Latest / Closing Market Report / Jun 10 | Closing Market Report
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- cmr260610 The June 10th Closing Market Report covers agricultural market trends, crop disease management tools, and global weather impacts. Susan Stroud of NoBullAg.com notes that U.S. corn and soybean markets are facing downward pressure due to favorable June weather conditions, absent Chinese demand, and record South American crop yields, though biofuel tax credits provide some structural market support. University of Illinois plant pathologist Boris Camiletti highlights the Crop Protection Network, a collaborative online platform that equips farmers with predictive disease tracking and return-on-investment calculators to optimize fungicide applications for crops like corn and soybeans. Finally, meteorologist Drew Lerner details ongoing agricultural weather risks, emphasizing that heavy, out-of-season rains threaten Brazil's safrinha crop harvest, while frequent showers and cooler temperatures in the U.S. pose quality risks to the winter wheat harvest and exacerbate localized flooding in the Corn Belt. - Ag Markets with Susan Stroud, NoBullAg.com - The Crop Protection Network with Boris Camiletti - Ag Weather with Drew Lerner Todd Gleason: This is the Closing Market Report. It is the 10th day of June. I’m Extension’s Todd Gleason. The markets were a bit higher today. We’ll have more in just a moment with Susan Stroud. 00:14 Ag Markets with Susan Stroud, NoBullAg.com Todd Gleason: Susan Stroud is now here. She is with NoBull. Thank you very much for being with us at NoBullAg.com, Susan. We appreciate you taking some time with me today. Susan Stroud: Thank you. Thanks for having me. Todd Gleason: Give me your assessment of the corn and soybean markets as we move through the month of June, please. Susan Stroud: It has been a brutal start, to say the least. I think maybe finally today it seems like we are trying to find a bottom. We had mostly green on the screen for the first time in several days. The problem is that June historically is not necessarily the friendliest of months to row crops. A lot of the issue is that planting has progressed enough, conditions are okay to start with, and the market is realizing that weather for June does not look terribly threatening. Before you know it, we have passed the seasonal highs and the new crop is made. I think that is what the market has been struggling with. The other piece of it is the global conflict. Hopefully, it is coming to an end, or maybe there is a resolution on the horizon, although today it doesn’t necessarily feel like that. You also have to consider, especially for the corn market, Brazil and Argentina. Both countries have huge corn crops. Argentina should have a record corn crop and record exports. That presents quite the headwind for U.S. futures. Todd Gleason: When you look at the marketplace and think about where we are today—and how the soybean market has bounced, with corn following along to some extent—I suppose part of that is due to the turmoil in the Middle East and the possibility that the administration may turn to heavier involvement in Iran. How do you put that into context with what you think might be the lower end of this market? Susan Stroud: It is difficult. When you think about conflict, there are parallels between actual physical war and trade wars. You have the initial shock, and the market experiences wild swings trying to figure out where it needs to be given the chaos. Eventually, the chaos remains, but the market’s reaction to it slowly dials back. It almost becomes more of a hindrance than anything because it is impossible to trade back-and-forth rhetoric. Even though the market is desperately trying to inject a little risk premium back into things, all in all, the market is very tired of what is happening in the Middle East and is just trying to determine where we go from here. When you look at what agricultural commodities did today, or have done in the past several weeks, we have detached almost entirely from the energy story. Energy has been moving lower as we hopefully inch toward some sort of ceasefire. At the same time, commodities have faced the headwind of non-threatening weather, the realization that China is probably not returning to the table for old crop U.S. bean purchases, and the fact that it is mid-June and we do not have any new crop commitments from them on the books yet. A combination of factors has left the path of least resistance lower. Todd Gleason: Looking forward, because I know you follow the biofuels area very closely—SAF, biomass-based diesel fuel, renewable diesel, and ethanol—do you see that fundamentally changing the corn and soybean markets? Susan Stroud: Let’s talk corn first. The 45Z amendments that took effect at the beginning of 2026 were a big deal for corn ethanol margins. It really helps support that margin structure and encourages U.S. ethanol producers to continue producing at near maximum capacity. When you look at biomass-based diesels, 45Z provided tremendous support, especially compared to what we saw in 2025 with the original framework that penalized crop-based feedstocks. This year, that has changed quite a bit. Canola oil is back in the mix. Fuels produced from soybean oil—both biodiesel and renewable diesel—are getting two to three times the subsidy amount they received under the original framework. That provided a significant boost for feedstock demand to start 2026. Now we officially know the RVO for 2026 and 2027, which adds additional fundamental support because we need all the feedstocks we can get to meet those fuel obligations. Todd Gleason: I want to take time as we wrap up our discussion to look forward to the end of July. This is your third or fourth annual event held in St. Louis for the Agrinext Conference. It is a great conference for producers across the Midwest. Can you tell me a little bit about it? Susan Stroud: This year is a little different. It is presented not only by NoBull Ag but by Bloomberg as well. We have several key members of Bloomberg and Bloomberg Intelligence helping facilitate and moderate discussions. The theme is inflection points, policy, trade, and the forces reshaping agriculture. We will touch on the macro situation and how we are in a phase of deglobalization. One session I am excited about is “Feeding the Future,” which discusses global protein demand, changing human consumption patterns, and how that supports soybean meal demand. We will also discuss inputs and fertilizer. Sunny Wescott, Chief Meteorologist with the Department of Homeland Security and FEMA, is joining us to talk about El Niño. Brian Williams from Macquarie and Mike McGlone, a Senior Commodity Strategist with Bloomberg, will speak on navigating agriculture’s new reality and how to trade in these situations. We will end the day with Jacki Fatka from CoBank, Jason Miner, and myself discussing agriculture moving forward. Todd Gleason: It should be a fantastic lineup. If you want to know more about the conference, you can look up the Agrinext Conference or go to NoBullAg.com. Susan Stroud, thank you for being with us. Susan Stroud is with NoBullAg.com online. 09:11 The Crop Protection Network with Boris Camiletti Todd Gleason: Boris Camiletti now joins us. He is a plant pathologist in field crops here at the U of I. Thanks, Boris, for taking some time with us. As we move through the growing season, it is important for producers to know about an easy-to-use website called the Crop Protection Network. It allows them to track and understand when they should treat for a series of diseases. Can you tell me about it? Boris Camiletti: Yes, the Crop Protection Network is a website where plant pathologists from different states share information. We review articles and make everything available to farmers and agronomists interested in diseases, primarily in corn, soybeans, and wheat. We also have resources for cotton and alfalfa. We offer fact sheets about diseases that are reviewed every six years. We also have recently developed tools. For instance, the Crop Lookout allows you to see in real-time where diseases are reported county by county. We have tools to predict disease risk as well. You input your GPS location, and based on the weather, it provides a risk assessment for diseases like Southern Rust or Tar Spot in corn, and White Mold in soybeans. All the data we gather in Illinois goes into that network and is combined with data from other states, making the recommendations very robust. Todd Gleason: When you say they can evaluate the risk, does this involve a return on investment (ROI) calculator based on the price of the chemical being used? Boris Camiletti: We have two different tools. One evaluates the risk for a specific disease based on weather conditions to assist farmers with the timing of a fungicide application. The other is the ROI calculator. Based on predicted disease severity, fungicide price, application cost, and expected grain sale price, the calculator provides the financial benefit per acre of using a fungicide. Sometimes there is no return, making the application inconvenient. Todd Gleason: For applications, there are easy-to-use functions where you state your growing season, crop size, and growth stage to determine whether to spray. That was available for Tar Spot last year. Is the Southern Rust tool brand new? Boris Camiletti: Yes, we are constantly updating those tools. Southern Rust is still in a beta version being tested internally, but hopefully, it will be out and fully deployed to the public soon. Todd Gleason: It is important for folks to look it up. They can just Google “Crop Protection Network.” Boris Camiletti: Yes, just Google Crop Protection Network. You can go directly there, view the directory of plant pathologists and entomologists, and find tabs with free tools available for farmers. It supports our mission perfectly. Todd Gleason: Thank you much, Boris. Boris Camiletti is a plant pathologist here on the Urbana-Champaign campus of the University of Illinois. I’m Extension’s Todd Gleason. 14:05 Ag Weather with Drew Lerner Todd Gleason: Let’s turn our attention now to the weather forecast. Drew Lerner is here. He is with World Weather Incorporated in Kansas City. Drew, every month of the year there is a wheat crop being harvested somewhere on the planet. I want to talk about wheat, but let’s also cover the Corn Belt in the United States and the safrinha corn in Brazil. What should we be watching? Drew Lerner: Brazil is in the process of harvesting some of its early safrinha crops, both corn and cotton. However, Brazil is entering a very wet weather pattern right now. It is going to rain heavily through the first part of next week. We will take a short break, and then bring more rain in during the latter part of next week. Current model data suggests it will primarily impact the safrinha crop regions. The bottom line is there will be unusually high amounts of moisture for their dry season, with 1 to 3 inches of rain across areas from northern Rio Grande do Sul up to southern Mato Grosso and Minas Gerais. This will impact the safrinha corn, cotton, coffee, and sugarcane harvests. There will be quality issues raised for cotton in the open boll stage, and sugarcane may lose sucrose levels. Drying rates for coffee will drop as well. Todd Gleason: Is there concern for the over-wintering crops like wheat in Argentina? Drew Lerner: For Argentina right now, they are in very good shape. They had a decent rain event last Thursday through Saturday, and the wheat areas picked up significant moisture to support planting, emergence, and establishment. They are poised for a very good start. Being early in the planting season for crops like wheat and barley, this rain was ideal. Todd Gleason: Let’s move northward into Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. Wheat harvest is starting there, and they would like to stay dry. What about the soft red winter wheat regions in the Delta, southern Illinois, and Missouri? Drew Lerner: In Texas and Oklahoma, we are going to see showers and thunderstorms. None of those areas will remain completely dry over the next 7 to 10 days. The key will be temperatures. If it is warm enough, crops will dry quickly between rain events, which is critical during harvest. However, I am concerned about the frequency of the rainfall, which could lead to quality declines. Temperatures next week are expected to turn cooler than normal across the Plains and the Midwest. The frequency of rain combined with cooler temperatures will slow drying rates and increase the potential for wheat heads to stay wet longer, which can cause sprouting. We also need to monitor pockets of excessive rain in Missouri, east-central Illinois, and west-central Indiana for early-season frost impacts on immature crops. Todd Gleason: Is this cooler weather correlated with the 45-day cycle going back to November? Drew Lerner: That’s right, very good memory. It is that same cycle, and it has been incredibly consistent. The last occurrence was around May 7th. Over the next 10 days, we will see a cooler bias across the central U.S., but we will warm back up afterward. Todd Gleason: Anything for the Corn Belt that you want to touch on today? Drew Lerner: The primary issue in the Corn Belt is that we are having serious pockets of flooding. It is not impacting the bottom line for the whole country, but there is significant acreage underwater in central Missouri and other scattered pockets. The cooler, drier air coming next week will be essential for these areas before further rain arrives. Todd Gleason: Finally, what is the situation in the northern U.S. plains, Canada, and Europe? Drew Lerner: The northern U.S. plains and Canada are doing fairly well, though it has been a slow start, and Canada is behind the growth curve. France is very dry; topsoil and subsoil moisture is short, and it will be warmer than normal, adding stress to wheat and rapeseed. The former Soviet Union regions are mostly in decent shape, though a bit wet, so we will monitor them for wet weather diseases. Todd Gleason: Thank you much. I appreciate it. Have a great day. Drew Lerner: You too. Todd Gleason: Drew Lerner is with World Weather Incorporated in Kansas City. That wraps up this Wednesday edition of the Closing Market Report. You can find us online at WILLAg.org. I’m University of Illinois Extension’s Todd Gleason.