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Episode 49 - 5/22/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

• 0:19
  Hello and welcome to episode 49 of the All Systems Go Sports
• 0:25
  Betting podcast Powered by Rhythm.
• 0:28
  I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
• 0:34
  Happy Wednesday? We are halfway through our work
• 0:36
  week. We got another big day here in
• 0:38
  the arena. I got a six pack of sweats for
• 0:41
  you today, guys. Can't wait to break them down.
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  Covering both NBA and Major League Baseball.
• 0:45
  NBA We have the kickoff of the Western Conference finals
• 0:48
  Mavericks, T Wolves. We got a market move that aligns
• 0:51
  with a rhythm projection. So I'm excited to breakdown and
• 0:55
  sweat that game with the guys tonight.
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  And then also Big 5 pack of sweats in Major League Baseball
• 0:59
  including a bunch of short money line prices as well as a revenge
• 1:03
  angle. And we have a juice reel
• 1:05
  recommended bet that coincides with a sharp bet that I like as
• 1:09
  well. So hopefully you can have both
• 1:11
  Rhythm and Juice Reel to pace us and help us cash a couple bets
• 1:14
  for today. Now looking back to our last
• 1:17
  night, a good night 4 and 2 + 1.48 units.
• 1:21
  Your night may have been even a little bit better because
• 1:23
  there's a weird situation with the Orioles game where they were
• 1:26
  tied and then the game was rained out and they had to make
• 1:29
  it up and they replayed it, picking up where they left off
• 1:31
  at around noon today. So that ended up being a losing
• 1:34
  play on the Orioles. But check your house rules in
• 1:36
  your sports book. Some books may have avoided
• 1:38
  that. I'll count that as a loss.
• 1:40
  But still, it was a great night, 4 and 2 + 1.4 units.
• 1:44
  The top play that I love the most was the Boston Celtics over
• 1:48
  cashing for the team. Remember that was a great market
• 1:50
  move with a great juice reel edge.
• 1:52
  The market was moving on the total 220, we got it over 221
• 1:56
  1/2. Did you guys see where it closed
• 1:58
  223? So not only did we cash that
• 2:00
  over but we beat the closing line tells us that we are right
• 2:03
  there finger on the pulse of the betting market predicting the
• 2:06
  next move, getting that closing line value.
• 2:08
  But at the time, the over 221 1/2 was a great angle, not only
• 2:11
  because it was market movement to the over, but because rhythm
• 2:15
  who powers this pod and does a great job of doing so.
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  They predicted a 2223.9 final score, so we had that rhythm,
• 2:23
  confidence. They're projecting a higher
• 2:25
  scoring game and what a game it was.
• 2:26
  Not only did we cash her over as a Celtics fan, I was like, Oh no
• 2:31
  sweat, we're going to get this over, but can we actually win
• 2:33
  the game? I had no action on the side.
• 2:35
  I was happy to get the over, but man, Jalen Brown coming up
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  absolutely massive with a dagger corner three.
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  To me, it's as much the Celtics winning the game as it was
• 2:43
  Pacers losing it. Imagine if the Pacers cash that.
• 2:46
  I think on the money line they were.
• 2:48
  Let me just double check for you because that was a huge payout
• 2:51
  if they had won the game straight up like plus 350.
• 2:54
  But obviously they turn the ball over and I don't get why teams
• 2:57
  don't foul when you're up three. It makes absolutely no sense.
• 3:00
  Rick Carlisle, veteran guy. Veteran coach, makes no sense.
• 3:04
  But anyway, that's Indiana's problem.
• 3:06
  Celtics up one O but we got our over there and then good night
• 3:09
  Major League Baseball and actually this is funny the way
• 3:12
  sports betting works and the way baseball works because you
• 3:14
  remember on Monday we had terrible luck where both the
• 3:17
  Brewers and the Yankees had leads in the 9th and blew it and
• 3:20
  we lost. Well the luck went our way last
• 3:22
  night because we had the Cubs come back and win.
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  They were down late in the game and they were able to walk it
• 3:27
  off on an eco Horner little comebacker as well as the
• 3:31
  Brewers Christian Yelich with a massive massive 2 out triple in
• 3:35
  the 8th to win the game for the brew Crew And then the Guardians
• 3:38
  came through as well for the team which was great.
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  Only other loser aside from the Orioles was the Rays which we'll
• 3:44
  talk about them in a second because I'm I'm going back to
• 3:46
  the wall of the Rays out of out of spite and out of revenge.
• 3:49
  But either way guys nice night even with that Orioles weird you
• 3:52
  know delayed game and and restarted today a four and 2 +
• 3:55
  1.4 unit night. So let's see if we can keep it
• 3:57
  going and get a hot streak going here.
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  Now just like we started yesterday's POD, I want to start
• 4:02
  off today's POD with some NBA talk because we have the start
• 4:05
  of the Western Conference finals, Dallas Mavericks and
• 4:08
  Minnesota Timberwolves. Now, what are we seeing across
• 4:10
  the market here? Well, if you look at the side,
• 4:13
  we've seen a little movement toward the T Wolves.
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  Some books open as low as -4, They're up to basically -4, 1/2.
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  If you look at the bet splits for this game, you're getting
• 4:22
  around 60% bets, 70% money on Minnesota.
• 4:25
  So looks like a little movement on the money line.
• 4:28
  Minnesota is around -190. That's a little high for me.
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  See what I'm going to do. I'm going to go right back to
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  the well with the same thought process that we did that we used
• 4:36
  to cash. Last night's over Celtics and
• 4:39
  Pacers, and I'm going over, not over.
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  If you're in Boston, it's over. We don't pronounce our Oz.
• 4:45
  Even though I'm not really from Boston, I live close to Boston.
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  I'm from Western Mass. I never got really the Boston
• 4:50
  accent because we're more like in the boonies and the sticks
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  out in the Berkshires where I'm from.
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  But anyway, let's go over Mavericks and T Wolves tonight.
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  I'm going to go over two O 6 1/2.
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  Now this is important to get the two O 6 1/2 because some books
• 5:02
  are at two O 7. So if you haven't done it yet,
• 5:05
  make sure you have multiple outs, which means you're not
• 5:07
  just betting through one sports book.
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  I know it's easy and simple and maybe it's just you got the one
• 5:11
  app, you make it easy in your life.
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  No, you need multiple apps. And the good thing is they'll
• 5:15
  give you odds boost, sign up bonuses.
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  But you really want multiple apps so you can get the best
• 5:20
  numbers. Because if your book is only
• 5:22
  showing a two O 7, that means you got to go over two O 7.
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  But if you have multiple outs you can shop around, you can
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  find that two O 6 1/2 which is where I'm going.
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  So same thought processes last night.
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  Let's start with the betting market.
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  The market is screaming over here.
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  Mavericks and T Wolves. This game open with a total of
• 5:38
  205 1/2 and now we've seen this total get up to 206 1/2, even
• 5:42
  207. So just as we saw yesterday's
• 5:44
  total rise in the betting market, which again, remember
• 5:47
  the public isn't really going to move numbers.
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  It's wise guy money, respected money that has the odds makers
• 5:53
  forced to basically adjust the number.
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  Because when they notice they're taking in big money from
• 5:57
  respected winning betters, they respect that action.
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  They'll move it in that favor. So automatically have the line
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  rising up tells us smart money hit the over now bet split about
• 6:06
  70% bets in money. So both pro and Joe here
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  obviously the public does want to sweat in over.
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  I always get a little nervous playing overs because that is
• 6:14
  kind of the obvious bet. But I'm not going to lay off if
• 6:17
  it also includes smart money, which I think this one does.
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  So not only is the market moving up, but also, let's look at
• 6:23
  these teams here. They're not quite the offensive
• 6:25
  juggernauts that the Celtics and the Indiana Pacers are, but
• 6:28
  obviously that total was, you know, two 21223.
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  This one's only two O 5 1/2, two O 6, two O 7, so it's lower.
• 6:37
  But Dallas is #7 offensive efficiency.
• 6:39
  Dallas is number six in terms of pace, so they score a lot.
• 6:42
  They're pretty quick. Minnesota is #16 offensive
• 6:45
  efficiency now. Minnesota is a good defensive
• 6:47
  team, but if you recreate some of these box scores, that's one
• 6:50
  thing we did in last night's game with the Celtics and the
• 6:53
  Pacers. Remember, we were talking about
• 6:54
  how all those Celtics Pacers games during the regular season
• 6:57
  had, you know, massive combined scores into the two 50s, two 60s
• 7:01
  that gave us extra confidence to go over last night.
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  Well, same thing for tonight. If you look if you recreate some
• 7:07
  of these box scores, Dallas and Minnesota played four times
• 7:10
  during the regular season. Here are the totals 220 and the
• 7:13
  not totals but the combined points for all for all the four
• 7:16
  games 2/22/28, 2:23 and two O 8 so they averaged when they
• 7:22
  played each other during the regular season.
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  Combined points of 219.75 so if we are getting an over two O 6
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  1/2 that's risen and these teams have you know, flown over this
• 7:32
  total during the regular season. Boom.
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  We're starting to check off boxes for this over.
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  Also, I'm going to put in a little angle here with rest.
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  Obviously when you have tired legs, your front rim, your
• 7:42
  shots, you don't really have that energy.
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  When you're rested you're feeling fresh as lettuce.
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  You hopefully getting up and down the court, you got your
• 7:48
  legs, you're making your shots, not front rimming them both.
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  These teams are pretty well rested.
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  Minnesota hasn't played since the 19th of May, Denver hasn't
• 7:57
  played since the 18th of May. So got your legs, hopefully good
• 8:00
  to go. Also look at the referees for
• 8:03
  tonight's game. It's no Scott Foster, but we do
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  have Kevin Scott, Mark Davis and Mark Lindsay and two out of the
• 8:09
  three are really good over refs. If you look at Scott and Lindsay
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  in particular they're around 52 to 53% historically to the over.
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  So hopefully a lot of whistles get to the foul line, make your
• 8:19
  free throws stop the clock in and add on some points.
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  So we're checking off the box with refs then I wanted, you
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  know, I was curious about hey how do these you know lower
• 8:28
  totals tend to do Now if you look at in the postseason this
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  play offs when the total is 210 or less what I would call a low
• 8:35
  total, the over is 21 and 1558%. If you get that down to two O 8
• 8:41
  or less, the over is 60%. So what does that mean?
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  It means that when you have these lower end totals, they're
• 8:46
  low for a reason, but also they have been sailing over so that's
• 8:49
  another feather in the cap of playing it over.
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  And then the coup de grace, the cherry on top rhythm who does a
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  great job, A fantastic job I might add, of Powering this
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  podcast with their data, back picks and props and
• 9:00
  recommendations. I have a model here for rhythm
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  that is projecting two O 8.4. So if Rhythm is projecting two O
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  8.4, if they have that hits again we cash our over two O 6
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  1/2. So we have a rhythm edge.
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  We have a market move to the over, we have over refs we have
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  box scores screaming over. We have rested legs here.
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  Add it all up, I think we got a good opportunity here hopefully
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  to cash this over tonight. So I'm going Mavericks and T
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  Wolves over two O 6 1/2. Now over to Major League
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  Baseball. A lot of MLB sweats for today
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  including a lot of day sweats, but to be honest with you guys I
• 9:35
  like the night games a little bit more here.
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  So let's ride right through these.
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  I have five overall. Let's see if we can get three or
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  more. First one on the board.
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  Little bit of a late evolving play for me. 6:40 PM Eastern
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  Time. San Diego and Cincinnati.
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  We saw Cincinnati take the opener last night.
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  They won two to nothing as like a + 105 home dog for tonight's
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  rematch. San Diego is going with righty
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  Michael King on the year. He's three and four 4.31 ERA.
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  He'll be opposed by Nick Martinez, one and two, 4.23 ERA.
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  What have we seen across the market here?
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  Well, this was kind of a, you know, a game that I was
• 10:09
  monitoring and then it got steamed to San Diego and I said,
• 10:13
  hey, let's take a shot. Because if you look at the way
• 10:15
  this one has evolved, it opened around -120 San Diego and it
• 10:18
  pretty much stayed -120 all early morning, early afternoon
• 10:22
  and then around I would say like 1:00 Eastern Time, got hit with
• 10:26
  a lot of San Diego money. So game day steam when limits
• 10:29
  are raising big bets come in, hit San Diego.
• 10:31
  San Diego has now been steamed up -120 to -130.
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  I have a lot of system matches on the Padres favorite off a win
• 10:38
  versus opponent off a loss. That's 62% this year or the 6%
• 10:42
  ROI. Rd. favorites 58 percent, 3% ROI
• 10:47
  short raw or sorry Rd. favorite off a loss.
• 10:49
  So variation of the same system, that's 63% with a 10% ROI.
• 10:54
  And our Rd. favorite sweet spot, -130 or less.
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  That's 57% with a 6% R 6% ROI. So you're incorporating all
• 11:03
  variations of the road favorite and road favorite off a loss.
• 11:06
  Also, let's dig in a little bit to these starting pitchers.
• 11:09
  If you look at Michael King, he's been pretty good in the
• 11:11
  month of May 2.95 ERA and three starts.
• 11:14
  He's also been better on the road than at home.
• 11:17
  On the road, he's got a 3.31 ERA at home 5.82.
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  Now good for the Padres is that they're on the road tonight.
• 11:24
  Also get his day night splits. During the day he has a six
• 11:27
  point O 4 ERA at night 3 point O 9.
• 11:30
  It's a night game here. Then if you look at Nick
• 11:32
  Martinez on the other side for the Reds, he has a home ERA of
• 11:36
  5.48. On the road he's 2.35.
• 11:39
  So I think you can save, you know, Usually you assume, hey,
• 11:41
  you're going to be better at home than on the road, but it's
• 11:43
  not always the case. Some pitchers are better on the
• 11:46
  road. In this case, you have both
• 11:49
  pitchers better on the road, but only the road team tonight is
• 11:51
  San Diego, so that would match with King and with the Padres.
• 11:55
  Now I'm going to bank on the Padres offense.
• 11:56
  You know they were blanked yesterday, but it's kind of a
• 11:58
  tough spot because they played a double header the previous day,
• 12:00
  but they're hitting 256 with 51 homers and 229 runs scored this
• 12:05
  year. You look at the Cincinnati Reds,
• 12:08
  they're only hitting 216 with 43 homers and 197 runs scored.
• 12:13
  San Diego is getting around 70% of bets but 80% of dollars.
• 12:17
  So a good low bets, higher dollars bet split public, but
• 12:20
  again, Major League Baseball daily grind.
• 12:22
  You don't have a ton of public betting, but low bets, higher
• 12:24
  dollars, big money is on this. The San Diego Padres here with
• 12:29
  that line move and if you look at home Rd.
• 12:31
  Padres have been good on the road.
• 12:32
  They're 15 and 10 on the road since he is just 10 and 13 at
• 12:36
  home. So again, this is a game that I
• 12:38
  kind of had my eye on. I didn't put a ton of stock into
• 12:41
  it because the line really hadn't moved all day.
• 12:43
  And then boom, father's got hit with smart money and big steam
• 12:46
  early afternoon. So I'm going with that game day
• 12:48
  Steam. Give me San Diego shop round.
• 12:51
  I got the Padres at -130. Keep on cruising.
• 12:56
  Next game up here. Let's go to Pittsburgh,
• 12:58
  Pittsburgh at home against San Francisco.
• 13:00
  What a crazy game that was last night.
• 13:02
  I had no action on it, but if you noticed you had San Diego, I
• 13:05
  believe they had a six to one lead or they had a big lead in
• 13:08
  the 9th and they gave up like five runs and up losing that
• 13:11
  game was an epic, epic collapse. So if you had San Francisco last
• 13:15
  night, poor one out that was, that was a Backbreaker.
• 13:17
  But I'm going right back to the wall of Pittsburgh here for
• 13:20
  tonight. Pittsburgh at home against the
• 13:22
  Giants a 6:40 PM Eastern Time game now pitching match up.
• 13:26
  Here we have Blake Snell. Remember he held out for much of
• 13:29
  the year because that's what Scott Boris told him to do.
• 13:32
  But it kind of backfired because he got hurt and he's been bad.
• 13:35
  He's only made three starts O and 311.57 ERA.
• 13:39
  He's coming off the injured list to make a start here for today.
• 13:42
  They'll be opposed by Jared Jones for the Buckles who's been
• 13:45
  really good three and four 2.89 ERA.
• 13:48
  Now what are we seeing across the market here?
• 13:50
  Good sharp move to the Pirates. Pirates open this game very
• 13:54
  short favorite. Some books were as low as -110
• 13:56
  -, 115. Now they're up to -120 -, 125.
• 14:00
  So we have that 5/10 five or 10 cent steam indicator of big
• 14:05
  money going Pirates causing this line move in their favor.
• 14:07
  One thing like about Pirates in particular is basically the
• 14:10
  public is pretty much split. It's basically 5050 down the
• 14:14
  middle. And remember, 5050, a line
• 14:16
  shouldn't move at all. There's no reason to adjust the
• 14:18
  price if the tickets are split. But remember, tickets and money
• 14:22
  are different. You can have a lot of tickets on
• 14:24
  one side, but if they're all from casual average Joe bettors
• 14:27
  at Buffalo Wild Wings betting 5 bucks because yeah, I want them
• 14:30
  to win tonight. So I'm going to bet on them.
• 14:32
  No, no, no, no. That's a losing way to approach
• 14:34
  betting. If the bigger money is in your
• 14:37
  favor and the lines moving your favorite, that's where we want
• 14:39
  to get behind. We want to follow that smart
• 14:41
  money. Not just follow any money,
• 14:43
  follow the smart money, but basically 5050 bets.
• 14:46
  But almost 70% of money is on Pittsburgh which goes with that
• 14:50
  line move toward the Pirates. Now if you dig into these
• 14:53
  pictures, we all know Snell has struggled here, but Jones has
• 14:55
  been really good, especially in the month of May 2.37 ERA and
• 14:59
  three May starts at home. Jared Jones has a 1.8 OERA so
• 15:03
  hopefully continues to pitch well.
• 15:05
  Then checking off a couple other boxes here, we do have
• 15:08
  correlative betting value on Pittsburgh with a favorite low
• 15:11
  total total. This one is 7 1/2 that also
• 15:14
  match the system that I love when the total falls, basically
• 15:18
  take the favorite because some of these books were at 8 down to
• 15:21
  7 1/2 and that's what we have seen here.
• 15:23
  And when you see the favorite in a game where the total falls,
• 15:26
  that's 62% with the 5% ROI this season.
• 15:30
  Little cherry on top. Home plate umpire Tony Randazzo,
• 15:32
  he is 56% historically to the home team, non division favorite
• 15:37
  value of Pittsburgh, lack of familiarity benefiting quote UN
• 15:40
  quote the better team and San Fran has really struggled at
• 15:43
  home. They're just 8 and 16 on the
• 15:45
  road, so it was an epic comeback from the Pirates last night.
• 15:49
  Hopefully they can get to Snell. I'm going buckles tonight. 5050
• 15:53
  line move, sharp steam. Good home play.
• 15:55
  Dump San Fran. Bad on the road.
• 15:57
  Hopefully a big advantage. Jones over Snell.
• 15:59
  So give me the buckles. I got the Pirates at -125.
• 16:05
  Keep on cruising. I'm going to bang my head
• 16:07
  against the wall one last time with the Tampa Bay Rays.
• 16:10
  Yes, I'm a Red Sox fan. Yes, the last two nights I bet
• 16:14
  the Rays and yes, my favorite team wins the Red Sox and my bet
• 16:17
  loses with Tampa Bay. So I said, you know what?
• 16:20
  What's the what's the definition of insanity?
• 16:22
  Mr. Einstein used to say bang your head against the wall doing
• 16:25
  the same thing over and over expecting different results.
• 16:28
  But the Rays have been the smart money play last two games.
• 16:31
  They just have lost. I'm hoping that we can at least
• 16:33
  claw back a unit here for today. I'm going Tampa.
• 16:36
  I'm going down with the ship with the Tampa Bay Rays now
• 16:38
  pitching match up here for tonight.
• 16:40
  We have the Red Sox going with Brian Baio young righty who they
• 16:43
  gave a big contract to earlier this year, four and two 3.96
• 16:48
  ERA. Meanwhile the Rays they're going
• 16:50
  to go with Ryan Peppiot who was part of the deal the glass now
• 16:53
  deal I believe with the Dodgers. He's three and two 3.68 ERA.
• 16:57
  But once again we got sharp movement toward the Rays this
• 17:00
  game open with Tampa Bay listed around a -, 115 short home
• 17:04
  favorite. We've now seen Tampa Bay get
• 17:06
  steamed up to -130, so Big 15 Cent move in favor of the Rays.
• 17:11
  Now the Rays are only getting half the tickets but 60% of the
• 17:14
  money. So once again, a 5050 line move
• 17:17
  shouldn't move at all if the tickets are split.
• 17:19
  But big money looks to be on Tampa causing that line moving
• 17:21
  their favor. I got a lot of system matches on
• 17:24
  Tampa Bay. Favorite off a loss, first
• 17:26
  opponent off a win? 62 percent, 5% ROI.
• 17:29
  Favorite with Steam versus A-Team who missed the postseason
• 17:32
  the previous year? 65 percent, 6% ROI favorite with
• 17:37
  a total that falls 62 percent, 5% ROI.
• 17:40
  All of these systems are lighting up on Tampa Bay now.
• 17:44
  If you also look at Brian Baio, he has a 6.52 ERA and two May
• 17:49
  starts. He got knocked around pretty bad
• 17:51
  in his last start against the I think it was the Cardinals.
• 17:54
  He's given up seven runs and 9.2 innings pitched. 2.87 ERA at
• 17:58
  Fenway but on the road 4.79. So again, final game of the
• 18:02
  series. Red Sox have taken two out of
• 18:04
  three. Hopefully the Rays can avoid a
• 18:06
  sweep and get a win tonight. And this has really been you
• 18:09
  know, wash, rinse, repeat, you know, cut and paste each game.
• 18:12
  It's been Tampa short favorite each night.
• 18:15
  Last two nights getting steam and they've lost and haven't
• 18:17
  come through. Can you freaking show up
• 18:19
  tonight? Tampa Bay Rays can you get a
• 18:21
  win? I hate betting against my
• 18:23
  favorite team because well on the one hand whether you call it
• 18:26
  an emotional hedge or you know kind of whatever you want to
• 18:29
  call it, basically either your team wins or your bet wins.
• 18:33
  Well my team won last night but I'd rather my bet win.
• 18:36
  So let's see if we can get a Tampa Bay winner tonight with
• 18:38
  good steam and their favorite. I'm on the Rays at -130 keep on
• 18:43
  cruising. Another team that the other
• 18:44
  night LED us down the New York Yankees.
• 18:46
  I'm going back to the low of New York going Yankees tonight.
• 18:49
  Similar situation in the Red Sox Tampa series where the road team
• 18:53
  in this case Seattle has taken the first two games.
• 18:55
  Yankees looking to bounce back. Pitching match up for tonight
• 18:59
  Mariners. They got Bryce Miller on the
• 19:01
  bump three and four, three-point O 8 ERA.
• 19:04
  Yankees are going with lefty Nestor Cortez who's two and four
• 19:07
  3.56 ERA. What have we seen across the
• 19:10
  market here? Well good sharp steam on the
• 19:13
  Bronx Bombers. Yankees open this game around a
• 19:16
  -, 145 home favorite Yankees have now been steamed up to
• 19:19
  -160. Some looks even creeping up
• 19:22
  toward like -165 S one way movement with no buy back in
• 19:26
  favor of New York. Also you look at the Yankees,
• 19:29
  86% of bets, 90% of money. So you do have a little bit low
• 19:33
  bets, higher dollars, which is also always a good indicator of
• 19:36
  the smarter sharper wagers in your favor along with that big
• 19:39
  15 cent steam move. Now hopefully the Yankees bats
• 19:42
  come to play here. They've been kind of silence
• 19:44
  last couple nights against Seattle, but the Yankees overall
• 19:47
  have one of the best offenses in baseball.
• 19:49
  They're hitting 25669 homers, 240 runs scored.
• 19:53
  Mariners are hitting 229. 56 homers, 188 runs scored.
• 19:58
  The home play dump. Nick Lentz, little cherry on
• 20:00
  top. Never bet a game only because of
• 20:02
  an UMP. But Lentz is one of your best
• 20:04
  home play dumps for the home team.
• 20:06
  He's 59% to the home team. Historically.
• 20:10
  You look at the pitching match up in particular.
• 20:12
  Miller for Seattle. He has a 5.19 ERA and three May
• 20:15
  starts. He's given up ten runs and 17.1
• 20:18
  innings on the road. Four point O3 ERA at home 2.37.
• 20:23
  So he's actually been better at home.
• 20:25
  Unfortunately for him, but good for us as the Yankees.
• 20:27
  Better. He has been worse on the road.
• 20:30
  You look at Cortez, he's been really good in May 2.89 ERA and
• 20:34
  three starts. He's only given up six runs and
• 20:36
  18.2 innings pitched. He's got a 1.27 ERA at home.
• 20:40
  Seattle by the way, only hitting 228 against lefties.
• 20:43
  That's 21st. And MLB and the Yankees would
• 20:46
  also be that non division favorite.
• 20:48
  Lack of familiarity benefiting quote UN quote The better team
• 20:51
  and you have a correlative betting Yankees favorite.
• 20:53
  Low total favored -160 Total of eight.
• 20:56
  The fear amount of expected runs scored.
• 20:59
  More likely to be coming from that better team who's expected
• 21:01
  to win. So they let us down the other
• 21:03
  night. Can they get a win tonight?
• 21:05
  Yankees are due. Hopefully they can cash for us.
• 21:07
  I'm going Yankees got Yankees at -160 now.
• 21:12
  Final play of the night. Can you believe it?
• 21:14
  We're going with Oakland, baby. I actually really like Oakland
• 21:17
  last night. They're at home against
• 21:19
  Colorado. That a pretty good sharp line
• 21:20
  move and I was like, should I play it, should I not.
• 21:23
  I was leaning pretty hard. I said hey let's not force it.
• 21:26
  I end up not playing Oakland and then they got down I believe 4
• 21:28
  to one. I'm like oh glad I didn't play
• 21:30
  them and then I look and then they won five to four.
• 21:31
  I'm like, damn it, I should have played them.
• 21:33
  So sometimes that happens. But anyway, I ain't going to
• 21:36
  lose lose out on Oakland tonight I'm playing the A's Oakland A's.
• 21:40
  So the A's are at home against the Rockies pitching match up
• 21:43
  here tonight we have lefty Austin Gomber going for
• 21:46
  Colorado. One and two three-point O2 ERA.
• 21:50
  Meanwhile the A's will go with Mitch Spence 3 and two 3.9 OERA.
• 21:53
  What have we seen across the market here?
• 21:56
  Well, similar move to last night, but an even sharper line
• 21:58
  move. We've opened this game.
• 22:00
  Very short price here on Oakland at home, -120 -, 125.
• 22:04
  Now Oakland's up to -140. So good 10-15 cents Steam move.
• 22:09
  Even $0.20 Steam move at some shops in favor of Oakland.
• 22:13
  Oakland is taking in a big amount of sharp money and we
• 22:15
  know that again because another 5050 line move.
• 22:18
  If you look at the records of these teams, Oakland's 20 and 30
• 22:21
  Rockies are 15 and 32. Two bad teams.
• 22:24
  You know maybe just take the plus money Publix undecided
• 22:27
  5050. Yet the line is getting steamed
• 22:30
  toward the Oakland A's. Now the Oakland A's match a
• 22:33
  great system interleague favorite off a win that's 38 and
• 22:36
  2164% this year with a 9% ROI. So good match there on Oakland.
• 22:42
  Also, if you look at coral to betting favorite low total, you
• 22:47
  also look at interleague favorite.
• 22:49
  Lack of familiarity benefiting the better team fading Colorado.
• 22:53
  Do we just bet against the Rockies this year?
• 22:55
  32 and 1568 percent, 9% ROI. Also, Rocky's one of the worst
• 23:01
  Rd. teams in baseball. They're just six and 20 on the
• 23:04
  road. That's the second worst record
• 23:05
  behind or ahead of only the White Sox.
• 23:08
  Oakland's got the better bullpen team ERA of 3.69 versus 4.88.
• 23:13
  And the A's? They've only been favored 6
• 23:15
  times this year. They're five and one is a
• 23:17
  favorite. So good, sharp steam.
• 23:19
  Bunch of system matches. I'm going Oakland A's.
• 23:21
  I got the A's a little bit earlier today.
• 23:23
  I think I got them around -130 -, 135.
• 23:27
  Now they're as high as -140, but I'm still laying it with
• 23:29
  Oakland. Little cherry on top, though.
• 23:31
  With the A's, I popped open my Juice Reel app, which is a
• 23:35
  fantastic sports betting app for data-driven bettors who want to
• 23:39
  track their own bets, follow their plays, sink their sports
• 23:42
  books, get recommended bets, Arbitrage opportunity, sharp
• 23:45
  mush opportunities. But I went to Robo Jackson.
• 23:48
  Robo Jackson, who is our little AI bot who does a great job of
• 23:52
  combing over the data and coming up with his two favorite plays
• 23:55
  of the day based on what the market and the numbers are
• 23:57
  saying. And guess what?
• 23:59
  There was 1 Baseball bat. I pop it open Juice reel.
• 24:03
  Robo Jackson recommended Oakland, Oakland at -140.
• 24:07
  So the top AI bot is also Bigley on Oakland, and so are we.
• 24:12
  So let's go. A's got the A's at -140 So 5
• 24:16
  pack tonight. Can we get three or more Padres,
• 24:19
  Pirates, Rays, Yankees and the Oakland A's?
• 24:23
  That about does it for episode 49 of the All Systems Go Sports
• 24:26
  Betting Podcast? Now Reminder, if you enjoy this
• 24:29
  Podcast #1 Thank you for listening.
• 24:31
  Thank you for taking the time out of your day to pull up a
• 24:34
  chair to the virtual bar and talk some sharp contrarian
• 24:37
  betting opportunities each day with me in the arena.
• 24:39
  Secondly, can you help me to grow this podcast and can we
• 24:43
  grow it organically? Can you recommend it to a
• 24:45
  friend? Can you also do me a huge favor
• 24:49
  and give this podcast a five star review?
• 24:51
  It only take you 2 seconds, but if you're listening on Spotify
• 24:55
  or of course iTunes, give it a five star review.
• 24:57
  That really goes a long way to rise up the charts and gain more
• 25:00
  respect in the rankings, so I do appreciate that.
• 25:05
  Also I wanted to mention that I just added.
• 25:07
  It took me a while but I added the All Systems Go pod to
• 25:10
  YouTube. So I'm not a huge like nerd, you
• 25:13
  know? I say nerd in a in a good way.
• 25:15
  I wish I was more of a nerd sometimes but I don't really
• 25:17
  know a lot of the back end like like tech kind of things.
• 25:22
  So it took me a while to learn about an RSS feed I had to apply
• 25:25
  to YouTube. I basically just want to give
• 25:27
  people different options to listen to the pod.
• 25:29
  So we just got added to YouTube. So if you want to search all
• 25:32
  systems go podcast with Josh Applebaum.
• 25:35
  You can now listen on YouTube as well some other platform here to
• 25:38
  catch the pod. But if you enjoy the pod as well
• 25:42
  and you want to learn more about data-driven sports betting, then
• 25:46
  guess what? I wrote a book.
• 25:48
  Support the team, go buy my book.
• 25:50
  Let me know you appreciate the hard work that I put in grinding
• 25:52
  in the arena. And what you can do is just go
• 25:55
  to Amazon.com, type in the Everything Guide to Sports
• 25:58
  betting, pick up a copy for you or for a friend.
• 26:01
  It's got everything I've learned in the industry.
• 26:03
  How lines are set, how and why they move, how to read line
• 26:06
  movement, how to locate sharp action, how to place a bet in
• 26:08
  person or online, how to shop for the best line, how to set up
• 26:11
  a bankroll management plan. It's all included in the
• 26:14
  Everything Guide to Sports Betting.
• 26:15
  So pick one up and guess what? When I see at the book at the
• 26:19
  encore, which is sports book closest to me, guess what?
• 26:22
  I'm going to sign the book and I'm going to buy a beer.
• 26:26
  If you don't drink, I'll buy a ginger ale.
• 26:29
  But of course, guys, that about does it for the pod.
• 26:31
  Whether I see you at the encore, the aforementioned encore, or
• 26:35
  Plain Ridge Park Casino or MGM Springfield in my neck of the
• 26:38
  woods down at the Borgata in New Jersey.
• 26:42
  Or sweat and sharp contrarian plays out in the desert jumping
• 26:45
  in the stadium swim pool. When you catch a big bet going
• 26:47
  to the South Point where the sharpest betters get down and
• 26:51
  the lowest juice possible is found at the aforementioned
• 26:54
  South Point, wherever it may be, you're going to walk up to me.
• 26:56
  You're going to show me some nice tickets from last night.
• 26:59
  Some good winners. Celtics over Cubs.
• 27:03
  Brewers. Guardians.
• 27:05
  Guess what? First one's on me, next one's on
• 27:07
  you were going to post about the book, Sweat sharp.
• 27:08
  Conturion plays all night long. Lastly, have you signed up for
• 27:13
  your rhythm or Juice reel? Free trial yet?
• 27:15
  7 day free trial. They are great assets to
• 27:19
  data-driven sports bettors because both Juice reel and
• 27:22
  rhythm. It's not about opinion, it's not
• 27:24
  about, you know how you bet this 'cause you know, 'cause I think
• 27:27
  this will happen? No data, data, data.
• 27:30
  The quickly, the faster you basically learn to keep your
• 27:33
  bias at the door and bet based on numbers and not your heart.
• 27:36
  The quicker and faster you're going to be and the better
• 27:38
  you're going to be as a successful sports better.
• 27:41
  So if you haven't done it yet, I want you to sign up for Rhythm 7
• 27:44
  Day Free Trial and Juice Reel 7 Day Free Trial.
• 27:46
  All you got to do if you are listening on Spotify is click
• 27:49
  the bio of this podcast in the description.
• 27:51
  You should have some links in there you can use.
• 27:53
  You can also check my Twitter page at Josh under score
• 27:56
  Insights give me a follow. I have some links there as well
• 27:59
  for for the Juice reel and the Rhythm app signups, but that
• 28:04
  about does it everyone. My parting words as always, stay
• 28:07
  sharp, stay contrarian, Bet against the public, place
• 28:10
  yourself on the side of the house.
• 28:11
  Always be with the smart money, never against it.
• 28:13
  Will smart money win every time? Of course not.
• 28:16
  But guess what? We are playing a long game.
• 28:18
  Never forget that anything can happen in a one off.
• 28:21
  You get lucky, you get unlucky. But if you consistently stay
• 28:24
  true to the model long term against the public with the
• 28:27
  house, with the pros, flat bet. Avoid parlays.
• 28:30
  Get that closing line. Valley.
• 28:32
  If you can do that, and we can do that together, we're going to
• 28:34
  be successful sports bettors. So enjoy your Wednesday night,
• 28:37
  everyone. Another big NBA game.
• 28:39
  Of course we got baseball every day, which I love.
• 28:41
  We're going to come back tomorrow for big Thirsty
• 28:44
  Thursday episode 50. Can you believe it?
• 28:47
  I feel like just yesterday we launched this pod.
• 28:48
  Now we're up to 50 episodes. We're just flying by.
• 28:52
  Thank you all for tuning in. I'll be back at it tomorrow for
• 28:54
  episode 50 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting Podcast powered
• 28:58
  by Rhythm. Good luck everybody.
• 29:00
  Have a great night.