.
40:52
Speaker 4: They'll have no problem with it. Even at a short
40:54
Speaker 4: range like that. They have a short decision cycle. They're
40:57
Speaker 4: going to be biased towards hostile. It was biased towards
41:00
Speaker 4: shooting anything coming out. And then but then if there's
41:03
Speaker 4: two or three launched simultaneously from slightly different angles at
41:08
Speaker 4: one asset, that's going to be hard. I think the
41:11
Speaker 4: destoriers can still defend themselves. What becomes a little bit
41:13
Speaker 4: harder is defending someone who's slightly off access from me,
41:16
Speaker 4: like a merchant ship.
41:17
Speaker 6: So my gut reactions.
41:19
Speaker 4: You know, almost all weapon systems are optimized to be
41:22
Speaker 4: their coolest and best defending themselves, and then their area
41:26
Speaker 4: air defense capabilities are good, but slightly reduced, So there
41:30
Speaker 4: is a risk and that's why you keep bombing a
41:33
Speaker 4: little bit. You take this pause to see if anyone
41:36
Speaker 4: showed their hand like they took something out and put
41:38
Speaker 4: it back in, moved something that unusual communications around an area.
41:43
Speaker 6: I'm sure we're developing.
41:45
Speaker 4: Target sets to continue to viscerate that the thing that
41:49
Speaker 4: does was more likely to come out, you know, come
41:51
Speaker 4: flying at of a drones, and I'm a little less
41:54
Speaker 4: worried about those in terms of I think the FA
41:56
Speaker 4: teens can pick n F sixteens and F fifteen's can
41:59
Speaker 4: pick them off with their advanced posision killed weapon system.
42:02
Speaker 6: But you know there'll be more of them that could
42:04
Speaker 6: be like.
42:07
Speaker 1: This pause is also giving the second amphib with the
42:11
Speaker 1: second Marine Expeditionary Unit time to get there from San Diego,
42:15
Speaker 1: joined the one that came from Japan. What do you
42:18
Speaker 1: foresee them having, if any, role in securing the strait?
42:22
Speaker 1: I mean, do they go ashore at some point and
42:24
Speaker 1: sweep up and down and inland in order.
42:28
Speaker 2: To secure a patch opposite the straight.
42:33
Speaker 4: You know, I think seizing and holding territory against a
42:36
Speaker 4: population of ninety million who who although they may not
42:40
Speaker 4: like the regime, do not like being occupied would be
42:44
Speaker 4: a stretch. And look, we've just demonstrated we weren't ready.
42:49
Speaker 4: Our landforces are not ready for drone attack. For long
42:53
Speaker 4: range drawing attacks by your heads, they hit things they
42:55
Speaker 4: shouldn't have been able to hit because we have not
42:58
Speaker 4: properly designed acceptor drones.
43:01
Speaker 6: Similarly, I don't think we're ready.
43:03
Speaker 4: For first person view draw the FPV one way attack drones,
43:07
Speaker 4: the shorter range ones that kill the Ukrainians will tell
43:11
Speaker 4: you they kill. Eighty percent of Russian combat casualties come
43:15
Speaker 4: from drone strikes, either air or ground drone strikes.
43:20
Speaker 6: I don't think we're ready for that either.
43:21
Speaker 4: I don't think we have the jaming capabilities inherent in
43:24
Speaker 4: our units in a way that would be helpful. So
43:26
Speaker 4: I think we should hold off seizing and holding land
43:30
Speaker 4: because the rest.
43:32
Speaker 6: Of force would be too high.
43:34
Speaker 4: Plus once you do that, I want to talk about
43:36
Speaker 4: every asset you have being piled in for risk to
43:39
Speaker 4: mission to protect, to protect those assets and the impact
43:42
Speaker 4: that I have on all your other mission other which
43:44
Speaker 4: if you seize an island like carg Island, I'm not
43:47
Speaker 4: saying we would do that at this point, but if
43:48
Speaker 4: you did, you have to put multiple destroyers around it
43:52
Speaker 4: provide air defense for the assets there. So I really
43:55
Speaker 4: don't think seizing and holding land. You can use marines
43:59
Speaker 4: to clear someone off of something doing an assertion extraction
44:03
Speaker 4: in smaller units, I see value in that, But if
44:06
Speaker 4: you're going to season hold land man, you're you're really
44:10
Speaker 4: taking a lot of risk of force.
44:13
Speaker 2: Give me a question.
44:13
Speaker 1: I don't think the Ukrainians obviously know a lot more
44:17
Speaker 1: about using and defending drones than we do, but we
44:20
Speaker 1: have a lot of sunk costs and not being Ukraine's
44:23
Speaker 1: friends over the last two years. Have we gotten over
44:26
Speaker 1: that and are we working with the Ukrainians to absorb
44:29
Speaker 1: what they know about defense and offense needs to be
44:31
Speaker 1: drawne we have a minute.
44:33
Speaker 6: Yep, look we are.
44:36
Speaker 4: We have not done enough yet to absorb everything they
44:39
Speaker 4: have and absorb their technology. And their technology is not
44:41
Speaker 4: perfect for us that you know, people, I love the
44:43
Speaker 4: Ukrainian stuff, you know, I believe in it. I also
44:45
Speaker 4: know that it doesn't link into our weapon. We like
44:48
Speaker 4: to have all the weapons systems linked together so your
44:50
Speaker 4: drone doesn't accidentally shoot.
44:52
Speaker 6: Down my F fifteen. Right, So I'm a tiny there's
44:56
Speaker 6: the art legitimate concerns.
44:58
Speaker 2: But when we.
44:59
Speaker 4: Dismissed them a year ago as part of our general
45:01
Speaker 4: dismissing if you don't have cards, they had cards and
45:05
Speaker 4: we didn't take You know, we could have grabbed a
45:07
Speaker 4: couple of aces from them.
45:08
Speaker 6: We didn't.
45:10
Speaker 1: Uh.
45:10
Speaker 2: Still time to do it. I hope we do.
45:12
Speaker 1: Admiral Mark Montgomery follow him on AX at Mark C.
45:16
Speaker 2: Montgomery. He knows of which he speaks. Thank you, my friends.
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Speaker 1: that's pretty good.
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Speaker 10: It's only twenty three dollars for a full year of
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Speaker 10: Global Posts, so that's you know, five days a week,
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Speaker 1: And always full of news from around the world that
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Speaker 1: you no longer get in many newspapers, or if you do,
47:04
Speaker 1: you miss a lot, like for example, what's going on
47:07
Speaker 1: in Peru. When Philip sent me this story for today,
47:10
Speaker 1: I actually thought that Peru had settled down last year
47:13
Speaker 1: and I missed another.
47:14
Speaker 2: Impeachment, Philip. I mean, I had no idea. I thought
47:19
Speaker 2: they'd settled down.
47:21
Speaker 10: They had seven presidents in a row who've been removed
47:26
Speaker 10: from office, I mean in ten years, just amazing.
47:30
Speaker 6: So we don't have a reason why we're doing We.
47:33
Speaker 2: Don't have any problems compared to Peru.
47:35
Speaker 1: I want to put up a map so people, you know,
47:37
Speaker 1: the Steelers fans know where Peru is. We'll throw it
47:41
Speaker 1: up there. As you're talking. Please explain to people as
47:44
Speaker 1: what's going on.
47:46
Speaker 10: So they have had entrenched political stability really going back
47:54
Speaker 10: through the twentieth century for many reasons. Maybe you remember
47:58
Speaker 10: here the Shining Path guerrilla movement that was a huge problem.
48:03
Speaker 6: All kinds of.
48:06
Speaker 10: Attacks, and yeah there was President Fujimori was the president
48:13
Speaker 10: at that time. In any event, there's a combination of problems.
48:18
Speaker 10: They have criminal drug gangs. This is a problem of course,
48:24
Speaker 10: you know in Colombia, in Ecuador, now in Peru, and
48:30
Speaker 10: it's just hard to control so much money, so many drugs.
48:35
Speaker 6: They have a difficult economy, that.
48:40
Speaker 10: Not giving people who left opportunity. They don't have enough
48:43
Speaker 10: government services, and they have endemic corruption. I mean, of
48:47
Speaker 10: these seven presidents in a row, most of them have
48:51
Speaker 10: been impeached for reasons of corruption, or at least they
48:55
Speaker 10: were accused of it. Some were actually sentenced to prison
49:00
Speaker 10: Philly long terms ten years, twenty five years. So this
49:05
Speaker 10: is they just can't seem to get past this and
49:08
Speaker 10: have stability. They have thirty candidates running for president.
49:13
Speaker 1: And when those thirty candidates, when they vote, do they
49:15
Speaker 1: come down to two then the top two vote getters.
49:19
Speaker 10: If somebody gets fifty one percent, it's over. But the
49:23
Speaker 10: likelihood of that is small, so there would be a
49:28
Speaker 10: runoff election in June if no one gets fifty one percent.
49:32
Speaker 1: Now there's a Fuji Mori on the ballot, but it's
49:35
Speaker 1: his daughter. Does she have any poll by name identification
49:39
Speaker 1: like Bolsonaro in Brazil the Sun is running.
49:43
Speaker 6: She does, I.
49:44
Speaker 10: Mean she does, She actually has in the polling, she
49:48
Speaker 10: has more support than anyone else, but that's only fifteen percent,
49:52
Speaker 10: so you can see the chances of her or someone
49:56
Speaker 10: else getting to fifty one is not great. But Peru's
50:01
Speaker 10: an incredible country you know, one of the greatest tourist
50:05
Speaker 10: destinations in the world, you know, with Machu.
50:07
Speaker 1: Pichu, and they have such different topography. My law school
50:12
Speaker 1: roommate is retired now goes down there and works with
50:15
Speaker 1: the local Catholics on an agricultural project. I know that
50:18
Speaker 1: Jim Harbaugh, coach Haarbaugh, has been down there a lot
50:21
Speaker 1: with the Catholic Church, and of course Popo Leo spent
50:23
Speaker 1: a lot of time in Peru. I'm so sort of
50:27
Speaker 1: confused by how can a country that is so beloved
50:30
Speaker 1: by people who visit it be so unstable in it's politics.
50:34
Speaker 1: It's not like revolutionary violence. It's just corruption, isn't it.
50:38
Speaker 6: It is, that's right.
50:40
Speaker 10: I mean, the gorilla movements have pretty much all finished,
50:44
Speaker 10: at least in Peru. I mean, this is just a
50:48
Speaker 10: long standing problem. As I said, it really goes back
50:50
Speaker 10: to the beginning of the twentieth century.
50:53
Speaker 6: It just seems to have accelerated in the twenty first century.
50:56
Speaker 10: And part of the problem is that the Constitution a
51:01
Speaker 10: number of years ago it gave the single house of
51:05
Speaker 10: their Congress the power to impeach the president pretty much
51:11
Speaker 10: for any reason they decide, and that has destabilized the
51:18
Speaker 10: kind of the checks and balances. So actually they have
51:20
Speaker 10: another constitutional amendment that is going to change that this year,
51:25
Speaker 10: where in addition to the Chamber of Deputies the lower house,
51:29
Speaker 10: they'll have a Senate again, so there'll be more balanced
51:32
Speaker 10: between the Parliament, if you will, and the president. So
51:36
Speaker 10: maybe this parade of impeachments will stop.
51:40
Speaker 2: More on the American model. I hope.
51:42
Speaker 1: Well, our paradive impeachment will pick up again if the
51:45
Speaker 1: House flips in November, but it won't throw a President
51:48
Speaker 1: Trump out office. Philip, I want to remind everyone the
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52:40
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Speaker 1: and I've been talking about it all day, Philip, I
52:51
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