Latest / 360 with Katie Woolf / ASPI Defence Strategy and Capability Senior Analyst Dr Malcolm Davis gives an update on the Russia/Ukraine conflict and what it means for us and the rest of the world

Transcript

ASPI Defence Strategy and Capability Senior Analyst Dr Malcolm Davis gives an update on the Russia/Ukraine conflict and what it means for us and the rest of the world · 360 with Katie Woolf

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Now we know that sanctions are being imposed on Russia
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: around the world as that severe response to what the
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: Prime Minister Scott Morrison says is a brutal, unprovoked and
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: illegal invasion of Ukraine. So reports of Russian troops invading
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: ukraine territory and explosions in several cities have been flooding
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: the media in the last twenty four hours as the
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  Speaker 1: Russian President Vladimir Putin authorized that military operation in Ukraine's
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  Speaker 1: Donbas region. Now joining me on the line is the
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  Speaker 1: Australian Strategic Policy Institute's Defense Strategy and Capability Senior analyst,
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  Speaker 1: Doctor Malcolm Davis. Good morning to you, Malcolm. Good morning,
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  Speaker 1: Thank you so much for your time this morning.
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  Speaker 2: Malcolm.
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  Speaker 1: I know there will be a lot of people listening
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  Speaker 1: this morning who are wondering what does the conflict mean
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  Speaker 1: for the countries involved.
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  Speaker 2: Look, I think it's very clear that Russia has launched
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  Speaker 2: a major war against Ukraine, even taking a massive air,
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  Speaker 2: land and sea operation that will see Ukraine potentially dismembered,
• 1:04
  Speaker 2: its government removed from power by brute force, and its
• 1:07
  Speaker 2: territory and its national borders change through force. So it's
• 1:12
  Speaker 2: a very serious crisis. It's the most dangerous and the
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  Speaker 2: most violent war in Europe since the Second World War.
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  Speaker 1: It's pretty scary, you know, for everybody sort of just
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: sitting and watching here in Australia and in other countries
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: around the world. But then when you look at Europe,
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  Speaker 1: it must be an incredibly frightening time.
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  Speaker 2: Well, they really haven't been exposed to this thought of crisis,
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  Speaker 2: certainly since the Balkan Wars and the nineteen nineties, but
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  Speaker 2: really since the end of the Cold War. Certainly during
• 1:43
  Speaker 2: the Cold War there was always the risk of written
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  Speaker 2: invasion by the warsaw packs led by the Soviet Union
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  Speaker 2: of NATO, but both sides kind of reached an equilibrium
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  Speaker 2: there and stared off at each other and that was stable.
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  Speaker 2: But now we're in a situation in Europe where there's
• 2:00
  Speaker 2: no real effective deterrence and so Russia is now moving
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  Speaker 2: bit of an aggressive invasion of Ukraine. And the concern
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  Speaker 2: that I think is that on everyone's minds is what next?
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  Speaker 2: Does this extend beyond Ukraine?
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  Speaker 1: And I think that your spot on there, that is
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  Speaker 1: what everybody's wondering is what is next? And I guess
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  Speaker 1: it's hard to anticipate what anyone's going to do, particularly
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: of Vladimir Putin. But Malcolm, how do you see this
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  Speaker 1: playing out?
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  Speaker 2: Well, it's at the moment the Russians seem to be
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  Speaker 2: having a hard time advancing in the north of Ukraine
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  Speaker 2: from Belarus and Russia. The Ukrainians seem to be defending
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  Speaker 2: that area well, while whereas in the south the Russians
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  Speaker 2: are making very quick gains. So I think the Russians
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  Speaker 2: clearly seek to take Kiev, the capital. They're already fighting
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  Speaker 2: around Kakiv in the east near the Donbas region, and
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  Speaker 2: they also probably want to take the south coast, which
• 2:59
  Speaker 2: we're in taking Mriopol and then across to Odessa. And
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  Speaker 2: I think that at that point, you know, the Russians
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  Speaker 2: would probably declare victory having removed the government, and then
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  Speaker 2: impose a puppet regime in Kiev. The challenge of cause,
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  Speaker 2: the broader challenge is how does Europe respond to that?
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  Speaker 2: And I think you have to think back to Winston
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  Speaker 2: Churchill's Iron Curtain speech where he talked about the growing
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  Speaker 2: threat of war in Europe once again after the Second
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  Speaker 2: World War. I think the same thing is going to
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  Speaker 2: face in Europe now. We are going to be facing
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  Speaker 2: the potential for a prolonged period of increased risk of
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  Speaker 2: confrontation with Russia across NATO's eastern frontier. So if you
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  Speaker 2: think back to the Cold War, the front line was
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  Speaker 2: places like the Thorder Gap and the North German Plane. Well,
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  Speaker 2: now it's the Slwauki Gap in Poland, it's the Baltic
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  Speaker 2: states of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia. It's the Black Sea
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  Speaker 2: in Romania, and that's where we have to defend.
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  Speaker 1: And Malcolm, I guess it probably sounds like a silly question,
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  Speaker 1: but what does that mean for the rest of the world.
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  Speaker 2: It means we are back into a confrontational multipolar order.
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  Speaker 2: We are facing both Russia and China as to peer adversaries,
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  Speaker 2: totalitarian authoritarian states that are challenging Western liberal democracy, challenging
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  Speaker 2: the rules based order. And so for Europe they're facing
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  Speaker 2: Russia as an immediate nuclear threat to their security. For
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  Speaker 2: the Indo Pacific region, we are facing a rising China
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  Speaker 2: that clearly has ambitions to take Taiwan and thus has
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  Speaker 2: the potential for a wider war there sometime in this decade.
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  Speaker 2: So we are facing very difficult times that the days
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  Speaker 2: of the peaceful post Cold War era are gone.
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  Speaker 1: And we did catch up with John Coyn a little
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  Speaker 1: bit earlier in the week and talked about the Northern
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  Speaker 1: Territories relationship, of course, or our strategic importance. I think
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  Speaker 1: you'd say as well within the world. And then when
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  Speaker 1: you talk about the Asia region and indeed China, you know,
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  Speaker 1: do you think I guess it's such a difficult one
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  Speaker 1: for so many of us sitting at home wondering how
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  Speaker 1: this is all going to sort of play out. I mean,
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  Speaker 1: do you think that any of the sanctions and things
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  Speaker 1: that have been imposed on Russia by other countries at
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  Speaker 1: this point in time, and any further sanctions, do you
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  Speaker 1: think that they're likely to have much of an impact.
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  Speaker 2: Look, they'll have an impact. They won't deter Russia from
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  Speaker 2: taking further aggressive steps in Ukraine, but they certainly will
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  Speaker 2: increase the cost of those further steps for Russia. But
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  Speaker 2: Russia's probably gained those in to its planning, and it's
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  Speaker 2: got a large war chest of about six hundred and
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  Speaker 2: eighty billion dollars in financial reserves, and it's got assistance
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  Speaker 2: from China and Iran to avoid the worst of sanctions
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  Speaker 2: in terms of energy and also as this war continues,
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  Speaker 2: the cost of oil is skyrocketing and so that benefits
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  Speaker 2: Russia's economy. So I think that the sanctions are not
• 6:01
  Speaker 2: going to be as effective as everyone had hoped they
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  Speaker 2: would be, and so we do then have to prepare
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  Speaker 2: for that prolonged period of confrontation in Europe akin to
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  Speaker 2: the Cold War.
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  Speaker 1: And Malcolm, there'll be people wondering as well. There has
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: been that discussion about the gas pipeline and also, like
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  Speaker 1: you said, they're oil. What kind of impact is that
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  Speaker 1: going to have for the rest of the world.
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  Speaker 2: Well, I think that the increasing global tensions tend to
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  Speaker 2: drive the cost of oil up, so therefore the average
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  Speaker 2: person will fill that on the street in terms of
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  Speaker 2: the price of petrol and fuel. There may be increasing uncertainty,
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  Speaker 2: for example, if there is a more contested, dangerous environment,
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  Speaker 2: particularly in terms of possibilities of unrest in the Middle East,
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  Speaker 2: you know, are we going to the interruptions of critical
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  Speaker 2: resources coming out of the Middle East. So that's why
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  Speaker 2: I think it's really important for Australia to develop sovereign
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  Speaker 2: supply chains and to try to insulate itself off the
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  Speaker 2: risk of being too reliant on one source of critical
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  Speaker 2: energy resources.
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome. Do you think we're going to see more money
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  Speaker 1: and more infrastructure invested in places like the Northern Territory
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  Speaker 1: which do have that strategic importance when it comes to defense.
• 7:19
  Speaker 2: Absolutely, I mean the Northern Territory is now far more
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  Speaker 2: important in strategic terms than what it used to be
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  Speaker 2: during the Cold War because we are facing here in
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  Speaker 2: the Indo Pacific. We're facing the challenge of China, and
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  Speaker 2: so therefore the Northern Territory in particular is critical in
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  Speaker 2: terms of supporting not only the Australian Defense Force operations
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  Speaker 2: but also allies such as the United States and Japan
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  Speaker 2: in terms of operating from the Northern Territory to counterbalance
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  Speaker 2: and deter arising China. So I do think that it's
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  Speaker 2: really essential for the Federal government to start investing massively
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  Speaker 2: in the Northern Territory's economy, particularly in terms of the
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  Speaker 2: defense economy, in boosting the effectiveness of facilities, opening up
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  Speaker 2: new supply chains for critical resources, and having the ability
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  Speaker 2: to use the Northern Territory as the key forward staging
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  Speaker 2: point for any future military operations in the end of Pacific.
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  Speaker 1: Well, tell you what I know, For you know a
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  Speaker 1: lot of people that listen to this show who are
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  Speaker 1: maybe of an older generation, they have maybe lived through
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: through situations like this before. Some of the younger generation
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  Speaker 1: will be feeling quite scared this morning and uncertain, I suppose,
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  Speaker 1: particularly after what we've discussed. It is an uncertain time
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  Speaker 1: around the world right now, though, isn't it? It?
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  Speaker 2: Certainly is. I mean, I think we are very much
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  Speaker 2: back in comfrontational world order. As I said, the days
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  Speaker 2: of the peaceful post Cold War era are long gone,
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  Speaker 2: and we have to be ready for some really challenging
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  Speaker 2: years ahead in terms of how we respond to both
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  Speaker 2: China and also Russia at a global level. And some
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  Speaker 2: would say we're in a pre war period in terms
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  Speaker 2: of the Indo Pacific in terms of how China relates
• 9:02
  Speaker 2: to Taiwan. I think that's quite correct. So we have
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  Speaker 2: to be ready for some very serious challenges coming towards
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  Speaker 2: us on the horizon.
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  Speaker 1: And do you think that the likes of Russia and
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  Speaker 1: China still see the US as being that dominant power
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  Speaker 1: that they once were.
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  Speaker 2: Oh? Look, I think they recognize that the US is
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  Speaker 2: not to be taken lightly and clearly, depending on how
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  Speaker 2: the Biden administration responds to this challenge from Russia in Europe.
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  Speaker 2: I think China will assess its own plans in terms
• 9:36
  Speaker 2: of moves against Taiwan later this decade. It may be
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  Speaker 2: that if the US doesn't respond effectively to the challenge
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  Speaker 2: plosed by Russia, then China might be tempted to accelerate
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  Speaker 2: its plans for taking Taiwan. And so there is that
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  Speaker 2: consequence that if we don't get this right, we could
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  Speaker 2: be facing not only a greater risk of much larger
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  Speaker 2: war in Europe, also a larger war in the in
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  Speaker 2: the Pacific region that would then directly affect Australia.
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  Speaker 1: Well, i'll tell you what it's. Yeah, it's it's interesting
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  Speaker 1: to say the least. We really appreciate your time this morning, Malcolm.
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  Speaker 1: I know it's you're probably your expertise and knowledge is
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  Speaker 1: probably being utilized and called upon all around Australia today,
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  Speaker 1: So we really appreciate you having a chat to us
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  Speaker 1: here in Darwin. My pleasure, Thanks Malcolm,