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MLB Betting Update · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network.
0:13
Speaker 1: I I M Chad Millman. We've got a massive show because,
0:17
Speaker 1: as usual, since it's late July, NFL drama is heating
0:21
Speaker 1: up faster than a high school drama on Disney. Plus
0:26
Speaker 1: Simon Hunter, my bff, my companient, He's gonna come in.
0:31
Speaker 1: We're gonna talk all about what's happening with the Packers,
0:34
Speaker 1: what's happening with Deshaun Watson. How should we be thinking
0:37
Speaker 1: about all that as we head into the NFL season
0:40
Speaker 1: as it relates to futures and wind totals and division
0:42
Speaker 1: winds and conference winds and all that kind of good stuff.
0:44
Speaker 1: Plus later in the show, b J. Cunningham, who famously
0:48
Speaker 1: came on earlier in the year and won the Thursday
0:51
Speaker 1: Thunderdome with some phenomenal question answering and trivia expertise that
0:57
Speaker 1: was funny at next level and in depth. He is
1:00
Speaker 1: one of our baseball geniuses. He's going to talk about
1:04
Speaker 1: baseball in the second half, betting the second half of
1:06
Speaker 1: the season, along with Colin Whitchurch, our baseball senior editor,
1:10
Speaker 1: a man who knows more about baseball than most of
1:13
Speaker 1: us can remember. In a single day. I'm looking forward
1:17
Speaker 1: to that. But first, Simon, I feel like we haven't
1:21
Speaker 1: spoken in so long, and it's only been a week,
1:23
Speaker 1: but I was away, you know, for the last few
1:24
Speaker 1: days of last week. We got a lot of kitchen
1:27
Speaker 1: up to do. How are you? Oh yeah, I missed you, Chad.
1:30
Speaker 1: And not only did I miss you from the show,
1:31
Speaker 1: I missed you because I did do two of those
1:33
Speaker 1: ad reads. Well. Number one, Listen, we truly appreciate our
1:36
Speaker 1: sponsors at FanDuel, and I look forward to everybody hearing
1:39
Speaker 1: my read for the FanDuel Sports Book later in the show.
1:42
Speaker 1: This is how it happens, my friend, slowly but surely. Look,
1:45
Speaker 1: we were just talking before we came on the air,
1:47
Speaker 1: how I was talking with a buddy about so many
1:51
Speaker 1: people coming into this space trying to be insiders, trying
1:56
Speaker 1: to parlay what they think they know about the NFL,
1:59
Speaker 1: what they think they know from having experience having played
2:02
Speaker 1: in the NFL or been executives or coaches in the NFL,
2:06
Speaker 1: translating that to betting whether they want to use it
2:08
Speaker 1: to become better as themselves, where they wanted to use
2:10
Speaker 1: it to become media experts who can translate everything to
2:13
Speaker 1: insider information that helps people get an edge. Um, and
2:18
Speaker 1: the delta between that and actual professional betters, of which
2:22
Speaker 1: you are one of them. Ah, It is actually phenomenal
2:27
Speaker 1: to me how much more professional betters know about what's
2:32
Speaker 1: happening in this world than anybody else. So give me
2:36
Speaker 1: your take. Aaron Rodgers arriving in Green Bay today, Deshaun Watson,
2:43
Speaker 1: who we had both made a lot of futures bets
2:45
Speaker 1: on teams. He could go to Washington football team Carolina. Um,
2:49
Speaker 1: those trade winds are back in the air. Where's your head?
2:52
Speaker 1: What are you thinking? Tell me about Aaron Rodgers? First? Um? Well,
2:56
Speaker 1: first I I gave you advice to your friend. Don't
3:00
Speaker 1: do it. It's it's a different muscle, it's completely different world. Um.
3:05
Speaker 1: I get why these people want to get in it, though.
3:07
Speaker 1: Like I told you, there's there's few cooler feelings in
3:10
Speaker 1: the world than when I knew the Jets were gonna
3:12
Speaker 1: upset and win against the Rams. I didn't know they're
3:14
Speaker 1: gonna win the way they did, but I just saw
3:17
Speaker 1: there was really great value in the number. And the
3:19
Speaker 1: following week when I came on the show on a
3:20
Speaker 1: Tuesday and I said yeah, the Jets are gonna win
3:22
Speaker 1: again now back to back weeks after they started your
3:25
Speaker 1: own fourteen. It's awesome, dude. It's like honestly really fun.
3:29
Speaker 1: And you experienced on the draft day getting those texts
3:31
Speaker 1: off of the night that Trey Lance was gonna the
3:33
Speaker 1: third pick overall and betting that and putting the word
3:38
Speaker 1: out there, and like just the reaction, like we talk
3:41
Speaker 1: all the time, is it's different. I'm getting used to it. Um,
3:47
Speaker 1: It's just different, especially the gameling world, where like people
3:49
Speaker 1: tell me information that's awful all the time, good or bad.
3:53
Speaker 1: You don't react to it in any way negative or positive.
3:56
Speaker 1: You just take the information you're given. You try to
3:58
Speaker 1: figure out what's real and what's not. Uh, It's definitely
4:02
Speaker 1: been different where like if I'm putting out there, like
4:05
Speaker 1: the day we put out that article about Trey Lance
4:07
Speaker 1: going third overall, not a single person in media was
4:11
Speaker 1: saying that everyone was still holding firm Adam schefter Ian rapport.
4:15
Speaker 1: All these high level of NFL people were saying Mac
4:18
Speaker 1: Jones is a third pick overall, and I knew that
4:20
Speaker 1: was a bold face live and it's it's definitely fun,
4:24
Speaker 1: but it's a lonely World where maybe ten people liked
4:27
Speaker 1: it when I put it out there, and I got
4:29
Speaker 1: fifty d m s of just cursing me out, saying
4:31
Speaker 1: who are you? I think I had like seven thousand
4:33
Speaker 1: followers at that time. They're like, how does the guy
4:35
Speaker 1: who was seven thousand followers no more than Adam Schefter
4:37
Speaker 1: or Chris Simms? Who are you? And it's just like,
4:40
Speaker 1: good point, I am a nobody. All I'm trying to
4:43
Speaker 1: do is help you not fall into this trap that
4:45
Speaker 1: the media is laying here. And we saw with Aaron
4:48
Speaker 1: Rodgers that was just again. I got a bunch of messages.
4:51
Speaker 1: It was one thirty am East Coast time, and my whole,
4:56
Speaker 1: my whole job, especially for people their fans of the show,
4:58
Speaker 1: is just for not people to step in it. It's
5:01
Speaker 1: it's one of those where like multiple people invest me,
5:02
Speaker 1: should I take the Vikings, the Vikings to win, the
5:04
Speaker 1: North's coming down? Should I take the Bears their numbers
5:07
Speaker 1: running down? Because everyone thought, for real Aaron Rodgers was
5:10
Speaker 1: gonna retire. I I still can't even say that right now.
5:13
Speaker 1: Stupid it sounds people really believed Aaron Rodgers was gonna
5:16
Speaker 1: retire out of nowhere in the end, very end of
5:19
Speaker 1: July before the training camp starts. So I went on there.
5:22
Speaker 1: I just said I just thought it was bys and
5:24
Speaker 1: that Aaron Rodgers was coming back. No, I didn't know anything.
5:28
Speaker 1: All I knew was that we talked all year. I mean,
5:30
Speaker 1: me and you. I We've sat here and we've had
5:32
Speaker 1: multiple conversations about what Aaron Rodgers was gonna do. Mathematically,
5:35
Speaker 1: it did not make any sense for him to leave
5:38
Speaker 1: that team and leave I think it was like forty
5:40
Speaker 1: million dollars on the table and just sit out the
5:42
Speaker 1: year because it was it was gonna do nothing for him.
5:44
Speaker 1: He's what thirty seven, thirty eight years old. It was
5:46
Speaker 1: just a really weird thing to think that he was
5:48
Speaker 1: gonna waste a year after he just won the m
5:50
Speaker 1: v P. So we saw what happened Chad, like we
5:54
Speaker 1: predict we bet it, We've been predicting it. He didn't
5:56
Speaker 1: go to Denver, he didn't go to all these teams.
5:58
Speaker 1: People kept saying. He just ended up back in Green
6:00
Speaker 1: Bay on a one year deal pretty much. And then
6:03
Speaker 1: the off season, like we said, we think he's gonna
6:05
Speaker 1: get traded. So it's definitely one of those where it's
6:08
Speaker 1: hard now that I am in media, so it's it's
6:10
Speaker 1: a little like I don't want to be bad mouthing media,
6:12
Speaker 1: but it's like, they gotta get clicks. It's a business.
6:15
Speaker 1: They need they need your clicks people. So I think
6:18
Speaker 1: that was just pure clickbait what happened on Saturday night.
6:21
Speaker 1: You are not and nobody sna You are a valued
6:27
Speaker 1: member of this podcast team. You are a friend to
6:32
Speaker 1: me and I am a friend to you, and that
6:34
Speaker 1: makes you somebody. I really appreciate it. But now I
6:39
Speaker 1: know you're down here about Watson. Uh it's it's it's
6:45
Speaker 1: again off the top. Will you start off? Okay, we
6:48
Speaker 1: get the guy is kind of a scumbag. It's a
6:52
Speaker 1: lot to take in to think this guy is gonna
6:53
Speaker 1: be the face of your franchise when he has ten
6:55
Speaker 1: women who have accused him that have going to the
6:57
Speaker 1: police now for what is gonna come down to be
7:00
Speaker 1: sexual assault. Now he hasn't been charged with any crime.
7:03
Speaker 1: He's still not on the commissioner list, which means he's
7:06
Speaker 1: got practice right now, he said Houston at their training camp,
7:10
Speaker 1: and if nothing changes, he could be their week one starter,
7:12
Speaker 1: especially if they don't trade him. So taking all the
7:16
Speaker 1: information and you have to look at all the teams
7:18
Speaker 1: with a different assets. So it's again we're sitting here
7:24
Speaker 1: late July. For the teams that have the most capital
7:27
Speaker 1: to move to get the Shawn Watson. The teams are
7:30
Speaker 1: gonna keep hearing are the Miami Dolphins and the Philadelphia Eagles. Now,
7:35
Speaker 1: the Eagles have three first round picks next year. I
7:37
Speaker 1: believe the Dolphins still have two next year, and then
7:40
Speaker 1: they obviously have two more of the following year I
7:42
Speaker 1: believe first round picks. So these are two teams that
7:44
Speaker 1: have tons of draft capital with both teams have quarterbacks
7:47
Speaker 1: that have tons of question marks. No one really believes
7:49
Speaker 1: in tour right now, normally believes in hurts. These are
7:52
Speaker 1: two teams where it's kind of a trial year for
7:55
Speaker 1: both these quarterbacks. So as we sit here in July,
7:58
Speaker 1: I can't see teams trading for him. I just think
8:00
Speaker 1: there's too much unknown right now with the legality. Where
8:04
Speaker 1: As an Eagles fan, I think we as a fan base,
8:06
Speaker 1: we would take them like we took Mike Vick where
8:08
Speaker 1: he did. It depends what kind of person or it's
8:11
Speaker 1: the most heinous thing the entire world, killing dogs and
8:14
Speaker 1: especially the rate the way you read about how he
8:15
Speaker 1: killed dogs like vic huge piece of ship. But as
8:19
Speaker 1: an Eagles fan, he served his time, he went to jail,
8:23
Speaker 1: we forgave him and as a community, I think people
8:26
Speaker 1: really got behind him and like that year he came
8:28
Speaker 1: in man like to this day that Miami, I mean,
8:31
Speaker 1: the Monday night game against Washington Football team is one
8:34
Speaker 1: of the best experiences of my life. Mike Vic threw
8:36
Speaker 1: for five touchdowns in the first half and it was
8:38
Speaker 1: just out of this world. So when I think of
8:40
Speaker 1: the Shawn Watson, a guy who is arguably a top
8:43
Speaker 1: five quarterback and he's maybe twenty seven years old. Yes, Chad,
8:47
Speaker 1: I want to give up the farm is an Eagles
8:49
Speaker 1: fan to get this guy. But from the human aspect,
8:52
Speaker 1: it's like I need to see this playout kind of
8:54
Speaker 1: in court, because it's it's just too much right now
8:57
Speaker 1: to think that they're just gonna give a contract to
8:59
Speaker 1: a guy that we don't know yet he could face
9:01
Speaker 1: jail time. That's it's just too much up in the air.
9:03
Speaker 1: So for me, it's I've been taking him in late
9:06
Speaker 1: round leagues in fantasy football, like you know, if I'm
9:08
Speaker 1: getting him in the eighteenth, nineteenth round. I've been taking
9:11
Speaker 1: Watson just in the simple fact, what if he only
9:13
Speaker 1: does miss six games and he comes back and does
9:15
Speaker 1: play this year for Houston. But for the trading aspect,
9:18
Speaker 1: I just can't see any team moving him for him yet.
9:20
Speaker 1: And I just don't know what the value is of
9:22
Speaker 1: a guy who has so much baggage right now. So essentially,
9:26
Speaker 1: let me put it in terms I can understand, which
9:28
Speaker 1: is me. Uh, for our Super Bowl futures, we kind
9:34
Speaker 1: of gotta lean into Sam Donald, Ryan Fitzpatrick, justin Herbert. No,
9:40
Speaker 1: we got burned, but it's it's again we didn't We
9:42
Speaker 1: didn't have this information in February. We were just playing
9:45
Speaker 1: the odds of this movement happening. Literally, did we know
9:48
Speaker 1: the Rams are gonna be the team that traded for
9:49
Speaker 1: a quarterback and bringing Stafford. So it's one of those
9:52
Speaker 1: we just had a swinging and miss. But what can
9:54
Speaker 1: you do? Chat when you get teams eight one one,
9:56
Speaker 1: that's usually how it goes, by the way, Like even
9:59
Speaker 1: with the Ams trading for Matthew Stafford, Like, I'm not
10:03
Speaker 1: a full buyer on the Rams. In fact, you and
10:06
Speaker 1: I have talked about this. I we are on opposite
10:08
Speaker 1: sides here. You know, I am definitely going to be
10:10
Speaker 1: a buyer on the Niners and you're definitely gonna be
10:12
Speaker 1: a buyer on the Rams. Well, people will see again,
10:14
Speaker 1: we have months I had to talk about it, but
10:17
Speaker 1: it's just a classic thing where the NFC is just
10:20
Speaker 1: very weak right now quarterbacks. The FC has Young Baker,
10:24
Speaker 1: young Josh Allen. They got my Homes, they got Lamar.
10:27
Speaker 1: Go look at the NFC. What the young talent NFC
10:29
Speaker 1: quarterback has. You have no talent? I mean, honestly, it
10:33
Speaker 1: is bad. That's why people are talking about how green
10:35
Speaker 1: Bay is not not the team like thought they were
10:37
Speaker 1: gonna be YadA, YadA, YadA. It's to me it's still
10:40
Speaker 1: green Bay and the Buccaneers and the two two by
10:42
Speaker 1: far best team's NFC. So for value wise, I get
10:45
Speaker 1: why people are on the Rams because they are the
10:47
Speaker 1: closest team. They have Stafford, who's arguably the third best
10:50
Speaker 1: quarterback to NFC, so it's tough. One correction, there is
10:54
Speaker 1: young talent at quarterback in the NFC. He goes by
10:58
Speaker 1: the name of Justin Fields. Ladies and gentlemen, last night, Uh,
11:03
Speaker 1: it's a vegan. You know that right, Chad like that, dude,
11:08
Speaker 1: I'm practically a food freak. I'm drinking my green tea
11:10
Speaker 1: Macha ice right now. I know you way about a
11:13
Speaker 1: buck twenty soaking wet. You would not be an NFL quarterback?
11:16
Speaker 1: What is this guy in for protein? Avocado? I did
11:19
Speaker 1: just have a physical the other day. I know exactly
11:21
Speaker 1: how tall I am, exactly how much I weigh, exactly
11:24
Speaker 1: what my blood count is. I'm I'm very pleased with
11:28
Speaker 1: my progress. And what's in a stone? You don't know?
11:33
Speaker 1: I thought you lived in England for a little while.
11:35
Speaker 1: What is it? Isn't it like ten pounds twenty pounds
11:38
Speaker 1: in between? It's like fourteen or twelve and I'm about
11:42
Speaker 1: I'm a little bit less than ten stone, my man. Um.
11:47
Speaker 1: But I will say this last night, and we're going
11:50
Speaker 1: to get to the baseball last night because because Colin
11:52
Speaker 1: and b J are are waiting patiently by and I'm
11:55
Speaker 1: sure they're sick of this. But I don't talk about NFL.
11:58
Speaker 1: But uh, last night, Uh, my wife and I are
12:01
Speaker 1: getting ready to go to bed. She's on her phone
12:04
Speaker 1: and I'm like, you're always on your phone. She goes,
12:06
Speaker 1: you're on your phone so much? More than me. I'm like,
12:08
Speaker 1: I'm not. I'm really not. Like you're on your phone
12:11
Speaker 1: every second we are together NonStop. She goes, let's check
12:15
Speaker 1: our daily averages. So we checked our daily averages and
12:17
Speaker 1: mine was higher, but not by much. And the point is, like,
12:20
Speaker 1: I am in an office all day and I have
12:21
Speaker 1: to be online and on my phone because I'm checking
12:24
Speaker 1: different social media outlets, how we're doing, how action is doing.
12:26
Speaker 1: Turns out the truth is all I'm doing is going
12:29
Speaker 1: on Chicago Bears TikTok and watching everything they put out
12:32
Speaker 1: about Justin Fields. I would. The other day they put
12:35
Speaker 1: out a really fun clips about um, it's been great
12:37
Speaker 1: David Montgomery talking to Matt Nagy and saying he's a
12:41
Speaker 1: Sunday player and he's miked up and he's having a
12:43
Speaker 1: good time. And then I'm watching Justin Fields talk about
12:46
Speaker 1: his secret talents. Whether the guy's vegan or not. He
12:49
Speaker 1: is built so well, he is so strong, He is
12:52
Speaker 1: a great young quarterback. He is going to bring the
12:55
Speaker 1: Chicago Bears into an atmosphere that has not been seen
12:59
Speaker 1: in years. One last thing, have you watched the hay
13:02
Speaker 1: Rookie on YouTube yet? No? I'll post it today on Twitter.
13:07
Speaker 1: You're gonna love it because it's it's basically Fields is
13:10
Speaker 1: in half of it. It's him and like three other guys.
13:12
Speaker 1: They're like do the hay rookie thing where they get
13:14
Speaker 1: like interviewed through the combine everything like that dude, he's
13:17
Speaker 1: the man. I love Fields though. He just seems like
13:19
Speaker 1: such a good dude. So again, it's so rare that
13:22
Speaker 1: that a team gets to make the right pick, like
13:25
Speaker 1: the exactly no brainer pick. But I talk every year,
13:27
Speaker 1: this is the best time of the year, Like we
13:29
Speaker 1: all have such high hopes and we're all so happy
13:31
Speaker 1: where it's like your team's gonna suck my team's gonna
13:34
Speaker 1: suck it. We we both know that. But right now,
13:36
Speaker 1: you know, we don't think that we truly believe are
13:39
Speaker 1: we're actually be good. So let's do it, Chad, Let's
13:41
Speaker 1: get one more thing. Here's how excited we are in
13:44
Speaker 1: my house about the Chicago Bear season. My son and I,
13:47
Speaker 1: my younger son and I took a father son trip
13:50
Speaker 1: to d C last week and we had an amazing time,
13:54
Speaker 1: amazing time. Uh. The last day, it was a beautiful
13:57
Speaker 1: day and like a bunch of the things we wanted
13:59
Speaker 1: to do didn't work out, and so we ended up
14:01
Speaker 1: going to the d C Zoo, which is a beautiful zoo,
14:04
Speaker 1: right and it was a beautiful day, so we're like,
14:05
Speaker 1: let's just walk around the zoo. We end up standing
14:08
Speaker 1: by the bear pit. The entire conversation where we're standing
14:10
Speaker 1: by the bear pit is about the Chicago Bears and
14:13
Speaker 1: we think their season is going to be. What do
14:16
Speaker 1: we think the team needs to do for Matt Nagey
14:18
Speaker 1: and Ryan Pace to keep their jobs? How soon do
14:20
Speaker 1: we think before justin fields only because we were standing
14:23
Speaker 1: next to the bear pit, did we have this conversation?
14:26
Speaker 1: You're addicted, totally addicted? All right, b J Colin there,
14:34
Speaker 1: I don't want to make this all Chicago, but I
14:36
Speaker 1: do have to start with the Chicago White Sox are
14:41
Speaker 1: one of the best teams in the American League. Tony
14:45
Speaker 1: Larusa is one of the worst managers in the American League. Colin.
14:50
Speaker 1: I'm gonna start with you as a Chicago in. Give
14:54
Speaker 1: me how how we all should be reconciling what's happening
14:59
Speaker 1: and how we should be thinking about the Chicago White
15:02
Speaker 1: Sox as a betting opportunity. Well, I think that if anything,
15:07
Speaker 1: this season for the White Sox has proved how little
15:11
Speaker 1: control a manager has over the successor failure of a team,
15:16
Speaker 1: at least over the course of a hundred and sixty
15:18
Speaker 1: two games. You know, when they get into the postseason,
15:21
Speaker 1: that's when I'm nervous because Larus's bullpen management, his roster decisions,
15:27
Speaker 1: when he pinched hits for guys is all a train wreck.
15:31
Speaker 1: It's been relitigated time and time again, but there's nothing
15:36
Speaker 1: anyone can do about it. And I'm terrified that it's
15:39
Speaker 1: going to cost them a key playoff game. You know,
15:42
Speaker 1: we're gonna write it out. You know, they've got an
15:44
Speaker 1: eight and a half game lead in the A L
15:46
Speaker 1: Central I think right now, Um luckily playing maybe the
15:50
Speaker 1: worst division in baseball. Um, they have the most talent,
15:55
Speaker 1: no question, gotta lloy him and has back last night,
15:57
Speaker 1: Luis Robert is on his way back, and and who
16:01
Speaker 1: who knows what they're gonna do with the deadline. Um,
16:04
Speaker 1: But yeah, I'm I'm nervous from the playoff perspective. Obviously,
16:09
Speaker 1: their odds to make the playoffs to win the AL
16:11
Speaker 1: Central Um have gotten to the point where where there's
16:14
Speaker 1: no value there. But as far as you know, futures
16:17
Speaker 1: with with Larus at the Helm, the playoffs are when
16:20
Speaker 1: they're really under the microscope, and the playoffs are where
16:23
Speaker 1: his shortcomings are really going to come out. So p
16:27
Speaker 1: J going off with college just this is a personal
16:29
Speaker 1: for me. I'm on in on Houston. I have a
16:31
Speaker 1: lot of money invest in Houston futures. I got them
16:33
Speaker 1: with one. Thanks listen to you guys obviously, like I
16:36
Speaker 1: don't know what the hell I was doing, but you
16:37
Speaker 1: guys talked about how Houston was kind of being this
16:40
Speaker 1: team slept on because everyone just hated him coming into
16:42
Speaker 1: this year. So I got them one. Who's the biggest threat?
16:46
Speaker 1: Is it really Boston? Because I I can't believe how
16:49
Speaker 1: good Boston is this year. Like, what team do you
16:51
Speaker 1: think in a L is actually a threat If the
16:53
Speaker 1: White Sox aren't that team, Yeah, I think it's probably
16:57
Speaker 1: either Boston or the White Sox. I mean when you
16:59
Speaker 1: look at Houston, their offense is incredible. I mean they're
17:01
Speaker 1: they hit both left and right handed, pitching well, they
17:03
Speaker 1: have a solid starting rotation. The only thing I'll say
17:06
Speaker 1: about Houston that worries me going to the postseason is
17:09
Speaker 1: their bullpen is not that great. They have basically two
17:12
Speaker 1: good guys. Presley has been a great closer. Uh Freley
17:16
Speaker 1: has been pretty good and even though I he gave
17:17
Speaker 1: the Grand Slam last night, but beyond that, it's actually
17:20
Speaker 1: not that great. Their bottom half major League Baseball and
17:23
Speaker 1: pretty much every metric you look at. So that is
17:26
Speaker 1: what would worry me about the Astros. But you know,
17:28
Speaker 1: their offense being this good without Bregman is pretty incredible
17:31
Speaker 1: to this point. Uh, as far as the Red Sox
17:34
Speaker 1: are concerned, I mean I am a Red Sox fan,
17:36
Speaker 1: so coming into the season, you know there was a
17:39
Speaker 1: lot of question marks their rotation and their bullpen, and
17:41
Speaker 1: rightfully so, because they were terrible in but so far
17:44
Speaker 1: to this point, uh, Evaldi and Guard Rodriguez have completely
17:49
Speaker 1: been They've just been amazing, and their bullpen is turned
17:51
Speaker 1: from one of the worst and major League Baseball and
17:53
Speaker 1: one of the best. I mean, Matt Barnes is one
17:54
Speaker 1: of the best closers now in baseball. And the thing
17:58
Speaker 1: about the Red Sox is what stayed true over the
18:00
Speaker 1: five years is their offense has been awesome. I they
18:04
Speaker 1: really don't have any weaknesses. They have positive run values
18:06
Speaker 1: against every single pitch type. They hit lefties in both Ridyes,
18:09
Speaker 1: well there two through five is just about as scary
18:11
Speaker 1: as it gets in baseball with Verdugo boguards Martinez endeavors.
18:16
Speaker 1: So you know, the White Sox obviously don't have very
18:20
Speaker 1: many weaknesses either, so I'd say it's either one of
18:22
Speaker 1: those two teams. But like Colin mentioned, when we get
18:25
Speaker 1: into the playoffs and we have Tony LaRussa at the helm,
18:28
Speaker 1: that could cost him a few games, where the Red
18:30
Speaker 1: Sox now have Alex Cooraback, who's one of the best
18:32
Speaker 1: managers in baseball. So yeah, I I have some question
18:36
Speaker 1: marks with the Astros bullpens, and I honestly think that
18:39
Speaker 1: right now the Red Sox are the best team in
18:41
Speaker 1: the ale. But we'll see how it all shakes out
18:43
Speaker 1: over the second half. It's worth noting that we do
18:46
Speaker 1: a show on at Action Network HQ every Monday night
18:50
Speaker 1: at seven pm Eastern called Payoff Pitch. We do a
18:54
Speaker 1: lot of preview shows. We've been doing them for, you know,
18:57
Speaker 1: since the pandemic in the middle of the pen Amic
19:00
Speaker 1: for golf, then we started doing them for NFL, and
19:03
Speaker 1: now we do them for NBA, or we have been
19:05
Speaker 1: doing it for n b A and Baseball will launch
19:09
Speaker 1: a college football one. Baseball is the best example of
19:14
Speaker 1: how these shows have evolved. It's got highlights, it's got
19:19
Speaker 1: great analysts in b. J. Zarrillo and Colin Wilson. It's
19:23
Speaker 1: got great dynamically updating info. I say all this to
19:28
Speaker 1: give it a plug. Watch Payoff Pitch seven pm Eastern
19:30
Speaker 1: on at Action Network hq UM. But also it's a
19:33
Speaker 1: great example of like good baseball inside baseball betting programming.
19:38
Speaker 1: Last night the White Sox lost to the Royals. Everybody
19:41
Speaker 1: on our panel was on the Royals to win that game. Uh.
19:46
Speaker 1: Great example right there of how this group analyzes baseball.
19:50
Speaker 1: Um Simon, you got him one? You got how much
19:56
Speaker 1: you better at each number? I did each, and then
19:59
Speaker 1: I did um a grand on Milwaukee fifty one, and
20:04
Speaker 1: they've they've gone way up again. I didn't know anything.
20:06
Speaker 1: I was listening to these guys. The best one I
20:08
Speaker 1: think I've been from Seawan was um Vladdie. He gave
20:12
Speaker 1: me Ladie. I have him for most home runs, most
20:15
Speaker 1: rb I s and then I miss clicked. Um. I
20:18
Speaker 1: was trying to do five hundred on uh Otani and
20:22
Speaker 1: I hit the dude on the padres what's his name for? Yeah, yeah,
20:29
Speaker 1: and he's killing it like that kid. I remember what
20:32
Speaker 1: was it like the three weeks in he like popped
20:34
Speaker 1: his shoulder out and they popped it back in. He's
20:36
Speaker 1: still he's like third home runs. It nothing makes sense anymore, Chad.
20:41
Speaker 1: So you did a five dollar like miss bet? Drunk? Yeah? Drunk? Yeah.
20:49
Speaker 1: We we had did the show and like I remember,
20:51
Speaker 1: I made a couple of bets and I had the
20:53
Speaker 1: itch because I hadn't done any bets in a little while,
20:56
Speaker 1: and I was like, you know what, let me let
20:57
Speaker 1: me see what else I can bet for, like this
20:59
Speaker 1: home run because I love home run props. It's just
21:02
Speaker 1: not that it's crazy random, but it really is like
21:05
Speaker 1: any given year, a guy who can just come out
21:07
Speaker 1: of nowhere, can just get hot and no joke, I
21:11
Speaker 1: think Lad he was fifty to one. Um, I'm gonna check.
21:14
Speaker 1: It was definitely on fan do I did it? Um,
21:17
Speaker 1: But to tease, I think he was thirty three to one.
21:19
Speaker 1: So again, it's crazy good odds for both those guys
21:23
Speaker 1: if if either of them come through. But I already
21:24
Speaker 1: know what's gonna happen with Tani is somethhow gonna win
21:26
Speaker 1: it all? But that's just that's just my luck. The
21:29
Speaker 1: one guy I wanted to bet, I didn't bet him
21:31
Speaker 1: because it's too good to be true. I, we've never
21:34
Speaker 1: seen anything like it, Like like we can talk about
21:36
Speaker 1: these guys. I I honestly people were giving him ship
21:39
Speaker 1: because he doesn't speak like the language. I think he
21:42
Speaker 1: speaks it pretty good. And when I was a kid,
21:44
Speaker 1: I think I heard Ken griff Jr. Speak one time
21:47
Speaker 1: from at my age seven till maybe eleven, Like I
21:50
Speaker 1: never heard Ken griff Jr. Speak. He was just kind
21:53
Speaker 1: of a shy, soft spoken guy. It was just Ken Griffy.
21:56
Speaker 1: He was just this cool dude with his hat backwards.
21:58
Speaker 1: He's a legend. Ohtani is the same thing, man, Like
22:02
Speaker 1: I literally am checking in Angels games. Who I never like.
22:05
Speaker 1: Mike Trout's great player. He's from South Jersey. I didn't
22:07
Speaker 1: really care about Mike Trout man, Like I wasn't. It wasn't.
22:10
Speaker 1: I had to stop, but I was doing to see
22:11
Speaker 1: Otani pitch and that It's just one of these things
22:14
Speaker 1: where he's like once in a generation. So to me,
22:17
Speaker 1: I think MLB has hit a goal. Mind here where
22:20
Speaker 1: this guy is so interesting that no joke, every time
22:24
Speaker 1: he's pitching. I watched for the last month. He's just
22:26
Speaker 1: one of these players where I am so obsessed with Now, Like,
22:29
Speaker 1: b J, what is your view on this guy? Like
22:31
Speaker 1: what is is he really going to play out this season?
22:33
Speaker 1: Is this really happy and guys gonna be able to
22:35
Speaker 1: pitch and hit fifty home runs? Yeah? I mean he's
22:38
Speaker 1: he's incredible. I mean if you look at all of
22:40
Speaker 1: his advanced metrics, like you know, I think we talked
22:42
Speaker 1: about for the home run Derby, like his barrel percentage,
22:44
Speaker 1: sweet spot percentage and all that. I mean, there are
22:46
Speaker 1: numbers we honestly have never even seen before. It's unbelievably insane,
22:51
Speaker 1: and you know, doing both of pitching and hitting, it's
22:54
Speaker 1: it's not that big of a benefit to the Angels,
22:56
Speaker 1: even though he has been really good on the mountain,
22:57
Speaker 1: I mean, pitched seven good things last night. But if
23:00
Speaker 1: he could only just focus on hitting, I think he
23:03
Speaker 1: could honestly be the best hitter over the next like
23:05
Speaker 1: five to ten years and possibly even threatened Barry Bond's
23:08
Speaker 1: home run record because just his numbers are just so
23:12
Speaker 1: unbelievably incredible and we've never even seen anything like it,
23:16
Speaker 1: And honestly, I think on the backs of that, I
23:19
Speaker 1: actually think there's a shot that the Angels will actually
23:21
Speaker 1: make the playoffs, even though they're sitting at five hundred
23:23
Speaker 1: right now, because Trout's gonna come back in August, and
23:27
Speaker 1: the offense beyond Otani and Trout has been pretty average,
23:30
Speaker 1: but they have four decent starting pitchers now they're looking
23:33
Speaker 1: to maybe sell to two of them at the deadline,
23:35
Speaker 1: So if that happens, and this is out the window.
23:37
Speaker 1: But and then when you look at their bullpen, you
23:40
Speaker 1: know their overall numbers are not good, but their top
23:42
Speaker 1: three guys uh in the front end of their bullpen
23:45
Speaker 1: all have X rays under four. Rossil Glaziers, their closers,
23:48
Speaker 1: the sixth best rated reliever in Major League Baseball. They're
23:52
Speaker 1: currently a hundred and twenty two one to win the
23:53
Speaker 1: a L West and their ten games back. I don't
23:55
Speaker 1: know what their odds are to win the or to
23:57
Speaker 1: make the playoffs right now, but if it's anything north
23:59
Speaker 1: of ten to one, I honestly think it's worth a
24:02
Speaker 1: bet because if Otani can continue to carry their offense
24:05
Speaker 1: and then Trout comes back like this could be a
24:07
Speaker 1: really good team in the a LS could get flipped
24:09
Speaker 1: on its head if the Astros start to fall back.
24:11
Speaker 1: So yeah, I think if Otani continues to do what
24:15
Speaker 1: he does, I think we'll never even see anything like
24:18
Speaker 1: this in our lifetime, with how good he is on
24:20
Speaker 1: both both on the mountain at place. My favorite thing
24:22
Speaker 1: will be that he cost three million dollars this year.
24:24
Speaker 1: He can't paid three million. I mean, he might end
24:28
Speaker 1: up making more money than Trout on his contract once
24:30
Speaker 1: it's all set and done. Uh, Colin would the Angels
24:37
Speaker 1: would Otani be better off if he was just playing
24:41
Speaker 1: one way? I don't think they would be better off
24:45
Speaker 1: because of the roster construction in Anaheim um, as BJ
24:49
Speaker 1: alluded to their pitching staff. I actually am am uh
24:53
Speaker 1: way less high on the Angels overall. You know, Otani's
24:56
Speaker 1: Otani's by far the best picture. UM, I don't trust
25:00
Speaker 1: um Alex Cobb Andrewhiny in big spots. They need Otani
25:06
Speaker 1: on the mound because of that roster construction. Um. The
25:09
Speaker 1: question of whether or not Tani would be more valuable
25:13
Speaker 1: kind of in a vacuum is a more interesting one. UM.
25:17
Speaker 1: I would lean know there as well. UM just because
25:21
Speaker 1: he's like, I don't see a scenario where he's actually
25:27
Speaker 1: a better hitter than he is right now if he
25:30
Speaker 1: weren't pitching, because of how good he is at hitting
25:33
Speaker 1: right now, the value he provides on both sides of
25:36
Speaker 1: the plate is too enormous. The roster construction has been
25:40
Speaker 1: all over the place for a number of years. You know,
25:42
Speaker 1: Mike Trout has made the playoffs once in his career,
25:45
Speaker 1: and it was his second season. I believe you know,
25:47
Speaker 1: it's a disservice to baseball and to Angels fans that
25:50
Speaker 1: Trout and now Otani are probably not going to make
25:53
Speaker 1: the playoffs for the foreseeable future. B J likes their
25:56
Speaker 1: their playoff odds. I just looked there plus seven fifty
26:00
Speaker 1: to make the playoffs right now. It's it's funny. I'm
26:02
Speaker 1: actually more more in on another a LS team as
26:06
Speaker 1: far as a long shot, and that's the Seattle Mariners
26:08
Speaker 1: as kind of the Cinderella Darling haven't made the playoffs
26:10
Speaker 1: in twenty years. But as to your question, I don't
26:12
Speaker 1: think the Angels would be better if Otani did one thing.
26:15
Speaker 1: What he's doing is just too remarkable and it's insane.
26:17
Speaker 1: I think I saw stat that after the All Star Game,
26:20
Speaker 1: they looked at the memorabilia sales for players and Otani
26:23
Speaker 1: was number one, and he had more than numbers two
26:25
Speaker 1: through ten combined. So he's great for baseball. He's great
26:29
Speaker 1: for the Angels, and you know I can't I can't
26:32
Speaker 1: get enough of them. And now a word from our
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Speaker 1: in West Virginia. All right, so let's move on to
28:54
Speaker 1: the National League. Please tell me what to do. I'm
28:57
Speaker 1: out on the Phillies. I watched the Phillies all the time.
28:59
Speaker 1: The Phillies are absolutely terrible. This is not a good
29:01
Speaker 1: team they're coaching. Feels like it's not good. The Bullpens horrible. Mets.
29:05
Speaker 1: I feel like they're held together by just a string.
29:08
Speaker 1: That's we call it the grom and he's not playing.
29:10
Speaker 1: Now what am I supposed to do? You should? I
29:12
Speaker 1: just take Atlanta like they're they're they're They feel like
29:14
Speaker 1: one of these teams that they just had bad luck
29:16
Speaker 1: the first half and now they're being undervalued in the
29:18
Speaker 1: second half. I like that. B J and I just
29:21
Speaker 1: simultaneously shook our heads and nodded when you said the Braves,
29:25
Speaker 1: I'm gonna jump to go first, because the Braves are
29:27
Speaker 1: one of my my future recommendations. They are kind of
29:31
Speaker 1: a mess. They don't have a Kuna for the rest
29:33
Speaker 1: of the season, but I still think that they probably
29:36
Speaker 1: have the most talent in this division. You know, when
29:38
Speaker 1: I when I'm looking at future value, one of the
29:39
Speaker 1: things I look at often is run differential. That's the
29:42
Speaker 1: best um predictor of future success, a lot like like
29:46
Speaker 1: other sports you know you're looking at In the NFL,
29:47
Speaker 1: I know you're looking at point scordon against and the
29:50
Speaker 1: Braves have the best run differential in net division even
29:53
Speaker 1: though they're two games under five hundred plus thirty eight.
29:55
Speaker 1: The Phillies are minus twenty two, the Mets are plus eleven.
29:58
Speaker 1: The Mets are probably gonna win in that division, but
30:01
Speaker 1: the Braves are are down I think plus seven hundred
30:03
Speaker 1: now to win the East, and and that number jumped
30:06
Speaker 1: out to me a little bit. Um. I really like
30:09
Speaker 1: Ian Anderson and Charlie Morton in the front of that rotation.
30:13
Speaker 1: There's a lot of shakiness there. I'm not gonna lie.
30:15
Speaker 1: I mean, there are two games under five hundred for
30:17
Speaker 1: a reason, but I just think they with with Freeman,
30:20
Speaker 1: with Alb's with the two pictures I mentioned. Um, I
30:23
Speaker 1: think there's great, great value right there going into August,
30:27
Speaker 1: and especially that's in a pretty aggressive front office. I
30:29
Speaker 1: wouldn't be surprised to see them make a flush. I
30:31
Speaker 1: know they made a kind of minor move for Jock
30:33
Speaker 1: Peterson a week or two ago. Um, I wouldn't be
30:36
Speaker 1: surprised to see them do something this week as well.
30:39
Speaker 1: I do find that the National League is so interesting
30:42
Speaker 1: because the INNO Central is inconsistent and kind of weak.
30:46
Speaker 1: And Seanzillo you mentioned earlier, Simon, he just freaking nailed
30:52
Speaker 1: the Brewers. He was all over the Brewers before the
30:55
Speaker 1: season began, and it was a little bit of a
30:57
Speaker 1: slow start, and now they are running away with at division.
31:00
Speaker 1: And like Christian Yellowish is a shell of the multi
31:06
Speaker 1: time m v P player he had been uh in
31:09
Speaker 1: years past. So if he actually starts playing up to
31:12
Speaker 1: his potential and what he had done in the past,
31:15
Speaker 1: forget about it. In the NL Central, Um, obviously the
31:19
Speaker 1: Cubs are gonna be sellers. And that's all we really
31:20
Speaker 1: need to say about that. Uh. And then the NL
31:23
Speaker 1: least we talked about kind of a weird division because
31:26
Speaker 1: the best team actually is missing its best player and
31:28
Speaker 1: still might take over the division. Then you look at
31:30
Speaker 1: the n O West, the n O West. Did anyone
31:34
Speaker 1: have the Giants with best record in the major leagues? Uh?
31:39
Speaker 1: Bj bj is raising his finger, he did. Uh. The
31:42
Speaker 1: Dodgers are one game out and the Padres, who a
31:46
Speaker 1: lot of people had going in the World Series, um
31:48
Speaker 1: and sort of being the up and coming team. They're
31:51
Speaker 1: in third place, but they got fifty eight wins. If
31:54
Speaker 1: you put any of these teams in the American League,
31:57
Speaker 1: they're probably better than everybody in the American League d J.
32:02
Speaker 1: So yeah, before the season, I was all over the
32:04
Speaker 1: Giants win total over. I think I have them one
32:07
Speaker 1: to win the NL West right now. And really, what
32:09
Speaker 1: it came down to the Giants last year, I think
32:11
Speaker 1: they missed playoffs by either one game or maybe half
32:13
Speaker 1: a game. Their offense was really good, they were top
32:15
Speaker 1: ten and pretty much every metric he looked at. They
32:17
Speaker 1: kept their entire roster together. The biggest issue was their bullpen.
32:21
Speaker 1: It was one of the worst in all of baseball.
32:22
Speaker 1: So what they did in the off season is they
32:24
Speaker 1: completely scrapped the whole thing. Only they only have two
32:27
Speaker 1: pitchers from last season in their bullpen this season and
32:29
Speaker 1: it's completely worked. I mean they've lowered their era ear
32:32
Speaker 1: A and next fit both by about a point, and
32:35
Speaker 1: then their offenses continued to hit incredibly well. And now
32:38
Speaker 1: when you go to the rotation, it's not a lot
32:40
Speaker 1: of guys that maybe you'd recognize if you haven't been
32:42
Speaker 1: watching baseball, but Kevin Gosman, Logan Webb and Alex would
32:45
Speaker 1: have been incredible. And honestly, what this Giants team feels
32:48
Speaker 1: like now that they're in first place in the NLS,
32:50
Speaker 1: it kind of feels like the Giants teams of the
32:51
Speaker 1: early two thousand tents where you look at them and
32:53
Speaker 1: you're like, it's not I don't see a huge star
32:56
Speaker 1: on the team, or they don't really do anything that
32:58
Speaker 1: you know, really jumps off the page, but they're just
33:00
Speaker 1: incredibly solid in all four phases of the game. So
33:03
Speaker 1: with their improved bullpen this season, I think this is
33:06
Speaker 1: an absolutely legit team. I think that they will continue
33:09
Speaker 1: to lead the n L West. If not, they'll get
33:11
Speaker 1: one of the wild card spots, because the two wild
33:13
Speaker 1: card spots are pretty much gonna go to the n
33:15
Speaker 1: L West, and it's not crazy to think that they
33:18
Speaker 1: could go on and win the World Series. I think
33:19
Speaker 1: their tend to one right now on Fandel. I don't
33:22
Speaker 1: know if there's much value in that number right now,
33:24
Speaker 1: but this is an absolute legit team with legit offense,
33:27
Speaker 1: a pretty good bullpen, and three legit starters. So I
33:30
Speaker 1: love the Giants to continue this to go on, and
33:32
Speaker 1: I think that they're gonna be a problem for both
33:34
Speaker 1: the Dodgers and the Padres. God, I hope Colin come
33:37
Speaker 1: badmouth them, because I can't stand that they're good again.
33:41
Speaker 1: It just anyone and w's a fan of baseball, you
33:43
Speaker 1: have to kind of hate San Francisco. They have the
33:45
Speaker 1: best ballpark, and they're never bad for more than five years.
33:48
Speaker 1: Like you just said, it wasn't that long ago till
33:50
Speaker 1: Linskin was just throwing heaters for them, and they're winning
33:52
Speaker 1: World Series and they had Madison bum Gardener and it's
33:54
Speaker 1: just never ending. I can't stand it. Can they just
33:57
Speaker 1: be bad for ten years? As a Phillies fan that
34:00
Speaker 1: hasn't relevant for ten years, I can't take it bad.
34:03
Speaker 1: How is it that for so long in the seventies
34:05
Speaker 1: and eighties, it was they were the most irrelevant team
34:09
Speaker 1: in the major leagues? You they were never discussed. It
34:11
Speaker 1: just happens to be before your time. But old people
34:14
Speaker 1: like me can remember when San Francisco was the most irrelevant. Okay,
34:19
Speaker 1: fifty years ago. Fifty years ago, San France had a
34:22
Speaker 1: bad Jed said they had a bad years ago. Yeah,
34:28
Speaker 1: good friend, God terrible. I I can't believe it's possible
34:32
Speaker 1: because our ex manager of the Phillies is there, and
34:34
Speaker 1: it's like, what is happening? Are they really going to
34:37
Speaker 1: beat out the Dodgers in San Diego? Because both the
34:40
Speaker 1: Dodgers San Diego, their their payrolls insane. Like you guys know,
34:43
Speaker 1: it's it's truly David versus Golia. So I would love
34:45
Speaker 1: to hear how do you view this division? Well, um,
34:49
Speaker 1: I'm staying the hell away from that division as far
34:53
Speaker 1: I do like the Giants, maybe not quite as much
34:55
Speaker 1: as b J. I do think the Dodgers overtake them
34:57
Speaker 1: and win that division at some point. But the interesting
35:00
Speaker 1: thing about the NL West, and I talked about this
35:02
Speaker 1: a little bit in the preseason, is that the playoff
35:06
Speaker 1: futures for that division scare the hell out of me,
35:08
Speaker 1: because they're gonna end up beating it up on each other.
35:11
Speaker 1: The two teams say, say it plays out how I
35:14
Speaker 1: think it is. The Dodgers win the division, the Giants
35:16
Speaker 1: and Padres win the wild Card, the Giants and Padres
35:19
Speaker 1: play a wild Card game together, the winner plays the Dodgers.
35:23
Speaker 1: So it's just like a gauntlet to get to the
35:25
Speaker 1: World Series. That's why, whoever you like, how to the
35:27
Speaker 1: Central or the East. You know, if you like an
35:30
Speaker 1: NL Pennant future or a World Series future out of
35:32
Speaker 1: the Braves and Mets, the Brewers, what have you, I
35:35
Speaker 1: think there's value there just because they're gonna play each
35:37
Speaker 1: other and then the winner is gonna get whoever comes
35:40
Speaker 1: out of this gauntlet match. In the NFL West, I
35:44
Speaker 1: still think it's going to be the Dodgers that emerge.
35:47
Speaker 1: But I just you know, looking at the paths to
35:49
Speaker 1: the Pennant, to the World Series, etcetera. I look at
35:53
Speaker 1: those other two divisions just because just because of how
35:57
Speaker 1: it's gonna go in the West. All Right, So b
35:59
Speaker 1: J said, is he doesn't see a ton of value
36:02
Speaker 1: in the Giants At ten to one, I argue, you're
36:06
Speaker 1: getting double digits on a team that you know may
36:08
Speaker 1: or may not even win its division, and that's not
36:11
Speaker 1: too bad. Uh, let's break it down in the last
36:16
Speaker 1: minute of this podcast, b J, give me your best
36:23
Speaker 1: value to win the Pennant in the National League and
36:27
Speaker 1: the American League, and your best value to win the
36:30
Speaker 1: World Series. Colin, same question for you. Yeah, I I
36:36
Speaker 1: think in the n L, I think it's still the
36:37
Speaker 1: Brewers right now. They're twelve to one, you know, beyond
36:40
Speaker 1: the Giants. And really with the Brewers, they have three
36:43
Speaker 1: of the best starting pitchers in the National League. That
36:45
Speaker 1: is gonna cause a lot of problems for all the
36:47
Speaker 1: other teams throughout the playoffs. Cordon Burns, Brandon Woodruff, and
36:51
Speaker 1: Freddie Perraulta all have any ERA in or two and
36:53
Speaker 1: a half. They have k for nine right over ten.
36:55
Speaker 1: I mean, these guys are incredible starting pitchers. And then
36:58
Speaker 1: they handed off to a bullpen that's still one of
37:00
Speaker 1: the best in baseball and has one of the best
37:01
Speaker 1: closers in baseball and Josh Hayter. Now, their offense hasn't
37:04
Speaker 1: really been up to part, but Christian Yellick was hurt
37:06
Speaker 1: for most of the first half of the season. They
37:08
Speaker 1: just traded for William Dames, so it's gonna be a
37:11
Speaker 1: really good team. That's gonna make the playoffs. They're probably
37:13
Speaker 1: gonna have, you know, maybe one or two maybe a
37:16
Speaker 1: home field advantage for at least one of the rounds.
37:19
Speaker 1: So getting them at twelve to one when some teams
37:21
Speaker 1: above them, you know, are still questioned, still, might you know,
37:24
Speaker 1: only make the NL wild card like the Padres of
37:26
Speaker 1: the Dodgers, I think twelve one is still great price
37:28
Speaker 1: on the Brewers to win the World Serious as far
37:31
Speaker 1: as the Pennant, I'm actually gonna go with the Phillies.
37:35
Speaker 1: I think the Phillies have the best value at to
37:38
Speaker 1: one to win the n L. And I'll tell you why.
37:40
Speaker 1: It's because they're really starting to put things together. Their
37:43
Speaker 1: offense is improving. I think their top ten and weighted
37:46
Speaker 1: on bass average over the last thirty days. Bryce Harper
37:50
Speaker 1: has been hitting over three d the last thirty days
37:52
Speaker 1: as well. Their bullpen has is due for some positive
37:56
Speaker 1: aggression over the second half of the season. I know
37:58
Speaker 1: on paper they look bad, but they're x fit is
38:00
Speaker 1: actually considerably lower than the actual e r A and
38:03
Speaker 1: they have a bona fide cy young candidate and Zach
38:05
Speaker 1: Wheeler and Flynn and Aaron Nola have been pretty good
38:08
Speaker 1: so They're only three and a half games out of
38:10
Speaker 1: the Mets. The Mets have a ton of injuries to
38:12
Speaker 1: deal with right now. If the Gram is out for
38:14
Speaker 1: an extended period time, Mets starting pitching isn't great. So
38:17
Speaker 1: the Phillies could absolutely overtake the Mets. And then when
38:19
Speaker 1: you get in the playoffs, you know anything can happen.
38:20
Speaker 1: And when you have that number one bona fide starter
38:22
Speaker 1: at least two decent starting pitchers after them, which is
38:25
Speaker 1: a lot of which a lot of these teams in
38:26
Speaker 1: the NIL can't say that they have. I think the
38:29
Speaker 1: Phillies are worth a shot one And if you go
38:32
Speaker 1: over to the a L, speaking of Vladimir Graham Jr.
38:35
Speaker 1: Like we did on the top, I think the Blue Jays,
38:37
Speaker 1: I think they're around twenty to one right now to
38:39
Speaker 1: win the a L. Their offense is incredible. I mean,
38:42
Speaker 1: it's what it's the best in the AL by far.
38:44
Speaker 1: They hit both right and left handed pitching ball. And
38:46
Speaker 1: I think I said this on Payoff Pitch, Uh, I
38:49
Speaker 1: think it was last week, but great show. That's right.
38:53
Speaker 1: They're incredible fastball hitting meat team. Their top five and
38:56
Speaker 1: run value against fastballs. And I went back and looked,
38:58
Speaker 1: and that's seven of the last eight World Series champions
39:01
Speaker 1: finished the season top five against fastball, so there is
39:04
Speaker 1: some merit to a team that hits fastball as well
39:06
Speaker 1: usually makes it deep in the playoffs. And they're starting
39:08
Speaker 1: pitching they need to go out and get one more arm,
39:10
Speaker 1: and their bullpen they need to get one more arm.
39:12
Speaker 1: But they're starting pitching has pretty much held up to
39:15
Speaker 1: this point. Their top four guys all of an X
39:16
Speaker 1: fit under four, so it hasn't been that bad. They
39:19
Speaker 1: aren't a tough division, but they're only four games back
39:22
Speaker 1: at the wild credit right now, and if they can
39:24
Speaker 1: just get in the in the playoffs, their offense could
39:27
Speaker 1: get hot and they could definitely win the AILE. So
39:30
Speaker 1: those are my three picks to uh win the World
39:33
Speaker 1: Blue Jays are the value play to win the Pennant,
39:36
Speaker 1: Phillies value play in the American League, Phillies value play
39:39
Speaker 1: in the National League, Brewers twelve to one to win
39:42
Speaker 1: it All from b J Coyl in your turn for
39:46
Speaker 1: the World Series, I'm gonna stick in the A at
39:48
Speaker 1: least and go with the one at least team that
39:50
Speaker 1: we haven't really talked about and nobody ever talks about
39:52
Speaker 1: and it's Tampa bay Um. You know, I'm a numbers
39:55
Speaker 1: guy just like b J. But sometimes there's just kind
39:58
Speaker 1: of a feel about a team. It's like the the
40:00
Speaker 1: Royals when they made the World Series back back years,
40:02
Speaker 1: where the numbers don't really make sense, but everything just
40:05
Speaker 1: kind of meshes well together. I was low on the
40:07
Speaker 1: race coming into the season. You know, they did their
40:09
Speaker 1: normal cheap thing at they traded Blake Snell, but they
40:13
Speaker 1: just have such a well oiled machine and they actually
40:16
Speaker 1: look like buyers. This year they added Nelson Cruz. There's
40:19
Speaker 1: talk about them being interested in guys like Max Scherzer
40:22
Speaker 1: and Chris Bryant, which sounds insane. But if they make
40:25
Speaker 1: a move like that, there're suddenly the favorites in the
40:26
Speaker 1: A at least the rays I see at fourteen to
40:29
Speaker 1: one to win the World Series. They have the best
40:31
Speaker 1: run differential in the Al East. Right now, it's a
40:33
Speaker 1: gauntlet with the Yankees and the Red Sox and the
40:37
Speaker 1: Blue Jays. Like BJ mentioned, but Kevin Cash, you know,
40:42
Speaker 1: there's jokes about Kevin Cash isn't really the in game
40:44
Speaker 1: manager of the front office, is the manager of of
40:46
Speaker 1: the rays Um. But whether that's true or not. You know,
40:49
Speaker 1: we saw last year what they can do when they
40:51
Speaker 1: get into the playoffs. And um, so I'm a big
40:54
Speaker 1: fan of the Rays at fourteen to one. UM. As
40:58
Speaker 1: far as Pennant winners go, UM, I'm with b J
41:01
Speaker 1: on the Phillies. UM, I would probably you know, maybe
41:04
Speaker 1: split a unit between them and the Braves. So I
41:05
Speaker 1: mentioned early because they're both twenty five to one. UM,
41:09
Speaker 1: I just think again talking about the NLST Gauntlet and
41:13
Speaker 1: whoever comes out of the East, it's going to have
41:15
Speaker 1: an easier path. I think the Brewers. Um, you know,
41:18
Speaker 1: they're down to plus five five for the Pennants, so
41:21
Speaker 1: I don't see as much value there in whoever comes
41:24
Speaker 1: out of the East, the Mets or four five, and
41:27
Speaker 1: then you've got the Phillies and Braves at to one,
41:29
Speaker 1: who were longer shots. So I really like that there.
41:32
Speaker 1: And in the American League, I'm gonna I'm gonna go
41:34
Speaker 1: with Blue Jay with b J. Um the Blue Jays, UM,
41:38
Speaker 1: I see them at thirteen to one. You mentioned twenty one.
41:40
Speaker 1: If you can find it at twenty two one, that's great.
41:41
Speaker 1: They they have the probably the most electric offense in
41:45
Speaker 1: the American League. It's them. The White Sox Astros kind
41:48
Speaker 1: of kind of coin fulled their Red Sox. Um. Robbie
41:51
Speaker 1: Ray has been a revelation. He seemed like an afterthought
41:54
Speaker 1: when Arizona got rid of him. He looks like, you know,
41:57
Speaker 1: a legitimate like top five Cy Young finisher. Probably Um
42:02
Speaker 1: Engine ru Um is a steady mid rotation guy. I
42:06
Speaker 1: want them to add some bullpen depth at the deadline.
42:09
Speaker 1: They have some serious bullpen question marks. But I do
42:11
Speaker 1: think there's value if you can find it in the
42:14
Speaker 1: late teens, maybe twenty one ish, so raise braves, Phillies,
42:18
Speaker 1: blue jays. Those are those are my value picks. I
42:21
Speaker 1: gave you one extra one and I will say one
42:23
Speaker 1: final thing. Um. We're talking about the Giants earlier. If
42:27
Speaker 1: the Graham does miss some serious time Kevin Goussman sitting
42:31
Speaker 1: there for n L Cy Young at about fifteen to one, UM,
42:33
Speaker 1: and if if the Graham miss is enough time that
42:35
Speaker 1: he's not going to hit you know, the innings threshold
42:37
Speaker 1: to qualify for any of these league leaders. Gaussman and
42:40
Speaker 1: the Brewers Duo Um are out there, and I like
42:43
Speaker 1: Gusman's number a lot, then bring it up. Because Chad
42:47
Speaker 1: actually we're not. We weren't gonna talk about n L
42:49
Speaker 1: m v P. It's it's it's staring at US boys
42:52
Speaker 1: two months left in the season. It's a two man race, like,
42:56
Speaker 1: why why not Betjuan Soto like these other guys who
42:58
Speaker 1: are four to one crazy odds? Is it not worth
43:02
Speaker 1: doing the next two months? Like these guys can't get hurt.
43:04
Speaker 1: We already see de Graham is hurt right now? Is
43:07
Speaker 1: it really a two man race? Yeah, I'm with you.
43:11
Speaker 1: I'm with you on Soto. Sorry, b J, I'm with
43:14
Speaker 1: you on Soto. You can see guys get hot for
43:16
Speaker 1: the final two months of the season. You saw yell
43:19
Speaker 1: At a few years ago in pictures, you saw Jake
43:21
Speaker 1: Arietta UM back in sixteen. Um. They just get hot
43:25
Speaker 1: at the right time, carry their team and and win it.
43:28
Speaker 1: The problem with Soto is that he's going to play
43:30
Speaker 1: for a team that doesn't make the playoffs. And you
43:32
Speaker 1: can put together full seams season numbers and win the
43:35
Speaker 1: MVP without making the playoffs. We've seen it out of
43:37
Speaker 1: Mike Trout three or four times. But if it's just
43:40
Speaker 1: a hot couple of months and it's at the end
43:42
Speaker 1: of the season, when your team's out of contention. It's
43:44
Speaker 1: a lot tougher to do. Yeah, I mean, if you're
43:48
Speaker 1: looking at a guy like you know what I would
43:50
Speaker 1: do is I'd go look and see, you know what,
43:51
Speaker 1: guys have a weighted on base average over four and
43:54
Speaker 1: can basically get hot over that second half of the season, because,
43:56
Speaker 1: like you said, we have no idea how long to
43:57
Speaker 1: Grim's gonna be out, and he could get injured again.
43:59
Speaker 1: He's been back in fourth all season long. I think
44:01
Speaker 1: Zarrillo early in the season put out Max Munsey at
44:03
Speaker 1: a hundred to one. I don't know what his odds
44:05
Speaker 1: are right now. He's been he's been the dodgers best
44:08
Speaker 1: hitter by far, and I think he's got like a
44:10
Speaker 1: four fifteen weighted on bass average. So if he gets
44:14
Speaker 1: incredibly hot and the Dodgers take over the Giants and
44:16
Speaker 1: win the NL West and get the number one seed
44:18
Speaker 1: in the National League and he's their number one guy,
44:20
Speaker 1: it's not crazy to think that he could hit the
44:22
Speaker 1: m v P at one. Right now, I'm doing I'm
44:25
Speaker 1: playing two hundred on it right now. Well, listen, that
44:29
Speaker 1: was as full a buffet of baseball you could say
44:35
Speaker 1: our bases were loaded the entire time. I'm so glad
44:38
Speaker 1: you're back job Silon. Our bases were loaded the entire time.
44:42
Speaker 1: That is the kind of media professionalis M you have
44:45
Speaker 1: walked into sign in for Simon Hunter, for b J. Cunningham,
44:50
Speaker 1: for Colin Whitchurch. I am Shad Milman and this has
44:53
Speaker 1: been the favorite from the Volume podcast Network. Come back
44:56
Speaker 1: on Thursday. Please rate us, subscribe in apple Pie Podcasting, Spotify,
45:01
Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcasts. Until next time, I love you, Yeah, yeah,