Latest / The SME Stream / Liam Dann: NZ Herald business editor at large on the economic impacts of Donald Trump's presidency

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Liam Dann: NZ Herald business editor at large on the economic impacts of Donald Trump's presidency · The SME Stream

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  Speaker 1: Now Donald Trump has promised Americans he's going to save
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  Speaker 1: the economy and deal with the cost of living. Liam
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  Speaker 1: dan Is the Herald's business editor at large and with
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  Speaker 1: us Now.
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  Speaker 2: Hey, Liam, get ahead.
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  Speaker 1: So is he just going to do it through tax
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  Speaker 1: cuts and tariffs?
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, it sounds like that's the formula. People are
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  Speaker 2: scratching the head of bit as to how it adds up,
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  Speaker 2: because he's promised one account, one count I saw was
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  Speaker 2: twelve different kinds of tax cut on the campaign trail,
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  Speaker 2: which talied up to if he did them all something
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  Speaker 2: like three trillion dollars out of the US revenue, government
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  Speaker 2: revenue over the next ten years. Three trillion dollar US
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  Speaker 2: dollars is quite a lot, and that of course means
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  Speaker 2: you need to well you either need to fund it
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  Speaker 2: from somewhere, you need to borrow a lot more, which
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  Speaker 2: is why bonds.
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  Speaker 1: But he's not so promising to pay down debt.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah. See that. There was a British Prime minister who
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  Speaker 2: tried tried to save all that stuff and it didn't work.
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  Speaker 2: Trust was sunk by the bond markets because the numbers
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  Speaker 2: didn't add up. And the bond markets, as they say,
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  Speaker 2: are the most powerful thing in the universe or in
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  Speaker 2: the known world. Look, yeah, so it's going to be
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  Speaker 2: very interesting. And I guess what the issue is how
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  Speaker 2: much he decides to worry about everything he said on
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  Speaker 2: the campaign trail. There's going to be some more tariffs,
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  Speaker 2: and there's going to be some tax cuts of some sort,
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  Speaker 2: so probably corporate, and maybe that will stimulate the economy
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  Speaker 2: or the rest inside America. Putting aside the tariffs.
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  Speaker 1: I mean, also, his timing is great, right, So he
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  Speaker 1: is taking over presumably as the American economy starts to
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  Speaker 1: pick up, as we start to get inflation under control,
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  Speaker 1: so within a matter of months people will be feeling
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  Speaker 1: better anyway.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, well, tariffs would be a one off, one off bump.
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  Speaker 2: They are inflat, they would be inflationary. I mean, he's
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  Speaker 2: not going to go aheap with the tariff tariffs. So lam, well,
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  Speaker 2: the sixty percent is hard to imagine. You know. You
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  Speaker 2: think he would have to do something to sort of
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  Speaker 2: you know, having having talked about them so much. But
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  Speaker 2: I mean I think the numbers are details, right, He's
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  Speaker 2: not a details guy. So yeah, I think as long
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  Speaker 2: as he makes some move there, you know. But yeah,
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  Speaker 2: so look, does it does it fix the economy. He's
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  Speaker 2: certainly in the right place in the cycle. So it
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  Speaker 2: wasn't a great place for Joe Biden because well, you know,
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  Speaker 2: for the Democrats, because inflation is back in the box technically,
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  Speaker 2: but it doesn't feel like it to people for a while. Yeah,
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  Speaker 2: because you know, you can tell people that the economy
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  Speaker 2: is great, and I think that was part of the
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  Speaker 2: problem that, you know, people were being told that the
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  Speaker 2: US economy was great and they didn't feel like it
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  Speaker 2: was great, and so it just played into that whole
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  Speaker 2: narrative of being told by the establishment that they should
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  Speaker 2: stop complaining.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, totally. It's going to be an interesting one, as
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  Speaker 1: you were just saying to me off there, and we
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  Speaker 1: have to wait until he's an office to really see
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  Speaker 1: what it does.
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  Speaker 2: A lot of speculation over the next few weeks and months,
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  Speaker 2: and of course we could go around in circles in
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  Speaker 2: New Zealand worrying about tariffs and what may or may
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  Speaker 2: not happen for wine growers and so on. But you know,
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  Speaker 2: and and the impact on China. But look at the moment,
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  Speaker 2: markets are very happy, and they're happy because there was
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  Speaker 2: a clear, clean result and also they can wipe tax
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  Speaker 2: hikes off the table and more regulation off the table,
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  Speaker 2: so your KII savers up and you probably don't have
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  Speaker 2: to worry about it till at least January twenty or
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  Speaker 2: whenever the inauguration is. So that's your consolation. Lif If
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  Speaker 2: you don't like Trump, just and enjoy the market. Run.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, to take the money, Liam, Thank you very much.
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  Speaker 1: Appreciate it. Liam Down, the Herald's business editor at large,