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Will home prices crash in 2025? · The Financial Exchange Show

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Speaker 2: Kicking off hour two of the Financial Exchange. Chuck, Paul
1:15
Speaker 2: and talker with you. We've got markets moving up today,
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Speaker 2: with the Dow up one hundred and seventy seven points,
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Speaker 2: the S and P's up twenty four, Na's neck up
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Speaker 2: one hundred and ninety five. So you've got equity markets
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Speaker 2: moving on up. Ten year Treasury, which was originally selling
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Speaker 2: off six basis points this morning, is now actually down
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Speaker 2: one to four point to one percent. We've got oil
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Speaker 2: today West Texas Intermediate down twelve cents a barrel to
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Speaker 2: sixty nine eighty two. The TRIPAA national average for gas
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Speaker 2: prices down another four tenths of ascent to three h
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Speaker 2: three and three tenths. We might get to three dollars
1:48
Speaker 2: by the end of the year. Also, you've got gold
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Speaker 2: today up ten dollars and ten cents. Now it's to
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Speaker 2: twenty six seventy eight. And that is what is moving
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Speaker 2: in markets today. Paul, We've got two pieces from market
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Speaker 2: Watch here I think it's market Watch, yes. The first
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Speaker 2: one is titled will mortgage rates fall below six percent
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Speaker 2: in twenty twenty five. Here's what experts say. The second
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Speaker 2: is much spicier. Will home prices crash in twenty twenty five?
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Speaker 2: Here's what experts say. Now, look, that's that's only one
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Speaker 2: level removed from like, will all of us die in
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Speaker 2: twenty twenty five? Here's what experts say. But let's start
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Speaker 2: with the tamer one. Here, will mortgage rates fall below
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Speaker 2: six percent in twenty twenty five? What do the experts say?
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Speaker 3: Paul huge caveat here that projecting interest rates?
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Speaker 2: I just want to know what the experts say.
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Speaker 3: Okay, the experts are saying within the mid sixes, that's
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Speaker 3: what the experts are saying. Whether you look at Fooring,
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Speaker 3: where they look at Fanny realtor dot com, there's six
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Speaker 3: three six ' four. We sit today close to around
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Speaker 3: seven percent. Six point one percent, I believe was the
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Speaker 3: low that we reached this year back in September. It
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Speaker 3: doesn't seem as if any of the quote unquote experts
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Speaker 3: out there are projecting a significant increase or decrease in
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Speaker 3: mortgage race. It seems like they will continue to stay
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Speaker 3: relatively status quo.
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Speaker 2: All right, Tucker, we don't have much on the prediction
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Speaker 2: wall these days?
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Speaker 4: Do we no? Pretty slim?
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Speaker 2: It feels like it's do you have anything interesting out there?
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Speaker 2: I mean, we're getting close to year end?
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Speaker 4: Is there anything I would have to get back to
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Speaker 4: you on that? You haven't even looked at it in
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Speaker 4: a while. We don't really do it special days. Been
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Speaker 4: a while, all right, Paul.
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Speaker 2: Here you go. I want you to tell me what
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Speaker 2: you think the lowest the thirty year fixed rate mortgage
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Speaker 2: will be next year is and what the highest because
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Speaker 2: I hate this, like, oh, here's what the year end
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Speaker 2: is gonna because it doesn't tell you anything about the path,
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Speaker 2: like the year end could be six ' five, but
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Speaker 2: you get down to three in as high as ten? Well, wow,
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Speaker 2: what a ride that was. I want you to tell
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Speaker 2: me what's the lowest rates go next year mortgage rates
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Speaker 2: thirty year fixed rate mortgage? And what's the highest you
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Speaker 2: think they go?
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Speaker 3: I'll go, uh five eight five in the low end,
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Speaker 3: and on the high end I will go.
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Speaker 2: Seven to one, okay, five eight five and seven to one.
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Speaker 2: For Paul, I am going to go, oh, this is
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Speaker 2: gonna be a fun one.
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Speaker 3: Are you gonna go prices right on me?
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Speaker 2: Five to two on the low end, seven to eight
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Speaker 2: on the high end, it's gonna be a wild year.
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Speaker 2: Oh boy, it's gonna be a wild year.
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Speaker 4: That's for twenty twenty five, the entire year.
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Speaker 3: Yes, So the winner of this will just be the differential.
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Speaker 2: On whoever's closest on average average, whoever has this the
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Speaker 2: smallest gap for both lowest and highest yep, okay, okay.
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Speaker 2: So for Paul, you need to have this thing betore.
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Speaker 2: For me, I gotta have some swings. Let's give some
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Speaker 2: context because it look, we can talk about this, you know,
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Speaker 2: and just give numbers, but context. Why do you think
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Speaker 2: the lowest we get is five eight five?
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Speaker 3: Because well, I wanted to create a little bit of
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Speaker 3: a band there. But if basically hedging bets, where if
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Speaker 3: for some reason it plays out that it's a little
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Speaker 3: tricky here. We're going to talk about the US tenure
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Speaker 3: Treasury is the bell weather when you're looking at the
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Speaker 3: thirty year fixed mortgage, right, Yeah. A lot of what
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Speaker 3: we talk about on a daily basis with the FED
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Speaker 3: is the shorter end of the curve when they're talking
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Speaker 3: about moving interest rates. So it's not pure correlation that
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Speaker 3: we're going to see here that if the FED is
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Speaker 3: to cut rates more significantly next year. That that automatically
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Speaker 3: means that there is movement in the tenure, which is
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Speaker 3: why this is so difficult to project. But I will
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Speaker 3: say there is a little bit of cause and effect,
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Speaker 3: and that's why I came in there at five eight
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Speaker 3: five on the low end with this idea that, hey,
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Speaker 3: perhaps inflation is on a very good place at that point,
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Speaker 3: and you would have to have the economy I think,
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Speaker 3: weakening a little bit, perhaps some of the labor markets
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Speaker 3: starts to weaken as a result of that, the FED
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Speaker 3: is a little bit more aggressive with some of their
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Speaker 3: rate cuts, and that's why we get to that five
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Speaker 3: eight five. The other end of the coin to explain
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Speaker 3: the seven I'm right forgetting my projection seven to one
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Speaker 3: on the higher end is this idea that we sit
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Speaker 3: relatively the same as where we are today in terms
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Speaker 3: of the interest rates, the tenure treasury doesn't move tremendously
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Speaker 3: and we don't go much higher. What I'm not projecting
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Speaker 3: in there is a significant run up in inflation, the
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Speaker 3: economy overheating, and perhaps that and perhaps some policy changes
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Speaker 3: that make it so that the US deficit or debt
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Speaker 3: becomes a bear concern as a result of that, the
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Speaker 3: tenure runs up.
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Speaker 2: So I think, as far as kind of where I
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Speaker 2: sit on this five to two, why do I think
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Speaker 2: it goes that low. I think there's gonna be some
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Speaker 2: kind of major recesstionary concern next year, and not that.
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Speaker 2: What I mean on this is we've been dodging these
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Speaker 2: on and off for the last two years, and I
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Speaker 2: think you get one that just might look a little
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Speaker 2: bit scarier. I'm not convinced that you actually go into
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Speaker 2: recession still, just because again there's no economic data right
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Speaker 2: now that's pointing towards it, and this has been a
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Speaker 2: really resilient economy for quite some time. But I think
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Speaker 2: you get some kind of recessionary concern. And the key
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Speaker 2: difference President Trump coming into office the scoreboard that he's
7:36
Speaker 2: going to use to try to again like judge his tenure.
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Speaker 2: He wants to get interest rates down and he wants
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Speaker 2: the stock market up, and so there is going to
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Speaker 2: be a ton of pressure on the FED if there
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Speaker 2: is recessionary fear for the FED to you know, cut
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Speaker 2: in a meaningful fashion, and that might move markets to
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Speaker 2: expect there's more coming than there otherwise would be. So
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Speaker 2: I think that That's why I go a little bit
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Speaker 2: further on that side. On the other side of things,
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Speaker 2: I think one thing that we're all just kind of
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Speaker 2: sleeping on. And it's hard to say that we're sleeping
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Speaker 2: on this even given the events of the last week
8:13
Speaker 2: where we covered an hour one what happened in South
8:17
Speaker 2: Korea yesterday? Which did anyone have South Korean coup attempt
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Speaker 2: on their bingo card for twenty twenty four?
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Speaker 1: No?
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Speaker 2: I didn't. Again, I have three friends in South Korea,
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Speaker 2: so I literally was like, guys, what is going on here?
8:35
Speaker 2: I don't know what South Korean politics are all about?
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Speaker 2: Fill me in on this. So we've had that going on.
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Speaker 2: You't even paying attention to what's been going on in
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Speaker 2: Syria over the last week or so. Syrian government is
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Speaker 2: on the run, like they are not quite being overrun yet,
8:53
Speaker 2: but you have resistance groups, which again I don't want
8:59
Speaker 2: to get into all of the this. I've spent quite
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Speaker 2: a bit of time on in the last week just
9:03
Speaker 2: trying to understand because there's like twelve different players in there,
9:07
Speaker 2: and every single major you know, country, whether it's the US, Turkey, Russia, China,
9:12
Speaker 2: they've all got their hands in this as well in
9:14
Speaker 2: terms of who they're supporting. But the Syrian government is
9:20
Speaker 2: in danger of being overrun and not being able to
9:23
Speaker 2: control the country anymore, and so you've got potential you know,
9:27
Speaker 2: Middle East, you know issues with what's going on there,
9:30
Speaker 2: coupled with Israel and Iran, that there's a lot there.
9:35
Speaker 2: It feels like we're still sleeping on geopolitical risk as
9:38
Speaker 2: a problem. And the reason why quite honestly, Look, if
9:43
Speaker 2: you bet on geopolitical risk hurting markets for the last decade,
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Speaker 2: you've been wrong. You'll get every major thing that's happened
9:51
Speaker 2: geopolitically in the last decade. And while there may have
9:53
Speaker 2: been some you know shakeouts for a month or two,
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Speaker 2: there was nothing meaningful that actually happened to markets as
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Speaker 2: a result of it. And so I think that we're
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Speaker 2: sleeping on that a little bit, and that has the
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Speaker 2: potential to create all kinds of disruptions. Again from a
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Speaker 2: supply of goods perspective, supply of services. I mean South
10:17
Speaker 2: Korea just as an example, if South Korea actually goes
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Speaker 2: into any kind of you know, major political crisis, South
10:26
Speaker 2: Korean economy is hugely important to the world. It's incredibly
10:30
Speaker 2: important and you like you. You can't have that just
10:34
Speaker 2: drop off and have everything be fine. So there's a
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Speaker 2: lot out there that I think we might be underpricing
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Speaker 2: as a risk to financial conditions and the potential there
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Speaker 2: is for higher yields because of e either A a
10:50
Speaker 2: rebound in inflation or b. Hey, people start to get
10:54
Speaker 2: nervous that, gee, maybe in general government debt isn't as
10:57
Speaker 2: safe as we thought it was, and maybe we don't
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Speaker 2: don't want to own as much of it, and so
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Speaker 2: maybe you get some kind of tail on that side too.
11:04
Speaker 2: So that's why I've got kind of a wide band
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Speaker 2: on potential mortgage rates here. I don't know what's going
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Speaker 2: to be right or not, but man, there's a lot
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Speaker 2: on the board right now that I don't think we're
11:17
Speaker 2: talking about just because everyone is so focused on, Hey,
11:22
Speaker 2: is there gonna be another tax cut? It there may
11:26
Speaker 2: there may not be, who knows, But there's a lot
11:29
Speaker 2: in play that is going on outside the US that
11:33
Speaker 2: eventually starts to matter here as well. Let's take a
11:38
Speaker 2: quick break. When we come back, we'll touch on the
11:41
Speaker 2: second one of those stories. Will home prices crash in
11:44
Speaker 2: twenty twenty five? Gosh, what a headline will also do
11:47
Speaker 2: some trivia right after this.
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Speaker 2: So we get this big headline from mark Watchwill home
13:52
Speaker 2: prices crash in twenty twenty five? I'll pay it off
13:54
Speaker 2: even before I ask Paul to do so. Uh, the
13:57
Speaker 2: answer is no. The experts don't think that they're going
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Speaker 2: to crash. In fact, Realtor dot Com things home prices
14:03
Speaker 2: will grow three points seven percent next year. Bright MLS
14:06
Speaker 2: thinks that they'll go up three point one, Fanny May
14:09
Speaker 2: thinks they'll grow three point six and the National Association
14:12
Speaker 2: of Realtors think they'll grow one point eight percent, So
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Speaker 2: slower growth than we've had to this point, but not
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Speaker 2: a crash nationally. Now. Here's what is interesting and what
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Speaker 2: I do think, you know, we need to pay attention to,
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Speaker 2: is this is a market right now that is very
14:33
Speaker 2: much hyper local in nature in terms of where home
14:38
Speaker 2: prices are actually moving and its specifically is is geared
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Speaker 2: towards Hey, what are you seeing in terms of local
14:47
Speaker 2: inventories that are all over the place quite honestly, in
14:51
Speaker 2: terms of you know where they are relative to twenty
14:55
Speaker 2: eighteen twenty nineteen. You've got parts of the country Austin
14:59
Speaker 2: tex just as an example, inventories now in Austin, Texas
15:02
Speaker 2: are above twenty nineteen levels, and so from the peak
15:08
Speaker 2: Austin Texas real estate prices are down thirteen percent. So
15:13
Speaker 2: in places where inventory has recovered, prices are coming down
15:16
Speaker 2: pretty meaningfully. In places like the northeast where, hey, Connecticut
15:23
Speaker 2: still has like twenty five percent of pre pandemic inventory,
15:26
Speaker 2: they're not coming down. Massachusetts, May and in New Hampshire all
15:30
Speaker 2: somewhere around fifty to seventy percent pre pandemic inventory. They're
15:33
Speaker 2: not coming down. Vermont I think is like forty five
15:36
Speaker 2: percent or fifty percent not coming down. But you look
15:39
Speaker 2: at some of these other numbers here, put To Gore
15:42
Speaker 2: to Florida prices down eleven percent from the peak. Cape
15:44
Speaker 2: Cora Fort Myers down seven point eight, Sarasota Bradenton down
15:48
Speaker 2: four point three, Okala down four point three, Vero Beach,
15:52
Speaker 2: Florida down three point three. So the places where inventory
15:56
Speaker 2: has come back, We've talked a lot about this in
15:58
Speaker 2: recent months, where we're seeing, hey, people will move down
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Speaker 2: to Florida in twenty twenty. Now we're seeing these giant
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Speaker 2: increases in their home insurance costs and things like that,
16:09
Speaker 2: or just getting fed up with dealing with hurricanes. The
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Speaker 2: inventory is being listed and prices are coming down in
16:15
Speaker 2: order to move those properties.
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Speaker 3: And there was a ton of overbuilding during that period
16:18
Speaker 3: of time because there was this max exodus of people
16:21
Speaker 3: moving down there. I would imagine, I don't know if
16:23
Speaker 3: you have that's national data in front of you. There
16:25
Speaker 3: was feet with Phoenix and Boise, Idaho. Did they see
16:29
Speaker 3: any decreases if that is in fact, national, I.
16:31
Speaker 2: Only have the top fifteen, or rather the worst fifteen,
16:34
Speaker 2: so I can dig around and try to get it
16:36
Speaker 2: for you, but I don't have that.
16:37
Speaker 3: They weren't in the top fifteen.
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Speaker 2: Okay, now the worst fifteen, so worst performing in terms
16:42
Speaker 2: of change from the peak. So this is not last year,
16:44
Speaker 2: but this is from the peak. At home prices is
16:48
Speaker 2: Austin down thirteen percent, putting Order down eleven, Cape Coral
16:52
Speaker 2: down seven point eight. Lake Charles, Louisiana down six ' eight,
16:55
Speaker 2: Sarasota Bradenton for to three, Okalla, New Orleans down three
16:59
Speaker 2: to five, Beach down three to three, Florida, Watsonville, California
17:03
Speaker 2: down three to one, Killing Texas down three, The Villages,
17:07
Speaker 2: Florida down to nine, San Antonio, Texas down to nine,
17:11
Speaker 2: winter Haven, Florida down to seven, Rocky Mount, North Carolina
17:15
Speaker 2: down to six, and Destined Florida down to five.
17:18
Speaker 3: So mostly Florida, Texas.
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Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, that's that's where the bulk of it's happening.
17:22
Speaker 2: So nationally you just don't have inventory levels there. So
17:26
Speaker 2: the idea that nationally you're gonna see home prices crash
17:30
Speaker 2: it's kind of hard to get. So no, it's it's
17:35
Speaker 2: really hard to get there. Are you going to see
17:39
Speaker 2: more areas that are now seeing higher inventories potentially struggling
17:43
Speaker 2: with pricing in the next year. Yeah, I wouldn't be
17:46
Speaker 2: surprised if you see, you know, more markets that are
17:49
Speaker 2: seeing mid single digits or even low double digit declines
17:52
Speaker 2: in pricing because the inventory is out there, and just
17:55
Speaker 2: talking with people that are listening, they're like, yeah, I've
17:57
Speaker 2: cut prices twice and i haven't been able to sell yet.
18:00
Speaker 2: This is where I think we're We're going for some
18:02
Speaker 2: of those areas, most notably Florida and Texas right now,
18:05
Speaker 2: So we'll see where it develops, but nationally seems like
18:09
Speaker 2: kind of a tough put to get there. Certainly, taking
18:13
Speaker 2: a look at markets as we head towards the bottom
18:16
Speaker 2: of the hour, we've got the Dow currently have two
18:22
Speaker 2: hundred and fifty seven points, now over half percent, SP's
18:26
Speaker 2: of twenty five points, Nasdaq up one hundred and eighty one,
18:28
Speaker 2: so Tech kind of leading the way for the last
18:30
Speaker 2: couple of days here after not really having much movement
18:33
Speaker 2: and being one of the worst performing sectors for the
18:35
Speaker 2: last five months. Ten year Treasury is now down two
18:38
Speaker 2: point four basis points. We're back under four two. We're
18:40
Speaker 2: done to four point one to nine to seven on
18:42
Speaker 2: the ten year treasury. We've got Oil West Texas Intermediate
18:46
Speaker 2: continuing to slide down another thirty nine cents a barrow
18:49
Speaker 2: to sixty nine to fifty five, and Gold which is
18:53
Speaker 2: up about twelve dollars early in the day now ten
18:55
Speaker 2: dollars and forty cents at twenty six, seventy eight and
19:00
Speaker 2: thirty cents. So overall, equities continuing to move up. Bonnield's
19:03
Speaker 2: continuing to move down a little bit, but on the
19:06
Speaker 2: equity side a little bit concentrated in those tech companies.
19:11
Speaker 2: We're gonna take a quick break here, but when we
19:14
Speaker 2: come back, we're going to talk about another tech company.
19:17
Speaker 2: This one's Salesforce. They reported earnings after the bell yesterday.
19:22
Speaker 2: We'll tell you how they did.
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20:28
Speaker 4: Exchange Show t shirt. Congrats to Jen and we play
20:31
Speaker 4: trivia every day here on the Financial Exchange. See complete
20:35
Speaker 4: contest rules at Financial Exchange Show dot com.
20:39
Speaker 2: Paul, what did we see from Salesforce during their earnings
20:43
Speaker 2: report yesterday? Chuck?
20:45
Speaker 3: We had a nice quarter here for Salesforce, as they
20:47
Speaker 3: reported a eight point three percent increase on sales for
20:51
Speaker 3: the period that ended on October thirty first, coming in
20:54
Speaker 3: at nine point four to four billion. That was above
20:57
Speaker 3: analyst expectations of nine point five three to five billion,
21:01
Speaker 3: and largely the reason why the stock is up about
21:04
Speaker 3: nine percent today in the first couple hours of trading
21:07
Speaker 3: here is in part because of some of the numbers
21:10
Speaker 3: that came out of this quarterly earnings report, but also
21:14
Speaker 3: the optimism around some of Salesforce AI products where basically
21:19
Speaker 3: they are going to be unveiling and continuing to sell
21:22
Speaker 3: out what is called Agent Force, slightly different from Salesforce,
21:27
Speaker 3: but basically the agent tools that they offer on their
21:30
Speaker 3: customer relationship management systems. They are able to complete tasks
21:35
Speaker 3: related to customer support or sales development without any type
21:39
Speaker 3: of human supervisions. So an example of potentially AI being
21:43
Speaker 3: used to speed up productivity and replacing what something that
21:48
Speaker 3: may have been before a human manual task that could
21:51
Speaker 3: be automated through the use of AI. So that has
21:54
Speaker 3: been truly some of the optimism regarding this recent release.
21:59
Speaker 3: Operating margin since came in pretty well. Also, Salesforce has
22:02
Speaker 3: had a crazy year. Their stock was down at two
22:05
Speaker 3: hundred and eighteen dollars a share on May thirtieth, and
22:08
Speaker 3: today we sit here on December fourth, the stock is
22:11
Speaker 3: at three hundred and sixty dollars a share, a fifty
22:13
Speaker 3: percent jump since then. Because back in May they had
22:16
Speaker 3: said that they were going to see some of the
22:17
Speaker 3: slowest sales growth that they've seen in their history.
22:21
Speaker 2: Paul, how long do you think it'll be until I
22:23
Speaker 2: can be replaced with AI?
22:28
Speaker 3: Irreplaceable?
22:30
Speaker 2: No one's irreplaceable. Beyonce told me.
22:32
Speaker 3: That that's true to Left to life.
22:34
Speaker 2: So I think The interesting thing on this is I look,
22:39
Speaker 2: I'm someone who I'm fascinated by where AI can take
22:44
Speaker 2: us because I think as scary as it can be
22:48
Speaker 2: to be like, oh, like it's going to replace like
22:50
Speaker 2: all of our ability to work, I view it as
22:53
Speaker 2: simply another tool that we can leverage to be able
22:57
Speaker 2: to do more. Like we didn't go out and say, hey,
22:59
Speaker 2: you know what, we're going to not allow construction workers
23:05
Speaker 2: to use power tools because then we're gonna need fewer
23:07
Speaker 2: construction workers like that. That's just that that would be dumb,
23:10
Speaker 2: like work smarter, not harder. Likewise, with white collar workers,
23:15
Speaker 2: are we gonna say, hey, don't use AI, Like We're
23:18
Speaker 2: not gonna use AI because it's gonna get rid of jobs? No,
23:21
Speaker 2: like that, There's always more work to be done. And
23:25
Speaker 2: I think that this is something where when I'm trying
23:27
Speaker 2: to reconcile here, is that the potential upside of hey,
23:30
Speaker 2: how much more can we do with AI with the
23:34
Speaker 2: fact that, as someone who does use AI on pretty
23:38
Speaker 2: close to a daily basis right now, it still makes
23:42
Speaker 2: some really bad mistakes really frequently, and and stuff that
23:47
Speaker 2: is just dumb, like artificial unintelligence. We did the one
23:52
Speaker 2: where I was googling something live on air. I was
23:55
Speaker 2: duck duck going something, and I was like, oh, like,
23:58
Speaker 2: what's bigger this or that? And it printed the two
24:01
Speaker 2: numbers the AI did and then said that the smaller
24:05
Speaker 2: one was bigger than the larger one. And You're like, well,
24:09
Speaker 2: I can't trust that thing handling like medical billing or
24:13
Speaker 2: something like that if it can't even tell me which
24:15
Speaker 2: number is bigger or smaller than the other. So I
24:19
Speaker 2: go back and forth between hey, this is gonna be
24:21
Speaker 2: really interesting and potentially revolutionary, with hey, it struggles with
24:27
Speaker 2: some really basic stuff and the pictures that it makes
24:32
Speaker 2: are cool, but they're not that cool. So what are
24:34
Speaker 2: we really doing here?
24:35
Speaker 3: I mean, you could apply the same concept though to
24:38
Speaker 3: I know, as much as you've complained about Google Search
24:40
Speaker 3: recently from where it was ten years ago, it's worse,
24:45
Speaker 3: okay in your opinion, But why do you.
24:48
Speaker 2: Think Google Search is better now?
24:51
Speaker 3: How? I don't see how it's so much worse?
24:55
Speaker 2: Well, what do you want? What's something that you what's
24:59
Speaker 2: something you can think about in last day? I'll give
25:01
Speaker 2: you an example.
25:02
Speaker 3: I'll give you a Google that I just did because
25:04
Speaker 3: garlic no a Volkswagen How much does garlic cost? We
25:09
Speaker 3: have a Volkswagen story. I said, what's Germany's largest employer?
25:13
Speaker 3: It's Volkswagen, confirming what I.
25:16
Speaker 4: I could have told him that.
25:19
Speaker 3: I wouldn't go to you for this information.
25:21
Speaker 2: Oh fine, I googled how much does garlic cost? Here's
25:24
Speaker 2: what I get. The entire first page. The entire first
25:27
Speaker 2: page is links to Amazon to buy garlic, not how
25:32
Speaker 2: much to like, but it's links to Amazon, then Walmart.
25:36
Speaker 2: Then I get more popular products, and then like, I
25:40
Speaker 2: get someplace called night Owl Farm selling garlic by the pound,
25:44
Speaker 2: twelve dollars a pound for garlic? How good is your
25:46
Speaker 2: freaking garlic?
25:48
Speaker 1: Like?
25:48
Speaker 2: What are we even doing there? But I can't even
25:52
Speaker 2: get the answer that I want, just hey, how much
25:55
Speaker 2: does garlic cost? Even if I type in how much
25:57
Speaker 2: does garlic cost? On average? All I get are these
26:02
Speaker 2: freaking things that are trying to sell me something instead
26:05
Speaker 2: of actually answering the question. And that's problematic to me
26:09
Speaker 2: when it can't answer a basic thing like that. Oh
26:13
Speaker 2: here garlic festival foods sixty two dollars for a ten
26:15
Speaker 2: pound box of garlic? Great? Who needs that? And I
26:20
Speaker 2: say that as a proud Italian. It goes through ten
26:21
Speaker 2: pounds of garlic a week, but you know, let's pump
26:25
Speaker 2: the brakes a little bit.
26:27
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27:26
Speaker 2: I'm also I'm gonna stick with this garlic thing just
27:29
Speaker 2: because this is it's really cooking my grits here, So
27:34
Speaker 2: I get this aioverview from Google. The price of garlic
27:37
Speaker 2: can vary depending on the variety, quantity, and whether it's organic.
27:40
Speaker 2: Retail garlic typically sells for a dollar fifty to two
27:43
Speaker 2: fifty a pounds.
27:44
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm looking at that too. That's not accurate, Yeah,
27:49
Speaker 4: isn't it usually like ninety nine cents for ahead of garlic.
27:52
Speaker 2: I usually get anywhere between like seventy five and a dollar.
27:56
Speaker 2: But ahead of garlic does not weigh a pound, So
27:58
Speaker 2: like that's just not right first off, and then like
28:01
Speaker 2: you go down even further. Fresh garlic typically, it says,
28:05
Speaker 2: for example, Walmart sells fresh garlic bulbs for around sixty
28:08
Speaker 2: six cents each or four to fourteen a pounds. The
28:10
Speaker 2: answers contradict themselves within the very AI overview, like you
28:16
Speaker 2: can't be like, well, it's typically this. And then Walmart,
28:19
Speaker 2: which is probably like the low cost provider or close
28:23
Speaker 2: to it. They're the biggest grocer in the country by scale.
28:26
Speaker 2: They have to be close to the lowest pricing. You're like, oh,
28:29
Speaker 2: Walmart's four to fourteen a pounds, so why are you
28:30
Speaker 2: telling me a dollar fifty to two fifty a pound?
28:32
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's wrong.
28:33
Speaker 2: This is my problem with generative AI is that it sucks.
28:38
Speaker 3: Man.
28:38
Speaker 4: You can buy fresh cut garlic peel that shaws for
28:42
Speaker 4: three bucks, so you're paying the extra two plus dollars
28:47
Speaker 4: to peel it.
28:48
Speaker 3: Peel it?
28:48
Speaker 2: Really right? Ok Like what what do we realize that's
28:53
Speaker 2: a whole different problem. That's a whole different problem. Like,
28:57
Speaker 2: come on, just peel the thing and the one that's
29:00
Speaker 2: still bothers me more than anything else is Okay. So
29:02
Speaker 2: I want to take the family apple picking. Why does
29:05
Speaker 2: it cost me more to pick the apples if I'm
29:07
Speaker 2: doing the labor because I can get the apples cheaper
29:10
Speaker 2: at the store. And I say this to someone who's
29:13
Speaker 2: an unabashed fan of apple picking, I'll pay the extra money.
29:17
Speaker 4: Someone's saying you have to use the right AI per thing.
29:20
Speaker 4: For example, chat GBT wasn't trained in math, well exactly,
29:24
Speaker 4: but but even like Google's trying to give me AI
29:29
Speaker 4: answers and they're not right, you know, like quantity garlic
29:35
Speaker 4: can be sold in a variety of quantities, Tucker, how do.
29:37
Speaker 2: You typically buy garlic head? Exactly? Garl can be sold
29:41
Speaker 2: in a variety of quantities, such as two ounces, two pounds,
29:44
Speaker 2: eight ounces, or twelve ounces. Walk into any store and
29:46
Speaker 2: be like, hey, can I get twelve ounces of garlic?
29:48
Speaker 2: And they'll be like, I don't know how to do that.
29:51
Speaker 4: Just take a thing a garlic and leave.
29:53
Speaker 2: We'll pay and leave. This is the entire first page
29:56
Speaker 2: of Google. Like, without scrolling, all I can see is
29:59
Speaker 2: the AI result, and it's useless. So this is what
30:04
Speaker 2: I'm talking about when I say that Google kind of sucks.
30:07
Speaker 3: Yeah, Paul.
30:10
Speaker 2: Defending Google. What's something else that we can go?
30:12
Speaker 1: Here?
30:13
Speaker 2: I'll duck Duck got It's not just Google. Like you
30:15
Speaker 2: go to duck duck go and be like, how long
30:19
Speaker 2: does it it take to get to the moon? A
30:23
Speaker 2: couple hours? Do I get an AI result?
30:27
Speaker 4: No?
30:27
Speaker 2: I don't. I do actually get from space dot com
30:30
Speaker 2: how long does it take to get to the moon?
30:32
Speaker 2: So I get that. Let me try the garlic thing.
30:36
Speaker 4: Dude, they sell garlic in space?
30:39
Speaker 2: Probably not?
30:41
Speaker 4: They grow garlic space.
30:43
Speaker 2: Okay, here we go. I get garlic price in the
30:47
Speaker 2: US November twenty twenty four market prices. That's at least
30:50
Speaker 2: a little bit more useful. The second thing, how much
30:53
Speaker 2: does garlic cost from Chef's resource USDA e ers fruit
30:57
Speaker 2: and vegetable prices. This is more relevant now. Then, Hey,
31:03
Speaker 2: here's some AI crap that you generated that is wrong
31:06
Speaker 2: and links to Amazon to buy garlic. Sorry, Paul, I
31:11
Speaker 2: didn't mean to do that. I feel like I just
31:12
Speaker 2: spent the last fifteen minutes of ripping on You.
31:14
Speaker 3: Were close to a break.
31:16
Speaker 2: I'm sorry. It's not your fault. Let's take a quick
31:20
Speaker 2: break here. When we come back, we'll do stack Roulette.
31:22
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31:57
Speaker 4: A couple of follow up texts on our cushion to
32:00
Speaker 4: hear boys out of the six three Earlier this year,
32:04
Speaker 4: I wanted to find out how to kill a particular
32:07
Speaker 4: weed that was overtaking our property. Google AI gave me
32:10
Speaker 4: suggestions on how do I encourage its growth. That was
32:13
Speaker 4: matt in New Hampshire there and then then it.
32:15
Speaker 2: Was it was like a Costanza type thing where if
32:19
Speaker 2: you just do the opposite of that, yeah, that's all.
32:21
Speaker 4: That's all. And then somebody else on the nine seven
32:24
Speaker 4: eight said you have to request duck assist and it's
32:27
Speaker 4: not in your face like Google.
32:29
Speaker 2: Is duck assist.
32:31
Speaker 3: Yeah, duck duck and AI thing for I assume that's what.
32:35
Speaker 2: Okay, Yeah, yeah, yeah, it's a duck assist. So there's that. Paul,
32:40
Speaker 2: what do you have for me for stack Roulette.
32:43
Speaker 3: We've got a floor. A woman who led a two
32:46
Speaker 3: hundred million dollars ponzi schime sentenced to twenty years in prison.
32:51
Speaker 3: So Johanna Garcia received the maximum possible sentence for one
32:55
Speaker 3: kind of conspiracy to commit wire fraud and mail fraud.
33:00
Speaker 3: Johanna Garcia had started up MJ Capital, which MJ Capital,
33:05
Speaker 3: which was established back in twenty twenty, promised that it
33:08
Speaker 3: would generate an annual rate of one hundred and twenty
33:12
Speaker 3: percent annual rate one hundred twenty percent to its investors.
33:17
Speaker 3: It was cleany, is that good? That's tremendous. That is
33:21
Speaker 3: numbers that if you're an investor, you really should raise
33:25
Speaker 3: more than eyebrows a couple two three eyebrows on that
33:28
Speaker 3: kind of rate of return. They were going to be
33:31
Speaker 3: making merchant loans to businesses, short term loans and high
33:36
Speaker 3: cost loans called merchant cast advances. She ran this for
33:41
Speaker 3: several years, netting one hundred ninety one million over a
33:45
Speaker 3: period from October twenty twenty through August twenty twenty one.
33:49
Speaker 3: Of that, investors lost nearly ninety million. And of course
33:53
Speaker 3: it wouldn't be complete with a fraud or a negative
33:56
Speaker 3: story without Wells Fargo again in the mix here for
34:00
Speaker 3: Fannas for failing to properly adhere to their anti Monday
34:05
Speaker 3: launery concerns, as they were the bank behind this MJA capital.
34:09
Speaker 3: So just a really a traggic story obviously of course
34:13
Speaker 3: for investors, but something that it's gonna continue. There's always
34:17
Speaker 3: gonna be you know, bad apples out there, and this
34:20
Speaker 3: one was a doozy.
34:21
Speaker 2: It's Yeah, it's kind of wild here, especially the part
34:27
Speaker 2: that I found amazing on this. So the partner in
34:29
Speaker 2: this was someone by the name of Pavel Ramon Ruiz Hernandez,
34:33
Speaker 2: and he had already pled guilty. He pleaded guilty to
34:36
Speaker 2: this in April of twenty three and was sentenced to
34:40
Speaker 2: nine years and two months in prison. But the other
34:43
Speaker 2: part of this, like they kind of buried the lead
34:45
Speaker 2: on this quote, prosecutor said Tuesday. After MJ Capitol was
34:49
Speaker 2: shut down by the FBI and Securities and Exchange Commission, Garcia,
34:52
Speaker 2: Ruiz Hernandez and others launched a new similar ponzi scheme
34:55
Speaker 2: in the fall of twenty twenty one.
34:57
Speaker 3: It reantied up.
34:59
Speaker 1: Like what.
35:01
Speaker 2: I mean, I just.
35:05
Speaker 3: It.
35:06
Speaker 2: It really takes a little bit of hootspa to be like, Hey,
35:11
Speaker 2: I got caught Ponzie. What are we gonna do? Watch
35:13
Speaker 2: another one before.
35:14
Speaker 3: We go to jail. You were shut down by the
35:17
Speaker 3: FBI and the SEC. We're not talking about some podunk
35:21
Speaker 3: local police unit.
35:23
Speaker 2: You at that point, like, what what do you think
35:26
Speaker 2: is gonna happen? They've already gotten you once. You think
35:28
Speaker 2: they're just gonna be like, wow, We're just gonna stop
35:30
Speaker 2: paying attention to you while you wait for trial.
35:33
Speaker 3: You know, chuck, cross that case off the list, all set,
35:36
Speaker 3: We'll never look at them again.
35:38
Speaker 2: So yeah, that part to me was just like, Wow,
35:41
Speaker 2: you got caught once and you decided to immediately start
35:44
Speaker 2: a new one. That's not something that you typically see.
35:48
Speaker 2: So man, we've just been seeing all new lows in
35:52
Speaker 2: terms of fraud this year. It's it's just been quite honestly,
35:56
Speaker 2: I've said this before, there really is just not enough
36:01
Speaker 2: shame in the world today.
36:03
Speaker 3: M M.
36:04
Speaker 2: Like there's a real problem when you're just like, hey,
36:07
Speaker 2: I got caught ponziing and I'm gonna do it again,
36:11
Speaker 2: and then not.
36:12
Speaker 3: Within no time, no time at all. Didn't let it
36:15
Speaker 3: cool off, you know, like in those you know mafia
36:18
Speaker 3: shows something, Hey, you know we're catching heat right now,
36:21
Speaker 3: slow down a little bit, No, right back at it.
36:24
Speaker 2: Uh So Jaguar who last year, uh last week, rather
36:28
Speaker 2: I kind of poop pooed the fact that they went
36:30
Speaker 2: through this reband rebrand where ay their rebrand video didn't
36:34
Speaker 2: have any cars in it, and b they're now capitalizing
36:38
Speaker 2: the J G and U of Jaguar and getting rid
36:41
Speaker 2: of the leaping Jaguars their image. They unveiled a concept
36:46
Speaker 2: car I think it was over the weekend, and it's
36:51
Speaker 2: kind of like, okay, so concept cars. A. If you're
36:54
Speaker 2: not familiar with the the terminology their cars that companies
36:58
Speaker 2: never build because it's just like, hey, here's what we
37:01
Speaker 2: might look like in the future. And A this shows
37:05
Speaker 2: like nothing because they're basically saying we're not gonna build this,
37:09
Speaker 2: but we needed to show you something. B it looks horrible.
37:15
Speaker 2: And see, I still don't know who this is targeted at,
37:19
Speaker 2: Like we talked about this last week, where like they're
37:24
Speaker 2: trying to get towards Hey, we want, you know, younger
37:26
Speaker 2: people to buy our cars. The worst thing that you
37:29
Speaker 2: can do when trying to convince your target demo to
37:32
Speaker 2: do anything is make something that appeals directly to them.
37:35
Speaker 2: I mentioned you remember cy on the Toyota brand. MM
37:38
Speaker 2: it was geared towards young people. What happened. Young people
37:40
Speaker 2: didn't buy them because they don't want to be like
37:44
Speaker 2: talked down to as oh, like you need to have
37:46
Speaker 2: something that's for you, No, they want young people want
37:49
Speaker 2: things that older people have, and older people want things
37:52
Speaker 2: that younger people have. So if you want to attract
37:55
Speaker 2: younger people. Don't build a car that you think is
37:58
Speaker 2: what younger people would like.
38:01
Speaker 3: Yeah, they you really don't see a lot of Jaguars
38:03
Speaker 3: around anymore.
38:04
Speaker 2: No, their sales are down like sixty percent here over
38:07
Speaker 2: not like decade over decade in the US. It's uh,
38:10
Speaker 2: they have problems, but I don't think this is the answer.
38:13
Speaker 2: Is the problem, Well, it's another problem. They got a
38:16
Speaker 2: few problems, not as many as the double Ponzi people.
38:20
Speaker 2: We're done for the day. We'll see you tomorrow on
38:22
Speaker 2: the Financial Exchange